UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira as an underdog, having bet on him at +135. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and grappling are too much for Anthony Hernandez, whose only path to victory is grappling. He thinks Pereira is the more dynamic and dangerous fighter, and that Hernandez cannot out-strike him. He notes Pereira's recent success at middleweight and dismisses cardio concerns, saying Pereira has shown he can maintain pace. He is confident Pereira wins.

Big Brady picks Anthony Hernandez by third-round submission. He sees it as Pereira early, Hernandez late. Pereira has three quick wins but gasses; Hernandez has great cardio and grappling. If Hernandez survives the first five to seven minutes, he will take over, take Pereira down, and finish him in the third round. He mentions a good live bet spot.

Connor picks Hernandez, comparing his style to a larger, more skilled Tristan Connelly who will make Pereira pay for every bad decision. He notes that Hernandez's pace and pressure grappling are exactly the kind of game that troubled Pereira in the past. However, he acknowledges that Hernandez might get knocked out early, as he has been hurt in many of his recent wins.

Lucrative James believes Fluffy Hernandez will overwhelm Sean Strickland with constant forward pressure, takedown attempts, and volume. He notes that Strickland struggles when opponents don't let him establish his jab and one-two rhythm. James predicts Hernandez will win a decision by outworking Strickland over five rounds.

Pereira will be dangerous in the opening five minutes, but Hernandez has done a great job wearing opponents down, keeping them in the clinch, taking them down, and utilizing submission attempts. Hernandez will wear Pereira down and get a finish in the third or fourth round.

The Guru picks Pereira despite acknowledging Hernandez's grappling skills. He believes Pereira's athleticism, power, and body work will be too much, predicting an early finish by TKO or submission. He notes Pereira has finished all his middleweight opponents quickly and envisions Pereira stuffing a takedown, landing knees to the body, and getting a guillotine or rear-naked choke.

Zane picks Pereira because of his insane speed at middleweight, which he believes Hernandez will not be ready for. He acknowledges that if Hernandez survives the early onslaught, he will likely take over with pressure and grappling, but Zane trusts Pereira's athleticism to get the job done early. He notes that Pereira has learned to pace himself after the Tristan Connelly loss, but still has that loss in him.

Angelo picks Kyler Phillips, citing the decline of the New England Cartel's takedown defense. He notes Rob Font's vulnerability to wrestling and believes Phillips' diverse striking and wrestling will make Font look old and slow. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns and win comfortably. He criticizes the New England Cartel's inability to evolve.

Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips by any method. He notes Font's durability is diminishing, he gets wobbled often, and has poor takedown defense. Phillips can win on the feet or by takedown. He expects Phillips to get it done, possibly by knockout, submission, or decision, given Font's toughness.

Connor also picks Phillips but with hesitation, noting that Phillips' early speed and variety are key, but he fades late. He thinks Font could come on strong in the third round if Phillips hasn't put him away. Connor is not fully convinced about Phillips yet, but sees the takedowns and speed as enough to win over three rounds.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Font has been on a bad slump. His volume style can be effective, but Phillips will land more significant strikes and mix in takedowns. Phillips will grind out a win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Phillips over Font, citing Font's susceptibility to being grappled and his age (37). He notes Phillips has explosive takedowns and offensive grappling, as shown against Pedro Munhoz, and trains with Sean O'Malley. He expects Phillips to mix things up and win a decision, though he acknowledges Font is a good boxer.

Zane picks Phillips, citing his speed and variety early in the fight to stump Font for two rounds. He acknowledges that Phillips tends to fade in the third round, but believes Font's linear style and lack of adaptability will allow Phillips to build an insurmountable lead. He notes that Phillips may also use takedowns, though that could gas him.

Angelo is very confident in Charles Johnson, citing his high output, technical striking, and ability to maintain pace for 15 minutes. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense is untested (only one takedown attempt in UFC) and that Johnson has survived tough moments before. He expects Johnson to pressure forward, be the cleaner striker, and take over as the fight goes on. He also mentions Johnson's activity and recent success.

