UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021 · Catchweight (140 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze
Age 30
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 46
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Leomana Martinez
4.33 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.94 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.72 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
25.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Guido Cannetti
3.44 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.84 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.27 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Leomana Martinez
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel -110
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetMGM +450
Guido Cannetti
Moneyline
Caesars +240
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
FanDuel +750
Decision
BetMGM +550
Leomana Martinez - Fight History
LOSS vs Cameron Saaiman
Decision (majority) (29–26, 28–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cameron Saaiman 0 60 of 148 40% 63 of 160 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leomana Martinez 1 117 of 240 48% 146 of 272 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cameron Saaiman 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leomana Martinez 0 40 of 85 47% 41 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Cameron Saaiman 0 18 of 45 40% 20 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leomana Martinez 1 32 of 71 45% 44 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:12
3 Cameron Saaiman 0 14 of 36 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leomana Martinez 0 45 of 84 53% 61 of 101 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cameron Saaiman 60 of 148 40% 40 of 125 15 of 18 5 of 5 58 of 144 2 of 4 0 of 0
Leomana Martinez 117 of 240 48% 66 of 175 23 of 30 28 of 35 85 of 191 1 of 3 31 of 46
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cameron Saaiman 28 of 67 41% 19 of 56 5 of 7 4 of 4 28 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Leomana Martinez 40 of 85 47% 14 of 52 11 of 14 15 of 19 40 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Cameron Saaiman 18 of 45 40% 10 of 36 7 of 8 1 of 1 17 of 42 1 of 3 0 of 0
Leomana Martinez 32 of 71 45% 22 of 56 3 of 6 7 of 9 20 of 49 0 of 1 12 of 21
3 Cameron Saaiman 14 of 36 38% 11 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Leomana Martinez 45 of 84 53% 30 of 67 9 of 10 6 of 7 25 of 57 1 of 2 19 of 25
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Angelo leans towards Leomana Martinez, citing his raw power, durability, and relentless pressure. He notes that Saaiman was losing his last fight before getting a late knockout and is relatively untested. Angelo is not confident enough to bet but sees value in Martinez as an underdog.

inside distance decision no action
"I like Mana Martinez I think Mana could actually get this done he's the more dangerous fighter I think he has more raw power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Big Brady picks Cameron Saaiman, highlighting his excellent cardio, pressure, and volume that breaks opponents. He notes Martinez has power but fades as the fight goes on, while Saaiman gets better. He predicts a third-round knockout for Saaiman, though he acknowledges Martinez's power makes it risky.

third round knockout
"I'm gonna say Simon gets Mana Martinez out of here in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Cody picks Saaiman, citing his volume and durability. He thinks Martinez has power but low volume and questionable cardio. He expects Saaiman to take over as the fight goes on and win by decision or late TKO.

Live bet Saaiman if he survives the first round
"I think salmon takes over if salmon gets dropped in the first round but survives and I can get some plus money on him going into the second and third I take the live hit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Connor picks Cameron Saaiman, though he is not very confident. He notes that Saaiman is a marginally better athlete than Martinez and has shown some functional aggression. However, he acknowledges that Martinez is tough, determined, and more comprehensive in his game, and that Saaiman's takedown defense and striking defense are poor. Connor thinks Saaiman's athleticism and willingness to push the pace might be enough.

"I'm gonna pick Simon I think but it is, you know, it is interesting in that. It's just I would say not a UFC level bantamweight bout."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Jacob picks Cameron Saaiman, citing his speed, pressure, and good scrambles. He notes that Martinez lacks volume and urgency at times, which could be his downfall. However, Jacob is not super high on Saaiman and is leaving him out of parlays due to the risk.

"I think Cameron's gonna have the speed advantage and the pressure advantage in the Striking"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Saaiman is a scrappy fighter with good speed, footwork, and grappling reversals. Martinez has power but a clear ceiling and a recent camp change. Saaiman's skill set should nullify Martinez's threats and he wins by decision or late finish.

