Career Averages - Chris Padilla
Career Averages - James Llontop
Chris Padilla - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 147 of 271 | 54% | 164 of 291 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 112 of 180 | 62% | 117 of 186 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 40 of 66 | 60% | 44 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 27 of 41 | 65% | 28 of 43 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 63 of 119 | 52% | 71 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 44 of 75 | 58% | 46 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 44 of 86 | 51% | 49 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Marquel Mederos | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 147 of 271 | 54% | 71 of 164 | 30 of 40 | 46 of 67 | 124 of 242 | 22 of 28 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 112 of 180 | 62% | 81 of 147 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 20 | 91 of 155 | 21 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 40 of 66 | 60% | 20 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 15 | 31 of 56 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 27 of 41 | 65% | 14 of 27 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 20 of 34 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 63 of 119 | 52% | 23 of 62 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 43 | 61 of 113 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Marquel Mederos | 44 of 75 | 58% | 32 of 62 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 42 of 71 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Padilla | 44 of 86 | 51% | 28 of 62 | 11 of 15 | 5 of 9 | 32 of 73 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Marquel Mederos | 41 of 64 | 64% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 50 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Chris Padilla, believing his relentless pressure and smothering style will overwhelm Mark O. Madsen. He notes Madsen's composure and clean technique but thinks Padilla's pace and grinding approach will be too much, similar to how Austin Hubbard troubled Madsen. He expects Padilla to set a higher pace and win.
Big Brady notes Padilla has been an underdog in all four UFC wins but is now favored. He praises Padilla's pressure, toughness, power, and wrestling. He thinks Padilla will make Medeiros uncomfortable with pressure and takedowns, winning a decision. He dislikes the -195 price but picks Padilla.
Cody also picks Padilla, noting his well-rounded game and Mederos' defensive flaws. He thinks Padilla's calf kicks and clinch work will lead to a win.
Connor picks Padilla based on his recent surge in confidence and fight IQ. He notes that Padilla has figured out how to win, using pressure and pace to overcome more technical fighters. He acknowledges that Medeiros is a more natural athlete but trusts Padilla's determination and recent trajectory.
Daniel admits he has been wrong about Padilla before and finally gives him credit. He thinks Padilla will edge a close decision, though he notes Mederos is a solid point fighter.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marquel Mederos, believing the odds are skewed. He notes that Padilla sits back and waits for opponents, while Mederos has good footwork, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Mederos will outpoint Padilla over three rounds, especially if Padilla can't land a big shot.
James picks Mederos, believing his leg kicks and range control will be too much for Padilla, who is a late replacement. He thinks Padilla's style is not suited to beat Mederos.
Padilla's pressure, calf kicks, and Muay Thai should wear down Mederos over time. Mederos is fast and athletic but may fade after a round and a half. Padilla's durability and aggression have carried him in past fights. However, Mederos could win early rounds with speed. Padilla likely wins a decision or late finish, but the line is fair.
Paul is confident in Padilla, praising his veteran savvy, Muay Thai, and cage control. He thinks Padilla's advanced basics will overwhelm the green Mederos.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Padilla over Marquel Mederos. He calls Padilla a crafty veteran who has been winning as an underdog, with a nasty elbow finish over Rong Zhu. He notes Mederos had a split decision with Austin Hubbard, and believes Padilla's craftiness and back takes will earn him a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Padilla, agreeing that he is figuring things out while Medeiros is still floating. He notes that Medeiros fights like Tony Ferguson, relying on creativity and 50/50 exchanges, which is risky against a determined fighter like Padilla. He acknowledges that Medeiros could click, but Padilla's confidence and game plan give him the edge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 88 of 134 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 42 of 84 | 50% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 38 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 47 of 78 | 60% | 50 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 0 | 28 of 56 | 50% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 64 of 109 | 58% | 33 of 60 | 10 of 15 | 21 of 34 | 43 of 83 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 42 of 84 | 50% | 27 of 68 | 12 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 17 of 31 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 12 | 15 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 14 of 28 | 50% | 9 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 47 of 78 | 60% | 25 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 22 | 28 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 20 |
| Ismael Bonfim | 28 of 56 | 50% | 18 of 45 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ismael Bonfim because he is better everywhere, but he acknowledges the concern about Ismael quitting on the stool in his last fight. He argues that Ismael took a massive shot to the face and was not fully there, so he is not a quitter. He expects Ismael to win but notes that Chris Padilla is tough and a live dog.
