Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov
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Career Averages - Chase Sherman
Alexandr Romanov
Chase Sherman
Alexandr Romanov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 45 of 92 | 48% | 87 of 135 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 7:33 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 31 of 91 | 34% | 48 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 32 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 26 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 45 of 92 | 48% | 37 of 82 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 79 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 31 of 91 | 34% | 19 of 77 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 17 of 28 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 10 of 34 | 29% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 26 of 59 | 44% | 21 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 20 of 56 | 35% | 12 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.
Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.
Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.
Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.
Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.
The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.
Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.
Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.
Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.
Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.
The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.
Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 85 of 154 | 55% | 104 of 180 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 44 of 108 | 40% | 44 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 46 of 82 | 56% | 49 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 85 of 154 | 55% | 52 of 121 | 11 of 11 | 22 of 22 | 74 of 137 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 13 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 44 of 108 | 40% | 38 of 102 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 17 of 31 | 54% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 13 of 29 | 44% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 22 of 41 | 53% | 12 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 9 of 28 | 32% | 7 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 46 of 82 | 56% | 35 of 71 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 22 of 51 | 43% | 20 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.
Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.
Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.
Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.
Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.
The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)
Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.
Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.
Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.
Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.
I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.
Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.
Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 47 of 98 | 47% | 82 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 95 of 160 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 5:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 64 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 47 of 98 | 47% | 30 of 74 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 40 of 88 | 45% | 24 of 65 | 7 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 14 of 18 | 77% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 9 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 17 of 36 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 30 of 59 | 50% | 20 of 43 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 15 of 45 | 33% | 7 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.
Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.
Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.
Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.
Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.
Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.
The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.
Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.
The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.
Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.
The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 78 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 6:31 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 47 of 58 | 81% | 68 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 56 of 78 | 71% | 48 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 23 | 56% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 21 | 61% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 47 of 58 | 81% | 42 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.
Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.
Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.
Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.
The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.
Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 53 of 77 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:41 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 44 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 38 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 32 of 53 | 60% | 23 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 27 |
| Juan Espino | 12 of 22 | 54% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Juan Espino | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 23 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 27 |
| Juan Espino | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Juan Espino | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.
Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.
Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.
Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.
Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.
Chase Sherman - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 70 of 165 | 42% | 85 of 191 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 54 of 158 | 34% | 64 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 34 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 70 of 165 | 42% | 53 of 147 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 54 of 158 | 34% | 26 of 124 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 46 of 148 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 23 of 63 | 36% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 13 of 56 | 23% | 5 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 28 of 59 | 47% | 22 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.
Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.
Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.
Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.
Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.
Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.
Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 66 of 177 | 37% | 73 of 187 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 147 of 278 | 52% | 149 of 282 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 18 of 50 | 36% | 23 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 71 | 40% | 29 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 71 of 121 | 58% | 73 of 123 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 27 of 79 | 34% | 28 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 47 of 86 | 54% | 47 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 66 of 177 | 37% | 25 of 130 | 16 of 19 | 25 of 28 | 66 of 174 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 147 of 278 | 52% | 124 of 247 | 17 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 142 of 271 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 18 of 50 | 36% | 6 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 18 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 29 of 71 | 40% | 19 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 69 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 21 of 48 | 43% | 8 of 34 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 21 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 71 of 121 | 58% | 66 of 113 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 68 of 116 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 27 of 79 | 34% | 11 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 12 | 27 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 47 of 86 | 54% | 39 of 74 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortes-Acosta (-210), Sherman (+180)