"I think a lot of Cameron Simon and I think that this is his fight to lose he is absolutely going to go out there and have his way in my opinion with mono Martinez"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

Paul picks Saaiman but is not confident at -300. He notes Saaiman looked green in his debut and Martinez has more UFC experience. He won't bet it but expects Saaiman to get the job done.

"I'll pick salmon uh moving on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Cameron Saaiman

The MMA Guru picks Cameron Saaiman, praising his versatility in stand-up, clinch, and grappling. He notes Martinez is limited and that Saaiman has more ways to win, predicting a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Cameron Simon here... I think he gets this one done by decision 2928."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Zane picks Leomana Martinez, reasoning that Martinez is a more complete martial artist who will pressure Saaiman and find good positions. He notes that Saaiman is reckless and disorganized, while Martinez is tough and will do a little bit of everything. Zane thinks Martinez's experience and composure will allow him to win a messy fight.

"I guess I'll take Martinez because you know, he he is at least very tough and and and and he's a determined fighter."
WIN vs Brandon Davis
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leomana Martinez 2 87 of 161 54% 87 of 162 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:45
Brandon Davis 0 76 of 181 41% 84 of 189 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leomana Martinez 0 31 of 55 56% 31 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brandon Davis 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
2 Leomana Martinez 2 37 of 62 59% 37 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Brandon Davis 0 29 of 55 52% 29 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Leomana Martinez 0 19 of 44 43% 19 of 45 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:39
Brandon Davis 0 23 of 69 33% 31 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leomana Martinez 87 of 161 54% 45 of 108 25 of 34 17 of 19 82 of 154 3 of 5 2 of 2
Brandon Davis 76 of 181 41% 43 of 139 16 of 24 17 of 18 69 of 170 3 of 4 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leomana Martinez 31 of 55 56% 12 of 31 12 of 15 7 of 9 31 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brandon Davis 24 of 57 42% 14 of 44 5 of 8 5 of 5 23 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Leomana Martinez 37 of 62 59% 21 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 6 32 of 55 3 of 5 2 of 2
Brandon Davis 29 of 55 52% 14 of 39 4 of 5 11 of 11 29 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leomana Martinez 19 of 44 43% 12 of 34 3 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brandon Davis 23 of 69 33% 15 of 56 7 of 11 1 of 2 17 of 59 2 of 3 4 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Angelo picks Leomana Martinez, citing his cleaner technique, power, and heart shown in the Ronnie Lawrence fight. He notes that Brandon Davis has a wrestling advantage and took Giga Chikadze down three times, but Mana showed incredible resilience and never stops coming forward. He trusts Mana to fight for the win.

"I gotta go with Mana here because of that cleaner technique and I know that if he gets into trouble he's not going to stop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Big Brady picks Leomana Martinez to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Martinez's power (finished all regional wins in the first round, knocked out Ricky Turcios) and notes that Brandon Davis was knocked out in his last fight and has been hurt before. He believes Davis's takedown threat is minimal and that Martinez's power will be too much. He calls Martinez the more dangerous striker.

Martinez wins by first-round knockout
"I think Mana puts him out here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Cody picks Martinez but is not confident. He notes Martinez has huge power and a nasty left hook, and could knock Davis out. However, he acknowledges Davis is a volume puncher and could push the pace. He thinks Martinez might win by knockout but is not willing to bet heavily.

"I'm gonna take Mana Martinez I got a feeling that he might even be able to knock about but I'm not going to get greedy."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

Martinez is the better striker with power, and his cardio has improved. Davis has suspect takedown defense and could be a live underdog if he gets the fight to the mat. However, Martinez's takedown defense is a concern; if he can keep it standing, he should win by knockout. The host is not betting the moneyline but likes Martinez inside the distance at +240.

