UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 3"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 2"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ignacio Bahamondes
5.99 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.07 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Roosevelt Roberts
2.84 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.1 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
1.18 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Ignacio Bahamondes
Moneyline
Caesars +145
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
BetMGM +2000
Decision
DraftKings +330
Roosevelt Roberts
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
BetMGM +350
Decision
FanDuel +260
Ignacio Bahamondes - Fight History
LOSS vs Tofiq Musayev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 1 32 of 62 51% 46 of 83 0 of 1 0% 2 1 1:17
Tofiq Musayev 0 34 of 72 47% 93 of 167 3 of 5 60% 0 1 7:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 39 51% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tofiq Musayev 0 11 of 32 34% 20 of 42 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:38
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 1 9 of 16 56% 19 of 28 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:10
Tofiq Musayev 0 17 of 29 58% 44 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 3 of 7 42% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
Tofiq Musayev 0 6 of 11 54% 29 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 32 of 62 51% 16 of 34 10 of 17 6 of 11 22 of 47 4 of 6 6 of 9
Tofiq Musayev 34 of 72 47% 27 of 59 5 of 8 2 of 5 12 of 34 2 of 5 20 of 33
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 39 51% 6 of 14 8 of 14 6 of 11 18 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tofiq Musayev 11 of 32 34% 6 of 21 3 of 6 2 of 5 8 of 25 2 of 5 1 of 2
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 9 of 16 56% 7 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 3 5 of 8
Tofiq Musayev 17 of 29 58% 15 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 26
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 3 of 7 42% 3 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
Tofiq Musayev 6 of 11 54% 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes despite acknowledging the danger of Terrance McKinney's chaotic pressure and wrestling. He notes that Bahamondes is a very good striker with length and volume, but his takedown offense is nonexistent and he can be outwrestled. Angelo believes Bahamondes' higher level of competition and striking advantage should carry him, but he is hesitant because McKinney could win by being chaotic and getting takedowns.

"Ignacio's going to be the pick because of how dangerous he is and just the higher level of competition that he's competed against."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via a 'club and sub' approach. He notes Musayev's poor grappling, having been submitted five times, but is concerned that Bahamondes has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Bahamondes will hurt Musayev on the feet and then submit him. He likes Bahamondes' size, volume, and sneaky power, and believes he is improving his wrestling.

Bahamondes by submission round 2
"I think he's going to hurt him on the feet, and then snatch up a neck... give me Bahamondes to get the job done."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tofiq Musayev

Cody thinks the line is too wide and Musayev has the grappling to exploit Bahamondes' takedown defense. He makes a small play on Musayev at plus money.

"Small play on Tofiq Musayev. The line's way too wide."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Connor picks Bahamondes but is hesitant, citing uncertainty about Bahamondes' current level due to recent wins over lower-level competition. He thinks Bahamondes has a danger edge with his size and will likely pressure Musayev, but he's not fully confident.

"I'm going to take him to, I think he's, uh, he might have just sort of the danger edge with his size."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel thinks Bahamondes will overcome early adversity from Musayev's explosive striking, then take over in later rounds due to his youth, reach, and Musayev being past his prime. He expects a decision or late finish.

"I think Ignacio overcomes an early scare and then picks apart Musayev to either a decision win or possibly gets a finish along the way."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host thinks the odds are too wide in favor of Bahamondes (-322) and that Musayev could make it competitive, but he passes because there is not enough recent footage on Musayev to confidently bet him. Bahamondes has weaknesses (poor striking defense, takedown susceptibility) but Musayev is an unknown quantity with only one recent fight. The host reluctantly passes on both sides.

"I'm going to reluctantly pass on Musaev because I don't know enough about him to be able to accurately predict or cap this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host believes Bahamondes' striking and counter-striking will be too much for Musayev, who is reckless. He expects Bahamondes to pick Musayev apart and eventually land a big shot for a finish. He notes the under 2.5 rounds is intriguing due to Musayev's recklessness and Bahamondes' finishing ability.

under 2.5 rounds at -145
"I'm expecting a finish in this matchup and I'm expecting it to be the Chilean fighter Ignasio Bahamundes who gets this fight done inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul favors Bahamondes, citing his height, volume, and cardio. He believes Musayev's low volume and lack of wrestling will be issues.

"Ignacio Bahamondes is the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, noting his crafty striking and ground game. He believes Bahamondes is a better version of Daniel Zellhuber and will outlast Musayev's explosive first round. He predicts Bahamondes will finish Musayev by TKO in the second or third round, drawing parallels to his performance against Manuel Torres.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think I'm going to take Ignashio Bahamandez to get this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Zane picks Bahamondes because he trusts Bahamondes can fight at a pace when needed, and Musayev hasn't shown that pace. He notes that Bahamondes' losses came against wrestlers, which Musayev is not. He also mentions that Musayev's style of fighting on the back foot may not work in the UFC.

"I'm going to take Bahamondez just because I know he can fight at a pace. When he needs to."
LOSS vs Rafael Fiziev
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafael Fiziev 0 62 of 113 54% 87 of 141 4 of 4 100% 0 0 1:43
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 50 of 147 34% 62 of 165 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafael Fiziev 0 17 of 25 68% 17 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafael Fiziev 0 15 of 28 53% 28 of 41 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:55
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
3 Rafael Fiziev 0 30 of 60 50% 42 of 75 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:48
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 17 of 57 29% 26 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafael Fiziev 62 of 113 54% 31 of 72 25 of 34 6 of 7 52 of 96 5 of 7 5 of 10
Ignacio Bahamondes 50 of 147 34% 23 of 108 13 of 17 14 of 22 47 of 139 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafael Fiziev 17 of 25 68% 4 of 10 9 of 10 4 of 5 17 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 13 of 46 28% 2 of 26 3 of 5 8 of 15 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafael Fiziev 15 of 28 53% 8 of 20 6 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 24 1 of 2 1 of 2
Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 44 45% 7 of 30 9 of 9 4 of 5 19 of 41 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafael Fiziev 30 of 60 50% 19 of 42 10 of 17 1 of 1 22 of 47 4 of 5 4 of 8
Ignacio Bahamondes 17 of 57 29% 14 of 52 1 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 52 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, striking, and multiple ways to win. He acknowledges that Fiziev is the better striker but thinks Bahamondes is on a run and has more finishing options. He notes that Fiziev may have slowed down after injuries and tough fights. He recommends exposure to both in multiple lineups.

