Career Averages - Ariane Carnelossi
Career Averages - Piera Rodríguez
Ariane Carnelossi - Fight History
The host picks Souza confidently, stating that she is a little bit better anywhere the fight takes place outside of muscular ability. He notes that Souza is a better striker and a better grappler than Carnelossi, and expects her to cruise to a comfortable decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28.
AJ believes Ketlen Souza has improved significantly since her prior loss to Carnelossi, with sharper boxing, better pressure, and cage cutting. He views Carnelossi as having stagnated, relying on power Muay Thai but lacking technical growth. AJ expects Souza to win a striking clinic, likely by decision, though a finish is possible.
Angelo picks Ketlen Souza, stating she is the better striker and grappler. He believes Souza will pressure forward, get Carnelossi to overcommit, and then secure a takedown. He notes that Souza's bad offensive takedowns are better than Carnelossi's worst takedown defense, and if it goes to the ground, Souza might get a finish.
Big Brady picks Ketlen Souza to win by decision. He notes that Souza has improved since their first fight and is better everywhere, but he has concerns about her fight IQ after her performance against Bruna Brasil where she clinched for 15 minutes instead of finishing. He sees a potential knockout or submission but leans decision.
Ketlen Souza is in her prime and has a nice jab with aggressive volume. Ariane Carnelossi is not a volume striker and wants takedowns, but Souza's takedown defense should hold. Souza will win a decision, as Carnelossi has been inactive and lost last time out.
Ketlen Souza is picked because she is the better striker with power and can grapple. Ariane Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (22%) and cannot grapple. Souza should win by submission or decision, as she has a clear advantage everywhere.
Souza is a better wrestler and grappler than Carnelossi, who hasn't won a real fight since 2021. Carnelossi's only recent win was by DQ, and she was losing that fight. Souza should control the grappling exchanges and win a decision.
Lucrative James picks Ketlen Souza to win the rematch, citing her physical and skill improvements since their 2019 fight. He notes Souza's better conditioning, improved grappling, and recent performances against higher-level competition. He believes Carnelossi's wins since then are unimpressive and that Souza will avenge her loss via decision.
Souza has improved since their first fight, showing better durability and a slicker striking approach. She can wear on Carnelossi with clinch and grappling, and should be able to take Carnelossi's biggest shots. Souza wins a close decision, though the -285 line is too steep.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 60 of 100 | 60% | 79 of 122 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 0 | 6:10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 25 of 76 | 32% | 50 of 106 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 26 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 1 of 17 | 5% | 24 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 11 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 0 | 22 of 31 | 70% | 30 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:49 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Talita Alencar | 60 of 100 | 60% | 34 of 67 | 19 of 23 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 65 | 14 of 15 | 15 of 20 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 25 of 76 | 32% | 10 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 12 of 14 | 25 of 71 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Talita Alencar | 18 of 30 | 60% | 9 of 18 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 of 17 | 5% | 1 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 14 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Talita Alencar | 20 of 39 | 51% | 10 of 25 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 32 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 10 of 35 | 28% | 2 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Talita Alencar | 22 of 31 | 70% | 15 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-250); Carnelossi (+210)
Round 1
After a rousing series of fight cards around the world, the UFC recedes back to the Apex for half of its remaining shows this year. The first of two weekends in a row, the promotion’s headquarters—reportedly with new, revamped internal facilities even including concession stands (that are not open yet)—will play host to UFC Fight Night 263, also known as UFC Vegas 110. For the sixth time in the last eight events, women will kick off the violent festivities. Strawweights take center stage, where a loss will almost certainly save their place on the roster while a defeat does not guarantee another match in the Octagon. Alencar (6-1-1, 2-1 UFC) has reached the final bout of her initial four-fight deal, so this one will matter more than the others. She battles the returning Carnelossi (15-3, 3-2 UFC), who has only competed once in the last three years. The two will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who clocks them in as they bump fists.
Carnelossi comes out of her corner loaded for bear, and she bashes Alencar in the face right off the bat. Alencar bounces back, rebounds off the fencing and pushes out with kicks. She rushes forward behind a right hand to set up a clinch with a body lock takedown attempt, and Carnelossi muscles her around to break it up. Carnelossi scores a short strike on the break, and then walks her retreating countrywoman down. “Sorriso” has her guard up in time to block the single kicks soaring her direction, although a one-two down the pipe gets her attention. Carnelossi goes for her own level change, ultimately hitting a 115-pound wall plus the cage behind her in Alencar. Carnelossi grinds on Alencar when a single-leg effort fails, and she smacks Alencar with short but frustrating overhand rights.
Carnelossi staves off a counter trip attempt, and the two jockey for position twirled around in the tie-up. Alencar puts Carnelossi’s back to the fencing, and she knees her in the stomach when bending over for something. Carnelossi turns her about once more and gives her a few knees to think about on the other side of the equation. This continues, and Alencar is warned for grabbing the fence to keep Carnelossi stuck and has her hand slapped away a few times. Alencar ducks down in pursuit of a single-leg takedown, and she gets it for a second or two before Carnelossi pops back to her feet without issue. Carnelossi punches her way out of the clinch and meanders forwards Alencar, swinging her way until they end up clinching once more. Alencar trips Carnelossi to the floor, and Carnelossi uses her upkicks when hitting the mat to keep Alencar from climbing on top of her. Alencar drops to her knees, and Smith warns Carnelossi for what would be illegal upkicks. The horn sounds with Alencar striking from above.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Like the previous round, Carnelossi plods directly forward to engage, no glove touch in the works. Carnelossi walks through a body kick to put her hands on her opponent, and a right hand opens a tiny cut on the bridge of Alencar’s nose. Alencar swings, and Carnelossi counters her more effectively. Alencar’s front kick is an effective weapon at keeping her foe at bay, but only for a brief time as Carnelossi tends to charge when struck with that blow. She does just that when drilled with a kick down the middle, racing after Alencar and slugging her in the face. Carnelossi ducks down and nearly takes a knee on the chin, and they proceed to bang it out up close and personally. Alencar spins with a back kick when in close proximity, and Carnelossi’s pressure is getting to her as she cannot get space to recover. Carnelossi connects with a hefty low kick that makes Alencar recoil it awkwardly, and she keeps kicking that spot.
