vs
-188 +150
UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 45
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Carlos Condit
3.66 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.59 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Matt Brown
3.76 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.92 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.68 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Carlos Condit
Moneyline
BetWay -188
KO/TKO
BetWay +175
Submission
BetWay +600
Decision
BetWay +300
Matt Brown
Moneyline
BetWay +150
KO/TKO
BetWay +450
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
BetWay +350
Carlos Condit - Fight History
LOSS vs Max Griffin
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 63 of 176 35% 66 of 179 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 93 of 171 54% 95 of 173 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Max Griffin 0 28 of 68 41% 28 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Max Griffin 0 22 of 66 33% 25 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 30 of 62 48% 31 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 63 of 176 35% 35 of 134 17 of 30 11 of 12 61 of 173 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 93 of 171 54% 59 of 129 6 of 11 28 of 31 81 of 153 2 of 2 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 13 of 42 30% 3 of 27 6 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 34 of 61 55% 18 of 41 0 of 1 16 of 19 24 of 45 0 of 0 10 of 16
2 Max Griffin 28 of 68 41% 17 of 51 7 of 12 4 of 5 28 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 29 of 48 60% 18 of 34 2 of 5 9 of 9 28 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 22 of 66 33% 15 of 56 4 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 30 of 62 48% 23 of 54 4 of 5 3 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit

Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.

"i have max griffin winning this fight uh i'll be rooting for carlos condit kind of because i also do have max griffin in my draftkings lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.

"i'm going to take max griffin to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.

Griffin by submission at +2000 on DraftKings; Griffin by decision at +135
"give me the 20 to one on a minus 190 favorite in what i believe is his best path to victory"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.

"i'm gonna i'm gonna edge connor to do something sneaky and upset a lot of people"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.

"i honestly think carlos conda at 7 500 is one of the best values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.

Griffin by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i like max griffin here... i think griffin by decision the line might seem a little bit wide to some people which is why i understand excuse me why some people might be taking carlos conant in the spot but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.

Griffin by decision at +135
"i'm gonna go with a griffin by decision but uh you know i the confidence level not not where i'd wanted just to slam that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.

"i'm gonna go with carlos condit here by decision in an upset i think max griffin is good i think he's gonna be doing good early in this fight but as the rounds go on i think condit will make …"
WIN vs Matt Brown
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
WIN vs Court McGee
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana · Oct 04, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 1 88 of 230 38% 88 of 230 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 84 of 182 46% 84 of 182 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 1 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 31 of 63 49% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Carlos Condit 0 30 of 71 42% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Court McGee 0 26 of 56 46% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlos Condit 0 43 of 121 35% 43 of 121 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 88 of 230 38% 50 of 173 17 of 34 21 of 23 87 of 228 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 84 of 182 46% 9 of 73 28 of 51 47 of 58 84 of 182 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 15 of 38 39% 5 of 19 4 of 12 6 of 7 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 31 of 63 49% 3 of 22 11 of 17 17 of 24 31 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Carlos Condit 30 of 71 42% 17 of 54 7 of 11 6 of 6 30 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Court McGee 26 of 56 46% 3 of 19 6 of 17 17 of 20 26 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 43 of 121 35% 28 of 100 6 of 11 9 of 10 42 of 119 0 of 0 1 of 2
Court McGee 27 of 63 42% 3 of 32 11 of 17 13 of 14 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 30, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee to win by decision. He notes McGee's clear path to victory via takedowns, as Condit has poor takedown defense. He thinks Condit's only chance is a submission off his back, but McGee has never been submitted.

"give me court mcgee to win a pretty pretty ugly decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 2, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel leans with Condit, reasoning that McGee's training camp was subpar (mainly drilling with his 13-year-old son) and that Condit has had moments of success against higher-level competition. He acknowledges Condit's five-fight losing streak but thinks this is a winnable fight, predicting a split decision. He notes that McGee's takedowns could be a factor but Condit might capitalize on submissions.

