vs
-205 +190
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo Next Fight
Age 32
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jonathan Martinez
4.44 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cub Swanson
4.79 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.01 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Jonathan Martinez
Moneyline
FanDuel -205
KO/TKO
BetRivers +285
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +163
Cub Swanson
Moneyline
DraftKings +190
KO/TKO
BetRivers +510
Submission
BetRivers +1700
Decision
FanDuel +460
Jonathan Martinez - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcus McGhee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus McGhee 0 48 of 108 44% 49 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 102 of 223 45% 105 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus McGhee 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcus McGhee 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 42 of 93 45% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcus McGhee 0 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 27 of 55 49% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus McGhee 48 of 108 44% 24 of 76 3 of 8 21 of 24 46 of 105 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 102 of 223 45% 60 of 167 18 of 27 24 of 29 100 of 220 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus McGhee 7 of 18 38% 0 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 33 of 75 44% 17 of 52 5 of 11 11 of 12 33 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marcus McGhee 17 of 47 36% 12 of 38 1 of 4 4 of 5 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 42 of 93 45% 27 of 73 6 of 8 9 of 12 41 of 92 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcus McGhee 24 of 43 55% 12 of 27 1 of 3 11 of 13 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 27 of 55 49% 16 of 42 7 of 8 4 of 5 26 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGhee (-142), Martinez (+120)

Round 1
Feet and fists are sure to fly in the preliminary headliner. The last several stoppage wins for Martinez (19-5, 10-4 UFC) have all come from strikes from his legs, while the hyper-aggressive McGhee (9-1, 3-0 UFC) has used all kinds of weapons to get the job done as of late. Referee Herb Dean will do his best to keep track of these high-speed, elusive bantamweights. Before they begin, Dean is told to examine Martinez’ toenails. He is cleared to go on, with Dean saying he will not clip anything. They share a glove touch before getting down to business. McGhee flips up a high kick and then one down low to say hello with Martinez standing right in front of him. McGhee throws a head kick on the other side, and he lunges forward with a right hand and then jabs with a front kick. A single Martinez leg kick makes McGhee recoil his leg, and this spurs McGhee into action as he starts spamming more kicks. Martinez chips at him with another kick, and McGhee races after him hurling punches. Leg kicks are traded, and McGhee lands at the end of a salvo of punches. McGhee chops at the front leg twice, and the third punch he throws gets through. McGhee strides forward to pitch a head kick, and Martinez parries it without concern but he does not block the follow-up leg kick. Martinez walks McGhee down but is taking fire high and low, and he has not committed to much halfway through the round. McGhee picks at his man from afar, with Martinez unwilling or unable to pull the trigger. McGhee hacks at the front leg and triples up on his jab, where a big left hand does not get through. Martinez maintains heavy pressure and releases a single low kick, and he shoulder rolls to let overhand lefts bounce off him. Leg kicks come from both sides, with McGhee’s volume higher by a factor of at least five. McGhee absorbs a leg kick to throw one back, and he leans back to dodge a flurry and fires back with a vengeance. McGhee jabs to the head and body to end the tentative round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves, and McGhee whips a head kick after. Martinez blocks the first and then the second, keeping his guard up. McGhee chews up his foe’s front leg and body, with Martinez’ blocks effective but counters almost silent. Martinez scores a single leg kick, and McGhee chains a few punches into a kick. Martinez knocks him back with a left hand, but it is one-and-done before McGhee picks up his offense. McGhee plants a one-two on the jaw, and Martinez responses fall flat. Martinez walks into a right hand, and he absorbs a second before throwing back. McGhee reaches his man with a jab, and he uses a side kick to keep Martinez off of him. Martinez spins with a back fist that ricochets off his guard, and he pays Martinez back in spades with a few punches and a kick. When Martinez kicks the front leg, McGhee responds in kind. McGhee puts a couple punches through the guard, getting Martinez’ attention and not giving him much to think about. Martinez manages to sneak in a left hand, but McGhee walks through it as if nothing happened. McGhee’s volume is giving “Dragon” fits, and when he puts power behind a strike, Martinez does not always see it coming. McGhee goes high and opens up a body shot, and he rolls when a left hand thumps him on the temple. Another big left hand from Martinez finds its home, and Martinez celebrates that with a powerful elbow and then a leg kick. Martinez starts picking up the pace, and McGhee appears to be slowing. Martinez misses an elbow by an inch, and they throw hard at one another and cannot score. Martinez sits down on a low kick that draws a limp from his opponent, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to commence the final stanza. Martinez puts himself in close range, letting McGhee hurl punches at and past him. McGhee strafes from side to side, not letting Martinez bear down on him. McGhee triples up on a jab to the body and then head, and he ends the trio with a leg kick. When Martinez kicks him back, McGhee hops to try to avoid it. Martinez slams another leg kick home, and McGhee gets after it with a lengthy combination ending with a low kick. Martinez jabs out and parries the response, and he smashes McGhee’s front leg with a kick. McGhee hobbles away, clearly compromised, and Martinez slams it two more times. McGhee remains on his feet but is in big trouble, struggling to keep his balance even as the damaged limb is behind him. Martinez pushes into a clinch rather than attack the leg further, and the crowd disagrees with this decision and audibly voice their opinions. Martinez keeps tight until pushing off with a minute 50 to go. Martinez connects with a mean leg kick, and McGhee barely escapes. Martinez blasts the rear leg again, and McGhee is in a bad way. Martinez lets fly a kick to the front leg, and McGhee bursts into action swinging with everything he has left. Martinez takes it on the guard and kicks McGhee, and McGhee is shaking his leg to recover it slightly. McGhee’s blitzes do not have near the pop on them as before, allowing Martinez to get right in his face. Martinez whips a kick to the other leg, and McGhee wings a right hand over the top to keep him honest. McGhee strings a few punches together and backpedals fast, and Martinez follows and bashes the wounded leg one last time. The round ends, with McGhee surviving the pain and very likely pulling off the victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)

