Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
Career Averages - Austen Lane
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 92 of 161 | 57% | 92 of 162 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Steven Asplund | 1 | 61 of 158 | 38% | 73 of 172 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 19 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Steven Asplund | 1 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 34 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Steven Asplund | 0 | 14 of 50 | 28% | 14 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 39 of 72 | 54% | 39 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steven Asplund | 0 | 27 of 63 | 42% | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 92 of 161 | 57% | 59 of 126 | 18 of 18 | 15 of 17 | 92 of 160 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steven Asplund | 61 of 158 | 38% | 48 of 140 | 4 of 8 | 9 of 10 | 58 of 154 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 19 of 37 | 51% | 14 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steven Asplund | 20 of 45 | 44% | 14 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 34 of 52 | 65% | 25 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 34 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steven Asplund | 14 of 50 | 28% | 12 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 39 of 72 | 54% | 20 of 52 | 13 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 39 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steven Asplund | 27 of 63 | 42% | 22 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.
Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.
Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.
James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.
The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.
Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.
The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.
Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 2 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 41 of 62 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 15 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 22 of 27 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 14 of 28 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Thomas Petersen | 0 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 31 of 54 | 57% | 25 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 9 of 12 | 9 of 13 |
| Thomas Petersen | 16 of 35 | 45% | 7 of 25 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 13 of 20 | 65% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 10 |
| Thomas Petersen | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 14 of 28 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 1 |
| Thomas Petersen | 13 of 28 | 46% | 7 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Thomas Petersen | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.
Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.
Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.
Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.
Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Austen Lane | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Austen Lane | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.
Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.
Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.
The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.
Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 40 of 96 | 41% | 40 of 96 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Vitor Petrino | 1 | 45 of 96 | 46% | 47 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 12 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Dustin Jacoby | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Vitor Petrino | 1 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Jacoby | 40 of 96 | 41% | 27 of 79 | 6 of 7 | 7 of 10 | 40 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 45 of 96 | 46% | 23 of 69 | 7 of 9 | 15 of 18 | 39 of 87 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Jacoby | 10 of 26 | 38% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 12 of 32 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 25 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Jacoby | 19 of 47 | 40% | 16 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 18 of 36 | 50% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Dustin Jacoby | 11 of 23 | 47% | 6 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 15 of 28 | 53% | 10 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.
Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.
Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.
Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.
Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.
Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.
Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.
The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.
Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Smith | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Smith | 11 of 20 | 55% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vitor Petrino | 10 of 22 | 45% | 4 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.
Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.
Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.
Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.
Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.
Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.
Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 33 of 82 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 5:24 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 33 of 64 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 11 of 24 | 45% | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 10 of 30 | 33% | 10 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Tyson Pedro | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 27 of 75 | 36% | 16 of 59 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Tyson Pedro | 30 of 60 | 50% | 3 of 29 | 11 of 15 | 16 of 16 | 29 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 10 of 28 | 35% | 5 of 20 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 11 of 24 | 45% | 0 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 11 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 10 of 30 | 33% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tyson Pedro | 14 of 22 | 63% | 1 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 13 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 7 of 17 | 41% | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Tyson Pedro | 5 of 14 | 35% | 2 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.
Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.
Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.
Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.
The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 1 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 9 of 19 | 47% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 6 of 21 | 28% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 5 of 12 | 41% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Modestas Bukauskas | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)
Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.
The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.
Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.
James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.
Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.
The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 72 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 8:39 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 55 of 88 | 62% | 147 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 20 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 66 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 30 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 56 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 44 of 81 | 54% | 32 of 68 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 22 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 55 of 88 | 62% | 25 of 54 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 41 of 73 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 16 of 33 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 32 of 44 | 72% | 12 of 23 | 14 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 32 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 11 of 15 | 73% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 39 | 53% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.
Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.
Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.
Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.
James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.
Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.
Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.
Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.
Austen Lane - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski | 1 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iwo Baraniewski | 1 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iwo Baraniewski | 10 of 13 | 76% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Austen Lane | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iwo Baraniewski | 10 of 13 | 76% | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Austen Lane | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-600); Lane (+450)
Round 1
Lucasz Bosacki is the referee. Baraniewski opens with a low kick. Baraniewski gets inside on Lane in short order and
drops his adversary with an overhand right followed by a left hook to the chin. The Pole hovers over his fallen opponent and unloads with a few follow-up punches before Bosacki decides he’s seen enough.
Baraniewski has eight professional victories — two in UFC competition — and all have come inside of a round.
The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Austen Lane via TKO (Punches) R1 0:28
Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski confidently, stating he should run through Austen Lane. He notes Iwo has power, wrestling, and is well-rounded, while Lane's only successful wrestling was against a fighter with no takedown defense. He believes this matchup is designed to give Iwo a win to build the division.
