Career Averages - Kevin Holland
Career Averages - Joaquin Buckley
Kevin Holland - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 56 of 91 | 61% | 137 of 176 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 46 of 95 | 48% | 67 of 121 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 48 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 25 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 19 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 26 | 65% | 64 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 56 of 91 | 61% | 24 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 22 of 25 | 39 of 68 | 11 of 15 | 6 of 8 |
| Randy Brown | 46 of 95 | 48% | 25 of 65 | 14 of 17 | 7 of 13 | 31 of 75 | 12 of 17 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 20 of 34 | 58% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Randy Brown | 18 of 39 | 46% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 14 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 19 of 31 | 61% | 6 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Brown | 14 of 26 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 17 of 26 | 65% | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 15 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Brown | 14 of 30 | 46% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 19 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.
Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.
Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.
Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.
Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.
Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.
James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.
Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.
Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.
Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 52 of 137 | 37% | 76 of 162 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 49 of 95 | 51% | 50 of 99 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 2:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 22 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 23 of 70 | 32% | 23 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 31 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 52 of 137 | 37% | 23 of 96 | 9 of 13 | 20 of 28 | 49 of 127 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Mike Malott | 49 of 95 | 51% | 35 of 73 | 10 of 15 | 4 of 7 | 44 of 88 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 9 of 31 | 29% | 3 of 22 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
| Mike Malott | 12 of 29 | 41% | 8 of 20 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 23 of 70 | 32% | 12 of 55 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 22 of 68 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 26 of 42 | 61% | 17 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 20 of 36 | 55% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 19 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 11 of 24 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-115); Holland (+100)
Round 1
The co-main event comes in the form of what should be an all-action welterweight affair that could have a little something for everybody. The fan-favorite Holland (28-14, 1 NC; 15-11, 1 NC UFC) will have to be the villain tonight as he goes into hostile territory to take on the last Canadian-born fighter on the night in Malott (12-2-1, 5-1 UFC). The two will hunt for bonus cash—and there is steep competition tonight—while regionally unpopular referee Dan Miragliotta watches on. Holland tries fairly hard to get a glove touch, but the Canadian wants nothing to do with it.
Holland puts his hand down and his foot up, to start kicking Malott in the lead leg. Malott is struggling to get in on the longer Holland, so Holland can pepper his front leg on either side without worrying about something coming back. When Malott responds with his own leg kick, Holland hops and swats out a left hand. The two appear to clash heads when coming at one another, and Malott unloads with a short combination before Holland can reach him. Malott fires off a body kick, and Holland knocks him off his feet with a fierce right hand. Holland considers slamming down high-amplitude hammerfists, and he leaps on top and delivers some damage. Holland stands back up and starts punching the Canadian in the thigh. Malott hits a sneaky sweep to put Holland on his seat.
Holland fights his way back up, and when Malott tries for a mat return, Holland bends like a reed in the wind and rolls all the way through the takedown attempt to end up on top. The welterweights scramble back to their feet, and clashing kicks leads to Malott inadvertently kicking Holland in the groin. Miragliotta calls time, and Holland laughs it off and is good to go within 20 seconds. They resume, and Holland appears fine, as he reaches Malott and knocks him back with a clean left hand. “Trailblazer” leaps at his man with a right hand, and he keeps his balance when Malott wraps him up to drag him down. When they tie up, Malott drills him in the groin with a knee, and Holland is not so jovial about it as he collapses to his knees.
Miragliotta tells the replay officials that he could hear the impact of the second groin strike, and he tells Malott that he knows that it was an accident but reminds him that it was two infractions already and the second appears to have clearly compromised the Texan. Holland gets to his knees but is still clutching his groin, and he reaches in to try to adjust himself and nearly exposes himself on camera. The replay officials appear to be confused, even though it is clear on the video that there was contact on the cup. Holland tries to stand after two-and-a-half minutes, and he is frustrated that the crowd is booing him and pulls himself up to his feet all while shaking his head repeatedly. Miragliotta tells Holland to take as much time as he needs, which is a smidge over a minute remaining. Miragliotta gives Malott a stern warning for the second groin shot, with no point deduction as commentator Daniel Cormier laments there is no consistency in regards to officiating these days with a fighter earlier losing a point from the first foul. Holland tries as hard as he can to shake off the injury, and he tells Miragliotta he is good to go 15 seconds later than stoppage time.
He is still in serious pain, and he takes more time to tap gloves with Malott and backpedals. Holland still adjusts his cup while dodging swings aimed at his head, and Malott allows him to recover even longer before going at him with a right hand and a head kick that are out of range. Holland gets up close to deliver an uppercut, and he bounces back in pain. Holland walks off before time elapses, and Malott throws his hands in the air out of frustration. The round ends with Holland suffering greatly, and it’s anyone’s guess what will happen between rounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
Miragliotta calls in the doctor between rounds to check on Holland, who has not yet recovered. The doctor tells Holland that he will have to stop the fight if Holland cannot keep going, and again confusion and chaos is about as they are trying to ask him if he is able to continue. Holland doesn’t say yes or no, and instead grimaces in pain and adjusts himself. As he waits, eventually someone signals that he can keep going and that he cannot keep taking more time. The minute break may have been doubled based on that. Holland flashes his jab to keep his range and not let the Canadian to get him as he still tries to bounce around and relieve the pressure. Malott tosses out a half-hearted front kick, and Holland responds with a heavier one. Malott opens up with a flurry of fists, and Holland shoulder rolls them and takes a body kick. He keeps being his jab, and wings a clubbing right that is easily blocked, unable to put much power behind his punches. He ducks a takedown attempt and scoops a left around the guard to surprise his opponent. Holland swats out with lefts, and Malott tags him with a right hand. Malott’s front kick reaches the target of the jaw, and the replies from “Trailblazer” are a front kick and one to the calf.
The Texan narrowly avoids a left hand and pitches out a side kick, and they crack one another with simultaneous right hands. Holland slips back, and a front kick brushes the top of Malott’s shorts. Holland takes a heavy left hand and gathers his thoughts, sticking Malott with a low kick and a front kick. Holland sits down on a crisp right hand, and Malott walks through it. Holland adjusts his athletic support that is still bothering him, and a clinch leads to nowhere so they split up. Malott walks Holland down and decks him with several punches and a knee, and Holland rebounds off the fencing and fires back with a right hand to keep Malott honest. Holland tries for a one-two, and he is intercepted on the way out. Holland bloodies the Canadian’s nose with a jab and an uppercut that follows, and Malott tries to drive him back with a front kick but is elbowed for his handiwork. The round ends with Malott’s nose positively gushing blood.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Holland is still messed up from the groin shots, and tells Malott to keep things clean. They get down to it, with scores possibly two up for Malott or all tied up. Malott jabs the body with his toes outstretched, and Holland chips at his front leg a few times before darting him behind two left hands. Malott counters him up top, and lets Holland throw a kick to go for a big left hand. Holland re-opens Malott’s nose with jabs, and Malott takes a deep breath and blitzes forward. Holland keeps himself largely clear of danger, although the Canadian catches him with a few strikes. Holland’s own offense bounds off the guard, other than a stomping kick to the knee that briefly hyperextends it. Malott reaches out with a push kick to the upper chest, and Holland’s response is to the calf. Holland scores a single right hand and leans back from the obligatory counter, and Malott slides to the side and gets off a side kick and one high. Holland scoots his way forward and eats a few punches.
