vs
-160 +150
UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mark Madsen
3.56 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.97 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.86 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Clay Guida
2.63 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
3.0 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Mark Madsen
Moneyline
Caesars -160
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
BetWay +600
Decision
FanDuel +160
Clay Guida
Moneyline
FanDuel +150
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
BetMGM +1000
Decision
BetMGM +280
Mark Madsen - Fight History
LOSS vs Jared Gordon
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 4:42 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gordon 1 36 of 66 54% 54 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Mark Madsen 0 35 of 57 61% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gordon 36 of 66 54% 27 of 57 5 of 5 4 of 4 22 of 51 10 of 11 4 of 4
Mark Madsen 35 of 57 61% 23 of 44 12 of 13 0 of 0 16 of 37 19 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Angelo leans Gordon, reasoning that Gordon's striking is better and he can outwrestle Madsen by implementing his own game plan. He notes Madsen is one-dimensional and older, and Gordon trains with good wrestlers. He is not fully confident due to Gordon's age.

"I am going to lean Jared Gordon here and I think he could sneak something out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon by decision. He thinks Gordon has a significant striking advantage, with fast hands and high volume, and better cardio. He notes Madsen is 39 and may need to resort to wrestling, but Gordon has solid takedown defense and get-up game. Brady worries about Gordon's chin but doesn't think Madsen can knock him out.

Gordon by decision
"I'm gonna take Jared Gordon here to win this fight and this probably goes to decision so Jared Gordon by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon but is hesitant, suggesting a live bet might be better. He thinks Madsen will win the first round with wrestling but gas out, allowing Gordon to take over. He notes Gordon's durability and pace, but doesn't like the pre-fight line.

"I'm gonna take Gordon but I think you'll get the better number live"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Gordon's pace, pressure, and ability to dictate the fight will be the difference. Madsen may have early grappling success, but Gordon's BJJ background will allow him to get back to his feet and overwhelm Madsen with better striking. Expects a close fight early but Gordon to put together a better body of work in the last two rounds and win by decision.

"I believe that Gordon's Pace pressure and ability to dictate the pace will be the Difference Maker in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul leans Madsen as a dog, having taken him at +167. He thinks Madsen's wrestling pedigree will allow him to get takedowns and control early rounds. He acknowledges Madsen's cardio issues but believes he can win the first two rounds. He notes Gordon isn't a potent finisher.

"I took plus 167 took a shot on Madson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon, calling Mark Madsen awful. He thinks Gordon is underrated and showed improved striking against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He believes Gordon is more versatile and better on the feet, and that Madsen has no offensive grappling or striking threat.

"I think Mark madson's awful I think he's awful I really do... I think Jared Gordon's pretty underrated"
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:05 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 1 33 of 49 67% 73 of 96 2 of 6 33% 2 0 9:31
Mark Madsen 0 15 of 30 50% 50 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 1 of 1 100% 27 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:22
Mark Madsen 0 5 of 10 50% 18 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
2 Grant Dawson 0 6 of 12 50% 13 of 21 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:22
Mark Madsen 0 4 of 7 57% 26 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Grant Dawson 1 26 of 36 72% 33 of 44 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:47
Mark Madsen 0 6 of 13 46% 6 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 33 of 49 67% 17 of 31 5 of 7 11 of 11 25 of 37 1 of 1 7 of 11
Mark Madsen 15 of 30 50% 11 of 26 3 of 3 1 of 1 11 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mark Madsen 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6
2 Grant Dawson 6 of 12 50% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 7
Mark Madsen 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Grant Dawson 26 of 36 72% 13 of 21 4 of 6 9 of 9 22 of 31 1 of 1 3 of 4
Mark Madsen 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

Angelo picks Dawson, citing his better overall striking and wrestling. He notes Madsen is an Olympic wrestler but doesn't always use it, and Dawson has takedowns in every fight. He thinks the extra week of preparation helps Dawson. He does not bet the moneyline but considers a prop on Madsen +3.5.

I am going to check out the props because frankly I think the BET to make is Mark Matson plus three and a half
"I'm gonna go with Dawson here you know last week I liked Mark Madsen this week that extra week I do think that matters"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady believes the line is off and Madsen is being disrespected. He highlights Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling, improved striking, and cardio, while Dawson is hittable and coming in on short notice. He expects Madsen to keep the fight on the feet, stuff takedowns, and out-strike Dawson to win a decision.

Madsen wins by decision
"I'm gonna pick the the pretty big upset here with Mark Madison I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, but is on the fence. He notes that Dawson has struggled against strong grapplers, like Leo Santos (close fight) and Ricky Glenn (gassed and got a 10-8 round). Madsen has superior wrestling and could be the one getting takedowns and grinding on Dawson. Cody points out that Madsen's fight against Vince Pichel was close, and he thinks Madsen could win a tight decision by mixing in takedowns and using his jab and leg kicks, as he did against Clay Guida. He sees this as a dog or pass spot.

"for the purposes of this show right now I'll take the underdog Mark Matson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Daniel Levi picks Mark Madsen as an underdog, citing his top control and ability to neutralize Grant Dawson's guard pulls. He notes Dawson's suspect gas tank in later rounds, as seen in the Rick Glenn fight, and believes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and slightly better striking pop can secure a win. He is not super convicted but likes the dog odds.

At plus 195/200, willing to roll the dice
"I'm gonna go with Marco Madsen to get the upset here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

The host favors Dawson due to youth, athleticism, and superior grappling. He notes Madsen's improved striking but believes Dawson's wrestling and BJJ will be too much. He expects Dawson to mix output on the feet with grappling, potentially getting a late finish or decision. He sees Dawson as parlay material at -230.

