vs
-222 +155
UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar Next Fight
Age 31
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 245 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Carlos Felipe
4.88 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
5.6 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
72.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Justin Tafa
4.05 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
5.11 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Carlos Felipe
Moneyline
BetWay -222
KO/TKO
BetWay +175
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
BetWay +200
Justin Tafa
Moneyline
BetWay +155
KO/TKO
BetWay +275
Submission
BetWay +2500
Decision
BetWay +500
Carlos Felipe - Fight History
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Oct 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 83 of 172 48% 84 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 73 of 172 42% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 12 of 33 36% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 30 of 74 40% 30 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 29 of 54 53% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 31 of 65 47% 31 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 83 of 172 48% 49 of 133 11 of 15 23 of 24 81 of 170 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 73 of 172 42% 53 of 145 15 of 21 5 of 6 54 of 148 12 of 14 7 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 26 of 51 50% 9 of 32 7 of 9 10 of 10 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 12 of 33 36% 3 of 22 6 of 8 3 of 3 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 28 of 67 41% 17 of 54 3 of 4 8 of 9 27 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 30 of 74 40% 25 of 67 4 of 5 1 of 2 27 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 29 of 54 53% 23 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 28 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 31 of 65 47% 25 of 56 5 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 44 9 of 11 7 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski reluctantly due to his age (42) but believes his new bouncing style, footwork, and jab will allow him to outpoint Felipe. Felipe is a young boxer with good volume and cardio but lacks power. Arlovski can also initiate grappling if needed. Angelo is concerned about Arlovski's chin but thinks he can avoid danger. He likes Arlovski at 8200 in DraftKings and the more more on monkey knife fight.

more more on monkey knife fight
"Andre lowsky's the pick i'm doing it reluctantly because he is 42 at some point he's gonna look 42"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady leans toward Carlos Felipe by decision, citing Felipe's youth, durability, and volume. He notes Arlovski is 42 and inconsistent, sometimes low-volume. However, he dislikes Felipe's close split decisions and showboating. He has no interest in betting this fight.

by decision
"i'm actually going to lean with the younger guy and carlos felipe i don't like it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

Cody picks Arlovski as a slight lean, arguing that Arlovski has become the ultimate gatekeeper who beats young up-and-comers who aren't the real deal. He points out that Felipe's wins have been close split decisions against low-level competition, and that Arlovski's smart game plan of smothering Felipe against the cage and outpointing him at distance should work. He expects the fight to go to decision.

over 2.5 rounds (juiced to -210), fight goes to decision
"as of the gun to my head pick i'm gonna take on geraldowski for now"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Daniel picks Carlos Felipe, noting the odds are close and everyone is on Arlovski. He sees Felipe as a young, improving fighter who likes to bang, and he dismisses the controversial Jake Collier fight as a win for Felipe. He acknowledges Arlovski's veteran savvy and speed but thinks Felipe can win a close, possibly controversial split decision.

Split decision
"give me the other side let me go with carlos felipe be a close maybe even controversial split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

Arlovski will use his outside striking, jabs, and leg kicks to outpoint Felipe, who lacks finishing ability in the UFC. Felipe's success comes in the pocket, but Arlovski will avoid brawling. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Arlovski winning a decision.

Over 2.5 rounds -200, Arlovski by decision +160, fight starts round 3 -225
"i like uh arlowski arlovsky by decision uh over two and a half is the prop that i like the most"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Paul leans toward Felipe edging out a decision based on volume and forward pressure, but admits he's not confident. He notes that Arlovski is the more technical striker but Felipe throws more volume and is durable. He says he's not willing to step in front of it with his money.

