vs
+200 -250
UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny Next Fight
Age 35
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Warlley Alves
3.04 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.95 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
1.22 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
62.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mounir Lazzez
7.49 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
5.42 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.8 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
71.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Warlley Alves
Moneyline
BetWay +200
KO/TKO
BetWay +800
Submission
BetWay +500
Decision
BetWay +350
Mounir Lazzez
Moneyline
BetWay -250
KO/TKO
BetWay +120
Submission
BetWay +2200
Decision
BetWay +240
Warlley Alves - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 22 of 44 50% 98 of 168 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:56
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 9 of 20 45% 30 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:30
Warlley Alves 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 15 53% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:15
Warlley Alves 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 5 of 9 55% 20 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:11
Warlley Alves 0 5 of 7 71% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 22 of 44 50% 15 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 27 2 of 2 11 of 15
Warlley Alves 16 of 38 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 5 of 8 16 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3
Warlley Alves 8 of 24 33% 4 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 10
Warlley Alves 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"
LOSS vs Ikram Aliskerov
TKO (flying knee and punches) R1 2:07 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ikram Aliskerov 1 26 of 36 72% 26 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 16 75% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ikram Aliskerov 26 of 36 72% 20 of 29 6 of 6 0 of 1 26 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 16 75% 3 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 9 12 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Angelo is confident in Ikram Aliskerov, noting his wrestling pressure and that he was preparing for a good striker originally. He thinks Alves has cardio issues and is on short notice. He expects Ikram to avoid a slugfest and control the fight with wrestling. He has Ikram in parlays.

parlay inclusion
"aram's the pick I have him in parlays as well I think he's pretty safe to do that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Big Brady picks Ikram Aliskerov to win by second round knockout. He notes that Warlley Alves is coming up a weight class on short notice, has questionable cardio, and has been finished in the second round multiple times. Aliskerov is a heavy favorite and Brady expects him to overwhelm Alves as the fight extends.

second round knockout
"give meam alisar to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Cody picks Aliskerov, highlighting that Alves is a front-runner who fades after the first round. He notes that Aliskerov has good wrestling and striking, and that Alves has been submitted and out-struck in recent fights. Cody believes Aliskerov will take Alves down and control him, leading to a finish or clear decision. He also mentions that Alves is giving up size and reach.

"Aliskerov is the pick but I mean at the number and what is available even on the props it just doesn't feel like something I'm going to get to on my betting card this week"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Daniel picks Ikram Aliskerov to win, noting his dominant finishes and wrestling, but acknowledges that Aliskerov went to a split decision with a low-level opponent, suggesting he might be slightly overrated. He describes Warlley Alves as a talented flake who can beat anyone or lose to anyone, and notes that Alves has fraud-checked prospects before. Daniel says it's a 'dog or pass' situation and that picking a -550 favorite is obvious, but he wouldn't be surprised if Alves pulls an upset.

Aliskerov minus 550, Alves plus 400; mentions Alves as a 'talented flake' and potential fraud check
"It doesn't take a [ __ ] genius to to pick a minus 550 favorite um and I will pick rram to win this fight but it's not going to surprise me if warley... looks amazing."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Aliskerov is a big fan, impressed with his wrestling and improving hands. He can shut down Alves' kicking game by taking the fight to the ground, grinding him out, and doing damage from top position. Alves has cardio issues and slows down, so Aliskerov can find a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"give me Ali scar of by TKO in round let's call it round two I might even take a sprinkle on round three"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

Paul picks Aliskerov, noting that Alves is on a two-fight losing streak, has poor cardio, and is a front-runner who fades if he doesn't finish early. Aliskerov is a natural middleweight with a full camp, while Alves is moving up on short notice. Paul expects Aliskerov to out-volume Alves and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish or dominant decision.

