vs
+250 -305
UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira Next Fight
Age 40
Height 5' 11"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 38
Height 5' 10"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Max Griffin
3.76 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.7 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.28 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Chris Curtis
5.52 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
5.75 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Max Griffin
Moneyline
DraftKings +250
Chris Curtis
Moneyline
BetMGM -305
Max Griffin - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 40 of 89 44% 43 of 94 4 of 9 44% 0 0 1:03
Victor Valenzuela 0 53 of 117 45% 53 of 117 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Victor Valenzuela 0 12 of 29 41% 12 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 10 of 27 37% 10 of 27 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:19
Victor Valenzuela 0 12 of 28 42% 12 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
3 Max Griffin 0 20 of 38 52% 22 of 42 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:23
Victor Valenzuela 0 29 of 60 48% 29 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 40 of 89 44% 36 of 83 1 of 2 3 of 4 37 of 84 3 of 4 0 of 1
Victor Valenzuela 53 of 117 45% 33 of 91 15 of 19 5 of 7 50 of 111 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 10 of 24 41% 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 1
Victor Valenzuela 12 of 29 41% 5 of 19 5 of 6 2 of 4 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 10 of 27 37% 7 of 22 0 of 1 3 of 4 8 of 24 2 of 3 0 of 0
Victor Valenzuela 12 of 28 42% 6 of 20 4 of 6 2 of 2 12 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 20 of 38 52% 19 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Victor Valenzuela 29 of 60 48% 22 of 52 6 of 7 1 of 1 26 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Victor Valenzuela
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Valenzuela (-140); Griffin (+115)

Round 1
Back against the wall having lost three of four, 40-year-old Griffin (20-12, 8-10 UFC) would like to demonstrate he has more left to offer and plans on inflicting “Pain” on his debuting opponent. Hardly a spring chicken at the age of 32, this Chilean welterweight Valenzuela (13-4, 0-0 UFC) was signed to the promotion despite suffering a knockout loss on last year’s Contender Series. Only one man will move on with a win tonight, barring something unusual, and referee Chris Tognoni will be standing by. The fighters do not touch gloves before handling their business.
Griffin walks the newcomer down right out of the gate, no-selling a high kick as he tries to get in range. Valenzuela is keeping to a wide kickboxing distance, breaking it only to try to crash in with punches. Griffin dodges them and watches a few more fly past him, with a lot of swinging and missing early on. Valenzuela rushes forward to throw hands, but all he connects with is a body kick. Griffin marches him down and busts him in the face with a right hand, only to get staggered back with a counter right when hanging around a little too long in the pocket. Both men offer out jabs, and Griffin just misses a short left hook when Valenzuela ducks forward.
It is a stalemate for a time, until Valenzuela dives after a double-leg takedown entry. Griffin whiffs on an uppercut but tosses the newcomer to the side. Valenzuela cannot find his target with a spin kick, taking a jab off the forehead and evading the subsequent effort. Griffin sneaks in a right hand around Valenzuela’s jab, and he skirts away when Valenzuela advances. Valenzuela kicks the inside thigh, and Griffin jabs him back. Valenzuela puts two punches on the jaw and lands a body kick, and his right hook backs Griffin off. Griffin takes a few heavy blows and shoots for a counter takedown, scoring it for a moment. Valenzuela wall-walks to get back upright, with Griffin kneeing him once in the clinch before they split. The slow round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela

Round 2
Valenzuela wades out of his corner looking for kicks, reaching the midsection a few times with them. Griffin dances away from the worst of what comes his way, but it means that Valenzuela is landing and he is not. Griffin tries to sweep the leg with a kick all the way down at the ankle, and Valenzuela stops and frowns at him. “Pain” looks for a right hand when Valenzuela comes after him, missing and nearly falling over. Griffin opens up with a huge right hand, knocking Valenzuela to the floor where he can loop around on the mat to hunt for a choke. Valenzuela simply sits up to break out of it.
Little happens after that exciting moment for at least a minute, with tit-for-tat engagement until Valenzuela open up with a wheel kick. Griffin licks his chops and takes Valenzuela down easily, landing a few strikes when landing on top. Valenzuela explodes to get out of the precarious position, turning the tables on the UFC veteran by shooting in for a double. Griffin turns to his side, and the fighters are warned for fence grabs. Valenzuela pulls back rather than trying to keep after the takedown, and he jacks Griffin in the jaw with a few punches. Griffin fires back, but Valenzuela is beating him largely to the punch. Griffin connects with a heavy right at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 3
Valenzuela strikes first with a left hook, and he staggers Griffin with a right hand to follow. Backing Griffin to the fence, he opens up with a few more punches until Griffin decides he will channel his inner football player by straight-up tackling Valenzuela to the floor. Valenzuela is quick to turn to his knees to stand, and Griffin grabs hold of the back of his head and knees him in the dome. When upright again, Valenzuela dings Griffin with an overhand right. Griffin swings back with a vengeance, opening a cut on the bridge of the newcomer’s nose. He catches Valenzuela standing still with a left hook, and slides away when two huge hooks are aimed his way. Griffin engages, gets caught with a right hand and tries to grapple. Valenzuela tosses him aside, but when he lands his right hand flush, he seems to hurt Griffin every time. Griffin pushes out a vertical elbow as he tries to get Valenzuela off of him, lobbing a body kick as well when circling out. Valenzuela stays after him, whether with jabs or power punches, and he rips open a cut on the inner left eyebrow of a very angry-looking Griffin.
Griffin loads up and smashes his fist into Valenzuela’s mouth, causing blood to flow as the two men clearly want to record a big knockout. Griffin tries to tackle again, but he settles for shoving Valenzuela back. Valenzuela races after him, keeping “Pain” on the back foot and causing him pain with his heavy swings. Griffin is flagging but still very much in the fight, his fists careening off the raised guard of his adversary. Valenzuela bullies him and rips a right hand upstairs and a left kick to the body, forcing another grimace from the visage of his opponent. Griffin ducks under a left hand to shoot in for a double, and Valenzuela puts his hand on Griffin’s throat and turns him around in a sheer power move, blood trickling down the newcomer’s face. Valenzuela has taken big shots and is leaking from multiple wounds around his face, his complexion quickly transforming to that of his red shorts, and he wants to stand and bang. He motions to Griffin that it is time to duke it out, and Griffin leaps at him with a right hand. Valenzuela has to play the matador rather than the slugger in the final exchanges, with the horn punctuating a close, bloody battle.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela (29-28 Valenzuela)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela (29-28 Valenzuela)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Valenzuela (29-28 Valenzuela)

The Official Result
Victor Valenzuela def. Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Angelo leans on Max Griffin despite his age, citing Griffin's experience and toughness. He notes that Victor Valenzuela has not fought anyone good and was dropped three times in his last Apex fight. Angelo believes Griffin will fire back and potentially work in a takedown, though he admits uncertainty about Valenzuela's takedown defense. He rates his confidence at 51% for Griffin, calling it a 'nice little dog' but says he probably won't bet on it.

Angelo says he's probably not going to spend any money on this pick.
"I am going to lean on a 40-year-old Max Griffin to get the win. I think the experience will matter."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Max Griffin

Connor picks Griffin because he believes Griffin hasn't fallen off and can out-slick Valenzuela. He notes that Griffin has a history of beating non-elite fighters and that Valenzuela is a one-note brawler. Connor also points out that Griffin can use movement, clinch, and takedowns to frustrate Valenzuela, similar to his game plan against Mike Perry.

Valenzuela opened at -110, now -145; Griffin opened at -110, now +125. Connor sees value in Griffin as an underdog.
"i'm gonna take max griffin i i'm sadness hedging i want max to win this i don't really care to be honest i'm just i think max griffin uh as you said like he hasn't really he doesn't really look …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 19, 2026 (6 days before fight)

James states he has not done tape on Valenzuela due to the fight being scheduled recently, so he cannot give a prediction.

"I haven't done tape on Valenuela. I have to be honest with you. So I can't give you a prediction on that one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 21, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Victor Valenzuela

Valenzuela is a powerful pocket striker with good finishing ability, catching Griffin at the right time as Griffin is on a two-fight losing streak and showing his age. Griffin may start fast but will slow down, allowing Valenzuela to walk him down and land big shots. Expect a knockout finish in round two or three.

Valenzuela by KO round 2 or 3
"I expect Valenuela to start landing big shots. And I think that could lead to him really roughing Griffin up and eventually finding that finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Victor Valenzuela

Zane picks Valenzuela because he thinks Griffin is getting old and his fights against similar 'blockhead' opponents have been razor-thin. He notes that Valenzuela is an aggressive finisher in his prime, while Griffin's game is built on weird martial arts and he tends to wander away from good ideas. Zane also points out that Valenzuela's only recent loss was to a top prospect, Michael Oliveira.

