Career Averages - Vinc Pichel
Career Averages - Austin Hubbard
Vinc Pichel
Austin Hubbard
Vinc Pichel - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 0 | 64 of 120 | 53% | 76 of 136 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 79 of 182 | 43% | 88 of 191 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 19 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 32 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 0 | 31 of 47 | 65% | 33 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 34 of 74 | 45% | 35 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa García | 64 of 120 | 53% | 49 of 102 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 59 of 114 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Vinc Pichel | 79 of 182 | 43% | 32 of 116 | 27 of 43 | 20 of 23 | 74 of 174 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafa García | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 13 of 38 | 34% | 7 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Rafa García | 21 of 49 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 32 of 70 | 45% | 12 of 43 | 13 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 29 of 67 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rafa García | 31 of 47 | 65% | 26 of 41 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Vinc Pichel | 34 of 74 | 45% | 13 of 43 | 12 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 33 of 71 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-485), Pichel (+370)
Round 1
Twelve years separate the next two competitors, with the younger man a heavy betting favorite. Garcia (16-4, 4-4 UFC) gets a huge pop from the crowd as the first Mexican-born athlete to hit the stage today, while the leisurely paced Pichel (14-4, 7-4 UFC) is showered in boos. The lightweights with a fairly similar amount of combat experience touch gloves before referee Raul Porrata. Pichel keeps his distance early, parrying any incoming fire and letting the energy in favor of Garcia wash over them both. Garcia breaks the silence with a huge overhand right and rips a left to the liver. Pichel responds with a left hook that makes the Mexican fighter back off for a moment, and Garcia measures him with a thudding right hand that makes Pichel have to blink it out repeatedly. Garcia crowds him with a pair of hooks, and he swats away a head kick. Garcia crashes through a low kick to hurl punches, and Pichel keeps a wide berth and stabs out a front kick. Garcia comes up short with haymakers, allowing the elder Pichel to potshot him from a safe distance. When Pichel kicks low, Garcia wings a right hand over the top. Pichel fires back with a vengeance, and Garcia shrugs it off and stays close in front of him but not too close. Garcia scores a single low kick and is jabbed back, and he raises his guard in the nick of time to block an overhand right. Garcia swings wide to the body, forcing Pichel to ricochet off the wall, and he hammers the front leg with a kick. Pichel loads up with a body kick, and Garcia smiles at him and continues to crowd him. Garcia pushes a front kick out of the way to crowd the older fighter, pressing him against the wall while stomping on his toes. Garcia lifts Pichel’s legs up and is about to deposit him to the ground, but Pichel regains his balance. Perhaps in a poor bit of decisionmaking, Pichel spins for a back elbow while tightly pressed to his foe, and this allows Garcia to hit a clean double on him. Garcia rides out the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Round 2
The athletes get right back down to business, trading leather early and often. Pichel sneaks in a right hand and slips to the side, and he dips to fire off an uppercut and jogs away to reset. Pichel’s stance switches and awkward movement prevents Garcia from blitzing him on the regular, and he keeps his head on a swivel to not get caught with anything flush. Garcia nevertheless walks him down and blasts him in the face with a crisp right hand, and then chains two more fists behind it. Pichel flashes out his jab, pop pop bang, to keep Garcia from going at him. Pichel pushes off while trying to push his foe’s arm out of the way, and his thumb slides deep into Garcia’s eye socket. Pichel immediately apologizes before Porrata gets between them, and he gives Garcia all the time he needs to recover. Garcia takes it, accepts Pichel’s fervent apology and gets back to walking the aging fighter down. Pichel uses his knee to frame off, and he strings a few punches together behind it. Pichel tosses up a head kick that is blocked in time, and he probes out a right hand before getting his head snapped back with a one-two. Pichel tries to jump his way forward, and he pushes off Garcia’s face and slams his shin on Garcia’s calf. Garcia grimaces and wraps Pichel up in hopes of taking him down. Pichel leans against the wall to keep himself upright, and he postures off and breaks free, where he puts punches and kicks together in rapid succession. Pichel fakes to the body to open up a head shot, and Garcia can only swing big right hands back at him. A few of those get through, and Pichel beans him with a counter overhand right to make him think twice about entering the pocket with his hands low. Pichel comes up swinging with a huge uppercut, and he hand-fights to parry most of the blows aimed at him. Pichel jabs to the head and body, and he splits the guard with a front kick, toes extended towards the target. Garcia lumbers forward swinging heavy leather, and Pichel skirts to the slide and flicks out a few low kicks to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Round 3
