UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira

Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira based on size and skill, but is very hesitant due to Teixeira's lack of experience (8 fights) and first main event. He thinks Teixeira is faster and can beat Lewis to the punch, but acknowledges Lewis has one-punch power and could freeze Teixeira. He will not bet on the fight.

Big Brady acknowledges Derrick Lewis's power but thinks Tallison Teixeira is much more skilled and durable at this stage. He notes Teixeira is a BJJ black belt with great volume and power, and Lewis is hittable and has been finished often. He expects Teixeira to finish Lewis early, picking a first-round knockout.

Connor picks Teixeira based on the 'vibe' that he is a young, athletic heavyweight with basic boxing fundamentals and a powerful frame. He acknowledges that Teixeira is untested, with no fight lasting more than three minutes, and that heavyweight prospects often flame out. He compares the matchup to a coin flip, noting that Derrick Lewis can still beat anyone he doesn't respect, but Teixeira's size and aggression give him a good chance to put Lewis away early.

The host sees this as a close fight but likes the value on Lewis at +220. He believes Lewis will be the first to crack back with power against Teixeira, who hasn't faced such resistance. He expects Lewis to clip Teixeira's chin and knock him out. The pick is based on Lewis's power and the odds being favorable.

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis as an underdog, citing Teixeira's lack of quality opponents and Lewis's experience and power. He notes Lewis has knocked out top heavyweights like Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov, and went five rounds with Jailton Almeida. He expects Lewis to mix in grappling and finish Teixeira by TKO in the second or third round, as Teixeira has been hit by lesser fighters and may struggle with the step up in competition.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Teixeira as the young heavyweight on the rise who has the size, athleticism, and basic technical game to put Derrick Lewis away. He notes that Lewis is technically a shambles with poor footwork and looping strikes, making him vulnerable to a confident, aggressive prospect. However, Zane also acknowledges the uncertainty, stating that Teixeira might just be another flash in the pan like Chris Daukas or Tai Tuivasa.

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to get frustrated with Thompson's range and shoot takedowns, which will be successful due to Thompson's poor takedown defense. He notes Thompson is 42 and was just knocked out, while Bonfim is a finisher with good wrestling and jiu-jitsu. He thinks the odds are justified.

Big Brady believes Gabriel Bonfim is getting Stephen Thompson at the right time. He notes Thompson is 42, has been finished in his last two losses, and can be taken down. Bonfim has power on the feet and is an opportunistic submission artist. He expects Bonfim to take Thompson down and submit him early, picking a first-round submission.

Connor picks Bonfim confidently, stating that Thompson at 42 no longer has the speed or counter-wrestling to survive a blitz. He notes that Bonfim is fast, dynamic, and can change gears quickly, and that once he takes Thompson down, he will likely finish him quickly. Connor acknowledges that Thompson may make Bonfim look silly for a few minutes, but he cannot sustain it.

The host notes that Thompson is 42 and relies on speed and reflexes, while Bonfim is younger and more dangerous. He believes Bonfim can compete with Thompson on the feet and eventually drag the fight to the ground to find a submission within two rounds. The pick is based on Bonfim's youth and grappling advantage.

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim, noting he is a -410 favorite. He argues that Stephen Thompson's counter-striking style allows opponents to implement their game, and Bonfim's grappling and size advantage will be key. He expects Bonfim to shoot takedowns, chain them, and submit Thompson in the first or second round, comparing it to his submission of Chaos Williams. He dismisses Thompson's takedown defense as underrated but believes Bonfim's relentless grappling will prevail.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Bonfim because Thompson has reverted to a gutsy slugger who can't wrestle, and Bonfim's speed and dynamic grappling will overwhelm him. He notes that Bonfim will likely take Thompson down and finish him, as seen in the Chaos Williams fight. Zane calls the matchup 'slightly cruel but necessary' for Thompson's career stage.

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

Angelo is very confident Morgan Charrière wins, calling him the better fighter everywhere except grit and determination. He thinks Charrière's striking, grappling, and wrestling are superior, and Landwehr's pressure won't be enough. However, he says he can't bet on Charrière because French fighters are too unreliable.

Big Brady thinks Morgan Charrière is the more skilled fighter everywhere, with better striking and underrated grappling. He notes Charrière has only been finished once and has good cardio. However, he hates the -260 line and worries about a hometown decision for Landwehr. He picks Charrière by decision.

