Career Averages - Claudio Puelles
Career Averages - Clay Guida
Claudio Puelles
Clay Guida
Claudio Puelles - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 58 of 102 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 7:25 |
| Joaquim Silva | 1 | 25 of 66 | 37% | 95 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 37 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 29 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 6 of 31 | 19% | 6 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Joaquim Silva | 1 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 53 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 21 of 63 | 33% | 14 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
| Joaquim Silva | 25 of 66 | 37% | 12 of 50 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 6 of 31 | 19% | 3 of 28 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 11 of 29 | 37% | 2 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 12 of 24 | 50% | 8 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 14 of 33 | 42% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 9 |
Angelo is torn on this fight. He calls Puelles a 'butt scooter' who looks like a puppy cleaning a dingleberry, but acknowledges his takedowns looked improved in his last fight. He says if Puelles' takedowns look as good as they did last time, he wins. He admits his gut won't let him say it out loud, but he's leaning Puelles. He notes Silva is a BJJ guy with big power and explosive striking, always looking for the knockout.
Big Brady leans toward Silva because Puelles is one-dimensional and has no plan B if his grappling fails. He notes Silva has a BJJ base, power on the feet, and has hurt top competition. He predicts Silva wins by second-round knockout, as Puelles has been knocked out before and Silva has the power to do it.
Silva is a big fan favorite and the host is surprised he is an underdog. He notes Silva has never been submitted and has a striking advantage. He expects Silva to fend off takedowns, walk Puelles down, and win by knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, expressing disdain for Claudio Puelles' jiu-jitsu style. He describes Silva as a strong, powerful, explosive lightweight who can cause problems on the feet. He criticizes Puelles as a 'martial artist, not a fighter' and recalls his quit against Dan Hooker. He believes Silva's power will be a big factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 17 of 27 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 7:14 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 31 of 48 | 64% | 58 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 4:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 4 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 1:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Ziam | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Claudio Puelles | 31 of 48 | 64% | 23 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 24 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farès Ziam | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Claudio Puelles | 9 of 17 | 52% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | |
| 2 | Farès Ziam | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Claudio Puelles | 14 of 20 | 70% | 11 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 12 | |
| 3 | Farès Ziam | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Claudio Puelles | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ziam (-218), Puelles (+180)
Round 1
Former training partners will put any friendship they formed aside from their time under the Kill Cliff FC roof, as grappler Puelles (12-3, 5-2 UFC) reps Peru against French striker Ziam (14-4, 4-2 UFC). The former holds the record for the most kneebars performed in UFC history, while the latter’s primary method of defeat is via submission, but anything is possible in the fight game. The gloves are touched in front of referee Herb Dean, and Ziam leads off with a stern low kick. Puelles shoots in for a single-leg takedown, and although Ziam defends the first attempt, a second effort for “Prince of Peru” gingerly sets Ziam down on his back. Ziam scrambles with all his muster, ultimately getting Puelles back to his butterfly guard. Ziam continues to buck and moves, and he works his way back up as Puelles follows him and nearly takes his back. Puelles forces a mat return, where he lands hard in half guard while hanging on with heavy chest pressure. Ziam nearly kicks him off, and Puelles hooks his foe’s legs beneath his own to keep him stuck. The Frenchman moves to his knees and wall-walks his way back up, and Puelles drags him right back down with his arm interlocked around Ziam’s. Ziam explodes back upright, and Puelles stays tightly pressed to him like a cheap suit until Ziam turns the corner and throws him aside. Puelles whiffs on a pair of chasing punches, and Ziam crowds him with a right up top and a left to the body. Puelles fakes for a takedown and lands a left hand, and as he throws a high kick, Ziam jacks him in the jaw with a jab that sends Puelles down like a sack of potatoes. Ziam rains down ground-and-pound until Puelles recovers enough to start scrambling, and Ziam backs off. Puelles gives chase and shoots for a desperate single, and Ziam stuffs it and walks away. Puelles keeps going after him, and he scoops “Smile Killer” up and makes him frown by slamming him to the mat with a high-amplitude double. Puelles jumps over the top to hunt for a kimura, isolating Ziam’s left arm while sitting on Ziam’s head. Ziam sees it coming and defends it, and Puelles steps all the way over and fishes for a leg lock that does not come before time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Round 2
