vs
+155 -150
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - JJ Aldrich
3.96 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.32 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
67.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa
2.9 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.39 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.85 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
JJ Aldrich
Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1400
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
FanDuel +190
Montana De La Rosa
Moneyline
BetRivers -150
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1100
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
BetRivers +135
JJ Aldrich - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · Apr 18, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 50 of 149 33% 52 of 154 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:44
Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 70 of 230 30% 73 of 233 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 7 of 43 16% 9 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:44
Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 21 of 54 38% 23 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 46 34% 16 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 21 of 88 23% 22 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 60 45% 27 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jamey-Lyn Horth 0 28 of 88 31% 28 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 50 of 149 33% 35 of 127 5 of 8 10 of 14 50 of 149 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamey-Lyn Horth 70 of 230 30% 28 of 158 25 of 48 17 of 24 70 of 230 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 7 of 43 16% 5 of 38 0 of 0 2 of 5 7 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamey-Lyn Horth 21 of 54 38% 11 of 33 8 of 15 2 of 6 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 JJ Aldrich 16 of 46 34% 11 of 39 2 of 3 3 of 4 16 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamey-Lyn Horth 21 of 88 23% 7 of 67 5 of 10 9 of 11 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 60 45% 19 of 50 3 of 5 5 of 5 27 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jamey-Lyn Horth 28 of 88 31% 10 of 58 12 of 23 6 of 7 28 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Angelo picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her power, range control, and higher fight IQ. He notes that JJ Aldrich is coming off a layoff and was never dangerous, and that Horth's takedown defense is a concern but JJ is not a strong wrestler. He expects Horth to win a shutout decision.

"This should be Jamie Lynn Horth. It should be. Like we have a lot of Canadians on this card for obvious reasons. Some of them have good matchups and some of them absolutely don't."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her size, strength, and physicality. He believes Horth will win in the clinch and grind out a close split decision, despite Aldrich having better striking at distance. He expects an unexciting fight.

split decision
"Give me Jamie Lynn Horth to win a very close split decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Jamey-Lyn Horth

Cody picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her physical strength and ability to pressure. He notes that JJ Aldrich has mental toughness issues and tends to fade when pressured. He expects Horth to win by decision or late stoppage.

"I actually just got to take Horth to out muscle her, get her up against the cage, work her a little bit, land the bigger, more impactful blows."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich because she is a much better technician with faster hands and superior skills everywhere. He notes that Horth is not the kind of athlete that beats Aldrich, and Aldrich has beaten similar fighters like Jillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos. However, he expresses concern that Aldrich's tendency to abandon what works could make the fight closer than it should be.

Horth opened at -300, now -160; Aldrich opened at +250, now +140; Connor notes the odds are disrespectful to Aldrich
"I'm going to pick Aldrich just because like I said, this is not the level of athlete that Aldrich tends to lose to."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Apr 18, 2026 (fight day)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich is the better fighter everywhere: more technical boxing, southpaw stance, improved takedown defense, and better MMA grappling. Horth has home advantage but poor fight IQ and is an inexperienced striker. Aldrich's main issue is putting her stamp on rounds, but she should do enough to win a close decision. The odds are off; Aldrich should be at least 50%.

plus 3.5 on Aldrich at 3.80; fight likely goes to decision
"I do think Aldrich is a very good bet here. For me, at worst, this fight is 50/50."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

James picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He thinks Aldrich's boxing and takedown defense will keep the fight competitive, and that Horth's advantages are overstated. He predicts a decision win.

"I'll pick JJ Aldridge cuz I'm a sports bet... JJ Aldridge to get this one via decision as another underdog is my pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The host thinks Aldrich is the superior striker technically and has a strength of schedule advantage. He believes she will land more effective shots and withstand Horton's power. He notes that Horton throws with more power, which gives him pause, but sees value on Aldrich as a live underdog. He predicts Aldrich by decision.

"I still believe that there is good enough value here on Aldrich with her strength of schedule, her crisp boxing, her ability to withstand damage. I think she'll be able to land more effective shots here against Horton, and I …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks JJ Aldrich as a slight underdog, citing her experience and plus money. He notes that both fighters are similar but Aldrich has fought better competition. He expects a close decision and likes the value on Aldrich.

"I'd rather have the plus money on on on Aldrich who has frankly fought way way more competition."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Aldrich is a good technician and solid grappler who has beaten better fighters than Horth. He notes that Horth's best win is over Vanessa Demopoulos, while Aldrich has wins over better competition. He also points out that Horth is not a reckless fighter like Andrea Lee, so Aldrich may not get easy counters, but she should still win handily.