The Official Result
Marcus McGhee def. Jonathan Martinez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Angelo picks Marcus McGhee, calling himself a fanboy. He highlights McGhee's power, takedowns, and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is a good fighter but may have been frozen by the moment against Aldo. His only concern is McGhee's gas tank, but he is confident McGhee gets it done.

"I am picking Marcus McGee here I think he gets it done I'm pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Big Brady picks Marcus McGhee, highlighting his power, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is chinny, having been knocked out or dropped in several fights, while McGhee lands harder shots and has more ways to win. He also believes McGhee has the volume advantage and can finish Martinez, predicting a second-round knockout.

"I like Marcus McGee here I'll take him to win this fight by knockout I think he finishes Martinez second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Cody picks Marcus McGhee, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling advantage. He notes Martinez is a volume striker who relies on kicks, but McGhee will close the distance and force exchanges in the pocket where his power will be decisive. Cody expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, possibly in the later rounds.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I got Marcus McGee minus 130 minus 140 whatever it is that the numers you're looking at right now um I'll be playing it Maniac McGee That's my boy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing McGhee's athleticism and counter-combination skills. He notes that McGhee knows exactly what he is building with his pressure and that Martinez's kicking game will be neutralized. Connor also mentions that McGhee is a 'sweet guy' and a gym legend, and that this fight could propel him into the top 15.

"Yeah, I agree. He is just such a ridiculous athlete and he has a really good idea of what he is doing with his counter combinations."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Jonathan Martinez as an upset, citing his experience, reach advantage, and kicking game. He notes McGhee's lack of tested competition and vulnerability to body kicks. He believes Martinez will use his kicks to slow McGhee and mix in knees. He acknowledges McGhee's power but trusts Martinez's durability and proven track record.

"Give me uh Jonathan Martinez for this upset here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host notes that people forget Martinez was a favorite against Jose Aldo, and now as an underdog against the hot new prospect McGee, he sees value. He expects Martinez's leg kicks to slow down McGee, allowing Martinez to work his hands in the second and third rounds and win a decision.

betting at plus 110 plus 115
"I have to bet him at this spot especially uh as the underdog here at plus 110 plus 115 as I think his leg kicks will come into play Slow Down Marcus McGee and la Martinez to get to work …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Paul picks Marcus McGhee, agreeing with Cody. He notes McGhee's pressure and power will be too much for Martinez, who tends to retreat when faced with power. Paul expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, and likes McGhee by knockout at plus 225.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I think he McGee just doesn't really show much respect to the jab walks through it gets in tight and just unloads so uh yeah like like McGee quite a bit uh in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez, citing his underrated striking and leg kicks. He believes Martinez's investment shots to the legs will be key against McGhee's movement. He trusts Martinez's durability and expects a close decision win.

decision win
"I'm GNA go against Marcus McGee and I'm gonna pick Jonathan Martinez to win... I think he'll be able to make this one close and I think if it's a close back and forth striking match I trust the investment …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Zane picks McGhee because he believes McGhee's pressure style will stifle Martinez's kicking game. He notes that Martinez is uncomfortable in the pocket and has struggled against pressure fighters like Jose Aldo. Zane thinks McGhee's athleticism and methodical pressure will lead to a win, though he acknowledges Martinez could win early with kicks.

Odds: McGee opened at -124, now -128; Martinez opened +112, now +115. Zane notes the odds reflect the open-endedness but expects the fight to look one-sided.
"I think he is capable of doing that. I think martinez is capable of kind of letting it happen. And if it does happen and it does play out that way I will I would pick McGee with pretty high …"
LOSS vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
WIN vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (leg kick) R2 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 2 36 of 58 62% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Adrian Yañez 0 20 of 72 27% 20 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Adrian Yañez 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 1 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Adrian Yañez 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 36 of 58 62% 7 of 15 0 of 2 29 of 41 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 20 of 72 27% 9 of 59 10 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 30 53% 1 of 5 0 of 2 15 of 23 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 14 of 46 30% 5 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 28 71% 6 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 18 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 6 of 26 23% 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez despite the massive line movement toward Martinez. He believes Yañez's boxing is cleaner and faster, and his 100% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. However, he notes Yañez needs to not be gun-shy after his knockout loss and let his hands go. He expects a great fight and potential Fight of the Night.

