Career Averages - Neil Magny
Career Averages - Daniel Rodriguez
Neil Magny
Daniel Rodriguez
Neil Magny - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 13 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 9 of 19 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yaroslav Amosov | 9 of 19 | 47% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amosov (-400); Magny (+300)
Round 1
Your guess is as good as ours as to what the deal was today with this welterweight pairing. Once buried on the prelims, it now headlines them in open defiance of a rumor swirling that Magny was forced out of the fight. Still very much on the card, grizzled veteran and proud trap fight setter Magny (31-13, 23-12 UFC) may be the biggest underdog on the card despite being on his first win streak since 2022. The reason for the odds discrepancy is because he is facing once-beaten former Bellator king Amosov (28-1, 0-0 UFC), who had a de facto tune-up fight in March against Curtis Millender on the regionals before bouncing into the UFC. Grappling is likely about to be the name of the game for the next 15 minutes or fewer, and referee Herb Dean will oversee the proceedings. There is no sign of a glove touch between the two.
Magny leads the dance with a leg kick, and Amosov throws one back that is checked. Magny jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he dodges to avoid a looping counter. Magny sticks and moves, and he leans as a head kick grazes the side of his melon. Magny’s jab puts him too close to the wrestler, who grabs hold of him and tries to perform a double from behind. He chains it into a single, and Magny breaks out of it all and pops Amosov with a jab and a knee. They tie up, and Amosov looks for a short shot but takes a few more knees. The clinch leads to Amosov going for a single, and Magny falls to his back as Amosov establishes half guard. Amosov wraps his left arm around the head, possibly setting up an arm-triangle choke while simultaneously looking to pass guard with his legs. Magny controls his foe’s left arm to thwart a submission coming together, as well as a guard pass.
Amosov nails his foe with a short left, and he climbs up and over to grab hold of an anaconda choke while skipping straight past mount. The Ukrainian rolls through it to hold on in a nearly north-south posture, and the submission is now ironclad. Magny pushes off on his adversary’s ankle, arm and anything else he can grab hold of, hoping to get some space and save himself, to no avail.
Before he goes out on his shield, Magny taps out on Amosov’s posterior. Just like that, “Dynamo” has passed his first UFC test with flying colors, putting away a longtime veteran in just a couple minutes. On the microphone, Amosov introduces himself to his new company, saying “hi” to the other men at 170 pounds that he can dance with soon.
The Official Result
Yaroslav Amosov def. Neil Magny R1 3:14 via Submission (Anaconda Choke)
Cody picks Amosov, citing his elite takedown defense and striking. He acknowledges Magny's experience and cardio but thinks Amosov's skills will prevail. He expects Amosov to win the first two rounds and possibly finish.
Connor also picks Amosov, but notes that Amosov has cut back on his striking and become more grappling-focused, which could be a problem against certain opponents. However, he believes Magny is a good matchup for Amosov's style. He foresees a dominant win but warns that Amosov may struggle against fighters like Ian Garry who can stuff takedowns.
Lucrative James picks Yaroslav Amosov confidently, highlighting his elite wrestling and submission skills. He notes Neil Magny's history of being submitted and outgrappled, and believes Amosov will pass the 'Neil Magny test' with a submission. He projects Amosov as a -300 favorite.
Paul leans toward Magny as a live dog, citing too many question marks with Amosov's activity and motivation. He thinks Magny's experience and cardio could pay off if Amosov fades, but is not confident enough to lay the price. He suggests live betting Magny.
Zane picks Amosov confidently, predicting a dominant grappling performance. He notes that Magny is bad off his back and that Amosov's wrestling and top pressure will be too much. He compares it to Magny's losses against strong wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and RDA. He expects Amosov to get a takedown early and transition to a submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 28 of 54 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 1 | 4:43 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 73 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Neil Magny | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 27 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Matthews | 18 of 44 | 40% | 11 of 36 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 31 of 57 | 54% | 28 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Matthews | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 18 of 32 | 56% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jake Matthews | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Neil Magny | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jake Matthews | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 6 of 11 | 54% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Matthews (-475); Magny (+350)
Round 1
Two of the most experienced welterweights in the company wage battle as the main card rolls on, with betting lines a lot wider than most would expect. A substantial favorite of -400 or above, the younger Matthews (22-7, 15-7 UFC) is on his first three-fight win streak in five years. On the other side of the coin, the 38-year-old Magny (30-13, 23-12 UFC) has dropped two of three, all knockouts. The respectful gentlemen will not likely need any refs to keep things clean, but they nevertheless will be joined by referee Jim Perdios. A cordial fist bump is exchanged.
The two swat at one another early with single distant strikes, and Matthews have wider arcs on them but are less accurate. Magny bounces off the cage wall to let go with a low kick, and he is knocked back from a right hand. Magny recovers and flicks out his jab, and he takes a strong calf kick that gives him pause. Magny’s jab bounces off the forehead, and he pushes off the face and his finger grazes the eye. Perdios tells them to be careful, and they carry on.
Matthews chips at the front leg, and Magny spurs into action with a long flurry of punches that largely miss the mark. “The Haitian Sensation” goes after a takedown, and Matthews stops it in its tracks and backs Magny off with a clubbing right hand. Matthews digs a left to the liver and two rights to the head, and he lets Magny unload on him so he can counter back. Magny stays behind his jab, and when Matthews closes in, Magny ties him up. Matthews gets free, and Magny shoots in deep for a double. Matthews tries to defend with a guillotine on the way down, and Magny fights the hand to alleviate the pressure. Magny cannot fight off the choke, and Matthews rolls him over to full mount with one arm holding tight. Matthews squeezes with all his weight, and Magny relaxes and his right arm starts to fall to the side. Perdios waves the fight off right at the bell for a technical submission while saying, “he’s out,” and Magny immediately shouts “No” several times as he stands back up to declare that he is not out. Despite that Perdios called off the fight, he goes back on his decision and says that the fight is still on and that the round is over. This is extremely confusing, as Perdios came into contact with the fighters a moment before the horn sounded, so by definition it should go down as a tech sub or possibly a no contest due to a premature stoppage. Magny catches a serious break here, and he goes back to his corner mad as can be.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 2
We have reached Round 2 despite the stoppage-non-stoppage. Magny appears fine again, and Matthews lays into him with early offense. The punches and elbows from Matthews lead to a takedown from him, and he drags the grizzled veteran to the floor. From there, Matthews starts to impose his grappling game, comfortably shifting from position to position. “The Celtic Kid” relocates himself into a mounted triangle, with Perdios watching on closely. Magny hangs on tight, not giving up even in a bad, bad way. Magny manages to break out of the sub, but he still finds himself on his back absorbing strikes when not dealing with a submission attempt, setup or trap. Matthews softens up the midsection and moves to half guard, and he hunts for an arm-triangle choke at the same time. The dueling actions allow Magny to get out of the choke and wrap up his opponent. Matthews rides out the remainder of the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Matthews
Round 3
The elder statesman presses the action to start the final round, and he strikes his way into a trip attempt. Matthews remains upright without issue, and he pushes Magny back to reset. Magny tackles his man to the canvas, and Matthews clings to a guillotine choke like before. With the choke in, Matthews uses his feet to walk across the cage wall and flip himself over, but Magny frees himself before getting mounted. Both stand up, and Magny knees the Aussie in the body a few times. Magny presses Matthews down to knee him in the face in the clinch, and he does work with body shots. Matthews busts out of the clinch and retreats, and Magny chases after him and hurts him with a combination of punches. Magny strikes his way into securing a takedown, and he steps into full mount. Matthews scrambles and turns over to get Magny off of him, and he counters with a single as Magny stands up. Magny lifts Matthews up during a takedown and was going to perform a pro wrestling move but spiking is illegal so he thinks twice.