Horth opened at -300, now -160; Aldrich opened at +250, now +140; Zane calls the odds 'disrespectful'
"I'm going to pick Aldrich just because like I said, this is not the level of athlete that Aldrich tends to lose to."
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 53 of 175 30% 66 of 192 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 74 of 137 54% 77 of 142 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 43 48% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
2 Andrea Lee 0 15 of 58 25% 18 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Andrea Lee 0 20 of 60 33% 30 of 74 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 28 of 48 58% 29 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 53 of 175 30% 13 of 109 25 of 44 15 of 22 52 of 174 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 74 of 137 54% 54 of 114 10 of 13 10 of 10 68 of 130 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 18 of 57 31% 1 of 32 8 of 12 9 of 13 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Andrea Lee 15 of 58 25% 3 of 35 6 of 14 6 of 9 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 25 of 46 54% 17 of 37 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Andrea Lee 20 of 60 33% 9 of 42 11 of 18 0 of 0 19 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 28 of 48 58% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 25 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.

Value bet at +163; do not bet heavily
"Andrea Lee at plus 163 are decent odds like this is pretty good ODS there's some good value there and it might be worth a step"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.

Aldrich by split decision
"I'm going to pick JJ Aldridge and I'm going to take Aldridge to win probably by a split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.

"I have to lean with the Aldrich side as I believe that she can go out there and utilize her striking approach to nullify the kickboxing of Lee shut down the grappling that Lee might might look to initiate and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.

"I'm gonna go with JJ Aldridge over Andrea Lee... she's a little bit more well-rounded than Andrea Lee and she'll probably be able to get a few takedowns in this fight."
LOSS vs Veronica Hardy
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Veronica Hardy 0 27 of 63 42% 38 of 76 0 of 2 0% 0 0 5:09
JJ Aldrich 0 36 of 78 46% 69 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Veronica Hardy 0 9 of 24 37% 10 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:34
JJ Aldrich 0 14 of 24 58% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Veronica Hardy 0 8 of 18 44% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
JJ Aldrich 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Veronica Hardy 0 10 of 21 47% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
JJ Aldrich 0 7 of 19 36% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Veronica Hardy 27 of 63 42% 19 of 51 8 of 11 0 of 1 15 of 47 8 of 9 4 of 7
JJ Aldrich 36 of 78 46% 22 of 60 3 of 6 11 of 12 30 of 68 6 of 9 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Veronica Hardy 9 of 24 37% 8 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 4 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 14 of 24 58% 10 of 19 0 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Veronica Hardy 8 of 18 44% 5 of 14 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 15 of 35 42% 10 of 28 2 of 3 3 of 4 12 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Veronica Hardy 10 of 21 47% 6 of 14 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
JJ Aldrich 7 of 19 36% 2 of 13 1 of 2 4 of 4 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, citing her improved striking and takedown defense in her last two fights. He notes she has an experience edge and a willingness to move forward. He acknowledges Veronica Hardy's technical striking and wrestling but believes Aldrich is more well-rounded. He also bets the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"the slight lean is going to be JJ Aldrich"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Big Brady picks Veronica Hardy because she is younger and has shown improvement since her layoff, looking like a completely different fighter. He notes that Hardy beat Juliana Miller decisively and had a competitive split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth. However, he acknowledges the fight is extremely close and expects it to go to a split decision, with the judges being unreliable. He prefers Hardy's upside over Aldridge's decent but limited game.

"as far as a pick I'm going to go Hardy just because she's younger I think she's going to be more likely to be making improvements"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Cody picks Hardy, citing her improvements since marrying Dan Hardy. He notes that she has shown a well-rounded game, including takedowns and smart game plans. He believes she can mix in takedowns to keep Aldrich guessing and outwork her on the feet. Cody also mentions that Hardy trained at Renzo Gracie's for this camp, indicating a focus on grappling. He expects Hardy to win a competitive decision.

"I think Veronica Hardy keeps the momentum going keeps the win streak going"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Daniel Vreeland picks Veronica Hardy, noting her improvements in strength and conditioning and her ability to get back up from bottom. He believes Hardy has leveled up, while JJ Aldrich has remained the same. He predicts a decision win for Hardy, though he doesn't like the short price.

by decision
"I'm going to go Veronica Hardy to win this decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

The host leans Hardy due to her movement and speed, which will allow her to land effective damage in the first 6-7 minutes. He notes that Aldrich is not as aggressive as Hardy's previous opponent, allowing Hardy to dictate range. He expects Hardy to win on the scorecards, though Aldrich's countering ability could catch up later. The pick is a lean, not a strong bet.

