UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 5' 6"
Reach 71"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Nate Maness
3.14 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.88 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
0.68 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
80.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mateus Mendonça
1.66 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.14 SApM
30.0% Str. Def.
2.54 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Nate Maness
Moneyline
Caesars +240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
BetWay +1400
Decision
BetRivers +650
Mateus Mendonça
Moneyline
BetMGM -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +170
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
BetWay +240
Nate Maness - Fight History
WIN vs Jimmy Flick
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Perez vs. Taira · Jun 15, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 37 of 75 49% 41 of 80 1 of 8 12% 2 0 2:41
Jimmy Flick 0 89 of 168 52% 139 of 234 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:05
Jimmy Flick 0 30 of 56 53% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:27
2 Nate Maness 0 5 of 16 31% 7 of 19 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:50
Jimmy Flick 0 33 of 61 54% 46 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
3 Nate Maness 0 18 of 28 64% 20 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:46
Jimmy Flick 0 26 of 51 50% 56 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 37 of 75 49% 8 of 26 21 of 35 8 of 14 28 of 64 9 of 11 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 89 of 168 52% 63 of 135 17 of 23 9 of 10 64 of 131 19 of 26 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 14 of 31 45% 1 of 10 9 of 14 4 of 7 12 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 30 of 56 53% 19 of 44 8 of 9 3 of 3 24 of 50 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 5 of 16 31% 1 of 5 2 of 6 2 of 5 5 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 33 of 61 54% 26 of 50 6 of 10 1 of 1 23 of 42 6 of 10 4 of 9
3 Nate Maness 18 of 28 64% 6 of 11 10 of 15 2 of 2 11 of 20 7 of 8 0 of 0
Jimmy Flick 26 of 51 50% 18 of 41 3 of 4 5 of 6 17 of 39 7 of 10 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Nate Maness confidently, calling it a mismatch. He notes Nate is well-rounded with good submissions, power, and takedown defense, while Jimmy Flick is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking and takedowns. He believes Nate wins 29 out of 30 times and should dominate, possibly by finish. He suggests parlaying Nate.

Parlay suggestion
"Nate Maness is the pick man I don't see Nate Maness getting caught in a flying triangle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness, highlighting his takedown defense, power, and cardio. He notes that Maness has fought tough competition at 135 and is now at his natural weight class of 125. Cody believes Flick is one-dimensional (submission or bust) and that Maness will avoid submissions and knock him out or win a decision. He warns that flyweight fights can be unpredictable but is confident in Maness.

"Nate Maness rightful favorite... I think he wins this fight I'm picking him likely a top ticket guy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Maness, citing his length and range striking. He expects Maness to pick Flick apart and make him shoot sloppy shots. He notes Flick's pattern of getting beaten up before finishing or being finished, and believes Maness will pound him out as Flick fatigues and pulls guard.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness in this spot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Jacob picks Nate, emphasizing he should not grapple with Jimmy and should stay on the feet to avoid submissions. He notes Nate's length and striking advantage, and that Jimmy is dangerous only if he gets a hold on the ground. He expects Nate to win easily by keeping the fight standing.

"Nate should be able to use his length stay on the [__] feet don't grapple with this guy and just hit him in the face"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 13, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness should win by knockout if he keeps the fight upright, but Flick is squirmy and dangerous in the clinch and on the back. This makes me hesitant to take the chalk on Maness. I'll predict Maness by knockout but a small sprinkle on Flick by submission is not bad.

small sprinkle on Flick by submission
"I will still predict Maness to win this fight by knockout but a small sprinkle on flick by submission is is not a bad way to go about it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul picks Nate Maness, noting that Flick's only path to victory is a submission and that Maness has good takedown defense. He points out that Flick has been knocked out multiple times and that Maness has power. Paul thinks Maness will win, possibly by knockout.

