vs
+198 -200
UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev Next Fight
Age 36
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 250 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Chase Sherman
6.04 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
6.65 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.09 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
74.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jared Vanderaa
4.96 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.67 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.18 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Chase Sherman
Moneyline
FanDuel +198
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
FanDuel +2600
Decision
BetRivers +550
Jared Vanderaa
Moneyline
BetMGM -200
KO/TKO
BetWay +175
Submission
DraftKings +750
Decision
FanDuel +290
Chase Sherman - Fight History
LOSS vs Karl Williams
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karl Williams 0 70 of 165 42% 85 of 191 1 of 10 10% 0 0 2:35
Chase Sherman 0 54 of 158 34% 64 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karl Williams 0 19 of 43 44% 34 of 69 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:41
Chase Sherman 0 11 of 39 28% 17 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Karl Williams 0 23 of 63 36% 23 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:23
Chase Sherman 0 13 of 56 23% 15 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Karl Williams 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:31
Chase Sherman 0 30 of 63 47% 32 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karl Williams 70 of 165 42% 53 of 147 6 of 6 11 of 12 65 of 159 2 of 3 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 54 of 158 34% 26 of 124 10 of 15 18 of 19 46 of 148 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karl Williams 19 of 43 44% 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3 14 of 38 2 of 2 3 of 3
Chase Sherman 11 of 39 28% 6 of 32 0 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 36 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Karl Williams 23 of 63 36% 17 of 56 2 of 2 4 of 5 23 of 62 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 13 of 56 23% 5 of 47 1 of 2 7 of 7 13 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Karl Williams 28 of 59 47% 22 of 53 2 of 2 4 of 4 28 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 30 of 63 47% 15 of 45 9 of 11 6 of 7 23 of 56 7 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.

Safe parlay piece
"you need to smash this line you need to smash it it's already not great at minus 400 but Carl Williams should dominate this Bell to Bell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.

inside the distance (submission or TKO)
"I think if Carl Williams does not finished Chase Sherman he will never finish anybody and the rest of his career because this is like a tailor-made matchup for Carl Williams"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.

over 3 takedowns for Williams on PrizePicks
"I gotta go with Williams I mean here's the thing about Chase too though is that like he's not exactly like a power puncher"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.

"I just expect that line to get wider. Frankly. It honestly should."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.

"I think ultimately Carl Williams can be able to implement that takedown game break Sherman late come out here and get a second UFC win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.

"I'm gonna go chase Sherman by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.

Shoei bet (3-1) on Williams if accepted
"I'm gonna say heavyweight volatility for the purpose of this show I'm picking Chase Sherman but I'm a little bit more hesitant a little bit less gung-ho than last time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karl Williams

The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.

"I'm gonna go if Carl Williams here over Chase Sherman... I think that Carl Williams is going to be able to take down Chase Sherman and even do okay on the feet"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karl Williams

Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.

"Williams though, doesn't even have to have that fight with him. No, no, he doesn't. He's just going to take him down."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 66 of 177 37% 73 of 187 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
Chase Sherman 0 147 of 278 52% 149 of 282 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 18 of 50 36% 23 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 71 40% 29 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:28
Chase Sherman 0 71 of 121 58% 73 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 27 of 79 34% 28 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Chase Sherman 0 47 of 86 54% 47 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 66 of 177 37% 25 of 130 16 of 19 25 of 28 66 of 174 0 of 3 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 147 of 278 52% 124 of 247 17 of 25 6 of 6 142 of 271 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 18 of 50 36% 6 of 36 4 of 5 8 of 9 18 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 29 of 71 40% 19 of 60 6 of 7 4 of 4 27 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 21 of 48 43% 8 of 34 6 of 7 7 of 7 21 of 47 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 71 of 121 58% 66 of 113 5 of 8 0 of 0 68 of 116 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 27 of 79 34% 11 of 60 6 of 7 10 of 12 27 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 47 of 86 54% 39 of 74 6 of 10 2 of 2 47 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Chase Sherman
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)

Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman

Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta

Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
LOSS vs Jake Collier
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:26 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jake Collier 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 50 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Chase Sherman 0 10 of 17 58% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jake Collier 20 of 49 40% 18 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 1 12 of 36 0 of 0 8 of 13
Chase Sherman 10 of 17 58% 8 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.

