vs
-333 +310
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill
Age 32
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 32
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Mario Bautista
5.3 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.98 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
1.91 TD Avg
38.0% TD Acc.
55.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jay Perrin
3.71 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
3.9 SApM
44.0% Str. Def.
2.83 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Mario Bautista
Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
FanDuel +115
Jay Perrin
Moneyline
FanDuel +310
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
FanDuel +600
Mario Bautista - Fight History
SCHED vs Cory Sandhagen
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Submission R2 4:46 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 15 of 27 55% 49 of 63 5 of 7 71% 1 0 5:47
Vinicius Oliveira 0 12 of 21 57% 18 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 9 33% 22 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Mario Bautista 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 34 4 of 5 80% 1 0 3:29
Vinicius Oliveira 0 6 of 13 46% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 15 of 27 55% 10 of 20 5 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 12 0 of 2 9 of 13
Vinicius Oliveira 12 of 21 57% 3 of 10 3 of 5 6 of 6 9 of 18 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 9 33% 1 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 5
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 8 75% 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 3 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 12 of 18 66% 9 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 2 7 of 8
Vinicius Oliveira 6 of 13 46% 3 of 9 0 of 1 3 of 3 5 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.

"Mario Batista is going to be the pick. I think Mario can go dog for dog with Venicious and he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.

by third round submission
"I'm going to take Mario Batista to win this fight. I'm going to say he wins this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.

"I think I'm going to go the opposite end on Venicius Olivera... this guy's about as big as 135 pounds as you're possibly going to get."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.

Same odds discussion as Zane.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.

under 4.5 rounds, Mario Bautista wins in round 4 or 5
"My prediction will be Mario Batista to get this one done in the championship rounds inside the distance, probably submission for the first time in Venicious Olivivera's career."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.

inside the distance
"So, give me Maru Bautista inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.

over 2.5 rounds, fight goes the distance
"My concerns for Olive Vera here, obviously he's had quite the run... I do have concerns about his gas tank in a five round fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2026 (fight day)
Mario Bautista

The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.

decision 4 rounds to 1
"I think he'll win a decision, five four rounds to one. A four rounds to one decision win for Mario Bautista."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.

Bautista opened at -140, currently -160; Oliveira opened at +120, currently +140. Zane thinks the line is fair and could go to -200.
"I still have to lean in the direction of Batista as well."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Umar Nurmagomedov 0 32 of 54 59% 81 of 105 11 of 14 78% 0 0 10:46
Mario Bautista 1 20 of 54 37% 33 of 67 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 6 83% 32 of 34 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:37
Mario Bautista 0 1 of 1 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 39 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:02
Mario Bautista 1 9 of 28 32% 14 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 27 55% 20 of 32 7 of 9 77% 0 0 3:07
Mario Bautista 0 10 of 25 40% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Umar Nurmagomedov 32 of 54 59% 24 of 44 6 of 8 2 of 2 23 of 44 2 of 2 7 of 8
Mario Bautista 20 of 54 37% 6 of 37 11 of 14 3 of 3 17 of 50 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Umar Nurmagomedov 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 6
Mario Bautista 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Umar Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 10 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mario Bautista 9 of 28 32% 3 of 19 4 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Umar Nurmagomedov 15 of 27 55% 9 of 20 4 of 5 2 of 2 11 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Mario Bautista 10 of 25 40% 3 of 18 6 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.

Minus 420, he'll probably look it.
"Umar's going to be the pick. I don't think Mario's going to get away with that random forward or cage control pressure. ... It's three rounds, Umar wins this fight. Minus 420, he'll probably look it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.

Umar by second round submission
"I think Umar Nurmagomedov is going to take down Bautista and finish him here on the mat. Give me Umar Nurmagomedov to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.

"I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.

