Career Averages - Li Jingliang
Career Averages - Santiago Ponzinibbio
Li Jingliang
Santiago Ponzinibbio
Li Jingliang - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 41 of 111 | 36% | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 55 of 84 | 65% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 2 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 41 of 111 | 36% | 12 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 25 of 37 | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 55 of 84 | 65% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 26 of 66 | 39% | 7 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 19 | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 15 of 45 | 33% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 18 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.
Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.
Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.
Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.
The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.
Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 78 of 175 | 44% | 78 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 88 of 185 | 47% | 89 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 78 of 175 | 44% | 25 of 103 | 23 of 34 | 30 of 38 | 78 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 88 of 185 | 47% | 54 of 140 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 22 | 88 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 54 | 50% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 20 of 40 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 24 of 59 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 16 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 62 | 43% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 79 | 43% | 25 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On a little over a day’s notice, these next three fights will all feature fighters facing different opponents than they trained for. This mix-and-match round robin begins at 180 pounds, with welterweight Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) battling it out against a man that weighed in 10 pounds heavier than him. Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC) planned on fighting at 180 pounds, so on paper he should have a significant weight advantage. Keeping things on the up-and-up is referee Mark Smith, and the fighters gladly touch gloves to start things off. Rodriguez tries to reach his opponent with a lunging right jab, and Li looks for a check hook on the way in but cannot land it. Rodriguez ducks back when a low kick sweeps at him, and he charges with two punches that knock the Chinese fighter back to the wall. Li targets another body kick, and Rodriguez cracks him with a left hand. They measure one another with their alternating hands, and the pace wanes as they appear to be concerned with one another’s power. Li kicks the body, and he dodges a response of the same variety. Rodriguez peppers the jab and walks into a right hand, but he pays it no mind and resets on the outside. Li kicks with both legs to the inside and outside of the leg, and Rodriguez keeps flicking out his sharp jab. Li throws a punch that bounces off the top of the cup and follows with one to the head, and Rodriguez ignores it and takes a flush body kick. Li works the ribcage with several body, and Rodriguez responds with a head kick that lands about as cleanly as one can, but Li does not even budge. Li instead swarms him with punches, and Rodriguez retreats and attacks the calf with his shin. Li leaps forward with a pair of punches, and Rodriguez shoulder rolls both of them and finds himself evading a secondary burst of blows aimed his way. Two kicks go unanswered from Li, and they clash shins when kicking at the same time. When Li fires off a kick to the side and lazily brings his leg back, Rodriguez times the opportunity to belt him with a pair of stunning hooks. Li shakes out the cobwebs and catches a low kick. As holds one leg up, he kicks the other, sweeping Rodriguez out and chasing him to smack him in the face with a right hand. Li backs off before Rodriguez can unload on him, and he gives ground and starts moving his arms around strangely. One last kick from “The Leech” connects before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 2
Fists are bumped to begin the second stanza, and Rodriguez skips forward with a chopping calf kick. Li gives him one back, and he bull-rushes forward with punches and backpedals to start showboating. Rodriguez does not make him pay for the posturing, only scoring a few swiping right hands that do not land flush. Rodriguez sticks out a jab, and they trade leg kicks on the inside. When Li charges in recklessly, Rodriguez quickly intercepts him with a short left. The jab for Rodriguez is working effectively, and Li is getting more wild and throwing heavier with wider arcs. Rodriguez sees them coming and sticks the jab in Li’s face repeatedly. Li sits down on an inside leg kick, and he gets backed off from a punch to the chest. Rodriguez connects with a solid kick on the inner thigh, and he aims another to the same spot. Rodriguez checks a kick and sticks his hands out, but Li swats them away. They grade these tit-for-tat strikes one after the other, as if taking turns to compete. Rodriguez turns up the pace briefly with a series of jabs, and he pulls back when Li winds up with a big left hand. Rodriguez dodges several winging punches, and the crowd begins to boo the two fighters for their swings and misses. Both men get off heavy leg kicks, and they come up short with their fists. When Li attempts a Superman punch, Rodriguez catches him with a quick right hook in the way forward, and Li changes his mind about any subsequent shots. Rodriguez scores a left, and Li responds with a booming shot that knocks Rodriguez and appears to hurt him. “The Leech” grins and lets Rodriguez off the hook instead of giving chase, and Rodriguez backs him up to the wall with low kicks and jabs. The American batters the lead leg with kicks, and he goes up high with a kick. Li throws him to the mat, but before he can take advantage, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 3
The gloves are touched to lead off the final period, and Rodriguez advances but does not throw much. Li counters him with a straight right, and they go punch for punch and kick for kick in a slow but methodical pace. Li charges, swinging hammers, and Rodriguez backs him off with jabs and checks a leg kick. Li throws bombs, and Rodriguez slips them and comes forward. Li attempts to catch a kick, and he lets go before anything comes from it. Li peppers his man with leg kicks, and he scores a left hand on the ear. Li slaps Rodriguez as the crowd voices its disapproval, and this prompts a brief exchange of fists. Rodriguez takes anything on the chin and venomously retaliates, and Li ricochets off the fencing. Li ducks a hook and swings wide, with exciting near-misses from both men. Rodriguez splits the guard repeatedly with jabs, and he uses them to shut down the biggest blows from his opponent. The leg kicks come from both men, but it is only Rodriguez who checks them. Li ducks down and wings a huge right hand, and Rodriguez guards it just in the nick of time. Rodriguez slips and counters, and he keeps his jab in Li’s face one after the next. Li targets the body with a straight right, but it is one-and-done as Rodriguez marks him up with jabs. Rodriguez follows one jab with a left hand, and Li does not react well to it. Li backs off, his volume diminishing, but Rodriguez is unable to find his chin with anything of merit. Li sits down on a right hand, Rodriguez throws back with a vengeance. The slow-paced match comes to a merciful close after 15 minutes, but these two deserve all the props – and Li more than anyone else tonight – for taking this difficult opponent switch in stride.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Jingliang Li via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.
Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.
Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.
Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.
