Career Averages - JJ Aldrich
Career Averages - Montana De La Rosa
JJ Aldrich
Montana De La Rosa
JJ Aldrich - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 50 of 149 | 33% | 52 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 70 of 230 | 30% | 73 of 233 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 43 | 16% | 9 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 23 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 22 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 28 of 88 | 31% | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 50 of 149 | 33% | 35 of 127 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 14 | 50 of 149 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 70 of 230 | 30% | 28 of 158 | 25 of 48 | 17 of 24 | 70 of 230 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 43 | 16% | 5 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 54 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 16 of 46 | 34% | 11 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 88 | 23% | 7 of 67 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 60 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 28 of 88 | 31% | 10 of 58 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her power, range control, and higher fight IQ. He notes that JJ Aldrich is coming off a layoff and was never dangerous, and that Horth's takedown defense is a concern but JJ is not a strong wrestler. He expects Horth to win a shutout decision.
Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her size, strength, and physicality. He believes Horth will win in the clinch and grind out a close split decision, despite Aldrich having better striking at distance. He expects an unexciting fight.
Cody picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her physical strength and ability to pressure. He notes that JJ Aldrich has mental toughness issues and tends to fade when pressured. He expects Horth to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor picks Aldrich because she is a much better technician with faster hands and superior skills everywhere. He notes that Horth is not the kind of athlete that beats Aldrich, and Aldrich has beaten similar fighters like Jillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos. However, he expresses concern that Aldrich's tendency to abandon what works could make the fight closer than it should be.
Aldrich is the better fighter everywhere: more technical boxing, southpaw stance, improved takedown defense, and better MMA grappling. Horth has home advantage but poor fight IQ and is an inexperienced striker. Aldrich's main issue is putting her stamp on rounds, but she should do enough to win a close decision. The odds are off; Aldrich should be at least 50%.
James picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He thinks Aldrich's boxing and takedown defense will keep the fight competitive, and that Horth's advantages are overstated. He predicts a decision win.
The host thinks Aldrich is the superior striker technically and has a strength of schedule advantage. He believes she will land more effective shots and withstand Horton's power. He notes that Horton throws with more power, which gives him pause, but sees value on Aldrich as a live underdog. He predicts Aldrich by decision.
Paul picks JJ Aldrich as a slight underdog, citing her experience and plus money. He notes that both fighters are similar but Aldrich has fought better competition. He expects a close decision and likes the value on Aldrich.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Aldrich is a good technician and solid grappler who has beaten better fighters than Horth. He notes that Horth's best win is over Vanessa Demopoulos, while Aldrich has wins over better competition. He also points out that Horth is not a reckless fighter like Andrea Lee, so Aldrich may not get easy counters, but she should still win handily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 38 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 69 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 51 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 47 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 36 of 78 | 46% | 22 of 60 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 30 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 9 of 24 | 37% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 15 of 35 | 42% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, citing her improved striking and takedown defense in her last two fights. He notes she has an experience edge and a willingness to move forward. He acknowledges Veronica Hardy's technical striking and wrestling but believes Aldrich is more well-rounded. He also bets the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Veronica Hardy because she is younger and has shown improvement since her layoff, looking like a completely different fighter. He notes that Hardy beat Juliana Miller decisively and had a competitive split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth. However, he acknowledges the fight is extremely close and expects it to go to a split decision, with the judges being unreliable. He prefers Hardy's upside over Aldridge's decent but limited game.
Cody picks Hardy, citing her improvements since marrying Dan Hardy. He notes that she has shown a well-rounded game, including takedowns and smart game plans. He believes she can mix in takedowns to keep Aldrich guessing and outwork her on the feet. Cody also mentions that Hardy trained at Renzo Gracie's for this camp, indicating a focus on grappling. He expects Hardy to win a competitive decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Veronica Hardy, noting her improvements in strength and conditioning and her ability to get back up from bottom. He believes Hardy has leveled up, while JJ Aldrich has remained the same. He predicts a decision win for Hardy, though he doesn't like the short price.
The host leans Hardy due to her movement and speed, which will allow her to land effective damage in the first 6-7 minutes. He notes that Aldrich is not as aggressive as Hardy's previous opponent, allowing Hardy to dictate range. He expects Hardy to win on the scorecards, though Aldrich's countering ability could catch up later. The pick is a lean, not a strong bet.