"So picking new, uh, Nirmagamad off, but that, you know, VOC should be recognizing stuff like this from what it is, uh, Umar is a huge favorite."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.

wins by decision
"I'm going to go Umar Nurmagomedov to win this decision."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission
"I think it's a 3027 or a submission rear naked choke win from Uma. I think it's a confident win here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.

small shot on Bautista for some people
"I don't mind a small shot on Bautista for some people, but as an official prediction, I'm going to go Nurmagamedov by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.

"I don't love the line. I don't love the line. But I do think Umar probably is a little bit better than Mario Bautista in every element."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.

mentioned in a PrizePicks parlay for more than 2.5 total rounds
"I've got Umar dragging him down against the cage, knee to the thigh, one hook in, maybe gets the back at the end of one of the rounds."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Umar Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.

Umar by decision or submission
"In three rounds, I really do just have to pick Umar. Whether it's Batista taking time to cool down or taking time to heat up. I think either way, it spells disaster for Batista."
CANCEL vs Marlon Vera
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)

This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.

"Mario was supposed to fight Cheeto Vera, but Cheeto dropped."
WIN vs Patchy Mix
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 07, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 173 of 302 57% 173 of 302 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 122 of 304 40% 122 of 304 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 43 of 91 47% 43 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 36 of 74 48% 36 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 103 63% 65 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 59 of 111 53% 59 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mario Bautista 0 65 of 108 60% 65 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Patchy Mix 0 27 of 119 22% 27 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 173 of 302 57% 96 of 216 58 of 66 19 of 20 172 of 301 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 122 of 304 40% 92 of 265 14 of 22 16 of 17 118 of 299 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 43 of 91 47% 18 of 60 18 of 24 7 of 7 43 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 36 of 74 48% 22 of 58 5 of 7 9 of 9 35 of 73 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 65 of 103 63% 42 of 78 20 of 21 3 of 4 64 of 102 1 of 1 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 59 of 111 53% 49 of 96 5 of 9 5 of 6 56 of 108 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 65 of 108 60% 36 of 78 20 of 21 9 of 9 65 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Patchy Mix 27 of 119 22% 21 of 111 4 of 6 2 of 2 27 of 118 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.

"I am going to pick Patchy though. ... Josh's confidence in Patchy and how good he is and how he's going to dominate here is pretty contagious."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 3, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.

Mix by submission in round 2
"I think Patchy gets Batista down here. And once he gets him down, I think he's staying there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Connor thinks the odds are fair.
"I think I'm going to pick Patchy Mix."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.

"I think that we're going to see Bautista shut down the grappling game of Mitch or Mix and then eventually outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker and from there he'll be able to put …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Patchy Mix

The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.

Finish prediction: first or second round submission (guillotine or anaconda). Mentions a $10K bonus for a brutal finish.
"I've got Patchy Mix finishing Mario Batista and there's 10K on it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.

Odds: Mix -174, Bautista +157. Zane thinks the odds are close and reasonable.
"I got to pick Mario Batista here."
WIN vs José Aldo
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 51 of 117 43% 65 of 139 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 49 of 142 34% 90 of 196 0 of 10 0% 0 0 7:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 13 of 26 50% 20 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 20 of 53 37% 40 of 81 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:20
2 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 43 48% 25 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 19 of 53 35% 31 of 65 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:14
3 Mario Bautista 0 17 of 48 35% 20 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
José Aldo 0 10 of 36 27% 19 of 50 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 51 of 117 43% 41 of 105 6 of 8 4 of 4 46 of 111 2 of 3 3 of 3
José Aldo 49 of 142 34% 26 of 111 12 of 19 11 of 12 44 of 136 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 13 of 26 50% 8 of 21 1 of 1 4 of 4 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
José Aldo 20 of 53 37% 8 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 8 15 of 48 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 21 of 43 48% 19 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 3
José Aldo 19 of 53 35% 15 of 46 2 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 17 of 48 35% 14 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
José Aldo 10 of 36 27% 3 of 26 5 of 8 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.

"I'm going to be picking Mario Batista here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.

second round knockout
"I like uh I like Alo here to win this fight I think he could even knock out Mario Batista you know Batista he's hitable we've seen him hurt we've seen him knocked out Trevon Jones knocked him out I …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.