Round 1
The year is 2022, and because of unfortunate circumstances, Sherman (16-10, 4-9 UFC), who has won four times in 13 walks to the Octagon thus far, is serving in a UFC card’s co-main event. He is on a one-fight win streak, as he put Jared Vanderaa away in July to break a four-fight skid. “The Vanilla Gorilla” will square off against an unbeaten former baseball player in Cortes-Acosta (8-0, 1-0 UFC), who also beat Vanderaa a few weeks ago. Referee Jacob Montalvo draws the charge for a fight that could end in an instant, but he does appreciate that the two are in good spirits as they touch ‘em up before colliding. The big men aim jabs and single punches at one another to measure their range. Sherman strikes first with a powerful strike, sinking in a calf kick on the inside of the leg and the another on the outside. Cortes-Acosta snaps the head back with a jab, and Sherman smashes his shin on the calf as “Salsa Boy” does a little impromptu dance to recover. Sherman puts his jab in his foe’s face, and Cortes-Acosta responds in kind. Sherman mixes things up with his low kicks, and he plants his leg on the midsection as well. Cortes-Acosta charges with a flurry, and Sherman slides out of the way of the worst of it and sinks in another low kick. Cortes-Acosta rifles a few jabs and a right hand down the pipe, and Sherman takes it on the chin. The big men kick at the same time, and they both take an odd step back before coming back to trade hands. Sherman sticks and moves as Cortes-Acosta rushes forward in a straight line, but he does not avoid the chopping kick at the end of the salvo. Sherman backs the undefeated fighter up, but he does not walk face-first into a big overhand right. Cortes-Acosta loads up on power punches, and Sherman keeps his composure and trashes the lead leg of his opponent with a brutal kick. Cortes-Acosta reaches down and grabs it, where he uses it to bully Sherman into the wall in hopes of dragging him down. Sherman escapes and turns the tables to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta plays the proverbial game of putting one hand down on the mat to prevent knee strikes to the head. Cortes-Acosta explodes out with a jab and an uppercut, but Sherman takes the wind out of his sails by throwing him down on the floor and landing in side control. Before anything can come of it, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sherman
Round 2
The second round opens with several stiff jabs from the ex-baseball player, and he walks through a low kick to continue jabbing Sherman up. Sherman’s face begins to turn red as he absorbs repeated jabs, and he backs off when Cortes-Acosta turns up the offense and attacks. “Salsa Boy” blitzes Sherman with a long series of punches, knocking Sherman’s head around and hurting him badly. Sherman survives by clinching up and hanging on to clear his head, doing so long enough to shake it out before Cortes-Acosta pushes him away. When separated, Cortes-Acosta unloads again with a string of punches, and Sherman takes them all and fires back to rock Cortes-Acosta. The undefeated fighter bounces off the wall and connects with a right hand that stuns Sherman, but Sherman’s chin holds together after the ferocious blow. Cortes-Acosta rails Sherman with heavy punches, and he shrugs off a leg kick and stops a takedown that is aimed at him. Cortes-Acosta pops out several jabs to fluster Sherman, and he checks a low kick and does a showboating dance. Cortes-Acosta surges into action, battering Sherman with several fierce punches. Cortes-Acosta catches a low kick and responds with a body kick, but Sherman protests the foot hit him in the groin. Montalvo tell them to play on, and Cortes-Acosta obliges by swarming his man with punches. Cortes-Acosta unleashes a hellacious salvo of uppercuts, standing hammerfists, flailing fists and other ridiculous punches in hopes of getting Sherman out of there, but Sherman makes it through them all. Cortes-Acosta appears to have completely spent his gas tank searching for that finish, as he practically puts his hands on his hips from fatigue. The round concludes with the two clinched up.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Cortes-Acosta
Round 3
The heavyweights reach the last round, and both men are feeling it. Sherman appears the fresher man of the two, as Cortes-Acosta is slowed and keeps his hands low. The volume of the two fighters has diminished greatly, relegated to bursts of one man and then the other. Cortes-Acosta checks a low kick and takes a front kick to the body, and Sherman kicks him in the side. This third kick prompts Cortes-Acosta into action, as he races forward with a booming right hand. Sherman is barely on his feet, and Cortes-Acosta pummels him with a few more fastballs that Sherman incredibly takes. The two are sucking wind, and Sherman gathers himself and walks Cortes-Acosta down and connects with a few punches and a knee up the middle. They trade punches, with defense an afterthought as exhaustion overcomes both men. Cortes-Acosta works the body and head, and starts playing around with his hands as he does not appear concerned with Sherman’s power. Sherman answers this with a few quick punches and a low kick, and a second makes Cortes-Acosta wag his finger at him. Cortes-Acosta ducks down with a right hand up top, and he is so spent that he can barely make a fist. As a result, Cortes-Acosta slaps Sherman a few times with an open hand, and Sherman jumps forward with heavy punches. Cortes-Acosta flails and swings with little mustard on his shots, and he still catches Sherman coming at him with a short right hand. Try as he might, the unbeaten fighter cannot put Sherman out of there, but he backs away and keeps throwing punches and kicks right to the final horn. Sherman is tough, doing the same, and walking through anything coming his way, and this heavyweight slobberknocker has surprisingly gone the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-27 Cortes-Acosta)
The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Chase Sherman via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 109 of 266 | 40% | 109 of 267 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 137 of 235 | 58% | 137 of 235 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 92 | 31% | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 46 of 70 | 65% | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 44 of 102 | 43% | 44 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 36 of 72 | 50% | 36 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 1 | 51 of 84 | 60% | 51 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 109 of 266 | 40% | 76 of 224 | 18 of 25 | 15 of 17 | 108 of 265 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 137 of 235 | 58% | 86 of 175 | 32 of 39 | 19 of 21 | 134 of 231 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 29 of 92 | 31% | 15 of 75 | 6 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 46 of 70 | 65% | 21 of 43 | 17 of 19 | 8 of 8 | 46 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 44 of 102 | 43% | 34 of 87 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 44 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 40 of 81 | 49% | 26 of 62 | 7 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chase Sherman | 36 of 72 | 50% | 27 of 62 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 35 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 51 of 84 | 60% | 39 of 70 | 8 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 48 of 80 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.
Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.
Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.
The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.
Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.
The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.
Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.
The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.
Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.
The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Collier | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Collier | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Collier | 20 of 49 | 40% | 18 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Chase Sherman | 10 of 17 | 58% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jake Collier | 20 of 49 | 40% | 18 of 46 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 12 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 13 |
| Chase Sherman | 10 of 17 | 58% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sherman in a close fight, citing his better athleticism and pace. He notes both are similar boxers but Sherman has better volume and durability, while Collier may fade. He expects a striking war going to decision and won't bet on it.
Big Brady notes Jake Collier throws high volume but has no power, while Chase Sherman hits hard and has a 93% knockout rate. He thinks Sherman's durability and power will be the difference, predicting a knockout. However, he admits neither fighter is reliable and that Collier could win a decision if he survives. He picks Sherman by knockout but is not confident.
Cody picks Collier, agreeing with Paul's analysis. He notes Sherman's cardio issues and Collier's volume striking. He expects Collier to win by decision or late TKO. He mentions the over 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced, indicating a likely decision.
Daniel Levi picks Jake Collier, citing his higher work rate and slightly better technique. He warns about Chase Sherman's leg kicks and durability but notes Sherman's cardio drops off in later rounds, which has been a consistent issue even before his USADA suspension. Levi believes Collier can capitalize on Sherman's fatigue and land effective strikes. He also mentions that Collier looked good against Valente and that Sherman has shown a tendency to shy away in tough fights.
The host favors Jake Collier due to his high output and movement, similar to Parker Porter who beat Sherman. He notes Sherman's power is a threat early, but Collier's volume and cardio should take over as the fight progresses. He expects Collier to win a decision, as he doesn't see Collier finishing Sherman. The host is confident in Collier's ability to avoid Sherman's power and accumulate strikes.
Paul picks Collier, citing Sherman's pattern of gassing after the first round. He notes Collier's high volume and durability, and expects him to outwork Sherman in rounds 2 and 3. He suggests betting Collier live after round 1 as a hedge. He also mentions Collier by decision at +150 as a prop.
The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Jake Collier, despite acknowledging that most people are picking Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman has poor head movement and was easily beaten by Arlovski and Parker Porter. Collier, though he ballooned up from middleweight, showed some skill against Carlos Felipe and has a reach advantage. He believes Collier's technical advantages from being a former middleweight will carry him to a close split decision win in a back-and-forth fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 0 | 149 of 278 | 53% | 159 of 294 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 117 of 249 | 46% | 121 of 253 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 30 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 0 | 57 of 105 | 54% | 58 of 107 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 51 of 102 | 50% | 52 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 0 | 71 of 117 | 60% | 71 of 118 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 39 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Porter | 149 of 278 | 53% | 116 of 243 | 17 of 17 | 16 of 18 | 141 of 270 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 117 of 249 | 46% | 69 of 199 | 15 of 17 | 33 of 33 | 115 of 247 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parker Porter | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Chase Sherman | 29 of 59 | 49% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Parker Porter | 57 of 105 | 54% | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 55 of 103 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 102 | 50% | 27 of 77 | 11 of 12 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 101 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Parker Porter | 71 of 117 | 60% | 54 of 100 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 113 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 37 of 88 | 42% | 22 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 36 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Chase Sherman confidently, citing his better competition, toughness, and power. He notes Porter is very hittable and has been finished in all his losses. Sherman has a 93% finish rate, all by knockout. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Sherman, citing his athleticism, leg kicks, and volume. He notes Sherman's improved game since his first UFC stint and believes he has a clear advantage. He mentions Sherman's back issues and past PED suspension but still favors him.
