vs
-155 +145
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
4.34 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.2 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Edson Barboza
4.14 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.68 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Lerone Murphy
Moneyline
BetWay -155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +310
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetRivers +190
Edson Barboza
Moneyline
Caesars +145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +300
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel +500
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Movsar Evloev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Movsar Evloev 0 86 of 189 45% 124 of 234 9 of 10 90% 0 0 3:54
Lerone Murphy 0 89 of 239 37% 89 of 239 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Movsar Evloev 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Movsar Evloev 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Movsar Evloev 0 25 of 50 50% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Lerone Murphy 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Movsar Evloev 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 45 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:19
Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Movsar Evloev 0 12 of 36 33% 40 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:12
Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Movsar Evloev 86 of 189 45% 47 of 134 33 of 44 6 of 11 80 of 178 1 of 2 5 of 9
Lerone Murphy 89 of 239 37% 45 of 175 24 of 38 20 of 26 89 of 238 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Movsar Evloev 11 of 31 35% 3 of 21 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 14 of 49 28% 6 of 35 4 of 8 4 of 6 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Movsar Evloev 17 of 37 45% 9 of 24 7 of 11 1 of 2 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 24 of 57 42% 12 of 41 7 of 10 5 of 6 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Movsar Evloev 25 of 50 50% 12 of 34 11 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 23 of 48 47% 12 of 35 8 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Movsar Evloev 21 of 35 60% 16 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 1 15 of 25 1 of 2 5 of 8
Lerone Murphy 16 of 39 41% 6 of 24 5 of 8 5 of 7 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Movsar Evloev 12 of 36 33% 7 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 12 of 46 26% 9 of 40 0 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.

bet small at +220; English judges may help
"I am picking Lar Murphy. I bet on him at plus 220. Nothing huge, a small little bet because I am a coward. But I'm picking Lor Murphy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.

Movsar Evloev by decision
"Give me Evloev to win this fight. Give me Evloev to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.

"I actually think he just wins this fight. But it does come down to a numbers game sometimes. And by the value side, he is definitely the value side."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I think you do have to pick Yvlowev. You're not wrong. I think that is the right pick, but I do really wonder, like, what does this fight look like in rounds four and five..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.

"I think if Loy is going to win a unanimous decision here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.

"I kind of do lean Evloev just as a pure pick."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.

Fight likely goes to decision; not interested in fight spreads.
"Evloev should win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.

Evloev by decision, over 4.5 rounds
"I think Mobsa Evov wins here. I'm really more looking for the Mobs decision over four and a half cuz I think Leon is super tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.

"I like Evloev here. I don't mind passing on him if I don't get the number that I want, but I still think he wins this pretty decisively. And I think he does it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.

"I have no doubt in my mind that he's going to be able to get takedowns over Luron Murphy over and over and over."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.

fourth or fifth round finish
"Eve gets this one done. Fourth or fifth round finish. I think he'll push for a finish and get it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I got to pick the rest. And can also very, very clearly and notably win out really difficult scramble battles."
WIN vs Aaron Pico
KO R1 3:21 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.

"I do think Pico's wrestling is just going to be too much here. Pico also has very good striking."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.

"I'm actually going to take Murphy here. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is battle tested against UFC featherweights... Pico is going to get his ass down quick, probably, but it is yet to be an actual fight losing weakness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.

"I believe Pico will remind people that he is still a very highlevel prospect and more than deserving to be in the top 10 of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.

Underdog money on Murphy is crazy; could see a finish for Murphy (TKO or decision)
"I'm taking Lone Murphy. I think Lone Murphy beats Aaron Pico. Stylewise, I completely understand why Aaron Pico is problematic to Luron Murphy. He is a tricky style for Lurone Murphy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is just a physical presence like Pico has literally never faced... I kind of think Murphy will finish him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 52 of 100 52% 78 of 133 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:17
Dan Ige 1 46 of 106 43% 52 of 116 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Dan Ige 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
2 Lerone Murphy 0 19 of 42 45% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Dan Ige 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:43
3 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 26 61% 24 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Dan Ige 0 3 of 17 17% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 52 of 100 52% 36 of 77 12 of 17 4 of 6 37 of 80 12 of 16 3 of 4
Dan Ige 46 of 106 43% 35 of 92 5 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 79 6 of 16 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 17 of 32 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dan Ige 32 of 60 53% 27 of 53 2 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 39 5 of 11 8 of 10
2 Lerone Murphy 19 of 42 45% 12 of 31 6 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 1
Dan Ige 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dan Ige 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Josh Culibao
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 59 of 109 54% 87 of 144 3 of 5 60% 2 0 7:38
Josh Culibao 0 23 of 59 38% 40 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:13
Josh Culibao 0 11 of 34 32% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Josh Culibao 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:48
3 Lerone Murphy 1 29 of 49 59% 45 of 69 2 of 3 66% 2 0 3:46
Josh Culibao 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 59 of 109 54% 37 of 81 15 of 18 7 of 10 24 of 61 12 of 14 23 of 34
Josh Culibao 23 of 59 38% 16 of 48 5 of 6 2 of 5 19 of 53 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 18 of 37 48% 8 of 25 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Culibao 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 5 10 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 3 2 of 2
Josh Culibao 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 29 of 49 59% 23 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 10 6 of 7 21 of 32
Josh Culibao 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.