"I like Nate Maness I think he wins and I do think that Jimmy Flick is probably sub or bust."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 11, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness but expresses worry about Jimmy Flick's knack for pulling off random wins. He thinks Maness has a wrestling background and a standup advantage, and that he will be big enough at flyweight not to be manhandled. He criticizes Maness for his poor performance against Umar Nurmagomedov but believes Flick's inconsistency and past desire to quit make Maness the safer pick. He expects Maness to avoid submissions and find a TKO.

"I'm gonna go with Nate Maness I think he's a little bit more well-rounded and I think he can avoid the submissions and find a TKO maybe"
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.

Waiting for +3.5 spread prop on Nate Maness
"I'm going to pick mandanka there because he is so dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.

"I'll take mandon to win this fight by decision but I think it's going to be a lot closer than this line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.

"I understand why he's the favorite I will be picking him but um I'm a little bit nervous about it as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.

wishes for better price (e.g., -185)
"I think Matteo's McDonald's is going to make a statement here and show that he is an emerging Prospect in the flyweight division"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Mateus Mendonça

Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.

Maness decision +550 (small bet)
"I'm going to predict mandona round 1 KO but I actually like Maness if you're GNA have a bet overall"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.

third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Nate Maness here and I think he actually finds a finish I'm going to call it a third round TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.

"I'm kind of having a better look at this one from a live betting spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.

"I'm going to go with mendonsa I think he has the finishing potential advantage"
LOSS vs Tagir Ulanbekov
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:11 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:34
Nate Maness 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 0 4 of 9 44% 9 of 14 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:34
Nate Maness 0 4 of 10 40% 23 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 9 44% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2
Nate Maness 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tagir Ulanbekov 4 of 9 44% 4 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 2
Nate Maness 4 of 10 40% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Angelo picks Maness as a heavy underdog, citing his better boxing, takedown defense, and ability to stick to a game plan. He notes Ulanbekov looked bad against Tim Elliott, not wrestling enough and being taken down easily. He considers a half-unit moneyline bet or a +3.5 prop.

maybe I'll convince myself to do a half a unit money line this could also be another plus three and a half spot
"I'm gonna go with Nate here because I think he's got the better boxing I know he's got the better takedown defense and I think I trust him to stick to a game plan"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Big Brady likes Ulanbekov's grappling and control, expecting him to take Maness down and keep him there. He notes Maness's poor get-up game and the fact that Maness is cutting to flyweight for the first time, which could affect his cardio. However, he is wary of Maness's ability to pull off wins and plans to stay away from betting on this fight.

Ulanbekov wins by decision
"I do like to gear here to win but again I'm staying away from this fight and Damon s is a guy that just keeps pulling off these wins"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Cody picks Nate Maness as a live underdog. He notes that Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC, with close split decisions against Bruno Silva and Alan Nascimento, and a loss to Tim Elliott where he was taken down and outstruck. Maness has shown heart and takedown defense, surviving Tony Gravely's wrestling and knocking him out in the second round. At 125 pounds, Maness may have better takedown defense and striking. Cody thinks Maness can keep the fight standing and land combinations, making Ulanbekov desperate and shooting takedowns. He recommends waiting for weigh-ins to see Maness at 125.

"for the purposes of this show I'll I'm gonna pick Nate manesse but like I'm really on the fence here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov, having bet him at -175 for two units. He believes Ulanbekov's grappling and top control will be too much for Nate Maness, who struggles to get up from bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's toughness and recent training with Khabib's team, and expects a dominant performance.

Bet 2 units at -175
"I played to gear at -175 to win two units"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The host is concerned about Ulanbekov's inability to control opponents on the ground and his close fights. He acknowledges Maness's durability and striking power, but thinks Ulanbekov can land enough takedowns and clinch work to win a decision. He is not confident enough to bet at -190 and will stay away.

