UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Francisco Figueiredo
2.04 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.59 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
2.51 TD Avg
75.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Daniel Lacerda
3.95 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
8.28 SApM
34.0% Str. Def.
2.32 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Francisco Figueiredo
Moneyline
FanDuel +114
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
BetMGM +300
Daniel Lacerda
Moneyline
Caesars -120
KO/TKO
FanDuel +400
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
DraftKings +330
Francisco Figueiredo - Fight History
LOSS vs Amir Albazi
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 4:34 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amir Albazi 0 12 of 18 66% 23 of 29 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:36
Francisco Figueiredo 0 11 of 15 73% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amir Albazi 0 12 of 18 66% 23 of 29 2 of 4 50% 1 0 2:36
Francisco Figueiredo 0 11 of 15 73% 14 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amir Albazi 12 of 18 66% 10 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
Francisco Figueiredo 11 of 15 73% 2 of 3 4 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amir Albazi 12 of 18 66% 10 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 10
Francisco Figueiredo 11 of 15 73% 2 of 3 4 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Angelo picks Amir Albazi over Francisco Figueiredo. He describes Albazi as a legit prospect with solid grappling, striking, and high pace, who is light on his toes and can quickly snatch a leg for takedowns. He notes that Figueiredo is about 75% of his brother's ability, but is better at wrestling and grappling. Angelo believes Albazi has the edge in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects a one-sided decision. The only concern is Albazi's year-and-a-half layoff, which prevents Angelo from making him a parlay piece.

Confident in Albazi to win but won't make him the tentpole of a parlay due to layoff.
"i like amir to win this a with a one-sided decision and the only thing preventing me from making amir a parlay piece is the layoff"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Big Brady is confident in Amir Albazi. He criticizes Francisco Figueiredo's low volume (1.92 significant strikes per minute), lack of power, and poor cardio, noting he lost rounds to Malcolm Gordon and Jerome Rivera. Albazi is well-rounded, has better volume, power, cardio, and grappling. Brady expects Albazi to win by decision, though he mentions a late finish is possible. He sees Albazi having the advantage everywhere.

Albazi by decision
"i like obazi here to win i like albazi to win by either like a third round late finish or a decision i'll say decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Cody picks Albazi, emphasizing his fluid striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio problems and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is on a different level and should win comfortably.

"i just think that the kids operating on a different level"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Daniel Levi leans toward Amir Albazi but is not confident enough to bet at -500. He thinks Albazi is a fantastic prospect but notes that he has been out for over a year and that Francisco Figueiredo is not as bad as the line suggests. Levi points out that Figueiredo made a bad decision in the Malcolm Gordon fight (dropping back for a leg lock from full mount) but has talent. He expects the fight to be competitive early, with Albazi pulling away later, but says it's a dog-or-pass situation.

Says he is not betting minus 500 because he expects a competitive fight, not a destruction. Mentions that Figueiredo's decision-making needs to improve.
"pure pick I'll go out Bazi but I ain't betting minus 500 on him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Albazi is a promising flyweight prospect with strong wrestling and improving hands. He should dominate Figueiredo, who is low-level and only wins by early knockout. Albazi's grappling and durability will be too much; he can win by decision or finish. The host includes Albazi in a four-leg parlay.

Included in a four-leg parlay with Maverick, under 1.5 in Pedro/Hunsucker, and Usman round 4-5/decision.
"I love amira here I think he's worth the track I think he absolutely destroys this kid so give me our mural bazi."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Amir Albazi

Paul picks Albazi, citing his superior striking and grappling. He notes Figueiredo's cardio issues and lack of power. He thinks Albazi is the better fighter everywhere and should win, but the -500 line offers little value.

