Career Averages - Mario Bautista
Career Averages - Jay Perrin
Mario Bautista
Jay Perrin
Mario Bautista - Fight History
AJ thinks Sandhagen most likely wins by decision, noting that Sandhagen decision at +190 makes sense. He acknowledges the possibility of a submission again but leans toward a decision win. He mentions the fight is expected to go over 2.5 rounds and that the distance is likely.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen by decision, highlighting his elite long-range striking, footwork, and improved wrestling. He believes Sandhagen's precision and ability to create space will neutralize Bautista's pressure and clinch game. He expects a hard-fought three-round fight with Sandhagen doing more damage and avoiding takedowns.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision, citing his crafty striking, dynamic weapons, and superior submission grappling. He believes Sandhagen's footwork and distance management will give Bautista trouble, and that Bautista's volume-based style won't be enough to outwork Sandhagen. AJ also notes that Sandhagen has fought better competition and has a clear edge in the grappling exchanges.
AJ picks Sandhagen by decision in a competitive three-round affair, noting Bautista is tough but Sandhagen is too much. He wishes it were five rounds.
AJ picks Cory Sandhagen to win a decision in a competitive fight with Mario Bautista. He mentions Sandhagen by decision at plus 180 as a prop, indicating he sees it as a likely outcome but not a finish.
AJ leans toward Cory Sandhagen, believing his getup game is superior and that he won't be on his back long. He thinks Sandhagen will mix it up striking and take two out of three rounds. AJ also mentions the fight going over 2.5 rounds.
Angelo picks Mario Bautista because he believes Bautista is the better overall wrestler with incredible scrambles, and has leveled up significantly since their first fight. He notes that Sandhagen's losses are to wrestlers and Bautista is the better wrestler. He thinks Bautista will wrestle and control the fight, and that Sandhagen's striking advantage may not be enough.
Angelo thinks Mario has improved more than Cory over the years, becoming the cleaner boxer and better wrestler. He notes Cory's awkwardness could trouble Mario but believes Mario's scrambles and overall evolution give him the edge. He placed a quarter unit on Mario at +125.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by split decision. He acknowledges Sandhagen's striking advantage but notes Bautista's improved grappling and Sandhagen's poor takedown defense. He thinks Bautista can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He calls it an extremely close fight and doesn't have a strong read.
Big Brady passes on this fight entirely. He acknowledges Bautista as a live dog but lacks confidence to bet, expecting a close decision that could go to the judges. He does not make a pick.
Big Brady does not have a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a close, high-level bantamweight fight that he doesn't plan to bet on. He notes Sandhagen has better volume and tools on the feet, while Bautista has more power and can win minutes in the clinch and on the mat. He expects a split decision and sees value on Bautista at plus money, but is not committing.
Cody picks Cory Sandhagen, highlighting his superior striking, scrambling ability, and takedown defense. He notes Sandhagen's success against elite wrestlers like Umar Nurmagomedov and Moraes, and believes Bautista's wrestling is not at that level. He expects Sandhagen to edge out a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Mario Bautista to upset Cory Sandhagen, citing Sandhagen's tendency to choke in big fights and his recent title fight loss. He notes that Bautista is hungry, coming off a career-best performance, and has a competitive history with Sandhagen. Levi expects a close fight that could go either way, but leans toward the underdog.
Jacob picks Cory Sandhagen because he believes the fight will be mostly striking and Sandhagen rarely loses striking matches. He notes that Sandhagen is more active and lands more strikes, and that Bautista's wrestling may not be enough to overcome Sandhagen's movement and volume. He thinks Sandhagen will outpoint Bautista to a decision win.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista via decision, citing Bautista's improved boxing, cage control, and career trajectory. He sees it as a 50/50 fight but favors Bautista as the underdog due to Sandhagen's recent chin issues and Bautista's superior training environment at MMA Lab. He notes Sandhagen's slight edge in kicks and submissions but believes Bautista's advantages in close rounds will be decisive.
The host acknowledges Sandhagen won the first meeting via first-round armbar in 2019, but expects Bautista's improvements and physical confidence to help him muzzle Sandhagen, push him against the cage, and edge out a decision.
The host believes Bautista's improvements in physicality, defensive grappling, and clinch work will allow him to make the fight ugly and grind out a decision win. He thinks Bautista can replicate the style he used against Aldo to neutralize Sandhagen's unorthodox striking.
Paul picks Sandhagen but is torn, acknowledging both fighters have improved. He sees Sandhagen's volume as the key but respects Bautista's growth. He prefers to watch live and possibly bet in-play.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista to win. He is frustrated with Cory Sandhagen, calling him a nerd and stating he is done with him. He believes Bautista will mix in grappling and be the aggressor, which will sway judges. He notes that Sandhagen often lets fights get away from him when the opponent is the lead.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-185); Oliveira (+155)
Round 1
All eyes are on this bantamweight main attraction, with the UFC’s No. 9 Bautista (16-3, 10-3 UFC) putting his superior number on the line against the surging 11th-ranked Oliveira (23-3, 4-0 UFC). Whether a top-10 fighter is cemented or elevated, referee Herb Dean is on top of everything. He brings them together to the center of the cage, where the fighters calmly touch gloves.
Oliveira starts off with a front kick up the middle, only to be met with a body kick flying back. Oliveira chops at the front leg, working the calf a few times and dropping his hands to motion to someone outside the cage. Bautista swings and misses, allowing Oliveira to grab hold of him and clinch. Oh no. Here we go again. Oliveira presses heavily on the MMA Lab representative, thwarting Bautista’s initial escape attempts. Bautista manages to free himself from the grasp, but Oliveira is quick to re-engage with an attempt. They fall to the floor during a grappling exchange, and Oliveira is quicker on his feet and isolates Bautista’s right leg for a single. Bautista keeps his balance and slaps Oliveira upside the head a few times, and they spin around one another as Bautista follows through to drag the fight down and establish top control.
