UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 68"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 43
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Viviane Araújo
3.84 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
4.83 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.72 TD Avg
43.0% TD Acc.
75.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Roxanne Modafferi
3.35 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
5.7 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Viviane Araújo
Moneyline
BetWay -350
KO/TKO
BetWay +400
Submission
BetWay +900
Decision
BetWay -125
Roxanne Modafferi
Moneyline
BetWay +260
KO/TKO
BetWay +1400
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetWay +350
Viviane Araújo - Fight History
LOSS vs Tracy Cortez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 51 43% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 65 of 103 63% 102 of 143 3 of 5 60% 1 1 8:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 13 38% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 15 of 20 75% 23 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:52
2 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
3 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 30 of 40 75% 54 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 22 of 51 43% 16 of 45 3 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 65 of 103 63% 53 of 82 8 of 14 4 of 7 24 of 53 2 of 5 39 of 45
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 5 of 13 38% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 15 of 20 75% 10 of 14 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 5 1 of 2 12 of 13
2 Viviane Araújo 12 of 29 41% 8 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 20 of 43 46% 15 of 33 4 of 7 1 of 3 15 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 4
3 Viviane Araújo 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 30 of 40 75% 28 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.

Angelo says a round line over is probably the safest bet, and mentions that parlaying all women's fights for overs is a good strategy.
"I am going to slightly pick Tracy Cortez. A round line over is probably the safest bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.

Cortez wins by decision
"I got to go Cortez. Cortez to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I'm really leaning Cortez in this spot as I think her wrestling can really break out of Ujo down and this will look quite dominant for Cortez in these second and third rounds leading to her winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez. I'm going to say if there's a close decision here, which a lot of women's MMA fights end up with, I don't see them not giving it to Tracy Cortez."
WIN vs Karine Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 48 of 85 56% 105 of 152 3 of 3 100% 1 0 2:25
Karine Silva 0 58 of 132 43% 76 of 155 1 of 7 14% 1 0 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 20 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Karine Silva 0 22 of 65 33% 22 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 25 56% 49 of 64 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:04
Karine Silva 0 11 of 15 73% 16 of 20 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:37
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 30 56% 36 of 55 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:21
Karine Silva 0 25 of 52 48% 38 of 70 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 48 of 85 56% 34 of 70 4 of 5 10 of 10 41 of 76 1 of 1 6 of 8
Karine Silva 58 of 132 43% 26 of 83 10 of 19 22 of 30 45 of 117 11 of 13 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 13 of 26 1 of 1 3 of 3 16 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Karine Silva 22 of 65 33% 10 of 43 1 of 6 11 of 16 21 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 25 56% 11 of 21 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 5 of 7
Karine Silva 11 of 15 73% 8 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 11 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 30 56% 10 of 23 2 of 2 5 of 5 16 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 1
Karine Silva 25 of 52 48% 8 of 29 7 of 10 10 of 13 17 of 42 8 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Silva (-258), Araujo (+210)

Round 1
It’s a battle of momentum as the main card rails on, with Araujo (12-6, 6-5 UFC) struggling at the upper echelon of the flyweight division as of late. The same cannot be said for the younger Silva (18-4, 4-0 UFC), who has cruised through opposition with three subs in her four UFC wins to date. Referee Marc Goddard draws the charge for this 125-pound contest, and it kicks off as the ladies touch ‘em up. Silva marches forward behind a front kick to start, and she aims it a few more times to keep Araujo away from her. Silva uses it to try to close the distance and wrap up her opponent, but Araujo gets away. Silva slaps her with a leg kick, and a second is met with a one-two. Silva crashes the pocket and gets off a leg kick, and she whiffs with a huge overhand right. Araujo splits the guard with a right hand, and Silva pays it no mind and keeps plodding onward. Silva sticks out a jab, and Araujo puts three punches on her before sliding to the side. Silva crashes forward, and Araujo is able to wriggle away before getting clinched. Silva kicks at the front leg and is countered by her fellow countrywoman, and she keeps chasing until getting tagged with a straight right hand. Silva again shakes off the strong strike and trades a low kick with her foe. Araujo steps to the side and sinks in a right hand around the guard, and she stays away from a number of inaccurate kicks. Silva does reach her with a low kick, and the high kick that follows is easily blocked. Araujo moves from side to side, not falling into a pattern and easily shrugging off a Silva shot. Araujo rings her opponent’s bell with a one-two, and Silva does not slow with her constant kick approach. Silva gets off a left hand, and the swings that follow all go wide. Silva paws out with a big right hand, clubbing “Vivi” on the side of the dome. A second shakes Araujo up further, and Silva stalks her down and hits her a third time. Araujo strikes back, and is warned for outstretched fingers. The horn sounds as Silva rushes into attack, and they crash heads together when Goddard grabs them, resulting in a bloody nose for Araujo.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 2
Silva starts off the round as aggressive as ever, with her front kick immediately drawing more blood from Araujo’s nose. Araujo rushes into action, fighting behind several punch combinations that all connect before Silva can strike back. Araujo hammers the front leg with a kick, and Silva runs towards her and gets hold of her against the fencing. Araujo escapes before absorbing anything of note, but blood is trickling out of that nose quicker than before. Araujo backs Silva off with a one-two, and a second two-strike combo finds the mark as Silva rushes towards her. Silva blasts Araujo in the face with an overhand right, and Araujo backs up into the wall and has no way to escape the second that catches her cleanly. When Silva tries to use the close proximity to take the fight down, Araujo repeatedly grabs the fence to keep herself afloat. Silva sells out for a throw, and Araujo turns her around. Silva uses the body lock to lower Araujo to the floor, her own nose bloodied as well. Araujo gets busy off her back with punches, and she throws her legs up and grabs hold of an armbar. Araujo rolls to her stomach and flips Silva over, and she goes belly-down to almost complete the submission. Silva keeps pushing through it, turning the proper direction to survive the maneuver and reposition herself to side control. With Araujo’s nose busted, she gasps for air with her mouth open. Silva transitions her way to north-south position, and she wraps up a brabo choke when Araujo sits up. Silva rolls to her back to lock things up, and Araujo fights her arms and pushes off the knee to get some space. Araujo turns through it to get into north-south, and she considers wrapping up an armbar or another armlock. Araujo opens it up with several unblocked punches, ending the round sitting on Silva’s face but not in a fun way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva

Round 3
The Brazilians hug it out to begin the last round, with scores possibly all over the map. Silva marches forward and shoots in for a takedown with Araujo jabbing her, and the ensuing scramble results in Araujo winding up on top somehow. A bit of blood on both women plus fatigue equals strange positioning. Araujo bails on the position and backs off, allowing Silva to stand. Araujo backs off and lands a low kick and a right hand, and Silva jabs her back in the midsection. Araujo reaches out with a right hand over the top, and Silva’s responses are labored and flailing. Araujo catches a front kick and tosses Silva to her back, with Silva appearing to flop to her back in part due to exhaustion. Silva puts her hands behind her head, with Araujo kicking her legs until Goddard stands her up. Araujo leans back from a head kick to boot Silva in the ribs, and they trade kicks until Araujo drills her with an uppercut. Silva plods forward and absorbs a solid right hand, and she takes a step back and launches several front kicks that all come up short. Araujo kicks the front leg, and she catches a kick her direction and tosses Silva to the mat. Silva again needs Goddard to get between them and let her up, and the fans in the building do not approve of Silva’s strategy. Silva walks into punches and kicks, her face swelling up with a mouse growing on her forehead. Silva’s front kick is swatted away, and she flops to her back. Araujo tells her to stand back up, and she watches Silva’s labored punches soar past her. Silva uses them to get hold of Araujo, and she drives a knee into her jaw. Silva gloms onto her opponent in the clinch, with the occasional knee coming until Araujo head-and-arm throws her to the ground. Silva lands strangely with her head squished against the cage floor and wall, and she is held there until the strange fight closes. Judges may have their hands full here.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (30-27 Araujo)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Araujo)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Araujo (29-28 Silva)

The Official Result
Viviane Araujo def. Karine Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Angelo picks Karine Silva, noting her powerful grappling and constant submission threats. He acknowledges Viviane Araújo is tough with good takedown defense, but believes Silva will get timely takedowns. He finds the -265 odds too steep to bet and is unsure about prop bets due to Silva's finishing rate.

Angelo says he will likely leave this fight on the table due to the high juice on Silva at -265, and is unsure about betting inside the distance.
"the pick is going to be Kini I think it's going to be a close one"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Big Brady picks Karine Silva, noting that Viviane Araújo is older and slowing down. He acknowledges Araújo's elite takedown defense and good striking volume, but believes Silva has more power and can get takedowns. He thinks Silva's cardio is better than Araújo's, who has slowed in many fights. He predicts a decision win for Silva, though he admits the line is too wide.

"I'll take Silva to win this fight and I'll take her to win this fight by by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Cody picks Karine Silva, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take down and neutralize opponents. He notes Araújo is 38 and has been taken down by lesser grapplers, but Silva's striking is not great and she may struggle to finish. Cody expects a decision win for Silva, possibly by submission if she gets the neck.

"I'll take killer Karin but it's bit of a deep price tag for me personally and I'm not like super over the moon confidence"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Connor also picks Silva, agreeing that she has more dynamic moments and can out-wrestle Araújo. He notes that Araújo's striking is predictable and she struggles against athletic opponents. Connor thinks Silva's reactive takedowns and submission threat will be key.