"i like albazi but again it's like a minus 500. figuredo is an underdog that i will not be getting to um not not a fan of not a fan of his not a big i mean the volume isn't …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Amir Albazi

The Guru predicts Amir Albazi wins by second-round submission via rear-naked choke. He describes Albazi landing jabs and shots over the top, while Figueiredo is defensively irresponsible. He sees Albazi taking Figueiredo down, taking the back, and locking in a standing rear-naked choke in round two.

Submission via rear-naked choke in round 2
"rear naked choke for amir al bazi in the second round is what i'm going to go for"
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:18 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.

"i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.

first round KO
"i'm gonna take daniel de silva to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.

"i think i mean frankie figure eight will probably there's nothing that uh that daniel lacerda can do to him that he hasn't seen in the gym"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.

"slightly lean with francisco but ... it's a 50 50 fight give me the dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.

Figueiredo by decision +275
"i'm gonna go with another underdog shot here in francisco figuerado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.

"i'm gonna take a shot on it why"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.

Lacerda by submission
"i'm going to trust on a full camp daniel de silva is going to have a great performance against francisco figuerado... gets himself like a submission win some point early on in the fight"
LOSS vs Malcolm Gordon
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Malcolm Gordon 0 28 of 45 62% 52 of 70 2 of 2 100% 0 1 4:15
Francisco Figueiredo 0 46 of 84 54% 100 of 145 2 of 11 18% 0 0 6:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Malcolm Gordon 0 6 of 8 75% 16 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:46
Francisco Figueiredo 0 15 of 20 75% 34 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:48
2 Malcolm Gordon 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Francisco Figueiredo 0 22 of 55 40% 26 of 59 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:47
3 Malcolm Gordon 0 2 of 3 66% 16 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Francisco Figueiredo 0 9 of 9 100% 40 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Malcolm Gordon 28 of 45 62% 16 of 30 7 of 10 5 of 5 18 of 32 4 of 5 6 of 8
Francisco Figueiredo 46 of 84 54% 40 of 78 2 of 2 4 of 4 22 of 54 5 of 7 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Malcolm Gordon 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 5
Francisco Figueiredo 15 of 20 75% 11 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 14
2 Malcolm Gordon 20 of 34 58% 10 of 21 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0
Francisco Figueiredo 22 of 55 40% 21 of 54 0 of 0 1 of 1 18 of 49 3 of 5 1 of 1
3 Malcolm Gordon 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3
Francisco Figueiredo 9 of 9 100% 8 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 8
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody is confident in Francisco Figueiredo, but he prefers prop bets. He has placed bets on Figueiredo inside the distance and under 2.5 rounds, citing Malcolm Gordon's poor chin and durability issues. He acknowledges Figueiredo's lack of power but believes Gordon's susceptibility to getting knocked out makes this a good prop play.

Figueiredo inside the distance (+125), under 2.5 rounds (-125)
"I took figareto inside the distance plus 125 and i got figurator gordon under two and a half minus 125."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo, but he is not high on him. He notes that Malcolm Gordon cannot take a punch and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He thinks Figueiredo just needs to land one clean shot to win, but he also acknowledges that Gordon could have success if the fight stays standing. Ultimately, he goes with Figueiredo.

"I'm gonna have to go figure rado."
WIN vs Jerome Rivera
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 29 of 53 54% 39 of 65 4 of 6 66% 0 0 7:07
Jerome Rivera 0 31 of 134 23% 85 of 199 0 of 5 0% 0 1 1:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 27 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Jerome Rivera 0 12 of 35 34% 29 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:10
2 Francisco Figueiredo 0 13 of 18 72% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Jerome Rivera 0 5 of 33 15% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
3 Francisco Figueiredo 0 8 of 18 44% 8 of 18 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:57
Jerome Rivera 0 14 of 66 21% 34 of 89 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 29 of 53 54% 11 of 28 7 of 11 11 of 14 20 of 40 4 of 4 5 of 9
Jerome Rivera 31 of 134 23% 12 of 90 8 of 20 11 of 24 22 of 112 9 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 17 47% 3 of 7 3 of 6 2 of 4 5 of 12 2 of 2 1 of 3
Jerome Rivera 12 of 35 34% 1 of 16 5 of 9 6 of 10 8 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Francisco Figueiredo 13 of 18 72% 5 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 6 9 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Jerome Rivera 5 of 33 15% 3 of 22 0 of 4 2 of 7 4 of 29 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Francisco Figueiredo 8 of 18 44% 3 of 12 2 of 2 3 of 4 6 of 16 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jerome Rivera 14 of 66 21% 8 of 52 3 of 7 3 of 7 10 of 54 4 of 12 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