Condit by split decision; mentions McGee's camp issues; notes Condit's submission threat off his back
"i think conde might actually this is the one fight con that can win ben saunders beat this guy so i'm gonna go with carlos conde via split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

The host leans toward Court McGee due to Condit's poor takedown defense and McGee's durability, but he is not confident enough to bet at -135. He predicts a decision win for McGee but says he would only bet if McGee were plus money.

Over 2.5 rounds -250 (not recommended)
"my head definitely says court mcgee... but even at minus 135 i can't take the shot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Carlos Condit, noting his good ground game and submission threats against Michael Chiesa. He believes Condit is naturally bigger and can push the pace, and predicts a submission by armbar in the second round or a decision. He sees nothing in McGee's game to suggest he can beat Condit.

Prediction: submission (armbar) round 2 or decision
"i'm going to be going with carlos condit getting a job done taller guy naturally bigger welterweight can push the pace as well"
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission (kimura) R2 0:56 · UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Dec 29, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 24 20% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 10 of 22 45% 16 of 33 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 4 of 15 26% 19 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:18
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 17 52% 13 of 26 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:42
2 Michael Chiesa 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 5 20% 3 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 5 of 24 20% 2 of 18 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 18 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 10 of 22 45% 8 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 4 of 15 26% 2 of 11 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 9 2 of 4 1 of 2
Carlos Condit 9 of 17 52% 7 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 12
2 Michael Chiesa 1 of 9 11% 0 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:17 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:52
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 23 39% 22 of 37 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Oliveira 0 5 of 6 83% 28 of 30 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:01
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
2 Alex Oliveira 0 7 of 12 58% 14 of 19 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:51
Carlos Condit 0 8 of 17 47% 13 of 23 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 6 of 12 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 7
Carlos Condit 9 of 23 39% 8 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Oliveira 5 of 6 83% 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Alex Oliveira 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 6
Carlos Condit 8 of 17 47% 8 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Dec 30, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 37 of 112 33% 64 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:43
Carlos Condit 0 32 of 114 28% 64 of 150 6 of 9 66% 0 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 10 of 31 32% 18 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Carlos Condit 0 9 of 35 25% 15 of 42 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:40
2 Neil Magny 0 10 of 20 50% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Carlos Condit 0 6 of 23 26% 27 of 47 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:47
3 Neil Magny 0 17 of 61 27% 18 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 56 30% 22 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 37 of 112 33% 10 of 69 10 of 21 17 of 22 32 of 103 5 of 9 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 32 of 114 28% 14 of 83 13 of 21 5 of 10 24 of 102 6 of 9 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 10 of 31 32% 3 of 20 2 of 5 5 of 6 7 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 9 of 35 25% 3 of 23 6 of 9 0 of 3 6 of 29 2 of 4 1 of 2
2 Neil Magny 10 of 20 50% 3 of 11 3 of 5 4 of 4 8 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 6 of 23 26% 2 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 17 of 61 27% 4 of 38 5 of 11 8 of 12 17 of 58 0 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 17 of 56 30% 9 of 42 4 of 9 4 of 5 14 of 53 2 of 2 1 of 1
LOSS vs Demian Maia
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:52 · UFC on Fox: Maia vs. Condit · Aug 27, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Demian Maia 0 1 of 1 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:19
Carlos Condit 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Demian Maia 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Carlos Condit 1 of 6 16% 1 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1
LOSS vs Robbie Lawler
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit · Jan 02, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robbie Lawler 1 92 of 177 51% 93 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Carlos Condit 0 176 of 495 35% 177 of 497 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robbie Lawler 0 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Robbie Lawler 1 10 of 23 43% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Carlos Condit 0 17 of 71 23% 18 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Robbie Lawler 0 11 of 26 42% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Carlos Condit 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
4 Robbie Lawler 0 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 47 of 98 47% 47 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Robbie Lawler 0 53 of 92 57% 53 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 62 of 173 35% 62 of 173 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robbie Lawler 92 of 177 51% 82 of 167 7 of 7 3 of 3 76 of 153 14 of 20 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 176 of 495 35% 96 of 372 47 of 79 33 of 44 149 of 447 27 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robbie Lawler 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 28 of 75 37% 9 of 52 9 of 12 10 of 11 23 of 67 5 of 8 0 of 0
2 Robbie Lawler 10 of 23 43% 8 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 4
Carlos Condit 17 of 71 23% 6 of 49 4 of 11 7 of 11 16 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Robbie Lawler 11 of 26 42% 9 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 22 3 of 4 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 22 of 78 28% 6 of 50 9 of 20 7 of 8 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Robbie Lawler 6 of 18 33% 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 47 of 98 47% 27 of 73 14 of 17 6 of 8 39 of 86 8 of 12 0 of 0
5 Robbie Lawler 53 of 92 57% 50 of 89 2 of 2 1 of 1 44 of 78 9 of 14 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 62 of 173 35% 48 of 148 11 of 19 3 of 6 51 of 148 11 of 25 0 of 0
Matt Brown - Fight History
WIN vs Court McGee
KO (punch) R1 4:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 11 of 15 73% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Court McGee 0 8 of 31 25% 17 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 7 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Court McGee 8 of 31 25% 2 of 21 2 of 5 4 of 5 6 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown, saying he thinks Brown will be the more durable of the two. He notes Court McGee is coming off a bad knockout loss and his chin is a question. He acknowledges the line movement tracker shows McGee went from +140 to -180 favorite, and that trend has been 7-1, but he goes against it. He is not betting on this fight.

