UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 8"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 39
Height 5' 7"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
3.86 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
2.93 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.43 TD Avg
42.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Cortney Casey
4.29 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
4.0 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.39 TD Avg
31.0% TD Acc.
39.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Antonina Shevchenko
Moneyline
FanDuel -178
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
BetRivers +1000
Decision
BetWay +130
Cortney Casey
Moneyline
Caesars +155
KO/TKO
BetMGM +1000
Submission
BetRivers +700
Decision
FanDuel +350
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Cortney Casey
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
TKO (punches) R2 4:47 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 40 of 63 63% 58 of 85 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:12
Antonina Shevchenko 0 52 of 110 47% 128 of 209 3 of 8 37% 0 0 5:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 29 of 41 70% 38 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 33 27% 26 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:19
2 Casey O'Neill 0 11 of 22 50% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Antonina Shevchenko 0 43 of 77 55% 102 of 157 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 40 of 63 63% 32 of 55 8 of 8 0 of 0 24 of 45 8 of 8 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 52 of 110 47% 46 of 101 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 3 37 of 52
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 29 of 41 70% 23 of 35 6 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 25 6 of 6 8 of 10
Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 33 27% 5 of 27 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 4
2 Casey O'Neill 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Antonina Shevchenko 43 of 77 55% 41 of 74 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 28 0 of 1 35 of 48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.

considering moneyline bet at -210
"i think she's almost a guaranteed win here so i may do a money line bet on her at minus 210"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.

O'Neill by decision
"i'll go with casey o'neil here to win i'll go for her to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.

Inside the distance at +140
"casey o'neill is the pick clearly um i think her game her game plan her style is just the kryptonite to everything that shivchenko really wants to do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.

"i'm not lying when i say i'm going to be nervous for the entire duration this fight stays standing"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.

Shevchenko by KO +800
"I bet chef check on the money line i also bet her caleb ko on plus 800"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.

Inside the distance at +140
"i think shivchenko rolls here um it may take a couple rounds but i think she probably gets her out of there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.

O'Neill by submission (rear-naked choke) in round 2 or 3
"i'm going casey o'neil here i think i'm going to go with casey o'neill by re-naked choke in the second round"
LOSS vs Andrea Lee
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
TKO (punches) R2 4:33 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 39 of 57 68% 94 of 128 1 of 3 33% 0 0 7:39
Ariane da Silva 0 15 of 26 57% 25 of 36 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 10 of 12 83% 37 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:48
Ariane da Silva 0 10 of 14 71% 20 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 29 of 45 64% 57 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:51
Ariane da Silva 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 39 of 57 68% 32 of 50 4 of 4 3 of 3 8 of 12 5 of 6 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 15 of 26 57% 7 of 15 5 of 6 3 of 5 13 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 10 of 12 83% 4 of 6 4 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 6 5 of 6 0 of 0
Ariane da Silva 10 of 14 71% 4 of 7 4 of 4 2 of 3 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 29 of 45 64% 28 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 39
Ariane da Silva 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 1 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.

would not bet this fight
"i'm going to take chefchenko i think it could play out close as a lot of women's fights do"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Ariane da Silva

Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.

"i am actually gonna pick uh my girl queen of violent slipski to come in here and get this upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.

"I do like Chef Cho again I think she's cleaner on the feet uh she might have the Jiu-Jitsu Advantage as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.

"i'm definitely going to be going with antonina chefchenko to get the job done over ariana lipsky by unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Woodley vs. Burns · May 30, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 73 of 108 67% 200 of 240 3 of 3 100% 4 0 10:36
Antonina Shevchenko 0 25 of 64 39% 37 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 24 83% 70 of 77 1 of 1 100% 4 0 4:27
Antonina Shevchenko 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 18 of 21 85% 83 of 86 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:53
Antonina Shevchenko 0 5 of 6 83% 14 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 35 of 63 55% 47 of 77 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 54 31% 19 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 73 of 108 67% 55 of 81 12 of 18 6 of 9 22 of 49 4 of 4 47 of 55
Antonina Shevchenko 25 of 64 39% 14 of 50 6 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 59 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 24 83% 17 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 2 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 18 of 21 85% 16 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 18 of 19
Antonina Shevchenko 5 of 6 83% 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 35 of 63 55% 22 of 43 9 of 14 4 of 6 20 of 43 2 of 2 13 of 18
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 54 31% 11 of 46 3 of 5 3 of 3 15 of 52 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 27, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.