Dawson by decision; possible late finish
"give me Grant Dawson Dawson by decision I wouldn't rule out a late finish for him either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul is also on the fence but picks Madsen for the show. He argues that Madsen could be live because MMA judging often rewards control time, as seen in the Pichel fight where Madsen got the decision despite being outstruck. In the Apex, Madsen can lay on top and tick away the clock. He thinks Dawson should win, but Madsen's style could lead to a close decision. Paul considers it a dog or pass spot.

"I'm still kind of on the fence but for the purposes of this show right now I'll take the underdog Mark Matson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Grant Dawson

The MMA Guru picks Grant Dawson, citing Madsen's close wins and age (38). He believes Dawson's unorthodox striking and kicks will give Madsen problems, and that Madsen won't be able to take him down. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting the age difference favors the younger fighter.

29-28 decision
"I'm gonna go with Grant Dawson here... 29-28 close decision he gets it done as the fight goes on."
WIN vs Vinc Pichel
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 68 of 123 55% 88 of 144 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Vinc Pichel 0 39 of 87 44% 57 of 110 3 of 3 100% 0 0 5:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 24 of 50 48% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Vinc Pichel 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
2 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 41 53% 25 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:29
Vinc Pichel 0 13 of 34 38% 15 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 32 68% 39 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Vinc Pichel 0 8 of 15 53% 24 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 68 of 123 55% 32 of 78 21 of 30 15 of 15 53 of 106 10 of 11 5 of 6
Vinc Pichel 39 of 87 44% 27 of 75 1 of 1 11 of 11 32 of 78 3 of 5 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 24 of 50 48% 7 of 25 8 of 16 9 of 9 21 of 46 2 of 3 1 of 1
Vinc Pichel 18 of 38 47% 9 of 29 0 of 0 9 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 22 of 41 53% 11 of 29 7 of 8 4 of 4 18 of 37 4 of 4 0 of 0
Vinc Pichel 13 of 34 38% 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 31 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Mark Madsen 22 of 32 68% 14 of 24 6 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 23 4 of 4 4 of 5
Vinc Pichel 8 of 15 53% 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 9 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Angelo picks Mark Madsen despite being surprised that Pichel is the favorite. He notes Madsen's Olympic wrestling background and improved striking, as shown in his win over Clay Guida. He expects Madsen to use takedowns similar to Gregor Gillespie's approach, though he acknowledges Pichel's movement could trouble Madsen on the feet.

Moneyline bet on Madsen; odds are confusing but he likes the bet.
"i like mark here i think the odds uh are a little wide they're definitely confusing me i'm gonna go moneyline bet on mark matson"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen to win a close decision, likely split. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling should dominate early rounds, but his cardio is a concern as he faded in the third round against Austin Hubbard. Pichel has terrible takedown defense (25%) but is tough and wins the third round. Brady thinks Madsen edges the second round to win.

"give me mark mattis matson to win this one i think it's probably going to be a split as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vinc Pichel

Cody is on the same page as Paul, picking Pichel. He notes Madsen's wrestling is explosive but lacks top control, leading to gassing. Cody points out Madsen's susceptibility to leg kicks and Pichel's nasty low kick. He thinks Pichel's chaos and pressure will break Madsen, similar to how he broke Austin Hubbard. Cody expects Pichel to win, possibly by decision but hopes for a third-round finish.

"yeah i'm largely on the exact same page as you i got vince michelle pre-fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Levi believes Mark Madsen is improving with each fight, showing better cardio and striking. He notes Vinc Pichel's takedown defense is not great and that Madsen's wrestling should be a big advantage. He thinks the fight should be a pick'em, so at plus money he is taking Madsen to win a decision by securing the first two rounds.

"i took mark madsen at plus 118 i beat that line"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vinc Pichel

I think Pichel is the much better striker and has improving wrestling. Madsen needs to get an early finish or he will fade. Pichel has a good gas tank and will wear on Madsen. I see Pichel finding a knockout later in the fight, likely in the third round.

"I do think he goes out there and has a solid enough performance here against Madsen puts his strikes together finds that knockout probably later in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vinc Pichel

Paul is confident in Pichel, having already bet him at -122 and -127. He notes Madsen's poor cardio and inability to hold opponents down, as seen against Clay Guida. Paul emphasizes Pichel's leg kicks targeting Madsen's lead leg, which Madsen leaves exposed. He predicts Pichel wins by TKO in round 3, as Madsen fades. Paul also likes Pichel round 3 at +1600.

Pichel round 3 +1600, Pichel by TKO
"i think vince michelle wins i've got him on the money line already i'm going to be adding a little bit more"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Vinc Pichel

The MMA Guru picks Vinc Pichel, unimpressed by Mark Madsen's grappling. He expects Madsen to win the first round via takedowns but fade, with Pichel's cardio and ability to get up leading to a 29-28 decision. He notes that Pichel beat Austin Hubbard more convincingly than Madsen did.