Using his long arms, Magny laces them beneath Matthews’ armpits and under the throat with a surprise brabo choke. Matthews does not panic, even though he has taken some shots and may be fading. As Magny exerts heavy chest pressure with the choke tight as a drum, Matthews has no way out. Before long, he taps out, and Magny has staged the incredible comeback that would only be shocking if it was not Neil “Expletive Deleted” Magny.
Think back to Magny vs. Hector Lombard, or when he snared Daniel Rodriguez in a choke. For the latter, that was the last time Magny landed a submission—and it was a brabo choke then, too. The victor walks back to his corner grinning from ear to ear, even as the crowd does not like it. The story on this match may not be done here, depending on if there is an official review or appeal of the actions in the first round. For the time being, Magny has done it again, pulling off a third-round victory after taking a beating. Matthews is the first fighter repping Oceania tonight to come up short, with their record currently 7-1 with three more to go tonight.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Jake Matthews R3 3:08 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Jake Matthews, the biggest favorite on the card, citing his well-rounded skills and high level of competition. He believes Matthews will avoid Magny's clinch game and use takedowns and busy hands to win. He notes that Magny struggles against younger, faster fighters and that Matthews is not stupid enough to engage in a clinch battle.
Big Brady picks Jake Matthews to win by second-round submission. He believes Matthews has finally put it together and is well-rounded with good boxing, wrestling, and BJJ. He thinks Magny is on the decline and has been submitted in six of his UFC losses.
Cody picks Matthews, noting he has finally become consistent and is putting his skills together. He believes Matthews is a better striker than Magny now and can defend takedowns, forcing a striking match where Matthews should outland Magny. He also cites the hometown advantage and Magny's recent struggles against leg kicks and younger fighters.
Connor also picks Matthews, agreeing that Magny's jab-dependent pressure game has faded. He notes that Magny's recent wins have come against opponents who fell apart, and that Matthews's improved combination punching and wrestling could exploit Magny's vulnerabilities. Connor is cautious because Matthews has a history of reverting to a bad back-foot boxing style, but he thinks Matthews's recent performances show he has moved past that.
James picks Jake Matthews confidently, stating he is better everywhere—striking, wrestling, and power. He notes Matthews is in his prime at 31 and on the best run of his career, while Magny is an aging veteran with a poor ground game. He expects Matthews to take Magny down at will and possibly finish, but predicts a clear decision (30-27 or 29-28) as most likely.
James confidently picks Jake Matthews, noting he is the biggest favorite on the card. He predicts a finish, possibly by arm triangle, as Magny is older and has been finished recently. He believes Matthews is in his prime and should win easily.
The host expects Matthews to take a grapple-heavy approach like his last fight. He acknowledges Magny could have an advantage if the fight goes into deeper water, but thinks Matthews will do enough in the first 10-12 minutes to win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Jake Matthews, believing his well-rounded game and experience against long fighters like Neil Magny will pay off. He notes Matthews' recent submission win and thinks he can replicate that success. He predicts a TKO via low kicks and follow-up shots, calling it a coming-out party.
Zane picks Matthews, citing his recent improvements in combination punching and assertiveness. He notes that Magny looks vulnerable on the feet now and has lost his ability to put pressure with his jab. Zane thinks Matthews's wrestling and willingness to mix it up could be key, as Magny has historically struggled against wrestlers. He acknowledges that Matthews's past struggles are a concern, but believes the current version of Matthews is better.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 42 of 67 | 62% | 80 of 113 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 20 of 42 | 47% | 42 of 69 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 25 of 31 | 80% | 51 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 42 of 67 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 19 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 20 of 42 | 47% | 5 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 13 | 17 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 17 of 36 | 47% | 13 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 18 of 36 | 50% | 5 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 11 | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 25 of 31 | 80% | 25 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 21 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Connor picks Zaleski, noting that Magny has looked increasingly hurtable and gun-shy, while Zaleski still has power and violence in his game. He acknowledges both fighters may be declining, but Zaleski's underlying physicality and scrambling ability give him the edge. Connor doubts Magny can replicate his past comeback wins.
Zane also picks Zaleski, pointing out that Magny's recent performances show a decline in output and durability. He notes that Zaleski has historically struggled against rangy strikers, but Magny's current form may not pose that threat. Zane believes Zaleski's wrestling and scrambling will be too much for Magny to handle.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)
Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.
Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.
Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.
Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.
Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 1 | 34 of 40 | 85% | 39 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Neil Magny | 1 | 34 of 40 | 85% | 39 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 34 of 40 | 85% | 30 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Morales | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Neil Magny | 34 of 40 | 85% | 30 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 30 of 35 |
Angelo picks Michael Morales confidently, calling himself a 'big Michael Morales guy.' He highlights Morales' national championships in freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai, his fantastic footwork, and his clean takedowns. He believes Morales is better than Magny everywhere and will win with accurate striking and takedowns. He notes Magny's age and recent comeback win but thinks Morales is the superior fighter.
Cody picks Morales because he is a young, talented prospect with a judo background and power. He thinks Morales will outwork Magny and possibly get a finish. He notes that Magny has looked slow and flat-footed in recent fights and has been outworked by lesser fighters. He believes Morales' cardio is good and he won't fade like some prospects.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Michael Morales, arguing that Morales thrives in the clinch where Magny often beats opponents. He notes Morales' improving hands and wrestling background, and believes he will beat Magny at his own game and possibly get a finish.
Brevin picks Magny as a big underdog, citing his experience against top competition, his size and reach advantage, and his grappling edge. He thinks Morales is overhyped and will get fraud-checked. He notes Magny is a gatekeeper who often wins these matchups. JP disagrees, picking Morales, calling Magny a 40-year-old gatekeeper who goes to decision and has shown his ceiling. JP thinks Morales is better and younger.