Pichel is fired up to start up the last round, and he channels that energy with frenetic punches and kicks that stop Garcia from getting through to him. Pichel strings a few punches together up top, and Garcia clutches his eye as if he was poked. Pichel claims it was a closed fist that did the damage, and he unloads with flying fists until Garcia steels himself and comes back out swinging. Pichel counters the flailing strikes, but he is taking shots to the body and taking heavy breaths. Garcia continues to put everything behind every one of his swings, while Pichel is more than content to jab and prod. When Garcia looks to charge, Pichel pushes him back with jabs and front kicks, but Garcia decides to pour it on and tags Pichel a few times. Pichel rebounds off the fencing and uses his push kick to redden up Garcia’s midsection. Pichel probers out with straight punches until getting tagged, and he starts swinging back with arc on his punches when not mixing in his front kick. Pichel further keeps things interesting by shooting for a takedown, and Garcia just stands before him and smiles at him. A Pichel front kick bumps the cup, and Garcia wants to keep going so it goes uncalled. Pichel loads up on body kicks and walks through three left hands, kicking Garcia constantly while keeping his distance. The leg kicks to the thigh and calf keep landing for “From Hell,” until Garcia is sick of taking them and just lifts Pichel up and deposits him down to the mat like a sack of potatoes. Pichel scoots his way towards the wall in hopes of walking up it, while Garcia tries to smother him and threaten with an arm-triangle choke. Pichel turns to his knees and stands, and Garcia slugs him in the face with numerous unanswered right hands. Pichel frees himself with seconds to go, and he lets Garcia have it with all his remaining energy. Punches, kicks and knees fly every which way until the final horn blares, signaling an end to what turned into an entertaining scrap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (29-28 Garcia)
The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Vinc Pichel via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Connor picks García, noting his high-output, new-school wrestle-boxing style will overwhelm the aging Pichel. He acknowledges Pichel's toughness and low kicks as potential wrinkles but believes García's pace and boxing will be too much. He is surprised by the wide odds, given García's loss to Chris Gruetzemacher.
Zane picks García, agreeing that his pace and pressure will be decisive. He notes Pichel's old-school style and lack of speed, comparing him to an aged Jan Błachowicz. Zane thinks García's boxing and wrestling defense are solid, and that Pichel's low kicks are a minor threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 111 of 216 | 51% | 112 of 217 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 61 of 142 | 42% | 64 of 147 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 34 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 18 of 47 | 38% | 18 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 36 of 75 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 3 | Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 42 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 21 of 41 | 51% | 24 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismael Bonfim | 111 of 216 | 51% | 80 of 176 | 13 of 20 | 18 of 20 | 107 of 209 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 |
| Vinc Pichel | 61 of 142 | 42% | 26 of 93 | 14 of 24 | 21 of 25 | 60 of 140 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ismael Bonfim | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 13 of 15 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 18 of 47 | 38% | 5 of 29 | 5 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ismael Bonfim | 36 of 75 | 48% | 29 of 66 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 36 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 22 of 54 | 40% | 9 of 37 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ismael Bonfim | 41 of 75 | 54% | 32 of 63 | 7 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 37 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Vinc Pichel | 21 of 41 | 51% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident in Bonfim, citing his youth, power, and aggressive style against the 41-year-old Pichel who hasn't fought in two years. He references the trend of older fighters getting finished at UFC Vegas 91. He advises betting early before odds move.
Big Brady highlights Bonfim's youth and striking advantage, noting Pichel's age (41) and long layoff as major concerns. He believes Bonfim will stuff takedowns and dominate on the feet, leading to a one-sided decision. He acknowledges Pichel's submission threat but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Bonfim, citing his sharp striking, takedown defense, and cardio. He notes Pichel is 41, inactive, and has no submission wins. Cody expects Bonfim to win, possibly by decision or late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bonfim by decision, citing his youth, volume striking, and experience despite his age. He notes that Pichel is durable and has low mileage for his age, but Bonfim's boxing and takedown defense should allow him to win minutes on the feet. He believes Bonfim's finishing equity is overrated and that a decision is likely.
Bonfim stumbled in his last fight against Benoit Saint-Denis but is expected to have a better showing against the 41-year-old Pichel, who has been two years away from the cage. Bonfim is the slicker striker and can stay competitive in grappling if Pichel takes it there. His striking will start to chip away at Pichel and allow him to find a finish in the second or third round.