Oliveira hits his back and hunts for a leglock, and Bautista defends by twisting all the way around and climbing into half guard. The action slows to a crawl as Bautista smothers on top, with Oliveira locking him down with his arms hooked around his foe’s. When Bautista tries to posture up, Oliveira kicks him off. Bautista just misses with a leaping right hand, and he has an axe kick blocked. Bautista tries to move himself back into the guard, and Oliveira’s upkicks keep him honest. Bautista manages to score with a few punches to the body, but otherwise he stays out of harm until the buzzer.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Bautista starts the round aggressively, taking the fight to the ground early. Oliveira climbs back up thanks in part to snagging his fingers in the fence, and he is admonished for it and hurled back down to the mat by the American. A mat return soon follows when Oliveira scoots upright. Bautista cannot keep him down, and when he backs off to find an angle back in, he walks into a left hand but still scores a right. Oliveira appears lackadaisical and sloppy, his hands by his waist as he prepares to defend another takedown shot. Oliveira lunges behind an inaccurate right, and Bautista corners him against the cage and goes to take him down.
Oliveira manages to get him down instead by catching a kick, only for Bautista to reverse him and wind up in the position the ended the previous round. The Brazilian’s upkicks are less hostile than before, so Bautista is able to get into his guard and transition fairly quickly to half guard. Oliveira still slowly manages to frame off the chest, recovering back to the full guard and closing it. Bautista opens it up with a few elbows, slashing them down and pushing through to half guard, the side and eventually a crucifix. Bautista jams down a number of elbows and thumping punches, and he switches things up with a sudden, unexpected kimura.
He cranks that submission in order to brilliantly take the back of his adversary, and he slips both hooks in and wraps up a rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. The fight went from zero to 60 in a hurry, and Oliveira is in big, big trouble. After barely a second or two, Oliveira realizes his goose is cooked and frantically taps out before he goes out.
Just like that, Bautista has notched his first stoppage since 2023 and rebounds from a loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a huge way. The victor lauds coach John Crouch for his grappling and jitz training to be able to pull off that thrilling grappling sequence that is best shown in slow-motion. The MMA Lab rep calls for a rematch with Cory Sandhagen when on the microphone, and that is one worth watching that could easily headline a Fight Night card. If that transpires, sign us up. Also, Sherdog will be in the building at UFC Houston in two weeks, so be sure to tune into our extra live coverage throughout the week. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Vinicius Oliveira R2 4:46 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 81 of 105 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 32 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 32 of 54 | 59% | 24 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mario Bautista | 20 of 54 | 37% | 6 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 9 of 28 | 32% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Mario Bautista | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-535), Bautista (+400)
Round 1
Fresh off his first career loss—a decision to champ Merab Dvalishvili—Nurmagomedov (18-1, 6-1 UFC) may not have the unbeaten shine of his brother Usman or cousin Khabib any longer, but at 29 years of age he still should have plenty left to give. He looks for a bounce-back performance against Bautista (16-2, 10-2 UFC), a tricky MMA Lab export that has already played spoiler to two recent high-profile adversaries in Jose Aldo and Patrick Mix. Can the wiry bantamweight pull off yet another upset? Referee Jason Herzog will be there for it every step of the way, including the initial fist bump.
Bautista bounces in and out, and he delivers an introductory body kick that lands with a concussive thud. Nurmagomedov snatches the limb out of the air and wrangles the MMA Lab fighter to the mat. Bautista scrambles to work his way up, and Nurmagomedov violently mat returns him. Bautista flips over to grip hold of the Russian’s left ankle, and he uses it as a possible toe hold-slash-ankle lock to crank it as hard as he can. Nurmagomedov toughs out the submission and keeps moving, preventing his foot from getting locked up or ripped off, and he establishes himself in side control. Nurmagomedov settles himself down and works on Bautista with short left hands, and Bautista’s scramble is active as can be. Nurmagomedov wraps his arm around the back of the head to keep Bautista on the floor, bowling him back over with his shoulder.
Bautista stays busy moving, bucking and shifting, and Nurmagomedov deftly stifles it all and imposes his will. The massive betting favorite shimmies over to get to the side, and he racks Bautista up with an elbow that forces an immediate change of position. Bautista bucks all the way to get to his knees and stand, and Nurmagomedov clings to him from behind with the body triangle affixed to fully control the Arizona native. Nurmagomedov works with his free right hand to soften Bautista up on the side of his melon, and he hand-fights to get his right arm free to set something up. Nurmagomedov readjusts his body lock around the waist, and Bautista turns his trunk towards the fence so he takes away the choking leverage of his adversary. Nurmagomedov happily maintains control and bops Bautista any time he can until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Round 2
The fighters touch ‘em up and start kicking at one another. Bautista times a picture-perfect knee while Nurmagomedov is ducking, and he sends the Russian crashing to the canvas. Nurmagomedov blinks it out and goes after a takedown. Bautista backs him off and times a body shot, but Nurmagomedov is a man possessed and secures the takedown he was seeking before. The once-beaten fighter positions himself in half guard while wrapping his arms around the side of his opponent’s head, and Bautista willingly gives up his back so he can try to escape. Like before, Nurmagomedov snatches up back control and the body triangle. Bautista fights to one side and makes Nurmagomedov adjust to the other with his legs, so the MMA Lab product quickly twists to the other to roll to his knees. Nurmagomedov follows him, arms still wrapped around Bautista from behind, and Bautista scrambles and hits a brilliant switch to put Nurmagomedov on his seat.