Not touching from a betting perspective
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko I think she's a better striker I think she's going to land the harder shots as well the more convincing shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 29, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.

"i'm gonna agree with you that's gonna be a split decision but i'm gonna edge antonina on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 23, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.

Cerminara by decision
"Caitlin shook a key in here she's longer she's rain jeah I think she's gonna get a job done against Antonina Shevchenko"
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:20 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Lawler · Aug 03, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 23 69% 36 of 44 0 of 0 --- 3 0 1:54
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 24 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 21 76% 34 of 39 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:37
Lucie Pudilová 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:40
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Lucie Pudilová 0 0 of 5 0% 1 of 6 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 23 69% 3 of 6 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 3 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 16 37% 3 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 8 5 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 21 76% 3 of 4 9 of 13 4 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 20 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 6 of 11 54% 3 of 7 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 1
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lucie Pudilová 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
WIN vs Ji Yeon Kim
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · Nov 30, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 33 of 128 25% 85 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Ji Yeon Kim 0 66 of 134 49% 87 of 167 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 9 of 50 18% 16 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Ji Yeon Kim 0 15 of 35 42% 19 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 46 26% 30 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Ji Yeon Kim 0 24 of 53 45% 29 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:02
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 12 of 32 37% 39 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Ji Yeon Kim 0 27 of 46 58% 39 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 33 of 128 25% 18 of 113 5 of 5 10 of 10 26 of 116 7 of 12 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 66 of 134 49% 41 of 101 18 of 26 7 of 7 46 of 106 14 of 19 6 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 9 of 50 18% 3 of 44 2 of 2 4 of 4 6 of 47 3 of 3 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 15 of 35 42% 10 of 30 4 of 4 1 of 1 13 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 46 26% 8 of 42 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 24 of 53 45% 16 of 41 6 of 10 2 of 2 19 of 45 5 of 8 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 12 of 32 37% 7 of 27 1 of 1 4 of 4 10 of 25 2 of 7 0 of 0
Ji Yeon Kim 27 of 46 58% 15 of 30 8 of 12 4 of 4 14 of 28 7 of 9 6 of 9
Cortney Casey - Fight History
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Antonina Shevchenko 0 55 of 117 47% 81 of 158 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:50
Cortney Casey 0 33 of 86 38% 80 of 146 2 of 5 40% 0 0 3:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Antonina Shevchenko 0 16 of 35 45% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 20 60% 35 of 47 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Antonina Shevchenko 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
3 Antonina Shevchenko 0 15 of 25 60% 27 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 29 41% 36 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Antonina Shevchenko 55 of 117 47% 26 of 73 15 of 26 14 of 18 54 of 115 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 33 of 86 38% 17 of 52 2 of 7 14 of 27 28 of 78 3 of 4 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Antonina Shevchenko 16 of 35 45% 6 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 6 16 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 20 60% 3 of 5 0 of 1 9 of 14 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Antonina Shevchenko 24 of 57 42% 9 of 34 6 of 11 9 of 12 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 37 24% 5 of 23 0 of 3 4 of 11 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Antonina Shevchenko 15 of 25 60% 11 of 18 4 of 7 0 of 0 14 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 29 41% 9 of 24 2 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 22 2 of 3 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."
WIN vs Liana Jojua
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 89 of 218 40% 124 of 257 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 34 of 154 22% 57 of 184 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 29 of 67 43% 53 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 9 of 47 19% 13 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:31
2 Cortney Casey 0 23 of 61 37% 30 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 8 of 45 17% 26 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Cortney Casey 0 37 of 90 41% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Liana Jojua 0 17 of 62 27% 18 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 89 of 218 40% 61 of 173 12 of 25 16 of 20 86 of 213 2 of 2 1 of 3
Liana Jojua 34 of 154 22% 29 of 143 4 of 9 1 of 2 30 of 145 1 of 2 3 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 29 of 67 43% 19 of 53 4 of 6 6 of 8 29 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Liana Jojua 9 of 47 19% 8 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 43 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Cortney Casey 23 of 61 37% 14 of 46 3 of 8 6 of 7 22 of 58 0 of 0 1 of 3
Liana Jojua 8 of 45 17% 7 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 42 0 of 0 1 of 3
3 Cortney Casey 37 of 90 41% 28 of 74 5 of 11 4 of 5 35 of 88 2 of 2 0 of 0
Liana Jojua 17 of 62 27% 14 of 57 3 of 5 0 of 0 16 of 60 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Angelo leans toward Cortney Casey due to her higher level of competition and more technical striking. He acknowledges that Jojua has a path to victory through grappling but notes her poor takedown ability. Angelo thinks the odds are a bit wide and considers this a close fight, but picks experience.

