Career Averages - Alex Perez
Career Averages - Matheus Nicolau
Alex Perez
Matheus Nicolau
Alex Perez - Fight History
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Perez (-140); Mudaerji (+115)
Round 1
The six-fight main card kicks off with Sumudaerji (19-7; 6-4 UFC) looking to put the brakes on a ghastly 0-4 run for Chinese fighters thus far—even if one was an iffy decision—against perennial flyweight contender Perez (26-10; 8-6 UFC). The referee is Mark Craig. Perez is standing orthodox, Sumudaerji southpaw, and the “Tibetan Eagle” towers over the American. There are a couple of awkward-looking collisions at kicking range as both men learn to navigate the distance on the feet, but neither man has landed much of consequence a minute in when Perez drives his foe to the cage. He takes an underhook and punches with the free hand, perhaps looking for a takedown opportunity, but makes no real attempt to do so before Sumudaerji shoves him off. They reset and Perez surges forward with a trio of hard punches that back Sumudaerji off. Half the round gone and it’s still an awkward, somewhat tentative fight, with each fighter taking turns exploding with bursts of offense, but most of the hardest shots are coming from Perez, who is having an increasingly easy time getting inside the taller man’s range and landing to the head. Perez changes levels for a takedown and Sumudaerji sprawls beautifully. With 30 seconds to go, the Tibetan drops for a surprise takedown of his own and is snared in a tight guillotine. Perez adjusts his grip and Sumudaerji is stuck, but in danger of being choked, until the horn.
10-9 Perez.
Round 2
In the first serious exchange of the round, Sumudaerji lands a clean left hand that hurts Perez badly. He gives chase, landing in Perez’s half guard and dropping big shots. Some are blocked, but enough get through cleanly that referee Craig is looking on with new interest. Perez recovers, however, and once he wraps his foe back up in full guard, the action slows enough that Craig stands them up. Seconds later, Sumudaerji reaches out with a left front kick that impacts the cup of Perez, who goes down as if shot with a Taser. Perez motions for a bucket and promptly (and loudly) vomits. UFC color commentator Laura Sanko is nauseated by the sound of Perez retching, and we’re right there with her. Perez appears to recover, but then calls for the bucket once again and hurls. We still don’t know whether this thing is going to resume, but Craig indicates that Sumudaerji is being docked a point. After the prescribed five-minute break for the foul, Perez is still unable to stand, let alone fight, and Craig waves it off. Considering that he had already called the foul a point deduction, that should mean we have a disqualification on the way, but we get a no contest instead because rules don’t mean anything.
The Official Result
Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji ends R2 1:45 via No Contest (Inadvertent Groin Strike)
AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his length as an X-factor and his momentum from recent evolution. He notes Sumudaerji's takedown defense has improved significantly, and his striking at range will cause problems for Perez. AJ thinks Perez will have to resort to wrestling, which won't be easy. He predicts Sumudaerji's technicality will lead to a decision win, outstriking Perez and quieting the grappling flaw narrative.
AJ picks Sumudaerji, citing his southpaw stance, clean boxing, distance management, and improved wrestling defense. He thinks Perez's calf kicks are neutralized by the stance switch, and Perez may have weight-cut issues. AJ expects Sumudaerji to win a decision in China, using his reach and precision to outpoint Perez.
AJ picks Sumudaerji as his underdog lock of the week. He highlights Sumudaerji's length advantage (72-inch reach vs 65.5), improved takedown defense, and distance striking as key factors. He questions Alex Perez's consistency, weight cutting issues, and momentum, noting Perez has only one win since 2021. AJ predicts a decision win for Sumudaerji, citing his technical striking and defensive grappling.
Angelo picks Alex Perez, arguing that Perez's losses are to elite fighters (Figueiredo, Pantoja, etc.) and that he is a very good fighter. He expects Perez to win a decision, though he notes Perez may not score enough for DraftKings.
Angelo picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter with power and footwork. He notes that Perez has fought a murderer's row and is coming off a knockout win. He thinks the power will be the difference, but he is not betting on the fight.
Angelo picks Alex Perez, believing he is the better overall fighter with more power, better footwork, and higher fight IQ. He acknowledges that Sumudaerji has speed and volume, but thinks Perez's experience against top competition and his striking advantage will be the difference. He considers the odds appropriate.
Big Brady picks Alex Perez by second-round submission, citing Perez's wrestling advantage and Sumudaerji's poor durability and grappling. He notes Sumudaerji's wins are weak and he has been finished six times, while Perez has lost only to elite fighters. He believes Perez will take him down and choke him out, though he acknowledges Perez is a 'ball dropper' who has lost to top competition.
Cody leans Sumudaerji due to Perez's history of injuries, weight misses, and cardio issues. He notes that Perez often fades in later rounds and has pulled out of many fights. Sumudaerji is younger, taller, and fighting in China. Cody believes if Perez doesn't finish early, Sumudaerji can take over. He is waiting for weigh-ins to decide.
Levi picks the underdog Sumudaerji, citing his improved grappling defense and overall game. He criticizes Perez for missing weight, quitting in fights, and being inconsistent. Levi believes Sumudaerji can pick Perez apart and possibly submit him.
Jacob picks Alex Perez because he is the better fighter and Sumudaerji has not faced someone of Perez's level. He notes that Perez has wrestling and striking, while Sumudaerji's wins are against lower-level opponents. He uses a graph analogy to explain that Perez is above Sumudaerji in skill.
Lucrative James leans Alex Perez, citing his elite wrestling which should exploit Sumudaerji's grappling weakness. He notes that Perez can dominate on the ground, while Sumudaerji is a much better striker but Perez can compete there. He worries about Perez's history of mental lapses and submission losses but believes his recent frequent fighting helps his mental game. He predicts a submission win, though he is not confident and may not bet the fight.
The host picks Perez to win inside the distance, citing his aggression, durability, and improved striking. He believes Perez will crowd Sumudaerji's space and mix in takedowns, leading to a finish. He loves the minus 140 line and thinks Perez's confidence is sky-high after knocking out Charles Johnson.
The host loves Alex Perez in this spot, citing his continuous improvement and recent knockout win. He expects Perez to bring an aggressive striking game and possibly take the fight to the mat, finishing Sumudaerji inside the distance via knockout or submission.
Paul is torn but leans Perez skill-wise, noting that when Perez is on, he is a top-10 flyweight. However, he acknowledges Perez's mental lapses, injuries, and weight issues. Paul thinks -133 could be value if Perez shows up, but he is wary of the China factor and Sumudaerji's reach. He is not confident and may wait for weigh-ins.
The Guru picks Perez due to his wrestling advantage. He notes Sumudaerji is a good striker with improved grappling but still vulnerable to submissions. If Perez gets takedowns, he should dominate on the ground. However, he expresses uncertainty about which version of Perez shows up and says the striking is competitive.
The MMA Guru picks Alex Perez to win by knockout. He notes that Sumudaerji needs patient fighters who stand in front of him, but Perez is aggressive with power and offensive wrestling. He believes Perez will pressure and land big shots, knocking out Sumudaerji, who has been hurt before.
The Guru picks Su Mudaerji (Sumudaerji) over Alex Perez, citing Mudaerji's length, patience, and sniping ability. He believes Mudaerji's range control and punishing jabs will neutralize Perez's pressure. He notes Mudaerji's improved wrestling and is surprised he is an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 2 | 39 of 75 | 52% | 55 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Charles Johnson | 0 | 8 of 25 | 32% | 8 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 39 of 75 | 52% | 27 of 60 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 67 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Johnson | 8 of 25 | 32% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Johnson (-205), Perez (+170)
Round 1
All UFC fights stateside will plug on under the Paramount+ streaming service, so the distinction between early prelims and the “ESPN” or “Fox Sports” prelims is less significant than before. Former UFC Fight Pass maven Ant Evans suggested the breakdown of cards shift to the main card—no change there—the undercard, where the four-fight prelim slot prior to the main card is placed; and any bout before those nine should be considered a prelim. Nevertheless, the action continues in a catchweight affair as the skidding Perez (25-10, 7-6 UFC) failed to make the flyweight limit by two and a half pounds. A quarter of his purse goes to “InnerG” Johnson (18-7, 7-5 UFC), whose unique hairstyle is starting to have a mind of its own. The athletes will be officiated by referee Jason Herzog, and Perez offers his foe an apologetic glove touch that is accepted.
