UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green

Angelo picks Grant Dawson very confidently, highlighting his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes that Bobby Green has abandoned his wrestling, making him one-dimensional and easy to take down. Dawson will likely ride out a boring wet blanket win. Angelo suggests Dawson can be parlayed.

Big Brady is confident in Grant Dawson, citing his recent improvements since moving to ATT and his dominant performance against Damir Ismagulov. He believes Dawson's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Bobby Green, who he thinks will not be able to stuff takedowns. He acknowledges Dawson's past cardio issues but thinks he has improved and will finish the fight before the fourth round, predicting a second-round submission.

Cody picks Grant Dawson, citing his improved cardio since moving to ATT, his wrestling ability, and his success against similar opponents like Damir Ismagulov. He notes that Bobby Green's takedown defense is good but hasn't been tested by elite wrestlers, and that Dawson's pressure and top control should be decisive. He acknowledges the line is high but believes Dawson is coming into his own.

Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green as a +325 underdog. He argues that Grant Dawson is one-dimensional, relying solely on grappling, while Bobby Green can grapple, strike, and has experience. He notes that Dawson's striking is a C-minus and that Green has never been dominated on the ground except by Islam Makhachev, who is on another level. Levi also questions Dawson's price at -425, pointing out that he was only -200 against Mark Madsen. He trusts his gut that Green can compete and is willing to take a one-unit shot.

Lucrative James picks Dawson to win by TKO, liking the +550 for Dawson by KO. He thinks the fight won't go five rounds and likes the under 4.5 rounds at -230. He believes Dawson will get top position and unleash ground and pound, as seen in past fights. He notes Green has good submission defense but Dawson's wrestling is overwhelming.

Dawson has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take Green down and control him. Green has poor takedown defense and Dawson has shown improved cardio. Dawson likely grinds out a decision win, as Green is tough to finish. The over 4.5 rounds and Dawson by decision are good prop plays. I'm not hot on the moneyline but expect Dawson to win.

Paul is tempted by Bobby Green at +320, noting that Green is difficult to take down and that Dawson's striking volume is low. He suggests Green could win by decision and that the value is appealing, but he is not fully committed. He mentions that if the number climbs, he might put a little on Green.

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Bobby Green, predicting a rear-naked choke in round three. He believes Dawson is improving, coming into his prime at 29, and training at ATT. He notes Green is 37 and giving up reach, and that a full grappling camp for an older fighter risks injury. He thinks Dawson's elusiveness on the feet will allow him to time takedowns and land shots, unlike Green's previous opponents who charged forward. He references Jared Gordon's success by being on the back foot against Green.

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer with high confidence, citing his powerful striking, pressure, and composure. He notes that Abdul Razak Alhassan is a powerful striker but headhunts and abandons his high-level Judo. Pyfer may also wrestle offensively. The only concern is Pyfer's lack of experience in longer fights, but Angelo trusts his hands and pressure.

Big Brady picks Joe Pyfer, noting that Pyfer has more ways to win, especially if he uses his grappling. He highlights Abdul Razak Alhassan's non-existent takedown defense and that Pyfer is a black belt in BJJ. He warns that if Pyfer stands and bangs, he risks Alhassan's power, but believes Pyfer will take the fight to the ground and secure a second-round submission.

Cody picks Joe Pyfer, highlighting his size, power, and well-rounded game. He notes that Alhassan is undersized at middleweight, has poor cardio, and relies on a puncher's chance. Pyfer's wrestling and durability give him multiple paths to victory, and Cody expects him to win, likely by knockout.

Daniel Levi leans Joe Pyfer but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -450. He notes that Abdul Razak Alhassan has 12 first-round KOs but fades past round one, while Pyfer is the bigger natural middleweight. However, he is not fully sold on Pyfer's competition level and acknowledges that either fighter could get knocked out. He advises against putting Pyfer in parlays at this price.