half unit bet at -145
"I've got to go with larone here though his striking is insanely fluid he's got a ton of power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.

by decision
"give me Murphy give me Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.

"minus 130 seems very very fair for Laurel Murphy so he's a guy that I've had circled"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.

Daniel says 'I'm gonna go later on by split decision' and mentions the line: Murphy -130, Culibao +110. He does not bet.
"I'm gonna go later on by split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.

"I think whoever is an underdog in that spot is probably the side so I'd say cool about the side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.

likely stay off it for betting
"I'm gonna lean on the Murphy side here I believe his physical advantages his explosivity his speed his power will allow him to land those big shots on [ __ ] bow and grind this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.

"I will take a little Murphy at home to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.

"I've got to go with larone Murphy"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 93 of 161 57% 115 of 183 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Gabriel Santos 0 69 of 122 56% 87 of 141 5 of 11 45% 0 0 4:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Gabriel Santos 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 44 56% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
Gabriel Santos 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
3 Lerone Murphy 0 35 of 59 59% 42 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gabriel Santos 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 93 of 161 57% 59 of 117 27 of 37 7 of 7 77 of 144 12 of 12 4 of 5
Gabriel Santos 69 of 122 56% 32 of 73 24 of 34 13 of 15 55 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 33 of 58 56% 18 of 39 12 of 16 3 of 3 29 of 54 2 of 2 2 of 2
Gabriel Santos 36 of 54 66% 16 of 31 13 of 16 7 of 7 29 of 45 7 of 8 0 of 1
2 Lerone Murphy 25 of 44 56% 13 of 30 10 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 3
Gabriel Santos 13 of 32 40% 8 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1
3 Lerone Murphy 35 of 59 59% 28 of 48 5 of 9 2 of 2 30 of 54 5 of 5 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 20 of 36 55% 8 of 20 8 of 10 4 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.

"I do think larone Murphy wins this fight these odds are probably where they should be minus 275 was a little steep."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.

"I'm leaning towards Murphy to get that knockout win here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.

"I like Laurel Murphy because all those facts are true... I think that Murphy just moves laterally stays out of the way sticks and moves lands the more precise shots and uh eventually wins the fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.

"I'm gonna take Murphy, but I like the fight a lot."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.

"my confidence level right now I think those odds are correct it's probably like a five or or six for larone."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think it's going to be that speed and an explosiveness of LaRon Murphy that'll allow him to take advantage of the Striking defense deficiencies in Gabriel Santos's game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.

"for the purpose of the show I'll pick Laurel Murphy but uh that could change based on me looking up some tape"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.

Murphy wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.

"I'll take Murphy as well."
KO (knee) R2 0:14 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 4 of 6 66% 12 of 16 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 14 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Lerone Murphy 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"
Edson Barboza - Fight History
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.

"I'm gonna pick Jaylen Turner here because at this point in their careers, I think he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.

Turner by first round knockout
"I'm going to take Jaylen Turner to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.

"The reason I end up locking in Turner is more so you're you're right. His last fight against Jakar, he goes through the motions."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.

Turner by KO
"I think I have to take Turner honestly, which I can't pick Jaylen Turner after that last performance and not, especially not with all the additional context."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.

"I'm not really sure. Next week, I'll have a pick for y'all on this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.

Jalin Turner inside the distance
"Jaylen Turner inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to be more than dialed in to go out there and take advantage of the deteriorating durability of Edson Barbosa. Look for Turner to get this fight done within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.

"I don't think Jaylen Turner makes it to the third round, but he's big, he's strong, he's got more than enough power."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Jaylen Turner getting this one done by TKO finish brutally in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.