Valenzuela opened at -110, now -145; Griffin opened at -110, now +125.
"i'm gonna take valenzuela man i'm gonna take max griffin i i'm sadness hedging i want max to win this i don't really care to be honest i'm just i think max griffin uh as you said like he hasn't …"
LOSS vs Chris Curtis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 59 of 178 33% 63 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Chris Curtis 0 64 of 155 41% 71 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Chris Curtis 0 8 of 32 25% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 17 of 58 29% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 52 40% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Max Griffin 0 21 of 72 29% 22 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 35 of 71 49% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 59 of 178 33% 38 of 147 14 of 21 7 of 10 58 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 64 of 155 41% 44 of 132 18 of 21 2 of 2 61 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 21 of 48 43% 14 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 8 of 32 25% 5 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 17 of 58 29% 12 of 51 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 52 40% 15 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 21 of 72 29% 12 of 58 8 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 35 of 71 49% 24 of 57 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)

Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."
LOSS vs Michael Chiesa
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:56 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Chiesa 0 13 of 39 33% 54 of 87 2 of 8 25% 1 0 3:48
Max Griffin 0 10 of 34 29% 18 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Chiesa 0 6 of 17 35% 12 of 25 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:35
Max Griffin 0 3 of 15 20% 5 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Chiesa 0 5 of 16 31% 38 of 54 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Max Griffin 0 5 of 11 45% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
3 Michael Chiesa 0 2 of 6 33% 4 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Max Griffin 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Chiesa 13 of 39 33% 11 of 33 2 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 29 4 of 10 0 of 0
Max Griffin 10 of 34 29% 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Chiesa 6 of 17 35% 4 of 13 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0
Max Griffin 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Michael Chiesa 5 of 16 31% 5 of 14 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 11 2 of 5 0 of 0
Max Griffin 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michael Chiesa 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Chiesa vs. Max Griffin
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Griffin (-125), Chiesa (+105)

Round 1
It’s a quintessential grappler vs. striker matchup to hold serve in the welterweight division, as two aging vets look to show the matchmakers they still have plenty to offer even as losses have piled up of late. Birthday boy Chiesa (17-7, 12-7 UFC) snapped a career-long skid by tapping Tony Ferguson in August, while Griffin (20-10, 8-8 UFC) has alternated wins and losses in his last five. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the Octagon for the next three rounds or fewer, and he kicks the fight off as the 170ers opt not to bump fists. Chiesa strafes around the cage, not letting himself slow down so that Griffin can cut him off. Griffin walks him down, but he is unable to corner him early. Chiesa keeps his front hand open to engage with grappling instead of throwing it, and he hand-fights Griffin’s lead hand in the other stance. Chiesa punches his way into a takedown attempt, clipping Griffin with a left before dragging him to a knee. Griffin leans himself against the cage, and “Maverick” glides behind him. Chiesa slithers a hook in to tangle Griffin up, and Griffin stands up. Chiesa gets the other hook in from behind and he wraps his legs together to hang on as a mean-spirited backpack. Griffin wriggles his foe off of him and separates, resetting at striking range. Chiesa bounces and keeps moving, whipping a high kick that slaps off the raised guard. Griffin catches Chiesa in the midst of an exchange, and Chiesa’s counter is so wild he nearly swings himself down to the ground. Griffin lets him recover so he can stick him with a right hand, and Chiesa’s reaction is uncomfortable as he is momentarily stunned. Griffin loads up on power strikes, drawing some swelling beneath Chiesa’s left eye. Chiesa connects with a big left, takes a takedown and drives a knee into the chest. Griffin shakes it off and tags his foe with a right hand, and Chiesa nods at the blow and shoots for a takedown. Griffin hits the ground and scrambles wildly to explode to his feet. Chiesa wrenches him back down to the mat, and he wraps a body triangle around the waist and smacks Griffin in the back and sides of the head until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa

Round 2
Chiesa starts off the round fresh as a daisy, springing back and forth and picking his shots from the outside. Griffin’s counters hit nothing but air, and Chiesa punches his way into a takedown that is stonewalled. Griffin darts in with a right hand, and on the way out, Chiesa lands his own punch. Griffin whiffs when Chiesa ducks down on a takedown, and two more failed shots from Chiesa lead to a tie-up against the fence. Griffin wants nothing to do with this, exploding out of the clinch so he can continue stalking Chiesa down. Griffin comes up short on power strikes, with Chiesa escaping out the back door and surprising “Pain” with a head kick. Griffin ties him up and pushes the TUF champ against the wall. Griffin grinds his foe against the fencing, getting a knee in as he imposes his weight. Goddard asks for more activity, and Chiesa is the one who answers, changing levels for a takedown shot. Before it goes anywhere, Griffin twists him around, and he eventually works his way out. Chiesa ducks a left hand to try to take the fight down, and he surprises the older fighter with a sudden flurry of uppercuts and short punches that get Griffin’s attention. Chiesa’s momentum drives him into a clinch, and he wraps his left leg around Griffin’s so he can try to wrench him down. Chiesa partially takes the back while the two remain standing, and he works on Griffin with stay-busy strikes until Griffin turns around. The round ends with a Chiesa knee to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Chiesa

Round 3
Griffin comes out of his corner ready to throw hands, and he marches Chiesa down and tries to cut him off. Chiesa keeps moving, constantly going from side to side. As he swipes out a left hand, he shrugs after landing it. Griffin catches him with a right hand, and Chiesa retaliates and pursues a takedown. Griffin stonewalls him and pushes him aside, and he eats a right hand on the way out. As Griffin loads up, Chiesa trips him out with a single-leg takedown and takes his back. One hook in leads to two, and Chiesa hangs onto the back of “Pain” and fishes for an opening. Chiesa wraps up the rear-naked choke, and Griffin pushes off the fence to get just enough space in the grip to keep himself in the fight.
Chiesa refastens his choke and is primarily using his right arm to get it done, and as Griffin turns to his stomach, he enters the Danger Zone. Chiesa wrenches on the rear-naked choke with his other arm with sheer power and determination, and Griffin has no choice but to tap out before going out.
As Chiesa releases the sub, he walks off to celebrate. His legion of fans in the building start singing him “Happy Birthday,” and he dedicates his victory to recently deceased UFC staff member Derek Thompson.

The Official Result
Michael Chiesa def. Max Griffin R3 1:56 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Angelo picks Michael Chiesa as an underdog, believing Chiesa can use his grappling to neutralize Max Griffin's power. He notes Chiesa's improved fight IQ from coaching and analysis work. However, he acknowledges the fight is tricky and expects it to go the distance. He suggests possibly betting the spread (Chiesa +3.5) when props drop.

Maybe bet the spread (Chiesa +3.5), fight goes a little bit
"I'm going to pick Michael Kessa to win this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Cody picks Chiesa, citing his wrestling and submission threat. He notes Griffin's takedown defense issues and close decision losses. He thinks Chiesa can grind out a win, though he acknowledges Chiesa's inconsistency.

"I'll side with Chiesa... it's Chiesa for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Connor picks Chiesa, arguing that Griffin lacks a defined game plan and often wanders out of fights. He notes that Chiesa is aggressive with his reach and clinch work, and that Griffin is not a submission threat, which is important because Chiesa has been submitted in most of his losses. Connor believes that if Chiesa pressures and forces clinches, Griffin will not have an answer.

"I think i'm gonna take michael kiesa."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Daniel picks Chiesa as an underdog, citing Griffin's recent decline and takedown defense issues. He believes Chiesa's grappling and strength will be decisive once he gets the fight to the mat. He notes Griffin's lack of submission threat.

"Give me a KSA for the upset, actually."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Griffin

This is a fight between two flaky fighters, but I lean with Griffin's activity as of late. His ability to keep the fight standing and out-strike Chiesa on the feet will allow him to win on the scorecards.

"I do have to to lean with Griffin's activity as of late as I do think his ability to keep this fight standing and badrick K on the feet will allow him to win this fight on the scor cards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

Paul picks Chiesa, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Griffin's struggles with grapplers. He notes Griffin's age and lack of finishing ability. He thinks Chiesa can control the fight and win a decision or submission.

"I like Michael Chiesa... he's going to be part of the PRP."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Chiesa

The MMA Guru picks Michael Chiesa, though he calls it tricky. He believes Chiesa's grappling will be the difference, as Griffin has historically struggled with grapplers (citing Colby Covington fight). He thinks Griffin lacks the dynamic striking to finish Chiesa early, and trusts Chiesa to grind out a 29-28 decision.

"I'm gonna go with Michael ker I'm gonna go with Michael ker getting this one done I think his grappling is going to be the difference"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Max Griffin

Zane picks Griffin, noting that Griffin is a good athlete who has shown he can mimic game plans, as he did against Mike Perry. He points out that Chiesa has been submitted in almost every loss, and while Griffin is not a submission specialist, he might catch Chiesa in a guillotine. Zane also mentions that Griffin has been competitive with tough opponents and that Chiesa's recent losses have been to high-level grapplers.

"I think i'll take max griffin."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 26 of 53 49% 36 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Jeremiah Wells 0 32 of 86 37% 43 of 97 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 6 of 18 33% 13 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Jeremiah Wells 0 7 of 26 26% 7 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
2 Max Griffin 0 10 of 16 62% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Jeremiah Wells 0 17 of 36 47% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Max Griffin 0 10 of 19 52% 12 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Jeremiah Wells 0 8 of 24 33% 19 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 26 of 53 49% 21 of 48 4 of 4 1 of 1 24 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jeremiah Wells 32 of 86 37% 27 of 76 5 of 7 0 of 3 32 of 85 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 6 of 18 33% 5 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jeremiah Wells 7 of 26 26% 7 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 1 7 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 10 of 16 62% 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jeremiah Wells 17 of 36 47% 13 of 30 4 of 5 0 of 1 17 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 1 of 1 1 of 1 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jeremiah Wells 8 of 24 33% 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 1 8 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Jeremiah Wells
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Wells (-170), Griffin (+142)