The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 40 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 33 of 67 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 36 | 30% | 12 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 21 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 28 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 12 of 34 | 35% | 12 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 38 of 87 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 12 of 18 | 13 of 20 | 30 of 75 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 23 of 56 | 41% | 18 of 48 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 11 of 36 | 30% | 2 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 8 of 13 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 27 of 51 | 52% | 11 of 30 | 11 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 12 of 34 | 35% | 10 of 31 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-175), Li (+150)
Round 1
A place in the top 15 at the ultra-competitive welterweight division will serve as the prize for this “featured” fight of the night. Already the #14 fighter according to the UFC, China’s Li (18-7, 10-5 UFC) will try to keep an iron grip on his ranking spot against the confidently nicknamed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (18-2, 5-1 UFC). While Salikhov has earned two-thirds of his career wins by knockout, “The Leech” has never been stopped by strikes, although Salikhov will put that to the test. Referee Dan Miragliotta keeps things on the up-and-up, even as gloves are touched before his eyes. Both fighters circle one another for a time, until Li sits down on a single leg kick. Salikhov answers him with a spinning wheel kick that hammers into the guard. A lull in the action again ensues, until Li darts forward with two looping punches. When those do not land, a leg kick does. Li jabs to the body, and he lifts his leg up but Salikhov still kicks it and makes him spin around. Salikhov jumps with a knee, and then spins with an untelegraphed spinning back kick that Li jumps back and avoids. The spinning strikes are likely going to be the weapon of choice for the Dagestan native for much of this fight. As Li kicks low, Salikhov rushes forward, lifts up the leg and slams the Chinese fighter down to the mat. Li keeps his guard high and tight, shutting down most of the offense that could come at him, and this draws a warning from Miragliotta. Salikhov stacks Li up to break out of the guard, and Li smacks Salikhov with an illegal but uncalled upkick. Salikhov stands back up, and he spins with a back kick that partially lands on the body. Salikhov checks a kick and is well out of harm’s way when Li throws one high. Salikhov swarms forward, but he backs off as Li is ready to greet him with a short right hand. The spinning back fist from Salikhov misses the mark, as Li anticipates it. A spinning back kick from the Russian connects with the arm of his foe, and Li bounces back and forth until trying to sweep the leg. Li wings a left hook, and Salikhov is slick and avoiding everything that soars at or past him. Salikhov sinks a leg kick home on the inside of the knee, and he stuffs an oncoming takedown as the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up to start off the second round, and crowd is ready for action and possibly spoiled due to the madness from the Mudaerji-Schnell fight. These two answer the call with a few big punches, and Salikhov catches a leg and knocks Li off his feet with a big left hand. When Li gets up, he just manages to avoid a spinning wheel kick that would have knocked his block off. Li continues coming forward, avoiding a few punches on the way in and swinging his way to close the distance. Salikhov sneaks away but absorbs a jab on the way out. Salikhov come up short with an uppercut from the “Mortal Kombat” playbook, and Li thanks his lucky stars that he did not absorb that momentous blow. The accuracy rates are likely low in this match, as both men are putting almost everything into one-hitter quitters. Li misses with a winging punch, and Salikhov answers him with a low kick. Salikhov checks another kick, and he finds himself facing a body lock takedown attempt. Li manages to wrestle him down, where he lands in half guard but cannot keep him there for more than a few seconds. Salikhov gets up and does not absorb any damage or find himself in danger from any submission, and he plants a one-two on the chin as Li leans over to avoid it. The spinning kick from Salikhov is slower than before, and Li sees it coming from a distance and keeps that distance to avoid it. Li looks for a short counter as Salikhov blitzes him, and Salikhov still connects with a clean right. The spinning kick for Salikhov grazes off the midsection, with Li bouncing back to evade the brunt of the damage.
Li, irritated by the pace, winds up with a monstrous right hand that slams straight into the face of the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov is in a bad way as he staggers back, and Li gives him chase and nails him with another. When Salikhov is about to gather himself, Li bullies him back to the wall and ducks down with a jab to the body. Li lets go with a left hook and follows it with a destructive right that sends Salikhov collapsing down to the mat. Knowing the finish is in sight, “The Leech” leaps down and sucks the life out of Salikhov with a pair of ferocious elbows.
Seeing that Salikhov is done like dinner, Miragliotta moves in and stops the fight, even as Salikhov sits up and shrugs at the finishing sequence. This is a solid bounceback victory for Li, who leaps to the top of the cage and holds a Chinese flag high.
The Official Result
Jingliang Li def. Muslim Salikhov R2 4:38 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo picks Muslim Salikhov confidently, citing his technical striking, power, and takedown threats. He dismisses Li Jingliang as overrated and notes Salikhov's win over Trinaldo. He placed a moneyline bet at -170 and hopes for line movement.
Big Brady picks Li Jingliang (the Leech) to win by decision, taking the underdog. He notes that Salikhov is a great striker but has low volume and poor cardio, while Li has better cardio and volume. He thinks Li can take over as the fight goes on and possibly mix in takedowns. He admits it's a tough fight to pick and has low confidence.
Cody is leaning towards Li Jingliang as an underdog, citing Salikhov's low volume, questionable cardio, and history of pulling out of fights. He notes that Li has never been knocked out in the UFC and brings a high pace that could overwhelm Salikhov. However, he admits he doesn't have high confidence and acknowledges Salikhov's path to victory via takedowns.
Daniel Levi leans Muslim Salikhov, citing his discipline, counter-striking, and improved wrestling. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and durability but believes Salikhov can win a decision by pacing himself and avoiding brawls. Levi notes Salikhov must be careful of Li's power and that the fight is high variance.
Paul picks Salikhov, believing he can mix in takedowns to exploit Li's ground game, as seen in Li's losses to Khamzat Chimaev and others. He notes Salikhov's striking is excellent and that he has shown the ability to take down opponents like Francisco Trinaldo. Paul thinks Salikhov's path to victory is clear and that he covers the -160 price.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang over Muslim Salikhov, citing Li's power, chin, and cardio advantage. He notes Salikhov's age (38) and unimpressive recent performances, including a close fight with Francisco Trinaldo. He believes Li's unorthodox striking and durability will lead to a decision win or a late finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 25 of 25 | 100% | 58 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 | 0 | 3:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 25 of 25 | 100% | 58 of 62 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 3 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khamzat Chimaev | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 25 | 100% | 25 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khamzat Chimaev | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 25 | 100% | 25 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 24 |
Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by second-round submission. He is very confident, citing Chimaev's dominant performances and wrestling. Li has poor takedown defense (59%) and has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. The only concerns are Chimaev's cardio if the fight extends and the layoff, but he expects an early finish. He agrees with the line.
Cody is all in on Chimaev, noting the layoff might have improved his cardio. He thinks Chimaev's pace and wrestling will be too much for Li, who has poor takedown defense (59%). He expects Chimaev to take him down at will and grind him out. He calls it a 'perfect stylistic matchup'.
Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing his wrestling and power. He acknowledges Li Jingliang's knockout power and history of upsets but believes Chimaev's wrestling will be a big factor. Daniel notes Li takes damage early and has been dropped in fights. He expects Chimaev to grind out a win, possibly by late ground-and-pound stoppage, but warns the line is too high to bet.
Chimaev should dominate with his wrestling and pressure, but there are concerns about his recovery from COVID and potential cardio issues. He likely finishes early, so the under 1.5 rounds or inside distance are better bets than the moneyline. Li is durable and could capitalize if Chimaev fades.
Paul is confident in Chimaev, calling it a 'smash full out'. He notes Li has been taken down by Neil Magny and others, and Chimaev's wrestling will dominate. He thinks the moneyline is safer than inside distance because Chimaev mixes KOs and submissions. He would be stunned if Chimaev loses.
The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by submission. He highlights Chimaev's superior grappling and size, noting that Li Jingliang has been outgrappled by lesser grapplers like Neil Magny, Jake Matthews, and Sean Brady. He thinks Chimaev's wrestling and pressure will make Li hesitant to throw. He predicts a second-round rear-naked choke after Chimaev outgrapples Li.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 11 of 18 | 61% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 14 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 11 of 18 | 61% | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 21 of 50 | 42% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 14 | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.
Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.
Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 74 of 139 | 53% | 123 of 188 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:04 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 16 of 62 | 25% | 16 of 65 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 21 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 26 of 42 | 61% | 58 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:07 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 36 of 65 | 55% | 44 of 73 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 7 of 35 | 20% | 7 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 74 of 139 | 53% | 56 of 118 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 34 of 96 | 18 of 20 | 22 of 23 |
| Li Jingliang | 16 of 62 | 25% | 11 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 13 of 53 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 8 of 23 | 34% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 26 of 42 | 61% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 28 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 36 of 65 | 55% | 25 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 22 |
| Li Jingliang | 7 of 35 | 20% | 5 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel is confident Li Jingliang will dominate Neil Magny, citing Magny's decline and inability to handle pressure and low kicks. He notes that Magny has been blown out by relevant opponents and that his last significant win was half a decade ago. He believes Li will chop Magny down with low kicks and close the distance to hurt him, winning a decision or getting a knockout.
Magny has a huge reach advantage (80 vs 72 inches) and excellent cardio. He will use his jab, kicks, and occasional takedowns to outpoint Li. Li is powerful but lacks pressure; Magny's veteran savvy should carry him to a decision. The host considered betting Li but sees too many X-factors. He likes Magny at plus money and may bet 0.75 units if odds reach +175.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang, citing his recent activity, momentum, and youth advantage over Neil Magny, who hasn't fought since a KO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in 2018. He notes Li's win over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos was impressive and expects Li to finish Magny in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 59 of 128 | 46% | 59 of 128 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 54 of 160 | 33% | 55 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 25 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 2 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 19 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 59 of 128 | 46% | 45 of 108 | 4 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 47 of 113 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 54 of 160 | 33% | 23 of 114 | 21 of 33 | 10 of 13 | 51 of 156 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 11 of 39 | 28% | 1 of 22 | 5 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 24 of 56 | 42% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 25 of 64 | 39% | 10 of 47 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 23 of 49 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 16 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 18 of 57 | 31% | 12 of 45 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 89 of 222 | 40% | 97 of 234 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| David Zawada | 1 | 73 of 184 | 39% | 74 of 185 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 21 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| David Zawada | 1 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 0 | 40 of 97 | 41% | 40 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| David Zawada | 0 | 31 of 83 | 37% | 31 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 1 | 36 of 84 | 42% | 36 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| David Zawada | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Li Jingliang | 89 of 222 | 40% | 59 of 183 | 10 of 11 | 20 of 28 | 81 of 204 | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 |
| David Zawada | 73 of 184 | 39% | 52 of 159 | 19 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 63 of 162 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Jingliang | 13 of 41 | 31% | 10 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| David Zawada | 24 of 55 | 43% | 15 of 46 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 40 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 2 | |
| 2 | Li Jingliang | 40 of 97 | 41% | 23 of 77 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 40 of 95 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| David Zawada | 31 of 83 | 37% | 22 of 72 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 80 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Li Jingliang | 36 of 84 | 42% | 26 of 70 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 32 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| David Zawada | 18 of 46 | 39% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 42 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Santiago Ponzinibbio - Fight History
AJ does not make a pick for this fight. He mentions Patterson's potential but does not commit to a prediction, only noting that Patterson had a tough matchup with MVP.
Angelo thinks Patterson is not good but good enough to beat an aging Ponzinibbio who has been knocked out in three of his last losses. He notes Patterson's length and power can control range and potentially find a finish. He finds the 4-to-1 odds absurd but is confident Patterson wins.
Big Brady picks Patterson to win by first-round knockout, hoping he actually fights this time after a pathetic performance against MVP. He notes Ponzinibbio is 39, has taken a lot of damage, and his durability is gone, having been knocked out recently. He believes Patterson has power and will catch Ponzinibbio coming forward, leading to a first-round finish.
James picks Patterson to win by KO in round one, citing Ponzinibbio's decline due to age and slow reaction times. He thinks Patterson will be more aggressive after criticism of his last fight and will finish the faded Ponzinibbio. He notes Patterson's own chin issues but believes he can get the job done early. He also suggests betting under 1.5 rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-122), Rodriguez (+102)
Round 1
A couple of welterweight action merchants draw feature bout duty at UFC Des Moines, as “The Argentine Dagger” and “D-Rod” prepare to slug it out. The third man in the Octagon, charged with possibly protecting one or both of these battle-hardened 38-year-olds from their own toughness, is Kevin Macdonald. Ponzinibbio sets up in orthodox, Rodriguez southpaw, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches as they nearly collide in the first seconds. A minute in, neither man has landed anything solid, but Rodriguez plants his feet and catches the advancing Ponzinibbio with a nice jab to the body. Scattered “whoos” can be heard as the two remain deliberate and tactical through the first half of Round 1. Ponzinibbio connects with a hard body kick that has “D-Rod” reacting visibly. Rodriguez stalks forward again and Ponzinibbio meets him with another body kick, this one a front kick to the midsection. Ponzinibbio steps forward and tries another kick, but slips on the attempt and Rodriguez pounces, clocking him with a left hand to the jaw that staggers him. Ponzinibbio retreats, trying to regain his wits, as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez lands a couple more good punches, but Ponzinibbio recovers before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Ponzinibbio appears to be back in possession of his faculties as they engage to open Round 2, but Rodriguez is clearly loading up his left hand, hoping to go back to that well at some point. Ponzinibbio lands a solid right to the chin, which Rodriguez eats, returning fire with a left cross. Whether because of the Round 1 slip or for some other reason, Ponzinibbio is not nearly as aggressive with his kicks through the first two minutes of the round. Left to relying on his boxing, he is getting the worse of most of the exchanges. Ponzinibbio steps in and misses just short with a big right hand, then comes back with another one that glances off the chin. Rodriguez’s movements are looking a bit labored halfway through the round. Ponzinibbio closes the distance and shoots for a takedown. Rodriguez ends up with his back against the fence, where Ponzinibbio cannot complete the takedown. They move off the fence and Ponzinibbio shoots again, this time bringing “D-Rod” to the canvas. The 10-second clapper sounds as they hit the floor, and the horn sounds before either man can put in any significant work.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Given the close nature of Round 2, it might be anyone’s fight for the taking on the judges’ scorecards, and Ponzinibbio strikes first with an overhand right. Rodriguez continues to breathe with his mouth open, but he is far from done, wading into the pocket and connecting with a left cross.
Rodriguez hits Ponzinibbio with a body kick, then a few seconds later, crushes him with a four-punch combination, finishing with a left hook that puts his foe down. Referee Macdonald, in perfect position to see Ponzinibbio’s eyes, recognizes that “The Argentine Dagger” is done and jumps in for the save as Rodriguez pounces to put in the coffin nails.
Ponzinibbio gets up and protests the stoppage, but his case is undermined by the fact that he goes stumbling across the cage and runs chest-first into the fence. Fantastic finish by Daniel Rodriguez, just at the point that the momentum of the fight appeared to be turning.
