Career Averages - JJ Aldrich
Career Averages - Vanessa Demopoulos
JJ Aldrich
Vanessa Demopoulos
JJ Aldrich - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 50 of 149 | 33% | 52 of 154 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 70 of 230 | 30% | 73 of 233 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 43 | 16% | 9 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 23 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 46 | 34% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 21 of 88 | 23% | 22 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 28 of 88 | 31% | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 50 of 149 | 33% | 35 of 127 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 14 | 50 of 149 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 70 of 230 | 30% | 28 of 158 | 25 of 48 | 17 of 24 | 70 of 230 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 43 | 16% | 5 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 54 | 38% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 15 | 2 of 6 | 21 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 16 of 46 | 34% | 11 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 21 of 88 | 23% | 7 of 67 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 60 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 28 of 88 | 31% | 10 of 58 | 12 of 23 | 6 of 7 | 28 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her power, range control, and higher fight IQ. He notes that JJ Aldrich is coming off a layoff and was never dangerous, and that Horth's takedown defense is a concern but JJ is not a strong wrestler. He expects Horth to win a shutout decision.
Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her size, strength, and physicality. He believes Horth will win in the clinch and grind out a close split decision, despite Aldrich having better striking at distance. He expects an unexciting fight.
Cody picks Jamey-Lyn Horth, citing her physical strength and ability to pressure. He notes that JJ Aldrich has mental toughness issues and tends to fade when pressured. He expects Horth to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor picks Aldrich because she is a much better technician with faster hands and superior skills everywhere. He notes that Horth is not the kind of athlete that beats Aldrich, and Aldrich has beaten similar fighters like Jillian Robertson and Vanessa Demopoulos. However, he expresses concern that Aldrich's tendency to abandon what works could make the fight closer than it should be.
Aldrich is the better fighter everywhere: more technical boxing, southpaw stance, improved takedown defense, and better MMA grappling. Horth has home advantage but poor fight IQ and is an inexperienced striker. Aldrich's main issue is putting her stamp on rounds, but she should do enough to win a close decision. The odds are off; Aldrich should be at least 50%.
James picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He thinks Aldrich's boxing and takedown defense will keep the fight competitive, and that Horth's advantages are overstated. He predicts a decision win.
The host thinks Aldrich is the superior striker technically and has a strength of schedule advantage. He believes she will land more effective shots and withstand Horton's power. He notes that Horton throws with more power, which gives him pause, but sees value on Aldrich as a live underdog. He predicts Aldrich by decision.
Paul picks JJ Aldrich as a slight underdog, citing her experience and plus money. He notes that both fighters are similar but Aldrich has fought better competition. He expects a close decision and likes the value on Aldrich.
Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that Aldrich is a good technician and solid grappler who has beaten better fighters than Horth. He notes that Horth's best win is over Vanessa Demopoulos, while Aldrich has wins over better competition. He also points out that Horth is not a reckless fighter like Andrea Lee, so Aldrich may not get easy counters, but she should still win handily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 53 of 175 | 30% | 66 of 192 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 74 of 137 | 54% | 77 of 142 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 18 of 57 | 31% | 18 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 23 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 15 of 58 | 25% | 18 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 25 of 46 | 54% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 20 of 60 | 33% | 30 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:46 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 29 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 53 of 175 | 30% | 13 of 109 | 25 of 44 | 15 of 22 | 52 of 174 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 74 of 137 | 54% | 54 of 114 | 10 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 68 of 130 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 18 of 57 | 31% | 1 of 32 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 13 | 18 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 21 of 43 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 15 of 58 | 25% | 3 of 35 | 6 of 14 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 25 of 46 | 54% | 17 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrea Lee | 20 of 60 | 33% | 9 of 42 | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 28 of 48 | 58% | 23 of 43 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.
The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 38 of 76 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:09 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 36 of 78 | 46% | 69 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 26 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 21 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Veronica Hardy | 27 of 63 | 42% | 19 of 51 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 47 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 36 of 78 | 46% | 22 of 60 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 30 of 68 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Veronica Hardy | 9 of 24 | 37% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 14 of 24 | 58% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 19 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Veronica Hardy | 8 of 18 | 44% | 5 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 15 of 35 | 42% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Veronica Hardy | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| JJ Aldrich | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks JJ Aldrich as an underdog, citing her improved striking and takedown defense in her last two fights. He notes she has an experience edge and a willingness to move forward. He acknowledges Veronica Hardy's technical striking and wrestling but believes Aldrich is more well-rounded. He also bets the over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Veronica Hardy because she is younger and has shown improvement since her layoff, looking like a completely different fighter. He notes that Hardy beat Juliana Miller decisively and had a competitive split decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth. However, he acknowledges the fight is extremely close and expects it to go to a split decision, with the judges being unreliable. He prefers Hardy's upside over Aldridge's decent but limited game.
Cody picks Hardy, citing her improvements since marrying Dan Hardy. He notes that she has shown a well-rounded game, including takedowns and smart game plans. He believes she can mix in takedowns to keep Aldrich guessing and outwork her on the feet. Cody also mentions that Hardy trained at Renzo Gracie's for this camp, indicating a focus on grappling. He expects Hardy to win a competitive decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Veronica Hardy, noting her improvements in strength and conditioning and her ability to get back up from bottom. He believes Hardy has leveled up, while JJ Aldrich has remained the same. He predicts a decision win for Hardy, though he doesn't like the short price.
The host leans Hardy due to her movement and speed, which will allow her to land effective damage in the first 6-7 minutes. He notes that Aldrich is not as aggressive as Hardy's previous opponent, allowing Hardy to dictate range. He expects Hardy to win on the scorecards, though Aldrich's countering ability could catch up later. The pick is a lean, not a strong bet.