Holland lands a one-two, and Malott appears to get his attention as Holland bends over and briefly considers a takedown. He bails on it to stand up and further bloody up the Canadian. Malott runs at his opponent and lifts him off the ground, and Holland’s arm goes out of the cage as he apologizes and says he is not grabbing anything but just has long arms. Malott pulls him back inside and down flat on his back, and he smothers “Trailblazer” and bashes him with right hands. Holland uses upkicks and butterfly hooks to frame off, only for Malott to slice through and climb into half guard with 60 seconds remaining. Malott threatens with an arm-triangle choke, stepping over to full mount and then to the side to complete the submission. The ultra-slippery Holland reverse-somersaults to somehow get out of the submission, and he worms his way back to his feet with Malott right after him. The Canadian bullies him to the wire, and looks for a mat return to wrap things up. Instead, he elbows Holland once, and they shake hands after time expires with no bad blood between them. That was certainly a fight of all time.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Malott (29-28 Malott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott (30-27 Malott)
The Official Result
Mike Malott def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mike Malott, citing his high fight IQ, technical improvements after the Magny loss, and well-rounded skills. He criticizes Kevin Holland's inconsistency and poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, calling it an all-time low. He trusts Malott's control and power.
Big Brady has zero trust in Kevin Holland after his loss to Daniel Rodriguez, calling him a dumbass and declining. He questions Malott's durability and cardio but picks him by default. He predicts Malott takes Holland down and submits him, noting Holland's ground game stinks.
Cody picks Malott, citing Kevin Holland's recent durability issues and high fight frequency. He notes Holland was knocked down twice by Daniel Rodriguez, a sign of declining chin. Malott has a wrestling advantage and can mix takedowns with striking. Cody believes Malott will win by decision or late stoppage, especially with home crowd support.
Connor picks Malott, emphasizing that Holland cannot be trusted to fight disciplined. He notes that Malott is proficient and consistent, with sharp boxing in the pocket. Connor points out that Holland's approach of 'having fun' leads to messy fights, and his chin may be deteriorating after getting hurt by Daniel Rodriguez. He believes Malott can outwork Holland.
James admits he has a poor track record betting on Malott fights but picks Malott due to his skill set and potential improvements after the Neil Magny loss. He questions Kevin Holland's recent form and durability, noting Holland's poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez. James expects a slow-paced fight and predicts Malott via decision, though he is not confident.
The host thinks this is a tough stylistic matchup for Malott. He believes Holland can pick Malott apart from distance with his speed, range, and distance work, and will eventually find a big shot to put Malott away.
Paul picks Holland, arguing that the D-Rod fight was on short notice and Holland has had three months to prepare. He believes Holland's length and reach advantage will be key, and that Malott may gas as he did against Magny. Paul sees value in Holland as a dog and plans to bet him.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott over Kevin Holland. He notes Malott's submission skills and takedowns, and his game plan against Neil Magny. He criticizes Holland's inconsistency and chin issues. He predicts Malott will chew at the leg, get takedowns, and finish by arm triangle submission in round two.
Zane picks Malott, citing his composure, defensive soundness, and ability to pick targets. He notes that Malott can outwrestle Holland and kick his legs. Zane is concerned about Holland's inconsistency and recent poor performance against Daniel Rodriguez, where Holland made terrible errors and got hurt. He believes Malott will fight a smart fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 82 of 173 | 47% | 111 of 207 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 111 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 82 of 173 | 47% | 53 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 25 | 60 of 137 | 17 of 27 | 5 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 77 of 149 | 51% | 49 of 106 | 13 of 26 | 15 of 17 | 54 of 107 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 40 of 83 | 48% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 39 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 29 of 60 | 48% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 31 of 55 | 56% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 27 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 25 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)
Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.
Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.
Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.
The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 24 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 35 of 64 | 54% | 39 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicente Luque | 24 of 46 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 58 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 56 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vicente Luque | 22 of 40 | 55% | 13 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 35 of 64 | 54% | 23 of 51 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 46 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vicente Luque | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-265), Luque (+215)
Round 1
The referee for our main card opener is Keith Peterson. Luque takes the center of the Octagon, while Holland is already talking. Luque catches a kick, but Holland lands a half-dozen punches and makes his opponent pay for just standing there. A left hook from Luque hits the shoulder of Holland. Luque follows up a left hook with a nice leg kick. Holland lands a nice elbow that hurts Luque, who fires back with an overhand that keeps Holland from pressuring. Luque lands a double jab, which isn't enough to keep Holland from talking every second of this fight. There is a huge knot on the side of Luque's head where the elbow landed. It looks nasty. Luque stuns Holland with a left hook, but Holland responds nicely by slipping a punch and landing a right hook. Nice jab to the body by Holland. Luque lands a leg kick, which allows Holland to land a right hand. High kick from Holland is blocked.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The round starts with Holland missing a huge right hook. Luque is struggling with the length of Holland, who is able to attack from a distance. Holland catches a kick from Luque and pushes him to the ground. Luque tries to get up, but Holland sinks in a brabo choke. It looks tight, and Luque is forced to tap.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Vicente Luque via Submission (Brabo Choke); R2, 1:03.
Angelo picks Vicente Luque over Kevin Holland because he trusts Vicente to execute a game plan, while Kevin is unreliable with poor takedown defense and a lack of care. He notes Kevin's takedown defense is still poor despite his length and jiu-jitsu. He thinks even a fraction of Vicente's wrestling from the Dos Anjos fight will be enough.
Big Brady is very confident in Kevin Holland, citing Luque's recent durability issues and quitting in his last fight. He believes Luque will try to wrestle but Holland is hard to wrestle at welterweight. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Holland will hurt Luque and knock him out early, possibly in the first round. He notes Luque's brain hemorrhage and that he shouldn't be fighting.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Holland. He emphasizes that Luque has slowed down and his reactions are worse, while Holland is still physically sharp. Connor notes that Holland's best performances come when he is not forced to pressure, and Luque's forward pressure will allow Holland to counter effectively. He sees this as a winnable matchup for Holland.
The host went back and forth on this fight. He ultimately sticks with Kevin Holland winning by knockout due to his speed and power, but notes that Vicente Luque is a very live underdog, especially if he can get takedowns and use his submission game.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, despite being a big fan of Luque. He believes Holland's range and volume will be key, as Luque struggles against fighters who stay at range and don't overcommit. He notes Holland's durability and ability to fight from bottom. He predicts a decision win for Holland, possibly 29-28, with Luque winning a round.
