vs
+340 -333
UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 30
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Reinier de Ridder
2.47 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.36 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.56 TD Avg
29.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Bo Nickal
3.35 SLpM
61.0% Str. Acc.
2.07 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
55.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
2.5 Sub. Avg
Reinier de Ridder
Moneyline
Caesars +340
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
BetRivers +800
Bo Nickal
Moneyline
BetWay -333
KO/TKO
FanDuel +180
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetWay +225
Reinier de Ridder - Fight History
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 0 57 of 98 58% 71 of 112 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Reinier de Ridder 0 55 of 141 39% 111 of 199 2 of 8 25% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 24 of 42 57% 24 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 19 of 51 37% 30 of 62 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:26
2 Caio Borralho 0 14 of 25 56% 22 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Reinier de Ridder 0 17 of 43 39% 23 of 50 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
3 Caio Borralho 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Reinier de Ridder 0 19 of 47 40% 58 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 57 of 98 58% 32 of 65 9 of 16 16 of 17 55 of 95 0 of 0 2 of 3
Reinier de Ridder 55 of 141 39% 37 of 117 10 of 15 8 of 9 53 of 139 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 24 of 42 57% 14 of 26 3 of 8 7 of 8 23 of 41 0 of 0 1 of 1
Reinier de Ridder 19 of 51 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 7 of 8 19 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 14 of 25 56% 6 of 16 2 of 3 6 of 6 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 17 of 43 39% 12 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 1 15 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 19 of 31 61% 12 of 23 4 of 5 3 of 3 18 of 29 0 of 0 1 of 2
Reinier de Ridder 19 of 47 40% 16 of 43 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo points out that Caio is a slick grappler with improving striking, while RDR is a known quitter who quit on the stool in his last fight. He acknowledges RDR's size and grappling ability but believes Caio is too smart and mobile to be brute forced. He also notes the fight is 15 minutes, which might favor RDR, but ultimately cannot pick a two-time quitter.

"Caio is going to be the pick here. How could you pick a known quitter at this point?"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. He notes de Ridder had severe health issues and gassed badly in his last fight against Brendan Allen, unable to get up between rounds. Borralho is the better striker and has solid wrestling and takedown defense. Brady expects de Ridder to win the first round but fade, allowing Borralho to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

Borralho by decision
"I think Kyle's going to take over and win the second and third round. Maybe get a late finish, but I'll say Kyle Bow wins this fight and wins it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Cody also picks Borralho, highlighting his excellent jab, durability, and cardio. He criticizes de Ridder's weight cut, age, and reliance on a step-in knee that works best against orthodox fighters. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly via a straight left down the middle.

"I got Kale Barow as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Connor picks Borralho but with hesitation. He notes that Borralho's low output and choosy striking could be exploited by de Ridder's relentless pressure, but de Ridder lacks the combination striking to punish Borralho's flaws. Connor worries about Borralho's positional complacency in the clinch and on the ground, and de Ridder's ability to take him down and control him, as seen in the Brendan Allen fight. However, he ultimately trusts Borralho's defensive instincts.

Odds: Borralho opened at -260, now -250; de Ridder opened at +220, now +210. Connor suggests better value on de Ridder than on Oliveira.
"I'm still going to pick Bahaio just because I do not think de Ritter represents the actual downfalls for him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Vreeland picks Caio Borralho but is hesitant due to the steep odds (-275). He believes Borralho's Damen Mia black belt jiu-jitsu can neutralize de Ridder's grappling, and he favors Borralho's technical striking. However, he notes that Borralho doesn't dominate opponents and that de Ridder could surprise after a poor performance. Vreeland sees this as a competitive fight and would not lay the juice.

"Pure pick, I'll go with the Damen Mia Black Belt Bohaya. But no way in hell I can lay no minus 275 or minus 300 on him in this spot."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)

The host acknowledges Borralho is better everywhere technically, with superior striking defense and takedown defense (77%), and expects him to win. However, he sees no value at the current odds (1.35 / -285) as Borralho's implied probability of 74% is too high to justify a bet. He also dislikes de Ridder, calling him sloppy and low-level, but passes on the fight entirely.

"Barralho should win, but his odds reflect his advantages, and there's just no value here for me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

James favors Caio Borralho due to his superior striking, better cardio, and ability to hang with de Ridder in grappling. He points out de Ridder's questionable cardio and quitting in his last fight, while Borralho is more energy-efficient. James believes Borralho can hurt de Ridder on the feet and potentially get a finish, especially as de Ridder tires. He also notes Borralho's grappling success against Brendan Allen in a karate combat match, suggesting he can reverse or neutralize de Ridder's takedowns.

"I'm picking Kyio to win the fight. I don't know whether he's going to get a knockout decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Borralho is well-rounded and can stop de Ridder's grappling. He is a better striker and should outpoint de Ridder over five rounds. De Ridder has a history of quitting when pressured. Borralho by decision is likely, and he's a solid parlay piece.

Borralho by decision; parlay piece
"I'm going to go Bahalo here. Baja by decision. And I don't mind parlaying him at minus 275 either."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Paul picks Borralho, citing his durability, improved striking, and poor matchup for de Ridder. He notes de Ridder's body shutdown in the Allen fight and his awkward style. He expects Borralho to win by decision, possibly hitting the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"I just don't really see too many paths to victory for Rainer here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, believing his grappling will overwhelm Borralho. He notes de Ridder's success against Brendan Allen and his relentless chain wrestling. He expects de Ridder to win a decision, possibly losing the third round due to cardio.

29-28 decision
"I'm going to go with Raina Derrida getting this one done based on the first two rounds using his grappling."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Caio Borralho

Zane also picks Borralho but with reservations. He notes that de Ridder's pressure could overwhelm Borralho if he hasn't prepared properly, and that Borralho's out-fighting style may not hold up against relentless pressure. Zane points out that de Ridder's game is to crash into opponents and take them down, which could exploit Borralho's tendency to get complacent in the clinch. He sticks with his pick but acknowledges the uncertainty.

Odds: Borralho -250, de Ridder +210.
"I've already picked Bahaio on my podcast, so I'm going to stick with my guns here, but the closer we get, this is one of those match ups where I'm like, do I trust Bahaio against somebody who simply doesn't …"
LOSS vs Brendan Allen
KO R4 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: de Ridder vs. Allen · Oct 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 13 69% 61 of 72 3 of 7 42% 1 0 7:05
Brendan Allen 0 22 of 37 59% 97 of 134 1 of 1 100% 1 2 11:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 3 of 4 75% 40 of 47 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:04
Brendan Allen 0 2 of 2 100% 6 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:32
2 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 6 83% 10 of 12 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:48
Brendan Allen 0 12 of 18 66% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:45
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 1 of 2 50% 4 of 5 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:13
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 10 40% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:26
4 Reinier de Ridder 0 0 of 1 0% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brendan Allen 0 4 of 7 57% 37 of 45 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 13 69% 4 of 5 5 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1
Brendan Allen 22 of 37 59% 19 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 27
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 3 of 4 75% 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 1
Brendan Allen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 6 83% 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 12 of 18 66% 11 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 13
3 Reinier de Ridder 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 10 40% 4 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7
4 Reinier de Ridder 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brendan Allen 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: de Ridder (-200); Allen (+170)

