UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Francisco Figueiredo
2.04 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
2.51 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jerome Rivera
3.21 SLpM
33.0% Str. Acc.
2.6 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Francisco Figueiredo
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetWay +210
Jerome Rivera
Moneyline
BetWay +120
KO/TKO
BetWay +1000
Submission
BetWay +800
Decision
BetWay +200
Francisco Figueiredo - Fight History
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:34 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 12 of 18 66% 23 of 29 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:36
Francisco Figueiredo 0 11 of 15 73% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 12 of 18 66% 23 of 29 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:36
Francisco Figueiredo 0 11 of 15 73% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 12 of 18 66% 10 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
Francisco Figueiredo 11 of 15 73% 2 of 3 4 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 12 of 18 66% 10 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
Francisco Figueiredo 11 of 15 73% 2 of 3 4 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Angelo picks Amir Albazi over Francisco Figueiredo. He describes Albazi as a legit prospect with solid grappling, striking, and high pace, who is light on his toes and can quickly snatch a leg for takedowns. He notes that Figueiredo is about 75% of his brother's ability, but is better at wrestling and grappling. Angelo believes Albazi has the edge in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects a one-sided decision. The only concern is Albazi's year-and-a-half layoff, which prevents Angelo from making him a parlay piece.

Confident in Albazi to win but won't make him the tentpole of a parlay due to layoff.
"i like amir to win this a with a one-sided decision and the only thing preventing me from making amir a parlay piece is the layoff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady is confident in Amir Albazi. He criticizes Francisco Figueiredo's low volume (1.92 significant strikes per minute), lack of power, and poor cardio, noting he lost rounds to Malcolm Gordon and Jerome Rivera. Albazi is well-rounded, has better volume, power, cardio, and grappling. Brady expects Albazi to win by decision, though he mentions a late finish is possible. He sees Albazi having the advantage everywhere.

Albazi by decision
"i like obazi here to win i like albazi to win by either like a third round late finish or a decision i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his fluid striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio problems and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is on a different level and should win comfortably.

"i just think that the kids operating on a different level"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Daniel Levi leans toward Amir Albazi but is not confident enough to bet at -500. He thinks Albazi is a fantastic prospect but notes that he has been out for over a year and that Francisco Figueiredo is not as bad as the line suggests. Levi points out that Figueiredo made a bad decision in the Malcolm Gordon fight (dropping back for a leg lock from full mount) but has talent. He expects the fight to be competitive early, with Albazi pulling away later, but says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

Says he is not betting minus 500 because he expects a competitive fight, not a destruction. Mentions that Figueiredo's decision-making needs to improve.
"pure pick I'll go out Bazi but I ain't betting minus 500 on him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Albazi is a promising flyweight prospect with strong wrestling and improving hands. He should dominate Figueiredo, who is low-level and only wins by early knockout. Albazi's grappling and durability will be too much; he can win by decision or finish. The host includes Albazi in a four-leg parlay.

Included in a four-leg parlay with Maverick, under 1.5 in Pedro/Hunsucker, and Usman round 4-5/decision.
"I love amira here I think he's worth the track I think he absolutely destroys this kid so give me our mural bazi."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Paul picks Albazi, citing his superior striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio issues and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is the better fighter everywhere and should win, but the -500 line offers little value.

"i like albazi but again it's like a minus 500. figuredo is an underdog that i will not be getting to um not not a fan of not a fan of his not a big i mean the volume isn't …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Amir Albazi

The Guru predicts Amir Albazi wins by second-round submission via rear-naked choke. He describes Albazi landing jabs and shots over the top, while Figueiredo is defensively irresponsible. He sees Albazi taking Figueiredo down, taking the back, and locking in a standing rear-naked choke in round two.

Submission via rear-naked choke in round 2
"rear naked choke for amir al bazi in the second round is what i'm going to go for"
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:18 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.

"i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.

first round KO
"i'm gonna take daniel de silva to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.