"I think I'm gonna go Jose Aldo"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.

Same odds commentary.
"I think batista looks like a much tougher opponent. Yeah, absolutely does."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.

"I think Jose is gonna outclass this guy the first two rounds and Coast the last round win a 2928 unanimous decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.

"I'm going Aldo too uh I can't I couldn't believe it uh but going Jose Aldo too I think for me you know like you said I think what you look at with Mario Batista's record like yeah he's looked …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
José Aldo

Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.

"I got to go first I can't fade it Jose Aldo surprisingly he just still looks damn good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.

"I think Bautista will do a good enough job in terms of Landing his strikes from distance and I think he'll be able to crack Aldo a few times which will keep Aldo from getting to his game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.

"Bautista definitely has my interests and potentially my money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.

"I'm going to go with Jose Aldo over Mario Batista never doubt Aldo against the B"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.

Aldo opened at +149, now +124. Bautista opened at -168, now -139.
"I think i'm gonna pick batista though. I'm picking him too. I don't feel confident at all. I don't feel good about it. I don't feel confident in it. No, like I think he's gonna lose."
WIN vs Ricky Simón
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 90 of 174 51% 108 of 192 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:00
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 79 of 137 57% 102 of 161 2 of 10 20% 1 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 29 of 48 60% 38 of 57 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:28
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 19 of 25 76% 27 of 33 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:19
2 Mario Bautista 0 40 of 74 54% 44 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:27
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 32 of 67 47% 34 of 69 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:01
3 Mario Bautista 0 21 of 52 40% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Da'Mon Blackshear 0 28 of 45 62% 41 of 59 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 90 of 174 51% 48 of 123 22 of 30 20 of 21 52 of 129 37 of 42 1 of 3
Da'Mon Blackshear 79 of 137 57% 48 of 103 21 of 22 10 of 12 51 of 101 24 of 30 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 29 of 48 60% 11 of 27 11 of 14 7 of 7 13 of 28 15 of 18 1 of 2
Da'Mon Blackshear 19 of 25 76% 11 of 17 3 of 3 5 of 5 13 of 18 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 40 of 74 54% 25 of 54 7 of 11 8 of 9 23 of 56 17 of 18 0 of 0
Da'Mon Blackshear 32 of 67 47% 22 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 53 11 of 14 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 21 of 52 40% 12 of 42 4 of 5 5 of 5 16 of 45 5 of 6 0 of 1
Da'Mon Blackshear 28 of 45 62% 15 of 31 10 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 30 7 of 9 4 of 6
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.

win by KO, round 1
"I just see Mario Batista knocking him out just touching the chin at some point... first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.

over on fight duration; Bautista by decision
"I still gotta take Batista again I just think he is the better Fighter the what ifs of what if this thing gets extended well listen I'm sure he was ready for that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.

Dog or pass; Bautista by decision
"I'm just going to slightly lean towards Bautista... I think the pace of Bautista is going to kind of pull him away in the second and third rounds and kind of get him this decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mario Bautista

Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.

"I'm picking Batista to win and I think Batista probably gets it done by decision"
Jay Perrin - Fight History
LOSS vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Submission (face crank) R1 2:44 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raul Rosas Jr. 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 14 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:12
Jay Perrin 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raul Rosas Jr. 0 3 of 7 42% 9 of 14 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:12
Jay Perrin 0 4 of 8 50% 4 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raul Rosas Jr. 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raul Rosas Jr. 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Angelo is confident Rosas will dominate via wrestling and control, predicting a wet blanket decision. He has a 2-unit moneyline bet on Rosas at -255. However, he expresses concern that Rosas is too young (18) for the UFC, comparing him to Aaron Pico who was pushed too fast. He believes Rosas will outpace Perrin and wrestle him relentlessly.

