UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
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Age 40
Height 5' 3"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Karolina Kowalkiewicz
5.54 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
5.77 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.36 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Diana Belbiţă
6.45 SLpM
41.0% Str. Acc.
6.55 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
62.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Moneyline
DraftKings -135
KO/TKO
BetWay +2200
Submission
FanDuel +650
Decision
FanDuel +110
Diana Belbiţă
Moneyline
BetWay +130
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetRivers +215
Karolina Kowalkiewicz - Fight History
LOSS vs Julia Polastri
KO R3 2:56 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julia Polastri 0 137 of 253 54% 142 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 72 of 192 37% 75 of 196 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julia Polastri 0 53 of 93 56% 58 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:46
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 61 36% 25 of 64 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Julia Polastri 0 46 of 96 47% 46 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 68 44% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
3 Julia Polastri 0 38 of 64 59% 38 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 63 31% 20 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julia Polastri 137 of 253 54% 85 of 193 42 of 49 10 of 11 123 of 233 14 of 20 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 72 of 192 37% 24 of 121 36 of 57 12 of 14 71 of 189 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julia Polastri 53 of 93 56% 31 of 67 17 of 20 5 of 6 43 of 80 10 of 13 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 61 36% 7 of 40 13 of 18 2 of 3 21 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julia Polastri 46 of 96 47% 29 of 79 14 of 14 3 of 3 42 of 89 4 of 7 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 68 44% 7 of 32 16 of 29 7 of 7 30 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Julia Polastri 38 of 64 59% 25 of 47 11 of 15 2 of 2 38 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 63 31% 10 of 49 7 of 10 3 of 4 20 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Julia Polastri
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Polastri (-450), Kowalkiewicz (+350)

Round 1
Strawweights take center stage as the prelims roll on. With a 12-year youth advantage on her side, a win for Polastri (13-5, 1-2 UFC) would lead her to a .500 record in the Octagon while dumping Kowalkiewicz (16-9, 9-9 UFC) below that threshold. A chasm of high-level experience separates the two, but it is “Psycho” who will serve as a significant betting favorite. The two ladies will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, who clocks them in as they clap hands.
Kowalkiewicz takes right to the center of the cage, and as booming chants of “Uh Vai Morrer” rain down, Polastri flashes a wry grin. The ladies toss out low kicks, and Kowalkiewicz strings together a combination ending with a left hand. Polastri resets and pitches a leg kick, only for Kowalkiewicz to counter over the top. Kowalkiewicz rips a body kick in the midst of her strike combos, and Polastri is not a fan and fires back with one much heavier. The former title challenger grimaces from the strike to her midsection, and Polastri explodes into a flurry of punches and kicks. Kowalkiewicz protects herself against the wire, and she smiles when Polastri peels back. The smile quickly turns to a frown when Polastri drives a knee home to the body, but she is able to back off and shake it off. Kowalkiewicz throws a kick, changes stances and works the body. Kowalkiewicz slips a punch and connects with a right, and she takes a few on the chin to hit the Brazilian back.
Kowalkiewicz spins with a back fist, and it collides into the guard but she is not far enough away to avoid counters. Kowalkiewicz thinks about a trip takedown when catching one of Polastri’s kicks, but she lets the limb down where there is nothing to it. Polastri again tries to tie up the Polish woman, where she spams knees to what might be an already compromised midsection. Polastri goes over the top with an elbow, and she uses her weight to press Kowalkiewicz on the fencing. Kowalkiewicz gives her back a few knees and elbows to think about, forcing a break. Kowalkiewicz whiffs on the subsequent spinning back fist. A front kick from her does split the guard, and any cheers from her corner are completely drowned out from the chants of the crowd. They trade heavy blows while standing right in the pocket, with Polastri appearing to have the power advantage and the superior speed too. Kowalkiewicz feebly spins when under fire, and Polastri lays into her with an onslaught of punches that knock the former KSW fighter into the wall. As Polastri keeps connecting, the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 2
They clap hands again to start off the second stanza, and some swelling has developed under Kowalkiewicz’ right eye. She pays it no mind as Polastri comes right at her throwing caution to the wind. Kowalkiewicz tries to take her off her feet with a takedown attempt, but Polastri shuts it down and punches her square in the face. Kowalkiewicz meanders forward to grapple again, and Polastri’s intercepting knee and uppercut shut that down. Polastri senses that Kowalkiewicz is struggling, and she walks her foe down and beats on her relentlessly. Kowalkiewicz bounds off the fence to reset, and Polastri drops her hands and takes several deep breaths to get her wind back from going all-out. Kowalkiewicz is tough as nails, and she takes advantage of this opening with distant strikes. Once Polastri is ready to engage again, she raises her hands and cracks the Polish woman. Polastri fearlessly approaches her opponent, even with her energy reserves far from full, and she welcomes striking exchanges. Kowalkiewicz puts volume together as Polastri is looking for big power blows, and although Kowalkiewicz takes some on the chin, she evades the worst of the blows…until she doesn’t.
Totally unafraid of anything that comes back at her, Polastri connects with a flurry of punches and kicks that knock Kowalkiewicz back to the wall again. When Kowalkiewicz tries to get away, Polastri raises her arms in the air to further lather up the ravenous audience. Kowalkiewicz attempts a takedown, and Polastri takes longer to stop it but still manages to stonewall the former title challenger. Polastri flashes out a jab directly on the swollen cheek, and Kowalkiewicz kicks her back in the body. Polastri slaps her midsection, and she walks through the potshots of Kowalkiewicz to land heavy punches that bust open Kowalkiewicz’ nose. Kowalkiewicz spins with an elbow that bangs off the forehead, and Polastri energizes herself into one final assault before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Polastri
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Polastri

Round 3
After 10 minutes of action, the strawweights come together in the center of the cage to hug it out. Polastri lands a single power strike, and Kowalkiewicz lets her have it with a long, effective flurry of fists and feet. Kowalkiewicz swings and ducks away to evade counters, and Polastri is still sporadically swinging for the bleachers. Kowalkiewicz sticks her foe with a short right hand, and she stuns the Brazilian for a second with another scooping uppercut. Polastri steels herself and boots Kowalkiewicz upside the head, and that only spurs Kowalkiewicz into more activity with a lengthy stretch of punches. Polastri connects with a hard body shot, and Kowalkiewicz’ body language and expression changes. Polastri digs several more strikes to the torso, and Kowalkiewicz bends over to try to take some of the sting out of them and has to actually sprint away to fully reset. Polastri walks her down like a Terminator, and her punches have developed more swelling and damage on Kowalkiewicz’ face.
With a full head of steam, Polastri steps in with a booming head kick that shakes up the ex-title challenger. Putting Kowalkiewicz’ on ice skates, Polastri marches forward and delivers a ruthless combination of punches to the head and body that have Kowalkiewicz in all sorts of trouble. With a couple minute still left on the clock, Polastri is cognizant that she does not want to punch herself out, but she knows that Kowalkiewicz is in trouble.
“Psycho” lets loose with all of her remaining energy, busting up Kowalkiewicz further and knocking her head around like a speed bag. As Kowalkiewicz is barely on her feet, possibly because the cage is behind her, Goddard intervenes to save the Polish woman from her toughness.
The crowd goes wild for the first Brazilian tonight to beat a foreign opponent, and Polastri hands Kowalkiewicz her second knockout loss—the first came from the mighty fist of Jessica Andrade. That is good company to be in.