Leomana Martinez inside the distance +240
"give me Martinez inside the distance plus 240 hope that can cash"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Davis

Paul leans towards Davis as a dog, noting Davis has fought high-level competition and has a junkyard dog style. He thinks Davis can push the pace, score takedowns, and potentially win if he survives the first round. However, he is on the fence and might switch back to Martinez.

"I'm leaning towards the dog with you right now... Brandon Davis dog number four I think he can hopefully push a pace on Mana."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Leomana Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Leomana Martinez, refusing to fall for Brandon Davis as an underdog. He criticizes Davis as hit-or-miss and notes his poor weight cut to 135. He believes Martinez will hold his own in grappling and win on the feet, catching an aggressive Davis and finishing by TKO in the first round.

prediction: TKO in round 1
"I'm not falling for the Brandon Davis Underdog I'm picking Mana Martinez"
LOSS vs Ronnie Lawrence
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ronnie Lawrence 2 39 of 78 50% 105 of 156 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:08
Leomana Martinez 3 46 of 82 56% 63 of 99 6 of 7 85% 0 1 8:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ronnie Lawrence 0 6 of 14 42% 37 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Leomana Martinez 1 20 of 33 60% 30 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
2 Ronnie Lawrence 0 3 of 10 30% 17 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:02
Leomana Martinez 2 14 of 27 51% 20 of 33 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:55
3 Ronnie Lawrence 2 30 of 54 55% 51 of 81 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
Leomana Martinez 0 12 of 22 54% 13 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ronnie Lawrence 39 of 78 50% 24 of 59 8 of 11 7 of 8 32 of 65 0 of 2 7 of 11
Leomana Martinez 46 of 82 56% 30 of 59 6 of 12 10 of 11 28 of 49 0 of 0 18 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ronnie Lawrence 6 of 14 42% 3 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 4 5 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Leomana Martinez 20 of 33 60% 11 of 22 2 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 13
2 Ronnie Lawrence 3 of 10 30% 1 of 5 2 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1
Leomana Martinez 14 of 27 51% 11 of 22 2 of 4 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 19
3 Ronnie Lawrence 30 of 54 55% 20 of 44 6 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 43 0 of 2 6 of 9
Leomana Martinez 12 of 22 54% 8 of 15 2 of 4 2 of 3 11 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Angelo is confident in Lawrence due to his relentless wrestling, noting his insane takedown numbers. He acknowledges that Martinez has power and will have opportunities on the feet when Lawrence's opponents get up, but believes Lawrence will shoot a million takedowns and control Martinez to remove the power threat. He calls it a parlay piece rather than a straight moneyline bet due to the odds.

parlay piece
"this is a pretty confident pick i'm going with ronnie and his wrestling the odds are absurd in this fight so he is more of a parlay piece than anything"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Big Brady likes Lawrence's wrestling and fight IQ, noting he has landed 20 takedowns in two fights. He believes Lawrence will take Martinez down early and often, grinding out a decision. He acknowledges Martinez has power and could knock Lawrence out, but thinks Lawrence is smart enough to avoid that. Brady also notes Martinez's last performance was poor due to personal issues, but expects a better version. He picks Lawrence by decision.

Lawrence by decision
"give me ronnie lawrence to win a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Cody agrees, noting Martinez has shown poor takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Lawrence's pressure and grappling will be too much, and that Martinez's only path is an early knockout. He expects Lawrence to win decisively.

"ronnie lawrence is gonna be a pivotal piece of a lot of the lineups for sure"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Daniel Levi picks Ronnie Lawrence, praising his relentless takedown attempts and work rate. He notes that Martinez has power but tends to wait, and that Lawrence's pressure will grind him down. Levi expects Lawrence to win a decision, as Martinez's knockout power is overrated against better competition.