Recommends exposure to both fighters in multiple lineups.
"Ignasio Bahamandez is going to be my pick. You probably want exposure to both of them if you have multiple lineups."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Big Brady picks Rafael Fiziev despite him being on a three-fight skid, noting that Fiziev's losses came against top competition (Gamrot, Gaethje twice) and one was on short notice. He believes Bahamondes is taking a step up in competition and that Fiziev's speed, power, and movement will cause problems early. Brady acknowledges Fiziev's cardio issues but thinks the fight goes to decision and that hometown judges will favor Fiziev in a close fight. He predicts a greasy, possibly controversial decision win for Fiziev.

fight goes the distance, hometown decision
"I'm going to go with Phys here. I'm going to go Faze to get the job done."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Connor picks Fiziev, agreeing with Zane that Bahamondes' reversion to pocket fighting against Turner is a bad sign against Fiziev. He notes that Bahamondes has lost to short, explosive strikers before and that Fiziev is a much more polished striker than Bahamondes' recent opponents. He believes Fiziev's technical edge and the fact that Bahamondes hasn't proven his new style against a serious range striker make Fiziev the clear pick.

"I have to pick Fiziv here coming off that gage fight. I just think, you know, he looked good. He looked great in that fight, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

The host is surprised Bahamondes is the slight favorite. He thinks Fiziev may have handpicked his opponent to perform in front of his hometown crowd. He expects Fiziev's speed advantage and wrestling to thwart Bahamondes' distance striking, leading to a big shot or control time for a decision win.

"Very surprised that Bahamundes finds himself as the slight favorite here cuz this is a spot where Fiziev was maybe able to handpick his opponent so that he can perform form in front of his hometown crowd. I think his …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his range and improved distance management. He believes Fiziev's size disadvantage and recent war with Justin Gaethje will be factors. He expects Bahamondes to pick Fiziev apart as the fight goes on, predicting a third-round finish.

Bahamondes wins by TKO in round 3
"I'm gonna go with Ignario Bahamandez over Ra Rafael Fizzv. I think the range and all of that is just going to be a bit much for Fizzv."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Rafael Fiziev

Zane picks Fiziev, noting that Fiziev looked great in his return against Gaethje despite losing, and that Bahamondes has struggled against shorter, better range strikers like Ludovic Klein and John McDessie. He points out that Bahamondes' instinct to sit in the pocket and trade hooks plays into Fiziev's strengths, and that Bahamondes' new rangy style hasn't been tested against a serious striker. He believes Fiziev's technical advantage will be decisive even if he tires.

"I'm totally taking Fiziv as well. I just wanted to raise the point that Fiziv with his own new fondness for fighting like off the back foot and from kicking range might once again run into some hiccups..."
WIN vs Jalin Turner
Submission R1 2:29 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 16 62% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 7 of 20 35% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Jalin Turner 0 10 of 16 62% 17 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 7
Jalin Turner 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 7 of 20 35% 4 of 16 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 7
Jalin Turner 10 of 16 62% 7 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 6 of 11 0 of 0 4 of 5
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Connor picks Turner because he sees a clear level gap: Bahamondes has never beaten a good UFC fighter and is a classic tall man who doesn't like fighting at distance, while Turner is a long-range striker with fast, straight shots. Connor notes that Bahamondes has poor defense and will struggle against Turner's reach and power. He also points out that Turner has fought much better competition and performed well in close fights.

Odds: Turner opened at -115, now +112; Bahamondes opened at +100, now -129. Connor is surprised by the line movement favoring Bahamondes.
"I do not think Bahamanda's has done anything to prove that he he would serve he would lose to all the guys who beat in Turner. Yeah. You know, absolutely. He'd lose more convincingly to most of them."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Lucrative James picks Turner as an underdog, citing Turner's early power and finishing ability. He thinks Turner will land big shots early and potentially finish, as Bahamondes is hittable. He notes Turner's cardio issues but believes he can win by stoppage or even decision if he hurts Bahamondes early. He admits he needs more tape study but leans Turner.

"I'm going to predict Jaylen Turner the reason is because of what I said I think he's definitely going to win round one I think he's going to hurt ignasio early"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jalin Turner

Zane picks Turner, agreeing with Connor that Bahamondes is not a good range fighter and has poor defense. He notes that Turner is a nuclear puncher who is much faster and has a flexible striking game. Zane acknowledges Turner's occasional mental lapses but believes Bahamondes lacks the talent to exploit them. He is surprised by the betting line favoring Bahamondes.

Odds: Turner opened at -115, now +112; Bahamondes opened at +100, now -129. Zane is surprised by the line movement.
"I think much faster than Bahamanda's. Yeah. So I get the matchup as a as a sort of a visual gag. But I do not think Bahamanda's has done anything to prove that he he would serve he would lose …"
WIN vs Manuel Torres
TKO (punches) R1 4:02 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 43 46% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Manuel Torres 2 31 of 58 53% 36 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 43 46% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Manuel Torres 2 31 of 58 53% 36 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 43 46% 9 of 30 10 of 10 1 of 3 12 of 35 8 of 8 0 of 0
Manuel Torres 31 of 58 53% 25 of 46 3 of 4 3 of 8 11 of 25 4 of 4 16 of 29
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 43 46% 9 of 30 10 of 10 1 of 3 12 of 35 8 of 8 0 of 0
Manuel Torres 31 of 58 53% 25 of 46 3 of 4 3 of 8 11 of 25 4 of 4 16 of 29
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes for three reasons: his length advantage, higher level experience, and the fact that Manuel Torres pulled guard in his last fight, which won't work against Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes has good footwork and head movement, solid takedown defense, and came out aggressive in his last fight. However, he acknowledges Torres is dangerous and the fight could end early. He suggests a round under or 'fight doesn't go the distance' prop.

Suggests round under or 'fight does not go the distance' prop bets.
"I think I'm going to lean ignasio here for three reasons one his length... two he has more high level experience... three Manuel Torres pulled guard in his last fight we we're not picking guard pullers over here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady flipped from initially leaning Torres to picking Bahamondes as a dog. He notes Torres is a beast in the first round (14 of 15 wins in round 1) but has never been past round 1.5. Bahamondes has shown ability to go into later rounds and weather storms. He predicts Bahamondes will survive an early onslaught and break Torres in the second round via knockout.

second round knockout
"I think I'm going to go with bahamondes here as a dog... I think it's going to be aosi bahamondes getting the second round knockout here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel picks Ignacio Bahamondes, believing that if he survives the early storm, he will pick Torres apart with calf kicks, jabs, and spins. He notes Bahamondes' training with Khabib and Islam for grappling, and doubts Torres can maintain his high pace. He predicts a knockout for Bahamondes.

Bahamondes by KO
"I'm going ignasio Bonz to have the best performance of his career F like kid you crush the grapes now we drink the wine"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Fading the hype on Torres and going with the more experienced and technically better fighter in Bahamondes. He will touch up Torres, lean on his durability early, and then utilize superior technical striking to finish Torres in the second or third round.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to have to fade the hype training Tes here and with the more experienced and technically better fighter here and baham mundez who I believe will be able to touch up Torres"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manuel Torres

The MMA Guru picks Manuel Torres. He describes Torres as a physical freak with incredible strength, comparing him to a lightweight version of Dricus du Plessis. He notes Bahamondes has had mediocre performances against similar competition, including a loss to Ludovic Klein where he was controlled on the ground. He also points out that Bahamondes was wobbled by a shorter fighter with a shorter reach, and Torres has more power and range.