"I'm getting Ikram Aliskerov who got ready for a better fighter he's got a full camp now he's getting Warlley Alves short notice Alves doesn't have a great gas tank to begin with"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ikram Aliskerov

The MMA Guru picks Ikram Aliskerov, though he is not fully sold on him. He notes Aliskerov has good grappling and striking, and is in his prime with a full camp. He criticizes Aliskerov's split decision with Chad Hanam at Brave FC. He thinks Alves has taken too much damage and hasn't been active, so Aliskerov should win.

"I'm going to go with ikram alisov winning this fight for sure"
LOSS vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 66 of 144 45% 75 of 153 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Warlley Alves 0 119 of 248 47% 167 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 35 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Warlley Alves 0 35 of 74 47% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 37 48% 20 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Warlley Alves 0 31 of 73 42% 52 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 30 of 72 41% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Warlley Alves 0 53 of 101 52% 64 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 66 of 144 45% 45 of 117 7 of 12 14 of 15 62 of 138 4 of 6 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 119 of 248 47% 75 of 195 35 of 41 9 of 12 86 of 212 32 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 35 51% 7 of 22 4 of 5 7 of 8 16 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 35 of 74 47% 19 of 51 13 of 17 3 of 6 20 of 58 15 of 16 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 37 48% 11 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 6 17 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 31 of 73 42% 22 of 62 5 of 7 4 of 4 25 of 67 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Nicolas Dalby 30 of 72 41% 27 of 66 2 of 5 1 of 1 29 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 53 of 101 52% 34 of 82 17 of 17 2 of 2 41 of 87 12 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.

"I'm gonna pick uh Worley Alves I think he's uh the more likely fighter to finish this fight I think is the more likely fighter to Grapple and if he does grapple pretty easy path to Victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.

bet under 2.5 rounds at -120; mentions Alves' guillotine choke
"I took the under two and a half rounds uh minus 120. um I'm surprised that Line's still actually there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.

"I'm going to go with Dolby just for being a workhorse."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.

mentions under 2.5 rounds; says Alves is a front-runner
"Alvis is the rifle pick 16 months off gaster notorious apple pie [ __ ] don't put a bunch of money on them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.

"I'm gonna go dalby but it's worrying this is one of them fights this is truly like a a really close fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.

"I'm going to pick Warlley Alves. I think he's gonna do too much damage early until we won't be able to come back hard enough to win."
LOSS vs Jeremiah Wells
KO (punches) R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeremiah Wells 0 15 of 17 88% 15 of 17 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 1 21 of 52 40% 29 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeremiah Wells 0 11 of 12 91% 11 of 12 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:22
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 35 28% 18 of 45 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:29
2 Jeremiah Wells 0 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Warlley Alves 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeremiah Wells 15 of 17 88% 1 of 2 7 of 7 7 of 8 10 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 21 of 52 40% 17 of 48 4 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 36 0 of 0 9 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeremiah Wells 11 of 12 91% 1 of 1 6 of 6 4 of 5 6 of 7 2 of 2 3 of 3
Warlley Alves 10 of 35 28% 7 of 32 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 10
2 Jeremiah Wells 4 of 5 80% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 11 of 17 64% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Jeremiah Wells

