vs
+135 -150
UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025 · Women's Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 39
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Yana Santos
4.41 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
3.12 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.78 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
51.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Miesha Tate
2.62 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.97 TD Avg
30.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Yana Santos
Moneyline
Caesars +135
KO/TKO
BetWay +1200
Submission
DraftKings +2500
Decision
BetRivers +175
Miesha Tate
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1050
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
FanDuel +150
Yana Santos - Fight History
WIN vs Macy Chiasson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Macy Chiasson 0 54 of 118 45% 91 of 158 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:43
Yana Santos 0 65 of 124 52% 115 of 176 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Macy Chiasson 0 14 of 33 42% 24 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Yana Santos 0 31 of 50 62% 40 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Macy Chiasson 0 25 of 50 50% 32 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Yana Santos 0 31 of 52 59% 55 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Macy Chiasson 0 15 of 35 42% 35 of 57 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:40
Yana Santos 0 3 of 22 13% 20 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Macy Chiasson 54 of 118 45% 25 of 76 25 of 35 4 of 7 24 of 81 25 of 29 5 of 8
Yana Santos 65 of 124 52% 29 of 74 31 of 43 5 of 7 29 of 73 36 of 51 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Macy Chiasson 14 of 33 42% 5 of 19 7 of 11 2 of 3 8 of 26 6 of 7 0 of 0
Yana Santos 31 of 50 62% 10 of 25 20 of 22 1 of 3 10 of 25 21 of 25 0 of 0
2 Macy Chiasson 25 of 50 50% 9 of 31 14 of 16 2 of 3 10 of 34 15 of 16 0 of 0
Yana Santos 31 of 52 59% 19 of 36 9 of 13 3 of 3 16 of 28 15 of 24 0 of 0
3 Macy Chiasson 15 of 35 42% 11 of 26 4 of 8 0 of 1 6 of 21 4 of 6 5 of 8
Yana Santos 3 of 22 13% 0 of 13 2 of 8 1 of 1 3 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo likes Yana Santos as a plus-185 underdog. He thinks Macy Chiasson has abandoned her Muay Thai style for grappling, which plays into Yana's strengths as a good striker with good footwork and range management. He notes that in Las Vegas, takedowns don't score well, so empty takedowns won't help Macy. He also mentions a potential plus-3.5 spread bet.

Plus 185 underdog; considering plus 3.5 spread bet.
"I think Jana is a phenomenal underdog here. Plus 185. I think she's a great underdog here... I am going to lean Giannis Santos here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

Big Brady is confident in Macy Chiasson, noting that Yana Santos is very bad on the bottom and has been knocked out multiple times. He believes Chiasson can get takedowns and finish the fight with ground and pound or a submission. He acknowledges that Chiasson struggled against Ketlen Vieira, but attributes that to Vieira's elite takedown defense. He predicts a third-round submission for Chiasson.

Macy Chiasson by third round submission.
"I think Macy wins here. I think she gets on top. I think she gets takedowns and I think she finds a finish. I think she finishes Jana Santos. I'll say third round submission for Macy Chazison in this fight."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yana Santos

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Santos because Chiasson's offensive piling up is a thin veneer that collapses when things go wrong. He expects Chiasson to crash into the clinch and get bullied on the fence, as she does when she is not the stronger fighter. He also notes that Santos is a neutralizer who can break through Chiasson's game.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170
"I'll take Santos too."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Yana Santos

Chiasson missed weight again, and the host sees this as an opportunity for Santos to take advantage with her striking advantage and good takedown defense, running away with the fight on the scorecards.

"I think that this is a perfect opportunity for Santos to take advantage of that by really putting on Chiasson with her striking advantage, utilizing her good takedown defense early, and then running away with this matchup and winning it …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Macy Chiasson

The MMA Guru picks Macy Chiasson, citing her physicality and size advantage. He notes that Yana Santos lacks a logical path to victory and Chiasson's pressure and clinch work should be enough. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going with Macy Chiasson. I'm looking at the Irene Aldana fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 3, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Yana Santos

Zane picks Santos because Chiasson's success depends on being bigger and stronger than her opponent, and when she is not, she looks weak and collapses. He notes that Santos is big and awkward, and can keep the fight at her range or be competitive inside physically. He also points out that Santos has beaten Ketlen Vieira and Misha Tate, while Chiasson lost to Vieira and would likely lose to Tate.

Chiasson opened at -300, currently -200; Santos opened at +250, currently +170
"I got to pick Santos here."
WIN vs Miesha Tate
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Santos 0 66 of 117 56% 87 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 115 34% 108 of 204 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Santos 0 31 of 61 50% 43 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Miesha Tate 0 22 of 55 40% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Yana Santos 0 31 of 44 70% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 43 30% 18 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Yana Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 5 of 17 29% 57 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Santos 66 of 117 56% 37 of 87 15 of 16 14 of 14 47 of 96 19 of 21 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 115 34% 25 of 88 8 of 17 7 of 10 29 of 100 8 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Santos 31 of 61 50% 14 of 44 9 of 9 8 of 8 19 of 47 12 of 14 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 22 of 55 40% 14 of 43 4 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Santos 31 of 44 70% 20 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 5 24 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 43 30% 6 of 28 4 of 10 3 of 5 7 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Yana Santos 4 of 12 33% 3 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available
"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission
"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Santos 1 94 of 135 69% 135 of 186 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:00
Chelsea Chandler 0 56 of 124 45% 73 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Santos 0 33 of 44 75% 38 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Chelsea Chandler 0 14 of 40 35% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Yana Santos 1 33 of 48 68% 39 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Chelsea Chandler 0 17 of 34 50% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Yana Santos 0 28 of 43 65% 58 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Chelsea Chandler 0 25 of 50 50% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Santos 94 of 135 69% 30 of 58 38 of 50 26 of 27 58 of 94 36 of 41 0 of 0
Chelsea Chandler 56 of 124 45% 31 of 90 25 of 34 0 of 0 29 of 88 27 of 36 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Santos 33 of 44 75% 10 of 19 11 of 12 12 of 13 24 of 35 9 of 9 0 of 0
Chelsea Chandler 14 of 40 35% 9 of 31 5 of 9 0 of 0 8 of 30 6 of 10 0 of 0
2 Yana Santos 33 of 48 68% 12 of 21 12 of 18 9 of 9 21 of 34 12 of 14 0 of 0
Chelsea Chandler 17 of 34 50% 10 of 27 7 of 7 0 of 0 12 of 28 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Yana Santos 28 of 43 65% 8 of 18 15 of 20 5 of 5 13 of 25 15 of 18 0 of 0
Chelsea Chandler 25 of 50 50% 12 of 32 13 of 18 0 of 0 9 of 30 16 of 20 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chelsea Chandler (141: Missed Weight) vs. Yana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-142), Chandler (+120)

