Junior Tafa

The host picks Baraniewski by armbar, noting that Baraniewski is a very good grappler with judo and powerful takedowns. He expects Baraniewski to exchange a few strikes, then toss Tafa and armbar him as soon as they hit the mat. He mentions that Tafa's takedown defense and submission defense are not there.

AJ picks Baraniewski to finish Tafa, likely by submission in round one, citing Baraniewski's judo background and Tafa's suspect grappling. He notes Baraniewski can also win on the feet but expects the smart strategy to be takedown and submission. AJ is confident Baraniewski will showcase his grappling and get a first-round finish.

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski but expresses concern about his lack of experience in later rounds, as he has never been past the first round. He notes that Baraniewski has power and can wrestle if needed, while Tafa's takedown defense is terrible. However, he worries that if Baraniewski doesn't finish early, he might gas.

Big Brady picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first round submission. He notes that Junior Tafa has the worst grappling in the UFC and that Baraniewski should take him down and submit him easily. However, he worries about Baraniewski's fight IQ and whether he will choose to strike instead of grappling.

Iwo Baraniewski has five straight knockouts and is a brutal finisher. Junior Tafa has a weak chin and was knocked out by Billy Elekana. Baraniewski will knock him out in the first round, possibly with a submission but likely a KO.

Cody picks Baraniewski but is hesitant due to the high price and Baraniewski's reckless style. He notes Tafa is dangerous in the first round and Baraniewski could get clipped. He prefers not to get heavily invested at -375 but still expects Baraniewski to win.

Iwo Baraniewski should win because he has a grappling advantage over Junior Tafa, who is susceptible to low kicks and has questionable cardio. However, Baraniewski can be reckless and hittable, so he must grapple to avoid getting clipped. The host expects a finish, possibly by submission, but notes Baraniewski's inconsistency.

Baraniewski is fundamentally better and has power, but Tafa has a puncher's chance. Baraniewski should win by first-round knockout if he doesn't get reckless. Tafa is bigger but lacks technical striking and grappling.

Lucrative James picks Iwo Baraniewski, expecting him to use his grappling to neutralize Junior Tafa's striking. He notes Baraniewski's takedown instincts and ground game, predicting a KO via ground and pound in round 1. He acknowledges Tafa's power but believes Baraniewski's wrestling will be the difference.

Baraniewski is a powerful wrestler with finishing ability; Tafa has poor takedown defense and gets demoralized on the ground. Baraniewski should take him down easily and finish by submission or TKO. The round one submission prop at +1100 is a great value.

Angelo leans Kevin Christian despite Junior Tafa being the better striker, because Tafa's takedown defense and ground game are terrible. He believes if Christian can get the fight to the ground, he will win. He expects a finish either way and mentions the under on rounds.

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He calls Kevin Christian the worst fighter in UFC history, citing his lack of volume, chin, and wrestling. Brady notes Tafa has two UFC wins by knockout and believes Christian's only path is a triangle choke, which is unlikely. He trusts Tafa's power to finish early.

Cody picks Tafa but is hesitant, noting his poor cardio and submission vulnerability. He believes Tafa will likely win by knockout in the first round, but advises live betting Christian if it goes longer.

Connor picks Christian as a fun upset pick, noting that Tafa is a chaos fighter who either wins in the first round or loses. He points out that Tafa has no grappling and could get taken down or submitted by Christian's length. However, he admits Christian is bad and uncoordinated, making this a low-confidence pick.

Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Junior Tafa to win by knockout, but is wary of Tafa's poor ground game and history of losing as a favorite. He notes Kevin Christian's poor distance management but sees Tafa's power as the deciding factor.

Tafa is the favorite but his advantages are baked into the odds. He has bad cardio and ground game, while Christian is slow and hittable but could exploit Tafa's weaknesses if he grapples. The fight is likely to end inside the distance but odds are terrible. No bet recommended.

Lucrative James picks Junior Tafa to win via knockout. He considers Kevin Christian one of the worst fighters on the roster and believes Tafa is a much better striker. He expects Tafa's takedown defense to keep the fight standing where he has a clear advantage.

James is very confident in Junior Tafa because he believes Kevin Christian is a low-level UFC fighter with poor striking defense and cardio. He expects Tafa's superior boxing and kickboxing to lead to an early knockout, likely in the first round.

Despite normally fading Tafa, the host picks him here because Christian's grappling is not UFC level. He expects Tafa's initial grappling defense to keep the fight standing, and then Tafa will land a big knockout. The host notes Tafa's power and that Christian is hittable and lacks durability.

