Career Averages - Mario Bautista
Career Averages - Benito Lopez
Mario Bautista
Benito Lopez
Mario Bautista - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)
Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 81 of 105 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 32 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 32 of 54 | 59% | 24 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mario Bautista | 20 of 54 | 37% | 6 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 9 of 28 | 32% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Mario Bautista | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.
Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.
The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.
Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.
This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 173 of 302 | 57% | 173 of 302 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 122 of 304 | 40% | 122 of 304 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 65 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 108 | 60% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 27 of 119 | 22% | 27 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 173 of 302 | 57% | 96 of 216 | 58 of 66 | 19 of 20 | 172 of 301 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 122 of 304 | 40% | 92 of 265 | 14 of 22 | 16 of 17 | 118 of 299 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 43 of 91 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 18 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 36 of 74 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 103 | 63% | 42 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 59 of 111 | 53% | 49 of 96 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 56 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 108 | 60% | 36 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 27 of 119 | 22% | 21 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.
Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.
Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.
Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.
Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 90 of 174 | 51% | 108 of 192 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 79 of 137 | 57% | 102 of 161 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 38 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 41 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 90 of 174 | 51% | 48 of 123 | 22 of 30 | 20 of 21 | 52 of 129 | 37 of 42 | 1 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 79 of 137 | 57% | 48 of 103 | 21 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 51 of 101 | 24 of 30 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 29 of 48 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 15 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 19 of 25 | 76% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 32 of 67 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 52 | 40% | 12 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 28 of 45 | 62% | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.
Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.
Benito Lopez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 49 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 49 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 44 of 67 | 65% | 20 of 41 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 13 | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Benito Lopez | 17 of 25 | 68% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 44 of 67 | 65% | 20 of 41 | 12 of 13 | 12 of 13 | 32 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 15 |
| Benito Lopez | 17 of 25 | 68% | 6 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Bautista, noting his high volume, forward pressure, and submission threat. He acknowledges Lopez's three-year layoff is a major concern, and while Lopez is wild and fun, that style can lead to takedowns and submissions. He says he tries not to bet on long layoff fights.
Big Brady notes Lopez's three-year layoff and questionable training, while Bautista is improving and training at MMA Lab. He expects Bautista to have better cardio and the ability to mix in takedowns. He predicts an exciting first round but Bautista will take over and submit Lopez in the second round.
Cody picks Mario Bautista, calling him a stud. He notes Bautista's wrestling, striking power, better footwork, and quicker hands compared to Lopez. He acknowledges Bautista's vulnerability when fights get dirty, as seen against Trevin Jones, but thinks he can stay at the outside and use leg kicks and combinations. He also notes Bautista's submission win over Brian Kelleher showed new wrinkles. Lopez has been inactive (3.5-year layoff) and has only two UFC fights since 2017, with questionable improvements. Cody is confident Bautista wins but finds the -290 price a bit trappy.
Connor picks Bautista, noting that Lopez is a pure brawler who relies on hooks and has poor clinch and wrestling. Bautista has options: he can brawl, clinch, or wrestle, and he lands harder shots. Lopez's layoff and tendency to get hit clean make him vulnerable to Bautista's more technical striking and grappling transitions.
Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista, having bet him at -225 for two units. He believes Bautista's activity, grit, and volume will overwhelm Benito Lopez, who is coming off a three-year layoff and has shown durability issues. He notes Lopez is live for a flashy finish but if that doesn't happen, Bautista will chip away and possibly get a finish of his own.
The host likes Bautista's overall game and believes he can grind Lopez on the ground. He notes Lopez's 3.5-year layoff and real estate career as concerns, but acknowledges Lopez's herky-jerky style could cause problems. He recommends using Bautista as a parlay piece and expects a finish inside the distance.