"i'm gonna go vince paquel over mark madsen i ain't impressed by mark madsen"
WIN vs Clay Guida
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · Mar 07, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 15 of 58 25% 20 of 65 8 of 12 66% 0 0 8:01
Austin Hubbard 0 41 of 75 54% 45 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 0 of 9 0% 2 of 12 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:41
Austin Hubbard 0 6 of 14 42% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mark Madsen 0 9 of 21 42% 11 of 23 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:41
Austin Hubbard 0 8 of 22 36% 9 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mark Madsen 0 6 of 28 21% 7 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:39
Austin Hubbard 0 27 of 39 69% 28 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 15 of 58 25% 14 of 57 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 42 3 of 5 7 of 11
Austin Hubbard 41 of 75 54% 25 of 48 8 of 14 8 of 13 37 of 67 4 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 0 of 9 0% 0 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 3
Austin Hubbard 6 of 14 42% 3 of 6 1 of 3 2 of 5 5 of 11 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 1 of 2 6 of 7
Austin Hubbard 8 of 22 36% 3 of 13 3 of 5 2 of 4 8 of 21 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 6 of 28 21% 5 of 27 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 1
Austin Hubbard 27 of 39 69% 19 of 29 4 of 6 4 of 4 24 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Daniel slightly leans Madsen, acknowledging his wrestling advantage and Olympic credentials. However, he notes that Madsen hasn't been truly challenged and that Hubbard has earned his way with legitimate wins. He thinks Madsen will win a close decision but from a betting perspective it's a pass.

Daniel says from a betting perspective it's a dog or pass.
"I'll pick him for a win but from a betting perspective dog or pass."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Hubbard has decent wrestling to neutralize Madsen's Olympic-level takedowns. He has better striking and kicks, and his cardio should hold up. Madsen's gas tank is a question after 7.5 minutes. Hubbard can win by decision or late finish. The host likes the value at +190 and may bet 0.75 units.

Bet 0.75 units at +190 or better.
"I like my chances at the +190... I'm gonna go with Hubbard by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen, an Olympic medalist wrestler with a 9-0 record. He believes Madsen will rag doll Austin Hubbard, who is on a two-fight losing streak, and finish him in the first round. He mentions Madsen's age (35) and 'old man anger' as motivating factors.

first round finish
"mark Madison's gonna rag doll him and finish him in the first round"
TKO (punches) R1 1:12 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Sep 28, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 22 of 29 75% 24 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Danilo Belluardo 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 22 of 29 75% 24 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:51
Danilo Belluardo 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 26
Danilo Belluardo 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 22 of 29 75% 22 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 26
Danilo Belluardo 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida - Fight History
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Submission (armbar) R1 3:41 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 7 of 15 46% 14 of 28 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 5 of 13 38% 3 of 9 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 7 of 15 46% 5 of 10 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Angelo picks Chase Hooper, arguing that Clay Guida is 42 years old and past his prime, while Hooper's grappling and evolving striking will be too much. He mentions Hooper already submitted Guida in their first fight with a calf slicer. Angelo dismisses the idea that Hooper can't win a kickboxing match, stating Guida is too old and worn down. He is confident Hooper will win again.

"Chase Hooper absolutely smokes here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Hooper, citing his youth, jiu-jitsu, and improvement. He notes Guida's age and submission losses. He expects Hooper to win inside the distance, likely by submission.

Hooper inside the distance
"Chase Hooper inside the distance... whether it be submission or TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Connor is very confident in Hooper, stating that Guida can no longer wrestle or strike effectively. He notes that Hooper is much larger with long arms, and that if Guida tries to wrestle, Hooper will submit him. Connor points out that Guida's style has been ineffective for years and that Hooper's modern technique will be too much.

"This is just a layup for chase. Hooper. Yeah, it should be right really should be."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Daniel believes Hooper has matured and can beat Guida anywhere. He references their previous grappling match where Hooper submitted Guida. He expects Hooper to finish Guida, possibly by submission.

by submission
"I think he's going to come out here and finish Klay Guida."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Hooper should absolutely smash Clay Guida, who is notorious for coming up short against submission specialists early, just as Charles Oliveira and Jim Miller were able to do. I expect Hooper to submit Guida within the first five minutes.

submission within first round
"I expect Hooper to submit quido within the first five minutes"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Hooper, emphasizing his grappling and physical advantages. He notes Guida's age and lack of offense. He expects Hooper to submit Guida, but suggests inside the distance is safer.

Hooper by submission (small bet)
"Chase Hooper by submission is somewhat playable."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, noting Guida's age (42) and tendency to make grappling mistakes that lead to submissions. He thinks Hooper's reach, youth, and improved striking will allow him to dominate. He sees Hooper latching up a guillotine or getting dominant position. He does not see Guida having the power to knock Hooper out.

Chase Hooper wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm going with Chase Hooper um getting this one done against Klay Guida"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Zane agrees, confidently picking Hooper. He notes that Guida is ancient and cannot wrestle or strike anymore, while Hooper is a young, skilled grappler with a size advantage. Zane believes Hooper will either outstrike Guida or submit him if Guida tries to wrestle.

"Jay super is gonna beat him using modern technology."
LOSS vs Joaquim Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joaquim Silva 0 43 of 134 32% 63 of 155 2 of 11 18% 0 0 4:23
Clay Guida 0 46 of 91 50% 85 of 141 2 of 3 66% 2 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joaquim Silva 0 18 of 64 28% 19 of 66 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:29
Clay Guida 0 15 of 32 46% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
2 Joaquim Silva 0 14 of 33 42% 29 of 48 2 of 7 28% 0 0 3:19
Clay Guida 0 15 of 20 75% 26 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
3 Joaquim Silva 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Clay Guida 0 16 of 39 41% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joaquim Silva 43 of 134 32% 19 of 103 14 of 20 10 of 11 36 of 127 7 of 7 0 of 0
Clay Guida 46 of 91 50% 33 of 72 9 of 15 4 of 4 28 of 64 15 of 19 3 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joaquim Silva 18 of 64 28% 6 of 51 6 of 6 6 of 7 17 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 32 46% 13 of 30 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 20 4 of 5 3 of 7
2 Joaquim Silva 14 of 33 42% 9 of 26 5 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 30 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 15 of 20 75% 12 of 17 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 9 8 of 10 0 of 1
3 Joaquim Silva 11 of 37 29% 4 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 34 3 of 3 0 of 0
Clay Guida 16 of 39 41% 8 of 25 6 of 12 2 of 2 13 of 35 3 of 4 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Cody picks Silva, echoing that Guida is old and Silva has power. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is okay and his cardio is decent. He notes Guida's only path is takedowns and Silva can stuff them. He also mentions a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a possible sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"wae Sila would be the pick I suppose for whatever that's worth"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Lucrative James picks Joaquim Silva, noting that Silva showed enough in his last fight to be favored. He believes Silva can get a submission, possibly a guillotine when Clay Guida shoots for a takedown. However, he is not betting at -350 due to Guida's grappling ability and durability.