Round 1
Many forget that Alves (14-4, 8-4 UFC) won the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” back in 2014 at middleweight, at the same time that Antonio Carlos Jr. won it at heavyweight. In this welterweight battle, the TUF victor will welcome Wells (8-2-1, 0-0 UFC) to the UFC on short notice, as Ramazan Emeev was forced out for undisclosed reasons. Drawing the assignment is referee Chris Tognoni, who observes an attempted glove touch from Alves as these two prepare to get after it. Wells ignores him as he runs behind the back of Tognoni, and he charges ahead and bowls Alves over with a surge of strikes and forward movement. The Brazilian is able to scoot his way back to the corner of the fence, and looks to kick off the fence while getting away with a cheeky fence grab with his toes. Wells drags him back down and starts blasting Alves in the face with huge right hands, and Alves is stuck in this position on his side. Wells unloads several more blistering right hands as he climbs to half guard, and he turns the punches to elbows when Alves grabs his wrist. Wells stands up to find a better position, and Alves pops right to his feet. Wells rushes him to ring Alves’ bell with an elbow, and he presses hard into the clinch before lifting Alves in the air. The Brazilian keeps his balance as he lands on one foot, so Wells knees him square in the midsection. The newcomer keeps his full body weight pushes on the UFC vet, but Alves simply shoves him away to gain some distance. Wells counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and he swings a huge right hand at Alves. Another home run shot comes from Wells, and Alves sees these telegraphed strikes coming and can parry them. Wells eats a counter left hand flush, and Wells whiffs on looping strikes. Wells rushes in with a flying knee before considering a takedown, and his fingers ensnare themselves into the fencing to draw a warning from Tognoni. Wells fails on a trip, and he chains this into a double leg takedown. Alves defends with a guillotine choke, and he jumps guard to set it up. Alves uses the choke to push Wells to his back, and Wells keeps a single butterfly hook in to defend himself from punishment. Wells uses upkicks to push Alves back, and the round ends with an axe kick from Alves that may have glanced off Wells’ chin – and therefore would be quite illegal. Nothing comes of it.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 2
Alves is the man to leap out of his corner this round, jumping forward with a flying knee. Wells tries to swing bombs at him, and a counter right hand knocks Alves off-balance. The Brazilian stumbles and tries to survive, and Wells follows him to the ground to continue unloading on him.
Alves gets to his knees, but Wells bowls him over and smashes him in the face with right hand after unanswered right hand. It only takes a few for Alves to go completely out, and Tognoni cannot stop the fight fast enough.
What a way to announce yourself to the UFC, knocking out a tough vet after a furious first round. Welcome to the UFC, Jeremiah Wells.

The Official Result
Jeremiah Wells def. Warlley Alves R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Angelo picks Warlley Alves, citing his full training camp, consistency, and veteran experience. He acknowledges Jeremiah Wells is live with good grappling and wild striking but is not confident due to Wells' two-year layoff and short notice UFC debut. Angelo thinks Alves is the safer pick.

"i think warley is the pick full training camp has been consistent an actual veteran with some solid fights i think jeremiah's live may come out there and shock a lot of people but i just don't um you know …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Warlley Alves to win by first round KO, despite acknowledging his inconsistency and poor cardio. He notes Alves's dangerous finishing ability and that Wells is making his UFC debut on short notice after a long layoff. He thinks Alves will finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Wells could be a live bet. He would not parlay Alves.

by KO, first round, would not parlay, live bet on Wells if past first round
"the picks and me alvas i'm taking the win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Alves but with low confidence due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has all the tools but often gasses after one round. However, Wells also has cardio issues and is on short notice. Cody thinks Alves has advantages everywhere if he shows up, but he won't bet him because of the trap potential. He suggests the under 1.5 rounds as a possible play.

"i gotta go with worley alba's but i learned my lesson on betting worley he's gonna either show up and i'm you'll say i wish i had more money on him or he's not going to show up"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Jacob picks Jeremiah Wells, noting his fast hands, real jiu-jitsu under Henzo Gracie, and potential to be a one-punch knockout artist. He acknowledges the risk of the layoff and short notice but believes Wells is live and can win. Jacob wanted to make Wells his lock of the week but wasn't confident enough.

"first of all i would i would play the the more and more on this um and i really wanted to make jeremiah my lock of the week honestly we saw what happened uh what was it last week with …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Alves is the much better striker with legitimate jiu-jitsu. Wells is on short notice and has inactivity issues. Alves will take whatever Wells throws and make him pay. Wells has a puncher's chance but can't maintain pressure for 15 minutes. Alves should win by decision, though his cardio could be a factor if things don't go his way.

