Career Averages - Darren Elkins
Career Averages - Daniel Pineda
Darren Elkins
Daniel Pineda
Darren Elkins - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 18 of 45 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Julian Erosa | 0 | 54 of 73 | 73% | 69 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 13 of 31 | 41% | 11 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Julian Erosa | 54 of 73 | 73% | 52 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 39 | 11 of 12 | 21 of 22 |
Connor also picks Julian Erosa, agreeing that Elkins' recent wins have come against fighters who implode. He notes that Erosa's front-headlock game is actually sound and that he is a momentum fighter who builds as the fight goes on. Connor believes Elkins will look old and shot in this matchup, similar to the Cub Swanson fight.
Daniel Levi states that Julian Erosa did exactly what he was supposed to do as a big favorite, handling the older veteran Darren Elkins. He approves of the performance.
Zane picks Julian Erosa, arguing that Darren Elkins only beats fighters who implode, and Erosa does not tend to do that. He notes that Elkins has lost speed, durability, and strength, and that Erosa's momentum-based game will overwhelm him. Zane acknowledges Erosa's vulnerability to early knockouts but doubts Elkins has the power to capitalize.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 102 of 170 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 6:33 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 61 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 3:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:07 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 27 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 39 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 78 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 70 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 |
| Daniel Pineda | 31 of 53 | 58% | 21 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 13 of 15 | 86% | 12 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 12 of 24 | 50% | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 17 of 33 | 51% | 12 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.
Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.
The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.
Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 95 of 146 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 | 1 | 8:09 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 45 of 86 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 53 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:32 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 28 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2:49 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 32 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:48 |
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 11 of 33 | 33% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 15 of 50 | 30% | 11 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 11 | 18% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 16 | 43% | 4 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 9 of 29 | 31% | 7 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| T.J. Brown | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.
Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.
The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.
Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.
The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 57 of 193 | 29% | 67 of 203 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 110 of 222 | 49% | 154 of 276 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 11 of 57 | 19% | 14 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 35 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 15 of 47 | 31% | 22 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 44 of 68 | 64% | 74 of 106 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:29 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Pearce | 0 | 31 of 89 | 34% | 31 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 45 of 100 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Pearce | 57 of 193 | 29% | 47 of 176 | 9 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 49 of 177 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 110 of 222 | 49% | 80 of 188 | 18 of 22 | 12 of 12 | 66 of 159 | 14 of 20 | 30 of 43 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Pearce | 11 of 57 | 19% | 9 of 51 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 30 of 64 | 46% | 16 of 47 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Jonathan Pearce | 15 of 47 | 31% | 14 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 37 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 44 of 68 | 64% | 37 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 27 | 8 of 10 | 23 of 31 | |
| 3 | Jonathan Pearce | 31 of 89 | 34% | 24 of 82 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 85 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Darren Elkins | 36 of 90 | 40% | 27 of 80 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Jonathan Pearce, trusting him to wrestle early and use his power and grappling. He notes Pearce is a good size favorite and should be, but expresses concern that Pearce was taken down three times in his last fight, and Darren Elkins will be looking for takedowns. He believes Pearce needs to grapple first and not wait for Elkins, otherwise Elkins could control the fight and win a decision.
Big Brady picks Pearce, citing his youth (eight years younger) and less wear and tear. He notes both fighters have similar styles but Pearce has better cardio and takedown ability. He expects Pearce to win a decision, though he acknowledges Elkins is tough and could have moments.
Cody picks Pearce, seeing it as a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling and pace, and Elkins' age and damage. He thinks Pearce will win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Jonathan Pearce, agreeing that Elkins is declining and that Pearce is too young and athletic. He notes that Pearce won't be afraid to grapple and is a giant at featherweight, making it a bad matchup for Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Pearce, calling it a passing of the torch. He notes Pearce's wrestling, cardio, and output, and believes Elkins' damage over the years is a factor. He is not betting at the heavy price but is confident in the pick.
The host is confident in Pearce, calling it a horrible matchup for Elkins. He thinks Pearce's speed, power, and youth will overwhelm Elkins early. He expects a first-round finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds at minus 135 as a steal. He notes that Pearce has all the advantages except heart, which won't be enough for Elkins.