Round 1
Although not born in the Great White North, late replacement Allen (25-7, 13-4 UFC) will nevertheless be hoisting the flag covered by a red maple leaf in honor of his grandparents. He will serve as a fairly significant betting underdog as he takes on submission magician de Ridder (21-2, 4-0 UFC), even though he too is quite a grappler in his own right. What could be a delight on the ground or a wild one on the feet will have five rounds to air out, and referee Jason Herzog brings the 185-pounders to the center of the cage to issue their final instructions. They touch gloves respectfully. It’s on with the show.
De Ridder opens with a low kick and a takedown shot, and Allen stonewalls him immediately and knees him in the chest. They both wrangle one another around in the subsequent clinch while spamming knee strikes, and Allen shoves the Dutchman to the fence. De Ridder deftly hits a trip and lands in full mount, putting Allen in a precarious position less than one minute in. “The Dutch Knight” wraps up an arm-triangle choke from mount that he uses to smother his opponent. Allen stays calm and composed while a roughly 200-pound man is partially using a Mother’s Milk submission on him, and he turns and almost gives his arm up. De Ridder thinks about going after it, but he instead allows Allen to keep twisting so he can secure the back from the Louisiana native.
De Ridder wraps up the body triangle and has Allen leaning on him, so he torques himself to have Allen flat and stuck hand-fighting. While Allen fights off the grip, De Ridder makes his life miserable and lets Allen keep twisting to put him flat on his belly. Allen gets to his knees with the body lock in place, and he tries to drag himself towards the fencing but begins to take shots to the ear from the Dutch fighter. De Ridder rolls and grabs hold of the neck, and Allen, a rear-naked choke specialist, is fully capable at the moment of defending from the various directions. De Ridder clings to the shoulder when Allen almost shakes him off, and he fastens an arm around the chin just to restrict the breathing. De Ridder flattens Allen out for a second and stars bludgeoning him with punches to the side and back of the head, and Herzog is telling him to knock it off but little more. Allen twists his way out and ignores an armbar setup to turn De Ridder over, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
The athletes get to the second stanza, and Allen is the one to push the pace. In doing so, he walks into a punch and three body kicks. Allen points at his opponent and spins at him with an elbow, closing the distance to hurl a couple short strikes after it. De Ridder welcomes this, snatching Allen up and pressing him to the wire. De Ridder drives knees to the midsection when not level changing, and he drops down to his knees to go for a double-leg takedown. Allen’s defense holds up on this effort, so de Ridder transitions to an outside trip that he uses to drag Allen to the floor. De Ridder sits on top and pops him with his shoulder a few times, completely nullifying “All In” and making him have to fight off everything. De Ridder imposes his weight on Allen’s back, pushing off the fence to drag them down, and Allen slides out and assumes top control with a sneaky reversal.
Allen connects with short strikes including a few slashing elbows, grinding his forehead down to exude as much pressure as he can muster to shut down the Dutchman. Allen hammers his opponent with elbows, and de Ridder rolls to threaten with an armbar using his offensive guard. Allen breaks through the tries and steps over through to the side so that he can drum down his own attacks. De Ridder looks for an armbar trap while Allen is hacking at him, and Allen stays smart and keeps his strikes tight and compact to not open himself up for anything. De Ridder abandons it and rolls over to his knees, only for Allen to put him back on his back. The Dutch fighter puts his legs up and to the side of the head in hopes of catching Allen unaware, even trying for an armbar before even getting hold of Allen’s limb, and Allen laughs it off and hits de Ridder with ground-and-pound until the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 3
Allen goes right after his opponent to get started, pitching a body kick at the Dutch fighter who appears to be slowing. De Ridder punches his way into a takedown shot, and Allen runs across the cage with de Ridder behind him and is dragged to the floor. De Ridder clings onto the back and tries to lace up a body triangle, and Allen turns through it until he doesn’t. De Ridder claims back control, and he starts hunting for a choke. Allen punches him behind his own head, and de Ridder appears to have some damage around his right eye that is leaking blood down his cheek. Allen turns all the way through to wind up on top, and de Ridder clings to an arm-triangle choke that he does not get. Allen opens up the guard with elbows, and de Ridder hunts for an armbar that is nowhere near close to finding.
De Ridder does manage to turn over by threatening with his offensive guard, although Allen welcomes this by opening up with power punches to the side of the dome. De Ridder rolls to his back, and Allen lays into him with punishing punches and eviscerating elbows. Blood starts to pool around de Ridder’s eye sockets, and Allen grinds his elbow on the face and keeps doing damage. De Ridder desperately throws up his legs to hook in an inverted triangle choke, and Allen does not appear concerned as he drops down a few hammerfists and slips his head out. The round over, de Ridder is on the ground for quite some time. Herzog asks him if he can get up, and eventually, he stands, but was precariously close to being called out for not getting back to his stool.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

Round 4
The physician checks on de Ridder between rounds, who is so visibly fatigued he almost cannot stand up. De Ridder says he is ok, so the fight continues and the championship rounds are here. Allen, knowing that de Ridder’s goose is likely cooked, sprints at his wiped opponent and completes one of the easiest double-leg takedowns he has ever landed against a high-level adversary. De Ridder feebly offers a submission setup from his back, and Allen punches him out of it. Herzog tells Allen to keep it clean, as Allen is drilling de Ridder in the side of the head with his fists and elbows. A hematoma has formed on the right temple of the exhausted Dutchman, and Allen slowly, methodically drums on him with ground-and-pound. Allen resides in de Ridder’s guard, working him over until Herzog tells him to be more active.
This spurs de Ridder, of the two, to offer up some resistance in the form of an armbar. Allen lets de Ridder twist and turn, clubbing him with ground strikes that further make this day the worst for de Ridder in quite some time. The damage is not particularly frightening, but Allen has become a steamroller completely taking all of the energy reserves out of the man on bottom. Allen smothers and grinds, making sure that de Ridder has no room for escape and no space to get something off. Allen stands up, and de Ridder does not. Herzog tells the corner to get away, as they cannot help him back up. De Ridder manages to stand. It is a moral victory, him merely standing up and walking to his stool, as he has nothing left to offer. Rather than send their man out for another five-minute slow cooking, the Dutchman's corner throws in the towel on his behalf. The fight is over, and Allen has prevailed by technical knockout as a late replacement. Allen claimed he wanted to break his opponent, and by definition, he did just that.
In his post-fight interview, Allen first requests a moment of silence for his fallen former coach, "Duke" Roufus, who passed away yesterday. Even after 20 minutes of grueling combat, Allen appears fairly fresh. The skillful middleweight issues three callouts, covering all his bases: Khamzat Chimaev, or if not him, Dricus du Plessis. If for some reason both turn him down, he asks for a rematch with Sean Strickland as the two toed the line about five years ago at 195 pounds. Should any of those happen, we will be here for it. Additionally, UFC 321 is next weekend, with the heavyweight throne on the line. We will absolutely be there for that one, which starts at 10 a.m. ET, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen

The Official Result
Brendan Allen def. Reinier de Ridder R4 5:00 via TKO (Corner Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo is confident Reinier de Ridder wins, citing his size, grappling, and durability. He notes de Ridder's impressive performances against Whittaker, Bo Nickal, and Cannonier. He believes Brendan Allen will fade, similar to his fight against Anthony Hernandez, and that Allen's camp change is a disadvantage.

De Ridder scores high fantasy points
"I think RDR wins this fight. I think he scores a ton of points."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Big Brady acknowledges de Ridder's unorthodox striking but highlights his size, power, and dangerous knees. He thinks de Ridder has better cardio than Allen on short notice and is more dangerous in both striking and grappling. He predicts de Ridder knocks out Allen in the second round.

de Ridder by KO in round 2
"I got to go Derritter. Um, give me Ditter to win this fight. I'll see who he wins this fight by second round KO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks de Ridder, citing his size, physicality, and excellent jiu-jitsu. He notes de Ridder's funky striking and ability to tax opponents with cage control, as seen in the Whittaker fight. He believes Brendan Allen's cardio issues and short notice will be exploited over five rounds, leading to a late stoppage or decision.

"I'm going to lean towards Ren Ditter minus 200. I think it's a little bit deep. I think Brandon Allen poses lots of problems to him, right?"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor leans toward de Ridder but acknowledges Allen's chances. He notes that Allen is well-rounded and could be competitive if he pushes forward and stays confident. However, he thinks Allen is likely to grapple with de Ridder, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor also mentions that de Ridder is defensively flawed and could be knocked out by a big shot.