Zane picks Kevin Holland, noting that when Holland fights on the back foot he uses his jab effectively and looks like a complete boxer. He believes Luque's slower reactions and declining chin will be exploited by Holland's reach and counterpunching. Zane thinks this matchup favors Holland's style, similar to his win over Jack Della Maddalena.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 15 of 24 | 62% | 30 of 44 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 9:29 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 55 of 89 | 61% | 138 of 178 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 13 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 31 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 23 | 73% | 73 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 10 of 13 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 34 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Nelson | 15 of 24 | 62% | 10 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 55 of 89 | 61% | 30 of 57 | 15 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 15 of 34 | 22 of 27 | 18 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gunnar Nelson | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 37 | 51% | 10 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 13 | |
| 2 | Gunnar Nelson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 23 | 73% | 9 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 9 | |
| 3 | Gunnar Nelson | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 |
| Kevin Holland | 19 of 29 | 65% | 11 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nelson (-130), Holland (+110)
Round 1
Dan Movahedi will referee Nelson’s first fight since March 2023. Holland opens with a pair of inside leg kicks. Nelson is operating from his usual karate stance. Another leg kick for Holland, who has a significant reach edge. Nelson tries to charge in, but he’s rebuffed by Holland. Holland with a long jab and right hand. Nelson shoots and gets Holland down. Holland is active from his back, threatening with submissions, but Nelson is a savvy grappler. Nelson stands and picks Holland up with one arm and both fighters share a laugh. Nelson goes back to work from above, but he’ll have to navigate his foe’s long limbs. Holland is landing hammerfists from his bck on occasion. Nelson with a solid right from top position. Holland lands an elbow from his back. Nelson is struggling to find openings for offense from above. The Iceland native drops a short elbow. Nelson stands and has to worry about Holland’s upkicks before moving back on top. They stand late in the round, and Holland drops Nelson with a one-two. He hovers over Nelson and drops heavy standing to ground shots. Nelson is saved by the horn, but Holland might've landed one after the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
Holland is aggressive, and he punches his way into the clinch behind an uppercut. Holland with a knee and a foot stomp. They separate and size each other up from range. Holland with a solid inside low kick. Holland is measuring the right hand that dropped Nelson in Round 1. Nelson is working hard for a takedown, but Holland is able to stay upright. Nelson adjusts against the fence, but Holland maintains his footing. Nelson is clinging to the leg, and Holland stays busy with short strikes. Nelson pulls Holland off the fence and drags him to the canvas with about 2:00 to go. Nelson is in top position, but Holland is active again, both with his guard and strikes from his back. Nelson is simply holding position as Holland continues to work from his back. Holland with an upkick as Nelson stands. Nelson works his way back into full guard as the round draws to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Holland chips away at the legs of Nelson before they collide in the clinch. Holland lands a knee in close. Nelson counters with uppercuts, but another Holland knee gets through. Nelson decides against continuing to trade offense in the clinch, and he changes levels for a takedown. Nelson moves into full mount with ease. Holland kicks off the fence to remove Nelson from mount, but the grappling ace is still in top position. Holland is warned to remove his toes from the cage. Nelson absorbs a series of heel strikes to to the head. He responds by dropping a right from above. Nelson transitions to an arm triangle during a scramble. He’s close to the cage, but it looks pretty deep. Holland looks comfortable for now, and he’s able to eventually escape to his feet. Holland pushes Nelson into the fence. Nelson is looking at the clock now. Holland with a knee to the midsection. Back at range, Holland connects with a front kick. Nelson closes the distance but eats another knee for his efforts. Holland denies a takedown and the welterweights battle in the clinch. Holland breaks free and falls to his back after missing on a knee before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nelson (29-28 Holland)
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Gunnar Nelson via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Kevin Holland despite his poor takedown defense, arguing that skill-wise Holland is the better fighter. He notes that Holland is likely fighting for his job at welterweight and will be motivated. He criticizes Gunnar Nelson's inactivity (2 years), poor striking differential, and lack of wins over active UFC fighters. He has a small bet on Holland.
Brady is very hesitant but picks Holland, calling it 'One Last Ride'. He notes Nelson is 36, inactive (2 fights in 5 years), has no striking, and is coming off a 2-year layoff. Holland has an astronomical striking advantage and is fighting at welterweight where he belongs. Brady predicts a second-round knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nelson. He highlights Holland's inability to wrestle seriously and his tendency to fall apart when pressured. Nelson's striking, though limited, will force Holland to close distance, leading to takedowns and submissions. Connor is confident Nelson will look the same despite the layoff.
The host notes Nelson doesn't fight often but still showcases superb jiu-jitsu. He expects Nelson to get a body lock, drag the fight to the ground, find the back, and secure a submission win over Holland.
The Guru confidently picks Gunnar Nelson, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and takedown entries. He expects Nelson to get a takedown, take Holland's back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the first round. He notes that Holland is susceptible to grapplers and has not finished anyone early in a long time. He acknowledges a small chance Holland lands a 45-70 kick but dismisses it.
Zane confidently picks Nelson, arguing that Holland's poor wrestling and tendency to crash forward will play directly into Nelson's strengths. Nelson's karate-style striking and elite ground game will exploit Holland's lack of takedown defense and submission awareness. He expects Holland to either get taken down and submitted or run into Nelson's clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 27 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 |
| Kevin Holland | 12 of 21 | 57% | 11 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)
Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.
Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.
Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.
Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.
Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.
The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.
The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.
Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 0 | 19 of 33 | 57% | 57 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 18 of 28 | 64% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 19 of 33 | 57% | 16 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 |
| Kevin Holland | 18 of 28 | 64% | 5 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 18 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-162), Dolidze (+136)
Round 1
Stepping in for fellow Xtreme Couture product Chris Curtis, Dolidze (13-3, 7-3 UFC) will drop down in weight for this middleweight matchup. He stands across the cage from Holland (26-11, 1 NC; 13-8, 1 NC UFC), content to let his fists do the talking. The men that share knockout rates of 54% apiece will be joined in the cage by referee Jason Herzog. They opt to clap hands, and a front kick from Holland follows shortly thereafter. Dolidze takes the center of the cage but cannot get out of the way from two more kicks, and Holland jumps forward to reach him with a left hook around the guard. Holland slaps a pair of low kicks on the inner thigh, and he strafes around to not let Dolidze corner him. Holland’s kicks peck at the Georgian, and he chains two punches up top before landing with a leg kick. Dolidze scores a left hand, and he gets tripped up when Holland grabs hold of his kicking leg to stumble him. Dolidze resets and plods forward, and Holland uses his reach advantage to get off three punches before Dolidze hits him back. Dolidze fires back with a vengeance, and his strikes largely go wide. Holland chips at the front leg as he stays moving, and he tosses out another from the other leg. Dolidze charges like a bull, tackling Holland to the mat and putting him on his back relatively easily. Holland wraps his legs around the waist, hand-fighting to not let Dolidze hit him cleanly. Dolidze softens Holland up with ground-and-pound, landing short shots until Holland opens his guard and heel strikes the Georgian in the kidney repeatedly. The crowd turns on the ground fighting, and the fighters do little different to change their strategies. Holland goes back and forth between a body lock off his back and striking with his heel, and Dolidze is happy to slug away. Holland rolls for an armbar, and he rolls over and something awkward happens as Holland appears to be injured or compromised. Holland keeps moving, and he turns to his back as Dolidze climbs into full mount. Herzog asks for more activity, and Holland starts talking trash to Dolidze while Dolidze is busting him in the face with elbows and powerful punches. The horn sounds, and Holland stands up and points to his rib. Holland goes back to his corner, and he tells his team that he is struggling and does not want to quit. Holland’s corner asks him repeatedly if he can keep going. Holland’s coach, Kru Bob Perez, decides that Holland needs to be saved from himself to fight another day and calls the fight off. Meanwhile, the victorious Dolidze is awarded his jiu-jitsu black belt for the technical knockout victory.