Ulanbekov by decision
"I am going to take tagira here I think he wins by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nate Maness

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Nate Maness as an underdog. He highlights Maness's takedown defense against Johnny Munoz (2 for 16) and Tony Gravely (1 for 6), and his ability to come back from adversity, as seen against Gravely where he broke his jaw and still won. Paul notes that Maness is moving down to 125, which could be an X-factor, as he may be stronger and have better takedown defense. He thinks Maness's striking is superior to Ulanbekov's, and that Ulanbekov's camp may underestimate Maness because Umar Nurmagomedov beat him easily. Paul locks in Maness as an underdog pick.

"lock me in for him as an underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tagir Ulanbekov

The MMA Guru picks Tagir Ulanbekov, criticizing Maness's performance against Umar Nurmagomedov where he accepted being on bottom. He notes Ulanbekov's quality grappling, evidenced by a split decision win over Allan Nascimento. He predicts Ulanbekov will control the fight, winning 29-28 by taking dominant positions in later rounds.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with tagirol and beckov... win this 29-28 as the rounds go on."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–26, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 20 10% 46 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 74 of 100 74% 128 of 161 3 of 4 75% 0 0 10:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 10 10% 17 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 18 of 21 85% 40 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 0 of 1 0% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 21 of 31 67% 32 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 9 11% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Maness 0 35 of 48 72% 56 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 2 of 20 10% 1 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 74 of 100 74% 60 of 79 10 of 15 4 of 6 17 of 33 0 of 0 57 of 67
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 10 10% 0 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 18 of 21 85% 17 of 17 0 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 14
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 26
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Maness 35 of 48 72% 25 of 35 7 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 21 0 of 0 23 of 27
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov but expects Nate Maness to earn respect. He acknowledges Maness is not an easy takedown and has solid submissions and power, but believes Umar's wrestling will ultimately prevail. He thinks Maness is much better than the odds suggest but still sees Umar wrestling his way to a win.

"i am still going to pick namga madoff here i don't think this is like the first round destruction that everybody thinks it's going to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by first-round submission. He is very confident, citing Umar's elite wrestling, grappling, and striking (question mark kick). He notes Maness's poor grappling defense (almost finished by Johnny Munoz) and that Umar has finished both Morozov and Kelleher via submission. He thinks once Umar gets a takedown, he will take Maness's back and submit him. He says the -1200 odds are not warranted but it's hard to make a case for Maness.

Umar wins by submission in round 1
"i like umar here i think he takes him down and once he does get him down i think it takes vanessa's back and i don't think he's surviving after that so give me uh umar manga met off first …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody agrees, noting Maness has been lucky in his UFC wins and has faced adversity. He thinks Umar's skills are superior everywhere and he will finish Maness. He also likes Umar inside the distance.

"i'm agreeing with you inside the distance nine to one's a huge price tag because everybody's darling this week and the inside the distance would definitely help you"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul is high on Umar, calling him amazing and a future problem for the division. He thinks Maness is not a real threat and that Umar will finish him. He recommends Umar inside the distance at -150, and also mentions Umar by TKO at +400-+500 as a value prop.

Umar inside the distance -150 at DraftKings; Umar by TKO +400-+500
"i think cousin umar is like amazing i think he's gonna be a big problem for guys in this division for years to come i don't think nate mines is any sort of real threat"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host picks Umar Nurmagomedov, trusting his skills and noting he makes low-level opponents look easy. He believes Umar will hurt Maness on the feet and then secure a submission in the second round. He criticizes Maness's last win over Tony Gravely as a fluke and doubts his grappling will be enough.

second round submission prediction
"i'm going to go with umar nurmagomedov winning this one"
WIN vs Tony Gravely
TKO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 1 31 of 63 49% 64 of 98 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Tony Gravely 1 36 of 68 52% 44 of 77 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 15 of 35 42% 45 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Tony Gravely 1 26 of 41 63% 32 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:53
2 Nate Maness 1 16 of 28 57% 19 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tony Gravely 0 10 of 27 37% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 31 of 63 49% 26 of 57 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 52 2 of 2 8 of 9
Tony Gravely 36 of 68 52% 18 of 43 8 of 11 10 of 14 25 of 55 8 of 10 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 15 of 35 42% 12 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tony Gravely 26 of 41 63% 11 of 23 6 of 8 9 of 10 17 of 32 6 of 6 3 of 3
2 Nate Maness 16 of 28 57% 14 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 8 of 9
Tony Gravely 10 of 27 37% 7 of 20 2 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.

Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (even money)
"i have tony gravely as my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.

first round TKO
"i'll say tony gravely wins by my first round tko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.

Maness by submission +1100 (sprinkle)
"i am going to go gravely i wouldn't fault you for taking nate my nest"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.

proceed with caution due to judging
"i got gravely man it's just these judges you gotta be careful so i'd say proceed with caution there"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tony Gravely

Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.

Tony Gravely inside the distance +235, Under 2.5 rounds +155
"I actually like gravley uh inside the distance here I do think that he'll go out there and get the finisher against a guy like nate maness"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tony Gravely

Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.

"i think gravely has made the improvements... i just think that he's starting to put it all together"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

underdog pick
"nate minnes being a better grappler than him and being a better grappler than geraldo defletas"
WIN vs Luke Sanders
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:29 · UFC on ESPN: Smith vs. Clark · Nov 28, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 55 of 112 49% 63 of 120 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:40
Luke Sanders 1 33 of 70 47% 38 of 75 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 30 of 61 49% 37 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Luke Sanders 0 13 of 30 43% 15 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Nate Maness 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Luke Sanders 1 20 of 40 50% 23 of 43 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 55 of 112 49% 40 of 90 7 of 9 8 of 13 47 of 102 8 of 10 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 33 of 70 47% 27 of 62 4 of 6 2 of 2 28 of 62 3 of 5 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 30 of 61 49% 19 of 43 5 of 7 6 of 11 25 of 55 5 of 6 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 13 of 30 43% 10 of 26 1 of 2 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 25 of 51 49% 21 of 47 2 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 47 3 of 4 0 of 0
Luke Sanders 20 of 40 50% 17 of 36 3 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 33 3 of 4 2 of 3
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 49 of 78 62% 129 of 168 2 of 16 12% 1 0 9:42
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 21 of 50 42% 158 of 194 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 19 of 38 50% 51 of 78 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:16
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 2 of 15 13% 12 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nate Maness 0 14 of 22 63% 33 of 42 1 of 7 14% 0 0 2:46
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 10 of 18 55% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
3 Nate Maness 0 16 of 18 88% 45 of 48 0 of 3 0% 1 0 3:40
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 0 9 of 17 52% 80 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 49 of 78 62% 18 of 34 25 of 36 6 of 8 16 of 40 20 of 21 13 of 17
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 21 of 50 42% 9 of 37 12 of 13 0 of 0 7 of 34 14 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 19 of 38 50% 13 of 25 3 of 8 3 of 5 5 of 20 1 of 1 13 of 17
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 2 of 15 13% 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nate Maness 14 of 22 63% 2 of 5 10 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 14 7 of 8 0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 10 of 18 55% 6 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Nate Maness 16 of 18 88% 3 of 4 12 of 13 1 of 1 4 of 6 12 of 12 0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr. 9 of 17 52% 1 of 8 8 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 7 9 of 10 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Nate Maness

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. The host did not mention Nate Maness vs Johnny Muñoz Jr. at all.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)

The host picks Ray Borg, stating that Borg is a much better grappler and that Maness has not faced high-level competition. He notes that Borg is only 26 and not on the decline, and that Maness will be hesitant to throw bombs due to Borg's takedown threat. He expects Borg to grind out a decision or possibly finish later in the fight. He also mentions the line is a steal and expects it to close higher.