Porter has good durability, leg kicks, and clinch work. Sherman's volume drops in later rounds, while Porter maintains his pace. If Porter survives the first round, he can take over. I'm picking Porter by decision, but I'm hesitant as some respected people are on Sherman.
Paul leans toward Porter as a live underdog, highlighting his durability, leg kicks, and pressure. He questions Sherman's cardio and mental toughness, noting Sherman looked defeated against Arlovski. He sees Porter's ability to push pace and land leg kicks as key, but worries about Porter's weight cut and shape.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman to win by TKO. He notes Sherman is bigger, has good cardio, and a reach advantage. He expects Sherman to use elbows against the cage on the shorter Porter. He acknowledges Porter's win over Josh Parisian but considers it unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 105 of 222 | 47% | 109 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 88 of 192 | 45% | 99 of 203 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 33 of 69 | 47% | 33 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 36 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 21 of 58 | 36% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 0 | 46 of 88 | 52% | 46 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 34 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Arlovski | 105 of 222 | 47% | 54 of 154 | 26 of 39 | 25 of 29 | 103 of 217 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 88 of 192 | 45% | 55 of 154 | 16 of 20 | 17 of 18 | 84 of 187 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrei Arlovski | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 51 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 8 | 25 of 61 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 33 of 69 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 31 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrei Arlovski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 47 | 10 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 32 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 21 of 58 | 36% | 12 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Andrei Arlovski | 46 of 88 | 52% | 23 of 56 | 12 of 21 | 11 of 11 | 46 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 34 of 65 | 52% | 21 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 33 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Andrei Arlovski to win by decision, though he is not very confident. He notes that Arlovski is a favorite for the first time in many fights and that Sherman is the easiest opponent Arlovski has faced in a long time. He highlights Sherman's poor striking defense (absorbs 5.55 significant strikes per minute) and Arlovski's good defense (absorbs 2.83). However, he is concerned about Arlovski's age (42) and lack of knockout power. He sees the fight as close and likely to go to decision.
Cody thinks Arlovski is old and boring, landing only 30-50 significant strikes per fight. He notes Sherman is younger, has better output, and is improving. He sees Sherman outpointing Arlovski and considers it a dog or pass fight, leaning towards Sherman as the underdog.
Daniel Levi leans toward Arlovski, noting that he is the better fighter and a sharp counter-puncher. He acknowledges that Chase Sherman has good leg kicks and is 10 years younger, and that Arlovski is coming off a loss to Tom Aspinall. Levi mentions that he has faded Arlovski in the past with mixed results, but this time he thinks Arlovski can win a close decision. He also speculates that Sherman might still be using performance-enhancing drugs.
Manpreet leans toward Sherman by KO, citing his improved calf-kick-heavy style and the fact that Arlovski's movement-based game could be neutralized by leg kicks. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Sherman's post-suspension performance but believes Sherman's pressure and power can lead to a finish, likely in the second round after wearing Arlovski down.
Paul says friends don't let friends bet on Chase Sherman, but he is leaning towards Sherman as the underdog. He acknowledges both fighters are bottom heavyweights and that Sherman is 11 years younger. He is not confident and calls it a pitbull or pass fight.
The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski to win by unanimous decision. He notes Arlovski is a tricky veteran who is patient and pushes a good pace. He believes Chase Sherman needs to overwhelm opponents to win, but Arlovski's level of opposition is much higher. He expects Sherman to go all out in the first round, but Arlovski will take over in the second and third for a 29-28 decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 1 | 51 of 87 | 58% | 51 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 16 of 54 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 87 | 58% | 27 of 57 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 15 | 46 of 80 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 16 of 54 | 29% | 13 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 39 of 69 | 56% | 17 of 42 | 13 of 15 | 9 of 12 | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 14 of 48 | 29% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 12 of 18 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.
Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.
Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.
The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.
Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.
The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.
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