vs
-167 +155
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 3"
Reach 63"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 5"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Piera Rodríguez
4.04 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.13 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
4.04 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
81.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Hughes
4.41 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Piera Rodríguez
Moneyline
BetRivers -167
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
BetRivers +120
Sam Hughes
Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1300
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetRivers +220
Piera Rodríguez - Fight History
WIN vs Sam Hughes
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 107 of 231 46% 111 of 237 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Sam Hughes 0 77 of 144 53% 91 of 160 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 40 of 85 47% 41 of 87 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
Sam Hughes 0 33 of 43 76% 37 of 47 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 37 59% 27 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 37 of 83 44% 38 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 107 of 231 46% 52 of 163 45 of 55 10 of 13 72 of 188 34 of 42 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 77 of 144 53% 47 of 110 13 of 17 17 of 17 65 of 132 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 40 of 85 47% 18 of 59 16 of 19 6 of 7 29 of 70 11 of 15 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 33 of 43 76% 13 of 23 9 of 9 11 of 11 30 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 63 47% 15 of 46 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 48 12 of 14 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 22 of 37 59% 16 of 29 2 of 4 4 of 4 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 37 of 83 44% 19 of 58 16 of 21 2 of 4 26 of 70 11 of 13 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 22 of 64 34% 18 of 58 2 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.

"But is going to be the pick. Sam is a great dog. That plus three and a half bet a literal guarantee."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.

"give me Piera Rodriguez. Give me Piera Rodriguez to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.

"Sam He at the very least, you know, she's going to fight for your dollar because she's rugged, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes. F it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.

"I'm going to go Hughes here. I like her as the dog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.

"Minus 150 seems oddly fair for something like the biggest question kind of answered in that first fight, was it not?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Piera Rodríguez

The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.

"I'm actually going to take her to win this time around... Split decision, maybe a 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
WIN vs Ketlen Souza
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 64 of 150 42% 81 of 171 7 of 10 70% 0 0 4:36
Ketlen Souza 0 56 of 103 54% 86 of 139 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 21 of 55 38% 23 of 58 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:37
Ketlen Souza 0 19 of 32 59% 25 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 22 of 42 52% 31 of 52 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:28
Ketlen Souza 0 16 of 28 57% 28 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:23
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 21 of 53 39% 27 of 61 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:31
Ketlen Souza 0 21 of 43 48% 33 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 64 of 150 42% 28 of 92 23 of 37 13 of 21 48 of 126 16 of 24 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 56 of 103 54% 29 of 72 10 of 13 17 of 18 48 of 92 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 21 of 55 38% 7 of 31 9 of 13 5 of 11 9 of 39 12 of 16 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 19 of 32 59% 10 of 22 3 of 3 6 of 7 16 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Piera Rodríguez 22 of 42 52% 11 of 29 7 of 8 4 of 5 18 of 36 4 of 6 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 16 of 28 57% 8 of 20 4 of 4 4 of 4 12 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 21 of 53 39% 10 of 32 7 of 16 4 of 5 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
Ketlen Souza 21 of 43 48% 11 of 30 3 of 6 7 of 7 20 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-190); Souza (+160)

Round 1
It’s a lovely day for combat. For those that missed the wonderous confines of the UFC Apex, you will find that the facility has upgraded since it was last seen on a broadcast. Twenty-four combatants tonight will break it in, starting with two ladies in the strawweight division needing a win to either stay above .500 or exceed that benchmark. Rodriguez (10-2, 3-2 UFC) is the one who could drop to an even UFC record should she fall, while Brazil’s Souza (15-5, 2-2 UFC) could go for a victory to stay in the good graces of the matchmakers. Referee Chris Tognoni will keep things genial during the mutual melee, bearing witness to a glove touch after clocking them in. Away we go.
Advertisement
Souza quickly claims the center of the cage, and it is Rodriguez who starts first with a low kick. Souza immediately replies with one back, and they pitch them at one another to find their leg range. Souza smacks Rodriguez with one that makes her recoil her leg awkwardly, and then checks the comeback. The low kicks are primarily the only strikes thrown the first minute, with Rodriguez circling along the outside as she tries to look for a jab as well. When Souza connects with her own jab, Rodriguez steps in and knees her in the body a few times before backing off. Rodriguez then jams a front kick to the body and ties Souza up again to deliver a few knees, ending with a trip attempt that fails. Souza disengages and works her way forward, clipping Rodriguez with two hooks and a step-in knee. Souza drives through two more hooks on the chin, her left hand marking up Rodriguez’ nose in the process. Rodriguez prods out jabs and front kicks, and she scores her own left hand that gets Souza’s attention. The two tie up in the middle of the cage, and Rodriguez blasts the body with several knees and hacks with elbows upstairs until Souza pushes her way out.
Souza walks into another clinch, eating a knee or two as Rodriguez is able to find her range properly. Rodriguez walks through a one-two to shoot in for a double-leg takedown, hitting it fairly easily and planting the Brazilian on her back in the open cage. Souza is able to acquit herself well on her back, defending from much damage and pushing Rodriguez off of her. Souza tries a whipping kick off her back to the body, and she uses it to explode her way to her feet and kick Rodriguez in the liver. They clash legs throwing simultaneous low kicks, and Rodriguez recovers quicker and wings two hooks. Souza responds with a spinning wheel kick try, and Rodriguez blasts through her hips with a double and puts Souza down again. Souza is quick to pursue a kimura off her back, using the position to also work her leg around the side to set up a back take. Rodriguez hangs on in the top position until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
A glove touch sets the stage for them to commence, and Rodriguez immediately strides forward and pumps several knees to the midsection. Souza shoves her away and gets off a left hook, but Rodriguez is there to answer her with more knees to the gut. Rodriguez shoots for a double but ends up running into a Brazilian wall, one that kicks her in the body. Rodriguez checks a kick to come out behind her jab, and she puts three punches together ending with a solid right hand. She strings a couple more together, stinging Souza with a left hook and crashing forward for a double. Souza is dragged to her feet but bursts back upright before long. When Souza leaps at her opponent with a knee, Rodriguez catches her midair and dumps her to the ground with a takedown. Rodriguez punches Souza in the side and back, and Tognoni warns her for striking the spine.
Rodriguez sits in half guard, dropping down short punches until Souza throws up a leglock attempt. The submission setup allows her to scramble and fight back to her feet, where she clubs the Venezuelan with a left hand before pursuing her own shot. Rodriguez puts her back to the wall to defend it, and Souza spins with an elbow that catches her on the chin. Rodriguez slips and falls over, and she pops back up and nails Souza with a spinning back fist in a “two can play that game” message. Souza pushes Rodriguez to the wall and ties her leg up for a body lock and trip attempt, and Rodriguez is able to keep her balance on the first full-throated try. Tognoni asks for more action as the shot fails and it results in a stalemate against the wall. Souza looks for an ankle pick, and Rodriguez spins her around and puts her to the fencing. Souza breaks free at the 10-second clapper, and she takes two punches upstairs and a low kick before getting taken down from a single-leg takedown. The round ends as soon as Souza’s backside hits the mat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 3
The strawweights clap hands to reintroduce themselves once more, and strikes fly from both ends. Rodriguez hammers the body with a knee and considers a takedown after it, but she abandons it and gets kicked multiple times on the outside. Souza wings two hooks at her, and she hops away from a sweeping calf kick. Rodriguez gets off a loud leg kick and takes a pecking jab to the nose, and she gives Souza a knee to think about. Rodriguez bowls her opponent over with not such much technique and more forward momentum and fatigue for both of them. Souza rolls through to get back up, and she pushes Rodriguez to the wall and goes for a single. Rodriguez shuts it down easily and circles off, connecting with an inside low kick to stop Souza’s forward charge. Rodriguez pops her with a few punches, takes a body kick and aims a right hand to the waist. Souza absorbs a right hand and checks a kick, pushing away Rodriguez who tries for a step-in vertical elbow.
The two crash together with strikes, and it is Rodriguez who lands a few times. Souza kicks her foe in the body, and Rodriguez fires back in kind. Souza snaps the head back with a left hand, and Rodriguez flicks out her jab a few times to set up a head kick that crashes into the Brazilian’s dome. Souza is tough as nails, swinging back with a vengeance, ending a combo of fists with a jump knee. Rodriguez shakes it off and drives two punches into the jaw before changing levels to complete a double. “La Fiera” lands on top in a partial half guard position, using the top placement to hold Souza down and keep her flat on her back. Rodriguez advances to side control, retaining her smothering approach while controlling rather than attacking. As time is about to run out, Rodriguez drops down a few elbows to punctuate the performance. Both women raise their arms in the air when the match ends, leaving it all in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (30-27 Rodriguez)