"i'm taking ray borg and i think he could possibly even finish madness later in the fight but i will be on the safe side i'll take him to one by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Nate Maness

The host picks Ray Borg (Nate Maness's opponent) to win by unanimous decision. He praises Borg's youth (26), grappling, and recent activity, and notes that Maness hasn't fought anyone of Borg's caliber. He believes Borg will grind out a win with takedowns and control, and that Maness lacks the experience against high-level grapplers.

unanimous decision
"i think ray ball grinds this one out for a unanimous decision win getting the job done against nathan meneses"
Mateus Mendonça - Fight History
LOSS vs Jesus Aguilar
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jesus Aguilar 0 19 of 36 52% 38 of 62 1 of 4 25% 1 1 4:51
Mateus Mendonça 0 18 of 40 45% 43 of 90 4 of 8 50% 1 0 8:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jesus Aguilar 0 7 of 11 63% 14 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:51
Mateus Mendonça 0 1 of 4 25% 7 of 12 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:48
2 Jesus Aguilar 0 6 of 14 42% 17 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:38
Mateus Mendonça 0 13 of 27 48% 16 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:56
3 Jesus Aguilar 0 6 of 11 54% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:22
Mateus Mendonça 0 4 of 9 44% 20 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jesus Aguilar 19 of 36 52% 10 of 24 4 of 4 5 of 8 11 of 21 4 of 5 4 of 10
Mateus Mendonça 18 of 40 45% 15 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 2 9 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jesus Aguilar 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 4 2 of 4
Mateus Mendonça 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jesus Aguilar 6 of 14 42% 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 6
Mateus Mendonça 13 of 27 48% 12 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 2 of 2 7 of 15
3 Jesus Aguilar 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateus Mendonça 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesus Santos Aguilar vs. Mateus Mendonca
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mendonca (-162), Aguilar (+136)

Round 1
The prelims roll on with the flyweights again, with Tachi Palace Fights vet Aguilar (9-2, 1-1 UFC) aiming to make it two in a row at the expense of the skidding Mendonca (10-2, 0-2 UFC). The Chute Boxe Diego Lima product made it to the UFC courtesy of 10 straight wins, only to run into brick walls of Javid Basharat and Nathan Maness to hand him a pair of losses. The two men with finish rates of 70% or above come together and touch gloves as referee Fernando Salas watches on, and they introduce themselves to one another with kicks. Aguilar kicks low, Mendonca kicks the body and presses all the way forward to scoop Aguilar off his feet. Aguilar fights back to his feet, and he resists a throw and pushes his foe against the fence to knee the thigh a few times. The pace slows to a crawl as Mendonca eventually tries to toss Aguilar to the mat, but he cannot keep him there for more than a second. Aguilar keeps grinding, and Mendonca sells out for a body lock takedown and an outside trip that succeeds in putting Aguilar down. Mendonca shifts quickly to side control, where he resides on top until Aguilar reverses him successful and starts bashing on top. Mendonca briefly threatens with a high guard, and Aguilar shakes out of it and scores some ground strikes while stacking Mendonca up. Mendonca hunts for a triangle choke, and Aguilar slams his way out of it at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar

Round 2
The second round opens tentatively, with both men pawing at one another from a safe range. Mendonca suddenly crashes the pocket and pursues a takedown, where he leverages Aguilar down to the mat. After some control time, Mendonca loses top position and Aguilar slings him down. The two scramble wildly, and Mendonca manages to take the back and start hunting for the neck. Aguilar turns to put his back against the fence, and Mendonca clings to him and bowls Aguilar over to move to half guard. The Brazilian practically jumps into full mount, and he unleashes a fury of right hands as Salas watches closely. Aguilar turns to his side and nearly gets pounded out, but he ends up surviving the assault and defend himself intelligently enough all while the crowd implores him to keep fighting. Aguilar jumps back to his feet with sheer force of will, and Mendonca tries to snatch up a guillotine choke. Aguilar pulls out of it, and he starts slugging. Aguilar hurts Mendonca in an exchange, and he shoots for a takedown instead of taking advantage of the damage. Aguilar relocates himself into full mount, and he starts slashing down with elbows. Aguilar postures up and smacks Mendonca around with strikes, and lowers himself down so as to not create openings to escape. Aguilar looks for more offense, and Mendonca use the moment to fight his way back to his feet. Mendonca shoots in from too far away, and Aguilar shoves him over and starts landing punches all while Mendonca elevates him. The frantic round ends with Aguilar in the air getting flipped over by his opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aguilar

