vs
+120 -135
UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 11"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Calvin Kattar
4.41 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
6.55 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.34 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
77.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Steve Garcia
5.39 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
2.12 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
88.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Calvin Kattar
Moneyline
BetWay +120
Steve Garcia
Moneyline
Caesars -135
Calvin Kattar - Fight History
LOSS vs Steve Garcia
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 123 21% 26 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 85 of 250 34% 85 of 250 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 71 30% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 32 of 87 36% 32 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 31 of 92 33% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 26 of 123 21% 21 of 116 3 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 85 of 250 34% 52 of 208 23 of 29 10 of 13 85 of 249 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 8 of 26 30% 4 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 22 of 71 30% 11 of 53 5 of 10 6 of 8 22 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 32 of 87 36% 19 of 72 10 of 11 3 of 4 32 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 13 of 50 26% 12 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 31 of 92 33% 22 of 83 8 of 8 1 of 1 31 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)

Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.
"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout
"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 38 of 134 28% 38 of 134 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Youssef Zalal 0 74 of 133 55% 75 of 134 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Youssef Zalal 0 26 of 46 56% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Youssef Zalal 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 47 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 20 of 74 27% 20 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Youssef Zalal 0 21 of 41 51% 21 of 41 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 38 of 134 28% 27 of 110 5 of 11 6 of 13 35 of 128 3 of 6 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 74 of 133 55% 53 of 104 5 of 9 16 of 20 74 of 133 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 8 of 23 34% 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 1 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 26 of 46 56% 16 of 33 2 of 2 8 of 11 26 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 10 of 37 27% 5 of 27 2 of 3 3 of 7 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 27 of 46 58% 20 of 35 2 of 5 5 of 6 27 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 20 of 74 27% 15 of 63 2 of 6 3 of 5 17 of 68 3 of 6 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 21 of 41 51% 17 of 36 1 of 2 3 of 3 21 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-395), Kattar (+310)

Round 1
Records are meant to be broken, and torches are meant to be passed. It is not a guarantee of either, but rather that with enough time, everything moves forward. Itching to see if the featherweight division has passed him by entirely, 36-year-old striker Kattar (23-8, 7-6 UFC) had had a tough go of it since his fateful encounter with Max Holloway in 2021. On the other side of that metric is Zalal (16-5-1, 6-3-1 UFC), who bounced out and back into the UFC only to find himself on a solid run of three straight submissions. Whether Kattar can impose adequate resistance or be the fourth in that line, referee Dan Miragliotta will oversee it all from start to finish. Gloves are touched, and both men want to start fairly measured. Picking their shots with jabs and low kicks—a pace that has been consistent for many of the fights on this card—Zalal aims a few more times at the front leg before going up high. Zalal jabs and moves, with Kattar giving chase but not cutting him off or cornering him. Zalal is able to strafe to either side, poking with his strikes and not taking much back. They both flash jabs at the same time, and it is Zalal who follows up with a one-two. The Moroccan is comfortable at his own distance, outshooting the boxer and marking his face up with power punches. Zalal picks a jab to open up a step-in knee, and Kattar walks him down but is stuck in first gear. Zalal reaches his man with a long right hand, and they try to trip one another at the same time. Kattar buzzes the hair with a huge overhand right, and Zalal pecks at him with a left hook before zipping away. Zalal measures another knee up the middle, and Kattar’s chin has no trouble holding up. Kattar puts a little more mustard behind some punches, and Zalal is forced to book it to the side so he does not get hurt. Zalal keeps moving, Kattar keeps chasing and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 2
Fists are tapped together before they are traded in Round 2, and they let their jabs fly early. Zalal shoots in for a double, and Kattar easily stuffs it and turns to the side to break away. Zalal jabs the body and then the head, and his head movement keeps him from taking unnecessary shots. Zalal shifts to one direction, then pivots the other way, and he throws out a takedown to keep Kattar guessing. Zalal jabs Kattar up, and his leg kicks mixed in are repeatedly effective. Zalal steps in with a high knee that bounces off the eyebrow, and he checks a kick that flies his way. Zalal splits the guard with a jab and rips a kick to the ribs, and he does not slow “The Boston Finisher.” Kattar follows Zalal around the Octagon, with Zalal doing full rotations and then some while Kattar tries and fails to track him down. Kattar drops low to shoot a faked takedown, and Zalal just misses with an uppercut. “The Moroccan Devil” rifles off a kick to the side, and he chains a few jabs behind it. Kattar reaches him with his own body kick, but it is one-and-done as he is primarily headhunting with jabs. Kattar checks a kick and maintains Zalal’s respect with a scooping right hand over the shoulder, and he appears irritated that he cannot track and lock Zalal down. The horn sounds with Kattar lunging at air.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Zalal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Zalal

Round 3
There is a presumptive final glove touch leading into the last round, and Kattar has listened to his corner and is pressing the action even harder than before. Kattar’s chases have turned into borderline jogging sessions, with Zalal rapidly springing from side to side to evade attack. Kattar tries to time an uppercut, and he gets his hands on Zalal at least once in a flurry before Zalal rushes away. Kattar scores a low kick, checks one back and drops to his knees to defend and crawl away from a takedown. Kattar gets up and sprints towards Zalal with looping left hands, and Zalal pecks back with jabs. Kattar sells out and marches through a few strikes to bash Zalal in the cheek with an elbow, and Zalal’s expression changes from light-hearted to one a bit more serious. Zalal keeps hurrying away to one side, and Kattar is tracking him and winding up with big power. Zalal senses danger and slides away, marking up Kattar’s face and swelling up his right eye. Kattar reaches and connects cleanly on Zalal, who stumbles to the side and is no worse for wear. Kattar is buzzing missiles past his intended target, with Zalal doing nothing but running away while Kattar is hellbent for leather. Zalal occasionally sticks out a jab, but over the last few minutes he has been backpedaling even more than usual—drawing boos and questions of what the rule of timidity is for, if a fighter can back away from engagements for minutes at a time without being called on it. Kattar cannot get the home run strike he is looking for, and when the fight wraps, he is understandably disappointed that he got outhustled.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (29-28 Zalal)

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Angelo is extremely confident in Youssef Zalal, calling him his 'most confident pick on this card.' He highlights Zalal's momentum, improved wrestling and submissions, and Calvin Kattar's inability to defend takedowns. He also notes that Kattar's team (New England Cartel) has not proven they can stop takedowns, so he fades them against any wrestler.

"yousef's going to be the pick I'm very he's my most confident pick on this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Big Brady picks Zalal by second-round submission, citing Zalal's recent finishing streak and improved aggression. Kattar is 36, on a losing streak, and had a terrible performance against Aljamain Sterling. Zalal has a grappling path and can also win on the feet with movement. He expects Zalal to take down Kattar and submit him.

submission in round 2
"give me AOW give me AOW by sub I'll say in the second round"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Youssef Zalal, emphasizing Zalal's newfound confidence and flexibility. He notes that Zalal has turned a corner, becoming a more dynamic fighter who can create and take advantage of openings. Connor compares Zalal's development to a sumo wrestler who has found his center, and believes Zalal's adaptability marks him as a potential elite fighter. He acknowledges Kattar's durability and slow-start style but thinks Zalal's improved wrestling and ability to recover from difficulty will be key.

Connor comments that the odds are too wide: Kattar opened at +296 and is now +366, Zalal opened at -438 and is now -427. He says he agrees the odds are too strongly in Zalal's favor, given Kattar's cold streak should be contextualized by the level of his opponents.
"I think he has basically come out the other side of the young veteran tunnel and realized that he has spent all this time developing this fantastically well-rounded game and at the only thing that was standing between him and …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Lucrative James is confident Youssef Zalal will win and cover the -400 price tag. He believes Zalal is the better striker, kickboxer, grappler, and wrestler everywhere except pure boxing, where Kattar has an edge. He highlights Zalal's elite footwork and defensive skills, noting that even Ilia Topuria struggled to land clean on him. He expects Zalal to outclass Kattar on the outside with jabs and leg kicks, and predicts a 30-27 decision. He dismisses the idea of betting Kattar as a value underdog, stating the narrative that Kattar is washed is correct.

"I believe that this week's narrative is correct and that yusf Sala is going to cover his minus 400 price tag"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal is the better fighter with momentum. He will remain competitive on the feet and then get the fight to the ground, showcasing his aggressive submission approach. He is more aggressive than Sterling, who couldn't finish Kattar, and will find a submission.

Zalal by submission
"I think Zalal is the better fighter and obviously the momentum is in his corner... I see a lot of people leaning on the Sterling fight... but I believe Zalal is a little bit more aggressive than Sterling... the official …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal over Calvin Kattar, citing Zalal's ability to mix it up with wrestling, low kicks, and boxing. He notes Kattar's recent losses, injuries, and susceptibility to leg kicks. He believes Zalal will chew up Kattar's legs, grapple, and win a decision, possibly with a 10-8 round.

decision
"I'm gonna go of Yousef zal over Calvin ker"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Youssef Zalal confidently, citing Zalal's transformation into a more confident, aggressive, and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Zalal has developed killer instinct, recovers well from difficulty, and has incorporated wrestling effectively into his flow. Zane contrasts this with Calvin Kattar's slow starts and recent losses to elite fighters, suggesting Kattar may have hit a wall stylistically. He believes Zalal is primed for a run and that this fight is a great opportunity for him to prove he's a top-10 fighter.