Big Brady admits he could find very little tape on Francisco Figueiredo and what he saw was unimpressive, with poor striking defense and ground game. He thinks the -150 line is based on the name rather than skill. He picks Jerome Rivera, who has a good ground game and submission skills, but is not confident because he knows little about Figueiredo. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

Rivera by decision; not confident
"i'm gonna take the underdog here in jerome rivera not all the confident"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The host picks Jerome Rivera due to his activity, height advantage, and jiu-jitsu, but is hesitant because of limited tape on Francisco Figueiredo. He thinks Rivera can overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and movement, but acknowledges the unknown factor of Figueiredo's game. He predicts a decision win for Rivera.

"i will pick jerome to win i do think he gets it done via decision but i wouldn't be surprised if we see some wrinkles from figueretto's game"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Jerome Rivera

The MMA Guru picks Jerome Rivera as an underdog, criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's performance in his last fight (a controversial draw against Eduardo Souza) and his reliance on his brother's name. He notes Rivera was beating Tyson Nam before getting caught, and has good takedown defense and offensive grappling. He predicts Rivera will pick Figueiredo apart on the outside and win a unanimous decision 30-27.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna definitely pick jerome rivera here in an upset against francisco figuerado"
Daniel Lacerda - Fight History
LOSS vs Édgar Cháirez
SUB R1 2:17 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
LOSS vs Édgar Cháirez
No Contest (overturned) R1 3:47 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Edgar Chairez (131: Missed Weight) vs. Daniel da Silva (127: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chairez (-355), da Silva (+280)

Round 1
Running back a meeting from September that went awry due to an early stoppage from Chris Tognoni, overturning the fight to a no contest, Chairez (10-5, 1 NC; 0-1, 1 NC UFC) and da Silva (11-5, 1 NC; 0-4, 1 NC UFC) will settle their business in the second go-round. Chairez had snared his foe in a standing guillotine choke that mistakenly was identified at one that rendered da Silva unconscious, so da Silva will need to protect his neck this time around. Both fighters ended up missing weight for what was supposed to be a catchweight contest, as the Brazilian came in a pound heavy while Chairez whiffed by five pounds. The referee for the rematch will be Marc Goddard, and the fighters decide to touch gloves despite their history. Chairez reintroduces himself with a faked high kick, and da Silva sits down on offense to counter. Both men fire off kicks at the same time, and Chairez’ slides up and might have bumped the cup but there is no pause. They aim kicks at one another from a distance, taking turns and loading up on one after the other. Chairez spins with a wheel kick that slides off the shoulder, and he recovers and pushes out a front kick. The Brazilian responds with two kicks to the body, and Chairez drives him back with a thudding one-two. Chairez gives chase, and da Silva takes his momentum and repurposes it to tackle Chairez to the ground. Chairez starts talking to the man on top of him, and da Silva answers by elbowing him in the face repeatedly. Chairez kicks off to get some space, and he wraps up a high guard and sets up a triangle choke.
Chairez switches his leg grip to an omoplata, and then goes back to a triangle choke. “Puro Chicali” fastens his legs tight and uses his arms to pull da Silva’s head down to complete the submission. It only takes seconds for da Silva to realize he is beaten, and he taps out on the hip.
Chairez immediately releases, and both men hug it out and express great respect for one another by bowing. The rivalry is complete with no early stoppage this time, and da Silva is now winless in six walks to the Octagon. In victory, the Mexican fighter's coach wraps a purple belt around Chairez' waist, who maintains his 100% finish rate while landing his seventh career submission.

