vs
+108 -120
UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze Next Fight
Age 37
Height 6' 0"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Giga Chikadze
3.75 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.47 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.18 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Edson Barboza
4.14 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.68 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Giga Chikadze
Moneyline
FanDuel +108
KO/TKO
BetRivers +240
Submission
FanDuel +2800
Decision
FanDuel +420
Edson Barboza
Moneyline
Caesars -120
KO/TKO
BetRivers +260
Submission
BetWay +1600
Decision
FanDuel +320
Giga Chikadze - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R2 1:29 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 12 of 22 54% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 20 of 32 62% 23 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 9 of 17 52% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 0 9 of 18 50% 12 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
2 Giga Chikadze 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 22 54% 2 of 10 10 of 10 0 of 2 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 20 of 32 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 4 of 5 15 of 26 1 of 2 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 9 of 17 52% 1 of 8 8 of 8 0 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 9 of 18 50% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 11 of 14 78% 8 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0 4 of 4
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Vallejos, citing Giga's age, injuries, and lack of interest. He notes Vallejos's youth, durability, and pressure style, and expects him to outwork Giga by mixing in takedowns and volume. He predicts a decision win for Vallejos.

Vallejos by decision +150
"I got Kevin Vallejos to get the job done here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Lucrative James is a fan of Kevin Vallejos and picks him to win, possibly by knockout. He highlights Vallejos' youth, athleticism, power, and multiple paths to victory, including grappling and boxing. He notes Giga Chikadze's cardio issues and susceptibility to grappling, and believes Vallejos can finish him. He projects Vallejos as a -250 favorite.

"I'm picking Kevin in this fight. I think he's going to go out there and I'm going to pick a KO outright."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Paul also picks Vallejos, emphasizing that the key to beating Giga is constant pressure, which Vallejos excels at. He mentions Vallejos's takedown threat and body work, and suggests a Vallejos by decision prop at plus 150.

Vallejos by decision +150
"Vallejos by decision plus 150 is the best on market. It's probably how I will approach that fight this week."
LOSS vs David Onama
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 43 of 91 47% 71 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Onama 0 49 of 87 56% 72 of 127 3 of 3 100% 0 0 6:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 21 of 43 48% 26 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Onama 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
2 Giga Chikadze 0 11 of 20 55% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Onama 0 18 of 32 56% 28 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:07
3 Giga Chikadze 0 11 of 28 39% 26 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
David Onama 0 18 of 29 62% 31 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 43 of 91 47% 23 of 66 8 of 11 12 of 14 40 of 88 2 of 2 1 of 1
David Onama 49 of 87 56% 29 of 55 1 of 6 19 of 26 38 of 75 1 of 1 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 21 of 43 48% 9 of 26 4 of 7 8 of 10 21 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Onama 13 of 26 50% 9 of 17 0 of 2 4 of 7 13 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 11 of 20 55% 8 of 17 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1
David Onama 18 of 32 56% 8 of 19 1 of 2 9 of 11 11 of 24 1 of 1 6 of 7
3 Giga Chikadze 11 of 28 39% 6 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
David Onama 18 of 29 62% 12 of 19 0 of 2 6 of 8 14 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
David Onama

Angelo picks David Onama, citing his activity and pressure against a inactive Giga Chikadze. He notes that Giga is one-dimensional and has been out for two years, while Onama is a kickboxer who should stay busy and win. The odds have moved from -150 to -183 in Onama's favor.

"David Oama should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady leans toward David Onama, assuming he will grapple. He notes Giga Chikadze's takedown defense is poor and he has been controlled on the ground before. If Onama strikes, he favors Chikadze. He predicts Onama will get takedowns, wear on Chikadze, and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"Give me David Oama to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Connor picks Chikadze because he has a significant spatial advantage over Onama, who struggles at range and needs to brawl to be effective. Chikadze's movement and ability to keep distance will make it hard for Onama to force the kind of fight he needs. Connor also notes that Chikadze is a dangerous striker who can hurt Onama, as seen in Onama's previous fights where he got hurt but survived.

"I have to pick Giga. I'm going to pick Giga Chicago as well. His chain has always seen him through just as well as it's he's Onama through."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

The host expects Onama to meet Chikadze's jab with bigger power, mix in grappling, and land more damage over 15 minutes to win on the scorecards.

"I expect him to go out there and meet the jab of Chicad with bigger power... which will lead him to win this fight on the scorecards by landing more damage over the course of 15 minutes."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze as an underdog. He believes Chikadze is a better striker and underrated, citing his close fight with Arnold Allen. He criticizes Onama's low fight IQ, poor training habits, and vulnerability to pressure. He expects Chikadze to win by TKO, as Onama has been dropped by lesser opponents.

"I'm going with Giga Traedzi. David Onarma is good, but Giga Chici just went to a 29-28 decision with Arnold Allen. And I'm gonna say it, round two was very close."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Zane picks Chikadze, agreeing with Connor that Chikadze's spatial advantage and ability to keep Onama at range will be key. Onama's only path to victory is to brawl, but Chikadze won't let him get close. Zane also notes that Onama has been hurt in almost every fight and Chikadze is a very dangerous striker who can finish him early. However, if Onama survives the early onslaught, he could win round three.

"I got to take Chicago as well. He may, he may also, like, I want to put a point in effect that like, just because Onama hasn't really been getting finished, he is getting hurt."
LOSS vs Arnold Allen
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arnold Allen 0 61 of 122 50% 61 of 122 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Giga Chikadze 0 38 of 111 34% 39 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arnold Allen 0 13 of 22 59% 13 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Giga Chikadze 0 14 of 33 42% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Arnold Allen 0 16 of 43 37% 16 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Giga Chikadze 0 13 of 40 32% 13 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Arnold Allen 0 32 of 57 56% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Giga Chikadze 0 11 of 38 28% 11 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arnold Allen 61 of 122 50% 43 of 95 16 of 22 2 of 5 61 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 38 of 111 34% 22 of 83 12 of 24 4 of 4 38 of 111 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arnold Allen 13 of 22 59% 9 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 14 of 33 42% 7 of 22 5 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Arnold Allen 16 of 43 37% 9 of 30 5 of 9 2 of 4 16 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 13 of 40 32% 9 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 2 13 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Arnold Allen 32 of 57 56% 25 of 48 7 of 8 0 of 1 32 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 11 of 38 28% 6 of 29 5 of 9 0 of 0 11 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Arnold Allen vs. Giga Chikadze
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Allen (-250), Chikadze (+205)