"I'm gonna go Manuel Torres you know there's a few performances in ignasio bahamondes his career where he's had a little bit of a stinker... I'm going to bet on what we've seen and I've seen Manuel Torres handle things …"
KO (head kick) R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 1 40 of 68 58% 40 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Christos Giagos 0 17 of 45 37% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 1 40 of 68 58% 40 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Christos Giagos 0 17 of 45 37% 18 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 40 of 68 58% 26 of 53 8 of 9 6 of 6 33 of 56 7 of 12 0 of 0
Christos Giagos 17 of 45 37% 7 of 31 3 of 7 7 of 7 16 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 40 of 68 58% 26 of 53 8 of 9 6 of 6 33 of 56 7 of 12 0 of 0
Christos Giagos 17 of 45 37% 7 of 31 3 of 7 7 of 7 16 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo leans Ignacio Bahamondes because he believes Bahamondes' last loss was more about how good Ludovit Klein is rather than Bahamondes being bad. He acknowledges that Bahamondes has good takedown defense (85%) but that it failed in his last fight. He thinks Christos Giagos could win if he gets takedowns, but Angelo is on the Bahamondes side, though he admits he will be biting his nails over takedowns.

"I'm on the Bahamondes side... Ignacio is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission. He notes that Giagos will likely have early success with takedowns and wrestling, but will fade as the fight goes on due to poor cardio. Bahamondes will grow into the fight and finish Giagos in the second round.

win by second round submission
"give me bonus to win this fight I'll say second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody agrees, pointing to Giagos's pattern of fading after round 1, as seen in the Zellhuber fight. He notes Bahamondes's length and reach may make it hard for Giagos to land early, and that Bahamondes has never been knocked out. Cody thinks Bahamondes will take control as the fight goes on, and that Giagos's takedown threat diminishes as he tires.

live bet on Bahamondes in round 2
"I'm with you I think the longer that this fight plays out B mes will take control"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Ignacio Bahamondes, praising his stance switching, range, and opportunistic submissions. He dismisses Bahamondes' losses to Melsik Baghdasaryan and Ludovit Klein as forgivable, noting Klein's suspicious transformation. Vreeland sees Christos Giagos as an athletic journeyman who fades after the first round, lacking depth beyond spamming hooks. He expects Bahamondes to frustrate Giagos with range and dominate past round one, possibly by finish.

"I expect Ignacio Bahamondes to really frustrate Christos with his range and I don't know if it's gonna be a finish or not but I do expect dominance past round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes is a talented striker with nasty Muay Thai and improving grappling. Giagos has early finishing power but fades if he doesn't get the finish. Bahamondes can weather the early storm, then take over in later rounds with his striking and cardio. Expect a TKO in the second or third round.

Bahamondes round 3 TKO; hedge with Giagos round 1 KO at +1700
"I'm going to go baham mundez third round uh TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul is confident in Bahamondes, citing his length, chin, cardio, and striking. He notes Giagos is explosive but fades after 6-7 minutes, and that Bahamondes's takedown defense and ability to get up will neutralize Giagos's early wrestling. Paul expects Bahamondes to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly by TKO. He also suggests live betting Bahamondes if he loses the first round.

by TKO, under 2.5 rounds, live market on Bahamondes if he loses round 1
"baham mandz wins this fight... you play it right now on a parlay... or you just hit that baham Manz by TKO maybe that under two and a half"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host dismisses Giagos as a 'pensioner killer' with wins over older fighters like Ricky Glenn, Soroano, and Carlton Minus. He notes Bahamondes' lanky frame (6'2" at lightweight) and recent wins over Roosevelt Roberts, Ronu, and Trey Ogden. He predicts Bahamondes will sleep Giagos, ignoring technique and focusing on size advantage.

"I'm going to go with ignasio bahamondes over Christos kagos ... this bully is about to get [ __ ] slept"
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Font · Aug 05, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 43 of 139 30% 62 of 166 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 56 of 108 51% 94 of 151 3 of 5 60% 0 0 6:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 7 of 33 21% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:45
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 29 of 76 38% 35 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 19 of 41 46% 25 of 47 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:04
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 7 of 30 23% 11 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 17 of 33 51% 21 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 43 of 139 30% 29 of 114 9 of 16 5 of 9 41 of 133 2 of 6 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 56 of 108 51% 36 of 82 11 of 16 9 of 10 43 of 88 1 of 1 12 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 7 of 33 21% 5 of 26 1 of 3 1 of 4 7 of 31 0 of 2 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 20 of 34 58% 17 of 28 0 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 14
2 Ľudovít Klein 29 of 76 38% 21 of 68 5 of 5 3 of 3 28 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 19 of 41 46% 8 of 27 6 of 8 5 of 6 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 7 of 30 23% 3 of 20 3 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 27 1 of 3 0 of 0
Ignacio Bahamondes 17 of 33 51% 11 of 27 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 27 1 of 1 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo picks Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his massive size at lightweight, incredible volume, decent power, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Bahamondes uses his length well to keep distance and snatch submissions. He believes Klein is a technical striker but will struggle with Bahamondes's size and grappling, and may shoot sloppy takedowns that lead to a submission. Angelo thinks -200 is appropriate and expects Bahamondes to dominate.

"I love Ignacio in this fight I think the minus 200 odds are appropriate"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady is very high on Bahamondes, noting his size (6'3" at lightweight), volume, and improved takedown defense as seen against Roosevelt Roberts. He thinks Klein has stagnated and shown poor cardio and durability. He expects Bahamondes to keep the fight standing and outpoint Klein over 15 minutes, possibly by decision, with a sneaky submission chance.

Bahamondes by decision; potential submission
"I gotta go bahamona's here I mean like what is what is Klein's path to Victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume, height advantage (6'3" vs 5'7"), and youth. He notes Klein's low output and struggles against taller opponents. He expects Bahamondes to outland Klein significantly and win a decision, possibly with a late finish. He also likes the over 83.5 significant strikes prop for Bahamondes.

Bahamondes over 83.5 significant strikes
"Ignacio Baja manda's top ticket play... I think he beats up Klein"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel Levi is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, calling him his first bet of the night. He praises Bahamondes' striking, length (6'3" at lightweight), and durability, citing praise from Belal Muhammad. Levi notes that Klein is explosive but breaks when he's the nail, while Bahamondes has no quit. He expects Bahamondes to double Klein up on strikes and potentially finish him. Levi parlayed Bahamondes with Bobby Green to win 3.5 units at effective even money.

Parlayed Bahamondes with Bobby Green to win 3.5 units. No specific prop bet on Bahamondes alone.
"I parlayed Ignacio at minus 185 with Bobby green ... to win 3.5 units."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

James thinks Bahamondes is the better striker and more dangerous submission threat. He notes Klein can catch him but doesn't hit extremely hard. Bahamondes is improving and James expects him to break Klein late, similar to how Madge did.