The Official Result
Julia Polastri def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz R3 2:56 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Angelo leans towards Julia Polastri, citing her better striking, speed, and cleaner technique. He notes Karolina is too old and slowing down. However, he does not trust Julia enough at the current odds and prefers the over 2.5 rounds prop instead of the moneyline.

over 2.5 rounds
"I think Julia's a better striker. I think she's faster. She's cleaner. Because of that, I think she wins here. I do not trust her enough at these odds. But the over two and a half is good as gold."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Big Brady picks Julia Polastri, citing her youth (27 vs 39), and being better everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He expects Polastri to come forward landing bigger shots and win a decision in Brazil. He acknowledges Karolina is tough and has decent volume, but believes Polastri's advantages are clear.

"Pastri, I think she's just better everywhere, you know, especially at the both stages of their career."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Cody picks Polastri but is not confident, noting Kowalkiewicz's experience and potential to make it close. He believes Polastri's youth and speed will be key, but expects a decision that could go either way. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I just can't pick Karolina but I will fully admit this is a lot closer to the CF dot model."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Lucrative James is very confident in Julia Polastri, citing Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (turning 40) and lack of improvement. He believes Polastri is the better striker and grappler, and expects her to dominate. He notes that Kowalkiewicz is a striker and won't be able to wrestle effectively. He sees a finish as likely, pointing to Polastri's submission skills and the poor odds on the under 2.5 rounds (+334) and KO (+900) as value. He picks Polastri confidently.

under 2.5 rounds (+334), Julia Polastri by KO (+900), Julia Polastri by submission (+450)
"I side with the big favorite in this fight, boys. I side with Julia Palestri."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Manpreet is confident in Polastri, citing her youth, speed, and well-rounded game. He expects her to mix takedowns with striking and win a clear decision, as Kowalkiewicz is past her prime and on a losing streak. He doesn't mind the chalky odds.

Polastri by decision
"I don't mind Palatstri at chalky odds here. She's just in a far better place than Kowalkiewicz is in her career."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

Paul picks Polastri but is hesitant, calling it close to a 'CF dot model.' He notes Kowalkiewicz's age and 0-4 record against Brazilians, but expects a competitive decision. He suggests Polastri by decision.

decision
"I did end up taking her because with Karolina, if it wasn't the end her last fight, I think it's going to be the end this one."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Julia Polastri

The MMA Guru picks Julia Polastri over Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing Kowalkiewicz is past her prime at nearly 40 and has looked poor recently. He notes Polastri has wins over decent competition and is fighting in Brazil. He predicts a decision win, likely 29-28.

over 2.5 total rounds (for prize picks)
"I'm going to trust in Julia Palastri to get this one done by decision. Maybe 30-27, maybe 2928."
LOSS vs Denise Gomes
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Denise Gomes 0 46 of 98 46% 61 of 115 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:02
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 73 of 144 50% 91 of 166 0 of 3 0% 1 0 5:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Denise Gomes 0 7 of 16 43% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 22 of 36 61% 32 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:11
2 Denise Gomes 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 23 of 45 51% 28 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Denise Gomes 0 26 of 51 50% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 28 of 63 44% 31 of 68 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Denise Gomes 46 of 98 46% 16 of 57 19 of 24 11 of 17 39 of 89 7 of 9 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 73 of 144 50% 30 of 85 33 of 44 10 of 15 53 of 115 20 of 28 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Denise Gomes 7 of 16 43% 0 of 5 5 of 5 2 of 6 4 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 22 of 36 61% 8 of 17 12 of 15 2 of 4 12 of 25 10 of 11 0 of 0
2 Denise Gomes 13 of 31 41% 5 of 19 4 of 6 4 of 6 12 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 23 of 45 51% 9 of 24 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 36 5 of 9 0 of 0
3 Denise Gomes 26 of 51 50% 11 of 33 10 of 13 5 of 5 23 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 28 of 63 44% 13 of 44 12 of 14 3 of 5 23 of 54 5 of 8 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Big Brady sees Gomes as much younger, more powerful, and with grappling upside. He believes she can win on the feet or via takedowns. Despite the -500 line, he thinks Gomes gets her hand raised, likely by decision.

Gomes by decision
"give me GES here minus 500 it's absolutely ridiculous but at the end of the day I think she gets her hand raised and I think it's by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Cody disagrees with Paul, arguing that Kowalkiewicz's wrestling is not good enough to exploit Gomes' weakness. He notes that even when opponents wrestle Gomes, she still lands significant strikes. Cody believes Gomes' youth, power, and speed will overwhelm the 39-year-old Kowalkiewicz, likely by decision or knockout.

"I actually think that Denise Gomez probably knocks her out might knock her out but more than likely just wins a 29-28 fairly comfortably."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, assuming Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's experience and grappling advantage will take over as Gomes fades. He notes the odds are too wide in favor of Gomes, who he considers not good and prone to mistakes.

Odds too wide; Gomes should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'll take Kovalkiewicz and the assumption that Gomes doesn't knock her out immediately."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Daniel Vreeland picks Denise Gomes due to her youth, physicality, and momentum, contrasting with Karolina Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and decline. He notes Kowalkiewicz's past success but believes Gomes' power and aggressive style will be too much. However, he has zero interest in betting at -500 odds.

"I'm going with Denise, the age, the physicality, the momentum on her side, but I have zero interest in laying minus 500 on her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Lucrative James picks Denise Gomes to win by knockout, citing her heavy power and Karolina's declining career trajectory. He believes Gomes will be too physical and that Kowalkiewicz won't be able to implement her game plan of volume and grappling. He expects a brutal knockout.

by KO
"I'm picking Denise Gomez here and I think she gets a knockout potentially a brutal knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Gomes is expected to control the striking with her power and possibly get some grappling success to win on the scorecards, similar to how Yasmin Lucindo beat Kowalkiewicz.

"look for Gomez to control the Striking round with the power that she possesses but maybe even get some grappling success of her own to get some control time and win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is considering the underdog Kowalkiewicz at +390, noting that Gomes has shown takedown defense issues. He thinks if Kowalkiewicz can replicate her performance against Syana Gomez Warez, she could make it competitive. Paul admits it's a sucker bet but is tempted by the price.

"Karolina plus 390 is in consideration for me this week Cody and it's gross."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

The Guru picks Denise Gomes, expecting a brutal assault. He notes Kowalkiewicz's age (39) and her scared reaction when hit. He believes Gomes is a big, physical fighter for the division and will get a TKO win.

TKO win
"I'm going with Denise Gomez getting this one done over kolina kovalovich by TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Denise Gomes

Zane picks Gomes but is hesitant. He notes that Gomes has power and can knock out Kowalkiewicz early, but if she doesn't, she runs out of ideas and makes mistakes. He acknowledges Kowalkiewicz's grappling and backtake game could be a threat, but thinks Gomes' youth and power give her the edge.

"I think I'm going to pick Gomes though, still."
LOSS vs Iasmin Lucindo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Iasmin Lucindo 0 42 of 111 37% 47 of 119 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 83 of 136 61% 91 of 144 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Iasmin Lucindo 0 7 of 18 38% 8 of 19 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 36 69% 31 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:48
2 Iasmin Lucindo 0 26 of 61 42% 26 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 72 52% 38 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Iasmin Lucindo 0 9 of 32 28% 13 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 20 of 28 71% 22 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Iasmin Lucindo 42 of 111 37% 17 of 73 15 of 22 10 of 16 40 of 108 2 of 3 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 83 of 136 61% 53 of 100 23 of 28 7 of 8 57 of 105 13 of 18 13 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Iasmin Lucindo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 13 1 of 1 2 of 4 5 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 36 69% 18 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 17 9 of 12 7 of 7
2 Iasmin Lucindo 26 of 61 42% 9 of 38 11 of 13 6 of 10 26 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 72 52% 23 of 53 13 of 16 2 of 3 37 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Iasmin Lucindo 9 of 32 28% 4 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 20 of 28 71% 12 of 19 4 of 5 4 of 4 11 of 17 3 of 5 6 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Angelo picks Lucindo due to her youth and grappling advantage, but warns the odds are too rich. He notes that if Lucindo can't get takedowns, she's clueless on the feet and Kowalkiewicz could run away with it. He advises caution.