"I think i'll take silva as well..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Vreeland picks Silva because Araújo has struggled against younger, faster opponents. He notes Araújo's only recent win was over Jennifer Maia due to a speed advantage, but Silva is not slower. Silva has good volume, speed, and grappling, including a dangerous guillotine. Vreeland thinks Silva's all-around game will be too much for Araújo.

"I think speed volume little bit of grappling all gonna be too much for Vivy here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Daniel Vreeland picks Karine Silva, citing her dominance in getting fights to the mat and her submission threats. He acknowledges Araújo's takedown defense and striking output but believes Silva's assertiveness and ability to dictate the pace will lead to a win. He does not confidently predict a submission but expects Silva to control the fight.

"I just think there's a certain dominance and confidence and assertiveness about how karini goes about getting the fights to the mat"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Fox picks Silva, calling her 'killer' and noting she is good everywhere and finishes fights. He agrees with Vreeland that Silva is the better fighter and expects her to win.

"I'm taking uh killer karini Silva as well... she's good everywhere and she you know finishes people everywhere as well"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Lucrative James picks Karine Silva confidently, noting she is on an upward trajectory while Araújo is declining. He believes Silva has sharper BJJ and can capitalize on Araújo's takedown attempts to take the back or snatch a front choke. He also thinks Silva can land a knockdown on the feet, as Araújo gets hurt often. He predicts Silva wins inside the distance, though a close decision is possible. He sees value in Silva at -275 compared to Oliveira at the same odds.

wins inside the distance
"I think Karine Silva can snap up some type of front choke or maybe take the back after a failed shot from aruo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Karine Silva

The host thinks Silva is not as good as the odds suggest but believes her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds will wear out Araújo, who may have early striking success. He predicts Silva grinds it out, possibly getting a submission but officially wins by decision.

submission in second or third round
"Silva I do not think is as good as the odds are making her seem but I think her eventual grappling approach in the second and third rounds is really going to wear out aruo who could have some success …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Paul leans toward Karine Silva but has reservations. He notes Silva's grappling is solid but she lacks ground and pound, and Araújo has never been submitted. Paul thinks the fight could be competitive and might go to a split decision, so he's considering a split decision prop. He's not confident enough to bet heavily.

split decision prop (considered)
"I can see a world where I put lawn top as a PRP pick but uh I'm gonna look at it a few more times before I uh go betting anything with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo as an underdog, not sold on Karine Silva's hype. He notes Araújo's competitive fights with Natalia Silva and Alexa Grasso, and believes she can survive Silva's grappling. He doubts Silva's finishing ability.

"I'm going to go with uh Vivian arajo I think she's tricking I don't I'm not sold on Karen Silva being this upcoming monster"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Karine Silva

Zane picks Silva, noting that both fighters are processless but Silva has more dynamic opportunities. He thinks Silva's speed and opportunistic grappling can catch Araújo, who is one-dimensional and losing athleticism. Zane believes Silva has a better chance of finishing or winning rounds.

"I think in that realm i'm gonna pick carini silva..."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 26 of 67 38% 63 of 110 1 of 9 11% 0 0 6:01
Viviane Araújo 0 38 of 128 29% 65 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 8 of 15 53% 36 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:31
Viviane Araújo 0 8 of 32 25% 16 of 40 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 9 of 21 42% 18 of 35 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:25
Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 38 31% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 9 of 31 29% 9 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:05
Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 26 of 67 38% 20 of 58 1 of 3 5 of 6 25 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 38 of 128 29% 24 of 103 8 of 16 6 of 9 38 of 128 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 8 of 32 25% 5 of 26 2 of 5 1 of 1 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 9 of 21 42% 6 of 18 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 12 of 38 31% 10 of 33 1 of 2 1 of 3 12 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 9 of 31 29% 8 of 27 0 of 2 1 of 2 9 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 18 of 58 31% 9 of 44 5 of 9 4 of 5 18 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is very high on Natália Silva, calling her a potential top-five fighter. He notes her footwork, takedown defense (92%), and power that carries into later rounds. He believes she will outclass Viviane Araújo everywhere and get the win.

"I think Natalia Silva absolutely gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady picks Natália Silva to win by decision. He notes that Silva is 10 years younger and has better cardio, while Araújo slows down significantly as fights go on. He expects the fight to be competitive early, possibly with Araújo trying to wrestle, but Silva will take over as the fight progresses and win a decision.

decision
"I kind of see it being somewhat competitive early on ... but as the fight goes on I do like Silva to take over do the better work have the better cardio and win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody picks Silva, praising her evolution and athleticism. He notes Araújo's cardio issues and inconsistency, expecting Silva to win a decision or possibly get a late finish. He likes Silva by decision prop to avoid the heavy moneyline.