Big Brady thinks Bonfim is the more skilled fighter with good boxing and volume, but worries about his durability as he has been finished in all five losses. He notes Padilla is durable and has heart but doesn't wrestle enough. He favors Bonfim's striking over 15 minutes and predicts a decision win, though he thinks a finish is more likely from Padilla.
Cody picks Bonfim but is not confident. He notes Padilla's awkward movement and counter-striking, and Bonfim's one-dimensional style and questionable cardio. He thinks Bonfim's volume and aggression might win a decision, but it's a risky bet.
Lucrative James leans towards Chris Padilla, though he admits he doesn't have a great read on him. He notes Padilla's dangerous striking and ability to win close fights, while Ismael Bonfim is more predictable. He expects Padilla to land better shots, possibly cutting Bonfim, and predicts a decision win. He also mentions Padilla's finishing upside via submission or doctor stoppage.
The host thinks Bonfim has underachieved recently while Padilla has overachieved, and expects a correction. Bonfim should dictate the pace, land more damage, and win on the scorecards in deep water.
Paul leans Bonfim but is not betting him. He thinks Bonfim's volume could be key, but Padilla's counter-striking and Bonfim's tendency to run into shots are concerns. He mentions a small shot on Padilla KO at plus 600.
The Guru picks Chris Padilla as a crafty underdog. He believes Padilla's experience, reach, and versatility (elbows, kicks, spinning attacks) will trouble Ismael Bonfim, who has struggled against gritty opponents. He expects a close decision win for Padilla, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 38 of 122 | 31% | 59 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 39 of 98 | 39% | 88 of 147 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 29 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 7 of 42 | 16% | 12 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 28 of 64 | 43% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 17 of 42 | 40% | 27 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 38 of 122 | 31% | 19 of 92 | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 37 of 120 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 39 of 98 | 39% | 20 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 13 of 29 | 35 of 94 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 3 of 16 | 18% | 0 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 9 of 24 | 37% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 11 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jai Herbert | 7 of 42 | 16% | 4 of 33 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 13 of 32 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 11 | 11 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jai Herbert | 28 of 64 | 43% | 15 of 50 | 9 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 27 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Padilla | 17 of 42 | 40% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Herbert (-125), Padilla (+105)
Round 1
Lukasz Bosacki will ref this featured preliminary bout at lightweight. It’s a very deliberate opening minute. Padilla lands a right over the top during an initial exchange. Halfway through the round and not much in the way of offense has landed. A Herbert kick hits Padilla’s forearm. A kick from Herbert lands below the belt, but Padilla doesn’t need a pause. A front kick finds the range for Herbert. Padilla shoots for a takedown and pushes Herbet into the fence. Padilla with some knees to the thighs late in the round. Padilla keeps the position, landing periodic knees until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 2
Herbert probes with a front kick. A Herbert head kick partially lands as Padilla throws a body kick at the same time. Padilla steps in with a body kick. Once again, offense is coming at a premium. Padilla sticks a jab. Padilla grabs a body lock after an ill-advised spinning kick by Herbert. Padilla has underhooks against the fence and he’s content to grind away her. Herbert tries for a hip toss, and while it doesn’t work, it gets the fight to the center of the cage. Herbert pumps out his jab and Padilla claims his eyes are poked, but there’s no stop in the fight. Herbert steps in with a right. An inside leg kick lans for the Brit, but Padilla shoves his foe into the cage. Padilla with some short punches and knees in close. Herbert lands a knee as they separate, but he can’t find the range on anything else before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Padilla
Round 3
Herbert opens with a pair of inside low kicks. A right over the top gets through for Padilla. Herbert threatens with a leaping knee but Padilla sidesteps without issue. Padilla shoots after a Herbert low kick and pushes his adversary into the fence. Padilla lands a short elbow on the break. Herbert lands a 1-2 as he stalks his foe. Herbert has picked up his volume this round, which isn’t saying much. Herbert pressures and is putting some straight punches together. Padilla lands a body kick. Padilla changes levels and secures a body lock. Herbert defends the takedown against the fence, briefly threatening with a guillotine. Herbert lands a knee in the clinch as Padilla drops low for a takedown. Herbert revreses and sperarates. Herbert follows a jab with a knee. The Englishman is doing better mixing in punches and knees, but Padilla, who was busted open at some point during the round, stumbles his foe with an overhand right on the temple during an exchange. Herbert doesn’t seem any worse for wear, though, as he keeps the pressure on. They trade leg kicks as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert (29-28 Padilla)
The Official Result
Chris Padilla def. Jai Herbert via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Chris Padilla, calling Jai Herbert overrated and noting his mediocre takedown defense. He believes Padilla's pressure, durability, and explosiveness will be key. He hopes Padilla wrestles more in this fight. He mentions the line is moving and he's picking Padilla while he's still a slight underdog.