Perez darts straight to the center of the cage, where he tracks Johnson down and parries a body kick to race towards him. Johnson dings him with a right hand and slides out of the way to reset. Perez goes wide on a right hand, and he nearly gets his chin checked with a head kick. Johnson checks a few leg kicks and stays right before Perez, circling on the outside while Perez walks straight towards him. A Perez barrage comes up short, although a second effort does clip Johnson on the chin. Johnson fires back with a high kick, and Perez unloads with a vicious left hand that stuns Johnson and sets him down. Johnson pulls the cage to stand back up, still badly rocked, and he stands in front of Perez as if he wants to bang it out. Perez has no fear, and he drives a few knees into his jaw that hurt him once more. Johnson takes a right hand on the chin that shakes him up and forces him to bounce off the fencing to keep his feet about him, and Perez is all over him.
Perez marches down “InnerG” with impunity, and Johnson is being held up by the cage when Perez blasts him. One more knockdown is registered by Perez, and Johnson drops to his knees to desperately shoot. Perez takes anything Johnson offers and walks through it to tear in to the damaged fighter who has fought back to his feet again.
When Johnson lifts up an anticipatory knee, Perez loads up on a left hand and sends Johnson careening to the canvas for the umpteenth time, and Herzog has seen more than enough and waves things off.
Johnson still gets up on autopilot and runs towards Perez as Perez has walked away to celebrate his handiwork, and he even gets hold of Perez’ leg when Perez is trying to climb the cage wall. Herzog manages to cool Johnson down, who was damaged and in a bad way for much more than a minute. This is a crucial victory for Perez, who had only gotten his hand raised once in his last six outings. It is a bit of a tough break for Perez, because while he won and likely staved off a pink slip, his missing weight makes him eligible for a finish bonus. It takes champion Joshua Van mere moments to post on social media taunting the defeated Johnson, who laughs off any chance at a rematch.
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Charles Johnson R1 3:16 via TKO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alex Perez despite his four-fight losing streak, arguing the losses are to elite fighters and he was winning against Asu Almabaev before a mistake. He praises Perez's striking, low kicks, and wrestling. He notes Charles Johnson is a friend of the show but believes Perez can pull off the upset. He is very low confidence, rating it 51 out of 100.
Big Brady notes Perez finds ways to lose, often getting finished when he's winning. He expects Perez to win round one but fade as Johnson works into the fight. He predicts Johnson will finish Perez, likely by submission, as Perez has been submitted many times.
Cody picks Charles Johnson, citing Perez's poor cardio and tendency to make mistakes. He notes Johnson's improved takedown defense and striking volume, and believes Johnson will win the later rounds. Cody sees Johnson as a live underdog and expects him to win by decision or late stoppage.
Connor questions whether Alex Perez is actually a good flyweight, noting his record of 1 win in 6 fights over 5 years. He sees Perez as a bully on the front foot who lacks durability and defensive striking. Johnson, on the other hand, is clicking better, finding his timing earlier, and has a persistent, awkward style that can frustrate opponents. Connor believes Johnson can survive Perez's hot start and take over, possibly getting a finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Johnson to finish Alex Perez. He notes that Perez has lost five of his last six and has questionable heart and fight IQ. Vreeland believes Johnson's slow-starting style matches up well against Perez, who tends to fade. He predicts Johnson will find the chin or neck of Perez for a finish.
James picks Johnson, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He notes Perez often gets finished and that Johnson is more locked into MMA. He predicts a finish, possibly by submission or knockout.
The host picks Perez as an underdog, citing his forward pressure, leg kicks, and gas tank. He believes Perez can dictate the pace and outwork Johnson, who can be gunshy. He notes Perez's recent losses are to high-level competition and sees value at +175. He predicts Perez by decision or knockout.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Johnson's improvements and Perez's bad luck. He notes Johnson's knockout power and volume, and believes Perez's cardio will fail him. Paul likes Johnson on the money line and also considers the knockout prop.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson, citing his win over Joshua Van and his range advantage. He notes that Johnson's uppercut game will be effective against Perez's head-tucking hooks. He predicts a close decision, possibly with Perez having a good third round.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Perez's wrestling control time is often minimal and that he walks into danger. Johnson has a great flow and timing, and his ability to pressure and exhaust opponents is key. Zane also mentions that Johnson knocked out the flyweight champion and has a Bobby Green-like quality. He thinks Johnson can survive Perez's early pressure and win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 40 of 98 | 40% | 84 of 143 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 68 of 126 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 1:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 18 of 60 | 30% | 40 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 45 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 43 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 13 of 40 | 32% | 45 of 76 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 40 of 98 | 40% | 14 of 57 | 15 of 23 | 11 of 18 | 32 of 85 | 3 of 7 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 36 of 90 | 40% | 24 of 76 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 84 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 18 of 60 | 30% | 2 of 32 | 9 of 16 | 7 of 12 | 18 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 21 of 37 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 26 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 6 |
| Asu Almabayev | 13 of 40 | 32% | 9 of 34 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Perez | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Asu Almabayev | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almabayev (-200); Perez (+170)
Round 1
A pair of speedster flyweights grace the cage, with a potential passing of the torch moment possible even though these two athletes are separated by just two years of age. The relative elder statesman, former title challenger Perez (25-9, 7-5 UFC) grew up in the Tachi Palace Fights circuit after the WEC was absorbed by the UFC. His Kazakhstani foe Almabayev (22-3, 5-1 UFC) bounded around Russia and the CIS for his early career, taking fights in noteworthy leagues like Alash Pride, Tech-Krep FC, ACB and M-1 before landing in the big leagues here. Referee Dan Movahedi will keep things on the up-and-up as the prelims keep going, and the fighters elect to touch gloves.
Perez keeps his range early with front kick offerings, using them as range-finders and not to necessarily attack and cause damage. Almabayev waits to score a single low kick, and Perez charges him with fists flying. Almabayev responds with a wheel kick that collides with the guard, and Perez gets his leg kick back. Perez swings like a wild man, and his low kick opens up strikes up top. Almabayev fires back and then shoots down for an extremely low single down on Perez’ hips. Perez defends by putting his back to the wall and hacking at the side of the head with elbows. Movahedi warns him to not smack the Kazakh in the back of the head, and Almabayev spins Perez around but cannot put him down to the floor. Perez escapes, and he resets and rushes Almabayev again with a wide left hook. Perez mixes up his punches to the body and head with his flurries, and he ends a combination with a front kick. Almabayev kicks him in the ribs and just misses a spinning back fist. Perez darts in recklessly, arms wide, and he hurls punches as Almabayev shells up and rebounds off the wall.
Perez kicks and loads up on punches, allowing Almabayev to time knees up the middle for counters. Perez ignores them and fires off hard calf kicks, and he sways back to watch a huge right hand whiz past his face. Almabayev swings hard with his right, and Perez chips away with his kick. Almabayev kicks back, and they trade hooks at the same time. A pair of tiny tornadoes—not of the Tecia Pennington variety—go at it like whirling dervishes or Beyblades, depending on one’s preferred reference. They lay into one another violently, and neither appears to gain the upper hand as the pendulum swings back and forth. Almabayev times a takedown when Perez swings for the fences, tripping away the Californian’s balance and placing him gingerly to the mat. Perez elbows him in the back of the head a few times, and remains elbowing and not settling until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almabayev
Round 2
The flyweights clap hands, and Perez is loaded for bear and ready to unload. He proceeds to stalk Almabayev down and let his hands go. Almabayev is more than prepared with his uppercut to counter, although he takes a low kick and a right hand that put him on the floor. Perez dives down with a blistering right hand, and Almabayev shakes it off and bursts back to his feet. Perez sprints at his foe and wraps him up with a body lock to wrest him to the mat. Almabayev once more is able to get up without taking a lot of damage, and he pays Perez back with an uppercut and a right hook. Perez swings for the bleachers back at him, and their heads clack together when letting loose. Almabayev gets off another uppercut, and he reaches Perez at the end of a right hand. Perez practically runs at the retreating Almabayev to hit him back, seemingly possessing the strategy of trying to give Almabayev one back every time Almabayev strikes him. Almabayev spins with a well-timed back kick that pounds into the liver, and Perez does not love this and keeps a stiff upper lip before rushing Almabayev and tackling him to the floor.
