Career Averages - Marina Rodriguez
Career Averages - Gillian Robertson
Marina Rodriguez
Gillian Robertson
Marina Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 33 of 99 | 33% | 65 of 134 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 30 of 73 | 41% | 55 of 104 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 4:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 20 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 0 | 12 of 37 | 32% | 26 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 11 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iasmin Lucindo | 33 of 99 | 33% | 28 of 89 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 3 | 28 of 92 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 30 of 73 | 41% | 19 of 56 | 9 of 13 | 2 of 4 | 27 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iasmin Lucindo | 5 of 25 | 20% | 4 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Iasmin Lucindo | 16 of 37 | 43% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Iasmin Lucindo | 12 of 37 | 32% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 9 of 16 | 56% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling, and pressure. He notes Marina Rodriguez has subpar takedown defense and a weak get-up game, which Lucindo can exploit. However, he is concerned about Lucindo's cardio at elevation, as she needs to grind for 15 minutes. He does not bet on this fight due to the elevation risk.
Big Brady picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth (22 vs 37) and wrestling advantage. He notes that Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and struggles to get back up when taken down. He expects Lucindo to mix in takedowns and win a decision, though he acknowledges the line is a bit steep for someone unproven.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a dog, citing her experience and power. He questions Lucindo's level of competition and believes Rodriguez can keep the fight standing and land bigger shots. He expects Rodriguez to win by decision or late finish.
Connor picks Lucindo despite acknowledging her technical flaws. He notes that Rodriguez has looked shell-shocked lately and may lose confidence if Lucindo's speed and early pressure put her behind. However, he admits Lucindo is not a complex striker and Rodriguez could take over if she finds her rhythm.
Daniel Vreeland picks Iasmin Lucindo, citing her youth and takedown ability. He notes that Marina Rodriguez has always struggled with takedown defense, even in her prime, and at 37 it will be worse. Lucindo has landed eight takedowns in her last three fights. Vreeland expects Lucindo to use her wrestling to control the fight and win a decision.
The host leans with veteran experience of Marina Rodriguez, believing she is the better striker. He thinks Lucindo does not control opponents on the mat well enough, forcing her to strike with the better striker and ultimately lose on the scorecards. He predicts Rodriguez by decision.
Paul leans toward Rodriguez, noting her experience against top competition. He thinks Lucindo is being overvalued and that Rodriguez's defensive grappling is underrated. He sees value at plus 150.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Iasmin Lucindo, despite acknowledging Lucindo's physical advantages. He believes Rodriguez has better performances against higher competition, citing wins over Michelle Waterson and a close split decision with Jessica Andrade. He notes Rodriguez's technique and composure will be key at altitude, and predicts a decision win.
Zane also picks Lucindo, citing her speed and youth as advantages. He notes that Rodriguez has struggled recently and may not recover if Lucindo builds an early lead. However, he acknowledges that Lucindo's lack of range control and technical gaps could allow Rodriguez to take over.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 89 of 180 | 49% | 124 of 220 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:53 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 82 of 228 | 35% | 94 of 241 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 49 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 42 of 86 | 48% | 42 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 107 | 32% | 35 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 31 of 85 | 36% | 32 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jéssica Andrade | 89 of 180 | 49% | 35 of 110 | 14 of 18 | 40 of 52 | 79 of 165 | 7 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 82 of 228 | 35% | 70 of 207 | 9 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 77 of 220 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jéssica Andrade | 14 of 23 | 60% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 16 of 36 | 44% | 9 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jéssica Andrade | 42 of 86 | 48% | 21 of 59 | 8 of 11 | 13 of 16 | 35 of 75 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 35 of 107 | 32% | 34 of 104 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 33 of 104 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jéssica Andrade | 33 of 71 | 46% | 12 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 22 | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 31 of 85 | 36% | 27 of 75 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 28 of 81 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez as the better technical fighter who can keep Andrade at range with her boxing and length. He notes Andrade's bullying style can be effective but Rodriguez should piece her up if she avoids clinch exchanges. He calls the fight dead even odds-wise and says no bets are safe.