Paul picks Hardy, noting that she was his first bet of the week. He highlights her takedown game and improved grappling since her return. He thinks Aldrich's takedown defense is inconsistent and that Hardy can exploit it. Paul also notes that Hardy's striking is competitive and that the threat of takedowns will slow Aldrich's volume. He is confident in Hardy.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Veronica Hardy, citing Aldrich's superior competition, size, reach, and aggression. He notes Hardy's recent wins came against lower-level opponents and that Aldrich is a career fighter with more to prove. He also mentions Aldrich's takedown defense and physicality in the clinch as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 67 of 204 | 32% | 70 of 209 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 65 of 135 | 48% | 66 of 136 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 23 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 86 | 31% | 27 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 0 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 67 of 204 | 32% | 41 of 172 | 13 of 16 | 13 of 16 | 59 of 184 | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 65 of 135 | 48% | 55 of 122 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 58 of 124 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 49 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 19 of 35 | 54% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 63 | 33% | 10 of 49 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 56 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 86 | 31% | 17 of 75 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 79 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Montana De La Rosa | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 51 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Montana De La Rosa because she is a very good wrestler with a straightforward game plan of taking opponents down. He notes that JJ Aldrich is decent at everything but great at nothing, and that Aldrich was taken down in her last fight. He also mentions that Montana's losses are to quality fighters like Tatiana Suarez, while Aldrich has had poor performances. He placed a half-unit bet on Montana at +135, noting the line has since moved.
Big Brady leans toward Montana De La Rosa, noting that she has a grappling advantage over JJ Aldrich. He believes De La Rosa's wrestling is solid for the division and that she can control the fight on the ground. He mentions that Aldrich has been taken down by lesser grapplers like Liang Na, so De La Rosa should be able to secure takedowns. However, he admits the fight could be close if De La Rosa cannot get the takedown, and he preferred her at plus money. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks De La Rosa, citing her toughness, wrestling, and ability to pressure. He notes that Aldrich has struggled against grapplers and that De La Rosa's tenacity will be key. He expects De La Rosa to make the fight dirty and win a decision.
Daniel Levi picks Montana De La Rosa, noting her toughness and improved hands. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich is the cleaner striker but thinks Montana can bully her and take her back. He mentions that the value has shifted to Aldrich now that Montana is favored, but his pure pick is Montana.
Lucrative James sees this as a close fight, likely 29-28 either way. He leans Montana De La Rosa because he has seen JJ Aldrich 'flake' a few times against physical opponents like Erin Blanchfield and Bara. He believes De La Rosa's physicality can cause Aldrich to falter, though he acknowledges it's a toss-up.
Aldrich took this fight on short notice, which suggests she believes she has an edge from training with De La Rosa in the past. She has good takedown defense and superior striking, and should be able to stuff takedowns or work back to her feet. De La Rosa is on a two-fight losing streak and relies on wrestling, but Aldrich has shown she can handle grapplers. Expect Aldrich to land more damage and win by decision.
Paul picks De La Rosa, agreeing with the line movement. He notes that Aldrich has been taken down and controlled by wrestlers, and that De La Rosa's wrestling and heart should be enough. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Montana De La Rosa over JJ Aldridge. He believes De La Rosa is underrated and notes her decent performance against Macy Barber and competitive rounds with Tatiana Suarez. He points to a common opponent, Ariane Lipski, who finished De La Rosa but later beat Aldridge, suggesting De La Rosa is stronger. He also mentions a slight reach advantage for De La Rosa and describes Aldridge as 'two hit and miss.'
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 41 | 26% | 27 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 47 of 65 | 72% | 68 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 5:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 28 | 25% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 18 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:41 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Liang Na | 0 | 36 of 45 | 80% | 50 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 41 | 26% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 47 of 65 | 72% | 46 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 37 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 28 | 25% | 6 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 23 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 11 of 20 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 4 of 13 | 30% | 1 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Liang Na | 36 of 45 | 80% | 36 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 40 |
Angelo states that JJ Aldrich is better everywhere but expresses frustration with her last performance against Ariane Lipski, which cost him a bet. He sarcastically considers betting on Liang out of spite but ultimately acknowledges Aldrich should win. He does not recommend betting on Aldrich due to the poor value and his personal distrust.
Big Brady is a fan of Liang Na but acknowledges her flaws: she gasses out quickly, has poor durability, and quits when tired. He expects JJ Aldrich to weather an early storm and then take over as Liang fades. He predicts Aldrich will win by second-round knockout due to exhaustion, as Liang will be unable to continue.
Cody picks Aldrich, noting her experience and level of competition. He expects Liang to gas out after an early flurry, leading to a finish. Cody likes Aldrich inside the distance at minus 145.
Daniel picks JJ Aldrich, stating that she should win easily against a lower-level opponent. He notes that Liang Na is not UFC caliber, with poor striking and chin. However, he refuses to lay the heavy price, calling it a pass. He is confident Aldrich wins but sees no betting value.
James is confident JJ Aldrich wins, citing her superior striking and Liang Na's lack of UFC-level success. He notes Liang Na has been finished by strikes in both UFC fights and has only one round of cardio. He predicts Aldrich will piece her up on the feet and likely get a finish, possibly in round three. However, he does not bet on the fight due to the short odds and Aldrich's lack of finishing history.
The host describes Liang Na as a 'die or get carried out' fighter who leaves herself open with wide looping shots and has poor takedown defense. JJ Aldrich is the far more technical striker and the host expects her to anticipate takedowns, counter effectively, and find a knockout. The host notes Aldrich hasn't finished in 7-8 years but believes this matchup is perfect for her to get a finish. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting Liang's poor UFC performances and one-dimensional style. He expects Aldrich to survive the early storm and win by decision or late finish. Paul is not interested in the price but sees Aldrich as a safe pick.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Liang Na, calling it a no-brainer. He notes Aldrich's high-level experience in the UFC since 2016 with wins over known fighters like Julian Robertson and Courtney Casey. He dismisses Liang Na as simply not good, having lost to lower-level opponents. He emphasizes Aldrich's superior level of competition.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 48 of 100 | 48% | 68 of 121 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 32 of 71 | 45% | 38 of 77 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 43 | 37% | 21 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 0 | 25 of 42 | 59% | 41 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:13 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erin Blanchfield | 48 of 100 | 48% | 29 of 76 | 11 of 11 | 8 of 13 | 46 of 96 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 32 of 71 | 45% | 29 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Erin Blanchfield | 23 of 58 | 39% | 13 of 44 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 7 | 22 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 43 | 37% | 15 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Erin Blanchfield | 25 of 42 | 59% | 16 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 16 of 28 | 57% | 14 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.
Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.
Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.
Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 60 of 118 | 50% | 76 of 137 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 3:07 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 52 of 139 | 37% | 67 of 154 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:16 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 39 | 46% | 27 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 32 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 60 of 118 | 50% | 56 of 114 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 49 of 105 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 52 of 139 | 37% | 17 of 81 | 18 of 36 | 17 of 22 | 45 of 131 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 19 of 35 | 54% | 17 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 57 | 28% | 4 of 30 | 4 of 16 | 8 of 11 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 23 of 44 | 52% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 36 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 17 of 40 | 42% | 7 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 18 of 39 | 46% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 19 of 42 | 45% | 6 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 14 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson because she is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base, averaging almost three takedowns per fight. He believes Robertson will be more physical and work the fight to the ground, as JJ Aldrich has not faced someone as physical or wrestling-heavy. He notes that the -150 odds are spot on and expects the line to move further in Robertson's favor.
Big Brady picks the underdog JJ Aldrich to win by decision. He praises Aldrich's underrated grappling, takedown defense, and ability to control opponents on the mat, citing her performances against Vanessa Demopoulos and Paulina Viana. He notes Robertson has poor takedown defense (16%) and is content to play off her back, but Aldrich's BJJ is good enough to avoid submissions. He thinks Aldrich has more paths to victory: out-striking or controlling on the ground.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking advantage. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a bet.
Daniel Levi picks JJ Aldrich, arguing that Aldrich's stand-up is way higher than Robertson's and that she keeps her distance well. He believes if Aldrich stuffs the first few takedowns, Robertson will start flopping to her back, allowing Aldrich to take advantage. Levi acknowledges that if Robertson gets on top, Aldrich is a brown belt and can survive, but he sees Aldrich neutralizing Robertson and winning a decision.
Aldrich has good boxing and takedown defense, but hasn't faced a relentless grappler like Robertson recently. She can keep the fight standing and use top control if taken down. Robertson is a submission specialist but may struggle to get takedowns. Aldrich is predicted to win via decision, with the over 2.5 rounds also considered.
Paul picks Aldrich, citing her durability and striking. He notes Robertson's cardio issues and Aldrich's training with Maverick. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Gillian Robertson, going against the grain. He highlights Aldrich's takedown defense, noting she hasn't been taken down since 2019 and pops right back up. He believes Aldrich is capable on the feet, training with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko, and that Robertson won't be able to utilize her grappling. He predicts a grinding decision or a late-round TKO, as Aldrich is tough to submit.
Vanessa Demopoulos - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 101 of 167 | 60% | 115 of 183 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 36 of 119 | 30% | 44 of 131 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 35 of 57 | 61% | 36 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 5 of 39 | 12% | 7 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 35 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 3 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 0 | 33 of 50 | 66% | 44 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:35 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 101 of 167 | 60% | 64 of 123 | 24 of 31 | 13 of 13 | 90 of 153 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 3 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 36 of 119 | 30% | 15 of 87 | 17 of 26 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 107 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 35 of 57 | 61% | 22 of 43 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 5 of 39 | 12% | 0 of 30 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 33 of 60 | 55% | 22 of 45 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 20 of 52 | 38% | 7 of 33 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jamey-Lyn Horth | 33 of 50 | 66% | 20 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 11 of 28 | 39% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Horth (-520), Demopoulos (+390)
Round 1
Atlanta! The capital of Georgia! The City in a Forest, The A, The Gate City, Hollywood of the South, ATL, Hotlanta, A City Among the Hills, Dogwood City…and many other names. The UFC has arrived to the city that holds over six million people in its metropolitan area, returning for the first time since Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier threw down for the second time all the way back in 2019. While no all-time banger is slated for this event’s lineup, with 13 bouts of varied significance, something is bound to bring the goods. UFC on ESPN 69 kicks off with a women’s flyweight contest pitting a Canadian in Horth (7-2, 2-2 UFC) struggling to find her way against a former strawweight in Demopoulos (11-7, 5-4 UFC) also trying to figure things out. Even with Horth sporting massive odds in her favor around -600, she is not even in top three heaviest betting favorites tonight. Here be squash matches. Referee Nate Mann takes the wheel for the first fight of the night, and the ladies touch gloves before his eyes to get started. Demopoulos, the shorter and smaller woman of the two by a wide margin, tries to get her offense going but is well out of range. Horth, meanwhile, easily slaps her opponent in the face with the first strike she throws: a front kick. Horth flicks out a low kick and avoids the return fire, with the former strawweight too distant. Horth goes to the well with another kick, and Demopoulos’s calf is already welting