Jhonata Diniz vs Austen Lane

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz	0	1 of 5	20%	4 of 9	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:09
Mário Pinto	0	29 of 33	87%	87 of 102	3 of 4	75%	2	1	7:28

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Jhonata Diniz	0	1 of 2	50%	4 of 6	0 of 0	---	0	1	0:09
Mário Pinto	0	12 of 14	85%	37 of 44	2 of 2	100%	2	1	3:55
2	Jhonata Diniz	0	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Mário Pinto	0	17 of 19	89%	50 of 58	1 of 2	50%	0	0	3:33

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jhonata Diniz	1 of 5	20%	0 of 2	0 of 1	1 of 2	1 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
Mário Pinto	29 of 33	87%	28 of 31	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 3	0 of 0	27 of 30

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jhonata Diniz	1 of 2	50%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
Mário Pinto	12 of 14	85%	11 of 13	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 2	0 of 0	10 of 12
2	Jhonata Diniz	0 of 3	0%	0 of 1	0 of 1	0 of 1	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0
Mário Pinto	17 of 19	89%	17 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 1	0 of 0	17 of 18

Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pinto (-125); Diniz (+110)

Round 1
The heavyweights in this match will make the cage rumble, with a combined 512 pounds of bones and squishy stuff between them, not counting referee Joao Claudio Soares. Brazil’s Diniz (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will channel the momentum of home crowd empowering him, and he may need it to hand Pinto (10-0, 1-0 UFC) his first pro loss. The judges may not be needed when it’s all said and done. The big boys clap their equally big gloves together.
It takes 32 seconds for a fighter to commit to a strike, and it is a Diniz leg kick. Pinto tosses one back to answer him, before skirting from side to side. When Diniz opens up with a right hand, Pinto drops to his knees and completes a double. Diniz hits his back, but muscles his way back upright in seconds. Pinto easily mat returns him, and Diniz elbows him repeatedly in the back of the head. Pinto advances to half guard, using his elbow to frame off and keep Diniz from sitting up or scrambling. Pinto climbs into full mount, and Diniz bucks but is stuck flat on his back. Pinto drives down a hefty elbow, and exerts heavy pressure.
When Diniz is about to get out of the mount, Pinto keeps moving and traps Diniz’ arm beneath his legs for a half crucifix. All the while, Pinto’s free arm bashes Diniz with elbow after unanswered elbow. Pinto suddenly transitions to a keylock, where he cranks it all the way up and over as Diniz thinks about giving up but grits it out. Diniz rolls over to try to get out, and Pinto rolls him back thanks to a triangle choke and the threat of an armbar. The man from Portugal repositions himself back to half guard rather than lose position altogether, and he lowers himself down to smother Diniz for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pinto

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second stanza, and like before, it takes some time for the heavyweights to engage. After 20 seconds of shadowboxing, they trade low kicks. Pinto changes levels in pursuit of a single, and Diniz shuts it down and puts his back to the wall. As the action slow down, Pinto surges into action with a surprise hip toss to chuck the 257-pound Brazilian on his back. Pinto lines up an elbow from each arm, and he sits up and uses it to either beat on Diniz further or keep him stuck on his back. Pinto slowly, calmly relocates from the guard to half guard to full mount, and when he passes, Diniz times a reversal.
Pinto quickly flips his man back over, and he hacks down with elbows. One slashes Diniz’ forehead wide open, and the blood is a-flowin’. Pinto scoots into full mount, and he sits up and jackhammers the Brazilian with a long flurry of punches.
Pinto grounds and pounds his opponent into a bloody mess, Diniz’ left eye swelling up in a hurry, and he does not appear to have the wherewithal to escape. Pinto takes advantage of his foe who has transformed into a tortoise laying on his back, his belly roasting under the bright lights of the arena, beating his legs to try to turn himself over, but he can’t. Not without Soares’ help, who steps in to call a halt to the heavyweight shellacking.
The momentum for home country fighters has certainly shifted tonight, and three more Brazilians remain—all betting underdogs.

The Official Result
Mario Pinto def. Jhonata Diniz R2 4:10 via TKO (Punches)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Angelo flips his pick to Jhonata Diniz after initially leaning towards Mário Pinto. He notes Diniz is a good striker with clean technique and power, and criticizes Pinto's habit of leaning his head back. He acknowledges Diniz's poor ground game but believes his striking advantage will prevail. He is not highly confident.

"I'm going Genaro Valdez. I did it. I talked myself into... I'm picking Genaro Valdez."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Big Brady picks Jhonata Diniz, citing better volume, power, and striking. He criticizes Mario Pinto for being low volume and boring, and notes Pinto struggled against Austin Lane, getting outlanded and knocked down. Brady expects Diniz to land bigger shots and more volume, winning a decision.

"Denise, better volume, better power, just a better striker. I think Denise should win this fight. I'll say decision for Denat the Denise."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Cody picks Diniz but is hesitant, calling it a 'middling ass heavyweight fight.' He notes Diniz's slow start but improving takedown defense and cardio, while Pinto is green and unrefined. He thinks Diniz's leg kicks and experience will edge him a decision.

"He's slower, he's plotting, he'll get punched in the face a few times, no doubt about it. If he can put in a performance like he did against Alvin Hines, work the legs, keep a high output, I think he'll …"

Bookie Beatdown

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

James picks Diniz as a slight underdog, expecting a striking contest where Diniz's experience and power give him an edge. He acknowledges Pinto's better boxing and potential grappling advantage but doubts Pinto will use takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Diniz but calls it a weak take and a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going to have to go with the guy who I feel like is going to be more effective in the striking, and that is Yonardo Denise."

Lucrative MMA

Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Mário Pinto

Lucrative James picks Mário Pinto, citing his youth (27 vs 34), undefeated record, and potential wrestling advantage. He notes that Diniz is a pure striker with no wrestling, while Pinto has more upside. He sees it as a close fight but leans Pinto. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and refers to his 'hammer of the week' video for props.

over 1.5 rounds

"I'm going to take Mario Pinto in this fight. I don't know who I took in the last fight. I think I called it like a pick them, but yeah, I feel like Mario Pinto's just got more upside than …"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Mário Pinto

Manpreet picks Pinto as an underdog, surprised at the plus money. He believes Pinto's athleticism, power, and potential grappling advantage (training with Stuart Austin) will overcome Diniz's striking. He notes Diniz's poor takedown defense and expects Pinto to mix in takedowns and secure a TKO finish. He considers the first round against Austen Lane a blip.

