Preston Parsons

Angelo picks Jacobe Smith (Andreas Gustofson) but with very low confidence. He believes Smith is the better pure wrestler and that his wrestling will be the difference, as Preston Parsons is clueless if he can't get takedowns. However, he notes that Smith is a UFC debutant and a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers a bad bet. He thinks Smith's jiu-jitsu is good enough to avoid submissions. He advises against betting on Smith.

Big Brady is very high on Jacobe Smith, calling him a top-three contender series prospect. He praises Smith's wrestling, devastating ground and pound, and power. He notes Parsons is hittable and has poor performances when he can't get takedowns, like against Oban Elliott. Brady predicts Smith will outwrestle Parsons and land a big shot, winning by second-round TKO.

Cody is confident in Smith, citing his elite wrestling pedigree and physicality. He notes Parsons's struggles against strong wrestlers like Oban Elliott. He expects Smith to dominate with takedowns and control.

Daniel is high on Smith's wrestling credentials (D1 from Oklahoma State) and KO power, but notes the -525 price and short notice are concerns. He thinks Smith's wrestling and power will be too much for Parsons, who is chinny and lost to Trevin Giles. He picks Smith but passes on betting due to lack of value.

Smith is making his UFC debut on very short notice but is a much better wrestler and grappler than Parsons. He will keep Parsons in bad positions and grind out a decision win.

Paul also picks Smith, calling him a real deal prospect. He notes Smith's violent Contender Series performance and All-American wrestling. He believes Smith will impose his will and move up the ranks quickly.

Angelo picks Preston Parsons, expecting him to dive for takedowns and either submit or decision Oban Elliott. He notes that Oban is well-rounded but not dangerous, and Parsons has 9 submissions in 11 wins. Angelo acknowledges the fight could be boring but believes Parsons will get the grappling going and win.

Cody picks Preston Parsons, citing his relentless pressure, grappling, and power. He notes that Oban Elliott was taken down by Val Woodburn, which is a red flag, and that Parsons has better wrestling and cardio. Cody believes Parsons can grind out a win or even knock Elliott out.

Daniel thinks Preston Parsons is more battle-tested and has faced better competition. He notes Oban Elliott is unathletic and boring but tough. He picks Parsons but not confidently, citing potential jet lag and judging issues.

Daniel picks Modestas Bukauskas inside the distance as his prop. He notes Bukauskas has good takedowns and back-takes from his Cage Warriors days, and expects him to work his grappling. He thinks there's a real chance of a ground-and-pound finish, and the inside distance line at +240 offers value.

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Elliott's takedown defense is questionable and that Parsons' wrestling will be the difference. He mentions that Parsons has a clear game plan and that Elliott's love from the betting market is unwarranted.

Angelo picks Preston Parsons as a slight underdog, hoping he can weather an early storm and get takedowns like Jeremiah Wells did. He acknowledges Parsons' cardio issues and Semelsberger's one-punch knockout power, which is why his bet is only a quarter unit. He also plans to bet Semelsberger inside the distance as a prop, believing Parsons won't submit him.

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs. grappler matchup. He highlights Semelsberger's incredible power, having knocked down opponents in 7 of 9 UFC fights. He believes if Semelsberger stuffs takedowns, he will knock out Parsons brutally. Parsons' path is via submission, but Brady favors the power of Semelsberger.

Cody picks Parsons, citing his wrestling advantage and full camp, while Semelsberger is on short notice. He notes Semelsberger's suspect chin and cardio due to weight cuts, and that Parsons can take him down and hold him down. He admits it's not a high-confidence play but likes the dog at plus money.

Daniel Vreeland leans with Matthew Semelsberger to knock out Preston Parsons. He acknowledges Semelsberger's power and knockdown rate, but worries about his tendency to end up on his back. Vreeland thinks if Semelsberger can avoid getting taken down, he will bust up Parsons standing. He hopes Semelsberger has fixed the mental issues that held him back.

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

Preston Parsons is a pressure grappler who uses relentless forward movement and takedowns to control opponents. He has a strong wrestling base and can grind out decisions. Matthew Semelsberger has power but has struggled against grapplers, as seen in the Jeremiah Wells fight where he was controlled on the mat. Parsons' pace and grappling should neutralize Semelsberger's striking. At plus 110, Parsons is a good value pick, and I expect him to win by decision through control and pressure.

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Parsons as the wrestler on a full camp at plus money. He notes that Semelsberger has never impressed him and that Parsons has a clear path via wrestling. He mentions that Semelsberger's weight cut and short notice could be factors.

Angelo picks Parsons, noting his slick grappling and the fact that he showed he can go three rounds in his last fight. He thinks Giles is overrated due to the Roman Dolidze win, which he argues Dolidze actually won. He believes Parsons will get the wrestling going and win, possibly inside the distance. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Parsons at -105.

Big Brady picks Preston Parsons by submission in the second round. He questions Trevin Giles' fight IQ, durability, and volume, noting that Giles has been finished in all four losses. Brady believes Parsons' pressure and cardio will break Giles, and that Giles' weight cut to 170 will hurt his gas tank. He expects Parsons to mix takedowns, get on top, and secure a submission.

Cody picks Parsons, citing Giles' inconsistency, low output, and recent durability issues. He notes Parsons is younger, improving, and has solid wrestling. He worries about Texas judging but believes Parsons can edge out a decision or get a takedown. He calls it a 50/50 fight but leans Parsons.

Connor initially hesitates but ultimately sides with Zane's pick of Preston Parsons. He acknowledges that Parsons will eat a lot of straight punches early and that Giles is fast and a good straight puncher, but he doesn't trust Giles's application of his tools or his defensive absence at welterweight. Connor notes that Giles looked okay against Louis Cosce but not great, and he believes Parsons's physical pressure will be enough to exploit Giles's weaknesses.

Jacob also picks Parsons, agreeing that Giles is a good boxer but does not use his jab enough and struggles with pressure. He thinks Parsons will get in Giles' face, disrupt his striking, and win inside the distance. He says he is 'pressing Parsons all the way'.

The host likes Parsons' relentless grappling style and believes he can push a pace that Giles may not handle at welterweight. He notes Parsons showed good cardio in his last fight, and expects him to find a finish from top dominant position. He has questions about Giles' energy levels and weight cut.

The Guru picks Giles, citing his experience and athleticism. He notes that Parsons hasn't fought since his debut and lacks a standout skill. He expects Giles to win by decision, using his physicality and technique.

Angelo picks Evan Elder (referred to as Luis Cose, but likely Evan Elder given the matchup). He likes Elder's power and pressure, and thinks Parsons' takedowns aren't good enough to be a constant threat. He sees it as a sprawl-and-brawl matchup where Elder can settle in and let his hands go. He notes Elder was dominating his last fight before gassing.

Cody picks Elder, citing his striking and preparation for a grappler. He notes Parsons' one-dimensional grappling and tendency to get knocked out. He thinks Elder will stuff takedowns and land a knockout.

The host picks Evan Elder in his quick picks list and includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds. He does not provide detailed reasoning for the pick.

Paul agrees, noting Elder's training at Sanford MMA and preparation for a wrestler. He thinks Elder's striking will be too much for Parsons. He suggests Elder should be around -185 favorite.

Cody is very confident in Daniel Rodriguez, noting his superior boxing, 10th Planet jiu-jitsu, and experience. He believes Preston Parsons is a can-crusher who has struggled against UFC-level competition. Cody has parlayed Rodriguez with Islam Makhachev, indicating high confidence.