"Adrian jannis is going to be the pick but you know we're going to need him to let his hands go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez in a close fight. He thinks Yañez has the volume and power advantage, with great boxing and hand speed, while Martinez relies on kicks. He sees it as a 15-minute striking match that goes to decision, and worries about judges but leans Yañez as a bounce-back spot after his loss to Rob Font.

"I think I'm going to pick Giannis here not a not a ton of confidence because I like Martinez quite a bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez, arguing that Yañez is overhyped and has not faced top competition. He points to Yañez's struggles against Randy Costa and Davey Grant, and his loss to Rob Font. Cody highlights Martinez's five-fight win streak, including a dominant win over Cub Swanson, and believes his jab and kicks will trouble Yañez. He also notes Martinez's improved cardio and seasoning at Factory X.

"Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez as an underdog, surprised at the betting public flipping on him after his loss to Rob Font. He believes Yañez's boxing combinations and power will counter Martinez's kicking game. He expects Yañez to crash the pocket and land a knockout, likely in the first two rounds.

by KO in rounds 1-2
"I was more than happy to take the underdog shot here on yany and uh again surprised at the shortsightedness of the the the betting Community"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Yañez has not been tested by wrestlers and that Martinez could mix in takedowns. He points out that Martinez's kicks can keep the fight at range, neutralizing Yañez's boxing. Paul also mentions that Martinez's volume is lower but his striking is effective, and he expects Martinez to win two of three rounds.

"I'm with you Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over Adrian Yañez. He notes Yañez's boxing is good but he has a weakness against kicks, as shown in his fight with Davey Grant (which he thinks Grant won). He praises Martinez's five-fight win streak, including wins over Cub Swanson and Said Nurmagomedov, and his ability to mix in low kicks. He believes Martinez has better momentum and will be more switched on, winning a close decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Martinez over Adrien yunz I think he's got a lot better momentum right now"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 47 of 78 60% 101 of 134 3 of 9 33% 2 0 4:21
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 55 69% 78 of 96 0 of 1 0% 1 0 6:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 48 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:59
Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 21 61% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Said Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 10 of 18 55% 39 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Said Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 12 83% 35 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 47 of 78 60% 25 of 50 14 of 19 8 of 9 31 of 57 12 of 14 4 of 7
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 55 69% 13 of 25 7 of 8 18 of 22 22 of 37 13 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 21 of 35 60% 8 of 19 8 of 10 5 of 6 14 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 21 61% 4 of 9 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 25 64% 9 of 16 5 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 1
Said Nurmagomedov 15 of 22 68% 6 of 11 1 of 1 8 of 10 8 of 14 4 of 5 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Martinez 10 of 18 55% 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6
Said Nurmagomedov 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier …"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 88 of 154 57% 88 of 154 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 51 of 153 33% 62 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 16 of 56 28% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 20 of 62 32% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 88 of 154 57% 41 of 98 18 of 22 29 of 34 86 of 151 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 51 of 153 33% 33 of 127 15 of 23 3 of 3 48 of 149 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 24 of 40 60% 6 of 17 4 of 5 14 of 18 24 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 36 of 56 64% 18 of 37 5 of 6 13 of 13 34 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 16 of 56 28% 10 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 15 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 28 of 58 48% 17 of 44 9 of 11 2 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 20 of 62 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-150), Medic (+130)

Round 1
The third man inside the cage for this bantamweight contest is Herb Dean. Both men take their time feeling out the other with each fighter looking to find their distance with leg kicks and jabs over the opening minute. Martinez snaps a body kick that lands and Martinez lands a solid counter punch a few moments later. Martinez throws two other kicks that connect and begins walking down Morales. Martinez continues to land damaging leg kicks as Morales is unable to counter. Another leg kick slows down Morales as Martinez remains the aggressor, who is just one step ahead on the feet but not getting his opponent in any real danger. The round ends with Martinez throwing a jumping knee.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 2
Morales throws a leg kick and a right ot the body, but Martinez answers with a leg kick that lands much harder. Martinez lands a couple more whipping leg kicks as he controls the center of the cage. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. They clinch briefly and separate. Morales is struggling to find the range on his attacks. Martinez with another inside low kick. He’s varying his kicks to the legs well, going to both legs and working the inside and outside. Martinez with a kick to the body followed by a front kick down the middle. Morales pressures and eats a knee down the middle from Martinez for his efforts. Martinez with another outside low kick and he avoids the counter from Morales. Morales wings punches moving forward but can’t connect. Martinez whips another outside leg kick, then he follows a knee with a left hand. Martinez shoves his foe away before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 3
Martinez lands a push kick and then connects to Morales’ lead leg with an inside low kick. Morales closes the distance but he gets hit with punches. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. Martinez flicks out a jab and then connects with a left hook to the chin of his opponent. Martinez continues to dictate the range and the tempo of the exchanges. A knee and a left hand from Martinez land flush. Morales is trying to press the action, but Martinez is countering well. A right hand finds the mark for Morales. Martinez sticks a counter left and then throws a high kick that his foe blocks with his forearm. With about a minute remaining, Martinez executes a nicely timed level change for a double-leg takedown. Morales posts and stands against the fence, but Martinez is driving for another takedown, and he dumps Morales on the canvas. Morales reverses into top position but can’t make anything happen before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)

