Career Averages - Nate Maness
Career Averages - Mateus Mendonça
Nate Maness
Mateus Mendonça
Nate Maness - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 37 of 75 | 49% | 41 of 80 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 2 | 0 | 2:41 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 89 of 168 | 52% | 139 of 234 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 14 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 30 of 56 | 53% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 46 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 20 of 30 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Jimmy Flick | 0 | 26 of 51 | 50% | 56 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 37 of 75 | 49% | 8 of 26 | 21 of 35 | 8 of 14 | 28 of 64 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 89 of 168 | 52% | 63 of 135 | 17 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 64 of 131 | 19 of 26 | 6 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 14 of 31 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 30 of 56 | 53% | 19 of 44 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 5 of 16 | 31% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 33 of 61 | 54% | 26 of 50 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 42 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 9 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 18 of 28 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jimmy Flick | 26 of 51 | 50% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.
Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.
Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.
Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.
Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.
Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.
Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.
Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.
Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.
Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.
Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.
Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Nate Maness | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tagir Ulanbekov | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Nate Maness | 4 of 10 | 40% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Maness as a heavy underdog, citing his better boxing, takedown defense, and ability to stick to a game plan. He notes Ulanbekov looked bad against Tim Elliott, not wrestling enough and being taken down easily. He considers a half-unit moneyline bet or a +3.5 prop.
Big Brady likes Ulanbekov's grappling and control, expecting him to take Maness down and keep him there. He notes Maness's poor get-up game and the fact that Maness is cutting to flyweight for the first time, which could affect his cardio. However, he is wary of Maness's ability to pull off wins and plans to stay away from betting on this fight.
Cody picks Nate Maness as a live underdog. He notes that Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC, with close split decisions against Bruno Silva and Alan Nascimento, and a loss to Tim Elliott where he was taken down and outstruck. Maness has shown heart and takedown defense, surviving Tony Gravely's wrestling and knocking him out in the second round. At 125 pounds, Maness may have better takedown defense and striking. Cody thinks Maness can keep the fight standing and land combinations, making Ulanbekov desperate and shooting takedowns. He recommends waiting for weigh-ins to see Maness at 125.
Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov, having bet him at -175 for two units. He believes Ulanbekov's grappling and top control will be too much for Nate Maness, who struggles to get up from bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's toughness and recent training with Khabib's team, and expects a dominant performance.
The host is concerned about Ulanbekov's inability to control opponents on the ground and his close fights. He acknowledges Maness's durability and striking power, but thinks Ulanbekov can land enough takedowns and clinch work to win a decision. He is not confident enough to bet at -190 and will stay away.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nate Maness as an underdog. He highlights Maness's takedown defense against Johnny Munoz (2 for 16) and Tony Gravely (1 for 6), and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen against Gravely where he broke his jaw and still won. Paul notes that Maness is moving down to 125, which could be an X-factor, as he may be stronger and have better takedown defense. He thinks Maness's striking is superior to Ulanbekov's, and that Ulanbekov's camp may underestimate Maness because Umar Nurmagomedov beat him easily. Paul locks in Maness as an underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov, criticizing Maness's performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he accepted being on bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's quality grappling, evidenced by a split decision win over Allan Nascimento. He predicts Ulanbekov will control the fight, winning 29-28 by taking dominant positions in later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 46 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 74 of 100 | 74% | 128 of 161 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 10:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 40 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nate Maness | 0 | 35 of 48 | 72% | 56 of 72 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 2 of 20 | 10% | 1 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 74 of 100 | 74% | 60 of 79 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 57 of 67 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 18 of 21 | 85% | 17 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 21 of 31 | 67% | 18 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 26 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nate Maness | 35 of 48 | 72% | 25 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 27 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.
Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.
Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.
Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.
The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 1 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 64 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Tony Gravely | 1 | 36 of 68 | 52% | 44 of 77 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 45 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Tony Gravely | 1 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 32 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 1 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Tony Gravely | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 12 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 31 of 63 | 49% | 26 of 57 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Tony Gravely | 36 of 68 | 52% | 18 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 10 of 14 | 25 of 55 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 15 of 35 | 42% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tony Gravely | 26 of 41 | 63% | 11 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 17 of 32 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Tony Gravely | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.
Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.
Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.
Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.
Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.
Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 55 of 112 | 49% | 63 of 120 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Luke Sanders | 1 | 33 of 70 | 47% | 38 of 75 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 30 of 61 | 49% | 37 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Luke Sanders | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Luke Sanders | 1 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 55 of 112 | 49% | 40 of 90 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 47 of 102 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 33 of 70 | 47% | 27 of 62 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 30 of 61 | 49% | 19 of 43 | 5 of 7 | 6 of 11 | 25 of 55 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 25 of 51 | 49% | 21 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Sanders | 20 of 40 | 50% | 17 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 49 of 78 | 62% | 129 of 168 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 9:42 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 158 of 194 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 51 of 78 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 2 of 15 | 13% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 33 of 42 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 66 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 0 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 45 of 48 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 80 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 49 of 78 | 62% | 18 of 34 | 25 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 16 of 40 | 20 of 21 | 13 of 17 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 21 of 50 | 42% | 9 of 37 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 34 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 19 of 38 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 17 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 2 of 15 | 13% | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nate Maness | 14 of 22 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nate Maness | 16 of 18 | 88% | 3 of 4 | 12 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Muñoz Jr. | 9 of 17 | 52% | 1 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. The host did not mention Nate Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Jr. at all.
The host picks Ray Borg, stating that Borg is a much better grappler and that Maness has not faced high-level competition. He notes that Borg is only 26 and not on the decline, and that Maness will be hesitant to throw bombs due to Borg's takedown threat. He expects Borg to grind out a decision or possibly finish later in the fight. He also mentions the line is a steal and expects it to close higher.
The host picks Ray Borg (Nate Maness's opponent) to win by unanimous decision. He praises Borg's youth (26), grappling, and recent activity, and notes that Maness hasn't fought anyone of Borg's caliber. He believes Borg will grind out a win with takedowns and control, and that Maness lacks the experience against high-level grapplers.
Mateus Mendonça - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 38 of 62 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 4:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 43 of 90 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:51 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 16 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:56 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 19 of 36 | 52% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 10 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 14 | 42% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 13 of 27 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jesus Aguilar | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 4 of 9 | 44% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mendonca (-162), Aguilar (+136)
Round 1
The prelims roll on with the flyweights again, with Tachi Palace Fights vet Aguilar (9-2, 1-1 UFC) aiming to make it two in a row at the expense of the skidding Mendonca (10-2, 0-2 UFC). The Chute Boxe Diego Lima product made it to the UFC courtesy of 10 straight wins, only to run into brick walls of Javid Basharat and Nathan Maness to hand him a pair of losses. The two men with finish rates of 70% or above come together and touch gloves as referee Fernando Salas watches on, and they introduce themselves to one another with kicks. Aguilar kicks low, Mendonca kicks the body and presses all the way forward to scoop Aguilar off his feet. Aguilar fights back to his feet, and he resists a throw and pushes his foe against the fence to knee the thigh a few times. The pace slows to a crawl as Mendonca eventually tries to toss Aguilar to the mat, but he cannot keep him there for more than a second. Aguilar keeps grinding, and Mendonca sells out for a body lock takedown and an outside trip that succeeds in putting Aguilar down. Mendonca shifts quickly to side control, where he resides on top until Aguilar reverses him successful and starts bashing on top. Mendonca briefly threatens with a high guard, and Aguilar shakes out of it and scores some ground strikes while stacking Mendonca up. Mendonca hunts for a triangle choke, and Aguilar slams his way out of it at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 2
The second round opens tentatively, with both men pawing at one another from a safe range. Mendonca suddenly crashes the pocket and pursues a takedown, where he leverages Aguilar down to the mat. After some control time, Mendonca loses top position and Aguilar slings him down. The two scramble wildly, and Mendonca manages to take the back and start hunting for the neck. Aguilar turns to put his back against the fence, and Mendonca clings to him and bowls Aguilar over to move to half guard. The Brazilian practically jumps into full mount, and he unleashes a fury of right hands as Salas watches closely. Aguilar turns to his side and nearly gets pounded out, but he ends up surviving the assault and defend himself intelligently enough all while the crowd implores him to keep fighting. Aguilar jumps back to his feet with sheer force of will, and Mendonca tries to snatch up a guillotine choke. Aguilar pulls out of it, and he starts slugging. Aguilar hurts Mendonca in an exchange, and he shoots for a takedown instead of taking advantage of the damage. Aguilar relocates himself into full mount, and he starts slashing down with elbows. Aguilar postures up and smacks Mendonca around with strikes, and lowers himself down so as to not create openings to escape. Aguilar looks for more offense, and Mendonca use the moment to fight his way back to his feet. Mendonca shoots in from too far away, and Aguilar shoves him over and starts landing punches all while Mendonca elevates him. The frantic round ends with Aguilar in the air getting flipped over by his opponent.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Round 3
Aguilar swings for the bleachers to start off the round, and as Mendonca counters with a kick, Aguilar sprints towards him and knocks him over. On the way down, the Mexican snatches up a guillotine choke, and he tries to lock it down with full mount. By the skin of his teeth, Mendonca survives the submission and pushes Aguilar over, and he slides on top to move to half guard. Mendonca smothers from top control, opening up every so often to land a short right hand. Aguilar looks to hip escape or at least scoot himself to the fence, and Mendonca stifles him until Salas stands them up. Aguilar thanks the referee by going right to offense, swinging hard and stinging Mendonca. Mendonca throws back, and Aguilar answers with a level change. Mendonca uses the body lock to turn Aguilar around and chuck him to the mat like a basket of dirty laundry. A wild scramble ensues, and both men briefly take top position, until Mendonca winds up getting back control. Aguilar has one arm held tightly by his opponent, allowing Mendonca to drill him with punches from the free hand on the other side. Mendonca wraps up the body triangle and aims for the neck with a choke, and Aguilar hand-fights to stop the choke attempt. Mendonca allows Aguilar to turn so he can shift to full mount, but before he can rain down shots, Aguilar turns over. Mendonca locks down an unorthodox triangle choke as Aguilar does this, but time expires before anything comes of it. Based on previous tallies so far tonight, scorecards could be all over the map here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
The Official Result
Jesus Aguilar def. Mateus Mendonca via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mendonça, agreeing with the sportsbooks. He notes the wide variance between public and bookmaker opinion and sides with the books. He believes Mendonça is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and on the ground.
Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by third-round submission, but with low confidence as he has been flipping on this fight. He notes Aguilar has a 62-inch reach which is a concern, but he is a great grappler with decent wrestling. He criticizes Mendonça's poor fight IQ and submission-over-position style, and mentions that Mendonça is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, while Aguilar has been there for six weeks. He expects the fight to hit the mat where Aguilar can win grappling exchanges.
Cody picks Aguilar, calling Mendonça a 'goof' and questioning why he's a favorite. He notes Aguilar has cardio for days, a decent submission game, and has finished fights late. He thinks if Mendonça doesn't catch him early, Aguilar will tire him out and put a beating on him. He sees it as a good live betting opportunity.
The host is leaning towards Aguilar, believing his power punching style will keep Mendonça on the back foot. He thinks Aguilar is durable enough to handle Mendonça's technical striking and will push the pace to exploit Mendonça's cardio issues. He expects Aguilar to either grind with wrestling or find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Aguilar. He notes Mendonça looked lost in his last fight against Nate Maness, with a terrible game plan. Aguilar has cardio and submissions, and Mendonça's weight cut to 125 may be an issue. He thinks Aguilar can survive the initial onslaught and take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 0 | 29 of 35 | 82% | 103 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nate Maness | 29 of 35 | 82% | 26 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.
Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.
Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.
Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.
Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.
Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.
Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 0 | 95 of 130 | 73% | 125 of 164 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 29 of 88 | 32% | 70 of 133 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 35 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 12 of 43 | 27% | 14 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 35 of 45 | 77% | 53 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 7 of 24 | 29% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 0 | 28 of 34 | 82% | 37 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 36 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javid Basharat | 95 of 130 | 73% | 62 of 93 | 25 of 28 | 8 of 9 | 60 of 90 | 10 of 14 | 25 of 26 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 29 of 88 | 32% | 21 of 72 | 3 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 25 of 83 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Javid Basharat | 32 of 51 | 62% | 18 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 43 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 12 of 43 | 27% | 8 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Javid Basharat | 35 of 45 | 77% | 27 of 35 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 16 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 7 of 24 | 29% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | |
| 3 | Javid Basharat | 28 of 34 | 82% | 17 of 22 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mateus Mendonça | 10 of 21 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Basharat, having placed a 3-unit bet at -309. He praises Basharat's well-rounded game, striking defense, and grappling. He believes Mendonça's competition is weak and his style is not suited for MMA. He expects Basharat to win comfortably.
Big Brady picks Javid Basharat confidently, praising his well-rounded skills and impressive win over Tony Gravely. He notes that Basharat outwrestled Gravely, a top wrestler, and has good striking, power, and cardio. He thinks Mendonça is talented but too inexperienced for this step up, and that Basharat will pull away as the fight goes on. He predicts a decision win for Basharat, though Mendonça may have early moments.
Cody picks Basharat but is less confident, noting Mendonça's potential and youth. He sees Basharat winning by decision and likes the 'Basharat by decision' prop at +150. He acknowledges Mendonça could be live if he lands a front kick.
Jacob picks Mendonça despite acknowledging Basharat is the better fighter. He believes Mendonça's aggression and power could overwhelm Basharat early. He notes Basharat's low guard and vulnerability to pressure. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at inside the distance props.
Paul is confident in Basharat, citing his wrestling, cardio, and experience against tougher opponents (Trevin Jones, Tony Gravely). He sees Mendonça as unproven and limited, and expects Basharat to win wherever the fight goes. He considers Basharat by decision at +150.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.
Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.
Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.
Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.
Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.
Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.
Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.
The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.
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