UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 35
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Abusupiyan Magomedov
3.07 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.43 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.61 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Warlley Alves
3.04 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.95 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Submission R2 1:46 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 18 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 1 6 of 10 60% 13 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 16 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 5 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 1 5 of 7 71% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.

"I got to pick him. And I'm like super confident here. I think these odds are a discount because Joe Piper is everything Aboose thinks he is, but a little better."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.

Joe Pyfer by first round KO.
"Give me Joe Pyer. Give me Joe Piper by first round KO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.

"I just decided I'm going to pick Obus Magomedov out of a rapidly grown supply of spite for Joe Piper."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.

"I believe that Magomedov is being overlooked in this matchup. On paper, I think he's a better all-around fighter... Look for Magomedov to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.

second-round KO
"I'm going to go with Joe Pyfer to get this one by second round KO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.

"I came in ready to pick Piper just for that first round dynamism. So I'm going to stick with it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 73 of 168 43% 74 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 78 of 134 58% 83 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 18 of 31 58% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
2 Michel Pereira 0 25 of 58 43% 26 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Michel Pereira 0 41 of 90 45% 41 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 36 of 57 63% 36 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 73 of 168 43% 27 of 90 27 of 50 19 of 28 72 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 78 of 134 58% 53 of 99 19 of 29 6 of 6 72 of 128 3 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 7 of 20 35% 0 of 4 4 of 9 3 of 7 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 18 of 31 58% 10 of 23 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 26 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Michel Pereira 25 of 58 43% 7 of 28 8 of 17 10 of 13 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 24 of 46 52% 14 of 30 8 of 14 2 of 2 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michel Pereira 41 of 90 45% 20 of 58 15 of 24 6 of 8 40 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 36 of 57 63% 29 of 46 6 of 10 1 of 1 35 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.

Odds tightening; may hold off if it goes to even money
"Michelle should beat the [__] out of this guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.

second round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira to get back on track. I'll take Pereira to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by knockout. I'll say second round knockout for Michelle Pereira."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.

"Michelle Padera is an actually very good fighter who has learned a lot and evolved a lot over time, an incredible athlete."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think his explosivity, athleticism, and power will shut down the grappling game of Momedov... I think Pereira will force him to break eventually getting that second or third round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.

"I'm going with Abbas Magamemedov as an underdog. I think Abbas Magdov got a ton of [__] for not looking good against Strickland and also gassing out in that fight. But since then he has shown improvements."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.

"I trust put it at this point to come out the other side of a rough start or whatever, and there's not that much depth to Maga Madoff's game at all."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:14 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 26 of 59 44% 45 of 81 4 of 8 50% 1 0 3:36
Brunno Ferreira 0 29 of 71 40% 36 of 83 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 23 34% 21 of 37 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:14
Brunno Ferreira 0 20 of 42 47% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 4 of 7 57% 10 of 15 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:22
Brunno Ferreira 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 26 of 59 44% 10 of 40 8 of 11 8 of 8 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 29 of 71 40% 20 of 59 9 of 12 0 of 0 26 of 65 1 of 2 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 14 of 29 48% 4 of 17 5 of 7 5 of 5 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 12 16% 0 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 20 of 42 47% 16 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 37 0 of 1 2 of 4
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 7 of 17 41% 4 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.

Watching line movement tracker for better value on Ferreira as the dog.
"Brunno f is going to be the pick low confidence I'm going to be watching the line movement tracker keeping an eye on it see if I can get even better value."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I'll say abua met off to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.

"I'm going to take a small play on him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.

"I was thinking he's like, uh, he's like a portion of Gilbert Burns is striking without any of the other stuff to back it up. Yeah. Short little stocky power puncher who like, yeah, he just doesn't have anything else …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.

first-round knockout
"I'm gonna go with Bruno to come out here and upset him via starch again"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.

"Abus Mega Med off uh definitely my Play Here wouldn't shock me if he subbed him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.

"I'm taking F especially if he wants to stri with him then I I will take the hul here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.

Magomedov wins by knockout
"look for magov to win this fight by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.

"I think I'm going to go with a boost"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.