The Official Result
Piera Rodriguez def. Ketlen Souza via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 26 of 55 47% 67 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 0 36 of 64 56% 85 of 137 8 of 10 80% 0 0 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 18 of 30 60% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 0 19 of 31 61% 24 of 36 4 of 5 80% 0 0 3:40
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 6 of 19 31% 16 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 0 12 of 19 63% 21 of 34 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 2 of 6 33% 20 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 0 5 of 14 35% 40 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 26 of 55 47% 16 of 43 8 of 9 2 of 3 12 of 30 14 of 25 0 of 0
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 36 of 64 56% 26 of 51 8 of 10 2 of 3 12 of 26 11 of 16 13 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 18 of 30 60% 12 of 24 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 12 11 of 18 0 of 0
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 19 of 31 61% 16 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 1 6 of 13 6 of 9 7 of 9
2 Piera Rodríguez 6 of 19 31% 4 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 12 3 of 7 0 of 0
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 12 of 19 63% 6 of 12 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 10 5 of 7 2 of 2
3 Piera Rodríguez 2 of 6 33% 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson 5 of 14 35% 4 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Angelo picks Knutsson as the better striker who will use range and touch up Rodriguez from the outside. He notes Knutsson's forward pressure, combinations, and leg kicks, but also mentions her poor takedown defense. However, he is betting on Rodriguez via the plus 3.5 round spread because the odds are too wide for a 2-to-1 favorite, and he expects Rodriguez to win at least one round.

Betting on Piera Rodriguez plus 3.5 round spread (buying points on judges' scorecards).
"We're going to pick Josephine nutson because she's a better Striker... but we are betting AER Rodriguez because Josephine nutson is a two to one favorite here which means we will get that plus three and a half bet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Big Brady picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson (Cansen) to win by decision. He believes Cansen's striking is superior and that she will keep the fight standing, stuffing takedowns from Rodriguez. He notes Cansen's takedown defense is good and expects her volume to overwhelm Rodriguez on the feet. He acknowledges Rodriguez could win by getting takedowns in two rounds but thinks Cansen will avoid that.

"give me canson to kick the Knight off with a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Cody picks Josefine Knutsson, citing her striking volume, clinch work, and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes that Rodríguez has cardio issues and a tendency to gas after the first round. Cody believes Knutsson's Muay Thai and physicality will win the decision, though he is wary of the judges.

Fight goes to decision (over 2.5 rounds)
"I have Canon but this thing could get lulled down or she could get taken down and it's not going to look or feel good for us."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Knutsson because Rodríguez is a dumbass who makes the wrong decisions. He notes that Rodríguez has the physical tools to win but her tendency to foul and make poor choices makes her unreliable. Knutsson is a solid, average fighter who will stick to her game plan.

"I think I'll ride with you on this one. I'll pick one for the average solid fighters and I just yeah rodriguez is kind of a dumbass."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Daniel Vreeland picks Piera Rodríguez as a dog, contingent on her mixing in takedowns. He notes Knutsson has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in her last fight. However, he is hesitant because Rodríguez has low fight IQ, as evidenced by her headbutt in a previous fight. He believes if Rodríguez fights optimally, she wins, but he's not fully confident she will execute the game plan.

"I'm GNA take the dog here but it's contingent on her mixing in takedowns"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Knutsson's hard-nosed striking style, blitzing the pocket and landing big shots while mixing in clinch work, will be too much for Piera Rodriguez. She is expected to grind out a decision victory, continuing her winning streak.

wins by decision
"I still believe her hard no style of striking blitzing the pocket and Landing big shots while mixing it up in the clinch will be too much for Piera Rodriguez to deal with and I expect nson to grind this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Paul picks Josefine Knutsson but is not confident, citing her takedown defense issues. He notes that Rodríguez has a path via wrestling, but Knutsson's striking should win if she can stay upright. Paul is not planning to bet heavily on this fight.

"Josephine canuteson should be my pick I suppose but um yeah not going to be forcing it this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

The MMA Guru picks Josefine Lindgren Knutsson despite concerns about a potential 'fraud check' due to her past takedown vulnerabilities. He notes her crisp boxing and good standup, and believes she has been working on her grappling, making her less one-dimensional. He worries that Piera Rodríguez could take her down and grind out a win, but ultimately trusts Knutsson's undefeated record and technical striking.

"I'm taking her to beat Pier Rodriguez in this fight I hope she wins we need some women's prospects and nutson would be a really good undefeated one to have because her striking's really good"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Josefine Lindgren Knutsson

Zane picks Knutsson but is hesitant, noting that Rodríguez is a natural fighter with better physical gifts but is also an idiot who makes terrible decisions, like trying to grapple with Gillian Robertson and headbutting her way to a loss. Knutsson is a steady technician who knows what she wants to do, similar to Lina Länsberg. Zane thinks Knutsson's consistency and clinch work should win, but Rodríguez could land big shots.

Knutsson opened at -225, now -228; Rodríguez opened at +195, now +197.
"I guess I'm gonna take newtson but she strikes me as very lina lansburg. So it's just like precisely the name I was thinking of actually."
DQ (headbutts) R2 3:16 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ariane Carnelossi 1 40 of 81 49% 51 of 102 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:53
Piera Rodríguez 0 16 of 49 32% 46 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ariane Carnelossi 0 19 of 50 38% 24 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
Piera Rodríguez 0 10 of 33 30% 32 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ariane Carnelossi 1 21 of 31 67% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:31
Piera Rodríguez 0 6 of 16 37% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ariane Carnelossi 40 of 81 49% 34 of 73 6 of 8 0 of 0 22 of 60 11 of 13 7 of 8
Piera Rodríguez 16 of 49 32% 13 of 43 2 of 2 1 of 4 12 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ariane Carnelossi 19 of 50 38% 18 of 49 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 43 2 of 3 3 of 4
Piera Rodríguez 10 of 33 30% 9 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 4 9 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ariane Carnelossi 21 of 31 67% 16 of 24 5 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 17 9 of 10 4 of 4
Piera Rodríguez 6 of 16 37% 4 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Piera Rodriguez vs. Ariane Carnelossi
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-192), Carnelossi (+160)

Round 1
After over a year off, Venezuelan striker Rodriguez (9-1, 2-1 UFC) will be making her return to the cage hoping to rebound from her first career defeat. She meets Carnelossi (14-3, 2-2 UFC), whose layoff exceeds her own—“Sorriso” has not competed since May 2022. The two strawweights will look to shake off any rust while referee Mark Smith watches on. With plenty of respect for one another, they gladly touch ‘em up before throwing down. After some circling, the first strike comes from Carnelossi in the form of a low kick. Rodriguez plods forward letting her hands go in a short but effective spray, and Carnelossi backs her off with a counter. This same exchange happens again, with Rodriguez wading into combat and landing first but getting struck last. Both women land on the other in their punch flurries, and a little over a minute in and Carnelossi is already showing damage on her nose. Rodriguez changes levels, and Carnelossi shoves her away with her fists flying. Rodriguez sneaks in three punches before darting away to evade the counter, and she does this once more. Carnelossi allows Rodriguez to get to her so that she can counter, but Rodriguez is getting off her own shots. Carnelossi surges into action with a heavy right hand after Rodriguez cuts her open on the left cheek, and Rodriguez stays on her bike to get away from the worst of it. Carnelossi bullrushes her foe, driving Rodriguez back to the cage and stumbling her momentarily when letting her hands go. Rodriguez considers another level change, and she meets a stone wall that analyst Din Thomas remarks looks like Sean Sherk. Rodriguez sells out for a takedown, punching her way into the attempt, and she slings Carnelossi to the mat. When they land, their limbs are tangled in their equipment, and Smith makes sure to prevent any wardrobe malfunctions and lets them go. They proceed to slug it out from this horizontal position, with Carnelossi fearlessly throwing hands off her back and flailing her feet to get Rodriguez off of her. Rodriguez considers backing off for a standup, but she instead races ahead and hammers Carnelossi with ground-and-pound until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez

Round 2
The strawweights bump their fists together before getting back to it. Carnelossi is the one pressing forward, but she is met by a strong right hand and a knee up the middle. Rodriguez looks to capitalize on this by shooting on the hips, and Carnelossi pushes her back. Rodriguez switches to attack with another knee in the belly, and she spins her foe around and pushes her to the wall. Rodriguez drops down for a single-leg takedown, and Carnelossi hops around on her other foot to remain upright. The women trade elbows, and Rodriguez hammers her with a number of knees. Rodriguez pursues another takedown, this time going after a double as she tries to clasp her hands together around the backside. Carnelossi shuts this down and gains a little space, resulting in a brief brawl that allows her to escape. Rodriguez times a perfect front kick that blasts Carnelossi right in the face, and Carnelossi is on rubber legs and backs away. Rodriguez charges her and swings her fists until Carnelossi falls over, and
Rodriguez leaps on top and headbutts Carnelossi as Smith tells them to watch their heads. “Sorriso” tries to defend herself as Rodriguez is pummeling her with strikes, and Rodriguez sits up and smacks Carnelossi with another headbutt.
Smith calls time after the second egregious foul, and the review officials determine it was a clear headbutt. Carnelossi sits up after a couple minutes of recovery, but she is still seeing stars and compromised from both the legal and illegal blows. Carnelossi stands up after about three minutes and shakes her head, and she lowers herself back down on the fence. Carnelossi sits back down, looking upset as she tries to clear her head, and she keeps shaking her head. The doctor assesses her condition once more, and he advises Smith that the fight should not continue. The only question remaining is if the fight is ruled a no contest or a disqualification.

The Official Result
Ariane Carnelossi def. Piera Rodriguez R2 3:16 via Disqualification (Headbutts)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo acknowledges Piera Rodríguez is the better striker and grappler, but her fight IQ is questionable. Ariane Carnelossi is all brawn and strength, which could be enough in this division. However, the two-year layoff for Carnelossi and Piera's ability to bomb away and mix in takedowns should be the difference. He expects the fight to go the distance, similar to the Tabatha Ricci vs. Tisha Torres fight.

over 2.5 rounds (if line is reasonable)
"I do think the layoff the inactivity and pera's ability to just bomb away and then work in a taked down are going to be the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Cody provides an extensive breakdown: Rodríguez is a front-runner with suspect cardio and low volume, while Carnelossi is physically strong, has good cardio, and can get back up from takedowns. He notes Carnelossi's fight against Lupita Godinez showed she can survive multiple takedowns and still be competitive. Cody believes Carnelossi will outwork Rodríguez and win a decision, making her a great underdog play.

"Automatic caral Losi bet let's get this thing done probably the PRP pick."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Carnelossi is a tank of a human being returning after over two years off. She has power and explosiveness that should dictate the pace on the feet. However, her takedown defense is a concern, and ring rust is a factor. Rodriguez has decent striking and wrestling but may not be able to control Carnelossi on the mat for long. Expects Carnelossi to batter Rodriguez on the feet and win a decision.

Small shot on Carnelossi as underdog.
"I don't mind a small shot on caral Losi as the underdog in this"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ariane Carnelossi

Paul likes Carnelossi as an underdog due to her physical strength and cardio edge. He notes Rodríguez has low volume and tends to fade in later rounds. Carnelossi has shown she can get back up from takedowns and has power in her punches. Paul believes Carnelossi's durability and pace will be too much for Rodríguez.

"If any dog has my attention this week I feel like it's caral OSI."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez over Ariane Carnelossi, citing Carnelossi's suspected PED use and tendency to gas out. He notes that Carnelossi has been taken down frequently in past fights, including eight takedowns by Loopy Godinez, and that Rodríguez is good at holding back position. He expects Rodríguez to win via takedowns and control, possibly going the distance.

"I'm gon to go with Pier Rodriguez um she's been more active I think she's more committed to the game"
Submission (armbar) R2 4:21 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 26 of 39 66% 46 of 62 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:23
Piera Rodríguez 0 12 of 33 36% 25 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Piera Rodríguez 0 12 of 29 41% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
2 Gillian Robertson 0 13 of 14 92% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:11
Piera Rodríguez 0 0 of 4 0% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 26 of 39 66% 20 of 29 1 of 4 5 of 6 12 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 16
Piera Rodríguez 12 of 33 36% 10 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 13 of 25 52% 8 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 3
Piera Rodríguez 12 of 29 41% 10 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gillian Robertson 13 of 14 92% 12 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 13
Piera Rodríguez 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +102
"I have a small quarter of a uni money line bet on for her Rodriguez at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.

"I actually lean uh the Rodriguez side I think she's going to have some advantages here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.

Bet Robertson at +109 earlier
"I've got Robertson at like a half decent price but um not gonna be stunned if I uh if I absolutely lose it but I'm gonna pick Robertson"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.

"Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I would really like to see Robertson turn that corner and it might still happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.

"I like everything that I'm seeing from Rodriguez I'm loving the improvements I'm seeing as well and I would be happy to take her as the underdog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.

"I think she wins the fight does it didn't really matter what the odds were she could have been the minus 130 versus plus 110 Julian Robinson I was picking Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.

"I will Edge Pierre Rodriguez"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.

"I'm going to pick Rodriguez. I think she's looked controlled in her fights."
WIN vs Sam Hughes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 83 of 160 51% 89 of 166 5 of 11 45% 0 0 1:56
Sam Hughes 0 69 of 155 44% 78 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 19 of 53 35% 20 of 54 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 21 of 56 37% 22 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 34 of 51 66% 37 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:16
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 43 39% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 56 53% 32 of 58 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Sam Hughes 0 31 of 56 55% 36 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 83 of 160 51% 32 of 101 42 of 48 9 of 11 47 of 122 33 of 35 3 of 3
Sam Hughes 69 of 155 44% 55 of 135 11 of 15 3 of 5 55 of 140 14 of 14 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 9 of 13 3 of 5 14 of 47 4 of 5 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 21 of 56 37% 18 of 50 2 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 1
2 Piera Rodríguez 34 of 51 66% 13 of 29 17 of 18 4 of 4 19 of 35 13 of 14 2 of 2
Sam Hughes 17 of 43 39% 12 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 56 53% 12 of 37 16 of 17 2 of 2 14 of 40 16 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 31 of 56 55% 25 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 49 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.

No bet on moneyline; considering Sam Hughes +3.5 points if odds drop
"I am going to pick Bahia here I think she's gonna stuff some takedowns inflict the damage but this is a no bet situation because Sam Hughes is definitely live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.

"I like Rodriguez here I like Rodriguez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.

"I'm going with uh greasy pierra."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.

Piera Rodríguez by decision +105
"I do think that uh Pierre is the side here she'll land the better shots she'll have the better moments and I think that should be enough for her to get her hand raised via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.

"I'm gonna go with Pierre Rodriguez I think that the takedown defense is good enough the Striking is a slight Advantage."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.

prediction: 29-28 decision
"I'm still gonna go 29-28 Pierre Rodriguez with a little bit too much sting in her shots in the first two rounds to allow the pressure of Sam Hughes to take effect"
WIN vs Kay Hansen
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 50 of 88 56% 77 of 124 3 of 4 75% 0 0 5:13
Kay Hansen 0 31 of 77 40% 54 of 106 2 of 8 25% 0 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kay Hansen 0 17 of 35 48% 22 of 42 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:11
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 23 of 31 74% 29 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:45
Kay Hansen 0 7 of 21 33% 19 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:03
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 14 of 22 63% 32 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:28
Kay Hansen 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 50 of 88 56% 26 of 60 18 of 21 6 of 7 34 of 70 10 of 12 6 of 6
Kay Hansen 31 of 77 40% 22 of 61 7 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 66 5 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 13 of 35 37% 7 of 26 5 of 8 1 of 1 12 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Kay Hansen 17 of 35 48% 14 of 30 3 of 5 0 of 0 14 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1
2 Piera Rodríguez 23 of 31 74% 15 of 22 6 of 6 2 of 3 16 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4
Kay Hansen 7 of 21 33% 3 of 15 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 14 of 22 63% 4 of 12 7 of 7 3 of 3 6 of 14 6 of 6 2 of 2
Kay Hansen 7 of 21 33% 5 of 16 1 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 17 1 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo likes Piera Rodríguez as the underdog. He highlights her nasty striking, calculated brawling, and good takedown defense. He notes that she does damage in defensive scrambles and has solid grappling defense if taken down. He believes there's something special in her style.