"I think Bahamondes is going to win... I think he can probably break Ludovic late."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes can snipe from distance and rack up significant strikes, possibly finishing Klein. Klein may try grappling, but Bahamondes has good takedown defense and can work back to his feet. The Jai Herbert fight is a perfect example of what happens when Klein faces a distance striker, and Bahamondes is cleaner than Herbert. I like Bahamondes to win by decision.

"give me Baja mundes to win this by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 2, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Bahamondes' volume and size advantage. He is concerned about Klein's takedowns but believes Bahamondes will cruise to a decision victory. He also likes the over 83.5 significant strikes prop.

Bahamondes over 83.5 significant strikes
"I think Ignacio just beats him up a cruise significant strikes and it'll be a pretty easy decision victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 1, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host is high on Ignacio Bahamondes, calling him 'the truth' with phenomenal kickboxing and range. He notes Bahamondes has a 95% takedown defense and should keep the fight standing. He believes Bahamondes will outland Klein and possibly land a big kick. He acknowledges Klein has power but thinks Bahamondes' ceiling is much higher. He is comfortable with the line up to -260.

line opened -210, now -222; expects line to reach -240/-250
"Baja Mendes man he's the truth I'm really high on him"
WIN vs Trey Ogden
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 99 of 200 49% 99 of 200 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 42 of 109 38% 42 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 30 of 66 45% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 16 of 45 35% 16 of 45 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Ogden 0 17 of 42 40% 17 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 99 of 200 49% 28 of 88 30 of 65 41 of 47 99 of 200 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 42 of 109 38% 24 of 81 10 of 15 8 of 13 42 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 26 of 51 50% 7 of 19 4 of 15 15 of 17 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 9 of 22 40% 3 of 12 1 of 2 5 of 8 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 30 of 66 45% 9 of 33 11 of 20 10 of 13 30 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 16 of 45 35% 8 of 33 5 of 7 3 of 5 16 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 43 of 83 51% 12 of 36 15 of 30 16 of 17 43 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Ogden 17 of 42 40% 13 of 36 4 of 6 0 of 0 17 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Trey Ogden
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bahamondes (-345), Ogden (+285)

Round 1
Due to bout cancelations, matchup switcheroos and a bunch of other oddities, this fight set in the cage now is taking place at a pre-planned 160 pounds. After over a year off, Bahamondes (13-4, 2-1 UFC) wants to shake off any rust and handle Ogden (16-5, 1-1 UFC). The style matchup is intriguing, with all but one of Bahamondes’ career stoppages by knockout, while Ogden has never once performed a stoppage due to strikes. Referee Andrew Glenn is on call for this catchweight contest, and it opens up with no touch of gloves. Bahamondes starts with a low leg kick, and Ogden hops forward to stomp his foe’s knee. Ogden pursues an inside leg kick, and Bahamondes counters with a pair of punches. The Chilean fighter paws at him with at front kick and a jab, looking to establish his superior reach advantage. Ogden attacks his lead leg, and Bahamondes responds in kind. Bahamondes chips at the lead calf, allowing himself to be opened up to catch a left to the chin. Bahamondes rips a body kick, and he changes stances to line up a low kick. The pace is slow and very tit-for-tat, but Bahamondes appears to be landing with heavier leg kicks than his opponent. One in particular makes Ogden turn his leg into it, and he swats away a long jab and counters with a left. The stance switching from “La Jaula” frustrates his opponent and disrupts much of his offense, while setting up leg kicks from either leg. Ogden takes several more kicks to the inside and outside of his lead wheel, and he rolls with the brunt of a one-two. Ogden leans back but cannot block a right hand, and Bahamondes blasts him in the midsection with a kick. Ogden points to his elbow to say that he blocked it, and he gets stung with a left to follow. Ogden backs up into the fence and is nearly turned around from a leg kick, and Bahamondes chops at it indiscriminately. Bahamondes settles down to fire off another kick to the ribcage, and he darts back when Ogden punches him in the side. Ogden’s offense is limited to single blows, and Bahamondes is potshotting him from afar. They clash legs when kicking at one another, and Bahamondes spins with a back kick to the breadbasket. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes

Round 2
The second frame opens as the two meet directly in the center of the cage, and Bahamondes leads off with several punches and whiffs with a wheel kick. Bahamondes steps through to light up the body with a kick, and Ogden slides to the side to fire off a trio of punches and an open-handed slap. They trade low kicks, and Bahamondes lines up a solid kick to the body. Bahamondes connects with a clean one-two, beating Ogden to the punch in most of their exchanges. Ogden goes up high with a kick, and “La Jaula” blocks it with ease. Bahamondes outjabs his foe, and Ogden shoots in from a healthy distance and is stuffed. Bahamondes retreats and lines up a low kick and a long left hand, and Ogden loads up on a left hand to respond. Ogden attempts to check a leg kick, and Bahamondes digs a few punches to the body. Bahamondes reaches his man and gets out before getting countered, and he protects himself from a high kick. The jabs and straight punches to the body continue to come from Bahamondes, who leaps into a flying knee and bounces off his target. Ogden blocks a body kick as the crowd showers the two cautious strikers with boos. These seem to excite “Samurai Ghost” momentarily, who chases Bahamondes down and connects with a combination. Ogden swipes out with a left hand, and Bahamondes chops his leg down on the inside again. The action once again wanes, and the crowd is not slow to voice its disapproval. Bahamondes scores another body kick that Ogden motions did not connect, but it did slide under his elbow first. The two fighters trade jabs, and take turns with exchanges. Bahamondes kicks, Ogden responds, and Bahamondes continues. Bahamondes lands a pair of leg kicks on the inside, fires one off to the head, and the tepid round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes

Round 3
The final frame opens with Bahamondes taking the middle of the Octagon and spamming kicks to all targets. Ogden paws out a left hand, and it is a single strike answered by several from Bahamondes. Bahamondes hammers the body with a kick, and this time Ogden is not motioning anything, as that appeared to sting. Bahamondes reaches with a straight left hand, and does so a second time before working the lead leg with a hard kick. Bahamondes chains into a pair of body kick, where he switches stance to dig his shin on the underside of Ogden’s knee. The Chilean fighter constantly peppers Ogden with kicks, rarely aiming at the same spot twice in a row. A leg kick from his right leg is followed by one from his left to the head, and then his right foot pushes out with a front kick. Bahamondes continues his lumberjack routine of chopping down the tree that is Ogden, and he slaps Ogden in the face with his instep. Ogden is left guessing or flailing at the wind, with left hooks that are nearly a foot short of the mark or low kicks that have little on them. The audience starts lighting up their phones and waving around the lights, all while raining down a wall of boos. The pace does not change for the fighters, as Bahamondes is comfortable with his calm yet active approach. Ogden dings Bahamondes with a left, but it is one-and-done before Bahamondes scores three times from a distance. Bahamondes jabs the body and spins with a kick to the midsection, and he hops back when Ogden aims a right hand down towards the breadbasket. Bahamondes swings a check right hook when Ogden advances, but it does not slow “Samurai Ghost” from throwing a solid right. Bahamondes misses the mark with a spinning wheel kick, but a second spin in the form of a back kick lands on the ribs and pushes Ogden into the wall. Bahamondes spins with a back fist, a wheel kick and then fires an axe kick, and Ogden stands in front of him until the horn blares to end this lackluster match.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bahamondes (30-27 Bahamondes)