Perez establishes himself on top, attacking with punches and elbows when he manages to find an opening. Almabayev elbows him off his back, and several of them bang into the back of Perez’ head, drawing a warning. Almabayev turns to his knees to get up, and Perez wraps him up with a head lock and knees him in the forehead. Almabayev swings his way out of the position and backs off Perez with his blows. Another spinning kick from the Kazakh misses the mark, so he shoots for a single. Perez hops around and puts his back to the wall to stay afloat, and he elbows Almabayev in the dome before letting go. Almabayev drives an uppercut home, and Perez goes for his own single that he uses to bowl Almabayev to the wall. Almabayev counters with a trip takedown, and the back-and-forth round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The round kicks off with another spinning wheel kick from Almabayev, which stuns Perez and opens him up to danger. Perez staggers to the side and gathers his thoughts to shoot in for a double.
Almabayev leaps in the air to snatch up a flying guillotine choke, wrapping his legs around the waist and wrenching the grip with all of his might. Perez, who knows his goose is cooked as the choke is vice-like and about to deplete him of his consciousness, has no choice but to tap out while still standing up.
This marks the fifth time that Perez has had to surrender because someone had control of his neck, and it is undoubtedly the biggest win of the career of “Zulfikhar.” On a two-fight win streak, he calls for a title shot and a post-fight bonus.
The Official Result
Asu Almabayev def. Alex Perez R3 0:22 via Submission (Flying Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, calling it an easy win. He criticizes Perez's continued employment and describes Almabayev as a flashy striker and dominant grappler with strong pressure and takedowns. Perez's leg kicks and boxing won't work against Almabayev's aggression. Angelo expects a decision win for Almabayev.
Big Brady leans Asu Almabayev by second-round submission, citing Perez's injury history and submission vulnerabilities. He expects Almabayev to get the fight to the ground and submit Perez, who has tapped out five times. He notes Perez's takedown defense but believes Almabayev will find a way.
Cody picks Alex Perez confidently, noting his world-class skills despite injury history. He believes Perez is the better striker and grappler, and that Almabayev is one-dimensional with low volume. Cody thinks Perez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Almabayev, and the plus money is worth the risk.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Almabayev but emphasizing that if Perez is in shape and healthy, Almabayev doesn't have a game to beat him. He notes Perez's injuries and the fact that he gets caught in subs or blasted by bigger punchers, but doesn't get controlled and out-wrestled. He calls it a good booking.
Lucrative James picks Asu Almabayev but with hesitation. He notes Perez's tendency to give up his back and get submitted, and his recent knee surgery. He believes Almabayev's grappling will be the difference, predicting a submission or close decision. He acknowledges Perez could win on the feet early.
Almabayev has a better gas tank and scrambling ability. Perez is coming off a knee injury and layoff. Almabayev's speed, power, and grappling should overwhelm Perez, leading to a decision win.
Paul picks Alex Perez, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes that Almabayev relies on takedowns and has poor striking volume. Paul believes Perez can defend takedowns and win on the feet, and the plus money is attractive.
The MMA Guru picks Asu Almabayev over Alex Perez, citing Almabayev's well-rounded game and ability to mix takedowns with striking. He questions Perez's inactivity and believes Almabayev's pressure will be too much. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Almabayev on 'vibes' due to Perez's injury history and unreliability. He notes that if Perez is healthy, Almabayev's game may not beat him, but he doesn't trust Perez to hold up. He mentions Almabayev's submission skills but says he's not a submission hunter, and that Perez has been competitive but plagued by injuries.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 41 of 77 | 53% | 45 of 81 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 43 of 78 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 25 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatsuro Taira | 41 of 77 | 53% | 22 of 49 | 10 of 13 | 9 of 15 | 31 of 64 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 31 of 66 | 46% | 25 of 57 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 28 of 59 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tatsuro Taira | 23 of 43 | 53% | 9 of 23 | 9 of 12 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 34 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 17 of 43 | 39% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 36 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tatsuro Taira | 18 of 34 | 52% | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 15 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Taira (-185), Perez (+154)
Round 1
The final fight of the evening comes in a rare non-title flyweight tilt, with former title challenger Perez (25-8, 7-4 UFC) coming in on short notice. He will try to hand high-flying unbeaten Japanese contender Taira (15-0, 5-0 UFC) his first pro loss. Action is sure to come from these two fighters, but before it does, they come together in front of referee Herb Dean to hear their final instructions and bump fists. It’s on with the show. While Taira is in the center of the cage, he steps back when a leg kick flies by. He throws one back, and Perez targets his front leg once more. The former title challenger goes after one more kick, and the two end up closed in on one another. Taira tries to set up the Thai clinch, and Perez dirty boxes and fights off level changes until he can break away. Perez sneaks in a knee on the break, and he digs several punches to the body. Taira pushes him away and lines up a power right hand, and Perez ducks and thwacks his front leg wither another two kicks. Taira splits the guard with two punches, and Perez darts at him with three punches, landing the third of them. Taira sticks out a jab and a head kick, and Perez rings his bell with two compact hooks. Perez again crowds him throwing bombs, and Taira gets his head knocked around briefly before disengaging. Taira settles down and jabs a few times, but Perez blasts with a number of uppercuts. Taira aims a knee to the head to break off the clinch, and he keeps his jab flowing. Taira follows one jab with a right hand, and he dodges the counter one-two. Taira rails his man with a sharp uppercut, and he finds another as Perez backpedals. Taira slaps the front leg with a kick, and Perez returns fire with one before charging in to tie him up. Taira cannot hold on, and Perez escapes and darts forward with his hands flying. Taira pushes off and swipes his fingers into the Californian’s eye, and Dean calls time. Perez uses a cloth brought in from the doctor to wipe his eye clean, and Dean goes over to warn Taira. After about a minute, Perez is good to go. Perez swings hard with punches to the body and scoops the Japanese fighter up to dump him on the floor. Taira attempts to sweep, but he settles for standing up and getting away. Perez pushes out a front kick and dodges a head kick as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez rushes out of his corner to invite a glove touch, and it is accepted as Dean warns Taira for outstretched fingers. Perez swings wildly with wide punches, and Taira spins him around with a leg kick. Taira snipes him on the way in with a right hand, and he appears to push off and poke the eye again. Perez complains it was a foul, and Dean calls time and asks for replay to check it. The replay shows the eye poke, and Dean goes over to Taira to give him a hard warning. They start up after around 45 seconds, and Perez re-measures his jab. Taira holds his left hand out and blasts the former title challenger with an uppercut, but Perez pays it no mind and unleashes a series of haymakers to knock Taira back. Taira scores a low kick and lands with his own heavy blows, but Perez lands the heavier of the two and it shows by Taira’s face changing shade. Perez works on the front leg with kicks on the inside and out, and Perez gets stood up on the way back with one coming back his direction. Perez shrugs off an uppercut to lob bombs, and he catches Taira flush and lets the counters graze his cheeks. Taira rushes at him and takes the fight down, and as soon as Perez turns, Taira takes his back while standing. Taira leans to one side in hopes of wrenching Perez down, and he keeps the body triangle tight while softening Perez up.
Taira keeps leaning to one side to tug Perez off-balance, and Perez falls awkwardly when leaning back. As he does, Perez’ right knee figuratively explodes, and Perez lets out a screech of pain as Taira is on top of him. Perez taps the canvas to make sure that Dean is getting involved, and Taira dismounts him and looks on with concern. Perez rolls to his back and writhes in agony, clutching his damaged limb as medical professionals swarm him.
This is an unusual situation because it is not simply a freak occurrence from a strange landing, but rather something Taira set up to target one leg and drag him down in that specific angle. Whether he was intending on causing fight-ending injury or simply moving to a more dominant position, it worked, and Taira moves his stellar undefeated record to 16-0 while passing the largest test of his career. The victorious youngster from Japan shouts on the interview that he is very happy, and he asks for a title shot. He confidently declares that he wants everyone in the flyweight division to line up in front of him, and he will mow them down. When Taira gets back into the cage again, it will likely be in a huge fight at 125 pounds. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tatsuro Taira def. Alex Perez R2 2:59 via TKO (Knee Injury)
Angelo picks Alex Perez as an underdog, arguing that Perez has shown he can defend takedowns against elite wrestlers like Muhammad Mokaev. He believes Taira's takedowns are not as good, and Perez has the striking advantage. He notes Perez's recent knockout win and experience. He thinks the plus 170 odds offer value and plans to place a bet.
