Career Averages - Chase Sherman
Career Averages - Jared Vanderaa
Chase Sherman
Jared Vanderaa
Chase Sherman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 70 of 165 | 42% | 85 of 191 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 54 of 158 | 34% | 64 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 34 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 70 of 165 | 42% | 53 of 147 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 54 of 158 | 34% | 26 of 124 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 46 of 148 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 23 of 63 | 36% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 13 of 56 | 23% | 5 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 28 of 59 | 47% | 22 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.
Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.
Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.
Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.
Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.
Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.
Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 66 of 177 | 37% | 73 of 187 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 147 of 278 | 52% | 149 of 282 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 23 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 29 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 73 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 27 of 79 | 34% | 28 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 47 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 66 of 177 | 37% | 25 of 130 | 16 of 19 | 25 of 28 | 66 of 174 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 147 of 278 | 52% | 124 of 247 | 17 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 142 of 271 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 18 of 50 | 36% | 6 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 29 of 71 | 40% | 19 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 21 of 48 | 43% | 8 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 71 of 121 | 58% | 66 of 113 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 68 of 116 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 27 of 79 | 34% | 11 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 27 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 47 of 86 | 54% | 39 of 74 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)
Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 109 of 266 | 40% | 109 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 137 of 235 | 58% | 137 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 92 | 31% | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 44 of 102 | 43% | 44 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 36 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 109 of 266 | 40% | 76 of 224 | 18 of 25 | 15 of 17 | 108 of 265 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 137 of 235 | 58% | 86 of 175 | 32 of 39 | 19 of 21 | 134 of 231 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 29 of 92 | 31% | 15 of 75 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 46 of 70 | 65% | 21 of 43 | 17 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 44 of 102 | 43% | 34 of 87 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 44 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 40 of 81 | 49% | 26 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 36 of 72 | 50% | 27 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 51 of 84 | 60% | 39 of 70 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.
Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.
Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.
The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.
Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.
The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.
Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.
The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.
Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.
The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Collier | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Collier | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Collier | 20 of 49 | 40% | 18 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Chase Sherman | 10 of 17 | 58% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Collier | 20 of 49 | 40% | 18 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Chase Sherman | 10 of 17 | 58% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.
Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.
Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.
Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.
The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.
Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 149 of 278 | 53% | 159 of 294 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 117 of 249 | 46% | 121 of 253 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 30 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 57 of 105 | 54% | 58 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 51 of 102 | 50% | 52 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 71 of 117 | 60% | 71 of 118 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 149 of 278 | 53% | 116 of 243 | 17 of 17 | 16 of 18 | 141 of 270 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 117 of 249 | 46% | 69 of 199 | 15 of 17 | 33 of 33 | 115 of 247 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 29 of 59 | 49% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 57 of 105 | 54% | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 55 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 102 | 50% | 27 of 77 | 11 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 71 of 117 | 60% | 54 of 100 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 36 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.
Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.
Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 105 of 222 | 47% | 109 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 88 of 192 | 45% | 99 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 46 of 88 | 52% | 46 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 105 of 222 | 47% | 54 of 154 | 26 of 39 | 25 of 29 | 103 of 217 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 88 of 192 | 45% | 55 of 154 | 16 of 20 | 17 of 18 | 84 of 187 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 51 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 33 of 69 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 21 of 58 | 36% | 12 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 46 of 88 | 52% | 23 of 56 | 12 of 21 | 11 of 11 | 46 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 34 of 65 | 52% | 21 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 33 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.
Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.
Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.
Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.
Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.
The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 1 | 51 of 87 | 58% | 51 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 16 of 54 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 87 | 58% | 27 of 57 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 15 | 46 of 80 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 16 of 54 | 29% | 13 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 39 of 69 | 56% | 17 of 42 | 13 of 15 | 9 of 12 | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 14 of 48 | 29% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 12 of 18 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.
Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.
