Career Averages - King Green
Career Averages - Grant Dawson
King Green
Grant Dawson
King Green - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 57 of 87 | 65% | 64 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 57 of 87 | 65% | 44 of 69 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 35 of 46 |
| Jeremy Stephens | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-340), Stephens (+270)
Round 1
They may have nothing in common, but Green (34-17-1, 1 NC; 15-12-1, 1 NC UFC) and Stephens (29-22, 1 NC; 15-19, 1 NC UFC) are both grizzled, battle-tested veterans—not the type who would be saving Private Ryan, mind you, but gladiators who have faced a veritable who’s who in the sport over the years. Both men celebrate exactly 15 wins inside of the Octagon, and they would very much like one more. Referee Gary Copeland will supervise the proceedings of this catchweight affair, one outside of standard weight classes because Stephens biffed weight by four pounds. He gives up 30% of his purse to Green but no glove touch.
Green’s hands are down the moment the fight begins, and he already is chattering at Stephens trying to encourage him to come in at him. Green points at Stephens after Stephens whiffs. He sneaks in a right hand, and he circles to the side towards Stephens’ power side. Green takes a punch off the forehead and pauses, but it does not take long for him to get going again. Stephens misses by a mile with a haymaker, and Green is comfortable hanging out in boxing range. Stephens kicks his for in the front leg, and Green kicks him in the side and gets clinched. Stephens drills Green with a right hand on the break, and Green signals that it did not land flush. Green stabs a kick to the liver, and he pump-fakes his way in to draw reactions. Green staggers Stephens with a left hand, and he knows it and rifles off three more fists in a hurry. Green winds up with a body kick, but it smashes into Stephens’ groin. Stephens grimaces and Copeland calls time. Stephens looks to work out the pain, and Green immediately goes to apologize. Copeland issues a hard warning to Green, and Stephens is good to go after about 80 seconds. Green again apologizes, and Stephens is good with it as they resume. Stephens stalks Green down, and Green’s hands remain down while he is chirping at him. Green lands a right hand and a kick to the body, and he points at Stephens’ stomach and leaps at him to hit a quick double and put Stephens on his back.
Green starts bombing on Stephens when on top, unleashing a long stream of punches and elbows while sitting on his leg in a quasi-half guard. Green keeps thumping up Stephens with his free left hand, and Stephens doubles up his wrist control on Green’s left arm for a straight armlock or kimura. He twists it to become a kimura to go for a sweep, and Green fights it off and steps into mount to batter Stephens with ground-and-pound.
Green transitions into a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye when Stephens turns, and he rolls to the back to lock it down. Green only has one hook in as he wrenches on the submission, but it is so complete that he does not need the other. Stephens briefly considers going out on his shield but that would be silly. Stephens gives up
, and it is not so much a train that ran him over as it is the Polar Express, with this one-sided shellacking ending with a mean choke. Falling short again, Stephens removes his gloves and may have left him in the center of the Octagon to say farewell to the sport. It is hard to tell with the promotion wholly focused on the triumphant Green.
The Official Result
King Green def. Jeremy Stephens R1 4:20 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks King Green, noting he is the better overall fighter and has shown wrestling in his last fight. He acknowledges concerns about the judges not liking his style and that Jeremy Stephens is always dangerous, but believes Green wins the majority of the time.
Angelo picks King Green, stating he is the better striker and can shoot takedowns if needed. He notes Green's volume and defense, and that Stephens is tough but can be taken down. He is surprised by the 3-to-1 odds and thinks they are too wide for a 39-year-old. He says he will probably leave the bet alone.
Big Brady picks King Green, though he admits he can't lay the -325 odds. He notes Green has looked good recently, while Stephens hasn't won in years and looks done. Brady expects Green to outpoint Stephens, mixing in wrestling if needed, and win a decision. He acknowledges Stephens could knock Green out, but considers that a hot take.
Cody picks Green, citing his superior skills and Stephens' decline. He notes Green's volume and movement, and thinks Stephens is past his prime and not a threat. Cody expects Green to win by decision or submission, but is wary of the minus 400 price.
Connor picks Green, agreeing with Zane. He notes Green is slicker on the feet with better footwork, though his reaction times have slowed. Connor points out that Stephens' recent KO losses are to real sluggers, and Green is not that. He expects Green to make Stephens chase and overthrow, and use takedowns to slow him down.
Daniel picks Green, citing his slick striking, speed, and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Stephens' knockout power but believes Green is too slick and will avoid getting caught. Daniel expects Green to win via output or submission.
The host passes on this fight. He favors Green but considers the odds too wide (1.30). He notes Green's inconsistency and poor fight IQ, and Stephens' power. He mentions the +3.5 fight spread on Stephens as interesting but decides to keep money safe.
Predicted method: Decision. Green is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (6.38 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to Stephens, who is 38 and has lost four straight. Stephens has power but is hittable (3.14 SApM) and has poor takedown defense (62%). Green's 72% takedown defense should keep the fight standing, where he can outwork Stephens with combinations and movement. Stephens' only path is an early KO, but Green's durability and pace should carry him to a clear decision or late stoppage.
Jacob is confident in King Green, citing that Jeremy Stephens is 1-8 in his last nine fights and hasn't had a knockout since 2018. He believes Green's wrestling and smarter fighting style will be too much, and that Stephens looked clueless on the ground against Mason Jones.
Lucrative James confidently picks King Green because he sees Jeremy Stephens as a knockout-or-bust fighter who is 1-8 in his last nine MMA fights. He believes Green's boxing and volume will overwhelm Stephens, who lacks the cardio and durability to win a decision. He predicts Green wins by decision, noting Stephens' toughness but inability to keep up with Green's pace.
The host picks Green, citing his striking clinic and ability to outbox Stephens. He notes that Stephens lost a boxing match to Chris Avila, which indicates Green should dominate on the feet. He expects Green to win by decision, though he acknowledges Stephens' power and chin. He may look at the decision prop.
Paul picks Green, citing his technical striking and Stephens' lack of recent success. He thinks Green's volume and movement will overwhelm Stephens, who is fighting for a payday. Paul expects Green to win by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green, expecting him to pick apart Jeremy Stephens with boxing. He notes Green's recent wins over Daniel Zellhuber and close fight with Fiziev. He thinks Stephens is past his prime and Green will mix in takedowns. He predicts a decision win, though he initially says TKO then corrects to decision.
Zane picks Green confidently, citing his speed, length, and footwork advantage over the older Stephens. He notes Stephens has lost his kicking and wrestling, and is no longer a knockout artist. Zane believes Green can use reactive takedowns like against Zell Hoover to neutralize Stephens. He sees it as a slow-down version of Green's win over Nasrud Hockbrost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 17 of 78 | 21% | 17 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 1 | 86 of 134 | 64% | 100 of 148 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 0 | 6 of 32 | 18% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| King Green | 1 | 45 of 70 | 64% | 59 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Zellhuber | 17 of 78 | 21% | 7 of 59 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 17 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 86 of 134 | 64% | 39 of 72 | 21 of 29 | 26 of 33 | 71 of 119 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Zellhuber | 11 of 46 | 23% | 3 of 32 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 41 of 64 | 64% | 10 of 23 | 15 of 19 | 16 of 22 | 36 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Zellhuber | 6 of 32 | 18% | 4 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 45 of 70 | 64% | 29 of 49 | 6 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zellhuber (-500); Green (+375)
Round 1
“Golden Boy” Zellhuber (15-3, 3-3 UFC) has appeared a bit gold-plated as of late with two straight losses on his ledger. He will be 13 years the younger of grizzled veteran Green (33-17-1, 1 NC; 14-12-1, 1 NC UFC), who never shies away from a firefight. Before they bang it out, referee Herb Dean clocks them in and the lightweights do not tap gloves together as Green has his mean mug in full display.
Green, hands down by his side as is his custom, swats away Zellhuber’s reaching lead hand a few times. Green steps back as Zellhuber lunges with an overhand right, and the Mexican stumbles, Green catches him, resets and times a takedown to put the two on the mat. Zellhuber spins around as the two wind back up on their feet, where Green starts chattering at him. Zellhuber backs Green to the fence but walks into a straight left hand, and Green follows with a one-two before Zellhuber can get to him. Zellhuber kicks his lead leg, and Green says, “please sir, may I have another.” We’re paraphrasing, but you get the gist. Green keeps goading Zellhuber on, and Zellhuber sells out for a few swings and ends up getting taken down again. Zellhuber once more turns about to escape the ground game and works back to his feet, and once more Green pounds him in the face with a power jab.
Green’s alternating stances and awkward footwork make Zellhuber struggle, and when he lets off offense, he lands it fairly often. Zellhuber is not sure how to proceed, winging a huge right hand in hopes of knocking Green out with one blow, but he does not land it. Green dings him with two punches and slips the counters, brushing off his shoulder mockingly. Zellhuber swings at him, and Green retreats and laughs at him. Zellhuber keeps giving chase, walking into a barrage of punches from “King” and landing some of his own. Green shakes his head and no-sells anything, signaling that nothing has landed flush on him, and he suddenly spins with a back kick that bangs into the shoulder. Green reaches out and slaps the younger man in the face, and Zellhuber answers by kicking him in the face. Zellhuber rips a left to the body, and Green doubles over and has to regain his poker face. Green gets back into his element, grooving back and forth and jamming Zellhuber up with short punches and a hard low kick. He stands before a motionless Zellhuber until the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Green
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Green
Round 2
Zellhuber starts off the round aggressively, and Green’s head movement and footwork protect him from anything overtly harmful. Green shrugs off the big swings and uses Zellhuber’s offense against him, tackling the Mexican to the floor. Zellhuber wraps up his right leg around Green’s neck to set up an extremely rare and fairly new buggy choke, and Dean checks on Green a few times to make sure he’s still fine. Green gives a thumbs-up and briefly frees his neck from the clutch of Zellhuber’s right arm cinched with his right leg—look it up, because it’s not easy to describe setting up—but Zellhuber commits to it again. Green slowly, methodically wriggles his neck out of danger, and he pops back to his feet. Zellhuber hurries back after him, and Green wants to take him back down.