Silva inside the distance, possibly by submission
"I definitely feel like he could get a submission Guillotine here when Clay is shooting in on a Tak down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Silva is a powerful striker with a BJJ black belt, and he should be able to land big shots on Guida if he lets his hands go. Guida relies on movement and cardio, but Silva's power and pressure could lead to a finish. However, if the fight reaches the third round, Guida's cardio could make things competitive. Silva is expected to win, possibly by finish.

finish predicted, but not confident inside distance
"I'm going to go waim Silva I think he gets the Finish over Guida but if this fight reaches the third round things could get a little bit shaky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

Paul picks Silva but doesn't love the money line. He thinks Silva's takedown defense is decent and his cardio is good enough to outlast Guida. He notes Guida is almost 42 and slowing down, and if Guida can't get takedowns early, he'll get boxed up. He considers a Clay Guida by split decision prop as a sprinkle.

considering Clay Guida by split decision prop
"the pick's got to be Yim Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Joaquim Silva

The MMA Guru picks Joaquim Silva, citing his power, jiujitsu, and finishing ability. He notes that Clay Guida tends to lose to fighters with finishing ability and that Silva is dangerous. He believes Silva's technical skills outweigh Guida's grit and expects Silva to win.

"I got to go Joaquim Silva... dangerous powerful good jiujitsu... if you have finishing ability you beat Clay Guida."
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 63 of 252 25% 63 of 252 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 141 of 287 49% 143 of 289 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 23 of 92 25% 23 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 34 of 89 38% 34 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 21 of 88 23% 21 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 65 of 110 59% 65 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 19 of 72 26% 19 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 42 of 88 47% 44 of 90 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 63 of 252 25% 49 of 227 4 of 12 10 of 13 63 of 252 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 141 of 287 49% 130 of 269 5 of 12 6 of 6 138 of 284 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 23 of 92 25% 16 of 82 2 of 4 5 of 6 23 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 34 of 89 38% 29 of 81 1 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 21 of 88 23% 17 of 80 1 of 4 3 of 4 21 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 65 of 110 59% 63 of 107 2 of 3 0 of 0 62 of 107 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 19 of 72 26% 16 of 65 1 of 4 2 of 3 19 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Clay Guida 42 of 88 47% 38 of 81 2 of 5 2 of 2 42 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Clay Guida
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-260), Guida (+220)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the lightweights, as eternally youthful 41-year-old Guida (38-22, 18-16 UFC) looks to go on his first win streak in six years. Standing in his way will be Combate Americas vet Garcia (14-3, 3-3 UFC), who also happens to be 13 years his junior. Whether this is a passing of the torch fight or proof that the now short-haired Guida very much still has it, they have 15 minutes to determine this while referee Dwayne Bess watches on. There is no plan for a bump of fists as the crowd goes crazy for Guida, and he starts off like he always does, with herky-jerky movement and plenty of energy. The two fighters meet right in the middle, throwing hands, and Guida gets the better of the exchange. Guida ducks a huge overhand right to stick him with a right, and he considers a takedown to mix things up. Garcia scores a right hand, and Guida slips and backs off to take a low kick. Guida returns fire with a leg kick, and Garcia quickly covers with a right over the top. Guida chains a low kick into punches, and Garcia backs him off with solid straight right hands. Guida circles along the outside, and he evades a one-two that soars at him. Guida lands a left and moves, and he swipes out with a left hand as Garcia reaches him with the right. Garcia rushes forward with a left to the ribs, and he misses the mark swinging a few hooks. Guida absorbs a flush leg kick at the end of a combination, and he gets tagged with a solid right to follow. They meet with jabs, and “Gifted” bestows Guida with a gift of a left hook. Guida bobs and moves in, and Garcia marks him up with five or six jabs in rapid succession. Guida’s nose is showing some damage from the punches, and Garcia clubs him with a right that lands on the jaw. Garcia counters with a sharp elbow, and Guida is eating shots every time he initiates his offense. Guida lands two punches coming in, and Garcia snaps out a jab at the end. Garcia’s jabs begin to sting Guida and make him smile, and the round ends after a pair of missed haymakers from both fighters.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Guida races out of his corner to start off firing, and he sticks several jabs in then face of his opponent. Guida gets rocked with an uppercut, and he shakes it out and slaps down with a leg kick. Guida steps in with a knee, and he closes in on the clinch but does not change levels. A few punches from “The Carpenter” bounce off the guard, while a low kick does score. Garcia is timing uppercuts when Guida ducks or bobs, and chants for “Let’s go Guida” energize him slightly but do not change his strategy. Garcia nails his foe with a few right hands, and Guida catches him with a clean right in response before ducking into a single. Garcia stands him up and meets him with an elbow, and his jab is doing work. Guida shakes his head repeatedly when absorbing this blow again and again, but he cannot seem to get around it as his face bleeds out of multiple cuts. Guida checks a kick but gets tagged up top, and they trade punches with Garcia getting the better of them. Garcia knocks Guida’s mouthpiece out, and the veteran goes to retrieve it and continues to work towards Garcia. Guida does land a solid right, but Garcia is doing work with punches in bunches. Guida takes his foot off the gas to stop walking into so many jabs, and he adjusts his approach by not throwing as much to get countered. Guida punches his way into range, but Garcia reaches him with a few straight rights. Garcia rings Guida’s bell with a pair of straight shots, and Guida takes them on the chin and keeps coming forward. Garcia paws out with jabs to keep Guida at bay, and he allows Guida to throw with impunity as he tags him with right hands. A big right from Garcia ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Like usual, Guida engages face-first in his approach. Garcia counters with a right over the top, and Guida counters with a head kick and takedown effort. Garcia shuts it down and gets popped with a few left hooks. “Gifted” intercepts Guida with an uppercut as Guida changes levels, and he lumbers forward throwing shots that Guida dodges. Guida connects with a left, a right and a low kick, and Garcia backpedals. Garcia loads up on an elbow that whizzes past Guida’s head, and he gets caught with a left as Guida is moving constantly. Garcia darts in with a left hook, and Guida ties him up and eats a few body shots before getting shoved back. Guida lands three punches up top as Garcia backs off with a right, and they trade punches while standing right in front of one another. Guida launches a head kick that gets blocked, and Garcia shells up and makes him pay with a few uppercuts. Garcia jabs to the body, and he swings and misses with a high kick in hopes of catching Guida barreling down on him. Guida gets his chin checked by a powerful right hook at the end of a string of punches, and the veteran shake it off and does not falter. Guida walks into a right hand as he tries to push the action, and he guard against a head kick. Garcia chains a few punches together, and he rocks Guida with a right hand as Guida staggers to the side. Garcia bloodies Guida up further as he drives jab after piston-like jab into the face, and Guida checks the sight of his blood and shoots for a takedown. Garcia escapes the grip and drills Guida with two more punches. Garcia leaps in the air with a knee, and Guida is out of the way but also out of time. The last round comes to an end, and the lightweights hug it out after 15 minutes of striking. When the dust settles, Guida takes his gloves off and holds them to earn an interview with Daniel Cormier. He does not hang them up, instead saying he will keep fighting, and asks to trade gloves with his opponent. This is the second fighter to do a retirement fake-out tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Clay Guida via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Angelo picks Rafa García, expecting him to get takedowns and win striking exchanges. He notes García's grappling and power, but also his cardio issues. He is not betting on García at -190 because the odds are too high, especially against a relentless pressure fighter like Guida who could expose cardio issues.

