Career Averages - Punahele Soriano
Career Averages - Duško Todorović
Punahele Soriano
Duško Todorović
Punahele Soriano - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 43 of 73 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 66 of 123 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 5:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 21 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 10 of 12 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 26 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 19 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | 38 of 67 | 56% | 16 of 42 | 21 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 40 of 92 | 43% | 29 of 79 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 74 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 31 of 56 | 55% | 13 of 37 | 17 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 52 | 32% | 14 of 47 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Ramiz Brahimaj | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 16 of 28 | 57% | 13 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing his power, wrestling credentials, and ability to stay safe on top. He acknowledges Ramiz Brahimaj's submission threat but believes Soriano's wrestling and striking will prevail. He notes the line has flipped but remains confident in Soriano.
Big Brady picks Ramiz Brahimaj to defeat Punahele Soriano, citing Brahimaj's recent underdog wins and Soriano's poor takedown defense and cardio. He notes Soriano has success early but fades, and Brahimaj is tough and has good submissions. He predicts Brahimaj will survive the early storm, mix in takedowns, and submit Soriano in the second round. He references Soriano's losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and Nick Maximov as evidence of his vulnerability.
Cody thinks Brahimaj's jiu-jitsu and hometown crowd give him an edge. He notes Soriano's inconsistency and cardio issues. He expects Brahimaj to win by submission or decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano. He notes that Soriano's recent wins are more trustworthy and indicative of a step forward, while Brahimaj's wins are against fighters with no defense. Connor also mentions that if Court McGee could grind Brahimaj, Soriano can too.
The host leans towards Soriano, noting his advantage on the feet with power and aggression, and his improved cardio since dropping to welterweight. He believes Soriano can outstrike and outgrapple Brahimaj if his gas tank holds up. However, he is not betting because Brahimaj has proven cardio and could make Soriano work hard, and both fighters are evolving, making it difficult to predict which version shows up.
James picks Ramiz Brahimaj, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and front choke series. He notes that Soriano's wrestling could put him in danger of submissions, and that Brahimaj is the better striker over 15 minutes. James believes Brahimaj will catch Soriano in a front headlock and submit him.
Brahimaj has improved his cardio and takedown defense since moving to Chicago, and he is more calculated now. Soriano is a power puncher but relies on wrestling to grind out wins, and he doesn't threaten submissions. Brahimaj's grappling defense should be good enough to keep it standing or scramble, and he can catch Soriano in a submission. The under 2.5 rounds also makes sense.
Paul thinks Soriano at 170 is a different beast with better cardio and power. He acknowledges Brahimaj's grappling but thinks Soriano's wrestling and strength will be enough. He calls it a pick'em and leans Soriano.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his nasty knockout power, solid chin, and physicality. He believes Soriano won't be lost on the feet and can avoid Brahimaj's guillotine. He notes Brahimaj's wins are over lesser competition and that Soriano has dominated grapplers before. He predicts a TKO finish in round one or two.
Zane picks Soriano, believing he will bully Brahimaj with his athleticism and power. He notes that Soriano has options and is too dangerous. If Soriano chooses to wrestle, he might get caught in a submission, but that's a thin chance. Zane trusts Soriano's recent wins more than Brahimaj's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 39 of 54 | 72% | 163 of 200 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 1 | 1 | 12:35 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 34 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 21 of 30 | 70% | 82 of 105 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 21 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 34 of 44 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 4:13 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 47 of 51 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 39 of 54 | 72% | 38 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 49 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 9 of 12 | 75% | 2 of 2 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 21 of 30 | 70% | 21 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 27 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 6 of 7 | 85% | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-245), Veretennikov (+200)
Round 1
Two knockout-inclined welterweights will ply their trades against one another with continued preliminary action. A win for Soriano (11-4, 5-4 UFC) would keep him above the dreaded .500 line in the promotion, while Kazakhstan’s Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) needs to get past “Story Time” to reach that level. If a brawl ensues, referee Marc Goddard will keep a lid on it as best he can. Before that prospective slugfest, they tap gloves.
Soriano takes right to the center of the cage, hopping back to avoid a stomp kick to the knee and springing ahead to fire off a body kick. He aims a second to the same spot, and when Veretennikov counters, Soriano charges with a double and takes Veretennikov off his feet. Veretennikov bounces off and up in the air, and with Soriano on his knees, he measures and blasts the Hawaiian with a mighty knee to the ribs. Veretennikov settles down and wraps up a guillotine choke with his left arm, and when Soriano lifts him up and slams him down, the choke briefly tightens. Soriano sits up and breaks out of the choke, and he starts raining down left hands. Veretennikov attacks back with his own offense from below, but the power differential is drastic from that position. Soriano keeps pounding on his opponent, briefly trapping his foe’s right arm beneath his knee to open up more shots.
Soriano switches to hammering Veretennikov with elbow after unanswered elbow, and his position tying Veretennikov up while not keeping him flat is pinning Veretennikov to the floor. Soriano’s left hands continue to bludgeon the Kazakhstan native, and even though Goddard is not anywhere close to considering stepping in, these consistent blows are draining him. Soriano holds Veretennikov down with his left arm and beats on his ribs with his right, and the ground-and-pound may not be devastating but it is effective as can be. He continues to drive punches down, developing a pattern similar to iambic pentameter in that he lands a soft blow and then a powerful one, and alternates them like ba-dum ba-dum as the sound of the impact echoes around the ring. The one-sided round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 2
It takes Soriano 15 seconds to commit to a takedown, and he lifts Veretennikov up in the air and deposits him gingerly to the mat. Veretennikov defends instinctively with a guillotine choke, and Soriano uses this opportunity to trap him with a Von Preux shoulder choke. Veretennikov offers a thumbs-up to show he is fine, and he slowly manages to wriggle his neck out of danger. Soriano reintroduces himself with a blistering elbow from above, and even though he has his own leg stuck between Veretennikov’s, he seems to prefer this position lording over his adversary with ground strikes galore. Veretennikov does what he can to tie up Soriano and slow the beating, and Soriano lowers himself down to pursue an arm-triangle choke.