The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland R1 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze to win inside the distance, betting on his superior grappling. He notes Dolidze is a world champion grappler and should easily take down Kevin Holland, who has poor takedown defense. However, he expresses concern that Dolidze might not use his grappling and could get out-struck. He recommends betting 'Win inside the distance - decision no action' to mitigate risk, as Dolidze often wins by decision or finish.
Big Brady picks Roman Dolidze by submission in the second round, citing Holland's well-known weakness against wrestlers who can take him down and hold him down. He notes Dolidze is a big, strong middleweight with excellent grappling, and Holland has been submitted before. He also mentions a possible decision win if Dolidze controls with clinching and top pressure.
Cody picks Holland, emphasizing his speed, reach, and volume striking. He doubts Dolidze's wrestling and BJJ effectiveness, noting Holland's takedown defense and submission skills. He believes Holland can outpoint Dolidze on the feet.
Connor also picks Dolidze, agreeing that Dolidze's size and strength will be decisive. He notes that Dolidze is a nasty opportunistic grappler and that Holland's tendency to get tied up will play into Dolidze's hands. Connor thinks this is a terrible matchup for Holland and expects a dull, grinding win for Dolidze.
Daniel Vreeland picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland. He notes that Dolidze is a good grappler with sharp transitions, and that Holland's weakness is being outgrappled by strong grapplers. He also criticizes Holland for fighting at middleweight, where he is undersized and gets bullied, whereas Dolidze has fought at light heavyweight and can handle the size. Vreeland believes Dolidze will get the ground game going and potentially submit Holland, though he acknowledges Holland hasn't been submitted in a while.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Roman Dolidze, having bet on him at plus money. He believes Dolidze's physicality and grappling will be too much for Kevin Holland, who gives up easy takedowns. Vreeland points to common opponents like Marvin Vettori and Kyle Daukaus, where Dolidze performed better than Holland. He expects Dolidze to pin Holland against the fence, take him down, and eventually submit him.
Jeff Fox picks Kevin Holland but is hesitant. He notes that Holland won his last fight but didn't look good, and that he fought up a weight class. Fox is afraid Holland will get underneath his opponent on the ground and just do what he does, lying on his back. He hopes Holland doesn't do that because he's a good enough grappler not to have to, and he's the better striker. Fox acknowledges it's hard to pick Kevin Holland.
The host is surprised the line is as close as it is. He believes Dolidze's reckless fighting style will lead him to be picked apart by Kevin Holland, who is quicker and more accurate with shots down the pipe. He expects good footwork, range management, and solid grappling defense from Holland to keep the fight standing and win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Dolidze, citing his physicality and ability to make the fight ugly. He worries about Holland's chin and thinks Dolidze can close the distance and use his strength. He notes Dolidze's recent volume striking against Anthony Smith.
The MMA Guru picks Roman Dolidze over Kevin Holland, citing Dolidze's chin, leg kicks, and top control. He notes Dolidze trains at altitude and is active, while Holland's late-round finishing ability is questionable at altitude. He believes Dolidze will low kick Holland and eventually get takedowns, using his size advantage. He also mentions Holland's submission threat off his back but thinks Dolidze will be cautious.
Zane picks Dolidze, expecting a frustrating fight where Dolidze uses his size and strength to push Holland against the fence and tie him up. He notes that Holland tends to allow himself to be cornered and hugged by larger opponents, and Dolidze's grappling will be too much for Holland. Zane is not excited for this fight but sees Dolidze as the clear winner.
Joaquin Buckley - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 77 of 180 | 42% | 245 of 416 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 51 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 90 of 161 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 104 of 166 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 77 of 180 | 42% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 165 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 34 of 68 | 50% | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 59 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 18 of 52 | 34% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 50 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 25 of 60 | 41% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 56 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-170), Buckley (+142)
Round 1
Don’t ask us how Philadelphia’s Brady (18-2, 8-2 UFC) went from a betting favorite around -170 earlier today to an underdog surpassing +200. Someone, possibly including Buckley (21-7, 11-5 UFC) and his team, knows something we don’t. Rumors have swirled that Brady’s knee or nose may be compromised heading into this welterweight contest. Based on these irregularities, the UFC should have erred on the side of caution to shut this fight down. Nevertheless, they persist. Referee Keith Peterson watches as they do not touch gloves, and we do not have a punchline or any nonsense for this one.
Buckley runs out of his corner right after Brady, buzzing past him to find an angle and work his way in. Brady jabs him back, but he already has a bit of marking on his nose. Buckley reaches a left hand over the top and follows with a head kick, and both are blocked. Brady slowly works his way forward before suddenly changing his tempo with a left hand and a clinch attempt. Brady is stuffed, so he backs off and shoots for a double. Buckley shuts him down a second time and offers up a front kick on his own side. Buckley kicks the front leg, which allows Brady to tackle him to the mat and land directly in half guard. Brady postures up to land a few strikes but is much more interested in advancing.
The Pennsylvanian gets into full mount and starts wrapping punches around either side of the guard. Brady rains down punishment, sullying Buckley’s unblemished face by battering it with his fists. Peterson tells Buckley to fight back, so Buckley kicks off the fencing to change positions. Brady thinks about a kimura while on top, gripping Buckley’s right arm and stepping over to side control and north-south. Buckley torques the limb, and he lets it go to not allow Buckley to explode and get away. Buckley bucks, but Brady floats over him to stay in side control landing shots until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Brady opens up the second round with a head kick and a spinning back fist, and Buckley ducks under them to engage. Brady hoists him to the mat from behind when getting his hands on the kickboxer, hurling Buckley to his back to pick up where he left off in side control. Brady alternates between ground strikes and improving his position, and he climbs into full mount. Brady stays tightly pressed to Buckley when not landing punches. Buckley kicks and bucks to the best of his ability, and he miraculously explodes back to his feet and goes right after Brady. Buckley scores a few punches, and when he is about to drive a knee into the chest, Brady catches it out of the air and takes him back down to suck the wind out of the building.
Brady climbs back into full mount without waiting too long, and he revs up his engine and starts clobbering Buckley with his fists. Brady turns higher amplitude blows into rapid swings more like Donkey Kong hammerfists, but these are not about to finish the fight. He goes back to picking his openings while Buckley is covered up, and he slashes down with elbows to boot. Buckley has no answers, with Brady drumming on him with strong elbows. Brady allows Buckley to punch back so he can hack with more elbows. This continues right to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The last round opens with Buckley pushing the pace and swarming his way forward. This offense works against him as he continues to race after the Pennsylvanian, as Brady times a perfect takedown to put him on his back again. Brady positions himself in half guard to smother his opponent, holding him down with his left hand and slugging him with his right. Brady briefly claims mount, but peels himself back to the half guard so he can maintain control. Brady wraps his left arm around Buckley’s head to constantly threaten with an arm-triangle setup, staying busy with punches when not doing so.