Paul takes a small shot on Magny at +600 because he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Morales has looked good but has dropped rounds and hasn't faced a veteran like Magny. He thinks Magny's cardio and clinch work could give Morales problems if the fight goes deep. He admits Morales likely wins but the price is worth a small bet.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Morales because he believes Neil Magny is past his prime at 37 and does not check low kicks. He notes Morales is young (25), talented, and has good wins over Jake Matthews and Max Griffin. He expects Morales to attack the low kicks and stuff takedowns, winning on the feet.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 57 of 102 | 55% | 110 of 159 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 45 of 67 | 67% | 100 of 128 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 6:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 67 of 79 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 46 of 62 | 74% | 80 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Mike Malott | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 13 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 57 of 102 | 55% | 52 of 95 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 44 of 56 |
| Mike Malott | 45 of 67 | 67% | 19 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 23 | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 20 of 31 | 64% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 17 | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 6 of 15 | 40% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Malott | 21 of 30 | 70% | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 46 of 62 | 74% | 44 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 56 |
| Mike Malott | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Malott (-340), Magny (+270)
Round 1
With Malott looking to show he is a Top 15 fighter, and Magny aiming to prove that he can do more than man the velvet rope for that category even at age 36, only one is likely to get his wish. Kevin Macdonald is the referee. Both fighters are in orthodox stance, and Malott lands a front kick to Magny’s lead leg immediately. Magny comes forward behind a high guard and Malott goes back to the lead leg with another push kick. Moments later, he hits Magny with a calf kick to that leg, then another. A strategy appears to be emerging. Malott steps in behind an overhand right, and Magny meets him, grabbing a clinch. Malott immediately shoves him off. Malott surges forward with a pair of big looping hooks. They fall short but succeed in backing Magny straight to the fence. Malott throws a lightning-fast head kick, but Magny just as quickly steps inside and takes the clinch again. Malott drives Magny to the fence and pummels his way out of the position, moving away from the cage and forcing Magny to follow. Malott goes back to the leg kicks, all aimed at the lead left leg of Magny. Malott is now getting Magny to bite on hip feints, indicating the effect the kicks have had so far. Malott lands a glancing low kick at the 10-second clapper, the last offense of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 2
Magny throws a low kick to open the round, which Malott checks. Magny stalks forward and Malott gives ground, then plants and catches Magny with a clean two-punch combination that stings. Malott lands an inside kick to the lead leg, followed by a body kick on the other side. Magny comes crashing forward, but Malott uses a body lock to take him down, landing in full guard. Magny works to create some space to escape, but Malott more or less lets him up. Malott closes the distance again and uses a body lock and trip to dump the taller man to the floor at the base of the fence. Malott is in a sort of loose half guard, hovering over Magny, and when he dives in with an elbow strike, Magny locks down his right leg. Malott gets a few shots in from half guard, then stands over Magny. Magny throws a upkick and Malott jumps right back onto him, moving to mount. Magny spins to put his feet against the fence, looking to use the cage to bridge and escape, but Malott scoots him away from the cage and stays in mount, throwing methodical, heavy elbows and forearms. Malott isolates Magny’s left arm, perhaps considering a submission, but at the 10-second clapper gives up on it and throws strikes until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Malott
Round 3
Malott throws a leg kick and backs Magny up with punches, then changes levels and more or less bowls him over for a fast takedown, landing in mount. Magny wraps his arms around Malott, keeping him from posturing up and doing major damage, then bucks and returns to his feet. Malott follows him across the cage and launches himself at his hips, scoring another easy takedown. Magny gets to full guard, then grapevines the legs, trying to keep Malott from going anywhere. Malott throws some short strikes before standing up out of guard and dives back in, but ends up in full guard again. Magny stands and Malott grabs a guillotine, pulling guard as he does, but Magny pops his head out and ends up on top, where he starts throwing punches with some urgency. Malott is suddenly looking exhausted and Magny is all over him. Malott turns to his side, but otherwise offers no real defense as Magny continues throwing a stream of unblocked punches with both hands. There’s less than 30 seconds left. Referee Macdonald is looking on closely, and as motivated as he might be to avoid any possibility of a quick stoppage, after at least two dozen unanswered blows, he interposes himself for the TKO with just 15 seconds left on the clock. What a comeback by the ageless, indefatigable Neil Magny.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Mike Malott R3 4:45 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Malott, viewing this as a showcase for the Canadian prospect. He acknowledges Magny's experience and toughness but notes Magny has looked declining in recent fights. He warns against overexposure on Malott since this is his toughest opponent, but plans to have some action on him.
Big Brady is very confident in Malott, calling it a setup fight. He notes Malott is dangerous everywhere with 100% finish rate, while Magny is 36, has taken damage, and has been submitted six times. He expects Malott to get a takedown and submit Magny in the first round.
Cody is confident Malott wins, citing his size, strength, power, and well-rounded skills. He notes Malott's quick finishes but acknowledges Magny's durability and cardio. He suggests Malott by decision as a prop because Magny is tough to finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mike Malott to win but is hesitant due to Malott's unproven ceiling and Magny's veteran tactics. He acknowledges Malott's dangerous finishing ability and guillotine series, but worries about Magny's clinch game and length. He notes Magny has been fading but has also been a tough fade historically. He passes on betting the -400 line.
Vreeland picks Magny as a dog, citing the massive step up in competition for Malott. He notes Magny's size, reach advantage, and ability to impose his game plan. Vreeland questions Malott's path to victory, doubting he can outwrestle Magny or overcome the reach disadvantage on the feet. He sees value in the plus money.
Fox also picks Magny, agreeing with Vreeland on the step up in competition. He notes Magny's reach advantage and good wrestling defense. Fox doesn't see a clear path for Malott, as Magny is a tall fighter who knows how to use his reach. He likes the dog money.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Magny vs Malott.
I fully expect Malott to play with Magny on the feet, eventually drag the fight to the ground, and strangle him with a submission. Malott's grappling advantage is huge, and Magny has historically struggled against strong grapplers. The -365 line is a bit wide for a prospect against a veteran, but I think the fight will look like a cakewalk for Malott. I'm looking for a first-round submission.
Paul agrees Malott wins but won't bet the -400 moneyline. He thinks Malott has the power and grappling advantage but Magny is durable and has gone the distance with top guys. He considers Malott by decision as a possible prop.
The MMA Guru picks Mike Malott, citing Magny's age and recent KO loss to Ian Garry. He trusts Malott's pressure and leg kicks, and predicts a submission via arm triangle in round two. He also mentions Magny's personal issues (custody battle) as a potential distraction.