"I'm going to lean Hardy here and I think we see her go out there touch up JJ Aldrich over the course of 15 minutes and win this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Veronica Hardy

Paul picks Hardy, noting that she was his first bet of the week. He highlights her takedown game and improved grappling since her return. He thinks Aldrich's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Hardy can exploit it. Paul also notes that Hardy's striking is competitive and that the threat of takedowns will slow Aldrich's volume. He is confident in Hardy.

"Hardy was the first bet that I made this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Veronica Hardy, citing Aldrich's superior competition, size, reach, and aggression. He notes Hardy's recent wins came against lower-level opponents and that Aldrich is a career fighter with more to prove. He also mentions Aldrich's takedown defense and physicality in the clinch as key factors.

"I'm actually going to go against Veronica Hardy here... I think JJ Aldridge is a step above her recent competition."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 67 of 204 32% 70 of 209 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 65 of 135 48% 66 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 19 of 55 34% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 63 33% 23 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 26 of 56 46% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 67 of 204 32% 41 of 172 13 of 16 13 of 16 59 of 184 8 of 20 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 65 of 135 48% 55 of 122 9 of 11 1 of 2 58 of 124 7 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 19 of 55 34% 14 of 48 0 of 2 5 of 5 17 of 49 2 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 19 of 35 54% 18 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 JJ Aldrich 21 of 63 33% 10 of 49 7 of 8 4 of 6 19 of 56 2 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 86 31% 17 of 75 6 of 6 4 of 5 23 of 79 4 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 4 of 5 0 of 0 24 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.

Bet 0.5 units at +135; line movement noted
"I put a half a unit on Montana DEA Rosa at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.

decision win for Montana De La Rosa
"I do lean the Montana de la Roa side here I liked her a lot more at at plus money because at the end of the day I do think this is going to be a pretty close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.

"final verdict would be Montana Del Rosa... she probably makes this dirty again in Aldridge and wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.

notes that those who got Montana at plus money made the right play; suggests hedging with Aldrich plus money
"my pure pick is Montana De la Rosa"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Montana De La Rosa

Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.

"I lean Montana de Roa the reason is because I've seen JJ Aldridge kind of flake a few times now... I do think a physical girl can make a flake"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.

"give me Aldridge to go out there land more damage to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.

"Montana De la Rosa for me as well... likely wins by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'

"I'm gonna go with Montana De la Rosa here I do believe that she's somewhat of an underrated female fighter"
WIN vs Liang Na
TKO (punches and elbows) R2 4:49 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 41 26% 27 of 61 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:38
Liang Na 0 47 of 65 72% 68 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 1 5:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 7 of 28 25% 21 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:56
Liang Na 0 11 of 20 55% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
2 JJ Aldrich 0 4 of 13 30% 6 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:42
Liang Na 0 36 of 45 80% 50 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 11 of 41 26% 7 of 30 3 of 8 1 of 3 9 of 36 2 of 5 0 of 0
Liang Na 47 of 65 72% 46 of 63 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 1 of 2 37 of 45
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 7 of 28 25% 6 of 21 1 of 5 0 of 2 5 of 23 2 of 5 0 of 0
Liang Na 11 of 20 55% 10 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 5
2 JJ Aldrich 4 of 13 30% 1 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Liang Na 36 of 45 80% 36 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 34 of 40
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo states that JJ Aldrich is better everywhere but expresses frustration with her last performance against Ariane Lipski, which cost him a bet. He sarcastically considers betting on Liang out of spite but ultimately acknowledges Aldrich should win. He does not recommend betting on Aldrich due to the poor value and his personal distrust.

"JJ's gonna win this fight she's literally better everywhere but she's dead to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is a fan of Liang Na but acknowledges her flaws: she gasses out quickly, has poor durability, and quits when tired. He expects JJ Aldrich to weather an early storm and then take over as Liang fades. He predicts Aldrich will win by second-round knockout due to exhaustion, as Liang will be unable to continue.

second round knockout due to exhaustion
"I think JJ Aldrich wins by by second round knockout due to exhaustion"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, noting her experience and level of competition. He expects Liang to gas out after an early flurry, leading to a finish. Cody likes Aldrich inside the distance at minus 145.

Aldrich inside the distance -145
"this is a a good TKO spot for JJ Aldridge so I think she finishes inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Daniel picks JJ Aldrich, stating that she should win easily against a lower-level opponent. He notes that Liang Na is not UFC caliber, with poor striking and chin. However, he refuses to lay the heavy price, calling it a pass. He is confident Aldrich wins but sees no betting value.

"I think JJ should should win this fight as the line in the case but you will not catch me dead laying no chalk on JJ Aldrich in a UFC fight period"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
JJ Aldrich

James is confident JJ Aldrich wins, citing her superior striking and Liang Na's lack of UFC-level success. He notes Liang Na has been finished by strikes in both UFC fights and has only one round of cardio. He predicts Aldrich will piece her up on the feet and likely get a finish, possibly in round three. However, he does not bet on the fight due to the short odds and Aldrich's lack of finishing history.