"I'm going to go with Brunno Ferreira because in my mind I'm thinking if it all goes good for either of them each of them are going to have a chance to win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.

"fajeta is he's got great power but the rest of his game just doesn't exist"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.

"I think it could be wider than that. I know Avus is a bit of a glass cannon and you know, he's been shown up by fighters like Kyle Baha'o and Sean Strickland and even Lewis Taylor at one point, …"
WIN vs Warlley Alves
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 22 of 44 50% 98 of 168 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:56
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 9 of 20 45% 30 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:30
Warlley Alves 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 15 53% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:15
Warlley Alves 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 5 of 9 55% 20 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:11
Warlley Alves 0 5 of 7 71% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 22 of 44 50% 15 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 27 2 of 2 11 of 15
Warlley Alves 16 of 38 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 5 of 8 16 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3
Warlley Alves 8 of 24 33% 4 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 10
Warlley Alves 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 1 51 of 103 49% 70 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:17
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 38 of 107 35% 39 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Caio Borralho 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Caio Borralho 1 19 of 36 52% 38 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 51 of 103 49% 33 of 73 11 of 15 7 of 15 50 of 102 0 of 0 1 of 1
Abusupiyan Magomedov 38 of 107 35% 19 of 74 14 of 24 5 of 9 38 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 11 of 25 44% 5 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 33 21% 5 of 24 1 of 4 1 of 5 7 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 21 of 42 50% 13 of 29 6 of 8 2 of 5 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 20 of 49 40% 8 of 33 9 of 13 3 of 3 20 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 19 of 36 52% 15 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 1 18 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 25 44% 6 of 17 4 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.

no bet, Borralho could be a parlay buster
"I am going to pick Kyo because he's at home he I think he can I can 100% count on him to try to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.

"give me Kyle B to win this fight I think he mixes in the takedowns where's on Abu medov and submits him in the third round there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.

"I'm gonna lean with Borralho but I don't have any interest in laying this price... I'm going to pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.

James mentions that Borralho has a lot of decisions and doesn't push the pace, and he feels the over on total rounds should be favored. He also includes Magomedov in a degenerate parlay.
"I just think the line's wide to be honest... I like magam medov a lot in this spot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.

"I'm going to go with baralo here over Abus... abis magedov dangerous but quitter"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
TKO (punches) R2 4:20 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 1 81 of 188 43% 81 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 47 of 101 46% 47 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 11 of 48 22% 11 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
2 Sean Strickland 1 70 of 140 50% 70 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 81 of 188 43% 80 of 186 1 of 2 0 of 0 67 of 168 0 of 0 14 of 20
Abusupiyan Magomedov 47 of 101 46% 21 of 68 16 of 23 10 of 10 47 of 101 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 11 of 48 22% 10 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 32 of 60 53% 10 of 34 13 of 17 9 of 9 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 70 of 140 50% 70 of 140 0 of 0 0 of 0 56 of 120 0 of 0 14 of 20
Abusupiyan Magomedov 15 of 41 36% 11 of 34 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-145), Magomedov (+125)