"i really like pejora rodriguez in this matchup i i think there's just something special in her the way that she defends those takedowns and starts immediately doing damage is absolutely fantastic"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady slightly edges Rodríguez to win a volume-based decision on the feet, stuffing takedowns and working back up if taken down. He notes Rodríguez has power and improved takedown defense, while Hansen may struggle to get the fight to the mat. However, he has no confidence in this pick and will not bet it.

"I'm going to slightly edge the rodriguez side... I will slightly edge rodriguez to win a volume-based decision on the feet"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kay Hansen

Cody takes Hansen as a slight underdog, noting she has scored takedowns in all her UFC fights. He thinks Rodríguez is hittable and not great at getting back up. Cody acknowledges Hansen's youth and inconsistency but believes her grappling can secure rounds. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation.

"dogger pass i'm taking the underdog in the three women mma fights"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Levi notes Kay Hansen has fought better competition and has a path to victory on the ground, but questions her mental commitment due to outside income. He favors Piera Rodríguez's crisp hands and knockout power for the weight class, and thinks the fight location (striking range) favors Rodríguez. He admits he is not confident and has no bet on it.

"i'm gonna go on the opposite side take pierrot rodriguez i don't have a bet on it or anything i'm not confident at all"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kay Hansen

I lean Kay Hansen because she is showing improvements in her striking and has clearly better BJJ. She can mix in grappling and clinch work to get the fight to the ground and wear on Piera from top position. I think she can hold her own in striking but needs to mix in grappling to avoid getting touched up. I see her winning via decision or submission.

"I do lean the Kay Hanson side because she is showing improvements in her striking... but her ability to mix this fight up and be the clearly better bjj player... I think that will be the difference maker in this …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul leans towards Rodríguez but calls it a pass. He notes Rodríguez's physicality and striking, but saw her gas in her Contender Series fight. He thinks Hansen's grappling could be a factor but that Rodríguez's pressure might be too much. He picks Rodríguez for the show but with low confidence.

"i'm leaning towards rodriguez but there really isn't much uh i wouldn't be shocked to see kaye get back on the winning track here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kay Hansen

The MMA Guru picks Kay Hansen as an underdog, citing her experience and activity. He notes that Hansen picks up as fights go on, winning the second and third rounds. He expects a close split decision, possibly 29-28, and mentions that Hansen's name recognition might sway judges. He also points out that Rodríguez's output was low on the Contender Series.

underdog pick, split decision prediction
"i'm gonna go with kay hanson by decision and i'm gonna call a split decision win for kay hanson here"
Sam Hughes - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 107 of 231 46% 111 of 237 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:35
Sam Hughes 0 77 of 144 53% 91 of 160 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 40 of 85 47% 41 of 87 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
Sam Hughes 0 33 of 43 76% 37 of 47 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:22
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:14
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 37 59% 27 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 37 of 83 44% 38 of 84 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 22 of 64 34% 27 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 107 of 231 46% 52 of 163 45 of 55 10 of 13 72 of 188 34 of 42 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 77 of 144 53% 47 of 110 13 of 17 17 of 17 65 of 132 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 40 of 85 47% 18 of 59 16 of 19 6 of 7 29 of 70 11 of 15 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 33 of 43 76% 13 of 23 9 of 9 11 of 11 30 of 40 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 63 47% 15 of 46 13 of 15 2 of 2 17 of 48 12 of 14 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 22 of 37 59% 16 of 29 2 of 4 4 of 4 18 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 37 of 83 44% 19 of 58 16 of 21 2 of 4 26 of 70 11 of 13 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 22 of 64 34% 18 of 58 2 of 4 2 of 2 17 of 59 5 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez but is hesitant. He thinks Rodríguez's takedowns will be the key, as Sam Hughes's takedown defense has not been great. However, he warns that Las Vegas judges may not value wrestling, and if Hughes is busier on the feet, she could get the decision. He would not bet Rodríguez and prefers Hughes as a dog.

"But is going to be the pick. Sam is a great dog. That plus three and a half bet a literal guarantee."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision, citing her improved cardio and wrestling since their first fight. He notes her elite takedown numbers (4.5 per 15 minutes, 54% accuracy) and believes she will mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees the rematch playing out similarly to the first, with Rodríguez winning rounds 1 and 2 and possibly not slowing down in round 3.

"give me Piera Rodriguez. Give me Piera Rodriguez to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Hughes as a dog, citing her toughness, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Rodríguez's takedowns don't lead to control. He thinks Hughes can outwork her and win a decision.

"Sam He at the very least, you know, she's going to fight for your dollar because she's rugged, man."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing that she was consistently ahead in the first fight and has the speed and technical edge. He notes that Hughes's wins come against inexperienced fighters, while Rodríguez is more well-rounded. He sees the rematch as unnecessary but expects a similar outcome.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

James picks Sam Hughes as an underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes Hughes' improved takedown defense and cardio, and believes she can win by outworking Rodríguez. He acknowledges Rodríguez's grappling advantage but thinks Hughes can edge a split decision.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes. F it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes has improved since their first fight, particularly in strength and conditioning, and that her pressure and volume will be key. He notes that Hughes has better takedown defense now and can get back to her feet quickly, negating Rodriguez's clinch advantage. He expects Hughes to outdamage Rodriguez and win a decision, citing that rematches often play out differently and Hughes is the one who has improved more.

"I'm going to go Hughes here. I like her as the dog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul leans Rodríguez, citing her wrestling and previous win over Hughes. He thinks she can get takedowns and control. He acknowledges it's close but favors the wrestler.

"Minus 150 seems oddly fair for something like the biggest question kind of answered in that first fight, was it not?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Piera Rodríguez

The Guru picks Piera Rodríguez to win the rematch, believing she will improve her striking and that her grappling will be more recognized by the judges this time. He notes that in the first fight, Rodríguez outgrappled Hughes but lost due to striking, and he thinks Rodríguez's youth gives her more room to improve. He predicts a split decision or 29-28.

"I'm actually going to take her to win this time around... Split decision, maybe a 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Piera Rodríguez, noting that she was faster and stronger in the first fight and controlled the grappling exchanges. He believes Hughes struggles against fighters with better athleticism and that Rodríguez's speed and technical edge will again be decisive. He acknowledges a chance for Hughes if she comes in more aggressive, but sees Rodríguez as the likely winner.

Rodríguez opened at -200, currently -156; Hughes opened at +170, currently +136
"Yeah, I don't really see the reason to do this again. You know, Sam Hughes can win it and does win it. I don't see the reason to do this again."
WIN vs Shauna Bannon
Submission R2 1:58 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shauna Bannon 0 13 of 38 34% 42 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 21 of 46 45% 55 of 84 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shauna Bannon 0 7 of 21 33% 33 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:09
2 Shauna Bannon 0 6 of 17 35% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 8 of 17 47% 10 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shauna Bannon 13 of 38 34% 5 of 20 4 of 9 4 of 9 12 of 33 1 of 3 0 of 2
Sam Hughes 21 of 46 45% 19 of 43 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 21 3 of 5 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shauna Bannon 7 of 21 33% 3 of 10 2 of 6 2 of 5 6 of 18 1 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 14 2 of 3 9 of 12
2 Shauna Bannon 6 of 17 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 2
Sam Hughes 8 of 17 47% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 7 1 of 2 5 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Shauna Bannon vs. Sam Hughes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hughes (-310); Bannon (+250)