Round 1
Action will be on display as these two offense-first welterweights enter the cage. This is a crucial contest for the 38-year-old Griffin (19-11, 7-8 UFC), who could get back to .500 with a win. All he has to do is get past the fast and frenetic Wells (12-3-1, 4-1 UFC), who is only one year his junior. These elder statesmen at 170 pounds will be officiated by referee Chris Tognoni, and they have no interest in touching them up as Wells instead spins with a heel kick to the midsection unexpectedly. Griffin deftly avoids it and he proceeds to stalk Wells down, chasing him around the cage for about 30 seconds without throwing anything. Wells spins with a wheel kick that glances off the side of Griffin’s head, and he keeps moving by spinning with an elbow that dings Griffin again. Griffin backs off instead of trying to counter, and Wells feints and stomps the floor with loud screams. Griffin acknowledges him with a sharp jab in response, but it is one-and-done as he continues to follow Wells around. Wells gets a jab back with his own, and Griffin surges ahead with a trio of punches. Wells dips back, and Griffin gives chase with a few more heavy shots until Wells retreats out of range. The two continue to measure one another for long stretches of inactivity, perhaps a little too respectful of one another’s power. Wells connects with a left hand, and he blitzes forward with another left hook and enough forward momentum that allows him to tackle Griffin to the canvas. Griffin fights back to his feet by wall-walking, and Wells presses on him with his full body weight. Wells ropes out several haymakers that sting Griffin, but Griffin manages to catches his opponent with a short right hand. Wells keeps a decent poker face despite being stung, and Griffin scores another right that makes Wells think twice about exchanging. Griffin’s own advancing gets him into range, and he secures a sudden takedown that puts Wells on his back for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 2
The welterweights are tentative to engage to start off the round, both leading with single jabs but otherwise operating with plenty of fakes and feints but few actual committed strikes. Griffin keeps Wells on his back foot, and he holds his guard high to block a huge overhand right from Wells. Griffin is out of range when a subsequent wrecking ball of a left hook comes his way, and he does not bite when Wells fakes a spin. Wells attempts a front kick that grazes off the body, and he swats out a left hand that is parried. Griffin connects with a right hand, and Wells welcomes the exchange and hurls himself forward into the melee. Both men crack one another with violent blows, and Griffin’s chin holds together as he is pressed towards the fencing. After jockeying for position, the two split up and they return to kickboxing range. Wells, his nose bleeding, pokes out a jab and then swings a left hook that would blow Tognoni’s hair back if he had any. Wells connects with a body kick, and he spins with a kick to the same target as Griffin grimaces. Griffin eats a jumping kick to the body and a right hand on the chin, but he still manages to reply with a short right hand that gives Wells brief pause. Wells fires off a side kick that careens off the guard, and he doubles up on a jab as well. Wells reaches in with a left, but Griffin catches him with a right that makes Wells back off. Griffin comes at him to throw hands, and Wells practically sprints towards him so he can tie Griffin up again. This clinch position ends the round, and Griffin takes him down after the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Wells
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Wells

Round 3
Wells leads the dance with a spinning kick to the ribs, and Griffin grunts when it lands flush. Wells throws a sloppy right hand, and Griffin sees it coming and replies with a short right that Wells does not like. After another agonizing stretch of feinting, Wells lashes out with two hooks, and even though Griffin blocks it, they hurt. Griffin replies with a single kick, and they reset and start jabbing. Griffin times another big punch from Wells and beats him to the punch with a short right, but Wells continues throwing bombs and keeps Griffin cautious. Wells lobs haymakers as they soar past Griffin, and Griffin gets one shot in and makes Wells shake it off. The welterweights whiff on concussive blows, and Griffin dances out of the way when Wells jumps with a stomp kick aimed at his knee. Both men miss the mark with looping strikes, just out of range from one another. Wells spins with a wheel kick, and the crook of his knee wraps around the back of Griffin’s head as Griffin times an explosion forward in pursuit of a takedown. The resulting collision pushes Wells back against the fence, and he holds him there without doing much else. Wells slaps Griffin a few times on the ear, and the strange fight comes to a conclusion when the final bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Wells)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Wells)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Wells)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Jeremiah Wells via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Angelo highlights Jeremiah Wells' well-rounded game, with explosive hands and high-level BJJ, and notes that Wells transitions effortlessly to grappling. He thinks Max Griffin's punches lose power later in fights, and that Wells will get takedowns and grind out a win. He acknowledges Griffin's toughness but believes Wells will be too much, though he will be biting his nails.

"Jeremiah wells should win this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin as an underdog. He notes that Griffin is bigger, more experienced, has better technical striking and volume, and has good takedown defense. He acknowledges Wells' power and physicality but believes Griffin can win as long as he avoids a big shot.

"I am going to go Max Griffin um a lot of men a lot of reasons to like this guy as a dog here I'm going to take him to win as a dog"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody picks Griffin as a dog, noting Wells has fought low-level competition and has cardio issues. Griffin has fought better guys and has sneaky power, with knockdowns in recent fights. Cody thinks Wells will tire in later rounds, and Griffin's wrestling and durability will be key. He sees clear value on Griffin at plus money.

"this is a dog worthy shot"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

Wells is very dangerous early with power and top pressure. Griffin is 38 and has faltered against tougher opponents. Wells should be able to secure an early knockout or grind out a decision. The odds are a bit close, but Wells' power and tenacity should be the difference. Griffin's experience may not be enough to stay away from Wells' danger.

"I think he's going to falter under the power of Jeremiah Wells here whether that's an early knockout which is ultimately going to be my prediction or a grind out over 15 minutes I just don't know if Griffin has …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Paul also picks Griffin, echoing Cody's points. He notes Wells' opponents have a combined 0-7 record after fighting him, indicating he is being protected. Griffin is a step up in competition and has the skills to win. Paul thinks Griffin's power and experience will be too much for Wells.

"take the dog take the dog take the dog and the dog or pass type of situation"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jeremiah Wells

The MMA Guru picks Jeremiah Wells because he believes Wells can out-grapple Max Griffin, especially in the first two rounds. He notes that Griffin has shown a tendency to break when put in a losing position. He also thinks Wells has more power on the feet, even if his standup is slightly worse. He does not see Griffin having the submission ability to catch Wells like Carlston Harris did.

"I'm going to go Jeremiah wells plus I think he's got way more power on the feet even if he's a little bit worse in a standup."
LOSS vs Michael Morales
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Morales 0 36 of 102 35% 39 of 105 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:10
Max Griffin 0 72 of 164 43% 73 of 165 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Morales 0 11 of 26 42% 13 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:14
Max Griffin 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Michael Morales 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Max Griffin 0 31 of 70 44% 31 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Michael Morales 0 10 of 38 26% 11 of 39 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:51
Max Griffin 0 26 of 54 48% 27 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Morales 36 of 102 35% 28 of 93 4 of 4 4 of 5 35 of 99 1 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 72 of 164 43% 59 of 145 5 of 8 8 of 11 68 of 159 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Morales 11 of 26 42% 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 3 11 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0
Max Griffin 15 of 40 37% 9 of 31 3 of 4 3 of 5 13 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Morales 15 of 38 39% 10 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 14 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Max Griffin 31 of 70 44% 30 of 67 1 of 2 0 of 1 29 of 67 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Michael Morales 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Griffin 26 of 54 48% 20 of 47 1 of 2 5 of 5 26 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Michael Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-240), Griffin (+200)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage in the “featured fight of the night” slot, as Griffin (19-9, 7-7 UFC) has clawed his way back towards a .500 record courtesy of four wins in his last five appearances. While the last 14 fights for Griffin have been 50/50, the same cannot be said about opponent Morales (14-0, 2-0 UFC), who is a perfect 14 up and none down. The two are 14 years apart, and referee Kerry Hatley stands guard for the battle of 14s. There is no glove touch, and Griffin is active early on moving from side to side and staying on the outside. “Pain” causes some early pain with low kicks, and he is met with sharp jabs from the unbeaten youngster. Morales reaches his foe with a looping one-two, and he backs off when Griffin kicks the inside of his calf. They both snap out jabs, but Morales’ is faster and prods the nose. Griffin swings and misses, with Morales dancing out of the way of the punches but not the follow-up leg kick. Griffin charges with a stream of punches, and Morales bends over to avoid them and leaps at his man with a jump knee. There is a reset period, and Morales then attacks again with a flying knee that claps off the cup of the American. Griffin waves Hatley off, and he surges into action with a takedown attempt. Morales turns him around and separates, but Griffin is on him and his left hand has developed some swelling on Morales’ right eye. Griffin presses his weight on his opponent, and he gets kneed in the face by the younger man. Morales shakes Griffin off to get away, and he leaps at his opponent with a Superman punch. Morales lands and comes out swinging, and Griffin backs him into the fence with a clubbing right hand. Morales jumps with another kick, and his foot once more bounces into Griffin’s cup. Hatley does not recognize it, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Morales claims the center of the cage and flashes out his jab. Griffin lunges in with a long left hand, and he backs away when Morales jumps at him with a kick. Morales tags Griffin with three punches, and Griffin shakes it out and gets staggered by a right hand. Morales charges into action, throwing so hard he almost falls over, and he rocks Griffin with another overhand right. Griffin sits down on a counter right, but Morales walks through it and is now in stalking mode. Griffin sticks him with a right but eats one right back, and his chin is durable and his counters effective enough to slow Morales down for a moment. Griffin gathers his thoughts and absorbs a jab, and he skirts out of the way when Morales tries to bust him in the chops. Morales flicks out a few jabs to open a cut under Griffin’s left eye, and he stays composed and walks through a body kick to aim a right over the top. Morales lands two more jabs, and Griffin looks for an overhand right and backs away when Morales charges. Griffin lets loose with a leg kick, and he ducks a huge right hand that blows past his hair. Morales swings so hard that Griffin is able to duck it, change levels and go for a takedown. Morales shuts down the attempt and circles away, thanks in part to a kimura threat of his own. Morales pops his foe again with a few jabs, and he resets with a minute left in the round. Griffin blitzes but misses, and Morales nods at him and makes him backpedal. Morales tags Griffin with a Superman punch, and as he pours it on, a knee from up close bumps into Griffin’s cup and forces a 30-second pause. Griffin gets jabbed when they restart, and he throws a simultaneous head kick that is easily blocked. Morales jabs into a high kick, and he raises his arm in the air with a few seconds left in the round to lure Griffin into a slugfest. Morales gets off a few more shots before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
Five minutes remain, and it could be tied up going into this last round. They proceed to throw big hands, and Morales eats a left hook and nods. Morales pushes out a jab, and he slides away when Griffin throws a haymaker. Griffin misses with a head kick and attacks a takedown, and he gets nailed with a flying knee. Griffin bounces off the fence and the two gets back to striking range. Griffin tries to close in on his opponent, and he crashes right into Morales’ hip and bounces off the fence. Griffin manages to grab Morales from behind while the Ecuadorian leans against the cage, and he turns around and goes after a double. Lifting the unbeaten fighter off the ground, he dumps Morales down for a second. Morales hits a quick switch to move around and grab hold of Griffin’s back, before they split up. Morales jabs when he gets back to a safe berth, and Griffin responds with an overhand right. Griffin dings Morales with a left and presses him into the clinch, and there is no takedown to be found. Morales stands him up with a few punches after they break, and he jumps with a knee that crashes right into Griffin’s head. Griffin gets kicked low a few times to shake up his balance, and he tries to time a jab with a right hook. Morales leans back to dodge a sweeping left hook, and he takes a deep breath with a minute left. Morales ushers Griffin aside when Griffin charges recklessly, and he tries another jump knee that misses the mark. Griffin walks his foe down, and he chambers a big right hand and connects with it. The impact leads to a clinch, and he gets thrown to the mat by the unbeaten fighter for emphasis. Morales tries to get off some ground-and-pound, but the fight comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales (29-28 Morales)