Alencar winds up with a huge right hand while taking shots, and she grabs the back of Carnelossi’s head and drives a knee square into it. Alencar hurls Carnelossi to the floor, and she prevents Carnelossi from standing by snapping down on the back of her neck. Carnelossi still manages to force her way upright, and she remains comfortable in the clinch getting her head right after getting stunned. Carnelossi tries to drag the fight to the floor, and Alencar turns the tables and puts her down on the mat. When Carnelossi looks to get up, Alencar hangs on to a kimura that she uses to attempt to sweep. When not looking for that, she elbows Carnelossi in the side of the dome again and again. Carnelossi drops all the way down to pursue a desperate takedown, and Alencar accepts it as she has her legs laced around Carnelossi’s and looks to take her back. Alencar gets the hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke, fastening the short choke under the chin and pulling back. Carnelossi rolls to her side and then stomach, surviving the deep submission and likely being saved by the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Carnelossi appears good to go to start the round despite nearly going out in the end of the previous frame, and she asserts pressure. Carnelossi kicks low to open up a right hand, and she ignores a body kick to hunt “Problem Child” down. Alencar sticks out a right hand, and Carnelossi swarms her with a combination counter. Alencar snaps out a left, but her blows are largely one-and-done while Carnelossi’s volume is giving her fits. Alencar puts three punches together to decent effect, and she fakes a level change after it to get Carnelossi to bite. They trade low kicks, and Carnelossi checks the latter and gives her another one back. As Carnelossi fearlessly walks Alencar down kicking her in the midsection, Alencar snatches the limb out of the air and trips Carnelossi to the floor. Carnelossi prevents Alencar from getting into her guard by pitching upkicks aplenty, and she even threatens briefly with an omoplata shoulder lock setup that ultimately puts her in a worse position than when she started.
Alencar lowers herself down into the side control position, where she slips right to north-south position with Carnelossi scrambling all the while. Carnelossi counters with her own single-leg shot, and Alencar steps over her and sets up an inverted triangle choke. Alencar hammers the side with elbows until Carnelossi explodes to get to her knees and push through the takedown try. Alencar shuts her down and elbows her in the side of the head until pulling guard and getting Carnelossi’s back.
With a minute left in the round, Alencar gets the body triangle secure, and she starts fishing for chokes. Alencar slides her right forearm beneath the chin, and she goes palm-to-palm but it is not crushingly tight. Alencar adjusts her grip, torqueing the choke as hard as she can, and Carnelossi lifts her arm up and dramatically taps out.
This marks the first time that “Sorriso” has been submitted since her pro debut in 2014 against Amanda Ribas. The victorious Alencar puts behind her a five-fight decision or draw stretch, and all of her stoppages remain by RNC.
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 4:36 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Talita Alencar, highlighting her grappling prowess and recent win over Vanessa Demopoulos. He notes Ariane Carnelossi is physically strong but lacks takedown defense and skills. He expects Alencar to get takedowns and control the fight, though he is unsure about spending $9,000 on her in DFS.
Big Brady picks Talita Alencar due to Ariane Carnelossi's terrible takedown defense (14%). He notes Alencar is not the best wrestler but attempts many takedowns and is good on top with solid ground and pound. He also mentions Alencar is a six-time BJJ world champion. The only concern is Alencar's cardio, but he believes Carnelossi will struggle. He predicts a second-round submission.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Carnelossi is very strong but stiff and awkward everywhere. He thinks Alencar's jiu-jitsu will allow her to drag Carnelossi down and control her on the ground, even if her wrestling isn't elite.
Lucrative James picks Talita Alencar, citing her superior wrestling and grappling against Ariane Carnelossi, who has poor takedown defense (14%). He believes Alencar will take Carnelossi down at will and control the fight on the ground. He notes Carnelossi's power and toughness but thinks the skill gap is too large, predicting a decision win for Alencar.
Carnelossi's strength and BJJ black belt should help her stay safe against Alencar, and she will eventually butcher Alencar on the feet to win by TKO. The host is surprised the odds are as wide as they are, implying value on Carnelossi.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi despite Talita Alencar being the favorite. He worries that Alencar's grappling may not be enough to get takedowns consistently, and Carnelossi's physicality and strength could neutralize Alencar's shots. He believes Carnelossi will win on damage if the fight stays standing, predicting an upset decision.
Zane picks Alencar because she is a solid jiu-jitsu fighter with good top control, while Carnelossi is stiff, head-hunts, and is easy to take down. He notes that Alencar's wrestling is clumsy but she finds ways to get to good positions. Carnelossi tends to stay on her back when put there.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 46 of 61 | 75% | 130 of 173 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 13:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 31 of 41 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:20 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 23 of 30 | 76% | 49 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:24 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 50 of 71 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loopy Godinez | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 46 of 61 | 75% | 36 of 49 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 19 | 8 of 12 | 27 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Loopy Godinez | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Loopy Godinez | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 23 of 30 | 76% | 18 of 24 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Loopy Godinez | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 17 of 20 | 85% | 13 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Godinez (-170), Carnelossi (+150)
Round 1