Round 1
After a week to catch our collective breaths, the UFC sallies forth to Paris. As part of its annual French fight card series, local fans will be treated to a bevy of European athletes with decent matchups. It all comes to a head with French fighters in the main and co-main attractions, but before then, there are 11 more fights to get through. We commence the festivities with the sole women’s match on the card, one that will play out at strawweight. Bannon (7-1, 2-1 UFC) will look to keep her momentum going as she clashes with .500 UFC fighter Hughes (10-6, 5-5 UFC) who may be better than her resume appears. The two 115ers will be joined in the Octagon by referee Lukasz Bosacki, who clocks them in as they rush towards one another without a fist bump in sight. It’s on with the show.
Advertisement
They both strike at the same time to greet one another, and Hughes lands cleaner and gest Bannon’s attention right off the bat. Reddening up the Irishwoman’s nose with her fists, she prompts Bannon into shooting in for a takedown. Hughes turns the tables against her and tackles her to the mat, and various chants in French boom throughout the surprisingly populated building. When Bannon closes up her guard and slows Hughes down, members of the audience start wooing rudely. Bosacki calls for more action before long, and the crowd starts to turn on the strawweights as the grind has been embraced two minutes in. Bannon lifts her right leg up for a rubber guard, but Hughes completely ignores it and retains heavy chest pressure.
As little else happens besides a few Hughes punches, Bosacki calls for them to do something more. “Sampage” listens this time around, and she slugs Bannon with several powerful blows. Bannon’s eyes go wide as she takes fire, and she grabs hold of Hughes to slow her down. Hughes looks to pass guard, and Bannon uses upkicks to push off her foe’s chest. The upkicks do not slow Hughes, who steps over to a crucifix position and starts hammering “Mama B” with elbows. Bosacki asks for Bannon to fight back as Hughes thumps Bannon up with her elbows, and Bannon desperately bucks to get her arm free and drags Hughes back to half guard. Hughes explodes over to take the back briefly during a scramble, and she settles for side control so she can beat down Bannon further. When Bannon sits up, Hughes tries for a no-hook rear-naked choke. The Irish fighter is able to escape the choke and work to her feet with the wall behind her, and Hughes knees her in the face and pops her with a left hand before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hughes

Round 2
The ladies get right to business, with Bannon knowing she dropped the round and starting off aggressively. Kicks from the Irish athlete fly to all targets, as she sets up one high by starting on the lead leg. Hughes shrugs it off and counters with an overhand right, and a bit of a mouse develops under her left eye. Hughes is tough as nails as she catches a head kick and slings Bannon to the mat, where she punches her foe all the way down to the canvas. Hughes sits comfortably in an open guard, and Bannon hooks her fingers inside of her opponent’s gloves. Bosacki warns her for the foul, and Hughes punishes her for this by bashing her with heavy ground-and-pound. “Sampage” works her way to side control, where she hunts for another crucifix position—perhaps emulating the recent success of middleweight champ Khamzat Chimaev—and this makes Bannon scramble like a madwoman. Hughes allows her to turn because she has set a trap. When Bannon posts of her hands to sit up, her neck is exposed and Hughes knows it.
Hughes snatches up a textbook rear-naked choke, looping both hooks in and securing her grip beneath the chin. Bannon knows her goose is cooked, and she has no choice but to tap out.
The victorious American has performed her first submission—and second finish overall—in the Octagon, while handing Bannon her first stoppage loss as a pro.

The Official Result
Sam Hughes def. Shauna Bannon R2 1:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Angelo is extremely confident in Sam Hughes, calling her his most confident pick on the entire card. He criticizes Shauna Bannon's unorthodox and ineffective striking style, describing her as having low fight IQ and a 'weirdo fight style.' He believes Hughes' relentless pressure, cardio, and grinding ability will overwhelm Bannon, leading to takedowns and forward pressure. He notes the line has moved from -250 to -320 and expects it to go even higher. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Sam Hughes is my most confident pick on this card. Period. End of story."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Big Brady picks Sam Hughes, noting she is a favorite for the first time in her UFC career. He believes this is her easiest fight yet, citing her pressure, cardio, and pace. He mentions she can mix in grappling but is not willing to bet at -310. He predicts a decision win.

Sam Hughes by decision
"Sam Hughes should be able to win this fight. You know, do the better work pretty much wherever the fight goes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Sam Hughes is a great matchup to expose Shauna Bannon as not a UFC-level talent. He expects Hughes to control the fight from the start with her pressure striking or takedowns and top control, grinding out a decision win.

"I feel like this is a great fight for Sam Hughes to showcase that Bannon is not a UFC level talent."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The Guru picks Sam Hughes because she has a clear method of victory: her wrestling and gritty cardio. He criticizes Shauna Bannon for lacking any standout skill, noting her win over Pujitoma was circumstantial. He expects Hughes to win a close decision by securing takedowns at the end of rounds, which often sways judges in women's MMA.

"I'm going to go with Sam Hughes to win this in the early prelim opener."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Stephanie Luciano 0 82 of 251 32% 101 of 273 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Sam Hughes 0 76 of 152 50% 146 of 233 3 of 8 37% 1 0 4:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Stephanie Luciano 0 42 of 104 40% 52 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Sam Hughes 0 35 of 68 51% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Stephanie Luciano 0 18 of 44 40% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 13 of 29 44% 71 of 98 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:19
3 Stephanie Luciano 0 22 of 103 21% 29 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 55 50% 33 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Stephanie Luciano 82 of 251 32% 45 of 202 23 of 34 14 of 15 79 of 246 3 of 5 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 76 of 152 50% 43 of 113 15 of 20 18 of 19 69 of 144 3 of 4 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Stephanie Luciano 42 of 104 40% 21 of 76 13 of 19 8 of 9 41 of 102 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 35 of 68 51% 21 of 48 6 of 11 8 of 9 32 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Stephanie Luciano 18 of 44 40% 9 of 35 7 of 7 2 of 2 16 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 13 of 29 44% 8 of 24 1 of 1 4 of 4 9 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Stephanie Luciano 22 of 103 21% 15 of 91 3 of 8 4 of 4 22 of 103 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 55 50% 14 of 41 8 of 8 6 of 6 28 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Angelo picks Stephanie Luciano over Sam Hughes. He believes Luciano is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and cardio. He notes that Hughes is a pressure fighter but Luciano won't fade early. He also mentions the plus 3.5 round line as a potential value bet on Hughes.

Sam Hughes +3.5 round line
"Stephanie luchano is going to be the pick and honestly if the odds are just who wins this fight I think the odds are correct."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

Big Brady picks Stephanie Luciano, noting her excellent cardio and output, which should allow her to maintain pace for all 15 minutes. He observes that Sam Hughes' wins come against opponents who slow down after the first 7-8 minutes, but Luciano won't fade. Brady thinks if Luciano can stuff takedowns, she will pick Hughes apart on the feet. He predicts a decision win but does not like the -225 price.

Luciano by decision
"I like Luciano here... I think she wins a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Yur Medeiros, but with low confidence due to his volatile style and durability issues. He notes that Medeiros is a finisher but has been knocked out. He prefers the under on the fight, expecting a finish. He considers Gilbert Urbina as a dog play because of the high line.

Under 1.5 rounds at -155
"I think I this just feels like unders uh for me whether it's fight doesn't or you know I don't know if that line even still exists but uh if you can find an under two and a half and …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The host believes Luciano's striking advantage will prove decisive, though the fight might be closer than odds indicate. He expects Luciano to land more damage and win on the scorecards.

Hughes is always a dog at plus money
"I believe hu uh Luciano's striking Advantage here will prove prove fo for for her it might play out closer than the odds indicate and Hughes is always a dog when she's uh at this plus money but I still …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul picks Gilbert Urbina as a dog, citing Medeiros's inconsistency and durability issues. He notes that Urbina has a reach advantage and has been off for a while, possibly making improvements. He believes the line is too high and that Urbina has a chance to win, especially if he can avoid early knockout.

"I'm going to take Gilbert or Beina. Strictly a system play. Too big of a line. If one of these big favorites is is is going to do something stupid, it's probably Euros Medic that kind of fights like a, …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Stephanie Luciano

The MMA Guru picks Stephanie Luciano, citing her improved takedown defense after facing an opponent who shot 24 takedowns in her last fight. He notes she's tall for the division with nasty striking, planting her feet when she throws punches. He dismisses Sam Hughes as a 'fraud checker' who has beaten prospects but thinks Luciano's takedown defense and striking will be too much. He also suggests judges might rob Hughes even if she wins, so he's confident in Luciano.