JJ Aldrich in round 3 mentioned as a sneaky prop; over 2.5 rounds at +160 mentioned but not bet
"I do think JJ Aldridge gets to finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The host describes Liang Na as a 'die or get carried out' fighter who leaves herself open with wide looping shots and has poor takedown defense. JJ Aldrich is the far more technical striker and the host expects her to anticipate takedowns, counter effectively, and find a knockout. The host notes Aldrich hasn't finished in 7-8 years but believes this matchup is perfect for her to get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

under 2.5 rounds
"I expect her to stop the takedowns utilize her full work and her combinations to open up the Striking and eventually find that knockout over Liang."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting Liang's poor UFC performances and one-dimensional style. He expects Aldrich to survive the early storm and win by decision or late finish. Paul is not interested in the price but sees Aldrich as a safe pick.

Aldrich by KO/TKO
"Aldrich though she's not an early finisher typically it's like this is the stylistic matchup for you to get the job done early"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Liang Na, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Aldrich's high-level experience in the UFC since 2016 with wins over known fighters like Julian Robertson and Courtney Casey. He dismisses Liang Na as simply not good, having lost to lower-level opponents. He emphasizes Aldrich's superior level of competition.

"I'm gonna go with JJ Aldridge over naliang ... she's just a different level of women's fighter than Nal Yang is"
LOSS vs Ariane da Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane da Silva 0 101 of 204 49% 113 of 216 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 49 of 99 49% 56 of 106 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 67 52% 40 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 11 of 20 55% 14 of 23 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Ariane da Silva 0 35 of 73 47% 35 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 20 of 39 51% 20 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ariane da Silva 0 31 of 64 48% 38 of 71 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 40 45% 22 of 44 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane da Silva 101 of 204 49% 47 of 134 42 of 56 12 of 14 77 of 176 24 of 28 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 49 of 99 49% 42 of 92 4 of 4 3 of 3 45 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane da Silva 35 of 67 52% 17 of 42 15 of 20 3 of 5 22 of 53 13 of 14 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane da Silva 35 of 73 47% 15 of 48 15 of 20 5 of 5 30 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 20 of 39 51% 18 of 37 1 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ariane da Silva 31 of 64 48% 15 of 44 12 of 16 4 of 4 25 of 55 6 of 9 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 18 of 40 45% 15 of 37 2 of 2 1 of 1 17 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.

1.5 unit bet at -220
"I've got a one and a half unit bet that's a lot of money on JJ Aldridge but I got a one and a half unit bet at minus 220. I'm just very confident in her ability to go out …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.

win by TKO in round 3
"I like Aldrich to have success in the Striking mixing the takedowns win minutes on the on the feet on the mat and I'm gonna say Aldridge eventually gets a TKO here late late fight uh late third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.

"we're gonna take JJ Aldridge she'll probably be somewhere around like the second or third lot I don't want her on the second"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.

Aldrich opened at unknown, now -380 to -450; Lipski +285 to +350. Connor says the odds feel appropriate.
"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.

"I think a combination of aldrich's output footwork and ability to stay safe at distance is going to overwhelm lipsky here and I think Aldrich boxes her way to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.

under 2.5 rounds +165
"JJ Aldridge can win this fight standing she can win this fight to the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.

by decision
"I'm definitely gonna side with JJ Aldridge here being the better more well-rounded fighter overall and a bit tougher"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.

"Aldrich is just too good. Lipsky has yet to beat anybody at this level who even approaches JJ Aldrich's level of ability."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 48 of 100 48% 68 of 121 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:56
JJ Aldrich 0 32 of 71 45% 38 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 23 of 58 39% 27 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 43 37% 21 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 42 59% 41 of 59 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:13
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 28 57% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 48 of 100 48% 29 of 76 11 of 11 8 of 13 46 of 96 2 of 4 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 32 of 71 45% 29 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 23 of 58 39% 13 of 44 7 of 7 3 of 7 22 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 43 37% 15 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 42 59% 16 of 32 4 of 4 5 of 6 24 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 28 57% 14 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.

may throw a moneyline bet on Blanchfield, waiting to see line movement
"I think it's more of the same from aaron here i think she dominates in a heavy grappling win and betting wise i may throw a money line bet on aaron"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.

Blanchfield by decision
"I like blanchfield here do I like the minor 600 no I don't but I do think she is one of the safer picks as far as uh picking a win on this card see me blanchfield give me blanchfield …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.

