UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade

Angelo picks Jessica Andrade to bully Amanda Lemos and grind out a dominant decision. He notes Andrade is a proven entity who continues to pass tests, while Lemos should have lost to Angela Hill. He says Andrade will push forward, get takedowns, stand in Lemos' face, and grind out a win. He calls the odds fair (Andrade almost 2-1 favorite).

Big Brady picks Jéssica Andrade to win, citing her superior level of competition and relentless pressure. He notes that Andrade has fought champions like Valentina Shevchenko, Rose Namajunas, and Zhang Weili, while Lemos has faced lower-tier opponents. He believes Lemos is dangerous early but fades, and Andrade's cardio and pressure will overwhelm her. He predicts a finish in the third round as Lemos slows down.

Cody sees value in Andrade at -190, noting her experience, power, and wrestling. He believes she wins at least 70% of the time, which would imply a -233 line. He mentions the weigh-in as a concern but thinks Andrade's only losses are to elite fighters. He plans to hedge if needed.

The host picks Jéssica Andrade to win, noting that the moneyline is very friendly. He mentions that Andrade is a banger and expects a great fight. He also includes Andrade in a parlay with Guida and Barriault, showing confidence in her victory.

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Andrade's experience, toughness, and cardio edge. He notes Lemos' limitations shown against Angela Hill, where she faded after the first round. He believes Andrade's grappling and pressure will wear on Lemos over five rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, though he considered Lemos. He notes Lemos has power but fades after the first round, as seen against Angela Hill. He believes Andrade's championship mindset and cardio will carry her through early trouble. He predicts Andrade will survive a knockdown, then take over with leg kicks and pressure, winning by fourth-round TKO. He cites Andrade's experience in five-round fights and her wins over top competition like Namajunas and Chookagian. He also notes Andrade is only 30 and motivated.

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

Angelo picks Maycee Barber but with zero bet, calling it a tough fight with many unknowns. He notes Barber has good striking and improved wrestling, but can break mentally. He says Montana is a pure wrestler who has improved her hands at Elevation. He is normally a sucker for wrestlers but is worried. He says his gut wants to pick Montana, but for now he goes with Barber to defend takedowns and win striking.

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa to win by decision, citing her grappling advantage and Barber's recent poor striking performances. He notes Barber has looked bad in recent fights, with low striking accuracy and a tendency to punch air. He thinks De La Rosa can mix in takedowns and control the fight. However, he has low confidence and says he will have zero dollars on the fight.

Cody likes Barber at -190, noting her physical strength and improvement. He acknowledges she's a slow starter but believes she can overpower De La Rosa. He points out De La Rosa's poor striking defense and tendency to get hit. He warns it could be a trap line but picks Barber.

The host picks Maycee Barber as his biggest bet of the night at 2 units (-181). He believes Barber is a better striker with better footwork and will be able to get up from takedowns and dish out damage on the feet. He is confident in this pick, calling it his most confident play.

Paul is not playing Barber at -190, calling it a dogger pass situation. He thinks Barber rarely shows up and that De La Rosa could control on the mat. He plans to stay away from a betting perspective unless weigh-ins change his mind.

Angelo has a very slight lean to Lando Vannata, citing his grappling threat and size at 145. He notes Vannata has taken down Bobby Green five times across two fights. He says Jourdain's volume could be the difference if it stays standing, but Vannata's pressure and strength could be an issue. He calls Jourdain a gamer, making it hard to pick against him.

Big Brady picks Charles Jourdain to win a close decision, citing his youth and improvements shown in his last fight against Andre Ewell. He thinks Jourdain has the harder shots and slightly better striking, while Vannata may mix in takedowns but won't control Jourdain. He calls it a coin flip but leans Jourdain.

Cody picks Vannata as an underdog, citing his improved performance at 145 against Mike Grundy. He notes Vannata's wrestling background and ability to exploit Jourdain's takedown defense. He believes Vannata can mix takedowns and striking, and that Jourdain's wild style leaves openings.

The host leans towards Lando Vannata but has no bet on this fight. He thinks the fight is likely to go the distance, noting that Vannata has never been KO'd (only sub loss to Ferguson). He includes over 2.5 rounds in his totals parlay.