Brady reassumes full mount, slicing through like a hot knife through butter, and his bombardment of ground strikes continues. Brady pushes himself to the side for a brief submission threat, but gets back to mount to club Buckley with a seemingly never-ending stream of punches. Buckley is completely out of ideas, and Brady pushes on and hangs on the cage to remain on top. Brady thumps Buckley with heavier punches, as if he were taking some frustration out on his opponent about the bizarro betting odds situation surrounding the fight. He proudly ruined the opposing bettors' days as he completely, utterly dominated Buckley, remaining on the offense all the way to the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-26 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-27)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing his dangerous striking and takedown defense. He notes Buckley defended nine takedowns against Usman and landed more significant strikes despite control time. He thinks Brady's chin is suspect after his last knockout loss. He believes Buckley can scramble and get back to striking. He trusts Buckley to let his hands go and not accept positions.
Angelo leans towards Buckley because he saw Buckley throw hands against Usman and not get frozen by takedown threats. He thinks Buckley understands the matchup and will try to knock Brady out. However, he doesn't trust it enough to spend actual money.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Joaquin Buckley, reasoning that in a fight that could go either way, he prefers the underdog. He notes Buckley has power and could knock out Brady if he stuffs takedowns. However, he acknowledges Brady could maul Buckley on the ground. Brady predicts Buckley wins by knockout, but with low confidence.
Cody picks Buckley as an underdog, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience against wrestlers like Usman and Covington. He thinks Buckley can stuff takedowns and land a knockout, as Brady's striking and chin are questionable. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brady but hesitantly, agreeing with Zane. He notes Buckley's predictable timing and movement, but his relentless pressure could break Brady if the fight goes long. Connor thinks Brady's wrestling should win in three rounds, but Buckley's confidence and cardio make it interesting. He prefers it as a five-round fight.
Daniel picks Buckley, arguing that Brady is a great hammer but not a great nail, and has wilted when pressured. He believes Buckley's power and unpredictability will lead to a knockout, and that Buckley's takedown defense is underrated. Daniel thinks the Usman fight was an anomaly due to the bright lights.
Brady has a huge grappling edge; Buckley's takedown defense and ground game are weak (Usman held him down easily). Brady's offensive wrestling is good, but his control can be compromised by short legs. However, if Brady keeps it simple and controls Buckley from top position with ground and pound, he should win comfortably. Striking gap is not massive; Brady can hold his own. The only way Buckley wins is a flash KO or major improvements to his takedown defense, which is unlikely.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Buckley has been on a tear, with four straight wins including a KO over Stephen Thompson and a TKO over Colby Covington. His southpaw stance and power (3.88 SLpM, 36% accuracy) pose problems for Brady, who is coming off a KO loss to Michael Morales. Brady's strength is grappling (3.53 takedowns per round), but Buckley has 72% takedown defense and has shown improved wrestling. Buckley's reach advantage (76" vs 72") helps him land from distance. Expect Buckley to stuff takedowns and land a knockout in the later rounds.
Jacob is confident in Sean Brady, arguing that Brady is a better grappler than Usman and that Buckley looked clueless on the ground against Usman. He believes Brady will outgrapple Buckley and possibly finish him. He notes that Buckley is 4-5 in the UFC when he doesn't record a takedown.
Lucrative James picks Sean Brady because he believes Brady's grappling will be the difference, similar to how Kamaru Usman dominated Buckley. He notes Buckley's poor jiu-jitsu off his back and Brady's superior submission skills. He predicts Brady will submit Buckley via arm triangle, though he acknowledges Buckley's athleticism could make it competitive early. He also mentions Brady's recent knee injury but thinks he will perform.
The host picks Brady by submission, believing his grappling will be too much for Buckley. He notes that Buckley's power is not as dangerous as Morales', and Brady should be able to get takedowns and find dominant positions. He expects a dominant performance and a submission win.
Paul also picks Buckley, citing his improvements against high-level wrestlers and Brady's limited striking and durability. He thinks Buckley's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Brady's path to victory is narrow. Paul expects Buckley to win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady, citing his high-level grappling and ability to exploit Buckley's wrestling weaknesses. He notes Usman easily held down Buckley, and Brady's takedown timing is excellent. He believes Buckley's forward-jumping style plays into Brady's reactive takedowns. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Brady but hesitantly, noting Buckley's unflappability and cardio could cause problems. He points out that Brady's wrestling should dominate, but Brady has psychological limitations and may fall into striking. Zane wishes it were five rounds, as Buckley's pressure could break Brady over time. He sees Brady's path as early takedown control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 41 of 99 | 41% | 137 of 243 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 12:57 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 44 of 148 | 29% | 51 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 41 of 99 | 41% | 33 of 89 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 26 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 44 of 148 | 29% | 29 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 144 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 35 | 28% | 5 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 6 of 20 | 30% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 11 of 34 | 32% | 6 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 20 of 58 | 34% | 16 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)
Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.
Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.
Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.
The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.
Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 37 of 124 | 29% | 71 of 161 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 75 of 151 | 49% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 51 | 19% | 10 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 29 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 37 of 124 | 29% | 26 of 108 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Colby Covington | 75 of 151 | 49% | 59 of 131 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 65 of 135 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 51 | 19% | 5 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 28 of 55 | 50% | 20 of 46 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 24 of 41 | 58% | 21 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-285), Covington (+230)
Round 1
Refereeing the final UFC fight of 2024 is Dan Miragliotta. Covington lands a body kick to start. Buckley takes the center and starts to walk down "Chaos." Covington throwing out his jab, which Buckley walks into. "New Mansa" is struggling against the jab and coming up short as he throws hard-hitting hooks. Covington's first takedown attempt is stuffed easily by Buckley. "Chaos" is cut over his right eye. Head kick thrown by Buckley, who then comes over the top with a left hook. Covington lands an uppercut and follows it up with a series of left hooks. The jab of Covington continues to keep Buckley at bay. Covington goes for another takedown with a minute left. Buckley controls the head and stays upright. Buckley is looking good as he lands a right hand with five seconds to go that floors Covington. "Chaos" was potentially saved by the bell, but on second look it appears to be more of a slip.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley defends another takedown attempt and punishes Covington with a series of right hooks to the body. Buckley has really found his stride and looks monstrous. Big uppercut to the body for Buckley. Covington finally gets a successful takedown and gets into side control. Buckley is able to recover half-guard and then uses the cage to get back to his feet with two minutes left. Covington eats a kick, and Buckley is staying very composed. Nice jab and straight from Covington. Big leg kick from Buckley, who has controlled the action on the feet. Buckley uses a hard jab and is targeting the right eye of Covington that is already damaged.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
Covington is told he has to protect his eye by the doctor. Buckley stuffs a takedown. Buckley is working his jab. Covington does a spinning jump kick. Buckley fires back with hooks and then stuffs a bad takedown attempt. Buckley gets into full mount but Covington is able to get up. Buckley lands a big uppercut that hurts "Chaos." Covington's eye is further damaged, and he has a crimson mask. Big left hook for Buckley. "New Mansa" is in total control. Covington has another takedown attempt stuffed. Buckley is punishing Covington on the ground with heavy punches and elbows. Covington is showing heart and scrambles. Buckley locks in a triangle choke in an attempt to get his first submission win. Covington escapes and is now in full guard. Covington is landing some small punches on top. Buckley is attempting to wall walk with a minute left. Covington is back on his feet and has been clearly outstruck so far. The fight is paused for the doctor to look at Covington's eye. She has concerns about Covington's eye, and the one-sided fight is waved off.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Colby Covington via TKO (Doctor's Stoppage); R3, 4:42.