Odds: de Ridder opened at -250, currently -220; Allen opened at +210, currently +185.
"I think there's a, there's a version of this fight, a couple of, you know, key decisions made on either side where Alan could be quite competitive and maybe even put Derrida in trouble."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

James sees similarities between de Ridder and Dricus du Plessis, noting that de Ridder's unorthodox style, including a devastating step-in knee and judo trips, makes him difficult to prepare for. He believes Brendan Allen will start well but fade due to short notice and cardio issues, with de Ridder's pressure and grappling taking over in later rounds. James predicts a finish in rounds 3 or 4.

"I think as the fight plays out, like most DA fights, the Ritter starts to get going. He lands his knees up the middle. He hurts Brendan Allen. Brendan Allen's lack of training camp, four-week notice, starts to take a …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host thinks de Ridder will utilize his aggressiveness to keep Allen on the back foot and mix in wrestling. He believes Allen's submission defense will be good enough to avoid a finish, but unless the short notice fight causes his gas tank to fail, de Ridder will keep top pressure and control to win on the scorecards.

win by decision
"I think that Ditter will do a good job in terms of utilizing his aggressiveness to keep Allen on the back foot from there."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing de Ridder's size and grappling pressure. He highlights Brendan Allen's tendency to fade in later rounds, as seen against Vettori and Curtis, and believes de Ridder's full camp and five-round experience will be decisive. He expects de Ridder to win by late stoppage or decision.

"I echo most of the same sentiments as you. I haven't been the highest on Rainer Durator, but I also haven't been the highest on Brendan Allen."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder over Brendan Allen. He references de Ridder's performance against Whittaker and his body knees. He believes Allen is stationary and will be vulnerable to body knees, leading to a submission or TKO. He predicts de Ridder will hurt Allen with a knee to the body and finish with a submission in round two or three.

submission win in round two or three
"I'm going to go with Reina De Ridder getting this one done. I think he'll hurt Brendan Allen with a knee to the body, and then he's going to score a submission win or a TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, citing his aggression and ability to finish. He notes that de Ridder is more aggressive and looks to finish, while Allen tends to have close fights against composed opponents. Zane believes de Ridder's size and ability to reverse positions will be key, and that Allen's attack-focused grappling may lead to losing positions.

Odds: de Ridder opened at -250, currently -220; Allen opened at +210, currently +185.
"So yeah, I'm going to take the ritter, but it's an interesting fight."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Robert Whittaker 1 66 of 142 46% 70 of 146 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Reinier de Ridder 0 67 of 145 46% 192 of 282 2 of 15 13% 0 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Robert Whittaker 0 20 of 34 58% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 15 of 35 42% 21 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Robert Whittaker 0 9 of 27 33% 9 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 16 of 38 42% 29 of 58 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:04
3 Robert Whittaker 1 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Reinier de Ridder 0 13 of 30 43% 32 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:39
4 Robert Whittaker 0 6 of 22 27% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Reinier de Ridder 0 14 of 24 58% 37 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:56
5 Robert Whittaker 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 18 50% 73 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Robert Whittaker 66 of 142 46% 62 of 135 4 of 7 0 of 0 51 of 123 4 of 5 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 67 of 145 46% 41 of 105 26 of 40 0 of 0 54 of 128 9 of 11 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Robert Whittaker 20 of 34 58% 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 15 of 35 42% 6 of 19 9 of 16 0 of 0 10 of 30 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Robert Whittaker 9 of 27 33% 8 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 16 of 38 42% 12 of 32 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 36 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 Robert Whittaker 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 13 1 of 1 11 of 14
Reinier de Ridder 13 of 30 43% 10 of 24 3 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 26 0 of 0 3 of 4
4 Robert Whittaker 6 of 22 27% 6 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 14 of 24 58% 10 of 18 4 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
5 Robert Whittaker 11 of 31 35% 9 of 26 2 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Reinier de Ridder 9 of 18 50% 3 of 12 6 of 6 0 of 0 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder with low confidence, fearing Robert Whittaker may be on the decline after his teeth were shoved in by Khamzat Chimaev. He acknowledges Whittaker is the better striker and overall fighter, but believes de Ridder's size, grappling, and ability to close distance could be too much. He will be rooting for Whittaker.

"I'm going to pick him. Low confidence pick here, but I am going to go with Renier."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker, citing a massive striking advantage. He notes de Ridder has poor cardio and was outstruck by Gerald Meerschaert, while Whittaker has elite takedown defense and striking. He worries about the first round if de Ridder gets a takedown but believes if the fight extends, Whittaker will dominate. He predicts a third-round knockout.

third round knockout
"I like Whitaker here. ... I think he probably does knock out Ditter late in the fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor sees Whittaker as a master of middle distance, able to control the pocket and land combos without getting drawn into clinch exchanges. He notes de Ridder's poor defensive footwork and tendency to collapse into the cage, which Whittaker will exploit. He also points out that de Ridder's size and willingness to take punishment may make it uncomfortable early, but ultimately Whittaker's speed and accuracy will be too much.

Odds movement from -190 to -140 suggests line movement, but Connor is surprised de Ridder is only +120, calling it 'basically dead even' and saying 'I don't see it.'
"I'm going to take Robert Whittaker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker will avoid de Ridder's BJJ stylings, stuff takedowns, keep the fight upright, pick de Ridder apart, and eventually find a finish in the third or fourth round.

finish in round 3 or 4
"I think Whitaker won't have as much trouble dealing with Ditter in the striking realm. And I think we'll see Whitaker stuff the takedowns of Derritter, keep this fight upright, pick the Ritter apart, and eventually find that finish in …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his size, reach, and unorthodox style as problems for Whittaker, similar to Dricus du Plessis. He notes Whittaker's recent jaw surgery and de Ridder's momentum from the Bo Nickal win. He predicts a submission victory, specifically a rear-naked choke in the third round after wearing Whittaker down.

Submission, round 3, rear-naked choke
"I'm going to go with Raina Derida. ... I'm going to say submission victory for Raina Derida. ... third round rear naked choke."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane agrees with Connor, emphasizing that de Ridder has never faced a striker as fast, accurate, and powerful as Whittaker. He notes that Whittaker's losses come against elite wrestlers or rangy strikers like Adesanya, but de Ridder lacks that athleticism. He expects a clear win for Whittaker, possibly similar to the Aliskerov fight.

"Yeah, it's just not a, it's not a fight that we've ever seen Whitaker lose... I expect it to look like a pretty easy fight for Whitaker."
WIN vs Bo Nickal
KO R2 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 1 22 of 32 68% 91 of 104 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 21 38% 24 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 10 50% 43 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
Bo Nickal 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:00
2 Reinier de Ridder 1 17 of 22 77% 48 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Bo Nickal 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 15 15 of 17 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 8 of 21 38% 2 of 13 4 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 17 of 22 77% 7 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 10 11 of 12 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 6 of 15 40% 1 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 10 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)

Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

No bet; cautious despite odds
"Bo Nickal is the pick, but I'm a little weary."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Round 2 KO
"I like Nickel here. Uh, I think Nickel is going to knock out Renee De Ritter at some point in this fight. We'll call it second round knockout for Bo Nickel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Let's split it: I'll pick Bo Nickal, you pick de Ridder."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

knockout
"I think that will eventually lead to Nickel landing a big shot on Ditter and putting him out, winning this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Bo Nickel. I think he has the wrestling instincts. First of all, Derida I don't think gets a takedown on him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Odds: Nickal -332, de Ridder +280. Zane thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em given Nickal's last showing.
"I'll pick de Ridder to just repeat this GM3 fight and we're gonna see... the athletic higher athletic ceiling and much lower level of experience and technical skill are going to balance out."
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:31 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 11 of 13 84% 27 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 12 of 21 57% 26 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 11 of 13 84% 10 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 10
Kevin Holland 12 of 21 57% 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 12 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-112), Holland (-108)