Cody is torn but leans Rodriguez. He notes Andrade's inconsistency due to personal issues (divorce) and her tendency to not wrestle. Rodriguez has a clear path: counter punching. Cody points out that Andrade runs forward aggressively, which could run into Rodriguez's right hand. He also mentions Rodriguez's takedown defense is decent (66%) and she has the skills to survive if taken down. Cody thinks this is the best women's underdog on the card and picks Rodriguez to spring the upset.
Connor picks Rodriguez, agreeing that Andrade's clinch deficiencies will be exploited. He notes that Rodriguez is a great clinch fighter and Andrade has poor posture and gets hit with knees. Connor also points out that Rodriguez is durable and does not slow down, while Andrade's confidence is fragile. He sees Rodriguez winning by controlling the clinch and landing strikes.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jéssica Andrade, citing her power, physicality, and grappling advantage. He believes Andrade can land takedowns and control Rodriguez on the ground, and that Rodriguez lacks the power to deter her. Vreeland acknowledges Rodriguez's striking but trusts Andrade's durability and aggression.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He discusses the title implications, saying the winner will be in line for a title shot. He notes that Andrade always walks forward and the fight is guaranteed to be good, but does not pick a winner.
Andrade should drag the fight to the ground and land ground and pound from top position. She also has power on the feet. Rodriguez has reach and height but will struggle to keep Andrade off her. Andrade wins on the scorecards.
Paul agrees, noting that Andrade doesn't wrestle enough and Rodriguez has a striking advantage. He points out that Andrade's recent wins over Mackenzie Dern and Lauren Murphy were impressive, but she has also looked terrible against Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield. Paul thinks Rodriguez's counter right hand is a real threat and that Andrade's aggressive style plays into it. He mentions that if you're looking for a dog with a clear path, Rodriguez is it.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by TKO, criticizing Jéssica Andrade for making Erin Blanchfield look competent. He believes Rodriguez will be patient, outpoint Andrade on the outside, and land knees and elbows in the clinch. He predicts Andrade will rush in and walk into strikes.
Zane picks Rodriguez, citing her clinch game and size advantage. He notes that Andrade is terrible in the clinch despite her strength, and Rodriguez is a powerful clinch fighter. Zane argues that Andrade's confidence is unreliable and that Rodriguez's durability and pressure will wear her down. He also mentions that Andrade's recent win over Mackenzie Dern may have been a confidence boost, but Rodriguez is a tougher matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 70 of 102 | 68% | 90 of 130 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 16 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 51 of 75 | 68% | 67 of 99 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 13 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 19 of 27 | 70% | 23 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 70 of 102 | 68% | 47 of 70 | 22 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 53 of 73 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 13 of 32 | 40% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 51 of 75 | 68% | 38 of 56 | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 | 45 of 62 | 0 of 0 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 10 of 20 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 6 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 19 of 27 | 70% | 9 of 14 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 10 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo trusts Marina slightly more to push the action and keep her boxing in Michelle's face. He notes Michelle has more dynamic striking and experience but is inconsistent. He thinks the fight likely goes to decision and suggests betting over 2.5 rounds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez confidently, expecting a decision win. He notes Rodriguez is the better striker with power, while Waterson-Gomez has zero power and relies on volume. He thinks the fight will stay standing and Rodriguez will do more damage. He mentions Waterson-Gomez could try takedowns but doubts she will. He calls the rematch unnecessary.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez by decision, expecting a similar outcome to their first fight. He notes Rodriguez's size, output, and ability to stuff takedowns, while Waterson has declined and struggles to implement her grappling. He sees no significant improvements from Waterson and believes Rodriguez will outwork her again.