No stoppage expected; fight goes to decision.
"i like chase to keep a pace and take a decision here but this is another fight that's super close"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.

Sherman by knockout
"i'll take sherman by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.

"i'll lean towards collier"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.

"I am also gonna go with jay collier i think that he's got the higher work rate despite what the numbers say"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.

Decision bet recommended as sharper than moneyline.
"i'm going to be going jay collier and i'll be taking him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jake Collier

Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.

Collier by decision at +150; live bet Collier after round 1
"this one screams the exact same thing so i got jake caller and beyond that i think there's an opportunity to bet him after the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jake Collier

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.

"i'm leaning jake collier as dumb as it sounds i know the majority of people are picking chase sherman"
LOSS vs Parker Porter
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Aug 21, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Parker Porter 0 149 of 278 53% 159 of 294 1 of 8 12% 0 0 2:19
Chase Sherman 0 117 of 249 46% 121 of 253 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Parker Porter 0 21 of 56 37% 30 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:57
Chase Sherman 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Parker Porter 0 57 of 105 54% 58 of 107 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:05
Chase Sherman 0 51 of 102 50% 52 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Parker Porter 0 71 of 117 60% 71 of 118 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:17
Chase Sherman 0 37 of 88 42% 39 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Parker Porter 149 of 278 53% 116 of 243 17 of 17 16 of 18 141 of 270 7 of 7 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 117 of 249 46% 69 of 199 15 of 17 33 of 33 115 of 247 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Parker Porter 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 8 19 of 54 1 of 1 1 of 1
Chase Sherman 29 of 59 49% 20 of 50 1 of 1 8 of 8 29 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Parker Porter 57 of 105 54% 48 of 96 6 of 6 3 of 3 55 of 103 2 of 2 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 51 of 102 50% 27 of 77 11 of 12 13 of 13 50 of 101 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Parker Porter 71 of 117 60% 54 of 100 10 of 10 7 of 7 67 of 113 4 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 37 of 88 42% 22 of 72 3 of 4 12 of 12 36 of 87 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"i like chase sherman here quite a bit i don't really think parker porter is ufc caliber"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.

"i think chase has a massive athleticism advantage in this spot i think he's going to really uh go on to those uh the the light kicks are going to be key to him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.

over 1.5 rounds (-165); Porter by decision (+425)
"i like porter here quarterback decision laugh at me all you want but i think he has the chops to go out there and uh definitely not look like a plus 165"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 18, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Parker Porter

Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.

Fight goes over 1.5 rounds (-165); fight goes the distance (+155)
"i honestly see the fight going over one and a half minus 165 and i think fight goes the distance at plus 155 sounds crazy not crazy at all"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.

TKO by elbows against the cage
"i'm gonna go chase sherman good cardio he's a massive guy for the heavyweight division much bigger than parker porter"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 105 of 222 47% 109 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 88 of 192 45% 99 of 203 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 33 of 69 47% 33 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 32 of 69 46% 36 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Chase Sherman 0 21 of 58 36% 32 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 46 of 88 52% 46 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Sherman 0 34 of 65 52% 34 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 105 of 222 47% 54 of 154 26 of 39 25 of 29 103 of 217 2 of 5 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 88 of 192 45% 55 of 154 16 of 20 17 of 18 84 of 187 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 27 of 65 41% 15 of 51 4 of 6 8 of 8 25 of 61 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 33 of 69 47% 22 of 55 6 of 8 5 of 6 31 of 66 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 32 of 69 46% 16 of 47 10 of 12 6 of 10 32 of 68 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 21 of 58 36% 12 of 49 4 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 46 of 88 52% 23 of 56 12 of 21 11 of 11 46 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Sherman 34 of 65 52% 21 of 50 6 of 8 7 of 7 33 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.