Alves by decision
"I think that elvis has the chops to survive whatever was just throwing at him and then just give it right back to him... I think alves probably wins this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Alves but is not confident. He notes Alves' cardio issues but thinks Wells also fades. He believes Alves has better skills and should win if he doesn't gas. He is not betting the fight but would lean under 1.5 rounds if forced.

"i like worley but 2 30 for a guy that i have no faith can fight 15 minutes is a really tough ask"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

The MMA Guru picks Warlley Alves by first-round KO, citing Wells as a short-notice replacement without quick finishes or devastating power. He notes Alves' rejuvenated career and believes Wells' age (34) and lack of first-round KOs work against him. He expects Alves to capitalize early before cardio becomes a factor.

first round KO
"i'll go have wale alves here getting a first round ko over jeremiah wells"
WIN vs Mounir Lazzez
TKO (body kicks and punches) R1 2:35 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

Lazzez by KO in round 2; under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm going to take liz to win i think the first couple of minutes are going to be extremely extremely sketchy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i love munir to win in this fight i it's hard for me to see truly how he gets finished"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with muni lazers by third round tko because wale alves can't fight for longer than a round"
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Submission (triangle choke) R2 1:22 · UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Nov 16, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 3 of 11 27% 8 of 18 3 of 3 100% 2 0 4:17
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 30 53% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 1 1 1:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 2 of 3 66% 7 of 10 2 of 2 100% 2 0 3:34
Warlley Alves 0 6 of 11 54% 9 of 14 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:12
2 Randy Brown 0 1 of 8 12% 1 of 8 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Warlley Alves 0 10 of 19 52% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 3 of 11 27% 1 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3 1 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 16 of 30 53% 11 of 23 3 of 4 2 of 3 9 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 2 of 3 66% 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 6 of 11 54% 4 of 8 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 2 of 5
2 Randy Brown 1 of 8 12% 0 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 10 of 19 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3 8 of 17 0 of 0 2 of 2
KO (punch) R3 4:13 · UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · May 11, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 72 of 157 45% 72 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 20 of 62 32% 20 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Warlley Alves 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sérgio Moraes 0 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Warlley Alves 1 38 of 69 55% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sérgio Moraes 0 6 of 21 28% 6 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 72 of 157 45% 36 of 107 10 of 14 26 of 36 70 of 154 2 of 3 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 20 of 62 32% 12 of 52 7 of 9 1 of 1 19 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 10 of 31 32% 2 of 14 1 of 3 7 of 14 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Warlley Alves 24 of 57 42% 10 of 42 2 of 3 12 of 12 24 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 5 of 20 25% 2 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Warlley Alves 38 of 69 55% 24 of 51 7 of 8 7 of 10 36 of 67 2 of 2 0 of 0
Sérgio Moraes 6 of 21 28% 4 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
LOSS vs James Krause
KO (knee and punches) R2 2:28 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
James Krause 0 59 of 106 55% 79 of 126 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:05
Warlley Alves 0 28 of 64 43% 39 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 James Krause 0 31 of 65 47% 38 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 40 40% 19 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
2 James Krause 0 28 of 41 68% 41 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:10
Warlley Alves 0 12 of 24 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
James Krause 59 of 106 55% 43 of 83 14 of 19 2 of 4 43 of 85 16 of 21 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 28 of 64 43% 20 of 47 6 of 13 2 of 4 18 of 51 10 of 11 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 James Krause 31 of 65 47% 20 of 48 10 of 15 1 of 2 27 of 58 4 of 7 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 16 of 40 40% 8 of 25 6 of 11 2 of 4 11 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 2
2 James Krause 28 of 41 68% 23 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 2 16 of 27 12 of 14 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 12 of 24 50% 12 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 5 of 5 0 of 0
Mounir Lazzez - Fight History
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:49 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Mounir Lazzez 0 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 9 of 22 40% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:04
Mounir Lazzez 0 9 of 13 69% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 9 of 22 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mounir Lazzez 9 of 13 69% 0 of 4 4 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 9 of 22 40% 6 of 18 2 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mounir Lazzez 9 of 13 69% 0 of 4 4 of 4 5 of 5 9 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-190), Lazzez (+160)