Connor picks Charrière confidently, noting that Landwehr is a simple brawler who will walk into shots, while Charrière is younger, faster, and more technical. He compares Landwehr's style to Doo Ho Choi's win over Landwehr, where Choi easily countered him. Connor believes Charrière's craft and gas tank should allow him to pick Landwehr apart, though he warns that Charrière has a tendency to wait and see, which could be dangerous against a relentless pressure fighter.

The host acknowledges that Charrière's slow pace striking approach caught up with him against Nathaniel Wood, but believes he will land bigger shots and mix in takedowns against Landwehr. He expects Landwehr to struggle with output and volume, leading to Charrière winning a decision. The pick is based on Charrière's power and ability to control the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Morgan Charrière, expressing concern about Nate Landwehr's recent performance against Doo Ho Choi where he looked slower and was easily hit. He notes Charrière's experience in five-round fights and his competitive showing against Shep Mariscal. He believes Charrière can catch Landwehr on the chin and finish him by TKO in the first round, as Landwehr's chin may be compromised.

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Charrière because Landwehr presents similar problems to Nathaniel Wood and Chepe Mariscal but in a simpler, bludgeoning way. He notes that Landwehr's wins come through sheer durability and brawling, but Charrière has the technical skill to counter him. Zane adds that if Charrière loses, it would be a huge red flag about his potential.

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos but admits he can't bet on him because Tokkos is winless in the UFC. He thinks Tokkos can get the fight to the ground and control Junior Tafa, who has poor takedown defense and looked out of shape in his last fight. However, he notes Tokkos is not reliable enough to bet on as a dog.

Big Brady hates this fight from a betting standpoint. He warns that Junior Tafa's ground game is terrible and if Tuco Tokkos gets him down, it could be bad. However, he cannot rely on Tokkos to wrestle or do anything. He picks Tafa by default, expecting a first-round knockout, but says he would never lay -160 on Tafa.

Connor picks Tokkos hesitantly, noting that Junior Tafa is a one-dimensional slugger who is very upright and easy to navigate. He acknowledges that Tokkos is hurtable and awkward, but believes his wrestling and toughness might be enough to outwork Tafa. Connor admits Tafa could knock Tokkos out, but he leans toward Tokkos due to Tafa's lack of versatility.

The host is not a fan of either fighter but believes Tokkos has the BJJ black belt to take Tafa to the ground and find a submission quickly. He criticizes Tafa's overall skill level, noting he has decent pop but is not a good fighter. Tokkos has underperformed in the UFC but has the grappling chops to win.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, noting he is in shape for his light heavyweight debut and has had some success in the UFC, unlike Tuco Tokkos who has lost three straight and shown no success. He expects Tafa to be 'lean and mean' and score a first-round TKO, as Tokkos has been finished in all his losses.

Zane also picks Tokkos, reasoning that Tafa's move down to light heavyweight won't fix his fundamental issues. He notes that Tokkos is a hard worker who tries to win, and that Tafa's one-note striking might not be enough to put him away. Zane is not confident, calling it a terrible fight.

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

Angelo likes Jake Matthews as an underdog, noting his durability, good chin, and ability to wrestle. He thinks Chidi Njokuani cuts too much weight, may have a fading chin, and can be taken down if you get to his legs. He emphasizes that if Matthews chooses to wrestle, he can win, but his fight IQ is questionable. He also suggests a 'win inside distance' prop as a possible bet.

Big Brady is torn on this fight. He notes Chidi Njokuani is dangerous when things go his way but quits under adversity, especially if taken down. Jake Matthews has a clear path via wrestling, but is hit or miss. If Matthews wrestles, he can finish Chidi. Brady picks Matthews by second-round submission but says he may not bet on it and wants to see weigh-ins.

The host expects Njokuani to continue his winning streak since moving to welterweight. He believes Njokuani will stuff Matthews' takedowns and use his Muay Thai advantage to batter Matthews on the feet, winning a decision. Matthews is on a winning streak but Njokuani is streaking as well.

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, arguing that Jake Matthews is too reliant on his hands and lacks finishing potential compared to Njokuani's rangy striking with kicks and knees. He notes Matthews' inconsistency and tendency to get caught by strikers, citing his fight with Matthew Semelsberger where he was knocked down every round. He expects Njokuani to keep Matthews at range with teeps and low kicks, then catch him in the clinch for a second-round TKO.

Angelo believes Eduarda Moura is younger, faster, and a better grappler than the 41-year-old Lauren Murphy, who hasn't fought in two years. He thinks Murphy's toughness won't be enough against Moura's aggressive grappling and solid takedowns. He hates the -600 odds but thinks Moura wins 95% of the time and is okay to parlay.