Angelo picks Buckley because it is a 'what have you done for me lately' sport and Covington looked like a shell of himself in his last fight. He notes Buckley's power, movement, and doggedness, while Covington's pressure and wrestling were absent. He believes if the old Covington shows up he wins, but the recent version gets smoked. He is not sure if he will bet on it.
Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, going against the grain. He thinks the line is too wide and that Covington can take Buckley down easily, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Buckley has never been past three rounds and has struggled against wrestlers like Abdul Razak Alhassan. He acknowledges Covington's last performance was terrible but attributes it to a broken foot.
Cody picks Colby Covington as a live underdog, citing his elite wrestling, cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He believes Buckley's path to victory relies on a knockout or takedowns, but Covington's takedown defense and pressure will neutralize that. Cody also notes Covington's motivation in a potential retirement fight and the hometown crowd advantage in Florida.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Covington's confidence is shattered and his style requires constant pressure, which he no longer provides. He notes that Buckley is a powerful puncher who will keep coming forward, and that Covington's wrestling is ineffective off the back foot. Connor sees a high chance of a finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's paid dues, knockout power, takedown defense, and get-up game. He notes Buckley's wins over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque as proof he's ready for this step up. Vreeland is not concerned about Buckley's cardio, believing the move to welterweight has improved his conditioning. He acknowledges Colby Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts but thinks Buckley's athleticism and power will be the difference. Vreeland mentions the odds (-265) are a bit steep for a bet but stands by the pick.
Lucrative James picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's momentum, athleticism, and power versus Colby Covington's decline due to age, inactivity, and poor striking defense. He notes Buckley's recent knockouts over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque, and emphasizes that Covington has been rocked in past fights and is no longer the same fighter. He believes Buckley's volume and dynamic striking will overwhelm Covington, likely leading to a knockout.
Covington is tough to predict at this stage, especially after his flat performance against Leon Edwards. Buckley is expected to showcase some of those issues, but it's hard to have confidence in Buckley at chalk odds. If Covington shows up at 70% of his former self, he could overwhelm Buckley. The official prediction is Buckley by knockout, but Covington could be the value spot odds-wise.
Paul also picks Colby Covington, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He highlights Covington's durability, pressure, and ability to push a pace that Buckley hasn't faced in five rounds. Paul mentions he took late Colby finish props at long odds, seeing a path where Covington weathers early storms and takes over in championship rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, despite being a Colby Covington fan. He cites Buckley's physicality, lateral movement, and body work as key advantages. He notes that Covington is 36, coming off a long layoff, and took the fight on short notice. He believes Buckley's takedown defense and cardio are underrated, and predicts a body shot TKO in round two. He also mentions that Covington's linear style struggles against fighters who move laterally.
Zane picks Buckley because Covington is mentally broken after his knockout loss to Usman and subsequent decline. He notes that Buckley has the same high-volume pressure style but with more power and durability, and that Covington's apprehension makes him unable to impose his wrestling or striking. Zane believes Buckley will overwhelm Covington and likely finish him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 49 of 106 | 46% | 63 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 55 of 117 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 16 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 49 of 106 | 46% | 38 of 93 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 34 of 93 | 36% | 23 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 82 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 18 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.
Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.
Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.
The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.
Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.
Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 1 | 86 of 156 | 55% | 113 of 187 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 5:30 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 31 of 72 | 43% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 23 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 1 | 64 of 106 | 60% | 82 of 127 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 86 of 156 | 55% | 70 of 137 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 106 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 31 of 72 | 43% | 17 of 46 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 23 | 34% | 5 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 7 of 22 | 31% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 14 of 27 | 51% | 8 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 64 of 106 | 60% | 57 of 98 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 60 of 88 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 16 of 29 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-166), Ruziboev (+140)
Round 1
Ever since moving down to 170 pounds, the 5-foot-8 kickfighter Buckley (18-6, 8-4 UFC) has found a new lease on life, even if he tries to move up a more logjammed division with contenders waiting ages for title shots these days. Looking to crash that party will be Uzbekistan finisher Ruziboev (34-8-2, 2 NC; 2-0 UFC), who has shifted back and forth from welterweight and middleweight over the years. Knowing that one of these men may need smelling salts in the foreseeable future, referee Keith Peterson is ultra-prepped and ready for the nonsense-free proceedings. There is a stern staredown between the two that ultimately results in no touch of gloves. Buckley crowds his way forward to begin, and he backs away from a front kick that is aimed his direction. Buckley shifts to the left and right while trying to find his way in, and Ruziboev is warned for outstretched fingers. Ruziboev reaches with a right hand, and Buckley comes at him swinging. Ruziboev ducks away from a huge overhand left, and he tries to line up straight shots to intercept the shorter man coming in. Ruziboev misses another front kick, and he lets Buckley fly past him when Buckley is winging shots. The crowd starts chanting “USA,” and Buckley absorbs this energy and surges forward, where he takes a flush flying knee to the body and tackles Ruziboev to the ground. Buckley is wrapped up when landing on top, with Ruziboev hooking his arms around Buckley’s to hope for a stalemate that results in a standup. Buckley is pushed away, and he swings when Ruziboev fights back to his feet. Ruziboev returns fire and clips him, and Buckley retreats only to sprint forward and smash straight into Ruziboev’s chest to put him flat on his back. Buckley decides after landing a few strikes to stand back up, and Ruziboev follows him up. Buckley hops away from a front kick and scores a low kick, and his jabs as well out of range. Buckley keeps his guard up to block a high kick, and his blitz of a few looping strikes come up short. Buckley raises his hand in the air as he circles away, and he tells Ruziboev to fight him. Ruziboev motions to come get him, and Buckley answers as he leaps forward throwing wild hooks. Buckley spins with a back kick that is brushed off, and he walks off disappointed. Ruziboev runs at him and jumps with a flying knee, but Buckley is elsewhere as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley appears to have a fire lit in his belly as he starts the second round, as he races forward and releases a big kick early. Ruziboev retreats and measures Buckley with a right hand. Buckley resets and blazes forward, ripping Ruziboev off of his feet and tossing him down to the floor like a sack of potatoes. Ruziboev uses his offensive guard to kick Buckley off of him, and Buckley allows him to get back up. Ruziboev gets off a right hand that partially connects, and Buckley closes in and lands as body shot. Ruziboev trots forward with his arms outstretched, and he walks into a front kick to the sternum. Buckley chases Ruziboev around and shrugs off a right hand so he can unload with body shots. Buckley takes a flush knee and responds with a right hook that lands cleanly. Buckley is struck with another knee on the way in, and is still struggling to find the range. A side kick from “New Mansa” finds its target, and his guard is high enough to block a straight right hand from his foe. Ruziboev splits the guard with a front kick and hops away from winging hooks that whiz past him. Buckley starts pointing around the cage, and he tries to use this misdirection to charge in and crack his foe. He gets off a big right hand and wrenches Ruziboev down to the mat, slamming him down and landing in side control. Buckley puts a knee on the belly, and Ruziboev pulls him back to guard. Buckley rains down punches, and Ruziboev answers with an armbar that Buckley completely ignores. The round ends, Buckley helps his foe up and they embrace.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