Paul picks Bonfim, highlighting his explosive striking and takedown defense. He notes Pichel's inactivity and age are concerns. Paul expects Bonfim to win but acknowledges Pichel's grit could make it competitive.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Ismael Bonfim, predicting a first-round TKO. He expects Bonfim to push Pichel against the cage and bait him with feints, while noting Pichel's age (41) and over two years of inactivity as key factors. He also mentions Bonfim's good jiu-jitsu and the favorable matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 0 | 68 of 123 | 55% | 88 of 144 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 39 of 87 | 44% | 57 of 110 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 5:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 24 of 50 | 48% | 24 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 15 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 39 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 24 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Madsen | 68 of 123 | 55% | 32 of 78 | 21 of 30 | 15 of 15 | 53 of 106 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Vinc Pichel | 39 of 87 | 44% | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 11 | 32 of 78 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Madsen | 24 of 50 | 48% | 7 of 25 | 8 of 16 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Vinc Pichel | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mark Madsen | 22 of 41 | 53% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinc Pichel | 13 of 34 | 38% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Mark Madsen | 22 of 32 | 68% | 14 of 24 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| Vinc Pichel | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Mark Madsen despite being surprised that Pichel is the favorite. He notes Madsen's Olympic wrestling background and improved striking, as shown in his win over Clay Guida. He expects Madsen to use takedowns similar to Gregor Gillespie's approach, though he acknowledges Pichel's movement could trouble Madsen on the feet.
Big Brady picks Mark Madsen to win a close decision, likely split. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling should dominate early rounds, but his cardio is a concern as he faded in the third round against Austin Hubbard. Pichel has terrible takedown defense (25%) but is tough and wins the third round. Brady thinks Madsen edges the second round to win.
Cody is on the same page as Paul, picking Pichel. He notes Madsen's wrestling is explosive but lacks top control, leading to gassing. Cody points out Madsen's susceptibility to leg kicks and Pichel's nasty low kick. He thinks Pichel's chaos and pressure will break Madsen, similar to how he broke Austin Hubbard. Cody expects Pichel to win, possibly by decision but hopes for a third-round finish.
Levi believes Mark Madsen is improving with each fight, showing better cardio and striking. He notes Vinc Pichel's takedown defense is not great and that Madsen's wrestling should be a big advantage. He thinks the fight should be a pick'em, so at plus money he is taking Madsen to win a decision by securing the first two rounds.
I think Pichel is the much better striker and has improving wrestling. Madsen needs to get an early finish or he will fade. Pichel has a good gas tank and will wear on Madsen. I see Pichel finding a knockout later in the fight, likely in the third round.
Paul is confident in Pichel, having already bet him at -122 and -127. He notes Madsen's poor cardio and inability to hold opponents down, as seen against Clay Guida. Paul emphasizes Pichel's leg kicks targeting Madsen's lead leg, which Madsen leaves exposed. He predicts Pichel wins by TKO in round 3, as Madsen fades. Paul also likes Pichel round 3 at +1600.
The MMA Guru picks Vinc Pichel, unimpressed by Mark Madsen's grappling. He expects Madsen to win the first round via takedowns but fade, with Pichel's cardio and ability to get up leading to a 29-28 decision. He notes that Pichel beat Austin Hubbard more convincingly than Madsen did.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 71 of 160 | 44% | 96 of 187 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 56 of 152 | 36% | 66 of 171 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 24 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 71 of 160 | 44% | 28 of 108 | 16 of 23 | 27 of 29 | 59 of 145 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 56 of 152 | 36% | 29 of 110 | 17 of 31 | 10 of 11 | 51 of 145 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 21 of 55 | 38% | 4 of 34 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 22 of 58 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 27 of 63 | 42% | 11 of 44 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 19 of 52 | 36% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 23 of 42 | 54% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 15 of 42 | 35% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.
Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.
Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 26 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 5:10 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 41 of 78 | 52% | 84 of 124 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 6:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:16 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 39 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:47 |
| Jim Miller | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 26 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 14 of 39 | 35% | 6 of 30 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Jim Miller | 41 of 78 | 52% | 27 of 64 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 35 | 9 of 11 | 17 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 11 of 29 | 37% | 4 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jim Miller | 12 of 24 | 50% | 5 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 21 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Jim Miller | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
| Jim Miller | 17 of 31 | 54% | 11 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Competing atop the preliminary card is the most active fighter in UFC history in Miller (32-14, 1 NC; 21-13, 1 NC UFC) against “From Hell” Pichel (12-2, 5-2 UFC) in the lightweight division. Pichel made his UFC debut in 2012 and this will be his eighth fight with the promotion, while Miller will have competed 23 times in that same span when the night ends. Referee Herb Dean will keep a watchful eye on this preliminary headliner, and there is a touch of gloves before these two get down to it. The two try to find their way in, and Pichel lands first with a left hand. Miller charges back at him and catches him with a left, and nearly clips him with a knee up the middle. Pichel fires back, and lands a body kick. Miller again races towards him with a string of punches, and he ends a combination with a hard leg kick. A sharp uppercut stings Pichel, and Miller tosses a low kick that grazes the cup and halts the action briefly. Miller takes a shot to the cup as well but he fights through it as they swing for the bleachers. Miller walks him down and clinches up, landing a knee to the torso before trying to trip Pichel’s legs out. Miller commits to a single but Pichel keeps them upright, so Miller drills him in the breadbasket with a knee. Miller hacks at him with elbows and pair of knees until Pichel breaks free. Miller flips up a head kick and Pichel blocks it without countering. Miller walks him down with another head kick and a low kick, and Pichel’s hands are by his waist possibly to stop a takedown. The hand position does not help him stuff the takedown that soon follows, and Miller instantly takes Pichel’s back to get his hooks in. “From Hell” tries with all his might to lean to the fence to try to stave off the submission, and he nearly spins out but almost falls into submission danger. Pichel turns about so Miller switches to a guillotine choke, which he uses to take top position as Pichel holds on tight. Miller rolls and traps the calf of his opponent for a calf slicer, but time expires before he can secure a tap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Round 2
They touch gloves at the start of the round, and Pichel rushes in with a head kick but Miller eats it like a sandwich and hits a takedown with relative ease. Miller works him from the top while Pichel scoots back to the fence, and Miller takes the moment to get to half guard and stand up to land some strikes. Pichel kicks off and just misses an upkick, and springs back up to mash Miller against the cage. Pichel changes levels to get Miller down, and his neck is quickly in danger for a guillotine choke. “From Hell” calmly pulls his neck free, and he keeps Miller pressed to the wall while Miller throws his legs up for some submission. Pichel wrests his arms free from what looks like a double armbar, and he steps over into half guard while Miller keeps attacking. Pichel steps over and Miller latches on to a heel hook, and Pichel turns out and nails Miller with a pair of heavy elbows to step into half guard again. Pichel sets up an arm-triangle choke and swipes at Miller’s forehead with a few elbows as he grinds him out. Pichel postures up and lands a punch, but Miller ties him up again. Pichel stays heavy and keeps Miller trapped on his back, landing sporadic punches and racking up control time. Pichel gets off a few more punches as the horn sounds to wrap up the second frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel
Round 3
The two lightweights greet with one final glove touch, and Pichel rings home a right hand and a body kick before setting up a takedown. Miller tries to defend against it, but he falls to his back as Pichel fishes for a kimura. Miller yanks his arm free, but in the process, Pichel advances to side control and drops down a few elbows as Miller attempts to roll for a leg lock. Pichel steps out of it and circles around to take Miller’s back, landing a few punches and securing his hooks. Miller twists and turns as Pichel hunts for a rear-naked choke, and “A-10” powers his way up and around to go after a guillotine choke while Pichel is on his knees. A wild scramble puts Pichel on his back as Miller starts to put a few punches together. Pichel walks up the cage wall to his knee, and Miller frees a trapped leg to take Pichel’s back and drags him down. Pichel rolls along with Miller in that instance to buck Miller off, and Pichel now has Miller’s back. The exciting grappling continues as they both keep scrambling and get back to their feet. Miller presses him to the fence as he looks for a single, allowing Pichel to knee him in the chin. Another knee from Pichel backs Miller out of the clinch, and Pichel walks forward to land some punches before changing levels for a single leg takedown. Miller stuffs it and gets kneed several times. When they separate, Pichel boots him in the head, and Miller shakes off the cobwebs, pulls guard and cinches up a guillotine choke. It is incredibly tight, and Pichel is in a bad way, but he grits it out and pulls his neck out of the rough position. Pichel lands a few hard shots on top to bloody up his opponent, and the final horn concludes this exciting lightweight scrap.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pichel (29-28 Pichel)
The Official Result
Vinc Pichel def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27)
Big Brady expects Jim Miller to get the fight to the ground and submit Pichel in the first round. He notes Pichel's poor takedown defense and thinks Miller is dangerous early. He sees value on Miller as an underdog.
Daniel Levi leans toward Jim Miller. He thinks Miller is the better fighter and can win a decision if he doesn't empty his gas tank in the first round. He notes that Pichel is a point fighter who doesn't push a high pace, which may not gas Miller out. However, he acknowledges Pichel's toughness and that Miller historically loses when fights go past the first round.