Veretennikov does not fall victim to the submission, so Soriano hacks at him with a pair of mean-spirited elbows. Soriano’s left hand keeps landing until Veretennikov wills himself to his feet, through sheer horsepower. Soriano trips and Veretennikov pounces, wrapping up a rear-naked choke and tightening it quickly. Soriano explodes out of the bad position and turns the Kazakh over, where he gets back into his groove of methodical ground attacks. Veretennikov flirts with an armbar to keep Soriano honest, but this only allows Soriano to hammer him with four or five long punches. Veretennikov sits up and gets in a position to aim a knee to the sternum, and he drives one or two in before the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano
Round 3
Hands are clapped to open Round 3, and Veretennikov strikes first with a punch to the body. That one strike is all he gets off before Soriano darts in to pursue a takedown. The two twirl around while Soriano hangs onto the single, and Veretennikov grips a guillotine around the side of the head to further threaten. Soriano lifts and slams Veretennikov with an exclamation point, freeing himself from the choke and pushing his hand off Veretennikov’s face. One of Veretennikov’s coaches claims that Soriano is out from the guillotine that Veretennikov is still holding, and Goddard tells that coach to knock it off as Soriano is fine. In fact, the Hawaiian postures up a moment or two later to get out of the sub, and he works the body and head when establishing himself. Goddard asks for more, so Soriano punches Veretennikov in the face.
Soriano stacks Veretennikov up, who is searching for an armbar or otherwise using a high guard to control or attack something. Soriano steps over easily to the side to break up the setup, and he pounds an elbow down on the jaw. As Soriano slows down, Goddard asks for more activity from the fighters. Not wanting to let them just sit around and smooch—figuratively speaking, of course—he stands the fighters up. Soriano takes a deep breath and shoots for a single from afar, and Veretennikov jumps for a guillotine choke and wraps it up while standing. Soriano’s eyes go wide as he is pulled down on top of the Kazakh, and Veretennikov squeezes the choke with all his might. Soriano signals thumbs-up as he slithers his neck out of danger, and he concludes the match with emphatic elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-26 Soriano)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Soriano (30-27 Soriano)
The Official Result
Punahele Soriano def. Nikolay Veretennikov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo trusts that Punahele Soriano will use his wrestling, as a Division III All-American, to win, despite his tendency to sometimes just strike. He notes Soriano has heavy hands but poor takedown defense, while Veretennikov is a powerful striker who can be taken down. His concern is that Soriano might abandon wrestling after a recent knockout win. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady likes Soriano, especially at welterweight, where he seems like a different animal with improved cardio and strength. He notes that Veretennikov has awful cardio and a poor ground game, and that Soriano can wrestle him, get him tired, and finish him on the mat. He predicts a second-round TKO for Soriano.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Soriano but noting that it depends on whether Soriano fights well. He hopes to see a more aggressive, active, and wrestling-minded Soriano, as seen in his welterweight debut, but acknowledges that his previous opponents (Miguel Baeza and Eros Medich) were not reliable tests.
Soriano is expected to put his power on Veretennikov early, and if he doesn't finish within the first minute and a half, he will resort to wrestling and grind out a decision win.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Punahele Soriano, comparing him to Francisco Prado who gave Veretennikov trouble. He notes Soriano's power, pressure, and ability to close distance, while Veretennikov stands too upright and struggles with aggressive fighters. He predicts a first-round KO.
Zane picks Soriano because the welterweight move has made him feel bigger, stronger, and more confident, allowing him to wrestle more effectively. He notes that Veretennikov is a bad wrestler who gave up takedowns to Francisco Prado, and Soriano should be able to exploit that. However, he cautions that Soriano is prone to inactivity and single-idea offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 13 of 17 | 76% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Uroš Medić | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 13 of 17 | 76% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 |
| Uroš Medić | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Uroš Medić, citing his superior striking, speed, and power. He notes that Punahele Soriano's only path to victory is wrestling, but Medić's takedown defense is a concern. However, he believes Medić is the better striker and will land clean shots. He has Medić in a parlay with César Almeida, though he expresses some nervousness about the bet.
Big Brady sees a clear path for Soriano: take Medić down. He notes Medić's takedown defense and ground game are questionable, and Soriano looked dominant at welterweight against Baeza, landing 331 strikes. He worries Soriano might strike instead of wrestle, but believes if he uses his wrestling, he can win by TKO or decision. He picks Soriano to win, possibly by TKO via ground and pound.
Cody picks Medić, questioning Soriano's one good performance at 170 against a shot Miguel Baeza. He believes Medić's power and pace will cause Soriano to fatigue. He notes Medić's finishing ability and Soriano's history of gassing.
Connor picks Soriano because he believes Soriano's wrestling and physicality will be effective at welterweight. He notes that Soriano showed a grinding game against Miguel Baeza, and Medić is bad at dealing with sustained pressure and takedowns. While Soriano is uncreative and has shown little improvement, Connor thinks his size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight. He acknowledges it's not a smart pick but sees a path.
Daniel notes Medić is more technically sound on the feet with better volume and diversity, while Soriano has big power in his left hand but shaky in-between and cardio concerns at welterweight. He thinks Medić will win the minutes, but Soriano could land a big shot or use wrestling. He picks Medić but is not interested in betting.