Big Brady is very confident in Iwo Baraniewski (Berenice), calling this another 'sanctioned murder.' He notes that Austen Lane has a terrible chin, has been knocked out seven times (six by KO), and is cutting down to 205 at 38 years old, which he doubts will happen. He highlights Baraniewski's power and skill, predicting a brutal first-round knockout. He also questions whether Lane will even make weight.
Cody also picks Baraniewski, noting Lane's history of getting finished and the difficulty of cutting to 205. He expects a first-round KO.
Connor picks Baraniewski, echoing Zane's assessment. He calls Lane a 'short-armed brawler with a tiny reach' who nearly lost to Ibo Aslan. Connor notes that Lane's size makes him easier to hit and he cannot take a punch. He sarcastically comments on Lane's lack of skills and says the fight has 'disaster written all over it' for Lane.
Daniel Vreeland picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges questions about Baraniewski's cardio and ground game, but believes Lane is not the one to expose them. He expects Baraniewski's power to be too much.
Daniel picks Iwo to knock out Lane in the first round. He acknowledges Iwo is untested past round one but has no faith in Lane, who is dropping to 205 and older. He thinks Iwo's power and finishing ability will be too much.
Baranowski is explosive and durable but unknown beyond round one. Lane has grappling but is likely to get knocked out. Baranowski is unplayable at -600; Lane is a dog or pass.
James picks Iwo Baraniewski to win via knockout in round one, citing his power and Lane's poor chin. He notes that Lane is moving down from heavyweight and has been knocked out before. He thinks Lane's only chance is to land a big shot, but Baraniewski's low center of gravity and judo make him hard to take down.
The host is confident in Iwo Baraniewski winning in round one by knockout. He highlights Baraniewski's power and finishing ability, while Lane is an aging heavyweight cutting weight with poor durability. He expects Baraniewski to overwhelm Lane quickly, possibly via ground and pound or a big shot.
Paul expects Baraniewski to knock out Lane early, given Lane's poor durability and weight cut. He likes the inside the distance prop.
The MMA Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski to KO Austen Lane in the first round. He notes Lane has a suspect chin and poor striking defense, while Baraniewski has crafty power and good recovery. He expects Baraniewski to land a lead hook or check hook and put Lane out cold, as Lane tends to put his hands away when swung at.
Zane picks Baraniewski confidently, calling Lane a disaster. He notes that Lane cannot take a punch, falls over his feet when throwing more than one punch, and has no technique or tenacity. Despite Lane's size advantage (6 inches height, 7 inches reach), Zane sees it as a liability because Lane is easy to hit and cannot take shots. Baraniewski is a short-armed brawler but should overwhelm Lane.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 17 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:03 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Austen Lane | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Austen Lane | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.
Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.
Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.
The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.
Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 1 | 32 of 63 | 50% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Mário Pinto | 1 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 1 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Mário Pinto | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Austen Lane | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mário Pinto | 1 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 32 of 63 | 50% | 17 of 42 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 4 | 31 of 58 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 13 of 23 | 56% | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 20 of 38 | 52% | 11 of 23 | 7 of 11 | 2 of 4 | 20 of 35 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 7 of 11 | 63% | 2 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austen Lane | 12 of 25 | 48% | 6 of 19 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Mário Pinto | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Mário Pinto has good takedown defense and power, but Austen Lane is athletic and experienced. He is hesitant due to Pinto's -330 odds as a UFC debutant and decides to avoid betting on this fight, calling it a 'conservative anchor' and suggesting it's the type of fight bet Sam might take.
Big Brady picks Mário Pinto, impressed by his well-rounded skills. He notes Austen Lane's only path is wrestling, but Pinto can stuff takedowns and has a striking advantage. He predicts Pinto will knock out Lane within the first two rounds.
The host is high on Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, believing his takedown defense will shut down Lane's wrestling and that he is the superior striker. He expects Pinto to find a knockout and get his hand raised.
The Guru picks Mário Pinto over Austen Lane. He notes Pinto's technical striking and finishing ability on the contender series, despite looking flabby. He thinks Lane is dangerous but has been knocked out before. He predicts a TKO finish for Pinto in his debut.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 0 | 23 of 38 | 60% | 78 of 110 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 8:58 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 0 | 31 of 46 | 67% | 48 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 14 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Austen Lane | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 18 of 29 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Austen Lane | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 46 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 19 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 23 of 38 | 60% | 7 of 20 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 11 | 17 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 31 of 46 | 67% | 23 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 36 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 4 of 4 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Austen Lane | 12 of 22 | 54% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 16 of 29 | 55% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 16 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Austen Lane | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Robelis Despaigne | 11 of 13 | 84% | 8 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes the UFC is setting up Robelis Despaigne to become a superstar by giving him a favorable matchup against Austen Lane, who has a weak chin and was recently knocked out. He notes Despaigne's Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and athleticism, but acknowledges his cardio issues and takedown defense problems from his last fight. Angelo thinks Despaigne will knock out Lane early, as Lane's chin is suspect and Despaigne's power is overwhelming. He calls the -400 line a discount and expects Despaigne to win easily.
Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne by first-round knockout. He notes Despaigne's incredible power, with multiple knockouts under 20 seconds, and points out that Lane has five knockout losses, four in the first round. He doubts Lane can get the fight to the mat or keep it there past seven and a half minutes, so he sees a clear path for Despaigne.
Connor agrees, picking Despaigne. He notes that Lane is an NFL player who doesn't like fighting and has no heart, while Despaigne has a plan and confidence. He points out that Lane got knocked out by Greg Hardy in a minute, showing he's not cut out for MMA.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Despaigne is a bad matchup for Lane, who has been knocked out in several fights. Despaigne can utilize his quick finishing approach to find Lane's chin. However, at the chalky price, Despaigne is not worth a shot; leaning on his round one prop is the best way to get bang for your buck.
The Guru picks Despaigne despite his last loss, noting that he wasn't finished and that his opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a proven heavyweight. He highlights Despaigne's size and power advantage, and points out Austen Lane's history of getting knocked out by big hitters. He believes Despaigne has been working on takedown defense and will get a first-round TKO.
Zane picks Despaigne because he sees Lane as a fighter who doesn't like fighting and has no game. He notes that in their last fights, Despaigne was taken down but came back strong in round two, while Lane was dead after round one. Zane believes Despaigne's confidence and plan will prevail over Lane's lack of heart.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 43 of 73 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
| Austen Lane | 1 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 35 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:10 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Austen Lane | 1 | 19 of 31 | 61% | 26 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 17 of 37 | 45% | 15 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Austen Lane | 20 of 33 | 60% | 15 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 25 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 9 of 19 | 47% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 12 |
| Austen Lane | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 8 of 18 | 44% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Austen Lane | 19 of 31 | 61% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 23 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Lane lands a nice body kick and has a clear speed advantage. Diniz is taken down. Lane gets into half-guard and is landing some solid elbows. Diniz is struggling and trying to get back to his feet, but to no avail. Lane postures up and lands thudding punches. Lane is in full control. Diniz briefly gets guard again but loses it. Lane sits up and lands punches. 30 seconds left. Lane gets into mount with 10 seconds left and does some good damage before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Round 2
Lane lands a nice right hand. Diniz lands a few nice counterpunches as Lane charges forward, trying to grapple. Lane eats some hooks and looks tired. Lane goes for a takedown, gives up and plops on his back. Diniz lands some leg kicks and then allows Lane up. Lane looks at the clock and then eats a right hand. Lane looks exhausted.
Diniz lands a left hook that stumbles Lane. A right hand and then another left hook sends Lane to the canvas. He is completely knocked out, and this fight is over.
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Austen Lane via KO (Punches); R2, 2:12.
Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz with medium confidence, citing his superior striking technique, power, and speed. He notes Diniz is a Contender Series product with professional kickboxing experience and clean combinations. However, he is wary of Diniz's untested takedown defense and the possibility of a 'Volker Walker' type flop. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds could be a good play if the line is plus money, as this could be a sloppy fight.
Cody picks Diniz, calling Lane a 'lose lose lose cut' type. He notes Diniz's kickboxing pedigree (fought in Glory) and believes his striking is far superior. He expects Diniz to land first and finish, though he admits it's a low-level heavyweight fight.
Daniel thinks Diniz is too technically sound for Lane, who is a former NFL player with a weak chin and no takedown attempts. He expects Diniz to get a knockout, though he notes Diniz's cardio is untested. He picks Diniz to win.
Diniz is a slick striker with good defensive grappling. He should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Lane. Lane has a questionable chin and may struggle with Diniz's combination striking. I expect Diniz to win by knockout, but the price is a bit steep.
Paul agrees, emphasizing Diniz's striking credentials and Lane's lack of MMA experience. He thinks Diniz is faster, sharper, and more tactical, and will likely get a knockout. He considers this one of the better plays on the card.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his elite kickboxing background and training with Rico Verhoeven. He praises Diniz's fundamental stance, chin tucked, and composure. He criticizes Austen Lane for being scared to get hit and having poor reactions. He predicts Diniz will catch Lane with a jab-straight combination while Lane is on one leg, leading to a TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 1 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 1 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Austen Lane | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Tafa | 11 of 14 | 78% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Austen Lane | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Tafa | 11 of 14 | 78% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Austen Lane | 7 of 14 | 50% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.
Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.
Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.
In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.
Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.
The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Lane | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Austen Lane | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.
Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.
Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.
Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.
The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.
Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.
The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.
Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.
Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.
Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.
The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.
Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.
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