Douglas Silva de Andrade

Angelo picks Javier Reyes despite acknowledging that Douglas Silva de Andrade is the better individual fighter. He cites Silva de Andrade's age (40) and long layoff (almost two years) as major concerns. He believes Reyes's busy, active style and youth will overwhelm the older fighter, as long as Reyes avoids poor takedown attempts.

Big Brady picks the underdog Douglas Silva de Andrade, despite his age (40) and moving up to featherweight. He believes Andrade's elite takedown defense will neutralize Javier Reyes' grappling, and that Andrade is the better striker. He notes Reyes has been knocked out before and predicts a second-round knockout for Andrade.

Cody agrees, noting Silva de Andrade's age, muscle mass, and inactivity. He sees Reyes as a human tornado with high KO percentage and expects him to overwhelm Silva de Andrade.

Connor picks Reyes as a sadness hedge, noting that Silva is older, less active, and getting hurt more. Reyes has finished many opponents and tries to finish, while Silva's durability has declined. However, Connor acknowledges that Silva would win at any other point in their careers.

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

The host is betting on Andrade because he believes the odds are wildly inaccurate. He notes that Andrade is a nightmare matchup for Reyes: he has knockout power, a granite chin, is tough, well-rounded, and difficult to take down. Reyes is making his UFC debut, looks flat, has poor striking defense, and is not physically imposing. Despite Andrade being 40 and on a two-year layoff, the host thinks he should be the favorite and is great value at +187.

James expects Reyes' relentless pace and cardio to overwhelm the 40-year-old Silva de Andrade, who may tire after a layoff. He predicts a late finish for Reyes, possibly in round three.

The host picks Javier Reyes, noting that Silva de Andrade is 40, has been inactive, and moves up in weight. He believes Reyes's well-rounded game, size advantage, and grappling will be key. He expects Reyes to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision, though he warns that Silva de Andrade has power early and could replicate a past knockout of Reyes.

Paul likes Reyes's finishing ability and believes Silva de Andrade's age, layoff, and health issues will be factors. He expects Reyes to win by knockout, possibly in the second or third round, and recommends the KO prop at +350.

The MMA Guru picks Javier Reyes over the 40-year-old Douglas Silva de Andrade, who has looked poor in recent fights. He notes that Reyes has fought decent competition outside the UFC and is a young prospect, while Andrade has lost power and physicality moving up to featherweight. He predicts a 29-28 decision win for Reyes.

Angelo picks Miles Johns, citing his youth, speed, and wrestling advantage. He notes Douglas is durable and a tough striker but is older and slowing down. He worries about Miles' cardio but believes his wrestling will be the difference. He mentions he has a moneyline bet on Miles.

Cody picks Miles Johns, citing his improved cardio and wrestling under Trey Ogden at Marathon MMA. He notes that Johns used to gas out but has shown better pacing in recent fights. Cody believes Johns can outwork Silva de Andrade by pressing him against the cage and using takedowns, especially since Silva de Andrade is 39 and cuts to 135, which may affect his durability. He expects a low-volume decision win for Johns.

Daniel Vreeland has a love-hate relationship with Miles Johns, noting his low output and tendency to back himself to the fence. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade's experience and durability but leans with Johns due to his physicality, youth, and confidence. He expects a low-output fight and sees Johns as the more physical younger guy.

Jacob picks Miles Johns but expects to be nervous during the fight. He recalls Miles gassing in the Cody Gibson fight and needing motivation. He thinks Douglas is a tough bowling ball and Miles may struggle with cardio again. He notes Miles should win but it will be close.

Johns has evolved and matured, allowing him to execute a game plan to wear on de Andrade's gas tank. By slowing him down early and evading his power, Johns will grind out a decision using clinching, takedowns, footwork, and output.

Paul picks Douglas Silva de Andrade as a dog, noting that he bets him almost every fight because he is always the underdog. He highlights Silva de Andrade's durability and power, and believes that judges are not rewarding wrestling control as much these days. Paul thinks Silva de Andrade can land the bigger shots and win, despite his low volume.

Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.

Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.

Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.

Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.

Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.

Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.

Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.

The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.

Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.

The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.

Angelo picks Morozov due to his wrestling advantage, noting that Andrade has been taken down in every loss. He believes Morozov can hang with Andrade's power, set a hard pace, and mix in takedowns to win a unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's experience but thinks Morozov's pressure and top control will be decisive.

Big Brady is impressed with Morozov's well-rounded game, especially his fight IQ and takedown ability. He notes Morozov showed good striking against Khalid Taha and took him down six times. Brady believes Morozov will take down Silva de Andrade multiple times and control him on the mat, leading to a decision win. He also points out Silva de Andrade is 36 and has only one submission win, relying mostly on knockouts.

Cody picks Morozov, citing his high-level regional experience and grinding style. He notes Silva de Andrade has poor takedown defense and that Morozov can exploit that. He expects Morozov to take him down and control the fight.

Daniel Levi picks Sergey Morozov by decision. He notes that Morozov showed big improvements in his last fight and that his clinch and pressure will be key. Silva de Andrade has holes in the clinch and tends to rest. Levi believes Morozov will work harder and win a decision.

Morozov has a clear grappling advantage and should dominate de Andrade on the ground. De Andrade has shown vulnerability to wrestlers in the past, struggling to get up from under opponents like Henan Barou. Morozov trains at American Top Team and has sharp boxing to close distance. The only way de Andrade wins is by knockout, but Morozov's chin and unorthodox striking make that unlikely. Already placed 3 units and may add more.

Paul admits he hasn't watched tape on this fight and defers to Cody's analysis. He doesn't make a clear pick.

Angelo picks Gaetano Pirrello as the underdog, believing his world-class Muay Thai striking will be too much for Douglas Silva de Andrade. He notes that Andrade is dropping down to 135, which may affect his chin, and that he rarely uses his wrestling despite having a clear path to victory via takedowns. Angelo thinks Pirrello will get to showcase his striking and that Andrade will be on the wrong end of it. He considers a moneyline bet at plus money and may include Pirrello in his knockout pool.

Big Brady picks Douglas Silva de Andrade to win by knockout, but is not overly confident due to Andrade's age (36) and style. He notes Andrade is a striker who will brawl, which plays into Pirrello's hands as Pirrello is dangerous and has 14 of 17 wins inside the distance. However, Andrade has fought much better competition (Rob Font, Marlon Vera, etc.) while Pirrello looked poor in his UFC debut against Ricky Simone. Brady thinks the line is wide and prefers a violence play.

Cody picks Andrade based on experience and durability. He notes that Andrade has fought tough competition and has a good chin. Pirrello is a striker who has not faced the same level of opposition. He expects Andrade to pressure and take over as Pirrello fades. However, he is not highly confident.

Daniel Levi picks Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his experience and ability to show up in fights. He notes Pirrello has issues with takedown defense and chin, but Silva is 36 at bantamweight and could be caught. Levi thinks at their best, Silva wins, but he does not recommend laying -240 due to the risk. He personally passes on betting but picks Silva to get it done.

I think Pirrello's cardio fades as the fight goes on, and Andrade is the better fighter everywhere. Andrade has good power and grappling, and Pirrello's defensive grappling is terrible. I like Andrade by decision at +175, but the moneyline is fine too. I'm not worried about Pirrello's early danger because Andrade can weather it.

Paul also picks Andrade but is not confident. He notes that Andrade has not fought frequently and has a limited grappling game. Pirrello is a dangerous striker early. He thinks Andrade's experience will be the difference but is wary of the price.

Big Brady thinks Lerone Murphy is the cleaner striker and has a reach advantage. He acknowledges Douglas Silva de Andrade is tough and throws volume, but believes Murphy's technique will prevail. He notes Murphy's wrestling is decent and he can work back to his feet. He predicts a decision win for Murphy, but says it could be close.

The host likes Lerone Murphy's reach, power, and ground-and-pound, and believes he can either out-strike Douglas from distance or take him down for a finish. He notes Douglas's age and lack of takedown defense, and expects Murphy to win by second-round KO via ground and pound.