Career Averages - Viviane Araújo
Career Averages - Roxanne Modafferi
Viviane Araújo
Roxanne Modafferi
Viviane Araújo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 102 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 1 | 8:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:43 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 23 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 2:52 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 20 of 43 | 46% | 25 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tracy Cortez | 0 | 30 of 40 | 75% | 54 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 51 | 43% | 16 of 45 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 48 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 65 of 103 | 63% | 53 of 82 | 8 of 14 | 4 of 7 | 24 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 39 of 45 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 15 of 20 | 75% | 10 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 12 of 29 | 41% | 8 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 20 of 43 | 46% | 15 of 33 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tracy Cortez | 30 of 40 | 75% | 28 of 35 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 28 |
Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.
Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.
The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.
The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 48 of 85 | 56% | 105 of 152 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:25 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 58 of 132 | 43% | 76 of 155 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 3:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 20 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 22 of 65 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 49 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 16 of 20 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 30 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Karine Silva | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 38 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 48 of 85 | 56% | 34 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 41 of 76 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Karine Silva | 58 of 132 | 43% | 26 of 83 | 10 of 19 | 22 of 30 | 45 of 117 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Karine Silva | 22 of 65 | 33% | 10 of 43 | 1 of 6 | 11 of 16 | 21 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 25 | 56% | 11 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Karine Silva | 11 of 15 | 73% | 8 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 30 | 56% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Karine Silva | 25 of 52 | 48% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 10 | 10 of 13 | 17 of 42 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)
Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.
Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.
Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.
Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.
Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.
Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.
Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.
The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.
Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.
Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 0 | 26 of 67 | 38% | 63 of 110 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 6:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 38 of 128 | 29% | 65 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 0 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 36 of 43 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 58 | 31% | 27 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natália Silva | 26 of 67 | 38% | 20 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 38 of 128 | 29% | 24 of 103 | 8 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 38 of 128 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natália Silva | 8 of 15 | 53% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 8 of 32 | 25% | 5 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Natália Silva | 9 of 21 | 42% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Natália Silva | 9 of 31 | 29% | 8 of 27 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 18 of 58 | 31% | 9 of 44 | 5 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.
Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.
Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.
Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.
Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.
The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 60 of 126 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 64 of 100 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 7:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 30 | 46% | 14 of 30 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 24 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 41 of 101 | 40% | 29 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 31 of 88 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 24 of 46 | 52% | 15 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 14 of 30 | 46% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 29 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Jennifer Maia | 8 of 14 | 57% | 5 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.
Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.
The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.
Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.
The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 0 | 46 of 115 | 40% | 86 of 162 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 98 of 183 | 53% | 205 of 320 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 35 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 48 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:25 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 15 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 81 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 58 of 97 | 59% | 76 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Ribas | 46 of 115 | 40% | 37 of 105 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 98 of 183 | 53% | 71 of 149 | 11 of 16 | 16 of 18 | 93 of 176 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Ribas | 18 of 48 | 37% | 13 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 31 of 71 | 43% | 20 of 58 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 9 | 31 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Amanda Ribas | 4 of 8 | 50% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 9 of 15 | 60% | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | |
| 3 | Amanda Ribas | 24 of 59 | 40% | 21 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 58 of 97 | 59% | 44 of 78 | 6 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 58 of 97 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.
Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.
Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.
Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.
Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.
Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.
Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.
The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.
Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 0 | 153 of 311 | 49% | 193 of 353 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 126 of 264 | 47% | 148 of 288 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 32 of 66 | 48% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 38 of 73 | 52% | 57 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 26 of 56 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 34 of 64 | 53% | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 36 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 30 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 24 of 52 | 46% | 32 of 61 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | 153 of 311 | 49% | 101 of 243 | 33 of 45 | 19 of 23 | 143 of 298 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 126 of 264 | 47% | 103 of 235 | 17 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 124 of 261 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexa Grasso | 32 of 66 | 48% | 24 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 30 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 27 of 52 | 51% | 23 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexa Grasso | 38 of 73 | 52% | 26 of 60 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Viviane Araújo | 20 of 50 | 40% | 15 of 44 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Alexa Grasso | 34 of 64 | 53% | 20 of 45 | 9 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 34 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 30 of 54 | 55% | 25 of 48 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexa Grasso | 24 of 47 | 51% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 25 of 56 | 44% | 19 of 50 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexa Grasso | 25 of 61 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 24 of 52 | 46% | 21 of 46 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.
Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.
Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.
Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.
Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.
Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.
The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.
Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 39 of 79 | 49% | 96 of 160 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 10:40 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 64 of 103 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 31 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Andrea Lee | 1 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 29 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 48 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 13 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 17 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:26 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 39 of 79 | 49% | 25 of 63 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 32 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 13 |
| Andrea Lee | 47 of 82 | 57% | 34 of 65 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 64 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 18 of 34 | 52% | 11 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 7 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 14 of 27 | 51% | 10 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Andrea Lee | 9 of 10 | 90% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 7 of 18 | 38% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Andrea Lee | 13 of 21 | 61% | 10 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.
Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 127 of 292 | 43% | 135 of 300 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 89 of 196 | 45% | 129 of 238 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 43 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 76 | 46% | 37 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 58 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:06 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 55 of 125 | 44% | 55 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 35 of 92 | 38% | 35 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 127 of 292 | 43% | 87 of 236 | 31 of 46 | 9 of 10 | 121 of 286 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 89 of 196 | 45% | 60 of 162 | 24 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 85 of 192 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 37 of 91 | 40% | 21 of 67 | 13 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 33 of 87 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 32 of 56 | 57% | 17 of 38 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 29 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 76 | 46% | 24 of 62 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 22 of 48 | 45% | 19 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 55 of 125 | 44% | 42 of 107 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Viviane Araújo | 35 of 92 | 38% | 24 of 79 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 34 of 91 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.
Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.
The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.
Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.
Roxanne Modafferi - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 120 of 358 | 33% | 148 of 390 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 229 of 393 | 58% | 230 of 395 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 44 of 135 | 32% | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 130 | 55% | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 35 of 118 | 29% | 40 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 86 of 142 | 60% | 86 of 142 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 41 of 105 | 39% | 64 of 132 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 72 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 120 of 358 | 33% | 98 of 330 | 20 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 112 of 347 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 229 of 393 | 58% | 187 of 348 | 22 of 25 | 20 of 20 | 225 of 387 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 44 of 135 | 32% | 40 of 129 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 44 of 135 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 130 | 55% | 55 of 111 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 72 of 130 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 35 of 118 | 29% | 28 of 109 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 34 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 86 of 142 | 60% | 73 of 129 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 84 of 140 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Casey O'Neill | 41 of 105 | 39% | 30 of 92 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 95 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 71 of 121 | 58% | 59 of 108 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 69 of 117 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.
Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.
Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.
O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.
Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taila Santos | 0 | 18 of 92 | 19% | 43 of 124 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 1 | 55 of 95 | 57% | 118 of 164 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taila Santos | 0 | 6 of 24 | 25% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 18 of 30 | 60% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:50 | |
| 2 | Taila Santos | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 34 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 3 | Taila Santos | 0 | 8 of 56 | 14% | 10 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 1 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 49 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taila Santos | 18 of 92 | 19% | 13 of 85 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 16 of 90 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 55 of 95 | 57% | 38 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 9 | 40 of 72 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taila Santos | 6 of 24 | 25% | 3 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 18 of 30 | 60% | 10 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Taila Santos | 4 of 12 | 33% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 3 | Taila Santos | 8 of 56 | 14% | 6 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 28 of 48 | 58% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.
Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.
Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.
Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.
Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.
The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.
Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.