Pinto by TKO

"I'm kind of surprised that Pinto finds himself at plus 105 here. ... I love Pinto to pull off the upset and get the win like I said, by TKO."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Paul picks Diniz, citing his superior kickboxing experience and leg kicks. He questions Pinto's power and durability, noting he was knocked down by Austin Lane. He believes Diniz's cardio and technique will carry him to a win, possibly by knockout.

knockout

"Denise Denise by knockout. Uval Morer. Someone's head's getting knocked off. Probably Pintos."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz over Mário Pinto as an underdog. He believes Diniz has better kickboxing fundamentals, a tucked chin, and durability. He notes Pinto gets wild and Diniz will stick his jab. He predicts a TKO win in the first two rounds.

TKO in round 1 or 2

"I'm going to go with Jinata Denz getting this one done by TKO. I think it's an upset."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Alvin Hines

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz	0	112 of 182	61%	112 of 182	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Alvin Hines	0	82 of 259	31%	83 of 260	1 of 10	10%	0	0	0:05

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Jhonata Diniz	32 of 55	58%	32 of 55	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Alvin Hines	25 of 82	30%	26 of 83	1 of 2	50%	0:05
2	Jhonata Diniz	37 of 60	61%	37 of 60	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Alvin Hines	17 of 69	24%	17 of 69	0 of 4	0%	0:00
3	Jhonata Diniz	43 of 67	64%	43 of 67	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Alvin Hines	40 of 108	37%	40 of 108	0 of 4	0%	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jhonata Diniz	112 of 182	61%	94 of 160	3 of 7	15 of 15	111 of 179	1 of 3	0 of 0
Alvin Hines	82 of 259	31%	56 of 224	21 of 29	5 of 6	80 of 256	2 of 3	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jhonata Diniz	32 of 55	58%	26 of 48	1 of 2	5 of 5	31 of 52	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Alvin Hines	25 of 82	30%	18 of 74	6 of 7	1 of 1	24 of 80	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Jhonata Diniz	37 of 60	61%	30 of 52	1 of 2	6 of 6	37 of 60	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Alvin Hines	17 of 69	24%	12 of 62	4 of 6	1 of 1	17 of 69	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Jhonata Diniz	43 of 67	64%	38 of 60	1 of 3	4 of 4	43 of 67	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Alvin Hines	40 of 108	37%	26 of 88	11 of 16	3 of 4	39 of 107	1 of 1	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jhonata Diniz vs. Alvin Hines
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Diniz (-305), Hines (+245)

Round 1
2025’s International Fight Week will come to a close at the end of June with a pay-per-view that might not dazzle in terms of big names, but should deliver when it comes to action fights. Most of the bouts on the slate have a real chance of ending inside the distance, other than one we will talk about later. This heavyweight card opener is one of those that could wrap up in the blink of an eye. Given the high stoppage rates of 87% for Diniz (8-1, 2-1 UFC) and 86% for Hines (7-0, 0-0 UFC), referee Herb Dean may be needed before it is all said and done. The big men come together and bump their fists together before lobbing them like wrecking balls. Let the fun begin.
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Hines quickly moves to the center of the cage, pushing out his jab and following with an overhand right. Diniz avoids the first, but a second catches him on the chin. He tries to take advantage of the success by tossing out another, and when that misses, he rushes forward for a clinch. Diniz scoots out of the way and avoids subsequent right hands, while sticking the Minnesota native with a jab. Hines continues to hunt for his overhand right, and he nearly gets one in, but Diniz beats him to the punch with a check left hook. Hines doubles up on a jab, and he pegs the Brazilian with a one-two. Hines rushes forward to take the fight down, and when dragging Diniz to a knee, he fires off a knee that is barely legal as Diniz was lifting his knee in time. Due to the Brazilian’s jabs, Hines’ right eye is swelling up quickly. Diniz targets the damaged area with a few more jabs, and he busts up the newcomer’s nose.
Hines does not care, swinging his big right hand but coming up short. On a second effort, he tags Diniz. Diniz defends against a double-leg entry and swings with two winging shots, and the second finds its mark. Hines shakes it off and takes a low kick, and damage on that calf is welting fast as well. Hines goes to the well with his telegraphed right hand, and he suddenly changes things up with a body kick. He runs forward, and ends up crashing into the cage wall when missing. Diniz targets him with a solid left hand that briefly staggers “Goozie,” and it appears that every strike of Diniz is hurting the UFC debutant. The punches from Diniz cut Hines on his left eye, and his face is transforming into a horror movie in a hurry. Blood pouring out of his nose, Hines wipes at it a few times, and he backs off to avoid a leaping knee. Diniz staggers his man with a left hand, and Hines desperately spins with a back kick right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Diniz

Round 2
The big men bump fists to get going, and the cutman did decent work in cleaning up the busted Hines between rounds. Hines leads off with his overhand right, and Diniz slides out of the way with ease. Chants for “Goozie” come from a certain area of the area, which spur him into a double-leg shot. Diniz shuts it down, but he does eat a right hand when taking too long to get his hands back up. Hines is headhunting, with Diniz already opening the nose open up again with his accurate jab. Diniz chops down the front leg with another kick and lets fly a right hand, and Hines is tough but a bloody mess once again. Hines’ overhand right puts him in danger as Diniz times a counter, and the follow-up piston-like jab makes Hines frown. Hines whiffs on a one-two and fakes a level change, and Diniz is bouncing on his heels in a rhythm. He catches Hines with a left hand coming in, and he knocks the unbeaten fighter back with a looping left hook. Hines misses the mark with his right hand, as Diniz appears to have figured it out, and he nails the calf with yet another kick.
Diniz steps through to tag Hines with two crisp punches, and Hines is tough but his balance is starting to loosen. Hines shoots desperately when getting hurt, and he winds up with a huge right hand that skims on the side of the Brazilian’s dome. Diniz misses a front kick and a massive left by a matter of inches, and Hines gives chase but is also out of range. Diniz slaps away a responsive front kick and chips at the lead leg with his shin. Hines appears to get Diniz’ attention with a right hand, but Diniz is able to sway and blast Hines right back and develop a mouse near Hines’ right temple. Hines is losing steam and getting a bit sloppy, although he does connect with a body shot and has a spinning back fist ricochet off the guard. Hines scores a high kick as Diniz dips down, and Diniz clips him back with a left hook. Another left from Diniz makes Hines shake his head, and Hines shoots in for an unsuccessful entry. Hines misses on a spin kick, and Diniz smacks his foe with a left hook right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Diniz