Zane comments that the odds are too wide: Kattar opened at +296 and is now +366, Zalal opened at -438 and is now -427. He says he agrees the odds are too strongly in Zalal's favor, given Kattar's cold streak should be contextualized by the level of his opponents.
"I'm willing to love it more for Zalalal than I don't like it for Cater because I want to see fighters in Zalalal."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aljamain Sterling 0 8 of 29 27% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Calvin Kattar 0 39 of 71 54% 89 of 128 8 of 13 61% 0 0 10:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aljamain Sterling 0 6 of 23 26% 10 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 15 of 33 45% 16 of 35 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:51
2 Aljamain Sterling 0 2 of 5 40% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 14 of 20 70% 30 of 37 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:10
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 0 of 1 0% 5 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Calvin Kattar 0 10 of 18 55% 43 of 56 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aljamain Sterling 8 of 29 27% 7 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 1
Calvin Kattar 39 of 71 54% 12 of 40 15 of 17 12 of 14 23 of 46 5 of 5 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aljamain Sterling 6 of 23 26% 6 of 21 0 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 1
Calvin Kattar 15 of 33 45% 4 of 20 3 of 4 8 of 9 12 of 27 1 of 1 2 of 5
2 Aljamain Sterling 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 14 of 20 70% 4 of 9 7 of 8 3 of 3 9 of 15 4 of 4 1 of 1
3 Aljamain Sterling 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 10 of 18 55% 4 of 11 5 of 5 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 14
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Sterling (-170), Kattar (+142)

Round 1
The storied rivalry of Boston vs. New York continues with a featherweight contest pitting “The Boston Finisher” Kattar (23-7, 7-5 UFC) against former bantamweight champ Sterling (23-9, 14-4 UFC). This will be a sink-or-swim moment for the New York-based funk-style wrestler, as he jumps into the deep end in his new weight class. The fighters will have 15 minutes or less to prove their case as contenders at 145 pounds, while referee Jason Herzog watches over every step of the way. Fists are not bumped, and instead Sterling wants to crowd forward and start attacking. Sterling reaches out with side kicks to the knee, and Kattar skirts out of the way a few times to take the sting out of them. Sterling wings a right hand that catches his foe on the side of the head, and Kattar stands form and moves away to check a low kick and push out his own jab. Kattar whips a head kick up and nearly clears the shoulder, but Sterling pushes past it and tries to tie him up. Kattar tosses him aside and slowly walks him down. Sterling fakes dropping down for a leg, and he fires off two wide hooks. A high kick from Sterling misses the mark, but several low kicks connect in succession. Sterling continues chipping away from afar with low kicks or the occasional one to the body, and he keeps Kattar from doing much. Sterling shoots in for a single, lifting Kattar’s leg up, but Kattar defends by scoring several punches up close. On Sterling’s second attempt, he leverages “The Boston Finisher” down to the canvas. Kattar pushes on the back of the head to stand back up, and Sterling lifts him off the ground to find a better angle to approach. Kattar leans with his back to the wall, and Sterling sneaks a single hook in as he methodically looks to take the back. Kattar muscles his way upright, and Sterling hits a quick mat return of sorts. Sterling wrenches Kattar all the way down to the ground, and he continues to set up his back take. Sterling ducks down, releasing the grip, so he can let loose a right hand over the top. Kattar sheds him, and he gets kicked in the ribs on the way out. Sterling pushes off his foe’s knee when Kattar advances, and he spins a spinning back fist as Kattar continues to walk him down. Sterling’s awkward movement and takedown efforts shut most of Kattar’s offense down, and Sterling manages to secure a single-leg takedown and climb on top to conclude the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 2
Sterling commences the round with a low kick, and he kicks the other side to trip Kattar up when Kattar tries to throw a punch. Sterling chains a head kick into a level change, and he backs Kattar to the wire and drives a knee to the chest. Sterling trips Kattar’s other leg up to sit him down, and the audience starts to boo Sterling’s efforts. Sterling has a single deep, and he appears to motion or nod to Facebook chief Mark Zuckerberg, who is sitting cageside. Sterling gets Kattar all the way down, only for the Massachusetts native bounce back to his feet in short order. Sterling keeps after a single until there is no way in, and he opts to split Kattar’s legs far apart against the fence to disrupt his balance. When that too does not result in a change in position, Sterling knees the thigh several times and tries to impose his body weight to drag Kattar down. Sterling has a knee brush on the cup of his foe, but Kattar signals he is fine. Sterling clings to his man until he slides off the side, and he dodges a front kick and advances with a trio of punches. Sterling retreats, circling away from anything Kattar tries to reach him with, until he kicks low and aims body shots. The punches from Sterling lead to a level change, where he completes an easy double to rend Kattar to the floor. Sterling moves to side control and stays there, where he holds Kattar down and thwarts any potential offense coming back his way. Sterling continues to grind in the position until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling

Round 3
Sterling practically races out of his corner, throwing looping punches and a high kick until he closes in and grips hold of his adversary. Sterling chucks Kattar down to the mat without much effort, and Kattar posts off his arms to push himself back up. Sterling grapples him from behind, where he pushes Kattar to the wall with a hook in from behind. Kattar fights off the back take to turn himself to the fence, and Sterling switches up for a single. Kattar hangs on, and Sterling lowers him down to the ground comfortably. The crowd is not amused by Sterling’s strategy, and they let him have it as time ticks off the clock. Herzog asks Sterling to do more than hold in this position, and Sterling answers by lifting Kattar’s legs up to scoot him away from the cage wall and put him in a more horizontal position. Sterling keeps smothering until he sets up an arm-triangle choke, and he considers stepping over to one side but opts to go to the other instead to maintain control. Sterling knees the side a few times, and Kattar explodes to his knees and stands up. Sterling uses all of his might, lifting “The Boston Finisher” in the air and slamming him in the mat in a maneuver reminiscent of a pro wrestling powerbomb. The slam hurts Kattar, and Sterling recognizes this and tries to pound his damaged man out. Kattar manages to gather his thoughts as Sterling lays into him, and he grips hold of the waist to keep Sterling from landing anything especially harmful. Sterling attempts to posture up, and Kattar follows him by sitting up, ignoring any offense landing on his ribs. Sterling turns a potentially guillotine choke to a brabo choke, and Kattar sits out of it. Sterling drops hammers right until the end, putting a stamp on a clear-cut dominant performance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)
James Mannino scores the round: 10-9 Sterling (30-27 Sterling)

The Official Result
Aljamain Sterling def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

Angelo slightly leans Aljamain Sterling due to Kattar's 18-month layoff and knee surgery, which could cause ring rust. He notes Sterling's takedown accuracy is poor but his relentless wrestling may be enough. He acknowledges Kattar is the better striker and if he stuffs takedowns, he wins. He calls it razor thin at 51-49.

"Alaine very very very slight lean as the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody sees this as a live underdog spot. He notes Sterling's wrestling may not translate to 145 lbs, as his grappling diminishes against bigger opponents. Sterling has been reluctant to shoot takedowns, as seen against Sean O'Malley, and was knocked out. Kattar has 91% takedown defense in the UFC, stuffing attempts from wrestlers like Dan Ige and Josh Emmett. Cody believes Kattar's volume and power advantage will be key, and if he stuffs takedowns, he can outpoint Sterling. He also mentions Sterling's mentality of wanting to grind out boring fights, which may not impress judges in a hot Vegas crowd.

"I'm going to back up with you on that one and uh take Calvin cater is dog number well we got Yuri peta's so to speak dog number one but you want a real dog we'll go with Calvin ker …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor also picks Kattar with a cloud of question marks. He notes that Sterling is a creative takedown artist but moving up in weight against a big featherweight. Connor points out that wrestlers moving up rarely succeed, and Kattar's defensive wrestling has been solid. He also mentions that Kattar is a slow starter but has power and size advantages.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Connor notes the line movement.
"I'm going to take a Calvin cater as well with just a huge cloud of question marks floating around."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Calvin Kattar as a dog, citing his boxing advantage and takedown defense. He acknowledges Sterling's grappling threat but believes Kattar's size and striking can keep the fight standing. Vreeland is concerned about Kattar's injury layoff and Sterling's experience, but sees value in the underdog.

"I'll lean with Kattar"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it's a really good fight and he is excited to see how Aljamain Sterling bounces back from losing his bantamweight title now fighting at featherweight. He does not give a prediction.

"Aljamain Sterling versus Calvin Kattar that's a really good fight I'm very excited to see how Aljo bounces back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Kattar holds a striking advantage and will touch up Sterling from distance. He will shut down takedown attempts and batter Sterling on the feet, winning a decision. Sterling's featherweight debut will be tough.

decision
"I think we'll see Kar really touch up Alain Sterling from distance be able to Shu off off a couple of the takedown attempts and then really batter Sterling on the feet on route to a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul picks Kattar as a dog, citing the weight change for Sterling and Kattar's takedown defense. He notes that few have tried to wrestle Kattar, and those who did (Dan Ige, Josh Emmett) had little success. Paul thinks if Sterling can't get takedowns, it becomes a competitive standup fight where Kattar has more power. He also mentions Sterling's recent knockout loss and his apparent mental state, questioning his motivation. Paul believes Kattar can keep the fight standing and win a decision or even get a knockout.

"Calvin CER will be one for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Aljamain Sterling

The MMA Guru picks Aljamain Sterling to win, citing Kattar's long layoff and leg injury. He believes Sterling's grappling will be too much for Kattar, especially targeting the injured rear leg with single legs. He expects Sterling to either finish or ride out a decision.

"Al Jamaine Sterling the Funk Master is going to get it done he's going to show these featherweights what real grappling is."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Zane picks Kattar despite many question marks. He notes that Kattar is a big featherweight with power, and Sterling is moving up for the first time. Zane argues that wrestlers moving up rarely look their best, and Sterling's inefficient style may not translate well. He also points out that Kattar has faced few dedicated wrestlers, but Sterling's first fight at 145 could be a disadvantage.

Odds: Sterling opened -115, now -167; Kattar opened -110, now +149. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am gonna, I'm gonna take Kater. I am he's the, the guys that have beat him tend to be bigger punching or more deft range strikers who can actually just handle him there."
LOSS vs Arnold Allen
TKO (knee injury) R2 0:08 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Arnold Allen 0 14 of 58 24% 14 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Arnold Allen 0 14 of 57 24% 14 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
2 Arnold Allen 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Arnold Allen 14 of 58 24% 5 of 47 6 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 28 of 67 41% 21 of 55 2 of 5 5 of 7 27 of 62 0 of 0 1 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Arnold Allen 14 of 57 24% 5 of 46 6 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 27 of 65 41% 21 of 54 2 of 5 4 of 6 26 of 60 0 of 0 1 of 5
2 Arnold Allen 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Arnold Allen