The Official Result
Michael Morales def. Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Angelo picks Michael Morales, highlighting his credentials as a freestyle wrestling and Muay Thai national champion. He notes Morales's footwork, forward pressure, and clean takedowns. He believes Morales's offensive wrestling will be the difference, though Max Griffin is a live underdog. He mentions the moneyline is already juiced and will wait for props.

waiting for props
"I do think Morales is going to get this done I think the offensive wrestling is going to be the difference here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Big Brady picks Michael Morales to win by decision. He is high on Morales but cautions against the -240 line, noting Max Griffin is a tough veteran who has only been finished once. He thinks the fight will be close and could go to decision, where the UFC's preference for the undefeated prospect may favor Morales. He also notes Morales has multiple paths to win, including a finish or a close decision.

"give me Michael Morales to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Cody likes Morales' youth, power, and wrestling background. He notes Morales' wins over Trevin Giles and Adam Fugit show finishing ability. He acknowledges Griffin is a seasoned veteran but points out Griffin's low volume and lack of recent finishes. Cody thinks Morales' power and pressure will be too much, but he will watch the live market in case Griffin teaches him a lesson.

"I lean Morales but minus 250 like it's kind of the price tag that indicates he's going to knock him out and finish them pretty easily"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Daniel leans Morales due to his athleticism, youth, and potential improvements after a year off, but calls it a 'dog or pass' at -240. He acknowledges Griffin's experience, durability, and knockdown power, and notes Morales' defensive flaws (gets hit clean). He compares the situation to Jamahal Hill's loss to Paul Craig, suggesting a setback wouldn't ruin Morales' future. He is not confident enough to bet, as Griffin's plus-205 price is tempting.

dog or pass situation; Morales minus 240, Griffin plus 205
"I'm gonna lean towards the favorite but it's like clearly dog or pass I think"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

James briefly mentions this fight in response to a chat question, stating he sees Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out. He does not elaborate further, but the statement is clear and confident.

"I just see Michael Morales knocking Max Griffin out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Michael Morales

Paul thinks the market is about right. He notes Griffin was taken down three times by Tim Means and that Morales can mix in wrestling. He sees Morales as a high-potential prospect and is not willing to bet against him against an aging Griffin. Paul believes Morales will win, possibly by using his wrestling.

"Morales will be the pick for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Michael Morales

The Guru picks Michael Morales, despite some sloppy moments in his last fight against Adam Fugitt. He notes Morales's youth (24), reach advantage, and consistency, while Max Griffin is hit-or-miss and older. He believes Morales's talent is above Griffin's level and predicts a win, possibly a finish.

"I am gonna have to go with Michael Morales here on talent I think he's way above Max Griffin"
WIN vs Tim Means
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 47 of 115 40% 143 of 215 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:27
Tim Means 1 42 of 78 53% 56 of 96 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 17 of 49 34% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Tim Means 1 25 of 42 59% 26 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Max Griffin 0 20 of 53 37% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tim Means 0 13 of 29 44% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Max Griffin 0 10 of 13 76% 74 of 79 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:01
Tim Means 0 4 of 7 57% 16 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 47 of 115 40% 18 of 64 18 of 36 11 of 15 37 of 103 7 of 9 3 of 3
Tim Means 42 of 78 53% 25 of 52 9 of 15 8 of 11 35 of 66 1 of 1 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 17 of 49 34% 8 of 27 3 of 14 6 of 8 13 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0
Tim Means 25 of 42 59% 16 of 29 7 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 7
2 Max Griffin 20 of 53 37% 7 of 32 8 of 15 5 of 6 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Means 13 of 29 44% 5 of 16 2 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 10 of 13 76% 3 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 3
Tim Means 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Tim Means

Round 1
An interesting, all-action welterweight contest will serve as the co-main attraction of this Fight Night event, with a storied veteran battling it out against a man fighting his way back to contention. At 38 years of age, Means (32-13-1, 1 NC; 14-10, 1 NC UFC) is still cruising in the division, with three wins in his last four including a few stellar performances over Nicolas Dalby and Mike Perry in recent memory. While his adversary Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC) started off going just 3-6 in the Octagon, he has turned things around as of late with a similar 3-1 stretch as Means. Drawing the assignment is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the 170-pounders do not touch gloves as they want to immediately get down to business. They start trading almost immediately, with rangy punches and chopping low kicks to match the other. Griffin fires a left hand over the top, and a right hand knocks Means down to his backside. Griffin leaps on top to finish the job, and Means latches on to an armbar off his back to keep his man honest and survive the onslaught. As Means continues to work, he turns to his side, grabs hold of a leg and drives Griffin back to the wall. Means separates, and he appears to have his bearings back as he measures a high kick from his lead leg and a body kick from his rear. Means just misses with a knee as Griffin bears down on him with a combination, and he works the calf to slow down the advancing Griffin. “The Dirty Bird” whiffs on a one-two into a head kick, but the calf kick that follows does connect. Griffin throws fire with a right hand to stun Means for a moment, as he chains it into a power punch that Means tanks seemingly without issue. Means continues to do work on the upper calf, making investments as he also strikes the body. Griffin snaps out a jab that gest Means’ attention, and a right hand that follows it stings Means. Means gives chase with a high kick, and Griffin walks through a pair of open-handed slaps so that he can shoot in for a double. Means keeps his balance as they remain clinched until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Means strikes first in the form of a slapping low kick. The legs from Means continue to fly, and he draws Griffin into a brief but fierce slugfest. The punches turn to slaps for Means, which could signify some sort of damage to a hand, but he shucks any of those concerns by throwing a punch that pops Griffin in the chops. Means keeps Griffin guessing with head kicks, and Griffin finds his way in to land a heavy low kick. Means slaps him upside the head like a Diaz brother, only they are intended as damaging strikes and not disrespectful ones. Griffin jabs his way in, and he blocks a head kick once closing in. Griffin intercepts a rushing Means with a kick to the lead calf, and Means winces and tries to pay Griffin back. Means cuts his opponent off as he advances, and this slows the offense coming back his direction. Means works the body with a left and a right, and he slides back to plant the ball of his foot on the breadbasket before Griffin can land him. The two trade body kicks, and Means jumps at his adversary with a knee that glances off the side. Griffin considers a level change, and as this fails, he hops back. Means hammers a low kick on the inside of the knee, and this slows the movement momentarily. Means walks face-first into a right hand, and this rocks Means and separates him from his balance. As Means falls to the ground, Griffin finds himself taking top position while punching the side. They trade short blows as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 3
Means comes out of his corner aggressively, and he strikes his way into a takedown effort. Griffin stuffs it and drops to his knees, and Means smashes his own knee into the sternum. Griffin reels and whirls around to counter Means’ takedown with his own attempt, and he manages to suck Means’ legs out and drag him to the floor. Means squeezes tightly to keep Griffin pinned to him, and he lands several heel strikes to the thigh as he constantly remains busy off his back with irritating blows. Griffin remains heavy with top pressure and not willing to sit up and fall into potential submission danger, as he wisely grinds out and considers a guard pass. Means turns to his side in an effort to escape, but Griffin hangs on to keep him trapped. Means scoots his back to the wall, only for “Pain” to yank him back down. When Griffin postures up to rain down blows, Means attacks with a submission attempt that he uses to stand back up. Griffin pressures him against the wall and locks his hands with a double, and this sets Means on his seat again much to the disappointment of “The Dirty Bird.” Means continues to smack Griffin with short, frustrating strikes to the body and head, all while working his way to his knees to get upright. Griffin pursues a single, and he lowers his head right into a knee that Means cracks him with. Means takes Griffin down to turn the tables, and he rips the body with a fierce knee before securing a double with seconds to spare. For one final exclamation point, Means lifts his opponent up and slams him down hard. The fight comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means (29-28 Griffin)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Tim Means via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Griffin's power has improved recently, as seen in his knockout of Aalon Cruz, while Means' durability has declined with age and damage. He mentions that Means has been hurt in recent fights by lesser punchers, and Griffin's durability is excellent. He expects Griffin to land hard shots and finish Means.

Griffin wins by second-round knockout
"give me Max Griffin by knockout I'll say like a second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody acknowledges Tim Means' plus money appeal but points to Means' durability issues at 38 years old and his tendency to fade in later rounds. He notes that Means has been relying more on wrestling as he ages, but Max Griffin has good takedown defense (as seen against Neil Magny) and a solid jab. Cody expects Griffin to beat Means to the jab, stuff takedowns, and eventually land a big shot or win two rounds. He is not betting the fight but picks Griffin.