Natália Silva by decision
"I went with the Natalia Silva by decision prop simply because I think she wins this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva has looked unstoppable in the UFC with her lateral movement, kicks from distance, and submissions off her back. Araújo is a crisp striker early but fades as fights go on, and Silva's volume and output should allow her to win a decision. The host suggests playing Silva live if Araújo wins round one, or using her as a parlay piece.

Live betting opportunity: if Araújo wins round one, Silva could be available at -200 to -150. Also mentioned as a parlay piece.
"I think it's ultimately going to be the decision fighting style of Silva her output and volume heavy style which will allow her to go out there and get the decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Paul picks Silva by KO, taking a small stab at +540. He notes Silva's power and Araújo's toughness but thinks Silva's evolving skill set can get the finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is too steep.

Natália Silva by KO +540
"I took Natalia Silva by KO plus 540"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru picks Natália Silva over Viviane Araújo, despite a bizarre tangent about fighters' relationship status. He acknowledges Araújo is good but believes Silva has the skill level to make something happen. He notes Silva's wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius, Mayra Bueno Silva, and Andrea Lee, and thinks Araújo may be on the downswing. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

by decision
"I am still going to go Natalia Silva... I think Natalia Silva is actually the skill level to make something happen here... I'm going to bet she's on the down swing and this is where Natalia Silva can get one …"
WIN vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 41 of 101 40% 60 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 24 of 46 52% 64 of 100 2 of 6 33% 1 0 7:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 24 of 58 41% 28 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Viviane Araújo 0 0 of 5 0% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 2 of 2 100% 24 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:35
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 8 of 14 57% 26 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 41 of 101 40% 29 of 87 2 of 4 10 of 10 31 of 88 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 24 of 46 52% 15 of 36 4 of 5 5 of 5 22 of 43 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 24 of 58 41% 15 of 48 2 of 3 7 of 7 21 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 30 46% 8 of 23 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 0 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 29 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 8 of 14 57% 5 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.

Already placed 1 unit at -141
"Jennifer mayia at minus 141 is a great deal I think she dominates this fight great deal I already have a unit on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.

"I'm going to take Vivan aruu here with little to no confidence it's hard to have confidence in somebody with no cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.

"I'll take Viviane Araújo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.

"give me Maya here I think she uh again after I close first round she should should start to pull away in the second and third rounds where she should be able to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.

Over 2.5 rounds at -450
"I'll lean towards Jennifer Maia just based on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jennifer Meer over Vivian arajo I think she's got way better boxing"
LOSS vs Amanda Ribas
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Ribas 0 46 of 115 40% 86 of 162 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 98 of 183 53% 205 of 320 2 of 2 100% 0 0 8:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Ribas 0 18 of 48 37% 35 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 31 of 71 43% 48 of 91 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:25
2 Amanda Ribas 0 4 of 8 50% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 9 of 15 60% 81 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:40
3 Amanda Ribas 0 24 of 59 40% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 58 of 97 59% 76 of 117 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Ribas 46 of 115 40% 37 of 105 5 of 6 4 of 4 45 of 114 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 98 of 183 53% 71 of 149 11 of 16 16 of 18 93 of 176 0 of 0 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Ribas 18 of 48 37% 13 of 42 3 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 31 of 71 43% 20 of 58 4 of 4 7 of 9 31 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Amanda Ribas 4 of 8 50% 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 6
3 Amanda Ribas 24 of 59 40% 21 of 56 1 of 1 2 of 2 24 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 58 of 97 59% 44 of 78 6 of 11 8 of 8 58 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Angelo picks Amanda Ribas, citing her faster striking and better cardio. He notes that Viviane Araújo is more dangerous early but fades as the fight goes on. Angelo believes Ribas can point her way to a decision if she stays on the outside and works her striking.

"Amanda he boss is going to win this fight um I think the odds are probably probably good"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo but is hesitant due to her cardio issues. He notes she has 90% takedown defense and is the better striker, but she tends to slow down after the first round. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Araújo, acknowledging Ribas may take the third round.

"I will take Vivian every yujo to win this fight by 28 29-28 decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, believing her takedown defense and striking will be enough to keep the fight standing and win rounds. He notes her cardio issues but thinks she can win two of three rounds. He sees value at plus money.

"I'm gonna go with Viviana ruizio actually it's basically a pick em type fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Connor picks Viviane Araújo, believing her improved striking and range management will allow her to outwork Ribas. He notes that Ribas's striking is technically poor and she relies on aggression and transitions, but Araújo's takedown defense is solid and she is a better athlete. Connor thinks Ribas will struggle to get the fight to the ground and will be picked apart on the feet.

"I guess I I like I like Viviana here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Jacob picks Amanda Ribas but is scared, noting that Araújo is dangerous early and hits hard. He believes Ribas can take over in the second and third rounds as Araújo's cardio fades. Jacob does not have a straight bet on Ribas due to the risk.