"i think i mean frankie figure eight will probably there's nothing that uh that daniel lacerda can do to him that he hasn't seen in the gym"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.

"slightly lean with francisco but ... it's a 50 50 fight give me the dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.

Figueiredo by decision +275
"i'm gonna go with another underdog shot here in francisco figuerado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.

"i'm gonna take a shot on it why"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.

Lacerda by submission
"i'm going to trust on a full camp daniel de silva is going to have a great performance against francisco figuerado... gets himself like a submission win some point early on in the fight"
LOSS vs Malcolm Gordon
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Malcolm Gordon 0 28 of 45 62% 52 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 1 4:15
Francisco Figueiredo 0 46 of 84 54% 100 of 145 2 of 11 18% 0 0 6:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Malcolm Gordon 0 6 of 8 75% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:46
Francisco Figueiredo 0 15 of 20 75% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:48
2 Malcolm Gordon 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Francisco Figueiredo 0 22 of 55 40% 26 of 59 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:47
3 Malcolm Gordon 0 2 of 3 66% 16 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Francisco Figueiredo 0 9 of 9 100% 40 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Malcolm Gordon 28 of 45 62% 16 of 30 7 of 10 5 of 5 18 of 32 4 of 5 6 of 8
Francisco Figueiredo 46 of 84 54% 40 of 78 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 54 5 of 7 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Malcolm Gordon 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 5
Francisco Figueiredo 15 of 20 75% 11 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 14
2 Malcolm Gordon 20 of 34 58% 10 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Figueiredo 22 of 55 40% 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 49 3 of 5 1 of 1
3 Malcolm Gordon 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Figueiredo 9 of 9 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 8
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody is confident in Francisco Figueiredo, but he prefers prop bets. He has placed bets on Figueiredo inside the distance and under 2.5 rounds, citing Malcolm Gordon's poor chin and durability issues. He acknowledges Figueiredo's lack of power but believes Gordon's susceptibility to getting knocked out makes this a good prop play.

Figueiredo inside the distance (+125), under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"I took figareto inside the distance plus 125 and i got figurator gordon under two and a half minus 125."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo, but he is not high on him. He notes that Malcolm Gordon cannot take a punch and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He thinks Figueiredo just needs to land one clean shot to win, but he also acknowledges that Gordon could have success if the fight stays standing. Ultimately, he goes with Figueiredo.

"I'm gonna have to go figure rado."
WIN vs Jerome Rivera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 29 of 53 54% 39 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 7:07
Jerome Rivera 0 31 of 134 23% 85 of 199 0 of 5 0% 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Jerome Rivera 0 12 of 35 34% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Francisco Figueiredo 0 13 of 18 72% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jerome Rivera 0 5 of 33 15% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:57
Jerome Rivera 0 14 of 66 21% 34 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 29 of 53 54% 11 of 28 7 of 11 11 of 14 20 of 40 4 of 4 5 of 9
Jerome Rivera 31 of 134 23% 12 of 90 8 of 20 11 of 24 22 of 112 9 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 17 47% 3 of 7 3 of 6 2 of 4 5 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 3
Jerome Rivera 12 of 35 34% 1 of 16 5 of 9 6 of 10 8 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francisco Figueiredo 13 of 18 72% 5 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Jerome Rivera 5 of 33 15% 3 of 22 0 of 4 2 of 7 4 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 14 of 66 21% 8 of 52 3 of 7 3 of 7 10 of 54 4 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision; not confident
"i'm gonna take the underdog here in jerome rivera not all the confident"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