Bautista stands back, lets Nurmagomedov stand up and wings a big right hand. Nurmagomedov counters with his own right hook, so Bautista walks him down and shoots for a takedown. They clack heads together when Bautista was aiming for a shoulder strike, and Nurmagomedov follows through and puts the underdog flat on his back. Nurmagomedov easily climbs over to side control, using his shoulder to press on Bautista’s face. Nurmagomedov follows a turning Bautista to secure his back, but Bautista still manages to get all the way around and back to his feet. With 35 seconds to go in the round, Nurmagomedov boots his man in the stomach. Bautista sticks out a jab and is countered, but he fires back and stuns the Russian for a moment. Nurmagomedov kicks him upside the head, and Bautista responds with a pair of body kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The touch of gloves is a swift one, as Bautista senses the scores could be tied or he could be down on the scorecards, and he answers the bell accordingly. Racing right at the Russian with punches, he sets up a head kick that just misses. Nurmagomedov races a left hand at him, but it is his follow-up head kick that gets Bautista’s attention even though it only partially connects. Bautista delivers a body kick, and Nurmagomedov fires back with two low kicks and a couple punches up top. The bantamweights bang their heads together again when advancing, and Nurmagomedov recovers just the quicker and pursues a level change. Bautista defends until he gets taken down, and he muscles his way back up with the wall at his side. Nurmagomedov goes for the takedown from behind, allowing Bautista to turn so he can knee him in the stomach. Nurmagomedov isolates a single and puts the MMA Lab fighter on the canvas, but only for a second before Bautista is upright once more.
The midpoint of the round is reached, and Bautista scores a pair of punches and is met with a brisk takedown that sweeps him off his feet. Nurmagomedov cannot control him on the mat, so he settles for pushing the Arizonan against the wall. Bautista rolls all the way through to escape, only for Nurmagomedov to smother him on the canvas and keep him grounded. Nurmagomedov knees his man in the side and steps over to three-quarter mount, so Bautista twists himself about. Nurmagomedov chains submissions and mat returns when able, and Bautista fights valiantly and nobly but is still being controlled with the grappling game of the Russian. Nurmagomedov goes for a single, and he runs Bautista from one end of the wall to the other to drive him back down. Official takedown numbers may be high even if control time is not nearly as substantial as it was in the previous match involving the heavyweights, and Bautista is fighting with all his might to free himself. With 13 seconds to go, he does, and he proceeds to bang it out with the Russian with swinging fists and looping high kicks. Nurmagomedov walks off and raises his arms before time expires, and the two reach the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov (29-28 Nurmagomedov)
The Official Result
Umar Nurmagomedov def. Mario Bautista via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.
Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.
The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.
Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 173 of 302 | 57% | 173 of 302 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 122 of 304 | 40% | 122 of 304 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 65 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 108 | 60% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 27 of 119 | 22% | 27 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 173 of 302 | 57% | 96 of 216 | 58 of 66 | 19 of 20 | 172 of 301 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 122 of 304 | 40% | 92 of 265 | 14 of 22 | 16 of 17 | 118 of 299 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 43 of 91 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 18 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 36 of 74 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 103 | 63% | 42 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 59 of 111 | 53% | 49 of 96 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 56 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 108 | 60% | 36 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 27 of 119 | 22% | 21 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mix (-180), Bautista (+150)
Round 1
Keith Peterson will officiate "Patchy" Mix's UFC debut. They touch gloves. Bautista wastes no time and starts punching to the body and throwing leg kicks. Bautista is throwing out jabs and straight rights at Mix. Nice right hand to the body by Bautista. Mix eats a 1-2 and hasn't been able to get anything off. Mix is starting to throw his jab, but is eating leg kicks from Bautista. Mix is backed up by a right hand from Bautista. Mix is starting to throw his own kicks and slowly getting more comfortable inside the Octagon. Nice right straight for Bautista that stings Mix. Bautista is repeatedly throwing 1-2 combinations and having success. Two minutes left. Mix throwing some half-hearted leg kicks that aren't landing. Bautista is having success going to the body. Nice body kick by Bautista. Mix is standing still and getting hit without showing much defense or doing anything offensively. Very poor first impression on the big stage. The round ends with Bautista stinging Mix with a combination.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Mix comes out throwing calf kicks. Nice body kick scores for Bautista. Bautista jabbing to both the body and head. Mix lands a solid right hand, but Bautista connects with a looping left in response. Bautista is much busier and has a far greater output so far. Mix is reacting better than in the first round, connecting with some right hooks and catching Bautista as he comes in. Mix's corner is calling for takedown attempts, but he hasn't tried to grapple at all. Bautista landing some nice jabs. Nice head kick lands by Mix. Bautista is now backing up, allowing Mix to throw a 1-2. This is a much better round for Mix. Bautista and Mix are going tit for tat, both hitting each other with stiff jabs. A big left hand lands for Bautista. Mix tries a jumping knee that is way off the mark. Bautista is bloodied below his right eye from the jabs of Mix. Bautista is coming on late and is pouring on punches, allowing him to cement this round in his favor.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The final round opens with Mix being more aggressive as he knows he needs a finish. Mix goes for a desperate takedown and eats punches from Bautista as a result. Bautista is repeatedly finding a home for his right hand. Mix is now cut above his right eye. Bautista is in full control, jabbing away and outclassing Mix. Bautista eats a 1-2 but answers back with a low kick of his own. Mix lands a slapping body kick. Mix is chasing after Bautista but is unable to land much. Bautista's footwork is making a huge difference as Mix can't keep up with his movement. Mix lands a nice left straight but eats a jab. Bautista throws out a head kick that misses its mark. Nice 1-2 from Bautista. More leg kicks from Bautista. Mix lands a nice left hand and a knee with 30 seconds left to go, but it winds up being far too little. Bautista throws a jumping knee as the round ends. A deflating debut for Mix.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Patrick Mix via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27); R3, 5:00.
Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.
Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.
Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.
Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.
Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.