The Official Result
Ignacio Bahamondes def. Trey Ogden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Angelo is very confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his length, reach, surprising output, good power, footwork, and 95% takedown defense. He notes that Trey Ogden is stepping up on short notice and has had to cut weight twice in a few weeks, which is a disadvantage. He believes Ignacio will dominate with his striking and is one of his most confident picks on the card.

"this is Ignacio bahamandez all day long all day long"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady is confident in Ignacio Bahamondes, citing his improved takedown defense and striking advantage. He notes that Trey Ogden has poor takedown accuracy (15%) and struggled against Jordan Levitt. He believes Bahamondes will outclass Ogden on the feet and potentially finish him, but predicts a decision win. He mentions the line movement as a sign of confidence.

"I think bahamonus is going to show up here and I think Baja Monday's styles on Ogden across three rounds potentially finishes him along the way"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody agrees with Paul on Bahamondes. He notes Bahamondes' potential and size advantage, and that Ogden's wins have come against lower-level competition. Cody points out Ogden's poor takedown defense and low striking output. He thinks Bahamondes will use his reach and volume to dominate. Cody says he probably won't bet it due to the price but agrees it's a solid pick.

"I think biomondice is a rifle favorite he's my pick at minus 335"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Bahamondes. He notes that Ogden is a fighter who makes it hard for opponents to hit him, but Bahamondes will keep throwing.

"Yep. Trying to not have a fight with Bahamondas is in fact, seems like a very dangerous path."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Jacob also loves Ignacio, calling it one of his favorite plays on the card. He emphasizes Ignacio's jab and length, and notes that Trey Ogden marches forward with his head on the center line, making him vulnerable. He warns against Ignacio pulling guillotines, as that could put him on his back, but believes if he sticks to jabbing, he will dominate.

"this is one of my favorite plays on the on the card as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Bahamondes is all violence with high volume, using his height and reach to keep opponents at distance. He has 95% takedown defense and trains with Belal Muhammad to improve his grappling. Ogden is a BJJ black belt but may struggle with Bahamondes' constant pressure and output. I expect Bahamondes to land a knockout as Ogden gets desperate with takedowns.

"I think that baja mundas will be more than ready with his footwork and his counters whether it's with that knee or that uppercut to me Trey Ogden and maybe even find a Knockout in the spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul is high on Bahamondes, calling him potential top ticket material. He highlights Bahamondes' massive size for lightweight (6'3", 75" reach), excellent volume, and takedown defense. Paul notes Bahamondes' cardio and durability, and that he keeps improving. He criticizes Ogden's low output and poor wrestling, and believes Bahamondes will outwork him easily. Paul expects a dominant performance.

"ohamanas might be top ticket material I think he absolutely goes there and rolls him up"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by second-round submission via guillotine or d'arce choke. He highlights Bahamondes' good reactions to takedown attempts and his striking at range with front kicks and straight punches. He predicts Ogden will shoot a sloppy takedown in the second round after being worn down by leg kicks and body shots, allowing Bahamondes to latch on a guillotine against the cage.

second round submission, guillotine or d'arce choke
"I'm gonna go with Ignacio by hamandez with a guillotine or a dash choke"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Zane picks Bahamondes because Ogden is a negative fighter who withdraws, and Bahamondes is pathologically aggressive. He notes that trying to not have a fight with Bahamondes is dangerous.

"I got to pick Bahamondas here though."
WIN vs Rong Zhu
Submission (brabo choke) R3 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 48 of 129 37% 49 of 130 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:20
Rong Zhu 0 126 of 194 64% 133 of 204 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 9 of 17 52% 9 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Rong Zhu 0 42 of 66 63% 48 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:11
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 31 of 83 37% 31 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rong Zhu 0 60 of 97 61% 61 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 8 of 29 27% 9 of 30 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:14
Rong Zhu 0 24 of 31 77% 24 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 48 of 129 37% 34 of 114 9 of 10 5 of 5 46 of 126 1 of 2 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 126 of 194 64% 86 of 151 25 of 28 15 of 15 117 of 178 3 of 3 6 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 9 of 17 52% 6 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 3 8 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 1
Rong Zhu 42 of 66 63% 24 of 46 11 of 13 7 of 7 36 of 53 0 of 0 6 of 13
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 31 of 83 37% 20 of 71 9 of 10 2 of 2 30 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 60 of 97 61% 43 of 80 11 of 11 6 of 6 59 of 96 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 8 of 29 27% 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rong Zhu 24 of 31 77% 19 of 25 3 of 4 2 of 2 22 of 29 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Big Brady picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by decision. He praises Bahamondes' takedown defense shown against Roosevelt Roberts, where he stuffed 12 takedowns. He notes Bahamondes throws high volume (over 7.5 significant strikes per minute) and has a significant reach advantage. He criticizes Rong Zhu's striking, pointing out that he was outlanded 94-40 by Kazula Vargas at distance. Brady believes Bahamondes will keep the fight on the feet and outwork Zhu.

Bahamondes by decision
"I like baja monas to win here i like baja monas to win probably by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody picks Bahamondes by decision, citing his size, volume, and takedown defense. He notes Bahamondes' improvement and ability to stuff takedowns, while Zhu is still raw. Cody likes the decision prop at +150 and plans to bet it later in the week.

Bahamondes by decision +150 (DraftKings)
"baja mondez by decision i haven't bet it yet it's something i wanted to talk through with you"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Daniel Levi leans Ignacio Bahamondes but is cautious. He notes Bahamondes has a tendency to fight to the level of his competition and sometimes underperforms. Levi praises Bahamondes' striking and chin, but worries about Rong Zhu's talent and youth. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation and says if Bahamondes performs to his potential, he wins.

"i lean ignacio but this is one of the fights that i'm very curious to see how it plays out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The host is confident in Bahamondes, citing his volume striking, takedown defense, and ability to overwhelm opponents. He notes that Bahamondes stuffed takedowns from Roosevelt Roberts and expects similar success against Rong Zhu. He thinks Rong Zhu's only chance is a knockout, but Bahamondes should control the fight and win by decision.