Round 1
Striker battles grappler to kick off the main card of UFC 311, although that might be a bit of an overgeneralization considering Holland (26-12, 1 NC; 13-9, 1 NC UFC) has landed some nifty brabo chokes in recent memory. He will come to blows, and/or roll with de Ridder (18-2, 1-0 UFC, who got his feet wet in the UFC last November by outhustling savant submission specialist Gerald Meerschaert and tapping “GM3” out. Whether this fight ends by knockout, submission or something else entirely, referee Frank Trigg will be here for the middleweights every step of the way. There is a touch of gloves to get things going, and de Ridder shoots in for a single immediately. Holland hits his back and wraps a leg around the head of his opponent, setting up a triangle and nearly transitioning it to an armbar. When de Ridder lords over him, Holland drills him with surprisingly effective hammerfists from his back. De Ridder lowers himself down into the guard, thwarting any subs coming his way. De Ridder grinds down with elbows to the chest, with Holland hanging onto the wrists before flailing his legs to get some space. An upkick or two may have gotten de Ridder’s attention, but de Ridder is still on top of him. Holland starts talking to Trigg, mentioning that he took a knee to the head, and he laughs. Holland keeps striking from off his back, and de Ridder elbows him back to shred a mean cut open on his forehead. Holland sways to avoid more ground-and-pound, but the Dutch fighter drew first blood. De Ridder unloads with standing-to-ground punches, pinning Holland to his back and letting Holland scramble so he can take his back. Holland stands up, and de Ridder is on his back, but barely. Holland lowers himself down to put his arms on the mat to take some of the weight off, and he rolls through and is followed. “RDR” fastens the body triangle around the waist and locks down a rear-naked choke, and it is tight in a hurry. Holland considers taking his mouthpiece out to alleviate some of the danger, but he realizes that his goose is cooked and that the man formerly known as “The Dutch Knight” has him dead to rights. As the choke is not going anywhere, Holland has no choice but to tap out before getting put to sleep. With that clear-cut win in his pocket, de Ridder places himself in prime position for big fights ahead.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Kevin Holland R1 3:31 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder but with hesitation. He believes de Ridder can exploit Kevin Holland's takedown defense and win via grappling. However, he worries about de Ridder's reckless ground decision-making, as seen in his UFC debut where he gave up positions. He thinks Holland's durability and jiu-jitsu could make it a decision win for de Ridder.

"I do think he wins this fight the odds are ing last time I said I thought he was going to win this fight he was a much bigger underdog now he's plus 115"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody picks Reinier de Ridder, citing the blueprint to beat Kevin Holland: take him down and control him. He notes that Holland struggles with wrestlers at middleweight, as seen against Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. De Ridder is a large middleweight with strong judo and grappling, and Cody believes he will close the distance, clinch, and take Holland down repeatedly. He also points out that Holland has never faced an opponent taller than him, but de Ridder is 6'4". Cody expects a submission or dominant decision.

Mentions de Ridder may finish inside the distance with a submission. No specific odds.
"Rainer to Ritter that's exactly what he's looking to do he's not looking to have a fun striking match with you... he's looking to throw a right hand he's going to look to close that pocket get a hold of …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Connor picks de Ridder, citing his size, grappling, and ability to bait Holland into a grappling exchange. He notes that Holland's core is a BJJ player who sees wrestling as an invitation to grapple, which plays into de Ridder's strengths. Connor points out that de Ridder is huge and tough, and even though he's a poor striker, his lead hand and jab can set up takedowns. He believes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to engage in losing grappling battles will lead to a de Ridder win. Connor also mentions that de Ridder has only lost to massive powerhouses, which Holland is not.

Odds: de Ridder opened +132, now -105; Holland opened -147, now -105. Connor thinks de Ridder deserves to be the favorite.
"I gotta take Reinier de Ridder."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Daniel picks de Ridder, continuing his fade of Kevin Holland. He notes that de Ridder attempted 13 takedowns in his debut and believes he only needs to take Holland down once to win. Daniel thinks de Ridder will submit Holland and took him at +126 for 2 units. He mentions that Holland is a prize fighter without title aspirations, while de Ridder is hungry.

Daniel took de Ridder at +126 for 2 units. He says the fade Kevin Holland World Tour continues and expects a submission win.
"I took uh rer der rder about a week or two ago at a plus 126"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his superior grappling and jiu-jitsu, which should exploit Kevin Holland's known weakness against grapplers. He notes Holland's poor takedown defense and tendency to abandon game plans, while de Ridder's judo trips and submissions (arm triangle, rear-naked choke) are live threats. James believes de Ridder only needs a couple of takedowns to win rounds or secure a submission, and that Holland's rangy striking style plays into de Ridder's comfort zone. He also questions Holland's motivation, contrasting it with de Ridder's title aspirations.

"I'm going with the Ridder in this fight obviously it's a bit of a step up in competition from gm3 Kevin Holland is a Mainstay in the UFC but at the end of the day I don't think Kevin Holland …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The host notes de Ridder had a successful UFC debut and wants to showcase his BJJ. Holland is also a BJJ black belt with a striking advantage, but the host thinks Holland will struggle to keep de Ridder off him, leading to de Ridder finding a dominant position and getting a submission victory.

submission victory
"I think he's going to struggle to keep darer off of him which will lead to dder eventually finding a dominant position and getting a submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul agrees with Cody, picking de Ridder. He notes that Holland has always struggled with takedown defense at middleweight and that de Ridder's grappling should be the difference. Paul was impressed with de Ridder's submission win over Gerald Meerschaert and believes the same game plan will work against Holland. He advises de Ridder to avoid striking exchanges and lean on takedowns early and often.

No specific prop bet mentioned.
"I'm with you I'll I'll take rer the Ritter at a pick on price here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The MMA Guru picks Reinier de Ridder to submit Kevin Holland. He notes Holland is a fish out of water when taken down, and de Ridder has a massive strength advantage. He expects de Ridder to get on top and submit Holland early or in the second round. He also questions Holland's quitting tendency.

submission
"I will take Raina Dara to submit Kevin Holland early or in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane also picks de Ridder, agreeing with Connor. He emphasizes that Holland's willingness to engage in grappling exchanges will be his downfall. Zane notes that de Ridder's size and grappling ability will allow him to control the fight once it hits the mat. He points out that Holland has been taken down and controlled by lesser grapplers, and de Ridder is a significant step up. Zane also mentions that Holland's striking is inconsistent, and even if he has a good boxing performance, he'll likely abandon it for grappling.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I'm gonna take de Ridder as well."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 1:44 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 0 30 of 54 55% 44 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:53
Gerald Meerschaert 1 38 of 66 57% 82 of 114 5 of 13 38% 1 0 3:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 21 of 34 61% 21 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:10
Gerald Meerschaert 1 28 of 53 52% 33 of 59 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:44
2 Reinier de Ridder 0 9 of 17 52% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:25
Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 6 83% 35 of 39 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:49
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 7 71% 14 of 16 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 30 of 54 55% 27 of 49 3 of 5 0 of 0 22 of 44 2 of 3 6 of 7
Gerald Meerschaert 38 of 66 57% 19 of 42 10 of 13 9 of 11 34 of 61 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 21 of 34 61% 19 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 28 of 53 52% 14 of 34 5 of 8 9 of 11 26 of 51 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 9 of 17 52% 8 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 7
Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 6 83% 2 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Reinier de Ridder 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 7 71% 3 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Reinier de Ridder
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: De Ridder (-290), Meerschaert (+235)