Daniel Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 82 of 173 | 47% | 111 of 207 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 111 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 82 of 173 | 47% | 53 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 25 | 60 of 137 | 17 of 27 | 5 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 77 of 149 | 51% | 49 of 106 | 13 of 26 | 15 of 17 | 54 of 107 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 40 of 83 | 48% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 39 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 29 of 60 | 48% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 31 of 55 | 56% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 27 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 25 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)
Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.
Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.
Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.
The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-122), Rodriguez (+102)
Round 1
A couple of welterweight action merchants draw feature bout duty at UFC Des Moines, as “The Argentine Dagger” and “D-Rod” prepare to slug it out. The third man in the Octagon, charged with possibly protecting one or both of these battle-hardened 38-year-olds from their own toughness, is Kevin Macdonald. Ponzinibbio sets up in orthodox, Rodriguez southpaw, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches as they nearly collide in the first seconds. A minute in, neither man has landed anything solid, but Rodriguez plants his feet and catches the advancing Ponzinibbio with a nice jab to the body. Scattered “whoos” can be heard as the two remain deliberate and tactical through the first half of Round 1. Ponzinibbio connects with a hard body kick that has “D-Rod” reacting visibly. Rodriguez stalks forward again and Ponzinibbio meets him with another body kick, this one a front kick to the midsection. Ponzinibbio steps forward and tries another kick, but slips on the attempt and Rodriguez pounces, clocking him with a left hand to the jaw that staggers him. Ponzinibbio retreats, trying to regain his wits, as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez lands a couple more good punches, but Ponzinibbio recovers before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Ponzinibbio appears to be back in possession of his faculties as they engage to open Round 2, but Rodriguez is clearly loading up his left hand, hoping to go back to that well at some point. Ponzinibbio lands a solid right to the chin, which Rodriguez eats, returning fire with a left cross. Whether because of the Round 1 slip or for some other reason, Ponzinibbio is not nearly as aggressive with his kicks through the first two minutes of the round. Left to relying on his boxing, he is getting the worse of most of the exchanges. Ponzinibbio steps in and misses just short with a big right hand, then comes back with another one that glances off the chin. Rodriguez’s movements are looking a bit labored halfway through the round. Ponzinibbio closes the distance and shoots for a takedown. Rodriguez ends up with his back against the fence, where Ponzinibbio cannot complete the takedown. They move off the fence and Ponzinibbio shoots again, this time bringing “D-Rod” to the canvas. The 10-second clapper sounds as they hit the floor, and the horn sounds before either man can put in any significant work.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Given the close nature of Round 2, it might be anyone’s fight for the taking on the judges’ scorecards, and Ponzinibbio strikes first with an overhand right. Rodriguez continues to breathe with his mouth open, but he is far from done, wading into the pocket and connecting with a left cross.
Rodriguez hits Ponzinibbio with a body kick, then a few seconds later, crushes him with a four-punch combination, finishing with a left hook that puts his foe down. Referee Macdonald, in perfect position to see Ponzinibbio’s eyes, recognizes that “The Argentine Dagger” is done and jumps in for the save as Rodriguez pounces to put in the coffin nails.
Ponzinibbio gets up and protests the stoppage, but his case is undermined by the fact that he goes stumbling across the cage and runs chest-first into the fence. Fantastic finish by Daniel Rodriguez, just at the point that the momentum of the fight appeared to be turning.
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 1:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 123 of 257 | 47% | 126 of 260 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 74 of 257 | 28% | 91 of 276 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 44 of 99 | 44% | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 23 of 91 | 25% | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 54 of 102 | 52% | 57 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 20 of 85 | 23% | 37 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 123 of 257 | 47% | 44 of 153 | 56 of 80 | 23 of 24 | 117 of 251 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 74 of 257 | 28% | 58 of 228 | 9 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 74 of 256 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 25 of 56 | 44% | 7 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 31 of 81 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 44 of 99 | 44% | 19 of 65 | 18 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 23 of 91 | 25% | 20 of 83 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 54 of 102 | 52% | 18 of 56 | 27 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 20 of 85 | 23% | 18 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-198), Morono (+164)
Round 1
Action is on the menu with this welterweight main card opener. Recent middleweight Rodriguez (17-5, 7-4 UFC) realized after his last outing that he is better suited for 170 pounds, and Morono (24-10, 1 NC; 13-7, 1 NC UFC) will serve as a more-than-willing dance partner. Referee Herb Dean will have his hands full as long as this one goes, and the fighters elect not to touch ‘em up. Morono stays on the outside chipping with low kicks, and Rodriguez marches forward looking for left hands. Morono loads up with a right, and he gets Rodriguez’ attention and is forced to parry a response. Morono reaches out with two punches, and he catches Rodriguez ducking in to score a right. The Texan keeps moving, absorbing a low kick and firing off a right over the top. Rodriguez eats a pair of punches when coming forward, and he shines up Morono’s right eye with a counter. Morono pursues a high kick, and he chambers and fires a right hand on the counter. Morono backs Rodriguez up with another right, and they trade kicks. Morono’s head kick comes up short, and Rodriguez tries and fail to land his own. Morono bounces his way in and out to attack, not absorbing much back from “D-Rod.” Morono lets off a right hand, and he gets clipped on the way turning himself around after spinning for a back fist. Morono sits down on a thudding right hand that forces Rodriguez to blink it out, and Rodriguez escapes and pushes out a jab to the belly. Morono absorbs a flush body kick and throws back with three punches up top. Morono jabs, flicks out a low kick and releases a trio of fists high. Rodriguez snaps the head back with a sharp jab, and he gets knocked back a few steps from a winging right hand. Morono keeps him guessing with a wide variety of strikes, but his short right hands do as well as anything he puts out. Morono whiffs on another high kick, and he slips a punch to fire off a haymaker that misses by a whisker. Morono kicks low and is met with a pair of heavy punches, and Rodriguez smiles. They trade low kicks, and Morono connects with three big overhand rights. Rodriguez wears them well, blocks a spin and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Round 2