"i do like bahamut in the spot i do think he goes out there and has a classic ignacio uh performance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul agrees with Bahamondes by decision, noting his pressure, volume, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Zhu's power but believes Bahamondes' size and output will win rounds. Paul also likes the decision prop at +150.

Bahamondes by decision +150 (DraftKings)
"i got the same pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

The MMA Guru picks Ignacio Bahamondes to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Bahamondes has more potential and a higher ceiling than Rong Zhu, citing Bahamondes' impressive performance against Roosevelt Roberts and his toughness in the John McDermott fight. He criticizes Zhu's loss to Rodrigo Vargas and thinks Bahamondes will pressure Zhu, lose the first round, but come back in the second and third with better pacing to take Zhu into deep waters and win the last two rounds.

29-28 decision
"i'm going to go with ignacio baramondez 29-28 based on the last two rounds"
Roosevelt Roberts - Fight History
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · Sep 28, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 45 of 95 47% 107 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 0 8:51
Roosevelt Roberts 0 24 of 60 40% 58 of 104 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 18 of 42 42% 28 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:18
Roosevelt Roberts 0 12 of 34 35% 14 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 9 of 20 45% 41 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:47
Roosevelt Roberts 0 1 of 6 16% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:46
Roosevelt Roberts 0 11 of 20 55% 27 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 45 of 95 47% 22 of 65 15 of 22 8 of 8 28 of 66 9 of 10 8 of 19
Roosevelt Roberts 24 of 60 40% 10 of 43 10 of 12 4 of 5 19 of 50 4 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 18 of 42 42% 7 of 27 7 of 11 4 of 4 12 of 36 6 of 6 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 12 of 34 35% 4 of 23 6 of 8 2 of 3 10 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Ľudovít Klein 9 of 20 45% 6 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 2 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 14
Roosevelt Roberts 1 of 6 16% 0 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 18 of 33 54% 9 of 22 7 of 9 2 of 2 14 of 25 2 of 3 2 of 5
Roosevelt Roberts 11 of 20 55% 6 of 15 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 22, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ľudovít Klein with high confidence, calling him a level above Roosevelt Roberts. He notes Klein's superior speed, technique, hands, jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and takedown defense. He believes Klein will win easily and even at -700 odds, he feels it's a discount.

"Ludovit is literally better than Roosevelt everywhere... Ludovit wins this fight... even at these current odds of minus 700, Ludovit Klein feels like a discount."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady picks Ľudovít Klein by decision, calling him a much better fighter everywhere. He notes Klein has phenomenal striking and durability, while Roberts has struggled in the UFC and lost to lower-level competition. He expects Klein to win convincingly, possibly by decision.

Klein by decision
"give me Klein here I'll take Klein to win by a pretty pretty convincing decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Cody picks Klein, noting his improved wrestling and striking since moving up to lightweight. He highlights Klein's win over Thiago Moises and his ability to mix in takedowns. Roberts is on short notice and has not won in the UFC in over four years, with poor takedown defense and grappling.

"Ludi Klein that that that's for me this week"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Connor agrees, stating that Roberts has a broad but not deep game, and the core of that game is a phase where he is not physically on par with opponents. He thinks Roberts will be unable to physically stop Klein from doing what he wants, and that Klein will likely knock him out.

"I don't even know the client's going to knock him out. Roberts is tough."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel Vreeland picks Ľudovít Klein to win by knockout. He thinks Klein's speed, power, and technique are on another level, and that Roberts is a step down in competition. He notes Klein's improved cardio and takedown defense since moving to 155. He believes the price is justified and expects a finish.

wins by KO
"I think Klein just an opportunity to knock this guy out and add another name to the resumate so I think you should knock knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

JP picks Ľudovít Klein because he thinks Klein is skilled and will dominate. He notes Roosevelt Roberts is a mid-level fighter who was cut and brought back, and he expects Klein to submit him. He says the line at -800 is deserved.

"ludovi Klein on the other hand he's really skilled he's a good fighter I honestly think he works Roosevelt Roberts in this one I don't think it's close whatsoever"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Paul agrees, calling Klein a massive favorite for a reason. He notes Roberts' short notice and lack of recent success. Klein's physicality and wrestling should be too much, and he expects a finish or dominant decision.

"Klein should absolutely roll"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein over Roosevelt Roberts, stating Klein is levels above. He criticizes Roberts' UFC performances, noting he was finished by Jim Miller and Ignacio Bahamondes. He predicts Klein will be too powerful and win by first-round KO.

first round KO
"I think he's going to be too powerful too strong and I think he'll actually smoke him in the first round get a first round KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Zane believes Klein is a bad matchup for Roberts because Roberts is not athletic enough, not strong enough, and not technical enough from range. He notes that Roberts' game is too clinch-dependent and that Klein is more powerful and slicker at range. Zane expects Klein to dominate, possibly with a knockout.

"Roberts is just not that guy. He's not going to take anything away from Klein on the outside."
Submission (armbar) R1 3:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts (158: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Roberts (+500)

Round 1
Originally expecting he would come to blows with Tajikistan’s Nurullo Aliev, on ultra-late notice, Rebecki (18-1, 2-0 UFC) will instead welcome Roberts (12-3, 1 NC; 4-3, 1 NC UFC) back to the Octagon. The eight-fight vet left the organization in 2021 after getting posterized by Ignacio Bahamondes, and two wins on the regional circuit plus an appearance on the 31st season of “The Ultimate Fighter” led to “The Predator”—no not that one—getting a return ticket to the UFC. Unfortunately for Roberts, his second chance at a first impression will start off rough, as he could not reach the lightweight limit, coming in two pounds heavy and losing a hefty chunk of his purse. The two will proceed with referee Mike Beltran as their third, and the combatants happily exchange a fist bump. Roberts measures a right hand, and he just misses Rebecki. Rebecki rips a few kicks down low, and he comes up short with big swinging fists. Roberts backs off, looking for a knee to counter, and Rebecki follows him and secures a double-leg takedown to put Roberts on the mat. Rebecki slashes down with an elbow on the forehead, and he maintains position while landing some sporadic ground-and-pound. Rebecki grinds down with his elbow, frustrating the taller fighter, until Roberts kicks his feet in pursuit of a sweep. This backfires for him, as Rebecki takes side control in a hurry. Roberts is able to power his way back up through sheer muscle, and Rebecki drags him down to his face from behind. As Roberts recovers, Rebecki slithers around to take the back and get both hooks in. Rebecki smacks Roberts on the sides of his head, softening his man up until Roberts times an explosion to turn around and stand up.
Before he gets all the way up, Rebecki snares him in an armbar, and “The Predator” has just become the prey. Roberts tries to roll through to defend against the submission, but this places him in even greater danger. Rebecki continues to torque the arm with all his might, and Roberts screams out before his arm breaks and his tendons snap.
Beltran is immediately on the action to make sure nothing goes awry, but Rebecki releases the grip as soon as he hears the verbal submission. The Polish fighter is in all smiles when he stands back up, and he calls for the UFC to hold an event in Poland soon.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Roosevelt Roberts R1 3:08 via Submission (Armbar)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, calling him a 'finished product' with excellent grappling and power. He thinks Roberts is outclassed everywhere and that Rębecki will maul him. He notes the line is high but believes Rębecki is the goods.