Round 3
Aguilar swings for the bleachers to start off the round, and as Mendonca counters with a kick, Aguilar sprints towards him and knocks him over. On the way down, the Mexican snatches up a guillotine choke, and he tries to lock it down with full mount. By the skin of his teeth, Mendonca survives the submission and pushes Aguilar over, and he slides on top to move to half guard. Mendonca smothers from top control, opening up every so often to land a short right hand. Aguilar looks to hip escape or at least scoot himself to the fence, and Mendonca stifles him until Salas stands them up. Aguilar thanks the referee by going right to offense, swinging hard and stinging Mendonca. Mendonca throws back, and Aguilar answers with a level change. Mendonca uses the body lock to turn Aguilar around and chuck him to the mat like a basket of dirty laundry. A wild scramble ensues, and both men briefly take top position, until Mendonca winds up getting back control. Aguilar has one arm held tightly by his opponent, allowing Mendonca to drill him with punches from the free hand on the other side. Mendonca wraps up the body triangle and aims for the neck with a choke, and Aguilar hand-fights to stop the choke attempt. Mendonca allows Aguilar to turn so he can shift to full mount, but before he can rain down shots, Aguilar turns over. Mendonca locks down an unorthodox triangle choke as Aguilar does this, but time expires before anything comes of it. Based on previous tallies so far tonight, scorecards could be all over the map here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mendonca (29-28 Aguilar)

The Official Result
Jesus Aguilar def. Mateus Mendonca via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Angelo picks Mendonça, agreeing with the sportsbooks. He notes the wide variance between public and bookmaker opinion and sides with the books. He believes Mendonça is the more dangerous fighter on the feet and on the ground.

"I actually am going to agree with the sports books here I think mandanka is the more dangerous fighter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Big Brady picks Jesus Aguilar to win by third-round submission, but with low confidence as he has been flipping on this fight. He notes Aguilar has a 62-inch reach which is a concern, but he is a great grappler with decent wrestling. He criticizes Mendonça's poor fight IQ and submission-over-position style, and mentions that Mendonça is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, while Aguilar has been there for six weeks. He expects the fight to hit the mat where Aguilar can win grappling exchanges.

Aguilar wins by submission in round 3
"I'm going to take agular here with not a ton of confidence like I said I've been flipping back and forth on this fight but give me agular to win this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Cody picks Aguilar, calling Mendonça a 'goof' and questioning why he's a favorite. He notes Aguilar has cardio for days, a decent submission game, and has finished fights late. He thinks if Mendonça doesn't catch him early, Aguilar will tire him out and put a beating on him. He sees it as a good live betting opportunity.

"agalar for me what about you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

The host is leaning towards Aguilar, believing his power punching style will keep Mendonça on the back foot. He thinks Aguilar is durable enough to handle Mendonça's technical striking and will push the pace to exploit Mendonça's cardio issues. He expects Aguilar to either grind with wrestling or find a finish in the second or third round.

Finish in second or third round
"I'm leaning the agular side here as I believe his power punching style could keep mandona on his back foot and I think agar is durable enough to to deal with the technical striking advantage that mosa has"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jesus Aguilar

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Aguilar. He notes Mendonça looked lost in his last fight against Nate Maness, with a terrible game plan. Aguilar has cardio and submissions, and Mendonça's weight cut to 125 may be an issue. He thinks Aguilar can survive the initial onslaught and take over.