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Vannata's wrestling and the path to victory via takedowns. He notes Jourdain's poor takedown defense and Vannata's D1 wrestling background. He thinks Vannata can control the fight and potentially submit Jourdain.

The MMA Guru picks Charles Jourdain, citing his cardio advantage and durability. He notes Vannata slows down in high-paced fights and lacks power at featherweight. He predicts Jourdain will go to the body and take over in the later rounds, finishing by third-round TKO. He mentions Jourdain's great chin and Vannata's headhunting style. He expects a war with both getting rocked, but Jourdain's conditioning will be the difference.

Angelo leans Jordan Wright, calling it closer to a coin flip. He notes Wright is more dangerous but Barriault is the better fighter. He is concerned that Barriault may not have fully recovered from a KO loss less than 90 days ago, and that this is short notice. He mentions Wright's ridiculous striking differential (lands and gets hit over 8 strikes per minute).

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by knockout, citing his durability and more paths to victory. He notes that Jordan Wright is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with poor defense and chin, while Barriault is typically durable and more defensively sound. He expects Barriault to weather the early storm and finish Wright late in the first round.

Cody picks Wright, citing Barriault's recent knockout loss and questionable chin. He notes Wright's early aggression and power, and that Barriault is taking the fight on short notice at a catchweight. He thinks Wright's best chance is a first-round KO and likes the knockout prop.

The host picks Marc-André Barriault to win, including him in a parlay with Guida and Andrade. He acknowledges that Jordan Wright could win but suggests playing Wright's KO line instead of a straight bet.

Paul leans Barriault but low priority. He acknowledges Wright's early KO threat but thinks if Barriault survives the first round, his grinding style will take over. He notes Barriault's durability before the last fight and expects him to wear on Wright.

The MMA Guru picks Jordan Wright, criticizing Barriault for fighting just two months after a brutal KO. He believes Wright is a fast starter and will finish Barriault early, especially at catchweight where Wright doesn't have to cut much. He notes Wright's size and reach advantage. He adds that if Wright doesn't finish in the first, Barriault might take over, but he expects an early KO. He calls Barriault's decision to fight again 'stupid'.

Angelo picks Dwight Grant, citing experience and speed, but notes his gut says Sergey due to pressure and willingness to chase stoppage. He says Grant has more power but Sergey has better counter-striking. He warns that if Grant's cardio slips, Sergey's pressure will steal rounds. He also notes Sergey is coming off a two-year layoff and will watch weigh-ins.

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win a close decision, citing his power advantage and recent activity. He notes that Sergey Khandozhko has been out for over two years, which is a concern. He expects a low-volume striking match and thinks Grant lands the harder shots. He has low confidence and says he wants nothing to do with the fight.

Cody picks Khandozhko but is not confident. He notes Khandozhko's long layoff and low volume striking. He thinks the over 2.5 rounds is a good parlay piece. He expects a low-volume striking affair and avoids heavy betting.

The host picks Sergey Khandozhko in his quick picks list but does not elaborate or place a bet on this fight. No strong reasoning is provided.

Paul leans Grant, citing his higher level of competition and Khandozhko's inactivity. He notes Grant's fights often go to split decision and that Khandozhko hasn't fought in three years. He expects a boring striking battle and avoids heavy betting.

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant by KO in the second or third round. He notes Grant's power and awkward style, comparing him to Uriah Hall. He believes Khandozhko's long layoff will cause jitters and that Grant can catch him as the fight goes on. He mentions Grant's close fight with Francisco Trinaldo and his power to put away opponents. He also notes Grant is a slight underdog, which he likes.

Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.

Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.

Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.

The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.

Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.

The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.

Angelo is leaning Cameron Else here, calling it a razor thin fight. He notes Else has real power and is a submission threat, while Aoriqileng is more technical. He factors in Else's short notice loss to Kyler Phillips and quarantine issues. He says he will be watching the scales closely because Else is coming off a long layoff.