Round 1
The two ranked fighters on this fight card – in terms of listings on Sherdog – come to blows in its main event, as impressive technical boxer Kattar (23-6, 7-4 UFC) throws down with the streaking Allen (18-1, 9-0 UFC), who has won all nine of his trips to the UFC cage. Whether he can go 10-0 and put himself on the shortlist for championship contention in the logjammed featherweight category, he will have to get through “The Boston Finisher” first. The stakes are high, and referee Herb Dean is bringing his A-game to the headliner. Gloves are gladly touched, and it’s on with the show. Both men hunt for their range as they face off in alternating stances, pushing out jabs that bump into the other. Allen scores first with a low kick, and he lands a second as Kattar skirts out of the way. Kattar splits the guard with a jab, and Allen ignores it to double down on the calf kick. The defenses are solid thus far, with low accuracy rates and very active blocks, and as a result, they do not sit down on anything of note. Allen scores a single straight left, and Kattar responds with a snapping jab. When Kattar looks to double up on his jab, Allen settles for two kicks including one to the side. Kattar rushes forward with a clean one-two, and Allen shakes it off and walks right into a low kick. Allen gives chase but hits nothing but air, and Kattar pokes with his toes on the midsection. Allen knocks his man a step back with a left hand, and when Kattar attempts to reply, he kicks the upper thigh. Allen has a left hand get around the guard, and he chains several punches together to shake Kattar up. As Kattar backs off, Allen picks it up briefly, but he lets go before Kattar can lean on heavy counters. Allen lands a one-two across the bow, and Kattar largely uses the jab to respond. Allen scores several left hands that get Kattar’s attention, and Kattar’s face has begun to turn red. Allen comfortably lands another left hand, and he stays moving and circles fast. Kattar leaps in the air with a kick and lands awkwardly, and his right knee blows out as he falls to the ground. Allen leaps on top to strike, and he moves to set up a brabo choke but cannot secure it before the round ends. It will be interesting to see if Kattar can make it out of his corner for the second frame given the obvious injury he suffered.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 2
Dean calls in the doctor before the round begins, and Kattar states that he is good to go. Kattar walks around gingerly but he has his balance and can continue. Allen marches forward, knowing what his clear path to victory is, and he lashes out.
“Almighty” unleashes one almighty leg kick to the lead leg of his opponent, and as Kattar attempts to check it, his right knee buckles and gives out beneath him. Kattar falls to the ground in agony and Allen does not go in for the kill as he knows the fight is over. Dean steps between them just to make sure,
and the medical staff races in immediately after the stoppage to tend to the downed Kattar. This is an extremely unfortunate ending to this featherweight headliner, and a difficult pill to swallow for the Brit, who notches his 10th UFC win in a row. Allen is crestfallen, not just because his opponent suffered an injury, but because he states that he does not want to win like that. In his post-fight interview, Allen is put on the spot by commentator Michael Bisping, in which he calls for an interim title shot should champ Alexander Volkanovski move up in weight and be away from the division for a time. He does not call for a specific opponent, although potential options could include Josh Emmett or Yair Rodriguez. If that should come together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Arnold Allen def. Calvin Kattar R2 0:08 via TKO (Knee Injury)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by decision. He argues that Kattar's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen, who has shown low output and cardio issues in three-round fights. He notes that Kattar has never been knocked down and has gone five rounds in his last four fights, while Allen has never seen a fourth round. He believes Allen will need to hurt Kattar to win, which is unlikely given Kattar's durability.

Kattar wins by decision
"give me catering to win here and I would not be shocked if he finished Arnold Allen late but I'll say decision win for Calvin kator"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody argues that Arnold Allen is a low-output fighter who has been carried by close decisions and flashy finishes against declining competition. He points to Allen's low significant strike totals in many fights and notes that Calvin Kattar has landed over 100 significant strikes in his last four fights, has a cast-iron chin, and superior technical boxing and work rate. Cody expects Kattar's volume and five-round experience to wear Allen down over the distance, likely resulting in a close decision win.

"I gotta go with kader I think that the strike accumulation is going to wear off down the end and again Arnold Allen good wins but when you look at them he's not competing at the same level as Calvin …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Daniel Levi picks Arnold Allen, citing his versatility, southpaw stance with an outside calf kick, and ability to win early rounds. He notes Allen's experience against tough competition and his own money train on Allen. He respects Kattar's durability and iron will but questions the cumulative damage from recent fights. He got Allen at +110 and is confident in the pick, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if Allen fatigues.

Bet at +110, 2 units. Would not bet at -125. Mentions Allen as one of his money trains.
"I'm betting on Arnold Allen firstly I got it at plus 110 it's currently minus 125. I did my job in terms of getting the best of the line."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Arnold Allen

Jacob picks Arnold Allen but is scared to death. He notes Allen's counter-striking and wrestling should be key, but Kattar is a better boxer and can mix in wrestling. Jacob worries about Allen facing adversity for the first time. He calls it a coin flip.

"I'm going to pick Arnold out in this matchup but I'm scared to death"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Kattar's volume and combination striking will be too much for Allen, who tends to be low-volume and waits for moments. Allen's explosive win over Hooker was against a compromised opponent. Kattar has five-round experience and should outwork Allen over 25 minutes. The plus money on Kattar is excellent value.

Kattar by decision
"give me Calvin cater cater by decision but the fact that we can get him around plus 100 plus 105 his money line is fine here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody that volume is the deciding factor, noting that Kattar is obscenely durable and has five-round experience. He mentions a prop on Prize Picks for Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns, expecting Allen to mix in wrestling but not being a great wrestler. Paul says he'll probably end up with money on Calvin Kattar on Saturday, indicating a betting interest.

Prize Picks: Arnold Allen over 0.5 takedowns
"I'm total agreement that I think it really comes down to like you know who's throwing more over the course of five rounds and we've seen kater do it over the court like in five round fights"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar over Arnold Allen, despite expecting Allen to look great early and possibly break Kattar's nose. He doubts Allen's finishing ability and notes Allen tends to slow down in later rounds, as seen against Sadiq Yusuff. He believes Kattar's experience fighting with a broken nose and his body work will pay off, predicting Kattar wins rounds 3-5 via decision or late TKO.

"I'm going with Calvin kater here I think he's gonna get busted up in the first round broken nose... but if Emmett can't KO you I don't think Arnold Allen can"
LOSS vs Josh Emmett
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 130 of 375 34% 131 of 376 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 107 of 332 32% 107 of 332 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 14 of 39 35% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Josh Emmett 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 19 of 66 28% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 41 of 106 38% 41 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 80 26% 21 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Josh Emmett 0 34 of 86 39% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 130 of 375 34% 114 of 351 15 of 23 1 of 1 130 of 375 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 107 of 332 32% 73 of 286 26 of 37 8 of 9 106 of 330 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 39 35% 12 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 11 of 35 31% 8 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 22 of 78 28% 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 26 of 73 35% 19 of 63 6 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 19 of 66 28% 18 of 62 1 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 27 of 77 35% 18 of 65 8 of 11 1 of 1 27 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 41 of 106 38% 35 of 98 6 of 8 0 of 0 41 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 21 of 80 26% 13 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 34 of 86 39% 29 of 79 5 of 7 0 of 0 34 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 22 of 67 32% 15 of 58 6 of 7 1 of 2 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

"i do like calvin qatar to win with his footwork and his technique but it's not completely out of the question that calvin vs emmett looks like font vs vera"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

fourth round knockout
"I like calvin keator to win i like common cater i'll say to win bye i'll say fourth round knockout for calvin keator"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Calvin Kattar by decision
"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

dog or pass situation; Kattar -230 is too high; Emmett +195 is tempting
"i lean cater it's just minus 250 odds are not indicative of a coin flip fight so i see this at the betting window being a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

third round tko
"i'm going with cater over emmett... i see calvin kater getting this one done by third round tko"
WIN vs Giga Chikadze
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–44) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 1 144 of 402 35% 157 of 418 2 of 7 28% 1 1 3:42
Giga Chikadze 0 128 of 347 36% 129 of 348 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 4 of 7 57% 17 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 1 3:19
Giga Chikadze 0 8 of 19 42% 9 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
2 Calvin Kattar 0 28 of 81 34% 28 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:08
Giga Chikadze 0 38 of 99 38% 38 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Giga Chikadze 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Calvin Kattar 0 36 of 102 35% 36 of 102 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:02
Giga Chikadze 0 28 of 70 40% 28 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Calvin Kattar 1 51 of 125 40% 51 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Giga Chikadze 0 32 of 92 34% 32 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 144 of 402 35% 127 of 369 13 of 28 4 of 5 135 of 390 2 of 2 7 of 10
Giga Chikadze 128 of 347 36% 94 of 297 27 of 41 7 of 9 127 of 344 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 4 of 7 57% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
Giga Chikadze 8 of 19 42% 4 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 28 of 81 34% 26 of 77 2 of 3 0 of 1 23 of 75 2 of 2 3 of 4
Giga Chikadze 38 of 99 38% 30 of 89 8 of 10 0 of 0 38 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 25 of 87 28% 22 of 78 3 of 9 0 of 0 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 22 of 67 32% 18 of 61 1 of 2 3 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Calvin Kattar 36 of 102 35% 32 of 94 3 of 7 1 of 1 36 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Giga Chikadze 28 of 70 40% 20 of 57 6 of 11 2 of 2 27 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0
5 Calvin Kattar 51 of 125 40% 45 of 115 5 of 9 1 of 1 48 of 121 0 of 0 3 of 4
Giga Chikadze 32 of 92 34% 22 of 76 10 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Giga Chikadze

Round 1
The main event kicks off, with referee Keith Peterson having banished all vestiges of nonsense from the premises by means of ancient, arcane and forbidden magic. The first strike of the fight is a right outside leg kick by Chikadze. He lands another, then a front kick to the chin. Kattar is coming forward, switching stances and throwing jabs from both sides. Chikadze is backpedaling and using lateral movement to avoid being backed into the fence. Chikadze lands a low kick, followed by a kick to the body. Kattar times the next one and explodes forward for a huge takedown. Kattar lands in half guard. Two minutes gone in the round, and Kattar is heavy on top, denying a hip escape. Kattar looking to pass to side control, but can’t. Chikadze stuffs him back to a deep half guard. Kattar briefly contemplates isolating the far arm, but Chikadze is active with his hips and Kattar is forced to hold him down. Chikadze grabs a guillotine, but Kattar hops to the opposite side. Chikadze sweeps to top, but Kattar has an arm-triangle from the bottom and moves to the back. Kattar is working with a body triangle from the back, throwing punches as the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 2
Chikadze lands a solid body kick. Kattar comes into punching range and Chikadze lands a pair of hooks to the body, followed by a left kick. Kattar counters a body kick with a sharp left hand. Kattar is still coming forward relentlessly, switching stances frequently, and Chikadze is having trouble adjusting, even as he lands. Kattar lands a hard right hook that hurts Chikadze. Kattar tries dropping for a single leg, but Chikadze evades it easily. Kattar lands a two-punch combination, followed by a step-in elbow. Chikadze retreats, and Kattar keeps the pressure on. Under a minute left, and “The Boston Finisher” has all the momentum. Chikadze lands a pair of punches, and Kattar responds with a spinning back elbow that lands flush. Kattar lands a takedown at the 10-second clapper and nails Chikadze with a couple of punches before he can stand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 3
Kattar continues to come forward, pressuring Chikadze, and lands a one-two. Kattar is in control, and Chikadze is starting to look tired, discouraged or both. Chikadze lands an outside calf kick, then another. Kattar lands a right cross, and Chikadze whiffs on a counter. Kattar drops for a single-leg and chases Chikadze all the way across the Octagon with it, where the Georgian uses a fence grab to steady himself, lets it go quickly, but not before it succeeds in foiling the takedown. Under two minutes left and they’re standing in the center of the cage again. Kattar’s jab is busting Chikadze up. Chikadze lands a pair of hard punches, but stumbles afterward, off-balance or just fatigued. Kattar comes forward with 30 seconds left and throws a one-two and a body kick. Chikadze catches Kattar with a flush right and takes another back elbow for his trouble, right before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 4
The main event rounds open up with both men’s face showing wear, but Chikadze’s more so. Kattar walks him down and lands a jab. And another. Chikadze denies a takedown attempt against the cage. Kattar’s jab is once again right in Chikadze’s face as the Bostonian moves forward. Kattar throws another step-in elbow. Chikadze throws a body kick, but Kattar punishes him with a three-punch combo. Halfway through the round, Kattar catches a kick and marches forward, throwing punches while holding the leg. Chikadze lands a solid straight left, but the volume advantage is definitely with Kattar. They land simultaneous jabs. Kattar has busted the right eye of Chikadze badly, cuts above as well as below. The horn sounds on another easy Kattar round.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar

Round 5
The final round begins as the other four did, with Kattar marching forward and cutting off the cage, but Chikadze explodes forward and tags him with a flurry of punches. Kattar keeps coming, though, and lands his own relentless volley of jabs. Chikadze lands a body kick, but Kattar is just overwhelming him. Kattar lands a high kick of his own. Chikadze comes forward, and Kattar counters with elbow strikes from both sides, then throws a kick up the middle. The round hits its halfway point, and Chikadze is still doing his best to find the finish he clearly knows he needs, but Kattar is far fresher and answering everything with two or more strikes to one. Kattar begins looking for bigger single shots on the flagging Chikadze, and lands a couple, leaving the Georgian stumbling backward. Kattar lands another spinning back elbow. Chikadze throws a kick up the middle. Under 30 seconds left and both men are still looking for the knockout. Kattar drops Chikadze with an elbow strike with under 10 seconds left, and referee Peterson looks on closely as he follows up with punches, but the round expires. Complete bell-to-bell performance by Calvin Kattar.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kattar (50-45 Kattar)

The Official Result
Calvin Kattar def. Giga Chikadze via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Angelo picks Chikadze as the safe pick, citing his phenomenal striking, kicks, and range management. He notes Kattar is a live underdog with excellent boxing and a wrestling background that could pose problems if he pressures. He mentions possibly sprinkling a bet on Kattar.

May sprinkle a bet on Kattar as underdog.
"geek is the pick but that's a safe pick calvin qatar is very live here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Big Brady admits he has been a Giga Chikadze hater but acknowledges Giga's improvements, especially his cardio in the Omar Morales fight. He notes Giga has never seen the fourth or fifth round and has slowed down in the past, while Calvin Kattar has a steel chin and absorbs strikes. Brady expects Giga to win the first three rounds and take a decision, but is hesitant due to the five-round distance and Kattar's durability. He does not like the moneyline at -233 and would not bet it.

"I'm going to say giga chicago does win this fight i'm going to say he does win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Cody picks Giga Chikadze, emphasizing his clean kickboxing and ability to dictate range with kicks. He notes Kattar struggles against longer opponents and that Giga's cardio looked solid in recent fights. He worries about Giga's takedown defense but doubts Kattar will wrestle. He suggests betting Kattar live after the second or third round if he survives the early onslaught.

Consider hedging on Kattar after round 2 or 3 if he survives
"as far as striker versus striker goes gotta go with the better striker better striker is giga just don't love the price tag"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Daniel Levi picks Giga Chikadze to win and be the first to finish Calvin Kattar via strikes. He argues that Kattar is a one-dimensional boxer with a negative strike differential, and that Giga's diverse striking—especially body kicks and head kicks—will be too much. He notes Giga has improved his cardio and grappling, citing his anaconda attempt on Barboza and brown belt in jiu-jitsu. Levi acknowledges Kattar's toughness and right hand but believes Giga's precision and power will prevail. He placed 5 units on Giga at -215.

5 units at -215
"I think giga chikazi is going to be the first man in mma history to finish calvin kater via strikes and i think he's going to open a lot of eyes so yeah give me giga chikazi i put five …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The host believes Giga Chikadze's kick-heavy game plan will be the key to victory, targeting Calvin Kattar's legs which have historically been a weakness. He notes that Kattar is the better technical boxer, but Chikadze's diverse kicking attacks (leg, body, head) and ability to switch targets will slow Kattar down. The host is confident Chikadze can implement this strategy effectively, though he acknowledges the fight could go the distance if Kattar absorbs the kicks and keeps moving forward. He ultimately picks Chikadze by decision, but also considers an inside-the-distance finish possible.

Decision prop at +325, over 2.5 rounds at -135 mentioned as possible bets.
"i'll go to kaze... i'm stuck between decision and inside the distance honestly... i'm gonna go chicago just staying methodical staying cerebral as well and just staying on the outside letting those leg kicks go"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

Paul leans toward Giga Chikadze as the better striker, noting that if the fight stays at kicking range, Kattar will get torn up. He acknowledges Kattar's boxing and pressure but believes Giga's kicks and range control are decisive. He mentions the line is close to accurate but doesn't love the -235 price. He suggests Kattar might have a path via wrestling, but considers it unlikely.

"if this fight takes place at kicking range uh you got to imagine that calvin kater is going to get torn up completely"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Giga Chikadze

The MMA Guru picks Giga Chikadze to win by decision, citing Chikadze's superior kicking game and Kattar's well-known vulnerability to leg kicks, as exposed by Renato Moicano. He notes that Kattar is a slow starter who struggles with kicks, and coming off a year-long layoff after taking massive damage against Max Holloway, he expects Kattar to be even more hesitant early. Chikadze's activity (three fights in the past year) and improved takedown defense are also factors, as Kattar is unlikely to wrestle. However, he acknowledges Kattar is a good underdog and could pull off an upset if he survives the early kicking onslaught.

Kattar is a good underdog at nearly 2-to-1 odds; Chikadze is a 2-to-1 favorite. Prediction: Chikadze by decision (49-46).
"i'm gonna go with the gigachicken but don't be surprised if qatar gets the upset man"
LOSS vs Max Holloway
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–43, 50–42) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Holloway vs. Kattar · Jan 16, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Holloway 0 445 of 744 59% 447 of 746 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Calvin Kattar 0 133 of 283 47% 134 of 284 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Holloway 0 56 of 108 51% 56 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Max Holloway 0 89 of 164 54% 89 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 20 of 48 41% 20 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Max Holloway 0 75 of 139 53% 77 of 141 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Calvin Kattar 0 29 of 59 49% 30 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Max Holloway 0 141 of 191 73% 141 of 191 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:14
Calvin Kattar 0 34 of 71 47% 34 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
5 Max Holloway 0 84 of 142 59% 84 of 142 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 58 44% 26 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Holloway 445 of 744 59% 274 of 553 117 of 133 54 of 58 439 of 737 6 of 7 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 133 of 283 47% 99 of 237 16 of 23 18 of 23 129 of 279 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Holloway 56 of 108 51% 30 of 75 15 of 20 11 of 13 56 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 24 of 47 51% 13 of 34 2 of 2 9 of 11 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Max Holloway 89 of 164 54% 53 of 127 25 of 25 11 of 12 87 of 161 2 of 3 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 20 of 48 41% 14 of 41 4 of 5 2 of 2 19 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Max Holloway 75 of 139 53% 53 of 111 13 of 19 9 of 9 73 of 137 2 of 2 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 29 of 59 49% 25 of 51 3 of 5 1 of 3 28 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Max Holloway 141 of 191 73% 89 of 135 45 of 48 7 of 8 139 of 189 2 of 2 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 34 of 71 47% 27 of 63 5 of 6 2 of 2 32 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Max Holloway 84 of 142 59% 49 of 105 19 of 21 16 of 16 84 of 142 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 26 of 58 44% 20 of 48 2 of 5 4 of 5 26 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Max Holloway

Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by decision. He notes that Holloway has only lost to the best (Volkanovski, Poirier, McGregor) and that Kattar is a big step up in competition. He highlights Kattar's poor striking defense, absorbing more than he lands (5.66 vs 5.01), which is a red flag against Holloway's volume. He also mentions Holloway's motivation after two losses and that he looked great in his last fight. He believes Kattar's only path is a knockout, but Holloway hasn't been knocked out in 27 fights.

"i'm going to take max holloway to win here by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar for the upset, citing Kattar's power and ability to land hard shots that could sway judges. He notes Holloway's ego and emotional issues may have cost him the Volk rematch, and that Holloway absorbs many head strikes. He believes Kattar doesn't need to match volume but land the cleaner, harder shots over five rounds.

"i'm gonna go with calvin uh for the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Kattar is the more technical striker with crisp hands and a piston-like jab. He matches Holloway in height and reach, which neutralizes Holloway's typical range advantage. Holloway has been hurt in past fights and Kattar has the power to finish. Kattar's cardio held up in a five-round fight against Dan Ige, and his New England Cartel camp is on a hot streak. The main concern is Holloway's volume, but Kattar's cleaner striking should win rounds.

Kattar by decision is the primary pick, but a finish is possible given Holloway's durability questions.
"I like cater here I wouldn't even be surprised if he gets a knockout too because holloway's been hurt a lot"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Max Holloway

The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Calvin Kattar, citing Holloway's improved kicking game, five-round experience, and youth. He notes Kattar's broken nose as a major vulnerability, expecting Holloway to target it with jabs. He predicts Holloway will win four rounds to one, with Kattar taking the first round before Holloway makes adjustments. He also questions Kattar's KO power, noting he hasn't faced a chin like Holloway's.

"i just see max holloway winning himself a fun exciting competitive decision four rounds to one i think qatar wins the first round"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige · Jul 16, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 105 of 260 40% 107 of 262 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Dan Ige 0 84 of 218 38% 87 of 221 0 of 9 0% 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 20 of 46 43% 20 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:39
Dan Ige 0 13 of 36 36% 16 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 15 of 39 38% 15 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 57 36% 22 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Dan Ige 0 16 of 36 44% 16 of 36 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:03
5 Calvin Kattar 0 28 of 55 50% 29 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 105 of 260 40% 70 of 211 19 of 32 16 of 17 95 of 236 1 of 3 9 of 21
Dan Ige 84 of 218 38% 37 of 150 30 of 46 17 of 22 82 of 216 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 20 of 46 43% 11 of 34 9 of 11 0 of 1 17 of 38 0 of 0 3 of 8
Dan Ige 13 of 36 36% 7 of 26 4 of 7 2 of 3 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 15 of 39 38% 13 of 34 2 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Ige 18 of 45 40% 7 of 32 6 of 7 5 of 6 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 21 of 63 33% 14 of 52 3 of 7 4 of 4 21 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Ige 20 of 49 40% 7 of 29 8 of 15 5 of 5 20 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Calvin Kattar 21 of 57 36% 12 of 47 2 of 3 7 of 7 18 of 51 0 of 1 3 of 5
Dan Ige 16 of 36 44% 10 of 27 4 of 6 2 of 3 14 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Calvin Kattar 28 of 55 50% 20 of 44 3 of 6 5 of 5 24 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 8
Dan Ige 17 of 52 32% 6 of 36 8 of 11 3 of 5 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win, noting that the five-round fight favors Kattar's superior cardio. He believes Dan Ige will struggle to get takedowns due to Kattar's 77% takedown defense, and that Ige's cardio is questionable even in three-round fights. He predicts a finish in the fourth or fifth round, calling Kattar the 'Boston Finisher' and referencing his nasty elbow in his last fight.