This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-155), Aldo (+130)
Round 1
Once dumped unceremoniously on the prelims, cooler heads have prevailed as “The King of Rio” Aldo (32-8, 14-7 UFC) is now positioned firmly on the main card of UFC 307. While the beloved former featherweight king was previously ready to say farewell to the sport, he appears reinvigorated and in as great of condition as ever. The promotion opted to match him against fellow striker Bautista (14-2, 8-2 UFC), in what may turn out to be a battle of leg kicks. Referee Mike Beltran will preside over the bantamweights, and he watches on as they tap their fists together to say hello. Bautista is the first to land a leg kick, and he punches his way into close range. Aldo blocks a head kick and kicks the lead leg back, and he allows Bautista to buzz past him and lets go with another one of his patented low kicks. Bautista splits the guard with a right hand, and he strings a few punches together to the body before shooting in for a takedown. Aldo places his back against the cage, stifling any hopes of a takedown, and they trade knees on the inside. Bautista irritates Aldo with a number of shoulder strikes, dirty boxing his opponent and kneeing him anywhere he can find a target. Beltran asks for more activity than short strikes, and Bautista changes levels but is stuffed again. A third effort similarly falls short. Aldo looks to his corner for ideas on how to escape, and Beltran is almost ready to get involved. Bautista slashes with an elbow and scores several more knees until Aldo has had enough and he escapes. Bautista scores a knee but is met with a low kick, and he jumps forward to strike and gets Aldo’s attention. Aldo springs away, and he has a left hand brush past his face and steels himself to stop a takedown. Bautista gets back into the clinch, where he stomps on Aldo’s toes and makes it grindy. Beltran tells them to work to finish, and Aldo shoves him away. Aldo walks him down and misses with a left hook, but he snaps out two jabs and a short punch combo. Aldo blocks the counters and reaches out with a left hand, and he gets knocked back when committing to a low kick. Aldo nails Bautista with an overhand right hand, and Bautista tries to pay him back with one immediately. Bautista kicks the former champ in the ribs and dances away from a one-two to peck at Aldo. “The King of Rio” knocks Bautista back a few steps with a combination of punches, and he ducks a whizzing foot to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
Fists are bumped to open the second stanza, and Aldo is ready for an advancing Bautista and lifts a knee preemptively. Bautista reaches him with a few distance strikes, and he dips down with a left and a right. A few snapping jabs shred a cut open on Bautista’s right eye, and Bautista’s head gets snapped back. Aldo tags him with a few left hands and a powerful knee, the latter landing when Bautista shot for a takedown. Aldo scores a left, and Bautista gets back going again and lines up long punches down the pipe. Aldo comes up short with another intercepting elbow, and he catches Bautista with a left and a right. Bautista walks him down and into a few more blows, and they land punches at the same time. Aldo drops his hands, and Bautista shoots for a takedown. Aldo keeps himself upright and absorbs several shoulder strikes and short blows from his opponent with his back to the cage. Beltran calls for Bautista to do more, and Bautista answers with a thumping shoulder strike and a level change. Aldo stops the second from succeeding, and he is met with a few more shoulder shots before splitting. Aldo tags Bautista with a knee, and when Bautista pays him back, Aldo gets angry. Unleashing massive power, Aldo lets his hands go, and he knocks Bautista around but cannot stun him. Bautista gets behind a jab, stabbing out his strikes until diving after a single. Aldo’s takedown defense is immaculate thus far, but he gets leaned on by the younger, more energetic fighter. Bautista lifts a leg up to try to ground him, and Aldo hops around to keep his balance before shoving Bautista away. Aldo unleashes a fury of four punches, and when going for more, Bautista surprises him with a jump knee. Aldo swings hard and misses, allowing Bautista to try and fail with one more takedown before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
Reaching the final frame, the bantamweights meet in the middle for a glove touch and a brief embrace. Aldo is still throwing heat, however, and he winds up with a right hand that comes up short. He pops out his jab a few times to follow, snapping Bautista’s head back when entering. Bautista jabs him back, and his high kick slides off the shoulder. Bautista scores a one-two, and Aldo peppers him with jabs and an overhand right. Bautista pokes out with jabs and a low kick, and Aldo’s strikes are far more impactful as Bautista reacts nearly every time he absorbs a blow. Bautista pressures forward and walks into a left hook, and he wings a right hand over the top to reply. Aldo digs a left to the body and is met with a charging takedown that pushes Aldo to the fence but no further. The Brazilian does not budge, fighting off a subsequent trip and otherwise being shoved against the fence. Bautista nearly disrupts Aldo’s balance and drags him to a knee, but Aldo pops back up as if his seat was on fire. Bautista doggedly pursues the takedown as Beltran calls for activity, and before long, there is a separation. Bautista immediately charges in for a double, and the crowd is not thrilled. Beltran does not wait long before telling Bautista to improve their position, and he nearly breaks them up but Aldo manages to do it for him. Aldo bursts into action, swinging with bad intentions and knocking Bautista back. Bautista tries to tie him up, and he drops low for a single to take the wind out of Aldo’s sails. Aldo lands two punches, catches Bautista mid-air with another and then knees his man in the gut as the final horn blares. It could go either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Simon (-175), Bautista (+145)
Round 1
A spot in the top 15 at bantamweight is on the line for this “featured fight of the night.” Simon (20-4, 8-3 UFC) lost in his last fight in a main event, and Bautista (13-2, 7-2 UFC) has rattled off five straight in the Octagon. The two speedy fighters will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, and they race towards one another without a glove touch in sight. As Bautista starts off with leg kicks, Simon opts to jump over one. Bautista continues spamming kicks, and one glances off the cup. Simon shakes it and signals to Smith he does not need a break. Bautista changes his trajectory and aims a kick at the head, and Simon cannot find his distance with Bautista kicking again and again. Simon times one advancing movement of his foe with a big left hand, and he clips Bautista with a right hand when Bautista does not get away in time. Bautista lances the guard with two punches, and he connects with a flying knee as well but he is the one that hits the ground. Bautista jumps back to his feet before Simon can climb on top of him, and he leaps at Simon with a knee. Simon catches him in the air and tackles him to the canvas, where he lands on top of his man and quickly