Philipe Lins

Angelo rolls the dice on Ion Cuțelaba, noting his dangerous grappling and power, despite his questionable chin. He thinks Cuțelaba can win because Lins hasn't faced good takedown artists. He warns Cuțelaba gets finished often but says his losses are to quality opponents. He won't bet on this fight due to Cuțelaba's chinny nature.

Big Brady picks Philipe Lins to win by decision, but is not confident. He calls the fight a 'dog or pass' because he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes that Cuțelaba has only 5 minutes of gas and tends to fade, while Lins has shown he can go 15 minutes. He expects a chaotic fight but thinks Lins can win a greasy decision.

Cody thinks Cuțelaba is explosive but has terrible cardio and often fades after the first round. He believes Lins is durable and can survive the initial onslaught, then take over as the fight goes on. However, he notes Lins has a history of pulling out of fights, which makes him hard to trust.

Daniel flips a coin and picks Cuțelaba. He notes Cuțelaba is dangerous early but can gas out, while Lins has been knocked out before but looked good at 205. He has very low confidence and says he could see it going either way.

Lins has been on a three-fight winning streak since moving down to light heavyweight, showing good power and the ability to mix in the clinch and wear on opponents. Cuțelaba relies on early knockouts but tends to gas out and become vulnerable if he doesn't get the finish. Lins is more skilled overall and should be able to roll with Cuțelaba's big shots, then grind on him in the clinch and slow him down. I expect Lins to showcase a full MMA arsenal and pick up a decision victory. The plus money is a good value.

Paul agrees that Cuțelaba is a one-round fighter and that Lins can weather the storm. He also notes Lins' durability and ability to go the distance, but he is concerned about Lins' frequent withdrawals from fights.

Angelo picks Maxim Grishin to win, citing Grishin's calculated striking and ability to rush in when he sees an opening. He notes that Lins is hittable and looked slow in his last knockout win, despite having power and a BJJ black belt. Angelo is concerned about Grishin's takedown defense (taken down 7 times in 4 fights) but still favors Grishin's striking. He is not betting this fight.

Cody picks Grishin, agreeing with Paul. He notes Grishin's volume and cardio should win a boring decision. Cody mentions Grishin's chin has held up and that Lins hasn't shown anything to worry him. He also notes Grishin's withdrawals against Jailton Almeida were good management. Cody expects a low-output fight where Grishin outpoints Lins.

Connor picks Lins, favoring his dynamic power and ability to end fights suddenly. He notes that Grishin, while difficult to finish, is low-output and often gets outworked. Connor believes Lins' swarming style and improved confidence at light heavyweight could overwhelm Grishin, especially if he lands early. He acknowledges the risk but prefers the chaotic power puncher over the safe neutralizer.

Daniel leans Grishin, citing his experience and ability to stifle opponents. He notes that Lins has chin issues and has gassed in fights, while Grishin is a solid, tough guy to look good against. He doesn't rule out a finish from Grishin but sees a decision as likely. He calls it a pass from a betting perspective.

Jacob picks Philipe Lins, believing Lins' volume and activity will win a decision. He thinks Lins has looked good at 205 and trusts his pressure, while Grishin fights like a slow, methodical heavyweight. Jacob acknowledges Lins is hittable and could get knocked out, but in a decision he favors Lins. He notes Lins' takedowns aren't great and Grishin can wrestle, but still picks Lins as a slight dog.

Grishin is the better overall fighter and better suited for 205 pounds. He can survive Lins' early attacks, then use clinch, grappling, and volume to win by decision. The line dropped from -180 to -130, which is an overcorrection that provides value.

Paul picks Grishin, citing his better volume and cardio. He notes Lins is untrustworthy and has low output. Paul expects a 15-minute sparring match where Grishin lands the better shots. He acknowledges Grishin's 16-month layoff and age (39) but thinks his chin and submission defense hold up. Paul is not heavily invested but picks Grishin.