"rebecky minus 650 is insane but guy's the goods he's he's going to be a problem"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, comparing him to grinders like Nick Lentz and Jon Fitch. He notes Rębecki's suffocating pressure and technique, and that Roberts is a short-notice replacement with a puncher's chance only. He expects Rębecki to dominate wherever the fight goes.

"rebecky is going to be a problem for most of these guys until he starts cracking into the top 15"
KO (spinning wheel kick) R3 4:55 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ignacio Bahamondes 0 55 of 168 32% 65 of 185 0 of 12 0% 0 0 1:44
Roosevelt Roberts 1 105 of 228 46% 124 of 260 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 24 of 63 38% 24 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:11
Roosevelt Roberts 0 33 of 70 47% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 18 of 57 31% 20 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:33
Roosevelt Roberts 0 38 of 87 43% 43 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 63 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Roosevelt Roberts 1 34 of 71 47% 44 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ignacio Bahamondes 55 of 168 32% 47 of 154 2 of 5 6 of 9 54 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 105 of 228 46% 41 of 145 31 of 43 33 of 40 97 of 216 6 of 9 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ignacio Bahamondes 24 of 63 38% 20 of 56 0 of 1 4 of 6 24 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 33 of 70 47% 18 of 53 5 of 5 10 of 12 31 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ignacio Bahamondes 18 of 57 31% 17 of 54 0 of 1 1 of 2 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 38 of 87 43% 13 of 52 9 of 16 16 of 19 38 of 86 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Ignacio Bahamondes 13 of 48 27% 10 of 44 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 34 of 71 47% 10 of 40 17 of 22 7 of 9 28 of 63 4 of 5 2 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Roberts is a much better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ, while Bahamondes has no submissions and is very hittable. He believes if Roberts gets the fight to the mat, he will submit Bahamondes. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"i'm actually going to take roosevelt roberts i'm going to take him to win by i'll say second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody picks Bahamondes as a dog, citing his size, volume striking, and durability. He notes Roberts' low output and takedown defense issues, and believes Bahamondes can outwork him. He also likes the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
"this one really does boil down to a dog or pass for me if you're gonna give me plus 130 on ignacio baja mondays again this is a card i see a fair amount of these underdogs coming through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Roberts is a buy-low spot after two losses where he was a huge favorite; he has talent and can fulfill his potential. Bahamondes struggled with distance in his UFC debut and has submission losses. Roberts has good boxing and can mix in takedowns, and I think he covers this line. I'm picking Roberts by decision, but a submission is possible.

Roberts by submission (+325); Roberts by decision (+180)
"I do like roberts here i think he's going to completely cover this -145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul leans toward Bahamondes, noting his size and striking output. He questions Roberts' ability to get takedowns and believes Bahamondes' volume could overwhelm him. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.

Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
"i'm staring staring down the barrel at this under two and a half plus 140"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts over Ignacio Bahamondes. He believes Bahamondes is overrated due to size and reach advantages, and that Roberts is more fundamentally sound. He cites Bahamondes' loss to John McDeasy where McDeasy won with a jab, indicating range-finding issues. Roberts has good grappling and takedown defense. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Roberts.

"i'm going to go with roosevelt roberts i think he's actually just technically sound compared to ignacio barramundis who gets a little bit wild"
LOSS vs Kevin Croom
No Contest (overturned) R1 0:31 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Croom 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roosevelt Roberts 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Croom 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Roosevelt Roberts 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Croom 2 of 5 40% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Croom 2 of 5 40% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, noting that Roberts has a length advantage on the feet and a good submission game. He expects Frevola to take Roberts down and control him, but Roberts is slick on the ground and could get a reversal or submission. He predicts Roberts by decision, as long as he stays out of a submission.

possible bet
"give me matt for vol to win this fight um maybe a possible bet as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)

The host favors Frevola's superior wrestling and overall game, believing he can take Roberts down repeatedly and wear him out. He notes Roberts has fast hands but poor takedown defense, and Frevola has power in his hands as well. He expects Frevola to win a decision or possibly get a finish, and considers him one of his stronger leans on the card.

Frevola by decision
"I do like for vola in this spot i do like that the odds again slightly better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts but is hesitant, noting that Matt Frevola puts heavy pressure and shoots many takedowns. However, he believes Roberts has improved dramatically, is younger, and has shown confidence in his stand-up against Brock Weaver. He expects Roberts to survive early scrambles and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a close 29-28 unanimous decision.

If odds shift, maybe bet on Frevola as underdog.
"i am going to pick him to win because i genuinely think he's going to go out there and get it done he's the younger guy he's improving so dramatically"
LOSS vs Jim Miller
Submission (armbar) R1 2:25 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 2 of 3 66% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:48
Roosevelt Roberts 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 2 of 3 66% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:48
Roosevelt Roberts 0 1 of 2 50% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
Roosevelt Roberts 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2
Roosevelt Roberts 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Round 1
We commence the main card with a 160-pound scheduled catchweight contest between one of the most active fighters in UFC history in Miller (31-14, 1 NC; 20-13, 1 NC UFC) against the young, hungry Roberts (10-1, 4-1 UFC). In the cage, referee Herb Dean has been tapped to oversee this battle, and the two men touch ‘em up before they start trading. Roberts starts out with a front kick, and Miller grabs it and chases him down in an instant. Getting into full guard, Miller starts to work the body as Roberts throws his legs up. Roberts tries to scramble, and “A-10” dives down to set up a guillotine choke. Roberts stays patient and slowly works his neck out, but in the meantime, Miller advances to half guard.
Roberts explodes to his knees while Miller tries to stay on top, and when Roberts tries to get on top, Miller rolls for an armbar. The arm is tight and Roberts is doomed. There is no escape, and "The Predator" verbally taps out.
That is UFC win number 21 for Miller, who is now two shy of the record held by Donald Cerrone.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Roosevelt Roberts R1 2:25 via Submission (Armbar)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts by decision, but is wary of Jim Miller's first-round danger. He thinks Roberts' reach and striking advantage will be key if he survives the first round. He notes Miller's dangerous BJJ but believes Roberts can avoid submissions and outpoint Miller in later rounds.

odds: Roberts minus 225, Miller plus 185; pick by decision
"I think Roberts gonna come out here probably I think isn't one a decision but would not be surprised if he did you know get a light finish on Miller"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Daniel Levi picks Roosevelt Roberts, citing his length, youth, and improving skills. He notes that Jim Miller's wins often come early via submission or knockout, but if Roberts survives the first round, his cardio and reach advantage will take over. Levi expects Roberts to find a submission or win a decision as Miller fades.