Angelo says 'the minus 330 odds they're just a little too rich for my blood'
"eisan lucendo is the pick but please be careful"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Big Brady views Lucindo as a big step up in competition for Kowalkiewicz. He believes Lucindo is better everywhere, with power and takedown ability. He expects Lucindo to win a decision, controlling the fight wherever it goes.

"I'm going to go decision for Lucindo."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Cody picks Lucindo, citing her youth, speed, wrestling advantage, and submission win. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins are over lower-level competition and she's 38. Cody expects Lucindo to mix takedowns and win.

"I think lucendo can win on the feet but yeah mix in those takedowns..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Vreeland picks Kowalkiewicz by decision, citing her experience, volume striking, durability, and strength of schedule. He notes that Lucindo is young and talented but has never faced someone with Kowalkiewicz's level. He mentions Kowalkiewicz's recent four-fight win streak and improved confidence. He considers the decision prop as a potential value play.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm gonna go out on a limb I'm not confident but I'mma pick kolina kovak kavich"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucindo is a 22-year-old at minus-400 odds, but stylistically she should be able to drag the fight into her realm with grappling and heavy top pressure. Kowalkiewicz has the striking advantage, but Lucindo has a great chin and ability to crash the pocket and change levels. Lucindo grinds out a decision win.

minus-400 odds
"look for lucino to utilize her grappling to grind out kovok kavich over 15 minutes to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

Paul picks Lucindo, emphasizing her speed, power, and wrestling. He notes Kowalkiewicz is on a four-fight win streak but against weak opposition, and her takedown defense is suspect. Paul sees Lucindo as the future and expects her to win.

"Gotta go Lucindo... young hot Brazilian prospect in Brazil who's got legitimate skills..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Iasmin Lucindo

The MMA Guru picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22) and power advantage over the 38-year-old Kowalkiewicz. He notes Lucindo's win over Poana Viana and her ability to inflict damage, while questioning Kowalkiewicz's recent level of competition. He believes Lucindo's physicality and aggression will be decisive.

"Yasmin lendo wins"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 141 of 267 52% 155 of 283 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:15
Diana Belbiţă 0 99 of 261 37% 108 of 270 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 39 of 74 52% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
Diana Belbiţă 0 35 of 83 42% 41 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:13
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 41 of 76 53% 52 of 87 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 66 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 61 of 117 52% 62 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Diana Belbiţă 0 34 of 112 30% 34 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 141 of 267 52% 94 of 203 42 of 58 5 of 6 123 of 244 17 of 21 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 99 of 261 37% 57 of 199 33 of 50 9 of 12 85 of 241 13 of 18 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 39 of 74 52% 29 of 60 10 of 14 0 of 0 29 of 62 10 of 12 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 35 of 83 42% 21 of 64 11 of 14 3 of 5 25 of 70 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 41 of 76 53% 31 of 62 7 of 11 3 of 3 34 of 66 6 of 8 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 66 45% 18 of 49 10 of 15 2 of 2 26 of 60 3 of 4 1 of 2
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 61 of 117 52% 34 of 81 25 of 33 2 of 3 60 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 34 of 112 30% 18 of 86 12 of 21 4 of 5 34 of 111 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz
"give me Carolina kovak cavich to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I gotta go with Carolyn colvikovich all day... that really does come down to the back class"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

"I'm gonna go Carolina because I think historically she's always been the better fighter"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

bet at +160, line should be -120 or so
"I bet Diana B at plus 160 about a week ago now she's plus 120 or something... I think this fight should be a pick him if not Bel beat a favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

"give me a shot on the underdog here in belza and I think she picks up her win... by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I like Carolina... Carolina by decision is probably that's Plus 105... I think the money lines just fine as it is minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina kovalkovich over to Yahoo beta not the most confident but I think I'm all right with this one"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · May 20, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 139 of 237 58% 148 of 249 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 68 of 221 30% 83 of 237 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 84 50% 42 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 28 of 71 39% 36 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 82 67% 56 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 22 of 86 25% 22 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 42 of 71 59% 50 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:29
Vanessa Demopoulos 0 18 of 64 28% 25 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 139 of 237 58% 94 of 187 30 of 33 15 of 17 134 of 230 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 68 of 221 30% 49 of 190 13 of 23 6 of 8 65 of 216 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 84 50% 33 of 73 7 of 8 2 of 3 37 of 77 5 of 7 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 28 of 71 39% 20 of 62 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 82 67% 30 of 55 16 of 17 9 of 10 55 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 22 of 86 25% 13 of 71 7 of 13 2 of 2 22 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 42 of 71 59% 31 of 59 7 of 8 4 of 4 42 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vanessa Demopoulos 18 of 64 28% 16 of 57 2 of 5 0 of 2 18 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vanessa Demopoulos

Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.

Bet on over 2.5 rounds (round line)
"I like Vanessa to win this fight she probably wins by decision but these are the fights right these are the fights where the veteran can sort of take advantage of the situation"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Vanessa Demopoulos

Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.

submission in round 2
"I'm going to take Demopolis as the dog here I'm gonna say she goes out there and gets Carolina down to the man and submits her in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.

"I too will take care of the cavage."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.

"I'm riding with Kovalkavers. I think Demopolis is going to be one of those fighters that like I was just totally coming in..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I'm still gonna go with Carolina because I like the fact that she got back on track"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vanessa Demopoulos

The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.

submission
"give me the underdog here give me Vanessa Demopolis and I think she wins this fight by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.

"Caroline is the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina ... I think she's gonna get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Vanessa Demopoulos

Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.

"I'm going to take Demopolis. I think she's just going to keep showing up and surprising."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 74 of 202 36% 90 of 230 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 77 of 263 29% 79 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 5 of 15 33% 20 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:45
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 6 of 31 19% 7 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 31 of 86 36% 31 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 27 of 105 25% 27 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 38 of 101 37% 39 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Silvana Gómez Juárez 0 44 of 127 34% 45 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 74 of 202 36% 55 of 170 13 of 25 6 of 7 71 of 198 3 of 4 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 77 of 263 29% 46 of 224 24 of 30 7 of 9 75 of 259 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 5 of 15 33% 4 of 12 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 6 of 31 19% 3 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 6 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 31 of 86 36% 21 of 71 8 of 13 2 of 2 30 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 27 of 105 25% 18 of 95 7 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 105 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 38 of 101 37% 30 of 87 4 of 9 4 of 5 36 of 98 2 of 3 0 of 0
Silvana Gómez Juárez 44 of 127 34% 25 of 102 15 of 20 4 of 5 42 of 123 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Angelo acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker, but he is swayed by Gómez Juárez's raw power and durability. He notes that both are 37 years old and that Kowalkiewicz's five-fight losing streak, even against top competition, is hard to ignore. He picks Gómez Juárez based on a gut feeling but encourages viewers to fade his pick and not bet on this fight because it is evenly matched.

"the pick here is going to be Gomez Juarez I encourage you to fade this pick don't bet on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Big Brady picks Silvana Gómez Juárez to win by first-round knockout. He notes Kowalkiewicz has looked awful in recent fights, absorbs many strikes, and has poor striking defense. He highlights Gómez Juárez's power, having dropped Vanessa Demopoulos and knocked out Liang Na. He doubts Kowalkiewicz will wrestle, as she has only two takedowns in her UFC career. He believes if it stays on the feet, Gómez Juárez will land a big shot and finish her.