The Official Result
Edgar Chairez def. Daniel da Silva R1 2:17 via Submission (Triangle Choke)
LOSS vs C.J. Vergara
TKO (punches) R2 4:04 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
C.J. Vergara 0 83 of 144 57% 98 of 164 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:54
Daniel Lacerda 2 48 of 117 41% 51 of 120 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 C.J. Vergara 0 20 of 38 52% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 2 44 of 103 42% 46 of 105 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:40
2 C.J. Vergara 0 63 of 106 59% 74 of 122 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:51
Daniel Lacerda 0 4 of 14 28% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
C.J. Vergara 83 of 144 57% 57 of 103 16 of 29 10 of 12 34 of 65 0 of 2 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 48 of 117 41% 32 of 94 11 of 17 5 of 6 42 of 106 4 of 7 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 C.J. Vergara 20 of 38 52% 8 of 21 4 of 8 8 of 9 20 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 44 of 103 42% 30 of 84 9 of 13 5 of 6 38 of 92 4 of 7 2 of 4
2 C.J. Vergara 63 of 106 59% 49 of 82 12 of 21 2 of 3 14 of 29 0 of 0 49 of 77
Daniel Lacerda 4 of 14 28% 2 of 10 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Angelo is very confident in Vergara, calling him one of his most confident picks. He notes that Vergara is a high-pressure fighter who stays busy and is tough. He thinks da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's pressure will be too much. He recommends betting 'fight doesn't go to decision' rather than a moneyline.

Fight doesn't go to decision (recommended parlay piece)
"CJ Vergara is one of my most confident picks on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Big Brady picks C.J. Vergara by first-round knockout, calling Daniel da Silva not UFC caliber. He notes da Silva's poor cardio (2.5 minutes of gas), lack of durability, and tendency to fold under adversity. Brady believes Vergara's pressure and toughness will overwhelm da Silva, who has been finished in all three UFC losses. He expects a quick finish as soon as da Silva faces any adversity.

Vergara by KO/TKO in round 1
"I like Vergara here I like vegara by finish first round finish even"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Cody picks Vergara, calling the line bad and favoring Vergara's heart and cardio. He notes da Silva is explosive but fades after the first round, while Vergara is tenacious and breaks opponents down. He suggests Vergara inside the distance and likes the over 1.5 rounds on PrizePicks (over 5 minutes).

Vergara inside the distance; over 1.5 rounds
"Pick would be varaguera to improve this thing bear gear inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Vergara without hesitation. He describes Lacerda as a 'flyweight Eric Silva' who is dangerous in the first minute but then falls apart. Vergara is a proven tough guy who hangs around and doesn't get blown out, making him a reliable pick against a fighter with no regulation or longevity in his style.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm with you all the way on this one."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Jacob picks Vergara, agreeing that he should win with toughness. He notes that da Silva is dangerous early but fades, and Vergara's toughness should carry him. However, he feels da Silva is 'due' for a win and might pull off an upset, but still picks Vergara.

"CJ is a play because you should get it done but there's just something about Daniel it's like it feels like this might be his moment."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The host picks Daniel da Silva as a big underdog, believing his speed, explosiveness, and power advantage will be too much for Vergara. He notes da Silva is fighting for his job and expects a calculated but reckless style. He predicts a first-round finish, possibly by submission, and likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and under 1.5 rounds.

fight doesn't go to decision, under 1.5 rounds, Daniel da Silva round 1
"I'm gonna go Daniel Da Silva first round I'm gonna call it via club and sub"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

The Guru picks Vergara, heavily criticizing da Silva's fight IQ and defensive mistakes. He believes Vergara is more reliable and can tough out danger. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm gonna go for CJ fagara here... I think he's consistently more trustworthy as a fighter than Daniel de Silva is"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
C.J. Vergara

Zane picks C.J. Vergara because he sees Daniel Lacerda as a self-destructive fighter who explodes and fades quickly, while Vergara is tough, reliable, and consistently puts forward pressure. Vergara may be slow and not athletic, but he is durable and will be in Lacerda's face the whole time. Zane notes that Lacerda has imploded in every UFC fight so far, and Vergara is exactly the kind of grinder who can survive the initial storm and take over.