gets to half guard. Simon skitters over to the side, and he threatens with a guillotine choke before Bautista scrambles back to his feet. Bautista escapes the choke and scores two big punches on the way up and out. Simon chambers and fires a pair of heavier low kicks, and he walks through a step-in knee so he can take Bautista down. Bautista fights off one attempt, and he gets away and prepares a knee when Simon comes at him. Simon takes it like a champ and keeps plowing forward, and he succeeds in pushing Bautista against the wall. Bautista fights his way out of the tie-up and chases Simon down, working on the lead leg of his opponent and sticking out a few jabs. Bautista unloads with a right hand after a jab, and he falls forward to his face. Simon lets him up so he can slug it out with him, and Bautista responds with two jabs and a body shot. Bautista aims a kick to the ribs, and he follows it with two more. Bautista rushes after his foe with a jump knee, and he gets cracked with a left hand and falls over. Bautista scrambles wildly and fights off a back take to get back upright, and Simon gives chase until the wild round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
The round kicks off with several kicks for Bautista, who spins his way into a wheel kick that misses by a matter of inches. Both fighters swing with major power and do not find their home, and Simon opens up with a combination only to get countered and driven back. Simon kicks low and gets checked, and Bautista strings together five punches and keeps the pace up. Simon chambers but does not release his strikes until unloading with a left to the body, and Bautista’s volume triples him up. Bautista swings so hard with a right and a left hook that he almost goes down, and he catches himself in the process. Simon scores a right and shoots in for a double, pushing Bautista back to the wire but halted from lifting Bautista up in the air. Bautista escapes the position and chains a number of punches together before Simon can get him back. Bautista connects with a crisp elbow, and Simon gets stunned and winds up to throw back but learns that Bautista is out of the way. Bautista rips a few shots to the body that land with thumps, and Simon looks for a straight right hand. Bautista retaliates with his own straight right, and Simon sneaks forward and catches him with a knee. Simon pushes out a right hand, and Bautista belts him in the body with a powerful liver kick. Bautista drives a knee to the solar plexus and takes a left hand that bloodies his nose, and he looks for an uppercut. Simon jabs and digs a right to the body, and Bautista counters him with multiple powerful blows. Simon shakes off the cobwebs and shoots for a double, and Bautista shuts him down and pushes off. Bautista lands at the end of a right hand, and Simon gets backed off by subsequent jabs and a knee that bounces off his guard. Bautista reaches out with a right, and Simon responds with a takedown. Bautista stops it, dodges a right hand and sticks out a front kick that smacks Simon in the face right before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The bantamweights are ready and rearing to go to start off the final frame, and they proceed to open up with flurries of punches. The heavy shots from Simon continue to bloody the nose of his opponent, but Bautista is accurate and putting up decent numbers. Bautista ducks under a big punch and goes after his own takedown, but Simon turns the tables and lifts him up in the air. In true Matt Hughes fashion, Simon carries Bautista from one side of the cage to the other, and he slams Bautista down on his elbow. Simon lowers himself down in half guard to squeeze with an arm-triangle choke, but Bautista’s leg fighting drags him back to guard. The two scramble madly until Bautista escapes well enough to wall-walk, and he is back up in the blink of an eye. Simon slips a punch and scores a left, and Bautista steps in with a knee that is just short. Bautista does not allow Simon to take a break, but Simon is ready and willing to trade furious. Simon continues to pursue takedowns, and Bautista fights them off and backs Simon up against the cage. Bautista dings Simon with straight punches, more content to touch than load up on anything of merit. Bautista boots Simon in the guts with a kick, and he chains punches together with cardio not an issue at all. Bautista plinks Simon with accurate punches, and Simon desperately goes for a takedown as his gas tank appears to be fading. Bautista stands him up and busts him up with a continuously flood of fists. Simon is tough and still looking for takedowns, but Bautista is a stone wall at this point and ready to throw hands. Simon gets stood up again and tries for a jump knee, and Bautista pursues a takedown to conclude the fight. He does not get it before the bell, ending one heck of a scrap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Ricky Simon via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 90 of 174 | 51% | 108 of 192 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 79 of 137 | 57% | 102 of 161 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 38 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 41 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 90 of 174 | 51% | 48 of 123 | 22 of 30 | 20 of 21 | 52 of 129 | 37 of 42 | 1 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 79 of 137 | 57% | 48 of 103 | 21 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 51 of 101 | 24 of 30 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 29 of 48 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 15 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 19 of 25 | 76% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 32 of 67 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 52 | 40% | 12 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 28 of 45 | 62% | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bautista (-225), Blackshear (+180)
Round 1
While the aforementioned Munhoz stepped up last month to save that fight, Blackshear (14-5-1, 2-1-1 UFC) could make history by becoming the first UFC fighter in the modern era to win two fights within seven days – obviously excluding tournament fights from the days of old. Just a week ago, Blackshear hit a twister submission on Jose Johnson, so Bautista (12-2, 4-2 UFC) will have to be on his toes as he goes from expecting to fight striker Cody Garbrandt to someone in Blackshear that holds most of his wins by submission. Keeping this bantamweight scrap on the up-and-up will be referee Bryan Miner, and it starts with a sporting glove touch. Blackshear is the one to push the pace immediately, and he parries a few jabs and strikes back with a leg kick. Bautista responds with his own leg kick that he turns his hips into, and Blackshear strides forward through a second. Blackshear kicks the side, and they come together throwing haymakers. Neither lands with anything cleanly, and Blackshear rolls when Bautista launches a huge right hand. Blackshear crashes the pocket and ties Bautista up in order to go after a trip takedown from behind, and Bautista keeps his balance and works his way to the fence. Blackshear peppers his man with knees while maintaining the body lock, and he succeeds in slinging the MMA Lab product