Round 1
A relevant featherweight encounter kicks off the main card of UFC 304, with Britain’s Allen (19-3, 10-2 UFC) trying to snap a two-fight skid at the expense of Georgian striker Chikadze (15-3, 8-1 UFC). The fans have picked their side on this one, and it is safe to say they are not rooting for the man who calls himself “Ninja.” Referee Marc Goddard will observe the proceedings for the next 15 minutes or less, and he sits back as the combatants opt not to touch gloves. Chikadze tests the waters early with a head kick, and he fires it a second time as Allen has his guard up for both of them. Chikadze kicks the side and then the front leg, only to go up high. Allen catches a body kick and tries to take Chikadze for a ride, but Chikadze bounces away and lands a kick on the way out. Allen walks him down, dinging Chikadze with a left hook as Chikadze continues to spam kicks to all three targets. Chikadze jabs and settles down, aiming a second to the chest and staying light on his feet. Allen cannot find his way in, hand-fighting and taking a body kick when trying. Chikadze sits down on a straight right hand when Allen bears down on him, and Allen takes it like a champ and gives back a high kick that hits the shoulder. Chikadze’s head kicks are all blocked, but the front forearm of his foe is reddening after absorbing the quick blows. Allen sticks a jab and ducks down to work the body before Chikadze can get away, and Chikadze gives him a body kick back to think about. A spinning wheel kick from Chikadze goes wide, and his high kick pounds into the glove of his foe. Allen responds with a single body kick, and Chikadze splits the guard with a straight right hand and follows with two speedy body kicks. Chikadze scores a check left hook and is met with a counter left hand, and Allen walks after him tossing out a kick easily blocked. Allen walks into a punch and a kick, and Chikadze pecks at him with a front kick as he constantly mixes up his attacks. Allen connects at the end of a right hand, shaking Chikadze up for a moment, but Chikadze does not back himself into a corner and instead reaches with his own right. Allen tries to wind up with leaping shots, and Chikadze is evasive and hard to get hands on. Allen ducks right into a knee, and he wobbles to the side and punts Chikadze in the face with the ball of his foot. As the Brit raises his arms in the air, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chikadze

Round 2
Allen rushes out of his corner to attack, landing a right hand out of the gate. Chikadze hand-fights to block anything else aimed his way, and he slides away from two left hooks. Chikadze zings a high kick that brushes his foe’s hair, and Allen aims a body shot in response. Allen scores a solid calf kick and powers out with a left hand, only to be met with three piston-like jabs. Allen chops at the front calf, and Chikadze gives him one right back and jabs him to boot. Allen scores two punches, and he just avoids getting blasted with a step-in knee. Allen rings Chikadze’s bell with a straight left hand, and Chikadze has to take a quick count of his teeth. Chikadze’s speed gives Allen issues, but Allen is ignoring the strikes he absorbs and coming back with venom. Allen blocks a high kick and reaches out with a left to the sternum, and his hands are high to defend against another head kick. Chikadze shakes Allen up with a head kick, and Allen knocks him back with a left hand. Chikadze shakes it off and strafes to the side, constantly moving to not remain a stationary target. Chikadze has an uppercut come up short, and Allen nearly cuts him off with a one-two. Chikadze lands, Allen gives him one back, and Chikadze is away and spamming kicks. Allen beans “Ninja” with a solid left hand, drawing blood from both nostrils. Allen has his leg kicked out on the way in, but he still manages to get off a wide left hand. Allen chambers and fires left hands, and Chikadze prods his front leg with a kick and slips the overhand left. Allen catches him with another left, and he shoves away a leaping Chikadze and kicks high. Chikadze responds with a body kick, and the back-and-forth round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
The Brit chases Chikadze around the cage as soon as the last round begins, and he manages to get his hands on Chikadze with a left hand or two. Allen walks the Georgian down, and he dodges two punches and reaches with a single shot that smears blood on Chikadze’s forehead. Chikadze comes back firing with a left over the top, and he has a body kick reach before Allen can get to him. Allen front kicks his man and elbows his way in, and Chikadze escapes as fast as he can. Allen rips a body shot and Chikadze is still ready to sling back high kicks, but they have far less sting on them than before. Allen gets off a left, takes two body kicks and continues pressuring his man around the Octagon. Chikadze steps in with a right hand and responds with a heavy left, and he follows him along with another hard left. Allen’s left hand is again accurate, and Chikadze springs into action with a body kick and a punch. Allen goes to the body and then kicks on the other side, and his left hand is hurled at Chikadze’s pectoral. Allen tosses a front kick aside and catches his foe with a left hook, and Chikadze spins but does not release anything. Allen eats a body kick without flinching so he can unload punches, and he puts a one-two down the pipe and chases Chikadze with a right. Allen ends the fight with a jump knee, and the two share an embrace and have a conversation after 15 minutes of striking.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Allen)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Allen)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Allen)

The Official Result
Arnold Allen def. Giga Chikadze via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Angelo picks Arnold Allen, noting that despite Allen being on a two-fight skid, those losses were to top competition (Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev). He argues that Allen looked better in those losses than Giga did in his win over Alex Caceres, where Giga was slow and threw few combinations. Angelo expects Allen to control the striking rhythm and predicts a decision win, possibly hitting the over on rounds.

over on round line
"I think Arnold controls the Striking Rhythm here I think this could look like when Qatar remember Calvin Qatar or Kar beat Giga Chad a few years ago this could look like that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Cody picks Arnold Allen, citing his fast starts and wrestling. He notes that Giga Chikadze has not faced many wrestlers and was taken down by Calvin Kattar, who is not known for wrestling. Cody believes Allen can pressure Giga, mix in takedowns, and win a decision. He also points out that Giga is older, injury-prone, and has had long layoffs, while Allen is a step down in competition after fighting Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev.

"I'm gonna go Arnold Allen like honestly this guy was on a very solid run and earned a lot of respect from people... I do expect him to get the victory whether he shows up and shows out and puts …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel picks Arnold Allen, citing his grappling advantage and youth. He believes Allen can out-grapple Chikadze and should avoid kickboxing with the kickboxer. He notes Allen has more gas in the tank despite two straight losses.

"I will take the almighty one"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel likes Arnold Allen's southpaw calf kicks and blitzing style but dislikes the price (-230). He thinks Giga Chikadze has cardio issues and can be drained by takedowns. He expects a close fight likely going the distance and picks Allen to edge it out.

"I'mma go Arie to to Edge it out"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jul 25, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Jeff picks Arnold Allen, noting he can win on the feet as well as by grappling. He praises Allen's body defense (except against Max Holloway) and his volume. He points out Chikadze sometimes takes long to get going and lacks volume, which Allen can exploit. He expects the line to be closer but still takes Allen.

"I like Arnold Allen in this one too I I think you know like to your point I think he could grapple in this maybe uh but I actually think he could win this fight on the feed too"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Paul leans towards Giga Chikadze as a dog, citing the value at plus 205. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be competitive and Giga has the striking advantage. Paul acknowledges the risks of jet lag and the UK crowd but thinks the line is too wide. He expects a competitive fight and is willing to take the dog.