In her entire UFC run that began in 2019, Carnelossi (14-2, 2-1 UFC) has competed three times, thanks in part to injury and major surgery on her back. In comparison, “Loopy” Godinez (7-2, 2-2 UFC) debuted for the UFC in 2021, and this is her fifth walk to the Octagon. The strawweights will square off with oversight from outstanding referee Jason Herzog, and there is no interest in a glove touch before they get after it. Carnelossi comes out throwing, and Godinez answers her with an attempt to clinch, but the Brazilian has no interest in doing so. Carnelossi wades into power punches, and Godinez slips them and grabs hold of Carnelossi’s arm to throw her down to the mat. Godinez goes after an odd-angle choke in a wild scramble, and Carnelossi gets back up for one seconds before “Loopy” pulls her back down. Godinez snags on to a guillotine choke, and she lets go to take Carnelossi’s back when Carnelossi is on her knees. Godinez cranks on an unorthodox neck crank without a hook in, and Carnelossi powers through so that she can pursue a single. Godinez controls Carnelossi’s ankle from behind, disallowing “Sorriso” to sneak out the back door and try anything. Carnelossi crawls her way to the fence, and Godinez follows her and elbows her upside the head as she looks to get a hook in. Carnelossi powers back up with sheer muscle, and Godinez controls her all the way back down to the mat impressively. Godinez hangs on to Carnelossi, tripping her out and taking her for a ride with her hands clasped around Carnelossi’s chest. Godinez slings her down, and Godinez sets up a shoulder choke when Carnelossi defends with a guillotine choke. The Brazilian abandons her own guillotine so she does not fall into a Von Preux, and Godinez keeps her foe down on the mat with that arm-triangle. Godinez works Carnelossi over with knees to the body and punches, mixing in the occasional elbow as she gives Carnelossi fits. Carnelossi is stuck with her head pinned between the floor and the wall, and Godinez pounds her fist into Carnelossi’s face again and again. Godinez works the thigh with elbows, and controls Carnelossi to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez
Round 2
The Brazilian comes out with a left hook, but she is well off the mark when she swings it as Godinez is already backing off to kick the body. Godinez sneaks in a right hand, and Carnelossi is shocked and gets cracked with another that wobbles her as Carnelossi tries to counter. Godinez drives through with a double, slamming “Sorriso” down to the mat with emphasis, and she immediately begins to hammer Carnelossi with brutal elbows. Carnelossi struggles to keep her wits about her, and she slowly covers up and tries to turn the tables, only for Godinez to pressure her to the wall with Carnelossi on her knees. Godinez blasts Carnelossi in the ribs with a few knees, and Carnelossi gives up her back to turn away from the blows. Godinez happily takes it, and she gets both hooks in and starts fishing for a choke. Carnelossi tugs on the fence with fingers and toes in an effort to get some leverage, and Godinez meets a sweep attempt from the Brazilian to pull Carnelossi away from the cage wall. Godinez grips the toes for a possible toe hold, and Carnelossi yanks her foot free and subsequently begins to eat elbows. Godinez, from half guard, goes after a two-on-one wrist lock to wrench Carnelossi either up for a keylock or down for a kimura – whatever works for her, as she is firmly in the driver’s seat. Carnelossi turns to her knees as she breaks the les around her own waist, and she then falls to her back as Godinez goes after an arm-triangle choke. Godinez crushes down with the arm-triangle choke while in half guard, and she tries to step over to side control while squeezing the neck with all her might. Carnelossi is struggling and uses the “answer the telephone” defense to give herself just a little bit of breathing room. Carnelossi sits up and pushes Godinez’ arms back to sit up to her knees, and Godinez answers by aiming for a guillotine choke. Godinez cannot keep Carnelossi down as the last few seconds are on the clock, and when they stand, Godinez cracks her with a right hand for good measure to end the dominant round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Godinez
Round 3
The final round opens with an aggressive Carnelossi, and she throws a right hand and walks straight into a double. Godinez tackles Carnelossi straight to the mat, and she lands straight into side control. Carnelossi turns to her knees, and Godinez punches her in the side of the head when moving. Godinez keeps working the Brazilian with left hands as Carnelossi tries desperately to crawl her way to the fence and stand. Godinez hooks Carnelossi’s legs, and Carnelossi rolls through suddenly for a leglock. Godinez defends well and circles around to return to her position that allows her to land ground-and-pound, and she sucks out Carnelossi’s hips to return her to the floor. They trade short punches, as Carnelossi is leaning her back up against the fence while on her seat. Carnelossi bursts her way upright again, and Godinez ties her up in the clinch to knee and uppercut her repeatedly. “Loopy” decides to put on a show, and she lifts her foe completely up in the air and slams Carnelossi down to the mat. Godinez clings on top and hooks Carnelossi’s legs with her own, and she postures up to elbow Carnelossi a few times as Herzog takes a close look at the action. Godinez continues to grind with elbows, and in half guard she is doing some damage with her strikes. Carnelossi turns to sit up and try to reverse the position, but Godinez meets her every step of the way. Carnelossi eventually stands up, and Godinez knees her, punches her and snags a double to plant Carnelossi right back on the ground to make a statement. Godinez ends the fight with some powerful strikes, and she has likely picked up the biggest win of her career while putting on arguably her best performance to date.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Godinez (30-26 Godinez)
The Official Result
Lupita Godinez def. Ariane Carnelossi via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26)
Angelo picks Loopy Godinez but expresses hesitation, noting that Carnelossi is hard to push around and that Godinez may struggle to get the fight to the ground. He compares the matchup to Carnelossi's previous fights where she won despite losing exchanges. He mentions he may switch his pick after weigh-ins.
Big Brady picks Loopy Godinez to win by decision, but he is leaning and flip-flopped. He thinks the striking is competitive, with Carnelossi having power and volume, but Godinez has better wrestling. Godinez showed good takedowns against Loma Lookboonmee, and Carnelossi has poor takedown defense (25%). Brady believes Godinez can get takedowns and control the fight on top. However, Carnelossi is dangerous and strong, making this a close fight. He edges Godinez but with little confidence.
Cody picks Lupita Godinez, citing her excellent wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Godinez consistently scores multiple takedowns and controls fights. Carnelossi's takedown defense is suspect, and even if she keeps it standing, Godinez has the striking advantage. Cody believes Godinez's wrestling, cardio, and pace will be decisive, and the -170 price is reasonable.
Daniel Levi picks Ariane Carnelossi as a slight underdog, expecting her to pull away down the stretch. He thinks Carnelossi's power and volume will be decisive if she can get back up from takedowns. He is not confident because Godinez may blanket her with wrestling. He does not bet the fight.
The host is very high on Loopy Godinez, calling this his bread and butter spot with a minus 180 favorite in women's MMA. He highlights Godinez's technical wrestling advantage over Carnelossi, who has suspect takedown defense. He expects Godinez to mix in striking to set up takedowns, then grind on top and possibly find a submission. He warns against Godinez striking too much but trusts her boxing if needed. He is considering making this his lock of the night play.