The Official Result
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Vince Morales plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard) - available at BetOnline
"i really want to pick vince morales as an underdog here i think this fight's going to look exactly like jonathan martinez's last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

"i think martinez does win a decision but um i'll be honest i don't really like the price tag of minus 220 but i'll pick on the win and i'll pick him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

"part part of me thinks that jay martin stays the outside chips away and i think that's what everybody's believing like most people are on the same page but uh when i try to think of who who's that guy …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i don't think martinez is going to be as close as people are making it out to be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

"i'm struggling to pull the trigger myself of course underdogs are gonna come through lately i've been picking underdogs it's just the ones i picked and don't come through and the ones i fade do"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

"i'm gonna side with jonathan martinez here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 1 52 of 146 35% 52 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 74 of 144 51% 74 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 9 of 30 30% 9 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 146 35% 34 of 125 8 of 11 10 of 10 50 of 144 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 74 of 144 51% 36 of 92 23 of 34 15 of 18 72 of 139 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 22 of 45 48% 5 of 21 10 of 16 7 of 8 20 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 18 of 49 36% 14 of 43 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 4 of 5 7 of 9 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 25 of 67 37% 17 of 59 5 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 35 of 61 57% 25 of 47 9 of 13 1 of 1 35 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision. He praises Martinez's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He criticizes Perez's recent performance against a 45-year-old Johnny Eduardo, where Perez was outlanded and looked poor on the feet. Brady believes Martinez is younger, improving, and training at a good camp. He thinks Perez's takedown attempts will be ineffective and that Martinez will pick him apart on the feet.

Martinez by decision
"I gotta go martinez here i don't know what it is with perez is he on a decline you know was it the layoff but you know he was on a two-fight losing streak takes a a couple year layoff …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his striking, takedown defense, and youth. He notes Pérez's declining chin, low volume, and poor takedown accuracy. Cody believes Martinez wins by volume and suggests watching weigh-ins due to Martinez's past weight issues.

"i think martinez wins the fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by knockout. He notes Martinez has superior striking and range control, and that Pérez has looked older and less durable. Levi warns that Martinez can be complacent and Pérez could weasel a split decision, but believes Martinez's technique and knees will be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation betting-wise.

"i'm going to go with uh martinez to knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The host is confident in Martinez, citing his length, striking from the outside, and 72% takedown defense. He expects Martinez to keep the fight standing and pick apart Pérez with kicks and punches, similar to his performance against Zviad Lazishvili. He notes Pérez is flat-footed and may struggle to close distance. He predicts a decision win for Martinez.

"i like martinez here -210 is roughly accurate in terms of where i think the odds should be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Martinez, noting his superior striking and takedown defense. He points out Pérez's poor volume and recent KO loss. Paul thinks the line is fair and expects Martinez to win by decision or late stoppage.

"the line the line probably does make sense to be perfectly honest here yeah martinez wins likely by volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by third-round finish. He criticizes Alejandro Pérez's striking, calling it terrible with poor range control, and notes that Pérez was clipped by Johnny Eduardo. He highlights Martinez's takedown defense improvements, as seen against Vince Morales, and believes Martinez will stuff takedowns and beat up Pérez on the feet. The Guru expects Martinez to dominate and potentially finish Pérez in the third round.

third round finish
"i'm gonna bet he stuffs the takedowns and beats up perez and maybe finishes him in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 92 of 188 48% 94 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 63 of 160 39% 66 of 163 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 19 of 46 41% 22 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:30
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 29 of 61 47% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 17 of 51 33% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 92 of 188 48% 65 of 154 14 of 19 13 of 15 92 of 188 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 63 of 160 39% 25 of 115 17 of 22 21 of 23 60 of 153 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 11 of 32 6 of 7 6 of 7 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 19 of 46 41% 7 of 31 3 of 5 9 of 10 18 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 29 of 61 47% 21 of 49 6 of 9 2 of 3 29 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 27 of 63 42% 11 of 45 8 of 9 8 of 9 25 of 59 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 40 of 81 49% 33 of 73 2 of 3 5 of 5 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 17 of 51 33% 7 of 39 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a pick due to lack of information. He notes that Lazishvili is an undefeated LFA champion with a wrestling background, but has not fought in a year and pulled out of a previous fight. Cody speculates that Martinez may open as a slight favorite, but he does not have enough data to make a confident pick.

"no no i really don't there's no price it got announced really late"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Lock picks Martinez based on striking gap and cardio. He notes Lazishvili is a poor striker and Martinez is legitimately good. He expects Martinez to win on the feet and avoid being controlled on the ground. He bet Martinez at +162 and likes the KO prop.

Martinez by KO (if available)
"i like jonathan martinez on this side of things"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a pick, noting that there are no odds yet and the fight was announced late. He defers to Cody for information.