Lucrative James picks Uroš Medić to win, citing Medić's superior striking and cleaner kickboxing. He acknowledges Soriano's wrestling advantage and power, but believes Medić's skill on the feet will prevail over three rounds. He notes Soriano's cardio issues and that Medić has decent takedown defense. He also mentions that Soriano moved down from 185 and Medić moved up from 155, but still favors Medić's higher ceiling.
Soriano is a solid wrestler as shown in his welterweight debut against Miguel Baeza. He will get to his grappling, keep Medić on his back, and grind out a decision win as long as he doesn't get finished early.
Paul picks Soriano as a plus-money underdog, citing his impressive wrestling at 170 in his last fight. He expects fireworks and has bet under 1.5 rounds. He acknowledges Medić's danger but likes Soriano's path via takedowns.
The Guru picks Medić, noting his size as a big lightweight at welterweight, his KO of Tim Means, and his better technique and speed. He criticizes Soriano's recent performances, including losses to Dustin Stoltzfus and a poor showing against Miguel Baeza. He predicts an early TKO for Medić.
Zane picks Medić because he is a more dangerous finisher and expects Soriano to struggle to impose his game plan. Medić's movement and kicks could frustrate Soriano, who is hittable and plotting. Zane notes that Soriano's win over Baeza was more about Baeza's poor performance than Soriano's skill. Medić's ability to keep the fight in open space and avoid being clinched gives him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 144 of 175 | 82% | 331 of 394 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 42 of 59 | 71% | 54 of 80 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 49 of 59 | 83% | 93 of 111 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 53 of 57 | 92% | 184 of 203 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 144 of 175 | 82% | 129 of 158 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 136 of 163 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 42 of 59 | 71% | 40 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 49 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 49 of 59 | 83% | 43 of 52 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 48 of 58 | |
| 3 | Punahele Soriano | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Miguel Baeza | 53 of 57 | 92% | 46 of 50 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 52 of 56 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano, citing Miguel Baeza's three-fight losing streak and two-year layoff, with his last two losses being knockouts. He notes that Soriano has power and wrestling, and while he has been losing, he has been active. He thinks Baeza's chin issues and ring rust are too much to overlook, and Soriano's power could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza to win by second-round submission. He notes that Baeza is more well-rounded and skilled, but his chin is worrisome after knockout losses. He expects Baeza to survive the first round and then take over as Soriano gasses. He calls it a 'club and sub' finish.
Cody picks Baeza, noting that Soriano has poor cardio and takedown defense, and is moving down to welterweight after struggling at middleweight. Baeza is a BJJ black belt who has been focusing on grappling during his layoff. Cody believes if Baeza can survive the first round, he can take Soriano down and dominate. He expects Baeza to win by decision or submission.
Daniel leans Baeza as the better talent with a nasty jab and calf kicks, but questions his chin and confidence after recent knockout losses. He notes Soriano has power and could knock Baeza out if Baeza's defense is poor. He calls it a pass due to too many question marks.
Jacob picks Miguel Baeza, disagreeing with Angelo. He argues that even at 60-70% of his former self, Baeza has the tools to box up Soriano, who is coming down in weight. He notes that Baeza is fast and has good grappling, and Soriano lacks the speed to counter him. Jacob has placed a big bet on Baeza, believing he will style on Soriano.
Baeza is more complete with his calf kicking and striking, and Soriano's weight cut to welterweight may slow him down. Baeza should chip away and win a decision, but his durability and long layoff are concerns. Soriano has early KO power, so a hedge on Soriano by KO is possible. Leaning Baeza but likely passing.
Paul picks Soriano by knockout in round one, noting that Baeza has been knocked out before and Soriano has power. He acknowledges Soriano's cardio issues but thinks the move to welterweight could help. Paul bet Soriano by knockout at plus 300 and round one knockout at plus 675, expecting an early finish.
The Guru picks Baeza because he thinks Soriano is a middleweight moving down to welterweight, which won't work. He notes Baeza is a big welterweight with reach advantage and won't be bullied. He mentions Baeza took Colby Covington to the third round and didn't get smoked early, so Soriano's power shouldn't be a problem. He predicts a second or third-round finish for Baeza.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 39 of 107 | 36% | 39 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 82 of 128 | 64% | 82 of 128 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 35 of 62 | 56% | 35 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 21 of 61 | 34% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 47 of 66 | 71% | 47 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 39 of 107 | 36% | 35 of 101 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 98 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 82 of 128 | 64% | 56 of 101 | 14 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 76 of 120 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 35 of 62 | 56% | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 34 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 21 of 61 | 34% | 17 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 47 of 66 | 71% | 34 of 52 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 59 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Soriano (-165), Kopylov (+140)
Round 1