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 1:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 76 of 175 | 43% | 76 of 175 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 73 of 196 | 37% | 78 of 211 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 1 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 37 of 79 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 70 | 38% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 28 of 86 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Carlston Harris | 0 | 8 of 31 | 25% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 76 of 175 | 43% | 57 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 72 of 165 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 73 of 196 | 37% | 40 of 142 | 19 of 39 | 14 of 15 | 73 of 195 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 48 | 45% | 13 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 37 of 79 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 8 of 18 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 70 | 38% | 21 of 62 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlston Harris | 28 of 86 | 32% | 15 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 57 | 47% | 23 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 |
| Carlston Harris | 8 of 31 | 25% | 5 of 25 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-headlining spot, two action welterweights throw down with aspirations of making one last run in a division unkind to the elderly. At the age of 38, Ponzinibbio (29-8, 11-7 UFC) knows his back is against the wall, and four losses in his last five fights do not help his case. Harris (19-6, 4-2 UFC), at 37, is not in as dire of a roster situation, but his chin was checked by Kalinn Williams last year in a gnarly way. The exciting combatants will collide as referee Kerry Hatley watches on, aware that this one could end with one concussive blow. There is a glove touch first, and Ponzinibbio stalks down the taller man early on. Harris tries to use his range to jab out and keep Ponzinibbio away, and he kicks at the front leg as well. Ponzinibbio jabs him back, brushing past a left hook to rifle off a one-two on the chin. Ponzinibbio goes to the body with another one-two, and Harris hops back and forth while kicking the plant leg again. Ponzinibbio connects at the end of a right hand, and Harris counters well enough to make Ponzinibbio reset. Harris jabs to the head and midsection, and his right hook brushes the waist. When Ponzinibbio sells out for a hook, Harris shoots even lower for a takedown, but the effort is for naught as he is completely shut down. Ponzinibbio further backs him away with a one-two and a low kick, and he blocks the head kick that zips at his melon. Harris gets off a short left hook to the ribs, and he aims another to the same spot. Ponzinibbio sways and moves, evading the worst of the strikes and lobbing big right hands back at the lankier man. They clash legs together when kicking, and Ponzinibbio scores and takes fire as they trade leather. A one-two from Ponzinibbio leads to a takedown effort from “Mocambique,” but Harris still cannot get him down. Instead, it is the power left from Harris that gets Ponzinibbio’s attention, staggering the fighter from Argentina after a blitz. Harris lobs a big right hand that puts Ponzinibbio to the ground, and he somehow opens a cut on the back of Ponzinibbio’s head wrapping the strike around him. Harris drills Ponzinibbio with a one-two that sets him down, and Ponzinibbio scrambles and gets to his feet. A kick from Harris nearly puts Ponzinibbio down again, and he gets up and clutches the back of his head as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Harris
Round 2
The welterweights touch ‘em up, with Ponzinibbio appearing to have his feet beneath him again. Harris does not blitz him, instead jabbing to the body and measuring with his clubbing left hook head of winding it up. Ponzinibbio works the front leg twice to turn Harris about, and he sways away from a hook aimed his direction. Ponzinibbio walks through a low kick to put two punches on Harris’ chin, and Harris tanks them and responds in kind. Ponzinibbio blazes out with a one-two, and the right side of Harris’ face is bloodied up and swelling from absorbing strikes. Harris ducks a big left hand, and a jab draws blood from his mouth. The Argentinian doubles up on a jab and follows with a right that gets Harris’ attention, and Harris shoots for a takedown that is stopped in its tracks. Harris digs an uppercut to the body when Ponzinibbio bends over, and Ponzinibbio clubs him back with an overhand right. Splitting the guard with a right hand, Ponzinibbio gets through, but Harris knocks him back and then drops him with a jab. Ponzinibbio bounces up to his feet as if he had springs in his shorts, and he gets right in Harris’ face to keep throwing hands. Harris uses his longer range to chew up Ponzinibbio from his own preferred distance, and a leg kick from Harris disrupts Ponzinibbio’s movement briefly. Because of this, Ponzinibbio winds up and misses with a right hand, and he is in the wrong spot when Harris catches him with a right hook over the top. Harris digs to lefts to the liver to follow, and Ponzinibbio goes to the sternum with a left hand. They trade hooks at the same time, and their chins hold up even though they are taking massive damage at this point. Harris kicks, his foot is caught, and he still loops a left hand at his man. Ponzinibbio swings back with a vengeance, and Harris’ jab keeps him honest. Ponzinibbio comes up short with a one-two, and the horn sounds at matching lands.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Round 3
To the surprise of some, the fighters have reached the third round, and they high-five to celebrate their handiwork. Harris commences the round with a tackling takedown effort, and Ponzinibbio pitches him out of the way like a farmer tossing sacks of grain around. Harris rolls to his back and welcomes Ponzinibbio into the guard, and he forces a scramble that allows him to fight to his feet. They resets in kickboxing range, with Ponzinibbio loading up on right hands as he chases after Harris. Harris lets loose with a right hand that buzzes past his target, and both men land cleanly with power. Harris jabs the body and absorbs a one-two to the chest, and he slips when advancing but does not lose his footing. Harris doubles up on body shots with his left hook, and he kicks the same spot. Ponzinibbio scores with a big left and a heavy right, rocking Harris badly. Harris wobbles back, absorbing another fierce right hand on the jaw, and he is somehow on his feet despite getting blasted. Ponzinibbio unloads everything he has, setting Harris down, and Harris tries to engage his grappling as a safety valve. Ponzinibbio wants nothing to do with it and backs off to let Harris up, and he connects with looping lethal strikes. Harris gets rocked from one side of the cage to the other, but he is still in the fight and swings back with reckless abandon.
Ponzinibbio sets him down to a knee with a clubbing power shot, and Hatley rushes forward but pulls back before stopping the fight. Harris stands back up and lets his hands go, and during an exchange, Hatley inexplicably gets between them to stop the fight and save Harris from further punishment.
Harris is understandably upset because even though he took massive damage and was on baby deer legs, he was engaging and striking his opponent. Like the odd stoppage in the Curtis fight, the protests from the losing fighter fall on deaf ears. Ponzinibbio leaps out of the cage to high-five the commentary booth, and Harris quickly regains his cool and is all smiles after an uproarious battle.
The Official Result
Santiago Ponzinibbio def. Carlston Harris R3 3:13 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, citing his speed, cleaner striking, and better cardio. He notes that Carlston Harris has more power and aggressive grappling, but believes Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure will win. He expresses concern about Ponzinibbio's commentating job potentially distracting him, but still picks him. He mentions Ponzinibbio was an underdog but may flip to favorite.
Big Brady likes Harris's grappling advantage, noting his elite submission game and front chokes. He thinks Ponzinibbio's chin is declining, having been knocked out by the Leech and Kevin Holland. He believes Harris has more ways to win, either by submission or a club-and-sub. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop, as both guys have poor durability and can finish each other.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio despite his recent 2-5 record, arguing that Harris is also flawed with poor takedown accuracy and stiff striking. He believes Ponzinibbio's veteran savvy, range, and power will allow him to land first. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds, expecting a knockout.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio because Harris is fundamentally bad at MMA, relying on wild aggression and grappling without structure. Ponzinibbio is a good defensive wrestler and strong in the clinch, and his straight punches and footwork make him difficult to clinch against. While Ponzinibbio is older and slower, he still has a process and toughness, and his losses have come against sharp strikers, not wild punchers like Harris. Connor notes that if Ponzinibbio loses, it would be his worst loss since 2011.
Daniel notes both fighters are washed up and chinny, but historically Ponzinibbio was one fight away from a title shot and has better credentials. He thinks Ponzinibbio's experience and jab/straight right will be enough, though he's not confident. He mentions Harris has dangerous front chokes but Ponzinibbio rarely shoots. He picks Ponzinibbio to win and retire.
Lucrative James gives a lean toward Santiago Ponzinibbio, but admits he hasn't done extensive research. He believes Ponzinibbio is the better striker and can defend takedowns, while Harris's best chance is an early knockout. He predicts a decision win for Ponzinibbio in a lackluster fight. He cautions that this is an early read and he may not bet it.