down to the canvas. Bautista’s guard is active the moment he hits the floor, and he works his way to his seat and the cage wall. Blackshear lifts one leg all the way up in the air for a complete split, and Bautista wrenches his leg free and stands back up. Punching his way out of the clinch, Bautista engages another from a different angle so that he can measure “Da Monster” with a knee on the chin. Blackshear connects with a calf kick that nearly trips Bautista up, and Bautista recovers and belts Blackshear in the side of the head with a right hand. Blackshear kicks the body and shoots in for a takedown, and he drops Bautista to one knee but cannot keep him there for more than a couple seconds. As Blackshear circles around, he takes the back and kicks Bautista’s legs out from beneath him to pull off a mat return. Bautista scrambles brilliantly to turn himself around and press himself on top of Blackshear, who is going after another takedown. Bautista snatches this up to secure a guillotine choke, and Blackshear is not remotely concerned as he motions a thumbs-up before pulling his neck out. Both men fight back to their feet, and Blackshear misses with a short elbow as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Round 2
The 135ers touch gloves at the last second, and Blackshear starts off the round with a chopping leg kick. Bautista swings hard back at him, with punches that come extremely close but do not connect. Bautista loads up on punches, and Blackshear crowds him and considers a body lock before eating an elbow on the mug. Bautista turns the tables on him by shooting in for a double, and he clasps his hands but is unable to ground the taller Blackshear. Blackshear cracks Bautista with several short but powerful elbows on the inside, and Bautista gives him one back to break apart. Bautista lashes out with a kick on the calf, and he springs forward with a one-two that is intercepted with a leg kick coming his way. Blackshear ties his opponent up and jams him against the fencing, and he plants an elbow on the ear. Both men wildly jockey for position before releasing their pummels, and Bautista comes out firing with a head kick that brushes past Blackshear’s hair. Blackshear doubles up on three low inside leg kicks, and he chambers and fires one to the body to keep Bautista guessing. Bautista replies with body shots that set up a takedown entry, and Blackshear shuts it down and turns him around in the clinch. The two both connect with short elbows before splitting up, and Blackshear hunts for a takedown in the open cage but shuts it down when Bautista stops him. Bautista gets off a right hand, and Blackshear appears to be slowing and is less elusive than the previous frame. Blackshear shoots in for a double, and he takes Bautista off his feet. Bautista immediately explodes back to his feet, and the two get back to striking range. Blackshear splits the guard with a right hand, and Bautista returns fire with a left hook. Blackshear catches a kick, and Bautista pulls it back and strikes to the lead leg. The two clinch up, and Bautista pursues a single. When Blackshear stops it, Bautista wings an elbow, and Blackshear ducks it and strafes to the side. The round ends with Bautista giving chase.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blackshear
Round 3
There is a final glove touch to commence the final frame. Bautista pushes the pace, and he racks a right hand on the temple. Blackshear wears it well but is putting his back to the cage. Blackshear uses his range to keep Bautista at bay, but Bautista reaches him with several flush right hands. Blackshear is slowing down considerably, while Bautista is finding his home with his big right hand more and more. Bautista pursues a takedown, and Blackshear puts his back flat against the fence to stifle it. Bautista gets off a single elbow before backing off, but he meanders right back to tie his adversary up and go for another level change. Blackshear shuts this down, and he pushes out a few jabs before Bautista shoots again. This time, Blackshear is unable to halt it, and Bautista quickly slides around to take his foe’s back. Bautista gets one hook in as Blackshear pushes his foot off the cage, and Blackshear uses his leverage to turn himself over to his knees. Bautista is a 135-pound weight on his back, keeping Blackshear from standing up for more than a second. Bautista attacks the body with a knee, and he drags Blackshear back down to secure partial back control. Bautista finds himself somehow in a twister setup position, but instead of attempting it, he lands ground-and-pound. Both men fight back to their feet as Blackshear scrambles with all his might, Blackshear appears fresher now and rails Bautista with a straight right hand. Bautista crumbles to the mat, but he is able to recover and open his guard up when Blackshear climbs into it. This allows Bautista to hit a sweep, and he puts Blackshear on his back with seconds left in the fight. A few strikes from the MMA Lab export conclude the match, and it is entirely possible that Blackshear will be the first fighter in modern UFC history to notch two wins within a week.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (29-28 Blackshear)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Da’Mon Blackshear via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.
Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.
Jay Perrin - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raul Rosas Jr. | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.
Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.
Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.
Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.
Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.
Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin by close decision. He acknowledges Perrin is a formidable fighter who gave tough fights to Aoriqileng and Mario Bautista, but believes Rosas Jr.'s willingness to grapple will be the difference. He expects Rosas Jr. to secure takedowns and control positions, possibly losing a round but winning 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aoriqileng | 0 | 72 of 132 | 54% | 102 of 163 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 88 of 167 | 52% | 106 of 188 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 5:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aoriqileng | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 24 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 25 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Aoriqileng | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 47 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 24 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 | |
| 3 | Aoriqileng | 0 | 25 of 58 | 43% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 57 of 79 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aoriqileng | 72 of 132 | 54% | 51 of 107 | 14 of 17 | 7 of 8 | 61 of 119 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 88 of 167 | 52% | 63 of 135 | 20 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 73 of 148 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aoriqileng | 18 of 31 | 58% | 15 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 20 of 49 | 40% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Aoriqileng | 29 of 43 | 67% | 19 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 20 of 49 | 40% | 15 of 41 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Aoriqileng | 25 of 58 | 43% | 17 of 48 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 51 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 48 of 69 | 69% | 38 of 59 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 36 of 56 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aori (-175), Perrin (+130)