"I have to pick him because of that, but man, if this is a Anthony Smith situation, yeah, like it's miss fight against, uh, Dom Reyes, then like he won of Anthony Smith's like last four fights."
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 71 of 120 59% 73 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:50
Drakkar Klose 0 53 of 102 51% 147 of 209 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 24 of 36 66% 26 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Drakkar Klose 0 15 of 29 51% 68 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Edson Barboza 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Drakkar Klose 0 25 of 44 56% 50 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 46 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Drakkar Klose 0 13 of 29 44% 29 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 71 of 120 59% 26 of 64 32 of 38 13 of 18 57 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 53 of 102 51% 35 of 78 6 of 9 12 of 15 43 of 89 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 24 of 36 66% 4 of 11 13 of 17 7 of 8 18 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 1 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 18 of 38 47% 7 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 4 14 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 25 of 44 56% 19 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 46 63% 15 of 31 9 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 13 of 29 44% 8 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"I'm going to lean Eden Barbosa here. I've seen that dude step up time and time and time again against some of the best that have ever done it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.

Barboza by KO, round 2
"I think Barbosa is the better striker and I think he knocks out Jakar Close. I think he's going to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.

"I believe Close is one of the more underrated lightweights on the roster and I think he'll showcase it once again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.

Decision win 29-28; Klose wins by decision
"I'm going to go with Dakar Close getting this one done. Decision win 2928."
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 178 of 351 50% 206 of 397 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:56
Sodiq Yusuff 1 164 of 324 50% 178 of 347 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 42 of 80 52% 55 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:15
Sodiq Yusuff 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 42 of 79 53% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Sodiq Yusuff 0 31 of 65 47% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 1 32 of 68 47% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
4 Edson Barboza 0 35 of 79 44% 39 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Sodiq Yusuff 0 47 of 90 52% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
5 Edson Barboza 0 30 of 55 54% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 0 41 of 76 53% 41 of 77 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 178 of 351 50% 126 of 284 14 of 20 38 of 47 148 of 311 15 of 18 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 164 of 324 50% 71 of 204 89 of 112 4 of 8 134 of 290 25 of 27 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 42 of 80 52% 39 of 77 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 42 of 79 53% 24 of 56 3 of 6 15 of 17 34 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 31 of 65 47% 7 of 31 23 of 31 1 of 3 25 of 57 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 58 50% 17 of 42 5 of 7 7 of 9 29 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 32 of 68 47% 14 of 44 16 of 20 2 of 4 27 of 61 0 of 0 5 of 7
4 Edson Barboza 35 of 79 44% 24 of 64 1 of 2 10 of 13 35 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 47 of 90 52% 24 of 63 22 of 26 1 of 1 42 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Edson Barboza 30 of 55 54% 22 of 45 2 of 2 6 of 8 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 41 of 76 53% 18 of 47 23 of 29 0 of 0 28 of 63 13 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.

"I'm going to go with sadique YF to be just a little faster just a hair ahead and I think that's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.

Yusuff by KO in round 3
"I think it's a late finish here for Yousef third fourth or fifth I'm going to say Yousef does officially knock him out I'll say third round there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.

"I gotta go dogger pass in this Main Event"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.

"give me Yousef and Yousef by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.

Bet Edson Barboza at +142
"I just bet Edson Barboza while you were talking cuz I was just like I had a one uh one plus 142"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.

"I'll go Ed some baroza over sadique yusf just think Edson babos has got a bit of momentum right now"
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 16 of 37 43% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 1 34 of 47 72% 182 of 209 4 of 4 100% 0 0 11:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 19 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 1 14 of 18 77% 47 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 7 of 9 77% 78 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 2 of 14 14% 8 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 20 65% 57 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 16 of 37 43% 3 of 17 6 of 12 7 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 34 of 47 72% 28 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 19 57% 2 of 5 4 of 8 5 of 6 11 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 18 77% 10 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
3 Bryce Mitchell 2 of 14 14% 1 of 11 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 13 of 20 65% 12 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.

"i'm gonna pick bryce here i don't love the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.

Mitchell by submission in round 3
"i'm gonna take him to win by i'm going to say submission actually in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.

"i think bryce mitchell has the exact template the exact style that causes barbossa problems historically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.

"bryce mitchell is going to come out here take down edson barboza hold him down land some ground and pound possibly find a sub but most likely come out here and get this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.

"i do like barboza as a dog in the spot right i know he's had moments in the past where he's lost fights due to grappling i'm just not sure if bryce can replicate a kevin lee type of wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.

"plus 130 to me in a fight that again man i it could go either way yeah i'll roll the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.

method: submission (arm triangle), round: 3
"i'm going to go the third round arm triangle sub from bryce mitchell"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (punches) R3 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 60 of 117 51% 70 of 128 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 21 of 27 77% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 33 of 95 34% 15 of 70 10 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 60 of 117 51% 31 of 80 16 of 22 13 of 15 56 of 113 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 10 of 26 38% 4 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 17 of 43 39% 6 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 19 of 56 33% 8 of 41 6 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 22 of 47 46% 10 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 4 of 13 30% 3 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 21 of 27 77% 15 of 20 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"
WIN vs Shane Burgos
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"
Expert Picks (5)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"