Odds: Lacerda opened at +220, currently +203; Vergara opened at -216, currently -256. Zane likes Vergara as a reasonable favorite.
"I can't pick the dude who just got his shit wrecked by Victor Altamorano."
TKO (punches and elbows) R1 3:39 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Victor Altamirano 1 22 of 45 48% 27 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Daniel Lacerda 1 58 of 83 69% 94 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Victor Altamirano 22 of 45 48% 14 of 36 3 of 4 5 of 5 16 of 33 2 of 6 4 of 6
Daniel Lacerda 58 of 83 69% 48 of 71 9 of 10 1 of 2 15 of 28 2 of 2 41 of 53
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Angelo picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) over Victor Altamirano. He calls it a razor-thin fight that should be a pick'em. He notes that both are solid strikers with okay wrestling and good BJJ, but believes Lacerda is the better striker and more dangerous fighter. He acknowledges Altamirano's takedown defense isn't great but he sweeps well. Angelo is concerned about Lacerda's poor wrestling but thinks he can still get it done. He admits he doesn't love the pick but is going with the underdog due to Lacerda's danger.

"i'm gonna go the underdog here but if i'm gonna be honest with you i i don't love this pick right out of the gate but i do like daniel da silva to get it done because of how incredibly …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Big Brady sees this as a tricky fight. He notes that Daniel Lacerda (da Silva) is dangerous early with a 100% finish rate but fades badly if the fight extends, as seen in his loss to Jeff Molina. Victor Altamirano has terrible takedown defense but is durable and has cardio. Brady expects Lacerda to look good early but fade, with Altamirano taking over and finishing by submission in the second or third round. He is hesitant because Lacerda could win the first round if he lands early.

Altamirano by submission, round 2-3
"i'm gonna take all toronto to win i'm going to say second round submission but i do think daniel da silva is going to look very good very early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Cody picks Altamirano, emphasizing his Mexican toughness and durability. He notes Lacerda's cardio issues and thinks Altamirano can break him down. He likes the under 12.5 minutes as it covers both fighters' finishing potential.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time)
"i got all to murano"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Daniel Levi picks Victor Altamirano to win a decision. He notes that Daniel Lacerda is hell on wheels early but fades, and in the elevation, Lacerda will gas even faster. Levi believes Altamirano's Mexican heart and long strikes will take over in the second and third rounds. He acknowledges that Lacerda could get an early finish, but if he doesn't, Altamirano wins.

Mentions that Lacerda is a 'killer be killed' type and that Altamirano gives up takedowns too easily. No specific odds or bet size.
"I think Victor altamarada wins that fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Victor Altamirano is the lock of the night play with 4 units at -168. He expects Altamirano to survive early trouble from Lacerda's takedowns and jiu-jitsu, then take over as Lacerda's cardio fades after the first few minutes. Altamirano's striking advantage and ability to create scrambles should lead to a finish in the second or third round. He also took 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165 as a hedge.