"half is going to be the pick I'm not gonna bet on him I just don't like those odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García to win by first-round submission. He highlights García's improved cardio and grappling since moving to Elevation Fight Team, and notes Guida's age (41) and history of being submitted (11 times). He expects García to take Guida down and submit him early.

first round submission
"I like Garcia to win this fight by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Cody sees Garcia as a younger, better version of Guida with pressure wrestling and improving skills. He thinks Garcia's clinch strength and cardio will overwhelm the aging Guida. He acknowledges the line is steep but believes Garcia wins.

"gotta go with Rafa Garcia"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Connor also picks Garcia, agreeing that Guida's style is not threatening enough to stop Garcia's forward pressure. He notes that Guida is more evasive than aggressive at this stage, and Garcia's willingness to keep working even when takedowns fail will be key. Connor believes Garcia's youth and activity will overwhelm the 41-year-old Guida.

"I got to take Rafa Garcia."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Garcia is younger and entering his prime, while Guida's recent wins are over older or retiring fighters. Garcia's boxing and forward pressure should outwork Guida, though Guida's cardio and grinding style could make it close. Garcia's ability to mix in takedowns and maintain pace should earn him a decision victory.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I expect him to land the better and more significant strikes in the early goings of this fight maybe not put clay Guido away but do enough to win a decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul is intrigued by Guida's plus money, noting Guida's takedown defense (only 2 takedowns allowed in 14 fights) and the possibility of a close decision. He thinks Garcia's takedown totals may be inflated and that Guida could grind out a win. He placed a small bet on Guida.

Small bet on Guida moneyline; also considering Guida by split decision prop
"I'm leaning towards clay just because of the money line we'll see where the where it goes I added a little bit of plus 210 really really small little play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

The MMA Guru picks Rafa García, citing his youth (28), well-rounded skills, and potential to finish the 41-year-old Guida. He believes García will corner Guida and put an end to his recent string of close decisions. He notes Guida's durability and movement but thinks García's prime and power will prevail.

García wins by finish (KO/TKO)
"Rafa Garcia gets the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia, noting that Guida's recent win over Scott Holtzman was unimpressive and that Garcia's relentless pressure and wrestling will be too much. He acknowledges that Garcia can struggle if his takedowns are stuffed, but believes Guida's lack of offensive pressure and age will allow Garcia to implement his game plan. Zane expects Garcia to push forward, land punches, and mix in takedowns.