Big Brady is disgusted by the -600 line on Eduarda Moura. He notes Moura's poor cardio and low volume, and Lauren Murphy's 70% takedown defense. However, he picks Moura by decision because Murphy is 41, hasn't fought in 2.5 years, and this is her retirement fight. He is not confident in the line.

The host is hesitant about this pick, noting that he doesn't understand why Moura is such a heavy favorite. He acknowledges Moura's grappling strength but also points out that Murphy has a physicality and striking advantage and could make the fight close. Ultimately, he expects Moura to win bits and pieces of the fight and get her hand raised on the scorecards.

The MMA Guru picks Eduarda Moura, citing her better grappling entries and fight IQ in knowing when to shoot for takedowns. He heavily criticizes Lauren Murphy's last performance against Jessica Andrade, where she took a record amount of damage and had no answer. He notes Murphy's long layoff and age, and expects Moura to outwrestle and outstrike her for a 30-27 decision.

Angelo thinks Valter Walker can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where his grappling is a problem for Kennedy Nzechukwu. He notes Kennedy can be gunshy and has lost staring contests, while Walker has transformed his body and has back-to-back heel hook finishes. He plans to bet on Walker, monitoring the line movement to find the peak.

Big Brady sees this as a striker vs wrestler matchup. He expects Valter Walker to take Kennedy down early and win the first round, but questions Walker's cardio and striking. He believes Walker will gas out, allowing Kennedy to take over in the second and third rounds. He picks Kennedy by second-round knockout.

The host expects Nzechukwu to make it 3-0 at heavyweight by stuffing Walker's takedowns and outworking him on the feet. He notes that Nzechukwu is not a title contender but should win a decision. The pick is based on Nzechukwu's ability to keep the fight standing and outpoint Walker.

The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing Valter Walker's poor debut against Lucas Brzeski where he looked lost on the feet and had sloppy takedown entries. He notes Nzechukwu's ability to stuff takedowns, referencing his fight with Paul Craig where he shut down 16 attempts. He expects Nzechukwu to survive a first round of danger, then piece up Walker on the feet for a second or third round TKO.

Angelo dismisses Mike Davis's last performance as an anomaly due to paint fumes and injuries, and focuses on his overall body of work. He sees Davis as faster, more athletic, and well-rounded, expecting him to blow through Mitch Ramirez. He notes Ramirez is a decent grappler but has had tough matchups, and this should be another he can't win.

Big Brady is hesitant despite Mike Davis being a massive favorite. He expresses concern about Davis's many excuses after his last fight and his tendency to pull guard early. However, he acknowledges Davis is much better everywhere than Mitch Ramirez. He picks Davis to win by dominant decision but says he will avoid betting on this fight.

The host believes Davis will remind everyone of his quality after a recent fumble against Ferris ZM. He expects Davis to put together a solid body of work and finish Ramirez in the second round. Davis is a prohibitive favorite at -900, reflecting strong confidence.

The MMA Guru confidently picks Mike Davis, calling it a 'no-brainer' given Davis is a -1000 favorite. He notes Mitch Ramirez starts strong but visibly slows down as lactic acid builds, citing his losses to Carlos Prates and Thiago Moises. He expects Davis to survive early exchanges and take over as the fight progresses, though he sees no betting value at the current odds.

Angelo believes Fatima Kline will get the fight to the ground and avoid Martinez's power strikes. He notes Kline's grappling is dangerous and she has good takedowns, while Martinez's takedown defense is decent but her back is vulnerable. He is confident Kline wins but refuses to bet at -400 odds, calling it insane.

Big Brady is extremely confident in Fatima Kline, calling her one of the best prospects in WMMA. He highlights her striking, grappling background, and dominant ground and pound. He notes that Melissa Martinez was outgrappled by Elise Reed, the worst grappler in the division, and expects Kline to get a takedown and finish. He picks Kline by second-round submission.

The host expects Kline to dominate Martinez using a grapple-heavy approach and finish her within two and a half rounds. Kline is a heavy favorite at -400, indicating strong confidence in her victory. The host emphasizes her grappling advantage as the key to the finish.

The MMA Guru picks Fatima Kline, citing her physicality and size advantage (5'6" vs 5'2"). He notes she is a -1200 favorite and expects her to use grappling to secure a submission in the early rounds, referencing her recent first-round submission win over Victoria Dudakova. He believes Melissa Martinez's win over Alice Ardelean was competitive and that Kline will be too physical.