and reddening. Demopoulos lunges forward a few times, to no avail. Horth nearly wraps her head kick around the guard, forcing Demopoulos to mind her P’s and Q’s. Horth pitches a high kick to the other side, and the impact alone makes Demopoulos have to take a step back. Horth uses her long legs to do work, and she pins a body kick and follows it with a front kick to the midsection. Demopoulos’s responses rebound off the guard or come up short, so she engages in a clinch. The two jockey for position as soon as they find their way tied up, turning one another about, and Horth clocks Demopoulos with a right hand. Horth walks her foe down, landing with impunity, and turning the older woman’s face a brilliant shade of red. Horth picks away with jabs, stepping in with a kick to the body and giving Demopoulos all she can handle. Horth splits the guard with a one-two, and she again finds her target with a front kick. A trickle of blood appears on the side of Demopoulos’ nose, and Horth sees it and kicks at it. The front kick is one of the Canadian’s best weapons, freezing Demopoulos with one and then stinging her with a one-two. Demopoulos whiffs when trying to pay her back, and she looks for a takedown or something to get hold of her steamrolling opponent. Horth shucks it off and starts blasting the former dancer, allowing Demopoulos to try to get hold of her so she can toss Demopoulos to the mat. Horth lands in an awkward position as Demopoulos tries to reverse somersault, and the horn sounds.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Round 2
The ladies touch ‘em up to get going in the second round, and Demopoulos tries to take advantage of the close proximity but ends up missing on a few punches. Horth steps back and pops her with a right hook. Demopoulos chambers and fires a single kick, only to get her jaw jacked with a hook combination. Horth pounds the midsection with a liver kick, and she chains a front kick and two right hooks behind it. When the Canadian attacks another kick, Demopoulos grabs her and tries to tie her up. Demopoulos’ cheek starts leaking crimson fluid, with Horth’s strikes having a visible effect while Demopoulos might not have connected with 10 significant strikes over six and a half minutes in. On the break, Horth drills her opponent with a left hand that spins Demopoulos all the way around. Demopoulos recovers and loops a right hand back at her, but her six-plus inch reach deficiency is her worst enemy. Horth watches Demopoulos soar past her with strikes, chipping at her with jabs and punishing her with a right hand when Demopoulos charges her. Demopoulos gets off first and shoots for a double-leg takedown, but the taller woman turns her about and drills her in the jaw with a knee. The size discrepancy is jarring, as Horth can reach her at will with kicks while even Demopoulos’ kicks do not always get there. An axe kick from Demopoulos is nowhere near the mark, but she gets aggravated and wings a right hand that surprises Horth. The Canadian has to shake it off, and she marches forward and drives a kick to the ribcage. Demopoulos is tough as nails, but Horth is connecting constantly and effectively. When they clinch, Horth breaks it out of thanks to a few knees. A home run right hand from Demopoulos misses by a mile, and she takes a punch to give one back but is seemingly out-powered as well. Horth chains a kick into two punches, and she ducks the right hook at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth
Round 3
Horth springs out of her corner behind her jab, allowing Demopoulos to come at her so she can do work. Demopoulos’ charges put her at risk to getting kicked in the stomach, and Horth does this twice—the second sends Demopoulos flying. Demopoulos stands up and nods that she got hit with a good one, and she tries to grab hold of Horth. The Canadian allows Demopoulos to sell out for a takedown so she can wind up on top, and she hops away and trips. Demopoulos gives chase, but Horth is upright before she gets grounded for real. The Factory X fighter sells out for a takedown, even giving up dominant position in hopes of taking the back, but Horth turns her about and reams her with an elbow. Horth sits comfortably in the full guard of her foe, listening to her corner’s instructions while pummeling “Lil Monster” with ground-and-pound. Any time Demopoulos tosses her legs up for a submission of some kind, Horth busts her in the chops. Horth elects to stand back up, and she sways back to partially dodge a one-two. Chants for “USA” in support of Demopoulos rain down, and she salutes the crowd and takes a knee square on the jaw when not paying attention. Horth potshots her from a safe distance, her body kick about as clutch at it can be. Demopoulos walks through a head kick to wind a big right hand, and her power strikes are one-and-done while Horth is much busier, accurate and stronger. Demopoulos sprints towards her foe for a level change, and she tries to pull guard but Horth walks away. Demopoulos comes out firing with a one-two when getting back to her feet, and she snaps Horth’s head to the side with a solid jab. The prodding jabs from Horth keep her safe from the worst of it, and Demopoulos tries to catch a body kick but ends up eating four punches instead. Horth’s body kick leads to a shot up top, and she springs away to avoid a looping punch. Demopoulos fakes a takedown to throw hands, and she even attempts an Imanari roll to get hold of the Canadian. They trade hands, with Horth landing the flusher of the two, until the final bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Horth (30-27 Horth)
The Official Result
Jamey-Lyn Horth def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Horth because of her size advantage and ability to defend takedowns against the cage. He believes her range, length, and striking will be too much for Demopoulos, who is stepping up on short notice.
Big Brady picks Jamey-Lyn Horth due to her significant size and strength advantages, noting a 5-inch height and 6.5-7 inch reach advantage. He believes Horth will use her size to push Demopoulos against the cage and take her down, similar to how Allen Carr controlled Demopoulos. He acknowledges Demopoulos has been on the winning side of questionable decisions but expects Horth to win a boring decision. He is surprised Horth is a -475 favorite but agrees with the line.
Horth's size, physicality, and strength are expected to overwhelm Demopoulos, who is coming up a weight class on short notice. Horth will pin Demopoulos against the cage, drag her to the ground, and grind out a decision win.
