UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen Next Fight
Age 30
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 36
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lucas Alexander
4.69 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
2.87 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Steven Peterson
4.76 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
5.94 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
1.42 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Lucas Alexander
Moneyline
FanDuel +138
KO/TKO
BetRivers +540
Submission
FanDuel +900
Decision
BetMGM +350
Steven Peterson
Moneyline
Caesars -155
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +350
Decision
BetWay +240
Lucas Alexander - Fight History
LOSS vs Bogdan Grad
KO R2 4:22 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 46 of 66 69% 59 of 86 3 of 8 37% 0 0 4:18
Lucas Alexander 0 34 of 52 65% 47 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 5 of 9 55% 13 of 20 2 of 7 28% 0 0 1:17
Lucas Alexander 0 15 of 23 65% 28 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:13
2 Bogdan Grad 0 41 of 57 71% 46 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
Lucas Alexander 0 19 of 29 65% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 46 of 66 69% 42 of 60 1 of 2 3 of 4 9 of 18 3 of 4 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 34 of 52 65% 19 of 37 7 of 7 8 of 8 29 of 45 3 of 4 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 5 of 9 55% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 15 of 23 65% 10 of 18 1 of 1 4 of 4 11 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3
2 Bogdan Grad 41 of 57 71% 37 of 52 1 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 10 2 of 3 34 of 44
Lucas Alexander 19 of 29 65% 9 of 19 6 of 6 4 of 4 18 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

Angelo picks Bogdan Grad because of his well-rounded skills, methodical approach, and high finishing rate (11 stoppages in 14 wins). He notes that Lucas Alexander is dangerous but coming off a KO loss to a low-level opponent. He believes Grad's control and pace will be mistaken for inability to finish, but Grad finds finishes without being reckless.

"I am picking Bogden grad here Lucas Alexander is somebody who can be finished I do think Lucas is good though and Lucas can be dangerous I'm going Bogden"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady likes Lucas Alexander's striking and thinks he trains with good guys. He notes Alexander has been submitted three times and has questionable takedown defense, but believes Alexander will piece up Bogdan Grad across three rounds. Grad is tough and has heart but is a walking punching bag. Brady would have liked Alexander more at +170 but thinks pick 'em is about accurate.

"I'm leaning Alexander here I don't think grad's gonna have a ton of success with the wrestling maybe he can mix in a takedown here or there but I do think it's going to be Alexander just pretty much piecing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander's Muay Thai striking and ability to fight from both stances will allow him to pick apart Grad's erratic style. Grad's explosivity and grappling may cause early trouble, but Alexander's technical striking and work off the back foot should secure a decision win.

"Alexander fighting from both stances and well off of his back foot will do a good enough job in terms of striking straight down the pipe against the more erratic style of Grad and that will lead to him picking …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Bogdan Grad

The MMA Guru picks Bogdan Grad, believing he is good enough on the feet to hang with Lucas Alexander and will have a takedown threat advantage. He notes Alexander is coming off a first-round TKO loss and has been out for over a year. He thinks Grad can get the job done early.

"I'm actually going to go with Bogdan grad... I think the takedown threat's going to be there and I think it's in advantage of him"
LOSS vs Jeka Saragih
KO (punches) R1 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jeka Saragih 1 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 16 68% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jeka Saragih 4 of 9 44% 3 of 6 1 of 2 0 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lucas Alexander 11 of 16 68% 6 of 10 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Angelo picks Lucas Alexander, citing his superior technique, BJJ, and high-level experience. He notes that both fighters have one-punch power but believes Lucas is better everywhere. He mentions the odds at 3-to-1 seem a little wide because Jeka could end it at any moment, but still expects Lucas to win.

Odds comment: 3-to-1 on Lucas seems a little wide
"Lucas Alexander is going to be better here he's just going to be the better fighter he's going to have the same power as Jaa but better technique better BJJ more highlevel experience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Big Brady notes that Saragih looked terrible against Anshul Jubilee and that Alexander has heavy kicks, including breaking someone's arm. He thinks Alexander is the much better striker and will break Saragih down with leg kicks, leading to an attritional TKO. He predicts a third-round knockout, noting Saragih is dangerous early but Alexander has never been knocked out.