Paul picks Elkins hesitantly, thinking the price is too wide. He notes Elkins' durability and pace, and Pierce's questionable cardio. He likes Elkins by decision at +800 as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Pearce as a lock of the card, citing Darren Elkins' decline in speed and performance. He notes Elkins has looked slower in recent fights and that Pearce is a tough, momentum-driven fighter who has been melting opponents. He predicts a dominant decision or late TKO for Pearce.
Zane picks Jonathan Pearce, stating that Elkins is in decline and has been toughing out wins against lesser competition. He notes that Pearce is younger, bigger, and won't crumble; he will play his own game rather than being drawn into Elkins' strengths.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 75 of 151 | 49% | 165 of 259 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 7:52 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 66 of 117 | 56% | 106 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 55 of 84 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 34 of 50 | 68% | 37 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 70 of 105 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Tristan Connelly | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 43 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 75 of 151 | 49% | 66 of 141 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 38 of 107 | 29 of 34 | 8 of 10 |
| Tristan Connelly | 66 of 117 | 56% | 48 of 96 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 87 | 21 of 27 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 19 of 39 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
| Tristan Connelly | 7 of 18 | 38% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 28 of 56 | 50% | 27 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 42 | 11 of 13 | 1 of 1 |
| Tristan Connelly | 34 of 50 | 68% | 22 of 38 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 23 of 38 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 28 of 56 | 50% | 22 of 49 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 16 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Tristan Connelly | 25 of 49 | 51% | 19 of 41 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tristan Connelly, though he acknowledges Elkins is never out of a fight. He thinks the damage is catching up to Elkins after his KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly can avoid takedowns and land big punches to sneak out a win, but notes Elkins' toughness and ability to make fights ugly.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins but is hesitant, calling the fight a mess. He notes Elkins' experience and wrestling, but worries about his age and damage taken. He expects Elkins to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody also picks Connelly, noting Elkins' age and wear. He thinks Connelly's cardio and BJJ will allow him to survive early takedowns and take over later. Cody references Connelly's fight against Pat Sabatini, where he lost the first two rounds but dominated the third. He believes Connelly's speed and pressure will be too much for Elkins, and that Connelly could even submit him.
Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins but is not confident. He believes the best version of Elkins would grind out Connelly, but questions how much damage Elkins has taken over his career, comparing him to BJ Penn's decline. He also questions if Connelly belongs at UFC level, noting his win over Michel Pereira was more about Pereira beating himself. Levi is not comfortable laying -175 and passes on betting.
The host leans Connelly as an underdog, citing his cardio and BJJ. He notes Elkins is slowing down and has taken massive damage, while Connelly has good cardio and can match Elkins' pressure. Connelly's striking is better if kept standing, and his jiu-jitsu can neutralize Elkins' wrestling. He expects a competitive fight that could go to decision, with Connelly having a live chance.
Paul picks Tristan Connelly as a live underdog, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and age (in fight years). He notes Connelly's BJJ black belt and endless cardio, and his ability to defend takedowns and get back up. Paul thinks Connelly's speed and pressure will be key, and that Elkins may be damaged goods after the Cub Swanson loss. He mentions Connelly's guillotine choke as a potential threat.
The Guru picks Tristan Connelly, citing Elkins' accumulated damage and recent KO loss to Cub Swanson. He believes Connelly is younger with less wear and tear, and has shown tenacity in coming back in fights. The Guru notes Connelly's good third round against Pat Sabatini and his win over TJ Laramie. He thinks Elkins' chin is starting to go and that Connelly has more heat in his punches. He predicts Connelly will grind out a decision or get a late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 2 of 19 | 10% | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 18 of 30 | 60% | 16 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Darren Elkins | 2 of 19 | 10% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Darren Elkins, citing the constant threat of takedowns and grinding pressure. He believes Elkins can make the fight ugly and frustrate Swanson, who is the better all-around fighter but needs to keep it standing. Angelo notes that Elkins has power in his hands but his clear path is grappling. He placed a moneyline bet on Elkins because the odds were too good at +170, thinking it should be closer to a pick'em.
Big Brady picks Cub Swanson by decision, citing his striking advantage (higher volume, accuracy, defense) and improved takedown defense in recent fights. He notes Elkins' low striking accuracy and believes Swanson can keep the fight standing. He acknowledges Elkins' grappling but thinks Swanson's takedown defense has improved enough to avoid trouble.