The Guru picks Jamey-Lyn Horth based on her physicality advantage, noting she is 5'7" to Demopoulos's 5'2" with more reach. He criticizes Demopoulos's lack of technical skill, saying she 'has no idea what she's doing' and spent 13 minutes on bottom in her last fight. He expects Horth to outgrapple Demopoulos and win a 30-27 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 34 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 45 of 75 | 60% | 107 of 150 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 12:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:25 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 19 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 40 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 8 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Talita Alencar | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 48 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 10 of 34 | 29% | 9 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 45 of 75 | 60% | 39 of 67 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 9 of 17 | 52% | 7 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 6 of 20 | 30% | 5 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Talita Alencar | 11 of 24 | 45% | 7 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Talita Alencar | 25 of 34 | 73% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 27 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alencar (-112), Demopoulos (-108)
Round 1
This 11-week marathon of consecutive UFC cards soldiers on with the penultimate show on the stretch. We scoot back to the confines of the UFC Apex for better EBITDA margins, in a building that was supposed to starting renovations or construction soon. For now, it plays host to 12 fights ranging from 115 pounds to 266, but few matches on the lineup have any rankings relevance while there is likely to be ample pink slip fodder. The ladies in this curtain jerker might be safe if they lose this one, but with the promotion preparing for the summer season of Contender Series, few on the roster are safe. The two that kick this event off might be similar in age but they are a chasm apart in terms of experience. Demopoulos (11-6, 5-3 UFC) celebrates almost three times the appearances of Alencar (5-1-1, 1-1 UFC) despite the Brazilian just two years younger. Referee Chris Tognoni takes charge for the opening bout, and it kicks off without a glove touch. Demopoulos says hello with two punches across the forward bow, and she snaps out another such combo and reaches Alencar with one more left hand before the Brazilian can get to her. Alencar ties her foe up against the cage, and she drops down and wraps up a head lock to force “Lil Monster” to her knees. Alencar uses her left arm to pressure behind Demopoulos’s neck, and she is warned for grabbing the fence when imposing her weight on her opponent. Demopoulos uses her toes to try to pull her out of danger, which too is a foul. Alencar keeps to this position, content to control rather than actually committing to the unorthodox submission. Alencar releases the grip around the neck and pushes Demopoulos’ legs out of the way to establish a more traditional top position. Demopoulos uses her legs to threaten and otherwise keep Alencar honest, allowing Alencar to punch her in the face repeatedly. Demopoulos hunts for a sweep and only bails on it when absorbing a particularly effective elbow. Alencar keeps her full weight down, jumping from one side to the other and winding up in a sudden armbar. The Brazilian punches out of it from above, and she grabs the foot of Demopoulos for a possible foot or ankle lock. Alencar sits on Demopoulos’ face as she hangs on, staying heavy until the round wraps.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 2
Demopoulos starts the round as aggressive as the first, firing off two one-two salvos and a right hand before she is met by her opponent. Alencar gets up close and personal, changing levels for a possible takedown, but abandons it and lets her hands go to smack Demopoulos upside the head. Demopoulos comes up short on a winging overhand right, and she wades back to let Alencar do something similar. Alencar tosses out naked leg kicks to keep Demopoulos away, and she sits down on a clean right hand but does not budge Demopoulos one inch. The moment “Lil Monster” drives through a one-two, Alencar counters her momentum to hit a double-leg takedown and plop her on her back. Alencar lands in half guard, using her shoulder pressure to flatten out Demopoulos as soon as they get horizontal. Alencar is quick to engage her smothering best, stifling Demopoulos and getting warned for striking the spine when she does attack again. “Problem Child” gives Demopoulos another problem by stepping to the other side so she can set up an arm-triangle choke. Demopoulos bucks and kicks enough to gain the space she needs to not get choked out, and this only results in her getting struck with more ground-and-pound. Alencar finds a brief opening and hammers down four right hands, and she sits back on Demopoulos’ face in a relatively unusual position. Demopoulos sells out for a leglock in hopes of reversing the position, and Alencar gets out of it by repeatedly grabbing the fence. Tognoni slaps her hand several times, and Alencar still is able to yank on it to get her leg out of the sub. Rules mean nothing with no consequences, and multiple fence grabs keeping her out of a submission go generally uncalled other than a “knock it off” from Tognoni. Alencar rides out the position on top until time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar
Round 3
Demopoulos marches out of her corner a woman possessed, and she lashes out with multiple one-twos down the pipe. Alencar rushes towards her as well, perhaps for a takedown, and she clashes heads before changing levels. Tognoni checks to make sure neither woman sustained damage, and on the restart, Alencar tackles Demopoulos to the mat and the collective air out of the Apex as well. Alencar hangs out in guard, unafraid of anything the Factory X fighter will do to her, and she pops Demopoulos with some short, scoring strikes. Demopoulos hunts for a triangle choke, armbar or even possibly a desperate leglock, and the Brazilian laughs them all off and steps the proper direction to avoid them completely while remaining in top. Alencar shifts to half guard from the opposite side as she wants to set up an armbar, and she drops down ground-and-pound when not isolating the neck. When the sub is not there, Alencar sits up into three-quarter mount, and she attacks with strikes from above. With nothing left to lose, Demopoulos explodes to sit up and even stand. Unfortunately for her, the “Problem Child” is a problem for her, as she executes a near-immediate mat return to sling Demopoulos to her back. Alencar lords over her, dropping down standing-to-ground punches while avoiding upkicks. Alencar picks up the pace with more punches than before, and she climbs into half guard and elbows until the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Alencar (30-26 Alencar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Alencar (30-27 Alencar)
The Official Result
Talita Alencar def. Vanessa Demopoulos via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo argues that Vanessa is the more complete fighter with solid striking, footwork, and decent grappling, while Talita Alencar is an accomplished grappler but ineffective on the feet, small, and powerless. He notes that Talita's takedowns are not great and she relies on strength, and that even if she gets it to the ground, she hasn't shown the killer instinct expected. Angelo believes Vanessa can win via striking and takedown defense, and he dismisses any bias from his past interaction with Vanessa.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos despite acknowledging she has questionable wins and poor takedown defense. He believes Talita Alencar's cardio is a major issue, as she slowed down significantly in her Contender Series fight. He expects Demopoulos to survive early grappling and take over in later rounds, finishing a gassed Alencar via ground and pound.
Alencar's BJJ wizardry will come into play, allowing her to land takedowns and eventually find a submission. The fight could be close but Alencar's grappling advantage is expected to secure the win.