"I'm still going to lean Matt Brown I'm gonna go against that Trend there but no bet absolutely no bet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

Big Brady picks Court McGee but expresses distrust after McGee's fight against Condit where he didn't attempt a single takedown. He believes if McGee uses the right game plan—wrestling and taking down Matt Brown—he should win easily. Brady notes Brown is 42 with poor takedown defense and cardio, and McGee has better cardio and wrestling. He predicts a third-round submission, but says he can't fully trust McGee after the Condit fight.

third round submission
"I'll say he does do that I'll say he goes out there takes down Matt Brown rents the repeat and grinds this guy across three rounds maybe even a late finish could be on the table here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his better gas tank and durability. He notes that Brown's chin and reflexes have declined with age, and that McGee's kickboxing is good enough to compete. He expects McGee to wrestle and control the fight, especially in later rounds. He mentions the 'died and came back' theory for cardio.

"I got to go with the durability and the cardio which both still favor Court McGee so I too will take Court McGee but uh it's an old man Legends fight which I am so down for"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Connor leans toward Court McGee, acknowledging that Matt Brown could knock him out early but that McGee's durability and pace are likely to carry him. He notes that Brown's endurance has declined and that McGee's grinding style is antithetical to Brown's current capabilities. Connor expects McGee to win by decision, as Brown's recent fights show he fades.

"I think I just have to lean McGee, like sure. Matt Brown could knock him out in the first round, right?"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting bias as he will attend the fight and is a fan. He believes Brown is historically the better fighter, having reached number five in the welterweight rankings, while McGee never cracked the top 15. However, he acknowledges Brown's age (42) and cardio issues, which could allow McGee to push the pace and mix in takedowns. Levi hopes Brown gets a knockout to tie the UFC record, but notes the pick is not based on a betting edge.

Brown by KO to tie UFC knockout record; no bet placed
"I'm gonna pick Matt Brown uh just because historically speaking I think he wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Court McGee

McGee has a cardio and pace advantage over the aging Brown. He will tie Brown up, use footwork to avoid big shots, and weaponize his cardio to take over in the later rounds. Brown has slowed down in recent fights and his wrestling may not be effective against McGee. McGee will grind out a decision victory.

"I think Court McGee will do a good job of tying him up using his but you know footwork and bicycle to get out of the way of these big shots of Matt Brown"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that McGee can make the fight easy by sticking to takedowns and controlling Brown. He added McGee to a chalk parlay. He acknowledges the possibility of a 'gentleman's agreement' striking affair but believes McGee's grappling is the key.

added to parlay with Garry and Ulberg
"I think Court McGee can make this fight very easy on himself by sticking to the wrestling getting up in Matt Brown's face and getting takedowns and securing them and holding in position"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown, citing his better recent performances and the fact that Court McGee is coming off a brutal KO loss. He believes Brown's toughness and aggression will be too much, predicting a KO in the second or third round.