Gómez Juárez by KO in round 1
"give me Juarez to win or as to win by first round KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Silvana Gómez Juárez

Cody leans towards Gómez Juárez, noting that Kowalkiewicz has poor takedown accuracy and likely won't grapple, leading to a striking battle. He thinks Gómez Juárez has significant power and that Kowalkiewicz's chin may not hold up. However, he acknowledges that Gómez Juárez is one-dimensional and could be submitted if taken down, so he is not confident.

"I'm gonna go with a slight lean towards uh Silvana Juarez actually the other way."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that her win over Felice Herrig showed she still has the tools to win, even if she had to convince herself to absorb damage. He points out that Gómez Juárez is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Kowalkiewicz is a surprisingly good wrestler. Connor believes that if Kowalkiewicz can survive the early exchanges, she can take the fight to the ground and win.

"I got to take Cola Cabbage to get the win here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, clinch work, and well-roundedness. He notes that Gómez Juárez has one-punch knockout power but is one-dimensional and hasn't faced this level of competition. Levi believes if Kowalkiewicz fights smart—using clinch, knees, and takedowns—she can win. He is concerned about her recent skid and durability but thinks she has a path to victory.

"I think Carolina's the more well uh more well-rounded fighter and I'll pick her for that reason"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The host believes Kowalkiewicz has the technical striking advantage and superior Jiu-Jitsu, which she can use to drag the fight to the ground and potentially submit Juarez. He dismisses concerns about Kowalkiewicz's chin, noting she took hard shots from Yanan and didn't go down. He sees her as the better overall fighter and expects her to get her hand raised, possibly via submission.

"I do like Carolina here I don't mind the line that she's currently at around that pick him spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, believing she is being disrespected. He notes that she is a more complete fighter and that Gómez Juárez is a one-trick pony with power but no backup plan. Paul thinks Kowalkiewicz's chin and heart have held up against elite competition, and that she can win by volume and experience. He sees the pick'em price as fair.

"Carolina kovalkovich... I think she's kind of getting disrespected I think she's a much more complete fighter... Carolina for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Silvana Gómez Juárez

The MMA Guru picks Silvana Gómez Juárez, citing her nasty hands and quick boxing combos. He notes Kowalkiewicz's history of being KO'd and hurt, and her tendency to close her eyes when punching. He believes Gómez Juárez will land big boxing combos and get a quick win, possibly a first-round KO.

"I'm going with silver Silvana Gomez Suarez she's got nasty hands"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Zane picks Kowalkiewicz, emphasizing that Gómez Juárez is a clean puncher but has no grappling game and can be taken down easily. He notes that Kowalkiewicz's style relies on absorbing damage, but she has only been knocked out once. Zane also points out that Gómez Juárez's submission attempts are based on poor positional understanding, making her a liability on the ground.

"I think that's a very fortunate out for Cola Cabbage if things do start to get messy."
WIN vs Felice Herrig
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:01 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 55 of 122 45% 59 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 82 of 123 66% 102 of 146 0 of 2 0% 2 0 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 30 of 73 41% 34 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Felice Herrig 0 48 of 70 68% 50 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:16
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 25 of 49 51% 25 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felice Herrig 0 34 of 53 64% 52 of 74 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 55 of 122 45% 34 of 92 20 of 28 1 of 2 49 of 116 6 of 6 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 82 of 123 66% 54 of 94 23 of 24 5 of 5 57 of 96 17 of 18 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 30 of 73 41% 15 of 50 15 of 22 0 of 1 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 48 of 70 68% 30 of 51 15 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 55 14 of 15 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 25 of 49 51% 19 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 1 24 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Felice Herrig 34 of 53 64% 24 of 43 8 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 41 3 of 3 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert pick date unknown
Felice Herrig

Angelo calls this a coin flip fight with too many variables. He notes Karolina is the better fighter but looks like a shell of herself, while Felice is scrappy and well-rounded. He reluctantly picks Felice because he believes she still has passion, but advises not to bet on this fight.

advises not to bet on this fight
"honestly i don't want to pick it i don't want to bet it there's too many variables to work on here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by a very close decision. He thinks the fight will play out like their first fight, with Kowalkiewicz stuffing takedowns and out-striking Herrig. However, he is very hesitant because both fighters are on long losing streaks and he questions Kowalkiewicz's mindset after five straight losses. He calls it a 'complete mess' and an 'unbeatable fight' from a betting perspective.

"give me carolina to win i'll say she stuffed the takedowns and out strikes felice herrig"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, arguing that her losses came against elite competition while Herrig has been inactive. He notes Herrig's takedown-dependent style and thinks Kowalkiewicz can stuff takedowns and win on volume. He is hesitant due to both fighters' age and recent form.

"i'll go with carolina but i don't know if i can put money my hard-earned dollars on karolina kovalkovic in the year 2022."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz as a slight underdog, noting she won their first fight and that both fighters are past their prime. He mentions Herrig's long layoff and focus on OnlyFans, while Kowalkiewicz has health issues. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight and advises against betting, but leans toward Kowalkiewicz for the pick.

"i'll go with the underdog who actually beat the favorite one so let's go with carolina to get back on track"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her superior striking and takedown defense from their first fight. He acknowledges both fighters are washed but believes Kowalkiewicz's activity and training at ATT give her an edge. He is not confident due to women's MMA volatility.

"give me uh give me carolina kovakovich but of course women's mma so you just you can't have a ton of confidence"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz but with clear disdain and low confidence. He calls the fight a 'sympathy bout' and questions why it's on the card. He notes Kowalkiewicz has good grappling defense and is scrappy, and she won the first fight, so he expects her to win again. However, he admits 'who knows' and seems to care little about the outcome.

"i'm going to go kovalkavich she's got good grappling defense in her career she's scrappy on the feet"
LOSS vs Jessica Penne
Submission (armbar) R1 4:32 · UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Aug 07, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jessica Penne 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jessica Penne 8 of 12 66% 3 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 5 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 12 of 19 63% 9 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 8 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Angelo picks Kowalkiewicz, stating she is on a different level than Penne. He notes she was almost a champion and should win, though Penne can make it ugly by leaning on her. He mentions she has trained with a new team and expects her to piece up Penne.

"Carolina is gonna put an absolute whooping on Penne... she's on a completely different level."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady thinks both fighters are past their prime but favors Kowalkiewicz due to her higher volume and better striking. He notes Penne will want takedowns but Kowalkiewicz has solid takedown defense (75%) and trains with JJ. He worries about Penne controlling rounds if she gets takedowns, but ultimately picks Kowalkiewicz by decision.

"I'm gonna take Carolina here I think it's a solid matchup for her."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz but with hesitation. He notes her losing streak and potential motivation issues, but believes she is the more skilled fighter. He expects a close decision win.

fight goes to decision
"i will go with karolina kovakiewicz but whereas it should be just like let's hammer this baby home it's like there's buyer beware now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jessica Penne

Daniel Levi slightly leans Jessica Penne as the underdog, citing that both fighters are past their primes but Penne has been more active and showed some offensive output in her last fight. He notes that Karolina Kowalkiewicz has not been the same since her diagnosis and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Penne can win a split decision by taking the back or having top control, though he acknowledges Kowalkiewicz is better on the feet.

"I'll actually slightly lean towards the dog Jessica Penne"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Kowalkiewicz should keep the fight on the feet and use her striking to outwork Penne. Penne needs to grapple to win, but Kowalkiewicz has good movement and should avoid the clinch. The striking difference is wide, and Kowalkiewicz may even get a TKO. She is coming back after a long layoff but has a favorable matchup. Decision is most likely, but a KO prop has value.