The welterweight strikers pick up where they left off, trading blows without fear. Rodriguez fight behind his jab, and Morono looks for counters. One heavy right sends Rodriguez careening back, and Rodriguez gathers his thoughts and wades forward to re-engage. Morono takes a right hook on the chin and reloads to slug it out with Rodriguez. A right from Morono glides off the shiny head of his opponent, and Rodriguez keeps jabbing away. Morono’s face is marked up from the jabs, and he jumps forward with a Superman punch that misses the mark. Rodriguez jabs the body with his foot, and Morono meets him with a step-in right hand. Morono puts a jab on Rodriguez’s face when Rodriguez resets, and he scores a right over the top. Rodriguez fires off a high kick, and Morono comes up short on another Superman punch. Morono jabs his way into a right hand, and his subsequent haymaker bounces off the guard. When Morono slings another, it gets through. Rodriguez barely flinches when taking it flush, and he retaliates with counters on counters. Rodriguez lines up a body kick and swats his way into action, only to walk face-first into a home run punch. Rodriguez again does not waver as he takes the power strike cleanly, and Morono strings three more together over the top before getting out. Morono ducks a jab and releases a right hand, and Rodriguez’ jaw hangs open slightly as if it sustained some damage. Rodriguez’ job stays busy, and he uses it to cut off the looping striker. Morono still gets off a thudding right hand, and he goes to the body with a kick and follows with a right hook. Rodriguez scores to back Morono off, and Morono rushes back at him throwing fire. Rodriguez goes after a one-two to the body, and the two trade furiously until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The two men are ready and willing to get after it as soon as Dean calls for them to begin. Morono cracks Rodriguez with an effective right hand at the end of a flurry, and Rodriguez calms himself down and pushes out with a front kick and one to the lead leg. Morono chambers and fires a big right hand that partially connects, and he gets knocked back from a short left. Rodriguez follows with a hard left, and Morono staggers back to get his bearings. Instead of shelling up, Morono steels himself and comes out swinging even harder than before. The wild attacks of “The Great White” catch Rodriguez a few times, and Rodriguez’ speed is making a difference as he tends to land first. Morono catches a kick and pushes his man back, but he lets it go instead of pursuing a takedown. Morono jabs his way into an overhand right, and as Rodriguez responds, Morono bombs back. Rodriguez pokes out a leg kick and slides back from a salvo of fists, and he kicks the lead leg again and leans back from the massive counter. Rodriguez sticks Morono a few times with his piston-like left, giving Morono something to think about each time. Morono loads up with his right hand from down by his hip, and Rodriguez absorbs it cleanly and pecks at his foe with a clean right. Morono spins his way in with a back fist, and Rodriguez ducks it and tags him with a left. Rodriguez pushes the Texan against the fence, kneeing him a few times in the midsection while stifling Morono’s trip attempts. Rodriguez digs a few punches to the body on the break, and he sits down on counters with Morono bearing down on him. Rodriguez snipes him with a short right, and he slips back when Morono sells out on fastballs. Morono walks his foe down but cannot corner him or land cleanly, with Rodriguez playing defense until he ducks a spinning back fist and hurls Morono to the floor. Morono explodes back upright, and the horn blares to call an end to what should be a close one, depending on how the second round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Morono)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Alex Morono via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.
Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.
Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.
Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.
Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 112 of 238 | 47% | 123 of 250 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 127 of 265 | 47% | 132 of 273 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 44 of 93 | 47% | 45 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 46 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 39 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 39 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 112 of 238 | 47% | 77 of 193 | 14 of 20 | 21 of 25 | 105 of 226 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 127 of 265 | 47% | 82 of 214 | 36 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 127 of 265 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 44 of 93 | 47% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 46 of 91 | 50% | 25 of 67 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 46 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 86 | 43% | 27 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 53 of 113 | 46% | 38 of 97 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 31 of 59 | 52% | 23 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 28 of 61 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)
Round 1
What was scheduled to be a welterweight feature now takes place at 185 pounds, thanks to the reliably unreliable Gastelum reminding us all why the UFC forced him up a weight class in the first place. Rich Mitchell is the third man in the cage. They set up in orthodox stance and immediately get to work boxing. Gastelum comes forward, with Rodriguez throwing his jab and giving ground. Neither man lands solidly in the frenetic opening moments, but Gastelum gets his hands on Rodriguez and shoves him to the cage, with a possible clash of noggins taking place along the way. Rodriguez breaks the clinch quickly and they return to the middle of the cage. Gastelum bounces into range with overhands and right crosses that come up just short of Rodriguez’s chin, while “D-Rod” returns fire with his own jab. Rodriguez goes southpaw, and a moment later Gastelum clocks him with an overhand left, his best shot of the round so far. Half the round is gone, and Rodriguez is still working to keep Gastelum on the end of his punches. Gastelum crashes the pocket and tags Rodriguez with a left-right combo before Rodriguez can slip out the side. Rodriguez spins Gastelum’s head with a left hook-right cross combination, but Gastelum shakes it off and keeps moving forward. Gastelum reaches out and hits the body. Gastelum backs Rodriguez into the fence and nails him with several more punches right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Round 2
Gastelum surges forward again, throwing punches in pairs, and just barely slips a murderous counter from Rodriguez. They exchange combinations in the center of the cage, some of which glance, but plenty connect for both men. Rodriguez stops Gastelum’s forward movement with a jab to the body. Gastelum walks Rodriguez into the fence, but “D-Rod” circles away before he can do any work there. Gastelum changes levels and plows Rodriguez to the canvas with ease. Gastelum sets up shop at the base of the fence from top position, but Rodriguez stands quickly and they separate. Both men are in southpaw stance now, boxing at close range. Rodriguez catches Gastelum cleanly with a three-piece, but Gastelum shakes it off and returns fire. Gastelum lands a calf kick that makes Rodriguez stumble. Rodriguez tags Gastelum with a long righty jab, and Gastelum punishes him with another low kick. Rodriguez catches Gastelum with a clean one-two at the 10-second clapper. Gastelum secures a takedown right at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Gastelum once again comes out as if shot from a cannon, throwing his jab and one-two. Rodriguez is ready for them, but Gastelum’s first calf kick of the round stumbles him. Rodriguez seems to have no answer for those kicks, limited only by Gastelum’s sparing use of them. Gastelum changes levels for a possible takedown, but gives up on it almost immediately. They’re back to boxing at middle-to-close range, both men getting their licks in. Gastelum breaks things up by shooting for a double-leg near the fence, hoisting and depositing Rodriguez on the canvas. Gastelum moves quickly to side control and starts grinding his elbow into Rodriguez’s face, keeping his weight squarely on Rodriguez’s chest. “D-Rod” regains one-quarter guard, slipping one butterfly hook in between them. He gets half guard, and Gastelum stands out of his guard, raining down a couple of punches before letting Rodriguez return to his feet. Gastelum promptly drops for another takedown, which he gets with ease. He is on top, throwing short strikes from top position, when the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Rodriguez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
The Official Result
Kelvin Gastelum def. Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.
Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.
Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.
JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.
Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-285), Rodriguez (+240)
Round 1
A place in the top 10 at 170 pounds may loom for the victor of this “featured fight of the night.” After suffering his first career stoppage loss from the hands of Neil Magny, Rodriguez (17-3, 7-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to smash up unbeaten Garry (11-0, 4-0 UFC) and his shiny undefeated record. A thrilling clash is sure to play out for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Dan Miragliotta may have his hands full with these two strikers. They do opt to touch gloves before getting after it, and Rodriguez pushes the pace and walks right into a body kick. Rodriguez pushes out a solid jab, and he springs back and forth, energetic with active movement. Garry gets off his own jab, and Rodriguez gives chase and throws a big overhand right. Garry slides out of the way and scores a high leg kick. Garry lands a left, and Rodriguez stands firm and clubs him with a counter. The two trade vicious leather, and Rodriguez reels and backs off to find a better way in. When Rodriguez advances, Garry kicks him in the ribs, and he eats a pair of jabs when looking to close the distance. Rodriguez kicks low and ties him up, but he breaks off as he would prefer to trade hands. Garry scores at the end of a three-punch salvo, and Rodriguez bounces forward and shucks off a body kick while missing a hook. Garry slaps him in the face with the instep of his foot, and he knocks Rodriguez back to the wall while chants of “Ole Ole Ole” rain down in the building. Rodriguez swings and misses with a pair of big punches, and he connects with a chopping inside calf kick.
Garry boots Rodriguez upside the head, and as Rodriguez backpedals, Garry chases after him and bowls him over. “The Future” reintroduces himself to the downed Rodriguez with several huge punches, and Rodriguez turns to his knees and appears to be out of it. Garry strategically finishes the job with one final onslaught of punches, as Rodriguez rolls to his side with nothing left to offer. Miragliotta intervenes when he determines that Rodriguez is no longer intelligently defending himself
, and Garry has just passed a massive test with flying colors. The Irishman becomes the first fighter to ever finish the durable, dangerous “D-Rod,” doing so in the first round without taking much damage. Garry climbs to the top of the cage and encourages the crowd to roar, having likely claimed a spot in the top 15 with his dynamite performance.
The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Daniel Rodriguez R1 2:57 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez with low confidence, calling him a great striker especially when not worried about takedowns. He notes Ian Garry is hittable and keeps his head straight up. He says Rodriguez will be the best striker Garry has faced and that Garry may not recover from being tagged like he did against Kanaan. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady thinks this fight is closer than the odds suggest. He notes Garry's striking defense is a liability, citing past fights where he got hit clean. Brady believes Rodriguez has the durability and volume to make it competitive, and expects a 15-minute striking fight that goes to decision. He picks the dog Rodriguez to pull off the upset, but acknowledges the UFC likely wants Garry to win and corrupt judges may favor him. He calls laying -300 on Garry 'whack'.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a value underdog, despite low confidence. He notes Rodriguez's experience and volume, but acknowledges Garry's speed and potential. He thinks Rodriguez could expose Garry's defensive flaws, but is not confident enough to bet heavily. He calls it a 'value pick' and places it at the bottom of his confidence list.
Connor picks Garry, emphasizing his fast start and ability to build momentum. He notes that Garry's low kicks will be a problem for Rodriguez, who hasn't faced good kickers. He thinks Rodriguez will have moments and may hurt Garry, but Garry's consistency and movement will earn him the win. He also mentions Garry's jab and straight punches as key tools.
Daniel Levi picks Ian Machado Garry, praising his confidence, striking volume, and well-rounded game. He notes that Garry has landed over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights and has knockdowns in three of his four UFC bouts. Levi believes Garry's speed and reach will be key, as Rodriguez does not have a reach or height advantage. He acknowledges Garry was dropped in his last fight but attributes that to facing a heavy hitter in Song Kenan, and notes that Rodriguez has also been dropped. Levi sees Garry winning a competitive fight, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Rodriguez.
Garry is the better striker, using distance, kicks, and a one-two down the pipe to pick apart Rodriguez. He is 11 years younger and trains at Kill Cliff FC. He may also look to take the fight to the ground to avoid Rodriguez's power. The fight will resemble Garry's win over Gabe Green, with Garry landing more consistently and winning by decision. Rodriguez is a tough test but Garry's youth and skill should prevail.
Paul picks Garry, noting his reach, technique, and cardio. He expects a close decision win for Garry, as Rodriguez doesn't have the skill set to expose him. He mentions adding Garry to a parlay at -250 but not a big play. He doubts Rodriguez's wrestling and believes Garry's speed and lateral movement will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Machado Garry, highlighting his diverse striking and leg kicks. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a boxing-heavy fighter who stands heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He believes Garry will overwhelm Rodriguez with a variety of attacks and predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Garry, citing his speed, footwork, and exceptional low kicking. He notes that Rodriguez is slow and has poor leg defense, and Garry's ability to build offense over time will be key. He acknowledges Rodriguez's counter-punching and durability but thinks Garry's consistency and volume will win out. He also mentions Garry's jab and low kicks as major advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 57 of 109 | 52% | 106 of 169 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 71 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 38 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 57 of 109 | 52% | 38 of 85 | 16 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 108 | 61% | 36 of 76 | 15 of 17 | 15 of 15 | 63 of 103 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 22 of 39 | 56% | 14 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 27 of 52 | 51% | 18 of 41 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 53 | 66% | 25 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 50 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 8 of 18 | 44% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magny (-115), Rodriguez (-105)
Round 1