Paul picks Christian as an underdog, citing Tafa's history of gassing and getting submitted. He believes Christian's submission skills and durability could lead to an upset, especially if he survives the first round.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, despite his 6-5 record, believing he will catch Kevin Christian coming in. He notes Tafa looked improved in his last fight and dropped Billy Elekana. He also comments on Christian's background, suggesting it affects his pick.

Angelo picks Billy Elekana, stating he is the better overall MMA fighter with solid takedown defense and patient striking. He acknowledges Junior Tafa's kickboxing skills but notes his takedown defense is a huge hole. He warns that the odds are steep at -225 and that Tafa could have success if Elekana tries to strike, but Elekana can adjust.

Big Brady is confident in Billy Elekana, citing Junior Tafa's poor grappling (white belt) and Elekana's submission win over Kevin Christian. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and submit him in the first round, as Tafa made Tuco Tokos look like Khabib.

Cody is confident in Elekana, citing Tafa's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes that Elekana has good grappling and submission skills, and expects him to take Tafa down and submit him in the second round. He acknowledges Elekana is not a world-beater but sees this as a favorable matchup.

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Elekana. He emphasizes that Tafa's striking is not technical enough and he has no grappling, so Elekana should win if he doesn't freeze. Connor also comments on the odds, suggesting Elekana is overvalued.

Daniel Vreeland picks Elekana despite initially doubting him, citing Tafa's abysmal ground game. He believes Elekana can take Tafa down and finish quickly, though he warns that if Elekana bangs on the feet, he risks getting knocked out. Vreeland is surprised to be picking Elekana but sees a clear path to victory.

James picks Elekana to win by submission, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He believes Elekana will take Tafa down and finish what Sean Sherif started, likely with a rear-naked choke in round one.

Elekana is a solid BJJ specialist with good striking and timing. Tafa has poor takedown defense and is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in his submission losses. Elekana should evade Tafa's power shots, get takedowns, and find a submission within a round and a half. The host likes Elekana by submission at +210, noting that Tafa is a favorite fade.

Paul agrees, noting that Tafa has consistently gassed out and been finished in his UFC fights. He believes Elekana's grappling will be the difference and predicts a submission win in the second round.

The Guru picks Billy Elekana, calling it a no-brainer. He praises Elekana's technical level, grappling, and toughness, noting his performance against Bogdan Guskov. He expects Elekana to submit Junior Tafa in the first round, as Tafa is less technical and relies on brawling.

Angelo picks Tuco Tokkos but admits he can't bet on him because Tokkos is winless in the UFC. He thinks Tokkos can get the fight to the ground and control Junior Tafa, who has poor takedown defense and looked out of shape in his last fight. However, he notes Tokkos is not reliable enough to bet on as a dog.

Big Brady hates this fight from a betting standpoint. He warns that Junior Tafa's ground game is terrible and if Tuco Tokkos gets him down, it could be bad. However, he cannot rely on Tokkos to wrestle or do anything. He picks Tafa by default, expecting a first-round knockout, but says he would never lay -160 on Tafa.

Connor picks Tokkos hesitantly, noting that Junior Tafa is a one-dimensional slugger who is very upright and easy to navigate. He acknowledges that Tokkos is hurtable and awkward, but believes his wrestling and toughness might be enough to outwork Tafa. Connor admits Tafa could knock Tokkos out, but he leans toward Tokkos due to Tafa's lack of versatility.

The host is not a fan of either fighter but believes Tokkos has the BJJ black belt to take Tafa to the ground and find a submission quickly. He criticizes Tafa's overall skill level, noting he has decent pop but is not a good fighter. Tokkos has underperformed in the UFC but has the grappling chops to win.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, noting he is in shape for his light heavyweight debut and has had some success in the UFC, unlike Tuco Tokkos who has lost three straight and shown no success. He expects Tafa to be 'lean and mean' and score a first-round TKO, as Tokkos has been finished in all his losses.

Angelo picks Junior Tafa, citing his kickboxing skills and the fact that Chris Barnett hasn't fought in two years. He notes that Barnett's athleticism declines with age and that Tafa should be able to piece him up on the feet. Angelo mentions that Tafa's takedown defense is a hole, but Barnett is unlikely to exploit it. He believes Tafa will win via striking and that the layoff will show rust on Barnett.

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Tafa is a sizable favorite and has the striking advantage, but acknowledges that if Sharaf wrestles, Tafa has no takedown defense or ground game. However, since Sharaf hasn't shown wrestling, Brady expects Tafa to knock him out early. He mentions the under is juiced and thinks someone gets finished in the first round.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Sharaf is a typical heavyweight signing with no tape, who will be aggressive but likely sucks if he doesn't knock Tafa out instantly. He points out that Tafa has at least shown some striking ability and is not as easily overwhelmed as Sharaf's previous opponents.