"i'm going to lean towards felipe edging out a decision just based on volume and staying and moving forward"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, noting the even odds and Felipe's lack of KO power. He argues that only fighters who obliterate competition beat Arlovski, and Felipe's close fights with Jake Collier and Justin Tafa are red flags. He expects Arlovski's footwork and jab to neutralize Felipe's body shots, leading to a 30-27 decision.

decision win 30-27
"gotta go with andre alofsky here moves his feet very light very bouncy"
WIN vs Jake Collier
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 94 of 192 48% 94 of 192 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jake Collier 0 130 of 281 46% 130 of 281 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 42 of 92 45% 42 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jake Collier 0 34 of 78 43% 34 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Felipe 0 41 of 91 45% 41 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jake Collier 0 54 of 111 48% 54 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 94 of 192 48% 64 of 153 25 of 33 5 of 6 92 of 190 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 130 of 281 46% 86 of 229 20 of 26 24 of 26 127 of 277 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 25 of 43 58% 13 of 26 10 of 14 2 of 3 25 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Collier 42 of 92 45% 23 of 69 4 of 7 15 of 16 42 of 91 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 28 of 58 48% 15 of 44 10 of 11 3 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jake Collier 34 of 78 43% 23 of 65 7 of 8 4 of 5 33 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 41 of 91 45% 36 of 83 5 of 8 0 of 0 39 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jake Collier 54 of 111 48% 40 of 95 9 of 11 5 of 5 52 of 109 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe despite acknowledging it's a close fight. He notes Felipe has better boxing, cardio, and durability, while Collier has a reach and height advantage but has been knocked out three times. He expects a close decision win for Felipe, though he is not overly confident.

Felipe by decision
"I'm going to say that philippe does win a very close decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Cody leans towards Collier as an underdog, citing his impressive cardio and output in his last fight. He thinks Collier's pressure and volume will overwhelm Felipe, who has shown cardio issues and inability to get off the cage. He notes Felipe's lack of power.

"i'm going to give collier a shot here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by knockout in the first round. He emphasizes Felipe's durability, high boxing volume, and youth, contrasting with Jake Collier's questionable win over John Volante. Levi notes that Collier was a former middleweight who ballooned up and that Felipe's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions that Felipe's weakness is the clinch or ground, but Collier is not a strong grappler.

by knockout in the first round
"i'm going with carlos boy felipe by vicious knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Collier has a more varied striking attack with leg kicks, body kicks, and punches, while Felipe is a headhunter who telegraphs his big shots. Collier's durability should allow him to eat Felipe's power, and he can mix in takedowns and clinch work to control the fight. Expect Collier to win via decision, as Felipe's takedown defense is questionable and his output is low.

Collier by decision
"I will continue to go out there and back Collier here at plus money... I think that we'll see an overall mma performance from him... I do like Collier and I'll take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jake Collier

Paul leans towards Collier, noting his improved cardio and striking output in his last fight. He thinks Collier can pressure Felipe and exploit his weaknesses against the cage. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"i think collier is the play here at plus 145"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe based on his superior cardio, boxing, and toughness. He notes Felipe's close fight with Sergey Spivak and his youth and chin advantage. He expects Felipe to win a 29-28 decision, possibly losing one close round to Collier.

"i'm gonna go with carlos felipe getting the better of jake collier here over the three rounds"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 77 of 142 54% 77 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Justin Tafa 0 86 of 148 58% 109 of 171 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 9 of 29 31% 9 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Justin Tafa 0 34 of 53 64% 34 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Felipe 0 33 of 52 63% 33 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 26 of 48 54% 49 of 71 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 77 of 142 54% 46 of 103 28 of 36 3 of 3 64 of 128 13 of 14 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 86 of 148 58% 50 of 107 20 of 24 16 of 17 74 of 133 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 9 of 29 31% 3 of 20 4 of 7 2 of 2 9 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 26 of 47 55% 7 of 27 8 of 9 11 of 11 26 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 35 of 61 57% 22 of 45 12 of 15 1 of 1 28 of 53 7 of 8 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 34 of 53 64% 23 of 40 7 of 9 4 of 4 32 of 50 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 33 of 52 63% 21 of 38 12 of 14 0 of 0 27 of 46 6 of 6 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 26 of 48 54% 20 of 40 5 of 6 1 of 2 16 of 36 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe to win by decision, citing his volume and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Felipe has a good chin and has never been knocked out, while Tafa has power but is less active. He likes the over 1.5 rounds due to Felipe's durability and lack of one-punch knockout power. He thinks if there is a finish, it would be from Tafa, but Felipe's chin should hold.

over 1.5 rounds (likes the play)
"i'm going to take carlos philippe to win a a decision here just by throwing more being more active"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi leans Carlos Felipe due to more experience and volume, though he acknowledges Tafa's power and potential improvement. He notes Felipe's fight with Spivak showed durability, and he mixes body punches. He calls it a possible dollar pass due to heavyweight variance.