Blanchfield by decision
"i'm a bland shield supporter through and through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.

"i think that aaron blanchfield's got the skills to pay the bills so i'm gonna go with aaron"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.

Blanchfield by decision (minus 138)
"the bet that i did make this week was blanchfield by decision minus 138."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.

Dislikes the odds, says 'the odds are really annoying'
"i am going to go there in blanchfield but i don't like the odds the odds are really annoying on a lot of fights on these cards"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 60 of 118 50% 76 of 137 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:07
Gillian Robertson 0 52 of 139 37% 67 of 154 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 57 28% 16 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 JJ Aldrich 0 23 of 44 52% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:16
Gillian Robertson 0 17 of 40 42% 19 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:24
3 JJ Aldrich 0 18 of 39 46% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Gillian Robertson 0 19 of 42 45% 32 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 60 of 118 50% 56 of 114 3 of 3 1 of 1 49 of 105 9 of 11 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 52 of 139 37% 17 of 81 18 of 36 17 of 22 45 of 131 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 19 of 35 54% 17 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 18 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 57 28% 4 of 30 4 of 16 8 of 11 16 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 JJ Aldrich 23 of 44 52% 22 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 36 7 of 8 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 17 of 40 42% 7 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 15 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 JJ Aldrich 18 of 39 46% 17 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 36 1 of 1 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 19 of 42 45% 6 of 25 7 of 11 6 of 6 14 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.

Odds comment: -150 is spot on, expects line to move
"I like jillian here and i think these minus 150 odds that the bookmakers are keeping i think those are pretty spot on"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.

"i'm actually going to take the dog here in orders to win i'm going to take her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.

Over 2.5 rounds
"i think the over over two and a half rounds is probably my favorite bet on the card"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.

"give me jj to kind of neutralize jillian and come out here and win this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 125 is mentioned as a good look.
"I still land up on the JJ Aldrich side. She she's been good to me in the past."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds
"i think the over over two and a half rounds is probably my favorite bet on the card"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.

decision or late round TKO
"i'm taking jj aldridge i'm going against a grain again here um jj aldridge i believe gets this one done she's very consistent she don't get held down by no one"
Montana De La Rosa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Luana Carolina
UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.

Solid bet; lady over is probably the way to go
"I think this is a pretty straightforward win and I think it's going to be LNA Carolina she's by far the better striker in this matchup and if she can keep this fight standing she absolutely wins"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Luana Carolina

Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.

fight goes to decision; close split decision
"I slightly got to go to the Luana Carolina side I'm going to pick her to win this fight by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.

"I believe Del Rosa's wrestling style will pay off for a year and it will start to expose the holes that are still in Lana Carolina's game look for delar Rosa to smother her with her grappling maybe open up …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luana Carolina

The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.

"I'm going to go with Lana carolina... she'll be able to win this one on the feet and she'll have more grit and heart and determination."
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:08
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 180 38% 88 of 206 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 27 of 50 54% 52 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:52
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 44 31% 17 of 49 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:10
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 68 45% 36 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 33 of 81 40% 37 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 55 41% 34 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 75 of 152 49% 37 of 109 29 of 31 9 of 12 58 of 129 13 of 16 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 70 of 180 38% 53 of 156 12 of 17 5 of 7 62 of 161 5 of 16 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 27 of 50 54% 16 of 38 10 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 31 11 of 12 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 14 of 44 31% 9 of 37 4 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 31 of 68 45% 14 of 49 11 of 12 6 of 7 30 of 65 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 33 of 81 40% 26 of 72 4 of 5 3 of 4 33 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
3 Montana De La Rosa 17 of 34 50% 7 of 22 8 of 9 2 of 3 16 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 55 41% 18 of 47 4 of 6 1 of 2 19 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.

"unless I was 100% positive that Montana Delarosa was all in on the wrestling I gotta go Andrea Lee"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.

"I'm going to take De la Rosa with little to no confidence I'm not betting on this fight and God help you if you are betting on on this fight here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.

Andrea Lee by decision
"I got Lee and then if you want to get a little spicy with it uh lee by decision she's not knocking out delar Roa she's not submitting delar Rosa so if she's going to win she's just going to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.

split decision
"I'll go Andrea Lee via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.

"I'm leaning Andrea Lee here I don't absolutely love it because if Montana does come in all in wrestling all of a sudden it's Andrew Lee laying on her back for 15 minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.

submission
"I'm going to Le Lee in this spot... I'm going to say Lee by submission she might throw something up and catch T Roa in it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.

"Lee Lee on on volume Montana Del la ro said for all of her faults she has always been incredibly durable so uh credit word credits do on that front"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.