This middleweight scrap may not last long, and referee Kerry Hatley will need to keep his head on a swivel. Dueling 89% finish rates for Soriano (9-2, 3-2 UFC) and Kopylov (9-2, 1-2 UFC) crash into each other like ships in a storm, although neither man has ever been stopped by strikes. Before the fists meet faces, the fists bump into one another respectfully. Kopylov is quick to back off as Soriano comes out guns blazing, with a pair of overhand rights getting his attention in a hurry. “Story Time” suddenly goes for a double, and when that fails, he wings a huge left hand. Kopylov blocks the worst of the haymakers flying towards him, but Soriano is still gunning for him with that big left. Kopylov sticks out a jab to disrupt the swinging hammers, sticking and moving to make Soriano hit air. Kopylov chops at the lead calf and blocks high as he expects a big left aimed at him. He is correct, as it collides off the guard and he resets. Kopylov sticks out several jabs, chaining them into a right hand, and Soriano grits his teeth and slugs right back. Kopylov is more content to touch while Soriano is swinging for the bleachers, and this allows Kopylov to see the strikes coming and block the dangerous ones. The Russian pierces out a jab, splitting the guard repeatedly and stifling the worst of the worst that is fired his direction. The jab continues to find its home, a piston connecting with the nose again and again. Soriano whiffs on a bomb and bounces off the cage wall, and he takes a deep breath just three minutes into the match. Soriano winds up and misses on another overhand left, with Kopylov composed and moving comfortably. Kopylov chips at the leg and paws out jabs, and he shuts down a tackling double-leg entry from the Hawaiian. Kopylov leaves a jab out too long, and Soriano reaches him with a huge left. When Soriano advances, Kopylov turns the tables on him with his own tackle of a takedown that sets his man down briefly. When Soriano scrambles, Kopylov just lets him back up, and the two get back after it on the feet. Kopylov sticks “Story Time” with a pair of punches, and he backs off until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The middleweights touch ‘em up to start, and Kopylov decides to lead the dance initially. With a fast chain of punches, he knocks Soriano back, and forces Soriano to attack from a different angle. Soriano slows himself down and starts loading up on single shots, but this lets Kopylov pop him again and again with a stinging jab. Soriano swats the jab out of the way to close in and fire, and he unloads a fastball of a left hand that just misses the mark by a matter of millimeters. Kopylov spins to crack the body like a whip with a spinning back kick, and Soriano takes it flush and groans. Soriano lets them close in so that he can pound a few uppercuts on the nose, and this marks up Kopylov’s nose. Kopylov keeps his right hand out, further disrupting the Hawaiian and frustrating him. Kopylov dogs body shots, and he rips a kick to the ribs as Soriano winces in pain. The Russian knows the body is the weakness, and he targets the majority of his blows at the midsection. Soriano, with every bit of his remaining energy, swings recklessly and keeps Kopylov honest enough to not put him away.
Kopylov takes a breath, and he smashes his shin in the Hawaiian's liver. Soriano is barely on his feet, frozen in time momentarily as he cannot even take a breath. Kopylov chains together a long salvo of punches, and Soriano shells up and bends over but does not go down. Knowing that there is nothing more Soriano has to offer, Hatley mercifully halts the fight.
With that sterling performance in the books, Kopylov has now become the first fighter to ever finish the durable Hawaiian.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Punahele Soriano R2 3:19 via TKO (Body Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Soriano because he has more ways to win, including wrestling and power. He notes Kopylov is the better striker but Soriano's wrestling could be the difference. However, he doesn't trust Soriano to execute and advises not betting. He mentions Soriano's takedown defense issues and Kopylov's vulnerability to takedowns.
Big Brady picks Roman Kopylov as an upset, citing Kopylov's technical striking advantage and better cardio. He notes that Soriano has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and if the fight stays on the feet, Kopylov has more tools and body kicks. He worries about Soriano's power but trusts Kopylov to outwork him as the fight goes on, predicting a decision win. He acknowledges Soriano could knock out Kopylov but leans toward Kopylov's consistency.
Cody leans towards Kopylov, agreeing that Soriano's cardio is a major issue. He notes Soriano fades after 7.5 minutes and doesn't wrestle due to gas concerns. He sees Kopylov as live if the fight goes the distance, and mentions a possible Kopylov by decision bet.
Connor picks Soriano because he is insanely tough and has many ways to win, including powerful striking and a solid wrestling background. He notes that Soriano can soak up damage and has a good left hand and low kicks. However, Connor expresses concern that Soriano doesn't always use his wrestling and can be inconsistent, but believes his toughness and power will carry him against Kopylov's predictable boxing.
Jacob picks Kopylov as a live underdog, believing he is the better striker and may even wrestle. He notes Soriano's poor defensive wrestling and Kopylov's toughness. He thinks Soriano can't be trusted and Kopylov has good value. He mentions Kopylov's camp and takedown defense.
Paul picks Kopylov as an underdog, citing Soriano's poor cardio and reluctance to wrestle. He notes Kopylov's improved performance against Dichirico and believes he can outwork Soriano with leg kicks and combinations. He mentions a possible Kopylov by decision prop at +430.
Zane picks Soriano because he is too tough and has too many other options, including wrestling and low kicks. He notes that Kopylov is a predictable boxer who struggles with opponents who can mix in kicks and takedowns. Zane also points out that Soriano's wrestling background gives him an edge if he chooses to use it, and that Kopylov's lack of defensive wrestling is a liability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 17 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 13 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 16 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 1 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punahele Soriano | 17 of 35 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Punahele Soriano | 11 of 28 | 39% | 3 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Punahele Soriano | 6 of 7 | 85% | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Dalcha Lungiambula | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dalcha Lungiambula, citing his power, takedown defense, and durability. He notes Soriano's poor takedown defense and that Lungiambula looked great in his last fight before a bad decision. He placed a half-unit moneyline bet and plans an inside the distance decision no action bet.
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by decision. He notes that both fighters have poor cardio, but Soriano's is slightly better. He thinks Soriano wins the first round and may take over later. He mentions that Soriano has better finishing ability but expects the fight to go to decision due to both fighters' durability. He does not recommend betting Soriano at -275.
Cody picks Soriano but with low confidence, noting that both fighters are untrustworthy. He acknowledges Soriano's durability and power, but also his poor wrestling and cardio. He believes Soriano's chin and training at a world-class gym give him an edge, but he won't bet this fight.
Daniel Levi leans Punahele Soriano but is not confident at the -225 price. He notes both fighters have knockout power and that Soriano is cleaner and more well-rounded, but Lungiambula is dangerous. He considers it closer than the odds suggest and wants more info on sparring sessions before committing.