"I gotta stay with Max Griffin although I don't fault you for maybe taking that live Underdog shot on Timmy so I'm not taking the shot on Timmy it's 38 years like it isn't it isn't very pretty at this …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Daniel Levi picks Max Griffin, citing his momentum, confidence, and aspirations to break into the top 15. He notes Griffin's dangerous striking and recent close fight with Neil Magny. He questions Tim Means' durability and suggests Means may be near retirement. However, he has no interest in laying the -190 price and will just watch.

"I'm a pickaxe Griffin I just don't have any interest in laying the price so I'm personally gonna sit back and enjoy two true vets of the game go at it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Jacob picks Tim Means, expecting him to survive Griffin's early power and then wear him down with pace, pressure, and wrestling. He compares it to Griffin's fight with Neil Magny, where Griffin faded. Jacob thinks Means wins by decision.

Tim Means by decision
"I gotta go with the dirty bird Tim Means to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Griffin has athletic advantages and more left in the tank compared to Means, who is slowing down. Means has better combinations but Griffin's power could catch him. Griffin by knockout at +250 is appealing, but no bet at the current moneyline. Live betting Griffin if Means has early success is a potential strategy.

Griffin by knockout +250
"Griffin via knock it at plus 250 definitely tickles my fancy I like that spot but no bet for me at that minus 200 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul leans toward Tim Means as a dog, expecting a close stand-up fight where Means may get a hot start. However, he admits Means' cardio and durability are concerns, and he does not love the bet. He picks Means for the show but says he won't bet it, noting the over 2.5 rounds at -160 seems about right.

Over 2.5 rounds at -160 (mentioned as about right)
"I'm leaning as a dog or pass but I don't think it's gonna get my money I'll pick Tim Means for the purposes of this show but trust me I don't love it I'm not gonna bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Tim Means, believing Griffin's calf kicks will be effective against Means' heavy lead leg. He notes Griffin's improved boxing and ability to drop opponents, as seen against Neil Magny. He thinks Means, at 38 and coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, will struggle with Griffin's pressure and predicts Griffin wins by 29-28 decision, taking over as the fight goes on.

"I'm going Max Griffin... I love the calf kicks of Max Griffin against Tim Means"
LOSS vs Neil Magny
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Neil Magny 0 54 of 144 37% 104 of 204 1 of 9 11% 0 0 4:33
Max Griffin 1 67 of 123 54% 75 of 132 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Neil Magny 0 16 of 53 30% 17 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Max Griffin 1 30 of 48 62% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
2 Neil Magny 0 26 of 71 36% 28 of 73 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:32
Max Griffin 0 30 of 59 50% 30 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Neil Magny 0 12 of 20 60% 59 of 77 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:01
Max Griffin 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Neil Magny 54 of 144 37% 42 of 126 10 of 13 2 of 5 42 of 130 12 of 14 0 of 0
Max Griffin 67 of 123 54% 34 of 87 11 of 13 22 of 23 63 of 113 2 of 6 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Neil Magny 16 of 53 30% 10 of 44 4 of 6 2 of 3 16 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Max Griffin 30 of 48 62% 10 of 25 4 of 6 16 of 17 28 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
2 Neil Magny 26 of 71 36% 22 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 2 23 of 68 3 of 3 0 of 0
Max Griffin 30 of 59 50% 19 of 48 6 of 6 5 of 5 30 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Neil Magny 12 of 20 60% 10 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 9 9 of 11 0 of 0
Max Griffin 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 11 2 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Neil Magny

Round 1
Two welterweights in their mid-30s are about to go to battle, when longtime vet Magny (25-8, 18-7 UFC) tries to inflict pain on “Pain” Griffin (18-8, 6-6 UFC). The third man inside the Octagon will be nonsense-free referee Keith Peterson for this battle, and they gladly touch gloves before getting after it. They then lead off with kicks, one after the other. Magny works the body while Griffin goes low, with sweeping calf kicks coming at the long legs of Magny. Magny pumps out a jab, and he gets hurt with a right hand that makes him cover up. Griffin does not give chase, and Magny is able to recover from the damaging blow as the pace slows down. Magny kicks the midsection, and Griffin recklessly throws hands. Magny blocks the brunt of the blows and brawls back with him briefly, before bouncing back to bide his time. Griffin continues to work on Magny’s calf to decent effect, making the taller man switch stances a few times. Magny walks forward with a standing elbow, only to get smashed in the face with a jackhammering right hand that completely knocks Magny off his feet. Magny looks shocked from the blow, and Griffin does not dive on top of him, instead letting him back up so that he can strike some more. Magny does not panic, instead walking his way back in the fight and protecting himself from the swiping strikes that come at him. Magny walks him down, and Griffin turns tail and runs from one end of the cage to the other. Magny jabs out several times, using his range to peck at “Pain,” and he follows one with a sharp right hand that makes Griffin stumble. Griffin returns fire with a left hand among intermittent leg kicks, and Magny snipes him with long punches. Magny chambers and unloads kicks from both legs, and a straight right hand comes down the pipe and splits the guard. Griffin returns fire with punches to the body, and Magny punches his way forward only for Griffin again duck and run. It may not look great for fans, but it allows him to reset in a safe place away from the fencing. Griffin dips in with a left uppercut, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights stride out of their corners and immediately start brawling, with both men landing flush on the other. Griffin trips his man up with a low kick after landing punches, and Magny fires off a right hand that reaches his foe backing up. Magny looks to tie him up and pursue some sort of body lock, but Griffin hops away and resets his position. Griffin boots Magny in the side, and Magny wears it well and fires back with a one-two. Magny crowds his opponent, and Griffin catches him a few times with low kicks. “Pain” causes some pain with an eye poke from his thumb, and Magny backs away in pain as Peterson makes sure there is no nonsense to come during his watch. Magny blinks it out and is ready to begin again shortly after the pause, and when they resume, Griffin lands a punch on that same side of Magny’s face. Magny toughs it out and connects with a heavy body kick, causing Griffin to back away and rethink his position. Griffin charges suddenly, bullying Magny back as he lands with heavy punches. Magny shells up effectively, but he gets his nose marked up from the punches as Griffin reaches him first. Magny strings together a solid combination that stings Griffin, and Griffin responds with a heavy right hand. These two are trading heavily, and both are wearing it, but Magny appears to get the better of the exchanges as Griffin is the one forced to backpedal. Magny grabs a hand and slugs Griffin with his other hand, and he changes levels deftly to pursue a single. Trapping one of Griffin’s legs between his own, he nearly puts “Pain” on his back, but Griffin yanks his leg back and gets some space to circle away. Griffin clubs Magny with heavy hands, and Magny responds with powerful blows of his own. Magny gives chase when Griffin tries to escape, but he cannot quite catch him on the way out. Griffin targets the body and aims a right hand over the top, and he is able to block a jump knee from “The Haitian Sensation.” In a clinch position, Magny snags hold of a Thai plum and slams Griffin in the face with elbows and knees, and he lets go right before the round ends, eating a right hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Magny

Round 3
Magny strikes first to open the last round, and Griffin swings punches right back at him. The first 15 seconds are a torrid brawl, landing one after the other as they try to shoulder roll the strikes. Griffin punches his way into a clinch situation, where Magny capitalizes on it with a knee to the body as he pressures “Pain” to go after a single. Griffin keeps his balance against the cage wall, all while Magny lumps his thigh up with loud knees. Magny gets a hook in as he looks to secure standing back control, and he trips out Griffin’s leg to drag him down to the canvas. Riding on Griffin’s back and using his weight to keep Griffin stuck on a knee, Magny gets off several punches as Griffin looks to be struggling. Magny considers a choke attempt, but Griffin has a tight hold of Magny’s right wrist to prevent any submissions. This does leave Magny’s left arm free, and Magny utilizes it to the fullest by smacking Griffin upside the head repeatedly. Magny sits down on Griffin to grind on him and disallow “Pain” from muscling up to his feet, all while he softens Griffin up with punches. Griffin is stuck on his hands and knees as Magny begins to overwhelm him, and a few of the blows hurt Griffin. Magny gets a little overzealous in this position, and Griffin slides out the backdoor to stand back up. Magny does not let him get away with it, as he blasts him with knees up against the clinch and turning him around in pursuit of another single. When that does not succeed, Magny elects to start ripping elbows up top. Griffin grimaces to stay on his feet, as Magny bails on the try to smash him with painful knees. Griffin explodes to try to get out of the bad spot, and Magny lifts him in the air and slams him down on his head like a piledriver one would see in pro wrestling. Even though spiking the head or neck is illegal under the Unified Rules, this seems to be acceptable because of how thrilling it was, as the crowd leaps to its feet. A few standing-to-ground punches land for “The Haitian Sensation” until the final horn blares, putting an end to one of the more entertaining matches of the card thus far. Should Magny get his hand raised, he will tie former champ Georges St. Pierre for the most wins in UFC welterweight history, but the first two rounds were quite close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny (29-28 Magny)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magny (29-28 Magny)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Magny (29-28 Magny)

The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Angelo picks Neil Magny but calls it a razor thin fight that should be closer to a pick'em. He acknowledges Magny is more well-rounded but notes Max Griffin's 70% takedown defense and power in his hands pose real danger. He thinks the odds are too wide in Magny's favor.

"i do like neil to win but i actually think this is a razor thin fight i think this should be closer to a pickum"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Big Brady picks Neil Magny to win by decision. He cites Magny's advantages in height, reach, experience, and competition level. He notes that Griffin has been looking good but against lower-level opponents, and that Griffin doesn't wrestle enough to exploit Magny's takedown defense. Brady believes Magny will win wherever the fight goes.

Neil Magny wins by decision
"I gotta go magni I think he's going to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Cody agrees with Magny, highlighting his cardio and grappling advantage. He thinks Magny can control the fight with takedowns and pressure. He notes Griffin's power but believes Magny's volume and wrestling will be decisive.