Round 3
The heavyweights high-five to get going in the last round, and Hines is the aggressor as he rushes forward with two hooks. Diniz slips out of the way and absorbs a body shot on the way out, but it is a single strike that allows him to retreat and reset. Hines bounces a right hand off the temple and shoots in on the hips, but the Brazilian is a stone wall, who pushes him back and sticks out a left hand. They both score right hands at the same time, and Hines goes after a few jabs. Hines partially lands a right, and he sneaks in a shovel uppercut with his left. The offense for Diniz has fallen off a cliff, with Hines attacking his opponent to the body that open up punches up top. Hines pushes out a right hand, and his finger appears to slide into Diniz’ eye socket. Dean calls time as Diniz protests, and the Brazilian goes to a neutral corner to try to clear his vision. Dean asks if Diniz needs the doctor, and Diniz shrugs him off but Dean still brings the physician in. Diniz uses a cloth to wipe out his eyeball that is bloodshot and clearly wounded, but otherwise is good to go.
After about 90 seconds, they resume. Hines goes right after Diniz, hurling his right hand at him a few times to decent effect. Diniz lands, and he points at Hines to celebrate his success. He then goes to the body with the ball of his foot, and he loops a right hand over the top. Another right hand from Hines comes, and he narrowly avoids a left hand coming back. Two low kicks from Diniz connect flush on the welted lead leg, but Hines does not slow down. Instead, Hines drops down to a knee to shoot for an unorthodox takedown, and Diniz shucks him out of the way and stabs out a jab. Hines targets the head and body, and his big right hand finds its mark on the side of the melon. Diniz grits his teeth and beans Hines back with a right hook, and once more Hines’ face is starting to leak from…everywhere. Hines pitches out high kicks from both sides, landing one of them and surprising Diniz. He overthrows a right hook and almost spins himself around, but gathers his thoughts and eats a guard-splitting jab on the nose. Diniz stops another strange takedown and boots Hines in the face with his foot. They swing it out right to the bell, surprisingly going the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hines (29-28 Diniz)
Christian Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Diniz (30-27 Diniz)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Hines (29-28 Diniz)

The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Alvin Hines via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz (referred to as Genaro Valdez) because he believes Diniz's striking experience and power will be too much for Alvin Hines, who he sees as sloppy and slow. He notes that while Hines could win if he gets the fight to the ground, Diniz's kickboxing background gives him a clear edge on the feet, and Hines's level of competition is far below that of Marcin Tybura, who exposed Diniz's grappling. He is confident Diniz will land a knockout.

"Genaro Valdez is the pick and I'm pretty confident in that."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Big Brady sees a significant striking advantage for Jhonata Diniz, who has power and good cardio for a heavyweight. He notes that Alvin Hines comes from a BJJ background but doesn't wrestle as much as needed, and is taking the fight on short notice. Brady is concerned about Diniz's ground game but believes Hines won't exploit it enough. He picks Diniz to win by second-round knockout, as Hines hasn't shown the wrestling volume to take Diniz down consistently.

Diniz wins by second round knockout

"I got to go Denise here just because I think it's a big striking advantage. I think he could potentially be the first person to knock out Alvin Hines in this one."

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The host thinks Hines can make it competitive in his UFC debut, but ultimately believes Diniz will pick away on the feet and find a knockout in the first two rounds.

knockout in first two rounds

"I ultimately think Dennis picks away at him on the feet and eventually finds a knockout in the first two rounds."

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The host confidently picks Jhonata Diniz to win by first-round TKO, criticizing Alvin Hines for taking the fight on short notice and having a poor performance against a morbidly obese opponent. He believes Diniz's kickboxing and experience in the UFC will be too much for Hines, who is not ready for a proper big kickboxer.

first round TKO

"I'm going to go with Jonata Denz here getting an early TKO, a first round TKO over Alvin Hines."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Marcin Tybura

TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Marcin Tybura	0	35 of 49	71%	153 of 187	1 of 3	33%	0	1	7:14
Jhonata Diniz	0	15 of 29	51%	27 of 44	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:36

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	66 of 82	0 of 1	0%	1	3:57
1	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 14	50%	17 of 26	0 of 0	---	0	0:36
2	Marcin Tybura	32 of 44	72%	87 of 105	1 of 2	50%	0	3:17
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 15	53%	10 of 18	0 of 0	---	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Marcin Tybura	35 of 49	71%	33 of 46	1 of 2	1 of 1	9 of 19	0 of 0	26 of 30
Jhonata Diniz	15 of 29	51%	13 of 27	1 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 18	1 of 1	6 of 10

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Marcin Tybura	3 of 5	60%	2 of 4	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 3
1	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 14	50%	7 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	1 of 1	6 of 10
2	Marcin Tybura	32 of 44	72%	31 of 42	0 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 17	0 of 0	24 of 27
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 15	53%	6 of 13	1 of 1	1 of 1	8 of 15	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jhonata Diniz vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.

Angelo says he will bet on Tybura if he is an underdog, and mentions using the Discord for alerts.

"we're picking marcine he's old he's slow as hell the haircuts insane ... but he is a grinder that can get fights to the ground"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.

fight time under 9.75 minutes, under 1.5 rounds

"I do got a lean with tyur here I just think if he gets the fight down to the mat it's a wrap"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.

submission, round 1 (plus 800)

"I took Mar marching daura by submission and it just kind of comes down to like the Tai taiu iasa fight"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.

"Yeah, I think this is a good fight for marty and tibera. Yeah, agreed."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.

Marcin Tybura wins by KO/TKO (+525)

"I think Marine tybera is a thousand per gonna take down and grounded pound uh janat Den KN"

MMA Gambling Podcast

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.

"I think I'm willing to roll the dice on the underdog here"

Half the Battle

Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.

"I'm taking Charles Oar... I'm playing it tight now"

MMA Gambling Podcast

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)

Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.

submission

"I'm expecting Toro to Showcase his full MMA game here staying away from the Striking of Dennis getting this fight to the ground and eventually finding a submission opportunity"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.

"Ty bro is a play for me and again I'm glad it's early on the card because I may take a bath on this one"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.

KO/TKO in early rounds

"I'm going to go with janat denz... I think he's got the ability to pick up the takedown defense quite quickly... I can see janat denz getting a KO here"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.

Odds: Tybura opened +115, now -142; Diniz opened -129, now +127. Zane notes it's not hopeless for Diniz if he kicks Tybura's legs early.

"I this looks like I've done a type world win first and foremost, but if he gets caught cold i'm not going to be... No, it would not be a shock."