Zellhuber stops the effort this time, so Green pushes out front kicks and slugs his man in the face with a hard right hand. Green laughs off what flies his way and fires back heavy left hands, and he mixes in obnoxious kicks to the front leg that partially hyperextend the lead knee. Zellhuber has a left hand skim the top of Green’s head, and Green shakes his head and keeps doing his thing. Green does not swing for the fences with his strikes, and Zellhuber’s volume is low while he still tries to figure out a way in. Green hits any target that is open, including the temple, where he clubs Zellhuber and wobbles him. Zellhuber stumbles back on baby der legs, but he manages to get his footing while Green largely showboats in front of him.
Green wings two hooks that bounce off the nose that is now leaking, and he nails “Golden Boy” with a flush salvo of fiery fists. Zellhuber goes out and is snapped back online, and he hits the ground and is in a bad way. Green does not let him off the hook and proceeds to violently batter him on the sides of the head. As “King” continues his final bombardment, Dean saves the Mexican fighter from his own toughness and waves the fight off.
As if he knew he was going to do that the whole time, Green walks off, cool as a cucumber, and has words with the closest camera. At the age of 39, “King” Green can still put on performances like that, dropping Zellhuber’s UFC record below .500 with a vintage knockout.
The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Daniel Zellhuber R2 4:55 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo hesitantly picks Daniel Zellhuber despite his recent poor performance against Michael Johnson. He reasons that Zellhuber cannot possibly 'do nothing' two fights in a row, especially in Mexico. He also notes that King Green (Bobby Green) sometimes is not serious enough and may not score well with Mexican judges. He acknowledges the risk but believes Zellhuber's Mexican spirit and Green's showboating could lead to a Zellhuber win.
Big Brady picks Daniel Zellhuber but with strong hesitation, calling him the biggest 'ball dropper' in the UFC after losing as a heavy favorite twice. He notes Zellhuber should win against King Green, who struggled against Lance Gibson Jr., but is wary of another poor performance. He predicts a second-round knockout if Zellhuber shows up.
Cody strongly fades Zellhuber at -500, pointing out his recent losses and lack of finishing ability. He believes Green's pressure and durability will cause problems, and that Zellhuber's jab won't be enough. He recommends betting Green or passing.
Connor agrees with Zane, but notes that Zellhuber could still lose if he has a slow start and lets Green get comfortable. He points out that Green is crafty and can throw off any fighter with his unorthodox style. However, Connor believes Green's inability to handle fast range strikers and his age make Zellhuber the clear pick.
Daniel picks Daniel Zellhuber, praising his size, reach, sharp hands, and takedown defense. He notes Zellhuber's chin and recovery, and believes he will outrange Prado and avoid ground-and-pound. He sees Zellhuber as a future top-15 fighter, while Prado is still unproven at this level.
The host is very confident in Zellhuber, calling him the safest bet on the card. He cites Zellhuber's youth (26 vs 39), massive reach advantage (6 inches), home advantage in Mexico City, and Green's lack of finishing ability. Green is a volume striker who is old and smaller, and will likely be outworked. The host plans to parlay Zellhuber with Moreno.
James expects Zellhuber to rebound from his loss to Michael Johnson, citing Green's less dangerous boxing style. He believes Zellhuber's kicks, durability, and aggression will overwhelm Green, leading to a finish. James predicts Zellhuber wins inside the distance.
The host picks Daniel Zellhuber but is hesitant due to the -500 price and Zellhuber's recent losses. He notes Zellhuber's height and reach advantages and believes he can land the better strikes. However, he warns that Green is an educated striker and that Zellhuber's striking defense is suspect. He prefers the KO prop over the moneyline.
Paul is leaning towards Green at +375, citing Zellhuber's inconsistency and lack of power. He notes Green's forward pressure and durability, and believes the price is too high on Zellhuber. He hasn't bet yet but is close to clicking Green.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Zellhuber, citing Bobby Green's struggles against taller opponents and his habit of fighting with his hands down. He notes that Green had trouble with Lance Gibson Jr. and was destroyed by Jalin Turner. He predicts Zellhuber will TKO Green, as Green is open to shots and Zellhuber is a big favorite.
Zane picks Zellhuber because Bobby Green is clearly past his prime at 39 and has lost his speed and defensive instincts. He notes that Green's style relies on head movement and baiting, which no longer works against younger fighters. Zellhuber has problems with discipline and can lose rounds, but Green's decline is too severe to pick him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 65 of 141 | 46% | 74 of 150 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 35 of 77 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 12 of 35 | 34% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 18 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | King Green | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 33 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Lance Gibson | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 65 of 141 | 46% | 25 of 77 | 24 of 40 | 16 of 24 | 56 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 11 |
| Lance Gibson | 30 of 72 | 41% | 9 of 39 | 8 of 14 | 13 of 19 | 27 of 66 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 22 of 51 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 12 of 35 | 34% | 4 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 9 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 15 of 37 | 40% | 5 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lance Gibson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 4 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | King Green | 28 of 53 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 13 of 18 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 |
| Lance Gibson | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-210); Gibson Jr. (+170)
Round 1
In an unexpected catchweight delight, “King” Green (32-17-1, 1 NC; 13-12-1, 1 NC UFC) will sneak in his second fight of 2025 right before the buzzer. He takes this match at a 160-pound catchweight likely due to it being put together about a week ago. Matching up in the cage will be Bellator expat Gibson Jr. (9-1, 0-0 UFC)—for the purposes of this play-by-play, his “junior” name suffix will be omitted—who will be competing for the first time in over a year. It should be noted that Gibson now completes the third father-son duo to both compete in the Octagon, joining Randy and Ryan Couture as well as Gilbert and Elijah Smith. Accompanying the athletes in the Octagon will be referee Mark Smith, who watches on as the two elect not to touch gloves.
Green walks the newcomer down flexing his pectorals, hands down by his hips. Gibson lands first with a thudding calf kick, and Green stares at him like a disappointed father. Gibson fires off kicks at his opponent, and Green showboats and wipes off his shoulder to suggest nothing landed. Green gets off a body kick, and Gibson has another high kick blocked in the nick of time. Green stays evasive and starts motioning like he is dribbling a basketball and otherwise goofing around in the midst of a fist fight. This makes Gibson back off, so Green points at the ground and says, “come here!” Gibson obliges, rushing at him for a possible clinch, but Green slides to the side to stay in striking range. The American jabs the body with his foot, and he stomp kicks at the knee to hyperextend Gibson’s lead leg.
Green’s hands remain as low as they can go, and he connects with a body kick and is well out of range before Gibson can get him back with anything but his own kick to the ribs. Green slips to score a right hand, and Gibson cracks him with a left that stands Green up. Green tries to play it off like he is fine, and Gibson picks up on the tell and charges him. Green shakes it off and starts getting in Gibson’s head again, chattering at him and telling him to come at him. Green walks Gibson around the cage, and Gibson pitches a kick at him that Green catches. Green slips in a short left hand and splits the guard with a front kick, and he has Gibson flustered with his approach. Green ducks down to land a right hand, and Gibson buzzes him behind the ear. Green tells to keep throwing with him, and Gibson looks for knees instead and a possible clinch. Green shakes his head, dodges a few punches and salutes. The strange round ends, and scores could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green
Round 2
Green wades out of his corner fearlessly, hands characteristically by his hips, and he uses head movement and footwork to avoid the early offense coming his direction. He gets in close to force Gibson off-balance from a front kick, and Green’s overhand right knocks Gibson to the floor. Gibson leaps back up and hurls a left hand at him, Green dodges and goes “woo,” and he proceeds to mess with Gibson while tossing one-twos at him. Gibson tosses out a low kick, and Green’s front kick response ricochets off the cup. Smith calls time, and Green starts clapping and saying “we gotta get this thing going” as if to hurry Gibson back to combat. The Canadian keeps ignoring him, so Green apologizes to Gibson’s father for the accidental foul. Smith warns Green to avoid kicking the low body, because it is the second kick he has gotten away with there. Gibson marches back and forth adjusting his cup, and Green is hanging out waiting for the recovery time to elapse and talking to anyone without earshot who bothers listening. The roughly two-minute break concludes with a clap of hands from the two fighters. When they resume, Green aims a side kick to the chest, and he wraps a kick around the guard. Gibson rushes him and throws a high kick to open up a level change, and he puts “King” on the floor and advances to side control in a hurry. Gibson clings with his right arm around the back of Green’s head, until Green scrambles to get back to his feet. Gibson holds him from behind in hopes of a mat return.
Gibson knees him in the chin and stomps at his toes, staying up close in the clinch to not give Green any space. Green nearly grabs the fence a few times, and Gibson drops down for a single. Green recovers his footing and pushes off Gibson’s face, and he mean mugs him while walking him down. A jab from Gibson opens a tiny cut on Green’s right cheek, one he ignores as he lumbers forward pitching long punches at him. Gibson sits down on a strong right hand, and Green partially rolls with it and offers back a body kick while Gibson is strafing to the side. They clash low kicks, and Green scores a left hand and points at his foe. Gibson throws back only to be well out of range, while Green can get to him with a long front kick to the sternum. Green clips his man with two crisp punches, and he looks for a hook third but is caught on the way in with a solid inside low kick that stumbles him. Green gathers his thoughts and puts on his poker face to start bombing Gibson with a barrage of punches. Gibson barely misses a spin right before the bell, and Green wipes his brow in a sign of relief that he did not get tagged with it. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gibson
Round 3
Like the previous rounds, Green is not remotely concerned about what comes his direction, even though Gibson landed flush on him a few times towards the end of the round. Gibson keeps his back to the fence, and Green further drives him back with a push kick to the solar plexus. Green aims a low kick and misses on his other, flashier kicks. Gibson reaches out with his own kick, and Green no-sells it. Green lands a couple more front kicks while Gibson is still processing, and he blocks a high kick and points to his arm as if to tell someone watching—like a judge—that it hit him on the arm. Green’s trash talk starts to get louder, and he starts to get a bit more amped up. Gibson stays on his bike, timing a kick from Green to shoot for a takedown. He takes Green to his seat, but Green pushes off and scampers back up within seconds.