The first bout on the card featuring ranked fighters will come in the UFC’s welterweight division, as perennial contender Magny (26-9, 19-8 UFC) looks to show that he is too much for Rodriguez (17-2, 7-1 UFC). As it will likely be discussed before every one of his matches until he achieves the feat, Magny is one win away from his 20th at 170 pounds, which would break a tie with all-time great Georges St. Pierre. The two 35-year-olds will battle it out in front of referee Herb Dean, and they do not wish to touch gloves. Magny holds his left arm out to keep Rodriguez away, and he pushes out a front kick. Rodriguez sits down on a left hand that knocks Magny back to the wall, but Magny bounces off and replies with a high kick that gets blocked. The two fighters trade leg kicks, and Rodriguez leaps forward with a right hand and a left to the body. Rodriguez connects with a right to the head and left to the body again, and Magny grimaces and responds with a looping punch. Rodriguez continues striking the midsection, and Magny clinches him up to slow down the body work. Rodriguez breaks free and scores a low kick, but a Magny jab has busted up the nose of “D-Rod.” Magny ties his foe up again, and Rodriguez once more fights out of it. Magny checks a kick and barely blocks a left hand in time, but he does drive Magny back to the wall again with a left hand to the liver. Magny ignores a low kick to fire off one that glances off the shoulder, and he times a Rodriguez leg kick to connect with a one-two. Magny does this same exact approach again, and as he tries to slug it out with Rodriguez, Rodriguez catches him with a clean punch that dislodges Magny’s mouthpiece. He replaces his gumshield and gets back to it, and Rodriguez bullies him back to the cage and starts nailing him with punches. Magny lets him advance into a tie-up, and he threatens with a standing arm-triangle choke before dragging Rodriguez down to the mat. Rodriguez grabs the fence in order to stand back up to his feet, and Magny holds on from behind before tripping “D-Rod” out again. Magny softens Rodriguez up with a few punches before sneaking an arm around the chin, but he elects to step over and partially take the back. Rodriguez explodes back up, and Magny lifts him up and exerts heavy pressure before slamming an elbow on the side of the head. Rodriguez breaks free with seconds to spare, and he sprints at Magny and drills him with a few punches right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle for the second stanza, and Magny sticks out a front kick to the body to reintroduce himself. Rodriguez lines up a left hand down the pipe, and Magny replies with a head kick that slams into the guard and shakes up Rodriguez. “D-Rod” marches Magny down after gathering his thoughts, and he backs Magny to the wall and connects with a clean left hand. Magny uses his reach in the hands and feet to back Rodriguez off, but Rodriguez bullies his way in with a left to the body and another to the head. Rodriguez pressures “The Haitian Sensation” with effective and powerful blows, and Magny tries to keep enough space and strike at his preferred range. Magny bursts forward with three punches that get Rodriguez’ respect, but Rodriguez comes out swinging and makes Magny rush away. The body shots from Rodriguez, especially his left hand, are adding up, and Magny reacts visibly when they land on him. Magny returns fire with front kicks, and he tries to intercept Rodriguez with a knee, but Rodriguez sees it zooming at him and sways to the side. Magny pushes the pace briefly, and he ends a short combo with a push kick to the body. Magny chains a few punches together, and Rodriguez pushes off the fence and advances. Rodriguez gives his foe a powerful shove to make Magny trip over himself, and he closes in to get clinched up. Rodriguez breaks the grip with another push, and he splits the guard with a sharp jab. Magny looks for a Thai clinch to knee the body, and Rodriguez continuously marches forward and smashes Magny in the face with a left hand. Magny’s chin holds together despite the power coming his way, and he uses tie-ups to slow the downhill-rolling Rodriguez. Magny hunts for a standing rear-naked choke at the end of the round, but he cannot get past Rodriguez’ hands before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The third round begins, and Rodriguez tries to pick up where he left off with power punches. Magny responds with two front kicks, and Rodriguez is right back in his face with looping punches. Magny leaps at him with a jump knee, and Rodriguez ricochets off the wall and swings back with a vengeance. A huge left hand staggers Magny, and Rodriguez follows up with another to put “The Haitian Sensation” on baby deer legs. Magny ends up pulling guard just to stop the figurative bleeding, and Rodriguez is fine with this so that he can land a few punches from on top. Magny takes the time he needs to defend well enough and clear himself, and Rodriguez backs off and takes an upkick to the chest. Magny stands up, and he pressures forward to pursue a takedown and wrench “D-Rod” down to the floor. Magny gets one hook in as he slugs Rodriguez in the face, and he steps into mount while Rodriguez is seated against the wall. Magny wraps up the legs and scores a few punches, but he shines when Rodriguez stands and Magny slams him back down hard. Magny slithers both hooks in, but he falls off the top and Rodriguez slides out the back.
Magny lets Rodriguez stand up so that he can wrap up a guillotine choke, and as Rodriguez falls to his back, Magny transitions straight into an anaconda choke. Magny adjusts his grip and switches the arm position to latch on a brabo choke, and Rodriguez might not have enough in the tank to get out of it. Magny squeezes with all his might, and his iron grip coupled with his superior energy reserves force “D-Rod” to tap out for the first time in his career.
Magny has done it, digging deep to pull off the victory, and he registers his 20th as a welterweight to pass "GSP" as the winningest in divisional history.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Daniel Rodriguez R3 3:33 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Magny, citing his well-roundedness and the many factors against Rodriguez: a close fight many thought he lost, a quick turnaround, and a staph infection that prevented training. He notes Magny is more well-rounded overall and expects him to get it done.
Big Brady favors Rodriguez's striking speed and volume, expecting him to stuff Magny's takedowns and keep the fight at range. He notes concerns about Rodriguez's recent injury and weight cut but believes he will win a decision. He sees Magny's path to victory as a grinding fight, but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Daniel Rodriguez to edge a close competitive decision. He notes that Magny relies heavily on wrestling and controlling opponents against the cage, but at 35, his takedown success is declining, as seen against Max Griffin (1 for 8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has good takedown defense and pops back up quickly, as shown against Jingliang and Kevin Lee. Rodriguez also has superior volume, landing high significant strikes in his fights, while Magny's output is lower because he focuses on grappling. In the Apex, the acoustics favor the volume striker, so Rodriguez should win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez, noting he bet him at +100 for two units. He believes Rodriguez has crisper, more meaningful strikes and that Magny may be on the decline, citing the Max Griffin fight where Magny was dropped and the Shavkat fight where he had no success. He warns that Rodriguez must avoid being lulled into Magny's clinch-heavy game, but thinks Rodriguez's cardio and boxing give him the edge.