Round 1
Action heads back to the women’s bantamweight division, where Santos (14-8, 4-5 UFC) collides with an overweight Chandler (6-2, 2-1 UFC). The 30-year-old Chandler tipped the scales at 141 pounds—a whopping five pounds over the bantamweight limit. Herb Dean handles the officiating duties. Santos takes the center of the cage against the southpaw. She lands a kick across both legs. Side kick to the lead leg from Santos. She follows punches with another leg kick. Definite difference in class of fighter so far. Chandler steps forward punches and looks to clinch. Santos shrugs it off. Leg kick from Santos, then another. Chandler counters with a straight left. Body kick from Santos. Chandler bobs and weaves on the outside, as the action stalls. Santos steps into a push kick to the face, then crashes into the clinch. Chandler turns her into the fence. Santos breaks free and cuts loose with punches. Ninety seconds left. Chandler pumps out a range-finding jab. Santos delivers a nice kick to the body. Pace slows again. Another body kick from Santos. Chandler flurries, connects with a left and clinches along the cage. She goes nowhere and separates. Body kick from Santos, followed by a spinning back kick upstairs. She closes with an inside low kick.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
Chandler charges out to the center of the cage and eats a pair of punches. Santos floors her with a right hand, then hammers the legs with kicks with Chandler in the butt scoot position. Dean restarts them standing. Head kick from Santos, followed by a one-two and another push kick to the face. Chandler absorbs another leg kick. Santos steps into an inside leg kick, resets in open space and scores with a leg kick. Too much speed and skill for Chandler, who simply cannot plug all the holes in her game. She bullies her way into the clinch. Santos breaks free. No change to the narrative midway through the round. Santos connects with a short-range knee to the body, engages Chandler in the clinch, lands an elbow and turns her to the fence. She lands an elbow off the break. Santos superior at range and in the clinch. Chandler looks to close the distance behind a straight left. No luck. Santos unleashes a kick to the head in open space, then another. Chandler scores with a right hand over the top. Santos lands an axe kick to the collar bone. They finish the round in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 3
Santos circles on the outside to start Round 3. Leg kick from Santos. Chandler again crashes into the clinch along the fence and works knees to the legs and body. Santos avoids a trip and connects with an elbow for breaking free. Chandler walks Santos into a chopping right hand over the top. Santos answers with a body kick. Inside leg kick from Santos, who circles on the outside. Chandler initiates the clinch, throws a knee to the body and tries to bottle up Santos along the fence. Santos breaks free without much trouble. Chandler swarms with punches. Santos responds with a close-quarters knee to the gut, then another. Chandler seems to be out of ideas. Push kick to the face from Santos. She follows with a side kick to the chest. Just too many weapons. Ninety seconds on the clock. Chandler stalks forward and eats a left hand over the top. Once again, they find their way into the clinch. They trade knees. Santos escapes into open space. Chandler follows left hands into the clinch. Action stalls. Push kick to the face from Santos. Chandler hammers away to the body with both hands but runs out of time.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos (30-27 Santos)

The Official Result
Yana Santos def. Chelsea Chandler—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chelsea Chandler

Angelo picks Chelsea Chandler based on size and power, expecting her to slow down the pace, lean on Santos, and hold her against the cage. He admits Santos is the better technical fighter but is on a three-fight skid and might be phoning it in. He warns that confidence is very low and advises not to bet heavily on this pick.

Very low confidence; be careful betting
"I think Chelsea Chandler wins because she's big don't bet on it be very careful confidence very low"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Cody picks Santos but with low confidence, citing her poor takedown defense (42%) and Chandler's grappling. He thinks Santos can win rounds 2 and 3 if she keeps it standing, and suggests live betting if she loses the first round. He notes the fight likely goes to decision and judges may favor activity.

Fight goes to decision (over 2.5 rounds)
"I'm leaning towards judges looking at activity work rate who's actually trying to finish and who's actually trying to fight so give me Jana things could change with a bad way cut then you'd feel better about Jana"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Santos has a significant experience advantage and is better in the clinch, where the fight will likely be won. Chandler is raw on the feet and open to counters. Santos should land better damage and win a split decision, though Chandler's physical strength could cause problems.

"I think that Santos will have an advantage there and Chandler could have some success of her own being a pretty physically strong woman herself but I think the experence of Santos and the technical advantages of Santos will end …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Paul leans slightly to Santos due to her volume striking, but acknowledges low confidence. He expects a split decision and notes Chandler's grappling could control early rounds. He suggests a split decision prop as a good play.

Split decision (plus 300)
"I'll lean ever so slightly to the volume on Santos but the the confidence and actually laying a hammer on this is definitely not there for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chelsea Chandler

The MMA Guru picks Chelsea Chandler, citing her commitment to the game and size/strength advantage over Yana Santos. He does not provide detailed technical breakdown but expresses confidence in Chandler's physical attributes.

"I'll go Chelsea Chandler I think um yeah she's just more committed to the game and she's bigger and stronger"
LOSS vs Karol Rosa
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Karol Rosa 0 95 of 156 60% 151 of 213 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:53
Yana Santos 0 66 of 130 50% 117 of 181 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Karol Rosa 0 33 of 54 61% 68 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Yana Santos 0 12 of 26 46% 35 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Karol Rosa 0 29 of 44 65% 48 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:34
Yana Santos 0 20 of 44 45% 42 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Karol Rosa 0 33 of 58 56% 35 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Yana Santos 0 34 of 60 56% 40 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Karol Rosa 95 of 156 60% 20 of 69 42 of 47 33 of 40 63 of 113 32 of 43 0 of 0
Yana Santos 66 of 130 50% 38 of 95 18 of 21 10 of 14 48 of 106 12 of 14 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Karol Rosa 33 of 54 61% 11 of 31 17 of 18 5 of 5 14 of 27 19 of 27 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 26 46% 7 of 20 4 of 4 1 of 2 8 of 22 4 of 4 0 of 0
2 Karol Rosa 29 of 44 65% 5 of 19 13 of 13 11 of 12 18 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
Yana Santos 20 of 44 45% 14 of 36 5 of 6 1 of 2 16 of 38 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Karol Rosa 33 of 58 56% 4 of 19 12 of 16 17 of 23 31 of 54 2 of 4 0 of 0
Yana Santos 34 of 60 56% 17 of 39 9 of 11 8 of 10 24 of 46 4 of 4 6 of 10
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Karol Rosa vs. Yana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rosa (-175), Santos (+150)