2-unit moneyline bet at -255.
"I do have a two unit moneyline bet on him at minus 255. I'm very confident in this pick I think he's going to wet blanket his way to a decision"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jay Perrin

Big Brady picks the underdog Jay Perrin, citing Perrin's excellent takedown defense, cardio, and toughness. He notes Rosas Jr. has faced no adversity and has poor striking, while Perrin trains with Merab Dvalishvili and has good grappling. He expects Perrin to survive early takedowns and take over in later rounds, winning by decision or late finish.

Perrin wins by decision; Perrin is a dog at +195
"I'm actually gonna take the dog here and Jay Perrin to get the job done"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Cody picks Rosas Jr., citing his submission grappling and cardio. He thinks the UFC is building him up and that Perrin is a favorable matchup. He notes Rosas' relentless pressure and chain wrestling. He expects a submission or inside the distance win, and suggests taking Rosas inside the distance at plus 140.

Rosas Jr. inside the distance (+140)
"I think the kid rolls I think the kid wins likely by submission... I'd probably just take the plus 140 inside the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Daniel Levi picks Raul Rosas Jr., believing the UFC matched him against a weak opponent in Jay Perrin. He describes Perrin as average everywhere with a poor attitude, and notes that the UFC offered the fight to other fighters first. Levi likes Rosas's length, awkwardness, grappling ability (back takes, scrambles), and confidence. He expects Rosas to win, possibly by submission, but is not crazy about the -240 price. He suggests waiting for a better line around -200.

Suggests Rosas may choke Perrin out (submission).
"I think Raul Rosa is super long for a bantamweight really awkward especially with his grappling ability"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

Lock is confident in Rosas Jr. from a PredictionStrike perspective, noting that if he fulfills his potential, the current price of $1.26 will look like a steal. He acknowledges the possibility of struggles like other young fighters, but believes Rosas has the best base for MMA with his grappling and jiu-jitsu, and a safe style that minimizes damage. He thinks this is likely the best price you'll ever get on him, and recommends buying in for the long term.

"I don't mind getting in on him here because if he is any good this will probably be the best price you're going to get on him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, noting Rosas is very young (17) and that Perrin has wrestling credentials. He thinks Perrin could give Rosas trouble and that the fight is not a high priority for betting. He acknowledges Rosas' potential but is not confident either way.

"I honestly could see parent giving him troubles just on the basis of we can't ignore the fact that the kid's 17 years old... this is not a fight that I would put high up on the lust of priorities …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Raul Rosas Jr.

The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Jay Perrin by close decision. He acknowledges Perrin is a formidable fighter who gave tough fights to Aoriqileng and Mario Bautista, but believes Rosas Jr.'s willingness to grapple will be the difference. He expects Rosas Jr. to secure takedowns and control positions, possibly losing a round but winning 29-28.

"I'm going with Rosas Jr here over Jay perim J perrin's good so I'm not going to say that Raul destroys him I think this is going to be another decision for Raul"
LOSS vs Aoriqileng
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aoriqileng 0 72 of 132 54% 102 of 163 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Jay Perrin 0 88 of 167 52% 106 of 188 3 of 7 42% 0 0 5:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aoriqileng 0 18 of 31 58% 24 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
Jay Perrin 0 20 of 49 40% 25 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:04
2 Aoriqileng 0 29 of 43 67% 47 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jay Perrin 0 20 of 49 40% 24 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:04
3 Aoriqileng 0 25 of 58 43% 31 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jay Perrin 0 48 of 69 69% 57 of 79 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aoriqileng 72 of 132 54% 51 of 107 14 of 17 7 of 8 61 of 119 11 of 13 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 88 of 167 52% 63 of 135 20 of 25 5 of 7 73 of 148 13 of 16 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aoriqileng 18 of 31 58% 15 of 26 2 of 3 1 of 2 16 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 20 of 49 40% 10 of 35 8 of 10 2 of 4 17 of 44 1 of 2 2 of 3
2 Aoriqileng 29 of 43 67% 19 of 33 5 of 5 5 of 5 26 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 20 of 49 40% 15 of 41 3 of 6 2 of 2 20 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Aoriqileng 25 of 58 43% 17 of 48 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 51 6 of 7 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 48 of 69 69% 38 of 59 9 of 9 1 of 1 36 of 56 12 of 13 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Qileng Aori vs. Jay Perrin
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aori (-175), Perrin (+130)