Big Brady picks Aoriqileng to finish Cameron Else in the second round by knockout. He notes that Else is a kill-or-be-killed fighter who fades badly after the first round, while Aoriqileng has better durability and cardio. He thinks Aoriqileng can survive the early storm and break Else in the second round.

Cody picks Aoriqileng, citing his physical strength and durability. He notes Else's poor UFC debut and lack of wrestling. He thinks Aoriqileng will clip Else and finish him. He sees Aoriqileng as a good parlay piece.

The host picks Aoriqileng to win, but his bet is on the fight not going to decision. He believes Cameron Else is dangerous early, but if he doesn't get it done, Aoriqileng takes over and finishes later. He prefers the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop over the moneyline.

Paul agrees, noting Aoriqileng's never been KO'd and Else's lack of grappling. He expects Aoriqileng to press forward and land a knockout. He thinks Else is knockout or bust.

The MMA Guru picks Aoriqileng over Cameron Else, citing Else's padded record and poor competition. He notes Else's submissions come from bad shots, not enforced grappling, and that Aoriqileng has good takedown defense and a great chin. He predicts Else will fall in love with striking and get knocked out late in the first round. He believes Aoriqileng is better in all areas except jiu-jitsu, but Else won't be able to get it to the ground.

Angelo picks Evan Elder (referred to as Luis Cose, but likely Evan Elder given the matchup). He likes Elder's power and pressure, and thinks Parsons' takedowns aren't good enough to be a constant threat. He sees it as a sprawl-and-brawl matchup where Elder can settle in and let his hands go. He notes Elder was dominating his last fight before gassing.

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking and preparation for a grappler. He notes Parsons' one-dimensional grappling and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Elder will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

The host picks Evan Elder in his quick picks list and includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds. He does not provide detailed reasoning for the pick.

Paul agrees, noting Elder's training at Sanford MMA and preparation for a wrestler. He thinks Elder's striking will be too much for Parsons. He suggests Elder should be around -185 favorite.

The MMA Guru picks Evan Elder (referred to as 'Louis Coskey' in transcript, likely a mispronunciation) over Preston Parsons. He describes Elder as explosive and dangerous early, noting his debut loss but good performance. He criticizes Parsons for being unimpressive and easily handled by Daniel Rodriguez. He predicts Elder will be more patient this time and get a first-round KO, citing power difference. He mentions Elder's recent KO loss but believes he will bounce back.

Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.

Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.

The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.

Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins, expressing concerns about Lins making weight and his inactivity. He notes Prachnio's technical striking and ability to make fights awkward, but acknowledges his suspect chin. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Prachnio, believing Lins will gas and that Prachnio's confidence from a two-fight win streak will carry him. He mentions Prachnio's win over Khalil Rountree as a quality victory.

Angelo picks Dean Barry to win, noting Barry's solid power and pressure despite being undersized for welterweight. He criticizes the absurd -1000 odds, calling them unjustified for a striker vs striker matchup. He mentions Barry's last opponent was 6-30, so he's not impressed by the KO record. He says he won't bet on Barry due to the terrible odds but might throw a few dollars on Mike Jackson at +800 just to see what happens.

Big Brady picks Dean Barry to win by first-round knockout, citing his power and Jackson's lack of UFC caliber. He notes that Barry is a huge favorite and should starch Jackson early. He expects the fight to stay standing and Barry to knock him out in the first 60 seconds.

Cody picks Barry, calling Jackson a journalist. He notes Barry's striking and Jackson's lack of power. He thinks Barry will finish early and suggests betting the under 1.5 rounds.

The host picks Dean Barry to win, including him in his quick picks list. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He mentions that someone took a shot on Mike Jackson in the challenge, but he is on Barry.

Paul agrees, calling it a freak show. He thinks Barry will finish Jackson early. He suggests betting the under 1.5 rounds as a parlay piece.

The MMA Guru picks Dean Barry over Mike Jackson, citing Barry's kickboxing background and athleticism. He notes that Mike Jackson couldn't finish CM Punk on the ground and appears malnourished, lacking muscle mass. He believes Barry will win by first-round KO, as Mickey Gall easily submitted Jackson. He dismisses Jackson's part-time MMA status and expects Barry's power to be decisive.