The fighters bump fists before getting to it, and Ziam leads the dance early with jabs while not letting Puelles get close. Ziam succeeds in fighting off takedown setups, until Puelles desperately pursues one that ultimately ends up with him landing on his back thanks to a Ziam sweep at the last second. Puelles turns over to his back and leans back to set up a leglock, and Ziam abandons ship before anything is remotely close to coming together. Both men stand up, and Puelles fires off a head kick that bounces off the raised guard. Ziam paws out a low kick, and he steps in with a knee and follows it with a second on the dome. Puelles shoots from afar, and Ziam stops the first effort and fails to halt the second. Puelles slings his man to the mat, and he sits on top in an odd position with Ziam turned partially to his side. This allows Puelles to easily moves into full mount, and Ziam bucks him back to half guard. Puelles frames off to smack Ziam with an elbow, and he smothers from on top to disallow Ziam from escaping. As Ziam turns to his side, Puelles lets him do this so he can jump on Ziam’s back like a malicious backpack. Puelles wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Ziam falls to the ground and turns over to break up the choke. Ziam slows down and tags Puelles with an elbow, and he jumps to the other side to stop Puelles from setting up some maneuver. Ziam briefly unloads with ground-and-pound, mixing in elbows and posturing up at the right moments to not expose him to submission danger. The big punches keep coming until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam
Round 3
There is a final glove touch before engagement, and Ziam is quick to flick out his jab to get his range again. Puelles tries to punch his way into a single, and Ziam stops him in his tracks and stands him up. Puelles pushes him back to the wall and knees him in the chest, and Ziam spins around to drive in some knees of his own. Puelles shoots in low for a double, and Ziam keeps his arms locked beneath Puelles groin before snatching up a guillotine choke to threaten with his own offense. Puelles does not seem remotely flustered, turning his neck to the right way before sliding himself out and getting upright again. Puelles shoots and secures a takedown, landing in full guard and otherwise stalling out. When Puelles does try for some offense, Ziam stifles it. The crowd grows restless at Puelles’ damage-free approach, and Ziam sits up and goes for another guillotine. Puelles shakes it off and continues his smothering top control. An awkward scramble results in Puelles sitting on Ziam’s face for a moment, and Ziam keeps moving and pushes “Prince of Peru” to his back. Puelles ties up his guard, and Ziam elbows him in the ribs. Puelles sits up and attempts a reversal, and Ziam nullifies it and postures up to rain down punishment. Ziam delivers some hammering punches and elbows, and Puelles gets to his knees right before time expires. The crowd showers the fighters with boos when it is all over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ziam (30-27 Ziam)
The Official Result
Fares Ziam def. Claudio Puelles via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ziam, citing his range control and technical striking. He believes Puelles will struggle to get the fight to the ground and may resort to pulling guard. He expresses frustration with Puelles' style but acknowledges his danger on the ground.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence due to Puelles' terrible performance against Dan Hooker. He notes that Ziam is the better striker but has low volume and no power, so Puelles isn't in much danger on the feet. On the mat, Puelles is an incredible grappler with a BJJ black belt, and Ziam has been submitted in three of his four losses. Brady worries about Puelles' wrestling but thinks he can find ways to get the fight down.
Cody picks Ziam, noting Puelles is a one-trick pony with leg locks and hasn't evolved. Ziam has shown improvements in takedown defense and striking volume. He thinks Ziam keeps the fight upright, lands shots, and tires Puelles out. He acknowledges the leg lock threat but believes Ziam can avoid it.
The host sees this as a grappler vs. striker matchup, with Puelles being a knee-bar specialist but a sitting duck on the feet. He believes Ziam has shown enough improvement to keep the fight upright and use his kickboxing advantage to outbox and outkick Puelles en route to a decision win.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ziam. He echoes that Puelles is a one-trick pony with no evolution in his game. Ziam has improved takedown defense and striking. He thinks Ziam will box him up on the feet and avoid the leg locks. He notes Puelles' only path is a leg lock, which is low percentage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 1 | 29 of 63 | 46% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 1 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Hooker | 29 of 63 | 46% | 8 of 34 | 13 of 16 | 8 of 13 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Claudio Puelles | 5 of 18 | 27% | 1 of 12 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dan Hooker | 10 of 27 | 37% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Claudio Puelles | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dan Hooker | 19 of 36 | 52% | 6 of 21 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Claudio Puelles | 5 of 13 | 38% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Hooker's striking and believes he can keep the fight standing. He notes that Puelles has poor takedown defense and Hooker has only been submitted once in his career. He picks Hooker to win the striking exchanges and get his mojo back. He plans to bet on Puelles inside the distance (decision no action) because he sees Hooker winning by decision or Puelles by submission, not Hooker by stoppage.