Cody picks Swanson but doesn't like the -200 price. He thinks Swanson's superior footwork and striking technique will allow him to box up Elkins on the feet. He notes that Elkins needs takedowns to win, and Swanson's takedown defense (60% career) might be enough. Cody suggests taking Swanson by decision at +150 instead of the moneyline, as he believes Swanson is unlikely to finish Elkins.
Daniel Levi picks Cub Swanson but admits he is sketched out by Elkins's comeback ability. He believes Swanson will dominate the striking early, using his speed, kicks, and explosiveness. However, Levi worries that if Elkins gets top position or takes Swanson's back, he could submit him. He references Jeremy Stephens's blueprint of keeping the fight standing and busting Elkins up, which Swanson can follow. Levi expects Swanson to win a decision, possibly 30-27, but acknowledges the risk of Elkins pulling off a submission.
Jacob picks Cub Swanson, his favorite fighter, and is very confident. He argues that Swanson is the better all-around fighter and equally tough. Jacob believes Swanson will dominate the fight, noting that Swanson looked great in his last win and that Elkins' wins come from out-toughing opponents, but nobody out-toughs Swanson. He thinks the odds are fair and that Swanson will win.
The host picks Swanson by KO, citing the striking disparity and Elkins' declining reactions. He believes Swanson will tee off on Elkins and finish him. He likes the KO prop at +250 and also parlayed Swanson moneyline with Barcelos.
Paul is leaning towards Elkins as a dog, citing Elkins's incredible durability and never-quit attitude. He thinks Swanson may start fast but could fade, and Elkins's pressure and wrestling could take over. Paul plans to bet Elkins live if Swanson slows down, expecting a better number than +170. He calls it a 'dogger pass' situation pre-fight.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson to win by 29-28 decision. He notes Swanson has improved his grappling defense significantly, as shown in the second Edgar fight where he wasn't taken down. He thinks Swanson's stand-up advantage will be key and he won't gas out like other Elkins opponents. He expects a scrappy war but Swanson's veteran savvy will carry him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 20 of 30 | 66% | 137 of 154 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 3:01 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 36 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 4:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 43 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 36 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 2 | 3:17 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 94 of 106 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:17 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 20 of 30 | 66% | 18 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 23 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 35 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 13 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Darrick Minner | 19 of 33 | 57% | 14 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 14 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 22 |
| Darrick Minner | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Darrick Minner because he is the more technical fighter, improving, and has a relentless pace. He expects Minner to take Elkins down and finish with elbows. He likes the under on rounds and the less/less on monkey knife fight, predicting a stoppage. He has Minner in his DraftKings lineup.
Big Brady picks the dog Darren Elkins despite his age (37) and damage taken, because he questions Darrick Minner's cardio after only one fight showing improved stamina. He notes Elkins has not been submitted since 2010 (only loss to Charles Oliveira) and has faced strong grapplers. He expects Minner to have early success but fade, allowing Elkins to finish late. He calls this the hardest fight to call on the card.
Cody picks Elkins as a dog, citing his experience against top competition and his wrestling and cardio advantages. He thinks Minner's style is erratic and his cardio is suspect, and that if Minner doesn't get a first-round submission, Elkins will grind him out. He notes Elkins is a larger man and should be able to wrestle him.
Daniel Levi picks Darrick Minner to dominate, noting that Minner is in the best part of his career with Krause's coaching, while Elkins' best days are behind him. He expects Minner to control the minutes, possibly via doctor stoppage or clear decision, as Elkins cuts easily and gets taken down. Levi warns about Minner's history of being finished but believes Elkins won't win rounds.
Jacob picks Darrick Minner because he thinks Minner will eventually submit Elkins. He notes that Elkins is tough and has fought top competition, but Minner is younger and improving. He likes the more/more on monkey knife fight, expecting a grappling-heavy fight with lots of action. He acknowledges that Elkins is always live but thinks Minner gets the job done.
The host picks Darren Elkins, citing his durability, wrestling, and experience. He believes Minner's cardio issues will be exposed as Elkins pressures him. He notes Minner's recent decision win was against a weak opponent and that Elkins has not been submitted in over a decade. He likes Elkins by decision at +290 and also mentions Elkins inside the distance at +350.
Paul agrees with Cody, calling it a clear dogger pass. He notes Minner's last win was against Charles Rosa, who was complacent on the ground, and that Elkins will try to get back up. He mentions the only person to submit Elkins is Charles Oliveira. He already bet Elkins at +152.