"I'll go with Andrea Lee I think she can Implement damage more she's a more physical specimen out of the two of them"
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 67 of 204 32% 70 of 209 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 65 of 135 48% 66 of 136 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 19 of 55 34% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 19 of 35 54% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 63 33% 23 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 20 of 44 45% 20 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 86 31% 27 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 26 of 56 46% 27 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 67 of 204 32% 41 of 172 13 of 16 13 of 16 59 of 184 8 of 20 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 65 of 135 48% 55 of 122 9 of 11 1 of 2 58 of 124 7 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 19 of 55 34% 14 of 48 0 of 2 5 of 5 17 of 49 2 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 19 of 35 54% 18 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 2 16 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 JJ Aldrich 21 of 63 33% 10 of 49 7 of 8 4 of 6 19 of 56 2 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 20 of 44 45% 15 of 38 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 86 31% 17 of 75 6 of 6 4 of 5 23 of 79 4 of 7 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 26 of 56 46% 22 of 51 4 of 5 0 of 0 24 of 52 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.

Bet 0.5 units at +135; line movement noted
"I put a half a unit on Montana DEA Rosa at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.

decision win for Montana De La Rosa
"I do lean the Montana de la Roa side here I liked her a lot more at at plus money because at the end of the day I do think this is going to be a pretty close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.

"final verdict would be Montana Del Rosa... she probably makes this dirty again in Aldridge and wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.

notes that those who got Montana at plus money made the right play; suggests hedging with Aldrich plus money
"my pure pick is Montana De la Rosa"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Montana De La Rosa

Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.

"I lean Montana de Roa the reason is because I've seen JJ Aldridge kind of flake a few times now... I do think a physical girl can make a flake"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.

"give me Aldridge to go out there land more damage to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.

"Montana De la Rosa for me as well... likely wins by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'

"I'm gonna go with Montana De la Rosa here I do believe that she's somewhat of an underrated female fighter"
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:51 · UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Feb 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 10 of 13 76% 37 of 43 2 of 6 33% 1 0 5:45
Montana De La Rosa 0 5 of 11 45% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 8 87% 26 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:26
Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 8 50% 28 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 3 of 5 60% 11 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:19
Montana De La Rosa 0 1 of 3 33% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 10 of 13 76% 0 of 1 8 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 5 7 of 8 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 8 87% 0 of 1 6 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 6 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 3 of 5 60% 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I will just simply assume that she's gonna look like Tatiana Suarez and if she does she is going to get a fight where she gets to do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.

Suarez opened at -700, now -788. De La Rosa at +500 to +550. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Suarez at those wide odds due to X-factors.
"I gotta pick Tatiana Sargas I think she's gonna get the game she's gonna get the fight she wants she's gonna get the chances to take get the takedown she wants but this is all about how you know how …"
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 50 of 63 79% 80 of 101 1 of 4 25% 0 1 7:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 14 of 28 50% 41 of 57 1 of 2 50% 0 1 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 25 of 31 80% 34 of 43 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:25
Montana De La Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:51
2 Maycee Barber 0 7 of 9 77% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:06
Montana De La Rosa 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:22
3 Maycee Barber 0 18 of 23 78% 32 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:29
Montana De La Rosa 0 9 of 13 69% 21 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 50 of 63 79% 31 of 42 16 of 18 3 of 3 4 of 8 40 of 47 6 of 8
Montana De La Rosa 14 of 28 50% 7 of 19 7 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 13 10 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 25 of 31 80% 14 of 20 8 of 8 3 of 3 1 of 3 23 of 27 1 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 3 of 10 30% 0 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 6 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Maycee Barber 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 6
Montana De La Rosa 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Maycee Barber 18 of 23 78% 11 of 15 7 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 4 16 of 18 0 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 9 of 13 69% 6 of 9 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.

No bet on this fight
"i'm gonna go macy here but zero bet whatsoever there will be no money coming out of my pocket on this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 19, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.

"I'll take dela rosa to pull off the upset and I'll take her to win by a very close competitive decision mixing of the takedowns"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.

"I'm gonna take barber minus 190 again I think it's a decent enough price tag but it could be a trap price as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2022 (fight day)
Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.

Mentions a possible TKO finish for Barber.
"my biggest bet is only two units which is 400 bucks for me and that's on macy barber at minus 181."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.

"I am not playing chalk barber"
TKO (punches) R2 4:27 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Jun 05, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 29 of 55 52% 66 of 113 2 of 3 66% 0 0 6:52
Ariane da Silva 0 11 of 24 45% 37 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 4 of 23 17% 22 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:35
Ariane da Silva 0 7 of 20 35% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 25 of 32 78% 44 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
Ariane da Silva 0 4 of 4 100% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 29 of 55 52% 28 of 53 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 22 0 of 0 27 of 33
Ariane da Silva 11 of 24 45% 5 of 15 6 of 9 0 of 0 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 4 of 23 17% 3 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 2
Ariane da Silva 7 of 20 35% 2 of 12 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 25 of 32 78% 25 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 31
Ariane da Silva 4 of 4 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.