"i think this is much closer than these odds i'm going with the experience here i am going to pick casey"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Big Brady is confident in Cortney Casey, criticizing Liana Jojua's poor striking defense, wrestling, and cardio. He notes Jojua was dominated by Sarah Morris and Miranda Maverick, and while Casey has a mediocre record, she has faced tougher competition. Brady expects Casey to have a striking advantage and predicts a TKO in the second round as Jojua fades.

Casey by TKO in round 2
"give me according to casey to win i'm going to take her to win by like a tko in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Cody is betting against Jojua, not for Casey. He notes Jojua's poor performances and long layoff. He thinks Casey's volume and experience should win, but he's not confident because Casey is 9-9 and hasn't won in two years. He advises caution and checking weigh-ins.

"the pick will be courtney casey it's just i got to figure out what the trust level is like"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey, noting that Jojua's takedowns are not strong and most of her wins come by armbar off her back, which Casey has not been submitted by. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense but believes she is the tougher fighter and has beaten higher-level competition. Levi says he would never bet Casey at -240 but still picks her to win.

would not bet at -240
"i gotta go with courtney casey here"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Liana Jojua

Jacob picks Liana Jojua as his lock of the week, believing she will use offensive wrestling to take Casey down and control her. He notes that Casey has been taken down in recent fights and thinks Jojua's grappling is superior. Jacob is very confident in this pick.

"she's the lock of the week let's get that out of the way"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Paul thinks Casey is far more skilled than Jojua, who has poor stand-up and is hittable. He expects Casey to win by volume and experience. He notes Casey's grappling is adequate and Jojua's only path is a submission, which is unlikely.

"casey gets the win i never want to back courtney casey at minus 235 but i think she's got her out gunned everywhere here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey by submission (rear-naked choke) in the second round. He expects Casey to out-strike Jojua on the feet, then reverse a takedown attempt and secure the choke. Jojua's nose and eye will be bloodied from Casey's pressure and clinch work.

submission in round 2
"casey reverses position takes to back put the puts the hooks in gets the re-naked choke and lyanna jojo taps to a remake of choke at the end of the second round"
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad · Mar 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
JJ Aldrich 0 55 of 131 41% 121 of 202 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cortney Casey 0 45 of 80 56% 58 of 99 4 of 7 57% 0 0 5:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 40 52% 51 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 19 47% 18 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:54
2 JJ Aldrich 0 7 of 25 28% 43 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 11 of 18 61% 15 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:06
3 JJ Aldrich 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 25 of 43 58% 25 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
JJ Aldrich 55 of 131 41% 35 of 107 9 of 12 11 of 12 45 of 114 10 of 17 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 45 of 80 56% 41 of 74 4 of 6 0 of 0 36 of 64 4 of 7 5 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 JJ Aldrich 21 of 40 52% 8 of 26 5 of 5 8 of 9 13 of 27 8 of 13 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 9 of 19 47% 6 of 14 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 13 3 of 5 0 of 1
2 JJ Aldrich 7 of 25 28% 4 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 7 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 8
3 JJ Aldrich 27 of 66 40% 23 of 61 2 of 3 2 of 2 25 of 62 2 of 4 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 25 of 43 58% 24 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 24 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is not confident, calling it a close fight. He notes that Casey has terrible takedown defense (37%) and Aldrich could exploit that by mixing in takedowns, though Aldrich rarely attempts them. He sees the striking as near 50-50 with a slight edge to Aldrich. He predicts a close decision, possibly 29-28 split, and advises against betting on this fight.