Brady sees Padilla as a live dog who has improved a lot. He notes Herbert is hesitant and low-volume now, and Padilla has finishing upside with grappling and durability. Brady predicts a close decision win for Padilla, possibly with big moments and takedowns.
The host disagrees with the betting public moving towards Padilla. He believes Herbert is a cleaner striker with improved striking defense and durability, allowing him to operate at distance and win on the scorecards.
The Guru leans towards Chris Padilla as a slight underdog, citing his finishing streak and ability to get to dominant positions. He notes that Jai Herbert often has close decisions and may be nearing the end of his career at 36. He believes Padilla's dynamism and finishing potential will be the difference, and that Herbert's tendency to let fights get away will cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 49 of 88 | 55% | 49 of 88 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 68 of 105 | 64% | 73 of 110 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Rong Zhu | 0 | 33 of 52 | 63% | 38 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 49 of 88 | 55% | 26 of 61 | 12 of 13 | 11 of 14 | 43 of 81 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 68 of 105 | 64% | 36 of 51 | 8 of 12 | 24 of 42 | 62 of 98 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 27 of 54 | 50% | 15 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 11 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 35 of 53 | 66% | 16 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 24 | 35 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Padilla | 22 of 34 | 64% | 11 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Rong Zhu | 33 of 52 | 63% | 20 of 29 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 18 | 27 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Padilla as an underdog because he is well-rounded, explosive, and composed, with multiple ways to win. He notes that Rong Zhu's wins are on the regional scene and he headhunts, while Chris can scramble and snatch submissions. He plans to wait for prop bets like plus 3.5 rounds or win inside distance.
Big Brady picks Rong Zhu to win by decision. He notes Zhu is a big favorite at -265 and is improving at 24 years old. Brady thinks Zhu is the much better striker and his takedown defense is improving. He acknowledges Padilla can wrestle but lacks top control, so he expects Zhu to keep it on the feet and win a decision.
Cody picks Padilla, arguing that Zhu's competition on Road to UFC is weak and he has been taken down by lesser fighters. He notes Padilla's wrestling and submission skills, and believes he can neutralize Zhu's striking. He sees the -220 line on Zhu as too wide and takes the plus money.
Daniel thinks Rong Zhu has matured since his first UFC stint and is now ready. He believes Zhu's takedown defense is good enough to keep the fight standing, and that his volume, calf kicks, and athleticism will overwhelm Padilla. He expects Zhu to stuff takedowns and chip away at Padilla, possibly winning a decision.
Rong Zhu is a dangerous striker with improved takedown defense and get-ups. Padilla is a power puncher who relies on grappling, but Rong Zhu should nullify that and find a finish within two rounds. The host sees a more mature version of Rong Zhu now.
Paul is interested in Padilla's submission prop at +600, noting his recent submission wins and wrestling advantage. He believes Padilla can take Zhu down and control him, as Zhu has been taken down by lesser competition. He sees value at plus money and picks Padilla as an underdog.
The MMA Guru picks Rong Zhu over Chris Padilla. He criticizes Padilla's recent losses and long career, while praising Zhu's youth (24), activity, and evolution as a fighter. He notes Zhu has been fighting higher-level competition and is on a streak since being cut from the UFC. He expects Zhu to have a good performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.
Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.
Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.