"i gotta go with felipe i i just feel like he's got more experience throws more punches"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Felipe has a well-rounded game with good volume, pressure, and durability. He outworked Jorgen de Castro and showed a solid chin. Tafa relies on his power, especially his uppercut, but his defense is poor and he has cardio issues. Felipe's head movement and defensive striking should keep him safe, and his pace will overwhelm Tafa as the fight goes on. Tafa's only path to victory is an early KO, but Felipe has never been knocked out. Felipe by decision or late finish is likely.

Felipe by decision is the primary pick; over 1.5 rounds is also a consideration.
"i still like felipe in this fight minus 200 is not too bad of a line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa, citing Felipe's better cardio, chin, and fight IQ. He expects Felipe to weather Tafa's early power, clinch against the cage, and slow Tafa down for a late second or third round TKO. He notes Tafa's tendency to rush recklessly and his lack of cardio in longer fights.

late second or third round TKO
"i think felipe is going to go out there and get the job done i don't see tough rko in him i see him swinging really hard and philippe clinching up with him pushing him against the cage making him …"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Felipe 0 48 of 100 48% 113 of 174 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:13
Yorgan De Castro 0 78 of 177 44% 88 of 187 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Felipe 0 14 of 27 51% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yorgan De Castro 0 23 of 57 40% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Felipe 0 28 of 57 49% 29 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Yorgan De Castro 0 27 of 75 36% 28 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
3 Carlos Felipe 0 6 of 16 37% 70 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:43
Yorgan De Castro 0 28 of 45 62% 37 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Felipe 48 of 100 48% 24 of 72 8 of 11 16 of 17 48 of 99 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 78 of 177 44% 39 of 127 28 of 38 11 of 12 65 of 161 13 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Felipe 14 of 27 51% 3 of 14 2 of 3 9 of 10 14 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 23 of 57 40% 7 of 35 8 of 14 8 of 8 23 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Felipe 28 of 57 49% 15 of 42 6 of 8 7 of 7 28 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 27 of 75 36% 12 of 55 12 of 16 3 of 4 24 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Carlos Felipe 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yorgan De Castro 28 of 45 62% 20 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0 18 of 33 10 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yorgan De Castro

Big Brady picks Yorgan De Castro to win, likely by knockout. He notes De Castro's hard leg kicks and power, while Felipe is hittable. However, he is concerned about De Castro's low volume and poor performance against Hardy, so he is not confident enough to parlay.

knockout
"give me the castro probably gets a knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Yorgan De Castro

Daniel leans with De Castro, noting his powerful kicks and heavy hands, but is not confident because De Castro gassed after the first round against Greg Hardy. He calls it a dog or pass situation at the betting window due to the price and lack of proven cardio. He acknowledges Felipe's brawling style but sees De Castro's low kicks as a key weapon.

dog or pass situation; mentions De Castro's low kicks; notes Felipe is emotional and talks in the cage
"i'm gonna slightly lean with jorgan nicastro i feel like he kicks like a mule he hits hard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Yorgan De Castro

The host gives the technical advantage to De Castro, citing his leg kicks and striking polish. He expects De Castro to win by third-round TKO after wearing Felipe down. However, he finds the line too wide to bet either side confidently.

"i feel like jorgen could get it done in the third round especially"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Yorgan De Castro

The Guru picks Yorgan De Castro, citing his good kicks and hand speed. He believes De Castro's loss to Greg Hardy was due to a broken foot and that he will land clean on Felipe's chin, predicting a first-round KO.