Paul picks Hardy, noting that she was his first bet of the week. He highlights her takedown game and improved grappling since her return. He thinks Aldrich's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Hardy can exploit it. Paul also notes that Hardy's striking is competitive and that the threat of takedowns will slow Aldrich's volume. He is confident in Hardy.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Veronica Hardy, citing Aldrich's superior competition, size, reach, and aggression. He notes Hardy's recent wins came against lower-level opponents and that Aldrich is a career fighter with more to prove. He also mentions Aldrich's takedown defense and physicality in the clinch as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 27 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 5:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 36 of 45 | 80% | 50 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 41 | 26% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 47 of 65 | 72% | 46 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 37 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 28 | 25% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 11 of 20 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 36 of 45 | 80% | 36 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 40 |
Angelo states that JJ Aldrich is better everywhere but expresses frustration with her last performance against Ariane Lipski, which cost him a bet. He sarcastically considers betting on Liang out of spite but ultimately acknowledges Aldrich should win. He does not recommend betting on Aldrich due to the poor value and his personal distrust.
Big Brady is a fan of Liang Na but acknowledges her flaws: she gasses out quickly, has poor durability, and quits when tired. He expects JJ Aldrich to weather an early storm and then take over as Liang fades. He predicts Aldrich will win by second-round knockout due to exhaustion, as Liang will be unable to continue.
Cody picks Aldrich, noting her experience and level of competition. He expects Liang to gas out after an early flurry, leading to a finish. Cody likes Aldrich inside the distance at minus 145.
Daniel picks JJ Aldrich, stating that she should win easily against a lower-level opponent. He notes that Liang Na is not UFC caliber, with poor striking and chin. However, he refuses to lay the heavy price, calling it a pass. He is confident Aldrich wins but sees no betting value.
James is confident JJ Aldrich wins, citing her superior striking and Liang Na's lack of UFC-level success. He notes Liang Na has been finished by strikes in both UFC fights and has only one round of cardio. He predicts Aldrich will piece her up on the feet and likely get a finish, possibly in round three. However, he does not bet on the fight due to the short odds and Aldrich's lack of finishing history.
The host describes Liang Na as a 'die or get carried out' fighter who leaves herself open with wide looping shots and has poor takedown defense. JJ Aldrich is the far more technical striker and the host expects her to anticipate takedowns, counter effectively, and find a knockout. The host notes Aldrich hasn't finished in 7-8 years but believes this matchup is perfect for her to get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting Liang's poor UFC performances and one-dimensional style. He expects Aldrich to survive the early storm and win by decision or late finish. Paul is not interested in the price but sees Aldrich as a safe pick.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Liang Na, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Aldrich's high-level experience in the UFC since 2016 with wins over known fighters like Julian Robertson and Courtney Casey. He dismisses Liang Na as simply not good, having lost to lower-level opponents. He emphasizes Aldrich's superior level of competition.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 48 of 100 | 48% | 68 of 121 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 38 of 77 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 41 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 48 of 100 | 48% | 29 of 76 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 46 of 96 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 32 of 71 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 23 of 58 | 39% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 22 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 43 | 37% | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 25 of 42 | 59% | 16 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.
Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.
Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.
Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 60 of 118 | 50% | 76 of 137 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:07 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 52 of 139 | 37% | 67 of 154 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:16 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 60 of 118 | 50% | 56 of 114 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 105 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 52 of 139 | 37% | 17 of 81 | 18 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 45 of 131 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 57 | 28% | 4 of 30 | 4 of 16 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 23 of 44 | 52% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 17 of 40 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 18 of 39 | 46% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 19 of 42 | 45% | 6 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.
Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.
Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.
Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.
Montana De La Rosa - Fight History
Angelo picks Luana Carolina, citing her superior striking and solid takedown defense (74%). He believes she can keep the fight standing and outpoint Montana De La Rosa, who relies on wrestling. He notes that Carolina is used to opponents trying to take her down and sees her as a solid bet, possibly worth a stab.
Big Brady leans toward Luana Carolina, impressed by her takedown defense. He notes that Montana De La Rosa will try to wrestle, but if she can't get takedowns, Carolina is the better striker. He expects a close split decision.