Paul also picks Soriano but with hesitation, citing Lungiambula's tendency to gas out and make mistakes. He notes that Soriano has a good chin and has shown improvement. However, he agrees the -240 price is too steep and will not bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano over Dalcha Lungiambula, citing Soriano's toughness and power. He notes Lungiambula's poor cardio and that Soriano is difficult to finish. He predicts Soriano will catch Lungiambula with body shots and knees in the clinch, leading to a second-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 0 | 45 of 63 | 71% | 74 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 60 of 82 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 1 | 1 | 8:45 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 15 of 21 | 71% | 22 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 11 of 12 | 91% | 31 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Maximov | 45 of 63 | 71% | 28 of 46 | 17 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 23 |
| Punahele Soriano | 29 of 45 | 64% | 19 of 33 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nick Maximov | 15 of 21 | 71% | 11 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 |
| Punahele Soriano | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nick Maximov | 21 of 32 | 65% | 16 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Punahele Soriano | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nick Maximov | 9 of 10 | 90% | 1 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Punahele Soriano | 11 of 12 | 91% | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Angelo picks Punahele Soriano as a striker with power. He notes Soriano's takedown defense is untested but his striking is far superior to Maximov's. Maximov is a BJJ specialist with raw striking and okay takedowns. Angelo expects Soriano to win on the feet, but warns he gassed against Allen. If Soriano gasses, Maximov could take over, making it a live bet situation.
Cody agrees with Soriano but is hesitant due to Soriano's suspect cardio. He notes that Maximov has a wrestling background and could take the fight to the ground, where he has slick transitions. However, Soriano has the striking advantage and power. Cody worries that if Maximov gets an early takedown, Soriano may gas, but he still leans Soriano.
Daniel Levi picks Punahele Soriano, emphasizing his All-American wrestling background which should allow him to stuff Maximov's takedowns. He notes Soriano has faced tougher competition like Dusko Todorovic and Brendan Allen, while Maximov is less tested. Levi expects Soriano to land big shots after stuffing takedowns, potentially getting a finish. He respects Maximov's toughness but sees Soriano as the more proven fighter.
Lock of the Night picks Soriano, expecting him to defend takedowns and land enough on the feet to win a decision. He notes Soriano's wrestling background and power, but questions his durability if extended. He thinks Maximov will close distance irresponsibly and leave himself open to shots, but Soriano may not knock him out. He likes Soriano by decision at +350 and the over 1.5 rounds.
Paul thinks Soriano has the striking and power advantage, and if he keeps the fight upright, he will likely finish Maximov. He notes that Maximov's stand-up is a work in progress and that his grappling transitions looked solid but he struggled with cardio. Paul is concerned about Soriano's cardio but still picks him because Maximov's takedown entries may not be good enough.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, criticizing Nick Maximov's lack of athleticism and power. He expects Soriano to stuff takedowns and land a big overhand right, knocking Maximov out in the first round. He references Maximov's fight with Cody Brundage where he did no damage, and calls the matchup a 'mismatch'.
Duško Todorović - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Daniel Medina | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 27 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Daniel Medina | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 27 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Daniel Medina | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 16 of 24 | 66% | 10 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Daniel Medina | 9 of 25 | 36% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 16 of 24 | 66% | 10 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Dusko because he is the more well-rounded guy and has fought better competition. He calls the odds 'stupid as hell' and says there's no way Dusko wins 74 out of 100 times. He notes Medina is a ground-and-pound fighter with decent striking but not particularly fast or powerful, while Dusko is a technical striker with power and takedowns, though his chin is questionable. He says neither guy is very good.
Big Brady picks Todorović despite his poor chin and striking defense, because Medina is even worse. He notes Todorović has good wrestling and ground-and-pound, while Medina has 31% takedown defense and no ground game. He predicts Todorović wins by second-round TKO via ground-and-pound.
Despite Todorovic's durability issues, the host sees this as a winnable matchup. He expects Todorovic to utilize his grappling, control Medina from top position, and eventually secure a submission.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Duško Todorović, noting he is a -325 favorite in 2025, which he sees as a clear sign. He dismisses José Medina as lacking power, athleticism, grappling, and jiu-jitsu, calling him a 'flabby big Latin guy' who shouldn't be in the UFC. He believes Todorović is more well-rounded and a better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Reese | 0 | 50 of 108 | 46% | 73 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 35 of 65 | 53% | 73 of 109 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 | 1 | 5:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zachary Reese | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 19 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 31 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 1 | 3:01 | |
| 2 | Zachary Reese | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 25 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 3 | Zachary Reese | 0 | 27 of 67 | 40% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Reese | 50 of 108 | 46% | 21 of 72 | 20 of 23 | 9 of 13 | 43 of 98 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 35 of 65 | 53% | 22 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zachary Reese | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 10 of 15 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Zachary Reese | 17 of 30 | 56% | 7 of 19 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 8 of 16 | 50% | 2 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Zachary Reese | 27 of 67 | 40% | 11 of 46 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 9 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 17 of 34 | 50% | 12 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Zachary Reese but is hesitant due to Reese's tendency to play jiu-jitsu off his back and give up positions. He acknowledges Reese's power and size advantages and Todorović's questionable chin, but worries Reese might make bad decisions. He rates it as medium confidence on the website.
Big Brady fades Zachary Reese despite being a favorite, citing Reese's poor takedown defense (33%) and tendency to get finished. He notes Todorović has good ground-and-pound and can take Reese down. Although Todorović has terrible striking defense, Brady thinks Reese lacks the power to knock him out. He picks Todorović by second-round TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Reese because Todorović is a technical mess and easy to hit. He notes that Reese is also flawed but has more aggression and power. Connor emphasizes that this is a low-level fight and hard to pick with confidence.