Paul does not make a clear pick. He considered Carnelossi at +200 but the line moved to +150, which scared him off. He notes that Carnelossi's win over Naliang was unimpressive as Naliang gassed. Paul calls it a dogger pass situation and does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Loopy Godinez, trusting her well-rounded skills and potential. He notes that Godinez beat Loma Lookboonmee, who he considers one of the better strawweights, and that her only UFC loss came when moving up in weight. He criticizes Carnelossi's competition and implies she may be using performance-enhancing drugs. He believes Godinez has good enough grappling and striking to win, and that Carnelossi hasn't impressed him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 62 of 119 | 52% | 98 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 76 of 158 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 7:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 37 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 34 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 46 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 30 | 30% | 27 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:33 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Istela Nunes | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 15 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 62 of 119 | 52% | 37 of 88 | 16 of 22 | 9 of 9 | 54 of 109 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 36 of 108 | 33% | 33 of 103 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 100 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 31 of 63 | 49% | 17 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 18 of 52 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 49 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 18 of 29 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 30 | 30% | 8 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 25 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Istela Nunes | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
There are now 10 fights on this maligned UFC Fight Night 195 card, one that is counterprogrammed against Bellator 268 in a few hours. We begin the event at the lightest division on the roster, when Carnelossi (13-2, 1-1 UFC) and her impressive musculature takes on promotional newcomer and fellow countrywoman Nunes (6-1,1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While Nunes is billed as a 7-1 fighter, the first win on her ledger the UFC is listing took place in muay Thai. The night begins thankfully with no nonsense thanks to referee Keith Peterson, and the two strawweights touch gloves before throwing down. Carnelossi immediately opens up with punch combinations, swarming the newcomer with a barrage of strikes. Nunes defends herself and backs away, but “Sorriso” chases her down and slams her in the face with heavy punches. Carnelossi continues to rage forward, and Nunes deftly slips back to land a leg kick, and she counters Carnelossi repeatedly. The two brawl it out and a few punches from Carnelossi draw blood from the nose of her opponent. Carnelossi pursues a takedown as she gets clipped, and Nunes defends the takedown by clearly grabbing the fence repeatedly. Peterson slaps her hand away several times and even grabs hold of it briefly to make her leg go, but she goes right back to grabbing it to stay upright. Peterson allowed a little nonsense in that situation there. Although Carnelossi is finally able to get her down her efforts do not reward her for long as Nunes springs right back up and gains separation. Carnelossi is not going to let her off the hook, as she blitzes towards her opponent with winging punches. She ends up clinching up again when considering a takedown, but the newcomer remains upright but gets jammed into the wire. Carnelossi keeps heavy chest pressure to grind Nunes into the wall, landing a few short shots but otherwise clinging on for dear life. Nunes looks to set up a Thai clinch with her back to the fence, getting off a couple knees and strikes before pushing off with a minute left in the round. Nunes starts spamming front kicks to the body, and they engage in a brief but nasty slugfest, landing flush on one another. Nunes takes a step back, scores a solid one-two and evades the counters. Carnelossi’s strikes are wilder while Nunes tries to compose herself, but defense is at a premium as they both land at a high clip. They tag one another on the chin with powerful punches, and right at the bell, Carnelossi lands flush and has to apologize because it might be after the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nunes
Round 2
The strawweights pick right up where they left off, throwing hammers. Nunes strings a quartet of punches together, and Carnelossi answers with a vengeance throwing looping hooks and clubbing Nunes in the face. Carnelossi’s headhunting approach does allow Nunes to counter her, but the sheer forward momentum of Carnelossi pushes Nunes into the wire. Carnelossi pursues a takedown, and once more Nunes grabs the fence to keep her balance. Peterson sees it but does not say anything, and Nunes walks back up to her feet. Carnelossi embraces the grind up against the wall, with Nunes attempting to frame off and land strikes up the middle as Carnelossi remains pressed tightly to her. Carnelossi ducks down for a single leg takedown, and Nunes looks for a power guillotine on the way down to the mat but bails on it when her backside hits the canvas. Carnelossi keeps her foe’s legs trapped beneath her leg triangle, but Nunes slithers one out and then the other before making her way upright. Nunes stands, and she knees Carnelossi on the chin once, but “Sorriso” does not register the blow as she hangs on with everything she has. Nunes stays busy with her back trapped, punching to the side occasionally, and she sneaks out the side to break free and just miss with a head kick. Nunes pops Carnelossi with a few punches as she backpedals, with the shorter Carnelossi crowding her and never giving her space to breathe. Nunes lets loose with a body kick, and this draws a sharp exhale from her opponent, with the latter appearing to slow. Nunes chains punches into body kicks, and she clips Carnelossi with a right hand before Carnelossi barrels towards her and slams her into the ground. Carnelossi manages to score a few left hands when Nunes is seated against the fencing, and Nunes appears flustered as she cannot get up thanks to Carnelossi’s position on top. Nunes powers back to her feet, but she does not get free before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 3
Nunes begins the round by circling away to escape the power punches from her marauding opponent. Carnelossi attacks without faltering, throwing big punches and connecting more often than not. Nunes sticks and moves, but she cannot evade every one of the hooks coming her way. Nunes pierces the midsection with a few kicks, and she ducks out of the way as Carnelossi charges at her. They both just miss with single power strikes, and Nunes gets off a right hand only to get smacked with a counter that knocks her back into the wall. Carnelossi uses this momentum to go after a single, and Nunes grabs the fence again to try to pull her way up as Peterson slaps at her hand. When Nunes looks to scramble, Carnelossi climbs on to a three-quarter mount before getting a hook in and partially taking Nunes’ back.
Carnelossi hunts for a choke, and she snakes an arm beneath the throat. “Sorriso” senses that this is her moment to strike, and she snags the grip with her other arm to lock the rear-naked choke in completely.
The forearm under the chin, Nunes looks around, fights the grip for a second and then surrenders. The submission win is now just the second of Carnelossi’s career, who lands her first since a keylock in 2016.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Istela Nunes R3 2:57 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Nunes as an underdog but is hesitant due to her three-year layoff and USADA suspension. He notes Nunes is the more technical striker with speed and versatility, while Carnelossi is aggressive and strong but sloppy. He worries about Nunes' timing after the layoff but believes if she finds a rhythm, she will out-strike Carnelossi. He does not bet the moneyline but considers prop bets like plus 3.5 points or win inside distance/decision no action.