Big Brady picks Dan Hooker to win by knockout in the first or second round. He argues Hooker's competition has been much tougher (Islam, Arnold Allen, Chandler, Poirier) and that Puelles is a big step down. He praises Hooker's takedown defense (78%) and notes he has beaten good grapplers like Gilbert Burns and Jim Miller. He criticizes Puelles' striking and believes Hooker will beat him up on the feet, though he acknowledges Puelles' knee bar threat.
Cody picks Dan Hooker, arguing that Hooker's losses have come against elite competition and that Puelles has not impressed him. He notes that Puelles' wins are against lower-level opponents and that his striking is not dangerous. Cody believes Hooker's takedown defense and striking volume will allow him to dominate on the feet and win a decision, as Puelles is durable but not a finisher.
Daniel Levi picks Dan Hooker, citing Hooker's superior striking volume, variety, and experience against top competition. He notes that Puelles is a submission specialist, but Hooker has shown he can defend leg locks (e.g., against Ian Entwistle and Al Iaquinta). Levi is concerned about Hooker's durability after recent knockdowns but believes Puelles doesn't have the power to exploit that. He sees this as a test for Puelles to see if he's ready for the top 15, and he's not convinced yet. Levi expects Hooker to win via striking or top control.
The host believes Hooker is the far superior striker and BJJ player, and that Puelles' only path is a submission like a kneebar, which won't work against Hooker. He dismisses Hooker's 1-4 run because the losses were to elite fighters (Poirier, Chandler, Islam, Allen), while Puelles is not at that level. He expects Hooker to win easily, possibly by KO or submission, and recommends the moneyline or inside the distance.
Paul also picks Dan Hooker, agreeing that Puelles' stand-up is not a threat and that Hooker should dominate on the feet. He notes that if the fight goes to the ground, Puelles could grab a leg, but on the feet it should not be competitive. Paul believes Hooker's durability is slightly compromised but still enough to beat Puelles.
The MMA Guru picks Dan Hooker, believing he will stuff takedowns and expose Puelles' stand-up. He notes Puelles' struggles against strikers and Hooker's takedown defense against elite grapplers like Al Iaquinta and Gilbert Burns. He predicts a vintage Hooker KO at the end of the first round, citing Hooker's comfort at lightweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 43 of 68 | 63% | 72 of 103 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 6:20 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 96 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 18 of 25 | 72% | 38 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 23 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 37 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 36 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 43 of 68 | 63% | 31 of 48 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 32 | 5 of 11 | 19 of 25 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 38 of 55 | 69% | 15 of 28 | 16 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 22 of 33 | 10 of 14 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 18 of 25 | 72% | 14 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 21 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 17 of 30 | 56% | 11 of 18 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 12 of 23 | 52% | 3 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 8 of 13 | 61% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Chris Gruetzemacher | 17 of 21 | 80% | 6 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo picks Puelles, citing his grappling and takedown volume. He notes Gruetzemacher has power and showed toughness against Garcia, but his wrestling defense is a hole. Angelo wishes Gruetzemacher were a bigger underdog to bet him, but goes with Puelles.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission. He notes Puelles is 10 years younger, has a height and reach advantage, trains at a better camp (Sanford MMA), and is a BJJ black belt with excellent control. He criticizes Gruetzemacher's takedown defense (61%) and notes he has been submitted in losses. Brady also mentions Gruetzemacher is training in a garage, not at ATT as listed. He expects Puelles to take the fight down and submit him.
Cody picks Gruetzemacher, emphasizing his cardio and pressure. He thinks Puelles has looked awful in recent fights and that Gruetzemacher's experience and durability will win out. Cody believes Gruetzemacher will march forward and beat Puelles over three rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Chris Gruetzemacher to win, citing his toughness, durability, and ability to absorb punishment and keep coming forward. He notes that Gruetzemacher is economical and efficient, with good boxing and calf kicks. He questions whether Claudio Puelles is ready for a dog fight and thinks Gruetzemacher will put it on him down the stretch, possibly losing the first round but winning the last two.