The Guru picks Vanessa Demopoulos based on her physicality, scrappiness, and experience. He dismisses Talita Alencar as not UFC-caliber, noting her claim to fame was against someone who got fraud-checked. He admits there's no technical aspect to analyze, just that Demopoulos is larger and more physical.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaqueline Amorim | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaqueline Amorim | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaqueline Amorim | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaqueline Amorim | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Amorim (-310), Demopoulos (+250)
Round 1
Strawweight grapplers come to blows in a battle between ladies that like to bully their opponents. Amorim (8-1, 2-1 UFC) has yet to go the distance when notching a win, while Demopoulos (11-5, 5-2 UFC) could comfortably describe the sound of the final bell. The pairing that could see some exciting exchanges on the mat will be officiated by referee Jacob Montalvo, and it kicks off as Amorim claims the middle of the cage and no interest in a glove touch. The Brazilian lets loose with a high kick, and Demopoulos pushes her back with a front kick but has that leg caught. Amorim uses the caught kick to take Demopoulos off-balance, and she throws “Lil Monster” to her back. Demopoulos tries for inverted triangle chokes while Amorim is on top in side control and briefly north-south position. Amorim shifts back to the side, and she pushes to three-quarter mount. Amorim gets dragged back to half guard, and she allows Demopoulos to explode so she can take her back and get a hook in. Demopoulos crouches down low in hopes of standing up, while Amorim is draped over her shoulders before tugging her to the floor. Amorim looks to set up an armbar but elects to get the body triangle. Demopoulos times a moment to escape, and she shouts loudly that the Brazilian has repeatedly grabbed inside of her gloves. As Demopoulos rolls to her knees, Amorim follows her through to lock down the armbar. Demopoulos keeps shouting to protest the fouls, and in doing so, she does not properly defend the submission. Amorim rolls to her back to complete the submission, and Demopoulos has no choice but to tap out. The second Montalvo intervenes, Demopoulos screams at him that the Brazilian was not grabbing her wrist but inside of her gloves to gain advantageous position. She implores Montalvo to check the replay, and he appears to go to the replay officials to check into it. For now, the official decision stands, with Amorim notching one more armbar and keeping her finish rate at 100%.
The Official Result
Jaqueline Amorim def. Vanessa Demopoulos R1 3:28 via Submission (Armbar)
Angelo picks Jaqueline Amorim because she is a multiple-time world champion in both gi and no-gi grappling, has one-punch knockout power, and is extremely dangerous on the ground. He believes Vanessa Demopoulos, despite her cardio and forward pressure, will struggle with Amorim's grappling and power. He thinks Amorim can win by submission or knockout, and notes that the under 2.5 rounds is plus money.
Big Brady picks Jaqueline Amorim to win by first-round submission. He is confident Amorim wins but warns about corrupt judges favoring Demopoulos and Amorim's cardio issues. Brady believes Amorim is the better grappler and will get takedowns, possibly submitting Demopoulos. He picks submission to avoid judges' interference.
Cody picks Demopoulos, arguing that Amorim's only path is takedowns and top control, but Demopoulos has good BJJ and cardio. He notes Demopoulos' toughness and ability to win close decisions. He sees value at plus money.
Daniel thinks Amorim's takedowns and top control will be the key. He notes Demopoulos's poor takedown defense (30%) and believes Amorim can grind out a decision. He doesn't expect a submission because Demopoulos is tough and a black belt. He acknowledges the 'first-round-or-bust' narrative but thinks Amorim can win two rounds with grappling.
Amorim is the best BJJ opponent Demopoulos has faced, but Demopoulos has never been finished and has shown improved striking. Amorim's wrestling is weak, often pulling guard. If Demopoulos can keep it standing, she has a chance. The pick is Amorim by submission, but with low confidence; the fight is more of a pass or a play on the over 2.5 rounds.
Paul picks Demopoulos, citing her durability, cardio, and pressure. He notes Amorim's poor striking and wrestling, and that Demopoulos has never been finished. He believes Demopoulos can win by decision or even submission, and sees value at plus money.
The MMA Guru picks Jaqueline Amorim despite sarcastically noting that Vanessa Demopoulos often gets favorable decisions. He praises Amorim's finishing ability, citing her armbar win over Cory McKenna and third-round finish of Monserrat Ruiz. He acknowledges Amorim's loss to Sam Hughes but attributes it to lack of strength to finish a rear-naked choke. He believes Amorim is improving on the feet and training at American Top Team gives her an edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 109 of 293 | 37% | 126 of 311 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 143 of 214 | 66% | 147 of 218 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 43 of 99 | 43% | 43 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 36 of 112 | 32% | 37 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 60 of 83 | 72% | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 30 of 82 | 36% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Emily Ducote | 0 | 53 of 77 | 68% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 109 of 293 | 37% | 76 of 250 | 18 of 25 | 15 of 18 | 106 of 289 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 143 of 214 | 66% | 86 of 150 | 22 of 26 | 35 of 38 | 140 of 211 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 43 of 99 | 43% | 25 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 13 | 43 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 30 of 54 | 55% | 15 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 36 of 112 | 32% | 24 of 98 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 110 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 60 of 83 | 72% | 37 of 58 | 10 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 60 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 30 of 82 | 36% | 27 of 77 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 80 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Emily Ducote | 53 of 77 | 68% | 34 of 55 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 13 | 50 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo sees Emily Ducote as the better striker with legitimate power and good wrestling defense, while Vanessa Demopoulos relies on volume and footwork but lacks real power. He expects Ducote to win a close decision, likely 29-28, due to her superior striking accuracy and durability. He notes the over 2.5 rounds is a good bet and suggests Vanessa plus 3.5 on the scorecard as a solid bet.
Cody points out Demopoulos has been gifted decisions but is often outlanded and outgrappled. He notes Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with college wrestling, a BJJ black belt, and good striking. Demopoulos's takedown attempts are often unsuccessful, and she struggles with volume. Cody expects Ducote to outland her significantly and win a clear decision.