Big Brady picks Charles Johnson by second-round submission. He highlights Sumudaerji's poor takedown defense and six submission losses. Johnson has good wrestling and submission attempts, though no UFC submission wins. He warns that if Johnson strikes, it's a different fight, but expects him to mix in takedowns and submit Sumudaerji.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Johnson as a craftsman who should handle Sumudaerji's straightforward style. He notes that Sumudaerji lacks footwork to be a true sniper and that Johnson is durable and calculating. He expects Johnson to get on his front foot and take over in round two.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Both are strikers, but Johnson has a better gas tank, better discipline striking, and good enough footwork and defensive striking to stay away from Sumudaerji's power. Johnson will chip away and win by decision or get a late finish.

The Guru picks Charles Johnson despite not liking him personally, citing Johnson's recent momentum and wins over Joshua Van and Jake Hadley. He criticizes Sumudaerji's lack of power and relevant wins, noting he was dominated by Tim Elliott and struggled against Matt Schnell. He believes Johnson can take the fight to the ground if needed and predicts a later-rounds finish.

Zane picks Johnson, expecting him to calculate and counter Sumudaerji's linear, lunging strikes. He notes that Sumudaerji is a one-track fighter who backs straight out after throwing, and Johnson's durability and craftiness should allow him to take over in round two. He acknowledges that Johnson might be lackadaisical against a less dangerous opponent.

Angelo picks Cameron Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand, but the fight is Smotherman vs Hadley; likely a transcript error) because he believes Smotherman's wrestling, size, and strength will be too much for Jake Hadley. He notes Hadley's win over Ken Laramie was more about Laramie's poor performance than Hadley's skill. He thinks Smotherman's grit and takedown ability will dominate, and he expects the odds to widen further.

Big Brady picks Jake Hadley by second-round submission. He notes Smotherman has a questionable chin and non-existent takedown defense. Hadley can take him down easily and has a big BJJ advantage. He expects Hadley to make it look easy, possibly finishing by submission in the second round.

Connor also picks Hadley, emphasizing that Smotherman's lack of movement and poor defense make him a perfect opponent for Hadley's slick offensive boxing. He notes that Smotherman's only path to victory is if opponents let him pressure them, but Hadley will pour on volume and not be intimidated.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Hadley has a big grappling advantage and Smotherman is taking this fight on short notice, having to cut to 135 lbs and flying from Abu Dhabi. Hadley is the better grappler and should have no problems taking the fight to the ground where Smotherman has shown issues. Look for Hadley to get a submission.

The Guru picks Smotherman (referred to as Brady Hiestand) despite acknowledging that picking against Jake Hadley often backfires. He notes Smotherman is bigger and has more experience, and expects him to lead the dance with pressure and cardio, winning a 29-28 decision by taking over in the last two rounds. He doubts Hadley's offensive grappling and sees him looking for submissions from bottom.

Zane picks Hadley, noting that Smotherman is extremely flat-footed and stands still, making him an easy target for Hadley's offensive boxing. He compares Smotherman to a statue who gets clocked when facing speed. Hadley's last fight against a similar flat-footed opponent (Caolan Loughran) went well, and this matchup is even more forgiving.

Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.

Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.

The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.

Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.

Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.

Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.

The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.

Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.

Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto but is hesitant, acknowledging that Brad Katona is a tough, durable fighter who could spoil the plans. He notes Matsumoto's well-rounded skills, BJJ black belt, and Muay Thai, but also points out that he was taken down nine times by Dan Argueta and nearly lost. He thinks Matsumoto's volume and willingness to let his hands go will be key, but he is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. He is considering a plus 3.5 round prop on Katona or the over 1.5 rounds.

Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto by decision. He acknowledges Katona's high fight IQ and ability to win minutes, but believes Matsumoto will be the more active striker and do more damage. He compares it to Katona's loss to Garrett Armfield, where Katona was out-struck. He expects a competitive fight but Matsumoto's damage will win the decision.