"give me ronnie lawrence to defeat the very tough and hard-hitting leo mana martinez"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Lawrence is a strong wrestler with excellent takedowns and top control. He should easily take Martinez down and overwhelm him. Martinez has decent striking but poor takedown defense. Lawrence's only concern is his weight cut, but if he makes weight, he should finish Martinez. The inside the distance line is a good play.

inside the distance; under 2.5 rounds; Lawrence by TKO in round 2
"i really like lawrence in the spot i completely understand why he's in that minus 300 range he is absolutely deserving of being in that range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

Paul is high on Lawrence, calling him a top prospect. He notes Lawrence's relentless pressure, takedowns, and cardio. He thinks Martinez is a first-round banger with no backup plan and that Lawrence will dominate on the ground.

"ronnie lawrence is gonna be a pivotal piece of a lot of the lineups for sure"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ronnie Lawrence

The MMA Guru picks Ronnie Lawrence by unanimous decision, citing his unorthodox footwork and grappling. He believes Martinez struggled against lesser competition and will be confused by Lawrence's style.

unanimous decision 30-26
"i'm going to be going with ronnie lawrence here"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leomana Martinez 0 79 of 157 50% 88 of 169 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:07
Guido Cannetti 0 66 of 109 60% 68 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leomana Martinez 0 19 of 32 59% 21 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Guido Cannetti 0 27 of 37 72% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
2 Leomana Martinez 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Guido Cannetti 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Leomana Martinez 0 36 of 74 48% 43 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Guido Cannetti 0 16 of 32 50% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leomana Martinez 79 of 157 50% 35 of 98 31 of 44 13 of 15 72 of 147 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 66 of 109 60% 21 of 57 13 of 19 32 of 33 64 of 105 0 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leomana Martinez 19 of 32 59% 8 of 20 8 of 8 3 of 4 19 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 27 of 37 72% 5 of 11 6 of 9 16 of 17 25 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Leomana Martinez 24 of 51 47% 8 of 29 11 of 16 5 of 6 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 23 of 40 57% 8 of 22 4 of 7 11 of 11 23 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leomana Martinez 36 of 74 48% 19 of 49 12 of 20 5 of 5 29 of 64 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 16 of 32 50% 8 of 24 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.

Martinez is -350 favorite; Angelo suggests chasing a first-round stoppage for better odds.
"i just really don't see amanda martinez having an issue here other than i can i have no idea what his headspace will be like"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.

fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i'm expecting to see amanda martinez knockout uh probably in round one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.

Jacob will place a bet on Martinez, likely a first-round stoppage prop for better odds than -350.
"i honestly think that martinez should and will uh dominate this fight and probably flatline uh guido inside of two and a half minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.

under 1.5 rounds -105, fight doesn't go to decision -260, Martinez by KO -110
"i do think it's ultimately going to be martinez who gets the knockout here uh minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i think mana martinez is the clear and obvious choice here right he should go out there and he should be able to get the the first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)

The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.

Martinez by TKO in round 1
"i'm gonna have to go with mana martinez here getting a finish i'll say he gets it done by tko in the first round"
Guido Cannetti - Fight History
LOSS vs Mario Bautista
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:18 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mario Bautista 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:36
Guido Cannetti 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mario Bautista 0 3 of 4 75% 5 of 6 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:36
Guido Cannetti 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mario Bautista 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2
Guido Cannetti 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mario Bautista 3 of 4 75% 2 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2
Guido Cannetti 2 of 5 40% 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.

Mario Bautista inside the distance bet suggestion
"Mario Batista inside the distance is probably the most value you'll get on him at these odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.

win by submission in round 1
"give me Mario Batista to win this fight by first round submission and I think it makes it look pretty easy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.

Bautista by submission +100
"I go Batista Batiste to buy submission which is plus 100. not a good price tag considering it's a submission prop but what I would think is the most likely outcome"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.

Bautista opened -350, now -1025; Cannetti opened +285, now +639. Connor notes the odds are too wide and suggests Bautista by TKO/KO at +1600 might be worth a look.
"So Batista has got to be the pick. It'll be fun though."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.

Bautista inside the distance, by submission
"Bautista is looking career best and I'm expecting him to go out there and get another win especially my finish I think it looks dominant as well and I think it happens within 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.