Parlayed Kattar with Khamzat Chimaev at around -110; notes Kattar's line moved from -240 to -310
"I parlayed Kamara Oman with something on this card and that somebody is Calvin cater and I like that partly a lot"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi picks Calvin Kattar to finish Dan Ige, citing Kattar's best hands in the division and his ability to maintain pressure over five rounds. He believes Ige may have early success but Kattar will take over and knock him out, possibly earning a title shot.

by knockout
"I got Calvin by knockout you know at some point in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The Guru picks Calvin Kattar, highlighting his impressive wins over Jeremy Stephens, Josh Emmett, Shane Burgos, and Ricardo Lamas. He believes Kattar's jab and power will be key, and that Dan Ige lacks the power to knock him out. He predicts Kattar may lose the first round due to Ige's volume but will adjust and land a big shot for a TKO in round 2. He also notes Ige's underrated grappling but thinks Kattar's takedown defense is solid.

TKO round 2
"I think Calvin Qatar goes out there puts hands on Danny gay probably loses the first round but when he covers up he's watching the entire time Calvin Qatar's got a slick jab I think he watches the entire first …"
Steve Garcia - Fight History
SCHED vs Diego Lopes
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

AJ is leaning towards Steve Garcia, citing Garcia's terrifying hands and cardio to go three hard rounds. He thinks Garcia could outstrike Lopes and notes that Lopes is not a grapple smotherer, making it hard for him to control Garcia. He also mentions Garcia's chin and finishing ability.

"I think I'm gonna end up going Steve Garcia. I won't lie to you guys."
WIN vs David Onama
KO R1 3:34 · UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Nov 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 33 of 62 53% 43 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
David Onama 0 2 of 16 12% 2 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 33 of 62 53% 28 of 56 5 of 6 0 of 0 26 of 52 5 of 7 2 of 3
David Onama 2 of 16 12% 1 of 14 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. David Onama
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-130); Onama (+110)

Round 1
It’s time for the main event, a ranked featherweight five-rounder that should be a banger. After what has happened so far tonight, one can hope that Herb Dean can keep things legitimate because there have been some
serious
questions of integrity tonight. Garcia (18-5, 7-2 UFC) and Onama (14-2, 6-2 UFC) are about to let their hands go, and before they do, Dean brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions. Will they follow them? Who the heck knows.
The main event opens with a fist bump from the athletes. The featherweights are jittery and trying to figure things out early, so Garcia breaks that silence about 15 seconds in with a clubbing right hand. He walks Onama down, peppering him with his jab and follow-up left hook. Onama bounces off the fence, so Garcia chases him down with a bouquet of blistering left hands. Garcia mixes up body shots, and he snaps out a jab to intercept a front kick. Garcia reaches out with a left hook, shaking Onama up, and he continues to chain together his lefts. Onama fires back when he back, but Garcia’s volume and looping lefts are getting Onama’s attention time and time again.
Garcia steps in behind a left hand, and Onama is tough but quickly becoming a heavy bag. Garcia beats his man to the punch with a combo featuring his left, and when Onama bounces back up, Garcia comes right after him. “Mean Machine” does not let Onama off the hook, blasting him with a number of left hands that knock him from one side of the cage to another. Garcia lets fly a head kick as well, and he continues to rush at “Silent Assassin” with a barrage of brutal lefts. Onama fires back and shreds open a cut on Garcia’s eyebrow, but Garcia is a man on a mission and wants to finish the job.
Garcia’s offense wilts Onama, bending him over with a liver kick. He sees his opening to put the Factory X fighter away and takes it, swarming him with punches that topple Onama to the floor. From there, Garcia keeps pounding away as Onama turtles up, and only a few hammerfists are needed for “Mean Machine” to seal the deal.
Onama protests when Dean calls a halt to the match, but he soon realizes that he will not be convincing anyone after his performance. This was one-way traffic for the Jackson-Wink fighter, who prevails in under four minutes and punches his ticket to greater things coming soon. While the triumphant man calls out Max Holloway for the BMF belt, he may have to look elsewhere to climb the ladder before getting there. When he does compete next, however, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. David Onama R1 3:34 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia, citing his awkward, lurching movement and sheer size for the weight class as problematic for David Onama. He notes Garcia's power and forward pressure, but acknowledges Onama is faster and more technical. He mentions Garcia has been knocked out before, while Onama hasn't, but doesn't see Onama knocking him out. He calls it a close competitive fight and leans Garcia.

"I do like Steve Garcia in this match-up because I think he has... awkward enough that it can be a problem."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

Big Brady leans toward David Onama, citing Steve Garcia's tendency to leave openings and get dropped, as seen in fights against Charlie Ontiveros and Maheshate. He acknowledges Garcia hits hard and is all violence, but believes Onama is more durable and can take advantage. He predicts a second-round knockout for Onama.

second round knockout, plus 110 underdog
"I'm going to I'm going to lean with Oama just because I can't get the the Antivero's fight out of my head. ... I'll actually go Oama to win this fight. I'll take on to win this fight by second …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
David Onama

Connor picks Onama, reasoning that Garcia's losses are worse than Onama's, with more randomness. He notes that Onama has lost to wild brawlers like Nate Landwehr and Mason Jones, which could be Steve Garcia, but those were exhausting fights. He thinks Onama may find success with wrestling and is a better athlete than Garcia's recent opponents.

"I think I am going to pick David Onama here. I think if we're doing some MMA math Steve Garcia's losses are worse than David Onama's."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
David Onama

Lucrative James picks David Onama to win by knockout, but he is not confident. He notes that both fighters have questionable chins and get hurt often, but Onama has never been finished while Garcia has been knocked out before. He also mentions Onama's superior training partners, including Justin Gaethje, and his wrestling upside as potential advantages. However, he emphasizes that this is a pick'em fight and he will not bet the moneyline, instead looking at under props.

under 1.5 rounds, under 2.5 rounds, fight ends by KO
"I'm going to pick David Oama to get the knockout just because I mean there's no real rhyme or reason to it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 31, 2025 (1 day before fight)
David Onama

The fight is a coin flip; whoever lands the big punch first wins. The host leans slightly to Onama's speed and more tools, thinking he will land a big shot and put Garcia away. But it could easily go the other way, so confidence is low.

inside the distance
"I have to lean ever so slightly to the speed and more tools for the David Onam side. I think it's just a matter of time before he lands that big shot on Garcia and puts him away. ... I …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent impressive wins over Melquizael Costa, Kyle Nelson, and Calvin Kattar. He believes Garcia's pressure and volume will break David Onama, who has struggled against similar styles (e.g., Romero). He notes Onama's lack of consistent finishes and potential work ethic issues. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

second or third round TKO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia here. I'm glad I remembered that Romero fight of Onama because that was a real worrying look."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia because he has seen Onama get hurt badly and fail to focus from the start. He notes that if Garcia can't knock Onama out, it will be a wild war, but he is more willing to believe Onama will never find comfort against Garcia than that Onama can lock Garcia down. He acknowledges the high chaos and randomness in both fighters' careers.

"I think I'm gonna take Garcia just because I have seen Onama get hurt so bad, yeah, and I have seen him not focus on having the right fight from the jump."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 123 21% 26 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 85 of 250 34% 85 of 250 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Calvin Kattar 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 71 30% 22 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Calvin Kattar 0 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steve Garcia 0 32 of 87 36% 32 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Calvin Kattar 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Steve Garcia 1 31 of 92 33% 31 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Calvin Kattar 26 of 123 21% 21 of 116 3 of 5 2 of 2 26 of 123 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 85 of 250 34% 52 of 208 23 of 29 10 of 13 85 of 249 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Calvin Kattar 8 of 26 30% 4 of 22 2 of 2 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 22 of 71 30% 11 of 53 5 of 10 6 of 8 22 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Calvin Kattar 5 of 47 10% 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 32 of 87 36% 19 of 72 10 of 11 3 of 4 32 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Calvin Kattar 13 of 50 26% 12 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steve Garcia 31 of 92 33% 22 of 83 8 of 8 1 of 1 31 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Calvin Kattar vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-120); Kattar (+100)