"i think it's a neo magnet is a pretty decent pick all the way around"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Daniel Levi picks Neil Magny, noting his length, volume, and underrated wrestling. He says Magny is a nightmare matchup for most and has a history of overperforming as an underdog. He respects Griffin's resurgence but thinks Magny's fight IQ and experience will edge him out. He would not lay -230 but would have taken Magny at under -190.

Magny by decision, would bet Magny at under -190
"I think magni does win this fight... maggie's just so smart man he's just so good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The host is very confident in Magny, praising his pressure, clinch work, and durability. He believes Magny will push Griffin backwards, beat him in the clinch and on the ground, and that Griffin cannot handle Magny's pace. He calls the line a gift and expects a dominant decision win.

Magny by decision
"i really like neomagne in the spot i think this line is a little bit of a gift honestly i think he makes this look like a minus 400 performance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

Paul picks Magny, citing his cardio, durability, and wrestling. He thinks Magny can out-volume Griffin and take him down. He notes Griffin's lack of takedown defense against wrestlers. He sees Magny as a solid parlay piece.

parlay piece
"i got neil magni i think i really like what he does in terms of game planning"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Neil Magny

The MMA Guru picks Neil Magny over Max Griffin, despite sensing a possible Griffin upset. He notes Griffin's close contests with lesser opponents and red flags in his record, while Magny has beaten ranked opponents and has a reach advantage. The Guru predicts Magny will win a 29-28 decision using control time against the cage, body shots, and takedowns, though he acknowledges Griffin could land calf kicks early.

"i'm gonna go with neil magne over max griffin"
WIN vs Carlos Condit
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 63 of 176 35% 66 of 179 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 93 of 171 54% 95 of 173 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 13 of 42 30% 13 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 1 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Max Griffin 0 28 of 68 41% 28 of 68 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 29 of 48 60% 30 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Max Griffin 0 22 of 66 33% 25 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Carlos Condit 0 30 of 62 48% 31 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 63 of 176 35% 35 of 134 17 of 30 11 of 12 61 of 173 2 of 3 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 93 of 171 54% 59 of 129 6 of 11 28 of 31 81 of 153 2 of 2 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 13 of 42 30% 3 of 27 6 of 11 4 of 4 13 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 34 of 61 55% 18 of 41 0 of 1 16 of 19 24 of 45 0 of 0 10 of 16
2 Max Griffin 28 of 68 41% 17 of 51 7 of 12 4 of 5 28 of 67 0 of 1 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 29 of 48 60% 18 of 34 2 of 5 9 of 9 28 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 22 of 66 33% 15 of 56 4 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 64 2 of 2 0 of 0
Carlos Condit 30 of 62 48% 23 of 54 4 of 5 3 of 3 29 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlos Condit vs. Max Griffin

Round 1
The prelims will be capped off by a welterweight battle that sees “The Natural Born Killer” Condit (32-13, 9-9 UFC) try to go on a three-fight win streak against the heavy-handed Griffin (17-8, 5-6 UFC). Depending on the result, either Condit will fall below .500 in the UFC or Griffin will rise to that level, barring an unusual turn of events. Referee Marc Goddard will keep a watchful eye on the violence that is about to be bestowed in the cage, and the fighters do not touch gloves before inflicting said violence. Griffin charges out of his corner to attack, with a low kick and several high kicks to sends the former WEC champ backing away. Condit greets him with a few punches to back him off, and he puts together a combination and a head kick that gets slapped away. Griffin chops down Condit’s lead leg multiple times, and Condit’s calf is already reddening from them. Condit fires off a body kick, and he cannot get out of the way from another leg kick. Griffin walks through a punch to land a heavier one, and his leg kick that follows spins Condit around. “The Natural Born Killer” does not block the kicks or check them, and he tries to go after Griffin with his own but Griffin is right there with another. Condit turns about with another few kicks, and the damage is mounting fast as Condit appears to be struggling with it. Condit chips at the calf and then the body, but he absorbs one more low kick. Condit is forced to switch stances, and Griffin greets the change of position with one on the other leg. Condit marches forward to attack, only to get his lead leg chopped down beneath him. Condit ducks down into a right hand, and Griffin slips it and comes back with an overhand right. Condit just comes up short with a counter right hand when Griffin advances, and he does kick the body successful on the way out. Griffin’s leg kick makes Condit pick it up and try to move with it, and the ex-champ strides in and kicks the body. Condit’s calves are swelling up fast, and he tries to connect with a spinning kick but gets pushed back. Griffin blasts him with a right hand, sending Condit crashing into the wall and down to the ground. Griffin looks for a finish, delivering some heavy ground-and-pound, but Condit threatens with an offensive guard and survives to fight his way back to his feet. Condit jumps at his foe with a flying knee, and Griffin sits down on a leg kick and takes a right hand on the chin. Condit marches forward to brawl, and Griffin is there to greet him until he ducks out of the way to avoid most of the danger before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The second round begins with both fighters meeting in the center of the Octagon, but neither commit to any strikes until Condit launches a head kick. Griffin blocks it and targets Condit’s lead leg with impunity, and the former champ can do nothing but take it. Condit takes a traditional martial arts stance as he looks to wind up a side kick, and he steps in to clinch and drill Griffin in the chin with a knee. Condit catches Griffin on the end of a right hand to send “Pain” staggering back, but it is likely out of balance and not damage. Griffin gains his composure and fires off a right hand, and he beats Condit to the punch with a follow-up jab. Condit ducks down into a leg kick, and he gets off a body kick but is countered on the way out. Condit checks a leg kick for the first time, and he whiffs on a body kick but sprints forward with a trip and throw takedown. Griffin manages to get back to his feet, only to meet a right hand from Condit. Condit sits down on a right hand as well, and a left to the body follows. Griffin keeps his right hand up high to counter Condit, and he takes a kick to the body while watching Condit’s movement. Condit’s pace appears to be growing while Griffin’s is decreasing, and Condit advances with a spinning kick that bounces off his intended target. Griffin scores a leg kick, and Condit ducks down to trip his foe but cannot achieve it. Condit unloads with several punches to the head and body, and he marks up Griffin with a clean right hand. Condit reaches forward with an elbow, a right hand, and a cartwheel kick that comes up short. Condit ignores a low kick to crack Griffin on the chin, and “The Natural Born Killer” ignores a leg kick so that he can continue to strike. Griffin times Condit when Condit darts forward with a right hand, and Condit leads the dance and boots “Pain” in the side with a kick. Griffin pushes Condit away and the two jab at the same time, and Condit slips and delivers a right hand. Condit dips in with a left hand and a head kick, and the round ends when Griffin kicks him back.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Condit
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Condit

Round 3
Between rounds, we can see the damage on Condit’s nose, but he pays it no mind and is ready for the final frame. Condit offers a glove touch, and Griffin pushes his hand away and tries to get off an overhand right. Condit ducks down and clocks Griffin in the chin with a head kick, but the Californian eats it like a steak. Griffin blitzes forward to attack, and he clubs Condit with a few punches to make “The Natural Born Killer” fall into the cage wall. Condit catches a body kick, and he pushes Griffin over to force Griffin to roll through and get back up. As Griffin tries to stand up, Condit batters him with strikes, until Griffin gathers his thoughts and starts to land hard hooks. Griffin scores single punches square on the chin, and Condit walks through them and throws right back at him. Condit slips one such punch to land a left hand, and Griffin stands tall and scores again. A three-punch combination stands Condit up, but Condit is not concerned and instead is fired up as he strings together a length combination to back Griffin up. At the end of a salvo, Condit tags Griffin with a right hand, and Griffin looks for a right hand counter but comes up short. Condit jabs out and flusters Griffin for a moment, before stepping in with an elbow. Condit advances with long, stinging jabs, and he walks face-first into a right hand that he completely ignores. Condit digs a left hand to the body and draws a pained reaction out of “Pain,” and he shoots in for a takedown to keep Griffin guessing. The takedown does not succeed, but Condit is able to knee in the body a few times. Griffin smashes Condit in the face with a right hand, and he bullies Condit into the fence and hits a takedown. Griffin takes half guard, but Condit rolls and is able to stand up after briefly threatening with an armbar. Griffin clings on to him for one final takedown try, and Condit attacks with a kimura and a guillotine but neither are there. Condit drops down to attack a leg of his opponent, and he takes Griffin’s back at the bell. This is going to be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (29-28 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Angelo picks Griffin despite rooting for Condit. He notes Condit is slowing down at 37, while Griffin is faster and stronger. He thinks Griffin's speed and power will overcome Condit's technical advantages. He has Griffin in his DraftKings lineup.

"i have max griffin winning this fight uh i'll be rooting for carlos condit kind of because i also do have max griffin in my draftkings lineup"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by decision. He emphasizes that Griffin should use his wrestling, as Condit has been taken down in every fight where opponents attempted takedowns. He notes Griffin averages nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes with 51% accuracy. He thinks the striking will be close but the takedowns will be the difference. He mentions Condit's recent wins over Court McGee and Matt Brown but notes McGee didn't wrestle, which was a mistake.

"i'm going to take max griffin to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody picks Griffin but prefers the submission prop at 20-1 on DraftKings. He notes Griffin's wrestling advantage and believes his best path is takedowns and submissions. He thinks Griffin can win by submission despite no UFC subs, citing Condit's vulnerability.

Griffin by submission at +2000 on DraftKings; Griffin by decision at +135
"give me the 20 to one on a minus 190 favorite in what i believe is his best path to victory"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Daniel Levi picks Carlos Condit as a slight lean, acknowledging it's an illogical pick. He admits Condit is past his prime and that Griffin probably should win by decision using top control. However, he respects Condit's veteran savvy and believes he can do something sneaky to pull off an upset. He notes that Condit still has fight in him, as seen in the Oliveira fight where he almost got a submission. He is not confident in the pick.