Green goes for a right to the ribs, and he scores another right over the top in rapid succession. Gibson’s offense is limited to single strikes, like a huge right hand that Green barely dodges in time. Green strings together a number of punches ending with a solid left, and he starts to walk Gibson down doing the typical Diaz brother strut. Gibson narrowly avoids a one-two, but a second lands on his nose. He has a kick caught, and Green throws him to the wall and then surprises the Canadian by completing a sudden takedown. Green moves himself to north-south position and starts unleashing heavy right hands to the body, and Gibson is warned repeatedly for hooking his toes in the fence links. Smith has to slap at them a few times, all while Green is hammering “Fearless” with concussive hammerfists. The oddball fight ends with Green letting Gibson have it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Green (30-27 Green)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Green (29-28 Green)
The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Lance Gibson Jr. via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Cody picks Green, citing his experience and superior striking. He notes Gibson's lack of activity and short notice, and expects Green to keep the fight standing and outwork Gibson as he fades in later rounds. He sees a live betting opportunity.
Paul also picks Green, emphasizing the step down in competition for Green. He thinks Gibson's grappling threat is neutralized by Green's takedown defense and that Green's striking will be too much. He recommends waiting for a better price.
Angelo sees Ferreira as more dangerous and durable at this point, with more ways to win. He notes Green is a cleaner striker but Ferreira has power and BJJ. He is surprised Ferreira is almost a 2-to-1 favorite, as the fight feels closer on paper. He picks Ferreira but is not sure what to do with betting, possibly looking at the over 1.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Diego Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He is very worried about King Green's decline, citing the brutal Jalin Turner stoppage, his age (38), and poor recent performances. He notes Green has taken a lot of damage and doesn't look the same. In contrast, Ferreira is older but has less tread on the tires, barely fights, and still performs at a high level. He mentions Ferreira's power, citing knockouts of Michael Johnson and Mateusz Rębecki, and thinks he can finish Green by any method.
The Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira to beat Bobby Green, citing Ferreira's underrated skills and power. He believes Green is prone to getting knocked out, especially in big spots, and that Ferreira can finish him. The Guru notes Ferreira's close split decision with Beneil Dariush and his knockout of Michael Johnson. He predicts Green will have a decent first round but then get caught in the second or third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Maurício Ruffy | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-470), Green (+360)
Round 1
Two 155-pound strikers will light up the T-Mobile Arena to open up the main card. Green (31-16-1, 1 NC; 13-11-1, 1 NC UFC) has seen better days but is still dangerous even at the age of 38, but he will have to mind his P’s and Q’s against the man 10 years his younger in Ruffy (11-1, 2-0 UFC). Before the frenetic action, referee Chris Tognoni makes sure to keep things official and starts the fight. Ruffy offers a glove, but Green would rather just fight. Green backs himself intentionally to the wall, hands low, ready to counter. Ruffy is composed rather than a marauder, and he blocks a push kick when standing in front of his opponent. Ruffy is keeping Green confused with his rangy punches and movement, and this results in a stalemate and stretches of inactivity. When Green kicks low, Ruffy rings his bell with a straight right hand. Green bounces off the wall and gives a right hand back, but it has far less mustard on it than the one that shook him up. Green surges forward with a left high and a right to the ribs, and chants for “Let’s Go Ruffy” start spreading. The Brazilian absorbs all of this energy from the audience and channels it like a Spirit Bomb, only instead of into his hand, he puts it into his right foot. A picture-perfect spin from Ruffy delivers the wheel kick square into the side of Green’s head, and Green is immediately unconscious and slumps face-first the ground like he got shot by a sniper. Absolutely incredible! Forget “Knockout of the Year,” that wheel kick is up there when it comes to “Knockout of the Decade,” much less one of the best in company history. Unreal. The crowd is electric, no one can hear anyone think. Knowing that there is nothing else he needs to do tonight, Ruffy stands stoically above his fallen opponent, while Tognoni sprints in to make sure Green does not take any more damage. Meanwhile, blood pours out of the nose of the flattened Green, who manages to come to and eventually makes it back to his feet. With plenty of energy left in the tank, Ruffy goes off to perform several flips and capoeira moves, sticking the landing each and every time to further wow the fans. The Fighting Nerds have one more highlight on the reel, and the victorious Ruffy dons his team’s famed glasses and gives commentator Joe Rogan a pair to sport as well. Knowing exactly what he wants next, Ruffy calls for a headlining opportunity against Beneil Dariush. The UFC would be hard pressed to pass that up. Wow. What a knockout. Mauricio Ruffy is for real.
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. Bobby Green R1 2:07 via KO (Spinning Wheel Kick)
Connor picks Ruffy despite acknowledging that stylistically, Green should be able to outbox him. He notes that Green has been getting hurt more often and fighting in a way that leaves him vulnerable to big punchers. Connor believes that even if Green has a good first round, he is likely to get knocked out eventually. He admits the line is too wide and that Ruffy has yet to prove himself against veteran talent.
Zane picks Green, hoping for a vintage performance. He believes that if Green doesn't get knocked out, he can outwork Ruffy with smarter reads and better cardio. Zane points out that Ruffy struggled against James Llontop, who is slow and clumsy, and that Green is a much more technical boxer. He acknowledges the risk but wants to see Green replicate his win over Nasrat Haqparast.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 15 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| King Green | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paddy Pimblett | 15 of 21 | 71% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| King Green | 8 of 13 | 61% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Green (-120), Pimblett (+100)
Round 1
While the last two fights are championship affairs with a Brit defending their throne, fans might be here for the people’s main event that is the “featured fight of the night.” No matter his new first name, for play-by-play purposes this Strikeforce veteran will be called by his surname, Green (32-15-1, 1 NC; 13-10-1, 1 NC UFC). He will try to take all the wind out of the sails of the raucous Manchester crowd, which is going bananas for Pimblett (21-3, 5-0 UFC). Referee Lukasz Bosacki can scarcely hear himself think, but he knows it is time and starts the fight between the beloved lightweights. Even having said earlier this week it is all business, the two choose not to touch gloves before slugging it out. Green’s hands are low as always, and he pokes at the front leg with a kick. Pimblett winds up with a much heavier kick on the inside, and he lands a second with emphasis. Pimblett sticks out a jab and checks a kick, and he sits down on an especially powerful calf kick. Green marches forward and starts talking trash, and Pimblett catches him with a counter as he backs off. Green brushes his shoulder when Pimblett lands on him, and the Brit lands a low kick as well. Green connects with a pair of stomping kicks to the knee, and he reaches a left hand to the midsection. Green kicks the front leg and is tripped up, and he acknowledges the strike and kicks at him. Green points at his adversary as he walks him down, and he tells Pimblett to hit him. Pimblett elects to kick the calf instead, and Green kicks him in the ribs in response. Green keeps jabbing with his front leg, and he shoots for a takedown and falls straight into a guillotine choke attempt. Green slips out of it, and Pimblett adjusts and locks down a triangle choke. Green rolls to the side but is still dangerously caught in the submission, and Pimblett starts celebrating as he leans back. Green struggles and gets rolled to his back, and he wrenches on the arm while crushing on Green’s carotid artery. Life leaves Green’s eyes as the submission deprives him completely of his consciousness, and Bosacki recognizes this and rescues the snoozing Green from further harm. Pimblett immediately lets go and leaps to the top of the cage as the audience explodes to celebrate the stoppage win for their star. He jumps out of the Octagon to high-five UFC chief Hunter Campbell, and the crowd is absolutely deafening. “The Baddy” passed the biggest test of his career with flying colors, putting the dangerous Green to sleep and becoming the first fighter to submit Green since 2009.
The Official Result
Paddy Pimblett def. Bobby Green R1 3:22 via Technical Submission (Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks King Green (Bobby Green) as the better striker with good takedown defense. He notes that Green's volume and defense are excellent, but he only bets half a unit because Green is fighting in enemy territory, could face a sketchy decision, and if taken down by Pimblett, he may not get back up. Angelo acknowledges Pimblett's grappling control but believes Green's striking will be the difference.
Cody is confident in King Green, citing his well-rounded skills and veteran savvy. He notes that Paddy Pimblett has looked unimpressive in his UFC fights, often losing rounds before getting finishes, and that his lifestyle and mindset are not conducive to long-term success. Cody believes Green's boxing and takedown defense will be too much, and that Paddy's path to victory is narrow. He predicts Green by decision.
Daniel picks King Green, impressed by his performance against Jim Miller where he overwhelmed a durable opponent. He believes Green's wrestling defense will hold up against Pimblett, and that Green's volume and power will be too much. He notes Pimblett gets hit often and Green can exploit that.
Daniel notes Paddy's early explosiveness but worries about his cardio, citing him pulling guard against Tony Ferguson. He thinks Bobby Green's age (37) and hands-down style could lead to him getting caught early. He leans Paddy but wants underdog odds to bet, expecting a close decision or early finish.