Big Brady picks Istela Nunes as a dog, citing her Muay Thai background and technical striking advantage. He notes Carnelossi is hittable with poor striking defense, but acknowledges Nunes has a three-year layoff and questions about her ground game. He is hesitant to bet due to the unknowns, but picks Nunes by decision.
Cody leans toward Carnelossi, noting her strength and physicality. He mentions that Nunes has fought only once in three years due to contract issues with ONE Championship, making her ring rust a concern. He acknowledges Carnelossi's reach disadvantage but thinks her tank-like build and cardio can carry her.
Daniel picks Carnelossi due to her UFC experience and power, comparing her style to Jessica Andrade. He notes that Carnelossi has one-hitter-quitter power that can trouble strawweights, and she rebounded well after a cut stoppage loss. He acknowledges Istela Nunes is scrappy and has finishes, but the USADA suspension and debut questions make him lean toward Carnelossi.
Carnelossi is a forward-pressure brawler who moves forward and throws big bombs, similar to a female John Lineker. Nunes has a long layoff and USADA suspension, making her a question mark. Carnelossi by decision is the play because Nunes is durable and likely to eat shots for 15 minutes.
Paul does not make a clear pick, admitting he is not familiar with Nunes and needs to study the fight more. He provides background on both fighters but does not state a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi due to her superior experience and competition level. He highlights her 'man arms' and physical strength, as well as her proven ground game and stand-up, including a body kick KO. He predicts a ground-and-pound TKO in the second round, noting Carnelossi's cardio and ability to finish late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 36 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 2 | 2:48 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 24 of 32 | 75% | 91 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 3 | 2:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 26 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 2 | 2:25 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 16 of 20 | 80% | 65 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:55 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 21 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 24 of 32 | 75% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Liang Na | 16 of 20 | 80% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This historic night topped off by a title tripleheader will begin in the lightest division in the company, as Carnelossi (12-2, 0-1 UFC) aims for her first UFC win against the debuting “Dragon Girl” Liang (15-4, 0-0 UFC). Whether Liang holds 13 wins or 15 on her ledger may be of some dispute, but she does bring a 100 percent finish rate into this contest, and referee James Folsom may have his work cut out for him early. There is no touch of gloves as the two fighters would prefer introduce one another with their fists, and with a huge pop from the crowd – remember, we are in Jacksonville, Fla., with a packed house -- we are now underway! The two women come out like a house on fire, going berserk with a wild striking flurry. Both women tag the other, and Liang is the one who gets the advantage of the position as she powers through and bullies the Brazilian to her canvas. Liang steps over to secure an arm-triangle choke as she sits in half guard, and Carnelossi kicks off and reverses the position. Liang drags her back down, but “Sorriso” powers up to her feet and tags Liang with a right hand. “Dragon Girl” does not let her off the hook, charging into a takedown attempt as she furiously throws hands. The strikes do enough to keep Carnelossi busy defending, so that Liang can hit a body lock takedown and throw the Brazilian on the canvas again. Carnelossi keeps her guard closed tight, and Liang lifts her up and slams her down hard. Carnelossi opens up and throws her legs up for an armbar, and although she cannot land it, she is able to sweep Liang and put her on her back. Liang threatens with an armbar of her own, and Carnelossi shrugs it off to start raining down strikes from on top. Liang catches an arm when Carnelossi is hammering her with shots, and she locks up an armbar. Carnelossi muscles her way through to break the grip, and Liang is able to turn her over and put the Brazilian on her back. Carnelossi rolls to her knees as she grabs a leg on Liang, and through sheer force of will, she lifts Liang in the air and slams her down. Liang rolls to her knees and gets clubbed in the side of the head, and Carnelossi circles around to take her back. Carnelossi attempts a rear-naked choke, but Liang wildly scrambles and bursts to her feet. Liang does not stay upright for long, as she nails Carnelossi with punches from on top. Carnelossi snags a triangle choke from her back, and she uses it to mount and put Liang on her back. Carnelossi lands serious strikes from above, and she clubs Liang repeatedly until the bell sounds. Liang survives, but she is extremely fatigued just five minutes in.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Round 2
The pace is nowhere near as insane to start off the second frame, as Liang lands a few strikes from a distance. When Carnelossi counters, Liang flips her foot up and slaps Carnelossi in the face. Carnelossi grabs hold of her foe and looks to take the fight down, but Liang is able to put her down. Carnelossi keeps a hook in and is able to retain back control, and she takes the back and hunts for a choke. Liang twists and turns to break the grip, but she falls to her back as Carnelossi climbs into guard and starts with hammerfists.
Carnelossi keeps smashing her growingly exhausted adversary with a barrage of hammerfists, and before long, Folsom intervenes as Liang is no longer able to intelligently defend herself.
Although the stoppage might seem premature to some, the defeated Liang is gasping for air and completely thrashed after that torrid affair. If this performance is any indication, we will be in for quite a night.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Na Liang R2 1:28 via TKO (Punches)
Big Brady picks Carnelossi to win by second-round KO. He notes Carnelossi's takedown defense is strong and she is aggressive, while Liang Na is one-dimensional, always going for takedowns and gassing out if she doesn't get a quick submission. He expects Carnelossi to stuff takedowns and eventually land a knockout after Liang Na tires.
Cody picks Carnelossi, noting her strength and experience against tougher competition. He thinks Liang's grappling attempts will be neutralized by Carnelossi's physicality. He expects Carnelossi to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel picks Ariane Carnelossi because she is a powerful striker who can bully Liang Na on the feet. He notes that Liang Na is a one-dimensional grappler who sells out for submissions, and Carnelossi's brown belt should help her avoid getting caught. He expects Carnelossi to keep the fight standing and possibly get a finish.
I'm picking Liang Na with very little confidence. I think she'll get her grappling game going and possibly pull off a submission in the second or third round. Carnelossi is a brawler like John Lineker, swinging bombs, but Liang has never been knocked out and has been improving at the UFC Performance Institute. Carnelossi's takedown defense and submission game are questionable, so Liang's grappling could be the difference.