"I'll take the short price here and make him Underdog number three for the card"
LOSS vs Nate Maness
TKO (punches) R1 4:40 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nate Maness 0 29 of 35 82% 103 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Mateus Mendonça 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nate Maness 29 of 35 82% 26 of 31 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 3 26 of 30
Mateus Mendonça 3 of 7 42% 0 of 3 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.

Waiting for +3.5 spread prop on Nate Maness
"I'm going to pick mandanka there because he is so dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.

"I'll take mandon to win this fight by decision but I think it's going to be a lot closer than this line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.

"I understand why he's the favorite I will be picking him but um I'm a little bit nervous about it as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.

wishes for better price (e.g., -185)
"I think Matteo's McDonald's is going to make a statement here and show that he is an emerging Prospect in the flyweight division"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Mateus Mendonça

Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.

Maness decision +550 (small bet)
"I'm going to predict mandona round 1 KO but I actually like Maness if you're GNA have a bet overall"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.

third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Nate Maness here and I think he actually finds a finish I'm going to call it a third round TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.

"I'm kind of having a better look at this one from a live betting spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.

"I'm going to go with mendonsa I think he has the finishing potential advantage"
LOSS vs Javid Basharat
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Javid Basharat 0 95 of 130 73% 125 of 164 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:19
Mateus Mendonça 0 29 of 88 32% 70 of 133 2 of 11 18% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Javid Basharat 0 32 of 51 62% 35 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:21
Mateus Mendonça 0 12 of 43 27% 14 of 45 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:09
2 Javid Basharat 0 35 of 45 77% 53 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:28
Mateus Mendonça 0 7 of 24 29% 20 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:44
3 Javid Basharat 0 28 of 34 82% 37 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:30
Mateus Mendonça 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Javid Basharat 95 of 130 73% 62 of 93 25 of 28 8 of 9 60 of 90 10 of 14 25 of 26
Mateus Mendonça 29 of 88 32% 21 of 72 3 of 6 5 of 10 25 of 83 2 of 2 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Javid Basharat 32 of 51 62% 18 of 36 9 of 10 5 of 5 27 of 43 3 of 6 2 of 2
Mateus Mendonça 12 of 43 27% 8 of 35 1 of 2 3 of 6 11 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Javid Basharat 35 of 45 77% 27 of 35 7 of 8 1 of 2 14 of 23 5 of 6 16 of 16
Mateus Mendonça 7 of 24 29% 5 of 20 0 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 2
3 Javid Basharat 28 of 34 82% 17 of 22 9 of 10 2 of 2 19 of 24 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mateus Mendonça 10 of 21 47% 8 of 17 2 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Angelo is very confident in Basharat, having placed a 3-unit bet at -309. He praises Basharat's well-rounded game, striking defense, and grappling. He believes Mendonça's competition is weak and his style is not suited for MMA. He expects Basharat to win comfortably.

3 units moneyline at -309
"I love javeed here I've had a three unit money line bet on the board for him for a while"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat confidently, praising his well-rounded skills and impressive win over Tony Gravely. He notes that Basharat outwrestled Gravely, a top wrestler, and has good striking, power, and cardio. He thinks Mendonça is talented but too inexperienced for this step up, and that Basharat will pull away as the fight goes on. He predicts a decision win for Basharat, though Mendonça may have early moments.

Basharat by decision
"give me Javi Bashar out to win I'll take Javi basharat to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Cody picks Basharat but is less confident, noting Mendonça's potential and youth. He sees Basharat winning by decision and likes the 'Basharat by decision' prop at +150. He acknowledges Mendonça could be live if he lands a front kick.

Basharat by decision at +150 considered
"I'll pick them for the purposes of this show... maybe I'll get to Bachelorette by decision which I see out there for like plus 150 right now don't mind that"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Jacob picks Mendonça despite acknowledging Basharat is the better fighter. He believes Mendonça's aggression and power could overwhelm Basharat early. He notes Basharat's low guard and vulnerability to pressure. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at inside the distance props.