Round 1
In the next 25 minutes or less, one of two outcomes could play out, barring something crazy. Either a top contender in Strickland (26-5, 13-5 UFC) holds the line against a surging up-and-comer, or the hard-charging Magomedov (25-4-1, 1-0 UFC) stamps his ticket towards the top echelon of the 185- pound division in a hurry. Referee Mark Smith will be on the final call of the night, and the potentially intriguing striking affair will begin with a glove touch. Magomedov pushes off early with two front kicks, and Strickland brushes his side and absorbs a low kick. Magomedov crashes forward with looping strikes, and as Strickland circles away and lines up a jab, Magomedov pushes off and a finger slides into his eye. Smith calls time, and after 30 seconds, he calls in the doctor. Strickland mentioned that he cannot see, and he takes the cloth from the physician and wipes out his eye. Strickland paces back and forth, trying to clear his vision, and he is struggling to see. After two minutes of attempted recover, Strickland mentions he has double vision. Strickland states the he is good to go at just under three minutes of time off, and the two clap hands on the reset. Magomedov is quick to loop at front kick at him, and several front kicks follow that in rapid succession. Magomedov digs a kick deep on the upper calf, and he takes a jab and aims a second leg kick to the same spot. Magomedov gives chase, throwing wide strikes, and Strickland’s partial Philly Shell guard is allowing him to block and parry the worst of the strikes. Magomedov slings a left hand that gets around the guard, and Strickland has to shake it out. Strickland prods out with a few jabs, and Magomedov’s volume and power is far higher. Strickland dodges and weaves the power punches, and he circles into a front kick to his midsection. Strickland peppers Magomedov with jabs, reddening the nose up, but Magomedov chambers and fires several harmful leg kicks. Magomedov connects with a straight left up top and one to the body, and he gets backed up with a stream of jabs. Strickland pressures his foe and leans when a right hand brushes past his hair, and he splits the guard with an increasingly steady diet of jabs. Strickland takes a head kick right on the jaw, and Magomedov shoots in for a double and manages to throw the defensively sound Strickland to his seat. As Magomedov attempts to take his back, Strickland scoots out and works back to his feet. Strickland follows one jab with a solid right hand, but he is generally relying on his jab. Strickland takes a clean left hand over the top, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov

Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start off the second frame, and Strickland lifts his leg up early to take the sting out of a leg kick. Magomedov swings for the fences with two hooks, and Strickland snipes Magomedov with a one-two. Strickland walks down Magomedov, who appears surprised by the blows, and he stumbles when he meets the cage behind him. Strickland drills Magomedov with another one-two, and he stalks after the Russian putting his punches together. Magomedov’s offense is limited to big counter punches, and Strickland senses his opening and lays into “Abus.” Strickland is in his groove, snapping out sharp jabs and follow-up punches, and Magomedov is reeling. Magomedov shells up, and Strickland accurately gets strikes around it and through it. Magomedov is fatiguing fast, his strikes telegraphed, while Strickland is not missing a beat as he lands with impunity. Strickland rattles Magomedov with a right hand, and he rolls through a counter that does not have nearly as much on it. Magomedov winces and gets backed up to the cage, and Strickland unleashes a vicious combination of punches to mess Magomedov up. Magomedov’s mouth wide open, he backs off while Strickland is comfortable to beat on him. Magomedov digs a pair of huge left hands to the body, but for every one he lands, Strickland gets off five or more.
Magomedov takes a long look at the clock, and he frowns as Strickland jabs his face off. Magomedov crumbles from the methodical bludgeoning, his knees giving way as he slumps his back to the cage. Strickland shoves him over to his side, and he force-feeds his fist into Magomedov’s face again and again without any signs of slowing. Magomedov is barely hanging on at this point, just taking damage, and Smith watches on cautiously until he decides that enough is enough and “Abus” is done.
After likely dropping the first round, Strickland came on strong, reminding the division that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and notching another win at the UFC Apex. A gracious Strickland thanks the fans and says he would not do what he does – or get paid – were it not for the fans. He then declares his love for the country, after calling for either a title shot or “meat” to fight. Whether Strickland ends up getting a crack at the belt after beating an unranked opponent in Magomedov, or he posts up at the Apex for another few headliners, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Result
Sean Strickland def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 4:20 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo picks Abus Magomedov despite Strickland being the favorite. He notes Strickland's high volume and takedown defense but believes Abus's power and versatility will be key. He expects Abus to win early rounds but acknowledges Strickland's pressure could wear him down. He mentions a potential plus 5.5 point buy on the scorecard for Abus.

plus 5.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"Abus is going to be the pick here it's a low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by decision. He notes Strickland has faced much better competition and has five-round experience, while Magomedov has only one UFC fight. He thinks Strickland is the better striker, especially as the fight goes on, and Magomedov's only path is a first-round knockout. He expects Strickland to survive the early rounds and take over later.

"I like uh Sean Strickland by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody is shocked the line moved from -175 to -145, as Strickland is coming off a dominant five-round performance on short notice. He emphasizes Strickland's proven cardio, durability, and volume against elite competition, while Magomedov has only one UFC win over Dustin Stoltzfus and was knocked out by Lewis Taylor in PFL. Cody sees Magomedov's level of competition as far below Strickland's and believes the line is a trap but is willing to bet Strickland anyway.