"I think at plus 205 the value will be squarely on Giga... I'll take the dog in that type of situation."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

The MMA Guru picks Arnold Allen, believing he can use his offensive grappling to exploit Giga Chikadze's takedown defense. He notes that Chikadze has been exposed on the ground every time he's been taken down. The Guru also thinks Allen is close to Max Holloway's level, as shown in their fight, and that Chikadze's win over Alex Caceres was unimpressive. He predicts Allen will win by decision, possibly 29-28, using grappling in the later rounds.

decision
"I think Arnold Allen's got this one in the bag I don't see jetti troubling him with punches kicks to the body maybe a problem but I think that's going to open up some potential takedowns for Arnold Allen"
WIN vs Alex Caceres
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 65 of 141 46% 65 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 62 of 168 36% 62 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 17 of 30 56% 17 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 24 of 61 39% 24 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alex Caceres 0 23 of 68 33% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 65 of 141 46% 25 of 83 22 of 38 18 of 20 65 of 139 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 62 of 168 36% 25 of 110 25 of 44 12 of 14 62 of 168 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 17 of 30 56% 7 of 16 5 of 8 5 of 6 17 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 15 of 39 38% 5 of 23 5 of 10 5 of 6 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 23 of 44 52% 14 of 30 4 of 9 5 of 5 23 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 24 of 61 39% 8 of 40 12 of 16 4 of 5 24 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 25 of 67 37% 4 of 37 13 of 21 8 of 9 25 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alex Caceres 23 of 68 33% 12 of 47 8 of 18 3 of 3 23 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Angelo sees Giga as the much better striker and dangerous, but worries about the long layoff (1.5 years) and takedown defense issues from past losses. He notes that Caceres is a tough veteran with good scrambles. He picks Giga but is undecided on betting him, as the layoff and Caceres' toughness give him pause.

"this should be Giga all day long he's going to be the much better Striker the far more dangerous guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady acknowledges Giga Chikadze's long layoff and loss to Calvin Kattar but sees this as a good matchup for him. He notes that Alex Caceres doesn't use his wrestling and prefers to strike, which favors Giga. He believes Giga is the better striker with more power and tools, and expects him to win a kickboxing fight by decision.

decision
"I like eager here to win a kickboxing fight across 15 minutes"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Cody is tempted by the underdog line on Caceres but ultimately picks Chikadze. He notes that Caceres has a grappling advantage but may not be able to get takedowns against a high-level striker. Chikadze's striking is elite and he should win if he keeps it standing. Cody is not highly confident due to the 16-month layoff and grappling risk.

"super tempted by that Underdog money and I think it's very juicy but there's a couple other underdogs later on"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel picks Giga Chikadze, noting that this is a major step down in competition from Calvin Kattar. He believes Giga's power advantage is one-sided and that Caceres doesn't have the power to hurt him. He acknowledges concerns about Giga's layoff and surgeries, but thinks he cruises to a victory, possibly by knockout. He mentions that Caceres has a grappling edge but rarely uses takedowns.

"if I have to pick a winner I think Giga probably cruises to a victory here could even be a knockout"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Alex Caceres

James picks Alex Caceres as an underdog, citing Giga's long layoff, age (35), and the beating he took from Calvin Kattar. He believes Caceres can keep the striking close and has a massive grappling edge if the fight goes to the mat. He notes Giga gasses quickly after grappling exchanges, and Caceres could submit him or win via cardio advantage. He sees value at +210.

bet on Alex Caceres moneyline
"I've actually got a bell and Alex caceres here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

The host notes Giga Chikadze has been out for over a year and was exposed by Calvin Kattar's grappling. He believes Caceres is in his best form, with an unorthodox striking style and a dangerous Jiu-Jitsu game. The host expects Caceres to stifle Chikadze's early power, take the fight to the ground, and possibly find a submission. He calls the +210 odds 'crazy' and picks Caceres by decision.

"The fact that we can get Alexis air as close to plus 210 in this fight I think is crazy."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Caceres' path to victory is via grappling, but Chikadze's striking is superior. He mentions Caceres' loss to Yusuff as a blueprint for how this fight could go. Paul is not confident enough to bet Chikadze at the price.

"total agreement not don't really have anything to add to that one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Caceres

The MMA Guru picks Alex Caceres as an underdog over Giga Chikadze, envisioning Caceres finding a back take and rear-naked choke. He notes Caceres' momentum and two-fight winning streak, and Chikadze's struggles against well-rounded opponents who threaten takedowns. He believes Chikadze's best performances are against pure strikers, and Caceres' grappling threat will make Chikadze second-guess. He predicts a submission in round two via standing back take.

Submission via rear-naked choke in round 2 predicted
"I'm gonna go Alex casares ... my heart is telling me that he finds the back at some point and gets a really naked joke"
LOSS vs Calvin Kattar
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 1 144 of 402 35% 157 of 418 2 of 7 28% 1 1 3:42
Giga Chikadze 0 128 of 347 36% 129 of 348 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 4 of 7 57% 17 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:19
Giga Chikadze 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
2 Calvin Kattar 0 28 of 81 34% 28 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Giga Chikadze 0 38 of 99 38% 38 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Giga Chikadze 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Calvin Kattar 0 36 of 102 35% 36 of 102 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Giga Chikadze 0 28 of 70 40% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Calvin Kattar 1 51 of 125 40% 51 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Giga Chikadze 0 32 of 92 34% 32 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 144 of 402 35% 127 of 369 13 of 28 4 of 5 135 of 390 2 of 2 7 of 10
Giga Chikadze 128 of 347 36% 94 of 297 27 of 41 7 of 9 127 of 344 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
Giga Chikadze 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 28 of 81 34% 26 of 77 2 of 3 0 of 1 23 of 75 2 of 2 3 of 4
Giga Chikadze 38 of 99 38% 30 of 89 8 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 25 of 87 28% 22 of 78 3 of 9 0 of 0 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 22 of 67 32% 18 of 61 1 of 2 3 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Calvin Kattar 36 of 102 35% 32 of 94 3 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 28 of 70 40% 20 of 57 6 of 11 2 of 2 27 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0
5 Calvin Kattar 51 of 125 40% 45 of 115 5 of 9 1 of 1 48 of 121 0 of 0 3 of 4
Giga Chikadze 32 of 92 34% 22 of 76 10 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Angelo picks Chikadze as the safe pick, citing his phenomenal striking, kicks, and range management. He notes Kattar is a live underdog with excellent boxing and a wrestling background that could pose problems if he pressures. He mentions possibly sprinkling a bet on Kattar.

May sprinkle a bet on Kattar as underdog.
"geek is the pick but that's a safe pick calvin qatar is very live here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady admits he has been a Giga Chikadze hater but acknowledges Giga's improvements, especially his cardio in the Omar Morales fight. He notes Giga has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in the past, while Calvin Kattar has a steel chin and absorbs strikes. Brady expects Giga to win the first three rounds and take a decision, but is hesitant due to the five-round distance and Kattar's durability. He does not like the moneyline at -233 and would not bet it.

"I'm going to say giga chicago does win this fight i'm going to say he does win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Cody picks Giga Chikadze, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to dictate range with kicks. He notes Kattar struggles against longer opponents and that Giga's cardio looked solid in recent fights. He worries about Giga's takedown defense but doubts Kattar will wrestle. He suggests betting Kattar live after the second or third round if he survives the early onslaught.

Consider hedging on Kattar after round 2 or 3 if he survives
"as far as striker versus striker goes gotta go with the better striker better striker is giga just don't love the price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win and be the first to finish Calvin Kattar via strikes. He argues that Kattar is a one-dimensional boxer with a negative strike differential, and that Giga's diverse striking—especially body kicks and head kicks—will be too much. He notes Giga has improved his cardio and grappling, citing his anaconda attempt on Barboza and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Levi acknowledges Kattar's toughness and right hand but believes Giga's precision and power will prevail. He placed 5 units on Giga at -215.