"i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.

"chase german is a plus 105 underdog and to be quite honest i'm kind of feeling the same thing it's a dodger path type fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.

"i'm going to lean arlowski i think he's the better fighter here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.

Sherman by KO +255; under 2.5 rounds +135
"i think chase sherman could go out there and beat up that front leg of uh andre arlovski and really start to go to work with his hands"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.

"friends don't let friends bet on chase sherman cody all right let's move on"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to go with olofsky here against chase sherman"
TKO (elbow and punches) R2 0:49 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · May 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 1 51 of 87 58% 51 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 16 of 54 29% 16 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 39 of 69 56% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 14 of 48 29% 14 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 1 12 of 18 66% 12 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Ike Villanueva 0 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 51 of 87 58% 27 of 57 13 of 15 11 of 15 46 of 80 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 16 of 54 29% 13 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 53 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 39 of 69 56% 17 of 42 13 of 15 9 of 12 39 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ike Villanueva 14 of 48 29% 11 of 44 3 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 12 of 18 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 2 of 3 7 of 11 4 of 6 1 of 1
Ike Villanueva 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 11, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.

Sherman wins by knockout in round 2
"I'm gonna go with Sherman second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 12, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Chase Sherman

Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.

"I'll lean with Sherman for that reason but it's not gonna surprise me one bit if the newcomer comes out here and knocks him out either"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.

second round TKO
"I'm gonna go chase Sherman... by second round or first round TKO once Villanueva gets rid of his initial burst of juice."
Jared Vanderaa - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 73 of 158 46% 73 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 56 of 138 40% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 36 36% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 21 of 51 41% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 73 of 158 46% 41 of 117 26 of 32 6 of 9 73 of 157 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 56 of 138 40% 12 of 92 5 of 5 39 of 41 52 of 128 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 39 56% 12 of 26 9 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 36 36% 1 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 12 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 53 47% 9 of 33 12 of 15 4 of 5 25 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 21 of 51 41% 4 of 33 4 of 4 13 of 14 17 of 41 4 of 10 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 26 of 66 39% 20 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 3 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 22 of 51 43% 7 of 35 1 of 1 14 of 15 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

Round 1
The heaviest match on the card also serves as its “featured fight,” as recent Contender Series pickup Cortes-Acosta (7-0, 0-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against the struggling Californian known as “The Mountain” Vanderaa (12-9, 1-5 UFC). The smash-em-up derby that could end with the swing of one mighty fist will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, who is fully prepared should he need to stop the fight in a flash. The two men totaling 519.5 mighty pounds do not touch gloves to greet one another, and instead get warned by Smith for outstretched fingers. Cortes-Acosta wades forward with a slapping low kick, and he chases Vanderaa around the cage while looking for range strikes. There is a great deal of feinting and faking, until Cortes-Acosta loads up and rips a right hand to the body. Throwing a punch that is more of a fastball than a traditional strike, Cortes-Acosta again targets the ribcage. The single strikes continue from Cortes-Acosta as practically the only offense thus far two minutes in. Cortes-Acosta lands two punches over the top, and he lines up a few more punches to knock Vanderaa back. Vanderaa attempts to respond, and Cortes-Acosta is faster and more accurate as he smacks Vanderaa with his fists. Cortes-Acosta prepares his right hand, chambering it to release in search of a knockout, and Vanderaa settles down with a few jabs. The Cortes-Acosta right hand finds its target and reddens up the forehead, and he mixes in a front kick to the body. Vanderaa slowly, methodically kicks the calf a few times, and Cortes-Acosta start showing a limp and changes stances briefly. The movement from Cortes-Acosta is slightly hampered, but he still gives chase to “The Mountain.” Vanderaa swipes out with a huge low kick, and it lands hard enough to force an immediate stance change. When Cortes-Acosta swaps, Vanderaa kicks the other leg, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The second frame opens with a busy Cortes-Acosta rushing forward, and Vanderaa backs off and kicks the calf on the inside and out. The kicks keep on coming from “The Mountain,” as Cortes-Acosta changes stances and walks into a kick on the other side. Vanderaa secures a hard low kick, and this prompts Cortes-Acosta into immediate action. Possibly in big trouble from the kicks, Cortes-Acosta blitzes and swings hammers. Vanderaa rolls with some of them and eats others flush, and he survives and escapes. Two calf kicks from Vanderaa draw a limp, and Cortes-Acosta lets out a roar and plods forward to swing wildly. The kicks are hurting Cortes-Acosta, and he is showing it while the power of his overhand right is not nearly as severe as before. Vanderaa slaps another low kick after sticking out a jab, and Cortes-Acosta checks a subsequent kick and yells out triumphantly. Vanderaa rips the body with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta races in with a few haymakers. Vanderaa ties him up and unloads with a short salvo, and Cortes-Acosta dips and dodges before escaping. Cortes-Acosta sits down on a low kick to get one back, and the crowd roars its approval. Vanderaa swipes out with a left hook, and he gets off a leg kick as he backs out. Cortes-Acosta parries a few jabs and lands one to the midsection, and is subsequently warned for pointing his fingers out at his opponent. They both trade single punches, and Vanderaa kicks with both legs to the calf and body. After a brief clinch, they throw punches at the last second, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa

Round 3
The heavyweights take the stage for the final round, and they begin tentatively as Cortes-Acosta reaches out and gets popped with a quick uppercut. The jabs come from the two fighters at about the 30-second mark, and Cortes-Acosta throws a kick up high. Vanderaa times this with a leg kick so he does damage on the plant leg, and he kicks on the other side of that same leg to follow. Cortes-Acosta connects with a clean right hand, and a left, but neither frazzle Vanderaa or slow him from low kicks. Vanderaa keeps active with low kicks, and one spins Cortes-Acosta all the way around. Cortes-Acosta headhunts while Vanderaa kicks, and this pattern does not change one iota. Vanderaa walks into an overhand right, and he grits his teeth and rides out the rest of a combination, as his nose begins to bleed. Vanderaa rushes forward but pulls back before throwing anything, and when he finally engages, Cortes-Acosta is there to greet him with an overhand right. Vanderaa attempts to respond, but Cortes-Acosta rolls through it and flashes out a few jabs. Cortes-Acosta starts showboating, dancing around and doing moves while showing off. Vanderaa answers this with a heavy leg kick, and Cortes-Acosta does not pay it any mind and throws a haymaker. Vanderaa starts dancing, and a kick from him forces Cortes-Acosta to cough out his mouthpiece. Cortes-Acosta replaces it and gets his lead leg chopped down, and the final 30 seconds lead to a sloppy but energetic slugfest. When the horn sounds, they both hug it out after a strange fight that made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Jared Vanderaa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Vanderaa's poor fight IQ and lack of takedown attempts, noting that Vanderaa has a clear path to victory via wrestling but fails to execute. He highlights Acosta's power and volume, and believes Vanderaa's terrible striking defense will lead to a knockout.

Acosta wins by second-round knockout
"I like Costa to win I'll say by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo but is not betting him due to the -200 price and Waldo's greenness. He highlights Waldo's boxing background, solid takedown defense, and development at 31 years old. He criticizes Jared Vanderaa's low fight IQ, citing his poor decision to wrestle Alexey Oleynik and his lack of takedown attempts against Chase Sherman. Cody prefers the over 1.5 rounds prop as a betting angle.

Over 1.5 rounds at +105 (added at -130)
"I'm going to pick uh Waldo in this spot but no I'm not betting this guy he seems super super green that minus 200 it's it's kind of risky Biz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Levi picks Acosta, but is not impressed enough to lay the -195 price. He views Vanderaa as a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC (1-5 record) and likes to fade him. He acknowledges Acosta's boxing background and power but notes he is still green. He passes on betting but picks Acosta to win.