Ponzinibbio's technical striking should allow him to pick apart Harris and eventually find a knockout, but he must be wary of Harris's big power and reckless swinging. As long as Ponzinibbio's speed hasn't diminished, he should find openings to put Harris away.
Paul leans toward Harris as a slight plus-money underdog, citing Ponzinibbio's age and damage absorbed. He notes Harris's crafty submission game and power, but admits both are flawed. He prefers the under 2.5 rounds as a bet rather than the moneyline.
The Guru picks Ponzinibbio despite questioning why this is a co-main event. He notes Ponzinibbio's split decision loss to Muslim Salikhov and leg kicks against Holland, and his win over Alex Morono. He contrasts Harris's inactivity, age (37), and KO loss to Chaos Williams. He acknowledges Ponzinibbio's recent chinny reputation but thinks he's good enough to beat Harris.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ponzinibbio has not lost his innate understanding of how to fight and is still tough. He points out that Ponzinibbio's recent losses are to elite fighters, and he has competed well against fringe contenders. Harris, despite being a natural athlete, has poor technique and has never been that good. Zane also mentions that Ponzinibbio's pattern of slow starts and strong finishes could be a factor, but Harris is unlikely to capitalize early.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 41 of 117 | 35% | 42 of 118 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 46 of 121 | 38% | 69 of 146 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 14 of 43 | 32% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 16 of 45 | 35% | 16 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 16 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muslim Salikhov | 41 of 117 | 35% | 31 of 102 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 40 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 46 of 121 | 38% | 20 of 87 | 20 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 45 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muslim Salikhov | 14 of 43 | 32% | 9 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 17 of 37 | 45% | 7 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muslim Salikhov | 16 of 45 | 35% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 14 of 48 | 29% | 7 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muslim Salikhov | 11 of 29 | 37% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 36 | 41% | 6 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-205), Salikhov (+170)
Round 1
From one pair of knockout artists to another we go, this time in the welterweight division. The co-main event presents powerful Argentinian Ponzinibbio (29-7, 11-6 UFC) against the self-proclaimed “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-5, 6-4 UFC), and both men celebrate the majority of their victories via strikes. Unfortunately for the aging 170ers, they have each gone 1-3 in their last four, so a win would mean keeping things going while a defeat might push them closer towards the end. Referee Dan Miragliotta will be the third man in the Octagon, and he steps back as the heavy hitters touch ‘em up. Ponzinibbio pushes the pace early, jabbing his way forward only to get pushed back by a front kick. Salikhov delivers a solid kick to the body as he shifts to the side, and he lands one on the lead leg and has a head kick blocked right after. Ponzinibbio whiffs on a low kick, and Salikhov leaps at him with a left hook that grazes the jaw. Salikhov tries that strike again, and Ponzinibbio sees it coming and parries it, following with a high kick. Salikhov blocks it and gives him one back, and that too bounces off the guard. Salikhov lands a body kick backing up, and he cannot get away from a jab to his ribs. Salikhov spins with no telegraphing and has it ricochet off the shoulder, and he bursts his way into a short combo of punches. Ponzinibbio lands with two of three punches on his way forward, catching the Russian and bullying him back to the wire. Ponzinibbio lands a calf kick and protects his mug from an overhand right, and he ducks a spinning back fist and stumbles—not from absorbing the blow, but from dodging it. Ponzinibbio wags his finger to signal the strike did not land, and he recovers and stays evasive to not get caught with subsequent strikes from the “King of Kung Fu.” Salikhov connects with a left hand, and Ponzinibbio counters and drops Salikhov. The Russian gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is marching him down winding up with serious power. Salikhov drives him back with a solid uppercut, but not before a cut opens up on the inner eyebrow. Both men appear to slip on the canvas surface but not because of damage, and they race at one another to trade. Salikhov lands a heavy right hand, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Round 2
The fighters clap hands to begin the second stanza, and Salikhov takes two attempts to blitz forward and pulls back each time. He then spins with a wheel kick that buzzes past the jaw, and he keeps spinning, this time with a back fist. Ponzinibbio backs him away with a few jabs and a head kick, and he pushes aside a front kick to wing a right hand. Salikhov scores two left hooks before spinning with a back kick to the ribs, and Ponzinibbio no-sells it and tries to respond with a left. Salikhov has another spin broken up when Ponzinibbio rushes him, and they bounce off one another and reset. Salikhov jabs out with his toes outstretched, and they tag one another with punches. Ponzinibbio appears to get the worse of a left hand, and Salikhov gives chase and swarms him with big punches. Ponzinibbio absorbs a spinning wheel kick, where even while blocked it further staggers him. Ponzinibbio rebounds off the fencing and finds his footing again, and he swings his way forward to close the distance and stay out of kicking range. Salikhov responds with a looping right hook that does not connect and a low kick that does. Salikhov tries another wheel kick, but Ponzinibbio is wise to it and gets up close and personal. The Russian allows him to do this so he can time an uppercut, and he plants the ball of his foot on Ponzinibbio’s sternum for good measure. Ponzinibbio drives home a one-two, and Salikhov trips him up with a takedown effort. Salikhov cannot keep him down, and they return upright to trade hands. The Argentinian fighter swings inaccurately with two hooks, and his foe answers him with a front kick and a leaping punch. Salikhov has a left hook parried, and he jumps forward with a second that is ducked. Spinning with a kick to the body, Salikhov lands the strike but finds himself on his seat a moment later when Ponzinibbio surprises him with a takedown. Ponzinibbio hangs on until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 3
The fighters shake hands and bro-hug to commence the last round, and strikes are soon to follow. Salikhov lands a swiping left hook and hops back to avoid a low kick, and the Argentinian ducks to avoid a second. Salikhov spams front kicks, and Ponzinibbio lets fly a right hook that bangs into the temple. Salikhov wears it well and is jabbed back by subsequent strikes, but he gathers steam and marches forward landing a front kick. Both fighters trade hooks, and Salikhov dodges a leg kick and spins with a wheel kick that does not connect. A trio of punches from the Russian do not find their home, and he whips a left hook that grazes the top of his foe’s head. Ponzinibbio rushes after him with a pair of punches and is pushed back by a teep kick, only to crash the pocket and push “King of Kung Fu” to the cage wall. Salikhov breaks away and strafes one direction and then the other, and he has a telegraphed left hook miss the mark by a wide margin. Ponzinibbio attempts a single that is easily stopped, although he does manage to put Salikhov against the cage wall. A second attempt manages to bring Salikhov to his knees, and he drapes himself over Salikhov while keeping him on a single knee. Salikhov takes a seat, and Ponzinibbio thinks about moving around to take the back but decides instead to pursue top position. Ponzinibbio slows the fight to a crawl by holding the Russian down, and Salikhov sucks wind and tries with all his might to stand. He eventually gets back to his feet, and Ponzinibbio is dead set on getting that takedown again. The last try fails, and the close fight ends in a clinch while the crowd showers them with boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
The Official Result
Muslim Salikhov def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he will dominate the striking exchanges and that Muslim Salikhov will fade at elevation. He notes that both fighters are older and coming off losses, but Ponzinibbio's volume and range management should be key. He thinks the odds are too wide for a favorite and would only bet if the line moves to around -120.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant, noting both fighters are past their prime and have cardio issues at altitude. He thinks Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will outwork Salikhov, but fears Salikhov could land a big shot late. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.