"do you have a any sort of information to throw it at at us on this one"
Cub Swanson - Fight History
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
TKO R1 4:06 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 2 37 of 49 75% 40 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Nate Landwehr 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 37 of 49 75% 23 of 33 7 of 7 7 of 9 35 of 46 0 of 0 2 of 3
Nate Landwehr 15 of 30 50% 9 of 22 1 of 1 5 of 7 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo picks Cub Swanson in his retirement fight, citing his superior technique, fight IQ, and all-around skills. He notes Landwehr's reliance on his chin, which has given out, and believes Swanson is the better fighter everywhere. He expects the crowd support to help in a decision.

"I have to pick Cub Swanson here. Obviously, Nate is very gritty, very tough, but if your chin gives out, your chin gives out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady expects a war, noting both fighters are durable and willing to brawl. He thinks Landwehr could use his grappling to submit Swanson, who has been submitted seven times. He worries about Landwehr's recent knockout losses and damage taken, but leans Landwehr by submission in the second or third round.

third round submission
"I'm going to take Nate Landwehr to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody also picks Swanson, citing Landwehr's loss of speed and durability. He thinks Swanson's speed and volume will be too much for Landwehr, who has been knocked out recently.

"I got to go against the grain, go against my boy... for me, it's going to be a Cup Swanson play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Connor picks Landwehr, arguing that Swanson is too slow now and that Landwehr's pressure and durability will be too much. He notes that Swanson's last fight against Billy Quarantillo was tooth-and-nail, and that Swanson can't move his feet anymore. Connor believes Landwehr is still capable of winning a grimy pocket fight, and that Swanson's age (42) and layoff will catch up to him. He thinks Swanson will end up in Landwehr's kind of fight and get chin-checked.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think he'll beat Nate Landware? This would be a good one to discuss then. Why do you think he'll lose? Uh, Landware is a, not a lot better, but a little bit better of an athlete."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel respects Swanson but thinks Landwehr's pace and calf kicks will be too much for the 42-year-old. He sees Landwehr winning by accumulation of damage or submission.

"I'm going to go Nate Landworth here. I really think that if Nate Lander doesn't get knocked out or badly compromised, his pace is going to be too much for Cub Swanson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Daniel Vreeland picks Nate Landwehr, believing that Landwehr's pressure, leg kicks, and grappling will overwhelm the aging Cub Swanson. He notes that Swanson's cardio fades after the first round and that Landwehr is durable and gets better as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Swanson's retirement fight may be a paycheck fight.

"I think you get me to round two, you get me to round three, and Nate cooks him to the bone. So, I'm going with Nate Landwehr here, and I actually am considering a bet in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Nate Landwehr

The host leans towards Landwehr due to Swanson's long layoff (2 years) at age 42, which could lead to significant decline. He notes Landwehr's more recent fight showed better cardio, while Swanson slowed in his last fights. He also thinks Landwehr is more likely to be fully focused, while Swanson has outside business distractions. However, he acknowledges both fighters are old and inconsistent, so confidence is low.

Likes Landwehr +3.5 on the fight spread; thinks fight likely goes over but warns against betting over due to age.
"I would lean towards Nate Landwehr in this fight for a few reasons. The first being, Cub's coming in on a long layoff. And at 42 years old, you can significantly decline in a very short space of time."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

James picks Cub Swanson, citing his experience in wars and technical striking advantage. He acknowledges Landwehr's pressure but believes Swanson's durability and power will prevail.

"I'm actually going to pick Cub Swanson in this one cuz I feel like he's been there, done it multiple times."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson's technical striking and counter-punching should be the difference. Landwehr is durable but tends to run into shots and has been knocked out recently. Swanson's footwork and experience allow him to land clean counters. Landwehr may try to grapple, but Swanson's defensive grappling is solid. Swanson should get the knockout in his retirement fight.

Swanson wins by knockout
"I think he gets his Swan song in emphatic fashion. And I think he gets a knockout victory over Nate the Train Lanware."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, noting his experience, speed, and training with young killers. He believes Landwehr's durability is declining and Swanson's crisp striking will prevail.

"Honestly, I am going with Cub Swanson. And I just feel like Cub... he's not a little cub anymore. He's Papa Bear Swanson now."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr. He believes Swanson still has it, with recent wins over Billy Quarantillo and a split decision with Andre Fili. He notes Landwehr gets caught and KO'd, and Swanson can land a looping overhand. He predicts a TKO win in round one or two, with Swanson having a retirement send-off.

"I'm going to go with Cub Swanson over Nate Landwehr here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, arguing that Landwehr is too simplistic and one-dimensional. He notes that Swanson still has head movement and pocket comfort, and that Landwehr has no footwork, feints, or subtlety. Zane believes Swanson can outclass Landwehr, comparing it to Swanson fighting a downgraded version of Jeremy Stevens. He acknowledges Swanson's age but thinks his experience and savvy will prevail. He hopes Swanson wins and retires on a high note.