Miller has the jiu-jitsu advantage and can catch Pichel from the bottom or hurt him on the feet. Pichel has ring rust and Miller is active. The fight likely ends inside the distance, with Miller by submission or Pichel by TKO. Miller's submission threat is real, and he has power in his hands. Confidence is low, but Miller gets the nod.
The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller by submission in the first round, citing Miller's recent activity and veteran experience. He believes Pichel fights infrequently and may not be fully committed, while Miller is in shape and has a submission win over a common opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 31 of 87 | 35% | 34 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 0 | 60 of 101 | 59% | 81 of 122 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 5:59 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 0 | 18 of 29 | 62% | 22 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 13 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 29 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:35 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 30 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 31 of 87 | 35% | 22 of 75 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 26 of 80 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 60 of 101 | 59% | 29 of 55 | 16 of 26 | 15 of 20 | 26 of 62 | 14 of 16 | 20 of 23 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 17 of 43 | 39% | 10 of 35 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 18 of 29 | 62% | 3 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 9 of 20 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 10 of 30 | 33% | 8 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 21 of 37 | 56% | 8 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 9 | 12 of 23 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 9 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 4 of 14 | 28% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Roosevelt Roberts | 21 of 35 | 60% | 18 of 27 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 14 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 30 of 48 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 2 | 0 | 7:51 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 35 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 20 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:06 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Gillespie | 13 of 26 | 50% | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 8 |
| Vinc Pichel | 7 of 22 | 31% | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gregor Gillespie | 8 of 17 | 47% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Vinc Pichel | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gregor Gillespie | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Vinc Pichel | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 60 of 186 | 32% | 62 of 188 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 45 of 100 | 45% | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 19 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 28 of 100 | 28% | 29 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Joaquim Silva | 0 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 60 of 186 | 32% | 24 of 135 | 15 of 21 | 21 of 30 | 50 of 174 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 45 of 100 | 45% | 30 of 79 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 44 of 97 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 13 of 38 | 34% | 3 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 6 of 16 | 37% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 19 of 48 | 39% | 9 of 30 | 3 of 8 | 7 of 10 | 17 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 11 of 30 | 36% | 7 of 23 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 28 of 100 | 28% | 12 of 80 | 9 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 23 of 94 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquim Silva | 28 of 54 | 51% | 20 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Austin Hubbard - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 101 of 197 | 51% | 104 of 201 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 75 of 226 | 33% | 77 of 228 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 21 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 18 of 59 | 30% | 18 of 59 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 29 of 62 | 46% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 0 | 52 of 89 | 58% | 52 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 29 of 99 | 29% | 30 of 100 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rong Zhu | 101 of 197 | 51% | 65 of 154 | 21 of 28 | 15 of 15 | 98 of 189 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 75 of 226 | 33% | 43 of 169 | 30 of 54 | 2 of 3 | 71 of 215 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rong Zhu | 20 of 46 | 43% | 9 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 19 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 18 of 59 | 30% | 10 of 46 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 18 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rong Zhu | 29 of 62 | 46% | 15 of 47 | 11 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 28 of 68 | 41% | 13 of 48 | 14 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 62 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rong Zhu | 52 of 89 | 58% | 41 of 75 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 52 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 29 of 99 | 29% | 20 of 75 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 94 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo slightly leans Rong Zhu due to his volume and striking, but is surprised by the -300 odds, calling them berserk. He notes that Austin Hubbard is gritty and decent everywhere, and just had a close loss to a very good fighter. He thinks Hubbard could make it tricky if he marches forward and fakes takedowns.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision, citing his youth, rapid improvement, and striking power. He notes that Zhu has been working on takedown defense and anti-grappling, which will be key against Hubbard's wrestling. He believes Zhu will win a damage-based decision over 15 minutes, as Hubbard has never been knocked out.
Connor also picks Rong Zhu, agreeing that Hubbard is a 'quadruple A' fighter who gets bullied when he doesn't have a physical edge. He notes that Hubbard's striking is not powerful and he lacks dynamism, while Rong Zhu has shown good striking and durability. Connor expects Rong Zhu to win, possibly by knockout.
The host is historically higher on Hubbard than most, but thinks this is a horrible stylistic matchup for him. He doesn't think Hubbard will be able to get to his wrestling game, allowing Rong Zhu to dictate the striking and eventually land a big knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu to win by 29-28 decision, but notes that he thinks Zhu is a bit of a big favorite and that there is value on Austin Hubbard. He believes Zhu is more talented and works well on the back foot, but acknowledges Hubbard could win the third round. He mentions that Zhu is young (25) and has had mixed results, including a loss to an underrated lightweight prospect.