Lock of the night play: 4 units on Altamirano moneyline at -168. Also 2 units on under 2.5 rounds at -165. Mentions Lacerda round 1 prop as a possible hedge.
"I actually went four units on victor alto moreno to making my lock of the night play this week at minus 168."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Victor Altamirano

Paul picks Altamirano, citing his durability and cardio advantage. He notes Lacerda's explosive style but poor cardio. He likes the under 12.5 minutes on Prize Picks and thinks Altamirano can weather the early storm and take over.

under 12.5 minutes (fight time) on Prize Picks
"i don't think ulta murano is a great finisher by any stretch of the imagination either but um daniel da silva hasn't really shown 15-minute cardio whatsoever we talked about the under 12 and a half minutes on um on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Victor Altamirano

The Guru predicts Victor Altamirano wins via 29-28 unanimous decision. He describes a sloppy, chaotic fight where Lacerda gives Altamirano problems early with takedowns and punches, but Altamirano lands leg kicks and body kicks. He sees Altamirano wearing Lacerda down in the second and third rounds, beating him up badly in the third.

Wins by unanimous decision 29-28
"victor altamirano is going to win this one via 29-28 unanimous decision"
Submission (kneebar) R1 1:18 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Francisco Figueiredo 0 4 of 6 66% 5 of 7 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:28
Daniel Lacerda 0 5 of 5 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Francisco Figueiredo 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Lacerda 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.

"i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.

first round KO
"i'm gonna take daniel de silva to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.

"i think i mean frankie figure eight will probably there's nothing that uh that daniel lacerda can do to him that he hasn't seen in the gym"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.

"slightly lean with francisco but ... it's a 50 50 fight give me the dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.

Figueiredo by decision +275
"i'm gonna go with another underdog shot here in francisco figuerado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.

"i'm gonna take a shot on it why"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.

Lacerda by submission
"i'm going to trust on a full camp daniel de silva is going to have a great performance against francisco figuerado... gets himself like a submission win some point early on in the fight"
LOSS vs Jeff Molina
TKO (elbows and punches) R2 0:46 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeff Molina 1 47 of 62 75% 106 of 131 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:26
Daniel Lacerda 0 20 of 25 80% 31 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeff Molina 0 30 of 40 75% 66 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:00
Daniel Lacerda 0 18 of 22 81% 29 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:55
2 Jeff Molina 1 17 of 22 77% 40 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Daniel Lacerda 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeff Molina 47 of 62 75% 39 of 54 6 of 6 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 38 of 49
Daniel Lacerda 20 of 25 80% 7 of 11 7 of 8 6 of 6 14 of 16 0 of 1 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeff Molina 30 of 40 75% 26 of 36 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 27 of 34
Daniel Lacerda 18 of 22 81% 7 of 11 7 of 7 4 of 4 12 of 13 0 of 1 6 of 8
2 Jeff Molina 17 of 22 77% 13 of 18 3 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 15
Daniel Lacerda 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Angelo likes Lacerda's forward pressure, kicks, and finishing ability. He notes that all 11 of Lacerda's wins are by stoppage, and while he's making his UFC debut, Angelo believes he's a legit threat. He thinks Molina will invest in body and leg kicks, but Lacerda may not need much time to get the finish. He's not sure about a moneyline bet but likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings.

likes Lacerda at 7500 in DraftKings; considering under 2.5 rounds (less on the fight line)
"i like daniel laserda a lot"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Big Brady picks the underdog Lacerda, citing Molina's 16% takedown defense as a major red flag. He notes Lacerda's 100% finish rate and brown belt in BJJ, predicting an early submission. He acknowledges limited tape on Lacerda but likes what he saw, and believes Molina's takedown defense is a serious liability.

first round submission
"i'm actually gonna take the dog here i'm gonna take a shot on laserda"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

Cody picks Jeff Molina, but prefers to bet him live after the first round. He notes that Lacerda is a powerful finisher who may win the first round, but Molina has proven cardio and durability. Cody believes Molina can weather the early storm and take over as Lacerda fades. He sees Molina as a lower-tier parlay piece.

