Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
Career Averages - Cortney Casey
Antonina Shevchenko
Cortney Casey
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 81 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 33 of 86 | 38% | 80 of 146 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 36 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 55 of 117 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 15 of 26 | 14 of 18 | 54 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 33 of 86 | 38% | 17 of 52 | 2 of 7 | 14 of 27 | 28 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 35 | 45% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 20 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 24 of 57 | 42% | 9 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 37 | 24% | 5 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 29 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 52 of 110 | 47% | 128 of 209 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 29 of 41 | 70% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 26 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 40 of 63 | 63% | 32 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 52 of 110 | 47% | 46 of 101 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 29 of 41 | 70% | 23 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 43 of 77 | 55% | 41 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 48 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.
Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.
I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.
Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 88 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 18 | 94% | 45 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 45 of 62 | 72% | 32 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 21 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 28 of 44 | 63% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 22 of 39 | 56% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.
Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.
Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.
The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.
Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 94 of 128 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 57 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 39 of 57 | 68% | 32 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 10 of 12 | 83% | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 10 of 14 | 71% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 29 of 45 | 64% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.
Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.
The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 73 of 108 | 67% | 200 of 240 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 70 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 83 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 63 | 55% | 47 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 73 of 108 | 67% | 55 of 81 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 55 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 25 of 64 | 39% | 14 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 24 | 83% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 21 | 85% | 16 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 19 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 63 | 55% | 22 of 43 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 54 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.
Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 23 | 69% | 3 of 6 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 6 of 16 | 37% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 21 | 76% | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 105 of 162 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 9:00 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 87 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 30 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 44 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 31 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 3:15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 33 of 79 | 41% | 29 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 64 of 116 | 55% | 50 of 101 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 98 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 34 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 21 of 36 | 58% | 12 of 26 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 33 of 128 | 25% | 85 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 87 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 50 | 18% | 16 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 39 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 33 of 128 | 25% | 18 of 113 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 116 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 66 of 134 | 49% | 41 of 101 | 18 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 106 | 14 of 19 | 6 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 50 | 18% | 3 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 15 of 35 | 42% | 10 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 12 of 46 | 26% | 8 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 41 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 27 of 46 | 58% | 15 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
Cortney Casey - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 81 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 33 of 86 | 38% | 80 of 146 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 36 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 55 of 117 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 15 of 26 | 14 of 18 | 54 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 33 of 86 | 38% | 17 of 52 | 2 of 7 | 14 of 27 | 28 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 35 | 45% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 20 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 24 of 57 | 42% | 9 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 37 | 24% | 5 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 29 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 89 of 218 | 40% | 124 of 257 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 34 of 154 | 22% | 57 of 184 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 29 of 67 | 43% | 53 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 9 of 47 | 19% | 13 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 23 of 61 | 37% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 8 of 45 | 17% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 37 of 90 | 41% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Liana Jojua | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 18 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 89 of 218 | 40% | 61 of 173 | 12 of 25 | 16 of 20 | 86 of 213 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Liana Jojua | 34 of 154 | 22% | 29 of 143 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 30 of 145 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 29 of 67 | 43% | 19 of 53 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 29 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Liana Jojua | 9 of 47 | 19% | 8 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 23 of 61 | 37% | 14 of 46 | 3 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Liana Jojua | 8 of 45 | 17% | 7 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 37 of 90 | 41% | 28 of 74 | 5 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Liana Jojua | 17 of 62 | 27% | 14 of 57 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Cortney Casey due to her higher level of competition and more technical striking. He acknowledges that Jojua has a path to victory through grappling but notes her poor takedown ability. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide and considers this a close fight, but picks experience.
Big Brady is confident in Cortney Casey, criticizing Liana Jojua's poor striking defense, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Jojua was dominated by Sarah Morris and Miranda Maverick, and while Casey has a mediocre record, she has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Casey to have a striking advantage and predicts a TKO in the second round as Jojua fades.
Cody is betting against Jojua, not for Casey. He notes Jojua's poor performances and long layoff. He thinks Casey's volume and experience should win, but he's not confident because Casey is 9-9 and hasn't won in two years. He advises caution and checking weigh-ins.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey, noting that Jojua's takedowns are not strong and most of her wins come by armbar off her back, which Casey has not been submitted by. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense but believes she is the tougher fighter and has beaten higher-level competition. Levi says he would never bet Casey at -240 but still picks her to win.
Jacob picks Liana Jojua as his lock of the week, believing she will use offensive wrestling to take Casey down and control her. He notes that Casey has been taken down in recent fights and thinks Jojua's grappling is superior. Jacob is very confident in this pick.