MMA Vivisection

WIN vs Karl Williams

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz	0	59 of 103	57%	63 of 107	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Karl Williams	0	29 of 84	34%	49 of 120	2 of 5	40%	0	0	2:39

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Jhonata Diniz	16 of 31	51%	16 of 31	0 of 0	---	0:00
1	Karl Williams	7 of 25	28%	7 of 25	0 of 2	0%	0:03
2	Jhonata Diniz	36 of 60	60%	36 of 60	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Karl Williams	12 of 38	31%	12 of 38	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 12	58%	11 of 16	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Karl Williams	10 of 21	47%	30 of 57	2 of 3	66%	2:36

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jhonata Diniz	59 of 103	57%	32 of 75	3 of 3	24 of 25	58 of 101	1 of 2	0 of 0
Karl Williams	29 of 84	34%	22 of 74	2 of 4	5 of 6	25 of 75	0 of 0	4 of 9

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jhonata Diniz	16 of 31	51%	7 of 21	0 of 0	9 of 10	15 of 29	1 of 2	0 of 0
1	Karl Williams	7 of 25	28%	6 of 24	0 of 0	1 of 1	7 of 25	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jhonata Diniz	36 of 60	60%	21 of 45	2 of 2	13 of 13	36 of 60	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Karl Williams	12 of 38	31%	10 of 34	1 of 3	1 of 1	12 of 38	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Jhonata Diniz	7 of 12	58%	4 of 9	1 of 1	2 of 2	7 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Karl Williams	10 of 21	47%	6 of 16	1 of 1	3 of 4	6 of 12	0 of 0	4 of 9

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Jhonata Diniz vs. Karl Williams
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-205), Diniz (+170)

Round 1
They keep the line moving with a heavyweight clash between Williams (10-1, 3-0 UFC) and the unbeaten Diniz (7-0, 1-0 UFC). The 34-year-old Williams, who operates out of Xtreme Couture, has been a pleasant surprise thus far as a mostly one-dimensional wrestler. Chris Tognoni handles the officiating duties. They step forward, greet one another with a touch of gloves and get down to business. Diniz paws with his jab. Williams responds in kind. Strong inside leg kick from Diniz. He then goes to the outside of the same leg. The Brazilian steps into hooks from both hands, grazing the target. Williams much heavier on his feet than his opponent. Another kick to the lower leg from Diniz. Williams backs him up with a right hand. Diniz staggers him with a check left hook and gives chase. Williams fires back. Diniz continues to target the leg, then unleashes a right hook-left hook volley. Williams wobbles again. Diniz stays patient and works from the outside. They paw at each other with jabs. Inside leg kick from Diniz. A minute to go in the round. Williams blocks a head kick, then doubles up on his jab and shoots on the hips. Diniz circles out into open space. Rough round so far for Williams. Diniz narrowly misses a left hook, then fires another kick to the inside of Williams’ lead leg.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz

Round 2
Diniz in charge as Round 2 begins. Jabs from Williams. Diniz doubles up on his left hook, resets and does so ago. They exchange in the center. Nothing lands. Leg kick from Diniz. Williams paws with his jab but continues to absorb damage to his lower extremities. Not a recipe for success so far for the Virgin Islands native. Diniz starting to get busier with his hands. If Williams thinks he can win a striking battle here, he appears to be sorely mistaken. Diniz dodges a one-two, hunts for openings, connects with a leg kick and follows a double jab with an overhand right. Another leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams now reacting to the feints. Blood trickling from Diniz’s nose. He sticks Williams with a right hand, then a left. Diniz follows a jab with a left hook to the body. Williams counters, putting more damage on the Brazilian’s nose. Push kick to the thigh from Williams. They exchange with 20 seconds left. Diniz misses a left hook, then plows his shin into Williams’ thigh. He sticks Williams with a right hand as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz

Round 3
Williams probably needs a finish if he wants to keep his undefeated UFC record. Tentative start for both men. One-two from Williams misfires. Body kick from Diniz, who has never been to a third round before now. Leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams paws with his jab. Diniz gives him pause with sweeping hooks from both hands. Leg kick from Diniz. Left hook connects, and Williams is on skates. He shoots on a takedown and briefly drives Diniz to the canvas. Diniz gets back to his feet, only to be taken down again. One has to wonder Williams did not take this approach sooner. Williams works from half guard. No ground-and-pound yet. He controls the wrist and starts feeding Diniz punches. He mixes in a few elbows but lacks the intensity he needs. The door is open for Williams with a minute to go. Diniz doing a good job defending and stalling. Williams pounds the body with short punches, then takes aim at the head. Diniz clearly hanging on in a bid to kill the clock here. Williams gets busy with hammerfists across the final 10 seconds but cannot nail down the finish.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)

The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Karl Williams

Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.

"Carl Williams is going to be the pick"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Karl Williams

Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.

Williams by decision

"give me grappling small cage don't have to move too much to cut off angles and get this guy up against the fence make sure you protect your head while you're you're sinking underneath and peel them to to the …"

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.

Diniz by knockout; live betting opportunity if Diniz is +250/+300 after first round

"I got to take a little bit of a shot on denz as a dog in this spot if you are a little bit too hesitant in the early going here I think this is a great live betting spot …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Karl Williams

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.

"on paper this one should just be very straightforward Carl Williams takes him down controls him wins a decision rinse and repeat over three rounds Easy Money"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.

"I'm going to go with janata denz I know he got held down by Austin Lane however he stayed safe and when he got his opportunity put the guy out cold"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Austen Lane

KO (punches) R2 2:12 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz	0	17 of 37	45%	43 of 73	1 of 4	25%	0	0	4:29
Austen Lane	1	20 of 33	60%	31 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:32

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Jhonata Diniz	0	9 of 19	47%	35 of 55	1 of 1	100%	4:10
1	Austen Lane	0	1 of 2	50%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Jhonata Diniz	0	8 of 18	44%	8 of 18	0 of 3	0%	0:19
2	Austen Lane	1	19 of 31	61%	26 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:32

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jhonata Diniz	17 of 37	45%	15 of 34	2 of 3	0 of 0	11 of 25	0 of 0	6 of 12
Austen Lane	20 of 33	60%	15 of 28	4 of 4	1 of 1	16 of 25	4 of 8	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jhonata Diniz	9 of 19	47%	7 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 7	0 of 0	6 of 12
1	Austen Lane	1 of 2	50%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 18	44%	8 of 17	0 of 1	0 of 0	8 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Austen Lane	19 of 31	61%	15 of 27	4 of 4	0 of 0	15 of 23	4 of 8	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Austen Lane vs. Jhonata Diniz

Round 1
Lane lands a nice body kick and has a clear speed advantage. Diniz is taken down. Lane gets into half-guard and is landing some solid elbows. Diniz is struggling and trying to get back to his feet, but to no avail. Lane postures up and lands thudding punches. Lane is in full control. Diniz briefly gets guard again but loses it. Lane sits up and lands punches. 30 seconds left. Lane gets into mount with 10 seconds left and does some good damage before the round expires.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lane
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lane

Round 2
Lane lands a nice right hand. Diniz lands a few nice counterpunches as Lane charges forward, trying to grapple. Lane eats some hooks and looks tired. Lane goes for a takedown, gives up and plops on his back. Diniz lands some leg kicks and then allows Lane up. Lane looks at the clock and then eats a right hand. Lane looks exhausted.
Diniz lands a left hook that stumbles Lane. A right hand and then another left hook sends Lane to the canvas. He is completely knocked out, and this fight is over.