Kowalkiewicz by KO/TKO +900; Kowalkiewicz by decision +120
"I do like Carolina here I think she gets a victory out for you know after uh her extended layoff um decision is probably the most likely outcome."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul does not make a clear pick. He acknowledges the narrative around Kowalkiewicz's motivation and Penne's hunger, but does not commit.

TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Jessica Penne. He argues Kowalkiewicz has faced much better competition and is more technical, despite being older (35). He criticizes Penne's striking and notes she didn't deserve her last win. He predicts Kowalkiewicz will outstrike Penne to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with karolina kovalkovic way more experienced way better technically and i think she'll just outstrike jessica penney to a 30-27 unanimous decision win"
Diana Belbiţă - Fight History
LOSS vs Dione Barbosa
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 4:13 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diana Belbiţă 0 20 of 69 28% 23 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 27 of 50 54% 35 of 58 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diana Belbiţă 0 20 of 69 28% 23 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dione Barbosa 0 27 of 50 54% 35 of 58 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diana Belbiţă 20 of 69 28% 6 of 43 6 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 27 of 50 54% 23 of 46 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diana Belbiţă 20 of 69 28% 6 of 43 6 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dione Barbosa 27 of 50 54% 23 of 46 2 of 2 2 of 2 25 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dione Barbosa vs. Diana Belbita
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Barbosa (-500), Belbita (+340)

Round 1
Of all the fights tonight, this one will see the widest betting line between favorite and underdog. Having won just twice in seven UFC offerings, it makes some sense that Belbita (15-9, 2-5 UFC) should serve with plus money, but +625 is where she stands. About to close as one of the most heavily favored UFC fighters this year, Barbosa (7-3, 1-1 UFC) is expected to power through while accompanied by -1000 odds. Never tell “Warrior Princess” the odds. Referee Keith Peterson will be the overseer for this flyweight contest, one that opens up with a respectful clap of hands and no nonsense in sight. They both lob low kicks at one another and pull them back. Barbosa strikes first with a jab, and she skirts away from the counter. The Brazilian scores an overhand right, and Belbita is there to pay her back this time with a long left and a ripping left to the body. She goes for the body shot a few more times, ignoring what Barbosa puts on her to connect cleanly. The face of “Warrior Princess” ducks into punches and throws back in hopes of clipping Barbosa with a counter. Barbosa parries a head kick, and she races back to avoid several punches chained into a head kick. Barbosa flashes her jab, and she stays in the pocket too long and gets popped with an overhand right. Belbita attacks the body again, making sure to fighting in flurries, and she times another big right hand up top. Belbita ends a combo with a low kick, and she absorbs anything the Brazilian hurls at her without batting an eye. Belbita goes to the body, opening up an overhand right to the head. She jams the ball of her foot on Barbosa’s stomach, and dings her with a few right hands. Barbosa pressures her against the fencing and spins with an elbow that clips her. When Belbita leans over to try to shake it off, Barbosa hits the level change she suddenly wants and lands practically in full mount.
Barbosa leans her weight down, and she locks up an arm-triangle choke before long. Belbita pumps her hips back and forth, but she cannot buck the Brazilian off of her. As Barbosa presses down with all she has, Belbita has no choice but to surrender.
Just like that, Barbosa lifts her submission rate as a pro to 50%, while landing the first arm-triangle of her career.

The Official Result
Dione Barbosa def. Diana Belbita R1 4:13 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

Angelo is very confident that Dione Barbosa will dominate Diana Belbiţă. He highlights Dione's Judo background and grappling, while noting Diana has zero power, low fight IQ, and has been vocal about not caring about her career. He believes Diana is just showing up for a paycheck and will get bullied in all exchanges. Angelo calls it a 'mly whopping' and says Dione runs through her.

"I think deani Barbosa runs through di Bita I don't think it's competitive at all I think she beats the absolute [__] out of her."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

Big Brady is very confident in Dione Barbosa, citing her judo and BJJ black belts against Diana Belbiţă, who has been submitted five times. He believes Barbosa will take the fight to the ground and submit Belbiţă, likely via rear-naked choke or armbar in the first round.

first round submission
"give me Barbosa give me Barbosa by by first round submission"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

Connor agrees with Zane, calling Belbita a fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes that Barbosa is strong and has a solid grappling game, and that Belbita tends to panic and make bad decisions. He expects Barbosa to win easily.

"Yeah, I just don't understand it and it's not helped by jump. Oh the odds for that fight reflect it as they should"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

Barbosa's BJJ prowess and Belbiţă's poor takedown defense will lead to Barbosa finding a submission. The pick is a lean based on grappling advantage.

submission
"I have to lean with the BJJ prowess of Barbosa and the poor takedown defense of Bita which will lead to Barbosa eventually finding that submission and getting the tap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

The Guru picks Dione Barbosa based on physicality, strength, and power, contrasting her muscular build with Diana Belbiţă's lack of snap or pop. He believes Belbiţă cannot impose damage on anyone and that Barbosa will be too strong and powerful, likely getting takedowns and finishing inside the distance.

Dione Barbosa wins inside the distance
"Dion Barbosa is going to be too strong, too big, too powerful. She takes out Dannabel Bea inside the distance."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Dione Barbosa

Zane picks Barbosa confidently, stating that Belbita is not physically capable of competing at this level. He notes that Barbosa is a good athlete with fundamental striking and takedown ability, and that she should easily handle Belbita, who has been crushed by even marginally good fighters.

Barbosa opened at -469, now -865; line has moved significantly.
"So she is going to probably wipe the floor with belbita seems that way that's the pick"
LOSS vs Molly McCann
Submission (armbar) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Molly McCann 0 42 of 91 46% 43 of 92 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:08
Diana Belbiţă 0 29 of 77 37% 29 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Molly McCann 0 42 of 91 46% 43 of 92 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:08
Diana Belbiţă 0 29 of 77 37% 29 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Molly McCann 42 of 91 46% 27 of 71 14 of 19 1 of 1 34 of 76 2 of 4 6 of 11
Diana Belbiţă 29 of 77 37% 9 of 46 13 of 23 7 of 8 24 of 72 5 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Molly McCann 42 of 91 46% 27 of 71 14 of 19 1 of 1 34 of 76 2 of 4 6 of 11
Diana Belbiţă 29 of 77 37% 9 of 46 13 of 23 7 of 8 24 of 72 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Molly McCann

Angelo picks Molly McCann, expecting her to dominate in a dirty slugfest. He notes that Diana Belbiţă is more well-rounded but McCann's pressure and brawling style should prevail. He warns that McCann has poor submission defense but Belbiţă is not a good grappler. He does not bet on this fight.

No bet
"Molly's going to be the pick I think she's going to win this fight but hopefully everybody learned their lesson betting on Molly mccan in these favorite spots"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Molly McCann

Big Brady picks Molly McCann to win by second-round submission. He notes that this is a rematch from 2019 where McCann dominated Belbiţă, nearly finishing her multiple times. He believes McCann will come in with a chip on her shoulder after two embarrassing losses. However, he cautions that Belbiţă has improved and McCann is moving down to strawweight for the first time at age 33, so the weight cut is a concern. If she makes weight, he expects a finish.

second round, submission
"give me Molly mccan to win this fight by second round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Cody picks Belbiţă, arguing she has improved significantly since their first fight while McCann has stagnated. He notes Belbiţă's better kickboxing, improved takedown defense, and youth. He thinks McCann's chin and cardio are declining, and Belbiţă can outwork her.

"I'll take the dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Molly McCann

McCann should use her takedowns and top control to grind out Belbiţă, who lacks takedown defense. However, the host is hesitant to trust McCann as a -305 favorite given her history of losing as a big favorite. The pick is McCann by decision.