Bautista by submission +100; mentions Cannetti by first-round KO at +3000 (moved to +1600)
"Bautista I guess for the purposes of picking would be my pick to win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.

by submission
"I'm gonna go with Mario Batista getting this one done by submission I think he'll take down Guido get his back and Serb him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mario Bautista

Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.

"I'm not that confident to be honest, it's like, this is basically Chandler hooker. ... I am going to take Batista because it's tough to pick the Kennedy knowing that despite all the success he could have early, he is …"
WIN vs Randy Costa
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Oct 01, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Randy Costa 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 1 of 5 3 of 3 4 of 5 8 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Randy Costa 2 of 7 28% 0 of 3 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.

Under 2.5 rounds; Guido Cannetti by KO in round 2
"I think Guido's getting stopped here so I got the the under sure to God this place not going 15 full minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Randy Costa

Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision -400; Guido Cannetti round 2 KO at 25-1
"I think Costa wins I guess for the purposes of this show I'll pick Costa but I'm kind of interesting we'll see where the props land"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.

first round KO
"Give me Guido Cannetti... catch him early and put him away KO. Randy has no chin."
WIN vs Kris Moutinho
TKO (punches) R1 2:07 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 30 36% 11 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kris Moutinho 0 28 of 44 63% 28 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 11 of 30 36% 8 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 3 11 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kris Moutinho 28 of 44 63% 18 of 31 5 of 7 5 of 6 21 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.

"i will lean motino here just because of his durability i mean anybody who can take that kind of beating i just kind of lean on him there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.

"i'm gonna take moutinho hesitantly i'm definitely not betting it especially as a favorite"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.

"i'm gonna go chris matino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.

Over 2.5 rounds at minus 130 is mentioned as a lean; Cannetti KO at plus 500 is noted as a hedge.
"I believe it's going to be Moutinho landing the crisper shots down the middle. I don't think he puts out Cannetti. So, I do think that we see Moutinho go out there and win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kris Moutinho

Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.

"moutino is where i would pick here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.

TKO or submission; underdog bet
"i'm going to wait until i put some money on guido connetti as an underdog here against chris moutinho i get that he took punishment for three rounds against o'malley but he's absolute garbage at fighting"
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leomana Martinez 0 79 of 157 50% 88 of 169 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:07
Guido Cannetti 0 66 of 109 60% 68 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leomana Martinez 0 19 of 32 59% 21 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Guido Cannetti 0 27 of 37 72% 28 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:28
2 Leomana Martinez 0 24 of 51 47% 24 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Guido Cannetti 0 23 of 40 57% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Leomana Martinez 0 36 of 74 48% 43 of 83 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
Guido Cannetti 0 16 of 32 50% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leomana Martinez 79 of 157 50% 35 of 98 31 of 44 13 of 15 72 of 147 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 66 of 109 60% 21 of 57 13 of 19 32 of 33 64 of 105 0 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leomana Martinez 19 of 32 59% 8 of 20 8 of 8 3 of 4 19 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 27 of 37 72% 5 of 11 6 of 9 16 of 17 25 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Leomana Martinez 24 of 51 47% 8 of 29 11 of 16 5 of 6 24 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 23 of 40 57% 8 of 22 4 of 7 11 of 11 23 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Leomana Martinez 36 of 74 48% 19 of 49 12 of 20 5 of 5 29 of 64 3 of 4 4 of 6
Guido Cannetti 16 of 32 50% 8 of 24 3 of 3 5 of 5 16 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.

Martinez is -350 favorite; Angelo suggests chasing a first-round stoppage for better odds.
"i just really don't see amanda martinez having an issue here other than i can i have no idea what his headspace will be like"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.

fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i'm expecting to see amanda martinez knockout uh probably in round one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.