"I'm going to take Lucas Alexander to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody picks Lucas Alexander confidently, citing his performance against Steve Peterson and Saragih's poor showing against Anheliger. He notes Saragih's one-dimensional striking and poor wrestling. Alexander is stronger, more dynamic, and can win by striking or grappling.

"Lucas Alexander absolutely rolles seems pretty clear to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Alexander is a technical striker with good anticipation and counter striking. He uses calf kicks and accurate punches to pick apart opponents. Saragih is reckless and lacks technical acumen, though he has durability. Alexander will chip away from distance and land big shots, likely winning by decision. Saragih's recklessness could lead to a knockout, but Alexander's power may not finish him.

"give me Lucas Alexander and I think he wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Paul picks Alexander, noting Saragih's flat-footed style and poor takedown defense. He believes Alexander's power and grappling will be too much. Paul thinks Saragih's only chance is a puncher's chance, but Alexander is the better fighter.

"I'm gonna take Lucas Alexander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih, despite admitting he doubted Alexander early in his career. He criticizes Saragih as a 'diversity hire' who lost in the Road to UFC tournament final but got into the UFC anyway. He notes Alexander's reach and height advantage and expects him to score a decision win by keeping the fight rangy.

"I'm going to go Lucas Alexander... reach advantage, height advantage, going to keep it rangy on the feet, I reckon he'll be able to score his way to a decision win 30-27."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Alexander 0 26 of 101 25% 27 of 102 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:31
Steven Peterson 1 85 of 158 53% 86 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Lucas Alexander 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Steven Peterson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Lucas Alexander 0 7 of 36 19% 8 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Steven Peterson 1 34 of 63 53% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Alexander 26 of 101 25% 8 of 67 9 of 18 9 of 16 25 of 99 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 85 of 158 53% 43 of 108 20 of 27 22 of 23 78 of 142 1 of 1 6 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Alexander 11 of 34 32% 2 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 10 10 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 41 58% 12 of 26 5 of 7 7 of 8 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lucas Alexander 8 of 31 25% 4 of 23 1 of 4 3 of 4 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 27 of 54 50% 10 of 35 6 of 8 11 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lucas Alexander 7 of 36 19% 2 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 34 of 63 53% 21 of 47 9 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 15
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

"Stephen Peterson's going to be the pick but at no offense to Steve Peterson because this guy's great I can't trust him with my money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Peterson by submission in round 3
"I'm gonna say Peterson by submission I think that could be a sneaky way to look at it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Fight goes to decision
"If I needed to squeeze another Underdog I feel like I would take that shot on Lucas Alexander"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm going to take Peterson too."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

"Stephen Peterson should be the play he should be able to out tough this guy do what he does throw volume in his face."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

"I expect the speed slick striking in calf kicking game of Lucas Alexander to come through in this matchup and get his hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

"I'm going with Stephen Peterson here... I actually like Stephen Peterson here to drag this into deep Waters have a scrap with Lucas Alexander and win this fight by like 30 27 30-26 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Odds: Peterson opened at -170, currently -164; Alexander opened at +145, currently +133. Zane thinks the odds are about right.
"I'm kind of inclined to pick Peterson for like the veteran pace fighter pick."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:02 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Joanderson Brito 0 4 of 8 50% 7 of 11 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:25
Lucas Alexander 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Joanderson Brito 4 of 8 50% 2 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 4 4 of 4 0 of 0
Lucas Alexander 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Alexander vs. Joanderson Brito
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brito (-350), Alexander (+255)