Lucrative James picks Pyfer to win by finish, likely a TKO via ground and pound. He thinks Pyfer will use his underrated grappling, setting up takedowns with his jab. He notes Pyfer trains with high-level grapplers and has competed in grappling. He sees value in Pyfer by submission at +700 but leans TKO. He believes the line is wide and Alhassan is live but not betting him.

Pyfer has a reach and height advantage, and his power should be able to keep Alhassan at distance. Alhassan is dangerous but has durability issues and is 38. Pyfer should be able to counter Alhassan's overhand rights and get a knockout. However, the -450 line is too steep; I prefer the fight doesn't go to distance prop. Pyfer by finish is likely.

Paul agrees with Pyfer, noting his prospect status and Alhassan's cardio issues. He mentions that Alhassan is undersized and has struggled at middleweight. Paul considers a submission prop at +600 as a speculative play, but his main pick is Pyfer on the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer over Abdul Razak Alhassan, predicting a first-round TKO. He notes both are first-round finishers, but Pyfer is more consistent and has grappling skills, having outgrappled Eric Anders. He cites Pyfer's reach advantage (75 inches) and size, and believes Pyfer's intimidation factor will be greater. He also mentions Alhassan couldn't KO Buckley, implying Pyfer's power is superior.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.

Angelo picks Drew Dober confidently, citing his technical kickboxing, power, and willingness to brawl. He notes that Ricky Glenn struggles when opponents bring a brawl. However, he expresses concern about Dober's chin after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola, wondering if it's the beginning of the end. He has Dober in a parlay with Kanako Murata, calling it risky.

Big Brady is very confident in Drew Dober, calling the matchup questionable and noting Ricky Glenn's poor performance in his last fight. He believes Glenn looks washed and has had long layoffs due to injuries. He expects Dober's power to be too much, predicting a first-round knockout despite Glenn only being knocked out once in his career.

Cody picks Dober but is hesitant, noting that Dober's chin may be compromised after his knockout loss to Matt Frevola. He acknowledges Glenn's sneaky power and low activity, but believes Dober's experience and power give him the edge. He does not like the line and sees better value elsewhere.

Daniel Levi picks Drew Dober, noting that Dober has always been a step ahead of Ricky Glenn in competition. He highlights Dober's power and his record for most KOs in the lightweight division, but also acknowledges Glenn's durability (only one KO loss in over 30 fights). He thinks Dober should get back on track but doesn't guarantee a KO.

Lucrative James predicts Dober wins by knockout in round two or three. He thinks the line is wide but Dober should get the finish. He notes Dober has good takedown defense but struggles to get back up if taken down. He believes Glenn is slowing down and Dober will eventually crack his chin.

Dober has power and speed advantages, and Glenn has durability concerns after a long layoff and surgeries. However, Dober is unreliable as a heavy favorite and Glenn can also knock him out. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Dober getting a KO, but the odds are too high to trust. I predict Dober by KO but won't bet the moneyline.

Paul picks Ricky Glenn as a value play, citing Dober's recent knockout loss and Glenn's volatility. He notes that Glenn has sneaky power and could catch Dober. However, he is not highly confident, calling it a high-volatility fight. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds prop as a safer bet.

The MMA Guru picks Drew Dober over Ricky Glenn, predicting a TKO. He jokes about Dober's racially motivated power but seriously notes Glenn looked like an 'old age pensioner' in his last fight against Christos Giagos, slow and predictable. He believes Dober has decent takedown defense and will land body shots, finishing Glenn in the late first round. He also mentions Glenn stands upright, making him vulnerable.

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.

Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.

Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.

Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.

Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.

Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.

Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.

Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.

Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.

Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.

Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.

Angelo picks Kanako Murata despite a two-year layoff, reasoning that she is young (30) and likely to be the same or better. He highlights her great wrestling, solid BJJ defense, and constant forward pressure with takedown threats. He believes the same version of Murata from a few years ago dominates Vanessa Demopoulos. He has a small parlay including Murata, though he admits it's risky.

Big Brady is confident in Kanako Murata, praising her wrestling and grappling as some of the best in the division. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos has poor takedown defense and is content to fight off her back, which plays into Murata's strengths. He expects Murata to control the fight on the ground and eventually find a submission, predicting a second-round submission win.