Strickland over 80.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm shocked man shot shock shocked so yeah I'm gonna bed and of course it's the main event so it gives me the Hedge out option if I needed to play it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel leans Strickland due to his proven volume and output over five rounds, citing his 200+ significant strikes against Imavov and 150+ against Cannonier. He acknowledges Magomedov's power and finishing ability, especially early, but sees Strickland's pace and durability as key. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation because Magomedov's decision record (5-1) and power make the outcome uncertain. He notes Strickland's output increases in later rounds, which favors him if the fight goes the distance.

dog or pass situation; Strickland minus 170, Magomedov plus 145
"I'm gonna lean towards Strickland but I think these odds reflect a lean towards Strickland a nice little 170 so I don't know man I honestly think this might be a dog or pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James discusses the matchup at length but does not make a definitive pick. He notes that Abusupiyan has stylistic advantages in wrestling that Strickland hasn't faced recently, and that Strickland's pressure and experience in five-round fights are factors. He says he needs to do more tape before coming to a prediction.

"I haven't have I don't have a massive decision yet I'm going to um tape it more cuz I have done a little bit of tape I'm going to tape it more and come up my prediction."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, surprised by the line movement. He highlights Strickland's ability to go five rounds at 185, his volume (182 significant strikes in his last fight), and his ranking as #4 in the division. He notes Magomedov is not ranked in the top 15 and has fought mostly low-level competition. Paul believes Strickland's experience and cardio are decisive.

"I think I was surprised by the line on minus 175 the fact that it moved down to minus 145 I'm not quite understanding it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The Guru picks Sean Strickland, reasoning that Abus Magomedov's only notable win is over Dustin Stoltzfus, which is not enough evidence. He notes Strickland's experience and pressure, and believes if Magomedov doesn't finish in round one, his finishing rate plummets. He predicts Strickland will wear him down and get a late-round TKO or decision, similar to his win over Nassourdine Imavov.

late round TKO or decision
"you have to pick Strickland you pick an Abus magnumedov if you are guessing what he will become"
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
Warlley Alves - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 22 of 44 50% 98 of 168 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:56
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 9 of 20 45% 30 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:30
Warlley Alves 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 15 53% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:15
Warlley Alves 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 5 of 9 55% 20 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:11
Warlley Alves 0 5 of 7 71% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 22 of 44 50% 15 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 27 2 of 2 11 of 15
Warlley Alves 16 of 38 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 5 of 8 16 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3
Warlley Alves 8 of 24 33% 4 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 10
Warlley Alves 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:07 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 66 of 144 45% 75 of 153 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Warlley Alves 0 119 of 248 47% 167 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 35 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Warlley Alves 0 35 of 74 47% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 37 48% 20 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Warlley Alves 0 31 of 73 42% 52 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 30 of 72 41% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Warlley Alves 0 53 of 101 52% 64 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 66 of 144 45% 45 of 117 7 of 12 14 of 15 62 of 138 4 of 6 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 119 of 248 47% 75 of 195 35 of 41 9 of 12 86 of 212 32 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 35 51% 7 of 22 4 of 5 7 of 8 16 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 35 of 74 47% 19 of 51 13 of 17 3 of 6 20 of 58 15 of 16 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 37 48% 11 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 6 17 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 31 of 73 42% 22 of 62 5 of 7 4 of 4 25 of 67 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Nicolas Dalby 30 of 72 41% 27 of 66 2 of 5 1 of 1 29 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 53 of 101 52% 34 of 82 17 of 17 2 of 2 41 of 87 12 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.

"I'm gonna pick uh Worley Alves I think he's uh the more likely fighter to finish this fight I think is the more likely fighter to Grapple and if he does grapple pretty easy path to Victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.

bet under 2.5 rounds at -120; mentions Alves' guillotine choke
"I took the under two and a half rounds uh minus 120. um I'm surprised that Line's still actually there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.

"I'm going to go with Dolby just for being a workhorse."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.

mentions under 2.5 rounds; says Alves is a front-runner
"Alvis is the rifle pick 16 months off gaster notorious apple pie [ __ ] don't put a bunch of money on them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.