Jeff picks King Green, citing Green's volume and power. He thinks Pimblett will eventually get caught and knocked out, though he's not sure if it happens this week. He believes Green's wrestling defense is adequate and that Pimblett won't get him down.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a horrible matchup for Paddy. He highlights Green's takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights) and his advantage on the feet. Paul expects Green to cruise to a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of a bad split decision in the UK. He also mentions the possibility of betting Green by decision at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Paddy Pimblett by submission (rear-naked choke), likely in the first or second round. He believes Pimblett can exploit Bobby Green's tendency to give up his back when defending takedowns. The Guru notes that Green was easily controlled on the ground by Islam Makhachev and that Pimblett has a size and strength advantage. He also thinks Pimblett will use kicks at range and wait for grappling opportunities, rather than brawling. The Guru is influenced by a recent interview with Pimblett, which increased his confidence.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 1 | 186 of 319 | 58% | 187 of 320 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 57 of 144 | 39% | 58 of 145 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 43 of 83 | 51% | 43 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | King Green | 0 | 61 of 115 | 53% | 61 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | King Green | 1 | 82 of 121 | 67% | 83 of 122 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 186 of 319 | 58% | 136 of 245 | 40 of 56 | 10 of 18 | 167 of 295 | 7 of 8 | 12 of 16 |
| Jim Miller | 57 of 144 | 39% | 29 of 103 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 23 | 55 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 43 of 83 | 51% | 26 of 57 | 12 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 43 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 17 of 46 | 36% | 9 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | King Green | 61 of 115 | 53% | 45 of 88 | 13 of 19 | 3 of 8 | 60 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 20 of 53 | 37% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | King Green | 82 of 121 | 67% | 65 of 100 | 15 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 64 of 99 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 16 |
| Jim Miller | 20 of 45 | 44% | 11 of 31 | 5 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.
Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.
Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.
Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.
The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.
Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 1 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 33 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| King Green | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalin Turner | 33 of 60 | 55% | 26 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| King Green | 15 of 26 | 57% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jalin Turner despite short notice, citing his size advantage and danger everywhere. He thinks Turner's reach and height will be a problem for Green, and that Green's hands-down style could get him caught. He expects an early finish but notes cardio concerns if the fight extends. He calls it a step down in competition for Turner.
Cody is torn but tentatively picks Turner. He acknowledges Turner's weight cut issues and short notice, but thinks Turner is faster, longer, and the better striker. He worries about Turner's cardio in later rounds but believes if Turner minds his distance, he can win. He considers waiting for weigh-ins and possibly betting Green live after the first round.
Lucrative James leans towards Bobby Green as a dog, noting that Jalin Turner has never won a decision and has a questionable chin. He believes if Green survives round one, the fight becomes 50-50, with Green having an edge in later rounds. He is not confident but sees value in Green at plus money.
Green is on a two-fight winning streak and has a volume-heavy style that could overwhelm Turner. Turner has lost two in a row and has had weight issues, plus he took this fight on short notice. Green's durability and pressure should allow him to outwork Turner, especially if the fight goes into deep waters. A decision win is predicted.
Paul already bet Bobby Green at plus money. He cites Green's durability, cardio, and the fact that Turner missed weight last time and is on short notice. He thinks Green can go hard three rounds and that Turner's cardio falls off. He also likes Green round three prop at +2000. He notes Green is historically a slow starter but believes he can take over late.
The MMA Guru picks Jalin Turner, citing his reach advantage, versatility, and ability to chop the legs and body. He believes Bobby Green struggles without a reach advantage and that Turner's dynamic striking will be too much. He expects a decision win for Turner, 30-27.
Grant Dawson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 35 of 94 | 37% | 71 of 136 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 4 | 0 | 7:08 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 33 of 64 | 51% | 49 of 81 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 1 | 2:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 21 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 34 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 26 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 35 of 94 | 37% | 19 of 67 | 14 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 24 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 33 of 64 | 51% | 27 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 13 of 21 | 61% | 7 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 8 of 11 | 72% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 20 of 69 | 28% | 10 of 48 | 8 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 24 of 51 | 47% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Mateusz Rębecki | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-170), Rebecki (+142)
Round 1
American Top Team training partners collide when Dawson (23-3-1, 11-2-1 UFC) and Rebecki (20-4, 4-3 UFC) come to blows over the next 15 minutes or fewer. Teams don’t fight for their fighters, and it is only the competitors and referee Mike Beltran—and he knows you’re alone in there. Aware of one another’s game, this could go any number of ways—hopefully that way is exciting. The athletes touch ‘em up.
Rebecki ambles his way forward, ducking and dipping his way forward. Dawson introduces himself by booting the Polish fighter in the face and cutting him open on his left eyebrow, on the very first strike of the fight. Dawson goes to the body after, and he brings up a knee when he sees Rebecki is about to take him down. The scramble is wild between the two, as Rebecki is thwarted for his efforts with Dawson circling around to take his back. Rebecki grabs the fence heartily, resulting in multiple slaps from Beltran for his foul. Rebecki stands up, with Dawson wrapped around his waist from behind threatening chokes. Dawson has a body triangle locked up, and Rebecki grabs the fencing again to try to improve his position. Beltran shuts it down. Dawson wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Rebecki lowers himself down to the floor and keeps his chin tight to his chest.
Dawson uses his toes to illegally maintain his position on Rebecki’s back by grabbing them in the fencing, and Rebecki is leaned over trying to shimmy his training partner off of him. Rebecki posts on both arms, and Dawson strips them away. Rebecki hits a quick switch out of nowhere to turn about and put Dawson on his seat against the wire. Dawson wall-walks to get upright before long, and now it is Rebecki who has his arms around a waist. Rebecki raps a few right hands on the side of the dome, and he opens up with an uppercut and a right hand when they manage to break. Dawson kicks him twice in the body, and his knee partially finds its target on the chest. Rebecki boots Dawson’s leg out from beneath him, and when Dawson scrambles to his feet, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 2
The two are glad to touch gloves to get going, and Dawson chambers his knee ready for Rebecki to advance towards him. Rebecki does not sprint his way in, so Dawson kicks him in the face. Rebecki loads up a monster right hand and knocks Dawson off his feet. Dawson shells up to protect himself and stand up, and Rebecki clings to him rather than laying into him with power punches. Dawson does not mind being stuck controlled by his opponent because it means he can get his wits about him again. Dawson offers a no-look elbow from behind to no effect, and Rebecki slowly slugs him with a few more rights until they separate. Dawson gets back to kicking Rebecki in the ribs repeatedly. Dawson sells out for a spinning wheel kick, but he is out of range and off-balance as well. Rebecki lumbers his way forward, straight into a head kick. He still changes levels after taking the kick, and he bails on it and guard against a jump knee. Rebecki tags Dawson with a left hand while Dawson is looking for big knees and kicks.
Dawson kicks his foe’s feet out, and when Rebecki stands, Dawson is in his face putting hands on him. Rebecki breaks off and threatens with fireball left hands. Dawson catches him with a right. Rebecki turns his hips into a low kick, and he misses a haymaker by a matter of inches. Rebecki leaps forward to split the guard with a left, and he ducks into a kick when slinging another. Dawson shoots, and Rebecki sprawls to circle around and away. Dawson kicks, and Rebecki knocks him to his seat. Dawson climbs back up and gets clubbed on the ear with a right hand and a left. Dawson still marches forward despite getting tagged, and he clinches up his foe. Fans do not like the slowdown or the tactic. Dawson drills a knee to the chest and splits off to kick Rebecki in the face. Rebecki catches the kick and trips Dawson up to hurl him indiscriminately to the mat. Rebecki leans on top of Dawson until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Round 3
A double clap of hands gets things going in the last round. Both men wing something at one another and pull back, and the first to commit is Dawson. Dawson kicks Rebecki in the head, and Rebecki trips out his other leg. Dawson gets hold of Rebecki in a scramble and takes his back standing up. The two roll to the mat, with Dawson following the whole time and securing the back take. Dawson ties up the body triangle and starts smacking the Polish fighter with short punches on either side of the temple. Rebecki remains calm while stuck in this dominant position defending the rear-naked choke, so Dawson switches to neck crank. Rebecki’s arms go slacked, and Beltran is about to step in but Rebecki motions double thumbs-up to him. This is a strategy of his, as it turns out, and he is able to wriggle himself free. Dawson fastens another choke around the chin, and Rebecki defends well.
Dawson keeps offering setups from either side, and Rebecki hand-fights him to prevent from anything getting close. Rebecki turns over to alleviate some of the pressure. Dawson follows him every which way and beats down Rebecki with punches and elbows when a choke is not there. “KGD” rolls his man over and keeps his left arm wrapped on the chin to set a trap. Rebecki turns just the wrong way, and
Dawson fastens his arm beneath the jaw in the form of a modified rear-naked choke. Rebecki frantically fights the hands but is in big trouble. This time, Dawson is using one single arm, but it is powerful enough that the light slowly leaves Rebecki’s eyes, drifting towards unconsciousness as angels and demons flicker across his vision. Before he goes all the way out, Rebecki submits.
Dawson immediately releases his grip and dismounts his foe to drop to his knee and let out his emotions. Manly tears flow from his face, who later explains to commentator Joe Rogan that he just learned this particular version of this submission, a "genie" choke, recently.
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:42 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki because he is exciting and never stops trying to finish. He thinks the fight is either Grant Dawson gets takedowns and dominates, or Rębecki stuffs the first takedown and knocks him out. He admits he can't bring himself to root against the most exciting guy in the division.
Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki, emphasizing his fast starts, intent to finish, and never-quit attitude. He notes Dawson is a wrestler who will shoot takedowns, but Rębecki has never accepted a position and will keep moving forward. He thinks Rębecki has 15 minutes to find a finish over Dawson, who can be finished. He admits he cannot bet on Rębecki due to his recklessness.
Big Brady leans Grant Dawson, citing his excellent ground game and improved cardio at American Top Team. He notes Rębecki does not wear damage well and has questionable cardio. Brady predicts Dawson will get takedowns and ground-and-pound, leading to a late-round TKO, specifically third round. He also mentions a prop on Underdog for Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes.
Cody picks Dawson, citing his wrestling advantage and Rebecki's cardio issues. He thinks Dawson can take Rebecki down and control him, avoiding Rebecki's power. Cody expects Dawson to win by decision.