Round 1
The action ticks up one notch as we move to the featherweight division. After a veritable revolving door of opponents, heavy-handed Brazilian finisher Brito (13-3-1, 1-1 UFC) now squares off against fellow countryman Alexander (7-2, 0-0 UFC) in the latter’s UFC debut. While both are the same age, Brito holds greater high-level experience, having fought up through the LFA to DWCS and then the UFC. Meanwhile, his opponent comes in on a five-fight win streak, with most of those victories coming in Florida-based leagues. The third man in the Octagon is referee Chris Tognoni, and there is a touch of gloves to get things started. Brito immediately starts racing forward, and he wings a low kick that comes up short. Alexander responds with one that lands, but he already finds himself backed up to the cage and ducking a haymaker. Brito bears down on him and loads up on right hands, and he ducks a head kick by a matter of millimeters and allows Alexander to fall to the mat. Brito lifts his man up and slams him down, and then does this a second time when Alexander gets to his knees. Brito knees the thigh a few times before scooping “The Lion” up and dropping him down once more. When Alexander moves back to his feet, Brito jumps on his back to serve as a malicious backpack, while setting up some form of a rear-naked choke.
Brito tightens his legs around the waist and switches his arms to sink his right forearm under the chin. The choke is instantly tight and Brito has plenty of energy to crush it like a vice, and he drags the newcomer from behind down to the ground to make the submission purely academic. Barely one second after they hit the mat, and Alexander taps out frantically from the maneuver, as he would likely go out if the grip remained tight for too much longer.
Tubular work for "Tubarao" Brito, who now posts an even number of knockouts and submissions on his ledger while lifting his finish rate above 85%.

The Official Result
Joanderson Brito def. Lucas Alexander R1 2:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Cody picks Brito confidently, noting he is a powerhouse and coming off a career-best win. He points out that Alexander has missed weight multiple times and is taking the fight on short notice, which could affect his performance. He expects Brito to press forward and score takedowns.

"burrito's got this one so sign me up for Joe Anderson."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

Paul also picks Brito, noting he is a solid prospect and Alexander is a late replacement with questionable credentials. He thinks Brito's aggression and takedowns will be too much, and Alexander may struggle to make weight.

"I'd be surprised if you're picking the other side... Brito is an absolute Powerhouse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Joanderson Brito

The MMA Guru picks Joanderson Brito by first-round KO, citing his full camp and the short-notice replacement Lucas Alexander. He believes Alexander will be overly aggressive early, which will be his downfall against Brito. He notes that Brito's win over Andre Fili has aged well, and he trusts Brito's power and timing.

prediction: first-round KO
"first round KO for Joe Anderson Brita I really do"
Steven Peterson - Fight History
LOSS vs Lucas Alexander
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Alexander 0 26 of 101 25% 27 of 102 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:31
Steven Peterson 1 85 of 158 53% 86 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Alexander 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 41 58% 24 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Lucas Alexander 0 8 of 31 25% 8 of 31 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
Steven Peterson 0 27 of 54 50% 27 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
3 Lucas Alexander 0 7 of 36 19% 8 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Steven Peterson 1 34 of 63 53% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Alexander 26 of 101 25% 8 of 67 9 of 18 9 of 16 25 of 99 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 85 of 158 53% 43 of 108 20 of 27 22 of 23 78 of 142 1 of 1 6 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Alexander 11 of 34 32% 2 of 18 4 of 6 5 of 10 10 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 41 58% 12 of 26 5 of 7 7 of 8 24 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lucas Alexander 8 of 31 25% 4 of 23 1 of 4 3 of 4 8 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 27 of 54 50% 10 of 35 6 of 8 11 of 11 27 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Lucas Alexander 7 of 36 19% 2 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 34 of 63 53% 21 of 47 9 of 12 4 of 4 27 of 47 1 of 1 6 of 15
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

"Stephen Peterson's going to be the pick but at no offense to Steve Peterson because this guy's great I can't trust him with my money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Peterson by submission in round 3
"I'm gonna say Peterson by submission I think that could be a sneaky way to look at it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Fight goes to decision
"If I needed to squeeze another Underdog I feel like I would take that shot on Lucas Alexander"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm going to take Peterson too."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

"Stephen Peterson should be the play he should be able to out tough this guy do what he does throw volume in his face."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

"I expect the speed slick striking in calf kicking game of Lucas Alexander to come through in this matchup and get his hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