Jacob picks Puelles, emphasizing he must get open-mat takedowns and not gas against the cage. He notes Gruetzemacher is hard to take down against the cage but Puelles can succeed with open-mat shots. Jacob thinks Puelles is the pick but needs to avoid striking exchanges.
I lean Puelles. He has a slight technical striking advantage and should be able to land takedowns. His grappling is solid and he can control the fight on the ground. However, Gruetzemacher is durable and tough to finish. I expect Puelles to grind out a decision, and the decision prop at plus 210 is appealing.
Paul picks Gruetzemacher, citing his cardio, pressure, and recent win over Ralphy Garcia. He thinks Puelles is a one-dimensional grappler who gasses out, and that Gruetzemacher's volume and durability will be too much. Paul notes that Gruetzemacher has fought tougher competition.
The MMA Guru picks Claudio Puelles to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He believes Puelles will secure enough positional control and takedowns in the first two rounds, despite losing some stand-up exchanges. He notes Puelles' good hips and control on the mat, but expects Gruetzemacher to win the third round as Puelles tires. The fight will be decided by the early rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 71 of 100 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 10:01 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 170 of 213 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 38 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 23 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 35 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 37 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 97 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 20 of 33 | 60% | 6 of 14 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 18 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 21 of 34 | 61% | 4 of 14 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 12 | 19 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 12 of 16 | 75% | 0 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 13 of 17 | 76% | 3 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 14 |
| Jordan Leavitt | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
After a very important week to recover, the UFC is back with a stuffed card packed with 14 fights. We begin this marathon evening with a matchup in the lightweight division between promising prospects Puelles (9-2, 2-1 UFC) and “The Monkey King” Leavitt (8-0, 1-0 UFC). The first fight of the night sees a glove touch in front of referee Chris Tognoni, and the fun begins! Leavitt sticks out a long jab and reaches low with a leg kick, and another sticks the calf. Puelles responds with his own kick, and the two stand in front of the other striking with body kicks. Leavitt takes a heavy kick to the torso, and he reaches his arm out before shooting in low for a takedown. Puelles rolls through to scramble, and he stuffs one attempt only to wind up going to the ground on the second try. When the Peruvian gets back up, Leavitt doggedly continues to pursue his single, and they roll to get back to their feet. Leavitt continues to hold on to Puelles’ right leg, where he grinds his foe into the fence. After a stalemate, he trips Puelles’ leg out and gets him down, but only for a moment before Puelles pops back up. The two lightweights break apart, and Puelles chops at Leavitt’s lead leg repeatedly until shooting low for his own takedown. Leavitt reverses the position, but at the end of an exchange, Puelles puts him on his back. Leavitt throws his legs up for a high rubber guard as Puelles looks to advance position, and this forces the Peruvian to stand up and nearly get nailed with an upkick. Puelles lowers himself into his opponent’s guard, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Leavitt
Round 2
The lightweights cautious touch gloves to clock in the second round, and Puelles goes over the top with a left hand and a body kick. The two come together, with Puelles moving into the clinch, and he gets backed off with a sharp elbow from “The Monkey King.” A few jabs from both men come out as they try to reestablish their range, and Leavitt keeps his right elbow reached out until changing levels suddenly for a single. Puelles sprawls and aims to step over to gain advantageous position, but Leavitt sees it coming and changes angles to get down. Puelles takes Leavitt’s back for a second, but in the ensuing scramble, Leavitt defends with a kneebar or ankle lock setup. The Peruvian makes his way to take top position, and Leavitt throws his legs up for a shoulder lock and then another kneebar try, but Puelles sees them setting up and breaks them up with a stern elbow from on top. Leavitt responds with elbows from his back, and he backs Puelles off with an upkick. “El Nino” storms down with a left hand that surprises Leavitt, and he uses the momentum to circle around and take Leavitt’s back. Puelles hammers away with his fist as he swings it back and forth, all while looking to assume full control of the American’s back. Puelles secures a body triangle to lock up the position, and he starts methodically fishing for a choke. Leavitt keeps wrist control to stop any choke from being locked up, and Puelles elects to slap Leavitt in the face a few times and land heel kicks to the kidney before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Puelles
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Puelles
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Puelles
Round 3