Demopoulos got a gift decision in her last fight and is not technical with her punches. Ducote has solid all-around skills, throws great leg kicks and clean combinations, and will use her wrestling defensively to keep the fight standing. Expects Ducote to outbox and outstrike Demopoulos on the feet and win on the scorecards.
Paul believes Ducote's wrestling background and superior striking will be too much for Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos has been on the wrong end of controversial decisions but is often outworked. Ducote should be able to keep the fight standing and outpoint Demopoulos, likely winning a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Emily Ducote over Vanessa Demopoulos, citing Ducote's superior activity and output. He argues that Demopoulos arguably lost several of her UFC fights, including against Kanako Murata, and that her volume is much lower than Ducote's. He expects Ducote to win a unanimous decision, 30-27, due to her three times higher output.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 86 of 144 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:42 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 70 of 116 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 10:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 27 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 17 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 9 of 23 | 39% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 30 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:22 |
| Kanako Murata | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 23 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 31 of 65 | 47% | 21 of 49 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 3 | 10 of 36 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 19 |
| Kanako Murata | 34 of 64 | 53% | 27 of 55 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 40 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 17 of 35 | 48% | 10 of 22 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 20 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 |
| Kanako Murata | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 9 of 23 | 39% | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 9 |
| Kanako Murata | 9 of 19 | 47% | 8 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Kanako Murata | 16 of 29 | 55% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 27 |
Angelo picks Kanako Murata despite a two-year layoff, reasoning that she is young (30) and likely to be the same or better. He highlights her great wrestling, solid BJJ defense, and constant forward pressure with takedown threats. He believes the same version of Murata from a few years ago dominates Vanessa Demopoulos. He has a small parlay including Murata, though he admits it's risky.
Big Brady is confident in Kanako Murata, praising her wrestling and grappling as some of the best in the division. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos has poor takedown defense and is content to fight off her back, which plays into Murata's strengths. He expects Murata to control the fight on the ground and eventually find a submission, predicting a second-round submission win.
Cody picks Demopoulos as a dog, citing Murata's long layoff, broken arm, and lack of a Plan B if wrestling fails. He believes Demopoulos's BJJ and forward pressure could cause problems, and that Murata may be hesitant. He sees value in the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Kanako Murata but is not confident at -360. He notes Murata's grinding top control and ability to neutralize opponents, but also acknowledges Vanessa Demopoulos's dangerous armbar from guard and her high effort. He sees Murata winning by decision but says it's a dog-or-pass situation and he wouldn't parlay it.
Lucrative James is confident Murata wins easily, citing her youth, prime condition, and all-around tools. He thinks Demopoulos is old and relies on low-percentage submissions like an armbar from guard. He predicts Murata by decision, as both are tough enough to survive.
Murata has been out for over two years, but she is a strong wrestler with top pressure. She should be able to close the distance, drag Demopoulos to the ground, and control her from top position. Demopoulos has shown holes in her striking and has been submitted before. However, the long layoff makes me hesitant on the chalky line. Expect Murata to win by decision.
Paul picks Demopoulos, agreeing with Cody. He notes Murata's low striking volume and long layoff, and believes Demopoulos can win a volume striking fight or via submission. He likes the plus 275 price and considers a submission prop.
The MMA Guru picks Kanako Murata over Vanessa Demopoulos. He likes that Murata took time off after an injury and likely improved. He notes Murata's win over Emily Ducote on the regional scene and her confidence in fighting a veteran early in her career. He criticizes Demopoulos for being 'coddled' and having questionable decisions, and believes Murata is more consistent. He predicts a close competitive decision but mentions potential finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 139 of 237 | 58% | 148 of 249 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 68 of 221 | 30% | 83 of 237 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 55 of 82 | 67% | 56 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 22 of 86 | 25% | 22 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 0 | 42 of 71 | 59% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 18 of 64 | 28% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 139 of 237 | 58% | 94 of 187 | 30 of 33 | 15 of 17 | 134 of 230 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 68 of 221 | 30% | 49 of 190 | 13 of 23 | 6 of 8 | 65 of 216 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 84 | 50% | 33 of 73 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 77 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 28 of 71 | 39% | 20 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 66 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 55 of 82 | 67% | 30 of 55 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 55 of 82 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 22 of 86 | 25% | 13 of 71 | 7 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 42 of 71 | 59% | 31 of 59 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 42 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 18 of 64 | 28% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 18 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vanessa Demopoulos because he thinks Karolina is aging out and didn't look good in her last fight, needing grappling to get a sketchy decision. He believes Vanessa is a solid grappler herself, sets a nice pace, and can hang with the striking. He expects Vanessa to outwork Karolina and win by decision.
Big Brady picks Vanessa Demopoulos as the underdog to submit Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the second round. He notes Demopoulos has improved her wrestling and has a dog mentality, while Kowalkiewicz is the better striker but has been inconsistent. He believes if Demopoulos can get takedowns, she can control and submit Kowalkiewicz. However, he admits he doesn't have a ton of confidence in the pick.
Cody believes Kowalkiewicz's striking and takedown defense will be enough to outpoint Demopoulos. He notes Demopoulos's grappling is a threat but Kowalkiewicz has faced high-level grapplers and should be able to keep the fight standing and win a decision.
Connor picks Kowalkiewicz, noting that she has shown signs of a renaissance in her last two fights, looking like she knows how her game works again. He highlights her surprisingly strong clinch and ground game, which could overwhelm Demopoulos. However, he acknowledges that Kowalkiewicz has been in dark places and her striking at range is not damaging, making this a hesitant pick.
Daniel Levi picks Karolina Kowalkiewicz, citing her experience and recent win. He believes Kowalkiewicz at her best is clearly ahead of Demopoulos, who is still developing. He acknowledges Demopoulos's grit and Jiu-Jitsu but thinks Kowalkiewicz's striking and veteran savvy will earn her a decision. He has a soft spot for Kowalkiewicz since she cashed a plus-215 underdog bet for him against Rose Namajunas.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, believing her BJJ black belt and strength in clinch and wrestling positions will allow her to take the fight to the ground. He thinks Kowalkiewicz's improved grappling confidence may get her into trouble. He predicts a submission win for Demopoulos, though notes if it stays standing, Kowalkiewicz has the advantage.