Daniel notes Tafa's significant size and age advantages over Barnett, who is 5'8", 38 years old, and obese. He believes Tafa's striking is excellent and that Barnett will stand and trade, leading to a knockout. The only concern is Tafa's poor grappling if taken down, but Daniel thinks Barnett won't attempt takedowns.

The host is not a fan of Junior Tafa, calling him overrated with only one UFC victory that he 'cheated' to get via a fence grab. Sharaf is a short-notice replacement but a longtime member of Extreme Couture, training with Francis Ngannou and others. Sharaf should engage in striking and possibly grappling, showcasing better MMA and pulling off the upset.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa over Chris Barnett (note: transcript says Chris Barnett but fight card lists Sean Sharaf; likely a mistake in transcript). He trusts Tafa's boxing and power at heavyweight over Barnett's kicks and unorthodox striking. He notes Barnett's history of being knocked out and his poor boxing, while Tafa is young and hits hard with clean boxing.

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No picks were made.

Angelo picks Valter Walker to win via wrestling, believing he can get takedowns and control Junior Tafa, who has shown poor takedown defense. However, he talks himself out of betting on Walker because his last fight was an embarrassing cardio failure, and the odds are not plus money. He calls Walker 'absolutely horrible' but thinks he can win if he shows up prepared.

Big Brady picks Junior Tafa to win by second-round knockout. He is not high on either fighter but thinks Tafa has the advantage on the feet. He notes Valter Walker can wrestle and will likely get takedowns in the first round, but Walker gasses out early and looked terrible in his last fight. He expects Walker to tire in the second round, allowing Tafa to stuff takedowns and land a knockout. He says he would not bet this fight with a 10-foot pole, especially laying chalk on Tafa.

Cody believes Walker's wrestling will be the difference, as Tafa has poor takedown defense and no get-up game. He notes Walker looked improved physically and should learn from his debut loss. Cody expects Walker to take Tafa down and control him, possibly earning a submission or decision.

Daniel Vreeland picks Valter Walker to win a decision, expecting him to look better than his debut. He notes that Tafa has been taken down and lost in the past, and that Walker's grappling could be the difference. Vreeland acknowledges the volatility and that Tafa has finishing upside, but leans toward the underdog Walker at plus money.

The host loves Walker as a plus-115 underdog, citing Tafa's poor takedown defense and ground game. He expects Walker to take Tafa down and grind him out, possibly finishing by ground and pound or submission. He calls the line a gift and is mystified by it.

Paul agrees, noting that everyone who has tried to take Tafa down has succeeded, and that Walker's best skill is wrestling. He warns that if Walker stands and trades, he'll get knocked out, but expects him to stick to the game plan. Paul also mentions Walker's improved physique and the need to see weigh-ins.

Angelo picks Junior Tafa as an underdog, noting his power and durability. He thinks Marcos will struggle to take Tafa down due to Tafa's size and hips. He plans to bet Tafa inside the distance decision no action, as Tafa has finishing upside and Marcos is likely to win a decision if he avoids the knockout.

Big Brady picks Marcos Rogério de Lima to win by first-round submission. He notes de Lima has more ways to win with his BJJ black belt and wrestling, and expects him to get the fight to the mat where Tafa is untested. He acknowledges Tafa has power and could land a knockout, but leans de Lima due to his grappling advantage. He says he can't have much confidence in either fighter.

Cody picks Tafa as a dog, expressing strong dislike for de Lima. He notes de Lima's poor cardio and tendency to gas after one round, as seen in the Stefan Struve fight. He believes Tafa's power will eventually catch de Lima, especially if de Lima tires. He sees Tafa as a live underdog at plus money.

Daniel Vreeland picks Junior Tafa, despite acknowledging de Lima's experience and grappling advantage. He is concerned about de Lima's recent knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, where he suffered severe dental damage, and questions his recovery. He believes Tafa's power gives him a chance, especially if de Lima is compromised. He notes Tafa's improvements and the fact that de Lima has been finished before.

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, calling him a 'bad man' who swangs and bangs. He likes Tafa's power and youth compared to de Lima. He hopes Tafa can keep the fight on the feet and thinks he is worth a dabble as a dog.

Jeff picks Junior Tafa as a dog. He is less worried about Tafa keeping the fight standing and more convinced that de Lima won't shoot takedowns quickly enough. He compares de Lima to fighters like Devin Clark who don't wrestle when they should. He warns that Tafa has one of the worst resumes of any UFC heavyweight, so he advises against betting heavily. He thinks Tafa's boxing will hold up.