Connor also picks Matsumoto, citing Katona's tendency to have a bad start and not dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a strong athlete who will come forward, but acknowledges that Katona is tough and often comes on strong late. Connor sees it as a mirror match and a split decision possibility, but leans Matsumoto due to his physical advantages.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Katona is a high-IQ fighter, but Matsumoto has good enough defensive grappling to keep the fight upright and utilize his striking advantage to touch up Katona en route to a decision victory. The line is a bit wide, so there could be some Katona value on his underdog line, but Matsumoto is more dangerous in the striking realm.

The Guru is impressed by Matsumoto's debut win over Dan Argueta, noting he looked amazing and showed talent. He criticizes Brad Katona's wins as being over low-level opponents and points out Katona's short reach. He believes Matsumoto, an undefeated 25-year-old prospect with a full training camp, will get the win.

Zane picks Matsumoto mainly because he expects Katona to have a slow start, as Katona often lets physically imposing fighters dictate the early going. He notes that Matsumoto is a powerful athlete who will blitz with power, but acknowledges that Katona has a good jab and could jab Matsumoto up. Zane sees it as a real 50-50 toss-up and doesn't feel great about the pick.

Angelo is high on Joselyne Edwards, praising her kickboxing, range management, and grit. He acknowledges her takedown defense is a weakness but thinks she can keep the fight standing by using leg kicks to slow down Tamires Vidal's pressure. He notes Vidal's striking is almost non-existent and she has lost to BJJ specialists recently. He believes Edwards can dance around on the outside and pick Vidal apart, making Edwards the pick. He also sees the over 2.5 rounds as safe.

Big Brady picks Joselyne Edwards by third-round TKO. He criticizes Vidal's quit in previous fights, poor cardio, and durability. He believes Edwards is better everywhere and can finish Vidal, possibly due to a quit job. He notes Edwards often goes to split decision but expects a finish here.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Edwards. He notes that Edwards is a better athlete and has an instinct to get back when someone has success against her. He thinks Vidal is a bully who doesn't want to try hard and will likely lose to Edwards' size and power.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Edwards has the technical striking advantage over the slugger Vidal, but a grapple-heavy approach could open up a submission opportunity. Edwards will defeat Vidal inside the distance.

The Guru flips a tin of multivitamins to decide but ultimately picks Joselyne Edwards based on her experience and wins in the UFC. He notes Vidal is huge for the weight class but hasn't proven she is good. He considers Edwards rangy and closer to her prime.

Zane picks Edwards because she is bigger and a better athlete than Vidal. He notes that Edwards has an instinct to answer back when hit, which he thinks will break Vidal's spirit. He criticizes Vidal for quitting in fights and lacking courage, and believes Edwards' size and awkwardness on the ground will be too much for Vidal.

Angelo picks Elise Reed because he believes Jessica Penne, at 41 years old and coming off a disinterested performance, is not fully committed to fighting anymore. He notes Reed's busy striking, good cardio, and inconsistency but thinks she is the hungrier fighter. He sees value at -150 and also likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safe bet. He speculates Penne is more focused on her post-fighting career and won't have the same drive.

Big Brady picks Jessica Penne by first-round submission. He highlights Reed's terrible ground game, with four submission losses, and Penne's BJJ black belt. He notes Penne is 41 and coming off a layoff, but if she gets the fight to the mat, she will submit Reed. He is surprised Reed is favored.

Connor picks Reed, though he doesn't feel good about it. He notes that Reed has natural power and can crack, and that she has been able to win fights despite her flaws. He acknowledges that Reed often stops fighting after hurting opponents, but thinks she might be able to knock Penne out or do enough to win.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Reed is a striker and can keep the fight upright enough to batter Penne and win on the scorecards. However, Penne winning by submission at +500 is a tempting sprinkle, as it could take just one back take or takedown for Penne to utilize her jiu-jitsu advantage. The official prediction is Reed by decision.