Garcia opened -250/-230, now -245; Guida opened +200, now +213. Zane does not mention betting.
"I'm picking Rafa Garcia. This is not a hard fight to pick."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 66 of 183 36% 95 of 215 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:35
Scott Holtzman 0 65 of 166 39% 77 of 178 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 23 of 79 29% 23 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Scott Holtzman 0 18 of 63 28% 19 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Clay Guida 0 17 of 40 42% 29 of 53 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:55
Scott Holtzman 0 22 of 42 52% 32 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Clay Guida 0 26 of 64 40% 43 of 83 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:40
Scott Holtzman 0 25 of 61 40% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 66 of 183 36% 30 of 134 23 of 36 13 of 13 58 of 173 5 of 7 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 65 of 166 39% 55 of 146 5 of 13 5 of 7 60 of 160 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 23 of 79 29% 10 of 59 5 of 12 8 of 8 22 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 18 of 63 28% 11 of 48 3 of 9 4 of 6 18 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 17 of 40 42% 9 of 31 5 of 6 3 of 3 17 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Scott Holtzman 22 of 42 52% 21 of 40 0 of 1 1 of 1 19 of 38 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Clay Guida 26 of 64 40% 11 of 44 13 of 18 2 of 2 19 of 56 4 of 5 3 of 3
Scott Holtzman 25 of 61 40% 23 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0 23 of 59 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Angelo picks Scott Holtzman, believing he will be a step ahead in striking and should be able to defend Clay Guida's takedown attempts. He notes Guida is a grinder who will come forward with volume but lacks one-punch KO power or sudden submissions, giving Holtzman time to settle into a rhythm. He expects a fun fight and thinks Holtzman will dominate the striking.

"Scott Holtzman is absolutely the pick but I think we all love clay Guida right we're all going to be rooting for him here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Big Brady picks Holtzman, citing his striking advantage and ability to get back up from takedowns. He notes Guida is older (41) and has more fights, but expresses concern about Holtzman's layoff (1 year 7 months) and age (39). He expects Holtzman to win a dominant decision unless he shows decline.

Holtzman wins by decision
"give me Scott Holtzman to go out there and win a decision I think he makes it look pretty dominant"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody picks Guida, citing Holtzman's takedown defense issues and Guida's wrestling. He notes Holtzman's inactivity and questions his motivation. He sees Guida as a live dog.

"I gotta go put that plus 135 clay Guida could be the PRP pick on a 15 fight card"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Connor picks Scott Holtzman, agreeing that Holtzman will keep fighting back from takedowns and create scrambles, eventually hurting Guida. He notes that Guida could get submitted or run into a knee, but Holtzman's ability to keep giving himself chances is the deciding factor.

"If he keeps giving himself chances to hurt, Clay Guida at some point, I have to assume that you'll hurt him bad enough to win."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Daniel Levi leans Holtzman but is unsure. He notes Holtzman's durability and power, but questions his motivation at 39 and after two KO losses. He thinks it's a dog-or-pass situation and will likely not bet.

"I think it might be a dog or pass situation to be quite Frank with you but I'm gonna lean I'm gonna lean Scotty but I'm I'm not I'm not sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The host is confident in Holtzman, calling the minus 150 line a steal. He thinks Holtzman's takedown defense and power will be too much for the aging Guida. He expects Holtzman to finish Guida inside the distance, noting that Guida has no finishing threat. He believes the year-and-a-half layoff and two-fight losing streak have created recency bias against Holtzman.

Holtzman inside the distance
"I love the minus 150 line on him I think that's a bit of a steal and I think there's a little bit of recency bias there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul picks Guida, noting Holtzman's long layoff and uncertainty. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pace could be enough. He sees it as a dog or pass situation.

"I'm thinking clay as well and Clay has this ability with refs or with the judges too it's just like you know he does a lot of crazy motion and stuff and doesn't really throw some strikes but it's like …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

The MMA Guru picks Scott Holtzman, citing his power advantage and size for the division. He notes Holtzman has beaten tough guys like Jim Miller and Alan Patrick, while Guida's recent wins haven't aged well. He predicts Holtzman will stuff a takedown and land big elbows for a finish.

Holtzman by TKO (elbows)
"I'm going with Scott Holtzman over cleguider"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Scott Holtzman

Zane picks Scott Holtzman hesitantly, reasoning that Holtzman is younger and will keep creating scrambles, giving himself chances to hurt Guida. He notes that Guida is old and the tread is off the tires, but Holtzman is susceptible to wrestlers and could get submitted.

"I think he's winning his wins. His hit right now. He is beating fighters who have lost. Whatever made them good at any point has been taken from them."
LOSS vs Claudio Puelles
Submission (kneebar) R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Apr 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Claudio Puelles 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 6 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:10
Clay Guida 0 1 of 3 33% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Claudio Puelles 3 of 4 75% 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Clay Guida 1 of 3 33% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Angelo picks Claudio Puelles to win a decision via grappling. He notes Puelles is young, hungry, and dangerous, and that it's easier to finish a bad takedown than defend one. He says Puelles will entertain striking but ultimately push a grappling game plan, get takedowns, and ride out a decision. He mentions Clay Guida only has two wins in 35 UFC fights against opponents who took him down.

"i like claudio playlist to ride out a decision win and he's going to do so with the grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Claudio Puelles

Big Brady picks Claudio Puelles to win by submission, citing his youth, size advantage, and BJJ brown belt. He notes that Puelles is 15 years younger and has a four-inch height and two-inch reach advantage. He thinks Puelles can submit Guida if the fight goes to the mat, especially since Guida has been submitted 10 times. However, he acknowledges Guida's cardio advantage and that the fight is close, so he won't bet on it.

Win by submission, first round submission
"I'm actually going to take uh poyus here to win... I'm going to take him to win by submission at some point... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Cody leans Guida, citing Puelles' poor takedown defense and Guida's grinding style. He notes Puelles is young and improving but has been taken down by non-wrestlers. Guida's submission defense has improved, and his cardio should wear on Puelles. He suggests live betting Guida after the first round.

Live betting opportunity after round 1
"the official pick will ever so slightly be with uh the carpenter clay guido"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The host picks Clay Guida to win, betting 1.07 units at -107. He expects the fight to go the full 15 minutes with Guida getting his hand raised. He also includes Guida in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault.