"i will pick jerome to win i do think he gets it done via decision but i wouldn't be surprised if we see some wrinkles from figueretto's game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna definitely pick jerome rivera here in an upset against francisco figuerado"
Jerome Rivera - Fight History
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:02 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 0 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:12
Jerome Rivera 0 11 of 40 27% 11 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhalgas Zhumagulov 10 of 24 41% 4 of 15 4 of 6 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 11 of 40 27% 2 of 27 7 of 10 2 of 3 11 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Angelo picks Zhumagulov, citing his toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Zhumagulov will close the distance, get takedowns, and dominate. He notes Rivera is not UFC-level yet and has lost three in a row. However, he warns against betting at -358 odds and suggests the under on rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds
"zalgas is my pick but uh like i mentioned i'm staying far away from it in draftkings"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Big Brady picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov to win by decision. He thinks Zhumagulov is the better fighter and can mix in takedowns. He notes Rivera has zero takedowns in the UFC and poor takedown accuracy. However, he is concerned about the height and reach disadvantages for Zhumagulov, and thinks the -358 line is too wide. He expects Zhumagulov to close the distance and get the job done, but not without difficulty.

"i'm going to say zagasumu gulab by decision but yeah the minus 358 just seems like a little bit way too wide for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Cody picks Zhumagulov, noting his experience and Rivera's poor UFC run. He thinks Zhumagulov's volume and takedowns will be too much. He expects a decision win but also likes the KO prop at +450.

Zhalgas by KO at +450
"zalgus by decision i think that's like everyone's gonna pick azalgus by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Daniel Levi picks Zhalgas Zhumagulov. He acknowledges that Zhumagulov has not been impressive and is a small flyweight, but believes he has beaten better competition on the regional scene. He criticizes Jerome Rivera for being timid and lacking confidence, despite having physical advantages. He thinks Zhumagulov will outpoint Rivera to a unanimous decision. He cannot back Rivera to win any UFC fight.

"i see zagat zuma gula out pointing him to a to a probably unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Jacob picks Rivera as an underdog, citing his length and submission threat. He notes Rivera's losses are to top competition and he believes Rivera can keep distance and find a submission. He thinks the -358 on Zhumagulov is too high and likes the plus money on Rivera.

Rivera by submission
"i actually like jerome in in this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

I'm picking Zhumagulov to win, but I'm not confident. He is a point fighter with low finishing ability, and Rivera is a volume striker who could make it close. Rivera has value as a dog, especially by decision. I think Zhumagulov wins a close decision, but I wouldn't parlay him. The over 2.5 rounds is a better bet.

Rivera by decision (+560), over 2.5 rounds
"my pick ultimately is going to be zuma gulov but please don't go out there like parlaying him in all these tickets"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Paul picks Zhumagulov, noting Rivera's poor record and chin issues. He thinks Zhumagulov's experience and durability will prevail. He expects a decision win.

"i think zogus does get the job done this could be the end of the road for jerome rivera"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Zhalgas Zhumagulov

The Guru picks Zhumagulov by 30-27 unanimous decision. He expects both fighters to trade on the feet in the first half of each round, with Rivera possibly having a range advantage. But Zhumagulov will stay patient, then walk Rivera down and take him down against the cage in the second half of each round, landing ground and pound. The Guru compares the takedown style to Alvarez-Poirier. He sees Zhumagulov winning every round with dominant top control.

"zalgasa magulov is going to get this one done as well ... i'll give it a 30 27 to zalgasa magulov"
LOSS vs Ode' Osbourne
KO (punches) R1 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ode' Osbourne 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ode' Osbourne 1 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ode' Osbourne 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jerome Rivera 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ode' Osbourne 5 of 6 83% 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jerome Rivera 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady picks Jerome Rivera, citing his legit wrestling and ground game, and expects him to get takedowns and control the fight. He notes that Ode' Osbourne is a threat off his back with submissions, but believes Rivera's top game will prevail. He predicts a decision win, possibly a submission, but is wary of Osbourne's submission threat.

"I'm gonna go with Bondar here because I do think the takedowns are going to be coming from his side... I'm gonna say Bondar by submission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Ode' Osbourne

Daniel Levi picks Ode' Osbourne confidently, comparing his style to Yuri Alcantara. He notes Rivera's lack of takedowns (0 in three UFC fights) and believes Osbourne's athleticism and striking will be too much. He expects a finish or clear decision.