"I'm gonna take Aldrich here, I think she's the better fighter just by a little bit."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey reluctantly, reasoning that if there are no takedowns, Casey's higher output could edge a split decision. He acknowledges Casey's poor takedown defense and questionable decisions, but notes that JJ Aldridge rarely shoots for takedowns and has been stopped standing. He believes Casey's toughness and volume could be enough in a striking match.

"I'm just gonna pick courtney casey because i think she's got slightly more output and if there's no takedowns involved i think she can edge a split"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2021 (11 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Lock loves Aldrich's fighting style, noting she moves forward, throws combinations with heat, and has good technique. He mentions her close fight with Sabina Mazo that could have gone her way. He thinks she can cause Casey issues on the feet and is confident at -140. He questions Casey's recent form.

"i love her i love uh jj aldrich in the way that she fights... i think she could definitely cause courtney casey some issues on the feet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru initially changes his mind mid-sentence but ultimately picks Cortney Casey as an underdog. He believes Casey's experience against tougher competition gives her an edge, and he criticizes JJ Aldridge's losses, particularly to Macy Barber and Sabina Mazo. He expects a scrappy fight where Casey secures a submission, specifically an armbar, in the second round. He notes that Casey has fought better opponents and her losses look better than Aldridge's.

submission in round 2
"i'm going with courtney casey by submission in the second round that's final"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:36 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 22 of 55 40% 113 of 153 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 21 of 50 42% 41 of 72 3 of 4 75% 1 0 11:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 3 of 13 23% 23 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 5 of 14 35% 12 of 21 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:17
2 Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 13 38% 40 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 12 of 16 75% 20 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:22
3 Gillian Robertson 0 14 of 29 48% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 4 of 20 20% 9 of 25 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 22 of 55 40% 16 of 47 2 of 3 4 of 5 20 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 21 of 50 42% 15 of 41 2 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 33 1 of 1 12 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 3 of 13 23% 2 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 5 of 14 35% 5 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Gillian Robertson 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 12 of 16 75% 8 of 12 1 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 9
3 Gillian Robertson 14 of 29 48% 10 of 24 1 of 1 3 of 4 12 of 27 2 of 2 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 4 of 20 20% 2 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson by decision, expecting her to take Cortney Casey down repeatedly and control the fight on the ground. He notes Casey's poor takedown defense and believes Robertson will avoid striking exchanges. He acknowledges Casey's submission threat from bottom but thinks Robertson will be safe on top and may even get a ground-and-pound finish.

odds: Robertson minus 120, Casey plus 100; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go robertson by decision I think she's going to get you know a couple takedowns each round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi leans toward Cortney Casey, acknowledging she will be taken down but believing she has a good guard and submission threats. He notes that Gillian Robertson checks out if she can't get an early sub, and Casey can win on the feet or via submission. Levi warns that betting Casey requires accepting early takedowns, but sees value at plus money.

"I'm going to lean Casey as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

Casey has momentum and is bigger with a reach advantage. Robertson has a good ground game but Casey is stronger. Casey will get a submission in the first round, though it's a close fight.

submission in the first round
"I think Courtney Casey gets it done here by submission in the first round"
Submission (armbar) R1 3:36 · UFC on ESPN: Overeem vs. Harris · May 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 6 of 12 50% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Mara Romero Borella 0 5 of 7 71% 21 of 24 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 6 of 12 50% 4 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 7 1 of 2 3 of 3
Mara Romero Borella 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 4 2 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 15, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

Big Brady picks Mara Romero Borella by decision, noting that Borella has a takedown advantage and Casey has poor takedown defense. He acknowledges that on the feet Casey is likely better, but believes Borella can get takedowns and control time on the ground. He mentions that Borella is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but still favors her due to the grappling edge.

underdog +140, takedowns, control time
"I'm gonna go Sperling here she is the underdog looks like she is plus 140... I just think Burleigh can come out here get takedowns Casey has awful take ton defense"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 16, 2020 (fight day)
Cortney Casey

Daniel Levi picks Cortney Casey. He notes that Casey is the far superior fighter and tougher, despite her questionable fight IQ. He believes Borella lacks chin and confidence, and if she can't get takedowns, she loses. He expects Casey to give up early takedowns but eventually land a big shot and win.