KO in the second or third round
"I'm actually going to pick Matt Brown by KO in the second or third round here against Court mcgear"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Court McGee

Zane picks Court McGee because he believes McGee's pace and grinding style will overwhelm Matt Brown, who fades as fights progress. He notes that Brown is still dangerous early but lacks the endurance to keep up with McGee's constant pressure and wrestling. Zane expects McGee to win a decision, as Brown's recent losses show he slows down significantly.

"I guess I'll take court McGee just cause one round of chance from exactly."
LOSS vs Bryan Barberena
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Barberena 0 81 of 129 62% 95 of 145 5 of 7 71% 0 0 5:01
Matt Brown 0 111 of 211 52% 186 of 289 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 37 62% 25 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:39
Matt Brown 0 23 of 51 45% 62 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
2 Bryan Barberena 0 23 of 36 63% 29 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Matt Brown 0 35 of 60 58% 59 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:30
3 Bryan Barberena 0 35 of 56 62% 41 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:37
Matt Brown 0 53 of 100 53% 65 of 113 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Barberena 81 of 129 62% 36 of 75 38 of 44 7 of 10 51 of 95 24 of 28 6 of 6
Matt Brown 111 of 211 52% 82 of 170 12 of 18 17 of 23 78 of 164 28 of 42 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Barberena 23 of 37 62% 8 of 21 12 of 12 3 of 4 9 of 22 11 of 12 3 of 3
Matt Brown 23 of 51 45% 13 of 36 2 of 4 8 of 11 19 of 46 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Bryan Barberena 23 of 36 63% 9 of 20 12 of 14 2 of 2 17 of 29 6 of 7 0 of 0
Matt Brown 35 of 60 58% 26 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 10 23 of 45 7 of 10 5 of 5
3 Bryan Barberena 35 of 56 62% 19 of 34 14 of 18 2 of 4 25 of 44 7 of 9 3 of 3
Matt Brown 53 of 100 53% 43 of 87 8 of 11 2 of 2 36 of 73 17 of 27 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

Angelo picks Bryan Barberena, citing his durability, impressive volume, and forward pressure. He notes Barberena landed 108 strikes in his last fight and 169 against Vicente Luque. He thinks Barberena's constant volume will be the difference and expects a decision win. He says he probably won't bet on this fight.

"i need to go with brian barnard here he's incredibly durable his volume is impressive"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Big Brady picks Matt Brown to knock out Bryan Barberena in the first or second round. He believes Barberena is washed after the Luke fight, citing poor takedown defense and being dropped twice by Jason Witt. He notes that Brown still has power, as shown in his last fight against Lima, and that Barberena's chin is no longer reliable. Brady also mentions that Barberena has health issues and has been taken down frequently in recent fights.

Matt Brown wins by KO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna take the the 41 year old here to actually knock out brian barbarino we see that matt brown still has that power in his hands with his knockout in his last fight against lima."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Cody strongly favors Matt Brown, highlighting Barberena's declining durability and poor takedown defense. He notes Barberena's recent wars and losses, while Brown still has power and timing. He thinks Brown can win by KO or decision. He calls it his first bet of the week.

first bet of the week
"i'm actually gonna go towards the brown side of this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown, admitting he is biased as a fan. He believes Brown is the better fighter with more finishing ability and can mix in takedowns. He notes both fighters are on the decline but thinks Brown's power and hometown crowd will carry him. He is hesitant because of Brown's age and chin, and Barberena's durability. He also points out Barberena hasn't looked the same since the Luque fight.

"I'm still gonna go with matt brown here guys... I think he's going to be buoyed by this crowd"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Barberena

The host picks Barberena, noting his youth, body punching (30% of strikes to body), and Matt Brown's known body vulnerability. He expects a striking battle and believes Barberena will get a knockout, possibly in round 3 as Brown slows down. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision'.