"i'm going all day osborne shaq"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Rivera has good wrestling and submission skills, and Osbourne has shown poor takedown defense and cardio issues. Osbourne has only been to the second round once, so his gas tank is unknown. Rivera should be able to take Osbourne down and control him. I expect Rivera to win by submission in the second round.

Rivera by submission; second round submission
"i like uh i like uh bon derek here he could possibly pull off the submission as well too i'll go with second round submission for bonder"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Dennis Bondar (Jerome Rivera) over Ode' Osbourne, citing Bondar's calmness in bad positions and scrambling ability. He expects Osbourne to throw wild shots early, which Bondar will counter with takedowns. He predicts a submission win via arm triangle in the second round after Osbourne gasses.

submission in the second round via arm triangle
"i'm gonna go with dennis bondar getting the job done stepping up he's a very good fighter"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 29 of 53 54% 39 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 7:07
Jerome Rivera 0 31 of 134 23% 85 of 199 0 of 5 0% 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Jerome Rivera 0 12 of 35 34% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Francisco Figueiredo 0 13 of 18 72% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jerome Rivera 0 5 of 33 15% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:57
Jerome Rivera 0 14 of 66 21% 34 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 29 of 53 54% 11 of 28 7 of 11 11 of 14 20 of 40 4 of 4 5 of 9
Jerome Rivera 31 of 134 23% 12 of 90 8 of 20 11 of 24 22 of 112 9 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 17 47% 3 of 7 3 of 6 2 of 4 5 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 3
Jerome Rivera 12 of 35 34% 1 of 16 5 of 9 6 of 10 8 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francisco Figueiredo 13 of 18 72% 5 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Jerome Rivera 5 of 33 15% 3 of 22 0 of 4 2 of 7 4 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 14 of 66 21% 8 of 52 3 of 7 3 of 7 10 of 54 4 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision; not confident
"i'm gonna take the underdog here in jerome rivera not all the confident"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

"i will pick jerome to win i do think he gets it done via decision but i wouldn't be surprised if we see some wrinkles from figueretto's game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna definitely pick jerome rivera here in an upset against francisco figuerado"
LOSS vs Tyson Nam
TKO (punches) R2 0:34 · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · Sep 19, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tyson Nam 1 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Jerome Rivera 0 30 of 80 37% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tyson Nam 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Jerome Rivera 0 28 of 76 36% 29 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tyson Nam 1 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jerome Rivera 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tyson Nam 36 of 72 50% 27 of 58 7 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 47 3 of 3 15 of 22
Jerome Rivera 30 of 80 37% 9 of 45 2 of 11 19 of 24 29 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tyson Nam 20 of 48 41% 11 of 34 7 of 12 2 of 2 17 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 28 of 76 36% 9 of 43 1 of 10 18 of 23 27 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Tyson Nam 16 of 24 66% 16 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 22
Jerome Rivera 2 of 4 50% 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tyson Nam

Big Brady picks Tyson Nam because he believes Nam's power will catch Rivera, who leaves openings on defense. He notes Rivera wants to take the fight to the ground but isn't great at getting it there, and Nam hits very hard. He predicts a first-round knockout, though he admits it's hard to bet on Nam due to low volume.

Nam inside the distance, Nam by knockout
"i do think mom's going to catch up maybe take a look at the nom inside the distance prop the num knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 18, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host believes Jerome Rivera will be more active and offensive, using takedowns and cage work to outwork Tyson Nam. He notes Nam is a low-output fighter who relies on knockouts and rarely wins decisions, while Rivera has a solid chin and good movement. He expects Rivera to win by decision, as Nam is unlikely to finish him and will lose if he doesn't get a knockout.

Jerome Rivera by decision +305; Tyson Nam inside distance +125
"I truly think that this is Jerome Rivera's fight to win and I think he is going to win it."
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision; not confident
"i'm gonna take the underdog here in jerome rivera not all the confident"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

"i will pick jerome to win i do think he gets it done via decision but i wouldn't be surprised if we see some wrinkles from figueretto's game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna definitely pick jerome rivera here in an upset against francisco figuerado"