Zane picks Rong Zhu confidently, citing his improved striking under City Kickboxing and his durability. He notes that Austin Hubbard is a slow-footed, non-dynamic fighter who struggles when he doesn't have a physical advantage. Zane believes Rong Zhu will hit Hubbard hard and likely win a lopsided decision or even a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 68 | 64% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:33 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 65 | 40% | 62 of 121 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 7:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 18 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:12 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 28 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:28 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 25 of 45 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 68 | 64% | 21 of 41 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 20 | 32 of 55 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 65 | 40% | 16 of 51 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquel Mederos | 23 of 35 | 65% | 9 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 21 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 17 of 39 | 43% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marquel Mederos | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marquel Mederos | 15 of 22 | 68% | 9 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 |
| Austin Hubbard | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Connor picks Mederos, noting his Tony Ferguson-like style of fighting in the pocket with high activity and creativity. He thinks Mederos's pressure will overwhelm Hubbard, who is reactive and lacks power. He acknowledges that Mederos's style puts him in danger but believes he can go far before a potential fall.
Zane picks Mederos, agreeing that his aggressive pocket fighting will be too much for Hubbard. He notes that Hubbard's game is reactive and low-power, and that Mederos's willingness to eat a shot and come back is a key advantage. Zane thinks the matchup favors Mederos's mentality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 63 of 191 | 32% | 65 of 193 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 91 of 217 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 10 of 44 | 22% | 11 of 45 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 23 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 22 of 66 | 33% | 22 of 66 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 26 of 71 | 36% | 32 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 32 of 82 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 36 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Hernandez | 63 of 191 | 32% | 32 of 142 | 25 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 60 of 177 | 3 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 79 of 204 | 38% | 41 of 144 | 22 of 38 | 16 of 22 | 78 of 203 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Hernandez | 10 of 44 | 22% | 2 of 27 | 7 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 23 of 60 | 38% | 10 of 43 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Hernandez | 22 of 66 | 33% | 12 of 53 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 58 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 26 of 71 | 36% | 13 of 48 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 26 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Hernandez | 31 of 81 | 38% | 18 of 62 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 77 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 30 of 73 | 41% | 18 of 53 | 10 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 29 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)
Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.
Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.
Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.
Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.
Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.
The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.
Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.
Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 88 of 206 | 42% | 99 of 220 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 92 of 210 | 43% | 100 of 218 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 19 of 57 | 33% | 27 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 37 of 85 | 43% | 37 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 30 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 32 of 64 | 50% | 35 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Michał Figlak | 0 | 36 of 70 | 51% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 88 of 206 | 42% | 55 of 162 | 22 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 85 of 203 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 92 of 210 | 43% | 60 of 173 | 16 of 19 | 16 of 18 | 88 of 204 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 19 of 57 | 33% | 11 of 45 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 7 | 18 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 26 of 59 | 44% | 15 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 37 of 85 | 43% | 23 of 65 | 11 of 15 | 3 of 5 | 37 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 30 of 81 | 37% | 18 of 68 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 30 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 32 of 64 | 50% | 21 of 52 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 30 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Michał Figlak | 36 of 70 | 51% | 27 of 58 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 5 | 32 of 64 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a half-unit bet on Michał Figlak at -125, beating the line movement. He thinks Figlak is the much better and more dangerous fighter, with powerful striking and solid wrestling used defensively. He worries about Figlak's two-year layoff, noting that strikers with long layoffs often struggle to find rhythm. However, he believes Figlak's talent outweighs the risk at the current odds, though he cautions if Figlak reaches -170 or higher the layoff becomes too risky.
Cody picks Figlak, believing he will show improvement after a poor debut. He likes Figlak's pressure style and volume, and thinks Hubbard is a warm body with no standout skills. He expects Figlak to win by decision or late finish.
Daniel calls Hubbard 'harmless Hubbard' – durable but not a finisher. He thinks Figlak has had two years to improve and has the physicality and takedown defense to outwork Hubbard. He predicts Figlak by decision, noting Hubbard's lack of threat.
Hubbard has a wrestling and grappling advantage and should be able to dictate the pace, take Figlak down, and grind him out from top position. Figlak struggled against a striker in his UFC debut and may not have the resistance to stop Hubbard's pressure. Hubbard wins on the scorecards.