"I'm going to go of Stephanie Luciano I don't think the judges will even let Sam Hughes get another fraud check at women's MMA I just don't think so"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 61 of 144 42% 104 of 199 3 of 10 30% 0 0 4:38
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 97 of 193 50% 139 of 240 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 66 37% 34 of 79 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:24
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 30 of 70 42% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
2 Sam Hughes 0 25 of 53 47% 34 of 65 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:23
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 41 of 80 51% 54 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Sam Hughes 0 11 of 25 44% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
Viktoriia Dudakova 0 26 of 43 60% 46 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 61 of 144 42% 45 of 122 15 of 21 1 of 1 50 of 125 11 of 19 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 97 of 193 50% 65 of 147 24 of 38 8 of 8 86 of 179 6 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 25 of 66 37% 16 of 54 9 of 12 0 of 0 17 of 53 8 of 13 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 30 of 70 42% 19 of 51 7 of 15 4 of 4 26 of 64 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 25 of 53 47% 19 of 46 6 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 48 3 of 5 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 41 of 80 51% 29 of 66 10 of 12 2 of 2 39 of 77 1 of 2 1 of 1
3 Sam Hughes 11 of 25 44% 10 of 22 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Viktoriia Dudakova 26 of 43 60% 17 of 30 7 of 11 2 of 2 21 of 38 1 of 1 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Angelo picks Dudakova but is hesitant because the odds are too high for a close fight. He thinks Dudakova is the better fighter skill-for-skill and expects her to wrestle early, but warns that if she lets Hughes pressure, she could have a tough night. He advises against betting the moneyline and recommends the over 2.5 rounds.

Over 2.5 rounds; do not bet moneyline
"I'm going to pick Victoria dudova... these odds are atrocious do not bet on Victoria dudova don't touch the money line Hammer the over two and a half"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Big Brady acknowledges Sam Hughes is a live dog but thinks Dudakova can go the full 15 minutes without gassing. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and striking defense, while Dudakova should do enough to win a close decision. He mentions Dudakova's last poor performance was due to a staph infection on her ass, which should not be a factor this time.

"I'm going to take d toova by decision I think a lot of people are very low on D toova after her last fight against jinu fry and I kind of am as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Cody picks Sam Hughes, citing Dudakova's poor performances, weight miss, and medical issues. He notes that Dudakova has low volume and overrated wrestling, while Hughes has faced better competition and is constantly in your face. Cody thinks Hughes can outwork Dudakova and win a decision. He also mentions that Hughes is always an underdog and fights to the last minute.

"I'll go Sam Hughes as well."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

Daniel leans towards Dudakova, citing her reach advantage, youth, and takedown ability against Hughes' poor takedown defense. He acknowledges Hughes' higher pace but thinks Dudakova can seal rounds with takedowns and win a close decision. He is not fully confident due to Dudakova's greenness.

"I think I'm gonna lean towards uh dudakova to kind of win a a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Hughes is a live underdog if not at a huge physical disadvantage. She should put on a pace and grind out Dudakova, winning at least two rounds on the scorecards.

"I expect her to put on a bit of a pace here and really put dudakova through the grind and at least picking up two rounds here to win this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul picks Sam Hughes, noting that Dudakova has not impressed and has had weight issues. He thinks Hughes can make the fight ugly and grind out a decision. Paul also mentions that Hughes is underrated and always gives 100% effort. He believes the line is too wide and that Hughes has a good chance to win.

"I think Sam Hughes can make this grimy get up in her face make it ugly make it close."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Viktoriia Dudakova

The MMA Guru picks Victoria Dudakova over Sam Hughes, calling Hughes 'awful' and past her prime. He notes Dudakova is a younger, improving Russian prospect with a win streak, including a win over Maria Silva on the contender series. He expects Dudakova to do enough to win.

"I'm gonna go Victoria dudova she's undefeated... Sam Hughes is just awful"
LOSS vs Yazmin Jauregui
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yazmin Jauregui 0 94 of 269 34% 97 of 272 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 83 of 197 42% 88 of 206 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yazmin Jauregui 0 28 of 88 31% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 19 of 47 40% 21 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Yazmin Jauregui 0 32 of 91 35% 33 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 36 of 75 48% 39 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Yazmin Jauregui 0 34 of 90 37% 35 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Hughes 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yazmin Jauregui 94 of 269 34% 52 of 197 24 of 42 18 of 30 84 of 253 10 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 83 of 197 42% 40 of 143 17 of 24 26 of 30 80 of 190 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yazmin Jauregui 28 of 88 31% 16 of 65 8 of 14 4 of 9 22 of 78 6 of 10 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 19 of 47 40% 11 of 36 3 of 6 5 of 5 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Yazmin Jauregui 32 of 91 35% 18 of 67 9 of 14 5 of 10 29 of 87 3 of 4 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 36 of 75 48% 15 of 53 11 of 11 10 of 11 34 of 70 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Yazmin Jauregui 34 of 90 37% 18 of 65 7 of 14 9 of 11 33 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 28 of 75 37% 14 of 54 3 of 7 11 of 14 27 of 73 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Angelo is very confident in Jauregui, believing the UFC set this up for her to get back on track. He notes her striking and grappling are impressive, and while she was knocked out quickly in her last fight, Sam Hughes doesn't hit as hard. He trusts the process.

"Yasmin yui is going to be the pick very confident in that pick but Sam Hughes has played spoiler before"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Big Brady picks Yazmin Jauregui to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Jauregui is the biggest favorite on the card at -500 and that the matchup is favorable. He praises Jauregui's takedown defense and striking, while criticizing Sam Hughes's hittability and toughness. He thinks Jauregui will dominate on the feet and potentially finish Hughes, though he questions Jauregui's chin after being dropped in her last two fights.

Jauregui wins by KO in round 2
"I'm going to take Yasmin hery here I think it's going to be an absolute beat down minus 500 it's scary but maybe she does look minus 500 when it's all said and done so give me asmin hery to …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yazmin Jauregui

Cody picks Jauregui but is hesitant, calling it the coward's way out. He notes Jauregui's durability is a question mark after being knocked out by Denise Gomes, but her takedown defense held against Lendo. He thinks Jauregui has a massive advantage on the feet and is more interested in live betting.

"I will take the coward's way out I will take yadman oriki as a pick here I think this is a fight that I'm more interested in a live betting perspective"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

The host believes Hughes will be the best wrestler Jauregui has faced, despite Jauregui's 100% takedown defense rate (only two attempts faced). He thinks Hughes's improvement at Fortis MMA and game planning will allow her to take the fight into deep waters and win on the scorecards, springing a massive upset.

"I think Hughes will be the best wrestler that y has faced and even though yui showcases at 100% takedown defense rate she's only faced two takedown attempts in her three UFC fights thus far I think Sam Hughes has …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Paul leans towards Hughes due to the massive plus price. He notes Hughes is 3-1 in her last four, gritty, and has been using more wrestling lately. He questions what makes Jauregui such a huge favorite, as she hasn't excelled in hard 15-minute fights. However, he admits Hughes isn't a power puncher and if it's a striking affair, Jauregui likely wins.

"I think I might take Sam Hughes if for no other reason then the price tag is just ridiculous"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 12 of 52 23% 52 of 109 2 of 10 20% 3 0 3:42
Jaqueline Amorim 0 46 of 104 44% 107 of 176 1 of 1 100% 0 1 7:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 7 of 25 28% 11 of 34 2 of 2 100% 3 0 3:24
Jaqueline Amorim 0 11 of 25 44% 13 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
2 Sam Hughes 0 3 of 6 50% 8 of 11 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Jaqueline Amorim 0 6 of 21 28% 34 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
3 Sam Hughes 0 2 of 21 9% 33 of 64 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:01
Jaqueline Amorim 0 29 of 58 50% 60 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 12 of 52 23% 12 of 42 0 of 7 0 of 3 11 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jaqueline Amorim 46 of 104 44% 45 of 101 1 of 3 0 of 0 19 of 62 6 of 7 21 of 35
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 7 of 25 28% 7 of 17 0 of 5 0 of 3 6 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 3
Jaqueline Amorim 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Sam Hughes 3 of 6 50% 3 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jaqueline Amorim 6 of 21 28% 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 5
3 Sam Hughes 2 of 21 9% 2 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jaqueline Amorim 29 of 58 50% 28 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 28 0 of 0 18 of 30
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Sam Hughes
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-245), Hughes (+205)