Prediction: KO round 1
"i'm probably going to be going with jorgen de castro here because although a lot of people seem to remember him just by his big ko"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Decision (majority) (28–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · Jul 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 44 of 121 36% 44 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 73 of 149 48% 165 of 253 3 of 7 42% 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 23 of 59 38% 23 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 20 of 58 34% 20 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:21
3 Serghei Spivac 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Felipe 0 24 of 31 77% 114 of 133 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 44 of 121 36% 30 of 107 14 of 14 0 of 0 44 of 121 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 73 of 149 48% 72 of 148 1 of 1 0 of 0 47 of 121 3 of 3 23 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 23 of 59 38% 14 of 50 9 of 9 0 of 0 23 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 20 of 58 34% 15 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 29 of 73 39% 28 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0 27 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Serghei Spivac 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Felipe 24 of 31 77% 24 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 25
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Serghei Spivac

Big Brady is confident in Spivac despite acknowledging he's not great. He notes Spivac's submission skills (60% of wins by submission) and believes Felipe's layoff (3 years, steroid suspension) and poor gas tank will be decisive. He predicts Spivac will take Felipe down and win a grinding decision.

"I'm going to go Sergey Spivak there to win by a very ugly weird decision there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Felipe to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Felipe is an unknown quantity with power, and that Spivak has looked slow and been taken down in recent fights. He thinks Felipe might come out and bomb on Spivak early. He is curious about Felipe's ground game but believes the power advantage could end the fight quickly.

Felipe by first-round knockout
"i'm gonna go with uh the brazilian here ... i'll say my first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Serghei Spivac

The MMA Guru picks Spivac because he is the bigger guy with better experience, having faced tougher competition like Walt Harris and Tybura. He notes Felipe hasn't fought anyone of Spivac's level and rates Spivac's losses higher than Felipe's wins. He also mentions Spivac has grappling to fall back on and is slightly better on the feet.

"I feel as though spear that's gonna get the job done not just because he's a bigger guy but he's got better experience"
Justin Tafa - Fight History
CANCEL vs Louie Sutherland
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
KO R1 0:35 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tallison Teixeira 1 8 of 9 88% 9 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tallison Teixeira 8 of 9 88% 5 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-135), Tafa (+114)

Round 1
Way high up on the pay-per-view main card, two heavyweights extremely low on the totem pole get this preferred status, likely because someone’s block is about to get knocked off. A combined 100% finish rate, with most of the stoppages from these big men coming in Round 1, means that referee Rich Mitchell should be ready to step in as soon as the opening horn cries. Tafa (7-4, 1 NC; 4-4, 1 NC UFC) recently suffered his first loss in years, while the taller Teixeira (7-0, 0-0 UFC) has never fought beyond 4:40 of a pro fight. The large fists are bopped together before slugging, and Teixeira immediately flashes signs of him kicking. Tafa keeps his guard up to block a powerful head kick that still knocks him back a step, and he adjusts his shorts. Teixeira sets up a right hand to shoot in for a takedown, and he pushes Tafa against the wall in search of the level change. Standing Tafa up, the Brazilian rips a knee to the body and up top with an elbow square on the nose. Tafa collapses like a house of cards, and Teixeira drums his man out with four ferocious punches to the side of the head. Mitchell gets between the two heavyweights to step in, and Teixeira walks off and lets off a booming shout. Tafa looks to Mitchell confusedly, and he complains that he did not even have a moment to defend himself before the fight was called. Just like that, the UFC has another massive heavyweight to contend with, one that still has a 100% stoppage rate with all eight wins in the first round.

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Justin Tafa R1 0:35 via TKO (Knee to the Body and Elbow)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Big Brady calls this a coin flip, as both heavyweights want to stand and bang. He is concerned about Teixeira's poor striking defense, as he was eating shots from Arthur Lopez. He thinks Tafa has a chance to land a big shot and get a first-round knockout. Brady picks Tafa as the underdog.