Paul picks Carnelossi, citing her physical strength and power. He notes Liang's weak competition and struggles against stronger opponents. He thinks Carnelossi will keep the fight standing and use her strength to overpower Liang. He expects Carnelossi to win by KO or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Ariane Carnelossi over Liang Na. He notes that Carnelossi has known about the matchup longer and is more proven, having kept up with Angela Hill before a cut stoppage. He thinks Liang Na is young and has potential but is taking the fight on short notice and has losses to lesser competition. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Carnelossi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 0 | 72 of 186 | 38% | 83 of 197 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 92 of 184 | 50% | 93 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 32 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 0 | 31 of 76 | 40% | 36 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 39 of 85 | 45% | 39 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angela Hill | 72 of 186 | 38% | 36 of 137 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 23 | 57 of 156 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 92 of 184 | 50% | 60 of 137 | 32 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 57 of 139 | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angela Hill | 28 of 69 | 40% | 13 of 47 | 8 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 49 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 37 of 68 | 54% | 22 of 47 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 46 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Angela Hill | 31 of 76 | 40% | 14 of 54 | 5 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 28 of 69 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 39 of 85 | 45% | 24 of 64 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 68 | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Angela Hill | 13 of 41 | 31% | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane Carnelossi | 16 of 31 | 51% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We continue the theme of a UFC veteran welcoming a debutant to the Octagon as Hill (9-7, 4-7 UFC) faces the surging Carnelossi (12-1, 0-0 UFC) in the strawweight division. Our referee is Fernando Salas Navarro. Carnelossi advances immediately, and gets clipped a few times on the way in by Hill. The Brazilian comes in to clinch, and Hill reverses position while landing several solid knees to the body. They break, but not before Hill cracks her opponent with a sharp right elbow. Carnelossi charges forward again, but Hill is ready on the counter. Carnelossi drops in for a single leg takedown, but Hill defends it well and separates. The Brazilian keeps the pressure coming heavy, walking Hill down and backing her against the fence. Hill circles away, and lands a right hand, but Carnelossi eats it and walks through. A two-punch combination gets through from Hill, and as her corner calls for specific strikes, Hill complies and scores every one. Hill drops in a few hard knees in the clinch, and in the exchange Carnelossi begins to bleed from her forehead. As Carnelossi pushes in, Hill brings up a knee that catches the Brazilian on the chin, but Carnelossi is unfazed. Hill steps in and lands another knee, while avoiding the counter strikes, and then lifts one more up for good measure. Carnelossi slaps in a hard leg kick, and the two women trade hands standing in front of each other. Hill catches Carnelossi with an uppercut, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 2
Carnelossi opens up with a leg kick to begin the round, and seeing its success, she sinks one more. Hill swings with a left-right, and as Carnelossi pushes in, Hill is ready to respond with short knees. As they clinch, again Hill takes the advantage by scoring an elbow on the break. The Brazilian scores a few more leg kicks, and Hill switches stances briefly, and when she does, Carnelossi tags her. Hill wears it well, and circles away while picking her shots. Hill prepares to counter any of Carnelossi's offense with a check knee, and "Sorriso" cracks Hill with a loud body kick. The two trade leather, and some swelling begins to form on The Brazilian's forehead. Hill puts together a few punches, but Carnelossi throws hard and lands on Hill's chin. Carnelossi successfully gets off another low kick, and then while coming forward lands a right over the top. Hill tries for a superman punch, but Carnelossi is ready and throws another leg kick that makes Hill hop around for a second. Hill steps in for an elbow, but Carnelossi clips her with a left hand. The American leads with a knee, and Carnelossi is content to chase her down while loading up on her right hand. Clinched up once more, Hill lands several more knees to the body, and as time expires she leaps in the air and kicks Carnelossi in the midsection.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Carnelossi
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Hill
Round 3
Carnelossi charges forward to begin the final round, and Hill counters her with a right hand and left knee. The Brazilian stalks down Hill, and chains together a several-punch combination but takes a few knees to the body for her trouble. Hill waits for Carnelossi to come in, and times a powerful right elbow that Carnelossi shrugs off. Hill digs with a left to the body, and Carnelossi tags her with a few punches before clinching up. Hill spins out and slices the Brazilian with a huge elbow that splits her forehead open. The cut, which is placed directly above Carnelossi's left eyebrow and is about an inch wide, immediately begins pouring blood. Navarro calls in the doctor, who remarks the cut is too big and calls it, so the fight is over. Hill records the TKO victory, earning her first stoppage win inside the Octagon.
The Official Result
Angela Hill def. Ariane Carnelossi R3 1:56 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)?
Piera Rodríguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 107 of 231 | 46% | 111 of 237 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 77 of 144 | 53% | 91 of 160 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 40 of 85 | 47% | 41 of 87 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 33 of 43 | 76% | 37 of 47 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 37 of 83 | 44% | 38 of 84 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 22 of 64 | 34% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 107 of 231 | 46% | 52 of 163 | 45 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 72 of 188 | 34 of 42 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 77 of 144 | 53% | 47 of 110 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 65 of 132 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 40 of 85 | 47% | 18 of 59 | 16 of 19 | 6 of 7 | 29 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 33 of 43 | 76% | 13 of 23 | 9 of 9 | 11 of 11 | 30 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 46 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 48 | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 37 of 83 | 44% | 19 of 58 | 16 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 26 of 70 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 22 of 64 | 34% | 18 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.
Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.
Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.
James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.
The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.
Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.
The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.
Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 64 of 150 | 42% | 81 of 171 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 56 of 103 | 54% | 86 of 139 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 21 of 53 | 39% | 27 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Ketlen Souza | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 33 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 64 of 150 | 42% | 28 of 92 | 23 of 37 | 13 of 21 | 48 of 126 | 16 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 56 of 103 | 54% | 29 of 72 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 18 | 48 of 92 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 55 | 38% | 7 of 31 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 19 of 32 | 59% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 16 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 22 of 42 | 52% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 36 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 16 of 28 | 57% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 21 of 53 | 39% | 10 of 32 | 7 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 21 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ketlen Souza | 21 of 43 | 48% | 11 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 20 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-190); Souza (+160)
Round 1
It’s a lovely day for combat. For those that missed the wonderous confines of the UFC Apex, you will find that the facility has upgraded since it was last seen on a broadcast. Twenty-four combatants tonight will break it in, starting with two ladies in the strawweight division needing a win to either stay above .500 or exceed that benchmark. Rodriguez (10-2, 3-2 UFC) is the one who could drop to an even UFC record should she fall, while Brazil’s Souza (15-5, 2-2 UFC) could go for a victory to stay in the good graces of the matchmakers. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep things genial during the mutual melee, bearing witness to a glove touch after clocking them in. Away we go.