Round 1
A few weeks ago, Santos (14-7, 1 NC; 4-4 UFC) was expecting to encounter Macy Chiasson at bantamweight in what would have been an important fight given the post-Amanda Nunes landscape. Instead, she moves up in weight to the practically empty featherweight category to throw down with Rosa (16-5, 5-2 UFC). In theory, this could be a no. 1 contender fight if the promotion keeps the women’s 145-pound category together, but that remains to be seen. It will go down under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, and it kicks off with a cordial fist bump. Rosa engages first and throws hands, and Santos meets her with a few powerful punches right back. Santos strides forward to get a few knees up the middle, and Rosa replies with a sharp elbow when they are clinched. The two frantically race at one another, and Rosa grips the clinch and gets elbows on the break. Santos punches her way in, and she shells up when Rosa counters with a left and a right. The two both swing hard, and this results in a tie-up that Santos uses to push the Brazilian to the wall. Santos clings to her foe, kneeing her a few times from either side. Santos grinds, and Rosa palms her on the ear a few times. Santos chips away with short knees to the midsection, staying busy in the position while keeping Rosa stuck with her back at the wall. Santos sneaks an elbow over the top and stays closely pressed to her adversary, as her strike totals add up in this clinch position. Santos peppers Rosa with short left hands as she hangs on, and another elbow gets over the top before Rosa explodes to turn her around. Rosa gives her one single knee back before Santos tries to turn her about, and they split up. Rosa walks Santos down, and she blocks a body kick and bounces back. Santos throws punches and a body kick, and Rosa takes a subsequent front kick to the body. Rosa counters a leg kick with an overhand right, and she chases Santos around until they bump heads together. They end up clinching in the middle of the cage, and Santos shoves her to the fencing and starts up her knee attack again. Santos elects to separate, and Rosa connects with an overhand right that makes Santos think twice about closing in. Santos tosses out a low kick, and she spins with a back kick to the body. They both try to elbow each other from up close, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Santos
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Santos

Round 2
The second round begins as Rosa moves to the center of the cage and starts chasing Santos around again. Santos ducks back from a big one-two, and Rosa lands a solid body shot before Santos can grab hold of her and initiate the clinch. Rosa backs off to find a better angle of approach, and she goes back in and is quickly turned around by the Russian. Santos throws knees to any target, squeezing Rosa tight against the fence before popping her with an elbow. Santos backs away, and crashes forward to clinch back up. Santos sneaks over another elbow and decides to break, and Rosa starts walking her down throwing punches. They trade blows, and Rosa ends with a good right hand. They tie up and trade knees in the Thai clinch, and Santos circles away to keep moving. Santos whiffs on an axe kick, and they crash together for a brief clinch until they push off. Rosa stalks down her opponent, and she lands a leg kick only to get countered with an overhand right. Rosa marches forward with impunity, and she knees Santos on the way in. The two ladies engage in single strike excursions, where they dart in, land something, and get out. They take turns in these kinds of engagements, and Rosa fires off a head kick and lets Santos brush past her. Santos kicks the body with a side kick, and she keeps strafing laterally. Rosa lands a right hand and has her head kick blocked, and she swats away a step-in elbow so she can close the distance. Santos welcomes this and turns her around without batting an eye, and the close round wraps with the two stuck together.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa

Round 3
The last round has been reached, and Rosa is the immediate aggressor as she throws big punches. Santos snatches her up and pulls her into the clinch game, but Rosa pushes her away to return to kickboxing range. Santos keeps moving, and she kicks the body a few times as Rosa walks towards her. Santos comes in to clinch, and she backs out with an elbow that grazes off the cheek. Rosa plants the ball of her foot on Santos’ midsection, and she fires off a one-two that gets Santos’ attention. They trade heavy leg kicks, and the pocket collapses as they both rush at the other to launch knees. Rosa pushes off, and she counters a body kick with a thudding right hand. Santos hops back and gathers her thoughts, and she kicks low again. They swipe at one another with big kicks, and Rosa lumps her foe up with a right hand and a low kick that does not give off a slapping sound. Rosa plods onward, beating Santos to the punch a few times in brief skirmishes, and she lands a right hand on the nose to make Santos blink it out. Rose aims a right to the body, and she checks a leg kick in response. Santos tries to keep Rosa away with a front kick, and Rosa walks through it and parries a body kick that follows. Rosa splits the guard with a one-two, and the Brazilian is the aggressor and swinging with heavier blows. Santos peppers the lead leg with a kick, and Rosa delivers one much heavier. Rosa ties her up to land one single elbow, and she pushes off to gain space and not get trapped. Rosa lumbers towards her opponent constantly, throwing punches and the occasional kick, and Santos is stuck looking for counters. A high kick from Rosa grazes off the top of the head, and she plants a one-two on the chin. Rosa trips Santos out with 15 seconds left in the fight, and she jams down elbows to the face and punches to the side to conclude the fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rosa (29-28 Rosa)

The Official Result
Karol Rosa def. Yana Santos via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Angelo picks Karol Rosa, expecting her volume and takedown threats to disrupt Yana Santos's rhythm. He notes Yana is the better technical striker but Rosa's busy output and wrestling will be key. He predicts a decision win for Rosa, similar to her win over Lina Lansberg but without a knockdown. He likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (potential bet)
"I think it's a pretty straightforward spot for Carol right I think Jana's gonna be the better striker in technique but Carol's gonna be too busy"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Big Brady picks Karol Rosa to win by decision. He notes Yana Santos has looked atrocious lately, with poor takedown defense (45%) and losses to Holly Holm and Irene Aldana. He believes Rosa's black belt in BJJ and superior striking volume will allow her to control the fight on the mat and on the feet. He acknowledges the fight could get greasy but is confident Rosa has her covered everywhere.

"I'm gonna pick Carol HOSA to win this fight I'll say she wins this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Cody likes Rosa's volume and wrestling advantage. He notes Santos has poor takedown defense and get-up game, as seen in fights against Vieira and Holm. Rosa can wrestle and has good durability. Cody thinks Rosa will press Santos against the cage, take her down, and grind out a decision. He also notes Rosa's ability to put up high strike numbers.