Included in a parlay with Andrade and Barriault. Also bet on over 2.5 rounds in the totals parlay.
"i'm going clay guido 1.07 units at -107 so pretty much just to win one unit there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Guida's durability and activity. He thinks Guida's wrestling and pressure will be key, and that Puelles may tire. He mentions Guida's recent grappling improvements and suggests a decision win or live betting opportunity.

Clay by decision; live betting
"clay clay by decision could be uh good looks and clay in the live market could even could even be better"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida, expressing shock that 70% of tipsters are picking Puelles. He argues Puelles is mediocre and had a tough fight with Chris Gruetzemacher. He highlights Guida's submission defense from Quintet and his wrestling pace that prevents submissions. He believes Puelles has no power or technique on the feet to worry Guida. He predicts Guida will grind out a win, possibly a third-round finish, and notes Guida's recent activity. He hopes the public money on Puelles will make Guida an underdog.

third round finish possible
"i am going to go have clay guida here it is a shock to me it is an absolute shock to me that seventy percent of topology are picking claudio poelas here"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:21 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Aldo · Dec 04, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 18 of 50 36% 50 of 87 2 of 7 28% 1 0 2:09
Leonardo Santos 1 41 of 60 68% 65 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 8 of 30 26% 34 of 57 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:11
Leonardo Santos 1 39 of 58 67% 63 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:01
2 Clay Guida 0 10 of 20 50% 16 of 30 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:58
Leonardo Santos 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 18 of 50 36% 8 of 39 6 of 6 4 of 5 7 of 38 0 of 1 11 of 11
Leonardo Santos 41 of 60 68% 22 of 39 17 of 19 2 of 2 13 of 21 16 of 23 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 8 of 30 26% 6 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 26 0 of 1 3 of 3
Leonardo Santos 39 of 58 67% 21 of 38 16 of 18 2 of 2 11 of 19 16 of 23 12 of 16
2 Clay Guida 10 of 20 50% 2 of 12 5 of 5 3 of 3 2 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 8
Leonardo Santos 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Angelo picks Leonardo Santos, though his heart says Guida. He notes Santos has better jiu-jitsu, power, and striking, but Guida's pace could be an issue. Angelo thinks Santos is the smarter pick but the odds are crazy.

"my heart is saying clay guida but my brain is saying leonardo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Big Brady picks Leonardo Santos to win by first-round submission. He notes Santos has a massive height and reach advantage, superior striking, and is a BJJ black belt. He points out that Clay Guida has been submitted 10 times and is often finished. However, he warns that Santos has poor cardio (about 1.5 rounds), so if he doesn't finish early, Guida could take over. Brady is confident Santos will finish early, likely by submission after hurting Guida on the feet.

first round submission
"give me santa's win... first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Cody also picks Santos but is not confident, citing Santos's age (41) and recent poor performances. He thinks Santos has the skills to win but his gas tank is a concern. Cody notes that Guida has a history of getting submitted and that Santos could catch him, but he's not sold on the -180 price.

"i honestly think santos will probably out him i would strike him on the better strikes i strike him on the cleaner stuff but yeah volume could be clay guide is in your right in a small octagon where clay …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Daniel Levi picks Leonardo Santos to win by submission, specifically a guillotine or rear-naked choke. He notes Santos's length, underrated hands, calf kicks, and elite jiu-jitsu, and points out that Guida has been submitted multiple times. He is concerned about Santos gassing but believes Santos can finish early if he gets Guida to the mat.

submission (guillotine or rear-naked choke)
"Let me go leo santos via either guillotine or rear naked choke submission here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Jacob picks Clay Guida, citing his pressure and cardio. He notes Santos is a defensive striker and Guida can pressure him against the fence. Jacob thinks Guida's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are good enough to avoid submissions, and he will win a typical Guida fight.

"i like quickly guided to win this fight the way that he always wins his fights"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

I like Santos. He is the better striker with power and range, and he has good takedown defense. Guida's pace is not what it used to be, and he struggles against fighters who can keep him at distance. Santos can finish on the feet or via submission. I like Santos inside the distance at plus 200 and Santos by submission at plus 315.

Santos inside the distance +200, Santos by submission +315
"i like santos santos sub census inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Leonardo Santos

Paul picks Santos but with low confidence, noting Santos's skill advantage but poor gas tank and lack of volume. He thinks Santos should win if he uses his reach and grappling, but worries about his cardio and tendency to underperform. Paul mentions that Santos by submission is tempting but he can't trust him to get the fight to the mat.

Santos by submission +375
"pick is santos i mean if santo if i knew santos was gonna attack the wrestling and try to get this fight to the mat i would be a lot more um aggressive with with the play"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

The MMA Guru picks Clay Guida to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Santos to win the first round with striking and takedown defense, but Guida's cardio will take over in the second and third. Guida will secure takedowns and land ground strikes as Santos fades, winning the last two rounds.