Odds comment: Swanson opened +170, currently -115; Landwehr opened -200, currently -105.
"I think cub can outclass him, honestly. Yeah, I want cub to outclass him."
KO (punch) R3 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 99 of 158 62% 114 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Billy Quarantillo 0 97 of 237 40% 108 of 249 3 of 11 27% 0 0 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 39 of 57 68% 40 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Billy Quarantillo 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
2 Cub Swanson 0 40 of 69 57% 54 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Billy Quarantillo 0 38 of 105 36% 49 of 117 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:38
3 Cub Swanson 1 20 of 32 62% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Billy Quarantillo 0 22 of 44 50% 22 of 44 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 99 of 158 62% 74 of 127 13 of 18 12 of 13 95 of 154 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 97 of 237 40% 65 of 188 20 of 32 12 of 17 91 of 222 6 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 39 of 57 68% 23 of 38 7 of 10 9 of 9 39 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 37 of 88 42% 22 of 66 6 of 10 9 of 12 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 40 of 69 57% 35 of 61 4 of 6 1 of 2 36 of 65 4 of 4 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 38 of 105 36% 31 of 91 6 of 12 1 of 2 32 of 91 6 of 14 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 20 of 32 62% 16 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 20 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Billy Quarantillo 22 of 44 50% 12 of 31 8 of 10 2 of 3 22 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo leans toward Quarantillo because he will be a touch faster with better movement, but he acknowledges Cub Swanson's toughness and all-around skills. He notes Quarantillo's aggression, BJJ, and volume striking, while Swanson is old and slow but still dangerous. He is considering betting the over 1.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 spread on Swanson, expecting a close decision.

Considering over 1.5 rounds and plus 3.5 spread on Cub Swanson.
"For pick purposes... I am going to lean Billy but there's two bets... I'm going to hammer the over cuz I do think this fight's going to go to decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by third-round submission. He thinks Quarantillo's pressure, volume, and grappling can break Swanson, especially if he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Swanson has been submitted many times. However, he worries about Quarantillo's chin and durability, as Swanson still has power.

"I'll take Billy Q here I'll take Billy q and I think he wins this fight by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody picks Billy Quarantillo, citing his high volume striking (7.36 strikes per minute), pressure, and submission threat. He notes Cub Swanson's age (41), mileage, and recent losses, and believes Billy's pace and durability will overwhelm Cub. Cody also mentions the hometown advantage for Billy in Tampa.

"I got Billy it feels like I'm going to have to trust Billy a little more this week than I'd like to."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Connor also picks Swanson, citing that Quarantillo's style is similar to Colby Covington's and ages out quickly. He notes that Swanson is still sharp and dangerous, with better boxing and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not a reliable path to victory. Connor thinks Quarantillo may be 'shot' and that Swanson's experience will prevail.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to pick him too. If nothing else, I'm going to do it for the old man out there."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Vreeland picks Cub Swanson for the upset, despite being a fan of Billy Quarantillo. He argues that Quarantillo's comeback style relies on taking damage early, and at 36, that may be harder to sustain. Vreeland notes Swanson's speed, accuracy, and experience in wars, comparing this to Swanson's fight against Darren Elkins. He believes Swanson will land significant damage before Quarantillo can drag him into deep waters.

"I'm goingon go with Cub Swanson for the upset"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Lucrative James picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, acknowledging it's a close fight. He believes Swanson has more knockout upside early and can land heavy shots to stop Quarantillo's pressure. He notes Swanson's veteran savvy and power, but admits concerns about Swanson's age (41) and potential cardio decline. He sees value in Swanson at plus odds, though he is not fully confident.

"I'm going to go with the underdog in this one I'm going to go with Cub Swanson I think he's got more knockout upside early."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's relentless and smothering grappling style will cause Cub Swanson trouble. He will crowd Swanson's space, jump on his back, and sink in a rear-naked choke, with the finish coming within 10 minutes.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 1 or 2
"cornello has the Relentless and smothering grappling style to cause Cub Swanson a lot of trouble obviously Swanson will be the better Striker here but look for this corano to crowd his space eventually jumping on the back of Cub …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul picks Billy Quarantillo but with some hesitation. He notes that Billy's pace can be stifled by wrestling, but Cub Swanson is unlikely to use that approach. Paul sees it as a standup affair where Billy's volume and pressure should win out, though he acknowledges Cub's toughness and the possibility of a competitive first round.

"I have a little bit of concern with Billy I I mean I guess the one thing that keeps his Pace off is when his opponent's able to wrestle him and I really don't think Cub Swanson's going to be …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson as an underdog, calling Billy Quarantillo 'absolute garbage'. He criticizes Quarantillo's lack of explosiveness and poor distance management, and notes that Swanson has better hands, power, and body work. He predicts Swanson will target the body and possibly get a body shot TKO in round two. He also notes that Quarantillo has been exposed in recent fights.

body shot TKO in round two
"I'm going to lean towards Cub Swanson I could even see a body shot TKO I know I predict a body shot TKO nearly every card but this is the one I'm predicting for this card body shot TKO Cubs …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson because Quarantillo's pressure style is aging poorly and he has been getting hurt and finished in recent fights. He notes that Swanson still has solid boxing fundamentals and power, and that Quarantillo's wrestling is not good enough to control Swanson, who is active off his back. Zane believes Quarantillo's style is falling apart.