"calrose has the favorite yeah I'm gonna have to back that"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Daniel leans Rosa but is concerned about her recent drop in volume and defensive grappling holes. He notes Rosa's past high-volume performances and toughness, but worries that Yana could control her against the fence and win close rounds. He expects Rosa to win but sees a path for Yana via grinding decisions, making the -150 price unappealing. He calls it a pass at these odds.

"I like hosted a win but I don't like it enough at these odds"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

Paul picks Rosa, citing her significant strike volume (125 vs Kohaya, 171 vs Procopio) compared to Santos' low volume. He notes Rosa's wrestling advantage and Santos' recent losses. Paul thinks Rosa by decision is likely, but he may not bet it due to the price.

Rosa by decision at -115
"I can understand why she's a minus 170 favorite am I going to get to that from a betting perspective you know me probably not"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Karol Rosa

The Guru picks Karol Rosa, calling her technically sound and noting her win over Joseline Edwards. He doesn't see her being out-grappled by Yana Santos. However, he expresses frustration with women's MMA, calling it a coin flip and saying 'whatever happens happens,' indicating low confidence.

"I'm gonna go with Carol Rosa here I actually think she's quite technically sound as a fighter"
LOSS vs Holly Holm
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Holly Holm 0 32 of 63 50% 105 of 163 4 of 6 66% 0 0 9:49
Yana Santos 0 21 of 46 45% 120 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Holly Holm 0 7 of 16 43% 24 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:41
Yana Santos 0 12 of 25 48% 50 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:19
2 Holly Holm 0 16 of 33 48% 43 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Yana Santos 0 7 of 12 58% 38 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Holly Holm 0 9 of 14 64% 38 of 60 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:59
Yana Santos 0 2 of 9 22% 32 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Holly Holm 32 of 63 50% 23 of 49 8 of 12 1 of 2 14 of 33 4 of 5 14 of 25
Yana Santos 21 of 46 45% 3 of 22 8 of 9 10 of 15 15 of 37 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Holly Holm 7 of 16 43% 5 of 12 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
Yana Santos 12 of 25 48% 2 of 13 3 of 4 7 of 8 9 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Holly Holm 16 of 33 48% 12 of 27 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 11 0 of 1 12 of 21
Yana Santos 7 of 12 58% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 5 6 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Holly Holm 9 of 14 64% 6 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 4
Yana Santos 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Angelo is very confident in Holm, calling her one of his two most confident picks on the card. He notes that Holm is a technical striker with great footwork and that her age (41) matters less because she doesn't rely on speed or take much damage. He points out that Santos lacks power, which plays into Holm's style, and that Santos is coming off a two-year layoff after having a baby. He believes Holm should dominate and that the line should be wider, but he is wary of betting women's MMA due to past upsets.

"Holly Holm is my most confident pick on this entire card."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Big Brady picks Holly Holm but with low confidence, citing red flags on both sides. He notes Holm's age (41) and decline in her last fight against Ketlen Vieira, as well as a layoff. On Santos' side, she just had a baby and got married, which Brady views as potential distractions. He expects Holm to win by holding Santos against the cage for three rounds in a boring decision, but calls the fight a 'big pass' for betting.

Holm by decision
"holms gonna go out there and hold Santa's against the cage for three rounds decision to win there you go but I would not be betting on this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Cody picks Holly Holm but is hesitant due to her age and potential decline. He notes Holm has shifted to a wrestling-heavy game plan and is effective in the clinch. He believes Holm should win but doesn't like the -250 moneyline, preferring Holm by decision at -115. He acknowledges the Pat Mayo theory of betting women's underdogs but still leans Holm. He mentions Holm's durability and Santos coming off a KO loss.

Holly Holm by decision; over 2.5 rounds
"I would personally bet Holly Holm by decision because I don't want to bet Hollywood minus 250 straight up"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Connor picks Holm because Santos is fragile and tends to revert to clinching when pressured, which plays into Holm's strength. He notes Holm's striking has slowed but she remains strong in the clinch and hard to hurt. He expects Holm to hold Santos on the fence for three rounds and win a decision.

Mentions odds: Holm opened -200, currently -238; Santos opened +150, currently +193. Notes line is getting wider.
"I got to just pick Holly home to hold her on the fence for three rounds and for Yana Konitsuka to not be able to make anything that makes it look like she's won the fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Jacob also picks Holm, agreeing she is the better fighter everywhere. He notes that Holm is not a finisher and the fight likely goes to decision, which could be risky with Texas judges. He mentions that Santos might be aggressive and that the optics could favor her if she pressures, but he thinks Holm should dominate. He says he found plus money on Holm and has a bet on her, but does not specify the exact prop.

Found plus money on Holly Holm (specific prop not stated)
"I found plus money for Holly Holm that I absolutely love."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The host expects another veteran performance from Holly Holm, believing she will grind against Yana Santos against the cage, utilize her superior strength and power, drag the fight to the ground, and do good work from top position. He notes that Santos is coming off a layoff after having a baby, which adds uncertainty. He thinks Holm's physical fitness and longevity are exceptional for her age, and that strength advantage will be key. He predicts Holm wins by decision.

"I think we're in store for another veteran performance here from Holly Holm"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Holly Holm

The Guru picks Holm, citing her recent wins over Aldana and Pennington, and notes that Santos hasn't fought since 2021 and had a child. He expects Holm to use her athleticism and cage control to win a decision, though he admits it's a sad prediction.

"probably just Holly Holm holding her against a cage... I'm gonna go Holly home pushing her against a cage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Holly Holm

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Holm's clinch strength hasn't decayed and Santos lacks confidence to avoid a Holm fight. He doubts Santos can win unless she proves she can overcome Holm's physicality. He sees it as a fight where Holm's strength and clinch work will be decisive.