"I'm picking Amanda but honestly I'm scared out of my mind"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is a solid striker with good power and leg kicks. Ribas has average striking and gets flustered against better strikers. Araújo's takedown defense should hold up, keeping the fight standing where she has the advantage, and she wins a decision.

"I think her more effective striking style is going to allow her to distance herself from he boss here... I think that we'll see Russo just beat her to the punch over and over again battering her on route to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

Paul picks Ribas, citing her youth and takedown ability. He thinks she can get takedowns and control the fight. He acknowledges it's a close fight and won't bet it, but for picks he goes with Ribas.

"I'll be picking hibis but uh but yeah not not one that I feel like I can really attack"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Amanda Ribas

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Ribas, citing her youth and potential versus Araújo's age. He believes Ribas has a submission advantage and a better chin, predicting a close 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Amanda Ribas over Vivian arawaho... I think she gets this one done by again a close 29-28 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Zane also picks Araújo, agreeing that her improved striking and ability to stay at range will be key. He notes that Ribas's best wins are against lower-level competition and that her grappling success may not translate against Araújo's strong takedown defense. Zane adds that Araújo is more accurate and self-contained, and Ribas's aggressive style will leave her open to counters.

"I think I got a pic vivier Aja."
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 153 of 311 49% 193 of 353 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 126 of 264 47% 148 of 288 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 32 of 66 48% 33 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 27 of 52 51% 30 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
2 Alexa Grasso 0 38 of 73 52% 57 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 20 of 50 40% 26 of 56 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:38
3 Alexa Grasso 0 34 of 64 53% 34 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 30 of 54 55% 30 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexa Grasso 0 24 of 47 51% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 25 of 56 44% 30 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
5 Alexa Grasso 0 25 of 61 40% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 24 of 52 46% 32 of 61 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 153 of 311 49% 101 of 243 33 of 45 19 of 23 143 of 298 9 of 12 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 126 of 264 47% 103 of 235 17 of 22 6 of 7 124 of 261 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 32 of 66 48% 24 of 55 5 of 7 3 of 4 30 of 63 2 of 3 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 27 of 52 51% 23 of 47 1 of 2 3 of 3 27 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 38 of 73 52% 26 of 60 8 of 9 4 of 4 37 of 71 0 of 1 1 of 1
Viviane Araújo 20 of 50 40% 15 of 44 5 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 48 0 of 0 2 of 2
3 Alexa Grasso 34 of 64 53% 20 of 45 9 of 13 5 of 6 34 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 30 of 54 55% 25 of 48 4 of 5 1 of 1 30 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexa Grasso 24 of 47 51% 15 of 36 5 of 7 4 of 4 20 of 42 4 of 5 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 25 of 56 44% 19 of 50 5 of 5 1 of 1 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Alexa Grasso 25 of 61 40% 16 of 47 6 of 9 3 of 5 22 of 58 3 of 3 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 24 of 52 46% 21 of 46 2 of 4 1 of 2 24 of 51 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso, emphasizing her takedown defense (60% but effective against top wrestlers like Carla Esparza) and striking volume. He notes that Viviane Araújo is a grappler who can strike but has a negative striking differential and conditioning issues. He believes Grasso will defend enough takedowns to out-strike Araújo and win a decision, especially as Araújo fades in later rounds.

Fight likely goes five rounds; round line analysis for premium members
"I am going to pick Rosso here because even if she cannot defend all of the takedowns I think she'll be able to defend enough of them to still completely outstrike Vivi"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Big Brady picks Alexa Grasso to win by decision. He cites the five-round distance as the key factor, noting that Araújo fades in three-round fights due to her high-energy style. He expects Araújo to have early success but fade in rounds 3-5, allowing Grasso to take over. He says he would consider Araújo in a three-round fight but not at five rounds. He will not bet this fight.

"I gotta go Grosso here... I'll say decision for Grosso"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Cody picks Grasso to win, likely by decision, citing her superior volume and improved grappling. He notes that Araújo has low volume and may struggle in a five-round fight, but the price at -225 is steep. He also likes the over 90.5 significant strikes prop on PrizePicks, as Grasso has reached that in three-round fights and this is five rounds.

over 90.5 significant strikes for Grasso on PrizePicks
"I'm picking Grasso to win likely by decision but the prop on that doesn't make me all that excited."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Connor also picks Grasso, emphasizing that since the Harig loss, wrestling has been the main problem for Grasso, but Araujo can get one-tracked and lose to fighters like Jessica Eye. He thinks Grasso can create enough challenge to make Araujo fall into traps. He notes that Grasso has had inconsistent performances but still favors her.

"I will take Alexa Grosso as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Grasso has youth, cardio, footwork, and combination striking advantages. Araújo has power but tends to slow down in later rounds, and this is a five-round fight. Grasso trains at altitude and has shown great cardio, while Araújo's best path is an early KO. Grasso should take over after the first round and win by decision, possibly finding a late finish. The host mentions being the 'women's MMA whisperer' and is confident in Grasso despite the chalky line.