James Llontop - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 67 of 113 | 59% | 74 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 90 of 236 | 38% | 112 of 260 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 19 of 63 | 30% | 19 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Maurício Ruffy | 1 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 26 of 78 | 33% | 28 of 80 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 3 | Maurício Ruffy | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 28 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 45 of 95 | 47% | 65 of 117 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurício Ruffy | 67 of 113 | 59% | 53 of 97 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 57 of 101 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 9 |
| James Llontop | 90 of 236 | 38% | 29 of 143 | 39 of 62 | 22 of 31 | 75 of 215 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maurício Ruffy | 21 of 31 | 67% | 13 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 19 of 63 | 30% | 6 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 13 | 19 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Maurício Ruffy | 24 of 42 | 57% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 9 |
| James Llontop | 26 of 78 | 33% | 8 of 49 | 10 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 25 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Maurício Ruffy | 22 of 40 | 55% | 19 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 45 of 95 | 47% | 15 of 58 | 22 of 29 | 8 of 8 | 31 of 77 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ruffy (-800), Llontop (+550)
Round 1
One of the largest betting favorites on the card—but still trailing the top name in a huge way tonight—will be Fighting Nerds export Ruffy (10-1, 1-0 UFC), who battles the skidding Llontop (14-4, 0-2 UFC) instead of Charlie Campbell. “Goku” might be in for a rough night, facing an adversary with a 100% knockout rate compared to his own at 50%. There will be no energy blasts allowed in this catchweight contest, so “Goku” will need to rely on his strikes alone. Before hitting the cage, the underdog required accommodations to shift this lightweight match to one at 165, pounds, and he still could not reach that limit. Seeing that Llontop’s back is against the wall, referee Kevin MacDonald checks the fight in, and observes a quick fist bump. Ruffy moves directly to the center of the cage, hopping out of the way of a leg kick and then dodging a second. Ruffy slowly edges forward, measuring a counter right hand but not letting it go. No strike lands until Ruffy connects with a jab 45 seconds in. Llontop whiffs on the counter, and Ruffy jabs him in the belly. Ruffy kicks the front leg and slides out of the way. Llontop surges forward, and Ruffy easily parries the strikes and gets kicked in the midsection at the end. Ruffy connects with a sharp jab and absorbs a low kick, and both men get behind a jab. Ruffy swings for the bleachers with a monstrous right hand, and he only buzzes past the hair of his adversary. The Brazilian smoothly dodges winging punches coming his way, and a few jabs get in on him. Ruffy uses his own jab to break up a big swing, and Llontop goes to the body to follow. Llontop prods out with jabs, and his body kick slips under the elbow. Llontop looses three big punches, and the right hand in the middle of it clips the favorite. Ruffy fires back, only to miss the mark. Two hard leg kicks from Ruffy draw a reaction out of his opponent, who surges into action with a lunging right. Llontop kicks the body and then the front leg, and Ruffy sits down on a shovel uppercut that nearly detaches Llontop’s head from his body. Llontop manages to avoid it in the nick of time, and he kicks the body of his adversary. Ruffy rips a right hand over the top, and he nails the underdog with a big left. Ruffy times a massive right hand that hurts Llontop, and he spins with a tornado kick and falls over. Llontop allows him to stand so he can blast him in the face with a right hand. Ruffy takes it on the chin and lands a punch and spins with a back kick to the ribs. Llontop kicks the front leg once before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Round 2
Before the round begins, the crowd chants “USA” but it is unclear who they are supporting between the Brazilian and the Peruvian. They get right to business after tapping gloves, and Ruffy starts promisingly with a spinning kick to the lead leg. Llontop chews up Ruffy’s front leg with a few kicks, and they both connect with jabs. Ruffy tries to time a jab with a spinning back fist, and Llontop is able to block it. Llontop walks the Brazilian down and pitches out a front kick, and he mixes things up with a leg kick and a few punches. Ruffy laughs it off and decks “Goku” with a ferocious left hand, and Llontop rolls around on the ground to regain his composure and work his to his feet. Llontop’s left eye begins swelling in a hurry, and he tries for a takedown but is shoved out of the way. Llontop doubles up on a jab, and Ruffy has his hands low and dodges back to avoid anything further. Ruffy blasts his foe in the face with a right hand from the depths of Hades, and Llontop is tough as nails and keeps on coming forward. Ruffy slips several jabs and a head kick with his hand on his hip, so Llontop goes after the front leg with kicks. Ruffy narrowly misses a big left hand counter when Llontop rushes forward, and he connects with a perfect right hand on the busted eye that stuns Llontop completely. Llontop shakes out the cobwebs, and he goes back to attacking with heavy punches. Ruffy busts him open with his mean right hand, and he lets Llontop dive after a takedown so he can counter him. Ruffy backs off, parrying and blocking a few punches, and Llontop is busy as can be. Ruffy times counters and hops away from big punches so he can pay Llontop back in spades. Ruffy throws everything he has, and he stops after missing and puts both hands on his hips. It is unclear if he is tired or trying to goad Llontop on, but the round ends before anything comes of it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ruffy