5 units at -215
"I think giga chikazi is going to be the first man in mma history to finish calvin kater via strikes and i think he's going to open a lot of eyes so yeah give me giga chikazi i put five …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host believes Giga Chikadze's kick-heavy game plan will be the key to victory, targeting Calvin Kattar's legs which have historically been a weakness. He notes that Kattar is the better technical boxer, but Chikadze's diverse kicking attacks (leg, body, head) and ability to switch targets will slow Kattar down. The host is confident Chikadze can implement this strategy effectively, though he acknowledges the fight could go the distance if Kattar absorbs the kicks and keeps moving forward. He ultimately picks Chikadze by decision, but also considers an inside-the-distance finish possible.

Decision prop at +325, over 2.5 rounds at -135 mentioned as possible bets.
"i'll go to kaze... i'm stuck between decision and inside the distance honestly... i'm gonna go chicago just staying methodical staying cerebral as well and just staying on the outside letting those leg kicks go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Paul leans toward Giga Chikadze as the better striker, noting that if the fight stays at kicking range, Kattar will get torn up. He acknowledges Kattar's boxing and pressure but believes Giga's kicks and range control are decisive. He mentions the line is close to accurate but doesn't love the -235 price. He suggests Kattar might have a path via wrestling, but considers it unlikely.

"if this fight takes place at kicking range uh you got to imagine that calvin kater is going to get torn up completely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze to win by decision, citing Chikadze's superior kicking game and Kattar's well-known vulnerability to leg kicks, as exposed by Renato Moicano. He notes that Kattar is a slow starter who struggles with kicks, and coming off a year-long layoff after taking massive damage against Max Holloway, he expects Kattar to be even more hesitant early. Chikadze's activity (three fights in the past year) and improved takedown defense are also factors, as Kattar is unlikely to wrestle. However, he acknowledges Kattar is a good underdog and could pull off an upset if he survives the early kicking onslaught.

Kattar is a good underdog at nearly 2-to-1 odds; Chikadze is a 2-to-1 favorite. Prediction: Chikadze by decision (49-46).
"i'm gonna go with the gigachicken but don't be surprised if qatar gets the upset man"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
TKO (punches) R3 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 60 of 117 51% 70 of 128 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 21 of 27 77% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 33 of 95 34% 15 of 70 10 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 60 of 117 51% 31 of 80 16 of 22 13 of 15 56 of 113 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 10 of 26 38% 4 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 17 of 43 39% 6 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 19 of 56 33% 8 of 41 6 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 22 of 47 46% 10 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 4 of 13 30% 3 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 21 of 27 77% 15 of 20 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
TKO (body kick and punches) R1 1:03 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Cub Swanson 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 12 of 18 66% 9 of 14 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Cub Swanson 4 of 6 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 5 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady picks Giga Chikadze to win a close decision, but he is hesitant and hates the line. He acknowledges Chikadze's improvements, especially in takedown defense and striking output, as seen in the Morales fight. However, he notes that Swanson is durable and on a roll, and that Chikadze has been taken down in the past. Brady thinks the line should be closer and that Swanson could be live if he wrestles more, but he ultimately goes with Chikadze's flashier strikes.

"i'm going to take ciacatse to win by a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Cody sees Cub Swanson as a live underdog with many variables in his favor: savvy veteran experience, ground game advantage, and a history of performing well as an underdog. He notes that Swanson has a BJJ black belt and wrestling advantage, and that Giga has not faced a grappler who actually uses their ground game. However, he is concerned that Giga is tall for the division and a tricky striker, and that Swanson needs to use his wrestling to win. He labels this a 'dogger pass' situation and mentions DraftKings still has +160 available.

dogger pass (betting recommendation)
"for our last show in the studio i'll label this one a dogger pass dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win, emphasizing that Chikadze is a superior striker with better range and footwork. He believes Cub Swanson's style of swinging big hooks plays into Chikadze's straight shots down the middle. Levi also notes that Swanson's recent win over Pineda is overrated and that Chikadze's cardio held up in his last fight.

"i'm gonna go with giga to land the harder shots the more impactful shots and i think he's gonna announce himself as a contender at 145 pounds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host picks Giga Chikadze by decision, citing his striking advantage and reach. He expects Giga to fight safe and outpoint Swanson, who may look for takedowns. He notes that Swanson is a veteran but believes Giga's kicking game will be too much.

Giga Chikadze by decision at +170
"I like giga here it's crazy that the line is continuing to move towards the cub swanson side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not have a strong lean on this fight. He notes that Giga has been given favorable matchups and that Swanson has the ground game advantage, but he is not confident enough to make a pick. He mentions that the action is coming in on Swanson and that he can understand why, but he doesn't commit to a side.

"yeah not a great lean either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze over Cub Swanson, citing Chikadze's size advantage, reach, and improving MMA skills. He notes that Swanson is a natural bantamweight and took damage in his last fight against Daniel Pineda. He predicts Chikadze will chop at Swanson's legs and jab his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision.

"i'm gonna pick giga chickety to shop at those legs land good shots and just have cubs cub swanson limping around for the entire fight"
Edson Barboza - Fight History
LOSS vs Jalin Turner
KO R1 2:24 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 10 of 20 50% 10 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Jalin Turner 2 39 of 66 59% 43 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 10 of 20 50% 4 of 14 4 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jalin Turner 39 of 66 59% 29 of 55 8 of 9 2 of 2 33 of 53 5 of 10 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Angelo picks Jalin Turner despite concerns about his mental state after retiring following a couple of losses. He acknowledges Turner's advantages in height, range, and striking, and believes he is the better fighter at this stage. However, he questions whether Turner returned for the right reasons or just for a paycheck. Angelo ultimately trusts that Turner is focused and will win, but expresses hesitation.

"I'm gonna pick Jaylen Turner here because at this point in their careers, I think he's the better fighter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Big Brady picks Jalin Turner, citing his dangerous striking and 100% finish rate. He believes Barboza is washed and lacks durability, and that Turner will keep the fight standing. He expects Turner to win by first-round knockout, though he questions Turner's mentality.

Turner by first round knockout
"I'm going to take Jaylen Turner to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Cody picks Turner, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes that Turner has knocked down top lightweights and has a significant reach advantage. He believes Barboza is past his prime and that Turner will finish him early. He is confident despite Turner's recent loss and retirement talk.

"The reason I end up locking in Turner is more so you're you're right. His last fight against Jakar, he goes through the motions."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, citing Turner's fight-ending power and Barboza's age and recent decline. He notes that Barboza has looked hesitant and unable to pull the trigger, while Turner has more instantaneous power. However, Connor is concerned about Turner's mental state after his last performance and retirement talk.

Turner by KO
"I think I have to take Turner honestly, which I can't pick Jaylen Turner after that last performance and not, especially not with all the additional context."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)

Daniel is undecided, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation. He sees Turner's physical advantages and power but questions his heart and recent losses. Barboza's toughness and experience are assets, but his age (39) is a concern. He plans to make a pick on fight week.