Round 1
On a career-long four-fight skid, Kattar (23-9, 7-7 UFC) has not gotten his hand raised since outdueling Giga Chikadze in 2022. Possibly in the later stages of his career at 37 years old, he is being matched up against a dangerous brawler in Garcia (17-5, 6-2 UFC) who is knocking on the door of ludicrous status should he clock “The Boston Finisher.” Referee Jason Herzog understands his assignment, and the fighters do too, as they touch gloves to engage.
The two featherweight strikers measure one another in the early going, with Garcia eventually leading the dance with a looping pair of punches and some awkward kicks to any target he can find. Kattar ducks and swings hard on an overhand right counter that zips right past the Jackson-Wink representative. Garcia is in the driver’s seat but his connect rate remains low a minute in. Garcia wraps a right around the guard, but his left goes wide. Woots, whoops and cries rain down throughout the Bridgestone Arena, and Garcia silences them with a long punch combination and three head kicks in a row. Kattar defends well but stumbles, and he gets back to his feet and takes a left hand on the jaw. Garcia scores with a left hand and kicks after it.
Katter misses with a huge left hand, and Garcia races through it and lands a combination on Kattar’s face. Kattar is stuck not hitting anything of note, while Garcia is scoring to the head, body and legs. Garcia spins with a sudden wheel kick, and Kattar shells up but his nose takes the brunt of it. Kattar steps in with an elbow on the chin after Garcia hits him a few times, and he partially connects with a lead hook. Garcia forces Kattar to constantly defend himself, and his power drives “The Boston Finisher” back a few steps. Kattar starts to put his jab together, and he is answered with a Jackson-Wink-style oblique kick to the knee. One more kick to the lead leg ends the tepid round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Both featherweights trade right hands as the round begins, and Garcia stays in Kattar’s face but walks into a left hand on the jaw. Garcia shrugs it off and bounces around before settling down, planting a one-two on Kattar’s visage. Kattar’s looping punches continue to miss, as he is telegraphing his big right and Garcia is able to dodge or stay away from them. Garcia walks Kattar down, spinning with a clean back kick to the ribs, and he drives home several rib-roasters as well. This fires up Kattar, who cracks the favorite. Garcia gives it right back, happy to be getting the brawl he was seeking. Garcia beats Kattar to the jab time and time again.
Kattar employs a step-in elbow that graces Garcia’s melon, and Garcia gives him back several body shots to think about. Garcia dips and dodges the oncoming fire to crack Kattar with a huge left, smashing Kattar’s nose and forcing Kattar to paw at it. Garcia strikes the body when he sees an opening, and he skips forward to deliver two lefts on the chin. Garcia misses a right and left hook by a matter of inches, and he kicks the front of Kattar’s thigh to back him off. The body work from Garcia is getting Kattar to drop his hands, and he winds up with a bomb of a left that buzzes past the longtime vet. Garcia keeps doing work until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia immediately engages to start the last round, putting hands in Kattar’s face early and often. A heavy left hand drives Kattar back a ways, and he times a head kick and a spinning back fist that Garcia is able to defend. Kattar hops back and forth switching stances, but he does not engage and is just backpedaling when Garcia comes at him. Garcia reaches him with a left hand, and he loads up a subsequent bomb that nearly separates Kattar from his senses. Kattar bounces off the fence to stay afloat, and he clinches Garcia to get his head right. Garcia breaks off and chases the wounded man down, stabbing body kicks and following with liver punches that draw reactions almost every time he connects. Garcia fearlessly walks “The Boston Finisher” down, hurling one-twos and any open strike he can lob. Garcia tries for two clubbing lefts that do not get through, and he parries a front kick and pushes a left hand down the pipe.
Kattar appears to have recovered, but Garcia is not about to let him of the hook and hacks at him with a tomahawk elbow. Garcia kicks Kattar’s leg out, and he lets him back up to swing heavy leather. Kattar bites down on his mouthpiece and walks into a left hand, and he spins with an elbow that bangs square into Garcia’s temple. Garcia, blood now streaking from the bridge of his nose, boots Kattar upside the head and follows him with a left hand. He pushes Kattar back and pops him with a front kick, staying up close and looping lefts. Kattar stands him up with a right hand, and he strikes with a knee and a spinning back fist that both get part of the betting favorite. Garcia tosses windmills, and he waits for Kattar to spin so he can blast him when he plants. Garcia lets loose with a head kick and a spinning wheel kick, and Kattar knocks him back with a fierce overhand right. The two trade last strikes until time expires, and Garcia’s knockout streak has officially ended. Despite that, he still has soundly beaten a legitimate force at featherweight, and has announced himself as a new contender.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Calvin Kattar via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.
"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout
"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."
WIN vs Kyle Nelson
TKO (elbows and punches) R1 3:59 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 22 of 37 59% 39 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:36
Kyle Nelson 0 1 of 2 50% 31 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 22 of 37 59% 20 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 34
Kyle Nelson 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson (148.5: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-192), Nelson (+160)

Round 1
Garcia (16-5, 5-2 UFC) is hungry, and he wants to share his lunch of knuckle sandwiches as the short-notice substitute against Nelson (16-5-1, 4-4-1 UFC). Both men come into this pairing on win streaks, so someone’s momentum is about to come to a grinding halt. Garcia has notably recorded four straight knockouts, a rarity for the weight class. This bout will officially take place at 149 pounds due to the Canadian missing weight, but that should not preclude the two from slugging it out as expected. Gloves are not touched under the watchful eye of referee Mark Smith, and instead they want to fight. Garcia lets fly a kick and a few punches, and he gets pushed back to the wall and trips. Nelson jumps on top to take Garcia’s back in a hurry, and he gets both hooks in without effort. Garcia hand-fights to prevent Nelson from setting up a submission, so the Canadian smacks him in the forehead several times. Nelson tries to set up the body triangle, but Garcia is able to fight off the first setup while he twists to one side and uses two-on-one wrist control. Garcia explodes to spin around, and he falls into an armbar. Garcia unloads with punches with his free arm, and he strikes his way out of the submission and lets Nelson have it with an onslaught of punches and elbows. Nelson turns to his side and shells up, and he slows Garcia down. Garcia elects to grind his elbow on the cheek, and he thumps it down every so often. Garcia slams down a few punches, and he nails Nelson with an elbow that makes Nelson turn to turtle up. As Garcia unleashes a fury, Nelson keeps his wits about him and kicks off Garcia to force him upright. Garcia leaps down and elbows Nelson in the back of the head, and a lump develops in a hurry. Nelson sits up with his back to the cage, and Garcia rails him with an elbow that makes Nelson crumble to his side. Garcia releases a final flurry of elbows and punches, and Smith sees that Nelson is no longer defending himself and intervenes. Nelson tries to stand back up after the fight has been called off, and Smith is there to make sure he does not fall over. This is a statement performance for the ultraviolent Garcia, who has earned five straight knockouts and pounds his way into contender status.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Kyle Nelson R1 3:59 via TKO (Elbows and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he hits very hard, has good wrestling, and is on a four-fight knockout streak. However, he is hesitant because Kyle Nelson has been looking good lately and has power and toughness. He plans to have very little exposure on this fight if he bets.

Angelo says he will bet a very small amount if he bets on Steve Garcia.
"I think Steve Garcia wins but I'm not that confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Big Brady picks Steve Garcia to win by knockout in round one. He highlights Garcia's four-fight knockout streak and his dog mentality, but acknowledges Garcia gets dropped often. Brady thinks Garcia will get dropped but get back up and finish Nelson. He favors Garcia more as the fight goes into later rounds.

round 1 KO
"Steve Garcia wins this fight I take him to Win It by knockout but I think somebody's getting served in this one Garcia round one KO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Cody picks Nelson on the moneyline, citing Garcia's poor chin and tendency to get dropped, while Nelson has improved cardio, wrestling, and durability. He notes Garcia's wins are often against tired or compromised opponents, and that Nelson's pressure and pace can overwhelm Garcia. He sees value at plus money and is confident Nelson can win.

Nelson by decision +1000 (tempting)
"I'm going to go call Nelson money line with the plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel acknowledges Kyle Nelson's improved style but thinks Garcia's kill-or-be-killed pressure will force Nelson to fight, potentially bringing back his old issues. He admits he hasn't been good at predicting the new Kyle Nelson, but he picks Garcia to extend his knockout streak. He notes Garcia is a killer who either knocks you out or gets knocked out.

"I'll pick Steve Garcia here. I think that Steve Garcia is gonna make this guy fight then we're gonna see the old tencies come back from Kyle Nelson and I think that Steve Garcia is gonna extend his kill streak."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is on a four-fight KO streak and has awkward angles that could trouble Nelson. Nelson is also on a roll but Garcia's power is a threat. The under 1.5 rounds is the preferred bet, as Garcia tends to finish early. Garcia by first-round KO is the pick.

Under 1.5 rounds; Garcia by first-round KO
"the under one and a half is where I will put my money here... I'm going to go Garcia Garcia by first round knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Nelson

Paul likes the over 1.5 rounds at +140, believing Nelson's improved cardio and fight IQ will avoid an early knockout. He thinks Nelson can make it competitive and potentially win a decision. He is not confident in betting Garcia at nearly -200, so he leans Nelson but prefers the over prop.

over 1.5 rounds +140 (already bet), may take more if number grows
"I like the over one and a half from this fight I know st's been a oneman rcking crew absolutely knocking out everyone he's got P power in his hands but I feel like seven and a half minutes Kyle …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson, citing a bias against Canadian men. He notes Garcia's weird look as an advantage and his training at Jackson Wink and Soul Focus. He mentions Garcia has beaten good opponents like Melquizael Costa and Saimon Oliveira, but was finished by Chase Hooper. He predicts a decision or KO win.

decision or KO
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Kyle Nelson... I've got Steve Garcia getting this one done by decision or KO"
WIN vs SeungWoo Choi
TKO (punches) R1 1:36 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 15 of 27 55% 18 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
SeungWoo Choi 0 9 of 15 60% 9 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 15 of 27 55% 10 of 19 2 of 5 3 of 3 9 of 19 1 of 2 5 of 6
SeungWoo Choi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Seung Woo Choi vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garcia (-148), Choi (+124)

Round 1
Finding himself in the unexpected situation of serving as the co-main event after the cancelation of Brad Tavares vs. Jun Yong Park, “Mean Machine” Garcia (15-5, 4-2 UFC) is ready to rise the occasion and lock down his fourth win in a row. The Jackson-Wink fighter will try to hand Choi (11-6, 4-5 UFC) his fourth loss in five fights, and the two featherweights will likely meet in the middle and throw down. When they do, referee Herb Dean will be hanging on tight. There is a touch of gloves, and Garcia is the initial aggressor as he gets into the center of the cage and lands a stomp kick to the knee. Garcia ducks back to avoid two looping hooks, only to race forward and bump into Choi’s forehead to tie him up. Garcia ties up a leg but is unable to put the South Korean down, and when Choi escapes, he throws hands. Garcia welcomes the exchange, and when things settle down, he lands another kick to the knee. Choi chambers and fires a low kick that puts Garcia down to a knee, and Garcia climbs back up and gets swept with another kick. Garcia wades forward, thinks about throwing a front kick and lets it go to stand and bang. Stand and bang is exactly what “Mean Machine” does, rocking Choi and getting clipped in a destructive exchange.
Garcia lands the cleaner of the blows as he continues to slug it out, and he knocks Choi off-balance with a left hand and floors him with another bomb of a left. Choi turns to his side and then knees in an effort to shell up and survive, but Garcia is a man possessed at getting the win. Garcia stings “Sting” repeatedly with hammerfists, raining down a seemingly unending onslaught of fists until Dean has no choice but to stop the fight.
Choi looks up at Dean quizzically as blood streams from his mouth, and Garcia runs to the cage wall to scream and then scales it to shout even louder. This is a big moment for Garcia, who has now picked up four straight knockout victories. The triumphant Garcia calls for an MMA fight against Dan Ige, a popular name lately, while also calling out commentator Daniel Cormier for a golf match.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Seung Woo Choi R1 1:36 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia because he is sneaky good with five UFC wins all by KO/TKO. He believes Garcia's striking and wrestling are there, and that Choi Seung-woo has been finished before. He has placed a bet on Garcia at -140 and expects the line to move.

bet placed at -140
"Steve Garcia is the pick I got a nice little bet on him at minus 140"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia but with less confidence, noting Garcia's own durability issues and the fact that both fighters have been dropped. He sees the fight as close to 50/50 and suggests taking Choi if plus money is available. He emphasizes the under 2.5 rounds as the best bet, expecting a violent finish.