Mentions odds: Holm -238, Santos +193. Notes the line is getting wider.
"You got to pick home Santos. She really would have to prove that she can win a fight like this."
Miesha Tate - Fight History
LOSS vs Yana Santos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yana Santos 0 66 of 117 56% 87 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 115 34% 108 of 204 1 of 7 14% 0 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yana Santos 0 31 of 61 50% 43 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Miesha Tate 0 22 of 55 40% 33 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Yana Santos 0 31 of 44 70% 39 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 43 30% 18 of 48 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
3 Yana Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 5 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 5 of 17 29% 57 of 84 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yana Santos 66 of 117 56% 37 of 87 15 of 16 14 of 14 47 of 96 19 of 21 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 115 34% 25 of 88 8 of 17 7 of 10 29 of 100 8 of 10 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yana Santos 31 of 61 50% 14 of 44 9 of 9 8 of 8 19 of 47 12 of 14 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 22 of 55 40% 14 of 43 4 of 7 4 of 5 20 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Yana Santos 31 of 44 70% 20 of 33 6 of 6 5 of 5 24 of 37 7 of 7 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 43 30% 6 of 28 4 of 10 3 of 5 7 of 36 6 of 7 0 of 0
3 Yana Santos 4 of 12 33% 3 of 10 0 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 5 of 17 29% 5 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available
"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission
"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."
WIN vs Julia Avila
Submission (face crank) R3 1:15 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 37 86% 127 of 152 4 of 5 80% 1 0 10:55
Julia Avila 0 3 of 11 27% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 50 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:54
Julia Avila 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 16 of 18 88% 69 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:50
Julia Avila 0 2 of 7 28% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Miesha Tate 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:11
Julia Avila 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 32 of 37 86% 31 of 35 1 of 1 0 of 1 5 of 8 0 of 0 27 of 29
Julia Avila 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 16 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 14 of 14
Julia Avila 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 16 of 18 88% 15 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 15
Julia Avila 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Miesha Tate 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julia Avila 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody takes Tate as an underdog. He argues that Tate has fought much higher competition and even in losses she's competitive. He notes Avila's wins are over low-level opponents and she has poor takedown defense. He thinks Tate's experience and wrestling will be the difference, and that Avila's layoff and knee injury are concerns. He believes Tate's back class carries her.

"I will take that plus money on Misha Tate and think the back class carries are through here to get it done one last time"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lucrative James leans towards Miesha Tate, citing intangibles such as Julia Avila's layoff after having a baby (possibly via C-section) and her previous gym issues. He believes Tate's grappling can neutralize Avila's striking, and that Avila's path to victory is on the feet. He suggests attacking props like Tate by decision rather than the moneyline.

Tate by decision
"I think Misha Tate has got some of the narrative and some of the intangibles going on on this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate is a former champion with a strong wrestling base, and she should be able to take Avila down and grind out a win. Avila is aggressive but lacks technical striking and has shown takedown defense issues. Both fighters are returning from long layoffs, but Tate's wrestling advantage and underdog odds make her a good value pick. The fight is expected to get easier for Tate in rounds two and three.

plus 125 underdog
"I think that she's a damn good Underdog spot on this card for two fighters that haven't really been active uh as of late"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Julia Avila

Paul sides with Avila, citing her strength and striking. He thinks Tate's motivation is questionable and that this could be a retirement fight. He notes Avila is the better striker and stronger, but acknowledges Tate's higher level of competition. He has a creeping suspicion that both fighters might retire after this.

"I'm going to side with Avala here I I have a creeping suspicion that this could be like if Avala wins both Fighters get the uh get the microphone at the end and there's some gloves down in the cage …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate as an underdog, noting her competitive fights against top competition like Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. He believes Julia Avila's inactivity and unimpressive last performance make Tate a live dog. He expects Tate to win by decision.

underdog, decision win
"I'm taking the underdog of Miesha Tate... she went to a pretty close fight with Ketlen Vieira... I'm going to go Miesha Tate as an underdog... win by decision."
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 102 of 184 55% 128 of 211 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:18
Miesha Tate 0 85 of 164 51% 121 of 201 0 of 7 0% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 26 of 48 54% 35 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 47 53% 38 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:04
2 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 66 57% 53 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:41
Miesha Tate 0 32 of 55 58% 46 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
3 Lauren Murphy 0 38 of 70 54% 40 of 72 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Miesha Tate 0 28 of 62 45% 37 of 72 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 102 of 184 55% 77 of 154 24 of 29 1 of 1 68 of 142 31 of 39 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 85 of 164 51% 61 of 122 18 of 34 6 of 8 67 of 138 18 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 26 of 48 54% 17 of 37 9 of 11 0 of 0 15 of 33 11 of 15 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 25 of 47 53% 12 of 26 10 of 18 3 of 3 16 of 34 9 of 13 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 38 of 66 57% 31 of 57 6 of 8 1 of 1 26 of 52 9 of 11 3 of 3
Miesha Tate 32 of 55 58% 27 of 44 4 of 9 1 of 2 25 of 46 7 of 9 0 of 0
3 Lauren Murphy 38 of 70 54% 29 of 60 9 of 10 0 of 0 27 of 57 11 of 13 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 28 of 62 45% 22 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 26 of 58 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Angelo picks Miesha Tate but is hesitant due to her flyweight debut. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be key, and that she can avoid being bullied by Murphy. He notes Murphy's losses came via grappling dominance, and assumes Tate will be strong at 125. He is unsure about betting.

unsure about betting
"so i'm gonna go with misha tate here anybody complaining that she's a little old she's 35 she's a younger fighter in this matchup so misha tate one big brother and i think she's gonna win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by decision. He notes that Tate is the more skilled fighter overall and can get takedowns to control the fight on the mat. He is not impressed by Murphy's wins and thinks the striking will be competitive. He says he would not bet Tate at -220 odds but picks her to win.

decision win; odds comment: minus 220 too high
"i'll take misha tate but minus 220. there's no way i would touch that but gimishita misha tate bye decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody picks Tate, citing her wrestling advantage, strength, and experience. He notes that Tate has been preparing for this fight for a long time and has been in great shape. He believes Tate's clinch work and takedowns will be too much for Murphy, and that Murphy's only path is to bully Tate, which he doubts she can do.

"i gotta go with cupcake tate i know that you haven't eight minus one five"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Daniel Levi leans Miesha Tate but expresses disinterest in the fight. He notes Tate is past her prime and coming off a loss, while Murphy is coming off a title fight loss and has health issues. He considers it a dog-or-pass situation and won't lay the -220 price on Tate.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i'll say it's dog or pass at the betting window you know with a price like that i'll lean misha tate"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Paul leans towards Murphy as an underdog, citing the uncertainty of Tate's weight cut to 125 and the fact that Murphy is a natural 125er. He notes that Murphy has decent striking and could potentially outwork Tate. However, he admits he is not confident and will wait until weigh-ins before betting.

"i think it's a very very clear dogger pass lauren murphy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Lauren Murphy, criticizing Murphy's lack of skill and Tate's experience. He believes Tate will win grappling exchanges and has slightly better striking. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Tate, with Tate winning the first two rounds clearly before slowing down due to weight cut.