Jacob will place a bet on Martinez, likely a first-round stoppage prop for better odds than -350.
"i honestly think that martinez should and will uh dominate this fight and probably flatline uh guido inside of two and a half minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.

under 1.5 rounds -105, fight doesn't go to decision -260, Martinez by KO -110
"i do think it's ultimately going to be martinez who gets the knockout here uh minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i think mana martinez is the clear and obvious choice here right he should go out there and he should be able to get the the first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)

The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.

Martinez by TKO in round 1
"i'm gonna have to go with mana martinez here getting a finish i'll say he gets it done by tko in the first round"
LOSS vs Danaa Batgerel
KO (punches) R1 3:01 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danaa Batgerel 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danaa Batgerel 1 17 of 33 51% 17 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Guido Cannetti 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danaa Batgerel 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 5
Guido Cannetti 11 of 23 47% 0 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 10 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danaa Batgerel 17 of 33 51% 16 of 29 0 of 2 1 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 1 5 of 5
Guido Cannetti 11 of 23 47% 0 of 7 3 of 6 8 of 10 9 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Danaa Batgerel

Daniel picks Danaa Batgerel to win, but with caution. He notes that Cannetti is explosive in the first round but tends to fade if he faces adversity. He believes Batgerel can take over in the second and third rounds and win a decision, but it's contingent on him not getting badly hurt in the first.

Daniel says from a betting perspective there's a certain price limit, and he thinks it's accurately lined. He calls it a pass.
"I'll pick Batgerel but I don't want to say I think it's a pass way man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Guido Cannetti

Both fighters are aggressive strikers; Batgerel is more technical, Cannetti is a brawler. The fight likely ends inside the distance. The host prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at plus money rather than picking a side. He picks Cannetti by TKO but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.

Under 2.5 rounds at +102 to +110.
"I'd rather bet the under two and a half which is probably what I'm gonna do as long as I get that plus money on it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Danaa Batgerel

The MMA Guru picks Danaa Batgerel based on his better UFC record (6-2) and youth advantage over the 40-year-old Guido Cannetti. He notes Cannetti is smaller with less reach and questions why he is still fighting at his age. He expects Batgerel to get the job done with his Asian power moves.

"I'm going with Dana Batgirl I think he's gonna get a job done Asian power moves are EV love EV"
LOSS vs Marlon Vera
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Nov 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marlon Vera 0 24 of 42 57% 37 of 56 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Guido Cannetti 1 24 of 35 68% 36 of 48 2 of 2 100% 2 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marlon Vera 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 49 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:32
Guido Cannetti 0 8 of 13 61% 20 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:53
2 Marlon Vera 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Guido Cannetti 1 16 of 22 72% 16 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marlon Vera 24 of 42 57% 11 of 25 8 of 10 5 of 7 8 of 23 8 of 11 8 of 8
Guido Cannetti 24 of 35 68% 13 of 18 10 of 14 1 of 3 3 of 10 17 of 19 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marlon Vera 21 of 35 60% 9 of 19 8 of 10 4 of 6 6 of 19 7 of 8 8 of 8
Guido Cannetti 8 of 13 61% 0 of 3 7 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 3 6 of 8 1 of 2
2 Marlon Vera 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 3 0 of 0
Guido Cannetti 16 of 22 72% 13 of 15 3 of 6 0 of 1 2 of 7 11 of 11 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Marlon Vera vs. Guido Cannetti

Round 1
Vera pushes Cannetti backward with a body kick, but the “Ninja” comes back at Vera with a Thai clinch and a knee to the body. Vera turns the tables with a quick takedown; Cannetti throws up an armbar, then jumps back on his feet when Vera lifts him for a slam. After tagging Vera with a combination, it’s Cannetti’s turn to score a takedown, slamming “Chito” to the floor at the base of the fence. Vera slowly works his way back to his feet, and the bantamweights disengage inside the three-minute mark. Vera is forced to cover up again as Cannetti blitzes him with wild punching combinations and body kicks, unconcerned with any of Vera’s attempted counters. Cannetti misses on a punch to the body, allowing Vera to wrap him up and push him to the fence. Vera stomps on Cannetti’s feet, but it’s the Argentine hitting an outside trip to put Vera on his back a second time. Cannetti spends 30 seconds trying to break Vera’s posture and find an opening for some ground-and-pound. Eventually, Cannetti stands up and kicks at the legs of Vera, keeping the Ecuadorian grounded until the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cannetti