Connor also picks Dawson hesitantly. He emphasizes that Dawson is a mediocre athlete who stifles opponents but often fades late. Rębecki is difficult to discourage and may take over in the third round. Connor notes that most of Dawson's opponents are either finished early or more tired than him in the third, but Rębecki's toughness could change that.
Daniel picks Rębecki, acknowledging Dawson's top control danger but believing Rębecki's grappling with elite opponents and striking advantage will lead to an upset. He notes Rębecki's win over Mctobec Oral as proof of his grappling credentials.
Predicted method: Decision. Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.81 takedowns per round) should overwhelm Rębecki, who has only 50% takedown defense and has lost three of his last four. Rębecki is aggressive on the feet (5.21 SLpM) but leaves himself open to takedowns. Dawson's 1.1 submission average and top control will be key; he can grind out a decision or find a submission. Rębecki's only chance is a knockout, but Dawson has never been knocked out. Expect Dawson to control the fight and win by decision or submission.
Jacob picks Rębecki by first-round knockout at +500. He thinks Grant Dawson has shown he can be dropped easily and that Rębecki will be swinging for the fences. He notes that Dawson has issues in the first round and that Rębecki is a short stocky guy who is hard to take down.
Lucrative James picks Grant Dawson because he believes Dawson's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Mateusz Rębecki if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that Rębecki's only path to victory is an early knockout, as Dawson has been finished early before. He predicts Dawson will win by ground and pound, similar to Diego Ferreira's win over Rębecki.
The host picks Dawson, believing his grappling and gas tank will be superior. He notes that Rębecki throws wide power shots that leave openings for Dawson to get takedowns. He expects Dawson to grind out a decision, though he acknowledges Rębecki's power and grappling background could make it close. He is not interested at -160 but thinks Dawson wins.
Paul leans Dawson but is not fully confident. He notes Dawson's wrestling and Rebecki's vulnerability to takedowns, but also Rebecki's power and durability. Paul expects a close fight but gives Dawson the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki as an underdog, citing his solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Dawson's chin is a concern after being KO'd by Manuel Torres and Bobby Green. He believes Rębecki's power and durability will catch Dawson, predicting a KO win.
Zane picks Dawson but is hesitant. He notes that Dawson will likely outwrestle Rębecki early, but Rębecki is a tough grinder who may come on late as Dawson fades. Zane compares it to the Ricky Glenn fight where Dawson lost a late lead. He thinks Dawson will win the first two rounds but could lose the third, making it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manuel Torres | 1 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manuel Torres | 9 of 17 | 52% | 5 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-218), Torres (+180)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Torres takes the center of the cage. Dawson flocks out a high kick. Another head kick slams off of Torres’ guard. Dawson’s first shot is denied by Torres, who is patient early. Torres steps in with a left, and Dawson returns fire with an overhand right. Dawson remains active with his kicking game, as he lands to his foe’s body. Torres kicks the body in return. A straight left ot the body connects for Torres. Torres stuffs anotehr takedown. Dawson lands a front kick down the middle. “El Loco” is unfazed, and he finds his opening moments later. After Dawson whiffs on an overhand,
Torres goes on the attack, dropping his American adversary with a rapid-fire combination. Dawson collapses to the canvas and covers up. Torres wastes little time sealing his victory, as he unloads with a barrage of approximately five unanswered hammerfists to force the stoppage.
That’s now five finishes in five UFC victories — and 16 first-round stoppages overall — for the Mexican standout.
The Official Result
Manuel Torres def. Grant Dawson via TKO (Punches) R1 2:25
Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite calling him the most boring fighter on the roster. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and grappling, and expects him to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Manuel Torres is dangerous but believes Dawson's game plan will prevail. Angelo expresses disdain for the entertainment value but respects Dawson's skills.
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson, expecting him to weather Torres' early storm and take the fight to the mat. He notes Dawson's improved cardio and ground and pound at American Top Team, and predicts a second-round TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Dawson but is hesitant due to Torres' knockout power. He believes Dawson's wrestling and control will neutralize Torres, as Torres has not shown good takedown defense. He notes that Dawson trains at American Top Team and will likely get early takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of getting knocked out but trusts Dawson's game plan.
Connor picks Grant Dawson by smothering wrestling, noting that Dawson has won 23 of 25 fights and is a proven grinder. He acknowledges that Dawson has never beaten a real hitter and has faded in fights where he didn't crush his opponent early, but still sees Dawson's path to victory through control.
Daniel picks Dawson, believing his relentless grappling will drown Torres if he survives the first round. He notes Torres has never been past the first round and has knockout power, but Dawson's improved striking and top control should prevail in an extended fight. He expects a submission or ground-and-pound TKO.
Lucrative James highlights Grant Dawson's elite wrestling and back-taking ability. He notes that Manuel Torres is a fast starter who fades if he doesn't finish early, and that Dawson's grappling will neutralize Torres' power. He also mentions that Dawson's teammate Chris Duncan has fought Torres before, providing valuable intel. He predicts Dawson wins inside the distance via grappling.
The host views this as a dangerous early fight for Dawson but believes if he can secure takedowns and wear Torres down, his elite lightweight grappling will shine. He expects Dawson to find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul is confident in Dawson, citing his wrestling and control time. He notes that Dawson has dominated grapplers and that Torres' wins are all first-round finishes, which becomes less likely if Dawson gets takedowns. He believes Dawson will smother Torres and win by decision or submission.
The Guru picks Grant Dawson over Manuel Torres, trusting Dawson's elite grappling to survive Torres' early power. He notes Torres has never left the first round and has been submitted before. The Guru predicts a late second or third round submission or ground-and-pound finish.
Zane picks Manuel Torres as a fun upset, citing that Torres is a big, strong athlete with quick reactions who may be hard to hold down. He notes that Dawson has been taken down quickly by Chris Duncan and that Torres has submission threats. Zane believes Torres could knock Dawson out if he can't control him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 56 of 98 | 57% | 195 of 269 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 10:50 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 41 of 61 | 67% | 84 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 43 of 54 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 64 of 90 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 29 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 88 of 125 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 56 of 98 | 57% | 51 of 91 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 7 of 8 | 30 of 43 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 41 of 61 | 67% | 31 of 48 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 31 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 31 | 67% | 19 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 11 of 16 | 68% | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 21 of 39 | 53% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 14 of 28 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 14 |
| Carlos Diego Ferreira | 13 of 17 | 76% | 11 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-258), Ferreira (+210)
Round 1
A generational gap separates the two lightweights about to set foot in the cage, with the fighters 10 years apart. Dawson (22-2-1, 10-1-1 UFC) is the far younger at 30, while Ferreira (19-5, 10-5 UFC) is the kind of guy who wants to get punched in the face for his 40th birthday. If he wins, one hopes that commentator Joe Rogan will urge the crowd to sing to him, but it is an uphill battle to get to that point. The third man in the Octagon for this fringe 155-pound contender pairing is referee Frank Trigg, who sits back as the fighters respectfully touch gloves. Dawson engages in assuming the center of the cage, and his first strike is a spinning back fist that buzzes past his foe. Ferreira moves to the side, aims a low kick, and chants for “USA” come down in support of Dawson. That excites him to the point of hurling a spinning wheel kick that partially lands, and he ignores any counter to spin and plant his foot on Ferreira’s ribcage. Dawson steps in with a right hand, and after connecting with a few punches, he spins with another back kick. Ferreira answers him with a surprisingly effective calf kick, and he goes to it again only to get caught with a pair of overhand rights. Ferreira returns fire with punches until Dawson shoots in on his hips and takes him to the canvas. Ferreira stands back up and leans against the fence, and he gets kneed legally in the face as he has his hands on the mat but no knees. Ferreira lowers himself to the ground to scramble and get up, and Dawson puts him in a precarious position by holding Ferreira’s leg in the air. With Ferreira leaned over and one hand on the ground, Dawson kicks him upside the head twice in what are now legal blows, and Ferreira panics and drops to the ground. Dawson looks to assume top control, and Ferreira hand-fights to keep Dawson from shifting around to take his back. When Ferreira turns to escape, Dawson follows him over and flattens him out while in full guard. Dawson bucks, sits up and drills the Brazilian with a solid left hand, before laying flat to smother. Ferreira pushes off to force Dawson to stand, and he belts “KGD” in the face with an upkick that appears to hurt him. Dawson lowers himself into the guard as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 2
The fighters bump fists to get going, and Ferreira leads the dance with a front kick. Ferreira follows it with a flurry of punches to get Dawson’s attention, and his forward momentum allows him to take Dawson off his feet. Ferreira attempts a leglock from a strange angle, and he attempts to take Dawson’s back but slides off. Dawson stands up and misses with a back fist, and the two walk towards one another and starting swinging heavy leather. Ferreira catches Dawson with a huge right hand, only to get taken off his feet with an easy takedown. Dawson postures up to strike, exerting full pressure on his foe while dragging things to a crawl. The audience responds in kind, not thrilled by the grind being embraced. When Ferreira sits up against the fence, Dawson sucks his hips out and lays into him with ground-and-pound. Dawson continues to force Ferreira flat on his back, unleashing strikes any time he can find an opening. When Ferreira raises his legs up for a possible choke attempt, Dawson pushes past it and smashes into the Brazilian with a crushing elbow. A second comes shortly thereafter, authoring a loud clacking sound from the elbow connecting with some face bone. The ground strikes continue as the round comes to an end.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
At the very first second of the round, Dawson rushes for a takedown. Ferreira fights off the first attempt, and he scrambles to set up an unorthodox leglock when Dawson drags him down. The submission is nowhere to be found, and Dawson rolls him over to his back and gets in the guard. Dawson beats down on Ferreira slowly and methodically, and suddenly, Trigg tells them to get back to their feet and stands them up without a warning. This lights a fire under Ferreira’s backside, who swings for the bleachers. Dawson does the same, and he sets Ferreira to a knee with a huge right hand. Dawson tackles Ferreira to the floor, and he gets right to it with body shots and the occasional one up to the head. Trigg almost immediately calls for more action, and Dawson proves this by posturing up to rain down heavy blows. Ferreira closes his guard and locks Dawson down in hopes of a standup, but Dawson pulls through it and starts pummeling the Brazilian with his fists. The audience is not happy about Dawson’s ground assault, and Dawson shuts them up for a moment by standing up and beating Ferreira down with high-amplitude punches. Dawson backs off Trigg by connecting with further firepower, and Ferreira manages to sit up but gives up his back. Dawson gladly takes it and wraps up the body triangle, his knees red and layers of skin ripped off from his takedown efforts. With seconds to spare, “KGD” attempts a rear-naked choke, but there is not enough time to wrap it up. Time elapses, and the fighters hug it out. This makes it five decisions in a row to start off this event.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-27 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Diego Ferreira via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson to win, expecting his relentless wrestling and control to be effective. However, he plans to bet on Diego Ferreira via 'inside the distance decision no action' prop, believing Ferreira is tough enough to avoid being finished and could potentially finish Dawson. He acknowledges Dawson's boring style but respects his wrestling.