The Guru picks Minner, believing he is underrated and will outscramble Elkins. He criticizes Elkins' recent win over Eduardo Gagori as unimpressive, noting Gagori's padded record. He highlights Minner's wins over Charles Rosa and Terence McKinney, and his competitive grappling with Grant Dawson. He predicts a decision win via outscrambling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 120 of 168 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 48 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 55 of 69 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 41 of 64 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 32 of 72 | 44% | 21 of 58 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 55 | 12 of 15 | 2 of 2 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 36 of 78 | 46% | 28 of 69 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 12 of 21 | 57% | 8 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 18 of 40 | 45% | 14 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luiz Eduardo Garagorri | 13 of 30 | 43% | 10 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady is confident in Elkins due to Garagorri's poor takedown defense (53%) and Elkins' wrestling. He notes Elkins can submit him and that Garagorri has been taken down multiple times before. However, he is hesitant to bet at -230 and suggests looking at the submission prop.
Daniel Levi picks Darren Elkins, but notes he prefers him at underdog odds. He believes Elkins can get takedowns against Garagorri, who has poor takedown defense. Levi is concerned about Elkins' decline and tendency to get cut, but thinks his wrestling will be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges Garagorri's power and potential to cause damage, but sees Elkins as the safer pick.
The host picks Elkins via decision, citing his superior grappling, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Garagorri's lack of takedown defense and training in Uruguay as weaknesses. He is slightly concerned about Garagorri's power and speed but believes Elkins will drown him with relentless takedowns and top pressure.
The MMA Guru picks Darren Elkins to win by unanimous decision. He dismisses Eduardo Garagorri as having not shown up in some fights and lacking competition. He notes Elkins's experience against tough grapplers like Ryan Hall and his ability to avoid submissions.
Daniel Pineda - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 102 of 170 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 6:33 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 61 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 3:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 2:07 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 27 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 1 | 2:07 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 39 of 72 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 17 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 40 of 63 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 17 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Elkins | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 78 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 70 | 3 of 7 | 8 of 11 |
| Daniel Pineda | 31 of 53 | 58% | 21 of 38 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 17 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Elkins | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 13 of 15 | 86% | 12 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Darren Elkins | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 12 of 24 | 50% | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Darren Elkins | 17 of 33 | 51% | 12 of 28 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.
Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.
The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.
Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 66 of 93 | 70% | 81 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 3:42 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 80 of 125 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 2 | 5:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 24 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 13 of 18 | 72% | 30 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:47 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 1 | 42 of 61 | 68% | 47 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:11 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 26 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 66 of 93 | 70% | 35 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 19 of 23 | 55 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 14 |
| Daniel Pineda | 32 of 69 | 46% | 21 of 53 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 15 of 21 | 71% | 8 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Daniel Pineda | 13 of 18 | 72% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 42 of 61 | 68% | 22 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 12 of 15 | 35 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Daniel Pineda | 12 of 36 | 33% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 9 of 11 | 81% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood as the biggest favorite on the card, citing Wood's superior striking, grappling, and durability. He notes that Daniel Pineda is dangerous early but fades quickly, and Wood only needs to survive the first few minutes. Angelo believes Wood is better everywhere and is safe to parlay.
Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his technical striking, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Daniel Pineda is a dangerous first-round fighter but fades quickly, and that Wood can survive the early onslaught and take over in later rounds. Cody believes Wood can win by decision or late finish, and suggests waiting for a better live price after the first round.
Daniel thinks Nathaniel Wood is better everywhere but has a questionable chin. He notes Daniel Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with all wins by finish, but 0-6 in decisions. He expects Wood to weather an early storm and win a decision if he survives.
Paul agrees with Cody, expecting Wood to win. He notes that Pineda's best chance is early, and he might sprinkle on Pineda by submission in round one at long odds. However, he believes Wood's volume and cardio will be too much as the fight goes on.