"I think Courtney Casey is the superior fighter and the tougher fighter saw picker for that reason"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked May 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Mara Romero Borella

The host picks Mara Romero Borella, though he admits both fighters are not great. He cites Borella's physical advantages (shorter with longer reach) making it harder for Casey to get inside. He predicts a close, uneventful decision win for Borella.

Mara Romero Borella by decision
"I think Mara Romero Burrell is gonna get the job done I don't know how she's gonna get the job done I think she will just win by closed decision and it's gonna be pretty uneventful"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Feb 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cynthia Calvillo 0 73 of 176 41% 73 of 177 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 82 of 192 42% 82 of 192 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cynthia Calvillo 0 24 of 58 41% 24 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 Cynthia Calvillo 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 28 of 63 44% 28 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Cynthia Calvillo 0 27 of 66 40% 27 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cortney Casey 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cynthia Calvillo 73 of 176 41% 41 of 136 6 of 8 26 of 32 72 of 175 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 82 of 192 42% 41 of 139 17 of 24 24 of 29 79 of 186 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cynthia Calvillo 24 of 58 41% 14 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 9 24 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 32 of 62 51% 10 of 37 8 of 11 14 of 14 29 of 59 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Cynthia Calvillo 22 of 52 42% 12 of 38 2 of 3 8 of 11 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 28 of 63 44% 15 of 45 7 of 10 6 of 8 28 of 61 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Cynthia Calvillo 27 of 66 40% 15 of 51 2 of 3 10 of 12 26 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Cortney Casey 22 of 67 32% 16 of 57 2 of 3 4 of 7 22 of 66 0 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Angela Hill
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Aug 25, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Cortney Casey 0 111 of 333 33% 117 of 341 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:42
Angela Hill 0 121 of 222 54% 123 of 224 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Cortney Casey 0 29 of 98 29% 29 of 99 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Angela Hill 0 33 of 65 50% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
2 Cortney Casey 0 43 of 113 38% 47 of 117 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:38
Angela Hill 0 41 of 75 54% 43 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Cortney Casey 0 39 of 122 31% 41 of 125 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Angela Hill 0 47 of 82 57% 47 of 82 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Cortney Casey 111 of 333 33% 80 of 290 17 of 28 14 of 15 100 of 321 9 of 10 2 of 2
Angela Hill 121 of 222 54% 65 of 156 34 of 41 22 of 25 110 of 211 10 of 10 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Cortney Casey 29 of 98 29% 22 of 89 2 of 4 5 of 5 26 of 95 1 of 1 2 of 2
Angela Hill 33 of 65 50% 16 of 46 7 of 8 10 of 11 29 of 61 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Cortney Casey 43 of 113 38% 30 of 95 9 of 13 4 of 5 35 of 104 8 of 9 0 of 0
Angela Hill 41 of 75 54% 21 of 52 13 of 15 7 of 8 38 of 72 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Cortney Casey 39 of 122 31% 28 of 106 6 of 11 5 of 5 39 of 122 0 of 0 0 of 0
Angela Hill 47 of 82 57% 28 of 58 14 of 18 5 of 6 43 of 78 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Cortney Casey-Sanchez vs. Angela Hill

Round 1
The strawweights come to the center of the cage, ready to go. Hill is moving quite a bit early, giving Casey plenty of angles. “Overkill” peppers the taller fighter with a quick combo upstairs, but there’s not behind it. During an exchange, Casey stumbles back and sits down; Hill lets her up. Hill goes with a slick left hook to the face, followed by a right low kick. Hill walks into a straight left, but she counters that with a left low kick. A hard right leg kick by “Overkill” follows but Casey storms back with a left and a right to the face. The two begin opening up much more and tag each other with punches to the head. Casey eats a few more punches and then opts for a takedown. Casey ties Hill up against the cage and drags her foe to the canvas. Hill wastes no time and latches on an armbar, but the Phoenix-based fighter stacks her nicely to fend it off. Casey perfectly executes the armbar escapes, but she is immediately attacked by Hill, who shoots in for a double. Back on their feet late in the round, the ladies trade solid punches. Hill tags Casey with a pair of rights to the face to seal the round in her favor. 10-9 Hill.