Grasso by KO +1600 (hedge), Grasso by decision +130, rounds 4-5 decision prop
"I think Alexa Grosso this is a perfect setup spot for her to go out there and establish herself in the main event and establish herself as one of the better 125ers out there as well so give me Alexa …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Paul sees this as a great live betting opportunity. He thinks Araújo may have early success with takedowns and physicality, but her cardio is suspect at 35 and in her first five-round fight. He notes that Araújo has tired in third rounds historically, and Grasso's output should win out over five rounds. He picks Grasso by decision but doesn't love it.

live betting on Araújo early, then Grasso later
"I'm thinking that Grosso is going to win because it's the five round volume will take it over in the long run so Samuel Progresso Grosso by decision but again don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso, acknowledging that 90% of people are picking her. He likes Araújo as an underdog but believes in Grasso's improvements, especially her hands. He notes Grasso's first-round finish over Joanne Calderwood and win over Maycee Barber. He predicts a technical boxing match with Grasso stuffing takedowns and winning the first three rounds, ultimately 48-47 by decision.

prediction: 48-47 decision
"I am picking grassa she's a big favorite"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Zane picks Grasso, citing her sharper punching and ability to land cleaner shots over five rounds. He notes that Grasso has been putting together nice combination counters in the pocket, similar to Robert Whittaker, and that Araujo is very hittable. He acknowledges Araujo's wrestling and grappling could be a factor but believes Grasso's scrambling and clinch work will be enough to win.

"I'm going to go with you because if I think of this as a fight where I don't expect either woman to get finished and Grosso's a very scrambling grappler... then I have to depend on Grosso to land the …"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 39 of 79 49% 96 of 160 3 of 5 60% 2 0 10:40
Andrea Lee 1 47 of 82 57% 64 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 34 52% 31 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Andrea Lee 1 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 27 51% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:26
Andrea Lee 0 9 of 10 90% 13 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 7 of 18 38% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Andrea Lee 0 13 of 21 61% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 39 of 79 49% 25 of 63 9 of 11 5 of 5 32 of 66 0 of 0 7 of 13
Andrea Lee 47 of 82 57% 34 of 65 9 of 13 4 of 4 36 of 64 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 18 of 34 52% 11 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 25 of 51 49% 19 of 42 4 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 34 6 of 10 4 of 7
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 27 51% 10 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 9
Andrea Lee 9 of 10 90% 5 of 6 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 1
Andrea Lee 13 of 21 61% 10 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.

"i think this lead thing is the same thing like physically lisa as strong as anybody the technique's just not quite there in the takedown defense she shorted up a little bit and she still stops more takedowns than she …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.

"i would say cody just be careful don't put this all the way up but like ticket one ticket two because it could be a situation where arujo takes her down is able to hold top control"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 127 of 292 43% 135 of 300 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 89 of 196 45% 129 of 238 1 of 3 33% 1 0 3:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 37 of 91 40% 43 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 32 of 56 57% 36 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 76 46% 37 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 48 45% 58 of 86 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:06
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 55 of 125 44% 55 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Viviane Araújo 0 35 of 92 38% 35 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 127 of 292 43% 87 of 236 31 of 46 9 of 10 121 of 286 6 of 6 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 89 of 196 45% 60 of 162 24 of 29 5 of 5 85 of 192 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 37 of 91 40% 21 of 67 13 of 20 3 of 4 33 of 87 4 of 4 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 32 of 56 57% 17 of 38 13 of 16 2 of 2 29 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 76 46% 24 of 62 9 of 12 2 of 2 34 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 22 of 48 45% 19 of 45 2 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 55 of 125 44% 42 of 107 9 of 14 4 of 4 54 of 124 1 of 1 0 of 0
Viviane Araújo 35 of 92 38% 24 of 79 9 of 11 2 of 2 34 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Araújo is the better striker with higher volume and power. She also has takedown ability and a black belt in BJJ. Cerminara gets outlanded in most fights and relies on noise to sway judges, but with a crowd that won't work. Araújo's cardio is a concern, but she has been improving. I think she wins a decision.

"I will take viviana rougea to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody agrees with Paul, picking Chookagian. He emphasizes that Araújo has poor cardio and gives up takedowns when tired. Cody believes Chookagian's improved wrestling and defensive grappling will allow her to control the fight. He notes that Chookagian's volume and ability to stay on the outside will be effective.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes.
"i agree with you this is a spot i like from a monkey knife fight uh perspective and i would hit the double over"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Daniel Levi picks Viviane Araújo as a dog, citing her power, explosiveness, and footwork. He notes that Chookagian struggles when pressured and that Araújo can land big overhand rights. However, he is concerned about Araújo's cardio and whether she can maintain output for three rounds. Levi thinks it's a close fight and a dog-or-pass situation, but leans toward Araújo for a split decision.

dog or pass situation
"i'm going to pick vv as well i i do think it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host is confident in Chookagian, citing her endless cardio, movement, and volume. He thinks she will stay on her bicycle, jab, and leg kick, making Araújo uncomfortable and causing her to gas. He notes Araújo's takedown defense is good but Chookagian's style should nullify her. He predicts a decision win and calls minus 135 a great line.

