Career Averages - Carlos Condit
Career Averages - Matt Brown
Carlos Condit
Matt Brown
Carlos Condit - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 0 | 63 of 176 | 35% | 66 of 179 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 93 of 171 | 54% | 95 of 173 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 0 | 13 of 42 | 30% | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 34 of 61 | 55% | 34 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 28 of 68 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 30 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 25 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 31 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 63 of 176 | 35% | 35 of 134 | 17 of 30 | 11 of 12 | 61 of 173 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 93 of 171 | 54% | 59 of 129 | 6 of 11 | 28 of 31 | 81 of 153 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 13 of 42 | 30% | 3 of 27 | 6 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 34 of 61 | 55% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 19 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 28 of 68 | 41% | 17 of 51 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 29 of 48 | 60% | 18 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 28 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 22 of 66 | 33% | 15 of 56 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 64 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 30 of 62 | 48% | 23 of 54 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.
Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.
Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.
Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.
Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.
I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.
Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.
The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 157 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:52 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 60 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 73 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 15 |
| Matt Brown | 28 of 37 | 75% | 13 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Matt Brown | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Brown | 8 of 8 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 1 | 88 of 230 | 38% | 88 of 230 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 84 of 182 | 46% | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 1 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 30 of 71 | 42% | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 43 of 121 | 35% | 43 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 88 of 230 | 38% | 50 of 173 | 17 of 34 | 21 of 23 | 87 of 228 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 84 of 182 | 46% | 9 of 73 | 28 of 51 | 47 of 58 | 84 of 182 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 15 of 38 | 39% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 31 of 63 | 49% | 3 of 22 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 24 | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 30 of 71 | 42% | 17 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 26 of 56 | 46% | 3 of 19 | 6 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 43 of 121 | 35% | 28 of 100 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 42 of 119 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Court McGee | 27 of 63 | 42% | 3 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.
Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.
The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.
The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 0 | 5 of 24 | 20% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 16 of 33 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 19 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:18 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Chiesa | 5 of 24 | 20% | 2 of 18 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Condit | 10 of 22 | 45% | 8 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Chiesa | 4 of 15 | 26% | 2 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 12 | |
| 2 | Michael Chiesa | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 42 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:52 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 22 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 28 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:01 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Oliveira | 12 of 18 | 66% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 23 | 39% | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Oliveira | 5 of 6 | 83% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alex Oliveira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Carlos Condit | 8 of 17 | 47% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 37 of 112 | 33% | 64 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 32 of 114 | 28% | 64 of 150 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 9 of 35 | 25% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 27 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 17 of 61 | 27% | 18 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 17 of 56 | 30% | 22 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 37 of 112 | 33% | 10 of 69 | 10 of 21 | 17 of 22 | 32 of 103 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 32 of 114 | 28% | 14 of 83 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 10 | 24 of 102 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 10 of 31 | 32% | 3 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 9 of 35 | 25% | 3 of 23 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 10 of 20 | 50% | 3 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 6 of 23 | 26% | 2 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 17 of 61 | 27% | 4 of 38 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 12 | 17 of 58 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 17 of 56 | 30% | 9 of 42 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demian Maia | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demian Maia | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demian Maia | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Demian Maia | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Carlos Condit | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 1 | 92 of 177 | 51% | 93 of 178 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 176 of 495 | 35% | 177 of 497 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 28 of 75 | 37% | 28 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 1 | 10 of 23 | 43% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 17 of 71 | 23% | 18 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 22 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 4 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 47 of 98 | 47% | 47 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Robbie Lawler | 0 | 53 of 92 | 57% | 53 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 62 of 173 | 35% | 62 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Lawler | 92 of 177 | 51% | 82 of 167 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 76 of 153 | 14 of 20 | 2 of 4 |
| Carlos Condit | 176 of 495 | 35% | 96 of 372 | 47 of 79 | 33 of 44 | 149 of 447 | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robbie Lawler | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 28 of 75 | 37% | 9 of 52 | 9 of 12 | 10 of 11 | 23 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Robbie Lawler | 10 of 23 | 43% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Carlos Condit | 17 of 71 | 23% | 6 of 49 | 4 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 16 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Robbie Lawler | 11 of 26 | 42% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 22 of 78 | 28% | 6 of 50 | 9 of 20 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Robbie Lawler | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 47 of 98 | 47% | 27 of 73 | 14 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 39 of 86 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Robbie Lawler | 53 of 92 | 57% | 50 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 78 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Condit | 62 of 173 | 35% | 48 of 148 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 6 | 51 of 148 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Matt Brown - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Court McGee | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 17 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Court McGee | 8 of 31 | 25% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.
Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.
Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.
McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.
Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.
Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 0 | 81 of 129 | 62% | 95 of 145 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 5:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 111 of 211 | 52% | 186 of 289 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 37 | 62% | 25 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 62 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 29 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 59 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 41 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 53 of 100 | 53% | 65 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Barberena | 81 of 129 | 62% | 36 of 75 | 38 of 44 | 7 of 10 | 51 of 95 | 24 of 28 | 6 of 6 |
| Matt Brown | 111 of 211 | 52% | 82 of 170 | 12 of 18 | 17 of 23 | 78 of 164 | 28 of 42 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 37 | 62% | 8 of 21 | 12 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 22 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 23 of 51 | 45% | 13 of 36 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 19 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bryan Barberena | 23 of 36 | 63% | 9 of 20 | 12 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 29 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 35 of 60 | 58% | 26 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 23 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | |
| 3 | Bryan Barberena | 35 of 56 | 62% | 19 of 34 | 14 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 25 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 |
| Matt Brown | 53 of 100 | 53% | 43 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 73 | 17 of 27 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.
Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.
The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.
Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 27 of 49 | 55% | 30 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 23 of 54 | 42% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 1 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dhiego Lima | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 27 of 49 | 55% | 12 of 27 | 11 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 23 of 54 | 42% | 8 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 12 | 22 of 53 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 15 of 30 | 50% | 8 of 18 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 12 of 32 | 37% | 2 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 12 of 19 | 63% | 4 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Dhiego Lima | 11 of 22 | 50% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.
Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.
Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.
Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.
Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.
The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.
Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.
The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 0 | 39 of 88 | 44% | 157 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 4:52 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 6:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 60 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:23 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 15 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:36 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 58 of 83 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 39 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 8 of 8 | 100% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Condit | 39 of 88 | 44% | 30 of 73 | 4 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 22 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 15 |
| Matt Brown | 28 of 37 | 75% | 13 of 22 | 11 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 8 of 8 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Condit | 6 of 22 | 27% | 3 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Matt Brown | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Carlos Condit | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Brown | 11 of 15 | 73% | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Carlos Condit | 12 of 22 | 54% | 10 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Matt Brown | 8 of 8 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 |
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 61 | 54% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 2 | 37 of 73 | 50% | 42 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 32 of 65 | 49% | 37 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Baeza | 33 of 61 | 54% | 25 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 44 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 37 of 73 | 50% | 21 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 12 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Miguel Baeza | 33 of 59 | 55% | 25 of 49 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 42 | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 32 of 65 | 49% | 17 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | |
| 2 | Miguel Baeza | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 5 of 8 | 62% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.
Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.
The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 0 | 30 of 47 | 63% | 40 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 7:34 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 38 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 14 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 30 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Ben Saunders | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 24 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 30 of 47 | 63% | 27 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
| Ben Saunders | 12 of 23 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 5 of 10 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Ben Saunders | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Matt Brown | 25 of 37 | 67% | 23 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 21 |
| Ben Saunders | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Diego Sanchez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Brown | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Sanchez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 7 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 2 | 63 of 147 | 42% | 64 of 148 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 70 of 128 | 54% | 73 of 131 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 0 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 25 of 70 | 35% | 25 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Matt Brown | 1 | 41 of 60 | 68% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Matt Brown | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Cerrone | 63 of 147 | 42% | 46 of 126 | 7 of 11 | 10 of 10 | 62 of 143 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 70 of 128 | 54% | 42 of 91 | 28 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 62 of 118 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Cerrone | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 27 of 63 | 42% | 15 of 45 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Donald Cerrone | 25 of 70 | 35% | 19 of 62 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 66 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 41 of 60 | 68% | 26 of 43 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Donald Cerrone | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Brown | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.
Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.
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