Round 1
Former W.A.R.S champion Aori locks horns with ex-Cage Titans ruler Perrin in a bantamweight clash that will be overseen by Tyler Tomlinson. Gloves are touched and we’re underway. Perrin misses the mark on a combination early and a “USA” chant breaks out. Perrin with a quick leg kick. A left hook to the body lands for Perrin and Aori catches the ensuing kick. He releases the grip and sticks a straight right hand. Perrin pressures with a combination, but Aori moves out of danger. It’s a very measured beginning for Aori, who tags Perrin with another straight right. Perrin rushes forward and gets staggered with a short, counter left hook. Aori looks for an opening, backs his man up and launches a flying knee. That allows Perrin to force the clinch and turn Aori into the cage. Aori breaks free and swings heavy punches, including an uppercut he sneaks under Perrin’s left. Aori stalks his foe and lands a couple heavy punches. Perrin looks to clinch, but Aori quickly breaks free. A nice two-punch combination finds the mark for “The Mongolian Murderer.” A leg kick connects for Perrin. Aori lands a hard leg kick and avoids Perrin’s rush. Perrin lands a leaping knee but eats a left hook on the exit. Perrin changes levels, connects the hands and plants Aori on the mat with 20 seconds left. Perrin passes to half guard and then stands to land a few punches before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Aori

Round 2
Perrin just misses a snap kick up the middle. Aori steps in with a body-head combo. Perrin shakes off a jumping knee from Aori and waggles his finger. Perrin catches a low kick fro Aori and capitalizes with a takedown. He dives into top position about a minute in, working from half guard. Aori recovers full guard and slides to the cage, where he wall walks to his knees. Perrin still has his hands locked, but he moves Aori to his feet. Aori reverses position and separates, which prompts a glove touch from Perrin halfway through the round. A short counter right clips Perrin, who seems to recover quickly. Another counter right lands following a Perrin combination. A glancing right lands for Aori and Perrin shakes his head before blitzing forward. Aori is economical with his offense, but is doing the most damage. A hard calf kick lands for Aori, but Perrin keeps the pressure on and gets in on a single leg. Aori defends nicely with his back to the cage. Aori breaks and dodges an elbow. A straight to the body lands for Aori and then a counter right moments later. Perrin keeps wading forward and throwing punches unitl the horn, and a few find the mark.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aori
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Aori

Round 3
The combatants touch gloves again before the final stanza. Perrin pressures with a kick to the body, but then gets tagged with a short counter right. They’re trading early, and then it’s Aori who shoots. Perrin stuffs it and shoves his foe into the fence. Perrin with a short elbow in close as he grinds away. Aori separates and returns to the center of the Octagon. Perrin lands a glancing jab. Perrin switches stances and steps in with a left hook. Perrin keeps the pressure on and lands a knee in close. He doesn’t give Aori any space and he gets a takedown. Aori hustles to his feet in a hurry and Perrin presses him into the fence, landing a knee to the body. Perrin drops for a double leg and briefly gets Aori to a knee. He keeps the pressure on and lands a couple short punches and a knee in close quarters. Perrin drops low for another takedown, but Aori stuffs it. Perrin creates an opening to land a short elbow. Aori is staying stuck on the fence this round, allowing Perrin to impose his will a little more than in previous frames. Perrin again thinks about a takedown, but Aori isn’t having it. Finally Aori breaks free with about a minute to go. Perrin pressures with punches and eats a counter right. Perrin lands a leg kick and then tries his luck with a spinning back fist. A straight right lands for Aori, but Perrin answers with a front kick down the middle. Aori stuffs an ensuing takedown shot, but he’s pressed into the fence, and Perrin separates and is teeing off with punches in the waning moments of the round. It’s spirited action in the final seconds, and Perrin appears to have Aori reeling as several solid punches land. The Chinese fighter survives the assault, but it’s a strong finish for Perrin.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Perrin (29-28 Aori)