Daniel is confident Rodriguez wins, citing her massive volume and reach advantage on the feet. He rewatched their first fight and saw Rodriguez dominate until getting taken down in round 4. He believes if Rodriguez avoids extended time on bottom, she will out-strike Waterson decisively. He notes Waterson's low output and age (37) as concerns, and thinks Rodriguez covers the -300 line.
Lucrative James is confident Rodriguez will win, calling Waterson washed and not good on the ground. He thinks Rodriguez will piece her up and sees value at -300, estimating her true probability at 85%. He also considers betting the under or Rodriguez by KO, but is wary of recent losses on women's unders.
The host picks Rodriguez at minus 300, expecting a repeat of their first fight where Rodriguez battered Waterson-Gomez on the feet. He notes Waterson-Gomez's underrated BJJ but poor wrestling to get the fight down, and that Rodriguez's takedown defense and clinch work (knees, elbows) will keep it standing. He acknowledges both are on losing streaks but sees Rodriguez as the younger, more powerful striker who wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Rodriguez, but won't bet at -300. He likes Rodriguez's over 70.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks, noting she landed 78 in the first fight. He thinks Waterson's takedown threat is minimal and Rodriguez will out-strike her again.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Marina Rodriguez, noting she already beat Michelle Waterson in their first fight, winning 4-1 on rounds. He criticizes Waterson's three-fight losing streak and questions the rematch. He defends Rodriguez's loss to Amanda Lemos as an early stoppage and praises her grappling awareness against Mackenzie Dern. He believes Rodriguez's striking and overall game are clearly superior.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 33 of 62 | 53% | 115 of 150 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 91 of 116 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 12:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 31 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 34 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 0 | 21 of 42 | 50% | 70 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 26 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virna Jandiroba | 33 of 62 | 53% | 27 of 52 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 20 of 22 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 25 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virna Jandiroba | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Virna Jandiroba | 5 of 11 | 45% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Virna Jandiroba | 21 of 42 | 50% | 19 of 37 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 12 of 20 | 60% | 10 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but warns it feels like a trap and advises not to bet on it. He believes Marina has a clear striking advantage and will land cleanly, while Virna Jandiroba's head movement is poor. The fight comes down to Marina's takedown defense; if she can keep it standing, she wins. Angelo thinks Virna will have some success diving for legs, but judges will favor Marina's clean striking. He is not touching this fight with his money.
Big Brady picks Jandiroba, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He notes Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and get-up game, and Jandiroba is dangerous on top. He believes Jandiroba will get takedowns and submit Rodriguez, predicting a second-round submission. He dismisses Rodriguez's takedown defense against Mackenzie Dern as irrelevant because Dern has poor wrestling.
Cody sees a clear path for Jandiroba via her superior wrestling. He notes that Rodriguez gives up takedowns in every fight, and Jandiroba is a strong wrestler with good top game. He expects Jandiroba to take her down, control her, and win a decision or possibly a submission. He likes the plus money.
Connor agrees, noting Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she reaches for strikes, while Rodriguez is durable and has never been submitted. He sees the fight getting harder for Jandiroba as it goes on, similar to Rodriguez's fight with Ribas where Ribas got knocked out after an early takedown.
The host picks Marina Rodriguez by decision. He believes Rodriguez's improved takedown defense and striking will keep the fight standing, where she can land significant strikes. He acknowledges Jandiroba's BJJ threat but trusts Rodriguez's recent improvements to nullify it.
Paul has already bet Jandiroba at +140. He agrees that her wrestling is the key, as Rodriguez has been taken down by everyone. He expects Jandiroba to make it ugly, hold her against the cage, and win a close decision.
The Guru picks Rodriguez, stating she is better in all areas, especially on the feet. He believes her grappling has improved enough to survive Jandiroba's ground game, and that she is a better version of Amanda Ribas, who beat Jandiroba. He predicts a decision win.