The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Austen Lane via KO (Punches); R2, 2:12.

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Angelo picks Jhonata Diniz with medium confidence, citing his superior striking technique, power, and speed. He notes Diniz is a Contender Series product with professional kickboxing experience and clean combinations. However, he is wary of Diniz's untested takedown defense and the possibility of a 'Volker Walker' type flop. He suggests the over 1.5 rounds could be a good play if the line is plus money, as this could be a sloppy fight.

Over 1.5 rounds (if plus money)

"jonata is going to be the pick medium level confidence"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Cody picks Diniz, calling Lane a 'lose lose lose cut' type. He notes Diniz's kickboxing pedigree (fought in Glory) and believes his striking is far superior. He expects Diniz to land first and finish, though he admits it's a low-level heavyweight fight.

"it's got to be Denise it's just like CU I just think that Austin Lane is destined to be lose lose lose cut type of situation"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Daniel thinks Diniz is too technically sound for Lane, who is a former NFL player with a weak chin and no takedown attempts. He expects Diniz to get a knockout, though he notes Diniz's cardio is untested. He picks Diniz to win.

"I'm going to go Denise for the win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Diniz is a slick striker with good defensive grappling. He should be able to keep the fight standing and pick apart Lane. Lane has a questionable chin and may struggle with Diniz's combination striking. I expect Diniz to win by knockout, but the price is a bit steep.

"the prediction will remain the way you guys were expecting me to go here and that's going to be janat denz by knockout"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Paul agrees, emphasizing Diniz's striking credentials and Lane's lack of MMA experience. He thinks Diniz is faster, sharper, and more tactical, and will likely get a knockout. He considers this one of the better plays on the card.

"I do have Denise all right we got Jonathan Pierce taking on David onama"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his elite kickboxing background and training with Rico Verhoeven. He praises Diniz's fundamental stance, chin tucked, and composure. He criticizes Austen Lane for being scared to get hit and having poor reactions. He predicts Diniz will catch Lane with a jab-straight combination while Lane is on one leg, leading to a TKO.

TKO

"I'm gonna go janat denz I think he'll find a TKO"

THE MMA GURU

Austen Lane - Fight History

LOSS vs Iwo Baraniewski

KO R1 0:28 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Iwo Baraniewski	1	10 of 13	76%	10 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04
Austen Lane	0	0 of 4	0%	0 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Iwo Baraniewski	1	10 of 13	76%	10 of 13	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:04
1	Austen Lane	0	0 of 4	0%	0 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Iwo Baraniewski	10 of 13	76%	9 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	8 of 8
Austen Lane	0 of 4	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Iwo Baraniewski	10 of 13	76%	9 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	8 of 8
1	Austen Lane	0 of 4	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 1	0 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Iwo Baraniewski vs. Austen Lane
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Baraniewski (-600); Lane (+450)

Round 1
Lucasz Bosacki is the referee. Baraniewski opens with a low kick. Baraniewski gets inside on Lane in short order and
drops his adversary with an overhand right followed by a left hook to the chin. The Pole hovers over his fallen opponent and unloads with a few follow-up punches before Bosacki decides he’s seen enough.
Baraniewski has eight professional victories — two in UFC competition — and all have come inside of a round.

The Official Result
Iwo Baraniewski def. Austen Lane via TKO (Punches) R1 0:28

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Angelo picks Iwo Baraniewski confidently, stating he should run through Austen Lane. He notes Iwo has power, wrestling, and is well-rounded, while Lane's only successful wrestling was against a fighter with no takedown defense. He believes this matchup is designed to give Iwo a win to build the division.

"Evo Baroni should run through Austin Lane here, right? He's got the power to knock him out. He's got the wrestling to take him down."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Big Brady is very confident in Iwo Baraniewski (Berenice), calling this another 'sanctioned murder.' He notes that Austen Lane has a terrible chin, has been knocked out seven times (six by KO), and is cutting down to 205 at 38 years old, which he doubts will happen. He highlights Baraniewski's power and skill, predicting a brutal first-round knockout. He also questions whether Lane will even make weight.

Iwo Baraniewski by first-round KO

"Give me Berenice here. I think Berenice knocks out Austin Lane and I think he does it brutally."

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Cody also picks Baraniewski, noting Lane's history of getting finished and the difficulty of cutting to 205. He expects a first-round KO.

under 1.5 rounds

"I got EO by KO which was uh just like plus or minus 148 at that book."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Connor picks Baraniewski, echoing Zane's assessment. He calls Lane a 'short-armed brawler with a tiny reach' who nearly lost to Ibo Aslan. Connor notes that Lane's size makes him easier to hit and he cannot take a punch. He sarcastically comments on Lane's lack of skills and says the fight has 'disaster written all over it' for Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.

"And yeah, it's just this has disaster written all over it."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel Vreeland picks Iwo Baraniewski to win by first-round knockout. He acknowledges questions about Baraniewski's cardio and ground game, but believes Lane is not the one to expose them. He expects Baraniewski's power to be too much.

"I think he comes out here and he knocks out Austin Lane most likely in the first round."

Half the Battle

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Daniel picks Iwo to knock out Lane in the first round. He acknowledges Iwo is untested past round one but has no faith in Lane, who is dropping to 205 and older. He thinks Iwo's power and finishing ability will be too much.

"I obviously also got Iwo. It's just, you know, I already told you all the reasons I'm taking a wait-and-see approach on him, not cuz I have any kind of faith in Austin Lane whatsoever. I just need to know …"

Half the Battle

Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Baranowski is explosive and durable but unknown beyond round one. Lane has grappling but is likely to get knocked out. Baranowski is unplayable at -600; Lane is a dog or pass.

"Baranowski is completely unplayable at these odds."

Diary of a Pro Gambler

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

James picks Iwo Baraniewski to win via knockout in round one, citing his power and Lane's poor chin. He notes that Lane is moving down from heavyweight and has been knocked out before. He thinks Lane's only chance is to land a big shot, but Baraniewski's low center of gravity and judo make him hard to take down.

Iwo Baraniewski by KO, under 1.5 rounds

"I'm picking EO via knockout the under one and a half should be a good price as well."