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Souza quickly claims the center of the cage, and it is Rodriguez who starts first with a low kick. Souza immediately replies with one back, and they pitch them at one another to find their leg range. Souza smacks Rodriguez with one that makes her recoil her leg awkwardly, and then checks the comeback. The low kicks are primarily the only strikes thrown the first minute, with Rodriguez circling along the outside as she tries to look for a jab as well. When Souza connects with her own jab, Rodriguez steps in and knees her in the body a few times before backing off. Rodriguez then jams a front kick to the body and ties Souza up again to deliver a few knees, ending with a trip attempt that fails. Souza disengages and works her way forward, clipping Rodriguez with two hooks and a step-in knee. Souza drives through two more hooks on the chin, her left hand marking up Rodriguez’ nose in the process. Rodriguez prods out jabs and front kicks, and she scores her own left hand that gets Souza’s attention. The two tie up in the middle of the cage, and Rodriguez blasts the body with several knees and hacks with elbows upstairs until Souza pushes her way out.
Souza walks into another clinch, eating a knee or two as Rodriguez is able to find her range properly. Rodriguez walks through a one-two to shoot in for a double-leg takedown, hitting it fairly easily and planting the Brazilian on her back in the open cage. Souza is able to acquit herself well on her back, defending from much damage and pushing Rodriguez off of her. Souza tries a whipping kick off her back to the body, and she uses it to explode her way to her feet and kick Rodriguez in the liver. They clash legs throwing simultaneous low kicks, and Rodriguez recovers quicker and wings two hooks. Souza responds with a spinning wheel kick try, and Rodriguez blasts through her hips with a double and puts Souza down again. Souza is quick to pursue a kimura off her back, using the position to also work her leg around the side to set up a back take. Rodriguez hangs on in the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
A glove touch sets the stage for them to commence, and Rodriguez immediately strides forward and pumps several knees to the midsection. Souza shoves her away and gets off a left hook, but Rodriguez is there to answer her with more knees to the gut. Rodriguez shoots for a double but ends up running into a Brazilian wall, one that kicks her in the body. Rodriguez checks a kick to come out behind her jab, and she puts three punches together ending with a solid right hand. She strings a couple more together, stinging Souza with a left hook and crashing forward for a double. Souza is dragged to her feet but bursts back upright before long. When Souza leaps at her opponent with a knee, Rodriguez catches her midair and dumps her to the ground with a takedown. Rodriguez punches Souza in the side and back, and Tognoni warns her for striking the spine.
Rodriguez sits in half guard, dropping down short punches until Souza throws up a leglock attempt. The submission setup allows her to scramble and fight back to her feet, where she clubs the Venezuelan with a left hand before pursuing her own shot. Rodriguez puts her back to the wall to defend it, and Souza spins with an elbow that catches her on the chin. Rodriguez slips and falls over, and she pops back up and nails Souza with a spinning back fist in a “two can play that game” message. Souza pushes Rodriguez to the wall and ties her leg up for a body lock and trip attempt, and Rodriguez is able to keep her balance on the first full-throated try. Tognoni asks for more action as the shot fails and it results in a stalemate against the wall. Souza looks for an ankle pick, and Rodriguez spins her around and puts her to the fencing. Souza breaks free at the 10-second clapper, and she takes two punches upstairs and a low kick before getting taken down from a single-leg takedown. The round ends as soon as Souza’s backside hits the mat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The strawweights clap hands to reintroduce themselves once more, and strikes fly from both ends. Rodriguez hammers the body with a knee and considers a takedown after it, but she abandons it and gets kicked multiple times on the outside. Souza wings two hooks at her, and she hops away from a sweeping calf kick. Rodriguez gets off a loud leg kick and takes a pecking jab to the nose, and she gives Souza a knee to think about. Rodriguez bowls her opponent over with not such much technique and more forward momentum and fatigue for both of them. Souza rolls through to get back up, and she pushes Rodriguez to the wall and goes for a single. Rodriguez shuts it down easily and circles off, connecting with an inside low kick to stop Souza’s forward charge. Rodriguez pops her with a few punches, takes a body kick and aims a right hand to the waist. Souza absorbs a right hand and checks a kick, pushing away Rodriguez who tries for a step-in vertical elbow.
The two crash together with strikes, and it is Rodriguez who lands a few times. Souza kicks her foe in the body, and Rodriguez fires back in kind. Souza snaps the head back with a left hand, and Rodriguez flicks out her jab a few times to set up a head kick that crashes into the Brazilian’s dome. Souza is tough as nails, swinging back with a vengeance, ending a combo of fists with a jump knee. Rodriguez shakes it off and drives two punches into the jaw before changing levels to complete a double. “La Fiera” lands on top in a partial half guard position, using the top placement to hold Souza down and keep her flat on her back. Rodriguez advances to side control, retaining her smothering approach while controlling rather than attacking. As time is about to run out, Rodriguez drops down a few elbows to punctuate the performance. Both women raise their arms in the air when the match ends, leaving it all in the hands of the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Piera Rodriguez def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 26 of 55 | 47% | 67 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 36 of 64 | 56% | 85 of 137 | 8 of 10 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 10:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 31 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 24 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 21 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 20 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 40 of 67 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 26 of 55 | 47% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 30 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 36 of 64 | 56% | 26 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 26 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 18 of 30 | 60% | 12 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 19 of 31 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 9 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 19 | 31% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 12 of 19 | 63% | 6 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josefine Lindgren Knutsson | 5 of 14 | 35% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 |
Angelo picks Knutsson as the better striker who will use range and touch up Rodriguez from the outside. He notes Knutsson's forward pressure, combinations, and leg kicks, but also mentions her poor takedown defense. However, he is betting on Rodriguez via the plus 3.5 round spread because the odds are too wide for a 2-to-1 favorite, and he expects Rodriguez to win at least one round.