Cody picks Grant Dawson but is hesitant. He acknowledges Dawson's excellent wrestling and cardio, but notes his chin has been exposed (Bobby Green KO, Ricky Glenn draw). Dawson has taken down strong wrestlers like Mark Madsen and Ismagulov. Ferreira is a dangerous striker and BJJ black belt who has been taken down many times but often survives. Cody believes Dawson's wrestling will be the difference, but Ferreira's power and submission threat make it risky. He moves Dawson down in his parlay.
Daniel picks Ferreira, citing his elite Jiu-Jitsu and striking advantage. He notes that Dawson is one-dimensional and has been knocked out before. Daniel is concerned about Ferreira's age (40) but thinks his ground game and striking are superior. He mentions that Dawson's losses are exciting because he gets knocked out, and Ferreira could exploit Dawson's holes.
The host points out Ferreira turns 40 on fight day and expects him to show decline. Dawson is a streaking contender who should implement his wrestling, break down Ferreira, and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul picks Ferreira as an underdog. He notes that Ferreira is a more refined striker with knockout power and a BJJ black belt, giving him multiple paths to victory. Paul points out that Dawson has been knocked out and has cardio issues in later rounds. Ferreira has shown he can survive takedowns and submit opponents. Paul believes Ferreira's chaotic striking and opportunistic submissions will cause problems for Dawson, and at plus money, he sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira over Grant Dawson. He highlights Ferreira's scrambling ability against elite grapplers like Gamrot and Dariush, and his power in his hands with nasty knockout ability. He notes Ferreira's recent momentum, including a win over Rebecki and a knockout of Michael Johnson. He worries about Dawson if he can't get his grappling going, and believes Ferreira will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 44 of 90 | 48% | 80 of 144 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| Rafa García | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 29 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 41 of 87 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Rafa García | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 27 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 24 of 38 | 63% | 39 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Rafa García | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 44 of 90 | 48% | 38 of 76 | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 39 of 66 |
| Rafa García | 5 of 12 | 41% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 20 of 52 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 35 |
| Rafa García | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 24 of 38 | 63% | 22 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 31 |
| Rafa García | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-395), Garcia (+310)
Round 1
Moving right along, lightweight contender Dawson (21-2-1, 9-1-1 UFC) needs this next opportunity to put together a win streak. To do so, he will need to get past Mexico’s Garcia (16-3, 4-3 UFC), who will not make it easy on him. Referee Chris Tognoni checks in as the cage commander for this 155-pound contest, and it kicks off with a glove touch. Garcia crouches several times early, expecting to have to defend against a level change. Dawson meets one of those with a front kick, and Garcia just barely dodges it. Garcia avoids another jabbing kick to throw out a one-two to the body. Dawson sticks him with a jab and uses another front kick, and he parries an overhand right. Dawson gets knocked off-balance with a right hand, and he gathers himself and spins with a wheel kick. Garcia walks forward slinging hands, and Dawson answers a solid right hand with a single-leg entry that plants “Gifted” on his knee. Dawson hits a mat return when Garcia powers his way back up, and this time he has Garcia flat on his back. Dawson opens with ground-and-pound and is answered some from Garcia, and Garcia’s hit the back of his foe’s head as Tognoni asks him not to land fouls. Dawson sits up to hammer Garcia with two big punches, an elbow and some other ground strikes to disguise his guard pass to half guard. Dawson stays busy with smothering top control and active offense, getting hard shots in when not attempting to advance position. Dawson gets pushed back for a moment, and he bowls Garcia back over with elbows. “KGD” shifts from one side to the other to pass the guard, and he pounds down with strikes. Garcia kicks him off to gain a bit of space, only for Dawson to swarm him with standing-to-ground punches. Garcia scrambles madly until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to get going, and Dawson is eager to kick things off by kicking four times with four different types of kicks. His spin kick finds its home, and he uses that to get in close, swing an overhand right and duck low to secure an easy takedown less than 30 seconds into the round. Dawson finds openings and attacks with hammerfists or elbows, and he takes a chunk out of Garcia’s forehead with a Friday the 13th-insired slashing elbow. Blood sprays from the Mexican’s head as he turns to his knees, and Dawson further beats on him with a barrage of punches.
Sitting proudly in mount, “KGD” unleashes a mighty barrage of punches and elbows, clubbing Garcia as Tognoni asks Garcia to fight back. Dawson knows the finish is around the corner, with Garcia bloodied and bruised, and he finishes the job with a final salvo of punches. Tognoni has no choice to step in
, and the American Top Team contender notches his first knockout in nearly three years. In victory, Dawson becomes the first fighter to ever stop the durable man from Mexican.
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Rafa Garcia R2 1:42 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson despite disliking his fighting style. He notes that Dawson's wrestling and control are reliable, and that Rafa García tends to gas. Angelo acknowledges Dawson's knockout loss to Bobby Green but believes Dawson will win by grinding out a decision. He calls Dawson a reliable bettor's fighter.
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by third-round submission. He considers Dawson a top-15 lightweight with top-10 upside, and believes he is on another level compared to Garcia. He praises Dawson's wrestling and grappling, citing his submission of Jared Gordon and dominant win over Damir Ismagulov. He expects Dawson to get takedowns, wear on Garcia, and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. He thinks Garcia is solid but outmatched.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Garcia's game is subtractive but not potent enough to stop Dawson's relentless wrestling. He notes that Garcia's wins over wrestlers like Clay Guida are not indicative because Guida is washed. Connor believes Dawson's suffocating style will eventually get the takedown and control the fight.
Daniel admits he dislikes Dawson's style and believes his striking is elementary, but he respects Dawson's grappling and top control. He notes that Rafa García has decent takedown defense but thinks Dawson will likely grind out a boring decision. Daniel hopes García stuffs takedowns and wins, but his head says Dawson's wrestling will be the difference.
Dawson does not care to entertain but gets wins. He will do what he did to Joe Solecki last time. Garcia may stop the first couple takedowns, but Dawson's great gas tank will wear on Garcia, allowing Dawson to win a classic Dawson decision.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing his phenomenal grappling and talent advantage over Rafa García, who he says has no finishing potential. He notes Dawson's suspect chin and poor stand-up but believes his grappling will easily outclass García. He also mentions Dawson's momentum coming off a win and training with Makhachev.
Zane picks Dawson because Garcia's anti-wrestling is based on defense and he isn't dangerous enough to keep Dawson off him. He notes that Garcia's best chance is to stuff takedowns early and tire Dawson, but Dawson often wins even after gassing. Zane thinks Garcia's lack of finishing ability means he can't overcome Dawson's pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 146 of 190 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 13:46 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 34 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 51 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:31 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 61 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 46 of 70 | 65% | 39 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 38 of 55 |
| Joe Solecki | 12 of 19 | 63% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Joe Solecki | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 17 of 25 | 68% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 19 |
| Joe Solecki | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 22 of 34 | 64% | 18 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 26 |
| Joe Solecki | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-410), Solecki (+320)
Round 1
The prelims roll on with an interesting stylistic clash of grapplers in the lightweight category. Coming off his first loss since 2016, it will be interesting to see how Dawson (20-2-1, 8-1-1 UFC) rebounds—he smoked Christian Camp in his bounce-back effort after dropping his first fight. Hailing from about 90 minutes southwest of the Prudential Center, Solecki (13-4, 5-2 UFC) will be his adversary, and the crowd roars in approval of their home state fighter. Referee Jason Herzog can scarcely hear himself think, but he starts the fight anyway. Taking a page out of the playbook of Jorge Masvidal, Dawson sprints at Solecki and leaps at him with a flying knee. Solecki plays the matador to let him slide past him, and he drags Dawson down from behind and threatens with a guillotine choke. Dawson resets to break out of the submission setup and takes top position, and Solecki readjusts to lock the choke down and gets a hook around the side. Solecki briefly claims mount with the choke set, and Dawson continues to shift and move until he breaks out of the choke. Dawson keeps tight chest pressure when he resides on top, and Solecki hacks at him from off his back with elbows. Dawson postures up, and he lowers himself down to soften the body up. Solecki defends from anything of merit landing from above, and he carves Dawson open with an elbow. Dawson may hold top position, but he is not winning in practically any of the exchanges. Dawson bleeds down on Solecki and tries to open up on ground-and-pound, and he manages to get off a few elbows of his own. Dawson lands a few more hammerfists and punches, and when the horn sounds, he helps Solecki up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Solecki
Round 2
Dawson starts off the round aggressively, punching his way into closing the distance. Solecki flails back, but he gets pushed back towards the wall and is forced to defend a takedown. “KGD” easily grounds Solecki, where he lands in the guard and starts to rack up more top control time. Dawson grinds his elbow on the forehead, and as he holds Solecki down, the crowd boos his lackluster approach. Dawson winds up with a powerful elbow, slashing down at Solecki, and he sporadically works with strikes. Dawson finds an opening to land three right hands after a Solecki fails, and he smacks Solecki around from any angle he can find. Solecki is unable to offer any offense of his own, and a submission is nowhere to be found. Dawson cannot pass guard, but he keeps Solecki down and stays just active enough to stave off a Herzog standup. Dawson stands up to drop down a few standing-to-ground punches, and the momentum drives him back into the tie-up. Dawson makes life miserable for the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
The lightweights clap hands to open up the final round, and Solecki runs at him and shoots for a single-leg takedown. As Dawson staves it off, Solecki whips a body kick at him, but it is too low and smashes straight into Dawson’s cup. Dawson groans and drops to a knee, and Herzog calls time. Dawson does not take long before he is ready to go again, and he proceeds to drive Solecki to the wall upon restart. Solecki swings, and Dawson ducks and secures a takedown like a hot knife through butter. Dawson does not care to shift to half guard, and he ignores a guillotine setup so he can line up ground strikes. Solecki is stuck with no options, kept with his upper back pressed on the wall and trapped in a position that allows him no offense or escape. Dawson completely nullifies him, but he cannot get any further than the full guard of his foe. Solecki uses a butterfly guard to prevent Dawson from advancing beyond that posture, but he eats three elbows during one exchange. Dawson stands up in an effort to push through the guard, and he rains down punches from on high until leaps into the guard again. “KGD” answers Herzog’s call for action by elbowing and punching Solecki a few times, and the grind has been firmly embraced. Solecki kicks off and gets to his knees with seconds to go, and Dawson nearly knees him illegally in this position. The lackluster fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (29-28 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Joe Solecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson because he believes whoever shoots first will win, and Dawson is more willing to dive at legs immediately. He thinks the jiu-jitsu will cancel out, so wrestling will decide it. He also notes that Dawson's recent knockout loss will make him even more eager to wrestle. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady likes Grant Dawson as a GPP play, expecting him to be lower owned. He highlights Dawson's big wrestling advantage, with takedowns and control time leading to ground strikes. He thinks Dawson could get a late finish in the third round. He sees Dawson's path to victory as a ton of takedowns and control.