"I'm going with Stephen Peterson here... I actually like Stephen Peterson here to drag this into deep Waters have a scrap with Lucas Alexander and win this fight by like 30 27 30-26 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Odds: Peterson opened at -170, currently -164; Alexander opened at +145, currently +133. Zane thinks the odds are about right.
"I'm kind of inclined to pick Peterson for like the veteran pace fighter pick."
LOSS vs Julian Erosa
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julian Erosa 0 155 of 291 53% 163 of 300 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:52
Steven Peterson 0 148 of 247 59% 174 of 276 0 of 2 0% 2 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julian Erosa 0 45 of 96 46% 49 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 39 of 71 54% 41 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Julian Erosa 0 48 of 103 46% 50 of 105 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:12
Steven Peterson 0 59 of 96 61% 63 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
3 Julian Erosa 0 62 of 92 67% 64 of 95 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:40
Steven Peterson 0 50 of 80 62% 70 of 103 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julian Erosa 155 of 291 53% 120 of 242 30 of 43 5 of 6 141 of 270 9 of 16 5 of 5
Steven Peterson 148 of 247 59% 113 of 204 15 of 17 20 of 26 133 of 227 15 of 19 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julian Erosa 45 of 96 46% 35 of 84 7 of 9 3 of 3 43 of 94 2 of 2 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 39 of 71 54% 22 of 48 3 of 4 14 of 19 37 of 69 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julian Erosa 48 of 103 46% 40 of 87 7 of 14 1 of 2 42 of 92 6 of 11 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 59 of 96 61% 48 of 83 8 of 9 3 of 4 49 of 83 10 of 13 0 of 0
3 Julian Erosa 62 of 92 67% 45 of 71 16 of 20 1 of 1 56 of 84 1 of 3 5 of 5
Steven Peterson 50 of 80 62% 43 of 73 4 of 4 3 of 3 47 of 75 3 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Angelo picks Julian Erosa for his violent striking and volume. He notes Erosa is hittable but has a solid chin, and his range striking should outwork Peterson. Peterson is tough and willing to take risks, but Erosa's pressure and volume are key. Angelo expects a fun brawl with Erosa getting the win.

"i do like irosa to push the axe and stay in peterson's face and get it done in a fun ugly brawl"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Cody is high on Erosa, noting his deep gas tank, volume striking, and improved wrestling. He points out that Erosa has been an underdog in his recent wins and has shown he can take a punch and come back. He thinks Peterson's only path is a knockout, but Peterson doesn't have that power. He is confident Erosa wins but understands the price is steep.

"it all adds up to a julian erosive play but yeah minus 300 for a guy with his history i completely understand"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Daniel Levi picks Julian Erosa but calls it a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Erosa has been dropped in every fight but often comes back to win. Peterson is a tough veteran who can knock people out, but he gets hit a lot. Levi thinks Erosa's volume and reach advantage will lead to target practice, but he's worried about Peterson's power. He says the pick is Erosa but advises against betting the -310 line.

"my pick is a rosa but at the betting window this is a dogger pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Lock of the Night picks Erosa, citing his stylistic advantage with range and kicks. He notes Peterson's durability but believes Erosa can stick and move for a decision. He references the Caceres fight as a blueprint. He likes Erosa by decision at +150.

Erosa by decision +150
"i feel good about a roast on the spot... great stylistic matchup for him"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

Paul thinks Erosa is way better than Peterson. He notes Erosa's length, volume, and improved grappling. He acknowledges Erosa has chin issues but believes Peterson doesn't have the power to exploit that. He is confident Erosa wins but says the minus 300 price is too high to bet.

"i think a rosso wins but you basically you set yourself an early grave if you are getting too invested in juicy j at minus 300"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Julian Erosa

The MMA Guru picks Julian Erosa, noting his wins have aged well and he is 'really about that life'. He expects Erosa to land body shots and knees, leading to a bad takedown from Peterson and a d'arce choke submission in the third round. He references Erosa's previous third-round choke win over Charles Jourdain.