"give me Justin tafa by first round KO"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Connor also picks Teixeira but is very skeptical. He likes that Teixeira has clever boxing ideas but lacks basic technical fundamentals. He notes that Teixeira is only 25 and a physical monster, which gives him advantages. He thinks Teixeira is good enough to beat Tafa now but will likely lose to more experienced fighters later. He sees Tafa as a counter puncher who needs opponents to make mistakes, and Teixeira might do that, but he still picks Teixeira.

Same odds as Zane.
"I think he's in the right place where I'm going to pick him to beat Justin Tafa."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7" BJJ black belt who has leaned on striking but would be ill-advised to strike with Tafa. He will look to get the fight to the ground, find a dominant position, and open up a submission or ground-and-pound knockout. The official prediction is Teixeira by submission.

submission
"my official prediction will be to Shara by submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Tallison Teixeira

Zane picks Teixeira, noting his size advantage and that he is making real informed decisions as a fighter, even if raw. He thinks Teixeira can neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him at range. He is skeptical of banana-shaped heavyweights but sees Teixeira as tough and able to take a shot. He acknowledges Tafa could knock him out, but believes Teixeira's composure and developing skills give him the edge.

Teixeira opened at -153, currently -133; Tafa opened at +137, currently +119. Zane says odds are reasonable.
"I think he can kind of neutralize Tafa's two dangerous punches and stick him out of range."
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 40 of 61 65% 123 of 176 7 of 12 58% 1 0 10:31
Justin Tafa 0 21 of 43 48% 27 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 12 of 16 75% 35 of 51 4 of 4 100% 0 0 3:58
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 20 of 34 58% 54 of 81 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:45
Justin Tafa 0 9 of 15 60% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 8 of 11 72% 34 of 44 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:48
Justin Tafa 0 6 of 16 37% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 40 of 61 65% 26 of 47 7 of 7 7 of 7 19 of 29 3 of 4 18 of 28
Justin Tafa 21 of 43 48% 15 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 12 of 16 75% 7 of 11 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 6
Justin Tafa 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Karl Williams 20 of 34 58% 15 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 10 of 17
Justin Tafa 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 8 of 11 72% 4 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 5
Justin Tafa 6 of 16 37% 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.

quarter unit bet at +220
"I am actually going to pick Justin taffa in this fight and Yeah Carl may show up and be the prospect that he's supposed to be"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"I'm kind of leaning Williams here um to get takedowns get control time Williams is a good wrestler a very good wrestler she'd have no problem getting takedowns here against tafa"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.

"I feel like Carl Williams gets those takedowns gets them early and often wears them down and maybe gets like a late second or early third round finish."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.

"I really do think Carl I mean I really do think Kyle it could be a one takedown situation and the fight might be over shortly after"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.

Tafa by KO at +185
"I'm going to go with the underdog heavyweight here and TAA for him to... eventually come back and find The Knockout in the second or third round... give me Justin TAA and TAA by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.

"My gut tells me Williams is the play of the week top ticket load up this is easy path of Victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.

TKO via ground and pound
"I'm going with KL Williams over Justin Taffer... TKO to ground and pound early"
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Austen Lane 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 11 of 14 78% 9 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 5
Austen Lane 7 of 14 50% 3 of 9 1 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane
"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165
"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"
LOSS vs Austen Lane
No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout
"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.
"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.
"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.
"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.
"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."
WIN vs Parker Porter
KO (punch) R1 1:06 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Parker Porter 0 7 of 16 43% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 8 of 16 50% 6 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Parker Porter 7 of 16 43% 5 of 13 0 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Angelo picks Parker Porter, defending him against criticism and highlighting his volume striking and footwork. He notes that Justin Tafa has power and a chin but lacks footwork and grappling. He expects Porter to use movement and volume to outpoint Tafa, though he acknowledges the risk of a Tafa knockout. He has a half-unit bet on Porter at +125 and suggests betting on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision as props.

Bet on Tafa by KO and Porter by decision if plus money
"Parker Porter is the pick half a unit money line bet on him at plus 125"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Big Brady calls this a mess of a fight but picks Porter as the minute winner with higher volume and grappling upside. He notes Tafa has power and could knock Porter out, but thinks Porter's cardio and wrestling give him the edge. He predicts a decision win for Porter.