Matt picks Zachary Reese to win by knockout in round one. He expects a short fight, noting that Reese is explosive and violent with 7 of 8 wins in the first round, while Todorović has deteriorating durability and often gets finished. Matt likes the under 1.5 rounds and Reese round one knockout prop, and also mentions Reese by submission round one as a long shot.
The MMA Guru picks Zachary Reese by first-round TKO, very confident. He notes Reese's size advantage (6'4") and Todorović's poor durability and chin. He mentions Todorović has been KO'd many times and Reese's pace is strong. He also had a PrizePicks bet on Reese under 5.25 minutes.
Zane picks Reese because he thinks Reese still has unchecked aggression and faith in his game, whereas Todorović seems to have lost confidence after a brutal loss. He notes that both fighters are low-level, but Todorović's tendency to knock himself out and his poor technical game make him the riskier pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | 1 | 29 of 51 | 56% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | 29 of 51 | 56% | 27 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 37 |
| Duško Todorović | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mansur Abdul-Malik | 29 of 51 | 56% | 27 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 37 |
| Duško Todorović | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Mansur Abdul-Malik despite it being his UFC debut. He loves his high-level D1 wrestling, explosiveness, and ground work. He notes Todorović is a technical striker with chin questions. He has Mansur in a parlay but warns against overexposure, advising not to put him in multiple parlays.
Big Brady is very confident in Abdul-Malik, citing Todorović's poor striking defense, low takedown defense, and susceptibility to being knocked out. He highlights Abdul-Malik's wrestling background and devastating ground-and-pound. He predicts a first-round knockout but notes slight cardio concerns if the fight extends.
Cody is confident in Abdul-Malik due to Todorović's glaring holes: poor takedown defense and a weak chin. He notes Abdul-Malik's Division I wrestling background and athleticism, and expects him to take Todorović down and finish him. Cody sees this as a favorable matchup for the prospect.
Connor picks Abdul-Malik, noting he is a big favorite. He describes Abdul-Malik as a great prospect from MMA Masters with natural tools but lacking interstitial skills. He contrasts this with Todorović, who has bad habits and bad defense from a weak regional scene. Connor thinks Abdul-Malik's athleticism will overcome Todorović's flaws.
Daniel Vreeland picks Mansur Abdul-Malik, praising his athleticism, power, and potential. He notes Duško Todorović's defensive flaws (hands down, chin up) and believes Abdul-Malik's physicality will overwhelm him. Vreeland expects Abdul-Malik to get his first UFC win, possibly by knockout.
Todorović is returning from back surgeries and may struggle with ring rust against the large, explosive Abdul-Malik. Despite Todorović's experience, Abdul-Malik's physicality should lead to a knockout victory.
Paul agrees, pointing out Todorović's poor decision-making and chin. He mentions Todorović's leg injury in his last fight and his tendency to walk into danger. Paul thinks Abdul-Malik's wrestling and striking will be too much, but acknowledges the banana peel pricing risk.
The Guru picks Mansur Abdul-Malik but is hesitant, noting that Todorović is a good underdog value. He criticizes Abdul-Malik's contender series performance against Wes Schultz, but believes Todorović's long layoff and ACL tear make him vulnerable. He expects Abdul-Malik's offensive wrestling and ground and pound to be the difference, but warns that if the fight goes past round one, Todorović could make it competitive.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Abdul-Malik. He describes Abdul-Malik as a big, powerful, fast athlete from MMA Masters, but notes his game lacks structure. He criticizes Todorović as hateable with bad defense and a wrestling game that only works against weak opponents. Zane thinks Abdul-Malik's physical advantages will prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 9 of 14 | 64% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Leroy Duncan | 9 of 14 | 64% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Christian Leroy Duncan will win by coming forward and bombing on Todorović, who has a questionable chin. He notes Duncan is a powerful striker with pressure and creativity, while Todorović is more technical but can be chinny. He is not betting but likes the does not go the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Duncan, noting his power and Todorović's poor striking defense and chin. He acknowledges Todorović has good top game but poor wrestling (12% takedown accuracy). He believes Duncan can get back up if taken down and find a knockout. He predicts a second-round KO, calling Todorović's wins unimpressive.
Cody picks Todorović as a dog, noting his top game and ground-and-pound are strong if he can get takedowns. He thinks Duncan's takedown defense is questionable and he may get taken down. He acknowledges Todorović's chin is a liability and he could get knocked out, but he's taking a small sniff at the dog. He says the fight likely doesn't go the distance.
Connor picks Duncan, describing him as a big bully with powerful striking but poor grappling. He notes that Todorović is hittable and has struggled against aggressive fighters. Connor expects a messy fight where Duncan's power and durability will overcome Todorović's wrestling, as Duncan is comfortable in chaotic exchanges.
Jacob placed this as his first moneyline bet on the card, getting early value for premium members. He thinks Duncan has a huge advantage in striking and cardio, while Todorović needs to wrestle but has poor takedown control and gasses. He expects Duncan to dominate in front of the home crowd and likely finish.
Duncan is an unorthodox striker with power and a good gas tank, able to conserve energy early and explode later. Todorović has a grappling-heavy approach but tends to slow down if he doesn't get a finish. Duncan's speed and striking should be too much, and he will likely pull away in the second and third rounds. A knockout victory is predicted, possibly in the third round.
Paul picks Duncan, noting he looks good on tape as a Cage Warriors champion with training in Thailand. He thinks Duncan's striking and finishing ability are real, and Todorović's chin is a massive liability. He says if Todorović can't get wrestling going, he gets knocked out. He initially bet Todorović by mistake but cashed out after realizing it was the wrong Duncan.