Chookagian by decision
"i like it or 2k in here minus 135 i think is a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, noting that she only loses to the elite and has improved her wrestling and grappling. He highlights that Araújo has cardio issues and gives up takedowns when tired. Paul expects Chookagian to use her wrestling to neutralize Araújo's physicality and win the later rounds. He mentions that Chookagian's volume and defensive wrestling will be key.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (54.5 for Chookagian, 37.5 for Araújo). Fight goes to distance at -400.
"the pick officially will be caleb chicago but again this is another interesting opportunity to look at it from a live betting standpoint"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara over Viviane Araújo, praising Cerminara's underrated skills and her performance against Valentina Shevchenko. He notes Araújo lacks finishing ability and believes Cerminara's grappling and range will be key. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with caitlyn chukagi in here"
Roxanne Modafferi - Fight History
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 120 of 358 33% 148 of 390 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:06
Roxanne Modafferi 0 229 of 393 58% 230 of 395 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 44 of 135 32% 44 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 130 55% 72 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey O'Neill 0 35 of 118 29% 40 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 142 60% 86 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Casey O'Neill 0 41 of 105 39% 64 of 132 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
Roxanne Modafferi 0 71 of 121 58% 72 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 120 of 358 33% 98 of 330 20 of 25 2 of 3 112 of 347 8 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 229 of 393 58% 187 of 348 22 of 25 20 of 20 225 of 387 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 44 of 135 32% 40 of 129 3 of 4 1 of 2 44 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 130 55% 55 of 111 7 of 9 10 of 10 72 of 130 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 35 of 118 29% 28 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 34 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 142 60% 73 of 129 7 of 7 6 of 6 84 of 140 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Casey O'Neill 41 of 105 39% 30 of 92 11 of 13 0 of 0 34 of 95 7 of 10 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 71 of 121 58% 59 of 108 8 of 9 4 of 4 69 of 117 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.

parlay with Ronnie Lawrence at -110, 2 units; Casey O'Neill by decision prop
"i see a dominant one-sided decision win for casey o'neill and my favorite parlay on this card is a casey o'neill and ronnie lawrence parley i already threw two units on that and i got it at -110"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.

O'Neill by decision
"i think o'neil can take down roxy whenever she wants... write out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.

"this is a passing of the torch so to speak"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.

"just give me casey o'neill will be a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.

O'Neill by TKO in round 2 or 3; no bet advised
"i'm still picking quest here i'm she's going to be my prediction but i would not advise getting trigger happy on parlaying her in every single spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"i think she's a rifle favorite here with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.

second round ground and pound tko
"i'm going to be going with casey o'neil here"
LOSS vs Taila Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 18 of 92 19% 43 of 124 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:02
Roxanne Modafferi 1 55 of 95 57% 118 of 164 5 of 5 100% 0 0 8:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 6 of 24 25% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 18 of 30 60% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:50
2 Taila Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Roxanne Modafferi 0 9 of 17 52% 34 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:49
3 Taila Santos 0 8 of 56 14% 10 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Roxanne Modafferi 1 28 of 48 58% 49 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 18 of 92 19% 13 of 85 2 of 3 3 of 4 16 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 55 of 95 57% 38 of 75 8 of 11 9 of 9 40 of 72 8 of 9 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 6 of 24 25% 3 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 18 of 30 60% 10 of 21 7 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 20 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Taila Santos 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
3 Taila Santos 8 of 56 14% 6 of 53 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 28 of 48 58% 22 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 24 of 39 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Angelo suggests Santos by decision prop. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet for Modafferi and wins inside the distance decision no action for Modafferi at +200.
"Taylor Santos is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

"tawa santos is the real deal you know she's somebody to definitely look out for"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

"value is value and i think the value is squarely on roxanne at plus 310"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

betting advice: not laying -400
"all that said give me the superior fighter give me tyler santos is just please don't pull a stun here like please perform to the best of your abilities and you'll win this fight period"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

Jacob says he'll take a small flyer on Modafferi by submission at +1200. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet.
"I'm gonna put a wild weird bet on rockstein by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Taila Santos

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Santos by decision at -130
"i am gonna go with tyler santos and i'll pick her to win this fight via decision hit that minus one thirty i like it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