Round 1
Former W.A.R.S champion Aori locks horns with ex-Cage Titans ruler Perrin in a bantamweight clash that will be overseen by Tyler Tomlinson. Gloves are touched and we’re underway. Perrin misses the mark on a combination early and a “USA” chant breaks out. Perrin with a quick leg kick. A left hook to the body lands for Perrin and Aori catches the ensuing kick. He releases the grip and sticks a straight right hand. Perrin pressures with a combination, but Aori moves out of danger. It’s a very measured beginning for Aori, who tags Perrin with another straight right. Perrin rushes forward and gets staggered with a short, counter left hook. Aori looks for an opening, backs his man up and launches a flying knee. That allows Perrin to force the clinch and turn Aori into the cage. Aori breaks free and swings heavy punches, including an uppercut he sneaks under Perrin’s left. Aori stalks his foe and lands a couple heavy punches. Perrin looks to clinch, but Aori quickly breaks free. A nice two-punch combination finds the mark for “The Mongolian Murderer.” A leg kick connects for Perrin. Aori lands a hard leg kick and avoids Perrin’s rush. Perrin lands a leaping knee but eats a left hook on the exit. Perrin changes levels, connects the hands and plants Aori on the mat with 20 seconds left. Perrin passes to half guard and then stands to land a few punches before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 2
Perrin just misses a snap kick up the middle. Aori steps in with a body-head combo. Perrin shakes off a jumping knee from Aori and waggles his finger. Perrin catches a low kick fro Aori and capitalizes with a takedown. He dives into top position about a minute in, working from half guard. Aori recovers full guard and slides to the cage, where he wall walks to his knees. Perrin still has his hands locked, but he moves Aori to his feet. Aori reverses position and separates, which prompts a glove touch from Perrin halfway through the round. A short counter right clips Perrin, who seems to recover quickly. Another counter right lands following a Perrin combination. A glancing right lands for Aori and Perrin shakes his head before blitzing forward. Aori is economical with his offense, but is doing the most damage. A hard calf kick lands for Aori, but Perrin keeps the pressure on and gets in on a single leg. Aori defends nicely with his back to the cage. Aori breaks and dodges an elbow. A straight to the body lands for Aori and then a counter right moments later. Perrin keeps wading forward and throwing punches unitl the horn, and a few find the mark.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Round 3
The combatants touch gloves again before the final stanza. Perrin pressures with a kick to the body, but then gets tagged with a short counter right. They’re trading early, and then it’s Aori who shoots. Perrin stuffs it and shoves his foe into the fence. Perrin with a short elbow in close as he grinds away. Aori separates and returns to the center of the Octagon. Perrin lands a glancing jab. Perrin switches stances and steps in with a left hook. Perrin keeps the pressure on and lands a knee in close. He doesn’t give Aori any space and he gets a takedown. Aori hustles to his feet in a hurry and Perrin presses him into the fence, landing a knee to the body. Perrin drops for a double leg and briefly gets Aori to a knee. He keeps the pressure on and lands a couple short punches and a knee in close quarters. Perrin drops low for another takedown, but Aori stuffs it. Perrin creates an opening to land a short elbow. Aori is staying stuck on the fence this round, allowing Perrin to impose his will a little more than in previous frames. Perrin again thinks about a takedown, but Aori isn’t having it. Finally Aori breaks free with about a minute to go. Perrin pressures with punches and eats a counter right. Perrin lands a leg kick and then tries his luck with a spinning back fist. A straight right lands for Aori, but Perrin answers with a front kick down the middle. Aori stuffs an ensuing takedown shot, but he’s pressed into the fence, and Perrin separates and is teeing off with punches in the waning moments of the round. It’s spirited action in the final seconds, and Perrin appears to have Aori reeling as several solid punches land. The Chinese fighter survives the assault, but it’s a strong finish for Perrin.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)
The Official Result
Qileng Aori def. Jay Perrin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Aoriqileng (Corey Lang) over Jay Perrin. He describes Lang as a well-rounded fighter with incredible pressure and pace, solid footwork, and a sturdy chin. He notes that Perrin is primarily a wrestler who almost never gets his first takedown and spends time against the cage. Angelo believes Lang's superior striking and ability to work off the cage will earn him his second UFC win. He thinks the -190 line is about right and might try to beat the curve if it moves further.
Big Brady is siding with the underdog Jay Perrin. He notes that Aoriqileng (Richie Long) is a powerful striker but is hittable and has cardio concerns. Perrin fights with a process, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and has excellent cardio. Brady believes Perrin will take Aoriqileng down, wear on him, and win minutes on the mat across three rounds, likely by decision. He trusts Perrin's game plan and sees a clear path to victory.
Cody picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and physicality. He notes Aoriqileng has been taken down before and thinks Perrin can replicate that. He hopes the training with top wrestlers pays off.
Daniel Levi leans toward Aoriqileng (the Mongolian Murderer) but is not confident. He notes that Aoriqileng has one-hitter-quitter power and has faced better competition, but the blueprint to beat him is established (out-volume or out-grapple). Levi is concerned about Aoriqileng's cardio and the effects of travel and elevation if he trained overseas. He thinks if Aoriqileng lands big shots, he wins, but if not, Jay Perrin's solid all-around game could make it competitive.
Jay Perrin is the dog of the night play with 2 units at +132. He expects Perrin to use a grapple-heavy approach similar to Cody Durden's blueprint against Aoriqileng, landing takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground. Perrin has solid durability and has been training at Syndicate MMA, which should help his development. Aoriqileng is the better striker but can be beaten by wrestlers, as seen in the Durden fight.
Paul picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and training with Merab and Aljamain Sterling. He thinks Perrin can take down Aoriqileng and grind out a win. He notes the line has moved and he may have missed the best value.