"I'm not really sure. Next week, I'll have a pick for y'all on this one."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James thinks Jalin Turner will finish Edson Barboza early. He notes Barboza has looked washed and vulnerable in recent fights, often getting wobbled. He believes Turner's length, power, and viciousness will overwhelm Barboza. He acknowledges concerns about Turner's mental state after retirement but sees this as a favorable stylistic matchup.

Jalin Turner inside the distance
"Jaylen Turner inside the distance is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

The host believes Turner, returning from a short retirement, will be dialed in and take advantage of Barboza's deteriorating durability. He expects Turner to finish the fight within a round and a half.

finish within 1.5 rounds
"I think he's going to be more than dialed in to go out there and take advantage of the deteriorating durability of Edson Barbosa. Look for Turner to get this fight done within a round and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Paul picks Turner, noting his size and power advantage. He believes Barboza is done and that Turner will overwhelm him. He mentions that Turner's only losses are to top competition and that he has the ability to finish early. He thinks Turner wins by TKO.

"I don't think Jaylen Turner makes it to the third round, but he's big, he's strong, he's got more than enough power."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

The Guru picks Jalin Turner to beat Edson Barboza, noting Barboza's decline and damage accumulation. He believes Turner's range and grappling will be key, and that Barboza cannot pull the trigger like before. The Guru predicts a first-round TKO finish.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Jaylen Turner getting this one done by TKO finish brutally in the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Jalin Turner hesitantly, noting that Turner has more instantaneous fight-ending power than Barboza. He acknowledges Barboza's age and recent performances where he couldn't pull the trigger. Zane is concerned about Turner's mental state but believes his power gives him the edge.

"I have to pick him because of that, but man, if this is a Anthony Smith situation, yeah, like it's miss fight against, uh, Dom Reyes, then like he won of Anthony Smith's like last four fights."
LOSS vs Drakkar Klose
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 71 of 120 59% 73 of 122 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:50
Drakkar Klose 0 53 of 102 51% 147 of 209 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 24 of 36 66% 26 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Drakkar Klose 0 15 of 29 51% 68 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
2 Edson Barboza 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
Drakkar Klose 0 25 of 44 56% 50 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:40
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 46 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Drakkar Klose 0 13 of 29 44% 29 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 71 of 120 59% 26 of 64 32 of 38 13 of 18 57 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 53 of 102 51% 35 of 78 6 of 9 12 of 15 43 of 89 10 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 24 of 36 66% 4 of 11 13 of 17 7 of 8 18 of 30 6 of 6 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 15 of 29 51% 8 of 18 1 of 3 6 of 8 13 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 18 of 38 47% 7 of 22 10 of 12 1 of 4 14 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 25 of 44 56% 19 of 37 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 36 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 46 63% 15 of 31 9 of 9 5 of 6 25 of 42 4 of 4 0 of 0
Drakkar Klose 13 of 29 44% 8 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo acknowledges both fighters are older but notes Barboza's striking, speed, and experience against top competition. He thinks Klose could wrestle but hasn't seen enough to suggest Barboza is washed. He leans Barboza but is not confident enough to bet on him.

"I'm going to lean Eden Barbosa here. I've seen that dude step up time and time and time again against some of the best that have ever done it."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Big Brady picks Edson Barboza to win by second-round knockout. He notes Barboza is moving back up to lightweight, which should help his durability. He worries about Barboza's chin but thinks Klose doesn't have much power, with only two knockdowns in the UFC. He believes Barboza is the better striker and will knock out Klose, as Klose's path to victory is to sell out for grappling. He also mentions Klose's questionable durability and poor performance against Silva.

Barboza by KO, round 2
"I think Barbosa is the better striker and I think he knocks out Jakar Close. I think he's going to win this fight by second round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The host considers Klose one of the most underrated lightweights. He expects Klose to avoid Barboza's early finishing attempts, clinch him against the cage, wear him down, and grind out a decision win on the mat.

"I believe Close is one of the more underrated lightweights on the roster and I think he'll showcase it once again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Drakkar Klose

The Guru picks Drakkar Klose to win by decision, 29-28. He cannot trust Edson Barboza at this point in his career, citing Barboza's long layoff, injuries, and move back up to lightweight. The Guru notes that Barboza took a lot of damage in his last fight against Lerone Murphy and that Klose will grapple and use his physicality. He believes Klose can execute a 'tepid version' of the recipe to beat Barboza and win a decision, though Barboza may have moments of hurting Klose.

Decision win 29-28; Klose wins by decision
"I'm going to go with Dakar Close getting this one done. Decision win 2928."
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Sodiq Yusuff
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 48–46, 48–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 178 of 351 50% 206 of 397 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:56
Sodiq Yusuff 1 164 of 324 50% 178 of 347 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 42 of 80 52% 55 of 103 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:15
Sodiq Yusuff 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 42 of 79 53% 43 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Sodiq Yusuff 0 31 of 65 47% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 29 of 58 50% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 1 32 of 68 47% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
4 Edson Barboza 0 35 of 79 44% 39 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
Sodiq Yusuff 0 47 of 90 52% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
5 Edson Barboza 0 30 of 55 54% 40 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sodiq Yusuff 0 41 of 76 53% 41 of 77 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 178 of 351 50% 126 of 284 14 of 20 38 of 47 148 of 311 15 of 18 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 164 of 324 50% 71 of 204 89 of 112 4 of 8 134 of 290 25 of 27 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 42 of 80 52% 39 of 77 3 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 54 4 of 4 15 of 22
Sodiq Yusuff 13 of 25 52% 8 of 19 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 42 of 79 53% 24 of 56 3 of 6 15 of 17 34 of 69 8 of 10 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 31 of 65 47% 7 of 31 23 of 31 1 of 3 25 of 57 6 of 8 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 29 of 58 50% 17 of 42 5 of 7 7 of 9 29 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 32 of 68 47% 14 of 44 16 of 20 2 of 4 27 of 61 0 of 0 5 of 7
4 Edson Barboza 35 of 79 44% 24 of 64 1 of 2 10 of 13 35 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 47 of 90 52% 24 of 63 22 of 26 1 of 1 42 of 85 5 of 5 0 of 0
5 Edson Barboza 30 of 55 54% 22 of 45 2 of 2 6 of 8 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sodiq Yusuff 41 of 76 53% 18 of 47 23 of 29 0 of 0 28 of 63 13 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Angelo sees this as a razor-thin striking match where youth vs experience is the key factor. He believes Sodiq's speed and youth will give him a slight edge over the 37-year-old Barboza, who is still technical but may have slowed. He notes that if it were a well-rounded MMA fight he'd lean experience, but as a striking match he favors the younger fighter. He plans to just watch rather than bet, calling it even money.

"I'm going to go with sadique YF to be just a little faster just a hair ahead and I think that's going to matter"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

Big Brady picks Sodiq Yusuff to win by KO in the third round. He notes that Edson Barboza is 37 years old and cutting to featherweight, which is taxing. He worries about Barboza's durability and cardio in a five-round fight, while Yusuff is younger and has power. He expects Yusuff to finish late as Barboza fades.