Cody picks Dawson, criticizing Solecki's lack of improvement and one-dimensional jiu-jitsu. He notes Solecki's striking and wrestling are poor, and he has not evolved his game. Cody highlights Dawson's wins over Jared Gordon and Mark Madsen, and believes Dawson will take Solecki down and grind him out. He calls Solecki a 'Chase Hooper type' who can't get the fight to the ground.
Daniel is not a Dawson believer, citing his poor striking and chin issues. He notes Solecki is a better striker but lacks confidence and may pull guard. He reluctantly picks Dawson but says it's dog or pass.
The host believes Dawson is better everywhere and will dominate Solecki with relentless wrestling and top control. Solecki's submission threat off his back is overrated, and his striking is rudimentary. Dawson should control the pace and position, winning a decision or possibly finding a finish. The host is confident Dawson bounces back emphatically.
Paul picks Dawson, noting the stylistic matchup favors Dawson's grappling and cardio. He believes Dawson's volume and physicality will overwhelm Solecki, who lacks striking and wrestling. Paul mentions Dawson's only recent loss was a flash KO to Bobby Green, and he expects Dawson to get back on track. He added Dawson to a parlay at -350.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, noting that Joe Solecki is coming off a bad KO loss and lacks the ability to inflict pain on the feet. He believes Dawson has better standup and grappling, and that Solecki's jiu-jitsu won't be enough. He predicts Dawson by decision, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Grant Dawson | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Grant Dawson | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King Green | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Grant Dawson | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | King Green | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Grant Dawson | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-425), Green (+300)
Round 1
It’s time for the main event of the evening. A spot in the lightweight rankings is on the line, as top-10 Dawson (20-1-1, 8-0-1 UFC) fights to keep his place against unranked divisional stalwart Green (30-14-1, 1 NC; 11-9-1, 1 NC UFC). The classic stylistic matchup will play out across a maximum of five rounds with absolutely zero nonsense, and referee Keith Peterson receives the final assignment of the evening. There is no interest in a glove touch, and Dawson even offers a handshake that is rebuffed, as these Green would rather get right down to business. Green walks out of his corner with his hands low at his waist, and he backs Dawson up. Dawson swings with several wide punches, and every one misses the mark as Green dodges and weaves.
Calm as a cucumber, Green lances his opponent with a straight left hand, and Dawson collapses to the mat in grave danger. Green rains down two vicious right hands, forcing Dawson to turn to his side. “King” punishes Dawson with a few hammerfists as Dawson turns belly-down, completely defeated. Peterson intervenes to call a halt to the main event
, and Green has just secured the enormous upset to shatter Dawson’s lengthy unbeaten streak. Unbelievable! In his post-fight interview, the soon-to-be-ranked Green elects not to call for an individual name, and instead asks for a slot on a December card. If that ends up coming together, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Bobby Green def. Grant Dawson R1 0:33 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson very confidently, highlighting his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes that Bobby Green has abandoned his wrestling, making him one-dimensional and easy to take down. Dawson will likely ride out a boring wet blanket win. Angelo suggests Dawson can be parlayed.
Big Brady is confident in Grant Dawson, citing his recent improvements since moving to ATT and his dominant performance against Damir Ismagulov. He believes Dawson's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Bobby Green, who he thinks will not be able to stuff takedowns. He acknowledges Dawson's past cardio issues but thinks he has improved and will finish the fight before the fourth round, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody picks Grant Dawson, citing his improved cardio since moving to ATT, his wrestling ability, and his success against similar opponents like Damir Ismagulov. He notes that Bobby Green's takedown defense is good but hasn't been tested by elite wrestlers, and that Dawson's pressure and top control should be decisive. He acknowledges the line is high but believes Dawson is coming into his own.
Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green as a +325 underdog. He argues that Grant Dawson is one-dimensional, relying solely on grappling, while Bobby Green can grapple, strike, and has experience. He notes that Dawson's striking is a C-minus and that Green has never been dominated on the ground except by Islam Makhachev, who is on another level. Levi also questions Dawson's price at -425, pointing out that he was only -200 against Mark Madsen. He trusts his gut that Green can compete and is willing to take a one-unit shot.
Lucrative James picks Dawson to win by TKO, liking the +550 for Dawson by KO. He thinks the fight won't go five rounds and likes the under 4.5 rounds at -230. He believes Dawson will get top position and unleash ground and pound, as seen in past fights. He notes Green has good submission defense but Dawson's wrestling is overwhelming.
Dawson has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take Green down and control him. Green has poor takedown defense and Dawson has shown improved cardio. Dawson likely grinds out a decision win, as Green is tough to finish. The over 4.5 rounds and Dawson by decision are good prop plays. I'm not hot on the moneyline but expect Dawson to win.
Paul is tempted by Bobby Green at +320, noting that Green is difficult to take down and that Dawson's striking volume is low. He suggests Green could win by decision and that the value is appealing, but he is not fully committed. He mentions that if the number climbs, he might put a little on Green.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Bobby Green, predicting a rear-naked choke in round three. He believes Dawson is improving, coming into his prime at 29, and training at ATT. He notes Green is 37 and giving up reach, and that a full grappling camp for an older fighter risks injury. He thinks Dawson's elusiveness on the feet will allow him to time takedowns and land shots, unlike Green's previous opponents who charged forward. He references Jared Gordon's success by being on the back foot against Green.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 35 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:08 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 84 of 128 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 12:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 44 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 22 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:57 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:03 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 13 of 28 | 46% | 6 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 30 of 57 | 52% | 28 of 48 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 23 of 35 | 65% | 21 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 19 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 10 of 18 | 55% | 5 of 13 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Damir Ismagulov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ismagulov (-115), Dawson (-105)
Round 1
We have reached the co-main attraction, which takes place at 155 pounds between fringe contenders and exceptional grapplers Ismagulov (24-2, 5-1 UFC) and Dawson (19-1-1, 7-0-1 UFC). The former has gone the distance in six of his last seven, while Dawson has prevailed in six of his last seven – Ismagulov can say the same there as well. The two lightweights show ample respect as they shake hands in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ismagulov is the one pressure out of the gate. Dawson flings a left hand and a kick to make Ismagulov think twice, and he dives low for a single that is easily stuffed. Dawson wings a left hook that misses the mark, and Ismagulov skates to the side from a jab and clips Dawson with a right hand. Dawson throws right back with a left hook, and he digs a right hand to the body. Dawson snatches up the Russian’s leg and secures the single, and he succeeds in planting Ismagulov on his back. Dawson, in half guard, drops down a single left hand. Ismagulov turns over and gives up his back as he looks to escape, and Dawson follows him and wraps up a rear-naked choke. The arms cannot find the neck or even the chin, and Ismagulov fights the grip as he finds himself trapped in a body triangle. Ismagulov is warned for grabbing the inside of Dawson’s gloves to fight the hands, and Dawson stretches him out with the body triangle. Ismagulov tries to turn through it, and he sits up only to get pulled back down and his mouth covered. Dawson frustrates him with a combination of the body lock, mouth covering and hand-fighting, and Ismagulov turns to the side to shake off the leglock around his midsection. Dawson readjusts his leg grip on the body, and Ismagulov sways from side to side. Dawson locks down on a rear-naked choke with one of Ismagulov’s arms between his head and the choke grip, and Ismagulov fights out of it and turns around to his knees. Dawson stays tightly pressed to him, following him every step of the way and opening up with right hands when he has Ismagulov stuck on his side. Ismagulov turns frantically, and Dawson keeps a very high hook around the chest even as Ismagulov bucks him like a bronco. Ismagulov turns to his back again, and he rides out the round without being tapped.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Dawson
Round 2
The lightweights clap hands, and as Ismagulov is coming out of his corner, he is wincing and closing his right eye. Both fighters swing haymakers at the other, and Ismagulov catches Dawson with a left and a right. Dawson lifts up a knee, but Ismagulov does not walk into it. Instead, Ismagulov snaps the head back with a jab, and a straight right hand sends Dawson backpedaling. Dawson drops down, grabs hold of both of Ismagulov’s legs, picks him up like a 155-pound sack of potatoes and gingerly deposits him to the floor. The two end in a very unusual situation, as Ismagulov and Dawson were stuck in an odd north-south position for a moment. Dawson recovers faster to partially wind up on top, but Ismagulov also has his own hands clasped. Dawson slides around to get on top, and he snags Ismagulov’s back to get both hooks in. Dawson recovers his body triangle, and he racks up more back control time as he occasionally softens Ismagulov up with fists upside the head. Ismagulov answers with elbows to the thigh, and he fights a choke setup off but is still stuck in the body triangle. Dawson snakes an arm over the chin but cannot sneak it under it, and he settles for making Ismagulov’s life miserable. The round ends with Dawson hold on from behind, and he helps Ismagulov back to his feet as they return to their corners.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Round 3
The fighters hug it out to start off the last round, and Ismagulov is urgent to push the action knowing he is likely way down on the scorecards. Dawson slides to the side and pegs Ismagulov with a left hand, and Dawson grabs his foe from behind and elevates him. “KGD” tosses Ismagulov to the ground, and the body triangle is snatched up immediately as he secures back control. Dawson grabs the arm of Ismagulov and torques it back for something more frequently seen in the pro wrestling ring, like a full nelson or a reverse can opener. Ismagulov grits it out, as this is nothing more than an irritation to him, but Dawson is squeezing him and completely nullifying him. Dawson loops punches over the guard that are light and frustrating, and Dean asks for Dawson to work in this back control position. The hand-fighting from Ismagulov stop Dawson from a choke getting anywhere near close, and Dawson tries as hard as he can to even get one arm around the head of his adversary. Dawson switches his body lock from leg to leg as Ismagulov leans to one side or the other, and Ismagulov has no answers. Dawson considers an arm-in rear-naked choke again, and Ismagulov punches from behind to signal to Dawson there is nothing to it. With five seconds to go, Ismagulov explodes to turn himself around, but the fight ends before he can do anything with it. Barring something extremely bizarre, this should be a clean sweep for Dawson. Man, this kid is good.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson (30-26 Dawson)
The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Damir Ismagulov, citing his well-rounded skills, cardio, and ability to adjust. He believes Damir's striking is light years ahead of Grant Dawson's, and while Dawson is a good wrestler, he's not Arman Tsarukyan. He expects a razor-thin decision but thinks Damir gets it done. He avoids betting due to Damir's lack of finishing ability.