Round 1
Switching gears to the prelims on the ABC network, welterweights are up as Bonfim (13-0, 0-0 UFC) tries to make his family go 2-0 tonight at the expense of Tunisia native Lazzez (11-2, 2-1 UFC). Bonfim has yet to go the distance as a pro, with a majority of his wins by sub, while Lazzez’ own knockout rate sits at a solid 73%. Overseeing what could be a fun one is referee Herb Dean, and the two fighters do not bump fists as they have violence in mind instead. The two throw kicks at one another almost simultaneously, and Bonfim falls over when throwing too hard. Bonfim backs off and prepares to counter, and he catches an oncoming Lazzez with a clean right hand. Lazzez walks into a kick, slings a few punches, ducks one coming at him and rushes forward in pursuit of a takedown. The Brazilian is prepared, and he counters with a guillotine choke. As they move, Bonfim completely capitalizes on the momentum coming towards him to roll Lazzez over to his back, with
the guillotine choke completely secured as soon as he claims full mount. From there, it is only a matter of time, as they are bone dry and Bonfim is at full power. The squeeze is ruthless, and Lazzez grits it out for a few seconds before frantically tapping out on the side, just in time as he would likely have gone out had he not.
It is quite a night for the Bonfim brothers, as they secure exceptional finishes in their debuts over extremely tough opponents – Lazzez had never been submitted – in front of a home crowd.

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Mounir Lazzez R1 0:49 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady is high on Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is dangerous everywhere, especially on the ground with submissions like the Von Flue choke. He thinks Bonfim has many paths to victory, though Lazzez is a good striker with a great chin. He expects Bonfim to take the fight down and submit Lazzez in the second round. He believes the hype on Bonfim is warranted.

submission, second round
"I'm gonna actually say uh bonfiend gets to sub here I'm gonna say he takes downloads and get to sub at some point in this fight I'll say second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Cody picks Mounir Lazzez as a dog, noting his reach, volume, and takedown defense. He says Bonfim is hittable and takes damage, and that Lazzez is the more technical striker. He acknowledges Bonfim's submission skills but thinks Lazzez can keep the fight standing and win a decision. He says this is his first underdog pick of the card.

mentions Bonfim's submission threat; says Lazzez is the more technical striker
"I think munir lazez is the much more technical uh much more technical Striker"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Connor agrees, noting Lazzez is a better striker and has a reach advantage. Bonfim's game is formless and he will likely have to strike with Lazzez, which is a losing proposition.

"I just don't see how he's going to reliably avoid having a kickboxing match with a technically much better kickboxer."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Paul picks Mounir Lazzez, agreeing with Cody. He notes Bonfim's holes in striking and that Lazzez is the more technical striker. He says Bonfim is a good prospect but not ready for this level. He mentions Lazzez's reach and volume. He says he's not comfortable laying -170 on Bonfim.

mentions Bonfim's submission threat; says Lazzez is the more technical striker
"I'm in agreement with you I think that munir lazez is the much more technical uh much more technical Striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

The Guru picks Bonfim, noting he has many ways to win. Bonfim is a two-to-one favorite and has a strong submission game, with wins by d'arce choke and Von Flue choke. The Guru believes Bonfim will take Lazzez down and find a submission, possibly a rear-naked choke or TKO via ground and pound. He notes Lazzez is a striker who has beaten bottom-of-the-barrel competition.

submission
"I'm going with Gabriel buntham ... I think he'll get the submission taken down moonila says who's a striker"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Zane picks Lazzez because he is a technically superior kickboxer with a reach advantage. Bonfim's grappling is good but his takedown entries are not clean, and Lazzez is stable in the clinch. Bonfim's striking is not at Lazzez's level.