"gimme montale montana de la rosa by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.

"i think she's going to be ready for it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.

"i got montana just because of the big edge on the map"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.

De La Rosa by decision +115, De La Rosa inside distance +240
"I think montana del rosa cruises here i think she faces the least amount of resistance on this entire card"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.

"i think montana gets the takedowns here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i think montana de la rosa is going to win the duration of the fight"
Draw (majority) (28–27, 28–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mayra Bueno Silva 0 30 of 72 41% 107 of 156 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 52 of 80 65% 111 of 142 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 9 of 32 28% 27 of 50 1 of 5 20% 0 0 3:07
Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 28 60% 44 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 11 of 24 45% 45 of 61 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:04
Montana De La Rosa 0 16 of 26 61% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 0 10 of 16 62% 35 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:01
Montana De La Rosa 0 19 of 26 73% 49 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mayra Bueno Silva 30 of 72 41% 19 of 56 11 of 16 0 of 0 23 of 63 5 of 6 2 of 3
Montana De La Rosa 52 of 80 65% 28 of 53 22 of 23 2 of 4 20 of 40 29 of 36 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mayra Bueno Silva 9 of 32 28% 6 of 26 3 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 17 of 28 60% 6 of 15 10 of 10 1 of 3 5 of 13 12 of 15 0 of 0
2 Mayra Bueno Silva 11 of 24 45% 7 of 19 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 2
Montana De La Rosa 16 of 26 61% 10 of 20 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 6 3 of 4
3 Mayra Bueno Silva 10 of 16 62% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 11 4 of 4 1 of 1
Montana De La Rosa 19 of 26 73% 12 of 18 7 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 11 11 of 15 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Round 1
The last women’s match of the night comes in the featured fight slot, as two submission specialist flyweights tangle. De La Rosa (11-6, 4-3 UFC) and Bueno Silva (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will undoubtedly look to tap out the other, who combine for 13 subs in their 18 wins, all under the watchful eye of referee Jerin Valel. A touch of gloves shows a sign of respect before the showcase begins. De La Rosa reaches out a jab and gets kicked in the calf, a theme for the evening. The American lets loose a one-two, and she follows with another and lands at the end of a right hand. Silva tries to clinch up, and De La Rosa pushes her off only to get kicked in the face. The clinch ensues again, where De La Rosa attacks a single and has her neck snagged from a defensive guillotine choke. De La Rosa transitions to a double and scores the takedown, but Silva walks her way back up with ease while De La Rosa takes her back. De La Rosa looks to trip her foe down but she cannot land it, and turns it into a single only to find herself in a choke attempt. Silva grabs the fence to stop a takedown, and Valel takes a point as Silva apologizes. Right after they touch gloves, De La Rosa shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and Silva stands her up and knees her foe in the chest several times. De La Rosa kicks the chest a few times, and then fires off a pair of crescent kicks that clip off Silva’s chin. The Brazilian eats a fierce one-two, and she marches into a clinch only to wind up defending a takedown attempt. Silva protects herself with several vicious elbows and knees, and De La Rosa is forced to back away. The American sticks out a jab, and she ducks down to take the fight down. Silva nearly grabs the fence again to stay upright, and De La Rosa looks to Valel. When there is nothing done about it, De La Rosa continues her grind against the cage. Silva turns her about but gets trapped against the fence again until the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa

Round 2
The two women touch gloves, and De La Rosa reaches out with a pair of punches that land. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a head kick, and the American gathers her thoughts and tries to clinch up as Silva lands again. When Silva presses the pace, De La Rosa sells out for a takedown, only to fall to her back with butterfly hooks. Silva stands up to land a couple right hands, and De La Rosa boots her in the face with an upkick. De La Rosa threatens off her back with a triangle choke setup, but the Brazilian stands up to deliver some long punches to De La Rosa’s face. When Silva stands up, De La Rosa chops at her leg with low kicks on her side until Silva lets her back up. De La Rosa scores a side kick to the face, and she tries to counter an advancing Silva with a left hand. De La Rosa lets fly a head kick, and Silva blocks it but eats a left hand that follows. Silva replies with her own head kick, forcing De La Rosa to shoot in from a distance for a takedown. She gets stuffed, and Silva makes her pay with punches and knees. The clinch that comes from it leads to several nasty knees and elbows from Silva, and De La Rosa redoubles her effort to take the fight down. De La Rosa scoops up the leg and puts Silva on her back, where she takes the Brazilian’s back in a scramble. Silva twists and turns to get flat on her back, and De La Rosa takes full mount as she lands strikes from on top. De La Rosa uses arm-triangle choke control to keep her foe down, leading Silva to roll to her side and get hit in the side of the head. De La Rosa lines up the arm-triangle choke, and Silva has her arm trapped and is absorbing punishment. De La Rosa sets up the arm-triangle choke again, only to bail on it to land punches in mount to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa

Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and De La Rosa once more lunges to throw the first strike. Silva sits down on a pair of big head kicks, and they snap the head back but do not hurt De La Rosa. When De La Rosa comes too close, they clinch up, and Silva starts up kneeing the body and unleashing heavy elbows on the inside. De La Rosa bullies her foe into the cage wall for a single leg takedown, but the Brazilian stands her up. The American ties up the leg to try to drag Silva down, and Silva counters with a close-range choke attempt that is unsuccessful. Silva uses elbows to open up De La Rosa’s face, but De La Rosa hits a takedown. Silva springs back up to her feet and tees off on De La Rosa with a few strikes as blood flows from De La Rosa’s nose and face. De La Rosa ties up her adversary on the fence, and her face is busted up from the strikes from the Brazilian. Silva backs away around the fencing to knee De La Rosa once more, and De La Rosa changes levels low for an unsuccessful takedown. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a few sharp elbows, and De La Rosa stays tight and working the body with a few punches, De La Rosa grabs a single leg and still gets elbowed in the face. De La Rosa tries to respond with a few short knees, all while keeping Silva’s left leg in the air. Silva gains space and marches down her opponent, but De La Rosa hits a takedown in the center of the cage. De La Rosa sits down in her opponent’s guard, as there are few seconds left in the fight. Silva throws a few elbows off her back, but De La Rosa drops down punches as the clock hits zero. The scorecards could be all over the map from this grueling fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)

The Official Result
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva is ruled a Majority Draw (27-28, 28-28, 28-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.

decision win for De La Rosa
"i'm actually going to take the dog here in montana de la rosa to grind out a decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.

"I think the more damaging shots are going to be landed by maira buenos silva... ultimately i'm going to go with my ira bueno silva to win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.

"i do lean with the dog uh odds on de la rosa here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Mayra Bueno Silva

The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.

submission win, armbar, first round
"i think i'll go with a submission win for may roberto silva here she's always getting submissions"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · Sep 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 82 of 140 58% 91 of 150 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 85 of 215 39% 88 of 220 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 23 of 44 52% 26 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Montana De La Rosa 0 20 of 67 29% 20 of 69 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
2 Viviane Araújo 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 34 of 75 45% 34 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 23 of 42 54% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 73 42% 34 of 76 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 82 of 140 58% 57 of 113 12 of 13 13 of 14 80 of 137 2 of 3 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 85 of 215 39% 57 of 177 12 of 21 16 of 17 76 of 202 9 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 23 of 44 52% 13 of 33 4 of 5 6 of 6 22 of 42 1 of 2 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 20 of 67 29% 14 of 61 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 64 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 36 of 54 66% 24 of 41 6 of 6 6 of 7 36 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 34 of 75 45% 20 of 57 6 of 9 8 of 9 33 of 73 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 23 of 42 54% 20 of 39 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Montana De La Rosa 31 of 73 42% 23 of 59 3 of 9 5 of 5 26 of 65 5 of 8 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.

Araújo by decision
"i do like arujo to win this fight i think she's the better overall fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.

"i'm going to lean with vivian arujo to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.

"i like de la rosa's chances here as an underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.

third round finish by submission or tko
"vivian arujo is going to get the job done she's lost a better competition than montana de la rosa has lost to"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2023 (8 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.

Bet 0.5 units at +135; line movement noted
"I put a half a unit on Montana DEA Rosa at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.

decision win for Montana De La Rosa
"I do lean the Montana de la Roa side here I liked her a lot more at at plus money because at the end of the day I do think this is going to be a pretty close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.

"final verdict would be Montana Del Rosa... she probably makes this dirty again in Aldridge and wins"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.

notes that those who got Montana at plus money made the right play; suggests hedging with Aldrich plus money
"my pure pick is Montana De la Rosa"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2023 (fight day)
Montana De La Rosa

Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.

"I lean Montana de Roa the reason is because I've seen JJ Aldridge kind of flake a few times now... I do think a physical girl can make a flake"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2023 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.

"give me Aldridge to go out there land more damage to win this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.

"Montana De la Rosa for me as well... likely wins by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'

"I'm gonna go with Montana De la Rosa here I do believe that she's somewhat of an underrated female fighter"