"I know better than to try to trust her as a minus 300 favorite in any spot period."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Paul picks Belbiţă, calling the plus-220 price a mistake. He notes her improvements under coach Krzysztof Alin, especially in wrestling, and her youth advantage. He thinks she can outpoint McCann or even finish her.

"that number's dumb"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Molly McCann

The MMA Guru picks Molly McCann over Diana Belbiţă, despite acknowledging McCann's recent struggles. He argues Belbiţă is not capable of inflicting damage, having no TKO wins on her record (though he later finds one early in her career). He believes McCann's aggression and power advantage will be the difference in a scrappy fight, predicting a 30-27 decision.

30-27 decision
"I'm going Molly mccan funnily enough... I think that Molly maccan is Tough Enough aggressive enough I think that's going to be the difference... I'm going to go Molly mccan fun scrap 3027."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 141 of 267 52% 155 of 283 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:15
Diana Belbiţă 0 99 of 261 37% 108 of 270 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 39 of 74 52% 41 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
Diana Belbiţă 0 35 of 83 42% 41 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:13
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 41 of 76 53% 52 of 87 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:46
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 66 45% 33 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 0 61 of 117 52% 62 of 118 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Diana Belbiţă 0 34 of 112 30% 34 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karolina Kowalkiewicz 141 of 267 52% 94 of 203 42 of 58 5 of 6 123 of 244 17 of 21 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 99 of 261 37% 57 of 199 33 of 50 9 of 12 85 of 241 13 of 18 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 39 of 74 52% 29 of 60 10 of 14 0 of 0 29 of 62 10 of 12 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 35 of 83 42% 21 of 64 11 of 14 3 of 5 25 of 70 10 of 13 0 of 0
2 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 41 of 76 53% 31 of 62 7 of 11 3 of 3 34 of 66 6 of 8 1 of 2
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 66 45% 18 of 49 10 of 15 2 of 2 26 of 60 3 of 4 1 of 2
3 Karolina Kowalkiewicz 61 of 117 52% 34 of 81 25 of 33 2 of 3 60 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 34 of 112 30% 18 of 86 12 of 21 4 of 5 34 of 111 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz
"give me Carolina kovak cavich to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I gotta go with Carolyn colvikovich all day... that really does come down to the back class"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

"I'm gonna go Carolina because I think historically she's always been the better fighter"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

bet at +160, line should be -120 or so
"I bet Diana B at plus 160 about a week ago now she's plus 120 or something... I think this fight should be a pick him if not Bel beat a favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

"give me a shot on the underdog here in belza and I think she picks up her win... by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I like Carolina... Carolina by decision is probably that's Plus 105... I think the money lines just fine as it is minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina kovalkovich over to Yahoo beta not the most confident but I think I'm all right with this one"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diana Belbiţă 0 106 of 208 50% 154 of 258 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:04
Maria Oliveira 0 64 of 168 38% 85 of 200 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diana Belbiţă 0 41 of 84 48% 60 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Maria Oliveira 0 28 of 66 42% 36 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:20
2 Diana Belbiţă 0 22 of 37 59% 49 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:29
Maria Oliveira 0 7 of 17 41% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:37
3 Diana Belbiţă 0 43 of 87 49% 45 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Maria Oliveira 0 29 of 85 34% 30 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diana Belbiţă 106 of 208 50% 71 of 165 20 of 25 15 of 18 76 of 176 22 of 24 8 of 8
Maria Oliveira 64 of 168 38% 45 of 142 11 of 18 8 of 8 62 of 166 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diana Belbiţă 41 of 84 48% 30 of 68 4 of 7 7 of 9 33 of 76 4 of 4 4 of 4
Maria Oliveira 28 of 66 42% 19 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Diana Belbiţă 22 of 37 59% 9 of 24 11 of 11 2 of 2 6 of 20 12 of 13 4 of 4
Maria Oliveira 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Diana Belbiţă 43 of 87 49% 32 of 73 5 of 7 6 of 7 37 of 80 6 of 7 0 of 0
Maria Oliveira 29 of 85 34% 21 of 72 4 of 9 4 of 4 28 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maria Oliveira

Angelo picks Maria Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has been out for over a year due to injuries, while Maria has fought three times in that span. He believes Maria's durability and forward pressure will be key, and that Diana may struggle with takedowns or slow down. He sees Maria winning a close fight.

"I like Maria Oliveira to get this done right off the rip"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady picks Diana Belbiţă because she can exploit Maria Oliveira's poor takedown defense with her judo and throws. Oliveira is the better technical striker, but Belbiţă throws high volume and can mix in takedowns to win close rounds. He also notes the Canadian factor may help in a close decision. He is not confident and has little interest in the fight.

"I think where she does win this fight is going to be just mixing of the takedowns getting the fight down to the mat... give me balbita for the win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Cody picks Diana Belbiţă, noting that Oliveira is willing to stand and trade, which plays into Belbiţă's hands. He believes Belbiţă has improved her cardio and counter-wrestling under Kruelion. He thinks Oliveira's lack of wrestling will allow Belbiţă to keep the fight standing and win a striking battle. He expects a decision win for Belbiţă.

Over 2.5 rounds (parlayed with under in Nelson vs Bilder)
"I think belvita wins it so maybe a Strike King Tit for Tat type battle"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maria Oliveira

Connor also picks Maria Oliveira, agreeing that Belbiţă lacks core strength and can be pushed around. He notes that Oliveira's losses are to very good athletes like Vanessa Demopoulos, Tabitha Ricci, and Kana Asakura, while Belbiţă is not at that level. Connor thinks the odds could be more skewed toward Oliveira, as Belbiţă has struggled against anyone who takes her out of her game.

Oliveira opened -122, now -100; Belbiţă opened -122, now -110
"Yeah, I I think the odds could stand to be a little more skewed towards all of air here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Daniel Levi picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her higher volume and better cardio compared to Maria Oliveira, who he considers one of the worst fighters in the UFC. He notes that Oliveira pushes her punches and has poor fundamentals, while Belbiţă puts out a ton of volume and has shown grit. He believes Belbiţă will outwork Oliveira and win a decision, especially with the Canadian crowd behind her.

"I got Deanna belvita to alvolume Marina Oliveira and win a decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

James picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision. He notes that Belbiţă has better striking fundamentals with her hands up and sharp punches, while Maria Oliveira is wild with her chin up. He believes Belbiţă can also take Oliveira down if she wants, as Oliveira has a terrible ground game. He predicts the fight goes to decision but suggests betting on the fight ending inside distance at plus money due to the volatility of low-level women's MMA.

Fight ends inside distance at +200; KO at +900 to +1000
"I am predicting Diana balbita to win via decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă has an aggressive striking style with good body work and forward pressure. She's been improving her defensive grappling and should land more effective strikes than Oliveira, who was dropped multiple times in her last fight. The home crowd advantage in Vancouver may help her in a close decision. However, this is a low-confidence lean given both women are similar strikers.

"I'm gonna have to lean with the Canadian or Romanian Canadian here in Diana balbita I feel like her aggressive striking style will be able to land more effective strikes on Oliveira"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Maria Oliveira

Paul leans toward Maria Oliveira, citing her slight grappling advantage and reach. He notes that Belbiţă's big win over Hannah Goldie came with a significant reach advantage, and Oliveira is similarly sized. He thinks Oliveira's takedowns and submission threat could be the difference. He acknowledges it's a close fight and expects a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds (parlayed with under in Nelson vs Bilder)
"I'm gonna lean ever so slightly to the Brazilians so watch me have another Shoei next week because of a home cooking Canadian decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean pick date unknown
Maria Oliveira

The MMA Guru leans towards Maria Oliveira because she is faster and more talented on the feet, with a range advantage despite being shorter. He notes that Diana Belbiţă has poor grappling, having been submitted when attempting a takedown and out-grappled by Molly McCann. He expects a stand-up fight and predicts a close decision win for Oliveira.