"I'm gonna go dalby but it's worrying this is one of them fights this is truly like a a really close fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.

"I'm going to pick Warlley Alves. I think he's gonna do too much damage early until we won't be able to come back hard enough to win."
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
KO (punches) R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 15 of 17 88% 15 of 17 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 1 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 11 of 12 91% 11 of 12 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 35 28% 18 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:29
2 Jeremiah Wells 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 15 of 17 88% 1 of 2 7 of 7 7 of 8 10 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 21 of 52 40% 17 of 48 4 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 36 0 of 0 9 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 11 of 12 91% 1 of 1 6 of 6 4 of 5 6 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 10 of 35 28% 7 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 10
2 Jeremiah Wells 4 of 5 80% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Jeremiah Wells

Round 1
Many forget that Alves (14-4, 8-4 UFC) won the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” back in 2014 at middleweight, at the same time that Antonio Carlos Jr. won it at heavyweight. In this welterweight battle, the TUF victor will welcome Wells (8-2-1, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC on short notice, as Ramazan Emeev was forced out for undisclosed reasons. Drawing the assignment is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes an attempted glove touch from Alves as these two prepare to get after it. Wells ignores him as he runs behind the back of Tognoni, and he charges ahead and bowls Alves over with a surge of strikes and forward movement. The Brazilian is able to scoot his way back to the corner of the fence, and looks to kick off the fence while getting away with a cheeky fence grab with his toes. Wells drags him back down and starts blasting Alves in the face with huge right hands, and Alves is stuck in this position on his side. Wells unloads several more blistering right hands as he climbs to half guard, and he turns the punches to elbows when Alves grabs his wrist. Wells stands up to find a better position, and Alves pops right to his feet. Wells rushes him to ring Alves’ bell with an elbow, and he presses hard into the clinch before lifting Alves in the air. The Brazilian keeps his balance as he lands on one foot, so Wells knees him square in the midsection. The newcomer keeps his full body weight pushes on the UFC vet, but Alves simply shoves him away to gain some distance. Wells counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and he swings a huge right hand at Alves. Another home run shot comes from Wells, and Alves sees these telegraphed strikes coming and can parry them. Wells eats a counter left hand flush, and Wells whiffs on looping strikes. Wells rushes in with a flying knee before considering a takedown, and his fingers ensnare themselves into the fencing to draw a warning from Tognoni. Wells fails on a trip, and he chains this into a double leg takedown. Alves defends with a guillotine choke, and he jumps guard to set it up. Alves uses the choke to push Wells to his back, and Wells keeps a single butterfly hook in to defend himself from punishment. Wells uses upkicks to push Alves back, and the round ends with an axe kick from Alves that may have glanced off Wells’ chin – and therefore would be quite illegal. Nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 2
Alves is the man to leap out of his corner this round, jumping forward with a flying knee. Wells tries to swing bombs at him, and a counter right hand knocks Alves off-balance. The Brazilian stumbles and tries to survive, and Wells follows him to the ground to continue unloading on him.
Alves gets to his knees, but Wells bowls him over and smashes him in the face with right hand after unanswered right hand. It only takes a few for Alves to go completely out, and Tognoni cannot stop the fight fast enough.
What a way to announce yourself to the UFC, knocking out a tough vet after a furious first round. Welcome to the UFC, Jeremiah Wells.

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Warlley Alves R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Angelo picks Warlley Alves, citing his full training camp, consistency, and veteran experience. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells is live with good grappling and wild striking but is not confident due to Wells' two-year layoff and short notice UFC debut. Angelo thinks Alves is the safer pick.

"i think warley is the pick full training camp has been consistent an actual veteran with some solid fights i think jeremiah's live may come out there and shock a lot of people but i just don't um you know …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Warlley Alves to win by first round KO, despite acknowledging his inconsistency and poor cardio. He notes Alves's dangerous finishing ability and that Wells is making his UFC debut on short notice after a long layoff. He thinks Alves will finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Wells could be a live bet. He would not parlay Alves.

by KO, first round, would not parlay, live bet on Wells if past first round
"the picks and me alvas i'm taking the win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Alves but with low confidence due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has all the tools but often gasses after one round. However, Wells also has cardio issues and is on short notice. Cody thinks Alves has advantages everywhere if he shows up, but he won't bet him because of the trap potential. He suggests the under 1.5 rounds as a possible play.