Yusuff by KO in round 3
"I think it's a late finish here for Yousef third fourth or fifth I'm going to say Yousef does officially knock him out I'll say third round there"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza, emphasizing his consistent high-level competition and ability to still perform at an elite level. He highlights Barboza's leg kicks, left hook, and durability, noting that he has never slowed down despite many wars. Cody questions Yusuff's durability and wrestling ability to get Barboza down, and believes Barboza's experience and power will prevail.

"I gotta go dogger pass in this Main Event"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sodiq Yusuff

The host picks Sodiq Yusuff but is hesitant due to the long layoff and herniated disc issues. He notes Yusuff's power and patience, expecting him to land a big shot as Barboza slows down with age. However, he dislikes the minus 170-180 price and prefers to pass on betting. He predicts Yusuff by knockout.

"give me Yousef and Yousef by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza as the underdog, citing his elite striking, durability, and experience against top competition. He notes Barboza's ability to land big shots and his consistent performance despite age. Paul is concerned about Yusuff's durability and lack of high-level wins, and believes Barboza's volume and power will be too much.

Bet Edson Barboza at +142
"I just bet Edson Barboza while you were talking cuz I was just like I had a one uh one plus 142"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru leans towards Edson Barboza over Sodiq Yusuff, calling it a close 50/50 fight. He cites Barboza's momentum, size advantage (4-inch reach, taller), and experience in main events. He questions Yusuff's chin, noting he got wobbled by Arnold Allen, and his long layoff due to spinal surgery. He also thinks Yusuff's win over Alex Caceres was mostly low kicks, which won't work against Barboza. However, he expresses frustration that underdogs often win in nonsensical ways, showing low confidence.

"I'll go Ed some baroza over sadique yusf just think Edson babos has got a bit of momentum right now"
KO (knee) R1 2:37 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 1 21 of 33 63% 21 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Billy Quarantillo 0 19 of 42 45% 20 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 21 of 33 63% 13 of 25 5 of 5 3 of 3 19 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Billy Quarantillo 19 of 42 45% 16 of 38 1 of 2 2 of 2 18 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Angelo picks Billy Quarantillo, but emphasizes he needs to wrestle to win. He notes Barboza is the more technical striker and that Quarantillo cannot let Barboza settle into a striking pace. He references Barboza's win over Shane Burgos as a cautionary tale. He is not betting yet, calling Barboza 'super live'.

"Billy Q's gonna be the pick here I'm gonna need him to wrestle so that Edson isn't comfortable striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Big Brady picks Billy Quarantillo to win by late second-round knockout. He notes Barboza's age (37) and recent decline, while Quarantillo is durable and has high volume and pressure. He expects Barboza to look good early but fade, allowing Quarantillo to drown him with pace and power. He is not worried about Barboza's early knockout power.

late second round knockout
"I think billy gets him out of there in that second or third round just drowning with that volume"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Cody sees this as a classic case of Barboza starting hot and Quarantillo wearing him down. He notes Quarantillo's takedown accuracy is low (24%) but he shoots multiple times, and his superior cardio and ground game should take over in rounds 2 and 3. However, he's not confident pre-fight and prefers to bet Quarantillo live after round 1.

Live bet after round 1 if Quarantillo loses first round
"I'll go with Billy but minus 165 pre-flop kind of scares me off"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Connor picks Barboza, arguing that Quarantillo is too slow and too much of a slow starter to implement the pressure needed to beat Barboza. He notes that Barboza's early damage accumulation (body kicks, leg kicks) will prevent Quarantillo from building into the fight. Connor compares Quarantillo unfavorably to Shane Burgos, whom Barboza destroyed, and believes Barboza's thudding shots will land on Quarantillo's entire body in the first round.

Connor calls Barboza a 'very live dog' at plus money, implying value but not a specific bet.
"I'm going to pick Edson Barboza... I think Quarantillo is just too much too slow and too much of a slow starter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Quarantillo's cardio and forward pressure will be the difference. Barboza has takedown defense issues and fades late. Quarantillo can survive early striking onslaughts and take over in later rounds with takedowns and ground-and-pound. Expect a finish in round 3 as Quarantillo's pace breaks Barboza.

Billy Quarantillo wins inside the distance; round 3 TKO prop
"I fully expect the cardio of Billy Quarantillo to be the Difference Maker in this matchup and as long as he doesn't get put out early he should be able to take over later and eventually get that finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Quarantillo is hittable early but wears opponents down. He highlights Barboza's layoff and age (37) but acknowledges Barboza's first-round explosiveness. He thinks Quarantillo's wrestling may not be as good as previous Barboza opponents, but his volume and durability should carry him.

"I would rather take an even money play on Billy after he drops the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, emphasizing his well-rounded game, volume striking (7.88 strikes per minute), and grappling. He believes Quarantillo will close the distance, make it a war, and potentially finish Barboza, who is 37 and cutting to featherweight. He notes Barboza's power and experience but thinks Quarantillo's freshness and pressure will be key.

Quarantillo wins by finish or decision; potential finish of Barboza
"I am taking Billy Q to get the job done here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Billy Quarantillo

Zane picks Quarantillo, believing his relentless pressure and willingness to walk through fire will overwhelm Barboza. He notes that Barboza has historically struggled against pressure fighters who stay on him, and Quarantillo's madman mentality and one-size-fits-all aggression should be effective. Zane acknowledges Quarantillo is slower and less technical than previous Barboza opponents but thinks his psychological edge and constant forward movement will carry the day.