Paul picks Bautista, impressed by his performances outside the Trevin Jones fight. He notes Bautista's submission win over Kelleher showed improved grappling. He has no idea what to expect from Lopez after a three-year layoff and wasn't impressed by his past performances. Paul thinks Bautista could even get a submission, but the price on that prop (+600) is decent. He picks Bautista for the show.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, impressed by his last win over Brian Kelleher where he looked confident and crisp. He notes Bautista trains at MMA Lab and is 29, while Lopez returns after a two-year layoff. He predicts a first-round TKO, believing Bautista's recent form and confidence will overwhelm the rusty Lopez.
Zane favors Bautista because he is more than a brawler; he uses brawling as a transition to clinch and takedowns, while Lopez's brawl is the entire fight. Bautista is a more impactful puncher with better defense and exits exchanges with crisp shots. Lopez has a three-year layoff and tends to get wild when pressured, which plays into Bautista's hands.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 54 of 132 | 40% | 54 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vince Morales | 1 | 64 of 147 | 43% | 67 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vince Morales | 1 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vince Morales | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benito Lopez | 54 of 132 | 40% | 6 of 55 | 9 of 25 | 39 of 52 | 54 of 130 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 64 of 147 | 43% | 46 of 122 | 9 of 13 | 9 of 12 | 56 of 134 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benito Lopez | 16 of 37 | 43% | 2 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 11 of 14 | 16 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 16 of 38 | 42% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 | |
| 2 | Benito Lopez | 17 of 46 | 36% | 0 of 20 | 4 of 10 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 16 of 40 | 40% | 11 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Benito Lopez | 21 of 49 | 42% | 4 of 21 | 2 of 6 | 15 of 22 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vince Morales | 32 of 69 | 46% | 22 of 54 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 30 of 64 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lopez goes high with a kick early, but Morales is able to block it. Lopez is changing levels with his kicks in the initial exchanges. Lopez has landed several stinging low kicks thus far. Morales has not been able to get inside with his punching combinations as of yet. Lopez, meanwhile, continues to find success with kicks to the legs and body. Morales’ lead leg is already starting to redden as a result. A spinning back kick lands to the midsection for Lopez, who follows with another hard low kick. Out of nowhere, Morales drops Lopez with a massive overhand right. He dives into Lopez’s guard. Lopez seems to have recovered, and Morales allows his foe to stand. Morales lands a low kick of his own as time winds down. Lopez misses a flying knee as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-10
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Round 2
Lopez is going back to the well with low kicks early in the frame. Lopez flashes a jab and Morales charges forward with punches. Lopez backs Morales up and lands a jab to the body. Morales tags Lopez with a jab, and he shakes it off. Lopez lands an inside low kick and moves out of range. An overhand right lands for Morales, but it’s not as clean as the one in the opening frame. Morales counters a low kick with a nice punching combination. Morales again is able to get inside following a low kick and he lands several punches before Lopez circles away. A pair of outside low kicks land for Lopez. Morales pressures and makes Lopez stumble with a right hand. Lopez blocks a right hand from Morales. Lopez missing a spinning back kick just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Lopez
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopez
Round 3
Morales jabs to the body. Morales catches a kick and lands a combination. Lopez continues to work the leg kicks. A four-punch combination has Lopez on retreat, and Morales swarms. Lopez throws a flying knee. It doesn’t land but it backs up Morales. Morales swarms again with a punching combination, working the body and head effectively. Lopez spins his man around with a heavy low kick. Lopez with a snapping inside low kick. Morales blitzes behind his right hand and once again lands punches inside. Lopez answers with another low kick, and we’re at 2:00 to go. Morales connects with a one two, and moments later he tags Lopez with a combination while countering a low kick. Lopez comes right back with a hard low kick. Lopez lands another low kick. Morales finds the range on a jab. A right hand from Morales backs up Lopez.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (30-28 Morales)
Cole Shelton scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
The Official Result