Round 1
In their combined 54 pro wins, these two co-headlining middleweights have earned 50 finishes. Referee Mike Beltran better buckle up as soon as these two get started, as Meerschaert (37-17, 12-9 UFC) is just as dangerous in the first minute as he is in the last. Ridder (17-2, 0-0 UFC) will be coming over from One Championship, where level of competition and some other policies differ significantly, and it remains to be seen if there are any immediate growing pains. If this hits the ground, hang on tight. The 185ers touch ‘em up, and de Ridder starts out with multiple front kicks. Meerschaert chases after him with a one-two, and de Ridder’s front kick gets plenty of work early. De Ridder awkwardly lunges his way in, and he gets popped with a right hand before backing off. “RDR” chips at the front leg twice before Meerschaert gets his hands on him, with Meerschaert connecting with a series of punches that redden the newcomer’s face up. De Ridder uses a low kick to set up a takedown attempt, scooping up the middleweight submission leader in the UFC and putting him down to the ground. De Ridder passes briefly, but Meerschaert flips him over and fights off a triangle choke setup to allow them both to stand. Meerschaert stabs out a jab, and he rips a left to the ribcage. Meerschaert scores two left hands, and his subsequent right hand draws a funny reaction out of the UFC debutant. Meerschaert checks a body kick and swarms forward with several powerful punches. De Ridder wobbles back, gets clipped with a left hand and ducks down to prevent any further harm. “GM3” shuts down a takedown with ease and slides to the side, and he eats a jab on the way out. A de Ridder low kick gets checked, and he sets up a few punches with a jab and takes a few on the chin before backing off. Meerschaert connects with a solid left hook and jumps guard for a guillotine choke, but de Ridder shucks him out of the way. Meerschaert kicks him off, stands up and deals with a jump knee. Meerschaert stuffs a takedown and sets up a power guillotine, only to use the grip to push off. De Ridder swings wide, has a low kick checked and shoots for a failed entry. Meerschaert drills him with an elbow when fighting of the takedown, and de Ridder pecks at him with distant jabs. Meerschaert gives him one jab back to think about, and de Ridder sits down on a right hand that gets Meerschaert’s attention. Meerschaert closes in and dings him with an uppercut, and he gets sent flying with an elbow and a looping left hand. Before “RDR” can put a stamp on things, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
To start off the second round, de Ridder wants to put hands on what he thinks to be a wounded fighter. Meerschaert appears to have his sea legs out him, and he swings back and tags the newcomer a few times. “RDR” walks him down, wraps up a body lock and hits an easy trip. Meerschaert turns to his side as de Ridder hopes to establish to half guard. De Ridder sneaks in an elbow before Meerschaert hand-fights with two-on-one wrist control on the Dutchman’s left arm, and de Ridder uses the opportunity to nearly slide out of danger. De Ridder sets up a choke while on his seat, and Meerschaert pushes him off and unloads with a lengthy punch combination. De Ridder still works his way upright, threaten with a throw and falls over. Meerschaert jumps on top, moving right into half guard and opening up with strikes. A brief arm-triangle choke from the American is flirted with, but Meerschaert bails on it to nail the debuting fighter with an elbow. De Ridder re-fastens his guard before tugging his toes on the fencing, and he pushes Meerschaert to his feet. “GM3” lowers himself back down while smacking de Ridder in the chops with punches. De Ridder fires back, and he lifts a leg up in hopes of hooking up a triangle. Meerschaert is wise to it and shucks it off, and he takes a few punches from “RDR” off his back. De Ridder fishes for an arm, and he uses it to work his way back to his feet. De Ridder turns the tables with a trip, placing the underdog on his back before having to fight out of an armbar. Meerschaert goes for one more submission as the 10-second clapper sounds, and he flips “RDR” over before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 3
The middleweights touch ‘em up to get the last round going, and Meerschaert is the one pushing the pace in pursuit of a clinch and possible takedown. De Ridder fights his way off the wall, only for Meerschaert to trip him down to his face. De Ridder stands back up, and Meerschaert shoots for a single that is defended. De Ridder drives a knee to the torso while Meerschaert stands up, and he trips “GM3” up and tosses him to the mat like a side of beef. Meerschaert squirms the right direction and puts de Ridder on the mat, evading a front choke while scurrying as fast as he can to put de Ridder on his back.
De Ridder repositions to full mount, and he locks down an arm-triangle choke in a hurry. Meerschaert defends by answering the telephone, and he quickly finds the submission is a bit too tight for his liking. Rather than get put to sleep, a disappointed Meerschaert taps out twice.
Both exhausted fighters fall to their backs, sucking wind now that the fight is over. De Ridder becomes the first fighter since Jack Hermansson in 2018 to force “GM3” to surrender, introducing himself to his new company in a big way.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Gerald Meerschaert R3 1:44 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Angelo picks Reinier de Ridder as the next evolution of Gerald Meerschaert: high-level BJJ with much better takedowns. He notes de Ridder uses his length well and can hang with anyone on the ground. He expects a high-level grappling fight and thinks the UFC matched him up this way on purpose. He will probably bet on de Ridder.

probably will bet on de Ridder
"reer is going to be the pick I think the UFC matched him up this way on purpose so yeah probably going to bet on him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady goes back and forth but ultimately picks Meerschaert, citing de Ridder's poor cardio and striking. He expects de Ridder to come out strong but fade, allowing Meerschaert to take over in the later rounds. He predicts a third-round submission for Meerschaert.

Meerschaert by submission, round 3
"I'll take mirart I'll say third round submission for mirart"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Cody highlights de Ridder's elite grappling credentials, including a draw with Andre Galvao and a competitive loss to Tye Ruotolo. He believes de Ridder's judo and BJJ black belt will neutralize Meerschaert's submission game, and his striking is good enough to win on the feet. Cody expects de Ridder to pass this barometer test and win, possibly by knockout or decision.

"I think he passes it but it's not a walk in the park still a tough fight but I think he should go out there and excel with his skill set."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Connor also picks Meerschaert, agreeing that de Ridder's striking is terrible and that Meerschaert can piece him up. He notes the size difference but thinks Meerschaert's boxing will prevail. He also comments that the odds are too wide in favor of de Ridder.

Odds too wide; de Ridder should not be such a heavy favorite.
"I'm taking Mirchard too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Vreeland picks Gerald Meerschaert as a dog, citing concerns about Reinier de Ridder's stamina and recent performances, including a knockout loss and a quit job. He notes Meerschaert's durability, awkward striking, and record for most submissions in UFC middleweight history. Vreeland expects a late finish if de Ridder doesn't get an early submission.

Meerschaert by late finish
"I'm going with GM3 via late finish."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Lucrative James picks Reinier de Ridder to win, but is hesitant due to the wide odds. He notes that de Ridder is a one-dimensional grappler with poor striking, while Meerschaert is a submission specialist who could catch him. He believes de Ridder's wrestling and size advantage should allow him to dictate where the fight goes, but acknowledges that Meerschaert is dangerous off his back and could pull off a submission. He also mentions considering a bet on Meerschaert due to the value.

"I'll pick the r but honestly I'm considering a bet on gm3"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

De Ridder's ability to take the back will be key. As his grappling wears on Meerschaert, he should open up a submission or ground-and-pound opportunity and get a finish in his UFC debut.

wins by finish
"I believe as the riters grapple heavy approach wears on him he should be able to open up a submission opportunity or a ground and pound opportunity which he should be able to get and get his hand raised in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Paul is not excited about laying -278 on a UFC debutant, but acknowledges de Ridder's experience in big fights and his grappling advantage. He notes that Meerschaert struggles when opponents don't gas and have comparable grappling. Paul thinks de Ridder can win on points or by taking Meerschaert down and controlling him.

"I'm not too excited about laying minus 278 on a guy who hasn't been tested in the UFC yet but he's obviously been in some big fights so he'll be my pick as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

The Guru picks Reinier de Ridder, citing his jiu-jitsu advantage and ability to avoid being fraud-checked in grappling. He worries about de Ridder's stand-up but believes his clinch knees and body work will be key. He predicts de Ridder finishes Meerschaert with knees to the body in the second or third round, surviving any guillotine danger.

TKO via knees to the body, round 2 or 3
"I'm going to go with Raina darid here I may regret this but um M sharts wins Edmund shabazian fumbles everything can't go cardio rounds"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Zane picks Meerschaert, noting that de Ridder cannot strike at all and has no functional pressure. He thinks Meerschaert can outbox him easily. He also mentions that de Ridder's wins are over regional competition and that Meerschaert is a tough out. He suggests a prop on Meerschaert by decision.