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

The host is confident in Iwo Baraniewski winning in round one by knockout. He highlights Baraniewski's power and finishing ability, while Lane is an aging heavyweight cutting weight with poor durability. He expects Baraniewski to overwhelm Lane quickly, possibly via ground and pound or a big shot.

Round one knockout prop

"Give me Baronki round one knockout."

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Paul expects Baraniewski to knock out Lane early, given Lane's poor durability and weight cut. He likes the inside the distance prop.

under 1.5 rounds

"I think Ewell knocks him out, knocks him out in the first round."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

The MMA Guru picks Iwo Baraniewski to KO Austen Lane in the first round. He notes Lane has a suspect chin and poor striking defense, while Baraniewski has crafty power and good recovery. He expects Baraniewski to land a lead hook or check hook and put Lane out cold, as Lane tends to put his hands away when swung at.

TKO in the first round

"I'm going to go with Io Balani getting this one done. TKO in the first round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)

Iwo Baraniewski

Zane picks Baraniewski confidently, calling Lane a disaster. He notes that Lane cannot take a punch, falls over his feet when throwing more than one punch, and has no technique or tenacity. Despite Lane's size advantage (6 inches height, 7 inches reach), Zane sees it as a liability because Lane is easy to hit and cannot take shots. Baraniewski is a short-armed brawler but should overwhelm Lane.

Baraniewski opened at -450, currently -600; Lane opened at +300/+350, currently +450.

"We've run the test on Austin Lane. We've run it five times. Statistically, I think we've come up with a definitive answer. Not good."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Vitor Petrino

Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Vitor Petrino	0	3 of 6	50%	17 of 22	1 of 1	100%	2	0	3:03
Austen Lane	0	3 of 4	75%	3 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Vitor Petrino	0	3 of 6	50%	17 of 22	1 of 1	100%	2	0	3:03
1	Austen Lane	0	3 of 4	75%	3 of 4	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Vitor Petrino	3 of 6	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 4
Austen Lane	3 of 4	75%	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 2	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Vitor Petrino	3 of 6	50%	2 of 4	0 of 0	1 of 2	1 of 2	0 of 0	2 of 4
1	Austen Lane	3 of 4	75%	0 of 0	1 of 2	2 of 2	3 of 4	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.

"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout

"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700

"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO

"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Mário Pinto

KO R2 0:39 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Austen Lane	1	32 of 63	50%	36 of 75	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:53
Mário Pinto	1	13 of 23	56%	16 of 26	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:18

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Austen Lane	1	20 of 38	52%	23 of 46	0 of 1	0%	0:53
1	Mário Pinto	0	7 of 11	63%	10 of 14	0 of 1	0%	0:17
2	Austen Lane	0	12 of 25	48%	13 of 29	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Mário Pinto	1	6 of 12	50%	6 of 12	0 of 0	---	0:01

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Austen Lane	32 of 63	50%	17 of 42	13 of 17	2 of 4	31 of 58	1 of 5	0 of 0
Mário Pinto	13 of 23	56%	8 of 18	2 of 2	3 of 3	12 of 20	1 of 2	0 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Austen Lane	20 of 38	52%	11 of 23	7 of 11	2 of 4	20 of 35	0 of 3	0 of 0
1	Mário Pinto	7 of 11	63%	2 of 6	2 of 2	3 of 3	6 of 9	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Austen Lane	12 of 25	48%	6 of 19	6 of 6	0 of 0	11 of 23	1 of 2	0 of 0
2	Mário Pinto	6 of 12	50%	6 of 12	0 of 0	0 of 0	6 of 11	0 of 0	0 of 1

Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Mário Pinto has good takedown defense and power, but Austen Lane is athletic and experienced. He is hesitant due to Pinto's -330 odds as a UFC debutant and decides to avoid betting on this fight, calling it a 'conservative anchor' and suggesting it's the type of fight bet Sam might take.

Avoid betting; fight likely to be avoided

"I'm probably going to avoid this fight like once you get minus 330 on a UFC debut it's it's just there's a lot of questions"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Mário Pinto

Big Brady picks Mário Pinto, impressed by his well-rounded skills. He notes Austen Lane's only path is wrestling, but Pinto can stuff takedowns and has a striking advantage. He predicts Pinto will knock out Lane within the first two rounds.

Pinto by KO round 2

"I'm going to go Mario Pinto to win this fight and I think he knocks out lane within the first two rounds we'll call it a second round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)

Mário Pinto

The host is high on Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, believing his takedown defense will shut down Lane's wrestling and that he is the superior striker. He expects Pinto to find a knockout and get his hand raised.

knockout

"I do love me some Mario Pinto here who is going to be making his UFC debut I think his takedown defense will be good enough to shut down that side of Lane's game and I think he is the …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)

Mário Pinto

The Guru picks Mário Pinto over Austen Lane. He notes Pinto's technical striking and finishing ability on the contender series, despite looking flabby. He thinks Lane is dangerous but has been knocked out before. He predicts a TKO finish for Pinto in his debut.

"I'm going with Mario Pinter... probably by finish I'm going to say TKO for Mario Pinto in his debut."

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Robelis Despaigne

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Oct 19, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Austen Lane	0	23 of 38	60%	78 of 110	3 of 8	37%	0	0	8:58
Robelis Despaigne	0	31 of 46	67%	48 of 68	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Austen Lane	6 of 8	75%	14 of 21	1 of 3	33%	4:19
1	Robelis Despaigne	4 of 4	100%	12 of 15	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Austen Lane	12 of 22	54%	18 of 29	1 of 3	33%	0:53
2	Robelis Despaigne	16 of 29	55%	17 of 30	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Austen Lane	5 of 8	62%	46 of 60	1 of 2	50%	3:46
3	Robelis Despaigne	11 of 13	84%	19 of 23	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Austen Lane	23 of 38	60%	7 of 20	6 of 7	10 of 11	17 of 28	0 of 0	6 of 10
Robelis Despaigne	31 of 46	67%	23 of 38	2 of 2	6 of 6	21 of 36	10 of 10	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Austen Lane	6 of 8	75%	1 of 2	3 of 3	2 of 3	2 of 3	0 of 0	4 of 5
1	Robelis Despaigne	4 of 4	100%	3 of 3	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	3 of 3	0 of 0
2	Austen Lane	12 of 22	54%	3 of 12	2 of 3	7 of 7	12 of 22	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Robelis Despaigne	16 of 29	55%	12 of 25	0 of 0	4 of 4	16 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0
3	Austen Lane	5 of 8	62%	3 of 6	1 of 1	1 of 1	3 of 3	0 of 0	2 of 5
3	Robelis Despaigne	11 of 13	84%	8 of 10	2 of 2	1 of 1	4 of 6	7 of 7	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

Angelo believes the UFC is setting up Robelis Despaigne to become a superstar by giving him a favorable matchup against Austen Lane, who has a weak chin and was recently knocked out. He notes Despaigne's Olympic taekwondo background, insane power, and athleticism, but acknowledges his cardio issues and takedown defense problems from his last fight. Angelo thinks Despaigne will knock out Lane early, as Lane's chin is suspect and Despaigne's power is overwhelming. He calls the -400 line a discount and expects Despaigne to win easily.