Benito Lopez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Bermudez | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manny Bermudez | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Benito Lopez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manny Bermudez | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Benito Lopez | 7 of 10 | 70% | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benito Lopez | 0 | 78 of 198 | 39% | 109 of 252 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Albert Morales | 1 | 78 of 187 | 41% | 79 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 15 of 29 | 51% | 46 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Albert Morales | 1 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 29 of 82 | 35% | 29 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Albert Morales | 0 | 34 of 83 | 40% | 34 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Benito Lopez | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 34 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Albert Morales | 0 | 33 of 78 | 42% | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benito Lopez | 78 of 198 | 39% | 45 of 154 | 14 of 21 | 19 of 23 | 73 of 186 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Albert Morales | 78 of 187 | 41% | 55 of 144 | 15 of 31 | 8 of 12 | 74 of 180 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benito Lopez | 15 of 29 | 51% | 13 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Albert Morales | 11 of 26 | 42% | 9 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Benito Lopez | 29 of 82 | 35% | 15 of 65 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 28 of 79 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Albert Morales | 34 of 83 | 40% | 24 of 65 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Benito Lopez | 34 of 87 | 39% | 17 of 62 | 6 of 11 | 11 of 14 | 33 of 83 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Albert Morales | 33 of 78 | 42% | 22 of 57 | 5 of 12 | 6 of 9 | 31 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Bautista, noting his high volume, forward pressure, and submission threat. He acknowledges Lopez's three-year layoff is a major concern, and while Lopez is wild and fun, that style can lead to takedowns and submissions. He says he tries not to bet on long layoff fights.
Big Brady notes Lopez's three-year layoff and questionable training, while Bautista is improving and training at MMA Lab. He expects Bautista to have better cardio and the ability to mix in takedowns. He predicts an exciting first round but Bautista will take over and submit Lopez in the second round.
Cody picks Mario Bautista, calling him a stud. He notes Bautista's wrestling, striking power, better footwork, and quicker hands compared to Lopez. He acknowledges Bautista's vulnerability when fights get dirty, as seen against Trevin Jones, but thinks he can stay at the outside and use leg kicks and combinations. He also notes Bautista's submission win over Brian Kelleher showed new wrinkles. Lopez has been inactive (3.5-year layoff) and has only two UFC fights since 2017, with questionable improvements. Cody is confident Bautista wins but finds the -290 price a bit trappy.
Connor picks Bautista, noting that Lopez is a pure brawler who relies on hooks and has poor clinch and wrestling. Bautista has options: he can brawl, clinch, or wrestle, and he lands harder shots. Lopez's layoff and tendency to get hit clean make him vulnerable to Bautista's more technical striking and grappling transitions.
Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista, having bet him at -225 for two units. He believes Bautista's activity, grit, and volume will overwhelm Benito Lopez, who is coming off a three-year layoff and has shown durability issues. He notes Lopez is live for a flashy finish but if that doesn't happen, Bautista will chip away and possibly get a finish of his own.
The host likes Bautista's overall game and believes he can grind Lopez on the ground. He notes Lopez's 3.5-year layoff and real estate career as concerns, but acknowledges Lopez's herky-jerky style could cause problems. He recommends using Bautista as a parlay piece and expects a finish inside the distance.
Paul picks Bautista, impressed by his performances outside the Trevin Jones fight. He notes Bautista's submission win over Kelleher showed improved grappling. He has no idea what to expect from Lopez after a three-year layoff and wasn't impressed by his past performances. Paul thinks Bautista could even get a submission, but the price on that prop (+600) is decent. He picks Bautista for the show.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, impressed by his last win over Brian Kelleher where he looked confident and crisp. He notes Bautista trains at MMA Lab and is 29, while Lopez returns after a two-year layoff. He predicts a first-round TKO, believing Bautista's recent form and confidence will overwhelm the rusty Lopez.
Zane favors Bautista because he is more than a brawler; he uses brawling as a transition to clinch and takedowns, while Lopez's brawl is the entire fight. Bautista is a more impactful puncher with better defense and exits exchanges with crisp shots. Lopez has a three-year layoff and tends to get wild when pressured, which plays into Bautista's hands.
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