Paul thinks Casey is far more skilled than Jojua, who has poor stand-up and is hittable. He expects Casey to win by volume and experience. He notes Casey's grappling is adequate and Jojua's only path is a submission, which is unlikely.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey by submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round. He expects Casey to out-strike Jojua on the feet, then reverse a takedown attempt and secure the choke. Jojua's nose and eye will be bloodied from Casey's pressure and clinch work.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 55 of 131 | 41% | 121 of 202 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 45 of 80 | 56% | 58 of 99 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 5:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 51 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 18 of 31 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 43 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Aldrich | 55 of 131 | 41% | 35 of 107 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 12 | 45 of 114 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 45 of 80 | 56% | 41 of 74 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 36 of 64 | 4 of 7 | 5 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JJ Aldrich | 21 of 40 | 52% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 13 of 27 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 19 | 47% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | JJ Aldrich | 7 of 25 | 28% | 4 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 3 | JJ Aldrich | 27 of 66 | 40% | 23 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 62 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 25 of 43 | 58% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is not confident, calling it a close fight. He notes that Casey has terrible takedown defense (37%) and Aldrich could exploit that by mixing in takedowns, though Aldrich rarely attempts them. He sees the striking as near 50-50 with a slight edge to Aldrich. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28 split, and advises against betting on this fight.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey reluctantly, reasoning that if there are no takedowns, Casey's higher output could edge a split decision. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense and questionable decisions, but notes that JJ Aldridge rarely shoots for takedowns and has been stopped standing. He believes Casey's toughness and volume could be enough in a striking match.
Lock loves Aldrich's fighting style, noting she moves forward, throws combinations with heat, and has good technique. He mentions her close fight with Sabina Mazo that could have gone her way. He thinks she can cause Casey issues on the feet and is confident at -140. He questions Casey's recent form.
The Guru initially changes his mind mid-sentence but ultimately picks Cortney Casey as an underdog. He believes Casey's experience against tougher competition gives her an edge, and he criticizes JJ Aldridge's losses, particularly to Macy Barber and Sabina Mazo. He expects a scrappy fight where Casey secures a submission, specifically an armbar, in the second round. He notes that Casey has fought better opponents and her losses look better than Aldridge's.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 113 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 41 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 11:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 3 of 13 | 23% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 12 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 40 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 14 of 29 | 48% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 4 of 20 | 20% | 9 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 22 of 55 | 40% | 16 of 47 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 20 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 21 of 50 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 3 of 13 | 23% | 2 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 16 | 75% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 14 of 29 | 48% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 4 of 20 | 20% | 2 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson by decision, expecting her to take Cortney Casey down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. He notes Casey's poor takedown defense and believes Robertson will avoid striking exchanges. He acknowledges Casey's submission threat from bottom but thinks Robertson will be safe on top and may even get a ground-and-pound finish.
Daniel Levi leans toward Cortney Casey, acknowledging she will be taken down but believing she has a good guard and submission threats. He notes that Gillian Robertson checks out if she can't get an early sub, and Casey can win on the feet or via submission. Levi warns that betting Casey requires accepting early takedowns, but sees value at plus money.
Casey has momentum and is bigger with a reach advantage. Robertson has a good ground game but Casey is stronger. Casey will get a submission in the first round, though it's a close fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 21 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 21 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mara Romero Borella | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Mara Romero Borella by decision, noting that Borella has a takedown advantage and Casey has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges that on the feet Casey is likely better, but believes Borella can get takedowns and control time on the ground. He mentions that Borella is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but still favors her due to the grappling edge.
Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey. He notes that Casey is the far superior fighter and tougher, despite her questionable fight IQ. He believes Borella lacks chin and confidence, and if she can't get takedowns, she loses. He expects Casey to give up early takedowns but eventually land a big shot and win.