submission, round 3, d'arce choke
"i'm going to go with julian arose... i think he gets this one done big shots body shots knees to the body front kicks on stephen peterson eventually steven peterson shoots a bad takedown gets darsh choked"
WIN vs Chase Hooper
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Jun 12, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steven Peterson 0 31 of 61 50% 98 of 132 3 of 8 37% 2 1 2:55
Chase Hooper 0 49 of 68 72% 102 of 124 1 of 1 100% 2 0 7:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steven Peterson 0 13 of 24 54% 17 of 28 1 of 3 33% 2 1 1:15
Chase Hooper 0 24 of 32 75% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
2 Steven Peterson 0 11 of 18 61% 35 of 45 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:41
Chase Hooper 0 14 of 21 66% 36 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:30
3 Steven Peterson 0 7 of 19 36% 46 of 59 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:59
Chase Hooper 0 11 of 15 73% 32 of 37 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steven Peterson 31 of 61 50% 21 of 51 9 of 9 1 of 1 28 of 55 0 of 0 3 of 6
Chase Hooper 49 of 68 72% 38 of 56 8 of 9 3 of 3 19 of 37 5 of 5 25 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steven Peterson 13 of 24 54% 9 of 20 3 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 18 0 of 0 3 of 6
Chase Hooper 24 of 32 75% 19 of 27 3 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 16 of 17
2 Steven Peterson 11 of 18 61% 8 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 14 of 21 66% 12 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 9
3 Steven Peterson 7 of 19 36% 4 of 16 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 11 of 15 73% 7 of 11 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson, emphasizing Peterson's 75% takedown defense and strong get-up game, which should neutralize Hooper's grappling. He notes Hooper's poor takedown accuracy (7%) and striking defense, and believes Peterson will out-strike Hooper on the feet. He expects a decision win.

Peterson by decision
"I will take peterson to win i'm taking a win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Cody picks Peterson, citing his experience, takedown defense, and wild striking that will be effective against Hooper. He thinks Hooper is too green and one-dimensional, and that Peterson will win by decision or TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds
"i think it's steven stephen ocho peterson"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi picks Chase Hooper, despite acknowledging Hooper's poor striking and being a punching bag. He notes that Hooper has a path to victory by using his length and kicks to keep Peterson at range, and that Hooper has been training with Wonderboy Thompson. Levi is underwhelmed by Peterson's tape and thinks Hooper's toughness and submission ability could be factors. He admits Peterson has more experience but trusts Hooper's improvements.

"i might actually go with hooper on this one man i think he just lands the more effective strikes at range"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2021 (fight day)
Steven Peterson

Peterson is a veteran with superior striking and serviceable takedown defense. Hooper is still green and relies on jiu-jitsu, but Peterson has never been submitted in his career. Peterson should keep the fight standing and outpoint Hooper, likely winning a decision. Hooper's durability means a finish is unlikely.

Peterson by decision (+210)
"I think he's striking is much better than Chase Hooper's... his takedown defense is serviceable... I'll go with Stephen Peterson and I'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 9, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Paul picks Peterson but is not betting it. He thinks Hooper's striking is a massive work in progress and Peterson's durability and experience will be key. He likes the over 2.5 rounds as a safer play.

over 2.5 rounds
"i'll pick stephen ocho peterson my favorite bet on it is the over two and a half rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Chase Hooper

The MMA Guru picks Chase Hooper, believing Peterson is the best possible matchup for him due to Peterson's lack of KO power and recent inactivity. He compares Hooper's style to Luis Pena, who beat Peterson, and notes Hooper's improvements and youth. He predicts a submission win in the second round, citing Peterson's vulnerability to submissions as seen in the Pena fight.