Barberena inside the distance at +315; fight doesn't go to decision at -130 to -140; Barberena round 3 at +1050
"i'm gonna go brian barber arena as the pick but rather than picking a side here again the odds are great on either side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Paul picks Matt Brown, citing his wrestling advantage and Barberena's inability to stop takedowns. He notes Brown's hometown crowd and experience. He thinks Brown can grind out a win or land a big shot. He expects the line to move and hopes for plus money.

"i'm gonna pick matt brown but i'm very interested to hear what you got"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The MMA Guru picks Matt Brown by second-round TKO over Bryan Barberena. He envisions Barberena slightly edging the first round before getting caught with a big overhand. The Guru trusts Brown's power and recent resurgence, noting his second-round finish of Diego Lima, while Barberena's wars may leave him vulnerable.

second round tko
"i'm gonna go with matt the immortal brown my boy"
WIN vs Dhiego Lima
KO (punch) R2 3:02 · UFC on ESPN: The Korean Zombie vs. Ige · Jun 19, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 27 of 49 55% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 23 of 54 42% 23 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dhiego Lima 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 1 12 of 19 63% 15 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dhiego Lima 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 27 of 49 55% 12 of 27 11 of 17 4 of 5 22 of 44 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 23 of 54 42% 8 of 38 4 of 4 11 of 12 22 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 15 of 30 50% 8 of 18 4 of 8 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 12 of 32 37% 2 of 21 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 31 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Matt Brown 12 of 19 63% 4 of 9 7 of 9 1 of 1 7 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Dhiego Lima 11 of 22 50% 6 of 17 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Angelo picks Matt Brown as an underdog, citing Lima's brother's recent loss as a potential emotional distraction. He thinks Brown's toughness, power, and underrated wrestling could be factors. He is not confident and has no bets on the fight, but likes the over on strikes for both.

monkey knife fight: more more (max play)
"i have matt brown winning this fight it is not the most confident pick i've ever had."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Big Brady picks the younger Lima, citing Brown's age (40) and 13 finished losses. He thinks Lima's leg kicks and youth will lead to a finish, but acknowledges Brown could knock Lima out. He recommends staying away from betting.

win by KO
"I will take the younger fighter in diego lima to get it done I'll say bye knockout here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Cody picks Lima but is hesitant, noting Lima's questionable chin and recent split decisions. He acknowledges Matt Brown's early power but believes Brown's cardio and speed have declined. Cody thinks Lima's calf kicks and jab will allow him to pull away in later rounds, but he is not confident enough to bet.

"i think i gotta take the coward's way out and probably go with diego lima you know again i just i i don't love betting on these guys at this stage of their career"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Daniel Levi picks Dhiego Lima, citing youth and freshness. He notes that Matt Brown is 40 years old and his durability is declining, as seen in the Miguel Baeza fight where he was knocked out by punches for the first time. He believes Lima's calf kicks and left hook will be effective, and that he can either finish or win a decision. He respects Brown but thinks the age and recent performances favor Lima.

"i'm gonna go with diego lima by being the younger fresher guy i think he chops him down with calf kicks and maybe finds a left hook finish"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Jacob picks Dhiego Lima, expecting him to chew up Brown's legs with kicks and out-strike him. He thinks Brown's age and lack of volume will be issues. He has Lima in his lineup at $9,000 and believes Lima will dominate without a finish.

"i am picking diego he's in my lineup."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 17, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

The host picks Dhiego Lima by decision, citing his calf kicks and striking advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues in his last fight but believes he can implement a similar game plan to the Miguel Baeza fight, where calf kicks debilitated Brown. He thinks Lima can get in and out of exchanges and slow Brown down. He is not highly confident but sees Lima as the better fighter against the 40-year-old Brown, who may be on a three-fight skid.