The host picks Mara Romero Borella, though he admits both fighters are not great. He cites Borella's physical advantages (shorter with longer reach) making it harder for Casey to get inside. He predicts a close, uneventful decision win for Borella.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 73 of 176 | 41% | 73 of 177 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 82 of 192 | 42% | 82 of 192 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 24 of 58 | 41% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 28 of 63 | 44% | 28 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 3 | Cynthia Calvillo | 0 | 27 of 66 | 40% | 27 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 22 of 67 | 32% | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cynthia Calvillo | 73 of 176 | 41% | 41 of 136 | 6 of 8 | 26 of 32 | 72 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 82 of 192 | 42% | 41 of 139 | 17 of 24 | 24 of 29 | 79 of 186 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cynthia Calvillo | 24 of 58 | 41% | 14 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 32 of 62 | 51% | 10 of 37 | 8 of 11 | 14 of 14 | 29 of 59 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cynthia Calvillo | 22 of 52 | 42% | 12 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 28 of 63 | 44% | 15 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cynthia Calvillo | 27 of 66 | 40% | 15 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 12 | 26 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 22 of 67 | 32% | 16 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 22 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 111 of 333 | 33% | 117 of 341 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 121 of 222 | 54% | 123 of 224 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 29 of 98 | 29% | 29 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 33 of 65 | 50% | 33 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 43 of 113 | 38% | 47 of 117 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 43 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 0 | 39 of 122 | 31% | 41 of 125 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Angela Hill | 0 | 47 of 82 | 57% | 47 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cortney Casey | 111 of 333 | 33% | 80 of 290 | 17 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 100 of 321 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 2 |
| Angela Hill | 121 of 222 | 54% | 65 of 156 | 34 of 41 | 22 of 25 | 110 of 211 | 10 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cortney Casey | 29 of 98 | 29% | 22 of 89 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 95 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Angela Hill | 33 of 65 | 50% | 16 of 46 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 61 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Cortney Casey | 43 of 113 | 38% | 30 of 95 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 35 of 104 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 41 of 75 | 54% | 21 of 52 | 13 of 15 | 7 of 8 | 38 of 72 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cortney Casey | 39 of 122 | 31% | 28 of 106 | 6 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 122 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Angela Hill | 47 of 82 | 57% | 28 of 58 | 14 of 18 | 5 of 6 | 43 of 78 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The strawweights come to the center of the cage, ready to go. Hill is moving quite a bit early, giving Casey plenty of angles. “Overkill” peppers the taller fighter with a quick combo upstairs, but there’s not behind it. During an exchange, Casey stumbles back and sits down; Hill lets her up. Hill goes with a slick left hook to the face, followed by a right low kick. Hill walks into a straight left, but she counters that with a left low kick. A hard right leg kick by “Overkill” follows but Casey storms back with a left and a right to the face. The two begin opening up much more and tag each other with punches to the head. Casey eats a few more punches and then opts for a takedown. Casey ties Hill up against the cage and drags her foe to the canvas. Hill wastes no time and latches on an armbar, but the Phoenix-based fighter stacks her nicely to fend it off. Casey perfectly executes the armbar escapes, but she is immediately attacked by Hill, who shoots in for a double. Back on their feet late in the round, the ladies trade solid punches. Hill tags Casey with a pair of rights to the face to seal the round in her favor. 10-9 Hill.
Round 2
The women pick up where they left off from the end of the first and trade hard punches to the head. Hill gets the better of the initial exchange, forcing Casey to shoot in for a takedown. Hill stuffs her long enough to separate and regroups to the center of the Octagon. Hill slams a left hook and right leg kick onto the taller fighter, but the Casey counters with a straight right to the jaw that snaps Hill’s head back. “Overkill” settles down and pops her foe’s head back with a series of jabs, but the Phoenix-based fighter answers with a slurry to the head and body. Casey ducks under a left hook and shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Overkill” does a splendid job defending it and eventually separates back to the center of the cage. Hill is bleeding from the nose, but she connects with a left hook to the jaw that briefly rocks Casey. “Cast Iron” backs off but Hill chases after her. Hill lands a straight left up top and narrowly avoids a knee to the face in return. Hill lands an overhand elbow to the head during an exchange just before the horn, capturing another round. 10-9 Hill.
Round 3
Casey, likely sensing she desperately needs this round, comes out aggressively. Hill sees it and tags her with a sweeping left hook to the jab. “Cast Iron” shakes it off and goes low with a kick before coming back upstairs with a right-left that is blocked. “Overkill” clips her foe with a right behind the ear, but it doesn’t seem to faze Casey that much. Hill has some swelling around her left eye as she digs a flurry to the body. Casey, in return, fires off a pair of rights to the head. At the midway point, Hill is moving around the cage nicely; Casey seems to be growing frustrated. A stiff left jab from “Overkill” backs off the charging Casey, who then has to swallow a right cross. Hill delivers a shot to the gut just as Casey tries closing the gap. With a minute left, Casey needs to go for broke her, but “Overkill” is playing it smart by staying just out of range. Hill tags her opponent with three left jabs, a right cross and then a left to the body. Casey tries to fire back, but Hill is nowhere to be found. They trade punches for the final few moments of the fight, but nothing is too severe. 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).
The Official Result
Cortney Casey-Sanchez def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 61 of 84 | 72% | 77 of 103 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:05 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 36 of 96 | 37% | 64 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 1:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 23 of 36 | 63% | 27 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 23 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 22 of 27 | 81% | 27 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 61 of 84 | 72% | 30 of 49 | 13 of 15 | 18 of 20 | 41 of 61 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 16 |
| Cortney Casey | 36 of 96 | 37% | 22 of 79 | 7 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 22 of 82 | 9 of 9 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 23 of 36 | 63% | 11 of 20 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 25 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 |
| Cortney Casey | 16 of 38 | 42% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 16 of 21 | 76% | 10 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 |
| Cortney Casey | 11 of 25 | 44% | 8 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 22 of 27 | 81% | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 18 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
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