"i'm going to go of clay guida 29-28 unanimous decision"
LOSS vs Mark Madsen
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mark Madsen 0 72 of 212 33% 72 of 212 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 98 of 192 51% 101 of 198 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mark Madsen 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 32 of 52 61% 35 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
2 Mark Madsen 0 26 of 72 36% 26 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 31 of 58 53% 31 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
3 Mark Madsen 0 31 of 90 34% 31 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Clay Guida 0 35 of 82 42% 35 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mark Madsen 72 of 212 33% 30 of 161 5 of 13 37 of 38 64 of 203 8 of 9 0 of 0
Clay Guida 98 of 192 51% 70 of 159 17 of 21 11 of 12 80 of 172 18 of 20 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mark Madsen 15 of 50 30% 7 of 38 0 of 3 8 of 9 13 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 32 of 52 61% 17 of 33 12 of 15 3 of 4 18 of 36 14 of 16 0 of 0
2 Mark Madsen 26 of 72 36% 10 of 56 3 of 3 13 of 13 22 of 67 4 of 5 0 of 0
Clay Guida 31 of 58 53% 24 of 50 3 of 4 4 of 4 29 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mark Madsen 31 of 90 34% 13 of 67 2 of 7 16 of 16 29 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Clay Guida 35 of 82 42% 29 of 76 2 of 2 4 of 4 33 of 80 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Clay Guida 0 58 of 126 46% 70 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:03
Michael Johnson 0 49 of 89 55% 65 of 107 3 of 7 42% 1 0 6:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Clay Guida 0 31 of 66 46% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Michael Johnson 0 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:24
2 Clay Guida 0 14 of 27 51% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Michael Johnson 0 13 of 24 54% 21 of 32 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:50
3 Clay Guida 0 13 of 33 39% 20 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:26
Michael Johnson 0 7 of 21 33% 13 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Clay Guida 58 of 126 46% 52 of 113 5 of 12 1 of 1 47 of 115 6 of 6 5 of 5
Michael Johnson 49 of 89 55% 31 of 71 12 of 12 6 of 6 32 of 72 14 of 14 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Clay Guida 31 of 66 46% 26 of 55 4 of 10 1 of 1 27 of 62 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Johnson 29 of 44 65% 21 of 36 5 of 5 3 of 3 22 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
2 Clay Guida 14 of 27 51% 13 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 23 2 of 2 2 of 2
Michael Johnson 13 of 24 54% 4 of 15 6 of 6 3 of 3 5 of 16 7 of 7 1 of 1
3 Clay Guida 13 of 33 39% 13 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 3 of 3
Michael Johnson 7 of 21 33% 6 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 19 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Big Brady picks Michael Johnson but with low trust, calling him one of the least trustworthy fighters. He notes Johnson's massive striking advantage and excellent takedown defense, but warns that Johnson often loses as a big favorite. He expects Johnson to win a decision by outpointing Guida, but advises leaving him off parlays.

betting advice: leave off parlays
"You've got to go with Johnson here, I think he's one of the least trustworthy fighters I've ever seen... I'm gonna say Johnson wins by decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Daniel Levi picks Michael Johnson but is hesitant due to Johnson's history of pulling stunts and losing fights he should win. He acknowledges Johnson's speed and better competition, but worries about his takedown defense and submission vulnerability. He suggests live betting Clay Guida if he gets takedowns, but pre-fight goes with Johnson.

"i gotta go with michael johnson to get it done um hopefully he does uh don't don't [ __ ] this one up"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Michael Johnson is extremely untrustworthy, having lost 6 of his last 8 fights with mental lapses and slip-ups. He has all the skills but cannot be relied upon. Clay Guida brings relentless pressure, takedowns, and clinch work, and has a great gas tank. Johnson's takedown defense and fight IQ are questionable. Guida should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Johnson against the cage and taking him down. Skill-for-skill Johnson is better, but Guida's mentality and experience give him the edge.

Guida by decision; if Guida hits +200 it might be worth a play
"i'm picking clay gordy here i think he wins by decision i think we just see him over and over again just just grind on michael johnson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, believing his grappling is good enough to stuff Clay Guida's takedowns. He notes Johnson's wins over Poirier and Ferguson, and training with Usman. He predicts Johnson will land big shots early and finish Guida by TKO in the first or second round, suggesting Guida should retire.

first or second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with michael johnson here getting it done he didn't take any damage in his last bout"
Expert Picks (5)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Big Brady picks Mark Madsen, but is concerned about his gas tank. He notes Madsen has slowed down in previous fights, while Guida has endless cardio. However, he believes Madsen's wrestling is elite and he can get a finish early. He predicts a first-round submission.

first round submission
"i'm going to say mark mathen does get a first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Cody picks Madsen but with hesitation due to red flags: Madsen's broken jaw, infection, wife's MS, layoff, and cardio issues. He notes Madsen's elite wrestling but poor striking and potential to gas. He thinks Madsen's wrestling is enough to beat a 38-year-old Guida, but warns of submission danger from Guida's neck exposure.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i'll pick mark matson i think he gets it off early with that wrestling it is elite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Clay Guida

Madsen has cardio issues and has never faced a pace like Guida's. Guida's work rate and scrambling will be too much for Madsen in the later rounds. If Madsen doesn't get an early submission, Guida takes over. I'm picking Guida by decision, and he's a great live bet after round one.

Guida by decision (+290); live bet on Guida after round 1
"i'm going with the clay guitar side of things here i do think that he uh nullifies the amount of damage and submission threats that's going to be coming his way early in this fight and then i think he starts to pull away in the second and third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

Paul picks Madsen, citing his Olympic-level wrestling and training with Henry Cejudo at Fight Ready. He acknowledges Guida's cardio and durability but believes Madsen can turn it into a wrestling match and win. He notes Guida's tendency to leave his neck exposed, making a submission possible.

Madsen by sub +550 (DraftKings); decision likely but sub possible
"i think mark madsen can come come back here off the shelf i know he hasn't fought in a while but uh i think that he can just turn this into just a straight up wrestling match and get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mark Madsen

The MMA Guru picks Mark Madsen to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He expects Madsen to win the first two rounds with wrestling and grappling, then Guida to rally in the third but fall short. He notes Madsen's Olympic-level wrestling and size advantage, but questions his cardio.

"i think he's gonna beat the [ __ ] out of mark madsen in the third round i can see a 29-28 mark madsen here"