"give me the guy that I feel like and win this fight across 15 minutes give me Parker by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Cody picks Porter as a dog, citing Tafa's one-dimensional kickboxing and poor performances against Jared Vanderaa. He notes Porter has multiple paths: wrestling takedowns and top control, or volume striking. He mentions Porter's wins over Josh Parisian and Chase Sherman show he can land heavy volume. He thinks Porter by decision is a good prop at +350.

Porter by decision at +350
"I would take Porter to to drop on what you were saying probably Park reporter by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa hesitantly, citing his power and athletic potential. He notes that Porter is durable but gets hurt badly in every fight, and Tafa has the power to finish. Connor acknowledges that Porter's pace and volume could overwhelm Tafa if he doesn't land early, but he's willing to take a flyer on Tafa's explosiveness. He also mentions that Tafa has shown flashes of improvement.

"I think i'm gonna take the flyer on justin toffa... I just get the feeling that toffa has the ability to grow by leaps and bounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Porter has good footwork, combinations, and a sneaky wrestling game. Tafa has huge power but poor footwork and can be outpointed, as seen against Vandera. Porter can mix in takedowns to control Tafa on the ground. Tafa's takedown defense is untested (only faced two takedown attempts). Porter's durability and cardio should allow him to outwork Tafa over 15 minutes. However, Tafa's power is a constant threat.

"I still think that this is a spot where Parker Porter can go out there and do what he does best makes the martial arts as effortlessly as he does and put together a solid body of work over 15 …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter but is not fully committed. He sees the fight as a low-level heavyweight bout likely going to decision, and considers Porter by decision at +350. He notes Tafa's lack of volume and Porter's ability to outwork him. He may dabble on the decision prop.

Porter by decision at +350
"I can see the argument for Porter... I think this is a low level sloppy heavyweight fight probably goes 15 minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa over Parker Porter, noting Tafa's power and youth. He believes Tafa will catch Porter in a scrappy fight and finish him by KO at the end of round one. He dismisses Porter's wins as unimpressive and notes his age and damage taken.

first round KO
"I'm gonna go with Justin tafa getting this one done via Chao Parker Porter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Parker Porter

Zane picks Porter, citing his consistency and ability to survive early storms. He notes that Porter is a pace fighter who can take a shot and come back, while Tafa is low-output and one-dimensional. Zane acknowledges that Porter will likely get hurt badly, but he trusts Porter's durability and experience to grind out a win. He also mentions that Porter's jab and volume will be key.

"I'll pick parker porter because I don't care that much... I think being a lumbering pace fighter who yes gets hurt but is definitely like... gotten pretty damn good at surviving."
KO (head kick) R1 1:53 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Tafa 1 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Harry Hunsucker 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Tafa 5 of 10 50% 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Harry Hunsucker 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa but thinks the odds are nuts. He believes Tafa should be a slight favorite around -150, not -400. He notes Tafa's chin is good and he has leg kicks, but Hunsucker is dangerous with his blitzing style. Angelo considers a small sprinkle on Hunsucker because it's heavyweight and both hit hard. He ultimately goes with Tafa but is not confident.

small sprinkle on Harry Hunsucker (mentioned as possibility)
"i'm gonna go top of here but i i want to be as clear as possible these odds are nuts"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round knockout, citing Hunsucker's terrible gas tank (about 2.5 minutes) and tendency to fold. He notes Tafa's 100% finish rate and leg kick potential. He acknowledges Hunsucker could pull off an upset if he lands early, but expects Tafa to roll through him. He compares it to the Jordan Wright-Silva fight.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take justin toffee here to get the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Cody is confident in Tafa, citing Hunsucker's poor record and lack of durability. He notes that Hunsucker has never been past the first round and has been knocked out in all his losses. Tafa has shown he can go three rounds and has better striking and cardio. Cody expects Tafa to win by KO early, but he doesn't like the -330 price for betting.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I'll pick I'll pick tough up but I'm not betting that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa to win, but advises caution at -310. He describes Tafa as having a Mark Hunt-like style with a big left hook and good leg kicks. Levi believes Tafa is more durable and has better hands than Hunsucker, who comes to brawl but is less skilled. He expects Tafa to get a first-round knockout, but notes that Tafa has underperformed in some fights. Levi sees Hunsucker as a gatekeeper brought in to get prospects back on track.