Round 3
There is a clap of hands to open up the last round, and Llontop is ready and rearing to go. Ruffy gets behind his jab early, using it to set up and draw out strikes. Llontop kicks the side of his opponent, and Ruffy tries to slip away but is grabbed by the Peruvian. Llontop dirty boxes until Ruffy turns him around, and he misses with an elbow on the break. “Goku” is fighting just as aggressively as before, pushing the pace and not fearing Ruffy’s attacks. Ruffy’s volume diminishes as he looks for single home run strikes, and one big left misses. Llontop drives knees to the body when he ties the favorite up, and a right hand from Ruffy on the break skims the side of his head. Ruffy scores two punches and Llontop kicks his front leg on the kneecap twice. Ruffy goes wide with booming right hands, his hands low when not striking. Llontop beats on Ruffy’s front leg with kicks, and Ruffy gets sick of taking these kicks and punches Llontop in the face a few times. Llontop kicks low and then high, and he drops down after a single that fails. Llontop tries again, and when the takedown comes up short, he knees Ruffy in the chest. Two hard inside leg kicks from Llontop get Ruffy’s attention, and the Peruvian is picking it up while Llontop is flagging. Llontop stomps on the toes when he gets up tight, grinding on Ruffy and working the body with knees and punches up top. Ruffy dodges and slides away when Llontop tries to trap him, and he appears somewhat compromised when his leg gets kicked hard. Ruffy goofs around and dances in place, lifting up a no-look elbow when he sees Llontop coming at him. Ruffy connects with a blistering right hand when Llontop approaches, and he is swinging for the fences. Llontop does the same, and they let one another have it until the final horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Llontop (29-28 Ruffy)
The Official Result
Mauricio Ruffy def. James Llontop via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Maurício Ruffy, describing him as an insanely good striker with movement like prime Conor McGregor. He expects Ruffy to defend takedowns and pick apart James Llontop, who is tough but not very technical. He predicts a showcase win for Ruffy.
Big Brady picks Maurício Ruffy, though he thinks the line is too wide. He notes that Ruffy is a very good striker with length, speed, and power, but sometimes starts slow. He believes James Llontop has never been finished but will likely eat big shots due to his aggressive style. Brady predicts a third-round knockout, as Ruffy has a 100% finish rate.
Cody picks Maurício Ruffy by knockout, citing his power and finishing ability. He notes Ruffy has knocked out all his opponents and is a product of the Fighting Nerds gym. Cody likes Ruffy by knockout at minus 145 or better, and is not worried about the money line.
Connor also picks Ruffy confidently, agreeing that Llontop is slow and cumbersome, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He expects Ruffy to land clean counters and finish the fight. Connor criticizes the matchup as a squash match.
Vreeland picks Ruffy because he hits very hard and Llontop takes too many punches. Even if Llontop is durable and doesn't get knocked out, Vreeland believes the early violence will be bad enough that Llontop will be down two rounds and cannot finish Ruffy. He expects Ruffy to throw an absurd amount of strikes and win by decision or late finish. He also notes that Llontop took 15 minutes of damage from Slava Claus, and Ruffy hits harder.
Daniel Vreeland picks Maurício Ruffy, highlighting his size, counter-striking ability, and potential to submit or ground-and-pound. He notes Llontop's slow speed and tendency to leave openings, and believes Ruffy can win by knockout, submission, or decision. He mentions Ruffy's training at Fighting Nerds and his well-rounded game.
Fox picks Ruffy because he is a heavy favorite and Llontop is taking the fight on short notice, which is bad against a powerful striker. He notes Ruffy's knockout power and Llontop's recent losses. Fox is confident Ruffy will win, though he acknowledges the line is steep.
Lucrative James leans toward Maurício Ruffy to win but is skeptical of the -800 price, which he attributes to hype and recency bias from Ruffy's viral scissor sweep. He acknowledges Ruffy's dynamic striking and finishing upside but notes Ruffy has been knocked out before. He thinks Llontop can make it close and that the true line should be around -300. He will not bet on Ruffy at -800 but picks him to win before doing full tape study.
The host thinks the odds are too wide but believes Ruffy is the slicker striker. He expects Llontop's aggressiveness to get him countered, but notes Llontop has solid durability, so the fight likely goes over 1.5 rounds with Ruffy winning on the scorecards.
Paul picks James Llontop as an underdog, citing his durability, cardio from training at altitude, and volume striking. He notes Ruffy has been knocked out before and has never gone to the third round, while Llontop has a deep gas tank and has never been knocked out. Paul thinks Llontop can take Ruffy's shots and outwork him late, possibly winning a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Maurício Ruffy, expecting a first-round TKO. He notes Llontop took heavy damage in his last fight and is fighting on short notice. He believes Ruffy's flow state striking and power will overwhelm Llontop.