"i'm gonna go with misha tate here lauren murphy has no idea what she's doing she's terrible at fighting"
LOSS vs Ketlen Vieira
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · Nov 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ketlen Vieira 0 113 of 263 42% 156 of 313 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 122 of 276 44% 145 of 302 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ketlen Vieira 0 14 of 38 36% 18 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 13 of 38 34% 16 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:52
2 Ketlen Vieira 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 21 of 54 38% 21 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 55 36% 28 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 57 42% 26 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
4 Ketlen Vieira 0 20 of 43 46% 50 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Miesha Tate 0 31 of 54 57% 44 of 70 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:34
5 Ketlen Vieira 0 30 of 73 41% 31 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 33 of 73 45% 38 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ketlen Vieira 113 of 263 42% 95 of 243 14 of 16 4 of 4 105 of 254 8 of 9 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 122 of 276 44% 52 of 175 60 of 88 10 of 13 110 of 260 12 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ketlen Vieira 14 of 38 36% 12 of 36 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 36 1 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 13 of 38 34% 8 of 24 4 of 11 1 of 3 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ketlen Vieira 29 of 54 53% 24 of 48 2 of 3 3 of 3 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 21 of 54 38% 14 of 42 6 of 10 1 of 2 21 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 55 36% 18 of 52 2 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 57 42% 4 of 28 15 of 24 5 of 5 21 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0
4 Ketlen Vieira 20 of 43 46% 16 of 39 4 of 4 0 of 0 15 of 38 5 of 5 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 31 of 54 57% 8 of 27 21 of 25 2 of 2 24 of 45 7 of 9 0 of 0
5 Ketlen Vieira 30 of 73 41% 25 of 68 5 of 5 0 of 0 28 of 71 2 of 2 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 33 of 73 45% 18 of 54 14 of 18 1 of 1 31 of 70 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ketlen Vieira vs. Miesha Tate

Round 1
At long last, we have reached the main event. It’s been a journey tonight. Vieira (11-2, 5-2 UFC) will try to get back in the win column against former champ Tate (19-7, 6-4 UFC). The cage commander for this final fight of the night is referee Jason Herzog, and both with an eye on a crack at the bantamweight belt in the future touch hands to start things out. Vieira captures the center of the cage in the early going, but they keep a very safe range from the other to not land punches or kicks. They take turns following the other, until Vieira sits down with a right hand to smack Tate in the face. Tate tries to jab the body a few times, and Vieira is there to pop her with a left hand over the top. Tate swings, misses, and gets countered by the Brazilian. Vieira sticks out a crisp jab, and her range is giving Tate pause at how to get in on her. When Tate jumps forward into a one-two, Vieira swats it out of the way and dances back when Tate aims a kick at her leg. Tate appears jittery as she hops back and forth to try to get in on Vieira, throwing a single front kick to the body. Vieira tags Tate with a right hand when Tate closes in on her, and the former champ lands a pair of successful punches. Caught celebrating her work a little too long, Vieira counters her with heavier blows before Tate can escape. The distance between the two is vast, and Tate resorts to staggering and stutter-stepping her way in. Tate chases Vieira down and slugs her in the face with a combination, and when Vieira tries to answer her with strikes of her own, Tate ties her up and presses her into the wall. Although Vieira separates, Tate knees her once to the body. Tate ducks a punch combination to push Vieira back into the wire, and like before, Vieira is able to separate without issue. From a distance, Vieira shoots in for a takedown, and Tate is able to stop it from succeeding. They end the round in an awkward position with Tate’s hand on her foe’s backside.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 2
A tense exchange begins the second round, and Vieira lands cleanly on Tate’s left eye, forcing some reddening and immediate swelling. Tate pays it no mind as she kicks Vieira in the head, but it is only a glancing blow as the Brazilian rolls with it. Tate keeps reaching out to try to get in on her opponent, and she eats a Vieira punch so that she can score a solid right hand. The former champ plants the fall of her foot on Vieira’s torso, interrupting Vieira from landing a strike. Tate winds up with a stiff right hand, nailing Vieira and forcing her to reel. In response, Vieira scores a left hand down the pipe. Vieira chops at the leg, and they both start trading heavy leather in front of one another. Tate lands, and Vieira is stuck countering instead of leading the exchanges. This allows Tate to land on her first before replying. Tate connects with a big kick to Vieira’s face, and she sees that it has done some damage as she follows it with a chain of punches. Tate strings together a few one-twos, and Vieira shakes it off and lands her own thudding left hook on the side of Tate’s head. The woman formerly known as “Takedown” attempts one in the open cage, and Vieira stuffs it without issue. She tries again, and Vieira stops that one as well and separates. Tate walks Vieira down with kicks and punches, while not appearing too worried about the single counters that come back at her. Tate scores with a pair of clean right hands, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 3
Tate comes out firing to start off the second round, surprising the Brazilian early with a short blitz of blows. Backing away before the counters follow suit, Tate changes things up with an inside leg kick and then one on the outside. Vieira leans into a left hand, and after a lull in the action, Tate reaches out with a left hand to stop a punch and she pokes Vieira square in the eyeball. Herzog acknowledges this and brings in the doctor, and after a minute to clear things out, Vieira is ready to go again. Tate wants to capitalize on this accident by chasing Vieira down with jabs and follow-up right hands. Tate keeps a low stance, and she punches the body while Vieira is sitting firmly on counters. Tate punches, slips the response and jabs out again. Tate gives chase, and a big right hand gets caught under Vieira’s armpit. Tate lands a right, tries to clinch up and eats a short right hand for her effort. Tate goes up high with a kick, and when it collides off of Vieira’s guard, Vieira aims a right hand down the middle. Tate advances, and Vieira swings a pair of looping hooks to keep Tate honest. The former champ lands a single strike, while Vieira’s prepared counter of an uppercut and a right hand knocks Tate back. The Brazilian lands cleanly in another exchange, forcing Tate to change levels and pursue a takedown. Vieira defends it well and separates without going down to her knees. When Vieira gets up, Tate meets her outstretched leg with a kick, and Vieira lances her with a right hand in a sharp retort. Tate rushes forward to clinch her up to end the round, and she holds on to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Tate
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira

Round 4
They meet and touch gloves in the center of the cage to initiate the championship rounds. Tate starts off aggressively, chasing her opponent down and landing punches. Tate clubs her opponent with a crisp right hand, and she escapes when Vieira sets up a counter. The Brazilian lands a few punches from a distance, and they trade heavily suddenly. Tate mixes things up with a takedown attempt, and she finally hits it and gets Vieira down. As “Fenomeno” stands up, Tate takes her back and looks to hit a mat return by tripping Vieira down. Clinched up, Tate gives up on the takedown entry so that she can land short strikes to the body and head. Staying tight keeps Tate away from eating any counters, and she presses her full body weight on her opponent that had never before fought beyond the third round. Vieira grits her teeth and pushes Tate away, and she starts lunging out with jabs. Tate marks her up with a big punch, and Vieira blasts her right back. Both women wear it well, and Tate kicks Vieira in the body from afar. Tate lands a few punches before coming in to clinch, and she knees Vieira in the body once. Vieira gives several punches back to the midsection, until Tate has had enough of that and pushes away. A Tate leg kick is met with a straight left hand, and Vieira catches Tate coming in with a string of punches. Vieira loads up on a right hand, and she elbows Tate when Tate tries to clinch. Vieira welcomes the clinch again in the open cage, as she repeatedly punches Tate in the side as she did before. Tate holds on tight with a clinch, and she releases a knee to the head. Another knee scores for the former champ, who ends the round in the Thai clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tate

Round 5
The bantamweights touch hands and then come in to hug to commence the last round. Vieira lets her hands go when they start fighting, and she connects cleanly with power punches as Tate looks to be safe. They come together in a clinch, and Tate works the body before Vieira separates. Vieira tags her opponent with an uppercut and a left hand, and Tate is forced to back off and gather her thoughts. When she does, the ex-champ kicks the body and then tries to get a knee off to the chest. Tate kicks the body, but Vieira is there to bang with her as she starts throwing hard. As Tate backs off, Vieira leans on a long jab, and she busts Tate’s nose open with a powerful knee and a few punches up top. Tate misses on one-twos as Vieira appears to be the fresher, more composed woman right now. Tate springs back and forth, jabbing out but not throwing nearly as much as she did before the nose got cracked. Tate sneaks a right hand over the top, but Vieira throws three back at her that are much heavier. They trade single jabs, and Tate steps forward into a one-two that knocks Vieira back. Vieira returns fire with jabs that continue to pound into Tate’s bloodied nose, and the former champion’s face has transformed into a crimson mask. Hardly recognizable, Tate does not care, as she continues to swing punches while Vieira is tight and crisp with her boxing. The jabs have shut Tate’s left eye as well as making her nose bleed furiously, and Tate marches on and kicks her in the side. Tate continues to pour it on as Vieira stays on her bicycle, successfully scoring with laser-accurate strikes that barely register for Tate. The fight comes to an end after 25 minutes of action, and it could be anyone’s guess who wins this fight based on how close most of the rounds were. UFC Fight Night 198, and a consecutive weekend stretch of 10 UFC cards, comes to an end with an event that brought 10 decisions in 11 bouts. We all could use a week off, and we will have it. When the UFC returns in December, it will be on ESPN for U.S. audiences with a barnburner of a main event between Rob Font and Jose Aldo. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Vieira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (48-47 Tate)

The Official Result
Ketlen Vieira def. Miesha Tate via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Angelo picks Ketlen Vieira, citing her power, size, and solid takedown defense (92%). He notes Miesha Tate's striking is poor and she relies on takedowns, but Vieira has stuffed takedowns from Olympic wrestler Sarah McMahon. He expects Vieira to win by decision or late stoppage, and placed a moneyline bet at even money (+100). He also mentions live betting opportunities.

Moneyline bet at +100, 1 unit; DraftKings price 7900; monkey knife fight more/more; mentions live betting if Tate has takedown success early
"caitlyn is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate to win by late finish (4th or 5th round). He notes that Ketlen Vieira has never fought five rounds and tends to slow down in the third round, as seen in fights against Eubanks and Kanutsukai. He believes Tate's improved striking and wrestling will allow her to survive early and take over as Vieira fades. He sees a late stoppage as very live.

win by TKO or submission, fourth or fifth round
"I'm gonna take misha tate to win give me like a fourth or fifth round late late round uh later on stoppage here for tate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody believes Miesha Tate is undervalued as a slight underdog. He points to Tate's championship pedigree, improved striking, and excellent conditioning for a five-round fight. He highlights Ketlen Vieira's history of gassing in the third round of her fights, including against Yana Kunitskaya where she was out-struck 44-7. Cody argues that Tate's wrestling is good enough to stuff takedowns and that if the fight stays standing, Tate has the advantage. He expects Tate to take over in rounds four and five as Vieira fades.

"what am i missing here paul like what i don't under 100 and understand why uh it's misha tate's slight underdog status versus ket and vieira"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Ketlen Vieira

Daniel Levi picks Ketlen Vieira despite her history of mental lapses and cardio issues. He notes that Vieira has superior skills across the board, including judo and power, but worries about her hitting a wall in later rounds. He believes Miesha Tate is stiff and slow, and that Vieira has no pressure on her in this fight. However, he acknowledges Tate's toughness and comeback ability, making this a hesitant pick.

"i think vieira's the better fighter honestly across the board... i'm gonna go with kellen vieira she's been very quiet very business business-minded approach this week"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Miesha Tate

Lock sees this as a classic early Vera vs late Tate fight. He thinks Vera gasses badly after round two, and Tate will take over with takedowns and top control. He notes Tate is hunting a finish and might get it late. Lock likes the under 4.5 rounds at +140 and Tate inside the distance at +375. He also sprinkled Tate round 4 and round 5 props.

Under 4.5 rounds +140, Miesha Tate inside the distance +375, Miesha Tate round 4 +2500, Miesha Tate round 5 +3000, Ketlen Vieira by KO +600
"I like the under four and a half at plus 140ish... I think those takedowns will come a little bit easier for tate as the fight wears on."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting that Vieira's gas tank is a major concern, especially in a five-round fight. He references the Yana Kunitskaya fight where Vieira missed weight and gassed hard at the end of round three. Paul believes that if Vieira cannot put Tate away early, Tate will take over late. He also mentions that this could be a good live bet opportunity if Vieira slows down in round three and Tate is still available at plus money.