Meerschaert wins by decision at +800; fight goes the distance at +150.
"I'm taking Mirchard for sure."
Bo Nickal - Fight History
SCHED vs Kyle Daukaus
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)

AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.

"The reason I'm hesitant on picking Dawis is Bone Nickel is still a freak athlete and an elite elite level wrestler."
KO R3 2:24 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 1 77 of 121 63% 94 of 143 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:28
Rodolfo Vieira 0 24 of 64 37% 31 of 71 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 28 of 46 60% 37 of 60 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:05
Rodolfo Vieira 0 7 of 19 36% 11 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
2 Bo Nickal 0 38 of 59 64% 46 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Rodolfo Vieira 0 14 of 39 35% 17 of 42 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:28
3 Bo Nickal 1 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodolfo Vieira 0 3 of 6 50% 3 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 77 of 121 63% 56 of 93 13 of 19 8 of 9 64 of 103 7 of 9 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 24 of 64 37% 7 of 38 6 of 12 11 of 14 23 of 63 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 28 of 46 60% 22 of 38 4 of 5 2 of 3 16 of 29 6 of 8 6 of 9
Rodolfo Vieira 7 of 19 36% 2 of 10 1 of 3 4 of 6 6 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 38 of 59 64% 27 of 45 7 of 10 4 of 4 37 of 58 1 of 1 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 14 of 39 35% 4 of 24 4 of 8 6 of 7 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 11 of 16 68% 7 of 10 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rodolfo Vieira 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Vieira
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-225), Vieira (+185)

Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Nickal opens with a jab and then a left. He backs up and lands a front kick and a leg kick. They collide and Nickal lifts Viera and executes an emphatic slam. He unleashes a barrage of short punches to the head as Vieira strands. Nickal switches to knees and then lands an elbow that cuts the grappling ace. Vieira turns nickal into the fence and lands some close quarters offense of his own. Nickal frees himself and they’re back int the center of the Octagon. Nickal just misses a left. Vieira ducks under a high kick and Vieira shoots for a takedown against the fence. Nickal briefly threatens with a guillotine but Vieira is OK. Vieira stands and Nickal lands a hard elbow before they break. Vieira fires off a straight right .Nickal has a head kick blocked. A couple lefts land for the American. Vieira probes with a low kick. Nickal pumps a jab and then lands a front kick. Vieira keeps the pressure on , but Nickal is active with his striking, particularly left hands. Another left and a jab get through for Nickal. The round ends without further incident.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 2
Vieira opens with a solid right hand. Vieira catches Nickal coming forward with another rigth. Nickal steps in with a hard body kic. Nickal freezes Vieira with a combination, then lands another body kick. Nickal lunges in and lands another left hand. A couple jabs form Nickal snap Vieira’s head back. Nickal is winning exchanges, relying on combinations and superior hand speed. Vieira is bleeding profusely now. The Brazilian counters a kick with a right and then shoots for a takedown against the fence. Vieira gets an underhook and lands some punches before Nickal frees himself. Another straight left gets through for Nickal. Vieira lands a right as Nickal moves forward. Nickal rocks Vieira with a left and then finds the range on a short uppercut. Vieira is still in the fight, but he’s still bleeding and his eye is swelling shut. Nickal sprawls on a takedown with about 20 seconds left. Nickal lands some short punches and a knee as Vieira stands.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
Vieira lands a decent right during an initial exchange. Nickal pumps out his jab. Nickal lunges in with a left and then lands another left to the body. Another lunging left connects for the Penn State All American. Nickal with a hard inside leg kick. The crowd is getting restless with the pace of the bout, which is mostly one shot at a time — but that’s working well for Nickal. Nickal connects on a 1-2 and then seemingly out of nowhere,
he unleashes a left head kick that lands clean. An unconscious Vieira collapses in a heap on the canvas
, and Nickal knows he needs no follow-up offerings. Nickal climbs on the cage and flips off the crowd in celebration as he rebounds from his first career defeat in emphatic fashion.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira via KO (Head Kick) R3 2:24
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.

"I'm going to pick Bo here because I think what he's going to do is play it safe... I don't think I'm going to touch these minus 220 odds though."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.

decision
"I'm going to say Bo Nickel wins a greasy decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.

"Too much value there. PRP pick. PRP pick Rodolfo Vieira. Don't love it. I really don't, but there's some serious value there."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Connor says 'I think it's likely to be bad and decisive'.
"I'm still going to pick Vera in that fight, but yeah, it could, it could be a real coin flip."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.

"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Bo Nickel, but I'm going to sit back and relax and enjoy the show."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.

by decision
"I'm going to pick Bo Nickel here. I'm going to pick Bickel via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.

"I expect Nickel to land bigger shots on the feet, stuff the takedowns of Vieiraa and punish him with enough volume to end up winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.

"I already bet it. Bet it like plus 205."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.

"I'm going to go bow nickel, though. I am going to go bow nickel. I think he'll figure out Rodo Vieiraa."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Rodolfo Vieira

Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.

Odds: Vieira opened +140, jumped to +175, currently +194. Zane says 'I would be happy as to this was at dead, even odds'.
"I have to pick it off over here. Same. But if he doesn't show up, like if he gets in his own head about this fight, then it could be very touch and go."
KO R2 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Reinier de Ridder 1 22 of 32 68% 91 of 104 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:09
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 21 38% 24 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Reinier de Ridder 0 5 of 10 50% 43 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:52
Bo Nickal 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:00
2 Reinier de Ridder 1 17 of 22 77% 48 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Bo Nickal 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Reinier de Ridder 22 of 32 68% 9 of 18 13 of 14 0 of 0 7 of 15 15 of 17 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 8 of 21 38% 2 of 13 4 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 14 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Reinier de Ridder 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 5 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Reinier de Ridder 17 of 22 77% 7 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0 6 of 10 11 of 12 0 of 0
Bo Nickal 6 of 15 40% 1 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 3 3 of 10 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Reinier de Ridder vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)

Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder

Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.

The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

No bet; cautious despite odds
"Bo Nickal is the pick, but I'm a little weary."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Round 2 KO
"I like Nickel here. Uh, I think Nickel is going to knock out Renee De Ritter at some point in this fight. We'll call it second round knockout for Bo Nickel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Let's split it: I'll pick Bo Nickal, you pick de Ridder."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

knockout
"I think that will eventually lead to Nickel landing a big shot on Ditter and putting him out, winning this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Bo Nickel. I think he has the wrestling instincts. First of all, Derida I don't think gets a takedown on him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Odds: Nickal -332, de Ridder +280. Zane thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em given Nickal's last showing.
"I'll pick de Ridder to just repeat this GM3 fight and we're gonna see... the athletic higher athletic ceiling and much lower level of experience and technical skill are going to balance out."
WIN vs Paul Craig
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 54 of 85 63% 54 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 47 of 129 36% 48 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 35 37% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bo Nickal 0 22 of 26 84% 22 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 21 of 48 43% 21 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bo Nickal 0 16 of 28 57% 16 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Paul Craig 0 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 54 of 85 63% 24 of 50 13 of 16 17 of 19 54 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 47 of 129 36% 21 of 93 14 of 23 12 of 13 47 of 129 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 16 of 31 51% 5 of 17 3 of 5 8 of 9 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 35 37% 4 of 24 4 of 6 5 of 5 13 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 22 of 26 84% 10 of 13 8 of 9 4 of 4 22 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 21 of 48 43% 11 of 33 8 of 12 2 of 3 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bo Nickal 16 of 28 57% 9 of 20 2 of 2 5 of 6 16 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Paul Craig 13 of 46 28% 6 of 36 2 of 5 5 of 5 13 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Paul Craig vs. Bo Nickal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)

Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig

Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.

"B Nichols the clear as day pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.

less than 1.5 takedowns
"I like b nickel here I think he wins this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.

submission
"Bo Nichols sub is my official pick"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Paul Craig

Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.