Cody picks Alex Perez as a plus money underdog, arguing that flyweight fights are always close and Perez is a veteran with a wrestling base, BJJ black belt, and decent striking. He highlights Perez's 82% takedown defense and notes that Taira's wrestling is not good enough to take him down. Cody also points out that Taira struggled with Edgar Chairez, got dropped, and showed questionable cardio, which could be a problem in a five-round fight. He believes Perez's experience and power will take over as the fight goes on.
Daniel Vreeland acknowledges Alex Perez's resurgence and boxing/wrestling advantages but leans toward Taira due to his youth, reach, defensive striking, and opportunistic finishing ability. He notes Taira's incremental development and believes he can get past Perez, possibly by submission. However, he admits it could be a vet lesson and is not fully confident.
Jacob picks Tatsuro Taira, arguing that Perez has been outgrappled by top competition and Taira is more well-rounded than Mokaev. He believes Taira's striking and grappling are superior, and he will set up takedowns with strikes. He thinks Perez's takedown defense won't hold up and Taira will submit him. He is confident and offers to bet openly.
Perez's defensive grappling will shut down Taira's wrestling, which I'm not sold on. In the striking, Perez will dictate the pace with calf kicks to slow Taira and then open up his hands, finishing Taira in the third or fourth round.
Paul agrees with Cody, stating that Taira is a prospect who may look like a stud one day but the level of competition Perez has faced is far superior. He notes that Perez has been fighting the best in the division for years and is a big-time gatekeeper. Paul acknowledges the risk of Taira getting takedowns and taking the back, but he is still with Cody on betting Alex Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Tatsuro Taira by TKO. He believes Taira is better technically on the feet than Muhammad Mokaev, and that his grappling is more opportunistic and technical. He notes Taira's ability to take the back, reverse positions, and his good right hand. He thinks Perez may crumble under pressure and that Taira's youth and improvement over his career, plus having more notice for this fight, will lead to a finish. He also mentions the narrative of Taira opening doors for Japanese MMA.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 22 of 55 | 40% | 13 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 28 of 71 | 39% | 11 of 50 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Mark Smith will referee the main event. Perez takes the center of the cage and starts poking with his jab. Nicolau is patient and not firing back. Perez fires a straight right and connects with a low kick. Nicolau eats another leg kick. Perez fires off a series of body punches. Perez lands a nice uppercut and then a right to the body. Nicolau lands a huge counter with a left hook, but it's really his only punch this round, so he needs a lot more than just that. Perez lands a leg kick and then eats one from Nicolau.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez comes out pumping his jab and eats a leg kick. An uppercut slips past Nicolau's guard. Perez lands two leg kicks and is still the much more active fighter. Nicolau throws a 1-2 that goes off the guard of Perez. Nicolau eats a step-in right hand but fires off a leg kick. Perez lands two hooks and finishes the combination with a leg kick. Nicolau lands a push kick.
Perez hurts Nicolau with an overhand right. Perez follows up with a right hook, and Nicolau is out cold.
What a KO!
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Matheus Nicolau via KO (Punch); R2, 2:16.
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.
Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.
Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.
Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the more technical and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Nicolau has only been beaten by flash KOs (head kick from Dustin Ortiz, knee from Brandon Royval) and is otherwise undefeated since 2012. He criticizes Alex Perez as basic and lacking dynamic finishing ability. He predicts a decision win for Nicolau, possibly 4-1.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 87 | 34% | 47 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:44 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 47 of 104 | 45% | 56 of 119 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 69 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 18 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 15 of 32 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 87 | 34% | 22 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 9 | 19 of 74 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 |
| Alex Perez | 47 of 104 | 45% | 34 of 85 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 31 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 12 of 41 | 29% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 12 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 29 of 60 | 48% | 24 of 51 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 20 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 13 of 29 | 44% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 6 |
| Alex Perez | 8 of 17 | 47% | 3 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 5 of 17 | 29% | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 27 | 37% | 7 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-360), Perez (+285)
Round 1
The top of the flyweight division may have a bit of a logjam, the victor of this next matchup might nose in as a contender depending on the result. Perez (24-7, 6-3 UFC) might have come up short to the champ and then lost in his next fight against the current champion, but former title challengers tend to have shorter roads back to contention than the rest of the flock. On the other hand, brash unbeaten Mokaev (11-0, 1 NC; 5-0 UFC) could punch his ticket to a crack at gold with a mighty triumph tonight. Referee Keith Peterson draws the charge of what should be the most divisionally relevant match of the evening, and the two men touch ‘em up before getting after it. There will be zero nonsense going forward. Mokaev is quick to lead off with a leg kick, and when it misses, he aims a second that does reach the target. Perez paws out and motions that he suffered an eye poke, and Mokaev lets him recover when Peterson does not call it. Perez launches a head kick, Mokaev responds, and Perez falls over when throwing a kick back. Mokaev lets him up, so they can continue trading single strikes one after the other. Perez charges with a punch combination that all comes up short, and Mokaev responds with a heavy left hand that just grazes past the target. Perez continues powering forward, and Mokaev drives a knee to the side that hurts Perez. Mokaev lands a few more strikes before changing levels, and Perez shuts him down and escapes to gather his thoughts. Perez sits down on a strong right hand that stuns Mokaev momentarily, and Mokaev grabs hold of him and tries to take him down in a body lock. A wild scramble endues, and Perez fights off the attempt and gets to back his feet to land a right hand on the eye socket. Perez shuts down another distant shot from his opponent and makes him pay with a right hand on the exit. Perez whiffs on two punches on the way in, and he slaps a leg kick on the lead leg of his opponent. Mokaev goes up high with a kick that glances off the raised guard, and he darts in with a guard. Perez surges ahead, and Mokaev hops away from every punch but the last one. Mokaev eats it and shoots low for a single. Perez stands him up, but on the second effort, he gets dragged to his backside. Mokaev wraps his hands around Perez’ legs, and Perez turns to his side to get to his knees. Mokaev leaps on top when Perez scoots his way to the fence, and he takes three-quarter mount and starts raining down left hands. Peterson is watching very closely as Mokaev clubs his opponent with punches and a few elbows until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
The flyweights race towards one another to offer their glove touch and engage. Perez jabs his way forward, and he backs off when eating a front kick to the body. Perez lands a punch as Mokaev shoots, and Mokaev instead takes Perez’ back standing and briefly threatens a choke. Perez scrapes him off the side using the fence, and he leans himself on it and turns around when Mokaev changes levels. Perez shoves his man to his seat, and when Mokaev jumps back up, Perez sweeps the leg like Mortal Kombat to knock Mokaev back over again. Mokaev stands and attempts a takedown, and Perez shuts him down and swings wildly with a huge right hand. Perez catches his foe at the end of a left hand, and Mokaev drops to his knees and changes levels for a single. Perez hits the ground and bounces up, allowing Mokaev to swirl around and get hold of him from behind. Mokaev clings to the Californian, imposing his weight but not getting him back down to the ground. Perez snatches up a guillotine choke out of nowhere and pushes Mokaev down to the ground, and he abandons it to press Mokaev down to his knees and try to push him over. Mokaev turns the corner and attacks a single, and Perez’ elbows to the side of his head make him change his mind. Perez frames off and knees the body, and he is shoved away. Mokaev looses a single overhand right that is easily blocked, and Perez closes in and walks into a body kick. Perez tries to catch the younger man, but Mokaev is well out of the way before fists meet face. Mokaev resets and jabs, and he snaps out a body shot and a front kick to the same target. Perez blitzes and swings recklessly, and he succeeds in pushing Mokaev to the wall. Perez gets in several short uppercuts when Mokaev threatens with a takedown, and he hangs on with a potential submission until the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 3
The two men come together to hug it out before the round begins, and they back off and clap hands when Peterson clocks them in. Mokaev shrugs off a jab to plant two one-twos on the face, and Perez ignores them to plod forward. Perez connects with a left hand, and Mokaev falls to his knees potentially for a level change and not from damage. Perez sets up a guillotine choke that he uses more to keep his weight down to stop a takedown than to submit him. Mokaev explodes and turns the corner to take Perez’ back standing up, and Perez pops right back up when Mokaev sweeps him. Perez stands, and Mokaev hits a marvelous suplex. Perez does not stay grounded for more than seconds before popping up, and the two get back to striking range. Perez lands a shot, and Mokaev looks at him funny. Mokaev shoots in and is stuffed, and he backs off. Perez avoids a body shot, but Mokaev reaches him with an overhand right. Mokaev backs off and has a head kick land around the guard, and he attacks for a takedown that is not there. Perez stifles another attempt and keeps his man down on a knee, and Mokaev explodes into a single that also gets stopped in its tracks. Mokaev sticks out a one-two and shoots, and Perez chases after him taking strikes when not stopping takedowns. Perez peppers him with short shots, and he knees Mokaev in the head while Mokaev tries to keep his hand down. Peterson warns Perez from an illegal knee, and Mokaev spins around to stand up and grab Perez around the waist. This could be anyone’s fight, depending on how the grappling is scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev (29-28 Mokaev)
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo is very confident in Muhammad Mokaev, calling the -240 odds a discount. He notes Mokaev's dominant wrestling and composure, while Alex Perez hasn't won in four years and has no wins over active UFC fighters. He expects Mokaev to win despite sometimes making fights close.