"I just kind of have to pick Mounir Lazzez."
WIN vs Ange Loosa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 · Apr 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mounir Lazzez 0 141 of 260 54% 141 of 260 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:02
Ange Loosa 0 88 of 213 41% 91 of 216 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mounir Lazzez 0 29 of 53 54% 29 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Ange Loosa 0 14 of 40 35% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Mounir Lazzez 0 44 of 87 50% 44 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
Ange Loosa 0 26 of 74 35% 27 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Mounir Lazzez 0 68 of 120 56% 68 of 120 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ange Loosa 0 48 of 99 48% 48 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mounir Lazzez 141 of 260 54% 98 of 208 23 of 31 20 of 21 138 of 255 3 of 5 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 88 of 213 41% 34 of 141 14 of 24 40 of 48 88 of 213 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mounir Lazzez 29 of 53 54% 14 of 36 8 of 10 7 of 7 29 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 14 of 40 35% 1 of 22 2 of 4 11 of 14 14 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mounir Lazzez 44 of 87 50% 33 of 72 5 of 8 6 of 7 41 of 82 3 of 5 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 26 of 74 35% 12 of 56 2 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mounir Lazzez 68 of 120 56% 51 of 100 10 of 13 7 of 7 68 of 120 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ange Loosa 48 of 99 48% 21 of 63 10 of 16 17 of 20 48 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Angelo picks Mounir Lazzez (referred to as Zaleski), citing his experience, cardio, power, and unorthodox striking. He notes that Lazzez has a capoeira background with spinning techniques and real power. He acknowledges that Ange Loosa is a very good striker with takedowns and is a live underdog, but believes Lazzez's experience gives him the edge.

"i think that experience coupled with his cardio power and unorthodox striking give him the edge here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Ange Loosa

Cody leans towards Loosa, citing his recent fight and durability. He thinks Loosa's striking and wrestling are serviceable, and that Lazzez may have ring rust. He sets a hypothetical line of Loosa -135.

"if i had to set the line i would say angelusa minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Daniel Levi leans Mounir Lazzez, believing he is the more talented fighter with higher upside, but questions his mental state after a crushing loss to Warlley Alves where he cracked under pressure. He notes Lazzez's impressive debut against Razak Alhassan (194 strikes attempted, 4/4 takedowns) but worries if he has recovered mentally. Loosa is a physical wrestler who could grind out a decision if Lazzez is broken. Levi is encouraged that Lazzez moved to Vegas and trains with Sean Strickland and other tough guys, suggesting he is still committed.

Mentions Lazzez's takedown defense and Loosa's grinding style
"I'm gonna go with munir lazez to get this one down."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick, noting the fight was just announced and he hasn't done tape on Loosa. He leans towards Loosa but is uncertain.

"i'm leaning towards angelusa i think i'll just lose so we'll be a little bit cleaner with the striking technique"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ange Loosa

The MMA Guru picks Ange Loosa (referred to as Zaleski dos Santos), citing his experience and technical striking. He notes Loosa's win over Muslim Salikhov and competitive fight with Benoît Saint-Denis. He expects a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win.

unanimous decision 29-28 or 30-27
"alessio zaleski dos santos gets the decision win no upset there in my opinion"
LOSS vs Warlley Alves
TKO (body kicks and punches) R1 2:35 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Warlley Alves 1 17 of 21 80% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:36
Mounir Lazzez 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Warlley Alves 17 of 21 80% 9 of 12 7 of 8 1 of 1 7 of 9 4 of 6 6 of 6
Mounir Lazzez 2 of 2 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