The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 0 | 46 of 184 | 25% | 49 of 193 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 86 of 198 | 43% | 100 of 214 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 12 of 61 | 19% | 12 of 63 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 34 of 77 | 44% | 37 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 21 of 71 | 29% | 23 of 73 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 32 of 73 | 43% | 37 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 14 of 57 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 26 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Araújo | 46 of 184 | 25% | 40 of 177 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 181 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 86 of 198 | 43% | 79 of 187 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 85 of 192 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viviane Araújo | 12 of 61 | 19% | 10 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 34 of 77 | 44% | 30 of 69 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 34 of 77 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Viviane Araújo | 21 of 71 | 29% | 18 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 32 of 73 | 43% | 30 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Viviane Araújo | 13 of 52 | 25% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 20 of 48 | 41% | 19 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 3 |
Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.
The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 60 of 169 | 35% | 129 of 267 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:49 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 97 of 189 | 51% | 118 of 210 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 1:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 54 of 80 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 29 of 83 | 34% | 30 of 90 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 55 of 94 | 58% | 62 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 45 of 97 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 62 | 45% | 35 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 60 of 169 | 35% | 56 of 162 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 57 of 165 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 97 of 189 | 51% | 50 of 128 | 23 of 36 | 24 of 25 | 89 of 178 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Andrea Lee | 14 of 33 | 42% | 3 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 29 of 83 | 34% | 28 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 55 of 94 | 58% | 35 of 71 | 12 of 15 | 8 of 8 | 52 of 89 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 19 of 59 | 32% | 17 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andrea Lee | 28 of 62 | 45% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 15 | 10 of 10 | 27 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.
The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.
The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 0 | 44 of 174 | 25% | 71 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 4:08 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 72 of 158 | 45% | 92 of 178 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 12 of 54 | 22% | 18 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 10 of 45 | 22% | 20 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:44 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 0 | 22 of 75 | 29% | 33 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 34 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Murphy | 44 of 174 | 25% | 34 of 152 | 5 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 39 of 163 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 72 of 158 | 45% | 46 of 127 | 8 of 12 | 18 of 19 | 65 of 150 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lauren Murphy | 12 of 54 | 22% | 9 of 46 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 19 of 48 | 39% | 11 of 36 | 0 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 19 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lauren Murphy | 10 of 45 | 22% | 8 of 37 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 23 of 48 | 47% | 13 of 37 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Lauren Murphy | 22 of 75 | 29% | 17 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 71 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 30 of 62 | 48% | 22 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.
Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.
Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 1 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 112 of 155 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 10:32 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 25 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 3 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 47 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:45 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 1 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 41 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:42 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:07 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 24 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:05 |
| Maycee Barber | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 19 of 43 | 44% | 17 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 11 |
| Maycee Barber | 16 of 31 | 51% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Maycee Barber | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Maycee Barber | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Maycee Barber | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.
The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.
The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 0 | 29 of 110 | 26% | 76 of 161 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:32 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 83 of 174 | 47% | 111 of 205 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 6 of 23 | 26% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 37 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 32 of 57 | 56% | 36 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 0 | 9 of 51 | 17% | 19 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 38 of 82 | 46% | 51 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Maia | 29 of 110 | 26% | 25 of 100 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 | 28 of 109 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 83 of 174 | 47% | 72 of 158 | 9 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 65 of 150 | 17 of 20 | 1 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Maia | 6 of 23 | 26% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 13 of 35 | 37% | 11 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jennifer Maia | 14 of 36 | 38% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 32 of 57 | 56% | 29 of 54 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 47 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jennifer Maia | 9 of 51 | 17% | 8 of 47 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Roxanne Modafferi | 38 of 82 | 46% | 32 of 71 | 4 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 4 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 105 of 162 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 9:00 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 87 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 30 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 44 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 31 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 3:15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 33 of 79 | 41% | 29 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 64 of 116 | 55% | 50 of 101 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 98 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 34 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 21 of 36 | 58% | 12 of 26 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.
The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.
The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.
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