The host expects De La Rosa's wrestling style to pay off and expose holes in Luana Carolina's game. He looks for De La Rosa to smother her with grappling, possibly opening a submission opportunity, but primarily controlling the fight and winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Luana Carolina over Montana De La Rosa. He notes that Montana has had takedowns but hasn't established dominant control, while Luana will win on the feet with more grit and determination. He also mentions a psychological edge: Luana will be jealous of Montana's looks and fight with rage. He predicts a split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 75 of 152 | 49% | 115 of 201 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 2 | 2:08 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 70 of 180 | 38% | 88 of 206 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 27 of 50 | 54% | 52 of 80 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:52 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 17 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 68 | 45% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 33 of 81 | 40% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 34 of 71 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 75 of 152 | 49% | 37 of 109 | 29 of 31 | 9 of 12 | 58 of 129 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 70 of 180 | 38% | 53 of 156 | 12 of 17 | 5 of 7 | 62 of 161 | 5 of 16 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 27 of 50 | 54% | 16 of 38 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 31 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 7 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 44 | 31% | 9 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 36 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 68 | 45% | 14 of 49 | 11 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 65 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 33 of 81 | 40% | 26 of 72 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 34 | 50% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.
Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.
Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.
Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.
Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.
Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.
The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 37 of 43 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 5:45 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 26 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 28 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatiana Suarez | 10 of 13 | 76% | 0 of 1 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatiana Suarez | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatiana Suarez | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Suarez because De La Rosa will let her wrestle. He notes that De La Rosa is a competitive fighter but lacks strategy, and if Suarez is the same fighter, she will do Tatiana Suarez things for as long as she is able. Connor also mentions that De La Rosa's tight pocket boxing style gives opportunities for opponents to get in on her hips, which Suarez can exploit.
Zane picks Suarez, assuming she will look like her old self and dominate with wrestling. He notes that De La Rosa is a classic test fighter who will accept whatever fight her opponent wants, and if Suarez can bring physical dominance, she will win. However, he acknowledges major X-factors: Suarez hasn't fought in almost four years, has neck and knee injuries that could affect her wrestling, and her striking is poor. Still, he believes she will get the takedowns she wants.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 50 of 63 | 79% | 80 of 101 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 7:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 41 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 34 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 16 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 2:22 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 0 | 18 of 23 | 78% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maycee Barber | 50 of 63 | 79% | 31 of 42 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 40 of 47 | 6 of 8 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 14 of 28 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maycee Barber | 25 of 31 | 80% | 14 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 27 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maycee Barber | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Maycee Barber | 18 of 23 | 78% | 11 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 9 of 13 | 69% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.
Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.
Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.
The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.
Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 66 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:52 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 37 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 22 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 25 of 32 | 78% | 44 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana De La Rosa | 29 of 55 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 33 |
| Ariane da Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 5 of 15 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montana De La Rosa | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ariane da Silva | 7 of 20 | 35% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Montana De La Rosa | 25 of 32 | 78% | 25 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 31 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady is confident in De La Rosa, citing her wrestling background and BJJ black belt. He notes Lipski has poor takedown defense (45%) and was dominated on the mat by Antonina Shevchenko, a striker. He believes De La Rosa will take Lipski down at will and submit her, as 75% of her wins are by submission. He is surprised by public betting favoring Lipski.
Cody picks De La Rosa, agreeing with Paul. He notes Lipski's takedown defense issues and that De La Rosa has been scoring takedowns in recent fights. Cody thinks De La Rosa's wrestling will be the difference. He is confident but notes the price is steep.
Daniel picks Montana De La Rosa due to her massive edge on the ground, noting that Lipski has a huge hole in her ground game and lacks toughness. He acknowledges that Montana's stand-up is not impressive and she often hangs on for dear life, but believes she will get on top, take the back, and ground-and-pound for a finish. Daniel is uncomfortable with the -300 price but still picks Montana to win via submission or TKO on the mat.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and takedown defense. Lipski has poor takedown defense and is a fish out of water on the ground. De La Rosa will grind out a decision or possibly get a late finish.
Paul picks De La Rosa, citing her wrestling base and takedown ability. He notes Lipski's poor takedown defense and that De La Rosa has been improving. Paul thinks De La Rosa can get the fight to the ground and control it. He acknowledges the price is high but sees a clear path to victory.