The Official Result
Qileng Aori def. Jay Perrin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Aoriqileng

Angelo picks Aoriqileng (Corey Lang) over Jay Perrin. He describes Lang as a well-rounded fighter with incredible pressure and pace, solid footwork, and a sturdy chin. He notes that Perrin is primarily a wrestler who almost never gets his first takedown and spends time against the cage. Angelo believes Lang's superior striking and ability to work off the cage will earn him his second UFC win. He thinks the -190 line is about right and might try to beat the curve if it moves further.

"i do think corey lang works off the cage lets his hands go and gets his second ufc win here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jay Perrin

Big Brady is siding with the underdog Jay Perrin. He notes that Aoriqileng (Richie Long) is a powerful striker but is hittable and has cardio concerns. Perrin fights with a process, relentlessly pursuing takedowns and has excellent cardio. Brady believes Perrin will take Aoriqileng down, wear on him, and win minutes on the mat across three rounds, likely by decision. He trusts Perrin's game plan and sees a clear path to victory.

Perrin by decision
"i'm actually going to side with the dog here and jay parent i do trust him to come out here and fight with a smart game plan"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jay Perrin

Cody picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and physicality. He notes Aoriqileng has been taken down before and thinks Perrin can replicate that. He hopes the training with top wrestlers pays off.

"i was just spamming the i think he has a wrestling advantage and i'm hoping he's going to take him down"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aoriqileng

Daniel Levi leans toward Aoriqileng (the Mongolian Murderer) but is not confident. He notes that Aoriqileng has one-hitter-quitter power and has faced better competition, but the blueprint to beat him is established (out-volume or out-grapple). Levi is concerned about Aoriqileng's cardio and the effects of travel and elevation if he trained overseas. He thinks if Aoriqileng lands big shots, he wins, but if not, Jay Perrin's solid all-around game could make it competitive.

Mentions that the line opened at -300 and has moved to -145, indicating action on Perrin. Says he sees a case for the underdog but leans with Aoriqileng.
"I'm gonna lean with our Richie land to have the bigger moments land the bigger shots and and Edge this one out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jay Perrin

Jay Perrin is the dog of the night play with 2 units at +132. He expects Perrin to use a grapple-heavy approach similar to Cody Durden's blueprint against Aoriqileng, landing takedowns and controlling the fight on the ground. Perrin has solid durability and has been training at Syndicate MMA, which should help his development. Aoriqileng is the better striker but can be beaten by wrestlers, as seen in the Durden fight.

Dog of the night: 2 units on Perrin moneyline at +132.
"I'm going two units here on j piranha plus 130."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jay Perrin

Paul picks Perrin, citing his wrestling advantage and training with Merab and Aljamain Sterling. He thinks Perrin can take down Aoriqileng and grind out a win. He notes the line has moved and he may have missed the best value.

"i'll pick perrin at minus at plus 125 i think i missed most of the best part of the line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Aoriqileng

The Guru predicts Aoriqileng wins by first-round KO. He describes both fighters exchanging shots, with Perrin taking a big shot and shooting a takedown that Aoriqileng stuffs. He sees Aoriqileng landing elbows, body shots, and a big overhand that rocks Perrin, finishing him against the cage via TKO.