Despaigne by KO

"rebellis wins this fight he's minus 400 I I'm going to say it feels like a discount"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

Big Brady picks Robelis Despaigne by first-round knockout. He notes Despaigne's incredible power, with multiple knockouts under 20 seconds, and points out that Lane has five knockout losses, four in the first round. He doubts Lane can get the fight to the mat or keep it there past seven and a half minutes, so he sees a clear path for Despaigne.

first round knockout

"I got to go to Spain here I don't really see much of a path here for Lane outside of the wrestling but I doubt he can keep it up past seven and a half minutes I'm going to Spain …"

DFS by the Numbers

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

Connor agrees, picking Despaigne. He notes that Lane is an NFL player who doesn't like fighting and has no heart, while Despaigne has a plan and confidence. He points out that Lane got knocked out by Greg Hardy in a minute, showing he's not cut out for MMA.

"Hard to argue with that. Yeah."

MMA Vivisection

Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 21, 2026 (fight day)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript.

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

Despaigne is a bad matchup for Lane, who has been knocked out in several fights. Despaigne can utilize his quick finishing approach to find Lane's chin. However, at the chalky price, Despaigne is not worth a shot; leaning on his round one prop is the best way to get bang for your buck.

round one knockout

"I believe this is a bad matchup for Lane who has been knocked out in several fights and I do believe that despain can utilize his quick finishing approach to find that chin of Lane but at the chalky price …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

The Guru picks Despaigne despite his last loss, noting that he wasn't finished and that his opponent Waldo Cortes-Acosta is a proven heavyweight. He highlights Despaigne's size and power advantage, and points out Austen Lane's history of getting knocked out by big hitters. He believes Despaigne has been working on takedown defense and will get a first-round TKO.

TKO in the first round

"rebellis to Spain is going to get this one done by TKO in the first round that's my prediction"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Robelis Despaigne

Zane picks Despaigne because he sees Lane as a fighter who doesn't like fighting and has no game. He notes that in their last fights, Despaigne was taken down but came back strong in round two, while Lane was dead after round one. Zane believes Despaigne's confidence and plan will prevail over Lane's lack of heart.

Despaigne opened at -446, now -370; Lane opened at +353, now +303.

"I gotta pick Despaigne."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Jhonata Diniz

KO (punches) R2 2:12 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz	0	17 of 37	45%	43 of 73	1 of 4	25%	0	0	4:29
Austen Lane	1	20 of 33	60%	31 of 45	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:32

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Jhonata Diniz	0	9 of 19	47%	35 of 55	1 of 1	100%	4:10
1	Austen Lane	0	1 of 2	50%	5 of 6	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Jhonata Diniz	0	8 of 18	44%	8 of 18	0 of 3	0%	0:19
2	Austen Lane	1	19 of 31	61%	26 of 39	0 of 0	---	0:32

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Jhonata Diniz	17 of 37	45%	15 of 34	2 of 3	0 of 0	11 of 25	0 of 0	6 of 12
Austen Lane	20 of 33	60%	15 of 28	4 of 4	1 of 1	16 of 25	4 of 8	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Jhonata Diniz	9 of 19	47%	7 of 17	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 7	0 of 0	6 of 12
1	Austen Lane	1 of 2	50%	0 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Jhonata Diniz	8 of 18	44%	8 of 17	0 of 1	0 of 0	8 of 18	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Austen Lane	19 of 31	61%	15 of 27	4 of 4	0 of 0	15 of 23	4 of 8	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Over 1.5 rounds (if plus money)

"jonata is going to be the pick medium level confidence"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"it's got to be Denise it's just like CU I just think that Austin Lane is destined to be lose lose lose cut type of situation"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"I'm going to go Denise for the win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"the prediction will remain the way you guys were expecting me to go here and that's going to be janat denz by knockout"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"I do have Denise all right we got Jonathan Pierce taking on David onama"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

TKO

"I'm gonna go janat denz I think he'll find a TKO"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Justin Tafa

KO (punches) R1 1:22 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Justin Tafa	1	11 of 14	78%	11 of 14	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
Austen Lane	0	7 of 14	50%	7 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Justin Tafa	1	11 of 14	78%	11 of 14	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:05
1	Austen Lane	0	7 of 14	50%	7 of 15	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Justin Tafa	11 of 14	78%	9 of 11	0 of 0	2 of 3	6 of 9	0 of 0	5 of 5
Austen Lane	7 of 14	50%	3 of 9	1 of 2	3 of 3	7 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Justin Tafa	11 of 14	78%	9 of 11	0 of 0	2 of 3	6 of 9	0 of 0	5 of 5
1	Austen Lane	7 of 14	50%	3 of 9	1 of 2	3 of 3	7 of 14	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, believing his power will be too much. He notes that Tafa has a great chin and solid kicks, and his big legs and hips make him hard to take down. Austen Lane needs to fight a perfect fight, dancing around and jabbing like Jared Vanderaa, but Angelo doesn't see that happening. He expects Tafa to defend takedowns and knock out Lane.

"I think taffa's power is going to be too big I think his big fat ass legs and hips are going to be too hard to get to the ground so Taff is going to defend a couple of sloppy …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Big Brady confidently picks Justin Tafa, citing his power and durability advantage. He notes Lane has three losses all by first-round knockout. He thinks Tafa will find his range and knock out Lane again. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"give me Justin Tafa I'll take Justin tawa to win this fight by first round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Austen Lane

Cody picks Austen Lane as a value underdog, arguing that this is a 50-50 fight and Lane has the better athleticism, speed, and cardio. He criticizes Tafa's level of competition and notes that Tafa is a one-round fighter with poor discipline. Cody believes Lane's physical advantages and improvement over time give him a legitimate chance to win.

Lane by KO (implied); three-to-one shoe bet on Lane

"I think Austin Lane can win this fight 50 of the time and he happens to have the ball the value"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but calls it a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes that the first fight ended in an eye poke and now Lane has to travel to Australia. He says his breakdown hasn't changed and he still picks Tafa, but with caution.