Lima by decision at +150; over 2.5 rounds at -130 mentioned as live; Lima by KO at +400 noted
"i'll go with diego lima to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 16, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dhiego Lima

Paul picks Lima, citing Lima's youth and striking advantage. He notes Brown's age (40) and declining cardio, and believes Lima can win by decision or late finish. Paul also bets under 2.5 rounds, expecting a finish either way.

under 2.5 rounds +120
"i'll pick diego lima to win this fight diego or diego lima maybe in rounds two or three i guess is where i would go"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2021 (fight day)
Dhiego Lima

The MMA Guru picks Dhiego Lima to win by first-round TKO via lead hook. He believes Matt Brown has taken too much damage and will rush in with his hands down, allowing Lima to land a check hook similar to the one Miguel Baeza landed on Brown. He references Lima's previous lead hook KO of Chad Laprise and expects Lima to finish Brown at the end of the first round.

lead hook KO, first round TKO
"i'm gonna go with diego lima i'm gonna go the lead hook ko... finish him at the end of the first round by tko"
LOSS vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Condit 0 39 of 88 44% 157 of 209 2 of 4 50% 0 1 4:52
Matt Brown 0 28 of 37 75% 37 of 52 1 of 6 16% 0 0 6:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Condit 0 6 of 22 27% 60 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:23
Matt Brown 0 9 of 14 64% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:36
2 Carlos Condit 0 21 of 44 47% 58 of 83 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:25
Matt Brown 0 11 of 15 73% 12 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
3 Carlos Condit 0 12 of 22 54% 39 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
Matt Brown 0 8 of 8 100% 10 of 13 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Condit 39 of 88 44% 30 of 73 4 of 8 5 of 7 22 of 68 5 of 5 12 of 15
Matt Brown 28 of 37 75% 13 of 22 11 of 11 4 of 4 11 of 18 8 of 8 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Condit 6 of 22 27% 3 of 16 1 of 3 2 of 3 3 of 17 0 of 0 3 of 5
Matt Brown 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 7
2 Carlos Condit 21 of 44 47% 17 of 38 2 of 3 2 of 3 14 of 36 0 of 0 7 of 8
Matt Brown 11 of 15 73% 3 of 7 6 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0
3 Carlos Condit 12 of 22 54% 10 of 19 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 15 5 of 5 2 of 2
Matt Brown 8 of 8 100% 4 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"
LOSS vs Miguel Baeza
TKO (punches) R2 0:18 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 2 37 of 73 50% 42 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miguel Baeza 0 33 of 59 55% 33 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Matt Brown 1 32 of 65 49% 37 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
2 Miguel Baeza 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Matt Brown 1 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miguel Baeza 33 of 61 54% 25 of 51 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 44 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 37 of 73 50% 21 of 54 5 of 7 11 of 12 29 of 62 1 of 2 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miguel Baeza 33 of 59 55% 25 of 49 8 of 10 0 of 0 21 of 42 12 of 17 0 of 0
Matt Brown 32 of 65 49% 17 of 48 5 of 6 10 of 11 25 of 56 1 of 2 6 of 7
2 Miguel Baeza 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 5 of 8 62% 4 of 6 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Miguel Baeza

Big Brady picks Miguel Baeza by first-round knockout, but is hesitant. He notes that Baeza's leg kicks are a huge factor and that Brown is dangerous on the feet and has a path to victory via takedowns. He compares the fight to the Askarov vs. Kelleher fight where an undefeated fighter got knocked out. He does not agree with Baeza being a -175 favorite and thinks the line should be closer.

first-round knockout, leg kicks, underdog +155 for Brown
"I am going with by aiza and I'll tell you why but you cannot count on Matt Brown... I'm going with by Asia I'm gonna go by first-round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi slightly leans with Matt Brown. He acknowledges that Miguel Baeza is super talented and could blow Brown out with a liver kick, but he thinks Brown will drag him into deep waters and drown him. He notes that Brown has historically been weak to the body but has been fighting with his hands down lately. He sees this as a good lesson for Baeza regardless.

"I'm gonna slightly lean with Matt Brown here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Matt Brown

The host picks Matt Brown, believing his veteran experience and pressure against the cage will overwhelm the undefeated Baeza. He thinks Baeza has not faced adversity and will struggle when things don't go his way. He predicts a TKO finish in the second or third round.