"i'm gonna i'm gonna edge connor to do something sneaky and upset a lot of people"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Carlos Condit

Jacob picks Condit, citing his recent performances and value at 7500. He notes Condit has never been knocked out and has looked great against Matt Brown. He thinks Condit's experience and takedowns will be key. He compares Condit's potential run to Glover Teixeira's late-career surge.

"i honestly think carlos conda at 7 500 is one of the best values on this card"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

I like Max Griffin here. Condit's takedown defense is terrible (35% defense), and Griffin has good pressure and takedowns. Condit hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC, and Griffin's cardio is good enough to grind out a decision. I expect Griffin to land takedowns and control the fight, winning by decision. The line might seem wide, but I trust Griffin to exploit Condit's weakness.

Griffin by decision, over 2.5 rounds
"i like max griffin here... i think griffin by decision the line might seem a little bit wide to some people which is why i understand excuse me why some people might be taking carlos conant in the spot but …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Paul picks Griffin by decision at +135. He notes Griffin's wrestling and volume striking, and Condit's durability. He thinks Griffin will use takedowns to secure rounds. He doesn't like the moneyline at -190.

Griffin by decision at +135
"i'm gonna go with a griffin by decision but uh you know i the confidence level not not where i'd wanted just to slam that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Carlos Condit

The Guru picks Condit by 29-28 unanimous decision in an upset. He expects Griffin to win the first round by landing big shots on Condit's chin, but Condit's chin will hold up. As the fight goes on, Condit will invest in body shots, leg kicks, and takedowns, mixing in grappling and counter hooks. Griffin will become boxing-heavy and head-hunt, while Condit circles out and lands. The Guru sees Condit taking the second and third rounds with a more varied attack.

"i'm gonna go with carlos condit here by decision in an upset i think max griffin is good i think he's gonna be doing good early in this fight but as the rounds go on i think condit will make …"
Chris Curtis - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
WIN vs Max Griffin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 59 of 178 33% 63 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Chris Curtis 0 64 of 155 41% 71 of 162 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 21 of 48 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Chris Curtis 0 8 of 32 25% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Griffin 0 17 of 58 29% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 52 40% 23 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Max Griffin 0 21 of 72 29% 22 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 35 of 71 49% 37 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 59 of 178 33% 38 of 147 14 of 21 7 of 10 58 of 175 1 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 64 of 155 41% 44 of 132 18 of 21 2 of 2 61 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 21 of 48 43% 14 of 38 4 of 6 3 of 4 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 8 of 32 25% 5 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Max Griffin 17 of 58 29% 12 of 51 2 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 52 40% 15 of 46 4 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 50 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 21 of 72 29% 12 of 58 8 of 12 1 of 2 21 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 35 of 71 49% 24 of 57 11 of 14 0 of 0 34 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)

Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."
LOSS vs Roman Kopylov
TKO (head kick) R3 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · Jan 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Kopylov 0 142 of 261 54% 146 of 265 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 130 of 307 42% 133 of 310 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 48 of 110 43% 48 of 110 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Roman Kopylov 0 58 of 104 55% 59 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 38 of 96 39% 38 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roman Kopylov 0 42 of 74 56% 45 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 1 44 of 101 43% 47 of 104 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Kopylov 142 of 261 54% 107 of 204 30 of 52 5 of 5 142 of 261 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 130 of 307 42% 91 of 266 14 of 16 25 of 25 124 of 300 4 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Kopylov 42 of 83 50% 32 of 62 8 of 19 2 of 2 42 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 48 of 110 43% 33 of 93 6 of 8 9 of 9 46 of 108 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Roman Kopylov 58 of 104 55% 42 of 78 14 of 24 2 of 2 58 of 104 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 38 of 96 39% 25 of 83 3 of 3 10 of 10 38 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Roman Kopylov 42 of 74 56% 33 of 64 8 of 9 1 of 1 42 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 44 of 101 43% 33 of 90 5 of 5 6 of 6 40 of 96 2 of 3 2 of 2
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Curtis vs. Roman Kopylov

Round 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis

Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.

The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.

"Roman kopilov is the better Striker so Roman kopilov has to be the pick it's that simple Striker versus Striker I'm going with the better Striker"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.

"I like kopov here I think kopov probably wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.

"sign me up for action man he this might be our last big cash on action man you know but uh I'm here for it dude I'm absolutely here for it so plus 210 sign me up for Chris Curtis"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.

"So I got to pick Koppelov here, I just, yeah, I'm my inclination is to pick Koppelov as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.

"I think Roman kopov is going to come out here and pick him apart but it could get sketchy late second round late third round"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.

"I think Roman copy love has all the tools to win in this one if he doesn't get caught with a big shot in the middle of the Octagon tradeing I think that he's going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.

by knockout
"I still have to lean with copil love as I think he's a superior Striker and has enough sting on his shots to be the second person to finish Chris Curtis by knockout and 43 professional fights"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.

"I'm flipping my pick we all go down together with the action man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.

"I'm going Roman copy love to win this one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Roman Kopylov

Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.

"But I am also going to take Koppelov because much as I love him and respect him. I do not trust Chris Curtis."
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brendan Allen 0 112 of 222 50% 128 of 242 6 of 13 46% 0 0 6:05
Chris Curtis 0 124 of 241 51% 141 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brendan Allen 0 22 of 40 55% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:17
Chris Curtis 0 13 of 41 31% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Brendan Allen 0 29 of 66 43% 29 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Chris Curtis 0 46 of 80 57% 46 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brendan Allen 0 23 of 42 54% 31 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:03
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 45 51% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brendan Allen 0 25 of 39 64% 28 of 44 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 44 47% 21 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
5 Brendan Allen 0 13 of 35 37% 16 of 38 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:14
Chris Curtis 0 21 of 31 67% 35 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brendan Allen 112 of 222 50% 72 of 172 25 of 34 15 of 16 108 of 214 4 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 124 of 241 51% 96 of 205 25 of 33 3 of 3 122 of 237 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brendan Allen 22 of 40 55% 12 of 26 7 of 10 3 of 4 22 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 13 of 41 31% 8 of 34 5 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brendan Allen 29 of 66 43% 20 of 55 6 of 8 3 of 3 28 of 64 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 46 of 80 57% 36 of 67 8 of 11 2 of 2 46 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Brendan Allen 23 of 42 54% 14 of 31 4 of 6 5 of 5 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 45 51% 18 of 38 5 of 7 0 of 0 22 of 43 1 of 2 0 of 0
4 Brendan Allen 25 of 39 64% 16 of 30 6 of 6 3 of 3 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 44 47% 17 of 39 3 of 4 1 of 1 21 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Brendan Allen 13 of 35 37% 10 of 30 2 of 4 1 of 1 11 of 31 2 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 21 of 31 67% 17 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0 20 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 31, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.

underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024
"I got to go Chris here... Chris Curtis is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.

win by third round knockout
"I'm taking Chris Curtis here I'm taking Chris Curtis to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.

likely by TKO
"I think asman does it again... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 4, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.

"I'm gonna go Brendan Allen but I'd be remissed if I left this out... if Brennan's gonna fight with his ego... I'd move in on a Chris Curtis live bet."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.

Curtis by KO (around +250)
"I'm going to go with Curtis here you know rematches normally don't always go the same as the first fight but considering the stylistic Clash that we have here and some of the shortcomings that Allen has with the wrestling …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.

likely by TKO
"I still think that this is a bad match up for Brennan Allen... Chris Curtis likely by TKO"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 2, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brendan Allen

The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.

submission win predicted, first round rear-naked choke
"I'm going to say that he gets this one done by submission and I'm going to say that he gets it done in the first round actually I'm going to say first round rear naked choke for Brendan Allen"
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 140 of 258 54% 144 of 262 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 122 of 243 50% 124 of 245 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 0 51 of 99 51% 51 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 45 of 85 52% 45 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Curtis 0 66 of 111 59% 70 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marc-André Barriault 0 59 of 112 52% 61 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 140 of 258 54% 101 of 210 35 of 44 4 of 4 116 of 230 24 of 28 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 122 of 243 50% 77 of 189 33 of 42 12 of 12 105 of 218 17 of 25 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 23 of 48 47% 15 of 36 5 of 9 3 of 3 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 18 of 46 39% 8 of 35 4 of 5 6 of 6 18 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 51 of 99 51% 40 of 85 10 of 13 1 of 1 47 of 95 4 of 4 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 45 of 85 52% 28 of 64 14 of 18 3 of 3 45 of 84 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Chris Curtis 66 of 111 59% 46 of 89 20 of 22 0 of 0 46 of 87 20 of 24 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 59 of 112 52% 41 of 90 15 of 19 3 of 3 42 of 88 17 of 24 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.

Quarter unit bet at +150; may add more if line moves to +200
"I am G to pick Mark Andre here I'm going to lean Mark Andre here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.

split decision
"give me the dog here Mark andario I do not get this line whatsoever"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.

Curtis by TKO in round 3
"I think it's going to be a third round stoppage for by TKO for Action Man or a decision win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.

plus 165 dog money on home soil
"I'll go with bario I think it's worth a stab at at the dog money on his on his home soil um good Grappler doesn't doesn't rely on grappling very much better Striker but less power than than Curtis so …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.

by decision
"I'm actually gonna pick him to win this fight probably by decision"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.

"I think Chris Curtis is the right kind of guy to beat Mark Andre bario uh if if you ask me what Bario's best weapon is I think it's pretty obvious it's disc cardio um it's cardio and his durability …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.

decision victory
"as an underdog got to go with the guy bario here to go out there and put together their better overall body of workc to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.

Curtis by KO at +225
"I think Curtis by KO is how I see this fight playing out."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.