"i can't bet taylor at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

"i'm going to go with taylor santos here by unanimous decision over rocks and motor fairing"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 46 of 184 25% 49 of 193 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:39
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 198 43% 100 of 214 4 of 4 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 61 19% 12 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 34 of 77 44% 37 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:27
2 Viviane Araújo 0 21 of 71 29% 23 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 73 43% 37 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
3 Viviane Araújo 0 13 of 52 25% 14 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Roxanne Modafferi 0 20 of 48 41% 26 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 46 of 184 25% 40 of 177 2 of 3 4 of 4 45 of 181 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 198 43% 79 of 187 5 of 8 2 of 3 85 of 192 1 of 2 0 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 12 of 61 19% 10 of 59 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 34 of 77 44% 30 of 69 3 of 6 1 of 2 34 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 21 of 71 29% 18 of 68 0 of 0 3 of 3 21 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 73 43% 30 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 32 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Viviane Araújo 13 of 52 25% 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 20 of 48 41% 19 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

Araújo by decision
"i think this is an absolute disaster of a matchup for roxanne mona ferry"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

Viviane Araújo inside the distance at +280
"i'll go with arujo i'll go by a decision but i do think plus 280 for her to win inside the distance is worth a little bit of a stab"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with vivian arawajo getting the job done she's a little bit smaller i think she wins by decision 30 27"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 60 of 169 35% 129 of 267 4 of 7 57% 0 0 4:49
Andrea Lee 0 97 of 189 51% 118 of 210 3 of 4 75% 0 2 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 12 of 27 44% 54 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 33 42% 21 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:20
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 29 of 83 34% 30 of 90 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
Andrea Lee 0 55 of 94 58% 62 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:13
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 59 32% 45 of 97 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:09
Andrea Lee 0 28 of 62 45% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 60 of 169 35% 56 of 162 2 of 5 2 of 2 57 of 165 0 of 1 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 97 of 189 51% 50 of 128 23 of 36 24 of 25 89 of 178 5 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 12 of 27 44% 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 14 of 33 42% 3 of 20 5 of 6 6 of 7 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2
2 Roxanne Modafferi 29 of 83 34% 28 of 81 0 of 1 1 of 1 29 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 55 of 94 58% 35 of 71 12 of 15 8 of 8 52 of 89 2 of 4 1 of 1
3 Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 59 32% 17 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 28 of 62 45% 12 of 37 6 of 15 10 of 10 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

"andrea lee should win this fight she's better everywhere she's way more skilled"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

Lee by second round TKO; inside the distance prop if value
"I really like her in this spot um you know obviously totally worth the minus 300 this line that she's currently at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with andrea lee getting the job done unanimous decision barely out striking roxanne motor fairy every round"
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 1 19 of 43 44% 112 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 1 10:32
Maycee Barber 0 16 of 31 51% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 3 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 22 50% 47 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:45
Maycee Barber 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
2 Roxanne Modafferi 1 5 of 10 50% 41 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:42
Maycee Barber 0 4 of 7 57% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 3 of 11 27% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:05
Maycee Barber 0 7 of 10 70% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 43 44% 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 31 1 of 1 7 of 11
Maycee Barber 16 of 31 51% 15 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 0 of 0 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 3
Maycee Barber 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7
Maycee Barber 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
3 Roxanne Modafferi 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maycee Barber 7 of 10 70% 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.

first round knockout
"I think Maisie Barbara is gonna go out there and knock out rocks and modifier in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.

Over 1.5 rounds bet planned.
"I'm picking Maisie Barbara to win there but I believe the bet is gonna be the over in that fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.

decision
"I'm gonna pick Roxanne mo de ferran I think she's gonna hold Maisie Barbara against a cage for free rounds she's the bigger girl she's a stronger girl she's the more experienced Gil"
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 29 of 110 26% 76 of 161 0 of 9 0% 0 0 3:32
Roxanne Modafferi 0 83 of 174 47% 111 of 205 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 6 of 23 26% 20 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:47
Roxanne Modafferi 0 13 of 35 37% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
2 Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 36 38% 37 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 57 56% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
3 Jennifer Maia 0 9 of 51 17% 19 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Roxanne Modafferi 0 38 of 82 46% 51 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 29 of 110 26% 25 of 100 1 of 5 3 of 5 28 of 109 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 83 of 174 47% 72 of 158 9 of 14 2 of 2 65 of 150 17 of 20 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 6 of 23 26% 5 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 13 of 35 37% 11 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 29 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 0 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 57 56% 29 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 47 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 9 of 51 17% 8 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 38 of 82 46% 32 of 71 4 of 9 2 of 2 35 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 4
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

Araújo by decision
"i think this is an absolute disaster of a matchup for roxanne mona ferry"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

Viviane Araújo inside the distance at +280
"i'll go with arujo i'll go by a decision but i do think plus 280 for her to win inside the distance is worth a little bit of a stab"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with vivian arawajo getting the job done she's a little bit smaller i think she wins by decision 30 27"