The MMA Guru picks Maxim Grishin over Philipe Lins, citing Grishin's higher level of experience and tougher opponents. He notes that Grishin has fought the best in the division, including Dustin Jacoby (which he arguably should have won), and has a reach advantage. He also mentions Lins' history of failed weight cuts and canceled fights, and questions the quality of Lins' wins over OSP and Prachnio. The Guru believes Grishin's experience at a high level will be the deciding factor.

Angelo picks Lins because OSP is infuriatingly low-volume, often not letting his hands go and throwing one punch at a time. Lins has power, a BJJ black belt, and showed wrestling in his last fight with four takedowns. Angelo believes Lins will win by simply outworking OSP, who doesn't push the pace. He notes the line movement reflects public agreement.

Big Brady is not high on Lins but thinks OSP looks disinterested and has been in terrible fights recently. He notes Lins looked better at light heavyweight in his last fight, while OSP has been knocked out by Tanner Boser. He predicts Lins wins by first-round knockout, but warns against betting the -220 line.

Cody picks Lins but doesn't love the -200. He details OSP's decline: leg injury, weight-cutting issues, missing weight for the first time in his career, and poor performances. He says Lins is a better technical striker and should stand on the outside and out-volume OSP. He notes Lins has wrestling advantage and is younger with fewer fights. However, he says he needs to see weigh-ins because OSP has to make 205 and Lins has been out with injuries. He says he'll pick Lins but won't bet it.

Connor agrees, noting that Lins looked fast and powerful at light heavyweight, with a good boxing game based on straight punches and efficient combinations. He points out that OSP is incredibly passive and will give Lins space to build confidence. Connor also mentions that OSP's recent performances show a lack of confidence and a tendency to back up without offering a counter threat. He sees no reason to pick OSP.

Jacob trusts Lins more than OSP because OSP is comfortable being inactive. He thinks the odds at +200 are a bit disrespectful to OSP, as Lins isn't a dominant wrestler or powerful striker. Jacob expects a boring fight with Lins hanging on OSP's hips and winning a decision. He notes both have been knocked out by Tanner Boser, but Lins is the better overall fighter.

Lins has a grinding style with good forward pressure and clinch work, which should wear down OSP. OSP's cardio and aggression have declined, and he relies on a fading left hook. Lins can close distance, avoid the hook, and win a decision by controlling the cage and landing takedowns.

Paul picks Lins but won't bet it. He notes Lins leaned on wrestling against Prachnio, which could get him in trouble against OSP. He says OSP is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago; he's slow and has slowed down significantly. He says he doesn't see many advantages for OSP and this might be his last fight in the UFC. He says he'll pick Lins but needs to see weigh-ins.

The MMA Guru picks Philipe Lins, but with hesitation. He notes Lins' losses outside the UFC were to Vadim Nemkov, and he had a good PFL career. He criticizes OSP for taking Shogun to a close decision and getting ragdolled by Andre Petroski. He thinks Lins is younger, more motivated, and hungry after many canceled fights, predicting a decision or late second-round TKO.

Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.

Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.

Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.

The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.

Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.

Big Brady picks Tanner Boser as an underdog, citing Lins' poor UFC debut against Arlovski where he looked starstruck and threw little. He likes Boser's leg kicks and reach advantage, and thinks Lins will struggle to get inside. He predicts a decision win for Boser, noting that if anyone finishes, it's likely Boser.

Daniel Levi picks Philipe Lins, arguing that people are overrating Tanner Boser and misconstruing Lins's loss to Arlovski. He notes that Arlovski is a tough test for debutants and that Lins has faster hands and more power. Levi thinks Lins will stand in the pocket, land harder shots, and either knock Boser out or win a decision. He criticizes Boser's single-shot style and lack of aggression, predicting Lins will correct his previous low-volume performance.

Big Brady picks Philipe Lins to win by knockout, impressed by Lins' cardio and crisp striking on film. He believes Arlovski is on his way out at 41 and has been knocked out many times, while Lins has good volume and finishing ability. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he notes Arlovski has improved his boxing recently.

Daniel Levi picks Philipe Lins, noting his knockout power and composure, and that Arlovski is on a decline (3-10 in last 13). He mentions Lins' momentum from winning the PFL million and believes Lins will have a successful UFC debut, possibly by knockout or decision.