Matt Brown by TKO in the second or third round
"I think Matt Brown is gonna get this done maybe by finishing the second or third round I'll go with that TKO Matt Brown third or second round finish"
WIN vs Ben Saunders
KO (elbows and punches) R2 4:55 · UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington · Dec 14, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 0 30 of 47 63% 40 of 59 2 of 3 66% 0 0 7:34
Ben Saunders 0 12 of 23 52% 38 of 49 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 0 5 of 10 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Ben Saunders 0 9 of 14 64% 14 of 19 0 of 0 --- 4 0 0:00
2 Matt Brown 0 25 of 37 67% 30 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:26
Ben Saunders 0 3 of 9 33% 24 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 30 of 47 63% 27 of 43 2 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 20 2 of 2 18 of 25
Ben Saunders 12 of 23 52% 10 of 17 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 15 0 of 0 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 5 of 10 50% 4 of 8 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 4
Ben Saunders 9 of 14 64% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 8
2 Matt Brown 25 of 37 67% 23 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 14 2 of 2 16 of 21
Ben Saunders 3 of 9 33% 1 of 5 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Diego Sanchez
KO (elbow) R1 3:44 · UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Nov 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Matt Brown 1 18 of 34 52% 20 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Diego Sanchez 0 12 of 20 60% 13 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Matt Brown 18 of 34 52% 14 of 30 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 28 6 of 6 0 of 0
Diego Sanchez 12 of 20 60% 7 of 12 2 of 5 3 of 3 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Donald Cerrone
KO (Head Kick) R3 0:34 · UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Dec 10, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Donald Cerrone 2 63 of 147 42% 64 of 148 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:35
Matt Brown 1 70 of 128 54% 73 of 131 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Donald Cerrone 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:32
Matt Brown 0 27 of 63 42% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Donald Cerrone 1 25 of 70 35% 25 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Matt Brown 1 41 of 60 68% 42 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
3 Donald Cerrone 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Matt Brown 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Donald Cerrone 63 of 147 42% 46 of 126 7 of 11 10 of 10 62 of 143 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 70 of 128 54% 42 of 91 28 of 36 0 of 1 62 of 118 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Donald Cerrone 34 of 72 47% 24 of 60 4 of 6 6 of 6 34 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 27 of 63 42% 15 of 45 12 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 60 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Donald Cerrone 25 of 70 35% 19 of 62 3 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 4 0 of 0
Matt Brown 41 of 60 68% 26 of 43 15 of 16 0 of 1 35 of 53 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Donald Cerrone 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Matt Brown 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Big Brady picks Carlos Condit to win inside the distance, specifically by second-round knockout. He notes Condit's 90% finish rate and that he has never been knocked out, while Brown has been knocked out three times and is weak to the body. He believes Brown's durability is not what it once was and that Condit can finish him. He also mentions that Brown has been submitted 10 times, but Condit's path is via knockout.

second round knockout
"i'm going to say second round knockout for condit there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Daniel Levi picks Matt Brown as a slight underdog, calling it a 50-55 fight. He notes Condit's last win over Court McGee was unimpressive, while Brown has knockout power and a history of finishing fights. He expects Condit to try to point-fight, but Brown's pressure and body shots could be key. He admits low confidence.

"i'll take the plus 145 dog i'll go with matt brown"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Matt Brown

Matt Brown's pressure style is a bad matchup for Condit, who struggles when opponents stay in his face and take away his space. Brown will push forward, use dirty boxing, and grind Condit against the cage. Condit's takedown defense is poor and he often relies on his back, but Brown is not a submission threat. Condit's best chance is on the feet with kicks, but Brown's durability and pressure should earn him a decision. The line should be closer to even, so plus money on Brown is value.

Matt Brown by decision is the most likely outcome; a TKO is possible but less likely given Condit's durability.
"I think matt brown given his style and what we've seen from him as of late... i would line it a little bit closer to an even type of fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Condit over Matt Brown, citing Condit's superior chin and striking. He notes Brown is losing his chin and coming off a TKO loss, while Condit has never been knocked out. He predicts Condit will win by third-round TKO once Brown gasses. He also mentions Condit's historical robbery against Robbie Lawler.

third round TKO
"i'm gonna go with carlos condit's chin sticking with him in this fight and him getting a tko finish in the third round once matt brown starts to gas a little bit from the stand up"