Paul also picks Figlak, citing his potential and Hubbard's limited ceiling. He notes Figlak's youth and room for growth, and believes the 16-month layoff will help him. He is worried about Hubbard's wrestling but trusts Figlak's improvements.
The MMA Guru picks Michał Figlak, noting he has been high on him for a long time. He mentions Figlak's training at Renegades with Leon Edwards and Arnold Allen, and his unrelenting pressure. He criticizes Austin Hubbard for looking awful against Kurt Holobaugh and beating low-level competition. He predicts Figlak will finish Hubbard with body shots to head shots in the late second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 61 of 119 | 51% | 85 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 44 of 107 | 41% | 61 of 125 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 58 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 48 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Holobaugh | 61 of 119 | 51% | 46 of 101 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 50 of 106 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 44 of 107 | 41% | 25 of 86 | 17 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 87 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kurt Holobaugh | 37 of 78 | 47% | 26 of 64 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 30 of 71 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 31 of 74 | 41% | 16 of 58 | 14 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 57 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 8 | |
| 2 | Kurt Holobaugh | 24 of 41 | 58% | 20 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 33 | 39% | 9 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo likes Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog despite his 0-6 UFC record, noting that his losses were to top competition like Thiago Moises, Shane Burgos, and Humberto Bandenay. He believes Holobaugh's striking combinations and power will be too much for Austin Hubbard, though he acknowledges Hubbard's chin and takedown ability as concerns. He expects Holobaugh to win and become the Ultimate Fighter champion.
Cody likes Holobaugh's momentum from The Ultimate Fighter, his durability, and power. He thinks Hubbard is a volume pressure fighter but Holobaugh has a chip on his shoulder and nothing to lose. He picks Holobaugh as an underdog to win a decision or late finish.
Daniel Levi picks Austin Hubbard to do his typical thing, turning the fight into a sparring match and not taking risks. He notes that Hubbard is hard to finish and has survived bad spots against high-level grapplers. However, Levi is not laying the price and calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He prefers the over and Holobaugh decision props.
Lucrative James sees value on Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, believing the fight should be a pick'em. He notes Holobaugh has more finishing threat and has faced better competition, while Austin Hubbard relies on toughness and volume but lacks major skills. However, he acknowledges Holobaugh's age (36) and potential to be out-volumed.
Hubbard has added wrinkles to his game, mixing striking with takedowns. He should be competitive on the feet and then use his wrestling to grind out Holobaugh, who struggles with defensive grappling. Hubbard's kicks and range control will set up takedowns. The line has moved to a reasonable -160/-170 range, making him a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard over Kurt Holobaugh. He acknowledges Holobaugh's pocket boxing skills but believes Hubbard's straight punches, front kicks, and low kicks will keep him from standing in the pocket. Hubbard also has offensive grappling and excellent takedown defense, allowing him to dictate where the fight takes place. The Guru sees Hubbard's versatility as too much for Holobaugh.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 0 | 71 of 160 | 44% | 96 of 187 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 56 of 152 | 36% | 66 of 171 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 27 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 22 of 58 | 37% | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 34 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 24 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 35 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 18 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinc Pichel | 71 of 160 | 44% | 28 of 108 | 16 of 23 | 27 of 29 | 59 of 145 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 56 of 152 | 36% | 29 of 110 | 17 of 31 | 10 of 11 | 51 of 145 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vinc Pichel | 21 of 55 | 38% | 4 of 34 | 5 of 8 | 12 of 13 | 20 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 22 of 58 | 37% | 9 of 38 | 8 of 15 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vinc Pichel | 27 of 63 | 42% | 11 of 44 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 59 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 19 of 52 | 36% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vinc Pichel | 23 of 42 | 54% | 13 of 30 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 32 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 |
| Austin Hubbard | 15 of 42 | 35% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.
Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.
Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 67 of 115 | 58% | 126 of 181 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 6:42 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 41 of 104 | 39% | 54 of 122 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 34 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 30 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 30 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 62 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 3:19 |
| Dakota Bush | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Hubbard | 67 of 115 | 58% | 32 of 76 | 10 of 12 | 25 of 27 | 49 of 91 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 21 |
| Dakota Bush | 41 of 104 | 39% | 17 of 59 | 6 of 20 | 18 of 25 | 41 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austin Hubbard | 34 of 65 | 52% | 11 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 19 of 21 | 32 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Dakota Bush | 30 of 73 | 41% | 10 of 37 | 4 of 15 | 16 of 21 | 30 of 73 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austin Hubbard | 13 of 22 | 59% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Dakota Bush | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austin Hubbard | 20 of 28 | 71% | 14 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 14 |
| Dakota Bush | 4 of 16 | 25% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard to win by decision. He notes that Bush is coming in on short notice and that Hubbard has faced tough grapplers throughout his UFC career, which should prepare him for Bush's wrestling. He believes Hubbard has superior cardio and toughness, and can survive Bush's early storm. He expects Hubbard to take over in rounds 2 and 3, possibly with a late finish. He is not surprised by the close odds but thinks Hubbard should be a bigger favorite.