The Guru initially does not want to pick Jessica Penne due to her age (41) and recent losses, but after considering that Elise Reed is 'garbage' and Penne is taller and rangier, he decides to take the underdog. He admits he doesn't normally check odds beforehand but notes Penne is an underdog and goes with her.

Zane picks Penne because he believes Reed will not be consistent enough to keep Penne at range. He notes that Reed has a tendency to stop fighting after landing a big shot, and that Penne is hittable and predictable, but Reed doesn't have the footwork to stay away. He thinks Penne will eventually tangle up with Reed and get the grappling exchange she wants.

Angelo leans towards Alice Ardelean, citing her constant forward pressure, threat of takedowns, and the fact that she's coming off a short-notice win he thought she deserved. He notes Melissa Martinez is returning from a two-year layoff due to a knee injury, which could be a factor. However, he is hoping the line moves so Martinez becomes a big favorite, allowing him to bet on Ardelean via a plus 3.5 round spread. He is not fully confident in the moneyline pick but sees value in the prop.

Big Brady picks Alice Ardelean by decision, but is hesitant. He notes Martinez has poor takedown defense and ground game, as seen in her loss to Elise Reed, and Ardelean can replicate that. However, Martinez has been away for two years and may have improved. He doubts he'll bet on this fight.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Martinez. He notes that Ardelean's game falls apart after five minutes, while Martinez doesn't fall apart. He thinks Martinez can survive the early aggression and take over as Ardelean tires.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Martinez has a striking advantage but will struggle with the aggressiveness and grappling of Ardelean. Ardelean should be able to wrangle Martinez, drag her to the ground, and keep her in uncomfortable positions. If Ardelean showcases a more assertive approach like she did in the first and second round of her last matchup, she should get the win on the scorecards.

The Guru initially considers Melissa Martinez due to her youth but ultimately picks Alice Ardelean as a decent underdog. He notes Ardelean looked okay against Shauna Bannon and trains at a decent gym, while Martinez lost to Elise Reed in her debut. He expects Ardelean to be too physical and get takedowns.

Zane picks Martinez because she doesn't fall apart as the fight goes on, unlike Ardelean who gets tired after five minutes. He notes that Ardelean's aggression will likely lead to clinch exchanges, and Martinez is well-equipped to survive early aggression. He thinks Martinez's durability and ability to maintain will be key.

Angelo believes the UFC is setting up Robelis Despaigne to become a superstar by giving him a favorable matchup against Austen Lane, who has a weak chin and was recently knocked out. He notes Despaigne's Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and athleticism, but acknowledges his cardio issues and takedown defense problems from his last fight. Angelo thinks Despaigne will knock out Lane early, as Lane's chin is suspect and Despaigne's power is overwhelming. He calls the -400 line a discount and expects Despaigne to win easily.

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne by first-round knockout. He notes Despaigne's incredible power, with multiple knockouts under 20 seconds, and points out that Lane has five knockout losses, four in the first round. He doubts Lane can get the fight to the mat or keep it there past seven and a half minutes, so he sees a clear path for Despaigne.

Connor agrees, picking Despaigne. He notes that Lane is an NFL player who doesn't like fighting and has no heart, while Despaigne has a plan and confidence. He points out that Lane got knocked out by Greg Hardy in a minute, showing he's not cut out for MMA.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Despaigne is a bad matchup for Lane, who has been knocked out in several fights. Despaigne can utilize his quick finishing approach to find Lane's chin. However, at the chalky price, Despaigne is not worth a shot; leaning on his round one prop is the best way to get bang for your buck.

The Guru picks Despaigne despite his last loss, noting that he wasn't finished and that his opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a proven heavyweight. He highlights Despaigne's size and power advantage, and points out Austen Lane's history of getting knocked out by big hitters. He believes Despaigne has been working on takedown defense and will get a first-round TKO.

Zane picks Despaigne because he sees Lane as a fighter who doesn't like fighting and has no game. He notes that in their last fights, Despaigne was taken down but came back strong in round two, while Lane was dead after round one. Zane believes Despaigne's confidence and plan will prevail over Lane's lack of heart.