The MMA Guru picks Nathaniel Wood, calling Daniel Pineda 'trash' and a former PED user. He believes Wood is levels above Pineda in skill, especially on the feet, and will win the low kick battle, which is key to Pineda's game. Wood's recent grappling win over Alex Caceres shows his well-roundedness. The Guru sympathizes with Wood's bad luck in past fights and expects him to win decisively.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Caceres | 0 | 60 of 99 | 60% | 86 of 128 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:26 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 43 of 74 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 | 1 | 3:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Caceres | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 11 of 13 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Alex Caceres | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 19 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 3:36 | |
| 3 | Alex Caceres | 0 | 40 of 60 | 66% | 50 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Caceres | 60 of 99 | 60% | 32 of 69 | 26 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 76 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 8 |
| Daniel Pineda | 27 of 56 | 48% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 22 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Caceres | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 24 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 8 |
| Daniel Pineda | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Caceres | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 9 of 14 | 64% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Alex Caceres | 40 of 60 | 66% | 21 of 39 | 18 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 56 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 13 of 35 | 37% | 6 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Caceres, believing he can weather Pineda's early storm and then take over as Pineda fades. He notes Pineda is dangerous but only for about three minutes. Angelo is concerned about recency bias from Caceres' knockout win over Julian Erosa, but still thinks Caceres' durability and experience will carry him.
Cody picks Caceres, noting his resurgence and improved skills across the board. He mentions Caceres has a knack for taking the back and fishing for rear-naked chokes. Cody contrasts Pineda's early-finish style with Caceres's ability to go the distance. He also notes Caceres recently lost a grappling match to Pat Sabatini, which could be a concern. Overall, he feels Caceres should win over 15 minutes but isn't overly confident.
Connor picks Pineda, citing that Caceres has historically struggled against intense, fast-starting power punchers. He notes that Pineda's aggression and power could overwhelm Caceres early, as seen in Caceres' losses to Francisco Rivera and Juan Wong. However, Connor is hesitant because Pineda is inconsistent and can be outmaneuvered by mobile strikers.
Daniel sees this as a dog-or-pass situation, noting that Pineda is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with 30 finishes in 30 wins. He believes the line has overcorrected after Caceres' win over Julian Erosa, and that Pineda's grappling and finishing ability make him a live underdog. However, he acknowledges Pineda's cardio issues and the risk of him getting finished himself.
Jacob picks Pineda, citing his power and finishing ability. He thinks Pineda's leg kicks will slow Caceres' movement and set up takedowns or knockout shots. Jacob notes Caceres' recent knockout was against a broken Julian Erosa and he hasn't shown real power since 2010. He believes Pineda finds a finish.
Caceres has cleaner technical striking and a sneaky submission game. Pineda is aggressive but leaves openings. Caceres will likely land a head kick or set up a submission in the second or third round. The fight not going to decision is a strong prop.
Paul picks Alex Caceres but is not confident at the -180 price. He notes Caceres has improved his wrestling and striking, and his grappling is his best asset. Paul points out Pineda is a front-runner who fades in later rounds, while Caceres can survive and be dangerous in the second and third. However, he acknowledges Pineda's physical strength and BJJ could pose problems if he gets takedowns early. Paul leans Caceres over 15 minutes but won't bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres, noting he is very hard to finish due to his elusiveness. He highlights Caceres' five-fight win streak with finishes, and a close fight with Sadiq Youssef. He believes Caceres will make it tricky for Pineda on the feet and that Pineda will slow down due to rough weight cuts. He thinks if it goes to decision, Caceres wins, though Pineda is a finisher.
Zane picks Caceres because he believes Pineda's striking falls apart against fighters who use movement and angles. He notes that Pineda overthrows and is vulnerable to fluid strikers like Caceres. Zane expects Caceres to survive Pineda's early intensity and then take over, similar to how Andre Fili beat Pineda.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Pineda | 1 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 41 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Tucker Lutz | 0 | 28 of 78 | 35% | 33 of 84 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Pineda | 1 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Tucker Lutz | 0 | 24 of 65 | 36% | 29 of 71 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 2 | Daniel Pineda | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Tucker Lutz | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Pineda | 24 of 45 | 53% | 10 of 24 | 4 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tucker Lutz | 28 of 78 | 35% | 17 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 6 | 22 of 71 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Pineda | 17 of 32 | 53% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 9 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tucker Lutz | 24 of 65 | 36% | 15 of 50 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 18 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Pineda | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tucker Lutz | 4 of 13 | 30% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lutz, expecting him to weather Pineda's early storm and then take over with wrestling. He notes that Pineda is feast-or-famine with a 100% finish rate but fades quickly. He thinks Lutz is powerful and should get takedowns and a finish. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go the distance' rather than a moneyline.