Daniel Vreeland picks Muslim Salikhov to upset Santiago Ponzinibbio. He believes Ponzinibbio has never been the same after a severe bacterial infection, losing speed and durability. He notes that both fighters are past their primes, but at the odds, he prefers the underdog Salikhov. He mentions that Ponzinibbio's recent performances have been poor, including a life-and-death fight with Miguel Baeza and knockout losses. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and goes with Salikhov.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is slightly favored. He is a bit faster and slicker with his shots. Durability is shaky on both sides, but Ponzinibbio's speed should allow him to land the first big shot and put Salikhov away. The line has dropped from -220 to -180, still a bit wide.
Paul picks Ponzinibbio but is cautious, citing Salikhov's power and cardio concerns for both. He believes Ponzinibbio's speed and volume will be key, but acknowledges the fight could end violently for either. He expects a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 1 | 66 of 197 | 33% | 67 of 198 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 44 of 104 | 42% | 44 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 23 of 78 | 29% | 24 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 1 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 66 of 197 | 33% | 24 of 138 | 11 of 23 | 31 of 36 | 62 of 187 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 4 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 44 of 104 | 42% | 12 of 58 | 7 of 19 | 25 of 27 | 44 of 101 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 29 of 70 | 41% | 7 of 41 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 17 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 3 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 13 of 38 | 34% | 2 of 20 | 2 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kevin Holland | 23 of 78 | 29% | 11 of 61 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 43 | 34% | 4 of 26 | 4 of 9 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kevin Holland | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 16 of 23 | 69% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 9 | 16 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-245), Ponzinibbio (+205)
Round 1
Since making his promotional debut in August 2018, “Trailblazer” Holland (23-9, 1 NC; 10-6, 1 NC UFC) has competed in the Octagon a whopping 17 times to date. His 18th outing will come in a striker’s delight against Argentine slugger Ponzinibbio (29-6, 11-5 UFC), and bonus money may be up for grabs here. Referee Dan Miragliotta is charged up for this welterweight clash, and he will be watching out to make sure he does not take an errant strike. Ready to have fun, the two bump fists, and Holland backs off to find his range. Holland, with eight inches to his advantage on his hands, uses his similarly lanky legs to push off. Ponzinibbio sits down on a chopping leg kick to slow the movement of Holland down, to which Holland responds with a left hook and a jab. Ponzinibbio attacks the lead leg again, and Holland fires off a jab and a body kick. Ponzinibbio checks a kick, and he attacks the right leg a few times after Holland switches stances. Holland swats out with a left, and he counters when Ponzinibbio crashes the pocket. A Holland jab makes Ponzinibbio slip when the latter throws out a low kick, and he climbs back up without concern. Holland chops at the front leg of the Argentine fighter, and it gets checked. Holland whips a kick up high that careens off the guard, and he blocks a body kick. Holland stays active with punches and kicks, and he shoulder rolls and retreats when Ponzinibbio gives chase. They clash legs at the same time, and Holland opens up with three calf kicks. Holland springs into action with a darting jab, and changes his stances instead of following up and getting countered. Ponzinibbio winds up with a few haymaker right hands, and when he misses, Holland starts talking to him. Ponzinibbio just misses with a right hook, and Holland able to narrowly evade them and block a counter left. Four punches allow Ponzinibbio to partially get through the guard, and Holland lifts his leg up after getting kicked. Holland throws kicks from body legs, and Ponzinibbio catches it and looks to slug it out. Holland releases a backfist that knocks Ponzinibbio clean off his feet, and he drops down a few punches to a downed Ponzinibbio until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 2
The welterweight clap hands to get the second round started, and Holland leads the dance and walks into a few leg kicks. “Trailblazer” sets up his jab, using his reach to back Ponzinibbio off. Holland sneaks in a low kick and blocks a high kick, and he just misses a huge left hand. Ponzinibbio steps in with an elbow, and he escapes before a counter finds him. Holland targets the knee wit ha stomp kick, and pushes off with the ball of his foot to the chest. Ponzinibbio misses the dome by a matter of inches with a huge left hand, and Holland kicks at him from both legs. Holland dips back to fire a left hand, and Ponzinibbio chew up his foe’s leg with kicks. The Texan walks his opponent down and absorbs a big right hand and a sweeping kick, and he swats out with a few lefts. Holland grins after dodging a huge left hand, and he takes a leg kick flush. Holland gets checked when kicking the calf, and Ponzinibbio catches another kick but is not back fisted this time. Ponzinibbio strings a few punches together, only for Holland to roll with them. Holland’s jab works well, and he keeps Ponzinibbio at bay but cannot stop the calf kicks. Holland stalks his opponent down, striking with front kicks and a right hand. Holland gets Ponzinibbio’s attention with a few right hands in a series, and Ponzinibbio clinches up with him to get his bearings. Holland allows this to knee his man in the jaw, and he pushes off to gain some space. Ponzinibbio swings with all his might with three looping punches, and Holland dodges all of them. Holland meets Ponzinibbio coming in with an elbow, and he makes Ponzinibbio hit nothing but air and looks to his imaginary watch to taunt his inaccurate opponent. The round ends after this motion.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Round 3
Before the third round opens, Holland talks to someone outside of the cage. When it does, Holland reaches out to clap hands, and Ponzinibbio obliges him. Holland strikes first with a kick, and he chops at the lead calf and is answered with two back. “Trainblazer” flicks out a few jabs, and he blocks a winging left hook but does not defend against a brutal kick that destabilizes his balance. Holland loads up on a few right hands and kicks the thigh, and he jumps into punches while struggling to put weight on his left leg. Holland switches stances, and Ponzinibbio greets him with a high kick on that side. A kick from Holland appears to get Ponzinibbio’s attention, who slips, and Holland motions to make sure his opponent is ok. Ponzinibbio is good to go, and he winds up with a powerful kick to the calf. Holland grits it out and spins with a wheel kick, and Ponzinibbio plants his feet and throws bombs. Holland walks into a vicious kick that almost buckles his knees, and he tosses out a front kick to keep Ponzinibbio honest. “Argentina Dagger” fires a kick to the other lead leg, and he checks the ones that come back his way. Holland gets clubbed with a left, and he side kicks the body. Holland catches a low kick and rings the bell with a right hand, and Ponzinibbio hops back and is in trouble. Holland races after him, and he unloads a left hook that would knock down a heavyweight. Ponzinibbio falls down to the ground, face-first, and Holland belts him with one single follow-up blow before Miragliotta jumps in to wave off the faceplanting knockout. Knowing his work is done, Holland jumps out of the cage and rushes over to White and Trump, where he tells them that he has a broken right hand. He climbs back in the cage, and tells Ponzinibbio that kicking him hurt his own feet. In his post-fight interview, Holland says that if Jorge Masvidal does not retire after tonight, he would like to challenge for the “BMF” title.
The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 3:16 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland but is avoiding bets because he wants to see how Holland looks after the Wonder Boy loss. He notes that Holland is a good grappler and accurate striker, but his takedown defense is poor. He thinks Holland should win, but Ponzinibbio is a good technical striker who could make it tough.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, citing Holland's durability and Ponzinibbio's recent decline. He notes that Ponzinibbio was hurt multiple times by Alex Morono and knocked out by Li Jingliang. He predicts a second-round KO, but admits he doesn't fully trust Holland due to his low fight IQ.