Big Brady picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (Cansen) to win by decision. He believes Cansen's striking is superior and that she will keep the fight standing, stuffing takedowns from Rodriguez. He notes Cansen's takedown defense is good and expects her volume to overwhelm Rodriguez on the feet. He acknowledges Rodriguez could win by getting takedowns in two rounds but thinks Cansen will avoid that.
Cody picks Josefine Knutsson, citing her striking volume, clinch work, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes that Rodríguez has cardio issues and a tendency to gas after the first round. Cody believes Knutsson's Muay Thai and physicality will win the decision, though he is wary of the judges.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Knutsson because Rodríguez is a dumbass who makes the wrong decisions. He notes that Rodríguez has the physical tools to win but her tendency to foul and make poor choices makes her unreliable. Knutsson is a solid, average fighter who will stick to her game plan.
Daniel Vreeland picks Piera Rodríguez as a dog, contingent on her mixing in takedowns. He notes Knutsson has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in her last fight. However, he is hesitant because Rodríguez has low fight IQ, as evidenced by her headbutt in a previous fight. He believes if Rodríguez fights optimally, she wins, but he's not fully confident she will execute the game plan.
Knutsson's hard-nosed striking style, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots while mixing in clinch work, will be too much for Piera Rodriguez. She is expected to grind out a decision victory, continuing her winning streak.
Paul picks Josefine Knutsson but is not confident, citing her takedown defense issues. He notes that Rodríguez has a path via wrestling, but Knutsson's striking should win if she can stay upright. Paul is not planning to bet heavily on this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson despite concerns about a potential 'fraud check' due to her past takedown vulnerabilities. He notes her crisp boxing and good standup, and believes she has been working on her grappling, making her less one-dimensional. He worries that Piera Rodríguez could take her down and grind out a win, but ultimately trusts Knutsson's undefeated record and technical striking.
Zane picks Knutsson but is hesitant, noting that Rodríguez is a natural fighter with better physical gifts but is also an idiot who makes terrible decisions, like trying to grapple with Gillian Robertson and headbutting her way to a loss. Knutsson is a steady technician who knows what she wants to do, similar to Lina Länsberg. Zane thinks Knutsson's consistency and clinch work should win, but Rodríguez could land big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 51 of 102 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 46 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 24 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 10 of 33 | 30% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 1 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:31 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane Carnelossi | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 73 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 60 | 11 of 13 | 7 of 8 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 16 of 49 | 32% | 13 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 43 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane Carnelossi | 19 of 50 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 10 of 33 | 30% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 9 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane Carnelossi | 21 of 31 | 67% | 16 of 24 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)
Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.
The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 46 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 14 | 92% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 26 of 39 | 66% | 20 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 33 | 36% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 14 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.
Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.
Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.
Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.
Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.
Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 83 of 160 | 51% | 89 of 166 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 69 of 155 | 44% | 78 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 20 of 54 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 22 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 34 of 51 | 66% | 37 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 32 of 58 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Sam Hughes | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 83 of 160 | 51% | 32 of 101 | 42 of 48 | 9 of 11 | 47 of 122 | 33 of 35 | 3 of 3 |
| Sam Hughes | 69 of 155 | 44% | 55 of 135 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 55 of 140 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 19 of 53 | 35% | 7 of 35 | 9 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Sam Hughes | 21 of 56 | 37% | 18 of 50 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 34 of 51 | 66% | 13 of 29 | 17 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 |
| Sam Hughes | 17 of 43 | 39% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 39 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 30 of 56 | 53% | 12 of 37 | 16 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 40 | 16 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Hughes | 31 of 56 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 49 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.
Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.
Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.
Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 50 of 88 | 56% | 77 of 124 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:13 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 31 of 77 | 40% | 54 of 106 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 29 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 32 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:28 |
| Kay Hansen | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piera Rodríguez | 50 of 88 | 56% | 26 of 60 | 18 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 34 of 70 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 6 |
| Kay Hansen | 31 of 77 | 40% | 22 of 61 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 66 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Piera Rodríguez | 13 of 35 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kay Hansen | 17 of 35 | 48% | 14 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Piera Rodríguez | 23 of 31 | 74% | 15 of 22 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
| Kay Hansen | 7 of 21 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Piera Rodríguez | 14 of 22 | 63% | 4 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Kay Hansen | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Piera Rodríguez as the underdog. He highlights her nasty striking, calculated brawling, and good takedown defense. He notes that she does damage in defensive scrambles and has solid grappling defense if taken down. He believes there's something special in her style.
Big Brady slightly edges Rodríguez to win a volume-based decision on the feet, stuffing takedowns and working back up if taken down. He notes Rodríguez has power and improved takedown defense, while Hansen may struggle to get the fight to the mat. However, he has no confidence in this pick and will not bet it.
Cody takes Hansen as a slight underdog, noting she has scored takedowns in all her UFC fights. He thinks Rodríguez is hittable and not great at getting back up. Cody acknowledges Hansen's youth and inconsistency but believes her grappling can secure rounds. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation.
Levi notes Kay Hansen has fought better competition and has a path to victory on the ground, but questions her mental commitment due to outside income. He favors Piera Rodríguez's crisp hands and knockout power for the weight class, and thinks the fight location (striking range) favors Rodríguez. He admits he is not confident and has no bet on it.
I lean Kay Hansen because she is showing improvements in her striking and has clearly better BJJ. She can mix in grappling and clinch work to get the fight to the ground and wear on Piera from top position. I think she can hold her own in striking but needs to mix in grappling to avoid getting touched up. I see her winning via decision or submission.
Paul leans towards Rodríguez but calls it a pass. He notes Rodríguez's physicality and striking, but saw her gas in her Contender Series fight. He thinks Hansen's grappling could be a factor but that Rodríguez's pressure might be too much. He picks Rodríguez for the show but with low confidence.
The MMA Guru picks Kay Hansen as an underdog, citing her experience and activity. He notes that Hansen picks up as fights go on, winning the second and third rounds. He expects a close split decision, possibly 29-28, and mentions that Hansen's name recognition might sway judges. He also points out that Rodríguez's output was low on the Contender Series.
Expert Picks (5)
Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.
Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.
Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.
Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.
The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.
Comments (1)
Car follows her opponent arund the ring - Aggresive. Take down defense at this stage is 14%. Shaped like sean sherk -dean thomas.
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