Big Brady picks Tucker Lutz by third-round TKO, viewing it as a fade on Daniel Pineda. He notes Pineda's age (37), history of PED use, and tendency to gas out after the first round. Brady believes Lutz's grinding style and pace will wear down Pineda, who has never won a 15-minute fight. He expects Lutz to survive the early danger and finish Pineda late.
Cody picks Lutz confidently, calling Pineda a one-round fighter with poor cardio and a history of fading. He notes Pineda is 37, off a two-year layoff, and was previously caught for steroids. He believes Lutz's takedown defense and volume striking will neutralize Pineda's early grappling threat, and that Lutz will break Pineda down over three rounds.
Connor leans toward Tucker Lutz but expresses hesitation, noting that Lutz hasn't faced a fighter as violent and unpredictable as Daniel Pineda. He points out that Pineda has crushed young prospects before and that Lutz's recent UFC wins have been decisions against less dangerous opponents. Connor is curious to see how Lutz handles Pineda's calf kicks and chaotic pressure, and he wouldn't be super confident in Lutz passing this test just yet.
Jacob picks Lutz but is not confident, echoing that Lutz should win but the fight is not worth betting. He notes that Pineda is tough and wild, and that Lutz was out-grappled by Sabatini, but that is not a concern. He says the breakdowns are repetitive because many favorites on this card are similar.
The host leans with the younger, faster, more explosive Tucker Lutz, expecting him to come back with vengeance after his first UFC loss. He thinks Lutz's combination striking, speed, and explosiveness will find Pineda's chin and put him away via ground and pound. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as Pineda's fights almost always finish inside the distance.
The Guru picks Lutz, noting Pineda's gas tank issues and tendency to fade after the first round. He believes Lutz's durability and cardio will allow him to win the last two rounds via decision, despite a tough first round.
Zane picks Tucker Lutz because he sees Lutz as a solid, reliable fighter who is difficult to finish and has a safe, counter-punching style that should outlast Daniel Pineda's wild aggression. He notes that Pineda is prone to self-destructing and fading as the fight goes on, while Lutz has the durability and technical boxing to stay out of harm's way and accumulate points. Zane also mentions that Lutz's style is similar to Cody Stamann's, which has proven effective against aggressive but less technical opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 0 | 34 of 67 | 50% | 44 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 43 of 62 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 0 | 29 of 57 | 50% | 39 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 38 of 52 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Fili | 34 of 67 | 50% | 29 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Daniel Pineda | 15 of 34 | 44% | 7 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Fili | 29 of 57 | 50% | 26 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Daniel Pineda | 10 of 24 | 41% | 4 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andre Fili | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
From one action-packed battle to the next we go, as Fili (21-8, 9-7 UFC) will look to thwart Pineda (27-14, 2 NC; 4-5 UFC) and his constant forward momentum. Pineda sports a 100 percent finish rate through his lengthy career, so both Fili and referee Herb Dean will need to tread lightly here. The intense featherweights do decide to touch gloves before starting off. Pineda ducks down to avoid a strike so that he can go over the top, and he throws so hard that he falls across the cage. Fili walks him down, ignores a leg kick, and is forced to quickly defend himself from a takedown attempt. The California native stays upright and pushes off, and Pineda wings w a right hand. Fili tags him with a huge right hand, and Pineda falls to his knees. “Touchy” touches him up with several more punches in a long combination, and he backs off instead of burning his gas tank to seek a finish. Pineda climbs back to his feet and pushes Fili into the wire, where he can gather his senses after taking some serious damage. Pineda grinds Fili into the wall as if it were a cheese grater, until Fili pushes off with one hand. Pineda slips and rips a right hand, and he nails Fili with a heavy low kick that makes the Californian stumble. Fili switches stances after just a few kicks, and he eats a few punches when he backpedals. Fili surprises his foe with a head kick, and a one-two catches Pineda square on the jaw. The Houston native is rocked, and Fili grabs him and hits a suplex to put Pineda down to the ground hard. Pineda is split open over his left eye, and after getting off some ground-and-pound, Fili lets his foe back up. After eating a thudding leg kick, Fili sits down on a liver kick that buckles Pineda’s knees, and “Touchy” leaps down to finish the job with some ferocious ground punches. Pineda closes his guard and ties Fili up to ride out the round, having survived a vicious onslaught.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Fili
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-8 Fili
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Fili
Round 2
The featherweights touch gloves to begin the round, and Pineda is ready to brawl as he charges ahead with a salvo of punches. Pineda takes a stunning liver kick, and he just barely blocks a head kick in time. Pineda gets off a leg kick, puts two punches together, and is countered by standing in front of his man. Fili pushes off to gain some space, and a finger plunges deep into Pineda’s eye. The Texan is in serious pain as Dean pauses the action, and the doctor comes in to check it out immediately. Pineda’s body language is not good, as it is the eye that is already cut up and damaged. Pineda’s eye gets checked out, and he is ready to keep fighting, but both Dean and the doctor tell him to take a little more time to clear it out. Pineda is trying to open his left eye, but it is not responsive and Pineda cannot even tell the doctor how many fingers he is holding up. Dean recognizes this and calls the fight off, as Pineda is trying to tough it out even though he cannot see out of that closed eye. Unfortunately, with the stoppage due to an accidental eye poke at this early into the bout, this thriller of a battle will go down as a no contest. If there is a silver lining, it is that the promotion will most likely run this back sooner than later.