Round 1
For the third time in five weeks, the UFC is asking its fans to empty their pocketbooks and shell out $80 for a fight card. This event in Miami, with a championship rematch a mere six months in the making sitting atop the marquee, might have something to offer everyone. The now dozen-bout billing begins in the women’s strawweight division, with a match that would be well-suited for an LFA headliner. Unbeaten Amorim (6-0, 0-0 UFC) will make her first walk to the Octagon tonight, where she meets “Sampage” Hughes (7-5, 2-4 UFC). The first fight of the night begins with a touch of gloves in front of referee Andrew Glenn, and it’s on with the show. Amorim introduces herself with a few sweeping kicks, and Hughes dodges or blocks them all. Hughes paws forward a jab, and she is met with a pair of right hooks from the Brazilian. Hughes claims she was poked in the eye, and Glenn does not recognize it so they do not stop. Hughes walks her opponent down, but she gets countered repeatedly by Amorim. Hughes presses forward with jabs outstretched, and Amorim shoots in from afar with a takedown. Hughes defends from her back with an armbar, but Amorim laughs this off and steps over to a dominant position. As Hughes scrambles, Amorim takes her back and briefly considers an armbar setup. Hughes fights it off and explodes back to her feet, and she elbows her foe in the face before defending another level change. Amorim grabs hold of a single-leg takedown and lifts Hughes off the ground to toss her to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Hughes instinctually keeps her legs high for a potential triangle choke, and Amorim slides through and allows Hughes to move to her knees so she can take the back. Briefly flirting with a kimura lock from the back, she instead gets both hooks in and hunts for a rear-naked choke. Amorim secures the body triangle and strangles Hughes, but the tough Hughes grits it out and fights the hands to defend from the choke. Hughes stands up, and Amorim remains on her back and wrenches on the neck. Amorim locks it down, and Hughes fights the hands again to defend the choke and does so by getting her fingers in the gloves. Amorim switches to a palm-to-palm grip as Hughes falls to her back, and once again Hughes survives while still firmly entrenched in the danger zone. Amorim retains her tight body triangle around the waist, and she abandons the back take to step over into mount and set up an arm-triangle choke. Hughes scrambles and gets slugged in the chops, and she manages to stand up. The round ends as she chases Amorim across the cage.
Advertisement

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Amorim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Amorim

Round 2
Amorim has reached the second round for the first time as a pro, and Hughes appears energized as she pushes forward and drives Amorim to the wall. Amorim jumps to guard, and Hughes backs off and lets her stand up. Amorim swings with a body kick, and Hughes lays into her with a pair of punches. Amorim rushes in for a takedown, and Hughes bowls her over and moves into the guard. Amorim sets up the body triangle off her back, keeping Hughes from dropping down ground-and-pound. Hughes looks to free her hands to bust the Brazilian in the face, but Amorim is clinging tightly and looking to sneak her arm under Hughes’ knee. Hughes wrenches out her left hand to bop Amorim in the nose a few times, and Amorim flails with her legs and pushes Hughes off of her to force the standup. Hughes strides forward with a few punches, and a takedown effort from Amorim is again thwarted by “Sampage.” Hughes makes Amorim stand up again, and she dings her with a few punches. Amorim falls to her back, and Hughes complains to Glenn about grabbing the glove. Amorim fastens the body triangle with Hughes on top, and she postures up in the guard and rains down punches. Amorim turns to pursue a leglock, and Hughes rips it out and stands. Amorim is slow to follow her up, seemingly running out of steam, and she pursues a desperation takedown that is easily stuffed. The crowd rains down boos as Amorim overcommits to a single, and she turns it to a double-leg and ends up pulling guard instead. Amorim goes after a heel hook, but Hughes slides the leg free and stands up. Hughes decides to pursue a single of her own, and she dumps Amorim on her back and holds her there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hughes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hughes

Round 3
Everyone and their brother in Hughes’ corner informs her that her opponent is exhausted. The third round opens with a glove touch, and Hughes is the immediate aggressor to pick up right where she left off. Amorim flails feebly with her fists, and Hughes ignores them and gets off a right hand. “Sampage” fires off a high kick, and Amorim flops to her back and looks to tie Hughes up. Hughes escapes, and the Brazilian stands and backs up against the cage. Hughes punts her in the face with a front kick, and Amorim moves to her back again and puts her legs around the waist. Hughes opens up with heavy hammerfists and elbows, and Amorim tries to fight back but is getting into a failed slugfest from her back. Hughes settles down when Amorim gets the body triangle around the waist again, and Amorim turns to a side in hopes of setting up a two-on-one wrist lock. Hughes continues to fight off that kimura setup, all while punching the body and otherwise frustrating the unbeaten fighter. Hughes does not slow her methodical offense, and a long series of left hands land on the jaw. Amorim paws back every time to little effect, and she turns over with the body triangle still in play for an armlock. Amorim is warned for grabbing the inside of the glove, and Hughes does not like this and opens up with some heavy ground-and-pound. Hughes bails on the position and stands up, and a fatigued Amorim stands and backs away. Hughes pushes out a front kick and a few punches, and she has Amorim on the ropes and totally spent. Amorim leans forward for a takedown, but has no energy to secure it, so Hughes pushes her to her seat and pounds on her. Hughes pushes off and stands, and Amorim wings a big right hand and follows with a front kick. Amorim gets caught with a few punches, drops down for a takedown, and the match comes to a close. Depending on the scoring of Round 1, a draw could theoretically be in play.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hughes (29-28 Hughes)

The Official Result
Sam Hughes def. Jaqueline Amorim via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Angelo sees Jaqueline Amorim as the clear winner due to her undefeated record, all stoppage wins, and superior grappling with blast double takedowns and a wild array of submissions. He notes she also has legitimate one-punch power. However, he is cautious about betting because Sam Hughes is extremely tough and has UFC experience, which could lead to a fade if Amorim doesn't finish early. He suggests an under 2.5 rounds play might be the way to go.

under 2.5 rounds
"this should be Jacqueline morum all the way she should absolutely dominate this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Big Brady is confident in Jaqueline Amorim due to her elite BJJ credentials and six first-round finishes. He notes that Sam Hughes has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents. He believes once Amorim gets the fight to the mat, it will be over quickly via submission. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"I like amarine to win this fight I'd like her to not only win this fight I like her to finish this fight in the very first round with some type of submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Cody picks Amorim but is slightly hesitant due to the price. He notes Amorim's submission skills are elite and that she finishes fights quickly. He points out Hughes' poor takedown defense and believes Amorim will get the fight to the ground and submit her. Cody says he won't parlay her but thinks she wins. He mentions the under on the fight time as a potential play.

Under 12.5 minutes on PrizePicks
"I'll pick amarim"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hughes. He notes that Amorim is a great prospect but very raw, and Hughes has shown she can break opponents who expect to win quickly.

"I think those odds should get a lot closer. I think Emory, she's a great prospect, but is a very raw fighter at this point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Jacob agrees that Amorim should dominate, highlighting her methodical takedown timing and excellent top control. He notes that Sam Hughes's toughness may actually work against her because she scrambles to get back to her feet, which opens up submission opportunities for Amorim. He is concerned about Amorim's cardio if the fight goes past the first round, but believes she is good enough to get the job done early.

"I think Jaclyn should come in and dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Amorim is a BJJ black belt with all six wins by first-round finish. Her grappling should overwhelm Hughes, who has good cardio but may struggle to stop takedowns. The line at -230 is too wide for a debutant, but Amorim's submission threat is real. I expect her to lock up a submission after getting the fight to the ground.

submission prop
"I think ultimately the strong wrestling or at least strong grappling game of amram is going to allow her to get the position she needs here against Sam Hughes so that she can go on to eventually get a submission …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jaqueline Amorim

Paul picks Amorim, believing her BJJ is elite and that she will take Hughes down and submit her. He notes Hughes has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by many opponents. Paul thinks Amorim's grappling is a level above and that she will progressively improve position. He acknowledges Amorim's striking is unproven but expects her to get the fight to the ground quickly. He suggests live betting Hughes if the fight goes past the first round.