Zane picks Ruffy confidently, noting that Llontop is slow and hittable, while Ruffy is a fast counter striker. He thinks Ruffy will land well-timed counters and finish Llontop. Zane criticizes the matchup as a squash match.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 96 of 229 | 41% | 97 of 230 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 93 of 249 | 37% | 97 of 253 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 26 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 37 of 85 | 43% | 37 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 25 of 77 | 32% | 25 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 0 | 33 of 83 | 39% | 33 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 42 of 109 | 38% | 46 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 96 of 229 | 41% | 49 of 172 | 30 of 38 | 17 of 19 | 92 of 223 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| James Llontop | 93 of 249 | 37% | 40 of 168 | 27 of 44 | 26 of 37 | 91 of 244 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 26 of 61 | 42% | 9 of 39 | 11 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 24 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 26 of 63 | 41% | 10 of 41 | 5 of 9 | 11 of 13 | 24 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 37 of 85 | 43% | 19 of 63 | 11 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 36 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| James Llontop | 25 of 77 | 32% | 11 of 56 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Viacheslav Borshchev | 33 of 83 | 39% | 21 of 70 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 42 of 109 | 38% | 19 of 71 | 13 of 23 | 10 of 15 | 42 of 108 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Viacheslav Borshchev as the better striker, but expresses concerns about his chin after being dropped by Chase Hooper. He thinks this should be a striking matchup and Borshchev is more technical. However, he says the bet will be on James Llontop to win inside the distance (decision no action) because Llontop could exploit Borshchev's questionable chin. He notes that if Llontop loses a decision, the bet is refunded.
Cody leans towards Borshchev because he is the better striker and this is likely a striking match. He notes that Llontop has poor takedown defense and gives up his back, but Borshchev won't wrestle. He thinks Borshchev's power and technique will be too much, but he is concerned about Borshchev's chin and recent damage. He says it's a tough fight to bet at -250.
Daniel Vreeland picks Viacheslav Borshchev, arguing that without a takedown threat from Llontop, Borshchev will get the kickboxing match he wants and is the better striker. He notes Borshchev has taken damage but believes he will pick Llontop apart.
Brevin picks Slava Claus, noting his good boxing and power, and that Llontop stands in the pocket too long, opening himself to counters. He mentions Slava's loss to Chase Hooper but downplays it. JP agrees, emphasizing Slava's power and Llontop's tendency to stand still after throwing, which will lead to Slava putting his lights out.
Paul picks Borshchev because he thinks Llontop is prone to poor decision-making and has a neck tattoo. He notes that Llontop was a favorite against Chris Padilla and looked terrible. He believes Borshchev's striking will be the difference in a stand-up fight. He also mentions that Borshchev's chin is starting to go, but Llontop doesn't have the wrestling to exploit it.
The MMA Guru picks Viacheslav Borshchev despite being hesitant. He was disappointed by James Llontop's debut loss and calls him 'skinny fat'. He expects a standup fight and trusts Borshchev's striking, predicting a late TKO or decision. However, he acknowledges Borshchev was destroyed by Chase Hooper, which gives him pause.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 0 | 19 of 40 | 47% | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| James Llontop | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Padilla | 19 of 40 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| James Llontop | 12 of 26 | 46% | 6 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.
Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.
Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.
Expert Picks (5)
Cody picks Llontop, citing his youth, cardio, and pressure style. He notes Padilla has lost all four step-up fights and is on short notice. He expects Llontop to overwhelm Padilla with volume and eventually finish him.
Daniel likes Llontop's takedown defense, clean striking, and solid output. He views Padilla as a regional journeyman who only got the fight on short notice. He picks Llontop to win, possibly by knockout, but won't lay -400.
Llontop is a pressure-heavy fighter who loves to move forward, grind opponents in the clinch, and take them down. He has good cardio and pace. Padilla is on short notice and has mediocre competition wins. I expect Llontop to walk through Padilla's early power, then overwhelm him with volume and output, finishing him in the second or third round.
Paul agrees, noting Llontop's win over Malik Lewis and Padilla's struggles against higher-level competition. He thinks Llontop's pace and power will be too much, and expects a knockout or clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks James Llontop, comparing his composure to JDM and Max Holloway. He notes Llontop's technical striking, counter right hand, and ability to stay composed in the pocket. He criticizes Chris Padilla for coming from a low-level promotion and taking the fight on short notice, which may affect his weight cut. The Guru also mentions that Llontop had a full training camp and is more prepared.
Comments (1)
Does James have any jiu jitsu, nice rear choke by Chris,
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