"I think there's at least a seven to one chance that that happens... give me Paul Craig"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.

"I'm going to be boring and pick the minus 10,000 favorite"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.

"obviously the uh athleticism Youth and strength is is a cheat code and um yeah this point in his career uh Craig does not really have a chance here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.

wins inside the distance, wins in round one
"I think Bo is probably going to stay safe on top so even in Paul Craig's most dangerous realm which is most likely the ground here I still think Bo is going to win that fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.

submission prop at +200
"I do think he'll utilize his striking a little bit more effectively here looking for that knockout against Craig rather than going into the guard which is so dangerous of Craigs although I would not be surprised if Niko wants …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds, knockout
"I'm personally lean towards the knockout I think Bo just Cooks him with a shot as he gets tired"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.

first round KO
"I think b nickel is going to knock out Paul Craig on the feet in round one"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.

Nickal wins via decision or late TKO; potential for Craig submission if Nickal makes a mistake
"I'm gonna pick bone nickel. Yeah, me too because the athleticism is there..."
WIN vs Cody Brundage
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 3:38 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 8 of 13 61% 45 of 59 3 of 6 50% 2 0 7:25
Cody Brundage 0 4 of 12 33% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 5 of 7 71% 24 of 28 2 of 4 50% 0 0 4:25
Cody Brundage 0 2 of 6 33% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Bo Nickal 0 3 of 6 50% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 2 0 3:00
Cody Brundage 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 8 of 13 61% 6 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8
Cody Brundage 4 of 12 33% 1 of 9 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Cody Brundage 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bo Nickal 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4
Cody Brundage 2 of 6 33% 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2100), Brundage (+1100)

Round 1
The main card opens up with the widest discrepancy on the betting lines tonight by a mile. As a prohibitive -1400, Nickal (5-0, 2-0 UFC) is largely expected to walk through the tough but outmatched-on-paper Brundage (10-5, 3-4 UFC). There are many questions that could be answered, as the unbeaten four-time DI NCAA All-American has never before competed beyond the three-minute mark in an MMA match. Whether this match lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, referee Chris Tognoni is on the call and ready for action. The underdog offers a glove touch, but Nickal wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Nickal fakes shooting for a takedown almost immediately. Brundage is well out of the way, and he fires off a flying head kick and a jump knee. Brundage lands a hard right hand to surprise the unbeaten fighter, and Nickal responds with a power punch and a takedown attempt. Brundage rolls through to get back to his feet, and Nickal presses him hard against the fence. Nickal scoops Brundage up and slams him down, and Brundage pops right back up without batting an eye. Nickal succeeds to get a mat return, dropping Brundage down to his knees, but Brundage stands up before Nickal can get hooks in. Nickal pushes down his full body weight to trap Brundage down on the ground, and he slithers a hook in and sneaks his arm under the chin for a second. Brundage turns his head to the side to thwart the choke, and Nickal keeps one arm on the chin to threaten. Brundage hand-fights to stop the choke from landing, and Nickal elects to just brute force squeeze his head like a nutcracker. Brundage pushes off enough to get space, and Nickal steps over to full mount while claiming a guillotine. Nickal sits up and has Brundage’s left arm trapped beneath his legs, and he starts beating on Brundage with elbows. Brundage times a shifting Nickal to turn to his knees and lean against the wall, and Nickal stays on him without a hook in fishing for a choke. Nickal gets a hook in from behind, and Brundage keeps two-on-one wrist control to stop any submission danger. Nickal bops him in the face with feeble punches, and Brundage laughs him off as the crowd gives it up for him. Brundage maintains control on the wrist and signals for Tognoni to let him up, and he rides out the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Nickal

Round 2
As soon as the round begins, Tognoni calls time to remove some debris from the Octagon. The fighter begin, and Brundage walks Nickal down and lines up an overhand right. Nickal throws a high kick from an odd angle, and when he tries to transition to a takedown, Brundage slings him mightily to the ground. Brundage goes after him and tries to lay into him with strikes, but Nickal recovers, shoots and completes a takedown. Brundage turns to his side as he tries to stand, and Nickal lands sporadic ground-and-pound as he moves into half guard. The crowd gets restless again at Nickal wrestling so heavily, but he ignores it and passes the full mount. Brundage throws punches from his back, and Nickal presses his chest down to set up an arm-triangle choke. Nickal lets it go to land a punch, and he hunts for elbows while Brundage holds onto his face. Nickal postures up and slams down some ground-and-pound, forcing Brundage to turn around and give up his back. Brundage finds himself in immediately submission danger, with Nickal latching onto a rear-naked choke grip that is not yet beneath the chin. Brundage fights off the choke, and Nickal switches arms and slithers the forearm under the chin. Brundage knows he has been outhustled here, and he surrenders before the choke puts him out. Nickal releases the grip on the tap, and he stands up and starts booing himself while putting both thumbs down. He appears not impressed with his own performance.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Cody Brundage R2 3:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling the -2400 odds correct with 96% implied probability. He notes Brundage has power and could land a lucky shot, but Nickal's wrestling is overwhelming. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to poor value and suggests under 1.5 rounds as a better bet.

Under 1.5 rounds; advises not to parlay
"the minus 2400 odds on b nickel now are honestly correct that converts ... 96% and I am 96% sure that b nickel wins this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, noting his elite wrestling and the low level of competition he's faced. He points out that Brundage has poor fight IQ, citing his pulling guard on Ralek Gracie when he was winning, and his tendency to gas out. Cody mentions Brundage has been taken down by Nick Maximov and has no dynamic striking. He expects Nickal to dominate and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission, and thinks the fight won't go past the first round and a half.

Inside the distance, under 1.5 rounds
"Bo romps this guy I'm thinking under one and a half B I want to say by TKO submission is obviously on the table though so you're probably going B inside the distance."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, noting that even high-IQ Cody Brundage plays into Nickal's strengths. He mentions that Brundage's path to victory is narrow, possibly a knockout, but that Nickal's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are world-class. He suggests that if betting Brundage, one should take a KO prop at high odds rather than the moneyline.

Cody Brundage KO prop at plus 3000 or first round KO at plus 5500
"high IQ Cody brage is the Cody brage that plays right into B Nichols strength so even high IQ Cody brage would will not win this fight"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal to win, but notes he is not laying 25 units to win one. He acknowledges Nickal's wrestling advantage and expects a first-round finish, but warns that Brundage has knockout power and could pull off an upset. Vreeland is curious to see Nickal past round one but believes he will dominate.

"pure pick is Bo Nickal but no I am not laying 25 units to win one"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jeff Fox picks Bo Nickal, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that if he had $100 to bet and didn't want to lose it, he'd bet Nickal. He mentions that Brundage could knock Nickal out, but that's a low-probability event, and that Nickal is the safe pick.

"if I got a $100 I've got a $100 that I got a bet on this fight and I don't want to lose my1 I bet b n"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Apr 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it is what it is but it's good to see Bo Nickal continue his rise. He mentions Cody Brundage has cashed tickets for him in the past. No prediction is given.

"Bo Nickal versus Cody Brundage is what it is but it's good to see Bo Nickal and you know Cody Brundage is the man for cashing us all those tickets over the years"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal will get to his takedown quickly and rain down big shots from top position for a TKO win. Brundage is the toughest opponent Nickal has faced but it won't be enough.

TKO
"I think we'll see nickel get to his takedown pretty quickly here and then from that top position rain down big shots and win this fight by TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul sees this as a clear mismatch. He notes that Nickal hasn't faced any adversity yet, so his chin and resolve are untested, but Brundage is not the guy to test them. Paul calls Brundage 'Cody Bumd' and points out his poor performances, including getting knocked out by Alexei Kunchenko and being outgrappled by Nick Maximov. He believes Nickal will easily take Brundage down and finish him. Paul says the moneyline is too short to bet, but everyone will take Nickal inside the distance.