The Official Result
Andre Fili vs. Daniel Pineda is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Eye Poke) R2 0:46
Angelo picks Andre Fili, noting he is more technical and will avoid Pineda's haymakers, survive the first round, and pull out a win. He does not love the -225 odds or 8900 price tag but believes Fili wins. He has a bet on under 2.5 rounds because Pineda is feast or famine.
Big Brady picks Andre Fili to win by KO, noting Pineda's 100% finish rate but also his age (35) and recent poor performance against Cub Swanson. He thinks Pineda is very dangerous in the first round but will gas out, and Fili can weather the storm and finish him later. He compares it to the Rosa/Jaynes fight. He would not bet it due to Pineda's danger.
Cody picks Andre Fili but expects a sweat. He notes Pineda has never won a decision in 50 pro fights, meaning he must finish Fili. Fili is extremely durable, having been dropped but never finished cleanly. Cody thinks Fili's cardio and toughness will allow him to outlast Pineda, who tends to fade after the first round. He suggests live betting Pineda early and then Fili later.
Jacob picks Andre Fili, praising his toughness and competition level. He notes Fili has lost only to top fighters and has survived against tough opponents. Jacob believes Fili will dominate and is great value at 8900. He likes more/more on the monkey knife fight line.
Fili has one of the best jabs in the UFC and should use it to keep Pineda at distance. He needs to stay disciplined and on the outside to avoid Pineda's forward pressure. Fili's height and reach advantage will be key. If he lets Pineda inside or get taken down, it could be a rough night. Fili should outpoint Pineda on the feet and win a decision.
Paul picks Fili but is not excited about the -225 price. He notes Fili's durability and solid grappling, and that Pineda comes out fast but fades. He thinks Fili can survive the early storm and take over. He considered Fili by decision but the +150 odds didn't excite him.
The MMA Guru picks Andre Fili by late second-round TKO, citing his size, reach, and range advantage over Pineda. He believes Fili's defense will neutralize Pineda's leg kicks and that Pineda's cardio will fade due to a tough weight cut. He expects Fili to box Pineda up and finish him against the cage in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 2 | 46 of 66 | 69% | 51 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 31 of 47 | 65% | 34 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 35 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 1 | 15 of 19 | 78% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cub Swanson | 46 of 66 | 69% | 35 of 51 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 |
| Daniel Pineda | 21 of 45 | 46% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 19 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cub Swanson | 31 of 47 | 65% | 23 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 23 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Daniel Pineda | 16 of 30 | 53% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cub Swanson | 15 of 19 | 78% | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Pineda | 5 of 15 | 33% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Daniel Pineda to win by first-round submission. He highlights Pineda's 100% finish rate (27 wins all finishes) and Swanson's history of being submitted six times. He likes Pineda's recent form and believes he is in his prime, while Swanson is past his prime and coming off injury. He recommends betting Pineda inside the distance at +140.
Daniel is impressed with Pineda's resurgence, noting his 29 finishes and recent dominant performances. He questions Cub Swanson's level of competition and thinks Swanson is on his way out. He predicts Pineda will catch Cub with a submission, possibly his 20th submission win.
Pineda's wrestling and top pressure will be a nightmare for Swanson, who has struggled with grapplers. Pineda should be able to take Swanson down repeatedly and finish him via ground and pound or submission. Swanson's recent losses have come via submission, and Pineda's style matches up well. The under 2.5 rounds is a good prop.