The host likes Magny's pace, pressure, and cardio, believing he can outwork Rodriguez. He notes Magny's win over Jeff Neal (a better striker) as a positive indicator. He expects Magny to use dirty clinch, kicks, and volume to win a decision, and sees value on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Magny's jabs are often not counted as significant strikes, so his total strikes may be misleading. He points out that judges are rewarding bigger, cleaner shots over volume of jabs, which favors Rodriguez. He also questions whether Magny can dominate the grappling, as he has struggled against better grapplers. Paul picks d-rod for the same reasons.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, believing Magny's prime is past due to injuries and recent performances. He notes Rodriguez has underrated takedown defense and will outbox Magny, who relies on straight punches. He predicts a KO in round two, citing Magny's loss to Max Griffin and Rodriguez's full camp advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 78 of 175 | 44% | 78 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 88 of 185 | 47% | 89 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 78 of 175 | 44% | 25 of 103 | 23 of 34 | 30 of 38 | 78 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 88 of 185 | 47% | 54 of 140 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 22 | 88 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 54 | 50% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 20 of 40 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 24 of 59 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 16 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 62 | 43% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 79 | 43% | 25 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On a little over a day’s notice, these next three fights will all feature fighters facing different opponents than they trained for. This mix-and-match round robin begins at 180 pounds, with welterweight Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) battling it out against a man that weighed in 10 pounds heavier than him. Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC) planned on fighting at 180 pounds, so on paper he should have a significant weight advantage. Keeping things on the up-and-up is referee Mark Smith, and the fighters gladly touch gloves to start things off. Rodriguez tries to reach his opponent with a lunging right jab, and Li looks for a check hook on the way in but cannot land it. Rodriguez ducks back when a low kick sweeps at him, and he charges with two punches that knock the Chinese fighter back to the wall. Li targets another body kick, and Rodriguez cracks him with a left hand. They measure one another with their alternating hands, and the pace wanes as they appear to be concerned with one another’s power. Li kicks the body, and he dodges a response of the same variety. Rodriguez peppers the jab and walks into a right hand, but he pays it no mind and resets on the outside. Li kicks with both legs to the inside and outside of the leg, and Rodriguez keeps flicking out his sharp jab. Li throws a punch that bounces off the top of the cup and follows with one to the head, and Rodriguez ignores it and takes a flush body kick. Li works the ribcage with several body, and Rodriguez responds with a head kick that lands about as cleanly as one can, but Li does not even budge. Li instead swarms him with punches, and Rodriguez retreats and attacks the calf with his shin. Li leaps forward with a pair of punches, and Rodriguez shoulder rolls both of them and finds himself evading a secondary burst of blows aimed his way. Two kicks go unanswered from Li, and they clash shins when kicking at the same time. When Li fires off a kick to the side and lazily brings his leg back, Rodriguez times the opportunity to belt him with a pair of stunning hooks. Li shakes out the cobwebs and catches a low kick. As holds one leg up, he kicks the other, sweeping Rodriguez out and chasing him to smack him in the face with a right hand. Li backs off before Rodriguez can unload on him, and he gives ground and starts moving his arms around strangely. One last kick from “The Leech” connects before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 2
Fists are bumped to begin the second stanza, and Rodriguez skips forward with a chopping calf kick. Li gives him one back, and he bull-rushes forward with punches and backpedals to start showboating. Rodriguez does not make him pay for the posturing, only scoring a few swiping right hands that do not land flush. Rodriguez sticks out a jab, and they trade leg kicks on the inside. When Li charges in recklessly, Rodriguez quickly intercepts him with a short left. The jab for Rodriguez is working effectively, and Li is getting more wild and throwing heavier with wider arcs. Rodriguez sees them coming and sticks the jab in Li’s face repeatedly. Li sits down on an inside leg kick, and he gets backed off from a punch to the chest. Rodriguez connects with a solid kick on the inner thigh, and he aims another to the same spot. Rodriguez checks a kick and sticks his hands out, but Li swats them away. They grade these tit-for-tat strikes one after the other, as if taking turns to compete. Rodriguez turns up the pace briefly with a series of jabs, and he pulls back when Li winds up with a big left hand. Rodriguez dodges several winging punches, and the crowd begins to boo the two fighters for their swings and misses. Both men get off heavy leg kicks, and they come up short with their fists. When Li attempts a Superman punch, Rodriguez catches him with a quick right hook in the way forward, and Li changes his mind about any subsequent shots. Rodriguez scores a left, and Li responds with a booming shot that knocks Rodriguez and appears to hurt him. “The Leech” grins and lets Rodriguez off the hook instead of giving chase, and Rodriguez backs him up to the wall with low kicks and jabs. The American batters the lead leg with kicks, and he goes up high with a kick. Li throws him to the mat, but before he can take advantage, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 3
The gloves are touched to lead off the final period, and Rodriguez advances but does not throw much. Li counters him with a straight right, and they go punch for punch and kick for kick in a slow but methodical pace. Li charges, swinging hammers, and Rodriguez backs him off with jabs and checks a leg kick. Li throws bombs, and Rodriguez slips them and comes forward. Li attempts to catch a kick, and he lets go before anything comes from it. Li peppers his man with leg kicks, and he scores a left hand on the ear. Li slaps Rodriguez as the crowd voices its disapproval, and this prompts a brief exchange of fists. Rodriguez takes anything on the chin and venomously retaliates, and Li ricochets off the fencing. Li ducks a hook and swings wide, with exciting near-misses from both men. Rodriguez splits the guard repeatedly with jabs, and he uses them to shut down the biggest blows from his opponent. The leg kicks come from both men, but it is only Rodriguez who checks them. Li ducks down and wings a huge right hand, and Rodriguez guards it just in the nick of time. Rodriguez slips and counters, and he keeps his jab in Li’s face one after the next. Li targets the body with a straight right, but it is one-and-done as Rodriguez marks him up with jabs. Rodriguez follows one jab with a left hand, and Li does not react well to it. Li backs off, his volume diminishing, but Rodriguez is unable to find his chin with anything of merit. Li sits down on a right hand, Rodriguez throws back with a vengeance. The slow-paced match comes to a merciful close after 15 minutes, but these two deserve all the props – and Li more than anyone else tonight – for taking this difficult opponent switch in stride.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Jingliang Li via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.
Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.
Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.
Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.
The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Magny, citing his well-roundedness and the many factors against Rodriguez: a close fight many thought he lost, a quick turnaround, and a staph infection that prevented training. He notes Magny is more well-rounded overall and expects him to get it done.
Big Brady favors Rodriguez's striking speed and volume, expecting him to stuff Magny's takedowns and keep the fight at range. He notes concerns about Rodriguez's recent injury and weight cut but believes he will win a decision. He sees Magny's path to victory as a grinding fight, but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Daniel Rodriguez to edge a close competitive decision. He notes that Magny relies heavily on wrestling and controlling opponents against the cage, but at 35, his takedown success is declining, as seen against Max Griffin (1 for 8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has good takedown defense and pops back up quickly, as shown against Jingliang and Kevin Lee. Rodriguez also has superior volume, landing high significant strikes in his fights, while Magny's output is lower because he focuses on grappling. In the Apex, the acoustics favor the volume striker, so Rodriguez should win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez, noting he bet him at +100 for two units. He believes Rodriguez has crisper, more meaningful strikes and that Magny may be on the decline, citing the Max Griffin fight where Magny was dropped and the Shavkat fight where he had no success. He warns that Rodriguez must avoid being lulled into Magny's clinch-heavy game, but thinks Rodriguez's cardio and boxing give him the edge.
The host likes Magny's pace, pressure, and cardio, believing he can outwork Rodriguez. He notes Magny's win over Jeff Neal (a better striker) as a positive indicator. He expects Magny to use dirty clinch, kicks, and volume to win a decision, and sees value on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Magny's jabs are often not counted as significant strikes, so his total strikes may be misleading. He points out that judges are rewarding bigger, cleaner shots over volume of jabs, which favors Rodriguez. He also questions whether Magny can dominate the grappling, as he has struggled against better grapplers. Paul picks d-rod for the same reasons.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, believing Magny's prime is past due to injuries and recent performances. He notes Rodriguez has underrated takedown defense and will outbox Magny, who relies on straight punches. He predicts a KO in round two, citing Magny's loss to Max Griffin and Rodriguez's full camp advantage.
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