Big Brady picks Mokaev, citing Perez's long layoff and 14 canceled bouts. He notes Perez has only 3 minutes of cage time in the last 4 years and was submitted quickly in his last two fights. Mokaev is younger, hungrier, and more active, with multiple submissions in the UFC. He expects Mokaev to submit Perez, possibly in the third round, but acknowledges the line might be off if the best version of Perez shows up.
Cody picks Perez as a dog, arguing that Mokaev has shown holes in recent fights and could have lost to Malcolm Gordon, Jafel Filho, and Tim Elliott. He notes that flyweight is the most competitive division and that Perez, despite the layoff, is only 31 and has fought top competition. He believes Perez's striking and grappling are superior to Mokaev's previous opponents and that the layoff may not be a negative if Perez used it to improve.
Mokaev is dominant in the grappling realm and good at finding submissions, but his striking is more flash than substance. He was nearly beaten by Tim Elliot, who caused scrambles and frustrations. Perez is a dangerous opponent who may be motivated to prove himself, but Mokaev should still win. The host expects the fight to go to the scorecards with Mokaev landing better damage and control, but it will be closer than the odds indicate.
Paul picks Mokaev but is hesitant due to Perez's long layoff and question marks. He notes Mokaev's youth and improvement but also his low volume and reliance on takedowns without much damage. He mentions the Apex favors Mokaev's style as there's no crowd to pressure the ref to stand them up. He ultimately sticks with Mokaev despite considering Perez.
The MMA Guru picks Mokaev to win by submission in the third round, following the trend of Mokaev's fights where he looks bad early but submits opponents late. He predicts Perez will win the first round, then Mokaev will chain wrestling in the second, and Perez will slow down and give up the neck for a rear-naked choke in the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 10 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 14 | 71% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 8 of 12 | 66% | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 10 of 14 | 71% | 9 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pantoja (-180), Perez (+155)
Round 1
Just like the previous match, the victor in this contest – depending on who gets their hand raised – could be next for the belt, depending on how the Deiveson Figueiredo situation shakes out. Both Pantoja (24-5, 8-3 UFC) and Perez (24-6, 6-2 UFC) have suffered losses to that man in the last couple years, while the former has beaten ex-champ Brandon Moreno already – twice if you include the victory on “The Ultimate Fighter.” The logjam of the division will be cleared up a little more after this fight ends, and referee Kerry Hatley is ready to keep the pace with these two 125-pound contenders. They touch gloves, and come out fighting. The brawl is instant, as Pantoja charges out swinging hammers. Perez is right there to throw down with him, and they proceed to smash one another in the face with punches in bunches. A brief lull after the wild early exchange leads to Pantoja changing levels, tripping Perez, and circling around to take Perez’ back standing. The Brazilian sets up a body lock and he starts busting Perez upside the head. Pantoja changes things up with a palm-to-palm face crank, and he makes Perez’s life miserable as he crushes on it with all his might. When that does not succeed, “The Cannibal” snatches up a neck crank with a grip on the other side, and he crushes down with his forearm. Perez leans back, struggling to stay afloat, and the crank is not even under the chin. It does not matter for Pantoja, who forces Perez to say “matte” and live to fight another day. This is a remarkable win for Pantoja, making a statement and shouting in his post-fight interview that he is the next flyweight champion. It may be hard to argue that he should be up next, after blasting through a former title challenger in about 90 seconds.
The Official Result
Alexandre Pantoja def. Alex Perez R1 1:31 via Submission (Neck Crank)
Big Brady picks Alexandre Pantoja to win by second-round submission. He considers Pantoja underrated, noting his wins over Moreno and Kara-France. He highlights Pantoja's durability and elite grappling, while Perez has been submitted multiple times. He expects Pantoja to mix in takedowns and eventually submit Perez.
Cody picks Pantoja, citing Perez's long layoff (two years), multiple fight cancellations, and a bad weight miss. He notes that Perez is talented but we don't know where he's at. Pantoja is a junkyard dog with good power, grappling, and improving cardio. He thinks Pantoja will clip Perez, hurt him, and possibly get a submission. He also mentions that the -180 price might be a bit steep but still favors Pantoja.
Daniel is high on Pantoja, calling him extremely underrated and talented. He notes Pantoja has beaten both Moreno and Kara-France on TUF and in the UFC, and has wins over Manel Kape and Brandon Royval. He thinks Pantoja will submit Perez after a brief striking exchange. He questions Perez's ability when opponents stand up to him, citing the Benavidez and Figueiredo fights. However, he missed the line at -150 and refuses to force a bet at -185, so he passes on betting.
Preet picks Pantoja, seeing either a club-and-sub or submission victory via grappling scrambles. He acknowledges Perez's skills—heavy hands, wrestling, calf kicks—but thinks Pantoja's opportunistic grappling and finishing ability will prevail. He finds the fight volatile and is confused by the totals, but ultimately sides with Pantoja.
Paul also picks Pantoja, echoing concerns about Perez's inactivity and weight issues. He notes that Perez is talented but hasn't fought in two years and missed weight in his last attempt. Pantoja has advantages in power and grappling, and Paul expects Pantoja to clip him with something and possibly get a submission. He says until he sees Perez on the scale, he can't trust him.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandre Pantoja by 29-28 decision. He expects Pantoja to win the first two rounds with takedowns, back takes, and body kicks, while Perez's leg kicks become a factor in round three. Perez may win the third round, but Pantoja's early work secures the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Perez | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 5 of 8 | 62% | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Perez | 6 of 14 | 42% | 3 of 9 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
After a long journey, we have arrived to the main event of UFC 255. A flyweight championship bout tops this card, as “Deus da Guerra” Figueiredo (19-1, 8-1 UFC) aims to record his first defense against the first fighter from Dana White’s Contender Series to ever get a UFC title shot in Perez (24-5, 6-1 UFC). Keeping this headliner on the up-and-up is referee Marc Goddard, and the glove touch precedes the final action for the evening. Hang on tight. Perez begins with a whiffing body kick, and Figueiredo misses with one of his own. Figueiredo slaps the body with a kick, and Perez charges in with punches but just misses. Figueiredo circles away to avoid a few shots, and Figueiredo kicks again to the body. Figueiredo lands a punch that may have hurt Perez’ eye, and he smells blood and attacks. The champ targets the body, and Perez kicks to the leg and then the body heavily. Perez ducks under a looping right hand and pursues a takedown, but Figueiredo keeps upright by hopping around and grabbing the fence. Goddard slaps his hand away, and Figueiredo falls over and attacks a leg lock. Perez twists through it and climbs down into his opponent’s full, closed guard. “Deus da Guerra” snatches up a guillotine choke and squeezes with everything he has. Perez gets to one knee as the Brazilian uses a vice-like grip to crush his opponent, and before Perez can stand or pop his head out, he is forced to surrender. In no time at all, Figueiredo defends his title against a tough challenger, and did so with style points. The champ has now finished his opponent in each of his last four victories, and may have tied the division’s all-time finish record in the process. In victory, Figueiredo says he is ready for Moreno, who won earlier tonight, and asks that UFC President Dana White makes it happen. With this event concluding with a pair of 125-pound title fights in the books, we will see you next week for an ESPN2 card topped off by a heavyweight rumble.