Inside the distance
"I mean the money line what can you do with it but I think everybody's going to take this one inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round finish, calling Cody Brundage a sacrificial lamb. He criticizes Brundage's recent wins as flukes and believes Nickal is superior everywhere. He notes Nickal's high-pressure experience and predicts a rear-naked choke or TKO.

first round finish
"Bo nickel gone rag go this fat boy and he's going to find the finish I reckon by rear naked choke."
WIN vs Val Woodburn
TKO (punches) R1 0:38 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Val Woodburn 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Val Woodburn 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Val Woodburn 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 1 of 1
Val Woodburn 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Valentine Woodburn
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2400), Woodburn (+1200)

Round 1
On quite short notice, this middleweight main card opener has changed. No longer squaring off with Tresean Gore, Nickal (4-0, 1-0 UFC) now will meet promotional newcomer and Combat Night staple Woodburn (7-0, 0-0 UFC). Someone’s 0 has got to go, but based on the incredible -1600 line (or higher) in favor of the Penn State wrestler, the consensus expectation is that Nickal will proceed unscathed. This sport is a wild one, and anything truly can happen. Whether it is a monumental upset or smooth sailing, referee Chris Tognoni will proceed over the whole kit and caboodle. The 185ers do not bother to touch gloves, and they work their way towards one another. Nickal feints and fakes takedowns, and Woodburn chambers a right hand. Woodburn whiffs on a huge right hand, and Nickal crashes forward but disengages before he eats a shot. Nickal connects with a right hand, and Woodburn’s bell is rung. Nickal does not think to change levels, and instead times a blistering left hand that catches Woodburn right on the chin. The wrestler unloads with an uppercut, knocking Woodburn clean off his feet. As Woodburn falls to the ground, Nickal considers hammering the nail but Tognoni is already rushing between them to wave the fight off. Even though Nickal was largely expected to blow through this challenge, he still managed to make a statement by dispatching Woodburn handily with strikes. At 5-0, Nickal is definitely one to watch in the middleweight category.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Valentine Woodburn R1 0:38 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is extremely confident in Nickal, saying he will dominate and finish. He dismisses the idea that Nickal only won his last fight due to a nutshot. He notes Nickal's wrestling pedigree and that Woodburn is a regional wrestler who didn't use wrestling until his last fight. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to minus-1400 odds, but suggests looking for prop bets like first-round submission.

Suggests first-round submission prop at plus money
"Bo nickel is going to win this fight he dominates it's going to be a finish"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission. He notes that Nickal is a phenomenal wrestler with dangerous grappling, and he expects him to take Woodburn down and choke him out. He questions what happens if Woodburn survives the first round, but believes Nickal will finish early. He comments that the odds (-1400) are wide but that Nickal should win easily. He says we will learn nothing about Nickal from this fight.

first round submission
"bow nickel first round submission takes down Trey Sean Gore takes his back and chokes him out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance. He notes Nickal's wrestling is elite and he will take Woodburn down and submit him quickly. He mentions Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with no path to victory. He says the moneyline is unplayable at -2500 but inside distance is the way to go.

Nickal inside distance, under 1.5 rounds, under 10.5 significant strikes
"bow nickel inside the same thing with Joanna's and burrito for the record he was minus 500 inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, emphasizing that Woodburn's poor striking at range and tendency to crowd himself will make him easy to take down. He notes that Woodburn's only comfortable punching range is in the clinch, which is exactly where Nickal wants to be. Connor is critical of the odds but still sees Nickal as a clear winner.

"Obviously, we're gonna pick him without question here really."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Daniel Levi picks Nickal, emphasizing his elite wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He notes that Woodburn is a short, stocky fighter with a good base for takedown defense, but that Nickal's level of wrestling is too high. Levi expects Nickal to finish Woodburn in the first round, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound. He respects Woodburn for taking the fight on short notice but believes this is a mismatch.

Finish in the first round
"I got Beau nickel to blast double this man and finish him in the first round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Bo Nickal

James thinks Bo Nickal will destroy Val Woodburn in round one, but he criticizes the line making Nickal the biggest favorite in UFC history. He argues that we don't know Nickal's chin or cardio, so the line is too wide. He considers a small bet on Woodburn for value but ultimately expects Nickal to win easily.

Bo Nickal wins in round 1; considered 0.1 units on Val Woodburn for value
"I think Bo destroys him in round one"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a high-level wrestler with improving MMA skills, while Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with limited gas tank and mediocre skills. Nickal will take Woodburn down early and secure a submission. The under 1.5 rounds is a very chalky but confident play.

under 1.5 rounds, round 1 submission
"round one submission just as I thought he would get over to Sean Gore same thing is going to happen here against Woodburn give me nickel."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal wins easily. He notes Woodburn is a regional fighter with no chance. He says Nickal will take him down and submit him. He mentions the significant strikes prop at 10.5 might be high because Nickal usually finishes quickly with few strikes.

Nickal inside distance, under 10.5 significant strikes
"Bo just takes him down whenever he wants to take them down and and Subs him as he wants to sub him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by submission (rear-naked choke). He acknowledges Woodburn's guillotine threat but believes Nickal's superior wrestling and preparation will overcome it. He notes that Woodburn was taken down by Brian Battle, and Nickal is a much better wrestler. He suggests a small bet on Woodburn by finish due to the odds.

wins by submission (rear-naked choke); suggests sprinkling money on Woodburn by finish due to crazy odds
"Bo nickel is going to choke him out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane picks Nickal easily, noting that Woodburn's crude technique and reliance on the clinch for punching will play into Nickal's wrestling strength. He acknowledges that Nickal is still raw as an MMA striker but believes his wrestling advantage is overwhelming. Zane warns that Nickal's odds are too high for a prospect, but he still expects a win.

"Pretty easy pick for nickel."
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:54 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bo Nickal 0 1 of 4 25% 3 of 6 1 of 4 25% 2 0 2:30
Jamie Pickett 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bo Nickal 1 of 4 25% 0 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bo Nickal vs. Jamie Pickett
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)

Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.

The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.

"Bo nickel should win he's the closest thing to a guarantee that you will get in the sport"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.

first round submission
"this is Beau Nickel in the first round first round by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.

Under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't get out of the first round; Bo Nickal inside the distance
"under one and a half for me flight doesn't get out of the first round Bo nickel inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.

Mentions Nickal by TKO/KO +175 to +225, by submission -165 to -143. Suggests Nickal by finish is likely.
"Bo Nickal is going to beat the pants off Jamie Pickett. All right, done."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lock picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.

"this is a bow nickel play all the way"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.

Nickal wins in round 1
"Bo nickel will win this fight any way he wants he will get the takedown he'll be able to wrap up a submission I think he does it within the first round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.

Under 1.5 rounds (-300); considers a small sprinkle on the over as a longshot
"I mean it's it's all the entire Market is like bow nickel is going to absolutely kill them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.

First round submission predicted
"I'm going with bow nickel... I think he's gonna go out there get the takedown and get the sub."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.

"He is the definition of a gentle giant... crumbled faster than Jordan Wright."
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.

No bet; cautious despite odds
"Bo Nickal is the pick, but I'm a little weary."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.

Round 2 KO
"I like Nickel here. Uh, I think Nickel is going to knock out Renee De Ritter at some point in this fight. We'll call it second round knockout for Bo Nickel."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Let's split it: I'll pick Bo Nickal, you pick de Ridder."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.

knockout
"I think that will eventually lead to Nickel landing a big shot on Ditter and putting him out, winning this fight by knockout."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Bo Nickal

The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.

first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Bo Nickel. I think he has the wrestling instincts. First of all, Derida I don't think gets a takedown on him."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Reinier de Ridder

Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.

Odds: Nickal -332, de Ridder +280. Zane thinks the odds should be closer to a pick'em given Nickal's last showing.
"I'll pick de Ridder to just repeat this GM3 fight and we're gonna see... the athletic higher athletic ceiling and much lower level of experience and technical skill are going to balance out."
Comments (1)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Bo nickel by decision seems on par for this as he keeps it on the feet.