The Guru picks Montana De La Rosa, citing her size, youth, and experience against better competition. He thinks she has more options than Ariane Lipski, with good cardio, grappling, and stand-up. He expects a close fight but believes De La Rosa will win a 29-28 decision by grinding against the cage and landing total strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 107 of 156 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 9:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 52 of 80 | 65% | 111 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 9 of 32 | 28% | 27 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 45 of 61 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 0 | 10 of 16 | 62% | 35 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:01 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 49 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 30 of 72 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 52 of 80 | 65% | 28 of 53 | 22 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 40 | 29 of 36 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 9 of 32 | 28% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 17 of 28 | 60% | 6 of 15 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 16 of 26 | 61% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Mayra Bueno Silva | 10 of 16 | 62% | 6 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 26 | 73% | 12 of 18 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The last women’s match of the night comes in the featured fight slot, as two submission specialist flyweights tangle. De La Rosa (11-6, 4-3 UFC) and Bueno Silva (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will undoubtedly look to tap out the other, who combine for 13 subs in their 18 wins, all under the watchful eye of referee Jerin Valel. A touch of gloves shows a sign of respect before the showcase begins. De La Rosa reaches out a jab and gets kicked in the calf, a theme for the evening. The American lets loose a one-two, and she follows with another and lands at the end of a right hand. Silva tries to clinch up, and De La Rosa pushes her off only to get kicked in the face. The clinch ensues again, where De La Rosa attacks a single and has her neck snagged from a defensive guillotine choke. De La Rosa transitions to a double and scores the takedown, but Silva walks her way back up with ease while De La Rosa takes her back. De La Rosa looks to trip her foe down but she cannot land it, and turns it into a single only to find herself in a choke attempt. Silva grabs the fence to stop a takedown, and Valel takes a point as Silva apologizes. Right after they touch gloves, De La Rosa shoots for a takedown in the open cage, and Silva stands her up and knees her foe in the chest several times. De La Rosa kicks the chest a few times, and then fires off a pair of crescent kicks that clip off Silva’s chin. The Brazilian eats a fierce one-two, and she marches into a clinch only to wind up defending a takedown attempt. Silva protects herself with several vicious elbows and knees, and De La Rosa is forced to back away. The American sticks out a jab, and she ducks down to take the fight down. Silva nearly grabs the fence again to stay upright, and De La Rosa looks to Valel. When there is nothing done about it, De La Rosa continues her grind against the cage. Silva turns her about but gets trapped against the fence again until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 9-9
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 De La Rosa
Round 2
The two women touch gloves, and De La Rosa reaches out with a pair of punches that land. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a head kick, and the American gathers her thoughts and tries to clinch up as Silva lands again. When Silva presses the pace, De La Rosa sells out for a takedown, only to fall to her back with butterfly hooks. Silva stands up to land a couple right hands, and De La Rosa boots her in the face with an upkick. De La Rosa threatens off her back with a triangle choke setup, but the Brazilian stands up to deliver some long punches to De La Rosa’s face. When Silva stands up, De La Rosa chops at her leg with low kicks on her side until Silva lets her back up. De La Rosa scores a side kick to the face, and she tries to counter an advancing Silva with a left hand. De La Rosa lets fly a head kick, and Silva blocks it but eats a left hand that follows. Silva replies with her own head kick, forcing De La Rosa to shoot in from a distance for a takedown. She gets stuffed, and Silva makes her pay with punches and knees. The clinch that comes from it leads to several nasty knees and elbows from Silva, and De La Rosa redoubles her effort to take the fight down. De La Rosa scoops up the leg and puts Silva on her back, where she takes the Brazilian’s back in a scramble. Silva twists and turns to get flat on her back, and De La Rosa takes full mount as she lands strikes from on top. De La Rosa uses arm-triangle choke control to keep her foe down, leading Silva to roll to her side and get hit in the side of the head. De La Rosa lines up the arm-triangle choke, and Silva has her arm trapped and is absorbing punishment. De La Rosa sets up the arm-triangle choke again, only to bail on it to land punches in mount to conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 De La Rosa
Round 3