Big Brady picks Grant Dawson to win by decision, but is cautious. He notes Ismagulov has been dealing with injuries and looked off in his last fight, and has announced this is his retirement fight. Dawson has improved at American Top Team, with better striking and cardio. Brady thinks Dawson's wrestling and control will be key, and he can win a close decision, though he warns against being too confident either way.
Cody leans Dawson because of his wrestling and recent improvements, especially taking down Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen twice. He notes Ismagulov's takedown defense was exposed by Arman Tsarukyan (7 takedowns) and that Ismagulov fights to his opponent's level with low volume. Cody also mentions Dawson's cardio has improved, as shown by two straight third-round finishes. He considers it a close fight likely to go to decision.
Daniel picks Ismagulov but with low confidence, hinging on which version shows up after health issues and a brief retirement. He notes Ismagulov's striking is far superior to Dawson's, and if he can stuff takedowns (despite being taken down 7 times by Tsarukyan), he should win easily. However, he is concerned about Ismagulov's health and motivation, and reserves the right to change his pick after weigh-ins. He sees Dawson as a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, but acknowledges his relentless wrestling and guillotine threat.
James leans towards Ismagulov, believing he should be about a 60% favorite. He thinks Ismagulov's striking is cleaner and that he can defend takedowns well, as he did against Arman Tsarukyan early. He notes Dawson's cardio issues and that Ismagulov's cardio is strong, but he hasn't finished his tape study yet. He also mentions the retirement concern but says if Ismagulov is still the same fighter, he wins.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Dawson's move to American Top Team and his improved cardio and wrestling. He notes Ismagulov's retirement announcement and return, suggesting lack of motivation. Paul thinks Dawson's pressure and takedowns will be the difference, but acknowledges Ismagulov's cardio and durability.
The Guru picks Damir Ismagulov, citing Grant Dawson's struggle against Ricky Glenn as a huge red flag. He notes Ismagulov's ability to get back up and scrap, and predicts Dawson's takedowns will fail in the second round, leading to Ismagulov landing a straight right hand for a KO. He also criticizes Dawson's chin and teep kicks.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 1 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 73 of 96 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 9:31 |
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 50 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 27 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 13 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 26 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 1 | 26 of 36 | 72% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson | 33 of 49 | 67% | 17 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 25 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 |
| Mark Madsen | 15 of 30 | 50% | 11 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grant Dawson | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mark Madsen | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | |
| 2 | Grant Dawson | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Mark Madsen | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Grant Dawson | 26 of 36 | 72% | 13 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 22 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Mark Madsen | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dawson, citing his better overall striking and wrestling. He notes Madsen is an Olympic wrestler but doesn't always use it, and Dawson has takedowns in every fight. He thinks the extra week of preparation helps Dawson. He does not bet the moneyline but considers a prop on Madsen +3.5.
Big Brady believes the line is off and Madsen is being disrespected. He highlights Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling, improved striking, and cardio, while Dawson is hittable and coming in on short notice. He expects Madsen to keep the fight on the feet, stuff takedowns, and out-strike Dawson to win a decision.
Cody picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, but is on the fence. He notes that Dawson has struggled against strong grapplers, like Leo Santos (close fight) and Ricky Glenn (gassed and got a 10-8 round). Madsen has superior wrestling and could be the one getting takedowns and grinding on Dawson. Cody points out that Madsen's fight against Vince Pichel was close, and he thinks Madsen could win a tight decision by mixing in takedowns and using his jab and leg kicks, as he did against Clay Guida. He sees this as a dog or pass spot.
Daniel Levi picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, citing his top control and ability to neutralize Grant Dawson's guard pulls. He notes Dawson's suspect gas tank in later rounds, as seen in the Rick Glenn fight, and believes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and slightly better striking pop can secure a win. He is not super convicted but likes the dog odds.
The host favors Dawson due to youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He notes Madsen's improved striking but believes Dawson's wrestling and BJJ will be too much. He expects Dawson to mix output on the feet with grappling, potentially getting a late finish or decision. He sees Dawson as parlay material at -230.
Paul is also on the fence but picks Madsen for the show. He argues that Madsen could be live because MMA judging often rewards control time, as seen in the Pichel fight where Madsen got the decision despite being outstruck. In the Apex, Madsen can lay on top and tick away the clock. He thinks Dawson should win, but Madsen's style could lead to a close decision. Paul considers it a dog or pass spot.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing Madsen's close wins and age (38). He believes Dawson's unorthodox striking and kicks will give Madsen problems, and that Madsen won't be able to take him down. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting the age difference favors the younger fighter.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Grant Dawson very confidently, highlighting his relentless wrestling and grappling. He notes that Bobby Green has abandoned his wrestling, making him one-dimensional and easy to take down. Dawson will likely ride out a boring wet blanket win. Angelo suggests Dawson can be parlayed.
Big Brady is confident in Grant Dawson, citing his recent improvements since moving to ATT and his dominant performance against Damir Ismagulov. He believes Dawson's wrestling and grappling will be too much for Bobby Green, who he thinks will not be able to stuff takedowns. He acknowledges Dawson's past cardio issues but thinks he has improved and will finish the fight before the fourth round, predicting a second-round submission.
Cody picks Grant Dawson, citing his improved cardio since moving to ATT, his wrestling ability, and his success against similar opponents like Damir Ismagulov. He notes that Bobby Green's takedown defense is good but hasn't been tested by elite wrestlers, and that Dawson's pressure and top control should be decisive. He acknowledges the line is high but believes Dawson is coming into his own.
Daniel Levi picks Bobby Green as a +325 underdog. He argues that Grant Dawson is one-dimensional, relying solely on grappling, while Bobby Green can grapple, strike, and has experience. He notes that Dawson's striking is a C-minus and that Green has never been dominated on the ground except by Islam Makhachev, who is on another level. Levi also questions Dawson's price at -425, pointing out that he was only -200 against Mark Madsen. He trusts his gut that Green can compete and is willing to take a one-unit shot.
Lucrative James picks Dawson to win by TKO, liking the +550 for Dawson by KO. He thinks the fight won't go five rounds and likes the under 4.5 rounds at -230. He believes Dawson will get top position and unleash ground and pound, as seen in past fights. He notes Green has good submission defense but Dawson's wrestling is overwhelming.
Dawson has a clear grappling advantage and should be able to take Green down and control him. Green has poor takedown defense and Dawson has shown improved cardio. Dawson likely grinds out a decision win, as Green is tough to finish. The over 4.5 rounds and Dawson by decision are good prop plays. I'm not hot on the moneyline but expect Dawson to win.
Paul is tempted by Bobby Green at +320, noting that Green is difficult to take down and that Dawson's striking volume is low. He suggests Green could win by decision and that the value is appealing, but he is not fully committed. He mentions that if the number climbs, he might put a little on Green.
The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson over Bobby Green, predicting a rear-naked choke in round three. He believes Dawson is improving, coming into his prime at 29, and training at ATT. He notes Green is 37 and giving up reach, and that a full grappling camp for an older fighter risks injury. He thinks Dawson's elusiveness on the feet will allow him to time takedowns and land shots, unlike Green's previous opponents who charged forward. He references Jared Gordon's success by being on the back foot against Green.
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