Cody also picks Ponzinibbio but is hesitant. He notes Holland's poor decision-making and the respect books give him, making the line too high. Cody points out Ponzinibbio's durability questions and age but sees value at +200. He mentions that Ponzinibbio is fighting in his backyard in Florida and that Holland's minus 235 price is disrespectful. Cody is not sure if he'll bet it but makes the pick for the show.
Connor picks Holland because Ponzinibbio has become a slow starter who gets hurt in every fight. Holland is fast, hits hard, and is fearless, so he will likely land a big shot early. Ponzinibbio may rally later, but his early deficits are too large to overcome. Connor notes that Holland's defense has deteriorated at welterweight, but his durability and confidence make him a tough out. He also mentions that Ponzinibbio's fragility is the real concern, as he gets hurt basically every fight now.
Jacob is confident in Kevin Holland, noting that the UFC gave him a winnable fight. He points out that Holland put Wonder Boy on skates in the first round, and if he lands those shots on Ponzinibbio, he will knock him out. He believes Holland is a better, longer, and more powerful striker, and will get the job done.
Holland has speed and power but is coming off a hand injury and fighting compromised. Ponzinibbio is slower post-layoff but still has veteran savvy and power. I think Holland's speed and power advantage will find Ponzinibbio's chin, but the hand injury is a major red flag. I prefer the fight doesn't go to decision prop over betting Holland straight.
Paul takes Ponzinibbio as a plus-money underdog, though hesitantly. He notes Ponzinibbio is always competitive against top welterweights, with close split decisions against Jeff Neal and Michel Pereira. Paul criticizes Kevin Holland's poor fight IQ, referencing the Stephen Thompson fight where Holland let him up. He believes Ponzinibbio, training in Florida with the crowd behind him, has a real chance. However, he acknowledges Ponzinibbio is 36 and may have declined.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round TKO via straight right hand. He expects Ponzinibbio to have success early with leg kicks and jabs, but Holland will time a right hand as Ponzinibbio throws a kick, rocking him badly. He predicts Holland will finish with ground and pound in round two around the three-minute mark.
Zane picks Holland because Ponzinibbio starts slow and has become fragile. Holland will be aggressive and throw hammers, and Ponzinibbio won't be able to catch up early. Zane notes that Ponzinibbio can still rally and has diverse striking, but his early deficits are too much. He also mentions that Holland's gas tank and hand injury are concerns, but Ponzinibbio's inability to start fast is the deciding factor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 66 of 155 | 42% | 66 of 155 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 38 of 131 | 29% | 38 of 131 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 22 of 42 | 52% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 1 | 17 of 55 | 30% | 17 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 13 of 50 | 26% | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 1 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 66 of 155 | 42% | 31 of 99 | 26 of 47 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 153 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 38 of 131 | 29% | 34 of 120 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 124 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 22 of 42 | 52% | 6 of 19 | 11 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 17 of 55 | 30% | 14 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 12 of 48 | 12 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 13 of 50 | 26% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 32 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Alex Morono | 8 of 26 | 30% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ponzinibbio, noting his clean striking, range control, and volume. He warns that Ponzinibbio must avoid Lawler's power and treat him with respect. He believes Ponzinibbio can get a finish if he maintains a high pace like Barbarena did. He acknowledges Lawler is dangerous even at 40 but thinks Ponzinibbio's technical approach will win.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, but is not confident in the price. He notes Ponzinibbio has lost a step but still competes at a high level, while Morono is a short-notice replacement. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Ponzinibbio outpointing Morono.
Cody picks Ponzinibbio, citing his volume striking, footwork, and ability to absorb damage. He notes Ponzinibbio has been competitive against high-level guys despite recent split decision losses. He thinks Morono is a 50/50 fighter who fights to his opponent's level and is taking the fight on short notice. He expects Ponzinibbio to win by decision.
Connor picks Ponzinibbio, citing his full camp, powerful straight punches, and low kicks. He notes Morono is a short-notice replacement and lacks the athleticism to handle Ponzinibbio's sustained offense. Connor believes Ponzinibbio's persistence and power will overwhelm Morono, who tends to put himself in danger.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio but with low confidence due to Ponzinibbio's diminished form after a health scare. He praises Ponzinibbio's prime style: stalking footwork, calf kicks, and a beautiful straight right. However, he notes Ponzinibbio is a step slower now and has gone 1-3 in his last four. Levi acknowledges Morono's toughness and awkward brawling style, but believes Ponzinibbio's cleaner striking and experience should carry him. He warns not to be surprised if Morono wins.
Lock likes Ponzinibbio to win, believing he will torch Morono from the jump and eventually knock him out. He sees Morono as a plodding forward fighter whose durability holds up some nights but not against Ponzinibbio's striking. From a long-term perspective, he thinks Ponzinibbio will get a decent bump but will lose against higher-level competition. He recommends a pump and dump on Ponzinibbio this weekend.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Ponzinibbio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has been preparing for this fight for a long time while Morono is on short notice. He thinks the minus 180 line is fair and is surprised it's not higher given the circumstances. He sees Ponzinibbio's experience and preparation as key factors.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Robbie Lawler (note: transcript says Lawler but fight is Ponzinibbio vs Morono; likely error). He believes Ponzinibbio will jab Lawler's face off and win by TKO in round two or three. He criticizes Lawler's age and recent performances, and thinks Ponzinibbio's range striking will be too much.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, emphasizing his ability to rally back in fights and his power. He notes Morono's grit but says Ponzinibbio's sustained offense and punching power are a level above Morono's recent opponents. Zane is concerned about Morono's short notice but trusts Ponzinibbio's experience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 0 | 105 of 220 | 47% | 106 of 221 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 110 of 216 | 50% | 110 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 0 | 55 of 115 | 47% | 55 of 115 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 51 of 101 | 50% | 51 of 101 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Pereira | 105 of 220 | 47% | 78 of 185 | 13 of 18 | 14 of 17 | 103 of 217 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 110 of 216 | 50% | 52 of 143 | 42 of 56 | 16 of 17 | 108 of 214 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michel Pereira | 16 of 39 | 41% | 8 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 24 of 45 | 53% | 9 of 27 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michel Pereira | 34 of 66 | 51% | 26 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 33 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 35 of 70 | 50% | 14 of 44 | 17 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michel Pereira | 55 of 115 | 47% | 44 of 100 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 54 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 51 of 101 | 50% | 29 of 72 | 13 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 50 of 100 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pereira (-120), Ponzinibbio (+100)
Round 1
Herb Dean gets the assignment for the co-main event of the evening. Pereira moves laterally on the outside and fires off a front kick. A right hand from Pereira has Ponzinibbio backing up, but his fingers are extended and he pokes his opponent in the eye. Ponzinibbio gets a hard warning from Dean. Another front kick from Pereira, and Ponzinibbio answers with a leg kick. A right hand over the top lands clean for Pereira. Pereira misses the mark on a right but follows up with a leg kick. Pereira briefly secures a rear waistlock but elects to separate. Ponzinibbio steps in with a leg kick. Pereira with a couple front kicks to the midsection. Ponzinibbio is walking his foe down, looking for openings. But it’s Pereira who lands a combination. Ponzinibbio loads up on some power punches but Pereira eludes the offering. Ponzinibbio has a head kick blocked.