"I am leaning towards Maria Oliveira because both of these women aren't all that good whatsoever"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maria Oliveira

Zane picks Maria Oliveira, citing Belbiţă's lack of core strength, which makes her easy to push around. He notes that Oliveira is a more comfortable, athletic striker who is faster and more confident. Belbiţă's striking has improved, but she lacks the athleticism to impose her will. Zane thinks Oliveira's losses have come against strong grapplers or athletes, and Belbiţă does not fit that mold, so Oliveira should win.

Oliveira opened -122, now -100; Belbiţă opened -122, now -110
"So i'm going to take all of her."
LOSS vs Gloria de Paula
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gloria de Paula 0 87 of 252 34% 124 of 295 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:44
Diana Belbiţă 0 88 of 175 50% 113 of 201 1 of 5 20% 0 0 5:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gloria de Paula 0 28 of 96 29% 35 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Diana Belbiţă 0 27 of 61 44% 32 of 66 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
2 Gloria de Paula 0 33 of 88 37% 47 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Diana Belbiţă 0 31 of 61 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:59
3 Gloria de Paula 0 26 of 68 38% 42 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Diana Belbiţă 0 30 of 53 56% 42 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gloria de Paula 87 of 252 34% 43 of 200 28 of 35 16 of 17 79 of 244 8 of 8 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 88 of 175 50% 70 of 156 17 of 18 1 of 1 71 of 156 17 of 19 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gloria de Paula 28 of 96 29% 12 of 76 10 of 14 6 of 6 27 of 95 1 of 1 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 27 of 61 44% 21 of 54 5 of 6 1 of 1 21 of 53 6 of 8 0 of 0
2 Gloria de Paula 33 of 88 37% 16 of 69 12 of 14 5 of 5 29 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 31 of 61 50% 25 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 55 6 of 6 0 of 0
3 Gloria de Paula 26 of 68 38% 15 of 55 6 of 7 5 of 6 23 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 30 of 53 56% 24 of 47 6 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Angelo picks Diana Belbiţă, citing her pressure, experience, and takedowns as the difference. He acknowledges Gloria de Paula is the better striker, but believes Belbiţă's well-roundedness and forward pressure will win out. He notes if de Paula keeps it standing, she could win.

"i like diane belveda to win diana balbita to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady hates this fight and refuses to bet on it. He reluctantly picks Diana Belbiţă because she throws more volume and might take de Paula down, but he has no confidence. He notes de Paula has poor fight IQ and doesn't try to get up from takedowns. He predicts Belbiţă wins by decision.

"I hate this fight I'm not going to bet it if I had to make a pick I'm going to go with balbita"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Cody picks Belbiţă, noting her improvements under coach Kru Allen at Iron Tiger. He highlights her better volume and power, and believes she can out-strike de Paula. Cody acknowledges that both fighters have poor wrestling, but thinks Belbiţă's striking is superior and that she should win a stand-up fight.

"i think balbita should have a little bit better power should have a little bit better volume and if she does not take balbita down i think he's just gonna go volume in the way of balbida"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Levi leans toward Belbiţă, citing her confidence from a recent win and de Paula's struggles in the UFC. He notes de Paula looked like a deer in headlights and has been knocked out. Levi believes Belbiţă will be more aggressive and break away in the later rounds, though he acknowledges both have liabilities on the ground.

"i'm leaning towards her way i just think she should be more confident herself"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gloria de Paula

De Paula is the cleaner striker with better discipline and leg kicks. She should counter Belbiţă's wild forward pressure. The concern is Belbiţă's volume could sway judges, but de Paula's crisp striking should earn a decision. A KO at +500 is also intriguing but less likely.

de Paula by decision (+200), de Paula by KO (+500)
"my official prediction was the apollo by decision at plus 200 because i could see this go in the full 15 minutes where she just has a cleaner striking performance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Paul picks Belbiţă, citing de Paula's recent knockout loss and Belbiţă's longer combinations. He expects Belbiţă to be a slight favorite by fight time and likes the value at -110.

"i kind of think bell beat is a good bet here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

The MMA Guru picks Diana Belbiţă to win by decision, citing her experience and reach advantage. He notes that Gloria de Paula has been KO'd early in her career and is inconsistent. While both fighters are low-level, Belbiţă's 14-6 record compared to de Paula's 5-4 gives him confidence in the more experienced fighter.

decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with diana bell beta gloria paula is actually better than her record may suggest she does look decent in certain moments with her technique but just very very inconsistent"
WIN vs Hannah Goldy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diana Belbiţă 1 117 of 211 55% 126 of 222 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Hannah Goldy 0 92 of 182 50% 107 of 198 2 of 6 33% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diana Belbiţă 1 48 of 76 63% 55 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Hannah Goldy 0 26 of 44 59% 30 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:14
2 Diana Belbiţă 0 29 of 57 50% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hannah Goldy 0 29 of 56 51% 31 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Diana Belbiţă 0 40 of 78 51% 41 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hannah Goldy 0 37 of 82 45% 46 of 91 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diana Belbiţă 117 of 211 55% 68 of 152 22 of 29 27 of 30 101 of 185 14 of 22 2 of 4
Hannah Goldy 92 of 182 50% 56 of 137 25 of 32 11 of 13 58 of 140 18 of 23 16 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diana Belbiţă 48 of 76 63% 23 of 47 14 of 18 11 of 11 34 of 58 12 of 14 2 of 4
Hannah Goldy 26 of 44 59% 12 of 26 10 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 33 6 of 9 2 of 2
2 Diana Belbiţă 29 of 57 50% 16 of 40 4 of 6 9 of 11 27 of 53 2 of 4 0 of 0
Hannah Goldy 29 of 56 51% 14 of 40 11 of 12 4 of 4 21 of 46 8 of 10 0 of 0
3 Diana Belbiţă 40 of 78 51% 29 of 65 4 of 5 7 of 8 40 of 74 0 of 4 0 of 0
Hannah Goldy 37 of 82 45% 30 of 71 4 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 61 4 of 4 14 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Angelo picks Diana Belbiţă because she has solid takedown defense, is just as busy as Hannah Goldy, and is much taller. He notes that Hannah is strong but doesn't have knockout power or use her physicality to ragdoll opponents. He calls this a 'pick 'em fight' and advises not to bet on it, as the odds at +155 aren't enough to justify a bet. He also likes the over on the monkey knife fight line, expecting a high-volume decision.

over on monkey knife fight line (more/more)
"i also have diana balbita winning because her takedown defense is very solid she's just as busy and she's much much taller"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Big Brady picks Diana Belbiţă as the dog, citing her significant reach advantage (7.5 inches) and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Hannah Goldie struggled against Miranda Granger's reach and expects Belbiţă to use her length to win a decision. He acknowledges Belbiţă's poor fight IQ in her last bout but believes she won't make the same mistake here.

Belbiţă by decision
"i'll take balbita as the dog here overhand at goldie... getting me down at balbita to win the fight by a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert pick date unknown

Cody does not make a clear pick, calling it a stay away fight. He notes both fighters have question marks and the line has moved to a pick'em. He says if he had to force a dog, he would take the dog, but he doesn't have a firm stance.

"this is like the definition of stay away from me because i don't really trust either one of them"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Hannah Goldy

Daniel Levi picks Hannah Goldy, expecting her to tip and run from the outside and win a close decision. He notes that Belbiţă is aggressive but redlines and makes mistakes, while Goldy is the polar opposite, playing it safe. Levi acknowledges the layoff for Goldy but expects improvements, and sees value in Goldy at the pick'em price.