Swanson opened at +137, now +136; Quarantillo opened at -153, now -152
"I'm going to take Cub. I just don't think Quarantillo is a good enough wrestler for me to pick him to out grapple Cub."
LOSS vs Andre Fili
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andre Fili 0 62 of 111 55% 90 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
Cub Swanson 0 67 of 147 45% 70 of 151 2 of 11 18% 0 0 3:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andre Fili 0 20 of 31 64% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 42 42% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Andre Fili 0 12 of 29 41% 22 of 39 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
Cub Swanson 0 18 of 35 51% 18 of 35 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:27
3 Andre Fili 0 30 of 51 58% 48 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Cub Swanson 0 31 of 70 44% 33 of 73 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andre Fili 62 of 111 55% 43 of 86 7 of 11 12 of 14 53 of 101 9 of 10 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 67 of 147 45% 49 of 118 13 of 22 5 of 7 52 of 126 15 of 21 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andre Fili 20 of 31 64% 9 of 18 3 of 4 8 of 9 18 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 42 42% 12 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 3 13 of 36 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Andre Fili 12 of 29 41% 11 of 27 0 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 18 of 35 51% 14 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Andre Fili 30 of 51 58% 23 of 41 4 of 6 3 of 4 24 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 31 of 70 44% 23 of 58 5 of 8 3 of 4 24 of 61 7 of 9 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andre Fili

Cody picks Fili but is not confident due to his recent knockout losses. He notes that Fili is younger and faster, but his chin is questionable. Cody believes Fili's volume and wrestling could give him an edge, but acknowledges that Swanson is a fan favorite who often gets close decisions. He warns that Fili needs to finish Swanson to avoid a controversial decision loss.

"I think Fili because he's younger, a little faster... I still side with him here but the line is again..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel is picking Swanson as a plus 210 underdog, citing Swanson's path to victory via knockout and his strong performance against Hakim Dawodu at similar odds. He notes that Fili is hot and cold and can be chinned. He envisions a retirement moment for Swanson where he knocks out Fili and puts his gloves down in the Octagon.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson here to have like a Robbie Lawler vs Nico Price type retirement moment where he goes out there knocks out Fely puts his gloves down."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The host picks Fili to win on the scorecards, but criticizes the -260 line as too high, saying Fili should be closer to -150 or -180. He expects a competitive striking battle that goes to decision, and recommends the over 2.5 rounds at -110. He notes Swanson is a live underdog at +210.

over 2.5 rounds at -110
"I will pick him to win this fight though... I think it's ultimately uh phy who ends wins this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Swanson, citing his experience and durability. He notes that Swanson has a history of winning close decisions and that Fili has been knocked out recently. Paul believes Swanson's volume and toughness will be key, and that he can win a decision or even catch Fili with a knockout. He also mentions that Swanson is a fan favorite, which may help in a close fight.

"I think it's a pretty clear dogger pass, Cub Swanson for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andre Fili

The Guru picks Andre Fili over Cub Swanson. He believes Fili is bigger, stronger, and more explosive at this stage. He notes Swanson's age (40) and size disadvantage. He likes Fili's low kicks and thinks he can finish Swanson by TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Andre Philly... TKO"
WIN vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. dos Anjos · Aug 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 0 77 of 156 49% 107 of 195 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Hakeem Dawodu 0 95 of 176 53% 129 of 224 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 56 51% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cub Swanson 0 28 of 51 54% 52 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Hakeem Dawodu 0 29 of 55 52% 48 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
3 Cub Swanson 0 26 of 63 41% 32 of 74 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:21
Hakeem Dawodu 0 37 of 65 56% 52 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 77 of 156 49% 41 of 112 27 of 31 9 of 13 59 of 135 18 of 21 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 95 of 176 53% 41 of 104 29 of 37 25 of 35 79 of 158 16 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 23 of 42 54% 11 of 25 8 of 10 4 of 7 23 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 56 51% 9 of 28 8 of 9 12 of 19 29 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 28 of 51 54% 19 of 42 8 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 39 10 of 12 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 29 of 55 52% 13 of 33 10 of 13 6 of 9 20 of 44 9 of 11 0 of 0
3 Cub Swanson 26 of 63 41% 11 of 45 11 of 13 4 of 5 18 of 54 8 of 9 0 of 0
Hakeem Dawodu 37 of 65 56% 19 of 43 11 of 15 7 of 7 30 of 58 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Angelo picks Dawodu based on age and speed, noting Swanson looked old in his last fight. He acknowledges Swanson could win via takedowns and decision, but leans Dawodu.

"dawood is going to be the pick here but that is based purely on age and speed"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Big Brady picks Hakeem Dawodu to knock out Cub Swanson in the second round. He notes Swanson's age (39) and recent durability issues, especially in the Jonathan Martinez fight where he was hurt to the head, body, and legs. He believes Dawodu's mixing of strikes will wear down Swanson and lead to a finish. He expects this to be Swanson's retirement fight.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take Akeem to knock out Swanson here um probably second round I think it's going to be attritional"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody is torn on this fight. He notes Cub Swanson is nearing 40 and coming off a brutal loss to Jonathan Martinez, but also has a history of pulling off upsets. He criticizes Hakeem Dawodu's low output and lack of finishing ability, but acknowledges Cub's age and damage. He ultimately decides to pass on betting, saying he has other underdogs he prefers.