May bet inside the distance
"I'm gonna pick him ... something inside the distance we'll see what the odds are"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Javid Basharat

Paul is confident in Basharat, citing his wrestling, cardio, and experience against tougher opponents (Trevin Jones, Tony Gravely). He sees Mendonça as unproven and limited, and expects Basharat to win wherever the fight goes. He considers Basharat by decision at +150.

Basharat by decision at +150 considered
"I think Javi bashara is probably play of the week right minus 350"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Angelo picks Mateus Mendonça because he is a dangerous Shooter Box fighter with solid striking and BJJ, and he is always aggressive. He notes that Mendonça is hittable but durable, and that Maness could win with a wrestle-heavy game plan. However, he leans toward Mendonça's danger factor. He is not betting the favorite price but is waiting for prop bets like a +3.5 spread on Maness.

Waiting for +3.5 spread prop on Nate Maness
"I'm going to pick mandanka there because he is so dangerous"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Big Brady picks Mateus Mendonça but is hesitant, as he has consistently lost money betting against Nate Maness in the past. He criticizes Maness's volume and grappling holes, and notes that Maness's weight cut to flyweight is concerning. He believes Mendonça will win by decision but thinks the fight will be closer than the current line suggests. He also wants to see the weigh-ins before finalizing his confidence.

"I'll take mandon to win this fight by decision but I think it's going to be a lot closer than this line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Cody picks Mendonça but is hesitant, noting that Maness has shown grappling deficiencies and Mendonça is a bigger, stronger fighter with power. He acknowledges that Mendonça is coming off a loss and the line may be an overcorrection, but believes his wrestling and size should prevail.

"I understand why he's the favorite I will be picking him but um I'm a little bit nervous about it as well"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Daniel Levi picks Mateus Mendonça, arguing that Nate Maness has no business at 125 pounds and will be drained by the weight cut. He believes Mendonça is a legitimate prospect who belongs in the weight class, with better explosiveness and power. He expects Mendonça to make a statement, though he wishes the price were better.

wishes for better price (e.g., -185)
"I think Matteo's McDonald's is going to make a statement here and show that he is an emerging Prospect in the flyweight division"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Mateus Mendonça

Lucrative James predicts Mendonça wins by first-round knockout, but he is not confident due to many variables. He notes Maness has been finished in both flyweight fights and Mendonça has cardio concerns at 125. He placed a small bet on Maness decision at +550 as a fun play, but his official pick is Mendonça round 1 KO.

Maness decision +550 (small bet)
"I'm going to predict mandona round 1 KO but I actually like Maness if you're GNA have a bet overall"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Nate Maness

Maness is the better fighter over 15 minutes with superior boxing and power. He should be able to stuff early takedowns and avoid Mendonça's early power. As the fight goes on, Maness will take over and likely find a late finish. The plus money on Maness is a steal given his skills and Mendonça's questionable durability. I predict a third-round TKO.

third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Nate Maness here and I think he actually finds a finish I'm going to call it a third round TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

Paul leans toward Mendonça, noting his size and power advantage. He mentions that Maness has been taken down and controlled in recent fights. However, he is not fully confident and suggests live betting Maness if he survives the first round.

"I'm kind of having a better look at this one from a live betting spot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateus Mendonça

The MMA Guru picks Mateus Mendonça over Nate Maness. He notes Maness had a poor showing at flyweight and was finished, and that Maness nearly got finished by Tony Gravely before coming back. He is impressed by Mendonça's performance against Javid Basharat, a top prospect. He believes Mendonça has a finishing advantage and criticizes Maness for conceding bottom position and making rookie mistakes like jumping into a guillotine.

"I'm going to go with mendonsa I think he has the finishing potential advantage"