Barboza opened +130, now +140; Quarantillo opened -140/-145, now -160 to -190. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm going to stick with my Quarantillo pick."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 16 of 37 43% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 1 34 of 47 72% 182 of 209 4 of 4 100% 0 0 11:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 19 57% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 1 14 of 18 77% 47 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:48
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 7 of 9 77% 78 of 83 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:41
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 2 of 14 14% 8 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Edson Barboza 0 13 of 20 65% 57 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 16 of 37 43% 3 of 17 6 of 12 7 of 8 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 34 of 47 72% 28 of 40 4 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 25 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 19 57% 2 of 5 4 of 8 5 of 6 11 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 14 of 18 77% 10 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 0 7 of 7
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 7 of 9 77% 6 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 7
3 Bryce Mitchell 2 of 14 14% 1 of 11 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1
Edson Barboza 13 of 20 65% 12 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 15
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
One will rarely ever find a more perfect example of a striker vs. grappler battle, when the highlight-reel aficionado Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC) squares off with unbeaten submission artist Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC). Referee Mark Smith is on the call for this intriguing matchup at 145 pounds, and the men do not bothering to touch ‘em up before engaging. Mitchell throws a low kick, and Barboza is right there to return fire with a much heavier kick. Barboza attacks with another leg kick, and he backs away when Mitchell walks him down. Barboza sits down an inside leg kick, and just a few strikes in, Mitchell’s lead leg is already changing color. Mitchell gives chase, walking through another low kick, and he circles away as Mitchell tries to corner him. Mitchell aims a single kick to the body, and Barboza strings together a couple punches and a thudding low kick. Mitchell tries to grab Barboza but is out of range. Barboza scoots out of the way, and as he backs off, he gets cracked by a sudden right hand that sets him down. Barboza shakes off the cobwebs as “Thug Nasty” bears down on him, and he scoops up his foe’s legs and sets him down to the mat. In Barboza’s guard, Mitchell softens up the body with short punches, and he postures up to stack Barboza up when Barboza looks to open his guard and get offensive with it. From very close range, Mitchell thumps down a pair of elbows, and he uses effective top pressure to keep Barboza stuck with his neck on the wall and his back on the mat. Body to head goes Mitchell as he works Barboza over with light but constant strikes. Barboza tightens his guard, only to find an elbow zooming at his face, and he takes it flush and keeps absorbing punishment from below. Mitchell looks to sit up and drop down heavier blows, and as he does, the Brazilian kicks off and explodes back to his feet. Keeping a safe range, and hopping out of the way of a takedown entry from Mitchell, Barboza jumps around and scores a big leg kick. Missing with a spinning back kick, Barboza then chases after his man and gets off a right hand right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
The featherweights are quick to get after it to start the second stanza, and Barboza blasts Mitchell’s inside calf. Although he gets a couple off, he leaves his leg out a little too long and has it snagged mid-air. From there, Mitchell hits a quick double, setting the Brazilian flat on his back on the open mat. Barboza keeps his guard tightly closed, and Mitchell does not mind, as he racks up control time and has his ground strike totals add up. Mitchell sits up every so often to elbow Barboza in the face, and then flattens him back down and punches him in the side. One such elbow slashes Barboza’s left eyebrow open, and it begins to bleed instantly. Barboza scoots his way to the fence, but Mitchell will not let him up. Smith calls for them to work, and Mitchell obliges with a powerful elbow from on top. Barboza tries to push off and scramble, but the smothering top control of the Arkansan has him nullifying Barboza. When Mitchell attempts to pass to mount, Barboza is able to buck him of momentarily. Barboza looks to stand up with the fence behind him, and as he does, Mitchell drags him right back down from behind. Barboza recovers position to get his guard back, but “Thug Nasty” is nasty with his ground-and-pound as he batters Barboza and slides over to three-quarter mount. Mitchell clubs Barboza with several right hands to the bloodied eye, and a small pool of crimson forms beneath Barboza’s head. Mitchell settles for half guard, where he pounds on Barboza until the last five seconds of the round. Barboza manages to kick Mitchell off again, and Mitchell lords over him until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
The last round begins as Barboza appears to have a fire lit under his backside from his corner. Instead of throwing kicks, Barboza starts swinging heavy hands. Mitchell goes up high with a kick, and his foot bumps into Barboza’s shoulder and Mitchell falls to his back. Barboza does not oblige climbing into his guard, and he lets Mitchell stand up so he can slug it out with him. Barboza ducks a jumping switch kick, and he throws a right hand that Mitchell ducks perfectly. “Thug Nasty” nails a double, putting Barboza down to the canvas far away from the cage wall. Barboza closes up the guard, and Mitchell is happy as a clam in this position as this keeps him safe from any power strikes that come at him. In an effort to change things up, Barboza sets up a triangle choke from his high guard, and Mitchell lifts him in the air and slams him in the mat to break the leg grip. Mitchell comfortably lowers himself back in the guard, with sporadic punches on the bloody eye of his foe, until he stands up and stacks Barboza up. Barboza tries to kick off the hips, but he does not have the power to get Mitchell off of him any longer. Barboza scrambles and turns to set up a leg lock, but when this fails, Mitchell secures three-quarter mount with Barboza on his side. Mitchell begins to let a series of left hands go as Barboza cannot block his face, so the Brazilian twists and yanks his arm free but continues to get pounded by Mitchell. “Thug Nasty” starts to make things nasty again as he moves to half guard and starts raining down elbows. A few more strikes from the undefeated fighter put a stamp in this performance, and he will likely keep that 0 and put himself in line for big opportunities in the near future.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (30-26 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Edson Barboza via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-26, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2022 (8 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but admits he doesn't love the pick and will root for Barboza. He notes that Mitchell's only path is takedowns and control, and that Barboza has 78% takedown defense. However, he compares it to Khabib vs Barboza where Khabib had success with relentless takedowns. He thinks Mitchell's grappling is good enough to win a decision.

"i'm gonna pick bryce here i don't love the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell to win, likely by submission in the third round. He notes that Mitchell's relentless takedown game and top control will be key, as Barboza has historically struggled against wrestlers like Khabib and Kevin Lee. Brady acknowledges Barboza's striking advantage but believes Mitchell will neutralize it by taking him down repeatedly. He mentions that Barboza is 36 and may not keep up with Mitchell's pace. Brady also notes that Mitchell has shown improvement in his grappling, as seen in his wins over Andre Fili and Charles Rosa.

Mitchell by submission in round 3
"i'm gonna take him to win by i'm going to say submission actually in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody believes Mitchell has the exact style that causes Barboza problems: relentless pressure, wrestling, and grinding. He references the Amir Albazi fight as a template for how to beat Barboza by taking him down and controlling him. Cody acknowledges the striking disparity but trusts Mitchell's wrestling and strength to get the takedowns and avoid Barboza's power.

"i think bryce mitchell has the exact template the exact style that causes barbossa problems historically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi is confident in Bryce Mitchell, citing his relentless takedown style. He argues that Mitchell will shoot takedowns from the opening bell and keep shooting until he gets them down, unlike Makwan Amirkhani who backed up. He references Kevin Lee's blueprint of walking Barboza down and taking him down, and notes that Barboza struggled to get back up. He believes Mitchell's composure in the Felder fight (where he was reversed but stayed calm) bodes well. He predicts Mitchell will dominate via ground and pound and win a decision, possibly a submission.

"bryce mitchell is going to come out here take down edson barboza hold him down land some ground and pound possibly find a sub but most likely come out here and get this decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Barboza's striking, especially his leg kicks and power, is something Mitchell hasn't dealt with. Mitchell's path to victory is grappling, but Barboza has solid takedown defense and submission defense. The bigger cage helps Barboza maintain distance. Barboza can win by decision or even knockout if Mitchell gets reckless. The later the fight goes, the more Mitchell might land takedowns, but Barboza's experience should carry him.

"i do like barboza as a dog in the spot right i know he's had moments in the past where he's lost fights due to grappling i'm just not sure if bryce can replicate a kevin lee type of wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul is skeptical of Mitchell's competition, noting he has fought low-level opponents and struggled against the one wrestler he faced (Bobby Moffitt). He argues Barboza has fought elite competition and has underrated takedown defense, citing Khabib going 4-for-13. Paul sees this as a coin flip and prefers the plus money on Barboza, believing Mitchell could get lit up if he can't secure takedowns.