Round 2
Vera attacks Cannetti with clinch knees, first to the body and then one to the head that sends “Ninja” to the canvas. As Cannetti stands up and drives on Vera’s legs, the Ecuadorian sizes him up for a guillotine and jumps guard. Cannetti frees himself from the choke, but after escaping to his feet, Vera keeps him trapped on the fence to tee off with more knees and punches. Vera reaps the leg of Cannetti and trips him to the ground, then
attaches himself to Cannetti’s back with a body triangle and forces him to tap out
with a lightning fast rear-naked choke.

The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Guido Cannetti via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 1:31
WIN vs Diego Rivas
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Guido Cannetti 0 22 of 46 47% 26 of 50 2 of 5 40% 1 0 3:04
Diego Rivas 0 25 of 53 47% 44 of 75 1 of 3 33% 1 1 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Guido Cannetti 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Diego Rivas 0 13 of 19 68% 25 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:37
2 Guido Cannetti 0 3 of 5 60% 6 of 8 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:00
Diego Rivas 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:15
3 Guido Cannetti 0 16 of 37 43% 17 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:44
Diego Rivas 0 8 of 28 28% 8 of 28 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Guido Cannetti 22 of 46 47% 10 of 23 7 of 17 5 of 6 8 of 31 13 of 14 1 of 1
Diego Rivas 25 of 53 47% 12 of 35 6 of 11 7 of 7 10 of 32 7 of 12 8 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Guido Cannetti 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Diego Rivas 13 of 19 68% 9 of 14 2 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 3 5 of 8 7 of 8
2 Guido Cannetti 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Diego Rivas 4 of 6 66% 1 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Guido Cannetti 16 of 37 43% 9 of 22 5 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 26 10 of 11 0 of 0
Diego Rivas 8 of 28 28% 2 of 19 1 of 4 5 of 5 6 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
LOSS vs Kyung Ho Kang
Submission (triangle choke) R1 4:53 · UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Jan 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyung Ho Kang 0 3 of 11 27% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:38
Guido Cannetti 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyung Ho Kang 0 3 of 11 27% 28 of 36 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:38
Guido Cannetti 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyung Ho Kang 3 of 11 27% 3 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
Guido Cannetti 19 of 39 48% 12 of 29 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 29 5 of 5 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyung Ho Kang 3 of 11 27% 3 of 9 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2
Guido Cannetti 19 of 39 48% 12 of 29 4 of 7 3 of 3 9 of 29 5 of 5 5 of 5
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.

Martinez is -350 favorite; Angelo suggests chasing a first-round stoppage for better odds.
"i just really don't see amanda martinez having an issue here other than i can i have no idea what his headspace will be like"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.

fight doesn't go to decision (parlay piece); under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i'm expecting to see amanda martinez knockout uh probably in round one"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.

Jacob will place a bet on Martinez, likely a first-round stoppage prop for better odds than -350.
"i honestly think that martinez should and will uh dominate this fight and probably flatline uh guido inside of two and a half minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.

under 1.5 rounds -105, fight doesn't go to decision -260, Martinez by KO -110
"i do think it's ultimately going to be martinez who gets the knockout here uh minus 110"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
No clear pick

Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.

under 2.5 rounds; Martinez inside the distance by TKO
"i think mana martinez is the clear and obvious choice here right he should go out there and he should be able to get the the first round knockout"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
No clear pick

The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.

Martinez by TKO in round 1
"i'm gonna have to go with mana martinez here getting a finish i'll say he gets it done by tko in the first round"