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Alex Perez R1 1:57 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Big Brady picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win inside the distance. He notes Figueiredo is a killer with heavy hands and a great submission game, while Perez has been submitted three times and is stepping up in competition. He thinks Perez will shoot takedowns and get caught.
Daniel picks Figueiredo, citing his killer instinct and improved nutrition. He notes Perez has a chin issue and was dropped by a head clash. He believes Figueiredo's power and pressure will be too much, and that he will be a long-reigning champion.
The host picks Alex Perez to win by decision, seeing value at plus 250. He believes Perez has the wrestling and calf kicks to trouble Figueiredo, and that the line is skewed by recency bias. He notes Perez's win over Formiga (who beat Figueiredo) and thinks he can implement a game plan of leg kicks and takedowns.
The MMA Guru picks Deiveson Figueiredo to win by first-round submission (guillotine choke). He believes Figueiredo will rock Perez, who will then shoot a bad takedown and get caught. He notes Perez's history of being guillotined and Figueiredo's power and submission skills.
Matheus Nicolau - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 38 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 22 of 54 | 40% | 55 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 22 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 21 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 35 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asu Almabayev | 16 of 42 | 38% | 8 of 26 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 7 | 12 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 22 of 54 | 40% | 7 of 36 | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 46 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asu Almabayev | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 9 of 21 | 42% | 1 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Asu Almabayev | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 22 | 27% | 1 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Asu Almabayev | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 11 | 63% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo is very confident in Asu Almabayev, calling the -162 line a bargain. He highlights Nicolau's declining chin and striking vulnerability, while Almabayev is a dominant grappler with flashy striking and phenomenal control on top. He believes Almabayev wins 9 out of 10 times, either by knockout or wrestling dominance. He sees no path to victory for Nicolau if his chin fails or if he gets taken down.
Big Brady leans toward Matheus Nicolau by decision. He notes Almabayev's hype is based on weak competition, while Nicolau has elite takedown defense (93%) and good striking, though he lacks volume and has a questionable chin. He doubts Almabayev can take Nicolau down or knock him out, so he expects Nicolau to stuff takedowns and win a close decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Nicolau. He emphasizes that Nicolau is a pure counter puncher who is difficult to close down, and that Almabayev's game may not serve him well if he can't get early takedowns. Connor also notes that Almabayev's recent wins are over slower, less focused fighters, and that Nicolau represents a big step up. He doubts Almabayev can knock out Nicolau, as Almabayev rarely finishes fights.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Nicolau is the veteran but will have a hard time against the grappler and relentless style of Almabayev. Almabayev will do a good job closing the distance and keeping Nicolau on the defensive, allowing him to grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Nicolau despite acknowledging he gets chinned sometimes. He believes Nicolau has elite takedown defense and will stuff Almabayev's takedowns, pointing out that Almabayev's wins came against lesser competition like Jose Johnson and CJ Vergara. He sees Nicolau as more well-rounded and expects a split decision win.
Zane picks Nicolau because he sees Nicolau as a pure counter puncher who will be difficult for Almabayev to close down. He notes that Almabayev struggles when he can't hit takedowns on demand, as seen in his fight with Jose Johnson where he got reversed and stuck in a triangle. Zane also points out that Nicolau has never been soundly outwrestled in the UFC and that Almabayev's striking is busy but focused entirely on gaining clinches, leaving him vulnerable to intercepting shots.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 0 | 22 of 55 | 40% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 28 of 71 | 39% | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 0 | 12 of 24 | 50% | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Perez | 22 of 55 | 40% | 13 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 22 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 28 of 71 | 39% | 11 of 50 | 8 of 11 | 9 of 10 | 28 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Perez | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 23 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Perez | 12 of 24 | 50% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 15 of 36 | 41% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Mark Smith will referee the main event. Perez takes the center of the cage and starts poking with his jab. Nicolau is patient and not firing back. Perez fires a straight right and connects with a low kick. Nicolau eats another leg kick. Perez fires off a series of body punches. Perez lands a nice uppercut and then a right to the body. Nicolau lands a huge counter with a left hook, but it's really his only punch this round, so he needs a lot more than just that. Perez lands a leg kick and then eats one from Nicolau.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Perez
Round 2
Perez comes out pumping his jab and eats a leg kick. An uppercut slips past Nicolau's guard. Perez lands two leg kicks and is still the much more active fighter. Nicolau throws a 1-2 that goes off the guard of Perez. Nicolau eats a step-in right hand but fires off a leg kick. Perez lands two hooks and finishes the combination with a leg kick. Nicolau lands a push kick.
Perez hurts Nicolau with an overhand right. Perez follows up with a right hook, and Nicolau is out cold.
What a KO!
The Official Result
Alex Perez def. Matheus Nicolau via KO (Punch); R2, 2:16.
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.
Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.
Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.
Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the more technical and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Nicolau has only been beaten by flash KOs (head kick from Dustin Ortiz, knee from Brandon Royval) and is otherwise undefeated since 2012. He criticizes Alex Perez as basic and lacking dynamic finishing ability. He predicts a decision win for Nicolau, possibly 4-1.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 1 | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Royval | 13 of 22 | 59% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking and methodical grappling. He believes Nicolau's technical striking will overcome Royval's chaos, and that Royval won't be able to take Nicolau down, making it a kickboxing match where Nicolau shines. He notes Royval was dropped badly by Schnell. He has a half-unit moneyline bet on Nicolau at -155.
Big Brady picks Brandon Royval to win by first-round knockout. He describes Royval as a wild, unique fighter who thrives in chaos, while Nicolau is calm and composed. He believes Royval's style will force a brawl, and notes Nicolau has been knocked out before. He expects fireworks and a finish.
Cody thinks Nicolau is technically sound and should weather Royval's early chaos. He notes Royval is dangerous early but tends to fade and is injury-prone. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Nicolau's counter striking is excellently timed and that he has the wrestling to handle Royval's scrambles. He also notes that Nicolau is a solid positional grappler and can be the one with key switch-ups.
Royval's chaos and output will overwhelm Nicolau, who tends to have close fights and low output. Royval's scrambling and submission threat create opportunities. Nicolau's discipline may crack under pressure. Royval can finish inside the distance, as his style leads to finishes. Under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
Paul agrees, calling Royval 'frail' and noting his tendency to get finished. He thinks Nicolau's accurate counter-striking and durability will lead to a finish or clear decision. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, praising his technical, composed style and BJJ background. He believes Nicolau will read Royval's wild, tornado-like approach and make him pay, potentially by submission or KO. He notes Royval's size and unpredictability but thinks Nicolau's polish and 93% takedown defense will be decisive.