Paul mentions this could be an even better live bet if we get into round three and Vieira starts slowing down; he notes Tate was plus money (-105) at DraftKings.
"i'm gonna have some money on misha tape straight up but i feel like potentially this could be an even better live bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate over Ketlen Vieira. He notes that Vieira slows down in later rounds, as seen against Yana Kunitskaya and Sijara Eubanks. He highlights Tate's championship experience, composure, and conditioning. He expects a stalemate on the feet early, but Tate to win scrambles and land ground and pound in the later rounds, finishing with a fourth-round TKO.

fourth round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going with misha tate as the favorite here i reckon she's got this one in the bag"
WIN vs Marion Reneau
TKO (punches) R3 1:53 · UFC on ESPN: Makhachev vs. Moises · Jul 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 25 of 64 39% 48 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 65 of 120 54% 110 of 183 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 15 of 37 40% 30 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 25 of 43 58% 34 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:36
2 Miesha Tate 0 8 of 18 44% 16 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 22 of 40 55% 45 of 64 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:01
3 Miesha Tate 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marion Reneau 0 18 of 37 48% 31 of 67 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 25 of 64 39% 16 of 54 7 of 8 2 of 2 15 of 49 7 of 9 3 of 6
Marion Reneau 65 of 120 54% 44 of 93 16 of 20 5 of 7 32 of 74 8 of 8 25 of 38
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 15 of 37 40% 8 of 29 5 of 6 2 of 2 7 of 26 6 of 8 2 of 3
Marion Reneau 25 of 43 58% 15 of 31 9 of 10 1 of 2 19 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 1
2 Miesha Tate 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 3
Marion Reneau 22 of 40 55% 15 of 29 3 of 6 4 of 5 8 of 25 0 of 0 14 of 15
3 Miesha Tate 2 of 9 22% 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Marion Reneau 18 of 37 48% 14 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 12 3 of 3 10 of 22
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Cody is confident in Miesha Tate despite the five-year layoff, citing her excellent physical shape and the fact that Marion Reneau is on a four-fight losing streak and has announced her retirement. He believes Tate's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, and he is surprised the odds are not wider. He acknowledges the red flags but thinks the matchup is favorable.

"Miesha Tate I got it like minus 122 I think minus 135 is still more than fair in this spot."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Paul expresses significant doubts about Miesha Tate's return, citing the five-year layoff, her split with longtime coach Brian Caraway, and her lackluster performances before retiring. He notes that Marion Reneau is durable and has experience, but ultimately he has no confidence in either fighter and passes on betting the fight. He does not make a clear pick.

"I have no confidence on the fight okay so just because dude he just talked about mirror no having a shot doesn't matter okay I'm just either pass."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor · Nov 12, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Raquel Pennington 0 21 of 65 32% 48 of 93 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:26
Miesha Tate 0 43 of 77 55% 111 of 156 1 of 1 100% 3 0 6:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Raquel Pennington 0 7 of 29 24% 12 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:35
Miesha Tate 0 8 of 21 38% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:20
2 Raquel Pennington 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:36
Miesha Tate 0 24 of 37 64% 55 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
3 Raquel Pennington 0 1 of 4 25% 10 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Miesha Tate 0 11 of 19 57% 42 of 55 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Raquel Pennington 21 of 65 32% 8 of 34 11 of 28 2 of 3 11 of 47 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 43 of 77 55% 31 of 65 8 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 46 13 of 15 11 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Raquel Pennington 7 of 29 24% 2 of 13 3 of 13 2 of 3 7 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 8 of 21 38% 7 of 20 0 of 0 1 of 1 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Raquel Pennington 13 of 32 40% 5 of 17 8 of 15 0 of 0 3 of 14 10 of 18 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 24 of 37 64% 16 of 29 8 of 8 0 of 0 11 of 22 13 of 15 0 of 0
3 Raquel Pennington 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 11 of 19 57% 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 16
LOSS vs Amanda Nunes
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:16 · UFC 200: Tate vs. Nunes · Jul 09, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Nunes 0 3 of 15 20% 3 of 15 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:00
Miesha Tate 0 40 of 63 63% 40 of 63 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Nunes 3 of 15 20% 2 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0
Miesha Tate 40 of 63 63% 35 of 54 3 of 5 2 of 4 30 of 50 3 of 5 7 of 8
WIN vs Holly Holm
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R5 3:30 · UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz · Mar 05, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miesha Tate 0 59 of 142 41% 68 of 151 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Holly Holm 0 40 of 104 38% 65 of 132 2 of 9 22% 2 0 5:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 27 25% 7 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Miesha Tate 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 11 of 18 61% 29 of 36 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:30
3 Miesha Tate 0 13 of 41 31% 13 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Holly Holm 0 7 of 23 30% 8 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Miesha Tate 0 14 of 40 35% 22 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Holly Holm 0 7 of 22 31% 12 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:01
5 Miesha Tate 0 17 of 31 54% 18 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Holly Holm 0 8 of 14 57% 9 of 16 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miesha Tate 59 of 142 41% 35 of 109 16 of 21 8 of 12 57 of 139 2 of 3 0 of 0
Holly Holm 40 of 104 38% 29 of 83 7 of 12 4 of 9 26 of 88 4 of 4 10 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miesha Tate 14 of 28 50% 8 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 4 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 27 25% 7 of 23 0 of 2 0 of 2 6 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Miesha Tate 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 11 of 18 61% 10 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 12
3 Miesha Tate 13 of 41 31% 9 of 35 2 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 23 30% 3 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 4 7 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Miesha Tate 14 of 40 35% 8 of 30 3 of 6 3 of 4 12 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Holly Holm 7 of 22 31% 6 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Miesha Tate 17 of 31 54% 10 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0
Holly Holm 8 of 14 57% 3 of 8 3 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Yana Santos

Angelo picks Yana Santos as the underdog, citing her superior striking and footwork. He believes Miesha Tate is one-dimensional and will struggle to get takedowns. He notes that Santos looked good in her last fight and that Tate has not evolved enough to compete. He also mentions a possible spread bet if available.

Interested in +3.5 spread if available
"Jana's the pick. The sport just passes some people by."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Big Brady picks Miesha Tate, citing a clear path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that Yana Santos has poor takedown defense (42%) and looks bad on bottom, as seen against Holly Holm and Ketlen Vieira. Despite Tate's age (38) and inconsistency, her ground game is strong with submissions and ground and pound. He predicts Tate will finish by second-round submission.

Round 2 submission
"I'm going to go Miesa Tate to win this fight. I'll take her to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

Tate should take advantage of Santos's grappling shortcomings. She will mix up takedowns, get top control, and grind out a decision win.

"I believe we're going to see a great performance from Tate here as she should be able to take advantage of some of the grappling shortcomings in Santos's game."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Miesha Tate

The MMA Guru picks Miesha Tate, stating that Yana Santos has shown an inability to do anything on the ground. He believes Tate's wrestling and experience will be enough to outwrestle Santos. He criticizes the state of women's bantamweight but expects Tate to get the win.

"I'm going to go with Misha Tate. She's a favorite as well. So actually it's not that crazy."