Lazzez by KO in round 2; under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm going to take liz to win i think the first couple of minutes are going to be extremely extremely sketchy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i love munir to win in this fight i it's hard for me to see truly how he gets finished"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with muni lazers by third round tko because wale alves can't fight for longer than a round"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mounir Lazzez 0 67 of 133 50% 70 of 136 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:31
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 98 of 177 55% 114 of 194 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mounir Lazzez 0 39 of 83 46% 42 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 41 of 82 50% 41 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:16
2 Mounir Lazzez 0 18 of 31 58% 18 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 45 of 76 59% 58 of 89 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:09
3 Mounir Lazzez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:31
Abdul Razak Alhassan 0 12 of 19 63% 15 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mounir Lazzez 67 of 133 50% 49 of 108 6 of 6 12 of 19 61 of 119 6 of 14 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 98 of 177 55% 51 of 118 25 of 36 22 of 23 78 of 151 14 of 20 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mounir Lazzez 39 of 83 46% 30 of 70 5 of 5 4 of 8 38 of 81 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 41 of 82 50% 14 of 48 11 of 18 16 of 16 41 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mounir Lazzez 18 of 31 58% 12 of 23 0 of 0 6 of 8 18 of 28 0 of 3 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 45 of 76 59% 31 of 58 10 of 13 4 of 5 31 of 58 12 of 16 2 of 2
3 Mounir Lazzez 10 of 19 52% 7 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 10 5 of 9 0 of 0
Abdul Razak Alhassan 12 of 19 63% 6 of 12 4 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 12 2 of 3 4 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Abdul Razak Alhassan

Big Brady picks Abdul Razak Alhassan, citing his insane power and 100% knockout rate. He notes that Lazzez gets hit too much, which is a recipe for disaster against a power puncher like Alhassan. He predicts a first-round knockout, calling it an easy pick and suggesting it could be parlayable.

Could be parlayable; predicts first-round knockout
"pretty easy pic here all us on I think it could be parlay abou if you're doing you know a couple fighters in a parlay"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Abdul Razak Alhassan

Daniel Levi picks Abdul Razak Alhassan by first-round knockout, citing his best knockout power in the welterweight division. He notes that even with a missed weight and potential cardio issues, Alhassan's power is always there and he expects a violent finish.

by first-round knockout
"I'm gonna say Abdul Razak Al Hassan wins by first-round knockout here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Abdul Razak Alhassan

The Guru picks Abdul Razak Alhassan, who is returning after a long layoff due to legal issues (proven innocent). He believes Alhassan will have pent-up rage and take it out on Mounir Lazzez. Alhassan has better wins (Niko Price, Abubakar Nurmagomedov) and KO power, while Lazzez's best opponents are not at that level. The Guru predicts a first-round KO.

first round KO
"I think he's gonna come back with a vengeance he's been proven innocent I believe fingers crossed it's a terrible crime to be convicted of that still he's been proven innocent he's gotten out of it he hasn't fought in …"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

Big Brady likes Mounir Lazzez's cardio and chin, noting he took Abdul Razak Alhassan's best shots. He criticizes Warlley Alves's gas tank, saying he gasses early. He predicts Lazzez will survive early grappling exchanges and take over in the second round, knocking out Alves. He suggests under 2.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision as good plays.

Lazzez by KO in round 2; under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"i'm going to take liz to win i think the first couple of minutes are going to be extremely extremely sketchy"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The host is confident in Mounir Lazzez due to his striking versatility, reach advantage, and ability to maintain distance. He believes Warlley Alves has a narrow path to victory (submission or early KO) and that Lazzez will pick him apart, potentially finishing in the second or third round. He notes Lazzez's only loss is to a top prospect.

under 2.5 rounds at -115
"i love munir to win in this fight i it's hard for me to see truly how he gets finished"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Mounir Lazzez

The MMA Guru picks Mounir Lazzez, citing Alves' tendency to gas after the first round and Lazzez's patience and ability to turn the tide in later rounds, as shown in his debut against Abdul Razak Alhassan. He notes Lazzez has reach and height advantages, and predicts a third-round TKO after Alves' early onslaught fades.

third round TKO
"i'm going to go with muni lazers by third round tko because wale alves can't fight for longer than a round"