Odds mentioned: Tafa minus 200, Lane plus 170. Levi calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I'm gonna pick Justin taffa I think his dog or pass though."

Half the Battle

Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Lucrative James is confident Justin Tafa will win, likely by knockout. He notes that Austen Lane is very hittable and that Tafa has fast, precise hands. He dismisses Lane's paths to victory (catching a big shot or takedown) as low probability. James feels the extra preparation time doesn't change his view, and he expects a similar outcome to their first fight that ended in a no contest.

"I'm picking Justin tougher here without too much cause for concern I think he's going to get a knockout I'm pretty confident to be honest"

Lucrative MMA

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

In their first fight, Tafa closed distance and landed a big shot before an eye poke ended it. Lane has issues dealing with big strikes from power punchers. Tafa should crash the pocket and land a knockout. The KO prop at -165 is preferred over the moneyline.

Tafa by KO at -165

"I'm going to take tafa and tafa to win this fight by knockout minus 165 on him to win by knockout"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa but is hesitant, acknowledging that Tafa is not a high-level fighter but that Austen Lane is one of the worst heavyweights in the UFC. He notes that Tafa has the hometown crowd and that his brother's recent win might help. Paul admits he doesn't like the -200 price but sees Tafa as the more likely winner.

"I think Austin Lane is one of the worst guys in the heavyweight division so I think it's got to be tough"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Austen Lane

The MMA Guru picks Austen Lane as an underdog over Justin Tafa. He notes that in their first fight, Lane was winning before an accidental eye poke led to a no contest. He believes the eye poke will mentally affect Tafa, making him hesitant. Lane is on a six-fight win streak, all finishes, and is a lean 6'6" with 80" reach, while Tafa is shorter and less athletic. He thinks Lane has multiple paths to victory and could have a run in the division.

"I'm gonna go Austin Lane"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Justin Tafa

No Contest (accidental eye poke) R1 0:29 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Austen Lane	0	3 of 5	60%	3 of 5	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
Justin Tafa	0	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Austen Lane	0	3 of 5	60%	3 of 5	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00
1	Justin Tafa	0	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Austen Lane	3 of 5	60%	1 of 3	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
Justin Tafa	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Austen Lane	3 of 5	60%	1 of 3	2 of 2	0 of 0	3 of 5	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Justin Tafa	0 of 3	0%	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 3	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Angelo picks Justin Tafa, citing his incredible chin and power, and being almost impossible to take down. He notes Tafa should keep the fight standing and land big power. However, he acknowledges the fight could look like Tafa's loss to Jared Vanderaa if Austen Lane dances around and jabs his way to a decision.

"Tava should be able to keep this standing and just land that big Power so he's gonna be the pick here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Big Brady picks Justin Tafa, believing he is a much better striker. He notes Lane's poor striking defense and history of being knocked out. He has a concern that if Lane gets on top, he could finish Tafa due to Tafa's lack of ground experience. However, he expects Tafa to knock Lane out in the first round.

first round knockout

"I am going to take tafa to win this fight by first round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Cody picks Tafa, citing his toughness, durability, and experience in the UFC. He notes Lane's losses to low-level competition and thinks Tafa's leg kicks and inside fighting will be key. He acknowledges the danger but believes Tafa gets the win.

Tafa round 1 KO at plus 200 mentioned; under 1.5 rounds considered.

"I think he's tougher more durable has the experience has a number of fights in the UFC."

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Connor picks Tafa, agreeing with Zane. He describes Lane as a 'mess' with no demonstrated ability to fight disciplined at range. Tafa is a patient puncher who will wait for Lane to make mistakes. Connor notes that Lane's wins are against low-level competition and that he was knocked out by Greg Hardy. He expects Tafa to land a knockout.

"Okay. That makes two of us."

MMA Vivisection

Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa but with low conviction due to heavyweight volatility. He notes Tafa's power and left hook, but also his greenness and reach disadvantage. He thinks Tafa will clip Lane eventually but is not confident enough to bet. He mentions Lane's reach and experience but sees Tafa as the bigger hitter.

Passing on betting; picks Tafa but no bet.

"I'm picking tafa but it's probably my least least strong conviction on the entire card"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

The host picks Justin Tafa to win by knockout, likely in the first round. He believes Tafa's power will be too much for Lane, who may struggle to maintain distance. He notes Lane's defensive grappling issues and thinks Tafa will land a big shot when Lane crashes the pocket. He also suggests the fight doesn't go to decision as a prop.

fight doesn't go to decision

"give me taffa by knockout probably in the first round"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Paul picks Tafa, considering him more skilled and durable. He expects a first-round knockout from either side due to volatility. He mentions Tafa's youth and experience, while Lane is an NFL guy who lost to Greg Hardy. He doesn't love the price but picks Tafa.

Under 1.5 rounds considered; Tafa round 1 KO at plus 150 mentioned.

"I like taffa but I mean expect expect craziness here."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

The Guru initially considered picking Austen Lane due to size and athleticism but reversed after remembering Lane got KO'd by Greg Hardy. He calls Lane's opponents 'fat old men' and says Tafa is open but Lane's lack of talent is disqualifying. He predicts Tafa wins by KO as Lane rushes in desperately.

Predicts KO win for Tafa.

"Austin Lane got ko'd by Greg Harding I'm going with Justin tougher you can't get ko'd by Greg Hardy ever and expect me to think that you have any Talent"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Justin Tafa

Zane picks Tafa, citing Lane's raw technique and poor defense. He notes that Lane is a great athlete but a terrible fighter, with no discipline and a tendency to leave his chin exposed. Tafa is patient and powerful, and Zane expects him to land a clean shot on the tall, defensively lacking Lane. He mentions Lane's loss to Greg Hardy and his record of first-round KOs as evidence of his fragility.

"I definitely have to pick Justin Toffa here."

MMA Vivisection

Expert Picks (6)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

Over 1.5 rounds (if plus money)

"jonata is going to be the pick medium level confidence"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"it's got to be Denise it's just like CU I just think that Austin Lane is destined to be lose lose lose cut type of situation"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"I'm going to go Denise for the win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"the prediction will remain the way you guys were expecting me to go here and that's going to be janat denz by knockout"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

"I do have Denise all right we got Jonathan Pierce taking on David onama"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Jhonata Diniz

TKO

"I'm gonna go janat denz I think he'll find a TKO"

THE MMA GURU

Jhonata Diniz

Austen Lane

Career Averages - Jhonata Diniz

Career Averages - Austen Lane

Jhonata Diniz

Austen Lane

Jhonata Diniz - Fight History

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Austen Lane - Fight History

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Expert Picks (6)