"Pure pick is Acosta I just didn't like the price tag on it so it's a pass from a betting perspective."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Jacob picks Waldo but is not confident due to heavyweight volatility. He thinks Waldo will chase a first-round finish, but if Vanderaa survives, he could grind out a decision. Jacob suggests a Waldo first-round play but advises staying away.

Waldo first round play
"my pick is Waldo I feel semi-confident about it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Acosta is a complete fighter who can keep up with Vanderaa's pace and push him against the cage. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak and struggles when pressured. However, paying -195 on a Contender Series heavyweight is risky. The over 1.5 rounds prop is a better bet as both fighters tend to clinch and grapple, eating clock.

Over 1.5 rounds (-120 to -135)
"the over one and a half will likely be getting my action this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul also picks Waldo, noting his boxing base, LFA title win, and training in Arizona. He acknowledges Vanderaa could win if he implements a high-volume, forward-pressure game plan as he did against Justin Tafa, but doubts Vanderaa's consistency and fight IQ. Paul mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential play but is not fully committed.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as a potential play)
"yeah I gotta go Waldo as well greasy heavyweight fight so do you want a ton of exposure on it no but uh yeah I don't actually don't mind this guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Jared Vanderaa, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Acosta is too dangerous early for Vanderaa, who makes poor decisions and is coming off a KO loss on short turnaround. He notes Acosta's power and regional win over Thomas Peterson, and predicts Acosta will catch Vanderaa swinging wildly and win by first-round KO.

"no-brainer here sure there's a chance at an upset but I am gonna have to go with Waldo Cortez Acosta"
LOSS vs Chase Sherman
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 64 of 133 48% 71 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 70 of 156 44% 102 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 30 of 55 54% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 14 of 34 41% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 28 of 56 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 64 of 133 48% 40 of 100 19 of 26 5 of 7 60 of 128 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 70 of 156 44% 30 of 110 24 of 29 16 of 17 55 of 134 15 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 30 of 55 54% 18 of 42 8 of 9 4 of 4 29 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 23 of 58 39% 13 of 46 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 20 of 44 45% 15 of 33 5 of 10 0 of 1 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 19 of 42 45% 6 of 27 11 of 13 2 of 2 15 of 35 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 14 of 34 41% 7 of 25 6 of 7 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 28 of 56 50% 11 of 37 7 of 8 10 of 11 21 of 46 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

"i think andre olofsky out points jared van dara i think he just jab jab jabs his way to a three-round decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Arlovski by decision
"give me andre alaska to win and give me arlofsky to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

"i'll go vandara and i know it's not it's definitely not a sexy pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

"i'm gonna go with arlovsky though man i think he's way faster"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Vanderaa by KO in round 2; moneyline is the main play
"he's easily my dog of the night for this card i got two units on him at plus 140 already i think he's a great spot and i think he's going to pull off the upside here against the aging …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

"i think andre is the more technical fighter all the way around"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, citing his veteran striking and experience. He views Vanderaa as a bottom-feeder who takes too much damage and expects Arlovski to pick him apart.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go valofsky here again"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 4:32 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 51 of 72 70% 107 of 135 3 of 3 100% 0 0 8:29
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 24 54% 27 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 20 75% 38 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 10 of 15 66% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 36 of 52 69% 69 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 3 of 9 33% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 51 of 72 70% 51 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 44 of 55
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 11
Jared Vanderaa 10 of 15 66% 5 of 10 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 36 of 52 69% 36 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 44
Jared Vanderaa 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi praises Serghei Spivac's tough competition in the UFC, having faced Walt Harris, Tai Tuivasa, Marcin Tybura, and Carlos Felipe. He believes Vanderaa is the first 'softball' of Spivac's UFC run and expects Spivac to handle him decisively. Levi notes Spivac's versatility, whether by head kick, schoolyard headlock, or grinding out a decision. He is confident in Spivac's skills and training at Extreme Couture.

"i got uh the moldovan sergey spivak to win this fight shaq"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)
No clear pick

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but i'll pick jay sherman for the purposes of this show"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."