"i gotta go with worley alba's but i learned my lesson on betting worley he's gonna either show up and i'm you'll say i wish i had more money on him or he's not going to show up"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Jacob picks Jeremiah Wells, noting his fast hands, real jiu-jitsu under Henzo Gracie, and potential to be a one-punch knockout artist. He acknowledges the risk of the layoff and short notice but believes Wells is live and can win. Jacob wanted to make Wells his lock of the week but wasn't confident enough.

"first of all i would i would play the the more and more on this um and i really wanted to make jeremiah my lock of the week honestly we saw what happened uh what was it last week with …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Alves is the much better striker with legitimate jiu-jitsu. Wells is on short notice and has inactivity issues. Alves will take whatever Wells throws and make him pay. Wells has a puncher's chance but can't maintain pressure for 15 minutes. Alves should win by decision, though his cardio could be a factor if things don't go his way.

Alves by decision
"I think that elvis has the chops to survive whatever was just throwing at him and then just give it right back to him... I think alves probably wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Alves but is not confident. He notes Alves' cardio issues but thinks Wells also fades. He believes Alves has better skills and should win if he doesn't gas. He is not betting the fight but would lean under 1.5 rounds if forced.

"i like worley but 2 30 for a guy that i have no faith can fight 15 minutes is a really tough ask"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

The MMA Guru picks Warlley Alves by first-round KO, citing Wells as a short-notice replacement without quick finishes or devastating power. He notes Alves' rejuvenated career and believes Wells' age (34) and lack of first-round KOs work against him. He expects Alves to capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.

first round KO
"i'll go have wale alves here getting a first round ko over jeremiah wells"
WIN vs Mounir Lazzez
TKO (body kicks and punches) R1 2:35 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

Lazzez by KO in round 2; under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm going to take liz to win i think the first couple of minutes are going to be extremely extremely sketchy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i love munir to win in this fight i it's hard for me to see truly how he gets finished"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with muni lazers by third round tko because wale alves can't fight for longer than a round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (triangle choke) R2 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 3 of 11 27% 8 of 18 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:17
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 30 53% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 10 2 of 2 100% 2 0 3:34
Warlley Alves 0 6 of 11 54% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
2 Randy Brown 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 3 of 4 2 of 3 9 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 2 of 5
2 Randy Brown 1 of 8 12% 0 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 10 of 19 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
KO (punch) R3 4:13 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 72 of 157 45% 72 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 20 of 62 32% 20 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Warlley Alves 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Warlley Alves 1 38 of 69 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 72 of 157 45% 36 of 107 10 of 14 26 of 36 70 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 20 of 62 32% 12 of 52 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 10 of 31 32% 2 of 14 1 of 3 7 of 14 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Warlley Alves 24 of 57 42% 10 of 42 2 of 3 12 of 12 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 5 of 20 25% 2 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Warlley Alves 38 of 69 55% 24 of 51 7 of 8 7 of 10 36 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 6 of 21 28% 4 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs James Krause
KO (knee and punches) R2 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
James Krause 0 59 of 106 55% 79 of 126 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Warlley Alves 0 28 of 64 43% 39 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 James Krause 0 31 of 65 47% 38 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 James Krause 0 28 of 41 68% 41 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 24 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
James Krause 59 of 106 55% 43 of 83 14 of 19 2 of 4 43 of 85 16 of 21 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 28 of 64 43% 20 of 47 6 of 13 2 of 4 18 of 51 10 of 11 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 James Krause 31 of 65 47% 20 of 48 10 of 15 1 of 2 27 of 58 4 of 7 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 16 of 40 40% 8 of 25 6 of 11 2 of 4 11 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 2
2 James Krause 28 of 41 68% 23 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 27 12 of 14 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 24 50% 12 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by knockout or even by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"