"i'm going to go against the public here i'm going to take hannah goldie be a close decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Jacob picks Diana Belbiţă based on her walkout with a fox draped over her shoulders, calling it 'enough for me.' He acknowledges that neither fighter is very good and that the fight is tough to pick. He notes that Hannah Goldy looked green on the ground in a grappling match he watched. He does not express strong confidence and sees the fight as a toss-up.

"i'm going with diana just because there was one fight where she came out with a fox draped over her shoulders"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

The host picks Diana Belbiţă, noting her striking advantage and reach (68 inches vs Goldy's 61). He acknowledges her poor fight IQ in the past but believes the year off and training with Adrian Wooley and Kyle Nelson will help. He expects Belbiţă to keep the fight at distance and win by decision, as Goldy is durable but has struggled against longer opponents. He also mentions a potential TKO finish but leans decision.

Belbiţă by decision +175; Belbiţă by TKO +650 (sprinkle)
"i got to go with the babita side of things as i do believe she's going to be able to land the more impactful shots"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul also does not make a clear pick, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes Belbiţă has a reach advantage and Goldy has output but is coming off a long layoff. He says if you got plus money on Belbiţă earlier, that was the move, but now it's even money and he doesn't have a firm stance.

"yeah it's definitely stay away but i would say it's a 50 50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

The Guru picks Belbiţă as an underdog, citing her experience, youth, and activity advantage over Goldy. He criticizes Goldy's inactivity and questions her commitment due to her OnlyFans account. He notes Belbiţă's reach advantage and believes she will win by decision.

"i'm actually going to go with deanna bell beta here as an underdog"
LOSS vs Liana Jojua
Submission (armbar) R1 2:43 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Liana Jojua 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 11 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Diana Belbiţă 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Liana Jojua 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 11 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Diana Belbiţă 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 3 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Liana Jojua 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Liana Jojua 5 of 9 55% 3 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Liana Jojua

Big Brady picks Liana Jojua as an underdog, noting Belbiţă is the better striker but has poor takedown defense. He thinks Jojua can take the fight to the ground where she is dangerous with submissions. He predicts an ugly decision or submission win for Jojua, calling it likely the worst fight on the card.

"give me Jojo gonna go with the underdog here to win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Daniel Levi picks Diana Belbiţă, calling her the tougher fighter and noting that Liana Jojua has not impressed, pulling stunts in her last fight. He acknowledges Belbiţă has been submitted multiple times but believes she showed toughness against Molly McCann and can keep the fight standing to outpoint Jojua.

"I definitely think Bell betta is the tougher chick... I'm gonna go about betta here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

The Guru dismisses both fighters as terrible, but gives the edge to Diana Belbiţă due to her experience, size, and reach advantage. He criticizes Belbiţă's padded record but notes that Liana Jojua has not beaten anyone of note and lost to Sarah Moras. He ultimately picks Belbiţă because experience and physical attributes tend to matter in low-level matchups.

"the Annabelle Beach has more experience I'm just gonna go with that because neither of them at any good whatsoever and probably shouldn't be in the UFC but still they're in the UFC experience size reach tends to come in …"
LOSS vs Molly McCann
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Molly McCann 0 113 of 238 47% 126 of 252 5 of 14 35% 1 0 3:39
Diana Belbiţă 0 98 of 252 38% 104 of 260 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Molly McCann 0 36 of 83 43% 36 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:41
Diana Belbiţă 0 46 of 112 41% 47 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
2 Molly McCann 0 38 of 60 63% 50 of 73 3 of 9 33% 1 0 2:52
Diana Belbiţă 0 18 of 31 58% 23 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
3 Molly McCann 0 39 of 95 41% 40 of 96 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Diana Belbiţă 0 34 of 109 31% 34 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Molly McCann 113 of 238 47% 86 of 199 17 of 24 10 of 15 73 of 177 8 of 14 32 of 47
Diana Belbiţă 98 of 252 38% 58 of 201 23 of 31 17 of 20 76 of 219 18 of 29 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Molly McCann 36 of 83 43% 22 of 64 9 of 11 5 of 8 27 of 72 4 of 4 5 of 7
Diana Belbiţă 46 of 112 41% 23 of 86 14 of 17 9 of 9 36 of 95 10 of 17 0 of 0
2 Molly McCann 38 of 60 63% 35 of 57 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 17 2 of 3 27 of 40
Diana Belbiţă 18 of 31 58% 10 of 22 4 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 19 6 of 8 4 of 4
3 Molly McCann 39 of 95 41% 29 of 78 7 of 12 3 of 5 37 of 88 2 of 7 0 of 0
Diana Belbiţă 34 of 109 31% 25 of 93 5 of 9 4 of 7 32 of 105 2 of 4 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Big Brady picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, noting her recent three-fight winning streak and that her previous losses came against elite competition. He believes Diana Belbiţă is a step down in competition and criticizes Belbiţă's losses to lower-tier fighters. He thinks Kowalkiewicz can have success with grappling, as Belbiţă has been taken down frequently. He predicts a decision win but is not in love with the price tag.

decision win for Karolina Kowalkiewicz
"give me Carolina kovak cavich to win this fight I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Cody picks Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience, resurgence, and superior grappling. He notes that Belbiţă has only fought low-level opponents and has poor takedown defense. Kowalkiewicz should be able to mix in takedowns and control the fight, likely winning a decision.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I gotta go with Carolyn colvikovich all day... that really does come down to the back class"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Daniel Levi leans Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her historical level and recent confidence boost from a three-fight win streak. He notes her improved grappling and high output in her last fight. However, he acknowledges she is 37 and has had inconsistent performances, and that Diana Belbiţă has good striking volume. He is not fully confident but picks Kowalkiewicz based on her overall career.

"I'm gonna go Carolina because I think historically she's always been the better fighter"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Lucrative James is confident in Belbiţă, having bet her at +160. He argues that the market overvalues skill-for-skill while ignoring intangibles: Belbiţă hits harder, is younger (37 vs prime), and has a reach and height advantage. He believes Kowalkiewicz has a magnet for 4-ounce gloves and will get knocked down or finished. He thinks the line should be a pick'em or Belbiţă favored.

bet at +160, line should be -120 or so
"I bet Diana B at plus 160 about a week ago now she's plus 120 or something... I think this fight should be a pick him if not Bel beat a favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Diana Belbiţă

Belbiţă is younger and has been improving, using volume striking and forward pressure. Kowalkiewicz is the more technical striker but has been inconsistent. If Belbiţă can keep the fight standing and avoid being controlled on the ground, her volume could sway the judges. She is worth a shot as an underdog, though Kowalkiewicz has more experience. Expect a decision win for Belbiţă.

"give me a shot on the underdog here in belza and I think she picks up her win... by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Paul picks Kowalkiewicz, noting her ability to win via volume or grappling. He mentions Belbiţă's reach advantage but believes Kowalkiewicz's experience and takedown ability will be decisive. He likes the moneyline and also considers the decision prop.

Kowalkiewicz by decision
"I like Carolina... Carolina by decision is probably that's Plus 105... I think the money lines just fine as it is minus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Karolina Kowalkiewicz

The MMA Guru picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz over Diana Belbiţă, though not very confident. He notes Kowalkiewicz looked good in her last fight against Vanessa Demopoulos and is on a three-fight win streak after a long losing streak, building confidence. He dismisses Belbiţă's wins over Maria Oliveira and Molly McCann as unimpressive, and points out that Belbiţă was finished by an Instagram model. He believes Kowalkiewicz's momentum and better competition give her the edge.

"I'm gonna go with Carolina kovalkovich over to Yahoo beta not the most confident but I think I'm all right with this one"