"plus 130 to me in a fight that again man i it could go either way yeah i'll roll the dog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell over Edson Barboza, trusting Mitchell's relentless grappling and tough chin. He acknowledges Barboza's KO power and speed, predicting Mitchell may get dropped early but will wear on Barboza with takedowns and pressure. He references Barboza's cardio issues and Mitchell's ability to set up takedowns with strikes. He predicts a third-round arm triangle submission after taking mount.

method: submission (arm triangle), round: 3
"i'm going to go the third round arm triangle sub from bryce mitchell"
LOSS vs Giga Chikadze
TKO (punches) R3 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Aug 28, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 33 of 95 34% 33 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 60 of 117 51% 70 of 128 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Giga Chikadze 0 19 of 56 33% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Giga Chikadze 0 4 of 13 30% 4 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 2 21 of 27 77% 31 of 38 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 33 of 95 34% 15 of 70 10 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 60 of 117 51% 31 of 80 16 of 22 13 of 15 56 of 113 0 of 0 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 10 of 26 38% 4 of 17 3 of 4 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 17 of 43 39% 6 of 27 5 of 8 6 of 8 17 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 19 of 56 33% 8 of 41 6 of 10 5 of 5 19 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 22 of 47 46% 10 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 6 22 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Giga Chikadze 4 of 13 30% 3 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 21 of 27 77% 15 of 20 5 of 6 1 of 1 17 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"
WIN vs Shane Burgos
KO (punches) R3 1:16 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Edson Barboza 0 80 of 180 44% 80 of 180 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 1 98 of 191 51% 98 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Edson Barboza 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Shane Burgos 0 41 of 83 49% 41 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Edson Barboza 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 0 39 of 82 47% 39 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Edson Barboza 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Shane Burgos 1 18 of 26 69% 18 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Edson Barboza 80 of 180 44% 41 of 131 24 of 33 15 of 16 80 of 179 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 98 of 191 51% 51 of 134 14 of 17 33 of 40 96 of 189 0 of 0 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Edson Barboza 33 of 79 41% 20 of 65 10 of 11 3 of 3 33 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 41 of 83 49% 19 of 55 5 of 5 17 of 23 41 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Edson Barboza 40 of 83 48% 19 of 55 14 of 21 7 of 7 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 39 of 82 47% 23 of 63 8 of 10 8 of 9 39 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Edson Barboza 7 of 18 38% 2 of 11 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shane Burgos 18 of 26 69% 9 of 16 1 of 2 8 of 8 16 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Burgos has a phenomenal chin, high volume (7.31 strikes/min), and excellent cardio. Barboza struggles with pressure and has low output. Burgos will pressure Barboza, land more strikes, and wear him down. I expect a late knockout in the third round as the damage accumulates.

by KO round 3
"I'm gonna take burgos to win here i'm gonna take him to win by um i'll say i'll say third round knockout for shane burgos"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Cody is a Burgos fan and picks him confidently. He argues that Barboza has taken too much damage over his career and is slowing down. Cody believes Burgos will walk Barboza down, out-volume him, and win a decision. He notes that Burgos is younger and his wrestling and ground game are improving.

"i'm obviously a burgos guy first and foremost like what he brings to the table these tigers shulman guys i mean universally across the board they're doing some excellent stuff"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Daniel Levi picks Shane Burgos, emphasizing his high work rate, forward pressure, and durability. He notes that Barboza fades in later rounds and has been outworked by pressure fighters like Dan Ige. Levi thinks Burgos's chin can hold up to Barboza's early power, and that his constant pressure will break Barboza. He predicts a 29-27 decision or late TKO for Burgos.

mentions Burgos's underrated kicks and Barboza's chin issues
"i got to go with burgos here because of the pressure the output and the non-stop forward pressure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The host picks Burgos with relatively high confidence after watching tape. He notes Burgos's pressure and forward movement will trouble Barboza, who struggles when backed up. He thinks Burgos has better volume and versatility, and that Barboza's leg kicks are a concern but Burgos can eat them. He predicts a decision win for Burgos.

Burgos by decision
"i'll go burgos and i'll go with burgers by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

Paul picks Burgos, noting that Barboza is past his prime and has taken a lot of damage. He believes Burgos will out-volume Barboza and win a decision. Paul mentions that Barboza's chin is questionable and he slows down in later rounds. He expects a close first round, then Burgos pulling away.

"the pick would be burgos but it's like you know this is an all-action fight between two strikers"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Shane Burgos

The MMA Guru picks Shane Burgos over Edson Barboza, citing Burgos's youth, reach advantage, and excellent chin. He believes Barboza will win the first round but slow down, allowing Burgos to take over in the second and third. He predicts a 29-27 decision for Burgos and suggests betting on a draw as a prop.

Bet on a draw (prop bet mentioned)
"i'm going with hurricane shane burgos"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo picks Barboza, citing his leg kicks as the difference, veteran savvy, and more tools (jiu-jitsu, experience). He notes Chikadze is the future but hasn't faced leg kicks. He has Barboza in his DraftKings lineup at 8200 and calls the fight razor thin.

Angelo likes the less more on monkey knife fight.
"my pick is honestly edson barboza i think the leg kicks are the difference here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Cody picks Barboza but is hesitant, noting Barboza's age (35) and the risk that Giga could have a breakout performance. He values Barboza's experience and durability, having faced top competition, while Giga's resume is softer. Cody is worried about Giga's cardio after seeing him slow in round three against Jamall Emmers, and thinks Barboza's volume and wrestling advantage could be key if he survives the early danger. He already bet Barboza at -110 and says he won't have high investment.

already bet Edson Barboza at -110; won't have highest investment
"I already bet edson barbos so I got him at 110 minus 115 is fine"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Jacob picks Chikadze, calling him an assassin who is on another level. He notes Chikadze is never in trouble and controls distance. He got Chikadze at +100 and has him in his lineup for five rounds, expecting a war. He also placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.

Jacob got Chikadze at +100; he placed a half-unit bet on Chikadze in the third round.
"i actually got giga for plus 100 when i saw plus 100"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Edson Barboza

Lock leans slightly to Barboza, citing his volume and pace advantage over Giga. He believes Barboza's durability at 145 has held up and that Giga's cardio issues will be exposed in a five-round fight. Lock expects Barboza to get a finish in the later rounds, specifically liking the under 4.5 rounds and Barboza by KO at +270. He notes Giga's power is dangerous early but thinks Barboza's experience and activity will be the difference.

under 4.5 rounds -130, Barboza by KO +270, Barboza round 3 +1100, round 4 +1450, round 5 +2075
"I ever so slightly lean on the barboza side here i think that his volume is ultimately going to catch up to giga and i think that giga will start to slow down the later that this fight goes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 25, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul picks Barboza, citing Barboza's higher striking volume and Giga's cardio issues seen in the Emmers fight. He notes Barboza's wrestling advantage and thinks if Barboza gets through the first two rounds, he'll be even stronger. Paul is scared away from Giga by his third-round fade against Emmers. He also mentions the line moving toward Barboza but remains confident.

"if edson gets out of the first two rounds in this fight i like him even more so i'm in on edson barbosa"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The Guru picks Edson Barboza over Giga Chikadze, citing Barboza's superior striking, experience in main events, and proven cardio at featherweight. He notes that Chikadze has close split decisions against Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis, which are red flags. The Guru expects Barboza to chop Chikadze's legs with calf kicks and win a decision, possibly 4 rounds to 1. He also mentions Barboza's takedown option as a potential factor.

Barboza by decision, calf kicks to be a factor
"i think edson barboza is a way better striker way more experience under the big lights he's been in main events before"