One last glove touch checks in the final round, and Puelles immediately hits a takedown. Leavitt bucks and kicks, but Puelles stays composed and keeps him trapped on the canvas. Puelles postures up to nail his foe with an elbow, and Leavitt puts his legs up only to get smacked in the face by several fierce punches. Leavitt appears no worse for wear, but precious seconds are quickly ticking off the clock as he is stuck on his back. “The Monkey King” tries to kick off the cage, and his legs snatch Puelles’ neck with an inverted triangle, but the grip is not tight so he lets it go in north-south position. Puelles decides to sit flat on Leavitt’s face and pound at his body, and Tognoni asks for the Peruvian to stay busy in this uncomfortable position. Leavitt once more looks for an inverted triangle choke, and when nothing comes from it. Tognoni stands up. Puelles protests, and Leavitt is energized and rushes in to strike. Puelles shoots in for a reactive single, and he hits it with ease, leaving Leavitt frustrated and flat on his back. Leavitt throws hands from his back, but when Puelles sits or stands up with long punches, they are much more impactful than anything Leavitt can muster. The Peruvian ignores Leavitt’s submission setups and slaps on the ear, and he stays busy and advances his position. A few light ground strikes from both concludes this full-length bout.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Puelles (29-28 Puelles)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Puelles (29-28 Puelles)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Puelles (29-28 Puelles)
The Official Result
Claudio Puelles def. Jordan Leavitt via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady struggles with this fight, calling it a tough call. He notes that Jordan Leavitt's striking is poor and his takedowns are not set up well, but when Leavitt gets on top he looks good. He acknowledges Claudio Puelles is a brown belt and may have improved training at Sanford MMA, but ultimately favors Leavitt's grappling on the mat. He says he will have zero action on this fight due to the line being too wide.
Cody picks Leavitt, noting his grappling advantage and Puelles' long layoff. He thinks Leavitt's jiu-jitsu will be too much. Cody is confident but notes the price is high.
Daniel picks Leavitt via close decision, citing his superior ground game and transitions. He notes that Puelles has improved and trains at Sanford MMA, but Leavitt's jiu-jitsu is a step ahead in scrambles. Daniel believes Leavitt will get top control and win rounds, possibly by submission if Puelles makes a mistake. He acknowledges Puelles could survive and grind out a win, but favors Leavitt's experience and grappling edge.
I'm not sold on Jordan Leavitt; he's one-dimensional with poor striking. Puelles has a striking advantage and can nullify Leavitt's grappling. I expect Puelles to win, possibly by knockout or decision.
Paul picks Leavitt confidently, citing his superior grappling and youth. He notes Puelles has been out for three years and looked poor in the UFC. Paul thinks Leavitt will dictate where the fight goes and win via submission or decision.
The Guru picks Jordan Leavitt, citing his nasty jiu-jitsu transitions and grinding style. He notes that lesser grapplers have had success against Puelles on the ground, referencing the Felipe Silva fight where Silva controlled Puelles before getting caught. He believes Leavitt's grappling will be too much and predicts a late first-round arm triangle submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 101 of 116 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 13:20 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 23 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:41 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 51 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:48 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 22 of 34 | 64% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 29 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 8 of 15 | 53% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Marcos Rosa Mariano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 16 of 49 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Felipe Silva | 1 | 70 of 130 | 53% | 103 of 171 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 6 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Felipe Silva | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Silva | 0 | 39 of 73 | 53% | 55 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Felipe Silva | 1 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 16 of 49 | 32% | 11 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Felipe Silva | 70 of 130 | 53% | 48 of 101 | 12 of 17 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 75 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 49 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 6 of 10 | 60% | 5 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Felipe Silva | 12 of 28 | 42% | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 13 | |
| 2 | Claudio Puelles | 8 of 26 | 30% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Silva | 39 of 73 | 53% | 28 of 58 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 24 | |
| 3 | Claudio Puelles | 2 of 13 | 15% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Felipe Silva | 19 of 29 | 65% | 13 of 22 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 12 |
Clay Guida - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 14 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Hooper | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.
Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.
Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.
Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.
Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.
Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.
Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 43 of 134 | 32% | 63 of 155 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 4:23 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 85 of 141 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 19 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 40 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 29 of 48 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 26 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquim Silva | 43 of 134 | 32% | 19 of 103 | 14 of 20 | 10 of 11 | 36 of 127 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 46 of 91 | 50% | 33 of 72 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 64 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquim Silva | 18 of 64 | 28% | 6 of 51 | 6 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 32 | 46% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Joaquim Silva | 14 of 33 | 42% | 9 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 15 of 20 | 75% | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Joaquim Silva | 11 of 37 | 29% | 4 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 35 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.
Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.
Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.
Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 63 of 252 | 25% | 63 of 252 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 141 of 287 | 49% | 143 of 289 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 23 of 92 | 25% | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 34 of 89 | 38% | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 21 of 88 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 65 of 110 | 59% | 65 of 110 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 19 of 72 | 26% | 19 of 72 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 42 of 88 | 47% | 44 of 90 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 63 of 252 | 25% | 49 of 227 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 13 | 63 of 252 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 141 of 287 | 49% | 130 of 269 | 5 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 138 of 284 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 23 of 92 | 25% | 16 of 82 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 23 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 34 of 89 | 38% | 29 of 81 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 21 of 88 | 23% | 17 of 80 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 65 of 110 | 59% | 63 of 107 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 62 of 107 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 19 of 72 | 26% | 16 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 42 of 88 | 47% | 38 of 81 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)
Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.
Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.
Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.
Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.
Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.
Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.
The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.
Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 66 of 183 | 36% | 95 of 215 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 5:35 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 65 of 166 | 39% | 77 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 23 of 79 | 29% | 23 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 18 of 63 | 28% | 19 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 29 of 53 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 43 of 83 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Scott Holtzman | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 26 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 66 of 183 | 36% | 30 of 134 | 23 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 58 of 173 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 65 of 166 | 39% | 55 of 146 | 5 of 13 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 160 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 23 of 79 | 29% | 10 of 59 | 5 of 12 | 8 of 8 | 22 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 18 of 63 | 28% | 11 of 48 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 18 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 17 of 40 | 42% | 9 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Scott Holtzman | 22 of 42 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 26 of 64 | 40% | 11 of 44 | 13 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
| Scott Holtzman | 25 of 61 | 40% | 23 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.
Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.
Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.
Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.
Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.
The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.
Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.
The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.
Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:10 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Claudio Puelles | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Clay Guida | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 50 of 87 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 65 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 8 of 30 | 26% | 34 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 63 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Leonardo Santos | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 18 of 50 | 36% | 8 of 39 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 11 |
| Leonardo Santos | 41 of 60 | 68% | 22 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 8 of 30 | 26% | 6 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Leonardo Santos | 39 of 58 | 67% | 21 of 38 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 19 | 16 of 23 | 12 of 16 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 10 of 20 | 50% | 2 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Leonardo Santos | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.
Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.
Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.
Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.
Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.
I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.
Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 72 of 212 | 33% | 72 of 212 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 98 of 192 | 51% | 101 of 198 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 32 of 52 | 61% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 26 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 31 of 90 | 34% | 31 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Clay Guida | 0 | 35 of 82 | 42% | 35 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 72 of 212 | 33% | 30 of 161 | 5 of 13 | 37 of 38 | 64 of 203 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 98 of 192 | 51% | 70 of 159 | 17 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 80 of 172 | 18 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 15 of 50 | 30% | 7 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 32 of 52 | 61% | 17 of 33 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 36 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 26 of 72 | 36% | 10 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 13 | 22 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 31 of 58 | 53% | 24 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 31 of 90 | 34% | 13 of 67 | 2 of 7 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Clay Guida | 35 of 82 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.
Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.
Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.
Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.
The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 0 | 58 of 126 | 46% | 70 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 49 of 89 | 55% | 65 of 107 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 6:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 29 of 44 | 65% | 31 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Michael Johnson | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clay Guida | 58 of 126 | 46% | 52 of 113 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 115 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 |
| Michael Johnson | 49 of 89 | 55% | 31 of 71 | 12 of 12 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 72 | 14 of 14 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clay Guida | 31 of 66 | 46% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 62 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Johnson | 29 of 44 | 65% | 21 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Clay Guida | 14 of 27 | 51% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Michael Johnson | 13 of 24 | 54% | 4 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Clay Guida | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Michael Johnson | 7 of 21 | 33% | 6 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.
Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.
Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.
Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.
Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.
The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.
The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.
Watched the fight and couldnt tell you what happened. Cladio got some takedowns?
Both doing weight training. Joaquim loves to stiffen the shoulders and start swinging. Claudio comfortable being choked.