Jared Vanderaa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 73 of 158 | 46% | 73 of 158 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 56 of 138 | 40% | 59 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 36 | 36% | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 73 of 158 | 46% | 41 of 117 | 26 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 73 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 56 of 138 | 40% | 12 of 92 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 41 | 52 of 128 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 22 of 39 | 56% | 12 of 26 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 36 | 36% | 1 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 12 | 13 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 25 of 53 | 47% | 9 of 33 | 12 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 21 of 51 | 41% | 4 of 33 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 14 | 17 of 41 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 26 of 66 | 39% | 20 of 58 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 22 of 51 | 43% | 7 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 15 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The heaviest match on the card also serves as its “featured fight,” as recent Contender Series pickup Cortes-Acosta (7-0, 0-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against the struggling Californian known as “The Mountain” Vanderaa (12-9, 1-5 UFC). The smash-em-up derby that could end with the swing of one mighty fist will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, who is fully prepared should he need to stop the fight in a flash. The two men totaling 519.5 mighty pounds do not touch gloves to greet one another, and instead get warned by Smith for outstretched fingers. Cortes-Acosta wades forward with a slapping low kick, and he chases Vanderaa around the cage while looking for range strikes. There is a great deal of feinting and faking, until Cortes-Acosta loads up and rips a right hand to the body. Throwing a punch that is more of a fastball than a traditional strike, Cortes-Acosta again targets the ribcage. The single strikes continue from Cortes-Acosta as practically the only offense thus far two minutes in. Cortes-Acosta lands two punches over the top, and he lines up a few more punches to knock Vanderaa back. Vanderaa attempts to respond, and Cortes-Acosta is faster and more accurate as he smacks Vanderaa with his fists. Cortes-Acosta prepares his right hand, chambering it to release in search of a knockout, and Vanderaa settles down with a few jabs. The Cortes-Acosta right hand finds its target and reddens up the forehead, and he mixes in a front kick to the body. Vanderaa slowly, methodically kicks the calf a few times, and Cortes-Acosta start showing a limp and changes stances briefly. The movement from Cortes-Acosta is slightly hampered, but he still gives chase to “The Mountain.” Vanderaa swipes out with a huge low kick, and it lands hard enough to force an immediate stance change. When Cortes-Acosta swaps, Vanderaa kicks the other leg, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Round 2
The second frame opens with a busy Cortes-Acosta rushing forward, and Vanderaa backs off and kicks the calf on the inside and out. The kicks keep on coming from “The Mountain,” as Cortes-Acosta changes stances and walks into a kick on the other side. Vanderaa secures a hard low kick, and this prompts Cortes-Acosta into immediate action. Possibly in big trouble from the kicks, Cortes-Acosta blitzes and swings hammers. Vanderaa rolls with some of them and eats others flush, and he survives and escapes. Two calf kicks from Vanderaa draw a limp, and Cortes-Acosta lets out a roar and plods forward to swing wildly. The kicks are hurting Cortes-Acosta, and he is showing it while the power of his overhand right is not nearly as severe as before. Vanderaa slaps another low kick after sticking out a jab, and Cortes-Acosta checks a subsequent kick and yells out triumphantly. Vanderaa rips the body with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta races in with a few haymakers. Vanderaa ties him up and unloads with a short salvo, and Cortes-Acosta dips and dodges before escaping. Cortes-Acosta sits down on a low kick to get one back, and the crowd roars its approval. Vanderaa swipes out with a left hook, and he gets off a leg kick as he backs out. Cortes-Acosta parries a few jabs and lands one to the midsection, and is subsequently warned for pointing his fingers out at his opponent. They both trade single punches, and Vanderaa kicks with both legs to the calf and body. After a brief clinch, they throw punches at the last second, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Round 3
The heavyweights take the stage for the final round, and they begin tentatively as Cortes-Acosta reaches out and gets popped with a quick uppercut. The jabs come from the two fighters at about the 30-second mark, and Cortes-Acosta throws a kick up high. Vanderaa times this with a leg kick so he does damage on the plant leg, and he kicks on the other side of that same leg to follow. Cortes-Acosta connects with a clean right hand, and a left, but neither frazzle Vanderaa or slow him from low kicks. Vanderaa keeps active with low kicks, and one spins Cortes-Acosta all the way around. Cortes-Acosta headhunts while Vanderaa kicks, and this pattern does not change one iota. Vanderaa walks into an overhand right, and he grits his teeth and rides out the rest of a combination, as his nose begins to bleed. Vanderaa rushes forward but pulls back before throwing anything, and when he finally engages, Cortes-Acosta is there to greet him with an overhand right. Vanderaa attempts to respond, but Cortes-Acosta rolls through it and flashes out a few jabs. Cortes-Acosta starts showboating, dancing around and doing moves while showing off. Vanderaa answers this with a heavy leg kick, and Cortes-Acosta does not pay it any mind and throws a haymaker. Vanderaa starts dancing, and a kick from him forces Cortes-Acosta to cough out his mouthpiece. Cortes-Acosta replaces it and gets his lead leg chopped down, and the final 30 seconds lead to a sloppy but energetic slugfest. When the horn sounds, they both hug it out after a strange fight that made it the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Jared Vanderaa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Vanderaa's poor fight IQ and lack of takedown attempts, noting that Vanderaa has a clear path to victory via wrestling but fails to execute. He highlights Acosta's power and volume, and believes Vanderaa's terrible striking defense will lead to a knockout.
Cody picks Waldo but is not betting him due to the -200 price and Waldo's greenness. He highlights Waldo's boxing background, solid takedown defense, and development at 31 years old. He criticizes Jared Vanderaa's low fight IQ, citing his poor decision to wrestle Alexey Oleynik and his lack of takedown attempts against Chase Sherman. Cody prefers the over 1.5 rounds prop as a betting angle.
Daniel Levi picks Acosta, but is not impressed enough to lay the -195 price. He views Vanderaa as a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC (1-5 record) and likes to fade him. He acknowledges Acosta's boxing background and power but notes he is still green. He passes on betting but picks Acosta to win.