There is a final glove touch, and De La Rosa once more lunges to throw the first strike. Silva sits down on a pair of big head kicks, and they snap the head back but do not hurt De La Rosa. When De La Rosa comes too close, they clinch up, and Silva starts up kneeing the body and unleashing heavy elbows on the inside. De La Rosa bullies her foe into the cage wall for a single leg takedown, but the Brazilian stands her up. The American ties up the leg to try to drag Silva down, and Silva counters with a close-range choke attempt that is unsuccessful. Silva uses elbows to open up De La Rosa’s face, but De La Rosa hits a takedown. Silva springs back up to her feet and tees off on De La Rosa with a few strikes as blood flows from De La Rosa’s nose and face. De La Rosa ties up her adversary on the fence, and her face is busted up from the strikes from the Brazilian. Silva backs away around the fencing to knee De La Rosa once more, and De La Rosa changes levels low for an unsuccessful takedown. Silva cracks De La Rosa with a few sharp elbows, and De La Rosa stays tight and working the body with a few punches, De La Rosa grabs a single leg and still gets elbowed in the face. De La Rosa tries to respond with a few short knees, all while keeping Silva’s left leg in the air. Silva gains space and marches down her opponent, but De La Rosa hits a takedown in the center of the cage. De La Rosa sits down in her opponent’s guard, as there are few seconds left in the fight. Silva throws a few elbows off her back, but De La Rosa drops down punches as the clock hits zero. The scorecards could be all over the map from this grueling fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva (28-28)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva (29-27 De La Rosa)
The Official Result
Montana De La Rosa vs. Mayra Bueno Silva is ruled a Majority Draw (27-28, 28-28, 28-28)
Big Brady picks the underdog Montana De La Rosa to grind out a decision. He notes that Silva is extremely hittable and flat-footed, absorbing 6.74 significant strikes per minute. He believes De La Rosa can take Silva down at will due to Silva's 71% takedown defense and that De La Rosa has multiple paths to victory: outlanding on the feet or using her wrestling. He acknowledges Silva's danger off her back but notes De La Rosa has only been submitted once in 17 fights. He disagrees with the line, thinking De La Rosa has a good chance.
Daniel Levi picks Mayra Bueno Silva, citing her significant power and damaging shots. He acknowledges her takedown defense issues but notes improvement in the Marina Moroz fight. He believes Montana De La Rosa's nose bleeds easily and that Bueno Silva's power will be the difference, potentially leading to a decision win by landing more impactful strikes.
De La Rosa has superior wrestling and should be able to take Bueno Silva down repeatedly. Bueno Silva is dangerous off her back with submissions, but De La Rosa has only been submitted by Mackenzie Dern. De La Rosa's cardio and top control are solid, and she has shown improved striking. Expect a decision win via control and ground and pound.
The MMA Guru picks Mayra Bueno Silva by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He highlights her superior submission skills, noting she has multiple armbar wins and a ninja choke in her career. He believes Montana De La Rosa has shown little improvement and will be outclassed on the ground.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 82 of 140 | 58% | 91 of 150 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 85 of 215 | 39% | 88 of 220 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 67 | 29% | 20 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 34 of 75 | 45% | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 34 of 76 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 82 of 140 | 58% | 57 of 113 | 12 of 13 | 13 of 14 | 80 of 137 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 85 of 215 | 39% | 57 of 177 | 12 of 21 | 16 of 17 | 76 of 202 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 44 | 52% | 13 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 67 | 29% | 14 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 64 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 36 of 54 | 66% | 24 of 41 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 34 of 75 | 45% | 20 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 33 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 23 of 42 | 54% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 31 of 73 | 42% | 23 of 59 | 3 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 65 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Araújo, citing her striking advantage (4.51 sig strikes/min vs 2.3) and 100% takedown defense. He is concerned about her cardio slowing down, which could allow De La Rosa to take over late. He predicts a decision win for Araújo.
Daniel Levi leans with Viviane Araújo, citing her intensity, speed, and power. He notes that Araújo is more well-rounded and hits harder, but has cardio concerns and a chinny history. He believes if Araújo doesn't get choked out or give up her back, she will win. He acknowledges Montana De La Rosa's improvements and grappling, but feels Araújo's early offense will be decisive.
The host likes De La Rosa as a +150 underdog, citing her wrestling base, top pressure, and improving cardio. He questions Araújo's gas tank and ground game, noting she was controlled by Alexis Davis on the ground. He expects De La Rosa to mix in takedowns and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, stating she is somewhat decent and has lost to better competition (Jessica Eye) compared to Montana De La Rosa's losses. He believes Araújo's training camp and overall skills will lead to a third-round finish by submission or TKO. He dismisses De La Rosa's recent win over Mara Romero Borella as not impressive.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
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