Zane picks Rodriguez because Jandiroba is unlikely to get an early submission, and Rodriguez gets harder to take down as fights go on. He notes Jandiroba's striking is awkward and she struggles on the back foot, while Rodriguez's pressure and durability should take over in later rounds. He compares it to Rodriguez's win over Amanda Ribas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 19 of 52 | 36% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 43 of 67 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 11 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 26 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 22 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 19 of 52 | 36% | 6 of 26 | 3 of 8 | 10 of 18 | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 29 of 53 | 54% | 16 of 36 | 10 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 9 of 29 | 31% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 15 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 18 | 61% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 19 | 52% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.
Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.
Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.
Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.
The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.
Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 72 of 200 | 36% | 79 of 207 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 56 of 132 | 42% | 66 of 143 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 18 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 25 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 107 | 37% | 41 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 19 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 72 of 200 | 36% | 46 of 166 | 18 of 19 | 8 of 15 | 59 of 182 | 13 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 56 of 132 | 42% | 37 of 105 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 18 | 48 of 121 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 18 of 48 | 37% | 9 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 8 | 16 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 24 of 54 | 44% | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 8 | 21 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 14 of 45 | 31% | 9 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 9 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 14 of 34 | 41% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 40 of 107 | 37% | 28 of 93 | 10 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 99 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Yan Xiaonan | 18 of 44 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Marina is faster and more powerful, and that Yan has only executed a wrestle-heavy game plan once. He plans to place a plus 3.5 round bet on Yan, buying a round on the scorecard. He calls Yan 'stupid live' at the current odds.
Big Brady picks Marina Rodriguez to win by decision. He believes Rodriguez will have a significant power advantage on the feet and that Yan Xiaonan is unlikely to attempt takedowns, which plays into Rodriguez's strengths. Brady notes that Rodriguez has improved her takedown defense and ground game, making it hard for Yan to take her down. He acknowledges the line is a bit steep at -250 but still favors Rodriguez to win.
Cody believes Rodriguez is the rightful favorite because she has never lost a striking battle and hits hard for the division. He notes her takedown defense is a concern but argues Yan's wrestling is not elite, based on tape of Yan's takedowns against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Cody thinks if Yan can't take her down, Rodriguez wins the striking exchanges with volume and power.
Daniel Levi picks Yan Xiaonan as a dog, citing the plus 250 odds. He believes this will be a close, competitive striking match and that Yan has the striking acumen to edge out a decision. He notes that Marina has only landed one takedown in her UFC career, so there is little takedown threat. He acknowledges Marina's improvements but thinks the odds are too wide and Yan has value.
The line is too wide; this is a 50/50 fight. Yan's power striking and training at Team Alpha Male should pose problems for Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a striker but hasn't faced someone with Yan's power. Yan's takedown defense is a concern, but Rodriguez rarely grapples. At plus money, Yan is the clear value pick. Yan can outstrike Rodriguez and win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Rodriguez's striking volume and power. He is skeptical of Yan's wrestling after watching the Kowalkiewicz fight, where Yan's takedowns were not from clean entries but rather Kowalkiewicz giving up position. Paul believes if Yan cannot take Rodriguez down, she will lose the striking battle. He calls it a women's MMA fight but is confident in Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez over Yan Xiaonan, expecting a striking affair. He notes Yan's main weakness is grappling, but believes Rodriguez has improved her cardio and striking variety, using more kicks to the body and legs. He thinks Rodriguez is more powerful and tougher, predicting a 30-27 decision where she pieces Yan apart. He also expresses a hot take that Rodriguez will become champion.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 49 of 174 | 28% | 80 of 209 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 7:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 144 of 279 | 51% | 148 of 284 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 7 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 4:21 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 8 of 35 | 22% | 8 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 45 of 91 | 49% | 47 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 15 of 54 | 27% | 21 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 65 | 56% | 37 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 46 | 23% | 11 of 46 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 0 | 37 of 68 | 54% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 49 of 174 | 28% | 41 of 158 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 155 | 1 of 3 | 12 of 16 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 144 of 279 | 51% | 72 of 186 | 39 of 58 | 33 of 35 | 124 of 257 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 5 of 17 | 29% | 4 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 24 of 49 | 48% | 9 of 31 | 10 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 44 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 10 of 22 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 13 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marina Rodriguez | 8 of 35 | 22% | 7 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 45 of 91 | 49% | 28 of 66 | 8 of 15 | 9 of 10 | 37 of 82 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Marina Rodriguez | 15 of 54 | 27% | 12 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 65 | 56% | 14 of 36 | 13 of 19 | 10 of 10 | 34 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Marina Rodriguez | 11 of 46 | 23% | 8 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mackenzie Dern | 37 of 68 | 54% | 21 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 | 33 of 64 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Marina Rodriguez, calling her the more complete fighter with superior striking and takedown defense. He notes her wins over top competition and Dern's poor takedown accuracy. He has a money line bet on Rodriguez at plus 145. He thinks Dern's only path is submission, but Rodriguez can avoid the ground.