De Lima has solid power, good leg kicks, and a grapple-heavy style to neutralize Tafa's punching power. He has matured enough to take the fight to the ground and keep Tafa from getting off. Expects a decision win.

Paul picks de Lima, citing his size and takedown ability. He notes that de Lima has a grappling advantage and can take Tafa down. He expects de Lima to use leg kicks and takedowns to win, though he admits he has no intention of betting this fight early.

Angelo admits bias as Parker Porter is a personal friend, but argues that even without bias, Porter has a clear path to victory through wrestling. He notes that Tafa has poor takedown defense and was taken down easily in his debut. Porter has solid takedowns and cardio, and if he avoids a firefight, he can control the fight.

Big Brady highlights Junior Tafa's serious power and good striking, but notes his poor takedown defense. He thinks Parker Porter will need to wrestle to win, but doubts Porter's ability to control the fight or finish on the ground. He expects the fight to stay at range where Tafa's power will be decisive, predicting a first-round knockout similar to his brother Justin's win over Porter.

Cody picks Porter as a plus money underdog, citing his wrestling and cardio advantage. He notes that Tafa struggled with takedown defense in his debut and Porter can lean on him. Cody is not highly confident due to heavyweight volatility but likes the value.

Daniel picks Junior Tafa, noting that he is a much better striker with fast hands and power. He believes Porter's only path is grappling, but Tafa showed good takedown defense early in his last fight. He mentions that Porter is being fed to Tafa as a winnable fight. He is confident Tafa wins if the fight stays standing, and expects a knockout.

James is confident Junior Tafa wins, citing his speed, technique, and youth advantage (26 vs 38). He doubts Porter's wrestling ability to get Tafa down and believes Tafa will land a knockout on the feet. He notes Tafa carries power late and could finish in round three even after being taken down earlier. He bet on Tafa.

The host is critical of Junior Tafa's inexperience (5 pro fights) and believes he is only in the UFC because of his brother. He notes Tafa gassed in his debut and has limited grappling. Porter has 22 fights, dropped weight, and looked better in his last win. The host expects Porter to grind out a decision, possibly with a submission, and prefers the underdog due to the experience gap.

Paul also picks Porter, noting his wrestling and experience. He mentions that Tafa's brother knocked Porter out, but Junior is a different style. Paul thinks Porter can grind out a win if he avoids getting clipped early.

Angelo picks Junior Tafa but is hesitant, calling it a sketchy pick. He notes Tafa's power, speed, and technical kickboxing, but questions his takedown defense. He bet $25 on Tafa at -195 as an experiment based on line movement (Tafa opened as underdog, now favorite). He acknowledges the risk and advises not to blindly tail.

Big Brady picks Mohammad Usman to win by a greasy decision, but he wants nothing to do with this fight from a betting perspective. He notes that Usman's path to victory is to wrestle and take the fight to the mat, as Tafa is a much better striker but has questionable takedown defense and cardio. However, Brady is not confident in Usman, calling him 'very bad' and noting he got lucky in his last fight. He also mentions the wild line movement but stayed away from betting it.

Cody picks Tafa, calling him a world-class kickboxer while Usman is not good. He criticizes Usman's wrestling, cardio, and tendency to rely on one-punch power. Cody notes Usman's wins on The Ultimate Fighter were close and he struggled against older competition. He believes Tafa will win by knockout if the fight stays standing, which is likely.

Connor picks Mohammed Usman, reasoning that Usman is much bigger and stronger than Tafa, and that neither fighter is likely to get knocked out. He expects a wild brawl for five minutes followed by a slog, and thinks Usman's size will allow him to hold Tafa enough to win. Connor notes that Usman hits like a truck and has never been knocked out.

Mohammad Usman has a massive experience advantage over Junior Tafa, who has less than a year of MMA experience. Usman is a mediocre fighter but has fought higher-level competition. Tafa is a raw kickboxer with poor takedown defense, as seen in his regional fights. Usman should be able to take the fight to the ground and grind out a decision or TKO. The odds have moved significantly in Tafa's favor, but Usman's MMA experience should prevail.

Paul also picks Tafa, agreeing with Cody. He notes that if Usman doesn't shoot for takedowns, Tafa will likely clip him. Paul acknowledges the risk that Usman could use wrestling, but doubts he will. He calls it a low-level heavyweight fight where anything can happen.

The MMA Guru picks Junior Tafa, going against Mohammad Usman. He sees no skill in Usman's game and notes Tafa's combat sports experience in boxing, kickboxing, and Muay Thai. He thinks Tafa's activity and momentum are advantages, and that Usman is unimpressive with losses to Brandon Sales and a split decision over Eduardo Perez. He predicts a first-round KO.