A right hand lands behind the ear of Ponzinibbio and appears to stun him momentarily
. Another front kick to the gut for Pereira. An inside leg kick lands for Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio presses the action but Pereira defends well and counters. Ponzinibbio comes up short on a right just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Pereira
Round 2
Pereira steps in and lands a 1-2 at the outset. Ponzinibbio with an outside leg kick. Pereira moves forward and rips a hard kick to the body. Pereira misses a massive overhand right, but he steps in a connects with a glancing knee. A left hook catches Ponzinibbio coming in. Ponzinibbio is still struggling to find the range on his strikes, as he is confounded by Pereira’s movement.
The action picks up as both men trade willingly. Ponzinibbio tags Pereira with a big left hand near the fence. Another heavy left finds the mark for the Argentina native. A left hook lands for Pereira. Ponzinibbio lands a combination followed by a leg kick. Another exchnage and both men are bleeding
. Ponzinibbio lands a couple jabs and then succeeds on a double leg takedown late in the round. Pereira stands but Ponzinibbio stays attached with a waist lock as the period ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Ponzinibbio
Round 3
The combatants touch gloves at the start of the final frame. Pereira with a jab to the body and a leg kick. Pereira follows a right hand with a knee to the body. A jab catches Ponzinibbio moving forward. Another right hand makes Ponzinibbio briefly stagger back. Pereira eludes a left and kicks the body. Ponzinibbio with a crisp straight left. Pereira blocks a head kick from Ponzinibbio. Ponzinibbio jabs and Pereira answers with an uppercut. Ponzinibbio with an outside leg kick. Pereira misses a heavy right hand. Ponzinibbio with another thudding leg kick. Ponzinibbio lands a right but Pereira backs him up with a combination of his own. Another nice jab for Ponzinibbio lands. A right from Ponzinibbio briefly jars Pereira’s mouthguard loose. Pereira lands a body kick. Ponzinibbio works behind his jab, and Pereira shucks off a takedown try.
Both men are trading liberally in the final minute. A left hook and a right hand land for Ponzinibbio, two of the better strikes in spirited brawl
. Pereira stuffs a takedown. The welterweights continue to battle as time ticks down. Ponzinibbio seems to be landing the cleaner shots, while Pereira is a little bit wild with his strikes. A very close, entertaining round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Ponzinibbio (29-28 Ponzinibbio)
Tudor Leonte scores the round:10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Michel Pereira def. Santiago Ponzinibbio via Split Decision (28-29, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Michel Pereira because he believes Pereira is better everywhere: more power, versatility, 100% takedown defense, and improved cardio. He notes that Ponzinibbio has good range control but Pereira's power and technique will overcome that. He expects Pereira to win a decision, his fourth in five fights.
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, favoring his pressure style and superior cardio. He notes Ponzinibbio throws combinations and leg kicks, while Pereira prefers to stick on the outside and may struggle with pressure. He expects Ponzinibbio to break Pereira as the fight goes on and win a close decision.
Cody leans Pereira because he believes Ponzinibbio hasn't looked the same since his eye injury, citing close fights with Miguel Baeza and Geoff Neal where he was outlanded in significant strikes. He notes Pereira has improved his cardio and fight IQ, mixing in takedowns and pacing himself. He thinks Pereira's chin is better and that he can land a big shot or wrestle, making him the fresher fighter.
The host discusses the fight but does not make a clear pick. He notes that Pereira is a bigger welterweight and that Ponzinibbio is a legitimate 170-pounder. He questions whether Pereira's size will be a factor and mentions that Ponzinibbio's takedown defense should be good enough. He does not express a preference for either fighter.
Paul does not give a clear pick for this fight. He says the line is perfectly accurate and both guys can win. He mentions Ponzinibbio's volume and pressure but notes he hasn't looked the same since his injury. He does not express a preference.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, believing he has the cardio and durability to outlast Michel Pereira. He thinks Pereira's KO power is not enough to finish Ponzinibbio and that Pereira will fade in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round TKO for Ponzinibbio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 85 of 161 | 52% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 91 of 229 | 39% | 91 of 229 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 26 of 73 | 35% | 26 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 46 of 73 | 63% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 85 of 161 | 52% | 73 of 145 | 5 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 85 of 161 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 91 of 229 | 39% | 62 of 195 | 12 of 17 | 17 of 17 | 90 of 228 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 20 of 41 | 48% | 13 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 63 | 41% | 17 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Geoff Neal | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 41 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 26 of 73 | 35% | 15 of 61 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Geoff Neal | 46 of 73 | 63% | 44 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 39 of 93 | 41% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 39 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Geoff Neal to win by knockout, but with low confidence due to Neal's recent DUI and gun possession arrest. He notes that Neal has a power advantage and reach advantage over Ponzinibbio, who is 35 and coming off a layoff and a knockout loss. However, Neal's preparation is a major concern. Brady says if Neal shows up focused, he has a good chance, but he is not sure the fight will even happen.
Daniel Levi picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win a war of attrition. He notes that both fighters nearly died from medical issues, but Ponzinibbio looked better in his last fight against Miguel Baeza, shaking off rust. Levi questions whether Geoff Neal has recovered from his sepsis and heart failure, citing poor performances against Wonderboy and Neil Magny. He believes Ponzinibbio's jab, straight right, calf kicks, and takedown defense will be too much. Levi expects Ponzinibbio to be more aggressive and meaner.
Neal is the more technical striker and will counter Ponzinibbio's aggressive pressure effectively. Ponzinibbio has defensive flaws and is hittable, especially against a counter-striker. Neal's straight right and speed should find the mark, and a knockout is possible. The underdog odds provide value.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, citing his experience, technical striking, and ability to pressure. He notes that Geoff Neal had a troubled training camp (jail time) and has shown vulnerability against pressure fighters. He predicts Ponzinibbio will win 30-27.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Santiago Ponzinibbio to win by decision, but is hesitant due to the long layoff and injuries. He thinks Ponzinibbio is the much better fighter and will throw more output. He notes that Li has never been knocked out but has been knocked down several times. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a good play but says he won't touch it personally. He finds the -275 line a bit steep.
Daniel Levi leans Santiago Ponzinibbio but conditions his pick on how Ponz looks at weigh-ins due to his serious health layoff. He praises Ponz's calf kicks, straight right, and cardio, and notes Li Jingliang has been knocked down five times. He expects Ponz to set up the straight right with calf kicks, but acknowledges Li's durability and power.
Ponzinibbio is the more educated striker with a great kicking game, especially leg kicks, which he used to beat Neil Magny. However, he is coming off a two-year layoff due to a knee infection, which raises durability and ring rust concerns. Li Jingliang has power and durability, but his striking is less technical. The best bet is the over 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are durable and have not been finished recently. Ponzinibbio should win a decision if he shows up at 50% of his former self.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio over Li Jingliang, citing Ponzinibbio's superior technique, leg kicks, and versatility. He uses MMA math comparing their common opponent Neil Magny, noting Ponzinibbio dropped Magny multiple times while Li was dismantled. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision, expecting Ponzinibbio to tool Li over three rounds without gassing.
Impressive given Li's block head