"I got one guy that's on a three-fight winning streak... I got to get the guy in the three-fight winning streak."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Garcia by knockout, comparing the fight to a coin flip but ultimately choosing Garcia. He notes both fighters have high knockdown rates and can be dropped, but Garcia's size (6'0", 75" reach) and recent form (5 knockdowns in last 3 fights) give him the edge. He expects a stand-up war ending in a Garcia knockout.

by KO
"heads we're gonna go with Steve Garcia here to uh drop Troy a couple times and then all out War"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Garcia is a -140 favorite. He relies on his knockout power and has a three-fight KO streak. Choi is more technical but has been finished before. Garcia can survive early pressure and land a big shot to get the KO. I prefer Garcia by knockout rather than moneyline, as his KO line is around +130.

Garcia by knockout
"I would rather Garcia by knockout rather than Garcia moneyline at minus 140"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul likes Garcia's momentum and power, noting his three-fight winning streak with five knockdowns. He questions Choi's durability, pointing out Choi has been knocked down five times in his last three fights. Paul thinks Garcia's power is the difference and expects a knockout, though he acknowledges both have shaky chins.

"I think it's Steve all day here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, noting he has doubted Garcia before but he keeps winning. He highlights Garcia's recent finishes over Malik El Kousa, Shannon Nurnbeck, and Chase Hooper, and his training at Jackson Wink. He points out Choi Seung-woo's questionable chin, getting wobbled in most fights, and believes Garcia's power and size at 145 will be too much.

"I'm gonna go with um Steve Garcia I've doubted Steve Garcia enough"
KO (elbows) R2 1:01 · UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · Dec 09, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 29 of 49 59% 41 of 66 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 6 of 10 60% 20 of 25 2 of 10 20% 0 0 4:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 4 of 11 36% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Melquizael Costa 0 5 of 7 71% 19 of 22 2 of 9 22% 0 0 4:41
2 Steve Garcia 1 25 of 38 65% 29 of 43 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:46
Melquizael Costa 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 29 of 49 59% 26 of 45 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 10 3 of 8 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 6 of 10 60% 1 of 5 2 of 2 3 of 3 2 of 3 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 4 of 11 36% 3 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 4 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 5 of 7 71% 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 25 of 38 65% 23 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 4 22 of 31
Melquizael Costa 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Steve Garcia
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-275), Garcia (+225)

Round 1
The predominant method of victory for these two fighters—now competing at lightweight due to the short-notice nature of their rescheduled pairing—is the knockout. Referee Chris Tognoni should don his hard hat before going out against these two sluggers. “Mean Machine” Garcia (14-5, 3-2 UFC) has performed his last six victories via strikes, while LFA vet Costa (20-6, 1-1 UFC) has earned two of his last three wins by knockout. Before the fists fly, they meet together in a sporting manner. Garcia springs forward, but he pulls back before engaging. On his second advance, Garcia throws caution to the wind, winging big punches. Costa shimmies to the side and allows Garcia to push past him, and he hooks his leg around Garcia’s and tries to drag him down to the floor. Costa elects to lift Garcia up and slam him to the mat, but “Mean Machine” moves back up to his feet quickly. Costa clings to Garcia from behind relentlessly, and Garcia tries to defend with no-look elbows. Costa knees Garcia in the backside and upper thigh as he pressures his man, and Garcia responds with elbows on the thigh. Costa whips Garcia to a knee, and Garcia considers grabbing the fence but at the last second just points at it. Costa forces his man down to a knee again, but Garcia springs up with no ill effects. Costa continues to embrace the grind from behind, shutting down any offense from Garcia and forcing him to spend energy in strange exchanges. When Costa looks to get a hook in, Garcia shucks it off. Costa peppers with knees until scooping Garcia up and dumping him down once more. Garcia powers back upright, and he wiggles and wriggles but cannot escape. Costa trips Garcia out but is unable to keep him grounded for more than a second, and he stays in this position until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa

Round 2
Garcia comes out of his corner angrily, and he swings violently and connects with a few of his shots. Costa responds as the two engage in a mad brawl, with punches and elbows flailing in all directions. Garcia wings a left and a right, catching Costa and knocking him down to the canvas. “Mean Machine” follows him to the mat and drives down a vicious elbow, splitting Costa wide open, and Costa is in a bad way. Garcia smashes his man with fists and sharp elbows, and blood sprays around the canvas. Costa turns over and gives up his back, and Garcia snatches up a rear-naked choke. Perhaps due to the blood flow, Costa is able to slide out of the choke and turns to his back.
Garcia postures up, in full mount, and he demolishes “Melky” with three ruthless elbows. Tognoni halts the fight, with Costa out or very nearly out.
When Garcia dismounts his defeated adversary, Costa tries to take Tognoni down, and he is deep in on a single. Tognoni displays excellent takedown defense as officials flood the cage, with one very loud shouting at Costa to wake him back up. Costa realizes that he is trying to take down a referee and that the fight is over, and he surrenders.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Melquizael Costa R2 1:01 via KO (Elbows)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Cody picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that Costa is a volume puncher and Garcia is a knockout-or-bust fighter. Cody points out that Garcia has poor defense and gets rocked in his wins and losses. He thinks Costa's volume and durability will be key. Cody is suspicious that the line hasn't moved despite Garcia pulling out last week due to illness and moving up a weight class. He still favors Costa.

"I like Costa I'm playing Costa cost going to be high up there but it almost favors a little bit Garcia a little bit better"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Paul picks Melquizael Costa. He notes that he liked Costa last week and nothing has changed. Paul points out that Garcia has a history of missing weight and was sick last week, but now fights at lightweight without cutting weight. He thinks Garcia's power is a threat but Costa's volume and durability should win out. Paul is not taking Garcia just because of the circumstances.

"him getting sick and pulling out of a fight last week did not cause me to change my pick this week to suddenly take him so no no not taking Steve Garcia gonna stick with M Costa"
KO (body kick and punches) R2 0:36 · UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Apr 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 1 18 of 35 51% 31 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 17 of 40 42% 50 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 1 16 of 32 50% 29 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 6 of 23 26% 39 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 Steve Garcia 0 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 11 of 17 64% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 18 of 35 51% 15 of 31 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 17 of 40 42% 14 of 37 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 1 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 16 of 32 50% 13 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 13 0 of 0 10 of 19
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 6 of 23 26% 5 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Steve Garcia 2 of 3 66% 2 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 11 of 17 64% 9 of 15 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 12 1 of 1 4 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nuerdanbieke (-200), Garcia (+170)

Round 1
Moving right along, this next fight takes place in the featherweight category. Fresh off some sort of controversy from his last match with Darrick Minner – you can look it up – Shayilan (39-10, 3-1 UFC) wants to move on from that messiness and keep his win streak going. In his 50th professional MMA bout at the tender age of 28, Shayilan battles Garcia (13-5, 2-2 UFC), who has been on the giving and receiving ends of rough knockouts as of late. Before the fists fly, referee Larry Folsom clocks them in, and the fighters do not elect to touch gloves first. Garcia goes after a front kick, but Shayilan is well out of the way. Shayilan intercepts a kick to land a solid one-two, and Garcia pushes off with a front kick that slams into the cup. Folsom sees this and pauses the action immediately. After a little under a minute, Shayilan clears his pain and discomfort and is good to go. They crash together with big punches, and Shayilan backs off to coil back his big right hand. Garcia rushes in, and Shayilan unloads it, blasting Garcia in the face and sending him crumpling to the mat. Shayilan looks to finish the job with a barrage of punches, but Garcia ties him up and holds on to clear his wits. Shayilan postures up to nail Garcia with an elbow, and Garcia scoots his way back to the fencing. Garcia wall-walks to stand back up, and Shayilan drags him back to a knee in short order. Shayilan sneaks around to take the back of “Mean Machine,” and Garcia slides back into the clinch and pushes the Chinese fighter to the wire. Shayilan throws him to the mat and slashes down with an elbow, and he lowers himself into the guard. Garcia hangs on from on bottom to quell the bludgeoning, and Shayilan methodically opens up every so often to connect with a solid shot. Garcia works his way back up and bursts to his feet, and he has busted Shayilan open with his own strikes. Garcia rushes out, pushing the pace on “Wolverine” and unloading with a few punches. Garcia belts Shayilan in the face, stunning him and forcing Shayilan to shoot for a desperation takedown. Garcia, from his back, kicks a downed Shayilan in the face illegally, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Shayilan

Round 2
Garcia is amped up to start off the second round, rushing after the Chinese competitor and throwing bombs. Shayilan ducks down, and Garcia times a perfect kick that smashes Shayilan in the face and relocates his nose. Sensing that his opponent is in big, big trouble, Garcia unleashes a high kick, a right hand and a left that knock Shayilan back to the wall.
Garcia digs a stabbing, toe-first kick to the liver, and he punches the exact same spot, and “Wolverine” crumples to the mat. Any subsequent ground-and-pound is purely academic, and “Mean Machine” hammers the nail with a couple follow-up punches.
This is a mighty comeback for Garcia, who got cracked at the beginning of the fight and recovered to come on strong and pull off the solid stoppage.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Nuerdanbieke Shayilan R2 0:36 via KO (Body Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Angelo picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke but is hesitant to bet because of his low volume output. He notes that Shayilan is a powerful grappler with a bully style, but Steve Garcia is a high-volume striker who could steal rounds if Shayilan doesn't push the pace early. He is waiting for significant strike prop bets to drop, as he believes Steve Garcia will land more significant strikes even if Shayilan wins.

significant strikes prop (Steve Garcia to land more)
"I think shylon wins this fight the problem is the only thing that's preventing me from betting the hell out of shylon is he's a low volume guy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Big Brady picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke due to his wrestling advantage and durability concerns with Steve Garcia. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times in recent fights, questioning his chin. He believes Nuerdanbieke can mix takedowns and control the fight, potentially winning by decision or even knocking out Garcia. He predicts a decision win for Nuerdanbieke.

"I'll say Charlie on by decision I'll say he does mixing the takedowns it's what he does best"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Cody also picks Garcia, agreeing with Paul's reasoning. He notes Garcia's improvements and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's wrestling may not be enough to control Garcia. Cody mentions that Garcia has never been taken down in the UFC. He is cautious but sees value at +155. He says he took a shot on Garcia but warns it's a risky bet.