The MMA Guru picks Christian Leroy Duncan to win by TKO, highlighting his impressive prospect pedigree and experience against tough competition. He notes Todorović has not beaten any UFC-level opponents and has been finished by everyone still in the UFC. Duncan's size, stand-up, and takedown defense are key advantages, and he predicts a highlight-reel finish via head kick or flying knee.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Duncan's disdain for grapplers and his counter-striking will be effective. He points out that Todorović is not a great athlete and has been exposed by similar fighters. Zane believes Duncan's power and willingness to trade will be too much for Todorović.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 66 of 83 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 5:03 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 61 of 80 | 76% | 107 of 132 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duško Todorović | 0 | 17 of 20 | 85% | 58 of 62 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 2 | Duško Todorović | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 58 of 77 | 75% | 103 of 128 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duško Todorović | 25 of 41 | 60% | 20 of 35 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 7 of 9 | 11 of 14 |
| Jordan Wright | 61 of 80 | 76% | 49 of 68 | 12 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 29 | 28 of 31 | 14 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duško Todorović | 17 of 20 | 85% | 16 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 14 |
| Jordan Wright | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Duško Todorović | 8 of 21 | 38% | 4 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Wright | 58 of 77 | 75% | 48 of 67 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 28 | 26 of 29 | 14 of 20 |
Angelo picks Duško Todorović, believing he is the much better striker. He notes that Jordan Wright is a kill-or-be-killed fighter with big power but a karate style that can be exploited. He is confident in Duško but acknowledges that Jordan is always live and could push a wrestling-heavy game plan, as Duško has 50% takedown defense.
Big Brady picks Duško Todorović to win by first-round ground-and-pound finish. He notes that Jordan Wright is dangerous offensively but has terrible defense and chin, while Todorović has more paths to victory including takedowns and ground-and-pound. He expects Todorović to take the fight to the mat and dominate. He calls this his favorite fight on the card and mentions he has a bet on it.
Cody is very confident in the under 1.5 rounds, calling it his biggest bet in a while. He notes Jordan Wright has never been past 7.5 minutes in any fight, and Todorović has chin issues. He expects Todorović to take Wright down and finish him in the first round. He also likes the under as a standalone bet and in a parlay.
Connor picks Todorović, citing his love for fighting and aggression that will break Wright over time. He notes that Wright panics and gets exhausted, and Todorović's pressure will contribute to that. He acknowledges Todorović is very hittable but believes his durability and passion give him the edge in a longer fight.
Both fighters have power and suspect chins, making this a likely early finish. Todorović has poor striking defense, keeping his hands down, while Wright is explosive but fragile. The host leans Todorović to land the big strike first, but the under 1.5 rounds is the preferred play. Wright is a live underdog, and the fight is closer than the odds suggest.
Paul considers Jordan Wright as a PRP pick, noting Wright is a fast starter with decent power, as shown in his knockout of Jamie Pickett. He points out Todorović is hittable and has a questionable chin, and Wright could catch him early. However, he acknowledges Wright's own flaws and the under is the safer play.
The MMA Guru picks Jordan Wright as a juicy underdog, leaning towards him despite acknowledging his inconsistency. He notes that Wright has been training at Jackson Wink and is settling in. He believes Wright's size and reach advantage will allow him to manipulate the clinch and land knees to finish Todorović, calling it a 50/50 fight.
Zane picks Wright, acknowledging it's a coin flip. He notes that Wright hits very hard and has technical striking from his Anthony Hardonk disciple background, but his mentality is fragile. He thinks Wright's power could catch Todorović early, as Todorović is extremely hittable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 1 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 19 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 9 of 11 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 1 | 14 of 17 | 82% | 19 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 9 of 11 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 3:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chidi Njokuani | 14 of 17 | 82% | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chidi Njokuani | 14 of 17 | 82% | 3 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 5 of 7 | 71% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Chidi Njokuani because of his power, speed, and distance control. He notes that Todorović has questions about his chin and that Njokuani has solid takedown defense. He suggests a prop bet on Njokuani winning inside the distance, as he expects a finish.
Big Brady picks Chidi Njokuani to win by first-round knockout, citing Todorović's horrendous striking defense and tendency to keep his hands down. He notes Njokuani has power and improved takedown defense. He acknowledges Njokuani has been finished in the past but believes he has improved. He expects the fight to stay standing and Njokuani to land a knockout early.
Cody is impressed with Njokuani's improvements in grappling and cardio, noting his recent knockout of Marc-André Barriault. He highlights Todorović's poor head movement and susceptibility to getting hit, as seen in the Punahele Soriano fight. He believes Njokuani's striking acumen and upgraded ground game will lead to a finish, likely in the first two rounds.
The host predicts Duško Todorović via decision. He expects Todorović to control the fight by keeping Njokuani still and against the cage, leading to a potentially boring fight with a lot of control time. He is not fully confident, as he questions the pick slightly when discussing totals, but his official prediction is Todorović by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, saying Njokuani's striking and improved cardio should be enough. He notes Todorović's defensive liabilities and that Njokuani likely lands a big strike in the first two rounds. He hates the moneyline at -220 but still picks Chidi.
The MMA Guru is very confident in Chidi Njokuani, citing his reach advantage and experience. He notes Duško Todorović leaves his chin up when exiting exchanges, and Njokuani's reach will allow him to land cleanly. He predicts a first-round KO for Njokuani.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maki Pitolo | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 67 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duško Todorović | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Maki Pitolo | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 67 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duško Todorović | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Maki Pitolo | 30 of 53 | 56% | 28 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 30 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Duško Todorović | 13 of 29 | 44% | 5 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Maki Pitolo | 30 of 53 | 56% | 28 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 21 of 30 |
Angelo picks Maki Pitolo but does not bet the moneyline; instead he takes inside the distance/decision no action at +140. He notes Maki has power, solid takedowns, and a tough chin, and that Dusko's chin is questionable. He believes Maki can win by stoppage, and if not, he gets a refund.