Cody thinks Hubbard has proven cardio and the ability to break down wrestlers. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice and is not as good a wrestler as Hubbard's previous opponents. He expects Hubbard to stuff takedowns, pressure Bush, and win by decision or late finish. He is confident in Hubbard.
Daniel Levi picks Dakota Bush for the upset, citing his power and momentum. He notes that Bush is taking the fight on short notice, which is a concern, but believes Bush is the more dangerous fighter and could steamroll Hubbard early. Levi mentions that Hubbard is average and has not shown much, while Bush has fought real competition. He thinks the line should be closer and that Bush has a good chance if he is in shape.
Manpreet leans toward Bush by decision, citing his college wrestling background and Hubbard's history of struggling against grapplers. He believes Bush will take Hubbard down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground, despite coming in on short notice. He notes that Hubbard's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers and that Bush has never been finished.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Hubbard has faced tough wrestlers and performed well. He thinks Bush is a step down in competition and that Hubbard's cardio and pressure will be too much. He is confident in Hubbard winning.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Austin Hubbard | 0 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 36 of 43 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joe Solecki | 9 of 14 | 64% | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Austin Hubbard | 13 of 20 | 65% | 8 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Joe Solecki to win by decision. He notes Hubbard has poor takedown defense (40%) and has been taken down by everyone in the UFC. Solecki has good wrestling and is slick on the ground with transitions to the back. On the feet, Hubbard has the advantage, but Brady expects Solecki to go for takedowns early and control the fight, provided his cardio holds up. He mentions Hubbard's win over Max Rohskopf is overrated because Rohskopf had only one round of gas.
Daniel Levi picks Joe Solecki to win, citing his high-level jiu-jitsu and control on the ground. He notes that Solecki's takedowns may not be elite but he can get the fight to the mat, and Hubbard has been outgrappled before. Levi acknowledges Hubbard's improved conditioning and volume striking but believes Solecki will get takedowns early, build a lead, and survive the third round. He mentions Solecki's dominant performance against Matt Wyman as evidence.
Solecki has great wrestling and jiu-jitsu, but his cardio and ability to finish are questionable. Hubbard has good leg kicks, cardio, and takedown defense, having survived wrestlers like Marco Madsen. Solecki should grind out a decision if he can maintain top control, but Hubbard's gas tank and striking could make it close. I'm pumping the brakes on Solecki until he proves more.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard, citing his counter-grappling skills and takedown defense as seen in the Mark Madsen fight. He believes Hubbard can avoid submissions and reverse positions, eventually breaking Solecki down for a third-round TKO. He also notes Hubbard's reach advantage and that he should be the favorite.
Expert Picks (5)
Big Brady picks Vinc Pichel, citing his grappling advantage. He notes Pichel averages 3.83 takedowns per 15 minutes with 60% accuracy, and believes he will win the grappling exchanges. He is concerned about Pichel's age (38) but thinks his gas tank is fine. He predicts a decision win.
Cody picks Pichel, having already bet him. He highlights Pichel's cardio, top control, and BJJ black belt, and notes Hubbard's tendency to fade in later rounds. He believes Pichel's wrestling and pressure will be key, and mentions the value on Pichel by submission at 20-1.
Pichel is a grappler who should have success taking Hubbard down, especially by catching Hubbard's kicks. Hubbard has only fought grapplers recently and has struggled. Pichel's age (38) is a concern but he has low fight mileage. I'm picking Pichel by decision, but the moneyline at even odds is fine.
Paul picks Pichel, citing his strong top game and ability to grind out wins. He notes Pichel's slow starts but finishing strong, and Hubbard's susceptibility to takedowns. He mentions Pichel's training at Factory X and believes his cardio will hold up.
The MMA Guru picks Austin Hubbard as an underdog. He cites Hubbard's takedown defense and volume striking as keys. He notes Pichel is 38 and coming off a year layoff, while Hubbard is younger and has shown improvement. He expects Hubbard to win the later rounds via decision, possibly 29-28.
Vinc is an outlier, how does he still fight. Rafa didn't succeed at the finish.