Zane picks Nicolau because he is a cleaner fighter and a better counter puncher. He notes that Nicolau has the wrestling component to his counter game, which gives him an option to interrupt Royval's relentless pressure. He also mentions that Nicolau is a bigger striker with excellent timing and can handle Royval's grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 2 | 32 of 42 | 76% | 40 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 19 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 14 of 43 | 32% | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 21 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 32 of 42 | 76% | 23 of 31 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 17 |
| Matt Schnell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 16 of 50 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 20 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 19 of 27 | 70% | 13 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Matt Schnell | 14 of 43 | 32% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 15 | 86% | 10 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Matt Schnell | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicolau (-380), Schnell (+310)
Round 1
As the flyweight division keeps churning out rematch after rematch for Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno, contenders has started to emerge and cement themselves in the division once that logjam finally ends. Both Nicolau (18-2-1, 6-1 UFC) and the cleanly shaven Schnell (16-6, 1 NC; 6-4, 1 NC UFC) aim to upset the apple cart and become the next possible challenger, and a place among the top five in the weight class might be for the taking here. The 125ers touch gloves while referee Keith Peterson laces his nonsenseless running shoes, and instead Schnell starts off the fight with instant aggression. Schnell throws a kick and spins around to reset when it misses, and Nicolau is relegated to outside movement. Schnell pushes in with a low kick, and Nicolau eventually responds with one as Schnell swipes at him with two punches. Schnell looks to get on the inside with short left hooks, and Nicolau retreats. The crowd has already grown restless less than two minutes in due to the lack of activity from either fighter. Nicolau kicks the body, and Schnell comes out swinging with four punches that mostly come up hitting air. The Brazilian gets off a single low kick, and the short punches that Schnell has landed have marked up the temple of his opponent. Nicolau darts for with a left hand, and Schnell takes it on the chin and continues to cut Nicolau off. Out of nowhere, Nicolau rushes in with a left hook that knocks Schnell over, and he leaps on top to try to finish the job with elbows, Schnell gathers his thoughts and explodes back to his feet, and Nicolau aims another left hand on the dome. The Brazilian kicks low while Schnell blinks it out, and he dings Schnell with two massive punches as Schnell bears down on him. Schnell gets off four punches after dodging a home-run left hook, and Nicolau spins with a back kick and turns around to kick the side. Nicolau slaps a single calf kick home, and he circles away until the bell sounds and the crowd hammers them with boos.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 2
They touch gloves to start off the round, and Schnell is a little more aggressive as he comes out faster towards his opponent. This requires Nicolau to move away quicker as well, and Schnell cannot quite pin him down. Nicolau steps in with a left hand like the last round, and this would have likely dropped Schnell again but for Nicolau’s simultaneous tackle to push Schnell to the canvas. Schnell closes his guard, with his wits about him again, and Nicolau lands a few shots before bailing on the position and standing up. Schnell advances, and once more he walks into a blistering left hand that dumps him to the ground. “The Danger” is in the danger zone, but he wills himself back into the fight and jumps back up once more. Schnell looks to get one back, and he wings a looping left hand.
As he does, Nicolau beats him to the punch with an overhand right that clonks his foe on the side of his head and puts Schnell down, likely once and for all. Nicolau leaps down to pummel the grounded Schnell, with powerful and unrelenting punches to the side of the head until Schnell collapses to his stomach.
This is the sign that Peterson needs to intervene, as Schnell is done and possibly out after a rough go of it tonight. The Brazilian flyweight contender has now won six in a row, including four straight inside the Octagon, and he is in prime position for a top fight in his division.
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Matt Schnell R2 1:44 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter. He notes Nicolau has technical striking and competent grappling, while Schnell is a tough counter-striker with slick BJJ but struggles to get takedowns. He acknowledges Schnell's incredible comeback win but says he can't assume Schnell will rise from the dead every fight. He will wait for prop bets.
Big Brady is confident in Nicolau, citing Schnell's poor chin (finished five times) and Nicolau's power (five knockdowns in UFC) and excellent takedown defense (93%). He expects Schnell to fight recklessly and get knocked out in the first round, though he notes Nicolau hasn't finished anyone in the UFC recently but believes the finish is very live.
Cody picks Nicolau but strongly dislikes the -380 line. He highlights Nicolau's low output and close fights, and Schnell's chin but also his volume. He thinks the line is trappy and sees Schnell as a live dog.
Daniel Levi picks Nicolau, citing his better boxing technique, Jiu-Jitsu, and maturity compared to Schnell. He notes Schnell's chin is a weakness and that Nicolau will either finish or ride out a decision. He is not interested at the minus-400 price.
The host picks Nicolau to win inside the distance, noting that Schnell has durability issues and Nicolau has enough power to finish him. He is wary of the minus 365 moneyline but likes the under 2.5 rounds or Nicolau inside the distance. He acknowledges Schnell is often overlooked but believes Nicolau will get his hand raised.
Paul picks Nicolau but is hesitant due to the price. He notes Nicolau's low output and close decisions, and Schnell's chin issues. He thinks Nicolau will win but won't bet it, and sees value on Schnell as a dog.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, considering him underrated. He notes Nicolau has beaten higher-level opponents like David Dvorak and Tim Elliott, while Schnell has taken damage and had close fights. He predicts Nicolau will find a finish in the second round with a body-head combo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 36 of 81 | 44% | 46 of 94 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 39 of 110 | 35% | 60 of 134 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 1 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 26 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 19 of 48 | 39% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 8 of 36 | 22% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 36 of 81 | 44% | 21 of 62 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 33 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| David Dvořák | 39 of 110 | 35% | 25 of 87 | 6 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 33 of 99 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 12 of 26 | 46% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 17 of 35 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| David Dvořák | 19 of 48 | 39% | 10 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 17 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 13 of 30 | 43% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 8 of 36 | 22% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 6 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau but says his brain and gut are split. He notes that while David Dvořák is more comfortable everywhere, Nicolau has better wrestling and solid grappling, giving him more ways to win. He calls it razor thin.
Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog to win a close decision. He notes that Nicolau has fought better competition and is more well-rounded, with solid wrestling and BJJ. He is concerned about Nicolau's chin, as he has been knocked out twice, but believes he can mix in takedowns and win a competitive fight. He thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.
Cody agrees with Nicolau, noting his adaptability and wrestling. He thinks Dvořák is talented but untested. He expects Nicolau to implement a good game plan and win a decision.
Daniel Levi leans David Dvořák, citing Nicolau's questionable chin and confidence since the Dustin Ortiz KO. He thinks Dvořák's pressure and wrestling will grind out a close decision. He acknowledges Nicolau is a live dog and the fight could go either way, but slightly favors Dvořák.
The host favors Dvořák, praising his disciplined striking, combination punching, and takedown defense. He believes Nicolau will be outgunned on the feet and will need to take the fight to the ground to have success, but Dvořák's takedown defense looks good. He expects Dvořák to win a decision, noting that Nicolau has a good chin but will be put on his back foot.
Paul picks Nicolau as an underdog, citing his talent and game planning. He notes Dvořák's lower level of opposition and potential grappling issues. He thinks Nicolau can expose Dvořák's weaknesses and win a close fight.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog over David Dvořák, arguing that Nicolau is more well-rounded and has better performances against common opponents. He compares Nicolau's close decision loss to Manel Kape (who had a close fight with Alexandre Pantoja) to Dvořák's close decision win over Jordan Espinoza, favoring Nicolau's resume. The Guru also notes Nicolau's recent activity and age parity, predicting a decision win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 70 of 215 | 32% | 105 of 255 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 128 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 26 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 29 of 101 | 28% | 31 of 105 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 74 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 70 of 215 | 32% | 39 of 160 | 11 of 28 | 20 of 27 | 62 of 207 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 64 of 109 | 58% | 28 of 63 | 31 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 64 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 24 of 62 | 38% | 10 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 19 of 29 | 65% | 9 of 16 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 29 of 101 | 28% | 19 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 26 of 98 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 31 of 56 | 55% | 12 of 31 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.
Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.
Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.
Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.
The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.
Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 61 of 150 | 40% | 73 of 165 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 55 of 102 | 53% | 76 of 132 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 2:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 27 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 2:24 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 28 of 69 | 40% | 28 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 35 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Manel Kape | 0 | 27 of 51 | 52% | 28 of 55 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 61 of 150 | 40% | 37 of 120 | 10 of 16 | 14 of 14 | 58 of 145 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 |
| Manel Kape | 55 of 102 | 53% | 27 of 66 | 21 of 26 | 7 of 10 | 50 of 96 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 7 of 13 | 53% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 28 of 69 | 40% | 19 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Manel Kape | 21 of 38 | 55% | 10 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 31 of 71 | 43% | 18 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 29 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Manel Kape | 27 of 51 | 52% | 14 of 32 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 6 | 26 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kape (15-5, 0-1 UFC) will try to make good on his second appearance inside the UFC cage against the returning Nicolau (15-2-1, 3-1 UFC) at flyweight. The former Rizin champ dropped a decision to Alexandre Pantoja in his last time out, while Nicolau saw his unexpected release in 2019 after a single knockout loss. As both aim for a solid performance to put them in prime position to rise up the flyweight division, they will do so before referee Mark Smith. Nicolau scores a big early leg kick that almost sweeps Kape’s leg out from beneath him. Both flyweight swat at one another with single strikes but come up short, and Nicolau rushes in and gets kicked to the cup. Nicolau walks through it, and he kicks Kape in the body. Kape looks to throw bombs, and Nicolau ducks out of the way to avoid them as the two measure one another. The Brazilian targets the leg again with a fierce kick, and Kape can do nothing but take it flush. Nicolau darts in, throws a punch, and gets out before he gets countered. When Kape swings hard, Nicolau charges in for a takedown. The Brazilian clings on with a body lock, and when the first attempt is not successful, the second one is. Nicolau puts Kape on his back, and Kape scoots his way to the fence as he gets hit in the face repeatedly. Kape sits up to try to get out, and Nicolau threatens with a guillotine choke. Kape rolls through and winds up in a guillotine choke, and Nicolau pulls guard to secure it. As Kape is still standing, he bounces up and down to free himself from the danger, and Nicolau aims for a shoulder lock while he slides off. Nicolau is allowed to stand back up, and Kape backs away to find his range. As Kape comes in again, Nicolau hits a picture-perfect single to put Kape on the ground again. While the Brazilian lands strikes from above, Kape threatens with an armbar that Nicolau practically ignores. Nicolau targets the body and head with his ground-and-pound, and Kape again tries to aim for a submission only to get shoved aside. Nicolau grinds out the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 2
Kape comes out of his corner pushing the pace, and he walks Nicolau down and tries to get off a jumping front kick. Nicolau sees it coming and circles away, and Kape chases after him with a heavy uppercut. Nicolau is hurt, and he shoots for a desperation takedown but gets stuffed. Kape swarms him with powerful punches, and Nicolau falls to a knee as he takes an uppercut on the chin only to spring back up. A big left hook makes Nicolau topple over and somersault backwards, and Kape stalks him down calmly to do more damage. Nicolau turns a takedown attempt into a two-punch combination, and Kape eats it about as cleanly as one can and does not flinch. Kape rips the body with a left hand, and he aims with another shortly after as Nicolau is reeling. Kape rushes after Nicolau and gets clipped with a right hand, but Kape completely ignores it as he hunts his prey. A step-in knee leads to a right hand from Kape, and Nicolau wobbles but does not fall. The Brazilian jabs a few times to the body, and Kape pushes him away and does not let any strike from Nicolau get to him. Nicolau goes for a takedown, and Kape rolls through it and stands to his feet, only to get kneed in the chest. Kape stands confidently before his foe, and even when Nicolau lands, he does not let it register and instead puts power punches on him. Nicolau chains a punch into a takedown attempt, and Kape shucks him off and gets right back to his aggressive march in sight of a finish. Nicolau kicks the lead leg and falls over, and Kape lets him stand back up so he can continue chasing him. Kape eats a body shot so that he can counter, and Nicolau lands a few times while avoiding the replies. “Prodigio” leaps forward with a flying knee, and Nicolau dances out of the way. When Kape leaps and attacks again, he falls to his back, only for time to expire before the Brazilian can capitalize.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Round 3
There is a glove touch to start off the second round, and the tide may have seriously changed from Round 1 to 2. Kape plants his fist on the jaw of his adversary, and he chops at the lead leg a few times from range. Nicolau takes an inside leg kick that may have bounced off the cup, but he does not let this slow him down as he is measuring for a takedown. Nicolau sprints forward with two punches and backs away when Kape loops a big shot back at him. Nicolau steps in and cracks Kape with a stiff left hand, and he beats Kape to the punch with a follow-up strike while not getting struck back. Nicolau works a couple leg kicks, and he gets off a solid left hand that Kape laughs off. Nicolau rushes in with a single leg takedown, and Kape defends it and pushes Nicolau over to his back. Kape stands above him and kicks the leg a few times, and when Nicolau sits up, Kape swats at him. Nicolau butt-scoots at him to engage, but when Kape backs off, he hops back to his feet. Nicolau steps in and scores a solid right hand and a head kick; like a villain in a James Bond movie, Kape does not flinch. Nicolau tattoos his fists on Kape’s face, and he finally gets Kape’s attention with power shots. Kape tries to land back, and he does at a lower volume. Nicolau charges in with a leg kick and looks for a trip, but there is nothing there. Instead, Nicolau circles and digs to the body with a few punches. Kape takes a fierce one-two square on the jaw, and Nicolau patiently backs away to get off a sweeping leg kick. Kape looses a head kick, and Nicolau blocks it and steps in to start throwing bombs. Kape throws back at him, and when he does, Nicolau times a takedown attempt that gets rebuffed. Nicolau throws heavy leather and gets rocked with a flying knee. Kape jumps forward with a ferocious knee, and Nicolau eats and responds with a spinning back elbow. The final round ends, and this is about as close as it could be.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Kape (29-28 Kape)
The Official Result
Mateus Nicolau def. Manel Kape via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded skills including good wrestling and ground game. He notes that Kape looked poor in his UFC debut, doing more dancing than striking. He expects Nicolau to out-volume Kape on the feet and mix in takedowns, winning a decision. He acknowledges Kape has knockout power but believes Nicolau can avoid getting knocked out.
Daniel Levi picks Matheus Nicolau as an underdog, citing his well-rounded game, 100% takedown defense, and superior jiu-jitsu. He believes if Nicolau doesn't get caught, he wins. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern, but thinks Manel Kape is overrated and has been wobbled before. He also mentions Kape's excuse about slipping due to sweaty feet in the Pantoja fight, and thinks Nicolau's experience in the UFC octagon is an advantage.
Lock leans Nicolau, believing he was wrongfully cut from the UFC and is a legit fighter. He notes Nicolau's solid resume including wins over John Moraga and Louis Smolka, with his only UFC loss being a head kick KO to Dustin Ortiz. Lock is skeptical of Kape after his underwhelming UFC debut against Bruno Silva. He thinks Nicolau will make a statement. He calls Nicolau his most confident dog pick pre-tape.
The Guru initially leans towards a decision but changes to a KO pick for Manel Kape. He believes Kape suffered from octagon jitters in his debut against Alexandre Pantoja and will come out faster this time. He notes Nicolau's long layoff (since August 2019) and previous KO losses. The Guru expects Kape to put on pressure early and secure a TKO win at the end of the first round, citing Nicolau's inactivity and questionable chin.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Ortiz | 1 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Ortiz | 1 | 8 of 43 | 18% | 8 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Ortiz | 8 of 43 | 18% | 6 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Ortiz | 8 of 43 | 18% | 6 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Matheus Nicolau | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Expert Picks (6)
Angelo picks Matheus Nicolau, citing his technical striking, accuracy, and grappling chops. He acknowledges Alex Perez is a dog who looked good against Muhammad Mokaev, but notes Perez didn't let his hands go in that fight. He worries about Nicolau coming off a knockout loss, which could affect his chin or aggression. He expects Nicolau to be calculated and patient, using his speed and technique to win.
Cody picks Nicolau as the more well-rounded fighter, better suited for five rounds. He notes Perez's weight cut issues and short notice, and believes Nicolau's efficiency and durability will carry him to a decision or late stoppage.
Daniel believes Nicolau has no technical weaknesses, with excellent boxing, takedown defense from Nova União, and strong jiu-jitsu. He notes Nicolau's chin is a concern but thinks Perez is overrated and that Nicolau will control the tempo and outpoint him. He picks Nicolau to win and take the next step toward title aspirations.
Perez has a wrestling and grappling advantage over Nicolau. He should be able to take the fight to the ground and control Nicolau from top position. Nicolau is the better striker, but Perez's wrestling should be the difference. I expect Perez to win on the scorecards, possibly with a TKO if he batters the lead leg.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Nicolau's cleaner, more efficient work over five rounds. He highlights Perez's durability issues and low volume, and expects a decision win for Nicolau with a possible late stoppage if Perez tires.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the more technical and well-rounded fighter. He notes that Nicolau has only been beaten by flash KOs (head kick from Dustin Ortiz, knee from Brandon Royval) and is otherwise undefeated since 2012. He criticizes Alex Perez as basic and lacking dynamic finishing ability. He predicts a decision win for Nicolau, possibly 4-1.
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