Big Brady, despite being a self-proclaimed Dern hater, picks her to win by submission. He notes that Dern only needs one takedown to finish the fight, and Rodriguez has poor takedown defense and ground game. He references Rodriguez being taken down by multiple opponents and her poor get-up game. Brady thinks Dern will eventually get the takedown and submit her, but he would not bet her as a favorite at these odds.
Cody leans toward Dern because he believes the fight will eventually hit the ground over five rounds, where Dern's BJJ is leaps and bounds better than Rodriguez's. He notes Rodriguez has a clear striking advantage and Dern's wrestling is not elite, but Dern has shown improvements and can capitalize on scrambles. He suggests live betting Dern after she loses the early rounds, and predicts a third or fourth round submission or a decision.
Daniel Levi acknowledges that Marina Rodriguez is a superior striker, comparing her to a young Joanna Jedrzejczyk, but he is concerned about her takedown defense. He notes that Mackenzie Dern's hands have improved under Jason Parillo and she has power, but her path to victory is getting the fight to the mat. He predicts Dern will secure a takedown and finish via submission, though he admits if Dern doesn't submit her early, the fight becomes uncertain.
Jacob is extremely confident in Mackenzie Dern, calling her the lock of the week. He believes her jiu-jitsu is unmatched and that if the fight goes to the ground, she will submit Rodriguez. He dismisses Rodriguez's striking improvements and plans to bet 20 units on Dern at minus 160. He thinks Dern's striking has improved enough to get the fight to the mat.
The host picks Mackenzie Dern, citing her elite BJJ and ability to secure a takedown against Marina Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez has been taken down before (e.g., by Amanda Ribas) and that Dern's jiu-jitsu is superior. He believes Dern can remain safe on the feet long enough to close the distance and get the fight to the ground, where she will likely find a submission. He also mentions the low variance of grappling compared to striking, favoring the grappler. He predicts a second-round submission.
Paul is leaning toward Dern, acknowledging that Rodriguez has advantages on the feet but Dern's submission threat and improved striking make her dangerous. He notes Dern's wrestling is not great but she can create chaotic scrambles. He is hesitant because Dern has cost him money before, but he sees her path to victory via submission or decision.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez to win by unanimous decision as an underdog. He highlights her striking accuracy, power, and takedown defense (62%). He questions Dern's late start in sparring and believes Rodriguez's experience and reach advantage will be decisive. He advises betting on Rodriguez before odds change.
Gillian Robertson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 0 | 42 of 73 | 57% | 51 of 84 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 2:04 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 64 of 81 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 9:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 25 of 37 | 67% | 27 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:40 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 9 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:38 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:06 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 29 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 3:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amanda Lemos | 42 of 73 | 57% | 31 of 61 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 27 of 57 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 14 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 26 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amanda Lemos | 25 of 37 | 67% | 18 of 29 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 15 | 33% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Amanda Lemos | 10 of 19 | 52% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Gillian Robertson | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Amanda Lemos | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.
Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.
Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.
Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.
James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.
The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.
Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.
Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.
Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.
Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.
Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 16 of 41 | 39% | 73 of 120 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 13 | 15% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 42 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 5 of 16 | 31% | 31 of 57 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Rodriguez | 4 of 17 | 23% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 16 of 41 | 39% | 12 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 13 | 15% | 2 of 11 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 11 of 25 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Marina Rodriguez | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 5 of 16 | 31% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 |
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 42 of 105 | 40% | 63 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:17 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 52 of 108 | 48% | 78 of 145 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 8:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 25 of 61 | 40% | 29 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 20 of 47 | 42% | 22 of 55 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 18 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 0 | 17 of 29 | 58% | 41 of 55 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 4:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 42 of 105 | 40% | 23 of 84 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 102 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 52 of 108 | 48% | 33 of 72 | 5 of 18 | 14 of 18 | 28 of 76 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 28 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 14 of 38 | 36% | 8 of 32 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 15 of 32 | 46% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 8 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 25 of 61 | 40% | 13 of 48 | 11 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 20 of 47 | 42% | 11 of 32 | 3 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 44 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luana Pinheiro | 17 of 29 | 58% | 16 of 23 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 20 |
Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.
Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.
Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.
Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.
This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.
Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.
Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 41 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 77 of 105 | 73% | 122 of 156 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 11 of 37 | 29% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 36 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:23 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 13 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 27 of 31 | 87% | 48 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 4:49 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 13 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 0 | 23 of 31 | 74% | 38 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 4:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 21 of 52 | 40% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 11 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 77 of 105 | 73% | 67 of 94 | 9 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 67 of 81 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 11 of 37 | 29% | 9 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 43 | 62% | 23 of 39 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 24 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 27 of 31 | 87% | 22 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 30 | |
| 3 | Gillian Robertson | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 7 |
| Michelle Waterson-Gomez | 23 of 31 | 74% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 27 |
Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.
Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.
Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.
The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 49 of 91 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 6:06 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 33 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 20 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 33 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Polyana Viana | 0 | 4 of 23 | 17% | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 23 of 39 | 58% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 26 |
| Polyana Viana | 12 of 41 | 29% | 10 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 8 of 13 | 61% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Polyana Viana | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 15 of 26 | 57% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 18 |
| Polyana Viana | 4 of 23 | 17% | 3 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Robertson (-230), Viana (+190)
Round 1
Strawweight grapplers are up next, with Robertson trying to even things up at 2-2 for Team Canada against her Brazilian counterpart. The referee is Kevin Macdonald. Both women are in orthodox stance, and Viana is the first to land, sticking Robertson with a long jab. They exchange jabs and Viana punctuates with a body kick. Robertson times a nice single-leg and hauls Viana down with ease. Robertson is on top in Viana’s half guard, leaning across her body and elbowing the ribs. Viana locks down the left leg and Robertson works for a straight armlock on the far arm. Robertson gives up on the arm attack and goes heavy on top, working to pass her guard as she does. Robertson throws two elbow strikes and slides right into mount. A couple more elbow strikes and Viana turns to the side. Robertson applies an arm-triangle choke and tries to move out to the side to finish. Viana manages to regain guard, but gives up her back a moment later. A minute to go in the round and Robertson is in back mount. She goes supine, rolls Viana on top of her, and Viana gives up mount. Robertson peels off for an armbar. It’s locked in and close to danger territory, but Viana extricates her arm and escapes. They return to their feet at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Round 2
Viana lands a low kick and slips the counter coming back her way. Viana tags Robertson with a straight right, then another, both of which glance off the guard. Robertson steps in, grabs a single-leg and gets another effortless takedown. She moves quickly to mount and Viana turns her back. Robertson is on top, drops an elbow and is in position to look for a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Robertson throws several hard punches that bounce off the forearm but still rattle the Brazilian’s head.