submission in the second round
"i feel like chase hooper is a little bit underrated"
WIN vs Martin Bravo
KO (spinning backfist) R2 1:31 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · Sep 21, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steven Peterson 0 86 of 199 43% 93 of 206 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:38
Martin Bravo 1 49 of 105 46% 53 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steven Peterson 0 69 of 159 43% 74 of 164 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:25
Martin Bravo 0 35 of 75 46% 39 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Steven Peterson 0 17 of 40 42% 19 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:13
Martin Bravo 1 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steven Peterson 86 of 199 43% 60 of 157 20 of 33 6 of 9 85 of 198 1 of 1 0 of 0
Martin Bravo 49 of 105 46% 33 of 84 12 of 17 4 of 4 46 of 98 1 of 2 2 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steven Peterson 69 of 159 43% 48 of 123 15 of 27 6 of 9 69 of 159 0 of 0 0 of 0
Martin Bravo 35 of 75 46% 20 of 56 11 of 15 4 of 4 35 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 3
2 Steven Peterson 17 of 40 42% 12 of 34 5 of 6 0 of 0 16 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Martin Bravo 14 of 30 46% 13 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 1 of 2 2 of 2
LOSS vs Alex Caceres
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Caceres 0 94 of 197 47% 95 of 198 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 67 of 218 30% 87 of 241 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Caceres 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 19 of 54 35% 25 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
2 Alex Caceres 0 43 of 74 58% 43 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 87 27% 25 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alex Caceres 0 31 of 82 37% 32 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 24 of 77 31% 37 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Caceres 94 of 197 47% 63 of 154 27 of 39 4 of 4 91 of 194 3 of 3 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 67 of 218 30% 41 of 171 13 of 32 13 of 15 65 of 214 0 of 0 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Caceres 20 of 41 48% 14 of 31 4 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 19 of 54 35% 9 of 38 3 of 8 7 of 8 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alex Caceres 43 of 74 58% 30 of 60 11 of 12 2 of 2 40 of 71 3 of 3 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 87 27% 16 of 70 4 of 13 4 of 4 24 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alex Caceres 31 of 82 37% 19 of 63 12 of 19 0 of 0 31 of 82 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 24 of 77 31% 16 of 63 6 of 11 2 of 3 22 of 73 0 of 0 2 of 4
LOSS vs Luis Peña
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Mar 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luis Peña 0 52 of 112 46% 66 of 127 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Steven Peterson 0 34 of 85 40% 57 of 109 4 of 8 50% 1 0 5:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luis Peña 0 16 of 29 55% 21 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:14
Steven Peterson 0 13 of 31 41% 21 of 40 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:18
2 Luis Peña 0 23 of 57 40% 26 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Steven Peterson 0 14 of 41 34% 20 of 47 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:30
3 Luis Peña 0 13 of 26 50% 19 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 1 2:11
Steven Peterson 0 7 of 13 53% 16 of 22 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luis Peña 52 of 112 46% 43 of 102 9 of 10 0 of 0 36 of 83 12 of 24 4 of 5
Steven Peterson 34 of 85 40% 15 of 63 9 of 12 10 of 10 27 of 75 7 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luis Peña 16 of 29 55% 13 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 7 of 11 2 of 2
Steven Peterson 13 of 31 41% 2 of 18 5 of 7 6 of 6 10 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luis Peña 23 of 57 40% 19 of 52 4 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 46 3 of 11 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 14 of 41 34% 8 of 34 3 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Luis Peña 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3
Steven Peterson 7 of 13 53% 5 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Matt Bessette
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Jul 06, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Steven Peterson 0 57 of 141 40% 88 of 177 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:33
Matt Bessette 0 74 of 175 42% 115 of 220 2 of 6 33% 1 1 7:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Steven Peterson 0 25 of 60 41% 38 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:12
Matt Bessette 0 22 of 60 36% 32 of 70 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:21
2 Steven Peterson 0 28 of 69 40% 33 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Matt Bessette 0 38 of 89 42% 42 of 93 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:54
3 Steven Peterson 0 4 of 12 33% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:21
Matt Bessette 0 14 of 26 53% 41 of 57 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Steven Peterson 57 of 141 40% 42 of 121 12 of 15 3 of 5 45 of 125 10 of 14 2 of 2
Matt Bessette 74 of 175 42% 44 of 141 19 of 23 11 of 11 46 of 136 16 of 25 12 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Steven Peterson 25 of 60 41% 17 of 50 6 of 8 2 of 2 19 of 51 4 of 7 2 of 2
Matt Bessette 22 of 60 36% 9 of 46 7 of 8 6 of 6 17 of 48 5 of 12 0 of 0
2 Steven Peterson 28 of 69 40% 22 of 60 5 of 6 1 of 3 24 of 64 4 of 5 0 of 0
Matt Bessette 38 of 89 42% 28 of 77 5 of 7 5 of 5 26 of 74 5 of 7 7 of 8
3 Steven Peterson 4 of 12 33% 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Matt Bessette 14 of 26 53% 7 of 18 7 of 8 0 of 0 3 of 14 6 of 6 5 of 6
LOSS vs Brandon Davis
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Medeiros · Feb 18, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Davis 0 73 of 286 25% 82 of 296 1 of 10 10% 0 0 1:49
Steven Peterson 0 114 of 285 40% 119 of 291 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Davis 0 26 of 109 23% 26 of 109 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Steven Peterson 0 39 of 106 36% 39 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Davis 0 20 of 72 27% 29 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:40
Steven Peterson 0 28 of 70 40% 33 of 76 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:39
3 Brandon Davis 0 27 of 105 25% 27 of 105 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:09
Steven Peterson 0 47 of 109 43% 47 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Davis 73 of 286 25% 55 of 257 12 of 18 6 of 11 65 of 271 6 of 12 2 of 3
Steven Peterson 114 of 285 40% 83 of 243 12 of 19 19 of 23 108 of 278 6 of 6 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Davis 26 of 109 23% 17 of 97 5 of 5 4 of 7 26 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 39 of 106 36% 19 of 80 6 of 10 14 of 16 39 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Davis 20 of 72 27% 12 of 60 7 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 58 6 of 11 2 of 3
Steven Peterson 28 of 70 40% 24 of 64 3 of 3 1 of 3 23 of 64 5 of 5 0 of 1
3 Brandon Davis 27 of 105 25% 26 of 100 0 of 3 1 of 2 27 of 104 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Peterson 47 of 109 43% 40 of 99 3 of 6 4 of 4 46 of 108 1 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Angelo picks Peterson, citing his toughness and relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson is never the more skilled fighter but makes up for it with grit. He thinks Peterson will frustrate Alexander, who may not handle the constant forward pressure. However, he says he cannot trust Peterson with his money because he puts himself in danger and could get caught.