Bet live after round 1; fight doesn't go to decision
"molina will be lower down yeah i'm gonna i'm gonna attack the the unders and the fight doesn't go to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jeff Molina

Lock picks Molina based on discipline and cardio. He notes Lacerda is wild and has never seen the third round. Molina should weather the early storm and then take over, likely finishing by KO. He likes the under and Molina by KO.

Molina by KO +450, under 2.5 rounds +120
"i like the under two and a half uh again plus 120 i think that's a solid spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not pick a winner but likes the under 2.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision prop. He notes that Lacerda is an aggressive finisher and Molina is durable, leading to a high-paced fight that likely ends inside the distance. Paul is not confident in either fighter to win outright.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"the under in this fight is just staring at me fight doesn't go to the desert doesn't go to decision and under two and a half rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jeff Molina

The MMA Guru picks Jeff Molina, viewing him as a strong prospect. He criticizes Daniel Lacerda's record and believes Molina's cardio, stand-up, and grappling defense will carry him to a unanimous decision win. He notes Molina trains at Glory MMA with James Krauss.

"i'm gonna be going with jeff molina here i trust jeff molina to get this one down"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Angelo picks Figueiredo, noting he is a good fighter in his own right, not just Deiveson's brother. He highlights Figueiredo's wrestling, averaging three takedowns per fight with 75% accuracy and 90% takedown defense. He thinks Figueiredo will get takedowns and grind out a win, despite the odds favoring Lacerda.

"i do like figuerado to get the takedowns and grind out a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

Big Brady picks Daniel Lacerda (da Silva), citing his striking, kicks, volume, and willingness to engage. He criticizes Figueiredo's low volume, poor cardio, and unimpressive performances. He predicts a first-round KO finish, as Lacerda is the more dangerous and active fighter.

first round KO
"i'm gonna take daniel de silva to win i'm gonna take him to win by first round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Cody also sides with Figueiredo, noting Lacerda's over-aggression and poor cardio. He thinks Figueiredo's experience training with his brother Deiveson will help, and that his wrestling and grappling are superior. Cody expects a close fight but believes Figueiredo can edge it out, though his commitment isn't high.

"i think i mean frankie figure eight will probably there's nothing that uh that daniel lacerda can do to him that he hasn't seen in the gym"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Francisco Figueiredo as an underdog. He notes Figueiredo's mistakes in his last fight (dropping back for leg locks) are correctable, while Lacerda is a wild brawler who may gas. Levi sees it as a 50/50 fight and takes the dog, but is not highly confident.

"slightly lean with francisco but ... it's a 50 50 fight give me the dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

The host leans Figueiredo as an underdog, citing Lacerda's reckless style and poor cardio. He notes Lacerda fights at a frantic pace and gasses after the first round, while Figueiredo has decent takedowns and top control. Figueiredo's BJJ and clinch strength can neutralize Lacerda's early burst. He expects Figueiredo to win a decision if he survives the first round.

Figueiredo by decision +275
"i'm gonna go with another underdog shot here in francisco figuerado"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Francisco Figueiredo

Paul picks Francisco Figueiredo as a slight underdog, citing Lacerda's inexperience and tendency to gas. He notes Lacerda is a first-round finisher but fades quickly, as seen against Jeff Molina. Paul thinks Figueiredo's wrestling and clinch strength will be key, and that he can take Lacerda down and control him. He acknowledges Figueiredo's own cardio issues but believes Lacerda's are worse.

"i'm gonna take a shot on it why"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Daniel Lacerda

The Guru picks Daniel Lacerda (referred to as Daniel de Silva), criticizing Francisco Figueiredo's poor decision-making and suspect grappling. He notes that Figueiredo's UFC entry was a robbery and that he has not looked good. The Guru believes Lacerda looked good against Jeff Molina in the early rounds and has good grappling. He predicts Lacerda will get a submission win early in the fight.

Lacerda by submission
"i'm going to trust on a full camp daniel de silva is going to have a great performance against francisco figuerado... gets himself like a submission win some point early on in the fight"