Paul is surprised by the line and sees value on Kowalkiewicz. He notes her experience and recent wins, and thinks Demopoulos's grappling is not at a level to trouble her. He expects Kowalkiewicz to win a clear decision.
The MMA Guru sides with Karolina Kowalkiewicz, believing she is more well-rounded and has better striking. He dismisses Vanessa Demopoulos as not very talented and suggests she has received gifted decisions due to promotability. He notes Kowalkiewicz's recent wins over Silvana Gomez Juarez and her competitive losses to top fighters. He expects Kowalkiewicz to outbox Demopoulos and win a decision.
Zane picks Demopoulos, believing she is a good athlete who is improving quickly and will keep showing up and surprising. He thinks Kowalkiewicz may get a round of dominant grappling but will have trouble controlling Demopoulos and putting a stamp on other rounds. Zane is not confident in Kowalkiewicz's current form and sees Demopoulos's athleticism and power as potential factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 1 | 55 of 80 | 68% | 121 of 154 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 7:59 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 83 of 154 | 53% | 95 of 166 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 31 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 28 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 1 | 27 of 36 | 75% | 58 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 24 of 43 | 55% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 32 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:40 |
| Maria Oliveira | 0 | 35 of 65 | 53% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 55 of 80 | 68% | 44 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 18 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 38 |
| Maria Oliveira | 83 of 154 | 53% | 55 of 124 | 20 of 21 | 8 of 9 | 80 of 151 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 14 of 23 | 60% | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Maria Oliveira | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 27 of 36 | 75% | 23 of 32 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 19 |
| Maria Oliveira | 24 of 43 | 55% | 15 of 32 | 7 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 10 |
| Maria Oliveira | 35 of 65 | 53% | 25 of 55 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 66 of 139 | 47% | 71 of 144 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 4:14 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 62 of 133 | 46% | 81 of 153 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 11 of 32 | 34% | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 17 of 45 | 37% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 27 of 56 | 48% | 30 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 35 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 66 of 139 | 47% | 34 of 100 | 25 of 31 | 7 of 8 | 40 of 107 | 26 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 62 of 133 | 46% | 49 of 116 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 58 of 128 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 11 of 32 | 34% | 6 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 17 of 45 | 37% | 15 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 24 of 52 | 46% | 14 of 41 | 7 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 44 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 27 of 56 | 48% | 20 of 48 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vanessa Demopoulos | 31 of 55 | 56% | 14 of 35 | 15 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 33 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
| Jinh Yu Frey | 18 of 32 | 56% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jinh Yu Frey, expecting her to slow the pace with bully-style grappling and beat Vanessa Demopoulos similarly to how Lupita Godinez did in the LFA. He acknowledges Vanessa's dangerous ground game and that lesser opponents have submitted Frey before, but believes Frey's physicality and forward pressure will earn her a unanimous decision win.
Big Brady picks Jinh Yu Frey to win by decision. He notes that Frey has a striking advantage and excellent takedown defense (90%), while Demopoulos has no wrestling and poor takedown success. However, he criticizes the -275 price as too high for a low-volume striker like Frey, and warns that Demopoulos's activity could make the fight look close. He ultimately expects Frey to outstrike Demopoulos and keep the fight standing.
Cody picks Frey, citing her better striking and takedown defense. He thinks she will win by decision, noting Demopoulos has never scored a takedown in the UFC. He warns against heavy investment at -260 but thinks Frey by decision is a solid play.
Paul picks Demopoulos by submission at +800, noting her only path to victory is a submission. He thinks the value is too good to pass up, even though Frey is the better striker. He acknowledges it's a longshot but worth a small bet.
The host picks Vanessa Demopoulos as an underdog, citing that Jinh Yu Frey lost to Kay Hansen, which is a bad look. He notes Demopoulos is younger (7-4 record) and moving down to strawweight, while Frey is 37. He expects Demopoulos to win by decision, winning scrambles and controlling the fight.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Aldrich, citing her veteran experience, grinding style, and ability to bully Demopoulos against the cage. He notes Demopoulos is moving up in weight on short notice, lacks power, and has been taken down before. He expects Aldrich to win a unanimous decision.
Cody picks Aldrich confidently, citing her technical striking and massive reach advantage (8 inches). He notes that Demopoulos has poor striking and no wrestling, relying on jiu-jitsu. Cody thinks Aldrich will keep the fight standing and pick Demopoulos apart with jabs and kicks. He is not worried about the Apex cage because women's flyweights don't need much space.
Jacob picks Demopoulos, calling her a female Ryan Hall who loves heel hooks and imanari rolls. He believes she will get the fight to the ground and submit Aldrich. He almost made her his lock of the week and has a bet on her by submission.
Lock picks Aldrich by decision at -145, believing her striking and size advantage will control the fight. He notes Aldrich's straight shots and forward pressure will be too much for Demopoulos, who is a punching bag on the feet. Lock thinks Aldrich can win anywhere but prefers to keep it standing. He acknowledges Demopoulos has submission threats but doubts she can get them.
Paul picks Aldrich, agreeing with the reach advantage and noting that Demopoulos has a 59-inch reach. He thinks Aldrich will use her jab and movement to win a decision. Paul is slightly concerned about Demopoulos' jiu-jitsu if she gets top position, but believes Aldrich's takedown defense will hold up.
The Guru picks JJ Aldrich confidently, citing her underrated skills, experience against tough competition, and training at a high-level gym with Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. He notes that Vanessa Demopoulos lost on the Contender Series and has not faced the same level of opponents. The Guru expects Aldrich to win by decision.
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