Roosevelt Roberts by finish
"I'm going to lean with the favorite as well. I'm going to go with Roosevelt Roberts, Shaq."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Roberts is a young up-and-comer who has improved his stand-up, sitting down on his punches more. Miller is a veteran who took a lot of damage in his last fight. Roberts will get the TKO in the second round.

"I think he's gonna get the jump on Jim Miller and get it done in the second round by TKO"
WIN vs Brok Weaver
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:26 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roosevelt Roberts 0 40 of 61 65% 54 of 76 1 of 3 33% 3 0 3:04
Brok Weaver 0 14 of 48 29% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 37 56% 24 of 40 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:44
Brok Weaver 0 9 of 36 25% 17 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:58
2 Roosevelt Roberts 0 19 of 24 79% 30 of 36 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:20
Brok Weaver 0 5 of 12 41% 9 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roosevelt Roberts 40 of 61 65% 27 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 6 25 of 46 2 of 2 13 of 13
Brok Weaver 14 of 48 29% 5 of 35 9 of 11 0 of 2 10 of 41 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 37 56% 9 of 23 6 of 8 6 of 6 19 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Brok Weaver 9 of 36 25% 5 of 29 4 of 5 0 of 2 9 of 34 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roosevelt Roberts 19 of 24 79% 18 of 22 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 13 of 13
Brok Weaver 5 of 12 41% 0 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 7 4 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts to win by submission. He believes Roberts is better everywhere and that Weaver's weakness on the ground will be exploited. He notes that Weaver struggled with Vargas's takedowns and ground game, and Roberts is a step up. He thinks the only way Weaver wins is by a fluke knockout, and he is confident in Roberts getting a submission.

Roberts wins by submission
"I'm gonna pick Roberts to win and I'm gonna pick him to win by submission I'm pretty confident in that pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Daniel leans towards Roberts but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation at the current odds. He acknowledges Roberts is the more skilled fighter with a higher ceiling, but notes that Weaver could make it a dogfight. He is not entirely sold on Weaver's level of competition and thinks Roberts should win if he stays focused.

dog or pass situation
"i do lean towards the favorite but i kind of think it's a dog or pass situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts to win by unanimous decision. He is unimpressed by Brok Weaver's UFC debut, noting that Weaver was taken down repeatedly by Rodrigo Vargas and got knocked out by an illegal knee. He believes Roberts is more well-rounded, with good grappling and striking, and will outwork Weaver.

Roberts by decision
"Roosevelt Roberts is gonna get the job done over Brock Weaver I just don't like Brock Weaver's style man I just think is a little bit one-dimensional"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magomedsharipov vs. Kattar · Nov 09, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roosevelt Roberts 0 20 of 49 40% 38 of 71 3 of 8 37% 0 0 6:19
Alexander Yakovlev 0 28 of 98 28% 56 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roosevelt Roberts 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:03
Alexander Yakovlev 0 16 of 49 32% 19 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
2 Roosevelt Roberts 0 7 of 12 58% 17 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:42
Alexander Yakovlev 0 2 of 8 25% 8 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roosevelt Roberts 0 5 of 21 23% 13 of 32 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:34
Alexander Yakovlev 0 10 of 41 24% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roosevelt Roberts 20 of 49 40% 8 of 34 6 of 9 6 of 6 12 of 38 1 of 1 7 of 10
Alexander Yakovlev 28 of 98 28% 22 of 90 2 of 4 4 of 4 27 of 96 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roosevelt Roberts 8 of 16 50% 1 of 8 1 of 2 6 of 6 7 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Yakovlev 16 of 49 32% 10 of 42 2 of 3 4 of 4 15 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roosevelt Roberts 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 10
Alexander Yakovlev 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roosevelt Roberts 5 of 21 23% 3 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Yakovlev 10 of 41 24% 10 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Vinc Pichel
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. dos Santos · Jun 29, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vinc Pichel 0 31 of 87 35% 34 of 90 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:34
Roosevelt Roberts 0 60 of 101 59% 81 of 122 3 of 6 50% 1 1 5:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vinc Pichel 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
Roosevelt Roberts 0 18 of 29 62% 22 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Vinc Pichel 0 10 of 30 33% 13 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 37 56% 29 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:35
3 Vinc Pichel 0 4 of 14 28% 4 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Roosevelt Roberts 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 44 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vinc Pichel 31 of 87 35% 22 of 75 6 of 8 3 of 4 26 of 80 5 of 6 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 60 of 101 59% 29 of 55 16 of 26 15 of 20 26 of 62 14 of 16 20 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vinc Pichel 17 of 43 39% 10 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 4 13 of 38 4 of 5 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 18 of 29 62% 3 of 10 7 of 10 8 of 9 9 of 20 9 of 9 0 of 0
2 Vinc Pichel 10 of 30 33% 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 37 56% 8 of 18 7 of 10 6 of 9 12 of 23 3 of 5 6 of 9
3 Vinc Pichel 4 of 14 28% 4 of 13 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 1
Roosevelt Roberts 21 of 35 60% 18 of 27 2 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 19 2 of 2 14 of 14
Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, citing a significant grappling advantage. He notes Roberts is a much better grappler with a brown belt in BJJ, while Bahamondes has no submissions and is very hittable. He believes if Roberts gets the fight to the mat, he will submit Bahamondes. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"i'm actually going to take roosevelt roberts i'm going to take him to win by i'll say second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Cody picks Bahamondes as a dog, citing his size, volume striking, and durability. He notes Roberts' low output and takedown defense issues, and believes Bahamondes can outwork him. He also likes the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
"this one really does boil down to a dog or pass for me if you're gonna give me plus 130 on ignacio baja mondays again this is a card i see a fair amount of these underdogs coming through"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

Roberts is a buy-low spot after two losses where he was a huge favorite; he has talent and can fulfill his potential. Bahamondes struggled with distance in his UFC debut and has submission losses. Roberts has good boxing and can mix in takedowns, and I think he covers this line. I'm picking Roberts by decision, but a submission is possible.

Roberts by submission (+325); Roberts by decision (+180)
"I do like roberts here i think he's going to completely cover this -145"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ignacio Bahamondes

Paul leans toward Bahamondes, noting his size and striking output. He questions Roberts' ability to get takedowns and believes Bahamondes' volume could overwhelm him. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a potential play.

Under 2.5 rounds (+140)
"i'm staring staring down the barrel at this under two and a half plus 140"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Roosevelt Roberts

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts over Ignacio Bahamondes. He believes Bahamondes is overrated due to size and reach advantages, and that Roberts is more fundamentally sound. He cites Bahamondes' loss to John McDeasy where McDeasy won with a jab, indicating range-finding issues. Roberts has good grappling and takedown defense. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Roberts.

"i'm going to go with roosevelt roberts i think he's actually just technically sound compared to ignacio barramundis who gets a little bit wild"