Robertson is all over Viana at the halfway point of the round, landing ground-and-pound. She keeps pouring it on and after 10 or more solid blows with no reaction from the turtled Viana, Macdonald steps in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Gillian Robertson def. Polyana Viana R2 3:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.
Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.
Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.
I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.
Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.
The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 100 of 315 | 31% | 101 of 318 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 76 of 219 | 34% | 78 of 225 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 29 of 80 | 36% | 30 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 12 of 48 | 25% | 14 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 31 of 114 | 27% | 31 of 115 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 36 of 86 | 41% | 36 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 0 | 40 of 121 | 33% | 40 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 28 of 85 | 32% | 28 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tabatha Ricci | 100 of 315 | 31% | 59 of 257 | 17 of 25 | 24 of 33 | 95 of 306 | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 76 of 219 | 34% | 31 of 150 | 24 of 40 | 21 of 29 | 74 of 212 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabatha Ricci | 29 of 80 | 36% | 17 of 60 | 2 of 6 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Gillian Robertson | 12 of 48 | 25% | 4 of 34 | 4 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 12 of 46 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tabatha Ricci | 31 of 114 | 27% | 16 of 94 | 8 of 10 | 7 of 10 | 31 of 112 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 36 of 86 | 41% | 14 of 56 | 9 of 12 | 13 of 18 | 35 of 83 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tabatha Ricci | 40 of 121 | 33% | 26 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 9 | 37 of 117 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Gillian Robertson | 28 of 85 | 32% | 13 of 60 | 11 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 83 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her strength, pressure, and superior grappling. He believes Ricci is too strong for Gillian Robertson to take down and will be the better grappler on the ground. He has half a unit on Ricci at -121 and notes the line has yo-yoed. He sees Ricci as the next evolution of the wrestle-boxer style.
Big Brady leans towards Tabatha Ricci, believing she will be the better wrestler and striker. He notes Robertson's poor takedown defense (25%) and tendency to accept being on her back. He thinks Ricci's Judo background and BJJ black belt will allow her to get takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody picks Robertson, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes her grappling credentials but acknowledges her struggles against good wrestlers. He thinks the plus money is worth it and expects a close fight.
Connor picks Ricci because she is strong, an excellent grappler, and increasingly comfortable on the feet. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Connor also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Daniel Levi picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her ability to keep the fight standing or wrestle in reverse. He notes Robertson's submission threat but thinks Ricci's jiu-jitsu and physicality can neutralize it. He believes Ricci has more paths to victory and can survive on the ground if needed.
The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision. He believes Ricci is a superior grappler and wrestler who will get top position and control Robertson. He notes Robertson's tendency to play off her back and thinks Ricci will be too privy to her submission attempts. He expects Ricci to dominate the fight with top control and win a decision.
Paul picks Ricci, citing her striking advantage and top control. He notes her training with Mackenzie Dern and thinks she can avoid Robertson's submissions. He mentions he already bet Ricci at -125.
The Guru picks Gillian Robertson over the majority pick Tabatha Ricci. He believes Robertson's length and reach advantage will allow her to lead the dance, and she does more damage on the ground with ground and pound. He thinks both are grapplers but Robertson's aggression and experience will win her a split decision based on damage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Ricci. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Zane also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 0 | 26 of 39 | 66% | 46 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 6:23 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 25 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 20 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 0 | 13 of 14 | 92% | 26 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillian Robertson | 26 of 39 | 66% | 20 of 29 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 16 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 33 | 36% | 10 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 25 | 52% | 8 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 12 of 29 | 41% | 10 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gillian Robertson | 13 of 14 | 92% | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 13 |
| Piera Rodríguez | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.
Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.
Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.
Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.
Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.
Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.
The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.
Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.
Expert Picks (4)
Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.
Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.
This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.
The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.
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