Jacob picks Waldo but is not confident due to heavyweight volatility. He thinks Waldo will chase a first-round finish, but if Vanderaa survives, he could grind out a decision. Jacob suggests a Waldo first-round play but advises staying away.
Acosta is a complete fighter who can keep up with Vanderaa's pace and push him against the cage. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak and struggles when pressured. However, paying -195 on a Contender Series heavyweight is risky. The over 1.5 rounds prop is a better bet as both fighters tend to clinch and grapple, eating clock.
Paul also picks Waldo, noting his boxing base, LFA title win, and training in Arizona. He acknowledges Vanderaa could win if he implements a high-volume, forward-pressure game plan as he did against Justin Tafa, but doubts Vanderaa's consistency and fight IQ. Paul mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential play but is not fully committed.
The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Jared Vanderaa, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Acosta is too dangerous early for Vanderaa, who makes poor decisions and is coming off a KO loss on short turnaround. He notes Acosta's power and regional win over Thomas Peterson, and predicts Acosta will catch Vanderaa swinging wildly and win by first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 109 of 266 | 40% | 109 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 137 of 235 | 58% | 137 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 92 | 31% | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 44 of 102 | 43% | 44 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 36 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 109 of 266 | 40% | 76 of 224 | 18 of 25 | 15 of 17 | 108 of 265 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 137 of 235 | 58% | 86 of 175 | 32 of 39 | 19 of 21 | 134 of 231 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 29 of 92 | 31% | 15 of 75 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 46 of 70 | 65% | 21 of 43 | 17 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 44 of 102 | 43% | 34 of 87 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 44 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 40 of 81 | 49% | 26 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 36 of 72 | 50% | 27 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 51 of 84 | 60% | 39 of 70 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.
Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.
Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.
The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.
Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.
The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksei Oleinik | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:44 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksei Oleinik | 8 of 22 | 36% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 15 of 40 | 37% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aleksei Oleinik | 8 of 22 | 36% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 15 of 40 | 37% | 13 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.
Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.
Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.
Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.
I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.
Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.
The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 64 of 133 | 48% | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 70 of 156 | 44% | 102 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 30 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 33 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 64 of 133 | 48% | 40 of 100 | 19 of 26 | 5 of 7 | 60 of 128 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 70 of 156 | 44% | 30 of 110 | 24 of 29 | 16 of 17 | 55 of 134 | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 30 of 55 | 54% | 18 of 42 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 23 of 58 | 39% | 13 of 46 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 41 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 19 of 42 | 45% | 6 of 27 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 35 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 28 of 56 | 50% | 11 of 37 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 11 | 21 of 46 | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.
Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.
Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.
Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.
Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.
Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.
The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, citing his veteran striking and experience. He views Vanderaa as a bottom-feeder who takes too much damage and expects Arlovski to pick him apart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 78 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 6:31 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 47 of 58 | 81% | 68 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 56 of 78 | 71% | 48 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 23 | 56% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 21 | 61% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 47 of 58 | 81% | 42 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.
Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.
Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.
Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.
The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.
Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 74 of 147 | 50% | 74 of 147 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 121 of 248 | 48% | 141 of 269 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 31 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 26 of 47 | 55% | 26 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 47 of 90 | 52% | 60 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 3 | Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 33 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 43 of 94 | 45% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Vanderaa | 74 of 147 | 50% | 35 of 102 | 32 of 38 | 7 of 7 | 70 of 143 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 121 of 248 | 48% | 64 of 181 | 34 of 43 | 23 of 24 | 104 of 226 | 17 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Vanderaa | 15 of 38 | 39% | 9 of 31 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 31 of 64 | 48% | 14 of 44 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 11 | 27 of 58 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Vanderaa | 26 of 47 | 55% | 14 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 47 of 90 | 52% | 26 of 66 | 12 of 15 | 9 of 9 | 39 of 79 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Vanderaa | 33 of 62 | 53% | 12 of 38 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 43 of 94 | 45% | 24 of 71 | 15 of 19 | 4 of 4 | 38 of 89 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.
Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.
Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.
Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.
The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 0 | 51 of 72 | 70% | 107 of 135 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 8:29 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 27 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 38 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 18 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 0 | 36 of 52 | 69% | 69 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:03 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serghei Spivac | 51 of 72 | 70% | 51 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 55 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Serghei Spivac | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 10 of 15 | 66% | 5 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Serghei Spivac | 36 of 52 | 69% | 36 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 44 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 3 of 9 | 33% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel Levi praises Serghei Spivac's tough competition in the UFC, having faced Walt Harris, Tai Tuivasa, Marcin Tybura, and Carlos Felipe. He believes Vanderaa is the first 'softball' of Spivac's UFC run and expects Spivac to handle him decisively. Levi notes Spivac's versatility, whether by head kick, schoolyard headlock, or grinding out a decision. He is confident in Spivac's skills and training at Extreme Couture.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.
Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.
Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.
The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.
Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.
The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.
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