"at plus 155 Steve will be the pick for me as well"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nuerdanbieke. He notes that Garcia is fun and dangerous but his path to win leads him into his opponent's offense.

"I'm fine with the odds getting a little closer. Like I, I have always said Garcia is a better fighter than his record shows..."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Jacob is confident in Shayilan, noting that he trusts his chin more and believes he has the wrestling to slow down Steve Garcia's pressure. He thinks Garcia will come out aggressively, but Shayilan can counter him or take him down. He mentions that Garcia gets dropped often, so Shayilan has a good chance of a knockout. However, he wouldn't bet it because Garcia is a dangerous opponent who risks it all.

"I trust shylon's chin uh more and he's got the wrestling in this back pocket to kind of slow everything down"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Apr 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Nuerdanbieke uses his stocky frame to grind opponents with takedowns and top pressure, but his striking is wild and he slows down. Garcia has knockout power and unorthodox angles, but his consistency is questionable. I'm skeptical but think the grappling-heavy fighter is the smarter pick, though I have low confidence due to Garcia's power and unknowns.

"I am going to pick that as my prediction though as I think that usually it's smarter to go with the Garoppolo heavy fighter but there are so many question marks on the Steve Garcia side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Paul picks Garcia but with very low confidence. He notes Garcia's tendency to run into punches and get dropped, but believes Nuerdanbieke is not a power puncher and relies on wrestling. Paul argues that Garcia has good takedown defense and power, and that Nuerdanbieke's low striking output could lead to a decision loss if he can't hold Garcia down. He also mentions the Florida crowd may favor Garcia's aggression. He calls it a 'fool pick of the week' and warns not to bet much.

"I will take Steve Garcia and it may be the PRP pick all the way at the bottom zero confidence in this fight whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2023 (fight day)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

The MMA Guru picks Shayilan Nuerdanbieke to win by 29-28 decision. He expects Nuerdanbieke to get a takedown in the first round, control the grappling, and mix in strikes. He thinks Garcia will have some success on the feet in the third round but not enough to overcome the earlier rounds. The prediction is detailed with round-by-round scenarios.

"I'm gonna go with by 29-28 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke

Zane picks Nuerdanbieke because Garcia has terrible wrestling defense and Nuerdanbieke is persistent and strong. He notes that Nuerdanbieke will work hard and take Garcia down, which is too much of a hole for Garcia to overcome.

"I got to pick him. He's very persistent and he's super strong too, which sets up for a lot of his technical shortcomings."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
TKO (punches) R1 1:32 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steve Garcia 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 3 29 of 44 65% 31 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steve Garcia 10 of 30 33% 7 of 25 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 29 of 44 65% 19 of 33 7 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 40 0 of 0 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steve Garcia vs. Chase Hooper

Round 1
The quintessential “striker vs. grappler” label certainly applies to this next pairing at 145 pounds, when the submission-minded Hooper (11-2-1, 3-2 UFC) comes to blows with “Mean Machine” Garcia (12-5, 1-2 UFC). The third man in the cage for this fight that could end suddenly is referee Herb Dean, and he prepares himself should he need to step in. The fighters touch gloves, and Hooper is immediately the aggressor. He walks into a few punches from Garcia, and Hooper is stung in a hurry. Garcia follows a combination with a knee, and Hooper shakes it off and backs off. Garcia sets him down with a left hand, and he does not follow him down. When Hooper stands back up, “Mean Machine” blasts him with another left hand, and Hooper hits the mat for the third time in under a minute. The youngster Hooper keeps his wits about him and works his way back up, and Garcia is not about to let him off the hook. Hooper flails and spins with a back fist, but the power of Garcia is vastly more significant.
The Jackson-Wink fighter chains together a right to the body and a left to the head, and “The Dream” becomes a nightmare as he crumples to the mat from a thudding left hand. While he might still be able to keep going, Dean recognizes that the last knockdown was a bad one as Hooper’s face is busted and swelling fast. The onslaught has ripped open Hooper's left eyebrow to leak blood in the young man's eye, and it does not take more than a few mean hammerfists from “Mean Machine” to prompt Dean’s intervention.
This was largely one-way traffic for Garcia, who registered an instant contender for “Beatdown of the Year” by demolishing the 23-year-old in a hair over 90 seconds.

The Official Result
Steve Garcia def. Chase Hooper R1 1:32 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He highlights Hooper's improved wrestling and striking, and his dangerous ground game, noting that Hooper finished the tough Felipe Colares in his last fight. He contrasts Garcia's sketchy chin and poor grappling defense, referencing Garcia's fight against Luis Pena where he was controlled for 14 minutes. Brady believes Hooper will get the fight to the mat and finish Garcia.

Hooper wins by second-round TKO
"I like Cooper to win this fight inside the distance I'll say like a second round like a TKO for Chase super"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Cody picks Chase Hooper, noting his improvements in wrestling and striking, and his physical maturity. He criticizes Steve Garcia's poor chin, striking defense, and lack of X-factor. Cody expects Hooper to take Garcia down, backpack him with a body triangle, and finish with ground and pound. He likes Hooper by knockout at +475.

Hooper by knockout at +475
"Chase by knockout plus 475 that's what I'm in on this one I think Chase Hooper's got a good chance to go out there to take this fight to the ground dominate the exact same way and just pile up …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Connor picks Hooper confidently, highlighting his improved understanding of MMA grappling and his aggressive ground and pound. He notes that Garcia's game is built on getting to the pocket and taking people down, which will give Hooper opportunities to wrap him up and do damage. Connor compares it to Garcia's fight against Luis Pena, but with more damage coming back.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"This will be that pain you fight, but with a lot more damage coming back."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, citing his heart, improvement, and grappling skills. He notes Garcia's weight issues and recent KO losses. He references the Luis Pena fight where Pena backpacked Garcia, giving confidence in Hooper's grappling. He is not interested in laying -260.

"I'm gonna go with Chase super here I'm just not in any kind of Rush delay a price like minus 250 on him."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Jacob is very confident in Chase Hooper, citing his improved striking, toughness, and elite grappling. He notes Steve Garcia gets dropped often and has chin issues, and if Garcia wrestles, that plays into Hooper's strengths. Jacob sees a potential TKO or submission for Hooper.

inside the distance for Chase Hooper
"my official pick is Chase Hooper I love him in this matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Hooper is a jiu-jitsu ace but his striking is still developing. Garcia has power but poor takedown defense and can be controlled against the cage. Hooper should be able to take Garcia down and work for a submission, similar to Luis Pena's performance. However, the heavy chalk on Hooper is concerning given his past struggles. The submission prop at +250 is appealing.

Hooper by submission +250
"I still get a little queasy thinking about taking Chase super at this type of chalk but this still seems like a spot he should go out there control the majority of the fight until he can eventually lock up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Paul picks Chase Hooper but is hesitant to bet at -300. He notes Hooper's youth and development, but is concerned about his wrestling and stand-up still being works in progress. Paul says he will pick Hooper for the show but may not bet him.

"I'm gonna pick them for the purposes of this show but I don't know how I really get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper over Steve Garcia, impressed by Hooper's last performance where he gassed out and finished Felipe Colares. He notes Hooper's grappling pace and ability to drown opponents on the ground. He believes Garcia, coming off a brutal KO loss, will struggle with Hooper's pressure and that Hooper will win by 29-28 decision, losing the first but winning the last two rounds.

"I'm going with Chase Hooper here I've doubted him at times in his career but I must admit... after his last performance it was so impressive"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper confidently, noting his huge improvements in striking and grappling aggression. He describes Hooper as a super technical grappler who now uses ground and pound effectively. Zane argues that Garcia's style of pushing into the pocket and clinching plays directly into Hooper's strengths, and that Garcia is not a great athlete, making him vulnerable to Hooper's submissions and control.

Hooper opened -185 now -267, Garcia opened +159 now +214.
"Chase Hooper is going to make that really apparent."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Angelo picks Steve Garcia but was initially not confident at higher odds. He notes Calvin Kattar is still a good striker with good takedown defense, but hasn't won in three years and is 37. At even money, he thinks Garcia is a decent play because he's younger and on a knockout streak, but he acknowledges Kattar has never been knocked out.

At even money, thinks Garcia is a decent play.
"Steve Garcia is the pick. I was never going to bet him at a minus 160, but at minus 110, which is unfortunately even money here, I think Steve Garcia could be a decent play."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady is a fan of Steve Garcia but picks Calvin Kattar due to durability. He notes Garcia has been dropped multiple times, while Kattar has never been knocked out in over 30 fights. He expects a stand-up war and believes Kattar will finish what Charlie Ontiveros started, picking Kattar by first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"Calvin Kedar to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Connor picks Kattar despite his losing streak, reasoning that Kattar has fought only elite fighters and has an incredible chin that has never been cracked. He views Steve Garcia as a 'bad fighter' who closes his eyes and swings wildly, and believes Kattar's durability and experience will carry him. Connor admits he is tired of being wrong about Garcia but trusts the pattern of Kattar losing only to top-tier opponents.

"I'm going to pick Calvin Kattar. ... Steve Garcia, I think is a bad fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The host acknowledges recency bias making Garcia a slight favorite, but notes that Kattar has never been finished by knockout (except an injury). He believes this is a perfect stylistic matchup for Kattar to counter Garcia effectively and find a knockout, reminding people of his quality. The pick is based on Kattar's durability and counter-striking.

knockout
"Ton of recency bias here making Garcia a very slight favorite. And yes, he is very dangerous, especially with him coming off a fiveight winning streak with all of those wins coming by knockout. But Kater has never been finished by knockout besides that injury that he had to Arnold …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

The MMA Guru picks Steve Garcia, citing his recent finishes (Chase Hooper, Shalan Nerd Beck) and his pressure style. He criticizes Calvin Kattar's recent performances, noting poor footwork and takedown defense since his leg injury. He expects Garcia to get in Kattar's face immediately, mix in wrestling, and finish him, though he acknowledges Kattar could win if he finds his rhythm late.

finish
"I'm going to go with Steve Garcia over Calvin Kater. ... I think he's actually gonna finish Calvin Kater here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Steve Garcia

Zane picks Garcia, partly to avoid being mocked by a friend named Eddie for always picking against Garcia. He acknowledges that Garcia is a wild, unhinged fighter who frequently gets into trouble but has been winning. Zane notes that Kattar has slowed down and lost venom, and that Garcia's aggressive blitz could overwhelm him, similar to how Arnold Allen attacked Kattar. However, he admits Garcia is not a good technical fighter.

"I'm going to pick Steve Garcia. I'm going to say this is the day that it happens for Calvin Kattar that starting slow..."