The MMA Guru picks Cub Swanson, despite the long layoff due to injury. He believes Swanson's experience against good jiu-jitsu guys and his stand-up will be the difference. He expects Swanson to keep the fight standing and win a unanimous decision. He dismisses Daniel Pineda's wins as unimpressive and notes Pineda's past PED issues.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 35 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 57 of 75 | 76% | 173 of 205 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 6:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Pineda | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 87 of 111 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 | |
| 2 | Daniel Pineda | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:27 |
| Herbert Burns | 0 | 33 of 35 | 94% | 86 of 94 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Pineda | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 5 |
| Herbert Burns | 57 of 75 | 76% | 50 of 65 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 48 of 61 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Pineda | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Herbert Burns | 24 of 40 | 60% | 19 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 29 | |
| 2 | Daniel Pineda | 6 of 9 | 66% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Herbert Burns | 33 of 35 | 94% | 31 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 32 |
Big Brady is impressed with Herbert Burns' improvements and superior grappling. He expects Burns to submit Pineda in the first round, noting Pineda has been submitted five times. He thinks the fight won't go to decision.
Daniel Levi picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pineda has never been to a decision (0-6 in decisions) and has been submitted six times. He believes Pineda's scrambling style is a bad matchup against Burns' elite jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Pineda's recent wins were overturned due to PEDs, and he may be deflated under USADA testing. He cites Burns' performance against Dunham as evidence of his submission prowess.
Pineda is a live dog with strong wrestling and top pressure; he has not been submitted since 2010 and has the experience to survive Burns' early submission threats. Burns' recent finishes are against over-the-hill competition, while Pineda is still in his prime. The line is too wide; Pineda should be closer to +120. He will play it safe, rack up rounds, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns by submission in the first round, calling it the surest win on the card. He highlights Burns' knockout of Nate Landwehr with a knee up the middle as evidence of his finishing ability, and dismisses Pineda as a past-prime cheater.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whiteford | 0 | 24 of 44 | 54% | 40 of 60 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 54 of 84 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 7:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whiteford | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:02 | |
| 2 | Robert Whiteford | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 20 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 | |
| 3 | Robert Whiteford | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 16 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Daniel Pineda | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Whiteford | 24 of 44 | 54% | 7 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 26 of 50 | 52% | 14 of 34 | 9 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Whiteford | 8 of 18 | 44% | 2 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 15 of 29 | 51% | 6 of 16 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 19 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Robert Whiteford | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Pineda | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Robert Whiteford | 10 of 15 | 66% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 |
| Daniel Pineda | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo is surprised Darren Elkins is the underdog and has a bet on him at +102. He notes Elkins' incredible toughness, grinding style, and ability to fight a full 15 minutes without fading, while Pineda is a feast-or-famine fighter who fades quickly after an initial burst. He thinks Elkins can weather the early storm and take over as the fight goes on. He sees value in the underdog line and expects Elkins to win.
Big Brady picks Darren Elkins by third-round knockout. He sees it as Pineda early, Elkins late. Pineda is dangerous early with power and grappling, but gasses badly. Elkins is extremely tough and will not let Pineda off the hook if he fades. He expects Elkins to take over, take Pineda down, and finish him in the third round.
Connor also picks Elkins hesitantly, noting that Pineda is violent but inconsistent, with a tendency to gas and lose focus. He compares the matchup to the 'Darren Elkins vs Michael Johnson award' for one-true-outcome fights. He acknowledges that Elkins could get knocked out early, but Pineda's self-destructive tendencies make Elkins the safer pick.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Pineda has finished all 28 of his victories but will struggle with the relentless style of Elkins. As long as Elkins' durability holds up early, he should be able to break Pineda down and find a finish in the second or third round.
The Guru believes Darren Elkins has taken too much damage and no longer has it at age 40. He notes Pineda had good performances against Nathaniel Wood and Alex Caceres, and expects Pineda to destroy Elkins' lead leg with calf kicks and get a guillotine off a lazy takedown. He predicts a TKO or submission finish.
Zane picks Elkins but with hesitation, acknowledging that Elkins is 40 and could get knocked out. However, he notes that Pineda is the type of fighter who beats himself—he gasses, loses focus, and makes bad decisions. Elkins historically beats those kinds of fighters by accepting the gift. Zane says he can't feel good about it but can't pick Pineda either.
Darren looked really slow.