"I don't know if I'm gonna get there I'm taking some other underdogs on the car I'm not supposed to send it here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

James picks Dawodu, believing Swanson is past his prime. He thinks Dawodu is the better striker now with better durability, though he notes Dawodu's chin is questionable. James sees little path for Swanson to win, as he doesn't think Swanson can grapple or out-strike Dawodu. He mentions Swanson could land a knockout due to his unorthodox style, but overall favors Dawodu clearly.

"I think Swanson's past it... I think Dawodu is the clear side in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

Dawodu is a technical striker who uses combination striking and kicks. Swanson is 40 and on a 3-6 run over his last nine, with wins over sketchy competition. Dawodu should land the more impactful strikes and get the nod from judges. However, Swanson's unorthodox style could make it closer than the odds suggest.

"I still feel like dawado should be able to do what he needs to do to get his hand raised I just want none of that chalky price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Aug 9, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul picks Cub Swanson but with low confidence. He thinks the line is accurate and would prefer Dawodu at a better price. He sees Cub having a puncher's chance and notes that if Dawodu fights at his usual low volume, Cub could outwork him and eke out a decision. However, he admits he's not confident and has other underdogs he'd rather bet.

"I suppose I will select Cub for the purposes of this show but I have other underdogs that I'm wasting money on this week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Hakeem Dawodu

The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu over Cub Swanson, citing Swanson's accumulated damage and small size for featherweight. He notes Dawodu's strength and clinch work, predicting he will hurt Swanson to the body with knees and get a finish in the third round. He references Swanson's past body-shot losses to Tatsuya Kawajiri and Max Holloway.

Finish in the third round by knees to the body
"I'm gonna go Hakeem dawa do over Cub Swanson"
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Darren Elkins
TKO (spinning wheel kick and punches) R1 2:12 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 18 of 30 60% 18 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Darren Elkins 0 2 of 19 10% 5 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 18 of 30 60% 16 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 16 of 26 0 of 0 2 of 4
Darren Elkins 2 of 19 10% 2 of 18 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.

moneyline bet at +170
"i do have a money line bet on darren elkins and that's mostly because the odds were so good i mean plus 170 is crazy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.

decision
"give me swanson to win give me swanson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.

Swanson by decision +150
"I will take cup swanson he's the official pick I don't like that price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.

Swanson by decision; fight doesn't go to decision (if Elkins submits)
"I am going to pick Cub to win but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't sketched out if Elkins got on top of him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.

"cub swanson is going to dominate this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cub Swanson

The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.

Swanson by KO (+250); parlay Swanson + Barcelos (-102)
"I like cub swanson by ko i think that's very live in this situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.

"I'm going to actually have to watch the fight and I'm going to try to bet it live because I know that swanston doesn't have cardio issues but darren is just he's a guy that has made me a bunch …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.

"i'm going with cub swanson here over darren elkins"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

"i'm going to take ciacatse to win by a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

dogger pass (betting recommendation)
"for our last show in the studio i'll label this one a dogger pass dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

"i'm gonna go with giga to land the harder shots the more impactful shots and i think he's gonna announce himself as a contender at 145 pounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Giga Chikadze by decision at +170
"I like giga here it's crazy that the line is continuing to move towards the cub swanson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

"yeah not a great lean either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna pick giga chickety to shop at those legs land good shots and just have cubs cub swanson limping around for the entire fight"
WIN vs Daniel Pineda
KO (punches) R2 1:52 · UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Dec 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cub Swanson 2 46 of 66 69% 51 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Daniel Pineda 0 21 of 45 46% 40 of 65 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cub Swanson 1 31 of 47 65% 34 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Daniel Pineda 0 16 of 30 53% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:08
2 Cub Swanson 1 15 of 19 78% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Pineda 0 5 of 15 33% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cub Swanson 46 of 66 69% 35 of 51 7 of 11 4 of 4 37 of 54 3 of 3 6 of 9
Daniel Pineda 21 of 45 46% 9 of 28 3 of 4 9 of 13 19 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cub Swanson 31 of 47 65% 23 of 36 4 of 7 4 of 4 23 of 36 3 of 3 5 of 8
Daniel Pineda 16 of 30 53% 6 of 17 2 of 3 8 of 10 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Cub Swanson 15 of 19 78% 12 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Daniel Pineda 5 of 15 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 3 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.

Pineda inside the distance +140
"i'm going to take pineda to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.

submission win
"imma go with pineda to get his 20th submission win i think he catches cub somewhere along the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; Pineda inside the distance, likely second round
"i'm taking pineda via finnish probably second round... i truly think that he'll be able to get swanson down time and time again and get that damage in"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.

"i'm gonna go with cub swanson getting the job done against daniel pineda i like daniel pineda but i think people are just looking at his herbert burns win"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."