The Guru predicts Aoriqileng wins by first-round KO. He describes both fighters exchanging shots, with Perrin taking a big shot and shooting a takedown that Aoriqileng stuffs. He sees Aoriqileng landing elbows, body shots, and a big overhand that rocks Perrin, finishing him against the cage via TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 72 of 125 | 57% | 112 of 173 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 6:30 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 42 of 107 | 39% | 57 of 122 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 19 of 38 | 50% | 31 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:55 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 29 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 39 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 19 of 45 | 42% | 23 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 42 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:11 |
| Jay Perrin | 0 | 4 of 20 | 20% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 72 of 125 | 57% | 43 of 86 | 17 of 24 | 12 of 15 | 39 of 83 | 29 of 36 | 4 of 6 |
| Jay Perrin | 42 of 107 | 39% | 16 of 67 | 19 of 30 | 7 of 10 | 33 of 95 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 19 of 38 | 50% | 8 of 20 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 28 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 19 of 42 | 45% | 8 of 26 | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 27 of 41 | 65% | 18 of 31 | 7 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jay Perrin | 19 of 45 | 42% | 8 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 26 of 46 | 56% | 17 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 4 of 6 |
| Jay Perrin | 4 of 20 | 20% | 0 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Twelve fights will treat fans for this all-ESPN+ offering, and name value may be low but potential action could be high if the audience is lucky. We kick things off in the bantamweight division, as MMA Lab product Bautista (8-2, 2-2 UFC) faces short-notice New Hampshire-based newcomer Perrin (10-4, 0-0 UFC). The first assignment of the night goes to nonsense-slaying referee Keith Peterson, and with a touch of gloves between the two competitors, away we go! Bautista leads off with a leg kick when Perrin advances, and he slings another as Perrin backs off. The New Englander rushes forward in pursuit of a takedown, only to get met with a flying knee try on the way in. Perrin absorbs it and presses Bautista into the fence, but they split after a brief exchange. Bautista tries for another flying knee, and this one is less accurate as Perrin backs off in time. The two meet in the middle with right hands, and Perrin is able to gain some space and rip a kick to the calf. Perrin goes high with a kick, Bautista blocks it, kicks the leg and goes up top with a one-two. Bautista presses forward using his jab to back the newcomer off, and he bullies “Savage” Perrin into the wall. When Perrin looks to escape, Bautista muscles him back to the fence and drills him in the solar plexus with a knee. They trade short knees up the middle as they jockey for position against the wire, and when Perrin lifts up a knee, Bautista trips his leg out and drops him to his knees. Perrin muscles his way back up, and they trade short shots before splitting. Bautista reaches with a long combination, and at the end of a punch, he staggers Perrin briefly. The New England native shoots in as a response to hit a quick double-leg takedown, but as soon as Bautista’s backside hits the mat, he is already looking for a way up. Bautista powers his way up, and he turns the tables in search his own takedown entry. There is nothing to be had from it, and Perrin with his back against the fence scores a solid knee up the middle. Bautista responds with a thudding shoulder strike, and this forces a split. Perrin absorbs a knee up close, dislodging his mouthpiece, and he stands back to allow Peterson to replace it. Bautista attacks with a spinning back elbow that goes wide, and the opening round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 2
The bantamweights offer and accept a glove touch to start the second stanza, and Perrin comes out firing with a couple of looping shots. Perrin backs his man off and attempts to steal his thunder with a flying knee, but it glances off his intended target. Perrin takes a right hand flush on the chin, forcing him to reset, and they both stick jabs out. Bautista walks his man down and leaps in the air with a knee, and the knee brushes off the side of the debuting fighter’s head but does not hurt him. Perrin ties him up, and they both start kneeing each other up close. Bautista goes back to shoulder strikes, mixing in with a few elbows, and he drags Perrin to the mat. “Savage” springs back up, and Bautista grabs him from the neck from behind and throws him down to the canvas in pursuit of a submission setup or back take. Perrin scrambles effectively to break the grip, and he shakes his head to get Bautista’s hands off of him. The clinch ensues again, and Perrin changes levels for a double that does not succeed. Bautista circles around after thwarting an attempt to try to hit a trip, but he bails on it so that he can stand Perrin up with a flush elbow on the nose. Bautista loads up on another elbow to the same spot, and Perrin is forced to blink it out and then takes a few knees to the body. Perrin tries to pay him back with an elbow and a few punches, but Bautista is able to shell up and back out of range. Bautista closes in on him and knees up the middle, and Perrin eats it like a steak and walks forward to land a trio of punches. Bautista shrugs them off and digs the midsection with a kick. They trade strikes, and Perrin charges with a salvo of punches and a kick, only to most hit air or his foe’s guard. Perrin begins to plod forward with strike combinations, and when they are blocked, both fighters opt to throw single high kicks. The round ends after these unsuccessful head kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista
Round 3
The fighters are happy to touch gloves to start off the last round, and Perrin takes a few steps back in anticipation of a flying knee. It comes from Bautista, and Perrin is well out of the way in time. Perrin starts chipping away with low kicks and body shots, but his punches that follow are largely inaccurate as Bautista moves quickly. Bautista answers Perrin’s single shots with some of his own, matching a leg kick for his own that sounds much heavier. Bautista charges in, and his sheer momentum bowls the newcomer over for a moment. Perrin powers his way back up, but he finds himself absorbing shoulder checks to the jaw, one of which dislodges his mouthpiece. Bautista wrangles him down to the mat by taking him from behind, and he kicks at Perrin’s leg to try to trip him out. When this does not succeed, Peterson hands Perrin’s mouthpiece back, and it is replaced. Bautista advances rapidly to start laying into Perrin with close, powerful strikes. Several thumping knees and elbows over the top make Perrin double over, and Bautista continues his surge of strikes that have bloodied Perrin’s face up and forced him to take a few deep breaths. A few more shoulders of the MMA Lab fighter smash into Perrin’s jaw, and Bautista controls his debuting foe against the wire while laying into Perrin with powerful strikes. A huge elbow comes over the top from Bautista, and Perrin is wearing it but not out of it as he turns Bautista around and tries for a takedown. Bautista stops this in its tracks, pounds a knee into Perrin’s chest, and trips the newcomer down in an emphatic “Welcome to the UFC” exchange. Perrin crawls to his knee, and as soon as he stands, Bautista smashes him in the face with a high knee. The relatively one-sided match comes to a close in the clinch position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bautista (30-27 Bautista)
The Official Result
Mario Bautista def. Jay Perrin via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.
Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.
Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.
Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.
Paul picks Bautista, noting that Perrin doesn't have crippling power, which is Bautista's main concern. He thinks Bautista's aggressive style and wrestling will be too much for Perrin. Paul is waiting for the line but expects Bautista to be a solid favorite.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.
Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.
Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.
Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.
Paul picks Bautista, noting that Perrin doesn't have crippling power, which is Bautista's main concern. He thinks Bautista's aggressive style and wrestling will be too much for Perrin. Paul is waiting for the line but expects Bautista to be a solid favorite.
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