Round 2
The women pick up where they left off from the end of the first and trade hard punches to the head. Hill gets the better of the initial exchange, forcing Casey to shoot in for a takedown. Hill stuffs her long enough to separate and regroups to the center of the Octagon. Hill slams a left hook and right leg kick onto the taller fighter, but the Casey counters with a straight right to the jaw that snaps Hill’s head back. “Overkill” settles down and pops her foe’s head back with a series of jabs, but the Phoenix-based fighter answers with a slurry to the head and body. Casey ducks under a left hook and shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Overkill” does a splendid job defending it and eventually separates back to the center of the cage. Hill is bleeding from the nose, but she connects with a left hook to the jaw that briefly rocks Casey. “Cast Iron” backs off but Hill chases after her. Hill lands a straight left up top and narrowly avoids a knee to the face in return. Hill lands an overhand elbow to the head during an exchange just before the horn, capturing another round. 10-9 Hill.

Round 3
Casey, likely sensing she desperately needs this round, comes out aggressively. Hill sees it and tags her with a sweeping left hook to the jab. “Cast Iron” shakes it off and goes low with a kick before coming back upstairs with a right-left that is blocked. “Overkill” clips her foe with a right behind the ear, but it doesn’t seem to faze Casey that much. Hill has some swelling around her left eye as she digs a flurry to the body. Casey, in return, fires off a pair of rights to the head. At the midway point, Hill is moving around the cage nicely; Casey seems to be growing frustrated. A stiff left jab from “Overkill” backs off the charging Casey, who then has to swallow a right cross. Hill delivers a shot to the gut just as Casey tries closing the gap. With a minute left, Casey needs to go for broke her, but “Overkill” is playing it smart by staying just out of range. Hill tags her opponent with three left jabs, a right cross and then a left to the body. Casey tries to fire back, but Hill is nowhere to be found. They trade punches for the final few moments of the fight, but nothing is too severe. 10-9 Hill (30-27 Hill).

The Official Result
Cortney Casey-Sanchez def. Angela Hill via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Apr 14, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 61 of 84 72% 77 of 103 3 of 4 75% 0 0 6:05
Cortney Casey 0 36 of 96 37% 64 of 126 0 of 1 0% 3 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 23 of 36 63% 27 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Cortney Casey 0 16 of 38 42% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 16 of 21 76% 23 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:46
Cortney Casey 0 11 of 25 44% 22 of 36 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:23
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 22 of 27 81% 27 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:42
Cortney Casey 0 9 of 33 27% 19 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 61 of 84 72% 30 of 49 13 of 15 18 of 20 41 of 61 6 of 7 14 of 16
Cortney Casey 36 of 96 37% 22 of 79 7 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 82 9 of 9 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 23 of 36 63% 11 of 20 4 of 6 8 of 10 14 of 25 3 of 4 6 of 7
Cortney Casey 16 of 38 42% 9 of 29 3 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 33 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 16 of 21 76% 10 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 5 9 of 13 2 of 2 5 of 6
Cortney Casey 11 of 25 44% 8 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 7 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 2
3 Michelle Waterson-Gomez 22 of 27 81% 9 of 14 8 of 8 5 of 5 18 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3
Cortney Casey 9 of 33 27% 5 of 29 2 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 28 2 of 2 3 of 3
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.

Considering a plus 3.5 round bet on Cortney Casey (buying points).
"I need to go with the better striker and that is going to be antonina... I might do a plus three and a half on courtney."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.

"if i had to make a pick it's going to be antonina by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

Mentions Shevchenko by decision as a prop.
"i think you're going to want to improve that price tag by taking the shepchenko by decision that makes sense"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.

2 units on fight goes to decision at -180. Parlay includes over 2.5 rounds.
"two units on the fight goes to decision for servchenko and Casey that's at minus 180. again a little bit chalky there again but I do think that this is one of those spots where they're just gonna outpoint one another and I think it's going to be chefchenko doing …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.

"yeah i gotta go with that as well again women's mma so you don't want to be paying anything north of you know minus 200 but minus 165 not a terrible price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cortney Casey

The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.

underdog; decision win
"I've got to side with Courtney Casey as an underdog."