KO in round 1
"aori length by a first round ko"
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 72 of 125 57% 112 of 173 4 of 6 66% 0 1 6:30
Jay Perrin 0 42 of 107 39% 57 of 122 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 19 of 38 50% 31 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:55
Jay Perrin 0 19 of 42 45% 29 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:47
2 Mario Bautista 0 27 of 41 65% 39 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Jay Perrin 0 19 of 45 42% 23 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
3 Mario Bautista 0 26 of 46 56% 42 of 69 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:11
Jay Perrin 0 4 of 20 20% 5 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 72 of 125 57% 43 of 86 17 of 24 12 of 15 39 of 83 29 of 36 4 of 6
Jay Perrin 42 of 107 39% 16 of 67 19 of 30 7 of 10 33 of 95 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 19 of 38 50% 8 of 20 6 of 11 5 of 7 11 of 28 8 of 10 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 19 of 42 45% 8 of 26 10 of 15 1 of 1 13 of 35 6 of 7 0 of 0
2 Mario Bautista 27 of 41 65% 18 of 31 7 of 7 2 of 3 19 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Jay Perrin 19 of 45 42% 8 of 28 7 of 12 4 of 5 17 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Mario Bautista 26 of 46 56% 17 of 35 4 of 6 5 of 5 9 of 23 13 of 17 4 of 6
Jay Perrin 4 of 20 20% 0 of 13 2 of 3 2 of 4 3 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.

"i'm going with khalid i'm going on the side of khalid the very tiny tiny slight underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.

win by third round knockout
"give me batista to win I think he's going to win by like a third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.

"i think he writes the ship here and beats japan and i don't know what the line is i mean if they give me if they give me minus 225 i'm playing it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.

Bautista by decision
"give me mario baltista to win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.

Bautista inside distance (+170)
"bautista inside the distance plus 170. that's what i'm rolling with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Bautista, noting that Perrin doesn't have crippling power, which is Bautista's main concern. He thinks Bautista's aggressive style and wrestling will be too much for Perrin. Paul is waiting for the line but expects Bautista to be a solid favorite.

"i like the fact that this parent guy at least going through his record doesn't seem to have like crippling power because that seems to be our biggest concern with mario batista"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

Angelo picks Khalid Taha (though the matchup is Mario Bautista vs Jay Perrin, the transcript discusses Bautista vs Taha; likely a transcription error). He notes Taha's power and speed match up well against Bautista's volume, and Taha's cardio holds up. He was hoping for underdog odds but the line is essentially even.

"i'm going with khalid i'm going on the side of khalid the very tiny tiny slight underdog here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady picks Mario Bautista confidently, noting Perrin is a grinder on short notice. He believes Bautista's takedown defense and striking are superior, and predicts a third round knockout, giving Perrin his first KO loss.

win by third round knockout
"give me batista to win I think he's going to win by like a third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody picks Bautista, believing he will bounce back from his loss to Trevin Jones. He notes that Bautista is talented with a diverse skill set, and that Perrin lacks knockout power and is primarily a grappler. Cody thinks Bautista can win on the feet or on the ground, and that Perrin's only chance is a submission, which is unlikely. He expects Bautista to be around a -250 favorite.

"i think he writes the ship here and beats japan and i don't know what the line is i mean if they give me if they give me minus 225 i'm playing it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Levi picks Bautista but is uncomfortable laying -350. He notes that Perrin is a solid but unspectacular fighter, and Bautista has good volume. However, he questions how Bautista will bounce back from his first knockout loss. Levi expects Bautista to win a decision.

Bautista by decision
"give me mario baltista to win a decision here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is the much slicker striker and should keep the fight standing against Perrin, who relies on grinding takedowns. Bautista has 70%+ takedown defense and was preparing for a wrestler. Perrin is short notice but in shape; however, Bautista's striking advantage should lead to a finish. Bautista inside distance at +170 is the play.

Bautista inside distance (+170)
"bautista inside the distance plus 170. that's what i'm rolling with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Bautista, noting that Perrin doesn't have crippling power, which is Bautista's main concern. He thinks Bautista's aggressive style and wrestling will be too much for Perrin. Paul is waiting for the line but expects Bautista to be a solid favorite.

"i like the fact that this parent guy at least going through his record doesn't seem to have like crippling power because that seems to be our biggest concern with mario batista"