Tafa by KO in round 1
"Give me Justin Tafa to get it done... maybe he gets that first round knockout."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Jacob picks Justin Tafa but plays the over 1.5 rounds at +135. He thinks Hunsucker will pace himself to avoid getting finished early, and Tafa is patient, leading to a slow, boring striking affair. Jacob believes Tafa will outpoint Hunsucker. He also mentions that Hunsucker's history suggests a first-round finish, but he expects a different game plan from Hunsucker to prove he belongs in the UFC.

over 1.5 rounds at +135
"i think i might play the over one and a half for plus 135 on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert pick date unknown

The host does not pick a winner but expects a first-round finish. He bet 2 units on under 1.5 rounds at -190, believing either fighter could get knocked out. He also mentions Hunsucker by KO at +1000 as a stab.

under 1.5 rounds (-190), 2 units; Hunsucker by KO (+1000)
"I personally have a play on the under one and a half i took two units at -190"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Paul is very confident in Tafa, calling Hunsucker a low-level fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Hunsucker's all first-round finishes (wins and losses) and poor competition. Tafa has better experience and cardio. Paul thinks Tafa will win by KO and mentions the under 1.5 rounds at -165 as a good bet.

Under 1.5 rounds -165
"I think he's going to more often than not catch harry before it carry he catches him if this thing goes to a second round which I don't think it's going to"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru picks Justin Tafa to win by first-round KO. He notes Tafa has shown improvements in cardio and kicking, and he expects Tafa to chop at Hunsucker's calf like Tai Tuivasa did. He thinks Hunsucker has quick hands but Tafa's power and well-roundedness will prevail. He predicts a body kick followed by a counter shot for the KO.

first round KO
"i'm gonna go with justin tafa not as easy of a pick as some people might think"
LOSS vs Jared Vanderaa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Big Brady picks Carlos Felipe to win by decision, citing his volume and cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Felipe has a good chin and has never been knocked out, while Tafa has power but is less active. He likes the over 1.5 rounds due to Felipe's durability and lack of one-punch knockout power. He thinks if there is a finish, it would be from Tafa, but Felipe's chin should hold.

over 1.5 rounds (likes the play)
"i'm going to take carlos philippe to win a a decision here just by throwing more being more active"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Daniel Levi leans Carlos Felipe due to more experience and volume, though he acknowledges Tafa's power and potential improvement. He notes Felipe's fight with Spivak showed durability, and he mixes body punches. He calls it a possible dollar pass due to heavyweight variance.

"i gotta go with felipe i i just feel like he's got more experience throws more punches"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

Felipe has a well-rounded game with good volume, pressure, and durability. He outworked Jorgen de Castro and showed a solid chin. Tafa relies on his power, especially his uppercut, but his defense is poor and he has cardio issues. Felipe's head movement and defensive striking should keep him safe, and his pace will overwhelm Tafa as the fight goes on. Tafa's only path to victory is an early KO, but Felipe has never been knocked out. Felipe by decision or late finish is likely.

Felipe by decision is the primary pick; over 1.5 rounds is also a consideration.
"i still like felipe in this fight minus 200 is not too bad of a line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Felipe

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Felipe over Justin Tafa, citing Felipe's better cardio, chin, and fight IQ. He expects Felipe to weather Tafa's early power, clinch against the cage, and slow Tafa down for a late second or third round TKO. He notes Tafa's tendency to rush recklessly and his lack of cardio in longer fights.

late second or third round TKO
"i think felipe is going to go out there and get the job done i don't see tough rko in him i see him swinging really hard and philippe clinching up with him pushing him against the cage making him work working knees to the fire against a cage slowing …"