Under 12.5 minutes on PrizePicks; live bet on Hughes after round 1
"I am going to take her I think that uh stylistically this fight probably hits the ground if it does hit the ground it's amrams all day"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Jaqueline Amorim

The MMA Guru predicts Jaqueline Amorim will win by first-round submission via rear-naked choke. He envisions a scramble early on where Amorim gets Hughes against the cage, executes an inside or outside trip to get on top in half guard, then takes the back as Hughes scrambles and sinks in the choke. He is confident in this outcome, describing the sequence in detail.

first round submission, rear-naked choke
"I'm going with Jacqueline Amore in my first round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Zane picks Hughes because Amorim is raw and has never been outside the first round. He notes that Hughes has been building a functional game and is aggressive with intelligent pressure. Zane also mentions that Amorim's grappling is not complex and she may not get clean takedowns.

"I'm going to pick Sam Hughes here personally."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Piera Rodríguez 0 83 of 160 51% 89 of 166 5 of 11 45% 0 0 1:56
Sam Hughes 0 69 of 155 44% 78 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Piera Rodríguez 0 19 of 53 35% 20 of 54 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:17
Sam Hughes 0 21 of 56 37% 22 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Piera Rodríguez 0 34 of 51 66% 37 of 54 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:16
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 43 39% 20 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Piera Rodríguez 0 30 of 56 53% 32 of 58 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Sam Hughes 0 31 of 56 55% 36 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Piera Rodríguez 83 of 160 51% 32 of 101 42 of 48 9 of 11 47 of 122 33 of 35 3 of 3
Sam Hughes 69 of 155 44% 55 of 135 11 of 15 3 of 5 55 of 140 14 of 14 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Piera Rodríguez 19 of 53 35% 7 of 35 9 of 13 3 of 5 14 of 47 4 of 5 1 of 1
Sam Hughes 21 of 56 37% 18 of 50 2 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 1
2 Piera Rodríguez 34 of 51 66% 13 of 29 17 of 18 4 of 4 19 of 35 13 of 14 2 of 2
Sam Hughes 17 of 43 39% 12 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Piera Rodríguez 30 of 56 53% 12 of 37 16 of 17 2 of 2 14 of 40 16 of 16 0 of 0
Sam Hughes 31 of 56 55% 25 of 48 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 49 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.

No bet on moneyline; considering Sam Hughes +3.5 points if odds drop
"I am going to pick Bahia here I think she's gonna stuff some takedowns inflict the damage but this is a no bet situation because Sam Hughes is definitely live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.

"I like Rodriguez here I like Rodriguez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.

"I'm going with uh greasy pierra."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.

Piera Rodríguez by decision +105
"I do think that uh Pierre is the side here she'll land the better shots she'll have the better moments and I think that should be enough for her to get her hand raised via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.

"I'm gonna go with Pierre Rodriguez I think that the takedown defense is good enough the Striking is a slight Advantage."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.

prediction: 29-28 decision
"I'm still gonna go 29-28 Pierre Rodriguez with a little bit too much sting in her shots in the first two rounds to allow the pressure of Sam Hughes to take effect"
WIN vs Elise Reed
TKO (elbow and punches) R3 3:52 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Hughes 0 17 of 41 41% 70 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 43 of 65 66% 130 of 161 4 of 7 57% 0 0 11:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Hughes 0 16 of 35 45% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 31 48% 23 of 41 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:38
2 Sam Hughes 0 1 of 6 16% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 13 of 15 86% 55 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:49
3 Sam Hughes 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elise Reed 0 15 of 19 78% 52 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Hughes 17 of 41 41% 10 of 34 7 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 43 of 65 66% 33 of 51 6 of 10 4 of 4 7 of 19 6 of 10 30 of 36
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Hughes 16 of 35 45% 9 of 28 7 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 31 4 of 4 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 31 48% 9 of 21 4 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 17 6 of 10 3 of 4
2 Sam Hughes 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 13 of 15 86% 10 of 12 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 13 of 15
3 Sam Hughes 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elise Reed 15 of 19 78% 14 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 17
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Sam Hughes

Angelo picks Sam Hughes based on her grappling performance in her last fight, where she showcased takedowns and control time. He notes that Elise Reed was taken down four times in two fights, making the takedown the difference. However, he acknowledges it's a close fight and that Elise Reed is better than people think. He is hesitant because both women are coming off career-saving wins.

"if sam does what she did in her last fight i think she wins this fight forward pressure high volume and takedowns i'm gonna go sam hughes here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Big Brady picks Elise Reed because she is the better striker with improved takedown defense. He notes Sam Hughes is a walking punching bag with poor striking defense, and Reed should win on the feet. He predicts a decision win for Reed but says he is not betting on this fight.

"give me a lease read at least read by decision there's no way i'm betting on this fight but i'll take read by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Cody picks Reed confidently, citing her superior striking, footwork, and cardio. He notes Hughes' lack of offense and tendency to rely on opponents gassing. He believes Reed will outpoint Hughes from range and avoid takedowns, winning a decision.

"i actually don't mind elise reed and minus 165 like okay i think there's some there's some other fights on this card i am way more on the fence about that have worse price tag so i'm willing to give …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Sam Hughes

The host picks Sam Hughes as his free pick of the night at +145. He believes Hughes's path to victory involves grappling, either takedowns or control time against the cage. He expects Hughes to implement her grappling and grind out a win. He is confident enough to bet one unit on her.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"my free pick is sam hughes one unit plus 145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Elise Reed

Paul agrees with Cody, saying Reed's kicking game and cardio should be too much for Hughes. He notes Hughes' only win came against a gassed opponent and that Reed won't tire. He is confident in Reed.

"i like where your head's at on this card i like where your head's at this time around i think you're gonna be good"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Elise Reed

The MMA Guru believes Elise Reed is better on the feet and can mitigate damage on the ground, working her way back up. He thinks Sam Hughes will get takedowns but the damage from Reed's striking will be too much. He predicts a razor close 29-28 decision for Reed.

"i think she's better than sam hughes i think she's better on the fee i think even when she does get taken down she doesn't really get dominated on the ground"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez, believing she is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling. He notes that Sam Hughes has evolved into a grappler and needs takedowns to win, but Piera has good takedown defense and inflicts damage in scrambles. He calls it a no-bet situation because Sam is live, but he might bet Sam Hughes by decision (+3.5 points) if the odds drop.

No bet on moneyline; considering Sam Hughes +3.5 points if odds drop
"I am going to pick Bahia here I think she's gonna stuff some takedowns inflict the damage but this is a no bet situation because Sam Hughes is definitely live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win by decision. He highlights Rodríguez's improved grappling and powerful striking, and notes that Sam Hughes has poor striking defense and takedown defense. He believes Rodríguez is a bad stylistic matchup for Hughes, who relies on grinding but will struggle to get takedowns. Brady expects a competitive fight but sees Rodríguez winning clearly on the feet and possibly with takedowns.

"I like Rodriguez here I like Rodriguez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez, citing her striking advantage and takedown defense. He notes Hughes has been winning with wrestling against weak opposition, but Rodríguez should be able to keep the fight standing and out-strike her. He is hesitant due to Rodríguez's cardio concerns.

"I'm going with uh greasy pierra."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez is the better striker with power and leg kicks, and her wrestling is on par with Hughes. Hughes relies on pressure and wrestling, but Rodríguez should be able to stuff takedowns and win the striking exchanges. The host expects a decision win for Rodríguez and likes the decision prop at +105. However, the odds are slightly wide, and Hughes could be live.

Piera Rodríguez by decision +105
"I do think that uh Pierre is the side here she'll land the better shots she'll have the better moments and I think that should be enough for her to get her hand raised via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul picks Rodríguez but is hesitant. He notes Rodríguez has good takedown defense and a striking advantage, but her cardio and ground game are question marks. He thinks Hughes could tire her out with wrestling, but ultimately Rodríguez should win.

"I'm gonna go with Pierre Rodriguez I think that the takedown defense is good enough the Striking is a slight Advantage."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Piera Rodríguez, noting her undefeated record and experience in main events. He believes she has too much power for Sam Hughes and will drop her in the first round, lose the second, and win the third on pace. He predicts a 29-28 decision, citing Rodríguez's sting in her shots and ability to withstand pressure.

prediction: 29-28 decision
"I'm still gonna go 29-28 Pierre Rodriguez with a little bit too much sting in her shots in the first two rounds to allow the pressure of Sam Hughes to take effect"