Big Brady picks Maki Pitolo as a dog, but with low confidence. He notes that neither fighter is reliable, but he likes Pitolo's game plan in his last fight against Julian Marquez, where he fought smart and used takedowns. He criticizes Todorović's terrible striking defense (48%) and poor takedown defense (50%), and believes Pitolo can exploit those weaknesses. However, he acknowledges Pitolo's inconsistency and loss to Callan Potter as red flags.
Cody also picks Pitolo, emphasizing Todorović's defensive flaws and Pitolo's sharper hands. He thinks Pitolo can beat him to the punch and potentially knock him out. Cody notes that Pitolo has cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds.
Daniel Levi leans towards Duško Todorović, citing his body work, clinch fighting, dirty boxing, and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Todorović fights with his hands down and relies on head movement, which could be exploited by Pitolo's power. He acknowledges that Pitolo can crack and that Todorović leaves his chin up, making him vulnerable. He thinks Todorović can make the right decisions in a close fight.
Jacob picks Dusko Todorovic, noting his striking confidence and head movement. He thinks Dusko can win by submission at +285, but the odds are too short. He believes Maki's path is wrestling but he will gas, and Dusko's guard is active. Jacob likes Dusko all the way.
I like Pitolo here. He is better on the feet, throws more volume, and has better striking stats across the board. Todorović has defensive issues and tends to lose minutes. Pitolo should win the striking exchanges and can mix in takedowns. I expect him to win a decision, and the decision prop at plus 450 offers great value.
Paul picks Pitolo, citing his cleaner boxing and power. He notes that Todorović is a defensive liability with poor head movement and has been rocked in recent fights. Paul thinks Pitolo can knock him out or win a decision, but worries about Pitolo's cardio in the third round.
The MMA Guru picks Maki Pitolo to win by split decision. He expects a back-and-forth war where Todorović may drop Pitolo in the first but uses too much energy. Pitolo will grind out the second and third rounds with better pacing, landing knees and takedowns. He calls it a close fight, 29-28 split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 37 of 120 | 30% | 46 of 133 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 71 of 150 | 47% | 73 of 153 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 22 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 23 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 0 | 14 of 47 | 29% | 18 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Duško Todorović | 0 | 28 of 60 | 46% | 28 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Rodrigues | 37 of 120 | 30% | 23 of 103 | 10 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 106 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 71 of 150 | 47% | 49 of 120 | 19 of 24 | 3 of 6 | 63 of 136 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregory Rodrigues | 10 of 36 | 27% | 8 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 20 of 46 | 43% | 14 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregory Rodrigues | 13 of 37 | 35% | 6 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 31 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 23 of 44 | 52% | 16 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gregory Rodrigues | 14 of 47 | 29% | 9 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Duško Todorović | 28 of 60 | 46% | 19 of 46 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 25 of 52 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady sees many red flags in Todorović's striking defense (45%) and notes he fights with his hands down and chin up. He points out Todorović was knocked out by Punahele Soriano after getting clipped repeatedly. He believes Rodrigues hits very hard and will knock Todorović out, likely in the first round. He acknowledges both have poor defense but favors Rodrigues' power.
Cody picks Dusko but is hesitant, noting his poor defense and tendency to get hit. He thinks Dusko's output and cardio could win if he survives the first round. Cody also mentions Gregory Rodrigues' BJJ background but notes he prefers striking. He likes the under 1.5 rounds as a live bet opportunity.
Daniel leans Todorović due to his UFC experience and full camp, but acknowledges the fight could go either way. He praises Todorović's boxing in the pocket, ground and pound, and athleticism, but criticizes his habit of fighting with his hands down and relying on head movement. Daniel notes that Gregory Rodrigues hits hard and has good jiu-jitsu, but questions his cardio and competition level. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision, and is not confident enough to bet on Todorović at chalk.
Paul picks Dusko but is hesitant due to both fighters' suspect chins. He notes Dusko's output and cardio but worries about his durability after the Soriano knockout. Paul thinks Dusko can win if he survives the early exchanges. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.
The Guru picks Duško Todorović but expresses worry about his defensive flaws, particularly the way he rears his head back. He thinks Gregory Rodrigues hasn't fought good competition and lost to Jordan Williams on the contender series. He believes Todorović will wear Rodrigues down and finish by TKO in the second round, but acknowledges a chance Rodrigues catches him early due to Todorović's weird striking defense.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Duško Todorović to win by decision, citing better cardio and volume. He notes that Todorović throws a crazy amount of volume but has poor striking defense, leaving his chin up. He thinks Soriano hits hard and has good wrestling, but Todorović's cardio advantage will take Soriano into deeper waters. He doesn't see a finish likely, but if there is one, it would be Soriano by knockout.
Daniel Levi is confident in Duško Todorović, praising his elite confidence, high work rate, cardio, dirty boxing, and experience against tough opponents. He believes Soriano's only path is an early left hand, but Todorović will weather the storm and take over as the fight extends. He sees Todorović as a future top-15 fighter.
Soriano is a powerful, explosive fighter with good strength and durability. Todorović has a karate-style stance and relies on head movement, but he leans back and keeps his hands low, which could be exploited by Soriano's power. Soriano showed he can go to a decision and use grappling if needed. Todorović's cardio is questionable, and Soriano's strength should allow him to bully Todorović in the clinch and on the ground. At plus money, Soriano is a live underdog with a good chance to win inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Duško Todorović over Punahele Soriano, citing Todorović's superior technical game, reach advantage, and better competition. He expects Todorović to exploit Soriano's wild swinging by shooting for takedowns and eventually securing a submission in the third round. He notes Soriano's power but believes Todorović's versatility will be the difference.
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