Cody picks Demopoulos as a dog, citing Murata's long layoff, broken arm, and lack of a Plan B if wrestling fails. He believes Demopoulos's BJJ and forward pressure could cause problems, and that Murata may be hesitant. He sees value in the plus money.

Daniel Levi picks Kanako Murata but is not confident at -360. He notes Murata's grinding top control and ability to neutralize opponents, but also acknowledges Vanessa Demopoulos's dangerous armbar from guard and her high effort. He sees Murata winning by decision but says it's a dog-or-pass situation and he wouldn't parlay it.

Lucrative James is confident Murata wins easily, citing her youth, prime condition, and all-around tools. He thinks Demopoulos is old and relies on low-percentage submissions like an armbar from guard. He predicts Murata by decision, as both are tough enough to survive.

Murata has been out for over two years, but she is a strong wrestler with top pressure. She should be able to close the distance, drag Demopoulos to the ground, and control her from top position. Demopoulos has shown holes in her striking and has been submitted before. However, the long layoff makes me hesitant on the chalky line. Expect Murata to win by decision.

Paul picks Demopoulos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Murata's low striking volume and long layoff, and believes Demopoulos can win a volume striking fight or via submission. He likes the plus 275 price and considers a submission prop.

The MMA Guru picks Kanako Murata over Vanessa Demopoulos. He likes that Murata took time off after an injury and likely improved. He notes Murata's win over Emily Ducote on the regional scene and her confidence in fighting a veteran early in her career. He criticizes Demopoulos for being 'coddled' and having questionable decisions, and believes Murata is more consistent. He predicts a close competitive decision but mentions potential finish.

Angelo picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. with low confidence, calling him a 'squirt' but acknowledging his BJJ and power. He notes that Aoriqileng is tough but can be out-grappled. He is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Aoriqileng, as Muñoz could be dangerous early but fade. He emphasizes this is a low-confidence pick.

Big Brady is not high on either fighter and calls this his least favorite fight on the card. He criticizes Johnny Muñoz Jr. for quitting in his last fight and notes that Aoriqileng has shown decent takedown defense and the ability to get back to his feet. He believes Aoriqileng can stuff takedowns and keep the fight standing, leading to a decision win. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Aoriqileng, citing his physicality, pressure, and power. He notes that Muñoz lacks power and has unimpressive wrestling. Aoriqileng should land the bigger shots and win a decision or late stoppage.

Daniel Levi picks Aoriqileng, citing his heavy hitting and durability. He notes that Johnny Muñoz has suspect striking and doesn't like to get hit, and that Aoriqileng can crack him. He acknowledges Muñoz's jiu-jitsu threat but thinks Aoriqileng's power and grit will be the difference.

Lucrative James believes Aoriqileng has a massive advantage on the feet and will hurt Muñoz to the body. He thinks Muñoz is flaky and will get finished on the feet, predicting a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds at even money, noting that Muñoz's wrestling is not good enough to get the fight to the ground consistently.

Aoriqileng has improved his takedown defense and trains with strong wrestlers. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his volume striking to overwhelm Muñoz. Muñoz has struggled to get fights to the ground and relies on BJJ, but his striking and wrestling have been poor. Aoriqileng should win by decision, possibly with some ground and pound.

Paul leans toward Aoriqileng, expecting him to land the more punishing strikes over 15 minutes. He is unsure about the wrestling matchup but believes Aoriqileng's pressure will be effective. He would not bet this fight with his own money.

The MMA Guru picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. over Aoriqileng. He notes Muñoz didn't look bad against Daniel Santos, who is a good finisher, and that Muñoz showed enough striking defense to avoid being finished. He believes Aoriqileng is dangerous only in round one and then fades, while Muñoz is consistently okay throughout the fight. He suggests a betting strategy: if Aoriqileng wins the first round, bet on Muñoz Jr. as Aoriqileng tends to gas.

Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.

Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.

Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.

Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.

Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.

Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.

The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'