"Stephen Peterson's going to be the pick but at no offense to Steve Peterson because this guy's great I can't trust him with my money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Big Brady picks Steven Peterson by submission, calling it a sneaky way to attack the fight. He notes Peterson's ability to get takedowns and his submission skills (42% of wins by sub), though he hasn't submitted anyone in the UFC. Brady thinks Peterson has more ways to win, especially if he gets the fight to the mat, and predicts a third-round submission. He acknowledges Alexander's striking advantage on the feet but favors Peterson's toughness and experience.

Peterson by submission in round 3
"I'm gonna say Peterson by submission I think that could be a sneaky way to look at it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

Cody leans towards Alexander as a dog, citing his kickboxing advantage and physicality. He notes Peterson is a forward-pressure fighter but not high-level, and that Alexander could have more time to work in his comfort zone. He expects a close, possibly split decision, and sees value in the plus money.

Fight goes to decision
"If I needed to squeeze another Underdog I feel like I would take that shot on Lucas Alexander"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Connor also picks Steven Peterson, agreeing with Zane that Alexander is too inexperienced to handle Peterson's relentless pressure. He notes that Peterson's technical flaws don't matter if he just keeps coming, and that Alexander has shown he can be cornered and flustered. Connor says he would not be shocked if Alexander wins by landing a big shot, but he sees Peterson as the more reliable pick given Alexander's rawness.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think I'm going to take Peterson too."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Jacob picks Peterson but is not confident, noting that Peterson's toughness is his main attribute. He thinks Peterson should out-tough Alexander but that Alexander is dangerous and could land a big shot. He says there are better places to put money on this card.

"Stephen Peterson should be the play he should be able to out tough this guy do what he does throw volume in his face."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lucas Alexander

The host is surprised to see Alexander as an underdog, believing his speed, slick striking, and calf kicking game will be too much for Peterson. He notes Alexander's performance against Jacob Kilburn showed he can pick apart a similar gritty opponent. He expects Alexander to win by decision, as Peterson is tough to put away.

"I expect the speed slick striking in calf kicking game of Lucas Alexander to come through in this matchup and get his hand raised"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

The Guru picks Peterson, calling it a lock. He criticizes Alexander's lack of finishing ability and poor performance against Britto. He highlights Peterson's durability (only finished once in 2013) and expects a dominant decision win.

"I'm going with Stephen Peterson here... I actually like Stephen Peterson here to drag this into deep Waters have a scrap with Lucas Alexander and win this fight by like 30 27 30-26 decision"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Steven Peterson

Zane picks Steven Peterson because he sees Lucas Alexander as a raw, undercooked fighter who lacks fight management and is easily overwhelmed by relentless pressure. Peterson is insanely durable and aggressive, and Zane believes his veteran pace and toughness will be too much for Alexander, who has shown he can be backed up and flustered. Zane notes that if Alexander wins, it would prove something he hasn't seen yet, whereas a Peterson win would just be expected.

Odds: Peterson opened at -170, currently -164; Alexander opened at +145, currently +133. Zane thinks the odds are about right.
"I'm kind of inclined to pick Peterson for like the veteran pace fighter pick."