TKO via body shots, round 2 or 3
"I'm going with Chris Curtis here over Mark Andre barot"
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R2 3:04 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nassourdine Imavov 0 57 of 84 67% 59 of 86 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:22
Chris Curtis 0 26 of 61 42% 34 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nassourdine Imavov 0 29 of 36 80% 31 of 38 3 of 4 75% 1 0 2:07
Chris Curtis 0 15 of 32 46% 20 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nassourdine Imavov 0 28 of 48 58% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Chris Curtis 0 11 of 29 37% 14 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nassourdine Imavov 57 of 84 67% 27 of 48 8 of 12 22 of 24 54 of 80 3 of 4 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 26 of 61 42% 4 of 28 8 of 18 14 of 15 26 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nassourdine Imavov 29 of 36 80% 11 of 16 4 of 6 14 of 14 28 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 15 of 32 46% 1 of 12 5 of 10 9 of 10 15 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Nassourdine Imavov 28 of 48 58% 16 of 32 4 of 6 8 of 10 26 of 45 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 11 of 29 37% 3 of 16 3 of 8 5 of 5 11 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.

"I picked nasridine which means Chris is going to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.

fight goes to decision
"I do lean towards the Nazarene imove offside is going to be this reason... Chris Curtis is a very slow starter... I don't see him knocking out nazarethov... this fight is Going the Distance more often than not"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.

"I think he just stays at the outside and paints a picture"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'll pick I'll I'll stick with you and pick Chris Curtis here. I don't like it, but yeah, you see what I'm saying."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.

"I really like Chris Curtis here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Nassourdine Imavov

James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.

Chris Curtis KO round 3 at +2100 (small sprinkle)
"I'm calling it about a 29-28 win for a Marvel van"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.

"I feel as though he is just more equipped to win this stylistic matchup not to mention the size disadvantage that Chris Curtis will be at"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Nassourdine Imavov

Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.

"I'm with you I'm picking imov but I couldn't I couldn't I couldn't better but against our guy uh Chris Curtis with my actual money"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.

underdog pick, noted odds
"I am going to be picking Chris Curtis as an underdog here over nasadena mavov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jun 9, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.

Curtis over 2.0 +105, currently +131; Imavov opened -116, now -146
"I'm gonna pick Curtis here. I think the big the other big thing here is the buckley fight... Curtis is much more capable of taking small swings of momentum and using them to close doors than buckley is."
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 0 70 of 201 34% 80 of 216 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 83 of 188 44% 88 of 195 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 13 of 48 27% 13 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 64 46% 30 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 65 30% 26 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chris Curtis 0 23 of 56 41% 27 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:55
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 37 of 88 42% 41 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Chris Curtis 0 30 of 68 44% 31 of 69 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 70 of 201 34% 44 of 164 21 of 30 5 of 7 63 of 193 7 of 8 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 83 of 188 44% 63 of 161 5 of 8 15 of 19 76 of 172 3 of 6 4 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 13 of 48 27% 8 of 40 1 of 2 4 of 6 13 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 64 46% 20 of 51 0 of 0 10 of 13 30 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 65 30% 11 of 51 9 of 14 0 of 0 18 of 62 2 of 3 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 23 of 56 41% 20 of 51 1 of 2 2 of 3 19 of 44 0 of 2 4 of 10
3 Kelvin Gastelum 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 11 of 14 1 of 1 32 of 83 5 of 5 0 of 0
Chris Curtis 30 of 68 44% 23 of 59 4 of 6 3 of 3 27 of 64 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.

moneyline bet
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick I do have a money line bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.

"I like I like Curtis to win ... I'll take Chris Curtis to win by like a split uh decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.

Curtis by decision at +240; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"Chris Curtis by decision I'll tell you that much"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.

"Yeah, same."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.

"I'm locked and loaded on Chris Curtis"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.

"I think this is probably the most favorable matchup that Calvin gaslim has had during this entire slump maybe with the exception of the Ian heinish fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.

Curtis by decision at +240; over 2.5 rounds at -220; under 0.5 takedowns for Gastelum on PrizePicks
"sign me up for Action Man"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.

round three finish, body shot
"I'm gonna say Curtis finishes him in round three"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.

"I'm going to pick Chris Curtis because I think he's going to land the better shots."
KO (punches) R2 2:49 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 1 36 of 87 41% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 50 of 163 30% 50 of 163 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joaquin Buckley 0 29 of 91 31% 29 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Curtis 1 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Joaquin Buckley 0 21 of 72 29% 21 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 36 of 87 41% 25 of 72 3 of 5 8 of 10 29 of 78 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 50 of 163 30% 27 of 134 15 of 20 8 of 9 48 of 159 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 19 of 49 38% 11 of 38 2 of 3 6 of 8 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 29 of 91 31% 12 of 71 11 of 13 6 of 7 27 of 87 2 of 4 0 of 0
2 Chris Curtis 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 29 1 of 1 6 of 8
Joaquin Buckley 21 of 72 29% 15 of 63 4 of 7 2 of 2 21 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Joaquin Buckley vs. Chris Curtis
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)

Round 1
The UFC 282 ESPN prelims chose violence to open them up, as middleweight strikers Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC) and Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) are sure to throw leather with high intensity for as long as they can. With 27 knockouts combined, referee Jason Herzog and the smelling salts may be needed by the bout’s end if fight fans are lucky. The sluggers that have developed some bad blood before their match do not touch gloves, as they would rather introduce their fists to one another’s faces first. The fighters are tense and not willing to release much of note early, tossing single strikes at one another like head kicks. Curtis splits the guard with a jab, and he sits down on a low kick. Buckley answers with one of his own, and this back-and-forth of similar strikes continues. Buckley jabs to the head and body, and he hops back from a one-two that zips straight at him. Buckley crowds his man with a few short punches, and when Curtis escapes, Buckley whips a low kick that slaps hard on the lead leg. Curtis gets one-two through, and Buckley surges forward in hopes of getting that back after getting stung. Curtis stays light on his feet and escapes, while keeping a high guard to defend against the heavier strikes hurled at him. Buckley mixes his strikes up with a body shot, and he whiffs with the lion’s share of a combination that ends with a glancing head kick. Curtis intercepts an advancing Buckley with an inside thigh kick that skips into the groin, and the fans shower them with boos until realizing it was a foul. Curtis apologizes and Buckley recovers, and they return to throwing single strikes when resuming. Buckley just misses with a head kick, and Curtis starts talking to him. Curtis fires off a jab and a right hand, and Buckley tries to reply with five heavy punches that largely collide with the guard. The jabs from Curtis lead to Buckley pawing at his eye, and Buckley tries to chop down the lead leg. Buckley remains busy but walks into a body kick, and he gets cracked as he strikes. Curtis smiles at him and blocks a pair of hefty uppercuts, and he shells up when Buckley fires off a combo that concludes with a head kick. When Buckley’s punches up top miss, he goes after the body with a salvo. The round ends right as Buckley connects with a handful of body shots.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 2
Curtis is quick to claim the center of the cage, and Buckley leads off with kicks to the body on the outside. Curtis walks Buckley down and jabs several times, eliciting reactions out of his opponent. Curtis walks through the heavy blows to snap the head back with straight punches, and Buckley is throwing everything he has into power shots. Curtis’ guard and head movement largely keep him out of harm, but Buckley crashes the pocket and catches him at the end of a left hook. Curtis looks to play counter, and Buckley beats him to the punch with a combo. Curtis snaps out a left hand, and Buckley strings three punches together before absorbing a low kick. They land alternating hooks at the same time, and Curtis rolls when retreating as Buckley pours on the pressure. Two nasty hooks to the body slam into Curtis’ side, but he catches Buckley leaping at him with a left. Buckley loads up and connects, forcing Curtis into action with a responsive head kick. Buckley chains a long series of punches together off the guard, and he is feeling himself.
Curtis blocks and catches a head kick and unloads a brutal left hand that knocks Buckley clean off his feet, and Buckley might be out when he hits the ground. “New Mansa” snaps back into action, and he throws his legs up and tries to swing off his back, but Curtis is measured and he drills his foe with ground-and-pound. Buckley goes out again, and the punches knock him back conscious once more as Herzog is paying close attention but giving Buckley a great deal of leeway. Knowing the finish is right there for the taking, Curtis hammers the nail with hammerfists, putting Buckley out once and for all.
Although Buckley comes back to seconds later and appears upset with Herzog about the stoppage, he was knocked out two or three times before the finish materialized. Curtis has bounced back from his first UFC defeat in big way, and he is all smiles after the back-and-forth battle.

The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley R2 2:49 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.

No moneyline bet; waiting for prop bets.
"the pick I think is going to be Buckley at this point and this this is I may change his pick so make sure you watch the updated video"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.

Curtis wins by second round knockout; Curtis is a dog at +135
"I like Chris Curtis to get this done um I like Chris Curtis to eventually find the chin of Joaquin Buckley and and knock this guy out and give him his fourth knockout loss"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.

"I'm all action man Homer and so let's bring it back to the positive of why Chris Curtis wins this fight... takedown defense striking output"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.

"Buckley's got more ways to win... I think as long as Buckley uses a lot of movement uses a lot of kicks and doesn't stay stationary"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.

"I do think Buckley gets his hand raised here but I think he's one of those guys that's going to go out there and continuously trade wins and losses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.

"I'll be picking him but I'm more interested in what you have to say about this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.

"I'm going with Joaquin Buckley here I think he gets a lot of stick because he was the highlight guy and he never really lived up to that potential but dude he gave nasadena mavov everything he could handle"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.

Concerned about weight cut; if fight is at 185, would bet on Curtis.
"Chris Curtis is going to be the pick. I don't love these odds going down in weight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.

decision
"Curtis by decision for me."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.

finish in round 2 or 3
"Curtis going down to 170 lbs, which is where he has spent the majority of his career before joining the UFC. I think this will be a great uh sign for him that he's going to start moving up. I think this will be a great match up for him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.

second or third round TKO, body shot related
"I'm going with Chris Curtis over Max Griffin. He is the favorite here. 3 to one favorite."