Hands are clapped together to begin the final round. They use alternating jabs to still look for their respective distances, and Buckley leaps forward and pulls back before reaching the target. Buckley has a right hand glance off the target, and Ruziboev replies with a few body shots. Buckley eats a left hand and laughs it off so he can blast Ruziboev in the face with bombs. Buckley knocks Ruziboev off his feet down to his seat, where he moves to top position, and Ruziboev flails frantically with his legs and lands a few upkicks to get Buckley away. Buckley holds on the neck when Ruziboev sits up, and Ruziboev escapes and tries to land some shots. Buckley chases after him and connects with some punishing blows, and Ruziboev goes down again. Buckley leaps on top and begins an onslaught of ground-and-pound when he gets to mount, and he hammers Ruziboev with punches as Ruziboev’s face has been bloodied up. Ruziboev struggles to hang on and grabs the glove to protect himself, so Buckley frames off with his elbow and clobbers him with additional elbows. Ruziboev survives the assault somehow and sweeps the shorter man, and he ignores a triangle setup to move into the half guard so he can blast Buckley with his own offense. Buckley twists and turns, and he explodes to turn Ruziboev over and put him down again. Buckley sits up and jackhammers Ruziboev with right hands, and Peterson is watching closely as Ruziboev’s eye is busted up. Buckley unleashes with everything he has, and Ruziboev responds with several illegal upkicks that land on the spine and the back of the head. Peterson calls time to acknowledge the foul, and Buckley asks for them to be stood up. Ruziboev tries to offer a glove touch, and Buckley shrugs him off. Ruziboev loads up on a head kick, and Buckley walks him down and slugs him in the chops right to the final horn. This matchup somehow has gone the distance, although it is no question who will get their hand raised.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Nursulton Ruziboev via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his wrestling and grappling ability, as well as his power in his hands. He notes Ruziboev is a much larger fighter and a capable striker, but worries he might abandon his grappling for striking. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley's speed, power, and improved movement, but believes Ruziboev's wrestling could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round, calling it a shot in the dark. He notes that Buckley has been knocked out multiple times (by Holland, Curtis, etc.) and Ruziboev has a ton of power. However, he admits he still doesn't know much about Ruziboev, who has over 40 fights but mostly first-round finishes. He thinks Ruziboev's power might be the difference, and if he beats Buckley, he will gain hype.
Cody picks Buckley, noting that Ruziboev has a poor record at 170 lbs (7 of 8 losses at that weight) and tends to gas after the first round. He highlights Buckley's speed, cardio advantage, and ability to explode with big shots. Cody believes Buckley can survive an early onslaught and take over in later rounds, especially with the crowd behind him in St. Louis. He also notes that Ruziboev's takedown defense is suspect and Buckley could mix in wrestling.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley, noting that Buckley has experience against larger opponents and that Ruziboev's ceiling is likely top 30. He believes Buckley can extend the fight and find his range, and that Ruziboev struggles when he doesn't get an early finish. He also mentions the risk of a letdown spot for Buckley after a big win.
The host picks Buckley to win by knockout in rounds 2 or 3, citing his experience and fight IQ against a less tested opponent. He expects Buckley to mix in grappling and wear down Ruziboev before landing a big shot. He notes Ruziboev's size and reach but questions his weight cut and competition level. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges unknowns about Ruziboev.
Paul leans towards Ruziboev but is hesitant, citing his size and power advantage. He notes that Ruziboev has a 10-fight winning streak with all finishes in the first round, but his record at 170 is poor. Paul worries about the weight cut and cardio, as Ruziboev has not gone past the first round in years. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see how Ruziboev looks at 170. Paul acknowledges Buckley's improvements but thinks Ruziboev could be a 'merer' if he lands early.
The MMA Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev over Joaquin Buckley, noting Ruziboev's reach and rangy striking style. He believes Buckley's boxing-heavy approach will be neutralized by Ruziboev's length and uppercuts, and that Ruziboev's willingness to cheat (eye pokes) could be an advantage. He predicts a TKO win via uppercut as Buckley comes in.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 55 of 131 | 41% | 63 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 48 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 21 of 63 | 33% | 7 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 55 of 131 | 41% | 42 of 112 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 21 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 42 | 35% | 4 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 15 of 43 | 34% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 40 of 88 | 45% | 35 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luque (-112), Buckley (-108)
Round 1
Buckley and Luque engage, with referee Keith Peterson charged with keeping things clean, though the odds are against him, if the first 11 fights are any indication. Luque is orthodox, Buckley southpaw but switching stances constantly. They exchange low kicks in the early going, with Buckley landing a body kick as well. Luque sticks out the jab, trying to keep the shorter man from getting into punching range. Luque lands a leg kick, and Buckley answers with a pair of punches upstairs. Luque fires off another low kick, and Buckley responds with punches once again, which Luque does not appear to like. They both bounce into the pocket at the same time and Luque goes down, but it appears to be a combined slip and collision rather than a knockdown strike. Luque gets back up and goes on the offensive, backing Buckley up with punches. Luque shoots for a takedown at the 10-second clapper, but can’t finish before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley reaches out with long kicks to the leg and body. They exchange a flurry of punches at close range, most of which are blocked. Buckley jumps in with a knee that glances. Luque goes for a takedown but Buckley sprawls well. Buckley walks Luque down and lands a blistering pair of punches that have an effect despite landing on Luque’s arms. Buckley reaches out with a head kick that slaps off the high guard.
Luque shoots a slow double-leg, then pulls guard when Buckley pancakes it. Buckley fires off punches from half guard, some of which split Luque’s raised arms and do damage. Luque tries to get to a better position, but Buckley keeps firing away, and as Luque is not giving anything back and has gone completely into his shell, referee Peterson has seen enough, moving in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Vicente Luque R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.
Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.
Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.
The host picks Vicente Luque to win by KO in round two. He believes Buckley will get overconfident and throw wild hooks, while Luque will cover up and counter with hooks from his guard. He notes Luque's tight guard and ability to take a punch. He predicts Luque will crack Buckley on the chin and put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 40 of 141 | 28% | 54 of 161 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 68 of 176 | 38% | 77 of 186 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 14 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 17 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 40 of 90 | 44% | 45 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 40 of 141 | 28% | 29 of 122 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 37 of 133 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 68 of 176 | 38% | 41 of 134 | 24 of 36 | 3 of 6 | 55 of 141 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 10 of 41 | 24% | 6 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 52 | 28% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 13 of 56 | 23% | 9 of 49 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 40 of 90 | 44% | 25 of 71 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)
Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.
Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.
Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.
Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.
Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 26 of 89 | 29% | 27 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 51 | 43% | 14 of 42 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 26 of 89 | 29% | 12 of 66 | 9 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 19 | 42% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 10 of 36 | 27% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 16 of 53 | 30% | 6 of 37 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-225), Fialho (+190)
Round 1
A welterweight striker’s delight is about to be on display between the power-punching Fialho (16-6, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC) and furious finisher Buckley (15-6, 5-4 UFC). With 24 knockouts across their 31 pro wins, referee Kerry Hatley will need to bring his A-game to the party. Interested solely in trying to knock the other’s block off shortly, they do not share a glove touch. The offense is relatively muted for the first 30 seconds, until Buckley engages with a swift body kick. Buckley attempts a kick on the other side, and Fialho watches him closely without striking back. “New Mansa” skims the top of the head with his shin, and Fialho shakes it off and keeps his arm high to block it. The kicks keep coming from Buckley, and he darts forward with a looping right hand that Fialho turns his face to barely avoid. Buckley throws two punches and a kick, and he spins with a wheel kick. Buckley charges with another spinning kick, and Fialho finally attempts to counter with a check hook. Buckley runs at his foe, throwing fists, and Fialho sits down on his punches to respond. They trade fierce fists, and Fialho kicks Buckley in the head when Buckley is leaned over. The former middleweight eats it like a steak, and he walks forward to throw two booming hooks. Fialho backs him off with a jab, and he dodges a flying knee and a right hand to score a short left when Buckley lands. Buckley explodes into a takedown attempt, dumping the Portuguese fighter to the mat. Fialho is not on the ground for more than a second before climbing back up. Buckley spins without throwing anything, and he absorbs a loud body kick on the way out. Buckley gets tagged on the way forward, and he runs from one side of the cage to the other to deposit Fialho to the canvas. Once more, Fialho works his way up, and he is thrown to the mat right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Fialho loops a left hand around the guard and follows it with a body kick that bumps into the cup. Buckley immediately protests as the fight is paused by Hatley, and he takes about 25 seconds before going again. Fialho starts off again with a head kick, and he reaches his foe with a straight right hand. Buckley shakes it off and is tagged once again, and he rushes out with a barrage of inaccurate punches. The two trade punches, with Buckley ending the exchange with a right over the top. Buckley races in with a flying knee, and he wings a right hand and a left that bangs into the temple. Fialho appears no worse for wear, and Buckley kicks up to the same spot but it is blocked. Buckley, in a blitz, reaches Fialho and makes the Portuguese fighter bounce off the wall. Fialho gathers his bearings and lets off another body kick that hits the cup. Buckley shakes it a few times and they get back to trading. Fialho looks to time an advancing Buckley with a right hook, and Buckley attacks awkwardly without a lot of telegraphing to take advantage of. Fialho walks Buckley down with straight punches, but Buckley backs him away before long with a looping right hand and a spinning kick to the ribs. Buckley dances on the outside and sprints in, and he bangs his head into Fialho’s chin. Fialho takes a few seconds to clear his thoughts, and Buckley is on him.
Releasing a vicious head kick that slams square into the ear, Buckley knocks Fialho clean off his feet and down for the count. Fialho, grinning but barely clutching to his consciousness, succumbs to one follow-up right hand with Buckley lording over him that knocks him senseless. Hatley, who considered stopping the fight from the kick itself but waited an extra second, moves in to shove Buckley off of the downed Fialho when that last fist bashes into Fialho’s skull, with that blow arguably a late hit as Hatley had his hands on Buckley at the time.
There will be a question of whether Fialho should have taken some extra time after the clash of heads, but the head kick sealed the deal and then some. Buckley, in his victorious post-fight interview, maximizes his mic time by calling out the UFC sponsor of Prime and the Paul brother that runs it, telling them to sponsor athletes and not just the promotion itself.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Andre Fialho R2 4:15 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Buckley to win because he has wrestling if needed, better defense, and is faster and more athletic. However, he is wary of betting at -170 since both fighters have been knocked out recently. He suggests waiting for props, possibly 'does not go the distance' if the line is good.
Big Brady picks André Fialho as the underdog to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round. He notes both fighters have power and poor durability, but he likes Fialho's early-round danger. He also mentions Buckley is moving down to welterweight after five years, which could affect his performance. He expects a stand-up war and believes Fialho lands the big shot first.
Cody believes Buckley's power and athleticism will be too much for Fialho, who has questionable durability and cardio. He expects Buckley to knock Fialho out, possibly early. He notes Buckley's move to welterweight is a positive and that Fialho's striking defense is lacking.
Connor also picks Buckley, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights that Fialho's indecision and poor chin are major liabilities, and that Buckley's creative striking will cause problems. He notes that Fialho has moments of being a good fighter but is inconsistent, and that Buckley's ability to mix up his attacks will keep Fialho guessing. He also expresses doubt about Buckley's move to welterweight but thinks Fialho is not the fighter to exploit it.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley but notes he missed the better line. He believes Buckley is faster, has better volume, and that 170 lbs is the right weight class for him. He worries about Buckley's tendency to engage in pocket exchanges, where Fialho's power could be dangerous, but thinks if Buckley fights smart on the outside, he can out-volume Fialho. He calls it a 'pure pick' and says he's not interested in betting at -225.
The host picks Joaquin Buckley, expecting a knockout as Fialho fades in later rounds. He notes Buckley's technical boxing and high guard should allow him to crash the pocket and land cleaner punches. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop and predicts a round three TKO.
Paul agrees, noting that Buckley's move to welterweight is beneficial and that Fialho's durability is a concern. He mentions that Buckley can be methodical and that the fight could end early. He also likes the under on significant strikes for Buckley.
The MMA Guru sides with Joaquin Buckley, despite praising Fialho's activity. He worries about Fialho's chin and notes he took damage in recent fights without enough time to improve. He believes Buckley is more elusive and has a better chin, and that Fialho lacks one-shot KO power. He expects Buckley to win, possibly by KO, but acknowledges it could go either way if there's a finish.
Zane picks Buckley, noting that despite Buckley's predictable entries and history of getting knocked out, Fialho's inconsistency and poor chin make him vulnerable. He argues that Fialho's confidence breaks easily and he tends to become indecisive, while Buckley's creative combinations and willingness to trade will overwhelm him over time. He also mentions that Fialho has been staggered by relatively innocuous shots.
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Holland despite the high price, citing his length, reach, and athleticism. He notes Buckley's power but believes Holland's chin and ground game (if used) will be decisive. He predicts a third-round knockout for Holland.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win, stating that Holland is more skilled across the board, with better jiu-jitsu, length, and experience. He notes that Joaquin Buckley looks intimidating but is slower and not as skilled at the UFC level. Levi believes Holland can win however he wants as long as he doesn't get caught with a big shot.
Hacparast is a striker with power and good footwork, but his takedown defense is a question against Munoz's wrestling. Munoz has power and wrestling from Team Alpha Male, but as a UFC debutant, there's uncertainty. The under 2.5 rounds is appealing because both have finishing ability and the fight could become a slugfest. Hacparast likely wins by KO in the second round.
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